Yes, AI Will Take Your Job. But What Happens NEXT Is Worse — Transcript
Full transcript
- 0:00Headline after headline is about yet
- 0:02another company laying off thousands of
- 0:04workers due to AI. If you're wondering
- 0:06what signs to look for to tell if you're
- 0:08about to be laid off, I'm going to
- 0:10explain step by step how exactly AI
- 0:12could take your job. This video is a
- 0:14scenario based on the intelligence
- 0:16curse, a deeply researched and widely
- 0:18circulating report in the AI industry.
- 0:20The Federal Reserve chairman Jerome
- 0:22Powell says the AI hiring apocalypse is
- 0:26real. Job creation is pretty close to
- 0:28zero. Let's imagine you're the CEO of a
- 0:31firm with a thousand employees, most of
- 0:33whom are junior or entry- level. A new
- 0:35AI company approaches you with a pitch.
- 0:37An AI [music] agent that can do the work
- 0:39of a junior employee for 1/5if of the
- 0:41cost. The more aggressive firms in your
- 0:44sector immediately fire most junior
- 0:46employees, but you're cautious. You're
- 0:48skeptical that this new AI can replace
- 0:50humans, so you treat it as a tool.
- 0:52Instead of outright replacing [music]
- 0:54humans, everything the AIs do is subject
- 0:57to human approval. But within months,
- 0:59the AI agents are outperforming most of
- 1:01your human employees. This comes as a
- 1:03shock to you. But the experts aren't
- 1:05surprised. From 2019 to 2025, the length
- 1:08of tasks AIs [music] could perform
- 1:10doubled every 7 months. This is just the
- 1:13trend continuing. And here's the thing,
- 1:15you might feel uneasy with these
- 1:17developments. But you can't get out of
- 1:18this situation because the more that
- 1:20your employees rely on the AI tool, the
- 1:22faster and better their work becomes. In
- 1:24fact, your top performers are now the
- 1:27ones who let the AI do everything before
- 1:28clicking approve. For basic tasks,
- 1:31humans in the loop aren't improving the
- 1:33work. They're slowing it down. And if
- 1:35you can see that, so can your board.
- 1:38Every day, more and more AIs join the
- 1:40workforce. The board is happy with the
- 1:42extra productivity, but not with the
- 1:44payroll. They have a question. Why
- 1:46aren't you firing the unproductive human
- 1:48employees? You argue to keep them on
- 1:50humanitarian grounds. You don't want
- 1:52your workers to be replaced by AI. The
- 1:54board isn't convinced, but you warned
- 1:56them that mass firings would be bad PR
- 1:58for the company, and that is enough to
- 2:00get the board off your back for now. End
- 2:03of quarter, your earnings are up, but
- 2:05your competitors, the ones who replaced
- 2:08humans entirely, have reported even
- 2:10higher earnings at a fraction of your
- 2:12costs. In any other economy, your
- 2:14results would be a win. But here, you're
- 2:17losing market share, and your stock
- 2:19price takes a massive hit. So, the board
- 2:21delivers an ultimatum. Fire the
- 2:24unproductive junior employees or we'll
- 2:26replace you with a new ruthless CEO who
- 2:28will replace all of your junior staff
- 2:30with AI. You know that you can't do any
- 2:32good if you get fired. So, saving some
- 2:34jobs is better than saving no jobs. So,
- 2:36you compromise, firing half your junior
- 2:39staff. You hang on to your own role and
- 2:41convince yourself that maybe someday, if
- 2:43the board allows it, you'll be able to
- 2:45hire all your old staff back. After all,
- 2:47no one else is hiring them, so they'll
- 2:49still be on the job market. But AI
- 2:51progress doesn't slow down. At this
- 2:53point, your managers are managing more
- 2:54AIs than humans. And every month, the AI
- 2:57agents improve, doing more and more
- 2:59work, while the human employees remain
- 3:01[music] stagnant. AI has set a new
- 3:03standard that all junior human employees
- 3:05are failing to live up to. So, the board
- 3:08wants you to fire all of them. You offer
- 3:09a compromise. All junior employees will
- 3:12be put on a performance improvement
- 3:14plan, giving them one last chance to
- 3:15prove their worth to the company and to
- 3:17prove that they can do the work that's
- 3:19just as good as AI. A month later, a
- 3:22tiny handful of exceptional junior
- 3:23employees who have proven their worth
- 3:26are promoted to management, but over 90%
- 3:28of them are fired. One of them is Alice.
- 3:31She begins searching for a new job, but
- 3:33finds that no one is hiring. All other
- 3:35firms in the sector are laying off staff
- 3:38as quickly as they can get away with.
- 3:40From her kitchen table, Alice scrolls
- 3:42through the headlines. [music] GDP is
- 3:44climbing. The stock market is booming
- 3:45under the new productivity gains from
- 3:47AI. And yet, unemployment rates are
- 3:50approaching 12%. Worse than any point
- 3:53since the Great Depression. She's just
- 3:55part of the statistic. And it's about to
- 3:57get worse. The new generation of AI
- 4:00agents doesn't just intend to replace
- 4:02the junior staff. It comes for the
- 4:04managers. These systems can coordinate
- 4:07entire teams of AIS, track every
- 4:09decision in real time, and optimize
- 4:12workflows with a precision no human
- 4:14manager can match. All at a fraction of
- 4:16the cost. When you look at your ORC
- 4:18chart, it's AIS managing AIS, and the
- 4:21numbers prove it works. At your next
- 4:23quarterly performance review, the
- 4:25numbers are better than ever, but the
- 4:26board is furious. To them, the results
- 4:29only confirm what they've been saying.
- 4:31Human managers can't compete. Your
- 4:34reluctance to cut them loose looks like
- 4:36weakness. Again, you offer a compromise.
- 4:38All human managers are now on a
- 4:40performance improvement plan. Prove you
- 4:42can be as good as an AI or lose your job
- 4:45for failing to meet standards. A month
- 4:46later, 90% of your human managers are
- 4:49gone. At this point, unemployment has
- 4:51passed 15%, [music] rapidly approaching
- 4:5320%, with job loss numbers five times
- 4:56worse than the Great Recession. Yet, the
- 4:58stock market keeps rising thanks to AI
- 5:00field productivity. For Alice, now 6
- 5:02months into her failed job hunt, the
- 5:04message is clear. No one's coming to
- 5:06save her. So, she decides to fight back.
- 5:09She joins rallies, writes opeds, and
- 5:11throws her voice behind one big idea:
- 5:14UBI, a universal basic income that would
- 5:17guarantee every citizen $1,000 a month.
- 5:20It sounds like hope, but the backlash is
- 5:22immediate. Critics point out that $1,000
- 5:24per month for every citizen would eat up
- 5:26twothirds of the budget, sending the
- 5:28country further into debt while
- 5:30rewarding people for not working. Some
- 5:32economists take Alice's side, offering
- 5:34justifications for UBI. They say the
- 5:37increased tax revenue from GDP growth
- 5:39will cover it and inflation will
- 5:40effectively reduce the national debt.
- 5:42But the debate ends when the US
- 5:44administration's AISAR weighs in. His
- 5:46verdict is blunt. UBI is a utopian
- 5:49fantasy and the administration will veto
- 5:51any bill proposing it. Alice is
- 5:53devastated, but no one is surprised. The
- 5:56AISAR's comments perfectly echo what he
- 5:58said back in June 2025. The left
- 6:00envisions a posteconomic order in which
- 6:03people stop working and instead receive
- 6:05government benefits. In other words,
- 6:07everyone on welfare. This is their
- 6:09fantasy. It's not going to happen. For
- 6:11Alice, the fight feels over. For AI,
- 6:14it's just [music] beginning. The same
- 6:16month the UBI bill dies, AI clears its
- 6:19next milestone. In 2025, it could handle
- 6:22tasks that took hours. Now the newest
- 6:24generation can run monthsl long projects
- 6:27without any human input or oversight.
- 6:29The board has seen AI replace and
- 6:31surpass all junior level employees, all
- 6:34middle managers, all senior managers.
- 6:36Now all that's left is the executives in
- 6:38the seauite. They stop short of firing
- 6:40all of you outright, leaving you on the
- 6:42org chart in name only. Every day you
- 6:45participate in the humiliating ritual of
- 6:47coming to the office to review the AI's
- 6:50work. And each day with increasing
- 6:52horror, you realize that the AI is doing
- 6:54a better job than you could ever
- 6:55possibly hope to. After all, how could
- 6:57it not? The AI has more knowledge than
- 6:59you. It has more training than you. And
- 7:01because the AI CEO can monitor every
- 7:03single decision made within the company
- 7:05with perfect accuracy, it has insight
- 7:07into operations that no human ever could
- 7:09match. Unemployment smashes through 25%,
- 7:12[music] breaking every historical
- 7:13record, even the worst days of the Great
- 7:15Depression. On the same day that the S&P
- 7:17500 hits a new all-time high with record
- 7:20stock [music] growth,
- 7:23Ellis's landlord is taking her to court
- 7:25to evict her family from the house she's
- 7:27called home for the past decade. So, she
- 7:30jumps on a bus to Washington DC and
- 7:32joins a 100,000 people swarming the
- 7:34National Mall, chanting, "Humans first!"
- 7:36and waving UBI banners. But you wouldn't
- 7:38know it from the news. TV networks
- 7:40barely mention it. On social platforms,
- 7:43live stream links vanish from feeds
- 7:45under the guise of violence prevention
- 7:47and misinformation. The same censorship
- 7:50playbook, authoritarian states perfected
- 7:52years ago in the pre-ai era. America,
- 7:54[music] the world's oldest democracy,
- 7:57claims to still have free speech, but
- 7:59the online platforms that control the
- 8:01spread of information silence the
- 8:03protest. Turnout at the next [music]
- 8:04rally plummets. Families keep losing
- 8:07jobs. healthcare and homes, but the
- 8:09story almost fades from public view.
- 8:11Alice can't believe what she's seeing,
- 8:13but when she tries to talk to her
- 8:14neighbors, they brush her off. Keep up
- 8:16with the job search. Sometimes the job
- 8:18market is hard. Half the people she
- 8:21talks to refuse to believe her when she
- 8:23says that this [music] time it's
- 8:24different. Alice then realizes something
- 8:26that has always been true. People's
- 8:28politics aren't driven by numbers,
- 8:30they're driven by vibes. And the vibes
- 8:32during Alice's most recent protest are
- 8:34all about the breakup between a pop star
- 8:37and her star athlete boyfriend with
- 8:39millions of posts arguing over who's to
- 8:41blame. As if that mattered more than the
- 8:43collapse of the job market. And while
- 8:45the public obsesses over celebrity
- 8:47drama, the real drama is unfolding in
- 8:49the boardroom and it's about to land
- 8:51squarely on your desk. You're still the
- 8:53CEO technically, but the board calls you
- 8:56in to confirm what you've already
- 8:57suspected. The AI is doing your job
- 8:59better than you ever could. Your company
- 9:01is now run by an AI CEO. It makes every
- 9:04decision, flawlessly executes them,
- 9:07monitors every part of the business with
- 9:08perfect precision, and works 24/7
- 9:11without pause. It has beaten every
- 9:13target the board set. You're only human,
- 9:15and that makes you obsolete. The stock
- 9:17market keeps climbing, but only AI
- 9:20companies selling to other AI companies
- 9:22are breaking records. The rest, the ones
- 9:25selling food, clothing, or anything
- 9:27meant for humans, are drying up. With
- 9:3025% unemployment and rising poverty,
- 9:32there's simply less [music] profit in
- 9:34selling to humans. Politicians take
- 9:36note. Most of the government's tax
- 9:38revenue, and most of their campaign
- 9:40donations are coming from AI firms and
- 9:42their shareholders, so the AI economy
- 9:44that funds them becomes their main
- 9:46constituency. In the years to come,
- 9:49public schools crumble. With no need to
- 9:51prepare a new generation for the
- 9:52workforce, why should public schools be
- 9:54anything more than glorified daycare?
- 9:56Instead of reading and math classes,
- 9:58kids now spend all day watching AI
- 10:01generated entertainment served by a
- 10:03screen that's cheaper than a teacher
- 10:05with an education degree. The few
- 10:06remaining universities are exclusivemies
- 10:09for the children of elites, hearkening
- 10:11back to the pre-industrial days of the
- 10:1418th century when less than 1% of people
- 10:16received a university education. And
- 10:18with AI driving all innovation and
- 10:20productivity, upward mobility has now
- 10:22been completely eliminated. The only
- 10:25wealthy people left are those who
- 10:27acquired their wealth prior to the AI
- 10:29takeover of the economy or those who
- 10:32inherited it.
- 10:34This scenario might seem far-fetched,
- 10:36but it doesn't take [music] much for
- 10:38this dystopia to become a reality. For
- 10:41this scenario to work, you only [music]
- 10:42have to believe in a few things. AI will
- 10:45continue improving up to and past the
- 10:48point of human intelligence.
- 10:51Running a human level AI will eventually
- 10:53be cheaper than paying a human for the
- 10:56same job.
- 10:58Private companies exist to maximize
- 11:00profit and when given the chance will
- 11:03replace human employees with AI. Even
- 11:06the firms that initially resist will
- 11:08eventually be forced by competitive
- 11:10pressure to replace humans with AI.
- 11:14The media will be or is already largely
- 11:17controlled by corporations that have the
- 11:19mechanisms to throttle the spread of
- 11:21ideas that they see as destabilizing.
- 11:23The government is also driven by
- 11:25incentives. And in a world where most
- 11:27tax revenue comes from AI firms, it will
- 11:30largely cater to the interests of AI. Do
- 11:33any of those sound implausible to you in
- 11:35the next 5 years? Think about how
- 11:37different the world was 5 years ago
- 11:39before the emergence of AI tools like
- 11:41chatbt. You might argue, well, we've
- 11:43been here before. Every wave of
- 11:45disruptive technology has always
- 11:47replaced some jobs, but people have
- 11:49always found some new ones. And you'd be
- 11:51right. AI isn't the first time we've
- 11:53seen a new technology threaten to
- 11:54replace human labor. But AI is unique
- 11:57because the companies building it have
- 11:58[music] explicitly made it their goal to
- 12:00replace all human labor. Open AI
- 12:03literally made it part of their founding
- 12:05charter.
- 12:07And to make matters [music] worse, AI
- 12:08can accelerate the spread of the paradox
- 12:11of plenty. When technology or resources
- 12:13make a country richer while keeping most
- 12:16of the citizens poorer by concentrating
- 12:18wealth in the hands of a few individuals
- 12:20and corporations, we've already seen it
- 12:23with oil and minerals. Why is Venezuela,
- 12:25owner of the world's largest oil
- 12:27reserves, enduring near famine
- 12:30conditions? Why is the Congo sitting on
- 12:32trillions of dollars in mineral wealth
- 12:34while its people are among the poorest
- 12:36[music] in the world? Or look at
- 12:38Nigeria, Africa's biggest oil producer
- 12:41with an appalling poverty rate of 47%.
- 12:44This is the resource [music] curse. Oil,
- 12:47diamonds, and gold can make a country
- 12:49rich on paper, yet individual citizens
- 12:51can still go hungry. In fact, when a
- 12:54country's wealth is more concentrated in
- 12:56a single extractive industry, it becomes
- 12:59a natural recipe for corruption. Whoever
- 13:02owns the oil rigs or diamond mines has
- 13:04all the money they need to buy off the
- 13:06generals, judges, and media. But how can
- 13:08we avoid this? The countries that
- 13:10escaped the resource curse were the ones
- 13:13that had human-driven industries, where
- 13:15the wealth wasn't owned by a single
- 13:17person and dug out of the ground, but
- 13:20created by human labor.
- 13:22Countries like Taiwan or South Korea
- 13:25didn't have a natural resource jackpot.
- 13:28The only way that these countries could
- 13:30become richer and more powerful was by
- 13:32investing in their people. Giving people
- 13:34access to food, nutrition, and schools
- 13:36so that they'd grow up to be more
- 13:38productive citizens capable of designing
- 13:40better smartphones, [music]
- 13:41microchips, and entertainment. When your
- 13:43biggest industries rely on human talent,
- 13:46the humans have the bargaining power to
- 13:47demand [music] better living conditions.
- 13:49But now AI threatens to take that
- 13:51leverage away. It could do what oil did
- 13:54to countries like Venezuela and Russia,
- 13:56concentrating power and wealth in the
- 13:58hands of a small number of corrupt
- 13:59oligarchs at the expense of everyone
- 14:01else. A kind of wealth that benefits the
- 14:04few while making everyone else poorer.
- 14:06In a world where AI can do everyone's
- 14:08job for less money, humans have no
- 14:11leverage, no bargaining power to demand
- 14:13a higher minimum wage. This is called
- 14:16the intelligence curse.
- 14:19We want a future where AI uplifts humans
- 14:23without [music] replacing humans. So,
- 14:25how do we prevent AI from replacing us?
- 14:27What are the things we should let AI do?
- 14:29And what are [music] the things we
- 14:30shouldn't let it do?
- 14:32We need to keep an eye on three [music]
- 14:34things. Whether AI is intelligent,
- 14:36whether it's autonomous, and whether
- 14:38it's general. We can have a highly
- 14:41intelligent AI that is good at only one
- 14:43specific thing. Take Alphafold, the AI
- 14:46that won the Nobel Prize in chemistry in
- 14:482024. It's good at one specific thing,
- 14:51predicting protein structures. It takes
- 14:53research that might have taken months or
- 14:56years and accomplishes it in hours. It's
- 14:58a massive scientific breakthrough, but
- 15:00Alpha Fold is only good at one specific
- 15:02thing. It helps medical research, and it
- 15:05doesn't threaten humanity's future. We
- 15:06can also have AIs that are intelligent
- 15:08and autonomous. Look at self-driving
- 15:10cars. Driving is a complex task that
- 15:13requires an advanced AI. to safely
- 15:14navigate the roads. And these cars are
- 15:16also autonomous, but they don't have
- 15:18general intelligence. A self-driving
- 15:20Whimo car is only good at one thing,
- 15:23driving. The part where AI becomes
- 15:25dangerous is when it becomes general. A
- 15:28general AI is good at everything. And
- 15:30we're getting closer to seeing general
- 15:31AI with LLMs and multimodal AIs like
- 15:34cloth and GBT. An AI with general
- 15:37intelligence could replace human workers
- 15:38at practically every job, which again is
- 15:41the goal that OpenAI openly admits to.
- 15:44But the danger isn't just that the AI
- 15:46will make humans irrelevant. A general
- 15:48intelligence that's good at everything
- 15:50could learn to improve itself or create
- 15:52new AIs. It can become more and more
- 15:54powerful exponentially until it [music]
- 15:57becomes a super intelligence, far
- 15:59smarter than even the smartest humans.
- 16:02AI scientists are terrified that this is
- 16:04not only possible but likely to happen.
- 16:08Watch this video next to understand
- 16:10[music] exactly how a super intelligent
- 16:12AI takeover might happen based on a
- 16:14famous report by AI researchers.
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