WTF Is Happening In The French Bond Market? — Transcript
Full transcript
- 0:14All right.
- 0:17Today is Thursday, the 1st of October.
- 0:20Got a new month for you here. And this
- 0:22is a recap for the stock market
- 0:24activities today. In fact, I got a good
- 0:26one for you tonight. We have a really
- 0:28important discussion and let me stress
- 0:30out here that tomorrow's session in the
- 0:32stock market and specifically the
- 0:34reaction to the data we're getting which
- 0:36is the jobs number is the last piece of
- 0:39hope that we have left to save the
- 0:42global bond market. If that job number
- 0:44comes out hot, forget about it. There's
- 0:46nothing left that we have in the
- 0:48pipeline from a macro perspective or
- 0:50from any perspective that could cool
- 0:53down the global bond market. And we're
- 0:55teetering at the edge right now, folks,
- 0:57because as these yields surge higher,
- 1:00the likelihood that something is going
- 1:02to blow up becomes highly likely. You
- 1:04know, we see these bond yields surging
- 1:06higher, specifically in the long uh end
- 1:09of the bond market, be it in the US30
- 1:11bond yield or any long end of the bond
- 1:14market globally, be it Japan, be it UK,
- 1:16be it Italy, be it France, which is the
- 1:18subject of tonight's program. And the
- 1:21first thing that comes to mind is well
- 1:23it is because inflation of course I mean
- 1:25take for example what we see in the US.
- 1:27You can look at the 30-year bond yield
- 1:29and say yeah it is inflation it's Iran
- 1:32right Iran war uh the price of gasoline
- 1:35and that's why we see the bond market
- 1:38crashing in the long end and sending
- 1:40yield significantly higher. Of course,
- 1:43this is a valid and truthful statement
- 1:46that the perhaps at least one of the
- 1:48main reasons behind the surge in bond
- 1:50yields that we're seeing is the rise and
- 1:52come back of inflation. But folks, let's
- 1:55talk about the facts here and what's
- 1:56going on. Yes, we have the hawks at the
- 1:59Fed like Kashkari for example, who
- 2:01suddenly became a hawk and he says,
- 2:03"Yeah, we need to change the policy. We
- 2:06need to raise interest rates higher. The
- 2:08latest data did not change his view." He
- 2:11says inflation too high and we got from
- 2:13Dallas Logan. She came out and said we
- 2:15need 50 bips or more. On the other hand,
- 2:17we discussed Williams from New York this
- 2:19week and we discussed Waller. On top of
- 2:22that, Jefferson comes out, the vice
- 2:24chair, and he says we can wait. We don't
- 2:26need to raise rates right now. And
- 2:27folks, part of the reason why we see
- 2:29Williams and Jefferson and perhaps even
- 2:31Kashkari at some point is going to begin
- 2:33to flip because the bond market is doing
- 2:35the interest rate hike for them. the
- 2:37bond market is sending these yields
- 2:38higher where they don't have to do
- 2:40anything right now when it comes to the
- 2:42long end of the yield curve. And the
- 2:44truth is if you look at the odds, we
- 2:47know that what's going to happen here is
- 2:48more policy makers and leaning against
- 2:51the October rate hike. So, okay,
- 2:53December is in the back. Perhaps if the
- 2:55situation continues, that there's no
- 2:57improvement in inflation by that time,
- 2:59but we were just last week talking about
- 3:01the odds in the 70s, 70% plus, that
- 3:05we're going to get a rate hike in
- 3:06October. If you check out the odds right
- 3:08now, they collapsed all the way to 25%.
- 3:12So, the predominant odd that we're not
- 3:13going to have any interest rate hike in
- 3:15October. So, why the hell is the bond
- 3:18market not reflecting that? But the
- 3:20reality is it is reflecting it. So if
- 3:22you look at the 2-year which reflects
- 3:24the Fed policy which the Fed policy can
- 3:27control, you can see that yields went
- 3:29down today reflecting the fact that the
- 3:31odds went down to 25%. So the market is
- 3:34saying yes, we got it. We're probably
- 3:35not going to have a rate hike in
- 3:37October. But check out the long end of
- 3:39the yield curve. That's where the
- 3:40problem is. If you look at the 30-year
- 3:42bond deal, for example, it is still
- 3:44surging higher. We anticipate a top, but
- 3:46that's only going to happen if we get a
- 3:48major piece of weaker economic data. And
- 3:51we only have one left here, folks, and
- 3:53that is the jobs number. But what is the
- 3:55message here? Why do we see the two
- 3:57coming down reflecting the fact that
- 3:59we've reduced the odds to 25% from 70
- 4:02plus to 25% reflecting the statements by
- 4:05Jefferson and Williams that more and
- 4:07more fed zombies are now leaning toward
- 4:09no hike in October. There's this
- 4:11response right here. But why don't we
- 4:13see the response showing up in the 30
- 4:15years, 20 year, even the 10 year? I
- 4:17mean, you see the market, if you're
- 4:19watching the intraday action, if you
- 4:21look at the TLT, which is tracking, of
- 4:22course, the bond prices at the 20 year
- 4:25all the way to the 30, you can see that
- 4:26even today they're trying to push it
- 4:28higher. They're trying to say, "Okay,
- 4:29this is ridiculous. We need to push the
- 4:31TLT higher. We need to push yields
- 4:33down." But there is some sort of
- 4:34resistance. There's some sort of a
- 4:36driving force that keeps pushing these
- 4:39bond yields higher and higher and
- 4:41higher. I mean, you see it even in the
- 4:42IWM, which is really sensitive to bond
- 4:44yields. It wants to move higher. It got
- 4:46the support of the 200 days moving
- 4:48average. It wants to go higher, but it
- 4:50can't go higher without this coming
- 4:52down. And again, the last hope we got to
- 4:54bring this down is a significant weaker
- 4:57piece of data, macro data. It has to be
- 4:59really, really weak. And the jobs number
- 5:01is the only thing that we got right now.
- 5:03But I'm beginning to suspect, we go back
- 5:05to the conversation we began this video
- 5:07with. Is this what we're looking at
- 5:08right now happening because of inflation
- 5:12and the Fed policy that's going to
- 5:13follow? Not really, because this is
- 5:16reflecting it right here, the 2-year.
- 5:17So, there's something else that is the
- 5:20driving force of pushing long and bond
- 5:23yields higher, not just in the US, but
- 5:26across the globe. And then you look at
- 5:27the dollar. The dollar keeps surging
- 5:29higher. Yet, the Fed is talking softly.
- 5:32The Fed is beginning to change its tune
- 5:34to doubbish. Why aren't we seeing a
- 5:36response here? Why do we continue to see
- 5:38the dollar surging higher along with
- 5:41long-end bond yields such as the 30 bond
- 5:44yield? My hunch is something is about to
- 5:48break in an international market. There
- 5:50is a crisis happening right now in an
- 5:53international economy and that's the
- 5:55driving force behind what we see in the
- 5:58US long end of the bond market and for
- 6:01that matter the global long end of the
- 6:03bond market. UK, Spain, Italy, France,
- 6:07Germany, Japan. All of these yields are
- 6:09moving higher. It's a global phenomenon.
- 6:11And you can see it right here. You can
- 6:13see that the 10-year government debt,
- 6:15the yields are surging higher. Be it in
- 6:16Japan, be it in France. Look at this big
- 6:19jump that we see in France, in the US,
- 6:21in the UK. All of these yields are
- 6:23moving higher. Now, once again, we know
- 6:25what's going on. We know that the diesel
- 6:27exports, we are short cuz nothing is
- 6:29coming out of the Middle East anymore
- 6:31and nothing coming out of Russia
- 6:32anymore. In North America, we might see
- 6:35a diesel export ban. So, we get all of
- 6:37that. Maybe that's producing a little
- 6:39bit of fear in the bond market. That's a
- 6:41legitimate reason. And then you look, of
- 6:42course, at the headline that we got
- 6:44today that oil jumping 4%, China is now
- 6:46halting fuel exports. And according to a
- 6:49report by the Wall Street Journal, the
- 6:50US is sending about 10k troops, 10,000
- 6:54troops to the Middle East. Why the hell
- 6:55would you send 10,000 troops unless
- 6:57you're planning something? We know that
- 6:59uh inflation is going up because of this
- 7:02phenomenon. fuel prices, gasoline prices
- 7:04going up. You look at the ISM
- 7:06manufacturing report that we got today.
- 7:08Absolutely stunning. The activities
- 7:10index is pretty much flat month. The
- 7:12price index went higher by 6.8%
- 7:16and it's been increasing 24 consecutive
- 7:19months. We know that another reason for
- 7:21bond yields in the long end, 10 to 30
- 7:24going higher, is the fact that we have
- 7:26competition from the corporate bond
- 7:28market. The hyperscalers are issuing
- 7:30billions and billions of billions of
- 7:32dollars worth of bonds to finance the AI
- 7:34data centers. And for a lot of
- 7:36investors, they'd rather hold the bond
- 7:38by Google or Microsoft than the US
- 7:40government, UK government, French
- 7:42government, you name it. We know that
- 7:44part of the reason that bond yields are
- 7:46going up is we have an insane debt to
- 7:48GDP ratio. All of these G7 countries,
- 7:51all of these developed countries are
- 7:53pretty much fueled and financed and
- 7:56surviving based on debt. So you see the
- 7:58debt to GDP ratio skyrocketing. I mean
- 8:00we're talking about third world
- 8:01countries right now. 100% plus debt to
- 8:04GDP ratio in Britain, in Canada, in
- 8:06France, in Germany, in Italy, in Japan,
- 8:09in the US. And Germany is a a little bit
- 8:12better situation here. I misspoke when I
- 8:14said Germany, but Germany is close
- 8:15enough to getting to that 100% debt to
- 8:17GDP ratio. So why are we concentrating
- 8:20on France as the suspect here that is
- 8:23probably driving global bond yields
- 8:25higher and driving the US dollar higher?
- 8:28Well, let's take it one step at a time.
- 8:29What we know right now, if you look at
- 8:31the 10-year bond yield in France, it is
- 8:33or the debt rather, it's about 120% of
- 8:36GDP. You can see the surge here. This
- 8:38was a country that is in in in fiscally
- 8:41sound condition back in the 80s, even
- 8:43the '9s to a certain extent. The the
- 8:452000s was okay. was 100% under 100% debt
- 8:49to GDP ratio and then well all of a
- 8:51sudden financial crisis hits and just
- 8:53like any so-called developed country the
- 8:56central banks cabal begins to print
- 8:58money like crazy we see these debt to
- 9:00GDP ratios shooting up significantly
- 9:02higher now the question might be but m
- 9:04again let's go back to the previous
- 9:06chart right here why France why what is
- 9:09it a big deal here because France has a
- 9:11debt to GDP ratio of 120% but that is
- 9:14still better than the US that's still
- 9:16better than uh than Italy that's still
- 9:18better than Japan. What is the big deal
- 9:20here when it comes to France? Perhaps
- 9:22the answer behind that is the velocity
- 9:25where we see these bond yields surging
- 9:27higher. We're now close to 5% in the 10
- 9:30year in France. You can see it right
- 9:31here. Massive surge higher, close to 5%,
- 9:34something that we haven't seen in the
- 9:35French bond market uh since the
- 9:37financial crisis in 2008. But once
- 9:39again, Mav, the US 10year is close to
- 9:425%. So what is the big deal? big deal.
- 9:45There's something different and unique
- 9:47happening in France. I mean, look at
- 9:48this here. The France bond risk premium
- 9:51is now higher than Italy and Greece.
- 9:54This is France in blue, Greece in
- 9:56yellow, Germany. You can see that the
- 9:57the ratio between French and Germany in
- 10:00in uh in blue with Italy in green with
- 10:03Greece in yellow. When you begin to have
- 10:05a risk premium that is higher than
- 10:08Germany, that's concerning because
- 10:09Germany is in a financial mess right
- 10:11now. When you have a risk premium that
- 10:13is now exceeding Greece, something big
- 10:16is happening here. Something disastrous
- 10:18is happening behind the scenes that
- 10:20maybe we cannot pinpoint right now, but
- 10:23it's the kind of black swan that you're
- 10:25going to hear about after the fact and
- 10:27check it out right here. There it is. So
- 10:29again, let's go back to the charts that
- 10:31I showed you, right? So all of these
- 10:32countries have high debt to GDP ratios.
- 10:34The bond yields are going up. We got it.
- 10:36But look at the cost of insurance
- 10:38against debt. Look at what's going on
- 10:40here in France. We see a big surge this
- 10:43summer into September. We see a huge pop
- 10:46higher here. A rapid move that diverges
- 10:49away from every other market. Be it the
- 10:51US, be it UK, be it Germany, be it
- 10:54Spain, be it Italy. Once again, folks,
- 10:57something is cooking here in France. And
- 11:00if bond yields continue to go higher, I
- 11:02promise you that not next year, within
- 11:05weeks, we will hear about something
- 11:07blowing up in Europe. I'm willing to bet
- 11:09right now that it's going to be in
- 11:10France. So, the last hope that we have
- 11:12left to bring down global bond yields
- 11:15tomorrow is a weaker jobs data in the US
- 11:18because that's going to influence all of
- 11:20uh global bond markets. If we see the
- 11:2230-year bond yield going down because of
- 11:24a weaker macro data here in the US, you
- 11:26will see all of these global bond
- 11:28markets responding the same way. If we
- 11:30don't get that though, buckle up your
- 11:32seat belts. Something is about to
- 11:34collapse in France. You look at the
- 11:36issues that the French population is
- 11:39worried about, cost of living comes at
- 11:41over 50%. So all you hear about uh from
- 11:44Elon Musk and that kind of crowd is
- 11:46immigration, immigration, immigration.
- 11:48That's 30%. With or without immigration,
- 11:50right now the main concern is the cost
- 11:52of living. As interest rates go higher,
- 11:54that concern will continue to increase
- 11:56higher and higher and higher. And there
- 11:58is also another phenomenon that makes
- 12:00the French market unique. If we look at
- 12:02the stocks, the French stock market, it
- 12:04is way way underperforming the rest of
- 12:06Europe. You can see it right here.
- 12:08Year-to- date European markets up about
- 12:107 8%. The French market went negative in
- 12:13the majority of the decline happened
- 12:15right in the summer. Something happened
- 12:17and the insiders spotted it and they're
- 12:19beginning to bet on that outcome that
- 12:22something is going to collapse in
- 12:23France. It's going to be contagious and
- 12:25hence we see bond yields across the
- 12:28globe moving significantly higher in
- 12:30tandem. Take a look at the breadth. I
- 12:32mean we talk about the breadth in the US
- 12:34stock market being bad. Check out this
- 12:36the the French stock market. These are
- 12:38the French bond yield surging higher.
- 12:40You look at the French stock market
- 12:42again. The point we began to see the
- 12:44risk premiums going up. Watch what
- 12:46happened to the French stock market. It
- 12:48went down by about 10% rapidly. And if
- 12:50you look at underneath everything here,
- 12:52if you look at the breadth is
- 12:53disastrous. Every sector for the month
- 12:56is down. Every single sector in the
- 12:57French market is down. You look at the
- 12:59advancing declining 125 advancing 418
- 13:03declining. If you look at the new highs
- 13:05and lows, it's even more disastrous than
- 13:07the US market. In the last 5 days, we
- 13:10got 117 new highs versus 341
- 13:14new lows. You dig further in the French
- 13:17stock market and you could see that I
- 13:19mean the the largest company is about
- 13:21$300 billion. So put that in
- 13:23perspective. Largest company in the US
- 13:25is about $6 trillion. Wait till that
- 13:27collapses. That's going to be the big
- 13:29one. But anyways, right now look at the
- 13:31year-to-ate performance of some of these
- 13:33stocks. LVMH, their biggest companies
- 13:35down 30%. And you're going to notice
- 13:37that the only companies that are going
- 13:38higher are related to energy or AI. So
- 13:41total energies up 46% for the year.
- 13:44Hermes up a bit or down rather 39% one
- 13:48of their top companies BNP once again
- 13:50banks related to a lot of energy
- 13:52investments that's up 18% but you see
- 13:55again SLR down about 50% Seni down about
- 13:5914% you see all of these companies again
- 14:01this is metal is a a steel company up
- 14:0475% so that's following the same theme
- 14:07in the US with steel companies going up
- 14:09because of the build data data centers
- 14:10and then the list keeps going on and on
- 14:12you can see all these declines for the
- 14:14year 29% 30% 15% another 30% for dissult
- 14:19which is supposed to be doing pretty
- 14:20good as a defense contractor not so much
- 14:22you have some uh semiconductor companies
- 14:24up 90% that's the exception so when you
- 14:26have a market that is not concentrated
- 14:28in technology like the French market you
- 14:30see a disaster you see names down 30 40
- 14:3350% for the year so something
- 14:35significant here happening in this
- 14:37country and these are the kind of things
- 14:39that we don't hear about we don't
- 14:40understand we don't get the facts about
- 14:42until after the act so and so bank
- 14:45collapsed something happened in France
- 14:47but the insiders know about that and the
- 14:49leading indicator is the risk premium
- 14:50that we see the divergence in the risk
- 14:52premium in the French market is way way
- 14:55higher than its peers be it Germany be
- 14:57it Japan be it Spain be it Italy be it
- 15:00the UK now what happens what happens if
- 15:02we get a weak cooked piece of jobs data
- 15:05tomorrow in the US market and we see the
- 15:0830-year bond yield going down and we see
- 15:10the dollar coming down that's going to
- 15:12be the relief that global markets
- 15:15desperately need. Yesterday, in
- 15:17yesterday's video, we talked about who's
- 15:19going to benefit, what kind of stocks
- 15:20will benefit if we see the 30-year
- 15:23coming down. But what happens if the
- 15:2530-year comes down along with the
- 15:26dollar? Who benefits when the dollar
- 15:28goes down? So, let's go back to a chart
- 15:30or a slide that I gave you a long time
- 15:31ago. Here it is. These are the sectors
- 15:34that are dictated by the dollar. These
- 15:36are the sectors dictated by the bond
- 15:39market. These are the sectors and the
- 15:41stocks dictated by the volatility index
- 15:43and the hedging. So you see the
- 15:45exception here cap stocks, the chips,
- 15:47the NASDAQ and that market is doing fine
- 15:50for now so long as the volatility index
- 15:52is down. The massacre is right here as
- 15:54bond yields went higher. Dividend stocks
- 15:57went down, defensives went down, small
- 15:59caps down, regional banks down
- 16:01significantly. So home builders,
- 16:03biotech, profitist companies, high debt,
- 16:06retailers, real estate, all of them
- 16:08getting whacked. So a relief in the bond
- 16:10market where yields go down will be good
- 16:12for these sectors right here and a lot
- 16:14of them are oversold. A relief in the
- 16:16dollar on the other hand would benefit
- 16:18these names right here. I would take an
- 16:20exception to oil though because let's
- 16:22say if oil drops down meaningfully
- 16:25because of whatever piece of news then
- 16:26the dollar will go down with it. So
- 16:28right now we're in a dynamic because we
- 16:30have a geopolitical situation where the
- 16:32dollar and oil are trading together. But
- 16:34that is the exception. If that's a big
- 16:36if, the dollar goes down tomorrow.
- 16:38Commodities will benefit. Metals will
- 16:40benefit the most along with gold and
- 16:43silver chemicals. So you look at a name
- 16:45like Allen for example getting whacked
- 16:47as the dollar rallies. But did we get a
- 16:49bullish engulfing candle today with a
- 16:51slightly higher volume? Are they
- 16:53anticipating and readying for a drop in
- 16:55the value of the dollar and a relief
- 16:58rebound in the chemicals, the
- 16:59fertilizers, the emerging markets? I
- 17:01mean you can look at the international
- 17:04markets too not just emerging markets.
- 17:05So if you look at the European market
- 17:07the EUR which includes France that's
- 17:10also down about 8% or so and a little
- 17:12bit oversold. So if the dollar comes
- 17:14down tomorrow you're probably going to
- 17:16see a buying opportunity in the European
- 17:17market at least for a rebound or a
- 17:19swing. You'll see it also in the
- 17:21Brazilian market international markets.
- 17:23You see it in XME the metals. So you get
- 17:25the point here. Solar would benefit too.
- 17:27Solar getting whacked. But look at tan.
- 17:2910 is the ETF for solar that's getting
- 17:31whacked just down and down and down as
- 17:33the dollar ratties higher. If we get a
- 17:35little bit of relief in the dollar, you
- 17:36see a relief rebound, short covering,
- 17:38etc. But again, folks, when I brainstorm
- 17:41the catalysts that would push bond
- 17:43yields down and the dollar down, the
- 17:45only thing I got right now is you got to
- 17:48have a significantly weak piece of macro
- 17:51data coming out. And the only thing I
- 17:53see is tomorrow's data, the jobs number,
- 17:55because once we get into the second week
- 17:57of October, we're going to talk about
- 17:58CPI gain and PPI. And that's not going
- 18:01to be a good conversation. It might
- 18:02actually bring back the odds of an
- 18:04interest rate hike in October. Now, last
- 18:06thing I want to talk about here is the
- 18:08options market because you can see what
- 18:09they're betting on. So, this is a major
- 18:11bet that we got today. Somebody agrees
- 18:13with me betting on a TLT a rebound and
- 18:16they bought the 86 calls. The expiration
- 18:18date is all the way to 27. I'm not
- 18:20bullish all the way to 27. I'm shortterm
- 18:23bullish in the TFT because I think it's
- 18:24way oversold and it requires a rebound,
- 18:26an oversold rebound. I made a tweet that
- 18:28you guys might have caught that if we
- 18:30have a close above 78, it would force a
- 18:32short squeeze in the market. So, let me
- 18:34show you why. Here's the TLT. The
- 18:36expiration date is tomorrow, right? So,
- 18:38if you look at the calls, 78 has a huge
- 18:42number of open interest and volume. Look
- 18:44at this massive number of open interest
- 18:46right here at 78, 78 1/2, 79, 79 and
- 18:501/2, 80. you look at the puts, they're
- 18:52they're either closing or they don't
- 18:54really compete. So, all what you need is
- 18:56a little bit of a close above 78. All of
- 18:58a sudden, the market maker will be
- 18:59squeezed to the upside. Of course, this
- 19:01is why they fought it. They fought hard
- 19:02to close below 78 to avoid this kind of
- 19:05squeeze tomorrow, aka exercise maximum
- 19:07pain in the calls. And they might do
- 19:09that. They might make it happen and not
- 19:11really move above 78 tomorrow and then
- 19:13do it next week when we don't have that
- 19:15kind of concentration anymore. But the
- 19:17bottom line is if you look at the bets
- 19:19more and more bettors right now are
- 19:21switching to buy calls in the TLT than
- 19:24puts. So it's just a matter of time and
- 19:26I think that the last hope that we got
- 19:28got to be the jobs data coming out
- 19:29tomorrow. Now another important
- 19:31phenomenon that happened today related
- 19:32to the options market is Micron. So
- 19:34Micron reports earnings and initially it
- 19:36flushes down. You see the flush right
- 19:38here. Then came a wave of buying and
- 19:41even with this wave of buying let's say
- 19:43the shorts here covered the short-term
- 19:45shorts we have like Friday's expiration
- 19:47they covered and the price stuck at
- 19:49around 10:45 1050 and then we see the
- 19:52surge right here you see the volume of
- 19:54buying right what's up with that what is
- 19:56behind these kind of moves check out the
- 19:59options market this is micron the
- 20:00expiration date is Friday huge volume
- 20:03over 82,000 contracts showed up for the
- 20:071100 calls and hence The market makers
- 20:09said, "Well, I got to buy shares of
- 20:10Micron all the way to 1100 so I can
- 20:13cover my ass cuz I sold all of these
- 20:14contracts. I got to buy the shares." So,
- 20:16they push it all the way to 1100. And
- 20:18unfortunately, a lot of you watching
- 20:20this kind of action live. You begin to
- 20:22say, "Ah, you see that the technology
- 20:23stocks are going higher again. The
- 20:25market decided that the chip rat is
- 20:27going to resume." But at the end of the
- 20:28day, it's an options phenomenon. It's
- 20:30happening because somebody stamped on
- 20:32calls. And if there's no follow-up
- 20:34tomorrow, they drop the price down. So,
- 20:36you don't need to jump the gun when you
- 20:37see movements like this. You have to
- 20:39look at the bond market, you have to
- 20:40look, excuse me, at the options market.
- 20:41And if it's an options market
- 20:43phenomenon, there's an expiration date
- 20:44on it. Now, I'm going to reiterate. If
- 20:46you look at Micron, it's pretty much
- 20:48been flat for the last few days doing
- 20:50nothing. But the name of the game in the
- 20:51market, and I'm kind of baffled that a
- 20:53lot of you don't understand what I'm
- 20:54saying. I mean, I spent three videos
- 20:55this week explaining the same thing. The
- 20:57bond market dictates what's going to
- 21:00happen to the stock market. And the
- 21:02stock market is divided into two
- 21:03markets. You have the microns of the
- 21:05world, the Q's, the NASDAQ, the data
- 21:08center names that did pretty good in
- 21:10September. You have the rest of the
- 21:11market, the RSP, the IWM, the Dow Jones,
- 21:14the healthcare, the utilities, the
- 21:16staples, etc. who did badly in
- 21:18September. And part of the reason behind
- 21:19that is bond yields surged higher. As
- 21:22bond yields surge higher, they destroy
- 21:24the rest of the market, quote unquote.
- 21:26But they benefit the AI data center
- 21:29names such as Micron. Because the
- 21:30assumption by investors is okay bond
- 21:33yields are going higher that's bad that
- 21:35increases the cost of borrowing that
- 21:36increases the the recession odds in the
- 21:38economy. So anything that is sensitive
- 21:40to bond yields we have to dump. But the
- 21:42companies that are still generating a
- 21:44lot of cash and revenue, a lot of
- 21:46revenue growth like the hyperscalers and
- 21:48the companies receiving that cash like
- 21:50the AI data center infrastructure
- 21:52stocks, be the chips, be the turbines,
- 21:55be the fiber optics, whatever it is,
- 21:57they're kind of immune from a surge like
- 21:59this to a certain point. Of course, if
- 22:01rates continue to go up, there's a
- 22:02certain certain level where we say,
- 22:04okay, even the technology trade is not
- 22:06going to be immune to that. So, what
- 22:08happens if we have a relief in the bond
- 22:10market? If yields go down, you will see
- 22:12the losers benefiting. Losers from
- 22:15September benefiting because they went
- 22:16down for the exact reason of bond yields
- 22:19going up. So if yields come down, they
- 22:21benefit. They get a rebound. And vice
- 22:23versa. The names that benefited from
- 22:24yields going up, technology, micron,
- 22:27etc. If bond yields come down, you see a
- 22:29rotations out of them. Kabish, it's
- 22:32pretty easy. Spent three [ __ ] videos
- 22:33talking about the same thing and people
- 22:35still don't get it. Anyhow, moving on to
- 22:37the conclusion of this video. What do we
- 22:38have in the economic calendar tomorrow?
- 22:40Here it is again. The employment number.
- 22:43You better hope it's going to be a
- 22:44forazy number. Otherwise, that French
- 22:47problem is going to kiss the global
- 22:49market. It's going to be wet and sloppy
- 22:50and disgusting. So, let's hope that we
- 22:52can avoid that at least for a moment.
- 22:54Get a little bit of relief cuz there's a
- 22:56lot of bad things that are about to
- 22:57happen later on. But for now, let's just
- 22:59try to close on a positive note here. We
- 23:01wake up in the morning could be a
- 23:03disaster. But hey, I'm just going to try
- 23:04to be positive tonight. If we get a
- 23:06cooked jobs data, might see a relief in
- 23:08the bond market and we live to fight
- 23:10another day in some of these stocks in
- 23:12the market that went down big in the
- 23:14month month of September. But with that
- 23:16folks, this is all I got for you for
- 23:18now. Thank you for listening. Thank you
- 23:19for watching. I appreciate and I love
- 23:21all of you. I'll be talking to you again
- 23:23tomorrow. Good night.
- 23:30Heat. Heat.
- 23:40Heat. Heat.
- 23:50Heat. Heat.
- 24:35Oh,
- 24:40Let you go. Let you go.
- 24:48Let you go. Let you go.
- 24:56Let you go. Let you go.
- 25:01Let you go.
- 25:08Let you go. Let go.
- 25:22Heat. Heat.
- 26:03Heat. Heat.
- 26:08Heat. Heat.
- 26:30Heat
- 26:41up
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