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World Wide Technology Championship Preview: Course Breakdown, Model & Best Picks — Transcript

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  1. 0:06Welcome to the Second Cup podcast. I'm
  2. 0:08Greg Ducharm and this is your Worldwide
  3. 0:11Technologies tournament preview. It's
  4. 0:14been a while since I've had the chance
  5. 0:16to speak with all of you. So, uh I guess
  6. 0:18this is the time to say what a week. And
  7. 0:21it was an incredible week. Um we didn't
  8. 0:23get a chance to really review any of the
  9. 0:25Mexico Open down at Fedanta. Uh we'll
  10. 0:28take a look at a couple of things from
  11. 0:30that tournament today, but we're going
  12. 0:31to primarily focus on what's upcoming
  13. 0:34this week at the Worldwide Technology
  14. 0:36Championship. Um so, hey, like I said,
  15. 0:39what a week. Why didn't we get a chance
  16. 0:41to get into the Dant last week? Well, uh
  17. 0:45I had a wedding. My sister got married.
  18. 0:48It was a beautiful ceremony. Um it was a
  19. 0:51wonderful time. So, we all had a great
  20. 0:53time. for those of you that are
  21. 0:54wondering. I appreciate all the warm
  22. 0:57comments that we got uh last week. So,
  23. 1:00it was great, but now we're back to the
  24. 1:02grind, back to work, digging into all of
  25. 1:05these fall events. Uh and we'll do the
  26. 1:07same in 2027 when the PGA Tour season
  27. 1:10really kicks off. So, if that's the kind
  28. 1:13of thing that you're into, well, hit
  29. 1:15that subscribe button, like the video,
  30. 1:17leave a comment. I' I've really enjoyed
  31. 1:19engaging with all of you uh on all this
  32. 1:21stuff. So, we got a lot to get into
  33. 1:23tonight. Let's get right into it um
  34. 1:26right away. And we'll start with I I do
  35. 1:29want to just look at the leaderboard
  36. 1:31from last week because there are a
  37. 1:32couple things that really stood out to
  38. 1:34me. Um this is what took place at uh the
  39. 1:38Mexico Open at Vidant World last week.
  40. 1:41Andrew Novak wins 25 under par.
  41. 1:43Incredible performance. If you're
  42. 1:45watching on YouTube, you could see this.
  43. 1:47Um, I have this leaderboard up on rickr
  44. 1:50rungood.com
  45. 1:51and Andrew Novak wins, but he shoots 61
  46. 1:55and 62 in rounds two and three. 6162.
  47. 1:59This was incredible. There were a couple
  48. 2:01of other things that really stood out to
  49. 2:03me with Andrew Novak. And over all four
  50. 2:06days, he was either first, second, or
  51. 2:09third in proximity to the hole. First,
  52. 2:13second, or third. You look at Steven
  53. 2:15Fisk and Chris Ventura who were right
  54. 2:17behind him in second. Andrew Novak
  55. 2:20averaged 10 feet closer in his proximity
  56. 2:23to the hole for the week. Just
  57. 2:25absolutely incredible stuff from him.
  58. 2:27And then to add to it, he gained 8.9
  59. 2:308.19 strokes putt in and lost four on
  60. 2:34Sunday. Lost four strokes put in on
  61. 2:36Sunday. Still gained eight for the week.
  62. 2:39Still won by five. Just incredible stuff
  63. 2:42from Novak. Um he played from the
  64. 2:44fairway and when he did he was
  65. 2:47absolutely lethal and absolutely dialed
  66. 2:49in with those irons. So huge win from
  67. 2:53Andrew Novak. Um it was a great
  68. 2:55performance from Steven Fisk who and
  69. 2:58Chris Ventura. They come in to tie for
  70. 3:00second. They shoot 63 on Sunday. Great
  71. 3:02performances from them. A big move from
  72. 3:05Mackenzie Hughes in the FedEx Cup. He
  73. 3:08moves all the way up to 101st in the
  74. 3:10FedEx Cup standings. And I got to say
  75. 3:12with the RSM Classic coming up, um I
  76. 3:15know we have we have uh you know three
  77. 3:17more tournaments. We have this we have
  78. 3:19uh we'll go to Austin and then we're
  79. 3:22going to play the RSM for the final
  80. 3:24event of the fall. And I think that this
  81. 3:26week, this T4 finish for McKenzie Hughes
  82. 3:29gives him a great chance to get into the
  83. 3:31top 100 and keep his card for next year.
  84. 3:34Ben Griffin we haven't seen a whole lot
  85. 3:37of um haven't seen a whole lot of him
  86. 3:39this fall. The end of the season last
  87. 3:41year wasn't great and he showed up
  88. 3:45showed up in a big way. Got the putter
  89. 3:47going again. Gained over five strokes
  90. 3:49putting uh finishes in the top 10. Um in
  91. 3:53fact top five T4 for him. Eric von
  92. 3:56Royant same thing. Haven't seen much of
  93. 3:57him. Uh haven't seen many great
  94. 4:00performances from him but big T6 finish
  95. 4:02here. headed now this week to a golf
  96. 4:05course that he's won on at Alcardell.
  97. 4:07We'll get into that in a little bit. Um,
  98. 4:10so while I have this scorecard up, let's
  99. 4:12go over some of our results, some of the
  100. 4:14bets from last week. We actually got
  101. 4:16four rounds in this week, but uh, and I
  102. 4:19didn't have a grid for you. It's been,
  103. 4:21like I said, what a week. It's been a
  104. 4:23little crazy for me, so I I haven't had
  105. 4:26notebooks. I haven't had official grids.
  106. 4:28Uh, the work's still being done. and I
  107. 4:30just haven't had the time to really
  108. 4:32dress it up the way I like to. Uh the
  109. 4:35matchup we had was Kada Nakajima over
  110. 4:38Jordan Smith at plus 105. Jordan Smith
  111. 4:41played great. He finished tied 16th and
  112. 4:43beat Kada Nakajima by two uh with a 64
  113. 4:47on Sunday. So that was, you know, kind
  114. 4:50of a a crushing defeat in the only
  115. 4:53matchup that I offered last week. Um I
  116. 4:56am gonna just jump off of this. I I'll
  117. 4:59show myself here back on screen. Uh
  118. 5:02finishing positions, we had all top 20s
  119. 5:05again and we had some good results here.
  120. 5:07A couple good wins. Blades Brown top 20.
  121. 5:10He finished tied 19th which is good
  122. 5:12enough for a top 20. So that hits that
  123. 5:14was at plus 128. Cristian Bazidenhout
  124. 5:17also finished T19. We had him for a top
  125. 5:2020 plus 205. So that was very effective
  126. 5:25as well. Chan Kim and Kevin Roy. I liked
  127. 5:28them for top 20s and they missed the
  128. 5:30cut. Uh so we went 5050 on the finishing
  129. 5:33positions outrights. We took Ben James
  130. 5:37and Neil Shipley. They both finished
  131. 5:39tied 16th. So nice showings. Uh but it
  132. 5:42wasn't Andrew Novak and that was um you
  133. 5:46know unable to cash but nice to hit on
  134. 5:49the top 20s. So looking ahead to the
  135. 5:51worldwide technologies championship, we
  136. 5:54have, you know, I would say uh quite a
  137. 5:57few top 20s. I I've been finding a lot
  138. 6:02of success with them and the way that
  139. 6:04we've been going through and building
  140. 6:05these models, it's really showed a lot
  141. 6:07of value and I think the the value is
  142. 6:10really shown in the top 20 market. So
  143. 6:12we're going to put a little bigger
  144. 6:14emphasis on that. Um, I'm I've been
  145. 6:17getting frustrated with the matchups
  146. 6:18lately.
  147. 6:20I I've been much more effective with the
  148. 6:22finishing positions. So, we're going to
  149. 6:24lean into that a little more tonight.
  150. 6:25There are actually no matchups that I
  151. 6:28liked. Uh, so, but I have extra top 20
  152. 6:31finishing positions and a couple
  153. 6:32outrights that I think are really
  154. 6:34interesting and we're going to dive into
  155. 6:37all of that. Before we do, um, we have
  156. 6:41to take a look at the golf course, which
  157. 6:43I think is pretty interesting. So, I'm
  158. 6:45I'm going to go ahead and share my
  159. 6:47screen again here. Like I said, I don't
  160. 6:50have a notebook. Normally, I I like to
  161. 6:52summarize all of this data. Uh, and and
  162. 6:55I think that kind of gives us a a good
  163. 6:57idea of some notes to read through. I
  164. 6:59don't have that tonight, but these are
  165. 7:01the winners. This is just the
  166. 7:03spreadsheet. This is like the raw data
  167. 7:05that I have. And this is what the
  168. 7:08winners looked like entering the week.
  169. 7:09We also have what the winners did the
  170. 7:11week of. So Ben Griffin won this
  171. 7:13tournament last year at 29 under and he
  172. 7:16won by two. Austin Ecro won the year
  173. 7:19before at 24 under. He won by one. And
  174. 7:22Eric Vonroyan won at 27 under in a
  175. 7:27memorable finish. I believe he shot 29
  176. 7:29on the back nine, maybe 28. Uh but it
  177. 7:32was a 62 to close for him and he won by
  178. 7:35two. So, really impressive stuff from
  179. 7:37Eric Vonroyan. Now, the past couple of
  180. 7:39seasons, we haven't had any strokes gain
  181. 7:41data at this venue. Uh, but there were
  182. 7:44still a couple of things that I wanted
  183. 7:46to take a look at. That's why all this
  184. 7:47is blank because there's just no data.
  185. 7:50Um, but look at these guys making 30
  186. 7:53birdies. Um, really impressive. 27
  187. 7:56birdies and three Eagles for Vonroyan.
  188. 7:59And then uh Ben Griffin and um Austin
  189. 8:03Ecro made 30 birdies and they're making
  190. 8:06less than six bogeies. So really you
  191. 8:09really got to go low. Now this is a
  192. 8:14fascinating aspect right here. Look at
  193. 8:16the fairways these guys hit. 51 51 and
  194. 8:1952
  195. 8:22out of 54 fairways. That is remarkable.
  196. 8:25um you're not going to miss very many
  197. 8:28fairways and it almost almost eliminates
  198. 8:32driving. I I think there's a world where
  199. 8:34that really favors long shots and it
  200. 8:37favors distance.
  201. 8:39I I'm not leaning too heavy into the
  202. 8:42distance this week. I I do think it's
  203. 8:44something to pay attention to. I do
  204. 8:45think it's important. I think there are
  205. 8:48some other avenues where you can have a
  206. 8:49lot of success here. I I don't think
  207. 8:51distance is the most important thing.
  208. 8:54Um, but you can look at accuracy and
  209. 8:57throw it out the window because
  210. 8:58everybody is pounding fairways this
  211. 9:01week. Same with greens and regulation.
  212. 9:04You know, they're the Greens are over
  213. 9:058,000 square feet here um on the 7,400
  214. 9:08yard golf course. Everybody hit over 60
  215. 9:11greens. All three winners. 63 from Ben
  216. 9:14Griffin, 60 from Ecro, 62 from Eric
  217. 9:18Vonroyan. This is one of those places
  218. 9:20where you can take stroke scanned around
  219. 9:22the green and completely throw it out
  220. 9:25the window. You can just throw it right
  221. 9:27out the window. It doesn't mean
  222. 9:28anything. Uh and then when you see that
  223. 9:31number of greens of regulation, this is
  224. 9:32what it takes as far as putts. About 110
  225. 9:35putts, you know, 110 to 115 putts is
  226. 9:39going to get the job done when you're
  227. 9:40hitting 60 greens or more. Um it's at
  228. 9:43least going to get you into the mix. So
  229. 9:45that's pretty typical. Nothing really
  230. 9:48stands out there. This was just a there
  231. 9:51are a couple of really interesting
  232. 9:54statistics. This doesn't mean anything.
  233. 9:57Um, but all three winners finished the
  234. 10:00weekend with 6663.
  235. 10:04All three shot 66 in the third round.
  236. 10:06All three shot 63 in the final round. I
  237. 10:09said Eric Vonroy shot 62. He shot 63. So
  238. 10:13did Ben Griffin. So did Austin Ero. So,
  239. 10:17um I guess come Sunday you're going to
  240. 10:19have to shoot 63. That's just what it
  241. 10:21takes around here at El Cardonal. Um and
  242. 10:25this is of course a Tiger Woods venue.
  243. 10:28So, yeah, couple of couple of
  244. 10:30interesting things. Um I find it to be
  245. 10:32fascinating. Another anomaly here. Maybe
  246. 10:36all three winners were in a tie for
  247. 10:38fifth after round two. Exactly. Tie for
  248. 10:41fifth after round two. Just fascinating
  249. 10:44to me. Um, again, doesn't really mean
  250. 10:47anything. Maybe it's something to watch
  251. 10:49on Friday night. Uh, who's in that tie
  252. 10:52for fifth and that's probably going to
  253. 10:54be the guy to go 6663 over the weekend.
  254. 10:57Just an interesting tidbit. All right,
  255. 10:59let's take a look at what these guys
  256. 11:01looked like entering the week. Um, Ben
  257. 11:03Griffin was 12th in the world. Ecro was
  258. 11:0562nd in the world. Von Royan 193rd in
  259. 11:09the world. This was a really big
  260. 11:11comeback win for Von Royan. But um I
  261. 11:14would say they're all pretty solid
  262. 11:16players. Ben Griffin obviously last year
  263. 11:19was having an elite year. This was the
  264. 11:22week when he switched to a mallet putter
  265. 11:24and just kind of went crazy. Um but you
  266. 11:28know this is the these are not wild long
  267. 11:32shots. They're just um really good
  268. 11:35players. Pretty good drivers. Uh, all of
  269. 11:37them inside the top 81 in uh, strokes
  270. 11:41gained off the tee. All in the top 90 in
  271. 11:44driving distance. Again, it doesn't
  272. 11:46sound like a big deal. Top 90. Like, my
  273. 11:48goodness. This is why I I'm not using it
  274. 11:51as a reference point at all. Ben
  275. 11:55Griffin's not short by any means. You
  276. 11:57know that when you watch him play, but
  277. 11:59he's 73rd in driving distance last year
  278. 12:02coming in. It's a full season of uh you
  279. 12:05know, it's a full season of data. He
  280. 12:07hits it plenty far. He's just not the
  281. 12:09longest guy. Uh Austin Ecro, same thing.
  282. 12:12He's 88th in driving distance. He's long
  283. 12:14enough. That's all we're looking for
  284. 12:16here is long enough.
  285. 12:18I mentioned how driving accuracy just
  286. 12:21doesn't really mean anything. Um Ben
  287. 12:23Griffin was 105th, Von Royan was 131st,
  288. 12:27and Ecro was 19th. and you look at what
  289. 12:30they did for the week and it doesn't
  290. 12:31really make a huge difference.
  291. 12:33Everybody's hitting fairways this week.
  292. 12:35Um, so not a big deal. I I really don't
  293. 12:38think driving is much of a factor at
  294. 12:41all. While all these winners are decent
  295. 12:44drivers, I I just don't think it weighs
  296. 12:46into the model a single lick. Approach
  297. 12:50plays a different story. Ben Griffin was
  298. 12:5324th entering the week. Austin Ecro was
  299. 12:5627th and Von Royan was 95th which was
  300. 12:59one of his better statistical
  301. 13:02categories. So I do think iron play is
  302. 13:04an opportunity to really separate
  303. 13:06yourself kind of like we saw from Andrew
  304. 13:08Novak last week. Short game I mentioned
  305. 13:11it doesn't mean anything. Um it it lit
  306. 13:14it means nothing to me this week. You
  307. 13:16can out hit your short game. If you see
  308. 13:19a guy with a bad short game, don't be
  309. 13:22afraid. This is the week to utilize it.
  310. 13:25You're going to have to hit the ball
  311. 13:26well and you're going to have to putt
  312. 13:27well. But like we so often see,
  313. 13:30you know, what does putting matter? It
  314. 13:33matters a whole lot during the week. I'm
  315. 13:35not sure it means anything at all
  316. 13:37entering the week. So, we have some
  317. 13:39tactics, some techniques that we'll use
  318. 13:41to assess the putting, try to figure out
  319. 13:42who's going to putt well. Uh, but Ben
  320. 13:44Griffin was 18th and putted great. Um,
  321. 13:48Von Royan was 130th and Ekro was 132nd
  322. 13:51for the year coming into this
  323. 13:53tournament. So, and again, they all had
  324. 13:56very similar number of putts, hit very
  325. 13:58similar number of greens. It just
  326. 14:00doesn't doesn't really mean much. Uh,
  327. 14:03good T green players. 18th for Ben
  328. 14:05Griffin, 52nd for Ecro, 137th for Eric
  329. 14:09Vonroyan. Obviously, he um was just not
  330. 14:14playing great before coming in and
  331. 14:16striping it around this golf course.
  332. 14:19Proximities
  333. 14:21uh didn't really do much for me.
  334. 14:23Everything else is kind of the same
  335. 14:25story. We did see some pretty good
  336. 14:27recent form. Ben Griffin was coming off
  337. 14:29a second, tied 10th, tied 12th, tied
  338. 14:32ninth, tied 11th in his five previous
  339. 14:35starts. For Ecro, you had a couple of
  340. 14:37T46s, a tied 18th, and a tied sixth in
  341. 14:41his five previous starts. And even Von
  342. 14:44Royan, who again, he kind of stands out
  343. 14:46as the weaker player with all these
  344. 14:49previous stats. He finished tied 23rd in
  345. 14:51his previous start, tied 16th right
  346. 14:54before that, tied 30th right before
  347. 14:57that. So, he was having a decent fall
  348. 14:59and then to end the prior season, he
  349. 15:01missed a couple of cuts.
  350. 15:03Um, course history, Vonroyan obviously
  351. 15:06didn't have any. Uh, everybody else
  352. 15:09finished top 25. So Ben Griffin had a
  353. 15:12T-23 and a T-24. Ecro had a T-23 before
  354. 15:16their win here. So I I do think there's
  355. 15:19something to that. It's it's not the
  356. 15:21stickiest course. It's probably middle
  357. 15:22of the pack and quote unquote
  358. 15:25stickiness. Um but I I also am a little
  359. 15:29cautious with that because we've only
  360. 15:30had three events here. So I think
  361. 15:32there's a chance that course history
  362. 15:34starts to you know there's definitely a
  363. 15:37course type. Definitely a course type.
  364. 15:40You got to hit long approach shots
  365. 15:42close. Um, with big greens, big pass
  366. 15:45palum greens.
  367. 15:47That's kind of your key to success. So,
  368. 15:49we're going to spend a lot of the a lot
  369. 15:52of energy in the model trying to figure
  370. 15:55out who is going to play really well
  371. 15:57with their irons, uh, who's going to
  372. 15:59give themselves a lot of good looks for
  373. 16:01birdie and who has a good chance of
  374. 16:03having a spike putting week on these
  375. 16:05pass palum greens. All right, so let's
  376. 16:08get right into that. We'll we'll switch
  377. 16:10over here. I'll show you the model that
  378. 16:13uh that we've created and how we go
  379. 16:16about doing it. So, these are the
  380. 16:19players. This is kind of the total
  381. 16:21ranking. We'll walk through that in a
  382. 16:23little bit, but these are the metrics
  383. 16:24that I included. We have uh strokes
  384. 16:28approach over the last 24 rounds. It's
  385. 16:30weighted at 15%.
  386. 16:33Let's take a look at some of the leaders
  387. 16:34in that category. Oh, surprise surprise.
  388. 16:37There's Ben Goals. Chris Kirk second,
  389. 16:40Billy Horschel, Ryan Gerard, Trace Crow,
  390. 16:43uh you got Lucas Glover, Jackson Kovven,
  391. 16:46Ben James, Luke Clanton,
  392. 16:48and Tom Hogi is 10th in that category.
  393. 16:52There's Blades Brown, by the way, number
  394. 16:5411 in the approach category. Strokes
  395. 16:58game putting over the last 12 rounds.
  396. 17:00Again, that's a a a fairly small window
  397. 17:03that I like to use when it comes to
  398. 17:05putting. And there are more approach
  399. 17:08buckets and more putting buckets that
  400. 17:10are coming up in just a little bit in
  401. 17:12this model. Um, but here this is these
  402. 17:15are the best putters over the last 12
  403. 17:17rounds. Weighted at 10%. Sammy Valamaki,
  404. 17:20he came in tied second last year uh at
  405. 17:22this venue. Trace Crowe, Michael Kim,
  406. 17:25Vince Whley, AJ Uert, Adrienne Dumonte
  407. 17:28De Chesar, uh Alvo Ortiz, Garrick Higgo,
  408. 17:32there's Blades Brown again, and Sheamus
  409. 17:34Power, and there's Luke Clinton at
  410. 17:36number 11. Very interesting. Tita Green,
  411. 17:41you know, I did uh 10% last 36. So, what
  412. 17:45I did my adjustment for this week, I
  413. 17:48narrowed the Teta Green bucket a little
  414. 17:51bit. And because short game is so
  415. 17:55minuscule to me, I went to 10%. I
  416. 17:58normally do 15 or 20% for the TD Green
  417. 18:01play. Um I I took down the importance of
  418. 18:04that. I took down the weight of that a
  419. 18:06little bit. Uh just because I I think
  420. 18:10it's better you're better off looking at
  421. 18:11approach and off the tea. Um you know,
  422. 18:14ball striking is probably a better view.
  423. 18:17But tea green is so generally important.
  424. 18:19It does give us a good idea of who the
  425. 18:20best players are. So I included it to a
  426. 18:23smaller degree in a smaller window than
  427. 18:26normal. But you got Chris Ventura,
  428. 18:28Blades Brown, Jackson Kovven, Ben James,
  429. 18:32Ryan Gerard. Th right there, those are
  430. 18:34like your three favorites. Kven, James,
  431. 18:37Gerard, no surprise. You got Ben Kohl's,
  432. 18:40Austin Hit, who just won the Kornferryy
  433. 18:42Tour finals. Um he's their number seven
  434. 18:46in the TD Green performance. Jackson
  435. 18:48Suber, Marco Penge. He's going to be
  436. 18:52probably fairly popular this week. Um,
  437. 18:56he seems to fit the mold to a lot of
  438. 18:59people. I'm I'm not necessarily in a
  439. 19:01place where I trust him. Kevin Roy,
  440. 19:04number 10. I trusted him last week.
  441. 19:06Kevin Roy kind of let me down, but he
  442. 19:08does model out pretty well. I did
  443. 19:11strokes gain total over the last 24
  444. 19:13rounds um that at 15%. So this is maybe
  445. 19:18a little lower than normal but not much.
  446. 19:20Um pretty, you know, I I like to get a
  447. 19:22total idea who are the best players in
  448. 19:25this field. I did narrow this window.
  449. 19:29Okay, so I wanted some recent form. If
  450. 19:31you look at what we just went over with
  451. 19:33those winners, they all had they they
  452. 19:36were having a pretty good fall. You
  453. 19:37know, their last three events leading in
  454. 19:39were was pretty good for all three of
  455. 19:42them. So, I wanted to add some weight to
  456. 19:45recent form. And the best way to do that
  457. 19:47is strokes gain total, but I typically
  458. 19:50get a wide range of strokes gain total.
  459. 19:53And the adjustment I made in this was
  460. 19:56narrowing that. So, let's go 24 rounds.
  461. 19:59Okay, we're talking about the last six
  462. 20:01tournaments or so. Um, I'd be even
  463. 20:04comfortable going 12. I I think narrower
  464. 20:06is just better, but in this instance, I
  465. 20:09I found this to be the best at 24 last
  466. 20:1124 rounds. So, you got Ben James, Austin
  467. 20:15hit Blades Brown, Jackson Kovven, Alvaro
  468. 20:19Ortiz, Ben Kohl's, Ryan Gerard, Sheamus
  469. 20:22Power, Chris Kirk, and Neil Shipley.
  470. 20:26There's Marco Penge at number 11, and
  471. 20:28Michael Kim number 12. Uh, so pretty
  472. 20:32good there. We got a couple of um these
  473. 20:36are what's called distribution buckets.
  474. 20:38So, how often how often does someone
  475. 20:41gain two or more strokes approaching the
  476. 20:43green? This one I went with a really
  477. 20:45wide range. Did over the last hundred
  478. 20:47rounds, but it has a pretty small weight
  479. 20:50of just 5%. This is guys like Ben
  480. 20:53Kohl's, Ameliano Glo, uh Chris Kirk, Ben
  481. 20:57James, Zack Blair, Zack Bosshu, which by
  482. 21:00the way, um Ryan says in the comment,
  483. 21:03"I'm really, really high on Zack Bosshi
  484. 21:06this week." Me too, Ryan. I'm right
  485. 21:08there with you. I think Zack Bshu is set
  486. 21:10for a great week. This is a reason why
  487. 21:12this is an indicator that he's a very
  488. 21:15consistent iron player. you know, 17% of
  489. 21:19the time he's going to gain two or more
  490. 21:22strokes approaching the green with just
  491. 21:24his iron play goes a long way. You know,
  492. 21:27that's I mean, it's less than once every
  493. 21:29tournament, but it is relative to this
  494. 21:34field, it's sixth best in the field.
  495. 21:36Even Ben Kohl's and Ameliano Grio who
  496. 21:38are tied for first, Chris Kirk too, they
  497. 21:42do it less than once a tournament as
  498. 21:43well at just 21%. So, Zack Bshu is right
  499. 21:46there. Ryan Gerard, Lucas Glover, Paul
  500. 21:49Peterson, those guys are right there.
  501. 21:51Billy Horchel's number 10 as well at a
  502. 21:5415% clip. Now, when you go to three or
  503. 21:58more strokes,
  504. 22:00uh, same deal. Last 100, 5% weight. Now,
  505. 22:04you see this just doesn't happen very
  506. 22:06often. So, it's 8% for Luke Glover, who
  507. 22:09Lucas Glover who leads the way. Ben
  508. 22:11James at 6.1%.
  509. 22:14Uh Ryan Gerard, Ameliano Greo, Zack
  510. 22:17Blair. These guys are all right in that
  511. 22:19six six% range. David Skins, there's
  512. 22:23Sammy Valamaki again. Uh Ben Kohl's, no
  513. 22:26surprise. Carl Phillips,
  514. 22:29uh Keith Mitchell, they're all in that
  515. 22:315% range. You know, Johnny Kefir, Mark
  516. 22:34Hubard, they do it from time to time
  517. 22:37upon occasion. Um I I did a very similar
  518. 22:41thing with putting. I wanted to include
  519. 22:42some putting distribution. So this is
  520. 22:45last 100 rounds weighed at five. How
  521. 22:48often do guys gain two or more strokes
  522. 22:49putting
  523. 22:51Alvaro Ortiz leads the way. You got to
  524. 22:55be careful with that. Um not a lot of
  525. 22:57his rounds are PGA Tour rounds, but
  526. 23:01wonderful player nonetheless. Has played
  527. 23:03in the Masters. Michael Kim is number
  528. 23:06two and you got Rasmus Hoygard, AJ Ur,
  529. 23:09McKenzie Hughes, Bo Hustler, Peter
  530. 23:12Malnady, Sammy Valamaki, Harry Hall.
  531. 23:16These are kind of usual suspects. Maybe
  532. 23:17Sammy Valamaki is is not a guy I would
  533. 23:21expect to be there, but everybody else
  534. 23:22on this list is a great putter.
  535. 23:26Rasmosygard probably wouldn't expect him
  536. 23:28to be there either, and he's a number
  537. 23:29three 20% of the time. Now, how often do
  538. 23:33you go nuts, gain three or more strokes
  539. 23:35putting? This happens less often again.
  540. 23:38Michael Kim, top of the list. In his
  541. 23:41last 100 rounds, he does it 11% of the
  542. 23:44time. Gains three or more strokes in a
  543. 23:47round. Really impressive. Ryan Gerard's
  544. 23:49number two. That's impressive. There's
  545. 23:51Blades Brown at number five. My boy CBZ
  546. 23:55at number seven. Denny McCarthy, no
  547. 23:57surprise, he's at eight. Sammy Valamaki
  548. 24:00again there at number six.
  549. 24:03Um, all right. Then I got into
  550. 24:05opportunities. This is how often do you
  551. 24:07hit it inside of 15 feet?
  552. 24:1036 last 36 rounds weighted at at a five.
  553. 24:15Um, you got Ben Martin, John Perry.
  554. 24:18These are some really good iron players.
  555. 24:19Lucas Glover, Tom Hogy, Chris Kirk. It's
  556. 24:23different than strokes gained approach.
  557. 24:26Um, it doesn't care what your bad shot
  558. 24:28is. You know, it it doesn't matter if
  559. 24:31you hit it into the water. It doesn't
  560. 24:33matter if you shank it into the woods.
  561. 24:36It's just counting how often do you hit
  562. 24:38it inside of 15 ft. So, this is a this
  563. 24:41is a pretty good metric. I like the
  564. 24:43opportunities metric. Um, I like it as
  565. 24:45long as you have some strokes gain
  566. 24:48approach metrics in there as well, which
  567. 24:51we do with approach distribution and
  568. 24:54strokes gain approach in general.
  569. 24:57Um, strokes gain, pass palum. We have
  570. 25:00pass palum greens. Who are the best
  571. 25:02players? I did last 50 rounds for this
  572. 25:05and I weighed as at a 10. I think this
  573. 25:07is actually pretty important. Who are
  574. 25:09the best putters on this surface? We
  575. 25:12combine that with the guys who have been
  576. 25:14the best putters over the last 12 rounds
  577. 25:16and now we have a way to figure out who
  578. 25:19has the best chance of putting the best
  579. 25:21this one week. Sheamus Power top of the
  580. 25:24list. Love to see that. Ben Griffin
  581. 25:27number two.
  582. 25:29John Vanderland. Aldrick Pocket.
  583. 25:33I I don't I don't like the looks of
  584. 25:35Pocket other than this. Trace Crow. I'm
  585. 25:38very interested in Trace Crow. Davis
  586. 25:41Riley, Ben Silverman, he has my
  587. 25:43attention. Marty Doe, he's
  588. 25:47lingering around.
  589. 25:49You know, he never really catches my
  590. 25:50eye. He's lingering around. He He won't
  591. 25:53seem to go away. Pearson Cudy played
  592. 25:55great last week. Uh, also on past Palum
  593. 25:58Greens. Neil Shipley played pretty well.
  594. 26:00There's Sammy Valamaki again. There's
  595. 26:02Cristian Baziden again. So, you see
  596. 26:05there's some usual suspects.
  597. 26:08Um, I did strokes gain easy easy golf
  598. 26:11courses. Uh, last 36 rounds
  599. 26:15on easy golf courses. Um, weighted as a
  600. 26:19five. We don't need to go through these
  601. 26:21names, but Blades Brown top of the list.
  602. 26:24Um, Sheamus Power does pretty well.
  603. 26:26Keith Mitchell does pretty well. Um, but
  604. 26:28I didn't put a huge weight on that. I'm
  605. 26:31much more inclined to look at El
  606. 26:33Cardinell. So, this is the best course
  607. 26:35history here. I did the last 36 rounds.
  608. 26:38That's basically just going to
  609. 26:39incorporate every every round that has
  610. 26:42taken place here. I weighed this to a
  611. 26:4410. You got Sammy Valamaki, top of the
  612. 26:47list. Nick Dunlap, remember I said
  613. 26:50everybody hits fairways here. Uh could
  614. 26:53be a good thing for Nick Dunlap. Garrick
  615. 26:55Higgo, who by the way we have uh right
  616. 27:00here 17 Kuga. Love long shots. Higo,
  617. 27:03Lowour, Hustler, Ventura. This week we
  618. 27:06have seen some of those names. Now
  619. 27:08Garrick Higgo popping up here as well as
  620. 27:11a great course history guy. Jackson
  621. 27:13Suber, Patrick Rogers, Ben Griffin, no
  622. 27:18surprise uh as a winner here. Matt
  623. 27:21Cooer, Justin Lowour, Dylan Woo, Austin
  624. 27:24Ecro, there's Hustler, uh who you
  625. 27:27mentioned, he's number 11 on this list.
  626. 27:30Andrew Putnham has my interest as well,
  627. 27:32number 12. Um, you got Max Grazerman,
  628. 27:37there's Ben Silverman 15th, Taylor
  629. 27:39Pendrth. So, that's um that's how I went
  630. 27:42through and created this model. And then
  631. 27:45let's just look quickly up. So, this is
  632. 27:47the overall score. Uh, it's kind of like
  633. 27:50a leaderboard or power rankings. And the
  634. 27:53thing that I really like about this is,
  635. 27:56you know, we go through what the golf
  636. 27:58course looks like, right? What what is
  637. 28:00important on the golf course. We make
  638. 28:03adjustments to our base model. The base
  639. 28:05model is we got to have some approach in
  640. 28:07there. We got to have recent putting. We
  641. 28:09got to have recent form. We use strokes
  642. 28:11gain total for that. TA green such a
  643. 28:14great predictor. That's always going to
  644. 28:16be in there. Um course history is going
  645. 28:18to be in there all the time. And then
  646. 28:20are there little adjustments? Are we
  647. 28:22looking for spike putters? We looking
  648. 28:23for a specific surface? Uh spike
  649. 28:26approach players? All those kind of
  650. 28:28things we can weave into the model as
  651. 28:30well. and we come out with the total
  652. 28:32score. And here's the cool thing about
  653. 28:35the total score is right next to it I
  654. 28:38have um their salary. And this is their
  655. 28:42DraftKing salary. So, it's a great tool
  656. 28:44for making lineups. It's actually what
  657. 28:46this is built for. But I I think it also
  658. 28:49really, you know, it can point you in
  659. 28:52the right direction for value in the
  660. 28:54odds boards as well. Um, like this is
  661. 28:58not the same list as the the favorites.
  662. 29:02Of course, Ben James is number one.
  663. 29:04Okay, Blades Brown's number two. Those
  664. 29:06guys are, you know, they're heavy
  665. 29:09hitters in this field. Uh, they're
  666. 29:11expected to do well. They're both in the
  667. 29:13$9,000 range on DraftKings. There's a
  668. 29:16couple of 10K guys. Ryan Gerard, number
  669. 29:18nine in the model. He's at 10,200.
  670. 29:21Um Jackson Kovven at 10,400 the most
  671. 29:25expensive player he's number three in
  672. 29:28the model. Um so you know it would tell
  673. 29:31you Blades Brown may be a better value
  674. 29:33this week than Jackson Kovven maybe. But
  675. 29:37when you're dealing with margins this
  676. 29:40close
  677. 29:41I'm going to still go through and do
  678. 29:43normal analysis. I'm not really
  679. 29:46concerned that Blades Brown is two,
  680. 29:48Jackson Quin is three. That means their
  681. 29:50model likes them. That's all it is. And
  682. 29:52it's no surprise to see these favorites
  683. 29:54in here. But what was really interesting
  684. 29:57to me is, okay, Sheamus Powers number
  685. 29:59four, he's 8,100. Sammy Valamaki number
  686. 30:03five, he's 7700. Christian Bazidenho
  687. 30:067,900 is number six. That has my
  688. 30:10attention. I'm really going to pay
  689. 30:11attention and look into that. Alvaro
  690. 30:14Ortiz is number eight in the model. He's
  691. 30:16at 7,200.
  692. 30:19Again, I've double checked that. I'm I'm
  693. 30:21not overly interested in it at that
  694. 30:23point. Um, yes, he can play. Doesn't
  695. 30:26really have my attention.
  696. 30:29There's Gerard at he's top 10 in the
  697. 30:31model. Obviously,
  698. 30:33right there belongs there. Ben Griffin
  699. 30:36at 11. You got your usual suspects. Ben
  700. 30:39Kohl's always models out well. 12th in
  701. 30:42the model is actually disappointing for
  702. 30:44Ben Kohl's, but I I still think you can
  703. 30:46ride that horse. I I wouldn't bet him to
  704. 30:48win, but he fits the bill. Trace Crow at
  705. 30:52number 13 here really has my attention.
  706. 30:56I am a huge fan of what Trace Crow has
  707. 30:59going on. And at 7,700, I I you know,
  708. 31:02there's a lot of good value on him.
  709. 31:04There's good value on him all over the
  710. 31:06markets. So, I like Trace Crow. Harry
  711. 31:08Hall at 17 catches my attention. Ben
  712. 31:11Silverman at 16. He's a $6,000 guy.
  713. 31:15Okay, he's really going to catch my
  714. 31:16attention. Love what I'm seeing out of
  715. 31:19Ben Silverman. We'll talk about him in a
  716. 31:20little bit. Um Luke Clanton at 7400,
  717. 31:27number 20 in the model. We got to talk
  718. 31:30about him because I think this could be
  719. 31:32a smash spot for him. Really excited
  720. 31:35about that one. Um, so as I do this, you
  721. 31:38know, I I I look down to like uh Neil
  722. 31:41Shipley.
  723. 31:43Then if you can hear that, I apologize.
  724. 31:47Sounds like a smoke alarm. I think it's
  725. 31:48my neighbors.
  726. 31:51I don't think that's going on in my
  727. 31:52house. Hopefully everything's okay over
  728. 31:55there. Anyway, I digress. Neil Shipley,
  729. 31:59number 25 in the model. Um, really good
  730. 32:03value on him. Zack Bosshu 26 in the
  731. 32:06model. Uh Ryan, I really like him, too.
  732. 32:10Um let's see. Mackenzie Hughes played
  733. 32:12great last week. He's there at number
  734. 32:1429. Zack Blair's at 28. This isn't the
  735. 32:17spot for him. I don't like this golf
  736. 32:20course for him. I didn't like last
  737. 32:21week's golf course for him either. This
  738. 32:23just isn't the spot for him. So, you
  739. 32:25know, that's basically what the model
  740. 32:27look. Look, here's Keith Mitchell at 33.
  741. 32:29He's at 9600. That's kind of
  742. 32:31questionable value. the model's okay on
  743. 32:34him. I I think his advantage kind of
  744. 32:37gets taken away here. Uh but you got a
  745. 32:40Hayden Springer at 6,900 or Justin
  746. 32:42Lowour at 6,800. They're much more
  747. 32:45attractive than Keith Mitchell at 96 and
  748. 32:48they're they're rated in the model
  749. 32:50pretty close together. Um so that that's
  750. 32:53basically what we're looking at here. Um
  751. 32:55but I want to get through and pick some
  752. 32:57of these guys out. Look,
  753. 33:00Ben James, Blades Brown, Jackson Kovven.
  754. 33:03Uh, these are the top three guys in the
  755. 33:07model. I'm fine with all of them. You
  756. 33:10want to You have a good feeling on any
  757. 33:12of them in and outright. Uh, I prefer
  758. 33:16Ben James and Jackson Quinn as winners
  759. 33:19uh over Blades Brown. Blades Brown's in
  760. 33:22a tough place with odds, but I think
  761. 33:25he's a great value in DFS.
  762. 33:27You know, I don't I don't like the top
  763. 33:2920 market for Blades Brown. I don't like
  764. 33:32the outright market for Blades Brown
  765. 33:34either, but he's very solid player. I
  766. 33:37think the best place to play him is in
  767. 33:38DFS, and he he would make sense to me
  768. 33:41there, depending on ownership, of
  769. 33:44course. Um, but there's a lot of other
  770. 33:47value here. So, we're going to get into
  771. 33:48it. Again, I don't have an official card
  772. 33:51here, but we're going to go through and
  773. 33:52look at some of these profiles because a
  774. 33:54lot of these are really useful. I want
  775. 33:58to start with outrights, and I'm going
  776. 34:00to go right to Luke Clanton. Okay, Luke
  777. 34:04Clanton is at 69 to1, 7,400 on
  778. 34:09DraftKings. Okay, now I want to take a
  779. 34:13look at the overview for him first. I
  780. 34:17love this page right here. This is like
  781. 34:18the Madden rating. So, he's pretty long
  782. 34:21off the tee, decently accurate, hits a
  783. 34:24lot of greens.
  784. 34:27Maybe strokes gained off the tea. He
  785. 34:29struggles, right? He's only a 37 there,
  786. 34:31which is peculiar given these distance
  787. 34:34and accuracy are much better. That means
  788. 34:36he's taken penalty shots.
  789. 34:39Not really a factor this week. So, this
  790. 34:42is a red mark. This is a bad mark that
  791. 34:44I'm not worried about at all. stroke
  792. 34:46game approach. I'm very worried about
  793. 34:48that. It's his best category, his best
  794. 34:50area, an 83. We'll call him the Madden
  795. 34:54rankings. He's an 83 in approach play
  796. 34:57around the green. That's his worst
  797. 34:59category.
  798. 35:01He could hit 65 greens this week for all
  799. 35:04I know. Um could easily hit over 60
  800. 35:07greens, which means he's only going to
  801. 35:09miss 12, which means I'm not worried
  802. 35:11about his short game. putting. I'm very
  803. 35:15interested in putting. Don't necessarily
  804. 35:18care about year-long putting statistics.
  805. 35:21Uh I care about recent ones. So, he's a
  806. 35:2427 in putting. It looks like a weakness.
  807. 35:27It's something we got to investigate
  808. 35:28further. He's fine. TA Green kind of get
  809. 35:32the total aspect here. He can make
  810. 35:34birdies um kind of average in that
  811. 35:37category. But the strengths are approach
  812. 35:39play distance. It's kind of the
  813. 35:42strength. Green's a regulation. These
  814. 35:44are the strengths which I like. I I want
  815. 35:47those things this week. The weaknesses
  816. 35:49around the green I do not care about and
  817. 35:52putting I do care about. So that's what
  818. 35:55we got to take a deeper look at. So now
  819. 35:58let's go over here to results
  820. 36:00and see how Mr. Clanton has been
  821. 36:03playing. T-29 last week in Mexico, T11
  822. 36:08in Bermuda, T7 in Utah, and he did miss
  823. 36:13the cut at the Builtmore, but three
  824. 36:15really good starts in the fall. And his
  825. 36:18approach play has been good at times.
  826. 36:22There's at least been a spike. I mean,
  827. 36:24in Utah, he gained over eight strokes
  828. 36:26approaching the green. Had a good week
  829. 36:28in Bermuda as well. Wasn't great last
  830. 36:31week. But here's the thing. This is why
  831. 36:34Luke Clanton is on my outright card.
  832. 36:37Last three events putting, he's gained
  833. 36:39over two and a half strokes. Um, and he
  834. 36:42putted well, gained three and a half
  835. 36:44strokes at the Rocket Classic as well.
  836. 36:47So, um, but that was such a long time
  837. 36:49ago, but really this fall he's played
  838. 36:52four events and he's gained over two and
  839. 36:54a half strokes in three of them. So,
  840. 36:56this is a guy that is taking one of the
  841. 36:58weaknesses and it's trending in the
  842. 37:01right direction in a big way. Another
  843. 37:03weakness is irrelevant and the strengths
  844. 37:07are looking great. Everything looks
  845. 37:10really strong to me. Take a look at his
  846. 37:13course history. He's only played here
  847. 37:14once. It was last year. He finished tied
  848. 37:1746th. Um, I'm I'm fine with that. I'd
  849. 37:21like that to be a little better, but I'm
  850. 37:23at at 69 to1. I'm fine with it. Uh, so I
  851. 37:28love what we're seeing out of Luke
  852. 37:30Clanton. I I think he's a very smart
  853. 37:32outright, you know, very worth the risk,
  854. 37:35I should say, when it comes to an
  855. 37:37outright market.
  856. 37:40Harry Hall is next. Uh, he's at 31 to1,
  857. 37:44which is kind of in the range we've seen
  858. 37:46a lot of winners lately. Um, I I like
  859. 37:48this I I like this mark. I like this
  860. 37:51number. Uh, so we're getting taking a
  861. 37:54look at the overview here. We'll go into
  862. 37:57the same category.
  863. 37:59Distance is fine with Harry Hall. This
  864. 38:02may be a concern. He struggles with
  865. 38:04greens of regulation. Um, struggles with
  866. 38:07accuracy. I'm not worried about approach
  867. 38:10plays above average. His short game's a
  868. 38:13strength and I don't really care.
  869. 38:15Although maybe it's more valuable for
  870. 38:17him because he misses greens. But I
  871. 38:18think this green and regulation number
  872. 38:20is going to go way up because the greens
  873. 38:22are huge here. But we got to look at his
  874. 38:24approach play cuz it's average. He
  875. 38:26misses a lot of greens.
  876. 38:29Um but his putting is a strength as well
  877. 38:31which is which is a good thing.
  878. 38:33Everything else is pretty much above
  879. 38:35average. Driving accuracy is below
  880. 38:37average. Greens of regulation below
  881. 38:39average. Strokes gain off the tea below
  882. 38:42average for Harry Hall. Huge fairways.
  883. 38:45Not worried about the driving accuracy.
  884. 38:47Huge greens. Not worried about the
  885. 38:50greens in regulation. Great short game.
  886. 38:52Great putting in above average approach.
  887. 38:55This works for me. Let's look at what
  888. 38:58he's done recently. Okay, remember
  889. 39:01average approach play. Yet he's gained
  890. 39:05strokes approaching the green a lot
  891. 39:08since the Windom Championship.
  892. 39:11One, two, three, four, five, six, seven
  893. 39:15straight events. Harry Hall's gain
  894. 39:18strokes approaching the green. Yes, some
  895. 39:20of them, three of them were on the U DP
  896. 39:24World Tour, but you got a T-23 last week
  897. 39:27in Mexico, T13 in Utah. Uh, European
  898. 39:31Masters, he finished third. There's some
  899. 39:34really good starts here for Harry Hall.
  900. 39:37And as you already know, he's a great
  901. 39:40putter as well. Gained five and a half
  902. 39:42strokes last week. Uh basically gained
  903. 39:46strokes putting very frequently. Maybe
  904. 39:49had a couple of difficult stretches uh
  905. 39:52in Europe, but for the most part, he's a
  906. 39:55great putter and is capable of picking
  907. 39:58up five, six, seven strokes putting for
  908. 40:00a week. So really like what I'm seeing
  909. 40:02out of Harry Hall and I think he it
  910. 40:04makes him a outright candidate because
  911. 40:09he has a lot of he has spike
  912. 40:10capabilities with iron play and spike
  913. 40:13capabilities with putting. I I think it
  914. 40:16really works. Let's just check his
  915. 40:18course history. Um so this Ed elk he has
  916. 40:21a T14 in 2024, missed the cut in 2023.
  917. 40:27Um, but really strong performance the
  918. 40:29last time he played. Uh, so yep. Love
  919. 40:33what I'm seeing out of Harry Hall. So I
  920. 40:35I like Clanton and I like Hall as
  921. 40:38outright
  922. 40:40top 20s. Uh, I like Luke Clanton as
  923. 40:43well. He's at plus 220. So I have
  924. 40:46Clanton in two places because I I do
  925. 40:49think there's a really strong
  926. 40:50possibility that he plays well and is
  927. 40:53not ready to win. I still at at that
  928. 40:56number at 69 to1 I think it's worth
  929. 40:59taking a shot. It's worth him getting
  930. 41:01onto the grid. Um but um I also I think
  931. 41:07there's good reason to include him in in
  932. 41:09the top 20 market especially at plus
  933. 41:11220. So we got Luke figured out. Big fan
  934. 41:16of him this week. Let's take a look at
  935. 41:19Ben Silverman.
  936. 41:22All right. Ben Silverman rated out
  937. 41:24pretty well in our model as well. Uh
  938. 41:27where was he exactly? He was somewhere
  939. 41:29around the 17 mark.
  940. 41:3416. Ben Silverman was 16th. So let's
  941. 41:37look at the overview for him. Driving
  942. 41:41distance is a weakness. Okay. I don't
  943. 41:44necessarily like that. Very accurate. I
  944. 41:47don't care. Greens of regulation very
  945. 41:49good. Um, it will be this week as well.
  946. 41:53Everything else is above average for
  947. 41:54him. Putting is a strength and and like
  948. 41:58I said, everything else above average.
  949. 42:00So, the big weakness for Ben Silverman
  950. 42:02is distance. I don't think that's that
  951. 42:05big of a deal. Let's take a look at his
  952. 42:07results. See what we get this week. Um,
  953. 42:10see what we have coming in here. Vidanta
  954. 42:13World big golf course, wide fairways. He
  955. 42:16averaged 300 yards off the tea, finished
  956. 42:18tied 19th. Bermuda, small golf course.
  957. 42:22Uh, distance definitely not a factor
  958. 42:24there. He finished tied third. Utah
  959. 42:27missed the cut. Builtmore tied 43rd. So,
  960. 42:30it's been a solid fall for Ben
  961. 42:32Silverman. And I really like what I'm
  962. 42:34seeing with his approach play. Uh, gain
  963. 42:37he's gained over three strokes
  964. 42:38approaching the green in three of his
  965. 42:41last four starts, which is all of the
  966. 42:43fall events. And in Bermuda, he picked
  967. 42:46up six strokes approaching the green.
  968. 42:48But even on a bigger golf course like
  969. 42:50last week at Vidanta World, um he's
  970. 42:53still able to pick up three strokes.
  971. 42:55Now, the weakness for him would be the
  972. 42:57putting. Uh it just hasn't been great
  973. 42:59this fall and and he's still able to put
  974. 43:02up a top five finish while losing
  975. 43:04strokes putting. I think that's a really
  976. 43:06good sign and it it gives me hope that
  977. 43:10Ben Silverman could potentially pop. You
  978. 43:13know, maybe on on second thought, maybe
  979. 43:15at 92 to1, he should have been uh an
  980. 43:18outright card for me, but I got him here
  981. 43:20at plus 260 for a top 20. Uh and I
  982. 43:25believe he's played pretty well here,
  983. 43:26too. Yes, one start at El Cardinal T-21.
  984. 43:31That was last year, 2025. So, um I think
  985. 43:35the golf course can work for him as
  986. 43:37well.
  987. 43:39Let's move on to one of my favorites.
  988. 43:43One of the favorites in the model. This
  989. 43:45is Trace Crow. Trace Crow is 58 to1 to
  990. 43:49win. Uh but I like him in the top 20
  991. 43:53market at plus 200. Um very good at just
  992. 43:57about everything for Trace Crow. Uh he's
  993. 44:01long. He's
  994. 44:04below average in accuracy. Again, don't
  995. 44:06care about that. hits a lot of greens.
  996. 44:10Um, a good 80 approach player. Very
  997. 44:13good. Terrible short game. Biggest
  998. 44:16weakness. Again, like I said, I don't
  999. 44:18care about that one lick. Uh, very good
  1000. 44:21putter,
  1001. 44:22very good at everything else. And look
  1002. 44:24at this. He's in the 100th percentile
  1003. 44:26and birdie or better percentage.
  1004. 44:28I mean, I didn't really factor that into
  1005. 44:30the model and I don't think it's really
  1006. 44:34worth doing, which is a story for a
  1007. 44:37different day. But I don't hate seeing
  1008. 44:39that. I I like seeing a guy that makes a
  1009. 44:41lot of birdies. Um, and so that's a nice
  1010. 44:44thing to check off the list. Let's see
  1011. 44:46how old Trace Crow has been playing this
  1012. 44:48fall. Uh, Asheville T24,
  1013. 44:52Utah T3, Bermuda T34, Vidantto World
  1014. 44:56last week T11. Look at the approach
  1015. 44:59play. Gained 10 strokes approaching the
  1016. 45:01green in Utah. Picked up another five
  1017. 45:04last week. gained strokes in every
  1018. 45:06single event. Putting has also been
  1019. 45:09sensational. Uh, seven strokes putting
  1020. 45:12last week, five the week before that in
  1021. 45:14Bermuda, gained strokes putting every
  1022. 45:17single week this fall. Uh, these metrics
  1023. 45:20look great for Trace Crow. And he has
  1024. 45:24one start here, which was two years ago,
  1025. 45:272024, and he withdrew. Um,
  1026. 45:31don't love that. Don't love that. But it
  1027. 45:34is a factor in the model and it's a it's
  1028. 45:38actually a pretty big factor in the
  1029. 45:39model and he still rates out pretty well
  1030. 45:42where uh Trace Crow is number 13 in my
  1031. 45:47model which includes that course
  1032. 45:49history. So I I really like what I'm
  1033. 45:51seeing out of Trace Crow top 20 for him
  1034. 45:53plus 200.
  1035. 45:55All right, let's move on to Michael Kim.
  1036. 45:59This one just feels he's at plus 148 for
  1037. 46:02a top 20. I'm pretty high on Michael Kim
  1038. 46:06as well. We'll take a look at the
  1039. 46:08overview here just to get a general
  1040. 46:10sense. Things he struggles in accuracy,
  1041. 46:14greens of regulation, strokes gained off
  1042. 46:16the tea. Those things are all going to
  1043. 46:18get a bump this week. What's interesting
  1044. 46:21is the greens of regulation are very
  1045. 46:23low. Strokes gain approach much better.
  1046. 46:26It's a signal to me that he's rather
  1047. 46:28aggressive and he likes to hit it close.
  1048. 46:31Um, generally that's very similar to
  1049. 46:33Harry Hall. They're aggressive iron
  1050. 46:35players. Um, everything else pretty much
  1051. 46:38average except putting which is very
  1052. 46:40good for Michael Kim. Uh, he's a 92 in
  1053. 46:44the Madden ratings. So, I love to see
  1054. 46:46that. Let's take a look at the results
  1055. 46:48page for Michael Kim. T7 at the Bay
  1056. 46:52Current and a T7 at the uh FedEx Open
  1057. 46:56Def France and he also played in
  1058. 46:58Asheville where he finished tied 24th.
  1059. 47:00So, three starts in the fall, two on the
  1060. 47:03PGA Tour, all three top 25 finishes and
  1061. 47:07he's available at plus 148 for a top 20.
  1062. 47:10I I think ultimately Michael Kim is just
  1063. 47:12a very talented player and a very good
  1064. 47:17player in this field who's
  1065. 47:20not quite priced there. 38 to1. I mean,
  1066. 47:23I guess that's probably pretty fair.
  1067. 47:25It's probably pretty darn fair. Uh but I
  1068. 47:28like it for a top 20 quite a bit.
  1069. 47:31Putting has been great. Um picked up
  1070. 47:33over three strokes putting in all of
  1071. 47:35these events in the fall. that picked up
  1072. 47:38strokes approaching the green in two out
  1073. 47:40of the three so far this fall. Bay
  1074. 47:43current being the only one where he lost
  1075. 47:45over in Japan. I think we see a better
  1076. 47:47performance from him this week in
  1077. 47:49Mexico. So, I like Michael Kim there.
  1078. 47:52Last but not least is Cristian
  1079. 47:54Bazidenhout.
  1080. 47:55Uh CBZ, I want to go back to the well
  1081. 47:58here. Um, last week CBZ really rated out
  1082. 48:03well in long on long golf courses, which
  1083. 48:07caught my attention cuz he's a short
  1084. 48:10hitter as you're going to see here.
  1085. 48:12Driving distance, he's a 34, right? He's
  1086. 48:15a very accurate, but he loses strokes
  1087. 48:17off the tea. But I know that he can
  1088. 48:20handle long golf courses, so I'm I'm not
  1089. 48:22overly concerned about that. Then look
  1090. 48:25at everything else. Strokes gain
  1091. 48:27approach 85 around the green I don't
  1092. 48:29care but 96 putting in 93 ta green 76
  1093. 48:34total 88 birdie or better percentage 78
  1094. 48:38you don't think of Christian Bazidenhow
  1095. 48:40as a birdie maker but he is so I see a
  1096. 48:44lot of these ratings just in general
  1097. 48:46being very high he's a very good player
  1098. 48:49with essentially one weakness and it's
  1099. 48:52distance but he plays really well on
  1100. 48:55long golf courses
  1101. 48:56Um, so I'm all in on that. It's It's
  1102. 48:59boring. It's not exciting, but it works
  1103. 49:02here. It works in a big way. Look at the
  1104. 49:05finishes in the fall. Um, he did play
  1105. 49:08the Builtmore and he missed the cut.
  1106. 49:11Then he went to the President's Cup and
  1107. 49:13I think he performed pretty well,
  1108. 49:15although they lost. Then T32 in Utah,
  1109. 49:19T17 at the Bay Current, T19 at Vidanta
  1110. 49:23World. Uh I think he's going to make it
  1111. 49:25three in a row here uh at the Worldwide
  1112. 49:28Technologies Championship. Gained
  1113. 49:30strokes approaching the green in his
  1114. 49:32last three uh and gained significant
  1115. 49:35strokes putting in two out of his last
  1116. 49:36three as well. Six gained six strokes
  1117. 49:39putting at the Bay current and over
  1118. 49:42three and a half at the uh Bank of Utah
  1119. 49:45Championship. So the putting's good, the
  1120. 49:48approach play is good. We know he plays
  1121. 49:50well on long golf courses.
  1122. 49:54We don't quite get the odds we did last
  1123. 49:56week where we had him at plus 205. This
  1124. 49:58time we get him at plus 160, but I'm
  1125. 50:00still going back to the well.
  1126. 50:02Absolutely. Going back to the well on
  1127. 50:04CBZ. Let's just check one more thing.
  1128. 50:06We'll look at his course history. Um,
  1129. 50:09and he played here
  1130. 50:122021. That's not even here. Not even
  1131. 50:15here. So, no no history at uh El
  1132. 50:18Cardinal. El Camilleani finished tied
  1133. 50:2115th.
  1134. 50:23Not going to do us any good this week
  1135. 50:26though. But yep, love the fit. Love the
  1136. 50:28fit for CBZ. Uh so that's all we have
  1137. 50:32for you here uh today as far as those
  1138. 50:34players are concerned. We'll just recap
  1139. 50:36them quickly. I like Luke Clanton and
  1140. 50:39Harry Hall uh as outrights. 6,900 for uh
  1141. 50:43I'm sorry, 69 to1 for Clanton, 31 to1
  1142. 50:46for Harry Hall. Um, those are solid
  1143. 50:49outrights to me. We got Ben Silverman at
  1144. 50:53plus 260 for a top 20. Luke Clanton at
  1145. 50:56plus 220 for a top 20. Trace Crow plus
  1146. 50:59200 for a top 20. Michael Kim and
  1147. 51:02Cristian Bazidenhout plus 148 plus 160
  1148. 51:06for a top 20 as well. We'll keep track
  1149. 51:08of those throughout the week. It's
  1150. 51:11really who my model liked and who I
  1151. 51:13picked out even diving in uh a little
  1152. 51:16further from that. So again, really
  1153. 51:20interesting stuff. I can't wait to see
  1154. 51:21how how the um new model continues to
  1155. 51:25perform. Of course, it changes week in
  1156. 51:27and week out, but it's been very helpful
  1157. 51:29in identifying these kind of guys that
  1158. 51:32hit those top 20 markets regularly. Um
  1159. 51:35very effective in finding value plays in
  1160. 51:38DFS.
  1161. 51:40and it's
  1162. 51:42moderately effective in picking out
  1163. 51:44rights. I think that's it's the least
  1164. 51:46effective in that. Um but it can
  1165. 51:48definitely pick some value plays in
  1166. 51:51other markets which I think is the
  1167. 51:53primary purpose. And um I think that's
  1168. 51:56ultimately the best form of analysis.
  1169. 51:58It's one thing if you could pick an
  1170. 52:00outright. There's a lot of luck involved
  1171. 52:02in that. Um, when you can really hammer
  1172. 52:05these guys that you just know are going
  1173. 52:06to play well, that should play well and
  1174. 52:08do, that's a that's a good way to make
  1175. 52:12an investment and it's a good way for me
  1176. 52:14to analyze it as well because I need the
  1177. 52:16stats to back it up. You know, I don't
  1178. 52:18want to be just drawing names out of a
  1179. 52:20hat and hoping that it works. So, you
  1180. 52:23know, I want to have some really serious
  1181. 52:25analysis like we do here. And I think
  1182. 52:28the model's a really helpful tool for
  1183. 52:30that. If you want to continue to get
  1184. 52:32that serious in-depth analysis, player
  1185. 52:35analysis like this, we're doing it each
  1186. 52:37and every week right here on the second
  1187. 52:39cut. We'll also have round recaps for
  1188. 52:41you, tournament recaps as well on
  1189. 52:44Sundays, um, which we're going to
  1190. 52:46continue to do throughout the fall. This
  1191. 52:49Friday is a little up in the air. I'm
  1192. 52:51not sure. I have a uh, my son has a
  1193. 52:53hockey tournament. I'll be in a hotel
  1194. 52:55and I don't know yet if I'm going to be
  1195. 52:57able to do anything on Friday. Sunday at
  1196. 52:59some point I will. Uh so we'll at the
  1197. 53:02very least have a Sunday recap for you
  1198. 53:05which I'm really looking forward to. Um
  1199. 53:07this is your preview for the Worldwide
  1200. 53:12Technologies Championship at El
  1201. 53:14Cardonal. Uh really looking forward to
  1202. 53:16this Tiger Woods design, seeing who can
  1203. 53:19go out there and make a ton of birdies
  1204. 53:22this week. Hopefully we picked all the
  1205. 53:23right guys. Hey, I'm Greg Ducharm.
  1206. 53:26Thanks so much for watching us here on
  1207. 53:27the second cut. Until next time, let's

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