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WWT Championship | Fantasy Golf Preview & Picks, Sleepers, Data - DFS Golf & DraftKings — Transcript

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0:00What's up guys? Rick here with your
0:01preview for this week's Worldwide
0:03Technology Championship. We have moved
0:05from Vanta Viarta to Cabo Cabo San
0:09Lucas. Uh I like Cabo. I I do. We went
0:12there on our honeymoon. Uh yeah. Okay.
0:15Anyway, uh long story short, this is the
0:18second leg of the Mexico swing. So,
0:20we've got what? Three events to go on
0:23the the fall portion of the schedule,
0:25right? We've got this one. We've got the
0:26Austin Championship for next week which
0:27just got a presented by sponsorship
0:30compliance solutions. So that event has
0:33already gone good good to Austin to
0:37Austin Championship presented by
0:39Compliance Solutions. Great. And then we
0:41get the RSM Classic uh to round out the
0:43fall. So three more events in the three
0:46and done. Also worth noting the 10K
0:50listener league that we have for this
0:52week locked and loaded. already 68 of
0:54you have joined. That's one golfer from
0:56each of six tiers. Very, very fun stuff.
0:58I donate my $100 uh to this contest
1:02every single week. And the other thing I
1:04wanted to start, you know, I I love the
1:06idea of transparently building Rick
1:08RunGood V2, right? Like there's this
1:11concept of like building building out in
1:12the open, building publicly when you're
1:14a founder, when you're a creator because
1:16it just lets people like provide
1:19feedback and like all this stuff. and
1:20and it's not something I've really done
1:22in the past, but like I kind of like it.
1:23So, just real quick, um since the last
1:25time we spoke a week ago, I've
1:27implemented probably a dozen more
1:28things. I mean, it's just small stuff at
1:30this point, but uh a lot of this is
1:32based on your feedback. So, so keep it
1:34coming. So, I'll just point out a couple
1:35of things. The the head-to-head matchups
1:38tool, um there is the ability now to
1:41pick a group at the top. You don't see
1:43it now because the groups aren't out
1:44yet. The tea times aren't out yet. So,
1:46that's easier to do. There was also a
1:49request to put the um the course fit
1:53percentile into the radar chart which I
1:55thought was fantastic. So basically
1:56taking the course fit um course profile
2:00correlation and then dropping it on the
2:03head-to-head matchup so that you could
2:04see players and how that I thought that
2:05was I thought that was fantastic. And
2:07then I also implemented the forecast
2:09which is my new modeling system um into
2:13the head-to-head matchup. So, this is
2:14what runs the tournament predictor
2:16engine and it actually runs a lot of the
2:17stuff. It runs the um I mean it
2:20simulates the golf tournament 10,000
2:21times and and you know gives you the
2:23fantasy projections and all that stuff.
2:24So, that is now available in the
2:27head-to-head matchup tool as well. So,
2:28you can run simulations and and see that
2:30information. Um what else? I think there
2:33was oh this one will be this one's kind
2:35of fun. So you can do now on the cheat
2:38sheet and the custom model you can look
2:39at both values and ranks and sort
2:41accordingly which uh was a request from
2:44a user which I thought was good. There's
2:45there's there's more uh probably a lot
2:48more but those are the ones that come
2:50top of mind. All right, let's get into
2:53it for this week. Uh El Cardinal. This
2:56is a resort course. This is I mean this
2:58is a Tiger Woods design. Um so this is a
3:01a fairly new course. It's less than 15
3:03years old. I no I did not play this. I
3:06played Cababell Do Soul. I did not play
3:08El Cardinal. Um it's a resort course.
3:11It's wide open. Okay. So So here's what
3:13you've got here. You've got this uh uh
3:15you know 80 yard wide fairways or
3:17whatever where you are
3:21not going to miss the fairway. Okay. So
3:23so nearly a 90% clip of guys hitting
3:28fairways. Now I I will note we don't
3:30have shot link. There's only this is
3:32only the fourth year that this event has
3:34been played at El Cardinal. Remember
3:36this was the Makoba event and then uh
3:39Liv got myoba and uh the PJ tour is like
3:43well we can't go to Makoba anymore so
3:45we've we've got to find a new place and
3:46they and they did they did El Cardinal.
3:48Um so we only have three years of data
3:51here and we don't have shot link data.
3:52Now the PJ tour has done a really good
3:54job of getting shot link to places that
3:57we haven't had it before. I mean, think
3:59of what Bermuda end last week, right?
4:02Places that normally wouldn't have shot
4:03Link had shot link. So, we don't have it
4:05going back, but I think we're going to
4:06have it moving forward. Um, this is a
4:09golf course where nearly 90% of players
4:11hit the fairway, but missing the fairway
4:14is the most penal miss on the PGA Tour.
4:18So, nearly 34 of a stroke if you miss
4:22the fairway. It's not going to happen a
4:24lot, but if it happens, it's going to be
4:26a pretty big penalty. So that means uh
4:29you're getting into like sand, you're
4:30getting into like native area, you're
4:32getting into like the ugly stuff that
4:34you see because there's, you know,
4:35there's really no rough, there's no it's
4:36it's just wide open, one cut of grass,
4:39like all that fun stuff. Um even without
4:42having the um the shot link data, we can
4:46still run the course correlation which
4:49is you know uh looking at every type of
4:52player on the PGA tour, looking at each
4:54golf course and then kind of building
4:56the correlation between what do players
4:59do well who have success at each golf
5:01course. We don't need shot link to do
5:03that. Um it's nice if we have it, but we
5:05don't need it. So, what this points out
5:09is like a ton of putting. Um, these are
5:14not all great stats, right? They all
5:16have a little bit of flaws in them, but
5:17when you start to read through, you you
5:20understand why putting shows up so much,
5:22right? So, you have like putting from 3
5:24feet, that alone, not a great stat.
5:26Putting from 20 to 25 feet, not great by
5:28itself. putts per round, putts inside 10
5:31feet, putts from five to 10 feet, putts
5:33from four feet. None of them by
5:35themselves are all that great. Putts per
5:37round, fine. It's not a great stat, but
5:39whatever. But those being the six
5:43highest ranked
5:45uh correlated stats says putting is
5:49important, right? I mean, so so the way
5:51that reads is, you know, putts per
5:52round, 10th out of 55. There's only nine
5:55other courses on the PGA Tour schedule
5:56where guys that are good in putts per
5:59round have a higher correlated uh
6:01correlation to success than L Card and
6:03all. Okay. So, when you've get a a bunch
6:05of you six putting stats, then launch
6:08angle and then one putt percentage
6:11and then you start going down, it's
6:12like, okay, um you know, birdie average
6:15is kind of the next one that pops up.
6:16Three putt avoided strokes. I mean, it's
6:18just all putting. It is all putting and
6:20it is all birdie or better. Um, now I
6:23don't think that that's necessarily
6:26the only way to get it done. Um, but
6:30that makes a ton of sense, right? This
6:33is a go like
6:35if if if everyone hits the fairway and
6:38distance is not like a huge correlator
6:41to success,
6:43are guys going to be able to separate
6:45themselves off the tea? Sure, but not as
6:48much, right? there's not going to be
6:50that wide range of outcomes off the tea.
6:53Um approach play, you know, you've got
6:56huge greens, 8,300 square feet that run
7:00relatively slow pass poll 10.7 on the
7:04stimp and the really only protection
7:06might be wind, which you're probably
7:08going to get perfect weather again and
7:10you're going to have to get to 2720 like
7:11so. So is any are guys going to separate
7:13themselves with approach play? Yeah, but
7:15there's not going to be a huge range.
7:17And then around the green, are guys
7:20going to separate themselves there?
7:21Well, no. There's not enough
7:22opportunities. And the greens are
7:23massive. So, there's not a lot of guys
7:25that are missing greens in general. So,
7:27where can they separate themselves?
7:30Putts. Putting uh where when you have to
7:35get to 27 under, you got to be able to
7:37score, right? So, it makes sense both
7:40from a eye test and kind of a
7:42statistical standpoint that this might
7:45turn into a putting contest and it just
7:47might be a putting contest. So, we'll
7:49keep that in mind as we get to the
7:51custom model and everything later. Um,
7:54this is the cheat sheet. So, we've got
7:56three golfers over $10,000 for this
7:58week. Jackson K, Ryan Gerard, Ben
8:00Griffin. Then we've got a bunch at in
8:02the 9K range. Probably worth noting that
8:05um the odds board is pretty wide open
8:08this week. There's like 15 guys between
8:12Jackson Ko or like Ryan Gerard is like
8:1514 to1 and then Ben Griffin's like 15
8:17to1. Jackson Corin's like 16 to1
8:19something like that. But there's like 15
8:21guys between
8:23that and 29 under or uh 29 to1.
8:26basically just a huge middle range which
8:28I think is saying this is pretty wide
8:31open for a lot of different players. So,
8:34um let's go through this together. So,
8:35we've got uh Ben Griffin back in action.
8:37He is the uh the defending champion. I
8:40was pretty heavily invested in Ben
8:42Griffin last week. It was fine. He
8:43finished T4. He kind of uh carried me in
8:46the in the three and done um thanks to
8:48Windham Clark missing the cut and uh
8:50Johnny Kefir missing the cut. Um so, he
8:53kind of carried me there. I didn't think
8:54it was a particularly great week for
8:56Ben. Uh he was reliant on the short game
8:59a lot. Uh in fact, he gained 5.7 strokes
9:02putting. He gained 3.9 around the green.
9:05He didn't drive it well. I saw a couple
9:07of spots where he kind of just just like
9:11he hit a ball in the water off the tea.
9:12Just like kind of silly stuff and he
9:14still finished T4. Um, now what I really
9:19liked to see was so, so the question
9:21about Ben Griffin, because we hadn't
9:23seen him in basically 3 months, two and
9:26a half months from the BMW championship
9:28till last week. The big question was
9:31whether or not he would be able to fix
9:32the putting because that was the one
9:34thing that was really holding him back
9:35and it was the one thing that was most
9:36uncharacteristic from him. And the
9:38answer was definitively yes, he did,
9:40right? I mean, he he gained seven six
9:43strokes putting. He was one of the
9:44better putters in the field last week.
9:45So, that is a big positive takeaway for
9:48me. Even though he did not he looked a
9:50little bit rusty in the in the longer
9:52game. Uh, now you go to a golf course
9:54where, you know, he gets another week of
9:56rounding into form, knocking the rust
9:58off. Um, putty is probably going to be
10:01more critical this week than it was last
10:02week. So, yeah, I like I'm back in on
10:06Ben Griffin. Um, probably in lineups
10:08that I have not that I did not use him
10:10in the three and done, I will probably
10:11use him there. There's a there's a
10:12chance I bet Ben Griffin. I don't know.
10:14There's a lot of good options. So, I'm
10:15not ready to commit to that just yet,
10:17but this is a really good spot for Ben
10:19in what felt it's crazy because it felt
10:22disappointing last week and he finished
10:23T4, which is which is outrageous. Um,
10:26Jackson, we'll go to Jackson Quinn next.
10:27So, he is the most expensive player
10:28here. He has had basically one bad start
10:30this year and it was the the week
10:32immediately following the President's
10:33Cup where he uh finished T65 after being
10:36pretty awesome at the President's Cup
10:37and has been awesome all year long. Um,
10:40so we have to ask the question, Jackson
10:43Ko, budding superstar. You know, where
10:44does he separate himself? Well, usually
10:46it's off the tea. Will he be able to do
10:48that this week? Yes, but not to the
10:50bigger extent, right? Because he's going
10:51to just do it with with distance and
10:53everybody's going to be accurate. How is
10:54he going to do it on approach? Yeah,
10:55he's he's he's very good on approach.
10:57Uh, and he's ve for being as young as he
10:59is, he's a very good putter. Um, now we
11:01did not see that at the Bank of Utah
11:03Championship, which is the last time we
11:04saw him. But again, I kind of give him a
11:05little bit of a pass for um, you know,
11:08showing up the week after the
11:09President's Cup, making the cut, and
11:11then just kind of really faltering on
11:13the weekend. I I imagine uh, as as tired
11:16as a 21-year-old can be, he was probably
11:18pretty pretty tired after after that
11:20week. The rest of his game is fantastic.
11:22He's going to be making his debut here
11:23in Cabo. There's nothing out there that
11:25worries me. Like, debutants are going to
11:27be just fine. I I I think course history
11:29is interesting but like by no means a
11:31prerequisite to success especially for
11:33some of the better players here. So um
11:36you know I'm burning I mean the three
11:39and done is such an interesting thing
11:40right because you know you don't you
11:41don't know how many times these guys are
11:42going to play but like if you're if
11:43you've got Jackson Quaven available
11:45you're probably burning them. If you've
11:46got um any I mean really any of these
11:49guys at the top you're you're you're
11:50probably you're probably burning them.
11:52Ryan Gerard is is the other guy over
11:5410K. And you know, it's difficult to
11:57find things that are wrong with these
12:00guys. They're all great players. They're
12:01all fantastic scorers. Um Ryan Gerard is
12:05probably the the weaker putter of the
12:07three. Um gives himself a lot of
12:09opportunities, but we've seen we we saw
12:11Ben Griffin get hot last week. We've
12:12seen Ben Ben Griffin be a great putter.
12:14Uh Gerard's a little streakier, maybe
12:16just a little bit lower in the in the
12:18percentile game, 76 percentile. But
12:21let's be real, all three of these guys
12:22are are are fantastic. If you made me
12:24choose, and I would say like to win the
12:27golf tournament, um,
12:31odds considered, I probably go Griffin,
12:35Quinn, Gerard, and it is incredibly
12:37tight. I'm not going to beat you up for
12:39doing really anything
12:42anything different at the top of the
12:43board. Now, the 9K range is really
12:45interesting here. We've got to look
12:46through some of these guys, but I still
12:47have this on the ranking here. You know,
12:49we've got like um Keith Mitchell who's
12:52coming off the the runner up at the Bay
12:54Current. Um not a very strong putter,
12:56right? 52nd in this field in strokes
12:59gain putting. Um you've got guys that
13:01are, you know, going to dominate off the
13:03tea like Marco Penge, but the closer he
13:06gets to the green and particular on the
13:07green, things get a little bit worse.
13:09That starts to worry me a little bit. Um
13:12we've got Ben James. We we've got to
13:14talk about him. We've got to talk about
13:15Bla1 Brown, but let's start with Harry
13:16Hall, who is a really strong putter.
13:19It's probably it is the best part of his
13:21game. Um, he is long enough off the tea,
13:25right? He's above average off the tea
13:26and he's not very accurate. So, we wipe
13:28away the the big issue that he has cuz
13:31accuracy is not going to be a problem.
13:32Distance fine. He gets a little bit of a
13:34boost there. Uh, he is going to have to
13:36give himself more opportunities than
13:39we've seen. Now, what I find interesting
13:40about Harry Hall is he is, you know, a
13:43uh statistically an average, maybe
13:45slightly above average approach player,
13:47but a lot of that was weighed down
13:50earlier in the in the year, right? So,
13:52if you go and look at his 2026, but he's
13:53played a lot of round there's there's
13:55guys in this in this field who've played
13:56like 30 times. Uh this is going to be
13:59Harry Hall's 29th start. There's a lot
14:01of action here. So, we've got a lot of
14:02data. Um Harry Hall started the year
14:05pretty bad on approach. Um and and from
14:08January through July it was it was bad
14:12and then he started to figure it out. So
14:14now we've got seven consecutive events
14:17in which he's gained strokes on
14:18approach. That's worldwide. That's DP
14:20World Tour. You can see here that's
14:21that's PGA Tour. And
14:24you that that's three months. So, what
14:28we're looking for is Harry Hall to be uh
14:32longer than average off the tea and very
14:35inaccurate, which are both fine. We are
14:38looking for him to continue his seven,
14:41eight starts in a row where he's been an
14:43above average proach player. Don't do
14:44anything crazy, just be above average
14:46and then be one of the best putters in
14:47this field. That that is the combination
14:50for Harry Hall to get to the top of the
14:52board. And I think it is a very
14:53reasonable way for him to get to the top
14:56of the board quite honestly. Um Ben
14:59James
15:01burned everybody in Bermuda.
15:06The good news is uh he was fantastic
15:10last week. And I I I'll use that lightly
15:13because he started out he was 95th after
15:16the first round. He shot a 72. He lost
15:18nearly three shots to the field and and
15:20looked looked pretty bad and figured it
15:22out very quickly. The final three rounds
15:23he was awesome. Was he the best player?
15:26Um, how do I want to do this? Let me go
15:28to the holy grail. Let me go for
15:30everybody in
15:33the world who played at uh Vanta last
15:37week. Vanta 2026 just rounds two, three,
15:42and four. Am I doing this right? I'm
15:44still getting used to the new filters on
15:45the site and I've got the order better
15:47where they apply and it kind of makes it
15:50a much better user experience.
15:52This will take a second to load. It's
15:54going through literally millions and
15:56millions of of records here. But I think
15:58I've got this sorted properly where I
16:00think there's a probably a pretty good
16:01chance
16:04come on come on that Ben James was one
16:06of the best players in the field last
16:08week over the final three rounds. he was
16:10third, which I guess makes sense because
16:12Novak was nuts for two of those rounds.
16:13So, um 9.19 strokes, that's that's an
16:18average of three per round over those
16:21final three. So, the um the concern that
16:25we have lost the Ben James, I think has
16:27been grossly uh misrepresented. He has
16:31he has had three bad rounds this year.
16:35all three of them were uh in a row and
16:39other than that he's been awesome. So,
16:41he is the man I'm gonna favorite him so
16:42I don't forget this that I think is kind
16:45of the lynch pin. How are people going
16:47to treat him? You know, he's in a very
16:49awkward spot in the pricing where
16:54you if you want to make the case for the
16:56310k guys, absolutely. If you get down
16:59to the 9K range and you're looking at
17:00this like, whoa, Harry Hall is here.
17:02Bla1 Brown is here. Um, I'm gonna, you
17:05know, even if I believe in Marco Pen
17:07more than Rick does, like, he's here.
17:09There's a bounty of riches in the 9K
17:11range. Ben James, if you weren't paying
17:14attention closely, has been pretty quiet
17:16for his last two starts.
17:19Might just go. So, so on Wednesday when
17:21we get in in here with like the
17:22projected ownership numbers and all that
17:24stuff on the on the live chat,
17:26he's going to be the guy that I'm most
17:28interested in. I think he could be the
17:29X-Factor. And then Blades Brown. Um,
17:32when I write my article for pjour.com
17:34this week, um, I I think you're probably
17:38going to see me write up Blades Brown is
17:40the winner. And and that is there's a
17:43lot of guys that could win, but he's 31
17:46to1 right now. He is showing me week in
17:51and week out how impressive he is. Um
17:54the five strokes he gained off the tea
17:56last week was I think second to only
17:58Marco Pench. He's gained strokes on
18:00approach in every start dating back to
18:02the John Deere. He had a historically
18:05great putting week at the Cornferry Tour
18:08Championship two starts ago. He it is
18:12all there. He is capable of everything.
18:16Um, it is just a matter of putting it
18:19together and and and and to be real, he
18:20has put it together. I mean, he's got
18:22the runner-up finish at the corner tour.
18:23He's got a bunch of top 10s. His floor
18:25is incredibly high. He's basically
18:27pumping out top 20 finishes routinely.
18:30Four in a row, uh, five out of six,
18:34uh,
18:35seven out of 10, seven out of nine.
18:39It's crazy. He's he's this stat profile
18:42is starting to look video game-esque.
18:45And I look at look at his stat profile.
18:48This is this is
18:50this skill profile is above average
18:53everywhere. Let me look at how
18:56wellrounded I'm going to I'm going to do
18:57something crazy and I don't think it's
18:58fair to anybody. Let me compare it to
19:01Scotty Sheffller's profile. Okay. Now
19:04Scotty's going to be on the edges of
19:06everything. Okay. Look at Scotty. Goes
19:08to the edges everywhere except driving
19:10accuracy. Here's Blades Brown. Pretty
19:13damn good. Well above average
19:16everywhere. Um, this kid's going to be
19:19unbelievable. I I think 19 years old.
19:22Yeah. So, you're going to see me write
19:24him up. I'm sure I'm going to have a
19:26Blades Brown ticket. I I do think it's a
19:28difficult week because of how many guys
19:29are capable of winning it, but man, that
19:32is damn good. The AK range is pretty
19:35unbelievable as well. um I I could make
19:37a case for a lot of these guys. Chris
19:39Kirk, who I probably historically
19:41underrate um I is is putting together
19:46very strong finishes dating back to last
19:48year, including the fall. And he's not
19:50even putting together that great of a
19:52stat profile. So, it's it's kind of
19:54weird. Um but but I mean that as a as a
19:56compliment, not as a negative. So So T6
19:59in Bermuda for Chris Kirk, that was the
20:0054 hole event. He picked up four and a
20:02half strokes putting. So that's a stroke
20:03and a half per round every day. that
20:05that unlocks a lot of stuff. If Chris
20:07Kirk putts well, he's going to be inside
20:09the top 10. You can see he's he's got a
20:11he had a T10 in Asheville losing strokes
20:13putting. He had a T8 in Detroit
20:15technically as a losing putter. If he's
20:17going to gain a stroke per round or
20:19something even remotely close to that,
20:21uh lights out. Okay, it it's going to be
20:24lights out for for Chris Kirk because
20:26he's such a good iron player. Um the the
20:29thing with him is that uh like I said it
20:32is a compliment that he has put together
20:34such a strong set of results m made
20:36every cut and a bunch of top 10s and a
20:38bunch of top 25s since the Scottish Open
20:41by hemorrhaging strokes on the putting
20:42surfaces. So I I I think that if he you
20:45know you get him in Bermuda putts well
20:47maybe carries that on to this week I I
20:50don't mind that at all. Michael Kim is
20:52uh historically statistically one of the
20:54better putters that we have in this in
20:55this range. So now we've got him leaning
20:57into his strong suit. He's a little bit
20:59more volatile in the in the ball
21:00striking categories. Doesn't make as
21:02many birdies as some of as some of his
21:03peers do. But again, if you look at last
21:06eight or something like that, three top
21:0910 finishes. Uh one of them was at the
21:11FedEx uh open day France, which was an
21:14event at the end of September in uh in
21:16France on the DP World Tour where he
21:18where he played great. This could be a
21:20low-key pretty decent spot for um for
21:23Michael Kim who's got two top 30s in
21:25each of his trips here. Kefir
21:28Yeah.
21:29golly. Um
21:32the Kefir miscut last week was pretty
21:34devastating for me. It was five and a
21:37half strokes to the negative with the
21:38putter.
21:41One of the worst putting performances of
21:43his career. Looks like it's the second
21:44worst, but he is capable of doing that.
21:46He lost seven strokes putting at the
21:48Canadian Open. He lost two and a half at
21:51the PGA Championship. He lost five at
21:54the Texas Open. He is certainly capable
21:57of doing that. He's a very very um
22:00volatile putter. I will probably forgive
22:04quickly here. I mean, he gained four and
22:07a half strokes ball striking. He has
22:09these I mean, he has these runs all the
22:11time. uh plus six putting minus one plus
22:14one - 5 and a half like that is in the
22:18range of outcomes for Kefir. Steven
22:20Fisk, I want to look at him together
22:22here because he is uh low-key a very
22:27underrated player. Um had a T7 in Utah,
22:30had a T2 at the Mexico Open where he
22:32kind of charged up this leaderboard
22:34late. Yeah, Sunday was fantastic, but he
22:36gained at least a stroke to the field
22:38every single day. He is above average in
22:40every category except his approach play,
22:42which for this week, you know, you've
22:44just got to be like, you got to give
22:46yourself some chances here. And he's not
22:48like the worst in the world, right? His
22:50wedge play is actually quite strong.
22:52Longer irons, he's tour average to
22:54slightly below tour average. And then he
22:56starts to starts to pick it up with
22:58really strong putting. He doesn't three
23:00putt. He's a very good uh lag putter.
23:03His short game is great. Hopefully, he
23:04doesn't have to use it this week. and
23:06and he's playing basically the the the
23:09best golf of of his year right now. He
23:11he is so this is so probably so under
23:14the radar because he has he won uh eight
23:17starts ago. He won the Isco eight starts
23:19ago but that was a an opposite field
23:21event that nobody nobody remembers. So
23:23now in his last eight starts he has a
23:25win, a runner up and a seventh and also
23:29another and a T22. So So that is four
23:32top 25s. Half of his starters in his
23:34last eight are top 25s with a win and
23:39two of his last three are those good
23:40ones.
23:43I rest my case. There was somebody else
23:45here I thought was um I mean I can make
23:48case. I mean okay um Sheamus Power,
23:52Mackenzie Hughes and Max Grazerman are
23:54the only three guys with top 10s at L
23:57Card and all in this range. Uh and
23:59Grasman who we talk about a lot is when
24:01he's going well it's driver putter.
24:03Well, um the driver's falling off a
24:05little bit, but the putter is here. He
24:06finished T11 last week in Mexico.
24:09Sheamus Power
24:11lost in a playoff, the Monday playoff to
24:14Smotherman in Bermuda on Monday. Runner
24:17up there, finished third here in his
24:20first start uh in 2023. He's one of the
24:23best putters in this field over the last
24:2524. So, this 8K range, this this is
24:29probably the most we've spent on an 8K
24:30range, especially in the fall, in a long
24:32time. This is this is rich. Um, McKenzie
24:36Hughes historically one of the best
24:38putters on the PGA Tour, fourth last
24:40week, seventh here in his debut. It was
24:44two starts ago, three years ago. Let's
24:47look at his profile real quick. There's
24:49so much here in the 8K range. You could
24:51you could make a lineup out of the 8K
24:53range.
24:55Yeah. I mean, it's
24:58I I feel I I don't feel bad. Um
25:02I just don't I don't always get a lot of
25:06Mackenzie Hughes because he he has to do
25:10it in the short game categories, but he
25:12always does it in the short game. I
25:13mean, he's lost strokes on approach in
25:15basically
25:1711 out of 12, but he loses two strokes
25:21on approach and finishes fourth last
25:23week. uh during that stretch he's got a
25:26top 10 uh T10, a bunch of other top 25
25:28finishes and he's and losing and he's
25:30losing strokes on approach. Like that's
25:32just what he does. So it's it's a very
25:35different style of golf, but it's a very
25:37consistent style of golf the way that he
25:39plays it. And you think, okay, roll in
25:43what you were doing last week. Roll in
25:45what you've done here at points in the
25:47past on a golf course that begs for
25:50putters.
25:52How could I How could I hate that?
25:55It's a fascinating I mean, this is the
25:57got to be the most wide openen event of
25:59the fall, doesn't it? I mean, I'm I'm
26:01down at 8,000, which is um
26:06the first 20 golfers
26:09and I think I like 15 of them, which is
26:13which is crazy. Um, you know, I left out
26:16Pearson Cudy. I I left out Chris Ventur
26:19and Marco Penge and Jackson Suber, but
26:21like do I really dislike those guys? Not
26:25not a lot. You know, I kind of ruled out
26:26Keith Mitchell a little bit, just cuz I
26:29don't think it's a great spot for him.
26:30But man,
26:32a really really deep board
26:35that I'm probably going to end up
26:37embracing a lot of game theory on,
26:38especially in the in the fantasy
26:40departments because of that, because I
26:42think there's a uh a very small
26:45difference between a lot of these
26:46players, at least through the AK. Let's
26:48let's continue. Let's see what we can
26:49find the sevens. Let's start with Neil
26:51Shipley, who is absolutely finding his
26:53sea legs right now. Little bit of a slow
26:55start to the professional career of Neil
26:58Shipley and he is he's finding it. Uh
27:01has always been one of the better off
27:02the tea players. Long and straight.
27:04Fine. We'll we'll take it. Um approach
27:07play starting to heat up. Plus three and
27:11a half here, plus four and a half there.
27:12Plus 6 and still a little volatile, but
27:15look at how the transition of this, you
27:18know, gets his PGA tourard. The
27:20transition of like a one skill player.
27:22he can only drive the ball. Rest of his
27:24game stinks. And then he starts to fill
27:26this in just every week consistently
27:29getting better. Okay, now he's an abovea
27:30approach player and he's kind of
27:32volatile with the putter. And okay, now
27:34now we've got four out of his last five
27:36he's been positive with the putter.
27:37We've got uh four out of the last six
27:39he's been positive around the green. The
27:41results are starting to stabilize. This
27:43is now seven consecutive made cuts,
27:45which is a big deal for Neil Shipley.
27:47not just made cuts. A third place in the
27:49fall to kick off the fall in Nashville,
27:51a 10th at the Bank of Utah, a 34th in
27:54Bermuda, and then a 16th last week. So
27:56now fallwise, all four are 35th or
28:00better. He's one of the best players in
28:01in the field this fall or one of the
28:03best players on tour this fall and it's
28:05and the good stuff was going back before
28:07that going to a golf course that like
28:09bro just let it fly, keep it, you know,
28:12he he will bet he is so inaccurate. Um,
28:16I shouldn't say that. He He has been so
28:18inaccurate that when he steps up there
28:20and and just finds the fair like, "Okay,
28:23great. Spray it a little bit. You can
28:25spray it a medium bit and and and be
28:27just fine. Really like Neil Shipley this
28:30week." Um, Sammy Valamaki, that's a name
28:34we haven't talked about in a while. He's
28:35been playing all over the place. Um, he
28:38went went over to the KM Open, that was
28:41in June. Uh, I don't know if he dealt
28:44with an injury or what because he played
28:46he played the KM which was which was
28:49June, had a 10th place finish there. He
28:51missed the cut at the Open and then he
28:53didn't play until the Spanish Open which
28:55was in October and or was it like three
28:58weeks ago and he finished 13th. So, I
29:00don't know what kept him out. If you
29:02know, let me know. I guess I could
29:04Google it. Ah, well, now I'll just
29:05Google it. Yeah, I don't know. Um, it
29:09looked like he was in the field last
29:10week for Mexico, but he withdrew like
29:13before it started earlier in the week
29:14and somebody else got in. So, I'm
29:17assuming I guess I shouldn't assume
29:19anything, but anyway, let's assume he's
29:22somewhat healthy and able to play. Look
29:23at this skill profile because it is like
29:26just about the most L Cardinal thing you
29:29could ask for, right? I mean, just Okay,
29:32accuracy fine. Keep it in play. Uh,
29:35approach play positive there. and then
29:37just dominant with the putter and and
29:39that's like the only way he's going to
29:41do it. I mean, the putter's been
29:42fantastic in his last four. That goes
29:43back five months. Um, he played here
29:45last year. He finished second. Makes
29:47sense. We will cautiously keep an eye on
29:50Sammy Valamaki and confirm that he's
29:52going to play this this week, but he I
29:54mean, he played played three weeks ago.
29:56I don't know why he withdrew in Mexico,
29:58and I don't know why he's been out of
29:59action. Trace Crow, we've been laser
30:02focused on Trace Crow. This man is a
30:06scoring machine. Uh, make some bogeies,
30:11make some doubles. Yeah, but he is I
30:13mean he's literally 100 100 percentile
30:15100th percentile scorer. 27% in his last
30:19100 rounds. Like best in the world. Um,
30:22I mean, also like you look at last week,
30:24which was a very easy golf course. Round
30:26one, he makes uh a bogey and a double.
30:29Round two, he makes three bogeies. Round
30:31three, he makes three bogeies and a
30:33double. So, he's capable of that. But
30:35then a bogey free Sunday in which he
30:38gains five strokes to the field and ends
30:40up finishing T11. So, we've got five
30:42really I mean, he is just a maniac. Um,
30:45he is a highly volatile, high upside
30:49player in this current state. Just in
30:51his last 11 rounds alone, the last three
30:55starts, he had a week where he gained 10
30:57strokes on approach and he had a week
30:59where he gained seven and a half with
31:02the putter.
31:03Uh, okay. You're a maniac, dude. Like,
31:07let's let's let's go figure this out.
31:09Let's keep things, you know, in play. He
31:11played this event uh two uh two years
31:14ago. He withdrew after three rounds. So,
31:17he made the cut. He actually had a great
31:19start. Uh three and a half strokes
31:21gained. Struggled on Friday, made the
31:25cut, really struggled on on Saturday,
31:28and withdrew. So, again, I don't know
31:29what that was. That was that was that
31:30was two years ago. But this man is I I I
31:34love the volatility and you know for
31:37especially for things like DraftKings
31:39where there is the bo the the benefit of
31:42birdie bogey birdie bogey birdie bogey
31:45he's almost certainly going to
31:46outperform his T1 like he probably was
31:50uh better than he was probably a top 10
31:52scorer last week uh despite finishing
31:55T11 because of how many birdies and
31:56things he made. Alvaro Ortiz, somebody
31:59that I was pretty high on last week.
32:01Played okay. T34 kind of got in the mix
32:03for a minute. Struggled a bit on the
32:05weekend. He was fantastic out of the
32:06gate. Struggled a little bit on on the
32:08weekend. Um now the second week for him
32:09against PGA Tour competition in his home
32:12country. Um he, you know, we don't have
32:14a lot of data on him. We have more and
32:17more because he was a Cornfairy Tour
32:18player, but he was a very good course
32:20fit. You know, a lot of these guys that
32:21play on the Cornferryy Tour like he did
32:23are just uber scorers. Um, again he's a
32:2695th percentile score like birdie or
32:28better rate. He's got, you know, hasn't
32:30missed a cut since July. Almost all of
32:34that is is is PG uh scor stuff, but
32:37there's enough here on a very unique
32:40golf course that um demands
32:43rolling putts that like I'm going back
32:45to Alvaro Ortiz for sure. He was 100 I
32:47think he was 110 last week. He was he's
32:49100 to1 this week. And then I want I
32:50needed to look at Rasmus Hoygard because
32:52this I mean this man's a rider cuppper.
32:54this man is um
32:57uh pedigree is one of the best in the
32:59field and he's $7,300
33:03and it's just been it's been ugly. Um it
33:07didn't start that way. You know, after
33:09the Windham Championship, he went back
33:11to Denmark and he played um he played
33:14the Danish Golf Open and finished second
33:16and the stat profile was awesome. And
33:19then he played the European Masters and
33:20that was pretty good, too.
33:22And then he played the Irish Open. That
33:24was like a That was okay. T11 and T31 in
33:27both of those places. Then he came back
33:28in the fallsman brutally. Withdrew after
33:30a round uh in Asheville. He missed the
33:33cut in in Utah spraying it all over the
33:37place. He lost 10 strokes ball striking.
33:39Um and then he went to to Mexico last
33:42week and he missed the cut again.
33:44I mean technically better, but the bar
33:46was was was really really low. So um
33:49gonna need to see some life out of
33:51Rasmus. would not be opposed to like
33:55this is the kind of guy where
33:58like if he played well on Thursday and
34:00he was like three or four under or
34:01something like that I might just bet him
34:03to win we're we're going to like if if
34:06he is healthy and playing well he is one
34:10of the best players in this field but I
34:12don't know if he's healthy and I don't
34:14know if he's playing well but I think
34:16we're going to find out very quickly
34:17like if he goes out and picks up three
34:19strokes off the you know two strokes off
34:20the tea and drives it like I've seen him
34:21do in person.
34:24Cool. Great. Like I I think when it
34:26clicks for him, it's going to be it's
34:27going to be it's going to be just fine.
34:29Here's the 6K range. And I'm just going
34:31to sort this by strokes gain total over
34:32the last 24 rounds. We could do last 12
34:34rounds. Uh actually, those are probably
34:38the three guys I was most interested in.
34:40Anyway, let's go to 24. That's where we
34:42started. Uh the best player is Austin
34:43hit. Now, the reason that he is the best
34:46player uh in this range and actually one
34:49of the best in this field in terms of
34:50raw strokes gained over the last 24
34:52rounds is because he won the Cornferry
34:53Tour Championship. Boom. Win. He also
34:56finished fourth at the Nationwide
34:58Children's Hospital event. That was
35:00three starts ago. And then he also
35:02finished second at the Advent Health uh
35:04two starts before that. So, his last
35:06five starts are a win, a runner up, a
35:08fourth, a 27th, and a missed cut. um
35:12stat profile-wise
35:14a little bit all over not all over the
35:16place cuz historically he's a great
35:18driver, great approach player. Uh he won
35:21the Cornfair Tour Championship by
35:22gaining eight strokes putting which is a
35:25lot but not unusual for him because he
35:27finished second at the Blue Hills by
35:28gaining nine strokes putting. So uh who
35:32who who was I saying Bla Blaes Brown
35:34right is what I was saying earlier where
35:36it's like he has shown us routinely it
35:38is all in there. It is all in there and
35:42it comes out and he can win golf
35:44tournaments and he can contend and
35:47if he puts it all together, he's gonna
35:49he's gonna win by five shots. He's going
35:50to win by six shots. That's that's what
35:51happens here. So, um, again, a very
35:54strong, well-rounded profile. This is
35:56cornfairy tour stuff for the vast
35:58majority. All of it is cornfairy tour
35:59stuff. But
36:02he's awesome. He's going to be on the
36:04PGA tour full-time next year and he is
36:06gonna kind of be a problem. Okay. Austin
36:09hit, 28-year-old out of Longwood,
36:12Florida. Get used to the name. Ben
36:15Silverman was also up there. Uh Ben
36:17Silverman's been around a long time.
36:19He's uh h has Okay, if you are looking
36:23for volatility, Ben Silverman fits that
36:26mold. The miscuts are a problem. A lot
36:31of miscuts in his last 10 or 12 starts.
36:33The good news is that amongst those
36:36missed cuts are high finishes. The third
36:39at the Isco, the third in Bermuda, and
36:42the 19th in Mexico. So of the three good
36:45starts in his last 12, two of them are
36:48his last two. And his fall is now three
36:52made cuts with a third and a 19th. It is
36:56three straight
36:58starts gaining off the tea. It's gaining
37:00nine strokes on approach in his last uh
37:05what's that seven rounds because Bermuda
37:07was a 54hole event. And I still look at
37:10this and say, "Wow, there's juice to
37:13squeeze." U an above average putter who
37:16gains about a quarter of a stroke per
37:17round in those last two in those last
37:20seven rounds has lost two and a half
37:23strokes putting.
37:25You know, I don't I don't know what the
37:28breakout candidates are going to say
37:30here. Yeah, he's right here. He's like
37:31the 10th or 12th player. He's in the
37:33he's in the optimal quadrant because his
37:35TA Green game in the last 24 is better
37:38than his 100 round baseline. And his
37:41putting is below his own putting
37:45baseline, which gives you a breakout
37:47opportunity of about twothirds of a
37:50stroke better. Okay, that's what I see
37:53when I look at Ben Ben Silverman. I
37:55think he's got good history here, too.
37:56Um, yeah, he's played it once. T-21.
37:59Speaking of good history, Justin Lowour
38:01is here. Uh, Justin Lowour is I think
38:06this week's Brian Campbell. And I mean
38:10that as like Brian Campbell plays well
38:14at Vdant Viarta for no good reason. No
38:19eye test, no model, no common sense
38:24would think Brian Campbell should play
38:26well at Fedto Varta and he does. There
38:30is no no reason in the world that Justin
38:33Lowour should play well at El Cardinal
38:37and he and he does. Um 23rd, 2nd, and
38:4231st in the three trips. So that is
38:44probably
38:46Let's do this together. everybody in
38:47this field
38:50um with at least what do you want to do
38:53like two starts
38:56Garrick Higo is one 2.76 over two starts
39:00Patrick Rogers 2.14 over two starts and
39:03then here you go the guys with three
39:05starts Coocher Griffin Justin Lowour so
39:08Lowry's got the fifth best strokes gain
39:10total uh of all those who played here at
39:12least twice it's 12 rounds he's made the
39:14cut in all of them I don't know why I do
39:17not look at the stat profile and say,
39:19"Wow, Justin Lowour, this is a really
39:21great fit for him." Um, his 2026 has
39:23been generally pretty bad. Uh, it's it's
39:27been better lately. Uh, he made the cut
39:30in Mexico last week. He's made the cut
39:32in five out of six, which is probably
39:35Yeah, that's the best stretch of his
39:36year. Um, actually, and actually, it
39:39goes back a little bit further than
39:40that. It's seven out of
39:421 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 or seven out of nine I
39:46guess it is. Um made cuts. His best
39:48finish is a T21 the Bank of Utah
39:50Championship. So this to me is uh
39:54Lowour's ceiling being like T18
39:58and his floor being like T38.
40:01And it's not going to make any sense.
40:03And if he contends and finishes inside
40:05the top 10, I wouldn't be surprised. And
40:06if he made missed the cut, I wouldn't be
40:08surprised. But this feels like
40:13Brian Campbell
40:15for no reason.
40:19Anybody else down here? Anybody else
40:22that I think is
40:25kind of interesting? Um,
40:28God, Vince Whe. Can we look at before I
40:32open the Vince Whley tab? Um,
40:36Vince Whe was was that in Bermuda where
40:38he had that unbelievable history and he
40:40was coming off of just just having the
40:42worst year ever.
40:44I want to look at what he's done since
40:46then. I do also know he's got decent
40:49history here and he's a very good
40:51historic putter. So, let's see because
40:54the the form going into I believe it was
40:56Bermuda. Yeah. Right. Yeah. The form
41:00going into Bermuda was was was
41:02miserable. He did make the cut in
41:04Bermuda.
41:06It was slightly above average on
41:09Thursday, slightly below average Friday
41:11and Saturday, and then they only played
41:1354 holes. Uh a better finish last week.
41:18All of it from the short game
41:20categories, but that's what he does.
41:23It's kind of like a worse Mackenzie
41:25Hughes.
41:27And then his history here, pretty good.
41:3059th, so made the cut. 55th made the cut
41:34and then last year was 17th.
41:38God, it's just not.
41:42Look at this. I mean, h god, I I want to
41:49makes a lot of putts, makes a lot of
41:51birdies, has had has decent history
41:54here, is very cheap,
41:57is playing slightly better,
42:01might be the first round leader.
42:04Not very confident in that.
42:08Anybody else?
42:11Um,
42:13let me sort this by strokes gain total
42:14again. Hayden Springer.
42:17Kind of interesting, but not really. All
42:19right, let's run a model. So,
42:23this is um All right, let's do this.
42:25Let's do
42:28Well, first off, let me bring the fit
42:29over. So, this is the course fit. Yeah.
42:32Uh, okay. Ben Cole's number one in just
42:35pure C. So, this just pulls over the
42:37math. This just pulls over the values of
42:40the course profile,
42:43converts it into
42:45the correlation model, all that stuff,
42:47and then and then throws it into the
42:49model. Ben Cole's one, Austin hit two,
42:52Alvaro Ortiz, Sheamus Power, Blades
42:55Brown, top five. I'm going to clear this
42:57out and I'm going to do I'm going to
42:58manually do this. So, um I I do think we
43:02probably need a weighted strokes gained.
43:05We've got guys that have a lot of or
43:09only cornfairy tour starts and we've got
43:11guys that have only PGA tour starts. So,
43:13there is a pretty big difference here.
43:14So, we're going to go like this is going
43:16to be my my pedigree baseline. So, last
43:18100 rounds of weighted strokes gained
43:20per 12th. Okay. That probably gives
43:23Yeah, that gives like Gerard, Quinn, Ben
43:25James, Keith Mitchell, Ben Kohl's, Ben
43:28Griffin. That that gives them the boost,
43:30right? All right. So now we're going to
43:32say off the tee, we don't really care. I
43:36would prefer you to be a little bit
43:39longer just because that's always an
43:41advantage, but I don't really care. So
43:42we're just going eight on on distance.
43:45Um, we're going to do putting
43:48in probably a pretty significant way
43:50here. Something we don't always do. So
43:52we're going to do strokes game putting
43:56last 24
44:00for
44:0215.
44:04Then we are going to do
44:09three putt avoidance was uh highly
44:14correlated and is always more correlated
44:16on large green. So last 50 rounds here
44:20for six.
44:23We will all uh six, excuse me. We will
44:26also do
44:31putting on passpollum,
44:34but not a lot because a lot of places
44:38that have pass don't have shot link. So
44:41we're just going to put five on that. We
44:43are going to do bonus putting. Bonus
44:44putting is kind of attached to scoring
44:47because it's do you make all your putts
44:49within 5 ft and then do you um what do
44:52you make outside of 20 ft. So we're
44:55going to go last 36 rounds there for
44:58like 13. I think that's pretty
45:00important.
45:02And then
45:04I need to get scoring involved.
45:07Um,
45:12let's do birdies or better gained last
45:1512. Something really shortterm for 10.
45:18How much do I have left?
45:21Oh, I have a lot left. And then we're
45:22going to do birdie or better in general.
45:25Last 50 for 10. So, kind of like a
45:28little heat check as well.
45:37should probably do L Cardinal history.
45:40Nobody has 36 rounds, but it'll default
45:42to what they have for 10. I don't know
45:45why I keep doing 10, but it's okay.
45:48We've got 11 left.
45:52Am I missing anything?
45:54Um,
45:56I could do par 72s. I don't know if that
45:58matters a lot. I've got a lot of
46:00putting. I've got a lot of
46:03weighted stuff as well.
46:08Where do we want to put our last 11?
46:13How often they gain
46:16two or more strokes to green
46:19over the last 50?
46:22Just do it. We don't use that a lot. All
46:24right.
46:27Oh boy. All right. Yeah.
46:30I mean, let's go.
46:33Blades Brown number one.
46:36He's well he's as wellrounded as it
46:38gets. So this makes sense. 109% bonus
46:41putts. That's lovely.
46:44Third in this field. Um Sheamus P is
46:48number two.
46:50I get it. He just was in a playoff the
46:52last time he played. Michael Kim is
46:54three. Ben James is four. Alvaro Ortiz
46:56is five. Austin hit. Sammy Valamaki.
46:59Jackson Quin. Trace Crow. Hayden
47:01Springer. Uh again, Sammy Valamaki does
47:04not have many rounds in the last five
47:07months.
47:09Guys that also cor uh I mean uh Ben
47:11James, Alvaro Ortiz, Austin hit, I think
47:14we're all part of that top 10 of the
47:16course fit. Although I guess I kind of
47:17mimicked it as well,
47:19but this this is gorgeous. Jackson
47:23Quinn's eighth. He's the most expensive
47:24player. Um wow, I love this.
47:31Ben Griffin does not rate out very well
47:33for me in this one. I I got to save this
47:34before I forget. So, if I save this, so
47:37I'm going to save this and call it 2026
47:39WWT model. Now, you guys, when I save
47:42this, you should be able to use it if
47:44you want and then mess around with it
47:45and save your own. It'll fall under
47:48Rick's models.
47:51I didn't have anybody tell me they had
47:52issues with that, so I think it's
47:54working beautifully. Wow. Wow. Wow.
47:57Sexy. Sexy. Wow. Wow. Okay.
48:02Wow, that was long. I was I was in it. I
48:05was in it, baby. Okay. Um I'll see you
48:07guys Wednesday.
48:09Let me know if anything comes up on the
48:11website. Um there's a huge I mean,
48:13there's literally a huge contact Rick
48:15button in the top. So, just shoot me a
48:17note.
48:19I'm amped. Let's do it. See you.
48:23[music]

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