World Wide Technology Championship Preview: Course Breakdown, Model & Best Picks — Transcript
Full transcript
- 0:06Welcome to the Second Cup podcast. I'm
- 0:08Greg Ducharm and this is your Worldwide
- 0:11Technologies tournament preview. It's
- 0:14been a while since I've had the chance
- 0:16to speak with all of you. So, uh I guess
- 0:18this is the time to say what a week. And
- 0:21it was an incredible week. Um we didn't
- 0:23get a chance to really review any of the
- 0:25Mexico Open down at Fedanta. Uh we'll
- 0:28take a look at a couple of things from
- 0:30that tournament today, but we're going
- 0:31to primarily focus on what's upcoming
- 0:34this week at the Worldwide Technology
- 0:36Championship. Um so, hey, like I said,
- 0:39what a week. Why didn't we get a chance
- 0:41to get into the Dant last week? Well, uh
- 0:45I had a wedding. My sister got married.
- 0:48It was a beautiful ceremony. Um it was a
- 0:51wonderful time. So, we all had a great
- 0:53time. for those of you that are
- 0:54wondering. I appreciate all the warm
- 0:57comments that we got uh last week. So,
- 1:00it was great, but now we're back to the
- 1:02grind, back to work, digging into all of
- 1:05these fall events. Uh and we'll do the
- 1:07same in 2027 when the PGA Tour season
- 1:10really kicks off. So, if that's the kind
- 1:13of thing that you're into, well, hit
- 1:15that subscribe button, like the video,
- 1:17leave a comment. I' I've really enjoyed
- 1:19engaging with all of you uh on all this
- 1:21stuff. So, we got a lot to get into
- 1:23tonight. Let's get right into it um
- 1:26right away. And we'll start with I I do
- 1:29want to just look at the leaderboard
- 1:31from last week because there are a
- 1:32couple things that really stood out to
- 1:34me. Um this is what took place at uh the
- 1:38Mexico Open at Vidant World last week.
- 1:41Andrew Novak wins 25 under par.
- 1:43Incredible performance. If you're
- 1:45watching on YouTube, you could see this.
- 1:47Um, I have this leaderboard up on rickr
- 1:50rungood.com
- 1:51and Andrew Novak wins, but he shoots 61
- 1:55and 62 in rounds two and three. 6162.
- 1:59This was incredible. There were a couple
- 2:01of other things that really stood out to
- 2:03me with Andrew Novak. And over all four
- 2:06days, he was either first, second, or
- 2:09third in proximity to the hole. First,
- 2:13second, or third. You look at Steven
- 2:15Fisk and Chris Ventura who were right
- 2:17behind him in second. Andrew Novak
- 2:20averaged 10 feet closer in his proximity
- 2:23to the hole for the week. Just
- 2:25absolutely incredible stuff from him.
- 2:27And then to add to it, he gained 8.9
- 2:308.19 strokes putt in and lost four on
- 2:34Sunday. Lost four strokes put in on
- 2:36Sunday. Still gained eight for the week.
- 2:39Still won by five. Just incredible stuff
- 2:42from Novak. Um he played from the
- 2:44fairway and when he did he was
- 2:47absolutely lethal and absolutely dialed
- 2:49in with those irons. So huge win from
- 2:53Andrew Novak. Um it was a great
- 2:55performance from Steven Fisk who and
- 2:58Chris Ventura. They come in to tie for
- 3:00second. They shoot 63 on Sunday. Great
- 3:02performances from them. A big move from
- 3:05Mackenzie Hughes in the FedEx Cup. He
- 3:08moves all the way up to 101st in the
- 3:10FedEx Cup standings. And I got to say
- 3:12with the RSM Classic coming up, um I
- 3:15know we have we have uh you know three
- 3:17more tournaments. We have this we have
- 3:19uh we'll go to Austin and then we're
- 3:22going to play the RSM for the final
- 3:24event of the fall. And I think that this
- 3:26week, this T4 finish for McKenzie Hughes
- 3:29gives him a great chance to get into the
- 3:31top 100 and keep his card for next year.
- 3:34Ben Griffin we haven't seen a whole lot
- 3:37of um haven't seen a whole lot of him
- 3:39this fall. The end of the season last
- 3:41year wasn't great and he showed up
- 3:45showed up in a big way. Got the putter
- 3:47going again. Gained over five strokes
- 3:49putting uh finishes in the top 10. Um in
- 3:53fact top five T4 for him. Eric von
- 3:56Royant same thing. Haven't seen much of
- 3:57him. Uh haven't seen many great
- 4:00performances from him but big T6 finish
- 4:02here. headed now this week to a golf
- 4:05course that he's won on at Alcardell.
- 4:07We'll get into that in a little bit. Um,
- 4:10so while I have this scorecard up, let's
- 4:12go over some of our results, some of the
- 4:14bets from last week. We actually got
- 4:16four rounds in this week, but uh, and I
- 4:19didn't have a grid for you. It's been,
- 4:21like I said, what a week. It's been a
- 4:23little crazy for me, so I I haven't had
- 4:26notebooks. I haven't had official grids.
- 4:28Uh, the work's still being done. and I
- 4:30just haven't had the time to really
- 4:32dress it up the way I like to. Uh the
- 4:35matchup we had was Kada Nakajima over
- 4:38Jordan Smith at plus 105. Jordan Smith
- 4:41played great. He finished tied 16th and
- 4:43beat Kada Nakajima by two uh with a 64
- 4:47on Sunday. So that was, you know, kind
- 4:50of a a crushing defeat in the only
- 4:53matchup that I offered last week. Um I
- 4:56am gonna just jump off of this. I I'll
- 4:59show myself here back on screen. Uh
- 5:02finishing positions, we had all top 20s
- 5:05again and we had some good results here.
- 5:07A couple good wins. Blades Brown top 20.
- 5:10He finished tied 19th which is good
- 5:12enough for a top 20. So that hits that
- 5:14was at plus 128. Cristian Bazidenhout
- 5:17also finished T19. We had him for a top
- 5:2020 plus 205. So that was very effective
- 5:25as well. Chan Kim and Kevin Roy. I liked
- 5:28them for top 20s and they missed the
- 5:30cut. Uh so we went 5050 on the finishing
- 5:33positions outrights. We took Ben James
- 5:37and Neil Shipley. They both finished
- 5:39tied 16th. So nice showings. Uh but it
- 5:42wasn't Andrew Novak and that was um you
- 5:46know unable to cash but nice to hit on
- 5:49the top 20s. So looking ahead to the
- 5:51worldwide technologies championship, we
- 5:54have, you know, I would say uh quite a
- 5:57few top 20s. I I've been finding a lot
- 6:02of success with them and the way that
- 6:04we've been going through and building
- 6:05these models, it's really showed a lot
- 6:07of value and I think the the value is
- 6:10really shown in the top 20 market. So
- 6:12we're going to put a little bigger
- 6:14emphasis on that. Um, I'm I've been
- 6:17getting frustrated with the matchups
- 6:18lately.
- 6:20I I've been much more effective with the
- 6:22finishing positions. So, we're going to
- 6:24lean into that a little more tonight.
- 6:25There are actually no matchups that I
- 6:28liked. Uh, so, but I have extra top 20
- 6:31finishing positions and a couple
- 6:32outrights that I think are really
- 6:34interesting and we're going to dive into
- 6:37all of that. Before we do, um, we have
- 6:41to take a look at the golf course, which
- 6:43I think is pretty interesting. So, I'm
- 6:45I'm going to go ahead and share my
- 6:47screen again here. Like I said, I don't
- 6:50have a notebook. Normally, I I like to
- 6:52summarize all of this data. Uh, and and
- 6:55I think that kind of gives us a a good
- 6:57idea of some notes to read through. I
- 6:59don't have that tonight, but these are
- 7:01the winners. This is just the
- 7:03spreadsheet. This is like the raw data
- 7:05that I have. And this is what the
- 7:08winners looked like entering the week.
- 7:09We also have what the winners did the
- 7:11week of. So Ben Griffin won this
- 7:13tournament last year at 29 under and he
- 7:16won by two. Austin Ecro won the year
- 7:19before at 24 under. He won by one. And
- 7:22Eric Vonroyan won at 27 under in a
- 7:27memorable finish. I believe he shot 29
- 7:29on the back nine, maybe 28. Uh but it
- 7:32was a 62 to close for him and he won by
- 7:35two. So, really impressive stuff from
- 7:37Eric Vonroyan. Now, the past couple of
- 7:39seasons, we haven't had any strokes gain
- 7:41data at this venue. Uh, but there were
- 7:44still a couple of things that I wanted
- 7:46to take a look at. That's why all this
- 7:47is blank because there's just no data.
- 7:50Um, but look at these guys making 30
- 7:53birdies. Um, really impressive. 27
- 7:56birdies and three Eagles for Vonroyan.
- 7:59And then uh Ben Griffin and um Austin
- 8:03Ecro made 30 birdies and they're making
- 8:06less than six bogeies. So really you
- 8:09really got to go low. Now this is a
- 8:14fascinating aspect right here. Look at
- 8:16the fairways these guys hit. 51 51 and
- 8:1952
- 8:22out of 54 fairways. That is remarkable.
- 8:25um you're not going to miss very many
- 8:28fairways and it almost almost eliminates
- 8:32driving. I I think there's a world where
- 8:34that really favors long shots and it
- 8:37favors distance.
- 8:39I I'm not leaning too heavy into the
- 8:42distance this week. I I do think it's
- 8:44something to pay attention to. I do
- 8:45think it's important. I think there are
- 8:48some other avenues where you can have a
- 8:49lot of success here. I I don't think
- 8:51distance is the most important thing.
- 8:54Um, but you can look at accuracy and
- 8:57throw it out the window because
- 8:58everybody is pounding fairways this
- 9:01week. Same with greens and regulation.
- 9:04You know, they're the Greens are over
- 9:058,000 square feet here um on the 7,400
- 9:08yard golf course. Everybody hit over 60
- 9:11greens. All three winners. 63 from Ben
- 9:14Griffin, 60 from Ecro, 62 from Eric
- 9:18Vonroyan. This is one of those places
- 9:20where you can take stroke scanned around
- 9:22the green and completely throw it out
- 9:25the window. You can just throw it right
- 9:27out the window. It doesn't mean
- 9:28anything. Uh and then when you see that
- 9:31number of greens of regulation, this is
- 9:32what it takes as far as putts. About 110
- 9:35putts, you know, 110 to 115 putts is
- 9:39going to get the job done when you're
- 9:40hitting 60 greens or more. Um it's at
- 9:43least going to get you into the mix. So
- 9:45that's pretty typical. Nothing really
- 9:48stands out there. This was just a there
- 9:51are a couple of really interesting
- 9:54statistics. This doesn't mean anything.
- 9:57Um, but all three winners finished the
- 10:00weekend with 6663.
- 10:04All three shot 66 in the third round.
- 10:06All three shot 63 in the final round. I
- 10:09said Eric Vonroy shot 62. He shot 63. So
- 10:13did Ben Griffin. So did Austin Ero. So,
- 10:17um I guess come Sunday you're going to
- 10:19have to shoot 63. That's just what it
- 10:21takes around here at El Cardonal. Um and
- 10:25this is of course a Tiger Woods venue.
- 10:28So, yeah, couple of couple of
- 10:30interesting things. Um I find it to be
- 10:32fascinating. Another anomaly here. Maybe
- 10:36all three winners were in a tie for
- 10:38fifth after round two. Exactly. Tie for
- 10:41fifth after round two. Just fascinating
- 10:44to me. Um, again, doesn't really mean
- 10:47anything. Maybe it's something to watch
- 10:49on Friday night. Uh, who's in that tie
- 10:52for fifth and that's probably going to
- 10:54be the guy to go 6663 over the weekend.
- 10:57Just an interesting tidbit. All right,
- 10:59let's take a look at what these guys
- 11:01looked like entering the week. Um, Ben
- 11:03Griffin was 12th in the world. Ecro was
- 11:0562nd in the world. Von Royan 193rd in
- 11:09the world. This was a really big
- 11:11comeback win for Von Royan. But um I
- 11:14would say they're all pretty solid
- 11:16players. Ben Griffin obviously last year
- 11:19was having an elite year. This was the
- 11:22week when he switched to a mallet putter
- 11:24and just kind of went crazy. Um but you
- 11:28know this is the these are not wild long
- 11:32shots. They're just um really good
- 11:35players. Pretty good drivers. Uh, all of
- 11:37them inside the top 81 in uh, strokes
- 11:41gained off the tee. All in the top 90 in
- 11:44driving distance. Again, it doesn't
- 11:46sound like a big deal. Top 90. Like, my
- 11:48goodness. This is why I I'm not using it
- 11:51as a reference point at all. Ben
- 11:55Griffin's not short by any means. You
- 11:57know that when you watch him play, but
- 11:59he's 73rd in driving distance last year
- 12:02coming in. It's a full season of uh you
- 12:05know, it's a full season of data. He
- 12:07hits it plenty far. He's just not the
- 12:09longest guy. Uh Austin Ecro, same thing.
- 12:12He's 88th in driving distance. He's long
- 12:14enough. That's all we're looking for
- 12:16here is long enough.
- 12:18I mentioned how driving accuracy just
- 12:21doesn't really mean anything. Um Ben
- 12:23Griffin was 105th, Von Royan was 131st,
- 12:27and Ecro was 19th. and you look at what
- 12:30they did for the week and it doesn't
- 12:31really make a huge difference.
- 12:33Everybody's hitting fairways this week.
- 12:35Um, so not a big deal. I I really don't
- 12:38think driving is much of a factor at
- 12:41all. While all these winners are decent
- 12:44drivers, I I just don't think it weighs
- 12:46into the model a single lick. Approach
- 12:50plays a different story. Ben Griffin was
- 12:5324th entering the week. Austin Ecro was
- 12:5627th and Von Royan was 95th which was
- 12:59one of his better statistical
- 13:02categories. So I do think iron play is
- 13:04an opportunity to really separate
- 13:06yourself kind of like we saw from Andrew
- 13:08Novak last week. Short game I mentioned
- 13:11it doesn't mean anything. Um it it lit
- 13:14it means nothing to me this week. You
- 13:16can out hit your short game. If you see
- 13:19a guy with a bad short game, don't be
- 13:22afraid. This is the week to utilize it.
- 13:25You're going to have to hit the ball
- 13:26well and you're going to have to putt
- 13:27well. But like we so often see,
- 13:30you know, what does putting matter? It
- 13:33matters a whole lot during the week. I'm
- 13:35not sure it means anything at all
- 13:37entering the week. So, we have some
- 13:39tactics, some techniques that we'll use
- 13:41to assess the putting, try to figure out
- 13:42who's going to putt well. Uh, but Ben
- 13:44Griffin was 18th and putted great. Um,
- 13:48Von Royan was 130th and Ekro was 132nd
- 13:51for the year coming into this
- 13:53tournament. So, and again, they all had
- 13:56very similar number of putts, hit very
- 13:58similar number of greens. It just
- 14:00doesn't doesn't really mean much. Uh,
- 14:03good T green players. 18th for Ben
- 14:05Griffin, 52nd for Ecro, 137th for Eric
- 14:09Vonroyan. Obviously, he um was just not
- 14:14playing great before coming in and
- 14:16striping it around this golf course.
- 14:19Proximities
- 14:21uh didn't really do much for me.
- 14:23Everything else is kind of the same
- 14:25story. We did see some pretty good
- 14:27recent form. Ben Griffin was coming off
- 14:29a second, tied 10th, tied 12th, tied
- 14:32ninth, tied 11th in his five previous
- 14:35starts. For Ecro, you had a couple of
- 14:37T46s, a tied 18th, and a tied sixth in
- 14:41his five previous starts. And even Von
- 14:44Royan, who again, he kind of stands out
- 14:46as the weaker player with all these
- 14:49previous stats. He finished tied 23rd in
- 14:51his previous start, tied 16th right
- 14:54before that, tied 30th right before
- 14:57that. So, he was having a decent fall
- 14:59and then to end the prior season, he
- 15:01missed a couple of cuts.
- 15:03Um, course history, Vonroyan obviously
- 15:06didn't have any. Uh, everybody else
- 15:09finished top 25. So Ben Griffin had a
- 15:12T-23 and a T-24. Ecro had a T-23 before
- 15:16their win here. So I I do think there's
- 15:19something to that. It's it's not the
- 15:21stickiest course. It's probably middle
- 15:22of the pack and quote unquote
- 15:25stickiness. Um but I I also am a little
- 15:29cautious with that because we've only
- 15:30had three events here. So I think
- 15:32there's a chance that course history
- 15:34starts to you know there's definitely a
- 15:37course type. Definitely a course type.
- 15:40You got to hit long approach shots
- 15:42close. Um, with big greens, big pass
- 15:45palum greens.
- 15:47That's kind of your key to success. So,
- 15:49we're going to spend a lot of the a lot
- 15:52of energy in the model trying to figure
- 15:55out who is going to play really well
- 15:57with their irons, uh, who's going to
- 15:59give themselves a lot of good looks for
- 16:01birdie and who has a good chance of
- 16:03having a spike putting week on these
- 16:05pass palum greens. All right, so let's
- 16:08get right into that. We'll we'll switch
- 16:10over here. I'll show you the model that
- 16:13uh that we've created and how we go
- 16:16about doing it. So, these are the
- 16:19players. This is kind of the total
- 16:21ranking. We'll walk through that in a
- 16:23little bit, but these are the metrics
- 16:24that I included. We have uh strokes
- 16:28approach over the last 24 rounds. It's
- 16:30weighted at 15%.
- 16:33Let's take a look at some of the leaders
- 16:34in that category. Oh, surprise surprise.
- 16:37There's Ben Goals. Chris Kirk second,
- 16:40Billy Horschel, Ryan Gerard, Trace Crow,
- 16:43uh you got Lucas Glover, Jackson Kovven,
- 16:46Ben James, Luke Clanton,
- 16:48and Tom Hogi is 10th in that category.
- 16:52There's Blades Brown, by the way, number
- 16:5411 in the approach category. Strokes
- 16:58game putting over the last 12 rounds.
- 17:00Again, that's a a a fairly small window
- 17:03that I like to use when it comes to
- 17:05putting. And there are more approach
- 17:08buckets and more putting buckets that
- 17:10are coming up in just a little bit in
- 17:12this model. Um, but here this is these
- 17:15are the best putters over the last 12
- 17:17rounds. Weighted at 10%. Sammy Valamaki,
- 17:20he came in tied second last year uh at
- 17:22this venue. Trace Crowe, Michael Kim,
- 17:25Vince Whley, AJ Uert, Adrienne Dumonte
- 17:28De Chesar, uh Alvo Ortiz, Garrick Higgo,
- 17:32there's Blades Brown again, and Sheamus
- 17:34Power, and there's Luke Clinton at
- 17:36number 11. Very interesting. Tita Green,
- 17:41you know, I did uh 10% last 36. So, what
- 17:45I did my adjustment for this week, I
- 17:48narrowed the Teta Green bucket a little
- 17:51bit. And because short game is so
- 17:55minuscule to me, I went to 10%. I
- 17:58normally do 15 or 20% for the TD Green
- 18:01play. Um I I took down the importance of
- 18:04that. I took down the weight of that a
- 18:06little bit. Uh just because I I think
- 18:10it's better you're better off looking at
- 18:11approach and off the tea. Um you know,
- 18:14ball striking is probably a better view.
- 18:17But tea green is so generally important.
- 18:19It does give us a good idea of who the
- 18:20best players are. So I included it to a
- 18:23smaller degree in a smaller window than
- 18:26normal. But you got Chris Ventura,
- 18:28Blades Brown, Jackson Kovven, Ben James,
- 18:32Ryan Gerard. Th right there, those are
- 18:34like your three favorites. Kven, James,
- 18:37Gerard, no surprise. You got Ben Kohl's,
- 18:40Austin Hit, who just won the Kornferryy
- 18:42Tour finals. Um he's their number seven
- 18:46in the TD Green performance. Jackson
- 18:48Suber, Marco Penge. He's going to be
- 18:52probably fairly popular this week. Um,
- 18:56he seems to fit the mold to a lot of
- 18:59people. I'm I'm not necessarily in a
- 19:01place where I trust him. Kevin Roy,
- 19:04number 10. I trusted him last week.
- 19:06Kevin Roy kind of let me down, but he
- 19:08does model out pretty well. I did
- 19:11strokes gain total over the last 24
- 19:13rounds um that at 15%. So this is maybe
- 19:18a little lower than normal but not much.
- 19:20Um pretty, you know, I I like to get a
- 19:22total idea who are the best players in
- 19:25this field. I did narrow this window.
- 19:29Okay, so I wanted some recent form. If
- 19:31you look at what we just went over with
- 19:33those winners, they all had they they
- 19:36were having a pretty good fall. You
- 19:37know, their last three events leading in
- 19:39were was pretty good for all three of
- 19:42them. So, I wanted to add some weight to
- 19:45recent form. And the best way to do that
- 19:47is strokes gain total, but I typically
- 19:50get a wide range of strokes gain total.
- 19:53And the adjustment I made in this was
- 19:56narrowing that. So, let's go 24 rounds.
- 19:59Okay, we're talking about the last six
- 20:01tournaments or so. Um, I'd be even
- 20:04comfortable going 12. I I think narrower
- 20:06is just better, but in this instance, I
- 20:09I found this to be the best at 24 last
- 20:1124 rounds. So, you got Ben James, Austin
- 20:15hit Blades Brown, Jackson Kovven, Alvaro
- 20:19Ortiz, Ben Kohl's, Ryan Gerard, Sheamus
- 20:22Power, Chris Kirk, and Neil Shipley.
- 20:26There's Marco Penge at number 11, and
- 20:28Michael Kim number 12. Uh, so pretty
- 20:32good there. We got a couple of um these
- 20:36are what's called distribution buckets.
- 20:38So, how often how often does someone
- 20:41gain two or more strokes approaching the
- 20:43green? This one I went with a really
- 20:45wide range. Did over the last hundred
- 20:47rounds, but it has a pretty small weight
- 20:50of just 5%. This is guys like Ben
- 20:53Kohl's, Ameliano Glo, uh Chris Kirk, Ben
- 20:57James, Zack Blair, Zack Bosshu, which by
- 21:00the way, um Ryan says in the comment,
- 21:03"I'm really, really high on Zack Bosshi
- 21:06this week." Me too, Ryan. I'm right
- 21:08there with you. I think Zack Bshu is set
- 21:10for a great week. This is a reason why
- 21:12this is an indicator that he's a very
- 21:15consistent iron player. you know, 17% of
- 21:19the time he's going to gain two or more
- 21:22strokes approaching the green with just
- 21:24his iron play goes a long way. You know,
- 21:27that's I mean, it's less than once every
- 21:29tournament, but it is relative to this
- 21:34field, it's sixth best in the field.
- 21:36Even Ben Kohl's and Ameliano Grio who
- 21:38are tied for first, Chris Kirk too, they
- 21:42do it less than once a tournament as
- 21:43well at just 21%. So, Zack Bshu is right
- 21:46there. Ryan Gerard, Lucas Glover, Paul
- 21:49Peterson, those guys are right there.
- 21:51Billy Horchel's number 10 as well at a
- 21:5415% clip. Now, when you go to three or
- 21:58more strokes,
- 22:00uh, same deal. Last 100, 5% weight. Now,
- 22:04you see this just doesn't happen very
- 22:06often. So, it's 8% for Luke Glover, who
- 22:09Lucas Glover who leads the way. Ben
- 22:11James at 6.1%.
- 22:14Uh Ryan Gerard, Ameliano Greo, Zack
- 22:17Blair. These guys are all right in that
- 22:19six six% range. David Skins, there's
- 22:23Sammy Valamaki again. Uh Ben Kohl's, no
- 22:26surprise. Carl Phillips,
- 22:29uh Keith Mitchell, they're all in that
- 22:315% range. You know, Johnny Kefir, Mark
- 22:34Hubard, they do it from time to time
- 22:37upon occasion. Um I I did a very similar
- 22:41thing with putting. I wanted to include
- 22:42some putting distribution. So this is
- 22:45last 100 rounds weighed at five. How
- 22:48often do guys gain two or more strokes
- 22:49putting
- 22:51Alvaro Ortiz leads the way. You got to
- 22:55be careful with that. Um not a lot of
- 22:57his rounds are PGA Tour rounds, but
- 23:01wonderful player nonetheless. Has played
- 23:03in the Masters. Michael Kim is number
- 23:06two and you got Rasmus Hoygard, AJ Ur,
- 23:09McKenzie Hughes, Bo Hustler, Peter
- 23:12Malnady, Sammy Valamaki, Harry Hall.
- 23:16These are kind of usual suspects. Maybe
- 23:17Sammy Valamaki is is not a guy I would
- 23:21expect to be there, but everybody else
- 23:22on this list is a great putter.
- 23:26Rasmosygard probably wouldn't expect him
- 23:28to be there either, and he's a number
- 23:29three 20% of the time. Now, how often do
- 23:33you go nuts, gain three or more strokes
- 23:35putting? This happens less often again.
- 23:38Michael Kim, top of the list. In his
- 23:41last 100 rounds, he does it 11% of the
- 23:44time. Gains three or more strokes in a
- 23:47round. Really impressive. Ryan Gerard's
- 23:49number two. That's impressive. There's
- 23:51Blades Brown at number five. My boy CBZ
- 23:55at number seven. Denny McCarthy, no
- 23:57surprise, he's at eight. Sammy Valamaki
- 24:00again there at number six.
- 24:03Um, all right. Then I got into
- 24:05opportunities. This is how often do you
- 24:07hit it inside of 15 feet?
- 24:1036 last 36 rounds weighted at at a five.
- 24:15Um, you got Ben Martin, John Perry.
- 24:18These are some really good iron players.
- 24:19Lucas Glover, Tom Hogy, Chris Kirk. It's
- 24:23different than strokes gained approach.
- 24:26Um, it doesn't care what your bad shot
- 24:28is. You know, it it doesn't matter if
- 24:31you hit it into the water. It doesn't
- 24:33matter if you shank it into the woods.
- 24:36It's just counting how often do you hit
- 24:38it inside of 15 ft. So, this is a this
- 24:41is a pretty good metric. I like the
- 24:43opportunities metric. Um, I like it as
- 24:45long as you have some strokes gain
- 24:48approach metrics in there as well, which
- 24:51we do with approach distribution and
- 24:54strokes gain approach in general.
- 24:57Um, strokes gain, pass palum. We have
- 25:00pass palum greens. Who are the best
- 25:02players? I did last 50 rounds for this
- 25:05and I weighed as at a 10. I think this
- 25:07is actually pretty important. Who are
- 25:09the best putters on this surface? We
- 25:12combine that with the guys who have been
- 25:14the best putters over the last 12 rounds
- 25:16and now we have a way to figure out who
- 25:19has the best chance of putting the best
- 25:21this one week. Sheamus Power top of the
- 25:24list. Love to see that. Ben Griffin
- 25:27number two.
- 25:29John Vanderland. Aldrick Pocket.
- 25:33I I don't I don't like the looks of
- 25:35Pocket other than this. Trace Crow. I'm
- 25:38very interested in Trace Crow. Davis
- 25:41Riley, Ben Silverman, he has my
- 25:43attention. Marty Doe, he's
- 25:47lingering around.
- 25:49You know, he never really catches my
- 25:50eye. He's lingering around. He He won't
- 25:53seem to go away. Pearson Cudy played
- 25:55great last week. Uh, also on past Palum
- 25:58Greens. Neil Shipley played pretty well.
- 26:00There's Sammy Valamaki again. There's
- 26:02Cristian Baziden again. So, you see
- 26:05there's some usual suspects.
- 26:08Um, I did strokes gain easy easy golf
- 26:11courses. Uh, last 36 rounds
- 26:15on easy golf courses. Um, weighted as a
- 26:19five. We don't need to go through these
- 26:21names, but Blades Brown top of the list.
- 26:24Um, Sheamus Power does pretty well.
- 26:26Keith Mitchell does pretty well. Um, but
- 26:28I didn't put a huge weight on that. I'm
- 26:31much more inclined to look at El
- 26:33Cardinell. So, this is the best course
- 26:35history here. I did the last 36 rounds.
- 26:38That's basically just going to
- 26:39incorporate every every round that has
- 26:42taken place here. I weighed this to a
- 26:4410. You got Sammy Valamaki, top of the
- 26:47list. Nick Dunlap, remember I said
- 26:50everybody hits fairways here. Uh could
- 26:53be a good thing for Nick Dunlap. Garrick
- 26:55Higgo, who by the way we have uh right
- 27:00here 17 Kuga. Love long shots. Higo,
- 27:03Lowour, Hustler, Ventura. This week we
- 27:06have seen some of those names. Now
- 27:08Garrick Higgo popping up here as well as
- 27:11a great course history guy. Jackson
- 27:13Suber, Patrick Rogers, Ben Griffin, no
- 27:18surprise uh as a winner here. Matt
- 27:21Cooer, Justin Lowour, Dylan Woo, Austin
- 27:24Ecro, there's Hustler, uh who you
- 27:27mentioned, he's number 11 on this list.
- 27:30Andrew Putnham has my interest as well,
- 27:32number 12. Um, you got Max Grazerman,
- 27:37there's Ben Silverman 15th, Taylor
- 27:39Pendrth. So, that's um that's how I went
- 27:42through and created this model. And then
- 27:45let's just look quickly up. So, this is
- 27:47the overall score. Uh, it's kind of like
- 27:50a leaderboard or power rankings. And the
- 27:53thing that I really like about this is,
- 27:56you know, we go through what the golf
- 27:58course looks like, right? What what is
- 28:00important on the golf course. We make
- 28:03adjustments to our base model. The base
- 28:05model is we got to have some approach in
- 28:07there. We got to have recent putting. We
- 28:09got to have recent form. We use strokes
- 28:11gain total for that. TA green such a
- 28:14great predictor. That's always going to
- 28:16be in there. Um course history is going
- 28:18to be in there all the time. And then
- 28:20are there little adjustments? Are we
- 28:22looking for spike putters? We looking
- 28:23for a specific surface? Uh spike
- 28:26approach players? All those kind of
- 28:28things we can weave into the model as
- 28:30well. and we come out with the total
- 28:32score. And here's the cool thing about
- 28:35the total score is right next to it I
- 28:38have um their salary. And this is their
- 28:42DraftKing salary. So, it's a great tool
- 28:44for making lineups. It's actually what
- 28:46this is built for. But I I think it also
- 28:49really, you know, it can point you in
- 28:52the right direction for value in the
- 28:54odds boards as well. Um, like this is
- 28:58not the same list as the the favorites.
- 29:02Of course, Ben James is number one.
- 29:04Okay, Blades Brown's number two. Those
- 29:06guys are, you know, they're heavy
- 29:09hitters in this field. Uh, they're
- 29:11expected to do well. They're both in the
- 29:13$9,000 range on DraftKings. There's a
- 29:16couple of 10K guys. Ryan Gerard, number
- 29:18nine in the model. He's at 10,200.
- 29:21Um Jackson Kovven at 10,400 the most
- 29:25expensive player he's number three in
- 29:28the model. Um so you know it would tell
- 29:31you Blades Brown may be a better value
- 29:33this week than Jackson Kovven maybe. But
- 29:37when you're dealing with margins this
- 29:40close
- 29:41I'm going to still go through and do
- 29:43normal analysis. I'm not really
- 29:46concerned that Blades Brown is two,
- 29:48Jackson Quin is three. That means their
- 29:50model likes them. That's all it is. And
- 29:52it's no surprise to see these favorites
- 29:54in here. But what was really interesting
- 29:57to me is, okay, Sheamus Powers number
- 29:59four, he's 8,100. Sammy Valamaki number
- 30:03five, he's 7700. Christian Bazidenho
- 30:067,900 is number six. That has my
- 30:10attention. I'm really going to pay
- 30:11attention and look into that. Alvaro
- 30:14Ortiz is number eight in the model. He's
- 30:16at 7,200.
- 30:19Again, I've double checked that. I'm I'm
- 30:21not overly interested in it at that
- 30:23point. Um, yes, he can play. Doesn't
- 30:26really have my attention.
- 30:29There's Gerard at he's top 10 in the
- 30:31model. Obviously,
- 30:33right there belongs there. Ben Griffin
- 30:36at 11. You got your usual suspects. Ben
- 30:39Kohl's always models out well. 12th in
- 30:42the model is actually disappointing for
- 30:44Ben Kohl's, but I I still think you can
- 30:46ride that horse. I I wouldn't bet him to
- 30:48win, but he fits the bill. Trace Crow at
- 30:52number 13 here really has my attention.
- 30:56I am a huge fan of what Trace Crow has
- 30:59going on. And at 7,700, I I you know,
- 31:02there's a lot of good value on him.
- 31:04There's good value on him all over the
- 31:06markets. So, I like Trace Crow. Harry
- 31:08Hall at 17 catches my attention. Ben
- 31:11Silverman at 16. He's a $6,000 guy.
- 31:15Okay, he's really going to catch my
- 31:16attention. Love what I'm seeing out of
- 31:19Ben Silverman. We'll talk about him in a
- 31:20little bit. Um Luke Clanton at 7400,
- 31:27number 20 in the model. We got to talk
- 31:30about him because I think this could be
- 31:32a smash spot for him. Really excited
- 31:35about that one. Um, so as I do this, you
- 31:38know, I I I look down to like uh Neil
- 31:41Shipley.
- 31:43Then if you can hear that, I apologize.
- 31:47Sounds like a smoke alarm. I think it's
- 31:48my neighbors.
- 31:51I don't think that's going on in my
- 31:52house. Hopefully everything's okay over
- 31:55there. Anyway, I digress. Neil Shipley,
- 31:59number 25 in the model. Um, really good
- 32:03value on him. Zack Bosshu 26 in the
- 32:06model. Uh Ryan, I really like him, too.
- 32:10Um let's see. Mackenzie Hughes played
- 32:12great last week. He's there at number
- 32:1429. Zack Blair's at 28. This isn't the
- 32:17spot for him. I don't like this golf
- 32:20course for him. I didn't like last
- 32:21week's golf course for him either. This
- 32:23just isn't the spot for him. So, you
- 32:25know, that's basically what the model
- 32:27look. Look, here's Keith Mitchell at 33.
- 32:29He's at 9600. That's kind of
- 32:31questionable value. the model's okay on
- 32:34him. I I think his advantage kind of
- 32:37gets taken away here. Uh but you got a
- 32:40Hayden Springer at 6,900 or Justin
- 32:42Lowour at 6,800. They're much more
- 32:45attractive than Keith Mitchell at 96 and
- 32:48they're they're rated in the model
- 32:50pretty close together. Um so that that's
- 32:53basically what we're looking at here. Um
- 32:55but I want to get through and pick some
- 32:57of these guys out. Look,
- 33:00Ben James, Blades Brown, Jackson Kovven.
- 33:03Uh, these are the top three guys in the
- 33:07model. I'm fine with all of them. You
- 33:10want to You have a good feeling on any
- 33:12of them in and outright. Uh, I prefer
- 33:16Ben James and Jackson Quinn as winners
- 33:19uh over Blades Brown. Blades Brown's in
- 33:22a tough place with odds, but I think
- 33:25he's a great value in DFS.
- 33:27You know, I don't I don't like the top
- 33:2920 market for Blades Brown. I don't like
- 33:32the outright market for Blades Brown
- 33:34either, but he's very solid player. I
- 33:37think the best place to play him is in
- 33:38DFS, and he he would make sense to me
- 33:41there, depending on ownership, of
- 33:44course. Um, but there's a lot of other
- 33:47value here. So, we're going to get into
- 33:48it. Again, I don't have an official card
- 33:51here, but we're going to go through and
- 33:52look at some of these profiles because a
- 33:54lot of these are really useful. I want
- 33:58to start with outrights, and I'm going
- 34:00to go right to Luke Clanton. Okay, Luke
- 34:04Clanton is at 69 to1, 7,400 on
- 34:09DraftKings. Okay, now I want to take a
- 34:13look at the overview for him first. I
- 34:17love this page right here. This is like
- 34:18the Madden rating. So, he's pretty long
- 34:21off the tee, decently accurate, hits a
- 34:24lot of greens.
- 34:27Maybe strokes gained off the tea. He
- 34:29struggles, right? He's only a 37 there,
- 34:31which is peculiar given these distance
- 34:34and accuracy are much better. That means
- 34:36he's taken penalty shots.
- 34:39Not really a factor this week. So, this
- 34:42is a red mark. This is a bad mark that
- 34:44I'm not worried about at all. stroke
- 34:46game approach. I'm very worried about
- 34:48that. It's his best category, his best
- 34:50area, an 83. We'll call him the Madden
- 34:54rankings. He's an 83 in approach play
- 34:57around the green. That's his worst
- 34:59category.
- 35:01He could hit 65 greens this week for all
- 35:04I know. Um could easily hit over 60
- 35:07greens, which means he's only going to
- 35:09miss 12, which means I'm not worried
- 35:11about his short game. putting. I'm very
- 35:15interested in putting. Don't necessarily
- 35:18care about year-long putting statistics.
- 35:21Uh I care about recent ones. So, he's a
- 35:2427 in putting. It looks like a weakness.
- 35:27It's something we got to investigate
- 35:28further. He's fine. TA Green kind of get
- 35:32the total aspect here. He can make
- 35:34birdies um kind of average in that
- 35:37category. But the strengths are approach
- 35:39play distance. It's kind of the
- 35:42strength. Green's a regulation. These
- 35:44are the strengths which I like. I I want
- 35:47those things this week. The weaknesses
- 35:49around the green I do not care about and
- 35:52putting I do care about. So that's what
- 35:55we got to take a deeper look at. So now
- 35:58let's go over here to results
- 36:00and see how Mr. Clanton has been
- 36:03playing. T-29 last week in Mexico, T11
- 36:08in Bermuda, T7 in Utah, and he did miss
- 36:13the cut at the Builtmore, but three
- 36:15really good starts in the fall. And his
- 36:18approach play has been good at times.
- 36:22There's at least been a spike. I mean,
- 36:24in Utah, he gained over eight strokes
- 36:26approaching the green. Had a good week
- 36:28in Bermuda as well. Wasn't great last
- 36:31week. But here's the thing. This is why
- 36:34Luke Clanton is on my outright card.
- 36:37Last three events putting, he's gained
- 36:39over two and a half strokes. Um, and he
- 36:42putted well, gained three and a half
- 36:44strokes at the Rocket Classic as well.
- 36:47So, um, but that was such a long time
- 36:49ago, but really this fall he's played
- 36:52four events and he's gained over two and
- 36:54a half strokes in three of them. So,
- 36:56this is a guy that is taking one of the
- 36:58weaknesses and it's trending in the
- 37:01right direction in a big way. Another
- 37:03weakness is irrelevant and the strengths
- 37:07are looking great. Everything looks
- 37:10really strong to me. Take a look at his
- 37:13course history. He's only played here
- 37:14once. It was last year. He finished tied
- 37:1746th. Um, I'm I'm fine with that. I'd
- 37:21like that to be a little better, but I'm
- 37:23at at 69 to1. I'm fine with it. Uh, so I
- 37:28love what we're seeing out of Luke
- 37:30Clanton. I I think he's a very smart
- 37:32outright, you know, very worth the risk,
- 37:35I should say, when it comes to an
- 37:37outright market.
- 37:40Harry Hall is next. Uh, he's at 31 to1,
- 37:44which is kind of in the range we've seen
- 37:46a lot of winners lately. Um, I I like
- 37:48this I I like this mark. I like this
- 37:51number. Uh, so we're getting taking a
- 37:54look at the overview here. We'll go into
- 37:57the same category.
- 37:59Distance is fine with Harry Hall. This
- 38:02may be a concern. He struggles with
- 38:04greens of regulation. Um, struggles with
- 38:07accuracy. I'm not worried about approach
- 38:10plays above average. His short game's a
- 38:13strength and I don't really care.
- 38:15Although maybe it's more valuable for
- 38:17him because he misses greens. But I
- 38:18think this green and regulation number
- 38:20is going to go way up because the greens
- 38:22are huge here. But we got to look at his
- 38:24approach play cuz it's average. He
- 38:26misses a lot of greens.
- 38:29Um but his putting is a strength as well
- 38:31which is which is a good thing.
- 38:33Everything else is pretty much above
- 38:35average. Driving accuracy is below
- 38:37average. Greens of regulation below
- 38:39average. Strokes gain off the tea below
- 38:42average for Harry Hall. Huge fairways.
- 38:45Not worried about the driving accuracy.
- 38:47Huge greens. Not worried about the
- 38:50greens in regulation. Great short game.
- 38:52Great putting in above average approach.
- 38:55This works for me. Let's look at what
- 38:58he's done recently. Okay, remember
- 39:01average approach play. Yet he's gained
- 39:05strokes approaching the green a lot
- 39:08since the Windom Championship.
- 39:11One, two, three, four, five, six, seven
- 39:15straight events. Harry Hall's gain
- 39:18strokes approaching the green. Yes, some
- 39:20of them, three of them were on the U DP
- 39:24World Tour, but you got a T-23 last week
- 39:27in Mexico, T13 in Utah. Uh, European
- 39:31Masters, he finished third. There's some
- 39:34really good starts here for Harry Hall.
- 39:37And as you already know, he's a great
- 39:40putter as well. Gained five and a half
- 39:42strokes last week. Uh basically gained
- 39:46strokes putting very frequently. Maybe
- 39:49had a couple of difficult stretches uh
- 39:52in Europe, but for the most part, he's a
- 39:55great putter and is capable of picking
- 39:58up five, six, seven strokes putting for
- 40:00a week. So really like what I'm seeing
- 40:02out of Harry Hall and I think he it
- 40:04makes him a outright candidate because
- 40:09he has a lot of he has spike
- 40:10capabilities with iron play and spike
- 40:13capabilities with putting. I I think it
- 40:16really works. Let's just check his
- 40:18course history. Um so this Ed elk he has
- 40:21a T14 in 2024, missed the cut in 2023.
- 40:27Um, but really strong performance the
- 40:29last time he played. Uh, so yep. Love
- 40:33what I'm seeing out of Harry Hall. So I
- 40:35I like Clanton and I like Hall as
- 40:38outright
- 40:40top 20s. Uh, I like Luke Clanton as
- 40:43well. He's at plus 220. So I have
- 40:46Clanton in two places because I I do
- 40:49think there's a really strong
- 40:50possibility that he plays well and is
- 40:53not ready to win. I still at at that
- 40:56number at 69 to1 I think it's worth
- 40:59taking a shot. It's worth him getting
- 41:01onto the grid. Um but um I also I think
- 41:07there's good reason to include him in in
- 41:09the top 20 market especially at plus
- 41:11220. So we got Luke figured out. Big fan
- 41:16of him this week. Let's take a look at
- 41:19Ben Silverman.
- 41:22All right. Ben Silverman rated out
- 41:24pretty well in our model as well. Uh
- 41:27where was he exactly? He was somewhere
- 41:29around the 17 mark.
- 41:3416. Ben Silverman was 16th. So let's
- 41:37look at the overview for him. Driving
- 41:41distance is a weakness. Okay. I don't
- 41:44necessarily like that. Very accurate. I
- 41:47don't care. Greens of regulation very
- 41:49good. Um, it will be this week as well.
- 41:53Everything else is above average for
- 41:54him. Putting is a strength and and like
- 41:58I said, everything else above average.
- 42:00So, the big weakness for Ben Silverman
- 42:02is distance. I don't think that's that
- 42:05big of a deal. Let's take a look at his
- 42:07results. See what we get this week. Um,
- 42:10see what we have coming in here. Vidanta
- 42:13World big golf course, wide fairways. He
- 42:16averaged 300 yards off the tea, finished
- 42:18tied 19th. Bermuda, small golf course.
- 42:22Uh, distance definitely not a factor
- 42:24there. He finished tied third. Utah
- 42:27missed the cut. Builtmore tied 43rd. So,
- 42:30it's been a solid fall for Ben
- 42:32Silverman. And I really like what I'm
- 42:34seeing with his approach play. Uh, gain
- 42:37he's gained over three strokes
- 42:38approaching the green in three of his
- 42:41last four starts, which is all of the
- 42:43fall events. And in Bermuda, he picked
- 42:46up six strokes approaching the green.
- 42:48But even on a bigger golf course like
- 42:50last week at Vidanta World, um he's
- 42:53still able to pick up three strokes.
- 42:55Now, the weakness for him would be the
- 42:57putting. Uh it just hasn't been great
- 42:59this fall and and he's still able to put
- 43:02up a top five finish while losing
- 43:04strokes putting. I think that's a really
- 43:06good sign and it it gives me hope that
- 43:10Ben Silverman could potentially pop. You
- 43:13know, maybe on on second thought, maybe
- 43:15at 92 to1, he should have been uh an
- 43:18outright card for me, but I got him here
- 43:20at plus 260 for a top 20. Uh and I
- 43:25believe he's played pretty well here,
- 43:26too. Yes, one start at El Cardinal T-21.
- 43:31That was last year, 2025. So, um I think
- 43:35the golf course can work for him as
- 43:37well.
- 43:39Let's move on to one of my favorites.
- 43:43One of the favorites in the model. This
- 43:45is Trace Crow. Trace Crow is 58 to1 to
- 43:49win. Uh but I like him in the top 20
- 43:53market at plus 200. Um very good at just
- 43:57about everything for Trace Crow. Uh he's
- 44:01long. He's
- 44:04below average in accuracy. Again, don't
- 44:06care about that. hits a lot of greens.
- 44:10Um, a good 80 approach player. Very
- 44:13good. Terrible short game. Biggest
- 44:16weakness. Again, like I said, I don't
- 44:18care about that one lick. Uh, very good
- 44:21putter,
- 44:22very good at everything else. And look
- 44:24at this. He's in the 100th percentile
- 44:26and birdie or better percentage.
- 44:28I mean, I didn't really factor that into
- 44:30the model and I don't think it's really
- 44:34worth doing, which is a story for a
- 44:37different day. But I don't hate seeing
- 44:39that. I I like seeing a guy that makes a
- 44:41lot of birdies. Um, and so that's a nice
- 44:44thing to check off the list. Let's see
- 44:46how old Trace Crow has been playing this
- 44:48fall. Uh, Asheville T24,
- 44:52Utah T3, Bermuda T34, Vidantto World
- 44:56last week T11. Look at the approach
- 44:59play. Gained 10 strokes approaching the
- 45:01green in Utah. Picked up another five
- 45:04last week. gained strokes in every
- 45:06single event. Putting has also been
- 45:09sensational. Uh, seven strokes putting
- 45:12last week, five the week before that in
- 45:14Bermuda, gained strokes putting every
- 45:17single week this fall. Uh, these metrics
- 45:20look great for Trace Crow. And he has
- 45:24one start here, which was two years ago,
- 45:272024, and he withdrew. Um,
- 45:31don't love that. Don't love that. But it
- 45:34is a factor in the model and it's a it's
- 45:38actually a pretty big factor in the
- 45:39model and he still rates out pretty well
- 45:42where uh Trace Crow is number 13 in my
- 45:47model which includes that course
- 45:49history. So I I really like what I'm
- 45:51seeing out of Trace Crow top 20 for him
- 45:53plus 200.
- 45:55All right, let's move on to Michael Kim.
- 45:59This one just feels he's at plus 148 for
- 46:02a top 20. I'm pretty high on Michael Kim
- 46:06as well. We'll take a look at the
- 46:08overview here just to get a general
- 46:10sense. Things he struggles in accuracy,
- 46:14greens of regulation, strokes gained off
- 46:16the tea. Those things are all going to
- 46:18get a bump this week. What's interesting
- 46:21is the greens of regulation are very
- 46:23low. Strokes gain approach much better.
- 46:26It's a signal to me that he's rather
- 46:28aggressive and he likes to hit it close.
- 46:31Um, generally that's very similar to
- 46:33Harry Hall. They're aggressive iron
- 46:35players. Um, everything else pretty much
- 46:38average except putting which is very
- 46:40good for Michael Kim. Uh, he's a 92 in
- 46:44the Madden ratings. So, I love to see
- 46:46that. Let's take a look at the results
- 46:48page for Michael Kim. T7 at the Bay
- 46:52Current and a T7 at the uh FedEx Open
- 46:56Def France and he also played in
- 46:58Asheville where he finished tied 24th.
- 47:00So, three starts in the fall, two on the
- 47:03PGA Tour, all three top 25 finishes and
- 47:07he's available at plus 148 for a top 20.
- 47:10I I think ultimately Michael Kim is just
- 47:12a very talented player and a very good
- 47:17player in this field who's
- 47:20not quite priced there. 38 to1. I mean,
- 47:23I guess that's probably pretty fair.
- 47:25It's probably pretty darn fair. Uh but I
- 47:28like it for a top 20 quite a bit.
- 47:31Putting has been great. Um picked up
- 47:33over three strokes putting in all of
- 47:35these events in the fall. that picked up
- 47:38strokes approaching the green in two out
- 47:40of the three so far this fall. Bay
- 47:43current being the only one where he lost
- 47:45over in Japan. I think we see a better
- 47:47performance from him this week in
- 47:49Mexico. So, I like Michael Kim there.
- 47:52Last but not least is Cristian
- 47:54Bazidenhout.
- 47:55Uh CBZ, I want to go back to the well
- 47:58here. Um, last week CBZ really rated out
- 48:03well in long on long golf courses, which
- 48:07caught my attention cuz he's a short
- 48:10hitter as you're going to see here.
- 48:12Driving distance, he's a 34, right? He's
- 48:15a very accurate, but he loses strokes
- 48:17off the tea. But I know that he can
- 48:20handle long golf courses, so I'm I'm not
- 48:22overly concerned about that. Then look
- 48:25at everything else. Strokes gain
- 48:27approach 85 around the green I don't
- 48:29care but 96 putting in 93 ta green 76
- 48:34total 88 birdie or better percentage 78
- 48:38you don't think of Christian Bazidenhow
- 48:40as a birdie maker but he is so I see a
- 48:44lot of these ratings just in general
- 48:46being very high he's a very good player
- 48:49with essentially one weakness and it's
- 48:52distance but he plays really well on
- 48:55long golf courses
- 48:56Um, so I'm all in on that. It's It's
- 48:59boring. It's not exciting, but it works
- 49:02here. It works in a big way. Look at the
- 49:05finishes in the fall. Um, he did play
- 49:08the Builtmore and he missed the cut.
- 49:11Then he went to the President's Cup and
- 49:13I think he performed pretty well,
- 49:15although they lost. Then T32 in Utah,
- 49:19T17 at the Bay Current, T19 at Vidanta
- 49:23World. Uh I think he's going to make it
- 49:25three in a row here uh at the Worldwide
- 49:28Technologies Championship. Gained
- 49:30strokes approaching the green in his
- 49:32last three uh and gained significant
- 49:35strokes putting in two out of his last
- 49:36three as well. Six gained six strokes
- 49:39putting at the Bay current and over
- 49:42three and a half at the uh Bank of Utah
- 49:45Championship. So the putting's good, the
- 49:48approach play is good. We know he plays
- 49:50well on long golf courses.
- 49:54We don't quite get the odds we did last
- 49:56week where we had him at plus 205. This
- 49:58time we get him at plus 160, but I'm
- 50:00still going back to the well.
- 50:02Absolutely. Going back to the well on
- 50:04CBZ. Let's just check one more thing.
- 50:06We'll look at his course history. Um,
- 50:09and he played here
- 50:122021. That's not even here. Not even
- 50:15here. So, no no history at uh El
- 50:18Cardinal. El Camilleani finished tied
- 50:2115th.
- 50:23Not going to do us any good this week
- 50:26though. But yep, love the fit. Love the
- 50:28fit for CBZ. Uh so that's all we have
- 50:32for you here uh today as far as those
- 50:34players are concerned. We'll just recap
- 50:36them quickly. I like Luke Clanton and
- 50:39Harry Hall uh as outrights. 6,900 for uh
- 50:43I'm sorry, 69 to1 for Clanton, 31 to1
- 50:46for Harry Hall. Um, those are solid
- 50:49outrights to me. We got Ben Silverman at
- 50:53plus 260 for a top 20. Luke Clanton at
- 50:56plus 220 for a top 20. Trace Crow plus
- 50:59200 for a top 20. Michael Kim and
- 51:02Cristian Bazidenhout plus 148 plus 160
- 51:06for a top 20 as well. We'll keep track
- 51:08of those throughout the week. It's
- 51:11really who my model liked and who I
- 51:13picked out even diving in uh a little
- 51:16further from that. So again, really
- 51:20interesting stuff. I can't wait to see
- 51:21how how the um new model continues to
- 51:25perform. Of course, it changes week in
- 51:27and week out, but it's been very helpful
- 51:29in identifying these kind of guys that
- 51:32hit those top 20 markets regularly. Um
- 51:35very effective in finding value plays in
- 51:38DFS.
- 51:40and it's
- 51:42moderately effective in picking out
- 51:44rights. I think that's it's the least
- 51:46effective in that. Um but it can
- 51:48definitely pick some value plays in
- 51:51other markets which I think is the
- 51:53primary purpose. And um I think that's
- 51:56ultimately the best form of analysis.
- 51:58It's one thing if you could pick an
- 52:00outright. There's a lot of luck involved
- 52:02in that. Um, when you can really hammer
- 52:05these guys that you just know are going
- 52:06to play well, that should play well and
- 52:08do, that's a that's a good way to make
- 52:12an investment and it's a good way for me
- 52:14to analyze it as well because I need the
- 52:16stats to back it up. You know, I don't
- 52:18want to be just drawing names out of a
- 52:20hat and hoping that it works. So, you
- 52:23know, I want to have some really serious
- 52:25analysis like we do here. And I think
- 52:28the model's a really helpful tool for
- 52:30that. If you want to continue to get
- 52:32that serious in-depth analysis, player
- 52:35analysis like this, we're doing it each
- 52:37and every week right here on the second
- 52:39cut. We'll also have round recaps for
- 52:41you, tournament recaps as well on
- 52:44Sundays, um, which we're going to
- 52:46continue to do throughout the fall. This
- 52:49Friday is a little up in the air. I'm
- 52:51not sure. I have a uh, my son has a
- 52:53hockey tournament. I'll be in a hotel
- 52:55and I don't know yet if I'm going to be
- 52:57able to do anything on Friday. Sunday at
- 52:59some point I will. Uh so we'll at the
- 53:02very least have a Sunday recap for you
- 53:05which I'm really looking forward to. Um
- 53:07this is your preview for the Worldwide
- 53:12Technologies Championship at El
- 53:14Cardonal. Uh really looking forward to
- 53:16this Tiger Woods design, seeing who can
- 53:19go out there and make a ton of birdies
- 53:22this week. Hopefully we picked all the
- 53:23right guys. Hey, I'm Greg Ducharm.
- 53:26Thanks so much for watching us here on
- 53:27the second cut. Until next time, let's
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