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XRP is Behaving Right on Schedule as the Bitcoin Price Chart and Altcoin Market Anticipate Macro — Transcript

by Blockchain Backer · 3,222 words · 447 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:13Hey, what's going on everybody? This is
0:16the Blockchain Backer bringing you the
0:19latest cryptocurrency news and analysis.
0:22Today we'll be taking a look over here
0:23at the total market cap of the
0:24cryptocurrency market along with the
0:26Bitcoin price chart as we sit at 81,400
0:29as I'm recording this morning while XRP
0:31sits at a$131. And we all sit here kind
0:34of twiddling our thumbs on what the next
0:36move is for Bitcoin after coming off the
0:38low there back in June, July into
0:40August. Prices pushing back above the
0:42May highs over here now. Just waddling,
0:45hey, will this be kind of short-lived?
0:47Will we step higher? try to get
0:48ourselves back into this
0:49pre-capitulation range and then maybe
0:51get stuck there for a little time. We'll
0:53kind of correct from where we are right
0:55now after ricocheting off the lows like
0:57we expected to happen here in August.
0:59It's all kind of a guessing game with us
1:01sitting here just kind of waiting for a
1:02little bit over a month now as we
1:04entered into this ranging area on
1:06September 20th. As I've mentioned
1:08throughout the videos of the last
1:09several months, conviction is going to
1:11matter here. For me, conviction is
1:12simply that we are beyond the bottom by
1:15every measurement imaginable. I think
1:17the last thing people were holding on to
1:19was to say, "Hey, will the new low come
1:21in September? Will it come on October
1:2310th or will we have a Black Monday
1:25event happen earlier this week?" The
1:27market's all just on edge. Everybody's
1:29real wishy-washy. Meanwhile, of course,
1:31we still sit here above the moving
1:33averages really teetering right there at
1:35that 50-day. However, of course, our
1:37100, 200, and 300 all sit well below
1:40just like we did back here back in 2023.
1:43coming off those lows. The breadth had
1:45finally opened for the market for the
1:46first time to break through these moving
1:48averages, but still, you know, we had to
1:50test some of this stuff and that's still
1:52up in the air. But of course, we've seen
1:53our breadth all open up in here. And
1:55that's just kind of the broader context
1:56of where we're at. And the image I've
1:58tried to paint for the last several
2:00weeks has been this is all the typical
2:01stuff that we do when we come off the
2:03lows. I think if people try to kind of
2:04get ahead of themselves a little bit and
2:06think, hey, finally there's some
2:08positive price action. The mood has
2:10changed. That means we go to the moon
2:12immediately but usually we work out a
2:14couple of steps. It's going to be some
2:16ranging action happen for quite some
2:18time. Major debate on will it happen
2:20from here? Will it happen from within
2:21this range? And then we just have to
2:23wait for most likely if we go based on
2:26how this market has behaved for the last
2:285 years being tied to this IGV seeing
2:30the tech software sector be able to
2:32catch a bid and break out potentially a
2:34rotation happening there from the United
2:36States stock market. And based on how
2:38this price action has behaved for the
2:40last several years, right, this is
2:41probably going to catch some type of
2:43lead first. And we don't have any signs
2:45from it yet that it's ready to do it yet
2:47or that ranging will still continue
2:49throughout in here before it can do it.
2:51And but usually before we can get
2:52extremely excited, we need to see
2:54something like this show up in macro
2:56markets first. Then we look to Bitcoin
2:58to say, "Let's go." And then we look to
3:00the altcoin market after that to say,
3:01"It's time to rock and roll." Till then,
3:03we're still just going to be kind of
3:04stuck in this waiting game to see if
3:06there's still one more push up or does
3:08the broader range develop from where
3:09we're at right now. Really, every week I
3:11come on here and I say, "Well, hopefully
3:12we can find our answer and there's
3:14something incredibly obvious to show
3:15up." Uh, but now this has been two whole
3:18weeks and still it just still continues
3:19to sit in there. We've technically been
3:21in this range right in here for 16 days,
3:24just going up and down to the top and
3:26bottom of it. So, that's been kind of
3:27our story. And so I apologize for things
3:30kind of sounding repetitive, but it's
3:31hard when obviously we just get stuck.
3:33However, when we look at things from the
3:34context of like XRP over the course of
3:37an entire bare market and where we're
3:38at, it's kind of crazy to think that,
3:40you know, we've really been tracking
3:41this stuff for quite some time over in
3:43here. Then we go into our capitulation
3:45event. We know that accumulation
3:47schematics can act very different, but
3:48then we do get our onchain signals, our
3:50Bitcoin signals, everything to point to
3:53that being the low. However, of course,
3:54we're all looking for things to pop up
3:56higher and escape from here. relieve the
3:58XRP community from the depths of
4:00despair. However, it's acting really
4:02just exactly like how you would expect
4:04at a low. We can see timewise, usually
4:07these things last an equivalent like in
4:10in current times, the amount of time it
4:12lasts would maybe December to be able to
4:14see a pop out of here. I'm terrible at
4:16predicting time. Don't expect me to be
4:18able to predict time. But for those who
4:20are thinking, oh, things are acting
4:21differently or uh if you're feeling
4:23incredibly beaten down by the market,
4:25just know that's what markets do, right?
4:27Markets have a tendency to create a lot
4:29of excitement and everybody singing
4:31kumbaya, holding hands, playing oh, pump
4:33it up. It's a dopamine rush. And then at
4:36the same time, markets have a tendency
4:37to beat the crowd down. Whether that's
4:40from fear and panic of prices falling
4:42really hard or from prices just drawing
4:45out for an extended period of time. The
4:47depths that we've seen the prices this
4:48chart fall to are in no way out of
4:51historical norms. And if anything, it's
4:53been one of the more shallow bare
4:55markets that we've seen for XRP. And the
4:57amount of time spent here in the
4:59accumulation schematic is no different
5:01than anything we've ever seen. But
5:03structurally, it even looks like what
5:05you would kind of expect to see at a
5:07low. We can look at Bitcoin back here in
5:092022 and what the bottom of the market
5:12looked like. But you'll notice too that
5:14price ricochets back to the resistance
5:16just as we've seen over here for XRP in
5:202026. Then there becomes a stall out to
5:22attempt to try to break that range and
5:24then build a new range boundary which
5:26conceptually are the same ideas that we
5:28talk about in here that we build a range
5:30you break from a range and then you make
5:32a new range boundary. These are just
5:34common concepts of climbing a wall of
5:37worry and stairstepping your way up and
5:39the price action that we're seeing and
5:40how it's behaving is no different than
5:42what we typically see. kind of have to
5:44be a flashback for those remembering
5:46what the crashing structure looks like.
5:48But a lot of times we'll see a crashing
5:49structure like this. One, two, three,
5:51four, and rolls back up to wave four
5:53within wave five crashes and then we see
5:56an ABC show up in here. Whether this
5:59ends up being a running flat or a true
6:01classic ABC correction, that would be
6:05exactly what we have happening here
6:07after going through our full-blown
6:09crashing structure. wave four within
6:10wave five, the final low right back up
6:13to the resistance and then kind of the
6:15stall out with an ABC in here. Uh it'll
6:18be difficult to know will it wick down
6:20lower in here like we did over in here
6:21for Bitcoin back in 2023 where there's
6:24kind of like a a panic button hit there
6:26for the market. Everybody freaks out and
6:28then whoop right back up and finally we
6:30escape that range and build on top of
6:32the of the new range boundary. XRP has
6:34done this many times in the past and
6:36I've often referenced this chart right
6:38in here for a crashing structure and
6:39what a bottoming formation looks like
6:41when teaching the crashing structure
6:43whether here on the YouTube channel of
6:44course that all of this is our classic
6:47crashing structure wave four within wave
6:50five there's our new low and then we
6:51push back to the resistance level and
6:53then you ABC and this is just the
6:56classic thing that happens in here after
6:58getting back to that resistance and then
7:00what happens we build a support on top
7:02of that area to then be able to
7:05eventually go higher, right? And that's
7:06what we're talking about in here, that
7:08we usually tend to go back to the top of
7:10this range, right? Build a support,
7:12break from it, and then build a new
7:14range after that. And that this price
7:16action that we see in here is no
7:17different than what we typically do see.
7:19I do get it. After time, people
7:21emotionally do tend to get a little bit
7:23exhausted. That's what markets do. They
7:25create a lot of excitement, a lot of
7:27euphoria, a lot of dopamine rushes, and
7:30then of course it takes all of that away
7:31and people start losing their faith.
7:33Their thesises start to fade and that's
7:35just due to price action and due to
7:37time. However, the market's acting
7:39exactly as you would expect and nothing
7:41in here is unique to any other time
7:44period that we've had in the past. That
7:46this is precisely what we've seen happen
7:48in multiple cycles. And the price
7:50behavior is really right on par for what
7:52you would expect for a low. And given
7:54enough time, I do think at some point in
7:562026, we'll see this range get left.
7:58We'll start building a new range on top
8:00of here. Maybe it'll end up being a
8:02Christmas rally to do it right there at
8:04the end of the year. Very hard to
8:05predict time, but certainly what we're
8:06seeing happen in here is not unique to
8:08any other time period, nor is it unique
8:10to any type of recovery structure. And
8:12exactly what we see happen all the time.
8:14But we're still just left in a waiting
8:15game for the entire picture when it
8:17comes to the bigger context of when can
8:19we see expansions, when can we see all
8:21seasons. Because for me, yeah, shifting
8:22up in a range for XRP is cool and all.
8:25Like, it's not still not an action zone
8:27for me, right? If we shift up higher,
8:29it's not like I'm buying in there. It's
8:31not like I'm selling in there. Of
8:32course, I'm waiting for the market
8:33conditions to be favorable for an
8:35explosive move to happen in the
8:36cryptocurrency market for like a real
8:38alt season to come out. And so a lot of
8:40it's still going to depend on paying
8:41attention to Bitcoin to see, you know,
8:43how can we establish a range, when can
8:45we get the IGV to break out, and then
8:47how can we see those series of events
8:49transpire that we typically see where we
8:51see macro do something, then we end up
8:53seeing Bitcoin do something, and then at
8:55the end we see the altcoin market follow
8:57right along. And I've shown examples of
8:58that in my last several videos. And so
9:00it's more of just a patience game,
9:02waiting for the elements of the market
9:04to kind of manifest themselves, digest,
9:06get all set. I think a move like this
9:08and escaping from this range will
9:09obviously relieve a lot of sentiment
9:12that's happening out there in the
9:13cryptocurrency market. But still, we're
9:15going to be waiting on that bigger
9:16moment where we have macro Bitcoin and
9:18then the altcoin market expansion. And
9:20those typically take a few phases to
9:21play out first, which I've explained in
9:23the last couple of videos and of course
9:25went into depths in the newsletters. So,
9:27another week where we just kind of get
9:28stuck here in the crypto market, but
9:30certainly nothing unusual happening. And
9:33I think that's the big takeaway from all
9:35of it. We spent, you know, weeks leading
9:36up to all this saying conviction is
9:38going to matter. The best thing I can do
9:39for you here is to say, look, none of
9:41that stuff has changed when it comes to
9:42the bottom. The conviction, people are
9:44going to get wobbly. There's low
9:45conviction capital that had to enter
9:47after getting wrongfooted at the bottom.
9:49But certainly, the market is still right
9:50on queue. Everything looks fine. And uh
9:52prepare for ranges, prepare for the wall
9:54of worry, prepare for stairstepping. And
9:57that will be kind of our story until we
9:59get the elements to play out where we
10:01can see some type of expansion happen
10:03like we saw back in late 2024, right?
10:05Extra period is time you may send. We
10:07had the exact formula lined up that that
10:10marks those moments when that happens.
10:12And what was that formula? It was macro
10:14and then that was Bitcoin. And when
10:16those two things were happening
10:17simultaneously, it just is what always
10:20happens next in crypto. It's not hype.
10:22It's just a historical data set that we
10:24have that shows how the market tends to
10:26operate. And so for our historical data
10:28set, we are following right on track of
10:30what a bottom looks like, what a
10:32recovery looks like, how the sentiment
10:33is really washy when we go into the wall
10:35over a climb. But ultimately, we are
10:38looking for some other elements to show
10:39up for us to scream alt season, right?
10:42And so that's the kind of focus what
10:43we're at. We're looking for more
10:44development to happen. And with us stuck
10:46here since September 20th, we're just
10:47waiting for at least some type of new
10:49price action to be able to play out.
10:51Now, if you caught markets in the
10:52morning, I mentioned there will not be a
10:53markets in the morning next week. There
10:55also won't be videos next week because
10:57every year I go to two to three
10:58conferences to get my feet on the
11:00ground. It's very easy to be a keyboard
11:02warrior over there on X or Twitter. Uh
11:04but it's a different story to get there
11:06in person, shake hands, talk to people,
11:08get a real sense of what's going on in
11:10the crypto market. You can become very
11:12convinced of false realities if your
11:14entire reality is painted to you on
11:16YouTube or on X. So I tend to do these
11:18every year. I haven't been to one in a
11:19while. The last one was XRP Las Vegas.
11:21The one prior to that was wave of
11:23innovation there in Sydney. So you'll
11:25just have to catch me over there on X
11:27for the next week. And hopefully that
11:29week gives us some time for some price
11:31action to transpire throughout the
11:32crypto market and at least tell us, hey,
11:34where are we going to be developing a
11:35range? Can we get some type of clear
11:37fivewave impulse to the upside to say
11:39we're going to do it from 95,000 or can
11:41we get something clear to say, hey,
11:43we're going to do it right here. Right
11:44now that seems a little bit indecisive,
11:46but in the grand scheme of everything,
11:48that's really where the focus has to be,
11:50right? onchain, technicals, everything.
11:53We're beyond the bottom. It's the wall
11:54of worry. There's going to be several
11:55ranges on the way up. And this is
11:57nothing unusual. Often it doesn't give
11:59that big dopamine hit that everybody is
12:01looking for. So, you get exhausted cuz
12:04if you're on X all the time, it's like,
12:06oh, this is super bullish news. Whoa,
12:08totally think things are going to happen
12:10soon. But you get you get hit with that
12:12messaging all the time to try to get
12:14your morale up a little bit. Uh, but
12:15this is all typical regular behavior.
12:17So, we'll wait on it. We'll see how
12:19things transpire throughout the rest of
12:20the month. And of course, I'll report
12:22back to you guys my thoughts on Swell.
12:24So, if you don't know what Swell is,
12:25it's hosted by Ripple, typically leading
12:28up to Swell. Content creators in X go
12:31kind of crazy speculating that there's
12:33going to be some crazy news drop that
12:35happens there that's going to make XRP
12:37go to the moon. Uh, it's every year that
12:39people think that. Usually, there's
12:40there's nothing revolutionary that gets
12:42announced at these things. So, don't
12:44anticipate that there's some major news
12:46announcement that's going to happen. I'm
12:47also not paid to go to this. I do have
12:49to fork up the cash myself. New York
12:51City is not cheap, so I'm just going on
12:53my own free will. So, all right. I'm
12:55going to go ahead and wrap this thing up
12:56and check in with you guys soon. If
12:58you're not following me on X, follow me
13:00at BC Backer. That'll be the best way to
13:02get updates from me for the next week.
13:04Of course, check out the newsletter over
13:06here. I just published this one. The
13:07early phases of a bull market with the
13:09same historical setup is taking shape in
13:11Bitcoin and altcoins. The next dynamic
13:13phase and behind the scenes data. Again,
13:15talking a lot about these phases when
13:16we're going through these walls of
13:18worry, the order of operations things
13:20tend to go in and then showing some of
13:22the metrics that I have behind the
13:23scenes when it comes to engagement rates
13:25or website traffic uh that really kind
13:28of show the transitions that happen when
13:30we're at the peaks of bull markets and
13:31there's a massive bearish divergence in
13:33sentiment and number of users in the
13:36market and then the huge divergence that
13:37has happened here at the low that
13:39there's a very obvious change that has
13:41happened here in the market again
13:43insinuating we're beyond the bottom. So,
13:45that's available over here at
13:46blockchainbacker.substack.com.
13:48It also includes a 43minute audio
13:50recording that I personally record.
13:52There's a link down here in the
13:53description of this video to the
13:55newsletter or you can go directly within
13:56your browser to
13:57blockchainbacker.substack.com.
14:00Otherwise, guys, have yourselves a
14:01wonderful weekend and I'll check in with
14:03you soon. That's it. Thank you so much
14:04for watching. If you could please like
14:06this video and give it a thumbs up. If
14:09you are new to the channel, please
14:10subscribe and hit the notification bell
14:12so you could be notified of when I
14:14create new content and when I go live.
14:16As always, this is not investment advice
14:18and I am not a financial adviser, but if
14:20you ever need a pickme up or a little
14:22bit of reassurance, just remember that
14:24the blockchain backers got your back.
14:28Have a good one.

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