Your Natural Max Is Lower Than You Think — Transcript

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1. 0:00Fitness lore says that for men our maximum muscular potential
2. 0:04is a fat-free mass index of 25.
3. 0:07The fat-free mass index is basically the bodybuilding equivalent of BMI,
4. 0:11body mass index.
5. 0:12It’s fat-free mass divided by height squared.
6. 0:15Don't worry, you won't have to do any math in this video.
7. 0:20The ceiling of 25
8. 0:21comes from a 1995 paper, which found that
9. 0:24none of even their most well trained athletes and bodybuilders
10. 0:29that were actually natural exceeded a fat-free mass index of 25.
11. 0:34It seemed like a hard limit based on just those data,
12. 0:37however, this was based on a convenient sample of just 74 lifters.
13. 0:42No matter how well trained they were, it's very unlikely that the maximum muscular
14. 0:47human potential will be found in a sample of 74 people.
15. 0:50What everyone ignored
16. 0:51is that the same paper also reported the fat-free mass indices
17. 0:55of the Mr. America winners from before steroids were in use.
18. 0:59In this sample the average fat-free mass index was actually 25.4,
19. 1:04and many of these lifters thus clearly exceeded the supposed limit of 25.
20. 1:10In fact, the highest reported value was 27.7 by George Eiferman,
21. 1:16the 1948 winner of the Mr. America contest.
22. 1:20I would note
23. 1:20that 1948 is a little bit sus, but the general consensus among historians
24. 1:25is that steroids were only widely in use from about 1950 onwards.
25. 1:30Now, in 2026, and new scientific review has reevaluated
26. 1:34the question of what the natty max actually is for both men and women.
27. 1:39They found that in drug tested athletes fat-free mass indices
28. 1:43well over 25 have been reported in multiple papers.
29. 1:46In fact, the highest purported value was 31.7,
30. 1:50with the 97th percentile being 28.5.
31. 1:55Personally, I'm very skeptical of these new data
32. 1:57because drug tested does absolutely not mean lifetime natural.
33. 2:01We recently saw how “The Juiced-up Olympics” basically failed
34. 2:04to beat all of the limits from the supposedly natural Olympics,
35. 2:08or at least the drug tested Olympics,
36. 2:10and as an industry insider, I can tell you that being doped
37. 2:14is not the exception, but it is absolutely the norm.
38. 2:17In fact, it's widely known among athletes, and it's a statistical fact
39. 2:21in a large sample that if you want to be the top of the top of the top,
40. 2:24you have to do everything right.
41. 2:26“Right” being in this case, everything that it takes to build muscle mass,
42. 2:29and that includes doping.
43. 2:31My skepticism of the new data aside, if we combine the new data
44. 2:35with the old data from
45. 2:36Mr. America winners, especially those from the 1930s, who are almost
46. 2:39surely natural, natty max estimate of 28.5 is not unreasonable.
47. 2:44However, it's important to realize that these data are probabilistic.
48. 2:49Our natty max follows a normal distribution.
49. 2:52That means that in this case,
50. 2:53what the researchers called our natty max is the 97th percentile.
51. 2:57This does not mean it's an absolute limit.
52. 2:59In fact, it means, by definition, that about 3% of individuals
53. 3:03could conceivably exceed this limit, even 28.5.
54. 3:07Genetic outliers are a real thing.
55. 3:10At the same time, it also means that us mortals with average genetics, or around
56. 3:1450 percentile genetics, can only expect a fat-free mass
57. 3:18index of about 23, based on the researchers data.
58. 3:21Genetics can make an absolutely monumental difference, even larger than the effect
59. 3:25of steroids in many cases.
60. 3:27By social media standards our factory mass index of 23
61. 3:30might seem paltry, a true disappointment for the end of your fitness journey.
62. 3:34However, if you're lucky, you'll end up looking like Steve Reeves.
63. 3:38Esthetics legend Steve Reeves actually had a fat-free mass index
64. 3:41of only 23. So if you're lucky, and you have God tier bone structure,
65. 3:46you'll look like him.
66. 3:47If you're less lucky, you'll look like me.
67. 3:48My fat-free mass index in contest shape was 23.6.
68. 3:52I do suspect Steve's fat-free mass index was actually closer to 25,
69. 3:56because his body fat was tested by calipers,
70. 3:58but then again he wasn't that lean.
71. 4:00And we know that as you get leaner, your fat-free mass index potential decreases.
72. 4:04For the ladies, I suspect I have better news.
73. 4:06The natural maximum muscular potential of men
74. 4:08and women seems to be the same, at least in relative terms.
75. 4:12However, women obviously start off with around 30% less fat-free mass index.
76. 4:17That means that their natty Max is not 28.5, but 23.5,
77. 4:22with most women that have more average genetics ending up closer to 20.
78. 4:26If you're interested what your drug-free maximum muscular potential
79. 4:30likely is, I've made a calculator for you on my website.
80. 4:33The calculator relies on two key inputs.
81. 4:35Based on research,
82. 4:36there are two clear determinants of your natty max:
83. 4:40your body fat percentage and your frame size.
84. 4:43Body fat percentage
85. 4:44is commonly ignored in these discussions, and also in the research
86. 4:47on the new athletes having a fat-free mass index, sometimes over 30,
87. 4:51these are often American football players that are much higher in body fat level.
88. 4:55Sumo wrestlers, in fact,
89. 4:56have some of the highest fat-free mass indices that we see in the literature.
90. 5:00However, they don't look that muscular because they're also quite fat.
91. 5:03The cleanest comparison, and therefore the most reliable estimate,
92. 5:06is when you are in contest shape, or at least the contest shape
93. 5:09of the Mr. America winners from the 1930s and 40s.
94. 5:12Skeletal frame size is also incredibly important.
95. 5:15Your skeletal frame size functions essentially like a coat rack
96. 5:18that determines how much clothes you can put on the frame,
97. 5:22or in our case, how much muscle you can put on the skeleton.
98. 5:25Now, before you use the calculator a word of warning.
99. 5:28Most people want to know their natty max for the wrong reasons.
100. 5:31They want to see if someone is natural, or they want to see how they do
101. 5:34in comparison.
102. 5:35It's like a school when someone asks: “How did you do on your test?”
103. 5:38Most people aren't actually interested in how the other person did.
104. 5:41They're interested in how they did in comparison.
105. 5:43But comparison is the thief of joy.
106. 5:46What research finds is that when you have a performance mindset or a goal
107. 5:51relative to someone else, that often doesn't lead to long term happiness.
108. 5:55Instead, what you want is a growth mindset.
109. 5:57In our case, literally a growth mindset
110. 5:59in terms of muscle growth, but also psychologically
111. 6:01a growth mindset in terms of self-improvement, personal development.
112. 6:05You want to be better than you were before.
113. 6:08So all that really matters is where you were before, where you are now,
114. 6:12and that you are moving in the right direction.
115. 6:14These are the things that ultimately matter for you, not so much
116. 6:18how muscular someone else is, because that is outside of your control.
117. 6:21So it is best to focus on your own development and to see your natty max
118. 6:25estimate merely as a rough guideline of where you could possibly end up at,
119. 6:31with the most actionable implementation of that being how advanced you
120. 6:34currently are.
121. 6:35It gives you the best estimate of whether you are currently a novice,
122. 6:39intermediate, or advanced lifter, which actually has implications
123. 6:42for how you should train.
124. 6:44Beyond that, it is mostly just a number that doesn't
125. 6:47actually change what you should be doing to get more muscular and leaner.
126. 6:51All that said, the link to the calculator
127. 6:52should be popping up on your screen right about now,
128. 6:54and you can also find it in the description.
129. 6:57I hope this video helps you with your fitness journey.
130. 7:00See you next time!