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WTF Is Happening In The French Bond Market? — Transcript

by The Maverick of Wall Street · 4,750 words · 666 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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  1. 0:14All right.
  2. 0:17Today is Thursday, the 1st of October.
  3. 0:20Got a new month for you here. And this
  4. 0:22is a recap for the stock market
  5. 0:24activities today. In fact, I got a good
  6. 0:26one for you tonight. We have a really
  7. 0:28important discussion and let me stress
  8. 0:30out here that tomorrow's session in the
  9. 0:32stock market and specifically the
  10. 0:34reaction to the data we're getting which
  11. 0:36is the jobs number is the last piece of
  12. 0:39hope that we have left to save the
  13. 0:42global bond market. If that job number
  14. 0:44comes out hot, forget about it. There's
  15. 0:46nothing left that we have in the
  16. 0:48pipeline from a macro perspective or
  17. 0:50from any perspective that could cool
  18. 0:53down the global bond market. And we're
  19. 0:55teetering at the edge right now, folks,
  20. 0:57because as these yields surge higher,
  21. 1:00the likelihood that something is going
  22. 1:02to blow up becomes highly likely. You
  23. 1:04know, we see these bond yields surging
  24. 1:06higher, specifically in the long uh end
  25. 1:09of the bond market, be it in the US30
  26. 1:11bond yield or any long end of the bond
  27. 1:14market globally, be it Japan, be it UK,
  28. 1:16be it Italy, be it France, which is the
  29. 1:18subject of tonight's program. And the
  30. 1:21first thing that comes to mind is well
  31. 1:23it is because inflation of course I mean
  32. 1:25take for example what we see in the US.
  33. 1:27You can look at the 30-year bond yield
  34. 1:29and say yeah it is inflation it's Iran
  35. 1:32right Iran war uh the price of gasoline
  36. 1:35and that's why we see the bond market
  37. 1:38crashing in the long end and sending
  38. 1:40yield significantly higher. Of course,
  39. 1:43this is a valid and truthful statement
  40. 1:46that the perhaps at least one of the
  41. 1:48main reasons behind the surge in bond
  42. 1:50yields that we're seeing is the rise and
  43. 1:52come back of inflation. But folks, let's
  44. 1:55talk about the facts here and what's
  45. 1:56going on. Yes, we have the hawks at the
  46. 1:59Fed like Kashkari for example, who
  47. 2:01suddenly became a hawk and he says,
  48. 2:03"Yeah, we need to change the policy. We
  49. 2:06need to raise interest rates higher. The
  50. 2:08latest data did not change his view." He
  51. 2:11says inflation too high and we got from
  52. 2:13Dallas Logan. She came out and said we
  53. 2:15need 50 bips or more. On the other hand,
  54. 2:17we discussed Williams from New York this
  55. 2:19week and we discussed Waller. On top of
  56. 2:22that, Jefferson comes out, the vice
  57. 2:24chair, and he says we can wait. We don't
  58. 2:26need to raise rates right now. And
  59. 2:27folks, part of the reason why we see
  60. 2:29Williams and Jefferson and perhaps even
  61. 2:31Kashkari at some point is going to begin
  62. 2:33to flip because the bond market is doing
  63. 2:35the interest rate hike for them. the
  64. 2:37bond market is sending these yields
  65. 2:38higher where they don't have to do
  66. 2:40anything right now when it comes to the
  67. 2:42long end of the yield curve. And the
  68. 2:44truth is if you look at the odds, we
  69. 2:47know that what's going to happen here is
  70. 2:48more policy makers and leaning against
  71. 2:51the October rate hike. So, okay,
  72. 2:53December is in the back. Perhaps if the
  73. 2:55situation continues, that there's no
  74. 2:57improvement in inflation by that time,
  75. 2:59but we were just last week talking about
  76. 3:01the odds in the 70s, 70% plus, that
  77. 3:05we're going to get a rate hike in
  78. 3:06October. If you check out the odds right
  79. 3:08now, they collapsed all the way to 25%.
  80. 3:12So, the predominant odd that we're not
  81. 3:13going to have any interest rate hike in
  82. 3:15October. So, why the hell is the bond
  83. 3:18market not reflecting that? But the
  84. 3:20reality is it is reflecting it. So if
  85. 3:22you look at the 2-year which reflects
  86. 3:24the Fed policy which the Fed policy can
  87. 3:27control, you can see that yields went
  88. 3:29down today reflecting the fact that the
  89. 3:31odds went down to 25%. So the market is
  90. 3:34saying yes, we got it. We're probably
  91. 3:35not going to have a rate hike in
  92. 3:37October. But check out the long end of
  93. 3:39the yield curve. That's where the
  94. 3:40problem is. If you look at the 30-year
  95. 3:42bond deal, for example, it is still
  96. 3:44surging higher. We anticipate a top, but
  97. 3:46that's only going to happen if we get a
  98. 3:48major piece of weaker economic data. And
  99. 3:51we only have one left here, folks, and
  100. 3:53that is the jobs number. But what is the
  101. 3:55message here? Why do we see the two
  102. 3:57coming down reflecting the fact that
  103. 3:59we've reduced the odds to 25% from 70
  104. 4:02plus to 25% reflecting the statements by
  105. 4:05Jefferson and Williams that more and
  106. 4:07more fed zombies are now leaning toward
  107. 4:09no hike in October. There's this
  108. 4:11response right here. But why don't we
  109. 4:13see the response showing up in the 30
  110. 4:15years, 20 year, even the 10 year? I
  111. 4:17mean, you see the market, if you're
  112. 4:19watching the intraday action, if you
  113. 4:21look at the TLT, which is tracking, of
  114. 4:22course, the bond prices at the 20 year
  115. 4:25all the way to the 30, you can see that
  116. 4:26even today they're trying to push it
  117. 4:28higher. They're trying to say, "Okay,
  118. 4:29this is ridiculous. We need to push the
  119. 4:31TLT higher. We need to push yields
  120. 4:33down." But there is some sort of
  121. 4:34resistance. There's some sort of a
  122. 4:36driving force that keeps pushing these
  123. 4:39bond yields higher and higher and
  124. 4:41higher. I mean, you see it even in the
  125. 4:42IWM, which is really sensitive to bond
  126. 4:44yields. It wants to move higher. It got
  127. 4:46the support of the 200 days moving
  128. 4:48average. It wants to go higher, but it
  129. 4:50can't go higher without this coming
  130. 4:52down. And again, the last hope we got to
  131. 4:54bring this down is a significant weaker
  132. 4:57piece of data, macro data. It has to be
  133. 4:59really, really weak. And the jobs number
  134. 5:01is the only thing that we got right now.
  135. 5:03But I'm beginning to suspect, we go back
  136. 5:05to the conversation we began this video
  137. 5:07with. Is this what we're looking at
  138. 5:08right now happening because of inflation
  139. 5:12and the Fed policy that's going to
  140. 5:13follow? Not really, because this is
  141. 5:16reflecting it right here, the 2-year.
  142. 5:17So, there's something else that is the
  143. 5:20driving force of pushing long and bond
  144. 5:23yields higher, not just in the US, but
  145. 5:26across the globe. And then you look at
  146. 5:27the dollar. The dollar keeps surging
  147. 5:29higher. Yet, the Fed is talking softly.
  148. 5:32The Fed is beginning to change its tune
  149. 5:34to doubbish. Why aren't we seeing a
  150. 5:36response here? Why do we continue to see
  151. 5:38the dollar surging higher along with
  152. 5:41long-end bond yields such as the 30 bond
  153. 5:44yield? My hunch is something is about to
  154. 5:48break in an international market. There
  155. 5:50is a crisis happening right now in an
  156. 5:53international economy and that's the
  157. 5:55driving force behind what we see in the
  158. 5:58US long end of the bond market and for
  159. 6:01that matter the global long end of the
  160. 6:03bond market. UK, Spain, Italy, France,
  161. 6:07Germany, Japan. All of these yields are
  162. 6:09moving higher. It's a global phenomenon.
  163. 6:11And you can see it right here. You can
  164. 6:13see that the 10-year government debt,
  165. 6:15the yields are surging higher. Be it in
  166. 6:16Japan, be it in France. Look at this big
  167. 6:19jump that we see in France, in the US,
  168. 6:21in the UK. All of these yields are
  169. 6:23moving higher. Now, once again, we know
  170. 6:25what's going on. We know that the diesel
  171. 6:27exports, we are short cuz nothing is
  172. 6:29coming out of the Middle East anymore
  173. 6:31and nothing coming out of Russia
  174. 6:32anymore. In North America, we might see
  175. 6:35a diesel export ban. So, we get all of
  176. 6:37that. Maybe that's producing a little
  177. 6:39bit of fear in the bond market. That's a
  178. 6:41legitimate reason. And then you look, of
  179. 6:42course, at the headline that we got
  180. 6:44today that oil jumping 4%, China is now
  181. 6:46halting fuel exports. And according to a
  182. 6:49report by the Wall Street Journal, the
  183. 6:50US is sending about 10k troops, 10,000
  184. 6:54troops to the Middle East. Why the hell
  185. 6:55would you send 10,000 troops unless
  186. 6:57you're planning something? We know that
  187. 6:59uh inflation is going up because of this
  188. 7:02phenomenon. fuel prices, gasoline prices
  189. 7:04going up. You look at the ISM
  190. 7:06manufacturing report that we got today.
  191. 7:08Absolutely stunning. The activities
  192. 7:10index is pretty much flat month. The
  193. 7:12price index went higher by 6.8%
  194. 7:16and it's been increasing 24 consecutive
  195. 7:19months. We know that another reason for
  196. 7:21bond yields in the long end, 10 to 30
  197. 7:24going higher, is the fact that we have
  198. 7:26competition from the corporate bond
  199. 7:28market. The hyperscalers are issuing
  200. 7:30billions and billions of billions of
  201. 7:32dollars worth of bonds to finance the AI
  202. 7:34data centers. And for a lot of
  203. 7:36investors, they'd rather hold the bond
  204. 7:38by Google or Microsoft than the US
  205. 7:40government, UK government, French
  206. 7:42government, you name it. We know that
  207. 7:44part of the reason that bond yields are
  208. 7:46going up is we have an insane debt to
  209. 7:48GDP ratio. All of these G7 countries,
  210. 7:51all of these developed countries are
  211. 7:53pretty much fueled and financed and
  212. 7:56surviving based on debt. So you see the
  213. 7:58debt to GDP ratio skyrocketing. I mean
  214. 8:00we're talking about third world
  215. 8:01countries right now. 100% plus debt to
  216. 8:04GDP ratio in Britain, in Canada, in
  217. 8:06France, in Germany, in Italy, in Japan,
  218. 8:09in the US. And Germany is a a little bit
  219. 8:12better situation here. I misspoke when I
  220. 8:14said Germany, but Germany is close
  221. 8:15enough to getting to that 100% debt to
  222. 8:17GDP ratio. So why are we concentrating
  223. 8:20on France as the suspect here that is
  224. 8:23probably driving global bond yields
  225. 8:25higher and driving the US dollar higher?
  226. 8:28Well, let's take it one step at a time.
  227. 8:29What we know right now, if you look at
  228. 8:31the 10-year bond yield in France, it is
  229. 8:33or the debt rather, it's about 120% of
  230. 8:36GDP. You can see the surge here. This
  231. 8:38was a country that is in in in fiscally
  232. 8:41sound condition back in the 80s, even
  233. 8:43the '9s to a certain extent. The the
  234. 8:452000s was okay. was 100% under 100% debt
  235. 8:49to GDP ratio and then well all of a
  236. 8:51sudden financial crisis hits and just
  237. 8:53like any so-called developed country the
  238. 8:56central banks cabal begins to print
  239. 8:58money like crazy we see these debt to
  240. 9:00GDP ratios shooting up significantly
  241. 9:02higher now the question might be but m
  242. 9:04again let's go back to the previous
  243. 9:06chart right here why France why what is
  244. 9:09it a big deal here because France has a
  245. 9:11debt to GDP ratio of 120% but that is
  246. 9:14still better than the US that's still
  247. 9:16better than uh than Italy that's still
  248. 9:18better than Japan. What is the big deal
  249. 9:20here when it comes to France? Perhaps
  250. 9:22the answer behind that is the velocity
  251. 9:25where we see these bond yields surging
  252. 9:27higher. We're now close to 5% in the 10
  253. 9:30year in France. You can see it right
  254. 9:31here. Massive surge higher, close to 5%,
  255. 9:34something that we haven't seen in the
  256. 9:35French bond market uh since the
  257. 9:37financial crisis in 2008. But once
  258. 9:39again, Mav, the US 10year is close to
  259. 9:425%. So what is the big deal? big deal.
  260. 9:45There's something different and unique
  261. 9:47happening in France. I mean, look at
  262. 9:48this here. The France bond risk premium
  263. 9:51is now higher than Italy and Greece.
  264. 9:54This is France in blue, Greece in
  265. 9:56yellow, Germany. You can see that the
  266. 9:57the ratio between French and Germany in
  267. 10:00in uh in blue with Italy in green with
  268. 10:03Greece in yellow. When you begin to have
  269. 10:05a risk premium that is higher than
  270. 10:08Germany, that's concerning because
  271. 10:09Germany is in a financial mess right
  272. 10:11now. When you have a risk premium that
  273. 10:13is now exceeding Greece, something big
  274. 10:16is happening here. Something disastrous
  275. 10:18is happening behind the scenes that
  276. 10:20maybe we cannot pinpoint right now, but
  277. 10:23it's the kind of black swan that you're
  278. 10:25going to hear about after the fact and
  279. 10:27check it out right here. There it is. So
  280. 10:29again, let's go back to the charts that
  281. 10:31I showed you, right? So all of these
  282. 10:32countries have high debt to GDP ratios.
  283. 10:34The bond yields are going up. We got it.
  284. 10:36But look at the cost of insurance
  285. 10:38against debt. Look at what's going on
  286. 10:40here in France. We see a big surge this
  287. 10:43summer into September. We see a huge pop
  288. 10:46higher here. A rapid move that diverges
  289. 10:49away from every other market. Be it the
  290. 10:51US, be it UK, be it Germany, be it
  291. 10:54Spain, be it Italy. Once again, folks,
  292. 10:57something is cooking here in France. And
  293. 11:00if bond yields continue to go higher, I
  294. 11:02promise you that not next year, within
  295. 11:05weeks, we will hear about something
  296. 11:07blowing up in Europe. I'm willing to bet
  297. 11:09right now that it's going to be in
  298. 11:10France. So, the last hope that we have
  299. 11:12left to bring down global bond yields
  300. 11:15tomorrow is a weaker jobs data in the US
  301. 11:18because that's going to influence all of
  302. 11:20uh global bond markets. If we see the
  303. 11:2230-year bond yield going down because of
  304. 11:24a weaker macro data here in the US, you
  305. 11:26will see all of these global bond
  306. 11:28markets responding the same way. If we
  307. 11:30don't get that though, buckle up your
  308. 11:32seat belts. Something is about to
  309. 11:34collapse in France. You look at the
  310. 11:36issues that the French population is
  311. 11:39worried about, cost of living comes at
  312. 11:41over 50%. So all you hear about uh from
  313. 11:44Elon Musk and that kind of crowd is
  314. 11:46immigration, immigration, immigration.
  315. 11:48That's 30%. With or without immigration,
  316. 11:50right now the main concern is the cost
  317. 11:52of living. As interest rates go higher,
  318. 11:54that concern will continue to increase
  319. 11:56higher and higher and higher. And there
  320. 11:58is also another phenomenon that makes
  321. 12:00the French market unique. If we look at
  322. 12:02the stocks, the French stock market, it
  323. 12:04is way way underperforming the rest of
  324. 12:06Europe. You can see it right here.
  325. 12:08Year-to- date European markets up about
  326. 12:107 8%. The French market went negative in
  327. 12:13the majority of the decline happened
  328. 12:15right in the summer. Something happened
  329. 12:17and the insiders spotted it and they're
  330. 12:19beginning to bet on that outcome that
  331. 12:22something is going to collapse in
  332. 12:23France. It's going to be contagious and
  333. 12:25hence we see bond yields across the
  334. 12:28globe moving significantly higher in
  335. 12:30tandem. Take a look at the breadth. I
  336. 12:32mean we talk about the breadth in the US
  337. 12:34stock market being bad. Check out this
  338. 12:36the the French stock market. These are
  339. 12:38the French bond yield surging higher.
  340. 12:40You look at the French stock market
  341. 12:42again. The point we began to see the
  342. 12:44risk premiums going up. Watch what
  343. 12:46happened to the French stock market. It
  344. 12:48went down by about 10% rapidly. And if
  345. 12:50you look at underneath everything here,
  346. 12:52if you look at the breadth is
  347. 12:53disastrous. Every sector for the month
  348. 12:56is down. Every single sector in the
  349. 12:57French market is down. You look at the
  350. 12:59advancing declining 125 advancing 418
  351. 13:03declining. If you look at the new highs
  352. 13:05and lows, it's even more disastrous than
  353. 13:07the US market. In the last 5 days, we
  354. 13:10got 117 new highs versus 341
  355. 13:14new lows. You dig further in the French
  356. 13:17stock market and you could see that I
  357. 13:19mean the the largest company is about
  358. 13:21$300 billion. So put that in
  359. 13:23perspective. Largest company in the US
  360. 13:25is about $6 trillion. Wait till that
  361. 13:27collapses. That's going to be the big
  362. 13:29one. But anyways, right now look at the
  363. 13:31year-to-ate performance of some of these
  364. 13:33stocks. LVMH, their biggest companies
  365. 13:35down 30%. And you're going to notice
  366. 13:37that the only companies that are going
  367. 13:38higher are related to energy or AI. So
  368. 13:41total energies up 46% for the year.
  369. 13:44Hermes up a bit or down rather 39% one
  370. 13:48of their top companies BNP once again
  371. 13:50banks related to a lot of energy
  372. 13:52investments that's up 18% but you see
  373. 13:55again SLR down about 50% Seni down about
  374. 13:5914% you see all of these companies again
  375. 14:01this is metal is a a steel company up
  376. 14:0475% so that's following the same theme
  377. 14:07in the US with steel companies going up
  378. 14:09because of the build data data centers
  379. 14:10and then the list keeps going on and on
  380. 14:12you can see all these declines for the
  381. 14:14year 29% 30% 15% another 30% for dissult
  382. 14:19which is supposed to be doing pretty
  383. 14:20good as a defense contractor not so much
  384. 14:22you have some uh semiconductor companies
  385. 14:24up 90% that's the exception so when you
  386. 14:26have a market that is not concentrated
  387. 14:28in technology like the French market you
  388. 14:30see a disaster you see names down 30 40
  389. 14:3350% for the year so something
  390. 14:35significant here happening in this
  391. 14:37country and these are the kind of things
  392. 14:39that we don't hear about we don't
  393. 14:40understand we don't get the facts about
  394. 14:42until after the act so and so bank
  395. 14:45collapsed something happened in France
  396. 14:47but the insiders know about that and the
  397. 14:49leading indicator is the risk premium
  398. 14:50that we see the divergence in the risk
  399. 14:52premium in the French market is way way
  400. 14:55higher than its peers be it Germany be
  401. 14:57it Japan be it Spain be it Italy be it
  402. 15:00the UK now what happens what happens if
  403. 15:02we get a weak cooked piece of jobs data
  404. 15:05tomorrow in the US market and we see the
  405. 15:0830-year bond yield going down and we see
  406. 15:10the dollar coming down that's going to
  407. 15:12be the relief that global markets
  408. 15:15desperately need. Yesterday, in
  409. 15:17yesterday's video, we talked about who's
  410. 15:19going to benefit, what kind of stocks
  411. 15:20will benefit if we see the 30-year
  412. 15:23coming down. But what happens if the
  413. 15:2530-year comes down along with the
  414. 15:26dollar? Who benefits when the dollar
  415. 15:28goes down? So, let's go back to a chart
  416. 15:30or a slide that I gave you a long time
  417. 15:31ago. Here it is. These are the sectors
  418. 15:34that are dictated by the dollar. These
  419. 15:36are the sectors dictated by the bond
  420. 15:39market. These are the sectors and the
  421. 15:41stocks dictated by the volatility index
  422. 15:43and the hedging. So you see the
  423. 15:45exception here cap stocks, the chips,
  424. 15:47the NASDAQ and that market is doing fine
  425. 15:50for now so long as the volatility index
  426. 15:52is down. The massacre is right here as
  427. 15:54bond yields went higher. Dividend stocks
  428. 15:57went down, defensives went down, small
  429. 15:59caps down, regional banks down
  430. 16:01significantly. So home builders,
  431. 16:03biotech, profitist companies, high debt,
  432. 16:06retailers, real estate, all of them
  433. 16:08getting whacked. So a relief in the bond
  434. 16:10market where yields go down will be good
  435. 16:12for these sectors right here and a lot
  436. 16:14of them are oversold. A relief in the
  437. 16:16dollar on the other hand would benefit
  438. 16:18these names right here. I would take an
  439. 16:20exception to oil though because let's
  440. 16:22say if oil drops down meaningfully
  441. 16:25because of whatever piece of news then
  442. 16:26the dollar will go down with it. So
  443. 16:28right now we're in a dynamic because we
  444. 16:30have a geopolitical situation where the
  445. 16:32dollar and oil are trading together. But
  446. 16:34that is the exception. If that's a big
  447. 16:36if, the dollar goes down tomorrow.
  448. 16:38Commodities will benefit. Metals will
  449. 16:40benefit the most along with gold and
  450. 16:43silver chemicals. So you look at a name
  451. 16:45like Allen for example getting whacked
  452. 16:47as the dollar rallies. But did we get a
  453. 16:49bullish engulfing candle today with a
  454. 16:51slightly higher volume? Are they
  455. 16:53anticipating and readying for a drop in
  456. 16:55the value of the dollar and a relief
  457. 16:58rebound in the chemicals, the
  458. 16:59fertilizers, the emerging markets? I
  459. 17:01mean you can look at the international
  460. 17:04markets too not just emerging markets.
  461. 17:05So if you look at the European market
  462. 17:07the EUR which includes France that's
  463. 17:10also down about 8% or so and a little
  464. 17:12bit oversold. So if the dollar comes
  465. 17:14down tomorrow you're probably going to
  466. 17:16see a buying opportunity in the European
  467. 17:17market at least for a rebound or a
  468. 17:19swing. You'll see it also in the
  469. 17:21Brazilian market international markets.
  470. 17:23You see it in XME the metals. So you get
  471. 17:25the point here. Solar would benefit too.
  472. 17:27Solar getting whacked. But look at tan.
  473. 17:2910 is the ETF for solar that's getting
  474. 17:31whacked just down and down and down as
  475. 17:33the dollar ratties higher. If we get a
  476. 17:35little bit of relief in the dollar, you
  477. 17:36see a relief rebound, short covering,
  478. 17:38etc. But again, folks, when I brainstorm
  479. 17:41the catalysts that would push bond
  480. 17:43yields down and the dollar down, the
  481. 17:45only thing I got right now is you got to
  482. 17:48have a significantly weak piece of macro
  483. 17:51data coming out. And the only thing I
  484. 17:53see is tomorrow's data, the jobs number,
  485. 17:55because once we get into the second week
  486. 17:57of October, we're going to talk about
  487. 17:58CPI gain and PPI. And that's not going
  488. 18:01to be a good conversation. It might
  489. 18:02actually bring back the odds of an
  490. 18:04interest rate hike in October. Now, last
  491. 18:06thing I want to talk about here is the
  492. 18:08options market because you can see what
  493. 18:09they're betting on. So, this is a major
  494. 18:11bet that we got today. Somebody agrees
  495. 18:13with me betting on a TLT a rebound and
  496. 18:16they bought the 86 calls. The expiration
  497. 18:18date is all the way to 27. I'm not
  498. 18:20bullish all the way to 27. I'm shortterm
  499. 18:23bullish in the TFT because I think it's
  500. 18:24way oversold and it requires a rebound,
  501. 18:26an oversold rebound. I made a tweet that
  502. 18:28you guys might have caught that if we
  503. 18:30have a close above 78, it would force a
  504. 18:32short squeeze in the market. So, let me
  505. 18:34show you why. Here's the TLT. The
  506. 18:36expiration date is tomorrow, right? So,
  507. 18:38if you look at the calls, 78 has a huge
  508. 18:42number of open interest and volume. Look
  509. 18:44at this massive number of open interest
  510. 18:46right here at 78, 78 1/2, 79, 79 and
  511. 18:501/2, 80. you look at the puts, they're
  512. 18:52they're either closing or they don't
  513. 18:54really compete. So, all what you need is
  514. 18:56a little bit of a close above 78. All of
  515. 18:58a sudden, the market maker will be
  516. 18:59squeezed to the upside. Of course, this
  517. 19:01is why they fought it. They fought hard
  518. 19:02to close below 78 to avoid this kind of
  519. 19:05squeeze tomorrow, aka exercise maximum
  520. 19:07pain in the calls. And they might do
  521. 19:09that. They might make it happen and not
  522. 19:11really move above 78 tomorrow and then
  523. 19:13do it next week when we don't have that
  524. 19:15kind of concentration anymore. But the
  525. 19:17bottom line is if you look at the bets
  526. 19:19more and more bettors right now are
  527. 19:21switching to buy calls in the TLT than
  528. 19:24puts. So it's just a matter of time and
  529. 19:26I think that the last hope that we got
  530. 19:28got to be the jobs data coming out
  531. 19:29tomorrow. Now another important
  532. 19:31phenomenon that happened today related
  533. 19:32to the options market is Micron. So
  534. 19:34Micron reports earnings and initially it
  535. 19:36flushes down. You see the flush right
  536. 19:38here. Then came a wave of buying and
  537. 19:41even with this wave of buying let's say
  538. 19:43the shorts here covered the short-term
  539. 19:45shorts we have like Friday's expiration
  540. 19:47they covered and the price stuck at
  541. 19:49around 10:45 1050 and then we see the
  542. 19:52surge right here you see the volume of
  543. 19:54buying right what's up with that what is
  544. 19:56behind these kind of moves check out the
  545. 19:59options market this is micron the
  546. 20:00expiration date is Friday huge volume
  547. 20:03over 82,000 contracts showed up for the
  548. 20:071100 calls and hence The market makers
  549. 20:09said, "Well, I got to buy shares of
  550. 20:10Micron all the way to 1100 so I can
  551. 20:13cover my ass cuz I sold all of these
  552. 20:14contracts. I got to buy the shares." So,
  553. 20:16they push it all the way to 1100. And
  554. 20:18unfortunately, a lot of you watching
  555. 20:20this kind of action live. You begin to
  556. 20:22say, "Ah, you see that the technology
  557. 20:23stocks are going higher again. The
  558. 20:25market decided that the chip rat is
  559. 20:27going to resume." But at the end of the
  560. 20:28day, it's an options phenomenon. It's
  561. 20:30happening because somebody stamped on
  562. 20:32calls. And if there's no follow-up
  563. 20:34tomorrow, they drop the price down. So,
  564. 20:36you don't need to jump the gun when you
  565. 20:37see movements like this. You have to
  566. 20:39look at the bond market, you have to
  567. 20:40look, excuse me, at the options market.
  568. 20:41And if it's an options market
  569. 20:43phenomenon, there's an expiration date
  570. 20:44on it. Now, I'm going to reiterate. If
  571. 20:46you look at Micron, it's pretty much
  572. 20:48been flat for the last few days doing
  573. 20:50nothing. But the name of the game in the
  574. 20:51market, and I'm kind of baffled that a
  575. 20:53lot of you don't understand what I'm
  576. 20:54saying. I mean, I spent three videos
  577. 20:55this week explaining the same thing. The
  578. 20:57bond market dictates what's going to
  579. 21:00happen to the stock market. And the
  580. 21:02stock market is divided into two
  581. 21:03markets. You have the microns of the
  582. 21:05world, the Q's, the NASDAQ, the data
  583. 21:08center names that did pretty good in
  584. 21:10September. You have the rest of the
  585. 21:11market, the RSP, the IWM, the Dow Jones,
  586. 21:14the healthcare, the utilities, the
  587. 21:16staples, etc. who did badly in
  588. 21:18September. And part of the reason behind
  589. 21:19that is bond yields surged higher. As
  590. 21:22bond yields surge higher, they destroy
  591. 21:24the rest of the market, quote unquote.
  592. 21:26But they benefit the AI data center
  593. 21:29names such as Micron. Because the
  594. 21:30assumption by investors is okay bond
  595. 21:33yields are going higher that's bad that
  596. 21:35increases the cost of borrowing that
  597. 21:36increases the the recession odds in the
  598. 21:38economy. So anything that is sensitive
  599. 21:40to bond yields we have to dump. But the
  600. 21:42companies that are still generating a
  601. 21:44lot of cash and revenue, a lot of
  602. 21:46revenue growth like the hyperscalers and
  603. 21:48the companies receiving that cash like
  604. 21:50the AI data center infrastructure
  605. 21:52stocks, be the chips, be the turbines,
  606. 21:55be the fiber optics, whatever it is,
  607. 21:57they're kind of immune from a surge like
  608. 21:59this to a certain point. Of course, if
  609. 22:01rates continue to go up, there's a
  610. 22:02certain certain level where we say,
  611. 22:04okay, even the technology trade is not
  612. 22:06going to be immune to that. So, what
  613. 22:08happens if we have a relief in the bond
  614. 22:10market? If yields go down, you will see
  615. 22:12the losers benefiting. Losers from
  616. 22:15September benefiting because they went
  617. 22:16down for the exact reason of bond yields
  618. 22:19going up. So if yields come down, they
  619. 22:21benefit. They get a rebound. And vice
  620. 22:23versa. The names that benefited from
  621. 22:24yields going up, technology, micron,
  622. 22:27etc. If bond yields come down, you see a
  623. 22:29rotations out of them. Kabish, it's
  624. 22:32pretty easy. Spent three [ __ ] videos
  625. 22:33talking about the same thing and people
  626. 22:35still don't get it. Anyhow, moving on to
  627. 22:37the conclusion of this video. What do we
  628. 22:38have in the economic calendar tomorrow?
  629. 22:40Here it is again. The employment number.
  630. 22:43You better hope it's going to be a
  631. 22:44forazy number. Otherwise, that French
  632. 22:47problem is going to kiss the global
  633. 22:49market. It's going to be wet and sloppy
  634. 22:50and disgusting. So, let's hope that we
  635. 22:52can avoid that at least for a moment.
  636. 22:54Get a little bit of relief cuz there's a
  637. 22:56lot of bad things that are about to
  638. 22:57happen later on. But for now, let's just
  639. 22:59try to close on a positive note here. We
  640. 23:01wake up in the morning could be a
  641. 23:03disaster. But hey, I'm just going to try
  642. 23:04to be positive tonight. If we get a
  643. 23:06cooked jobs data, might see a relief in
  644. 23:08the bond market and we live to fight
  645. 23:10another day in some of these stocks in
  646. 23:12the market that went down big in the
  647. 23:14month month of September. But with that
  648. 23:16folks, this is all I got for you for
  649. 23:18now. Thank you for listening. Thank you
  650. 23:19for watching. I appreciate and I love
  651. 23:21all of you. I'll be talking to you again
  652. 23:23tomorrow. Good night.
  653. 23:30Heat. Heat.
  654. 23:40Heat. Heat.
  655. 23:50Heat. Heat.
  656. 24:35Oh,
  657. 24:40Let you go. Let you go.
  658. 24:48Let you go. Let you go.
  659. 24:56Let you go. Let you go.
  660. 25:01Let you go.
  661. 25:08Let you go. Let go.
  662. 25:22Heat. Heat.
  663. 26:03Heat. Heat.
  664. 26:08Heat. Heat.
  665. 26:30Heat
  666. 26:41up

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