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You Will Never Win At Trading Until You Do This ( 30 Minute Fix ) — Transcript

by The Rumers · 5,773 words · 822 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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  1. 0:00You know, I hate to put you on the spot
  2. 0:01like this, but let me ask you a
  3. 0:03question.
  4. 0:04How long has it been?
  5. 0:06How many months or even years have you
  6. 0:08been trying to become a profitable
  7. 0:09trader?
  8. 0:11Better than that, let me ask you this.
  9. 0:13How many videos have you watched? How
  10. 0:15many courses have you bought? How many
  11. 0:17strategies have you tried? How many
  12. 0:20hours have you poured into trading only
  13. 0:22to remain stuck? It's like this whole
  14. 0:25entire experience feels like you've been
  15. 0:26rowing a boat with its anchor down.
  16. 0:29Except for in this case, you don't know
  17. 0:31it's an anchor. You know something is
  18. 0:33there that's holding you down, you just
  19. 0:35don't know what it is. So, you keep on
  20. 0:36paddling the boat harder and harder
  21. 0:38going nowhere faster. And look, I
  22. 0:41totally get it. I went through the exact
  23. 0:43same thing 20-plus years ago when I
  24. 0:44started trading. The more my knowledge
  25. 0:47went up, the faster my account balance
  26. 0:50went down. And it's not supposed to be
  27. 0:52like that. But unfortunately for most of
  28. 0:55us, it is. So, if this is something that
  29. 0:58you've been going through, let me tell
  30. 0:59you why that happens and how you and I
  31. 1:01are going to fix it. You see, the reason
  32. 1:04this happens is no matter what trading
  33. 1:05strategy that you have learned or will
  34. 1:07attempt to learn in the future, no
  35. 1:09matter how good it sounds on paper, no
  36. 1:11matter how potent it's been in the hands
  37. 1:12of another trader, it is only average at
  38. 1:16best. That is unless you stack three
  39. 1:19pieces of context behind that strategy.
  40. 1:22If you don't use these three pieces of
  41. 1:24context, you will never win at trading,
  42. 1:28no matter how hard you work, no matter
  43. 1:31how bad you want it, you will continue
  44. 1:34to remain stuck and frustrated rowing
  45. 1:37that boat faster and faster going
  46. 1:39nowhere. And that is not why you got
  47. 1:41into trading. Now, if you don't know who
  48. 1:43I am, my name is Doug, and I've been a
  49. 1:45professional trader now for 26 years. In
  50. 1:47today's video, I want to share with you
  51. 1:48the three most important pieces of
  52. 1:50context that you must put behind every
  53. 1:52trading strategy. And I want you to
  54. 1:54specifically pay attention to number
  55. 1:56three, because it's the biggest mistake
  56. 1:58that most traders make and most of them
  57. 2:00don't even know it. Now, before I get
  58. 2:02into that part, I want you to know
  59. 2:03something. Talk is cheap in this
  60. 2:05industry. I am going to shoot this video
  61. 2:08completely live, unscripted, and uncut.
  62. 2:12No hindsight here. That way you will
  63. 2:14know for sure whether or not these
  64. 2:17pieces of context can help you get to
  65. 2:19the next level as a trader. So, on that
  66. 2:21note, let's go ahead and get started
  67. 2:23with today's video.
  68. 2:26So, let's begin with just the charting
  69. 2:28that I'm using here just so we're all on
  70. 2:29the same page with that. I'm using
  71. 2:31ThinkorSwim since we're trading live
  72. 2:32today. And what you see here on the
  73. 2:34screen is exactly what I've been using
  74. 2:36over the last two decades, a two-chart
  75. 2:38format, a shorter-term chart on the top
  76. 2:41which happens to be the 5-minute. I
  77. 2:43often toggle between that and a
  78. 2:4415-minute
  79. 2:46for entries and to get other data, which
  80. 2:48we'll talk about in a second as well,
  81. 2:50and a daily chart down bottom. This is
  82. 2:52how I've been doing it for two decades,
  83. 2:53like I said, and I'm starting today with
  84. 2:55YM because I think this is what we're
  85. 2:57going to trade, which I'll discuss that
  86. 2:58as well. So, let's begin with number
  87. 3:00one. Number one thing that you need to
  88. 3:02do each day when you get to your desk is
  89. 3:04you need to mark the four most important
  90. 3:09and influential levels to trade from
  91. 3:12each day. And those levels are the range
  92. 3:14high, the range low, the swing high, and
  93. 3:17the swing low. Now, let me show you what
  94. 3:19these are and how you figure them out.
  95. 3:21Beginning with the range high and the
  96. 3:22range low. The range high and the range
  97. 3:25low is the previous day's high price and
  98. 3:28the previous day's low price. This is
  99. 3:31one of the reasons we're going to use
  100. 3:32the daily chart. So, you see I have the
  101. 3:33daily chart here. And what I'm going to
  102. 3:35do is box in or draw a line on the very
  103. 3:38top price point of the previous day's
  104. 3:41candle, which is right here. Let's just
  105. 3:42kind of draw that out.
  106. 3:44And I'm going to connect it with the
  107. 3:45lowest price point that you see of that
  108. 3:47daily candle. Now, for today I'm going
  109. 3:49to use lines instead of the box because
  110. 3:52I'm using this thinkorswim and they only
  111. 3:54have one shade of their box, which is
  112. 3:57like a puke gray. And if I put it over
  113. 3:59top of the candles, you don't even see
  114. 4:01the candles. It's not going to help us.
  115. 4:02So, unfortunately, we have to use lines.
  116. 4:04But, these lines are the range high and
  117. 4:06the range low. Now, after that, let's go
  118. 4:08back down to the intraday 5-minute chart
  119. 4:11or whatever time frame we've selected.
  120. 4:14And from here, we need to add two more
  121. 4:16lines. One to the top, which is the
  122. 4:18swing high, one to the bottom, which is
  123. 4:20the swing low. And since we're on the
  124. 4:21bottom, let's do that one. The swing low
  125. 4:24is the very next low underneath of the
  126. 4:27range low. So, here's the range low
  127. 4:29line, not to confuse anyone. All you got
  128. 4:31to do is move your eyes over to the
  129. 4:33left. Note this cluster of activity
  130. 4:37right over here. There's like a a
  131. 4:38quadruple bottom on the 5-minute chart.
  132. 4:41So, I'm just going to go ahead and lay a
  133. 4:43line down here. It doesn't have to be
  134. 4:45perfect to the penny. It's just a
  135. 4:47reference point, and that's going to
  136. 4:49constitute our swing low. Now, for the
  137. 4:52swing high, we're going to do the next
  138. 4:55high that's above the range high. We do
  139. 4:58the same thing. We start moving over to
  140. 5:00the left until we bump into the next
  141. 5:04highest price points, and you're going
  142. 5:05to see there's like this little tiny
  143. 5:08triple top right there. You see that?
  144. 5:10And that's going to constitute
  145. 5:13the swing high. Just like that.
  146. 5:16Now, once we've done this, here's what's
  147. 5:18so important about this and why this is
  148. 5:20number one.
  149. 5:22These, my friends, please understand
  150. 5:24this. These are the only places that you
  151. 5:28and I are going to make a trade. No
  152. 5:32guesswork. If it's anywhere outside of
  153. 5:35that, no. If it's in the middle of that,
  154. 5:38no. These are the most influential,
  155. 5:41highly influential areas, I should say.
  156. 5:44This is where you and I must be. Now, if
  157. 5:48you've been trading for a long time and
  158. 5:49you're studying these strategies and you
  159. 5:51see this beautiful pattern and you're
  160. 5:53wondering how come they stopped working,
  161. 5:56a good reason is you're trading in the
  162. 5:58wrong place. If you're trading anywhere,
  163. 6:00making a trade anywhere else in there,
  164. 6:03you're guessing. That's what you're
  165. 6:04doing. And guessing leads to
  166. 6:06inconsistency. Now, the question becomes
  167. 6:08which one of these are buy lines, which
  168. 6:10one of these are sell lines, and there's
  169. 6:12a simple process. And of course, there's
  170. 6:14nuances to this which we'll discuss here
  171. 6:16in a second, but I think a lot of you
  172. 6:17know this and here's how I've been doing
  173. 6:19it for the last two decades. The upper
  174. 6:22areas represent the highest sell side
  175. 6:27influence
  176. 6:29on that chart. Sell side dominant.
  177. 6:31Sellers control the chart. Now, don't
  178. 6:34take my word for it. Look at the damn
  179. 6:38chart. What happens every time you tap
  180. 6:41in to the range high? Here's 1 2 3 4.
  181. 6:45You tell me what happened every time you
  182. 6:48move to 52,300. What was the end result?
  183. 6:51Selling, correct? Selling. I'm not
  184. 6:54making it up. It's selling. It's right
  185. 6:55there.
  186. 6:56Next, the range low and swing low
  187. 6:59represent the strongest, most
  188. 7:00influential buyer, right?
  189. 7:04Same thing happens here, but it's
  190. 7:05inverse. What happens every time you
  191. 7:07move down to 51 8? 1 2 3 4. You find a
  192. 7:13buyer. Now, what's so important about
  193. 7:16these is you have to trust these levels
  194. 7:19because take a look at this activity.
  195. 7:21When it's dumping like this, no one is
  196. 7:24thinking there's a buyer going to show
  197. 7:26up, but there is. There is a level this
  198. 7:29is going to, right? Just as it is here.
  199. 7:33And what we want to do, as I said, is
  200. 7:36just make sure you put yourself in that
  201. 7:39position if you want to be successful.
  202. 7:42So, that's the outline of using the
  203. 7:44swing high, swing low, range high, range
  204. 7:46low. Now, we're going to go over this as
  205. 7:47well more and make live trades off of
  206. 7:49this.
  207. 7:50But, once we've done that, now I want to
  208. 7:52move over into the real live section of
  209. 7:55this market today or move you up to
  210. 7:56right now because you're going to get
  211. 7:57your very first nuance. Now, I've done
  212. 7:59videos about the swing high, swing low,
  213. 8:01range high, range low before, and one of
  214. 8:03the biggest questions I get is what do
  215. 8:05you do when the market gaps up, which is
  216. 8:07exactly what we have this morning. Note
  217. 8:10right now the YM, look at it's it's
  218. 8:13going to run out of the top of the
  219. 8:15screen here. It's up huge. So, what do
  220. 8:18you do in a situation where the previous
  221. 8:21day's activity is either way above the
  222. 8:23range high? What do you do in those
  223. 8:25situations? Well, we need to create a
  224. 8:27new box, a new range high and a range
  225. 8:29low. Here's how we do it. We come over
  226. 8:31here and we grab the highest price point
  227. 8:34we physically see with our eyes. And I'm
  228. 8:38going to lay a line right there. Now,
  229. 8:40this is the highest price point over the
  230. 8:42last 24 hours as well. You can always
  231. 8:45just go back 24 hours, take the high,
  232. 8:48and take the low. So, if I go back over
  233. 8:50here, where's the low? It's right here.
  234. 8:53Now, tell me when you look at the low,
  235. 8:55is there anything interesting you might
  236. 8:57see?
  237. 8:58Note that the low was the previous day's
  238. 9:02high, right?
  239. 9:04Interesting. You see how those levels
  240. 9:07come into play? So, the pre-market low
  241. 9:10or the post-market low is actually the
  242. 9:13previous day's high. So, those two lines
  243. 9:16constitute
  244. 9:18the range high, the range low. Now,
  245. 9:19let's start with the swing low cuz it's
  246. 9:21a little bit closer. All we need to do
  247. 9:23is come back down here and pick the next
  248. 9:25level, which is about right here in this
  249. 9:27area, right?
  250. 9:29And we're just going to draw a line here
  251. 9:31and create a new swing low. But, now
  252. 9:33when we come to the swing high, we don't
  253. 9:36have anything over here. So, for this,
  254. 9:39I'm going to go to the daily chart,
  255. 9:41right? And I want you to tell me here
  256. 9:42real quick,
  257. 9:45what do you see? So, if I grab this and
  258. 9:47I move it all the way over here on the
  259. 9:50daily chart,
  260. 9:52what has happened
  261. 9:55to the YM
  262. 9:56every time you've got up there? Just
  263. 9:58take a look at the upper red line. You
  264. 10:00tell me,
  265. 10:01what was the end result? Just think
  266. 10:03about it, okay? I'm going to tell you
  267. 10:04here in just a second.
  268. 10:07It should be, and you should be thinking
  269. 10:10sell side. Now, that doesn't really look
  270. 10:14like a sell, correct? Which will bring
  271. 10:17me to number two,
  272. 10:20which is range. To me, range is one of
  273. 10:22the most valuable tools a trader has at
  274. 10:25their disposal, because you've probably
  275. 10:27asked yourself this question. You've
  276. 10:29been in a trade, it starts moving in
  277. 10:31your favor, and you're like, "Should I
  278. 10:33take my money here, or should I hold a
  279. 10:36little bit longer?" Now, most of the
  280. 10:38time when we ask ourselves that, it does
  281. 10:39the complete opposite. But, the reason
  282. 10:41is because we don't understand the
  283. 10:42concept of range. And let me make this
  284. 10:44as easy as I possibly can, and most of
  285. 10:46you probably know, because it's
  286. 10:47self-explanatory. It's what an asset has
  287. 10:50the potential to give you every day.
  288. 10:54Now, let me show you how you figure it
  289. 10:55out and how we're going to use it in
  290. 10:57this case. We want to go back to our
  291. 10:59daily chart. Excuse the chicken scratch.
  292. 11:00Remember, we're just doing this live.
  293. 11:03And I want to go and I want to find the
  294. 11:05the indicator average true range. You go
  295. 11:09over here, you'll see it's listed as
  296. 11:10ATR. I already have it up here in my
  297. 11:12menu, and you just enable it. Do not
  298. 11:14touch it. Don't do do not add any
  299. 11:16filters to it. Just click on it like
  300. 11:18that, hit the apply button, and it's
  301. 11:20[clears throat] going to give you a line
  302. 11:22here on your chart. Now, if you look
  303. 11:23here in the case of YM down at the
  304. 11:25bottom over to the right, you're going
  305. 11:26to see 612.
  306. 11:29So, first, for anybody new that doesn't
  307. 11:31understand range, what does that mean?
  308. 11:33The potential in YM each day can be 600
  309. 11:38plus points, 612 points. Now, I say
  310. 11:41potential each day, let's understand
  311. 11:43something about markets. There are no
  312. 11:45guarantees. Some days they will extend
  313. 11:47range, some days they won't come close
  314. 11:48to range, but if you take a average of
  315. 11:51the last X amount of days, that's what
  316. 11:53you can expect. Now, how we use it as
  317. 11:56traders is a term of value. So, for
  318. 11:59example, if the YM is up 600
  319. 12:02points, it's quote-unquote expensive for
  320. 12:07this time period that we're trading for
  321. 12:09this moment in time, for the short-term
  322. 12:10time period as traders we are.
  323. 12:12It is considered to be expensive or a
  324. 12:15little frothy. Now, that doesn't have
  325. 12:16anything to do with the long-term
  326. 12:18picture, but the short-term picture as
  327. 12:19traders, which is important, short-term
  328. 12:21traders, excuse me,
  329. 12:22that's important. So, the closer you get
  330. 12:25400, 500, 600 points up, you start to
  331. 12:28get a little frothy, market's getting
  332. 12:30ahead of itself, right?
  333. 12:32The other way, if it's down 400, 500,
  334. 12:34600 points deep in the range, it's
  335. 12:37starting to get cheap or oversold on the
  336. 12:41short-term. Now, where that calculates
  337. 12:43into what we're doing is you get these
  338. 12:47epic level reversals once you start to
  339. 12:49expand
  340. 12:51ranges. And we'll go over that here in a
  341. 12:53second, but let me just kind of give you
  342. 12:56a little quiz. I'm going to move this
  343. 12:57down here.
  344. 12:59And then let me just leave it up. Let me
  345. 13:00just leave this up for a second. I'm
  346. 13:01going to just ask you this. With just
  347. 13:03the two pieces of knowledge you have
  348. 13:04here,
  349. 13:05number one, we determined what when we
  350. 13:08had the range high, range low, swing
  351. 13:09high, swing low. I mean, you look at the
  352. 13:11daily chart, you tell me right here,
  353. 13:13what has happened every time the YM has
  354. 13:16moved up here to 52,700, 708.
  355. 13:20What happens? What happens at the box
  356. 13:23high, range high, swing high? What
  357. 13:24happens?
  358. 13:25Sellers show up. Some magical seller,
  359. 13:27some seller comes out of nowhere, smash
  360. 13:30it a little bit lower, right? So, we've
  361. 13:32already determined just based off of the
  362. 13:34four lines we've drawn, probably should
  363. 13:36look to sell this thing, right? Because
  364. 13:37you're reaching resistance.
  365. 13:39But you're not just reaching resistance
  366. 13:41here, right?
  367. 13:42You're also what? 602
  368. 13:47points in the grain. So, I know you guys
  369. 13:50are good at math.
  370. 13:52That's almost 100% of the daily range.
  371. 13:54Am I correct?
  372. 13:56So, if you're at resistance,
  373. 13:59where sellers are known to be,
  374. 14:02you're almost 100% of range, 600 points
  375. 14:05was is insane, and the market's not even
  376. 14:07open.
  377. 14:08I want you to tell me,
  378. 14:11what what do you think is going to
  379. 14:13happen here? Now,
  380. 14:15when I should should refrain, what's
  381. 14:16going to happen right when the bell like
  382. 14:18what's the first move? What do you
  383. 14:21think?
  384. 14:22Now, I hope you're thinking sell. Not
  385. 14:26you want to sell, not because you're a
  386. 14:28seller by nature, but because that's
  387. 14:31what the chart's telling you to do. It's
  388. 14:33clear. One, resistance. Two, range. So,
  389. 14:37we know we're going to sell.
  390. 14:40But when are we going to sell? That's
  391. 14:41the good point. How do we know? Maybe it
  392. 14:43goes up a thousand, right? It's done
  393. 14:45that before. How do we know that's not
  394. 14:47the mistake of our lives? Because as I
  395. 14:48said earlier, it certainly doesn't look
  396. 14:49like it's a sell.
  397. 14:51This brings us to the final piece, which
  398. 14:52I know everybody who's watching the good
  399. 14:55is you're already a pro at this. You
  400. 14:57know exactly how to do this and do it
  401. 14:59perfectly. And that is tell time, the
  402. 15:03clock. The actual clock provides you
  403. 15:06with an advantage more than you would
  404. 15:08ever know. And unfortunately, it took me
  405. 15:10about four or five years before somebody
  406. 15:12told me how important the actual
  407. 15:14physical clock was, and maybe nobody's
  408. 15:16ever told you that. Now, let me show you
  409. 15:18what I'm what I'm talking about or
  410. 15:19explain it to to
  411. 15:20Each [snorts] day, you get a very
  412. 15:23aggressive pivot. A pivot is a shift in
  413. 15:26momentum or a very explosive move.
  414. 15:29Now, they happen all certain times of
  415. 15:31the day, obviously, but most of the time
  416. 15:33the pivot that you will see or the
  417. 15:35explosive move that you see, the move
  418. 15:37that you want to trade comes after the
  419. 15:40first 10 minutes of the day. So, between
  420. 15:42minutes 10 and minutes 20, you normally
  421. 15:46will see, remember I'm saying normally
  422. 15:48here, a very aggressive and high-quality
  423. 15:51trading opportunity appearing. This is
  424. 15:55where you and I also want to trade. So,
  425. 15:56think about what we're talking about.
  426. 15:58We're trading at a specific location.
  427. 16:00We're trading a specific premium dollar
  428. 16:03amount in value, and we're trading at a
  429. 16:05specific time. What we're doing here is
  430. 16:08we're positioning ourselves
  431. 16:11to make money as often as possible.
  432. 16:14Again, nothing is guaranteed in trading.
  433. 16:16Nothing is perfect. But, what we want to
  434. 16:18do is we want to be at the right place
  435. 16:20at the right time as often as we can.
  436. 16:22And by combining those three things
  437. 16:24right there, that's going to put you in
  438. 16:26that position. The last little thing I
  439. 16:28want to talk to each and every one of
  440. 16:29you about is time itself. Because the
  441. 16:31very first 5 minutes of each session has
  442. 16:34the highest amount of tradeable volume,
  443. 16:36the most amount of market participants,
  444. 16:38you also get the most amount of, let's
  445. 16:40say, lunacy during that time. And until
  446. 16:43you've really adapted some high-quality
  447. 16:45technical analysis skills, I highly
  448. 16:48recommend you stay out of that. It's
  449. 16:52very difficult to get accurate readings
  450. 16:54in a high-speed environment if you're
  451. 16:57new. Now, if you're a pro, great. It's
  452. 16:59not a problem. But, until you've really
  453. 17:01developed your technical analysis
  454. 17:02skills, stay out of the first 10
  455. 17:04minutes. You just You're just asking for
  456. 17:06trouble. You're just asking for trouble.
  457. 17:08So, what I'm going to do is go back up
  458. 17:09here to the intraday chart right before
  459. 17:12the here.
  460. 17:14And I'm going to go down here to see my
  461. 17:15market opens at 6:30. So, I'm just going
  462. 17:18to kind of draw a box here. Again, this
  463. 17:20is a ugly box between 6:30
  464. 17:24and let's say 6:40, the first 10
  465. 17:26minutes, okay? Let's just make it a
  466. 17:27little bit bigger, right? There, okay.
  467. 17:30We want to make the trade outside of
  468. 17:33this. So, we want to give ourselves a
  469. 17:34little bit of time just in case the they
  470. 17:36want to chase this early, right? They
  471. 17:38might want to chase that early, they
  472. 17:39might want to run it up a little bit
  473. 17:40higher.
  474. 17:41Just because it's range, just because
  475. 17:42it's resistant, look at the market can
  476. 17:44do whatever the hell it wants. Maybe it
  477. 17:45wants to go a little bit higher. So, we
  478. 17:46want to let everybody kind of have their
  479. 17:48fun first, let them throw their money
  480. 17:49around, let them get their emotions out
  481. 17:51of the way, and then we're going to see
  482. 17:53if we have a short. Now, if we don't,
  483. 17:56and let's say the first move just
  484. 17:57implodes and it drops, then we're going
  485. 18:00to look for a lower level down here
  486. 18:02towards the bottom of the box, towards
  487. 18:05the range low and the swing low to try
  488. 18:08to get long. So, see, we always have an
  489. 18:10option. It just depends on what the
  490. 18:12market gives us. So, we're not
  491. 18:13inflicting a bias on the market. We know
  492. 18:15what we want to do, but we still need
  493. 18:17help from the market. We still need the
  494. 18:19market to do that. So, it's going to
  495. 18:20open up here in a few more minutes. I'll
  496. 18:22come back and we'll take a look at what
  497. 18:24kind of chart we have post 10 minutes,
  498. 18:27and then we'll see if we actually have a
  499. 18:28legitimate trade, and then we'll maybe
  500. 18:31even mask up some new levels, okay? So,
  501. 18:33let's go ahead and see what we have here
  502. 18:34in just a few minutes.
  503. 18:36Okay, so I am back. It's almost been 10
  504. 18:39minutes. We're on the 10-minute candle
  505. 18:40actually of the day, the second 5-minute
  506. 18:42candle here at least on my chart.
  507. 18:45And I think we have exactly what it is
  508. 18:47that we are looking for. Now, before I
  509. 18:49tell you what it is, based off of
  510. 18:52everything we've discussed so far, I
  511. 18:53want you to tell me what do you see? And
  512. 18:56let me give you a hint. Focus on the
  513. 18:59range high and the range low, and focus
  514. 19:03on the candles.
  515. 19:04What are you seeing currently? Let me
  516. 19:07open it up just a little bit bigger cuz
  517. 19:09I want everyone to be be to see that.
  518. 19:11Now, this gray [snorts] box obviously is
  519. 19:12the 10-minute box. We're waiting for it
  520. 19:13to finish.
  521. 19:15Note that again, you're you're not
  522. 19:18making this up. There's no guessing.
  523. 19:19Note every time you get up there, do you
  524. 19:22see the drag on these intraday candles?
  525. 19:24This is why we're using smaller time
  526. 19:25frames to see this context. See all
  527. 19:28these I call them John Wicks. Sometimes
  528. 19:29people make fun of me about it, but it's
  529. 19:31it's a way for me to mentally relate to
  530. 19:33what I'm seeing.
  531. 19:34Note
  532. 19:36the the the pull on it. You you can
  533. 19:39smell
  534. 19:40>> [snorts]
  535. 19:40>> I can smell the selling right here in
  536. 19:43this. So, what I'm looking to do is get
  537. 19:48in here short. I I mean, you can see the
  538. 19:50resistance up there. So, our stop is
  539. 19:52going to be up over top of the high.
  540. 19:54Just kind of waiting for this candle to
  541. 19:56to kind of finish out of a little bit
  542. 19:58more before I enter it, just so it
  543. 20:00doesn't get picked up down here towards
  544. 20:02the low, but but look at I mean, it's
  545. 20:03obvious. That's what you should be
  546. 20:05seeing. There's clear and present
  547. 20:07selling at the swing high. We just need
  548. 20:10a little nudge. Now, this is also the
  549. 20:13reason it's happening is because the
  550. 20:14damn thing is up 600 points. That's
  551. 20:17important. If it was up 30, it wouldn't
  552. 20:19be a big deal or 50, but it's six
  553. 20:22freaking hundred points. It's going to
  554. 20:25be hard to hold this, okay? So,
  555. 20:27let's see where we are
  556. 20:29in the next couple of minutes.
  557. 20:32See if I can fire off an entry here. I'm
  558. 20:34kind of just stalling to see real quick
  559. 20:36if I actually get it.
  560. 20:39Let me just leave this open and see if
  561. 20:40we get it. All right. So, I went ahead
  562. 20:43and I entered. I'm going to put the
  563. 20:45screenshot up there.
  564. 20:4652705.
  565. 20:50705
  566. 20:52right here on the third 5-minute candle,
  567. 20:54which is the 15-minute candle. My
  568. 20:55apologies. Let me open this up. Right
  569. 20:58here.
  570. 20:59Right here on this spike. It looked
  571. 21:01there at one time you had a little power
  572. 21:02tower, but as soon as it started to drag
  573. 21:04on the 15-minute, I went in and entered.
  574. 21:07I really kind of was thinking about
  575. 21:08jumping in on the second candle, but I
  576. 21:10went ahead and let it finish. So, I
  577. 21:12think it's obvious we've already talked
  578. 21:14about it. Here are your candlesticks. I
  579. 21:17mean, and and let me just explain this.
  580. 21:19Maybe it comes up there and stops us
  581. 21:21out. Maybe it's just going to be one of
  582. 21:22those days. But, there's only so much
  583. 21:24confirmation you can get. I mean, once
  584. 21:25you got it, what what what else are we
  585. 21:27looking for? I mean, again, I can I can
  586. 21:28smell it, all right? Now, because it's
  587. 21:31up so much here, it's probably going to
  588. 21:32be a little bit radical. Now, the next
  589. 21:35thing we want to talk about is what to
  590. 21:38expect in terms of range to the downside
  591. 21:41and what we want to expect in terms of
  592. 21:43target, okay? Now, if you look here,
  593. 21:46what you can always do is pull other
  594. 21:48areas. So, note that this candle is
  595. 21:50fussing over here at 52 654,
  596. 21:54as is this one, as is these two, as is
  597. 21:57these two, as is these two. So, this is
  598. 21:59a very hardcore support level, right?
  599. 22:02And that's one of the reasons why I
  600. 22:03wanted to short there. to give myself a
  601. 22:05little room to stay out of the the spike
  602. 22:08zone. So, if we can clear this 52 650,
  603. 22:14we should be able to move to the next
  604. 22:17level. So, remember also, we're not
  605. 22:19guessing, we're making level-to-level
  606. 22:22trading. So, if we can dispatch of this
  607. 22:24level, which is you can see it's it's a
  608. 22:26little bit difficult,
  609. 22:28we can work on this level here. I'm
  610. 22:30going to draw some just zones to pay
  611. 22:32attention to and maybe even this one
  612. 22:35here.
  613. 22:36That's pretty far, but let's see if we
  614. 22:38can move down there. Now, the other
  615. 22:41thing is with the range, let's not rule
  616. 22:43out here. One of the reasons I like
  617. 22:44this, we could fill in the gap. If I
  618. 22:46move this down here, guys, we can go all
  619. 22:49the way back down here to where it
  620. 22:51started. That's the lure of this. The
  621. 22:53risk is very low. The stop is above all
  622. 22:55of these wicks. Again, we just need a
  623. 22:58really good break of that. So, I will
  624. 23:00come back and keep you updated. I just
  625. 23:02want to stand here in dead silence like
  626. 23:05you know how you get with your trading.
  627. 23:07Let's see and I will keep you updated,
  628. 23:09but we just really need to get below
  629. 23:12that 52 650. Yeah.
  630. 23:15Okay, so I wanted to queue this up real
  631. 23:17quick. Sorry for jumping around, but I
  632. 23:19wanted to get this up real quick as fast
  633. 23:20as I could to show you. We finally got
  634. 23:23back into that shorter term support.
  635. 23:26Now, note how See it See it See it See
  636. 23:28how it accelerates as soon as you can
  637. 23:29break down those shorter term support
  638. 23:32structures, those shorter term buyers
  639. 23:34because anybody who had pop possibly
  640. 23:36bought that dip, excuse me, I'm getting
  641. 23:38amped up here a little bit, probably has
  642. 23:40a stop down here. So, now that we're
  643. 23:42free and clear of this I get a little
  644. 23:45bit lower I want to take some of the off
  645. 23:47here on the table and pay myself. But,
  646. 23:49what we can do now that we've got a
  647. 23:51break of that structure is let's move
  648. 23:53the stop from where we originally were
  649. 23:55going to put it at 57
  650. 23:58793 area. Let's move that down to
  651. 24:01roughly the entry. Just right above
  652. 24:03let's say right above this green candle
  653. 24:04right here. Uh
  654. 24:06again, we can still be spiked on, but
  655. 24:08now that we've dispatched of this level,
  656. 24:11we want to look at the next one which is
  657. 24:1252
  658. 24:14600.
  659. 24:15Let's see if we can
  660. 24:17get rid of that, but so far so good. Uh
  661. 24:20even if it stops here and we have to
  662. 24:22take the money, we get stopped out. The
  663. 24:24principal the the the principal was
  664. 24:25still there. Remember, resistance,
  665. 24:28excessive range, and the clock putting
  666. 24:31all this together. All right, guys. So,
  667. 24:32I am back. It's been a good 30 minutes.
  668. 24:35Look at this chart. I wanted to come
  669. 24:37back a little bit earlier, but I got a
  670. 24:39lot of things going on trading live with
  671. 24:40the community as well. I left these
  672. 24:43lines up here. It's been a mess looking
  673. 24:44at these lines all day, but look, each
  674. 24:46and every time you just broke down those
  675. 24:48lines. It just kind of goes from one
  676. 24:49level to the next.
  677. 24:51I didn't think this thing was going to
  678. 24:52produce this much in the way of gains
  679. 24:54and you never know that. You never know
  680. 24:56what you're going to get. You just have
  681. 24:57to get in it based off of the strategy,
  682. 24:59the formula, and the setup
  683. 25:01and let things go. But, this thing's
  684. 25:03already well in excess of 300 plus 350
  685. 25:06points and at, you know, five bucks a
  686. 25:08point per contract,
  687. 25:11this is a big trade. This is a monster
  688. 25:14trade. Now, I did take a little bit off
  689. 25:16of that here around the first support
  690. 25:19area just to book some profits and draw
  691. 25:21that stop. So, a lot of people ask,
  692. 25:23"Now, what do you do in a situation like
  693. 25:24this?" Because
  694. 25:26this is the benefits of trading live
  695. 25:27markets, trading real things,
  696. 25:29dealing with these circumstances. So, in
  697. 25:33this case, we got to start thinking that
  698. 25:36maybe you're going to find your way down
  699. 25:38into the gap back. And maybe you maybe
  700. 25:41you fill in this whole gap. Remember,
  701. 25:43this thing was overbought as hell. So,
  702. 25:45when you go back and you look at the
  703. 25:46range at the top, you're 270. You're
  704. 25:49still freaking green. Right? It It It's
  705. 25:52still green. Like, it can go red. That's
  706. 25:55the beauty of range. Uh I didn't think
  707. 25:57they were going to hit it this hard. I
  708. 25:58actually thought it might get bought
  709. 25:59back up a little faster. But, all we're
  710. 26:01going to do here is just trail down per
  711. 26:04candle. So, each candle, the stop right
  712. 26:06now is 52.5. We're going to keep on
  713. 26:09walking it down until we eventually get
  714. 26:12stopped out. Now,
  715. 26:14it it's impulsive sometimes to want to
  716. 26:16take the money, but in this case,
  717. 26:18why would we? Look at it.
  718. 26:20What's to say that anyone buys this?
  719. 26:22We'd have to see something and we've
  720. 26:24already got some profits. We want to
  721. 26:26ride this one out. We might be able to
  722. 26:27book another 100, 200 here. I mean, this
  723. 26:29thing could turn out to a like a
  724. 26:31mid-size sedan in gains. So, we don't
  725. 26:34want to give this up. I'm going to come
  726. 26:36back a little bit later. It's actually
  727. 26:38very hot here in Las Vegas. It's like
  728. 26:40100 110, no joke, and I'm burning up.
  729. 26:43I'm just like sweating here, so I
  730. 26:44apologize.
  731. 26:46Let's see if we can get down there a
  732. 26:47little bit lower. I think we can make it
  733. 26:48to what?
  734. 26:50The range low. Interesting, right? It's
  735. 26:52going to find its way down to the range
  736. 26:53low, maybe? Hmm? Swing low.
  737. 26:55Unbelievable. These levels are like
  738. 26:57magic. That's why Silvia calls them the
  739. 26:59magic lines.
  740. 27:00So, let's see. Let's see.
  741. 27:02All right, guys. I am back with a final
  742. 27:05update. I almost forgot I was doing this
  743. 27:07video cuz it's been like an hour and
  744. 27:10I've been doing tons of other things
  745. 27:11with the child. I even changed my shirt
  746. 27:13because it's like freaking hot here. I
  747. 27:15told you earlier it's like 112°.
  748. 27:18Air conditioner isn't even doing a good
  749. 27:19job. So, I apologize. I wasn't even
  750. 27:21paying attention. I just fired back up
  751. 27:22the recorder. I'm completely out of this
  752. 27:25trade. I did take a couple of partials
  753. 27:27on the way down. And actually, look
  754. 27:29where it got to. It got down into the
  755. 27:33the range low, right? And that was
  756. 27:35actually a nice little John Wick kind of
  757. 27:37reversal trade to the long side. So,
  758. 27:40you know, there's multiple opportunities
  759. 27:43in these things, but this thing went for
  760. 27:45well over 400 plus points. Again, you do
  761. 27:48the math. Five bucks a point, multiple
  762. 27:50contracts. This This was the biggest
  763. 27:53trade I made in the the month. This This
  764. 27:55is amazing. They don't always work this
  765. 27:56way. I'm not going to act like they do.
  766. 27:58But this was beautiful and there's even
  767. 28:00another one here, but I'm not I'm not
  768. 28:01going to take it. When I have a trade
  769. 28:02like that,
  770. 28:04I'm not going to do another one. There's
  771. 28:05no reason to to push it. That's just
  772. 28:08incredible and I
  773. 28:09just being up front, I don't get them
  774. 28:11like that every day. Huge move. But you
  775. 28:13can see there's also a reversal. But let
  776. 28:14me just ask you this.
  777. 28:16Where did the reversal take place? Where
  778. 28:18was the dip buy?
  779. 28:21Dip buy was down here towards the range
  780. 28:23low and the swing low. Where did it go
  781. 28:26from? Swing highs, right? Swing high
  782. 28:28range high
  783. 28:29to swing low range low. One spot.
  784. 28:32Trading in here in the middle got you
  785. 28:34what? Got you cheesed. Got you in
  786. 28:37trouble. Got you whipsawed all over the
  787. 28:40place, right? And that's what we have to
  788. 28:42keep in mind. So, on that note, guys,
  789. 28:44I'm going to end this video. Amazing
  790. 28:46trade.
  791. 28:47If you are really wanting to advance in
  792. 28:50your trading, you've got to put these
  793. 28:52three pieces of context and I think you
  794. 28:53know that now. But, if you're looking to
  795. 28:56go to another level with this and you
  796. 28:57really want to take this seriously,
  797. 28:58there's two things I want to remind you
  798. 29:00of. Number one
  799. 29:01is
  800. 29:02my wife and I put together a free watch
  801. 29:05list every week. It's something we offer
  802. 29:06the community. It's called the gains
  803. 29:07guide. The link is down there in the
  804. 29:09description.
  805. 29:10Also, you can trade with us live each
  806. 29:12day because
  807. 29:14I'm I while I'm doing this live, I'm
  808. 29:16also trading live with the community.
  809. 29:18Hence why I've got to keep cutting and
  810. 29:19coming back, cutting and coming back.
  811. 29:21Because I'm walking them through this
  812. 29:23trade, too, and many of them have taken
  813. 29:24this. And this is what it's all about is
  814. 29:27understanding not just a setup, but how
  815. 29:29things work, how markets function. So,
  816. 29:33on that note, guys, let me thank you for
  817. 29:34watching today's video. As always, I
  818. 29:36want to thank you for watching it. I
  819. 29:38hope I was able to give you some value
  820. 29:40today. And as always, until the next
  821. 29:42video, take care, trade well, and
  822. 29:45cheers.

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