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You Are Alive to Watch the Space Station Fall From the Sky — Transcript

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0:00The greatest technological achievement
0:02in human history is speeding overhead at
0:058 km per second.
0:08And in as few as 5 years,
0:11it'll be rubble at the bottom of the
0:13ocean.
0:14The International Space Station is
0:17coming home
0:18in the greatest fireworks show that
0:20you'll ever see in your life.
0:27It's the most expensive object ever
0:30made.
0:31We're lucky enough to be able to look up
0:33and see it with the naked eye as it
0:35tracks across the night sky.
0:37There's even an app that will alert you
0:39to when it's passing overhead.
0:42And humans have been living on it since
0:44the year 2000. A continuous human
0:47presence in space for nearly 30 years.
0:51And we'll be alive to see the
0:53International Space Station's complete
0:56and total destruction as it crashes back
0:58to Earth in a spectacular shower of
1:01fire.
1:03As this technological marvel breaks
1:05apart and burns up in the atmosphere,
1:08it'll signal a fiery end for [music] an
1:11era of science, space exploration, and
1:14human cooperation in space.
1:17Billions of dollars in investment and
1:20countless hours of collective effort
1:22will be vaporized by temperatures up to
1:251650°
1:27C.
1:28And we will be witnesses to the tragic
1:31loss of humankind's greatest [music]
1:33collective global effort.
1:36Will this be the end of human science
1:38collaboration in space?
1:40Will all this really be lost forever?
1:45To say that the International Space
1:46Station is one of the greatest
1:48collective human achievements, that's an
1:50understatement. Most of us know about
1:52the ISS from videos of astronauts were
1:55playing with floating water balls or I
1:58mean crazy static hair, but real science
2:01happens up there, too.
2:03So, what exactly is the ISS?
2:06Well, in addition to its massive thermal
2:09radiators and solar panels, the ISS
2:12[music] has 16 pressurized modules,
2:15including multiple labs, six bedrooms,
2:18two bathrooms, and a workout gym.
2:21It spans an area roughly the size of a
2:24football field, and it weighs 430,000
2:28kg. That's 950,000
2:31lb.
2:32The ISS is the largest human object in
2:35space, and I said this before, but it's
2:38traveling at [music] 8 km per second.
2:42Think about the fact that a football
2:44field is traveling the length of America
2:47every 10 minutes.
2:49To think of it in another way, a person
2:51who's standing in the middle of a flat
2:53grassland looking from horizon to
2:55horizon, can see about 8 km. So, if you
2:59were to experience the ISS flying past
3:01you at ground level, well, you'd blink
3:04and it'd be at your face, and you'd
3:06blink and it'd be gone again.
3:08Horizon to horizon would take about 1
3:11second.
3:13Yeah.
3:14So, how did this astro bullet train ever
3:18come to exist?
3:20Well,
3:20there's no way it could have been built
3:22on Earth and then moved into place.
3:25It's just too massive and complex.
3:28The ISS orbits at 415
3:31km above the surface of Earth in what's
3:34called low Earth orbit.
3:36It might be in low orbit, but when
3:39you're fighting gravity, it's still a
3:41long way up. Every single kilogram of
3:44equipment or supplies requires enormous
3:47energy to deliver.
3:49To achieve what seemed impossible,
3:52scientists and engineers from across the
3:55globe had to come together to share both
3:57technical expertise and resources. The
4:00ISS took over a decade to build and
4:04involved the collaboration of five space
4:06agencies representing 15 countries
4:09making it not just a technological
4:11triumph, but also an unprecedented
4:14moment of geopolitical cooperation.
4:18Booking a space flight to the ISS is an
4:21historic marvel and it's a marvel
4:24rivaled only by the enormity of how
4:26horrific the passenger flight booking
4:29system is currently.
4:30But, thankfully, there's a fix for that
4:32that's much simpler than the cross
4:35coordination of multiple countries to
4:37build a space station. This episode is
4:40brought to you by Soar.
4:42You know the drill. You search a flight,
4:45get bounced to some third-party site
4:47you've never heard of, decline the
4:49upsells, and then retype your name and
4:51card number again for what feels like
4:53the 40th time this year. Humanity has
4:56now manually retyped 16-digit card
4:59numbers into forms so many times that
5:03if each keystroke were a step, we'd have
5:05walked to Pluto and most of the way back
5:08just to reconfirm that we are, in fact,
5:10still ourselves.
5:13Soar skips all of that. Same price as
5:15Google Flights or Skyscanner, sometimes
5:17cheaper, but your information is already
5:20there. One tap and you're booked. It
5:23checks you in automatically and [music]
5:25doesn't disappear after that. It texts
5:27you your boarding pass, your gate, and
5:30any delay before the airport departure
5:32board even updates.
5:34If you've got a trip coming up, well,
5:36give Soar a look. Go to
5:38soar.flights/whatifscienceshow
5:41or scan the QR code and try the future
5:44of flying. Okay, now back to the history
5:47of the ISS.
5:49Ironically, it was the end of the space
5:52race between the Soviet Union and the
5:54United States that opened the door to
5:57imagining and building the ISS as a
6:00truly international effort. It would
6:03never have happened if it wasn't for two
6:05historical coincidences. The first
6:08[music] was the collapse of the Soviet
6:09Union, which left Roscosmos, the Russian
6:12space agency, open to international
6:15cooperation. And the second was the
6:18slashing of NASA budgets as pressure to
6:21beat the Russians evaporated.
6:23At an estimated cost between 100 and 150
6:27[music]
6:28billion dollars,
6:30the ISS holds the Guinness World Record
6:32for the most expensive man-made object
6:35ever built.
6:36The enormous cost of building space
6:38stations made collaboration an economic
6:41necessity.
6:43Now, despite the historically
6:45antagonistic relationship between the
6:47old Soviet Union and the US, this wasn't
6:50the first time they collaborated. The US
6:52and Russia had experimented with space
6:54cooperation before.
6:56After decades of leapfrogging each other
6:59during the Cold War, there was a brief
7:01scientific thaw in the icy relationship.
7:04Yeah, in 1975,
7:06the Soviet and American [music] modules
7:08joined in orbit during the Apollo-Soyuz
7:11mission.
7:12Astronauts from the two ideological
7:14rivals ate and worked together for two
7:17whole days before going their separate
7:19ways.
7:2120 years later, in 1995, after the
7:23collapse of the Soviet Union, NASA's
7:26space shuttle docked with the Russian
7:28space station Mir for a series of
7:31collaborative missions.
7:32The Russians already had extensive
7:34experience building space stations at
7:36this point. Mir had been operating for
7:38over 15 years.
7:41Mir was the template of the modular
7:43space station, but ISS was much more
7:47ambitious.
7:48Even with an unprecedented budget and
7:51unparalleled international team, it
7:54would still take a decade to build the
7:56ISS. Individual pieces were built in
7:59separate participating countries over
8:01several years even before the assembly
8:03began.
8:05It took 42 separate launches to ferry
8:08the individual parts and the crews to
8:10build it in space.
8:13Assembly [music] started in November of
8:151998 when the Russians placed the first
8:18piece, Zarya, which means sunrise, into
8:21orbit. Zarya was a propulsion [music]
8:24and control module system to keep the
8:26station in place, essentially the
8:29foundational anchor.
8:31Now, 2 weeks later, [music] space
8:32shuttle Endeavour arrived with Unity, a
8:35node module that other modules could
8:37connect to, plus a six-person assembly
8:40crew to start building the station.
8:42It took until July of 2000 for the third
8:45building block to arrive, another
8:47Russian module, Zvezda, containing
8:50living accommodations and
8:51communications.
8:53And on November 2nd, 2000, the first
8:56expedition crew finally arrived and
8:59began the era of continuous habitation.
9:02Ever since then, there have been humans
9:05living in space.
9:07Core construction was officially
9:08completed in July of 2011, over a decade
9:13after it began.
9:14In the US segment alone, more than 1 and
9:171/2 million lines of flight software
9:19code run on 44 different computers.
9:23They handle signals for 350,000
9:26sensors, measuring pressure,
9:29temperature, valve positions, and other
9:31critical data.
9:33There've been over 280 spacewalks on the
9:36ISS since 1998. And of course, each one
9:40of those was planned [music] and
9:42executed meticulously.
9:44Every time these astronauts step
9:46outside, they're adding to our
9:49collective knowledge of space
9:50exploration. And
9:52that's the ISS's real purpose, the
9:55advancement of science and our
9:57understanding of living in space.
10:00Now, what makes the ISS an experimental
10:02and research powerhouse is its
10:05microgravity environment.
10:08The curious thing is that even at 400 km
10:10away, gravity is still 89% of what you
10:15would experience on the ground on Earth.
10:17So, how is it a microgravity
10:20environment?
10:21Well, the weird reality is that the ISS
10:24is in a perpetual free fall toward
10:27Earth.
10:28But, because it's also traveling
10:30sideways at 8 km a second,
10:33it never gets closer to Earth. By the
10:35time it's fallen 1 m, well, Earth is now
10:39also 1 m farther away.
10:41So, it's constantly falling, but always
10:45missing Earth.
10:46Now, as strange as this sounds,
10:49this is what orbit is. But, most
10:52importantly, the experience on board is
10:55weightlessness.
10:57We don't think of a gravity all the time
10:59because it's just there every second of
11:01the day, but Earth's gravitational pull
11:04has an effect on everything. So, getting
11:08away from the constant force of gravity
11:10and
11:10>> [music]
11:10>> operating in a microgravity environment
11:13enables research into specialized
11:15[music]
11:16molecular and chemical processes.
11:19Experiments like crystallizing proteins
11:21in microgravity are part of efforts to
11:24develop artificial blood for animals. I
11:27mean, obviously, vets don't have access
11:30to large blood banks for animals, so
11:33artificial blood could be a game-changer
11:35for animal health. And growing stem
11:38cells. Stem cells are used in many
11:40life-saving [music] procedures, but are
11:42especially crucial for treating patients
11:44with cancer like leukemia. But creating
11:47stem cells, a process called expansion,
11:50can be difficult on Earth. Growing them
11:52in a microgravity environment on the ISS
11:55helps them stay in a high-quality state
11:57longer and reduces rejection.
12:00Other experiments have led to the
12:02development of small x-ray sources to
12:05improve CT scan technology,
12:07testing manufacturing technology in
12:09space to produce artificial retinas
12:12using processes that lay down 200 layers
12:15of film, proving out robotic technology,
12:18and creating an industrial-strength
12:20robotic glove to help astronauts and
12:23auto workers in their jobs. Innovations
12:25in battery tech to improve the
12:27efficiency of power systems,
12:30microgravity studies into how compounds
12:32burn, research that leads to more
12:34efficient fuel use and [music] advances
12:36in firefighting technology, improving
12:38cancer treatment by developing
12:40high-quality crystalline suspensions
12:43can't be made on Earth. And aside from
12:45direct experimentation, there have been
12:48a whole host of secondary benefits and
12:50spin-offs from the ISS. In many cases,
12:54the tech developed specifically to solve
12:56the complex problems of sustaining human
12:58life in space and running a space
13:00station can be applied to problems back
13:02on Earth. Just like the original Apollo
13:05missions led to major [music]
13:06advancements in microchip technology and
13:09the development of cordless power tools
13:11we all use today, [music] and the
13:13invention of foil space blankets, which
13:15are now standard equipment in emergency
13:18kits. They've even tested [music] remote
13:20robotic surgery on the ISS, proving that
13:23precise robotic procedures can be done
13:26in space or on a future moon base or
13:29just across the country. But, the
13:31benefits go way beyond these
13:33innovations. Over the last [music] 20
13:36years, scientists connected with the ISS
13:39have produced over 5,000 scientific
13:42publications, carried out over 4,000
13:45experiments, and have been cited in
13:47scientific journals more than 100,000
13:50times. The ISS has become a symbol of
13:53progress. It's a literal shining example
13:57in our night sky of how nations can
13:59overcome their differences.
14:01And all this, every success, every bit
14:04of history,
14:05will soon come crashing down
14:07in the end of an era.
14:12>> This is not right. Something happened.
14:18>> You know, the Great Pyramids were left
14:20unattended for thousands of [music]
14:21years. And aside from some wear from the
14:23elements and tear from human activity,
14:27they stayed put. Even now, they stand as
14:30a testament to the people who built
14:31them. But,
14:33the ISS won't be around to be visited or
14:36studied as an antiquity in the future.
14:39An orbiting space station needs constant
14:41maintenance and reboosting to remain in
14:44orbit.
14:45NASA has committed to fully use and
14:48safely operate the station through 2030.
14:51But, after that, it's scheduled for
14:53destruction.
14:55But, why would the agencies involved
14:58allow this precious science lab lifted
15:01into orbit at an astronomical cost to be
15:05discarded so casually?
15:07Why can't we save it?
15:09Well,
15:10science fiction movies have given us a
15:11false sense of ships in space that can
15:14last forever. But, the films rarely ever
15:17pause the action long enough to feature
15:19the daily details of maintenance and
15:21metal fatigue.
15:22There's massive wear and tear in space.
15:24The ISS's structure experiences
15:27significant stress as [music] heavy
15:29spacecraft dock and undock. And it
15:32undergoes constantly changing heating
15:34and cooling cycles as it orbits. So, the
15:37station's structure has a finite
15:40lifespan.
15:41So,
15:42why doesn't NASA just return the station
15:44to Earth? It's got enormous historic
15:47value and deserves a museum of its own.
15:50Well, it wasn't built to come apart.
15:53Assembly took over a decade and hundreds
15:56of spacewalks using a space [music]
15:58shuttle cargo bay that no longer exists.
16:01Taking it apart?
16:03That would need the same work, but in
16:05reverse.
16:06Plus, the space shuttle with its roomy
16:08cargo bay has long been retired. There's
16:10nothing like it out there to do the same
16:13job again.
16:14And NASA has been working with the
16:16Smithsonian Air and Space Museum to
16:18preserve small parts of the station, but
16:21it's just not practical to return any of
16:23the bigger pieces to Earth.
16:26Well, then why not just let it stay
16:28where it is?
16:29Well, even at 400 km above Earth's
16:33surface, there are trace amounts of
16:35atmosphere, which create drag on the
16:37station. So, it needs periodic booster
16:40lifts to keep it from slowly falling to
16:42Earth. And [music] those boosts are
16:44costly to deliver.
16:46These days, it costs a staggering $4.1
16:49billion a year just to keep the lights
16:52on.
16:53So, then why not push the ISS into a
16:56higher orbit where it could remain
16:59parked for multiple hundreds of years
17:02awaiting some future use?
17:04Well, the first problem would be the
17:06amount of energy needed to push the
17:08station into a significantly higher
17:11orbit. There currently isn't a rocket
17:13that can do that. And any big booster
17:16mission has to consider the station's
17:18structural integrity during thrust. And
17:22even if we could push it high enough,
17:24there's another issue. All the delivery
17:27systems and vehicles that currently
17:29service the station are specifically
17:31designed to operate in low Earth orbit.
17:35At a higher orbit, there'd be no ability
17:38to regularly reach and crew the station.
17:41Without a crew, everything would degrade
17:44and become unstable quite quickly.
17:47And NASA has calculated that if the ISS
17:49were lifted to an orbit of about 800 km,
17:54it would have a potential lifetime of
17:55700 years.
17:58But, there the probability of a
18:01catastrophic impact breaking the station
18:03apart increases dramatically.
18:07The likelihood of an impact event, which
18:09is roughly estimated at 51 years at its
18:13current altitude, would drop to around 4
18:16years at a higher altitude.
18:18Any gain in lifespan from pushing the
18:21ISS into a higher orbit would be
18:24canceled out by the extreme risk of
18:26being struck by orbital debris,
18:28which could lead to complete
18:31fragmentation.
18:33And worse, all those smashed and
18:36disintegrating components could form a
18:38debris field that would compromise our
18:41safety in low Earth orbit or even
18:43prevent access to it altogether.
18:46Well, then, why not just let it fall to
18:49Earth?
18:50This seems like the cheap and easy
18:52solution.
18:53Left alone, and depending on solar
18:55events, it could take between 1 to 2
18:59years to slow down enough to fall back
19:01down to Earth.
19:03But, did you know there's a safe
19:05re-entry requirement? Yeah, the US
19:07government states that uncontrolled
19:10re-entering spacecraft must meet or
19:12exceed a 1 in 10,000 likelihood of
19:16public risks due to debris.
19:18Space junk is falling to Earth almost
19:20every day, but most of it we don't
19:22notice.
19:24An object the size of the ISS?
19:26Yeah, that would be noticeable.
19:29In 1979, the skies over Western
19:31Australia lit up with massive fireballs.
19:34Sonic booms were heard across the
19:36Outback. Skylab was returning to Earth
19:40in an uncontrolled reentering.
19:42At a whopping 76,000
19:45kg,
19:46it was the largest human-made object
19:48ever to fall to Earth at that point.
19:51Launched in 1973, Skylab was NASA's
19:55first space station. It was planned to
19:57last a decade, but
19:59the unexpected happened. Higher than
20:01predicted solar activity heated Earth's
20:04atmosphere, expanding it, and the
20:07increased drag on Skylab was
20:09dramatically shortening its life. Then,
20:12a planned visit to keep the station in
20:14orbit never materialized. A delay in the
20:17shuttle program meant there was no
20:19last-minute rescue for the doomed
20:21station.
20:23NASA did what it could to direct its
20:25fall, but ultimately couldn't control
20:27its reentering.
20:29It broke up a mere 16 km above Earth.
20:33The debris footprint stretched for an
20:35incredible 4,000 [music] km. Whole
20:39pieces of the station survived the heat
20:41of reentering. The biggest was an oxygen
20:44tank 2.4 m long. It would have weighed
20:471,270 kg before it hit Earth and broke
20:51in two.
20:52The town of Esperance, Australia,
20:55jokingly fined NASA for littering, but
20:57the risk to human life was serious.
21:01NASA paid close attention to that
21:03failure and
21:04doesn't want to make the same mistake
21:06twice.
21:07The $843 million contract with the
21:10demolition crew has been signed. The
21:12deorbit vehicle has already been
21:15ordered.
21:16Sometime soon after 2030, the ISS
21:19[music] will be propelled back to Earth
21:21in a spectacular human-made meteor
21:24shower. And it'll be the most
21:26extravagant and expensive [music]
21:29fireworks show of all time.
21:31NASA hasn't set a date or a specific
21:34[music] splash point yet, but the ISS
21:37will obviously be aimed at a spot least
21:39likely to cause harm
21:42death.
21:43Most likely a remote spot somewhere in
21:45the ocean.
21:46The most remote place in the world is
21:48known as Point Nemo and it's in the
21:50middle of the South Pacific roughly
21:523,000 [music]
21:53km from uninhabited land.
21:57The date is unknown, but tickets may
21:59soon be available to view the light
22:01show. In March of 2001, it was reported
22:04that people had paid an average of
22:06$6,500
22:08for seats on flights from the island of
22:10Fiji
22:11>> [music]
22:11>> across the Pacific Ocean to witness the
22:14re-entry of the Russian Mir space
22:16station.
22:17That was back before Instagram and
22:20>> [music]
22:20>> the full effect the internet has on mob
22:22events. By 2030, there'll be a lineup of
22:26thrill-seeking influencers lining up to
22:29try and get into the ISS burn zone.
22:32It feels like we're losing something
22:34irreplaceable. [music]
22:36The ISS has been responsible for
22:38scientific advances and medical
22:40research, improving drug designs for
22:43cancer, diabetes, and other diseases.
22:46The knowledge gift to the human race
22:48from this one space station is almost
22:51immeasurable.
22:53>> Every single day we are answering big
22:55questions about [music] Earth and about
22:57space, about where we came from and
22:58about where we're going. But the other
23:00thing that we're doing is we're learning
23:02more questions to ask.
23:04>> It serves as a testament to the fact
23:06that we can [music] and will work
23:08together as citizens of Earth when the
23:11goal is worthy.
23:14But the ISS is not the end. It's
23:19destruction is more of a beginning.
23:22The ISS was never meant to be permanent
23:25and with the winding down of the ISS,
23:28commercial ventures will take its place
23:30building their own space stations.
23:33Because NASA is putting all its
23:35resources and energy toward the next
23:37steps.
23:38And those next steps are giant leaps for
23:42mankind.
23:43NASA's already completed mission two of
23:45its Artemis project. Built on the
23:48science and experience gained from the
23:50ISS, the Artemis mission is to return to
23:54the moon and build a permanent base
23:56there.
23:57And after the moon base is established,
24:00infrastructure for manned exploration of
24:03Mars will be built.
24:05But
24:06that's a story
24:08for another
24:10What if?
24:14>> What was your favorite experiment on the
24:17International Space Station?
24:18>> Toby, great question. My favorite
24:21experiment was the one that I got to
24:22eat. It was us growing Hatch chili
24:24peppers in our plant habitat.
24:26>> Fish hook two on two, we have video in
24:29node one. Looks good. Those chili
24:30peppers.

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