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WORLD CHAMPION Trades $500K Account LIVE (Extreme Accuracy) — Transcript

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0:00I want to see them fail to get back
0:02inside that level. Put in some effort
0:03and fail to basically reclaim it. And
0:06then if they do that and you start
0:07seeing the other party re-engage or like
0:10press back on the gas,
0:11>> At just 26 years old, Chris Creamer
0:13became one of the youngest World Cup day
0:15trading champions in history, generating
0:18a 100% return in a single month. But
0:22winning a world championship is one
0:24thing. Executing that same strategy live
0:27with the market moving against you is
0:30something else entirely. And today, for
0:32the first time ever, Chris is showing us
0:34exactly how he does it.
0:37>> You know, if we begin to push out of
0:39either of these areas and we see that
0:41aggression through big trade and it's
0:42actually getting rewarded with price
0:44movement, well then we can use that
0:45[music] to try and get into a trade.
0:47>> really separates Chris is how he
0:49approaches risk. He doesn't just look
0:51for opportunities. He waits for the
0:53market to confirm his ideas, knows
0:55exactly what would prove him wrong, and
0:58refuses to force a trade when the
1:00conditions aren't right.
1:02>> Delta build at the top right now, so
1:04buyers are getting pretty aggressive
1:05[music] here. If we start flipping
1:06lower, what I might end up doing or
1:08getting ready to do right now is look
1:10for a short position. So if we begin to
1:12push through here, well the only way
1:14we're going to be able to get past this
1:15area is we have to consume all that
1:18liquidity.
1:18>> Nothing in this video is financial
1:19advice. We're simply documenting how a
1:21world champion approaches the markets,
1:24makes decisions, and manages risk in
1:26real time. Now, let's see what Chris is
1:28made of.
1:30>> Now Chris, you're a Robbins World Cup
1:31trading champion. And last time we did
1:34an interview, everyone loved you, man.
1:36So I had to fly you back out here so we
1:38can do some charting and live trading
1:41because that's what we specifically
1:42missed last time.
1:44>> Mhm.
1:44>> So the market opens in 6 minutes now.
1:49>> Right.
1:49>> I want to see exactly what you look for
1:52in pre-market. And then when we actually
1:55open the session,
1:57how you identify setups and take good
2:00trades
2:01to be so successful and be able to be a
2:03world champion.
2:05>> Yeah, absolutely. So, we're a little bit
2:07before the market opens, maybe about 6
2:09minutes. I typically start my pre-market
2:12analysis actually a lot, you know,
2:14earlier before that. Typically, maybe an
2:17hour to 30 minutes before. Now, what we
2:20talked about in the interviews, we
2:22talked about something that I typically
2:24trade, which is looking for premium and
2:27discount relative to value. In this type
2:30of scenario for today, it's actually
2:31going to be a little bit different just
2:33because of what happened yesterday. So,
2:34yesterday we had CPI come out.
2:38It ended up causing us to have a pretty
2:41large drop off the open after a little
2:43bit of consolidation, and then we just
2:45dropped and dropped and dropped and kept
2:46going. So, there's not a lot of
2:49structure on the higher time frames for
2:51me to really, you know, use the
2:53Fibonacci retracements. Look for premium
2:55and discount relative to value. So,
2:57today it's actually a little bit
2:59different. So, currently right now,
3:02on the 5-minute,
3:04which is what I'll typically look at.
3:05So, just so you know, this chart right
3:07here is a 5-minute time frame. It has
3:10some of my levels from an indicator I
3:12created that basically just makes it a
3:14little bit easier for me to understand.
3:16Up here at the top is a lower time
3:18frame, 1 minute. I use this for
3:20execution. These are delta profiles in
3:22these candles as well as having big
3:24trades. And then this is a 5-minute
3:26chart on the side. And we have a RTH
3:30volume profile that's going to show up
3:32once the cash session actually opens.
3:34And these are also delta profiles with
3:36big trades inside of them. So, what I'm
3:38going to be looking at today is we're
3:40kind of consolidating towards the lows
3:42here. There's two things that can really
3:45happen or that I'm going to be paying
3:47attention to. And there's two main
3:49levels. The first area that I'm going to
3:51be watching for is kind of around this
3:5329,900 area and it's because it's where
3:57we start approaching back towards the
4:00extended trading hours value area high
4:02essentially. Like we start getting close
4:03to it. In the event that we start
4:05getting above it and we show some
4:07acceptance and buyers are able to hold
4:09then I'm going to be looking for
4:10potential long continuations to
4:13rebalance some of the drop down from
4:15yesterday. Um in the event though that
4:17we continue to drop through the
4:19overnight lows and the weekly lows and
4:21we continue through this 29,750 area
4:25then I do pay attention to kind of gamma
4:27and where we're likely to be going.
4:30And the next destination lower that I'd
4:32be looking for is maybe for a
4:34continuation down towards 29,600.
4:38So we're currently in a negative gamma
4:40environment, you know, we've been
4:41falling all day yesterday
4:43consolidating or balancing out during
4:45the overnight. So we're kind of in the
4:47middle here. Um we got about 3 minutes
4:50till the open. We're going to wait to
4:52see we there's three scenarios. There's
4:54always three scenarios every single day
4:56for me because
4:58I don't know necessarily what the
4:59market's going to do. So I always kind
5:01of base my day off of if this then that
5:04statements when it comes to a bullish
5:06scenario, bearish scenario and then as
5:07well as a rotational scenario. So for
5:10the rotational scenario, you know, if we
5:12stay between this level down here 29,750
5:16or the weekly lows and we also stay
5:19under 29,900
5:21then we can potentially rotate. So
5:24there is a potential that, you know,
5:26after a move like yesterday that we can
5:29see kind of like a balance session. Um
5:32if that's the case depending on how
5:35compressed or choppy the session is
5:37it may be a no trade. Um but you know,
5:40if there is an opportunity we'll try and
5:42take it. But at the same time I can't
5:44necessarily force anything especially
5:47since, you know, these are accounts that
5:48I care about. So, yeah. Um
5:51we'll see what happens throughout the
5:52open. We'll see what kind of reaction we
5:53get. I'm expecting it to be a little
5:55volatile.
5:56>> Mhm.
5:57>> Being that we're in a negative gamma
5:58environment, we're right around the put
6:00wall right now that Tanuki Trades has.
6:02But, if we begin to drop lower, that put
6:04wall is probably going to adjust to
6:0629,600.
6:07It's going to be the next area we're
6:08looking at.
6:09>> You know, excellent. And in the
6:11meantime, just so it's clear to
6:13everyone,
6:14this indicator you have specifically for
6:17your levels,
6:18>> Correct.
6:19>> Now, overnight and weekly low,
6:22>> Mhm.
6:22>> right? I see that that's one basically
6:24level. It looks like those two points
6:26are congruent.
6:28And then up here
6:30is the recovery gate.
6:32>> Right.
6:32>> you have your overnight upper value.
6:34>> Right.
6:35>> Can we start with the overnight and
6:37weekly low? Why is that an important
6:38level?
6:39>> Well, if you watch during the overnight,
6:41we've been kind of holding this area
6:43around the 29,750
6:45uh levels. So, you know, in the event
6:47that buyers are unable to actually hold
6:49above this and sellers start pushing
6:51below it, and we see some acceptance
6:53lower, meaning we're accepting lower
6:54prices, we're building value lower, then
6:56at that point, this continuation to the
6:58downside can actually continue. Think
7:00about it kind of like a support, right?
7:03>> Okay.
7:04>> Very basic support.
7:05>> And then what is the recovery gate?
7:08>> So, the recovery gate is when we start
7:10approaching back into um
7:13kind of like where we were failing to
7:14reclaim during the overnight. So, during
7:17the overnight session, we kind of
7:18dropped down a little bit. We saw a move
7:20come in, and
7:24>> And we're live. Yeah.
7:26>> The data feed is a little delayed right
7:27now, but we'll see if it snaps back.
7:29>> Okay.
7:30>> But, this level here is important to me
7:32because it's where buyers try to get
7:34back in to start pushing this back up
7:36and rebalancing some of the move from
7:37yesterday, and they kind of ran into
7:39some issues, and it also became the
7:41extended trading hours value area high.
7:43So,
7:44if we do make another attempt up here
7:47and we're successful with it, then at
7:49that point, yeah, you know, we can be
7:50looking for a continuation towards the
7:53upside. But right now, we just opened
7:55up. We're immediately dropping off the
7:57open.
7:58>> Mhm.
7:58>> We're getting kind of a pretty volatile
8:00move. It's already 50 points to the
8:01downside few seconds into the open. The
8:04target today for the downside for me is
8:07again that 29,600 area.
8:10>> Mhm.
8:10>> Um
8:12that we were seeing on Tanuki trade
8:14here. So, if we continue pushing lower,
8:16you're probably going to start seeing
8:17the negative gamma kind of
8:19taper off at this area and start
8:21building at the 29,600 and then this
8:25will then become the put wall for Tanuki
8:26trade. So, we'll see if we can actually
8:29hold below here or if we're just going
8:30to make a quick push lower and then
8:32maybe snap back up into the range.
8:34>> Now, if we hold below here,
8:36this is when you'll look for a short,
8:37correct?
8:38>> Yeah, I'll see if there's a potential
8:40opportunity for me to try and catch a
8:43continuation short. Although, there's a
8:44lot of times where, you know, there's
8:46not really a clean entry for me and we
8:48end up just kind of like running to my
8:51target and then that's kind of what ends
8:53up causing me to call call it a session
8:56pretty early.
8:57>> Yeah.
8:57>> Um cuz the thing is is like I always
8:59create these plans pre-market and I'm
9:02looking for the plans to play out and I
9:04can't necessarily sit here and try and
9:07create another plan
9:09after that just because
9:12when the session before the session
9:14actually begins, it's when I'm like the
9:15most neutral in terms of mind state
9:17>> Mhm.
9:18>> uh and mindset. So,
9:20>> Yeah.
9:20>> the moment we start price starts moving
9:22around off
9:23>> might be a little clouded.
9:25>> getting uh decision-making quality
9:27starts to degrade because events start
9:29happening. You potentially miss setups,
9:31take a winning trade, losing trade,
9:32doesn't matter. It starts tilting that
9:34meter off to to side, so
9:36>> Got it. So then 29,600 is the target as
9:41in profit target?
9:42>> It would be it would be the target for
9:44the day. So if I were to take a short,
9:45I'd be looking for us to make our way
9:47down there is where I'd probably I'd
9:48front run the level a little bit.
9:50>> Oh, so you'd take the short near 29,600?
9:52>> I would say I would try and look for an
9:54opportunity holding below the 750 area
9:57to see if we're going to hold below it
9:59first cuz we don't know. I mean, we're
10:00currently trying to push below it, but
10:02>> Yep.
10:02>> you know, for all we know within the
10:04next 10 to 15 minutes, we can totally
10:06snap this back up into the range and
10:08then at that point we're going to be
10:10watching sellers push down, fail to get
10:12below the lows, and then we can
10:13potentially be looking for us to mean
10:14revert back inside the range.
10:16>> So then I'm curious, how would you
10:17define
10:20what constitutes holding below this
10:23level? When do you say, "Okay, this
10:25level we're holding below."?
10:26>> So what I really want to see is I want
10:29to see sellers push below the level,
10:31right? So right now we're watching them
10:32kind of fail to get below this. I mean,
10:34we we see us right here. We're wicking,
10:36creating this wick below, and
10:39what's more important than watching
10:41sellers get below here is watching
10:43buyers step back in trying to get above
10:45and fail. So like right now, right? We
10:47we just watched sellers step in. We see
10:49the delta at the bottom of the candle,
10:51and now buyers are starting to step in.
10:54We want to see if they're going to be
10:55successful, and right now it looks like
10:57they're getting rewarded for that
10:58aggression. So it's making me think now
11:00I'm leaning more along the sides of
11:02okay, pause for a second. We might we
11:04may start getting that rotational
11:06scenario, and if that's the case, and
11:08there's an opportunity to look for a
11:09trade, well then we may actually look
11:11for a long. I mean, this is one of the
11:13key areas of the day. This is one of the
11:15key areas of the day, so it really I got
11:18to be a little careful at the open.
11:20>> Mhm.
11:21>> But we just want to see whether or not
11:22we're going to be able to hold above,
11:24hold below, and that's going to cause me
11:26to make a decision.
11:27>> That interpretation you just conveyed to
11:29me, is that how you treat every key
11:32when price action is near it?
11:34>> Yes, failure of reclaims. So, what that
11:36means is like let's say we get a below
11:39level. What I want to see for it to be
11:41like confirmed is I'd like to see the
11:43counterparty if it's buyers pushing over
11:46a level then the counterparty is the
11:48sellers, right? I want to see them fail
11:50to get back inside that levels. You
11:52know, put in some effort and
11:55fail to basically reclaim it. And then
11:57if they do that and you start seeing the
11:59other party reengage or like press back
12:01on the gas, then that's kind of my
12:03confirmation that you know, we're going
12:05to hold past that level or hold below
12:07the level.
12:07>> Got it.
12:08>> And so right now we're just whipping
12:09lashing back and forth on NQ. So, we're
12:11going to wait a little bit maybe for the
12:135 minutes uh to close here in about 3
12:15seconds.
12:16>> Okay.
12:19Okay.
12:20So, that was a massive wick candle.
12:22>> Right. So, that was a little bit of a
12:23whiplash at the open. We're going to see
12:25if buyers step in right now and can get
12:27back above. In the event that they fail,
12:29there may be an opportunity to look for
12:31shorts. We're watching Delta build at
12:33the top right now. So, buyers are
12:34getting pretty aggressive here. If we
12:36start flipping lower, what I might end
12:38up doing or getting ready to do right
12:40now is look for a short position.
12:42Right now, the moment that we start
12:44>> Nice.
12:45>> entering into and I'm going to basically
12:47place my stop loss right above where
12:49buyers failed.
12:50>> Okay.
12:50>> And we're still going to be looking for
12:52us to hopefully continue this move down
12:54towards that 600 area.
12:56>> Got it.
12:56>> In the event that we start pushing and
12:58getting aggressive here and we can get
13:00past where sellers failed the first
13:02time. Um I am going to move my stop loss
13:04to break even, but still we're kind of
13:07whipping lashing here. Uh let me put
13:09this on the right account.
13:11We're kind of whipping lashing here a
13:12little bit.
13:13>> Yeah.
13:13>> Um
13:14you know, we're about I'm actually going
13:16to move it to break even now. We're
13:18floating about 25 points in profit down
13:20here. It's kind of
13:22whipping back and forth. If we're going
13:24to go, I want it to go now. Otherwise, I
13:26don't really want this trade anymore, so
13:27>> Really? Got it. Okay. So, that's
13:29interesting. You took the entry right on
13:31the flip uh from the candle being
13:34bullish to bearish.
13:36>> Correct. We're seeing selling aggression
13:37stepping in, but we're we're really
13:39struggling right now, but I believe if
13:40we get past this and break, uh we should
13:43be able to move lower, but if we're
13:45going to hit break even, we'll just take
13:46a moment, we'll pause a little bit um
13:48because I do think that this can be a
13:50pretty good opportunity to catch a
13:51continuation lower, but if we're going
13:53to fail here, then shorts are just
13:54sitting
13:55>> That was a lot of volatility. Yeah.
13:56>> Yeah, so it What I like to see, I mean,
13:59this is exactly what I was talking
14:01about, right? We start getting below a
14:02level, we see buyers try to get back
14:03above in the event that they basically
14:06put in that effort and fail, um
14:09the moment that we start flipping
14:11towards the downside, I'm trying to
14:12catch that momentum lower, so I'm going
14:14to look for a continuation. The reason
14:16why I moved to break even so quickly in
14:18a scenario like this is because it's
14:20pretty close to the open. You know,
14:22we're kind of whipping back and forth,
14:24and we're also trying to short the lows.
14:26So, you have to be really careful about
14:28how you're managing risk in terms of you
14:31know, not allowing yourself to
14:33essentially short the bottom, right? And
14:35have this turn around like this, because
14:37for all we know, you know, sellers
14:39failed once, now they just failed again,
14:41so now it's really starting to look
14:43like, okay, you know, probably need to
14:46rethink trying to look for a short.
14:48>> Okay.
14:49>> There was the potential of a
14:50continuation, we gave it a shot, we
14:51managed risk, move it to break even
14:53relatively quickly, went like 25 points
14:56in profit, slammed back to break even.
14:58>> Yeah.
14:58>> So, now we're going to see if we can get
14:59back above this area. What I'm worried
15:02about right now, okay? Because this chop
15:04is my number one enemy. You know, like
15:07the moment that I see that we're
15:08chopping,
15:09it's basically sit on my hands, and if
15:12it continues to do that, session's over.
15:14If we see buyers step in and fail,
15:18sellers step in and fail, sellers step
15:20in and fail, buyers step in and fail.
15:22Aggression on both ends, no reward of
15:26price progression or movement of price
15:28in either direction. Well, this can be a
15:30potential indication that you know, hold
15:33on, chop might be starting. And if
15:35that's the case, then you know, I I
15:38can't trade it. So
15:39>> Yeah, totally. Understood.
15:41>> So, we'll see what we do here.
15:43>> There was still a lot of value in seeing
15:44how you managed that trade specifically.
15:48Move stop to break even very quick. And
15:50just basically it was a free trade.
15:52>> Yeah, I mean, we want to take a shot. We
15:54we saw, you know, buying activity
15:56stepping in. They failed. You placed the
15:59stop loss right above the above the
16:01failed aggression. Why? Because if they
16:03get past that
16:05area where they just failed, then the
16:07entire idea for a continuation lower is
16:10totally invalid. Now, why did I say move
16:13it to break even as we started
16:14approaching these lows? Cuz this is
16:15where the sellers failed the first time.
16:17So,
16:18you know, they can fail here again like
16:20we just saw. And
16:23if that happens twice, it could result
16:25in us kind of springing back up to the
16:27upside like we're kind of seeing right
16:28now with buyers stepping in. So, still
16:31want to wait. I would like to see how
16:32this is going to close kind of around
16:34this area.
16:35If we put in all of this aggression and
16:38we're able to actually push higher and
16:40not just like put in a bunch of effort
16:42and slam back down into the 750 area,
16:45then there may be an opportunity to look
16:46for a scalp short or a scalp long.
16:49>> Really? Interesting.
16:50>> Yeah, so we'll see. But it'll be a
16:52shorter target
16:54because we do need to be careful again
16:56of where we start trying to get towards
16:59value area high of the extended trading
17:01hours.
17:01>> Okay.
17:02>> Now, what I'll be looking at though here
17:04is if we do get a decent closure here in
17:06the next 10 seconds, I would like to see
17:08this next candle open up and immediately
17:11pull back towards all of this buying
17:13aggression. And in the event that we
17:15see, you know, sellers stepping in
17:17immediately and then failing the moment
17:19that the same thing happens, we flip to
17:20the upside, I look to go long, but I
17:22want it to be deeper.
17:23>> Deeper? Why is it got to be deeper like
17:25this?
17:26>> Because I want there to be more
17:27aggression from the sellers. This is not
17:30enough yet, so
17:31>> be aggressive and fail and this is like
17:34another indication of the
17:35>> Right, so
17:36we're starting to kind of push back a
17:38little bit.
17:38>> Mhm.
17:39>> Um I want to see the delta building from
17:42the sellers kind of getting more
17:44aggressive
17:45>> Mhm.
17:45>> and upon that failure, it's basically
17:47the same idea, right? We're kind of
17:49watching this area around here. Why?
17:52Because this is where buyers start
17:53stepping in aggressively and got
17:54rewarded. Um so we'll see right now, but
17:57it's going to be not the best looking
18:00risk reward, but again, we'll do the
18:02same thing. We'll move it to break even
18:04relatively quickly if we start seeing
18:06that aggression start stepping in and
18:08they get rewarded.
18:09>> Got it.
18:09>> So I'm going to be paying attention
18:10right now.
18:13It's going to be close to maybe a 1R uh
18:16cuz we're going to be looking to take it
18:17towards
18:17>> Mhm.
18:18>> maybe 29 880 area.
18:21>> Is that the recovery gate?
18:22>> Correct, yes.
18:23>> Okay.
18:23>> So this is where buyers stepped in on
18:25the overnight and were failing.
18:26>> Got it.
18:27>> So it's top of the range basically.
18:28>> Okay.
18:29>> So now we're pushing down into this
18:30area. We want to see if we're going to
18:32hold this because this is where buyers
18:33were getting aggressive, so in the event
18:36that we slam back through this, then
18:38it's really looking like we're about to
18:40chop, yeah.
18:41Okay, so
18:43we kind of pushed down a little bit.
18:44>> Right.
18:45And there was a lot of uh there was a
18:47big battle right at that area that you
18:49marked.
18:49>> Right.
18:50>> Yep.
18:52>> So it's looking like we may actually end
18:55up holding this. I'm going to go smaller
18:56size cuz the stop loss is going to have
18:58to be larger, so we're I'm going to wait
19:01for us to potentially, you know, make
19:03another attempt lower, but if we start
19:04slamming back up to the upside, I'm
19:06going to go half size on this position.
19:07>> soon as it flips, that's where
19:09>> Um or it starts picking up speed and you
19:11start seeing some of this red Delta
19:13flipping bullish like that. So now I'm
19:15going to place the stop loss same thing
19:18below where sellers failed and we're
19:20going to be trying to take it up towards
19:22this 880 area. So it's realistically a
19:25one to one risk reward and if we start
19:29seeing another push of buyers right now
19:31then again, I'm going to move it to
19:33break even pretty quickly because if
19:36we're going to have this momentum, I
19:38need it to continue and if we're
19:40approaching the top of the overnight
19:41range where this is also kind of an area
19:44of friction or potentially dangerous
19:46area, but that's why I kind of go half
19:48size on the position like this because
19:50stop loss is bigger risk reward isn't as
19:53good and you know, we're kind of pretty
19:56close in terms of distance. I mean we're
19:58in the middle of the range right now,
19:59but it is looking like we may
20:01potentially continue to the upside only
20:03because we're seeing sellers kind of
20:05struggle to get below this level. So
20:07we're going to be seeing if we make it
20:09towards the top of the range here just
20:10for about a 50 points or so.
20:12>> 50 points. Okay.
20:14So then we see positive Delta building
20:16here on the upside. We're making new
20:17highs.
20:18>> Mhm.
20:19>> Do do you do this kind of analysis while
20:22the trade is open or are you pretty much
20:24always going to wait for target or stop
20:26to get hit?
20:27>> Uh no. So I'm what I'm watching right
20:30now is you see how we're seeing this
20:31Delta is blue. So buyers are getting
20:33aggressive. Well, they're not being able
20:36to you know, push through it right now
20:38which is slightly concerning for my
20:39position. So the moment that we start
20:41really kind of making another drive
20:44through this area, I will again move it
20:46to break even. But
20:48I have to give it a little bit of room
20:51being that we are in the middle of this
20:54uh you know, this range here, but if we
20:55come back down here then it'll stop me
20:58out. I'll hold it to the full stop and
21:00then we'll see if we can actually
21:03have another opportunity or if the
21:04session's just going to begin to chop in
21:06the in the range that was created from
21:08the overnight session.
21:09>> Got it. Now, to read the aggress- the
21:12aggression of buyers and sellers, you
21:14just use this
21:16intra- this delta profile.
21:18>> Yeah, I love the delta profiles. Um I
21:21look for where they start clustering up,
21:23and when you see all of the clustering
21:25aggression and no type of price
21:26movement, I mean, well, if it's against
21:29our position, that's good, right? But if
21:30it's with our position, um you know,
21:33it's not as good. So,
21:35>> Yeah.
21:35>> candle closure, we'll see if they can
21:37push past this area. I'm getting ready
21:39to move it to break even because I don't
21:41want this slamming back on me.
21:42>> You're not too confident in this.
21:44>> Um in terms of this, I would like to see
21:47this push up at at this point. I don't
21:49want this to turn around. So, we're
21:51going to start kind of we're putting in
21:53some aggression here on the smaller time
21:55frame in terms of buying activity. If we
21:57can get past it, I'll trail the stop
21:58right below it, but
21:59>> Yeah.
22:00>> you know, we're kind of in the middle of
22:00the range, got to be a little bit
22:02careful, and then if we do kind of snap
22:05back in or we approach the top of it,
22:07then we're just going to wait to see.
22:09So,
22:09>> go.
22:09>> It's kind of indecisive right now, not a
22:12lot of follow-through.
22:13We are sitting right around the um
22:17the put wall here in terms of where
22:19Tanuki has the largest negative node
22:23um for gamma exposure. So,
22:25>> And I know a lot of people understand
22:27that, but there will definitely be
22:28people watching that don't. Why is this
22:30put wall important?
22:33>> Um so, it's where the most amount of
22:35negative gamma is sitting on the current
22:38profile. Now, this is using Tanuki
22:40trade, and Tanuki trade uses a naive
22:43calculation, and we're looking at QQQ
22:45levels. So,
22:47um they're essentially making a broad
22:48assumption that all dealers and market
22:50makers are short gamma. Um the put wall
22:53is a pretty important area to watch. You
22:55would look at it in terms of, you know,
22:57for me, whether we're going to hold
22:59above it or not. So, we were trying to
23:01push above it. It's sitting right here
23:03at this um
23:06this 29,805
23:08area, which is kind of like right where
23:10we came back up. Sellers try to get back
23:12below, and then here we are making a
23:14second attempt, and sellers are getting
23:15aggressive.
23:16>> Yeah.
23:16>> We have to be careful in a scenario like
23:18this because being in a negative gamma
23:21environment, we may see more volatility.
23:23>> Yep.
23:24>> When you look at a negative gamma
23:25environment, it's not necessarily, oh,
23:27it's red, we should be going down, or we
23:30can't chop, or we can't, you know, have
23:33like a compression. It just means that
23:36the volatility may be, you know, a
23:37little bit increased. So, that can be in
23:40either direction, right? And so, this
23:42can cause potential whiplash in certain
23:44scenarios that could take me out of
23:47trades very quickly, and then still go
23:49in my favor, and then, you know, it can
23:51result in it being a little messy. So,
23:54>> Mhm.
23:54>> right now, it's we gave a shot at both
23:57ends.
23:58>> Yeah.
23:58>> Um it hit break even on both times, but
24:01we're kind of back in this area. We're
24:03back towards this 750 area we're
24:05watching. We're seeing sellers get
24:06pretty aggressive down here.
24:08>> Yeah.
24:09>> Um we're going to see if they're
24:10actually able to hold. If not,
24:13at this point, the way that I'm looking
24:15at this is being that we saw sellers get
24:18aggressive at the lows. They failed.
24:20Buyers started stepping in pretty
24:21aggressively. We're still kind of
24:23holding this area that um you know,
24:25we're initially watching for.
24:27If we hold above it, we would be
24:30potentially making an attempt to break
24:31out of range highs. The only thing
24:33though is that I already tried to make
24:35an attempt here.
24:37The way that I think about things is
24:39like
24:40typically, my best trades, they don't
24:42give me an opportunity to get in twice.
24:43>> Yep. Okay.
24:44>> And when it does, it's not an invitation
24:47to necessarily try it again. It's kind
24:49of a red flag in the sense of if this
24:51was going to go, you know, my best
24:53trades, right? They typically will go,
24:55and you either get in or you don't, and
24:57it doesn't really give you a second
24:58opportunity. And when it does, you know,
25:01chances are you may be chopping. So, I
25:03have to be really careful. So,
25:05>> Yeah.
25:06>> what I'm thinking of right now is So,
25:08we're kind of in the box, basically.
25:09We're We're in the range. We're in the
25:10middle of the range. Seller's failing.
25:12Buyer's not really getting
25:13follow-through. I would like to maybe
25:15wait a little bit, maybe for the 4-hour
25:17open, see if we have some volatility
25:19stepping in, and then see if we can
25:21actually break out of here.
25:22>> Got it.
25:23>> Because now it's it's just uh
25:26it's a little
25:28more so, like I said, a sit-on-my-hands
25:29type of environment now.
25:30>> Totally understood. Now, ever thought
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25:44below. Now, back to the video.
25:47>> You had mentioned buyer or seller
25:48aggression, and I know that we did talk
25:50about how you look at the
25:53delta profile of the bar in order to
25:55determine that. But, obviously, you do
25:57have big trades on here, right? So,
26:00I've interviewed [snorts] a million
26:01people who talk about big trades and
26:03absorption. But, is there any sort of
26:06technique that you use that is unique to
26:08you in how you interpret the big trades
26:11indicator?
26:12>> Um it's pretty basic. I I think I mean,
26:15I don't really watch videos on how
26:17people use big trades. I would assume
26:18they all kind of use it the same. You
26:20would The easiest way to explain it is
26:22you would think about the uh big trade
26:24as like a catalyst. Please do not ever
26:27look at a big trade and try and just
26:29follow it.
26:30Um you know, you can end up getting
26:32pretty pretty wrecked. So, the way that
26:35I look at these is
26:36big trade comes in. Okay, great. Now, I
26:38want to see whether or not that we're
26:40going to have follow-through with that
26:42aggression or not. Now, when there's
26:44times like this where we put in a big
26:45trade and we don't get that
26:47follow-through, well, that's
26:48information. We put in a big trade and
26:50we start actually following through, the
26:51market's accepting that aggression,
26:53we're continuing through,
26:54>> Yeah. then, you know, that's also
26:56information. So, I really just want to
26:58see, you know, where is the big trades
27:00getting put in relative to where price
27:03is. So, right now, I don't know if we're
27:05accepting past the big trades or not
27:07because it's at the extreme of the
27:08candle. Now, if this was in the body of
27:10the candle, there'd be a little bit of a
27:11different way that I'd think about it
27:13because we put in the aggression and
27:14then we continued lower.
27:16>> Yeah.
27:16>> But, being that it's at the extreme of
27:19where basically price is right now, you
27:22don't necessarily, cuz sometimes, like
27:24let's say I have a I have a big trade
27:25continuation model where I'll mark out
27:27big trades, wait for us to retrace back
27:29into it, and then look for a
27:31continuation, but I don't like it when
27:34it's at the bottom of the candle like
27:35this. We saw these big trades get put
27:37in, we immediately rejected, we stalled
27:39out for a bit, and then now we're kind
27:41of here. This is just like a messy area
27:44right now.
27:44>> Yeah.
27:45>> Um, but here's the thing though, if we
27:47begin to push out of either of these
27:49areas and we see that aggression through
27:51big trades, and it's actually getting
27:53rewarded with price movement, that
27:55positioning's being kind of like
27:56defended in a way, well, then we can use
27:58that to try and get into a trade, look
28:01for a potential continuation.
28:03>> Got it.
28:04>> And so,
28:05we're kind of making another attempt
28:07here to push down. So,
28:08let's see what happens. Typically, too,
28:10on my charts at home, I will have the
28:12depth of market up where I'll have uh
28:14the DOM as levels, kind of like a heat
28:17map without the heat bands. I just want
28:19to see where resting liquidity is
28:20sitting.
28:21This is my first time on this laptop
28:23trading, it's not on here, um,
28:25which I should probably have it up,
28:26actually. Give me 1 second.
28:29Okay. So, these white levels, uh,
28:33the longer the bigger that the levels
28:34are, you know, the more resting orders
28:36that are actually sitting there. We see
28:38them starting to cluster a little bit
28:40around these lows.
28:41>> This is This is liquidity, correct?
28:43>> This is resting limit orders, correct.
28:45yeah. So, this is the passive
28:47participants in the market. So, if we
28:49begin to push through here, well, the
28:51only way we're going to be able to get
28:52past this area is we have to consume all
28:55that liquidity. And what we might see,
28:58you know, when we push past this area is
29:00we might see big trades starting to get
29:02triggered. Now,
29:04we think about that in terms of, well,
29:06if they do happen, we don't know if
29:07they're going to happen or not, but if
29:09they do show up, we're not necessarily
29:11going to be surprised that we're
29:12watching big trades starting to trigger
29:14because we see all of the resting
29:16liquidity sitting here. And the only way
29:18for us to get through it is, well, we
29:20have to get through it with aggression.
29:21So, we want to see right now if we're
29:24actually going to be able to continue
29:25this move to the downside. Now, I need a
29:28little bit more confirmation just
29:30because we are kind of whipping back and
29:31forth. So, I'd like to see it it may
29:34ruin the risk reward, like rather than
29:36the one we were trying to get where it
29:38was up here
29:39or about right here, but
29:42I just really don't want to get caught
29:45trying to short the bottom of chop
29:47>> Yeah.
29:47>> because that is probably one of the
29:49things that irritates me the most and
29:53will take that meter of being calculated
29:56to, you know,
29:57kind of off balance. So, I I try and
29:59avoid it at all costs.
30:01>> Yeah. Now, that liquidity did get
30:03consumed. You mentioned you need more
30:05confirmation given how
30:07>> Yeah, I mean, we're consuming liquidity.
30:09There's still more clustering here right
30:11below the lows at this level around 680.
30:14And so, I'm seeing right now, you know,
30:17if we start pushing below here, we start
30:19seeing these big trades picking up
30:20because we're consuming this, right? I
30:22Now, I want to see are we going to
30:23continue through it or not? If we
30:25continue through this and have like a
30:27pretty strong close on this 5-minute
30:29candle. What do I mean by a strong
30:31close? Well, we consume the liquidity,
30:34we don't just take it and snap back up
30:35into the chop. I want to see it start
30:37making that drive lower.
30:38>> Yeah.
30:39>> Then, what I'm going to be looking for,
30:41being that we still have some room
30:42towards our target is I'm going to be
30:44looking for the next candle in about a
30:46minute to open up immediately push back
30:49towards where that big trade sitting as
30:51long as it's a strong close and if we do
30:54the same thing we start flipping to the
30:56downside that I'm going to be looking
30:57for for short right.
30:59>> Got it.
30:59>> If we don't get that right let's say
31:02this is what we're looking for we're
31:03seeing this aggression we're seeing us
31:04potentially have some follow through
31:06here and this next candle opens up and
31:09just immediately goes and hits target
31:11well there's not a lot that I can do
31:12about that and I'll just have to kind of
31:14let it go.
31:14>> Got it understood
31:16>> [clears throat]
31:16>> so right now what we want to see then is
31:19this candle closes strong
31:21next candle
31:23>> opens up immediately pulls back up
31:25>> to that big trade level
31:27>> just towards it yeah depending on where
31:28we actually close so
31:30>> Got it.
31:31>> We have about 15 seconds until the next
31:33candle opens if we do and this is also
31:35where value area low currently is of the
31:37developing profile for the regular
31:39trading hours.
31:40>> Yeah.
31:42>> Then we can potentially look for a
31:44continuation short now the only excuse
31:46me the only problem with this right now
31:48is
31:49we are getting pretty close to our
31:52target so we got to be a little careful
31:54I want it to come back up a little bit
31:56more
31:57kind of towards this low volume node
31:58here.
31:59>> Mhm.
31:59>> If not and if we just drop straight off
32:01of here straight to the target
32:02>> Target's too close.
32:03>> right Now this target is also an area
32:07where we may potentially bounce though
32:09so I am going to be paying attention to
32:12it
32:13but I being that we're breaking lower
32:16and after a day like yesterday
32:18>> Yeah.
32:18>> it's definitely something where you
32:20really got to be careful so now we're
32:22seeing buyers stepping in a little bit.
32:23>> And did they get absorbed would you call
32:25that absorption?
32:26>> Well
32:28yes there's a little bit of absorption
32:30there we're seeing aggression stepping
32:32in and price didn't go anywhere so you
32:33know what's potentially happening well
32:35the passive orders of the passive
32:37participants being the resting liquidity
32:39is consuming that aggression to the
32:41point where, you know, it's hasn't
32:43actually produced price movements. So,
32:45we're going to see being again, we see
32:48that big trade. Now, we think is it
32:49going to continue or not, right? Are we
32:51going to accept past that or immediately
32:53reject it? We're seeing buyers stepping
32:55in and they were failing. This is where
32:58it gets a little tricky to try and take
33:00a short. Why? Because if I wanted to
33:02take a short here, we're shorting the
33:04lows right now and we're we're seeing
33:07sellers kind of stall out and struggle
33:09here. And where's the target? The
33:11target's right here and the stop loss
33:13would have to be here. This is not a lot
33:15of room. The stop loss actually, a safer
33:17area to put it would be above where
33:20sellers stepped in when we started
33:21taking that liquidity below. So, this is
33:24not a trade I would take. It just
33:26doesn't make a lot of sense. The risk
33:27reward isn't there.
33:29>> So, what risk reward do you
33:31generally try to target?
33:32>> Well, it depends. So, usually on a
33:35continuation style entry, they're lower.
33:37I mean, they'll be like maybe a 1R 1.1 1
33:42to 1.5. In very rare circumstances with
33:45a lot of aggression, a lot of momentum,
33:48sometimes I'm willing to take a negative
33:50R, but it really depends on kind of
33:52what's happening. They're not as common.
33:54When we're looking for a reversal, like
33:56let's say we were looking for a reversal
33:57here. Well, then at that point the risk
33:59reward can be anywhere from, you know,
34:02that I'm trying to target is either
34:04maybe a 2R 3R 4R or even way more than
34:06that.
34:07>> On reversals?
34:08>> Yeah, so when I'm trading, I'm not
34:10necessarily super fixed on trying to
34:13catch an arbitrary R.
34:15What I'm really looking for when I'm
34:17picking my targets a lot of the times is
34:19structure or areas of friction. Now, an
34:22area of friction is essentially like
34:25an area where my trade may run into some
34:29problems. So, like if we're looking at
34:30this chart right here
34:32and we're thinking to ourselves, let's
34:34say we wanted to take a long, okay?
34:36>> Yeah.
34:37>> If we start pushing up, where if you had
34:39to take a guess, right? I would like you
34:40to answer. Where do you think buyers may
34:43run into some problems?
34:44>> If we're pushing up?
34:45>> If we're pushing up, where do you think
34:46buyers might start running into the some
34:48problems? There's a couple areas.
34:49>> As a non order flow expert,
34:52I would say
34:54probably point of control right here.
34:57Right?
34:58>> Okay.
34:58>> That's the yellow line here.
35:00>> Yeah.
35:00>> If not there, value area high.
35:02If not there, maybe the daily high.
35:05>> [snorts]
35:05>> And if not there, well, you can keep
35:08going up infinitely to these levels,
35:10right?
35:10>> really what I'm looking at a lot of the
35:12times is when I'm thinking about areas
35:14of friction. So, for one being right now
35:17is where we we saw sellers step in and
35:19start going lower, but if we start
35:21basically getting above it and we're
35:23looking for the long, I would really be
35:25looking up here. Why do you think I'd be
35:27looking up here?
35:28>> Well, this looks like the daily high and
35:30sellers failed here. Or buyers failed
35:32here, I apologize.
35:33>> failed previously. So, I'll be trying to
35:36target things like that, right? Or I'm
35:38I'm trailing stop aggressively. Now, a
35:40lot of the times I don't even have a
35:42hard TP. Um depends on what the
35:44situation is. And there are times where
35:47I'm just trailing my stop. And sometimes
35:49the target may be 3R, but I get trailed
35:51out for like a 1.5. I mean, it really
35:53just depends. So, here we are. We're
35:56seeing buyers kind of step in again.
35:58Value area low is shifting lower on the
36:00developing profile.
36:02>> Point of control as well.
36:04>> Correct. So, we're kind of I'm my eyes
36:08are set on if we're going to be able to
36:09get back above this 750 area or not.
36:12>> Mhm.
36:12>> Um
36:13>> Now, even though this previous candle
36:16did not pull back, it it did, but we
36:19didn't flip, but didn't we didn't get
36:21the setup, right?
36:23>> Right. I mean, it's it's also one that I
36:25would pass on. And that's what what
36:27sometimes it comes to like using a
36:29discretionary framework, right?
36:32I I what I'm seeing here is okay, we get
36:35the follow through. Then we have buyers
36:37step in initially and we we flip
36:40bearish. But look at all of this delta
36:43building at the extreme. You see all of
36:45this aggression of sellers were right
36:47next to my area.
36:48And it's just it doesn't make a lot of
36:50sense in terms of trying to take that
36:52trade. I'd rather pass. And now we're
36:54seeing kind of buyers stepping back in.
36:56We're getting back up towards this 750
36:58area. It's starting to become like a
37:00very rotational scenario.
37:02>> you said.
37:02>> Uh there's not really a lot of follow
37:05through on either end right now. Now
37:07this one is a little bit nicer because
37:08it's a cleaner range. You know, we have
37:10defined highs and defined lows. It's
37:12kind of you know, a little bit cleaner.
37:14>> Yeah.
37:14>> Easier to understand rather than a chop.
37:17But this was before the open. Now we're
37:19opening up and it's a little bit
37:20different. We don't necessarily know if
37:22we have defined lows or defined highs
37:24yet because it's just been down up down
37:26up. So I want to see what we're going to
37:29do. Um
37:30>> Why does that change at the open for
37:32you?
37:33>> Well, at the open it's not that it
37:35changes. It's just that these aren't
37:36defined lows or defined highs yet. Yes,
37:39we have a swing high and a swing low,
37:41but I I want to see what's going to
37:42happen when we start trading
37:44>> structure from pre-market does not carry
37:46over for you?
37:48>> Um well, it does. That's why this level
37:50of the overnight low and the weekly low
37:51are here, right? So I do pay attention
37:54to it, but I want to see how New York's
37:56going to interact with it because the
37:57New York session is when you know, you
38:00get that huge spike of volatility. You
38:02know, there's a lot of participation.
38:03All the volume kind of comes online for
38:05the cash session.
38:07>> Mhm.
38:07>> So things you know, structure can change
38:09and things can be different because
38:11think about it like you're driving a car
38:13in traffic and you know, there's a bunch
38:16of rush hour traffic because there's so
38:18many people. There's so many
38:19participants with different goals,
38:21different capital all trying to
38:23accomplish whatever they're trying to
38:25accomplish. So, it's you got to be a
38:27little careful at the open.
38:28>> Understood, yeah.
38:29>> We we looked for two directional trades.
38:32You know, we we looked for the one based
38:33off of the plan from the morning for the
38:35downside. Um it it did kind of move a
38:38little bit further down and you know,
38:40we're pretty close to where the target
38:41was and now we're kind of popping back
38:43up. And we tried to take a continuation
38:45to the upside, hit break even. And so
38:48like the directional sense of okay, this
38:51may be a directional um session today
38:54for the New York session. Well, that's
38:56starting to diminish here. You know,
38:58what I mean? Like it's starting to think
38:59okay, this is probably more of a
39:01rotational scenario. If we're going to
39:04stay in between the recovery gate
39:06>> These levels, yeah.
39:07>> and the you know, the overnight weekly
39:09low, then there may be opportunities to
39:12just play the mean reversion and we may
39:14like kind of whip past and snap back
39:16just because it is New York session.
39:18>> Yeah.
39:18>> Um but yeah, I mean this is kind of a
39:20scenario on a normal day sitting at my
39:23desk where I would have I would have
39:24taken those same two trades, give it the
39:26shot, move to break even because I'm
39:28worried being at the open that we're
39:30going to do something like this, right?
39:32So, cover myself, protect myself, give
39:35it the chance to go. If it wants to go,
39:36great. If not, I'm totally okay with
39:38taking break evens.
39:40>> Yeah.
39:40>> So, it's really not a huge deal for me.
39:43But you got to be careful, you know,
39:45some people are not okay with taking
39:46break evens. It'll actually cause them
39:48to kind of tilt a little bit.
39:49>> Yeah.
39:50>> Uh but for me usually it's fine. So, I'd
39:52basically on a normal day just be
39:53sitting here thinking to myself okay,
39:55great. Like let's see what it does.
39:58Um and if nothing happens within like
40:00the next
40:0130 to 40 minutes, then that's where I
40:04would typically go okay, break even day.
40:06We'll just call it a day, move on to the
40:07next. But being that we're filming a
40:08video, you know,
40:11>> They all say that.
40:12>> [laughter]
40:12>> Yeah, well I mean, I do want to
40:15just talk about what's happening and
40:16hopefully, you know, kind of explain my
40:18thought process a little bit.
40:20>> even if it's break even day, losing day,
40:22it doesn't matter. There's tons of
40:23educational value in it.
40:24>> Because it's never about a single
40:26session or a single trade. So, there's
40:28no point in being so short-focused and
40:31and, you know, short-sighted in terms of
40:33like, I need to make money. I need to
40:35make it today. I don't care what the
40:36market's doing. Like, I need to take my
40:38piece of the pie. Some people are very
40:40good at that, but, you know, when it's
40:42not the way that that makes a lot of
40:45sense for me to take a trade, well, I I
40:47would typically just wait. I mean,
40:48there's plenty of days where I'll go and
40:50I just don't even take a trade at all or
40:52I may take one break even and just call
40:54it a day. So, this is kind of a
40:57just a a wait-and-see type of scenario.
40:59Kind of uneventful, but, you know,
41:01sometimes that's what trading is. Yeah.
41:03>> Well, I mean, these sessions will happen
41:05multiple times frequently. And uh
41:08people, if they learn from this video
41:11how to handle this kind of situation,
41:13there's a ton of value in that all on
41:15its own.
41:16>> Yeah, I mean, we we didn't know that
41:18this is what was going to be the case
41:20and it's not that this is bad price
41:22action whatsoever. Like, I'm not looking
41:24at this in terms of like, oh, we're not
41:26going anywhere. PA is bad. No, this is
41:28actually pretty nice. I mean, we're
41:30seeing very clearly what's happening.
41:33Um but, it's just like it doesn't make a
41:34lot of sense for me to try and trade
41:36these because the targets are very
41:37close. These areas of friction are very
41:40close. And where I'd have to put the
41:41stop loss would make it so that, you
41:43know, the risk-reward isn't really
41:45ideal.
41:46>> Mhm.
41:46>> So, we're going to see. I mean, maybe
41:47they can push through it. I hope they do
41:50so that there's a little bit of
41:51something that happens, but if not,
41:53>> That's it.
41:54>> It just it is what it is. Yeah.
41:56>> I'm going to be completely honest. Chris
41:58had to fly back to California. But, then
42:02this happened.
42:04>> All right. So, Brandon, as you can see,
42:06we've been kind of just consolidating
42:08here, you know, majority of the session.
42:11Kind of rocking back and forth in
42:12between the extended trading hours or
42:14the electronic trading hour value area
42:16low. And then this is where the
42:18overnight POC sitting.
42:20We've been going back and forth. We're
42:22seeing failure on both ends. We're
42:24currently making an attempt to actually
42:26push up and start making an attempt to
42:28get past
42:30the overnight value area high to
42:32potentially
42:34continue this structure where we find
42:36value during yesterday's regular trading
42:38hours. We found value a little bit
42:40higher up during the overnight. And then
42:43we're going to see if we can continue
42:44that value up structure to potentially
42:47start shifting the broader
42:50bearish structure into a search for
42:52value higher.
42:54So this area here is the first area I'm
42:56going to be watching. And what I want to
42:57see is we've been struggling to get past
42:59this area all morning. We're going to
43:01see if we can start getting aggressive
43:02here from the buyers. And what I'd like
43:04to see, now that we're getting
43:05aggressive, like you can see these big
43:07trades popping in. Buyers are getting
43:09aggressive. I'd like to see us have a
43:11pretty decent closure.
43:13And when sellers step in,
43:16I would like to see sellers step in,
43:19try and get back within
43:21the compression that we were having
43:22during this AM session. And if they fail
43:25and the candle begins to flip bullish,
43:26then at that point I will be looking to
43:28take a long
43:29with the first area of, you know,
43:31friction
43:33for my trade being value area high. So
43:36it's pretty close. There's not a whole
43:38lot of room. The full target would
43:41actually be up here sitting around
43:4329,990.
43:45And the reason for that is because
43:48on Tanuki Trade, we currently have the
43:49call wall sitting up here. So I'm going
43:51to front run a little bit. We're going
43:52to see if we can just catch a maybe a 1R
43:55on a continuation. But we need to see
43:58this aggression actually start pushing
44:01us out of here. Otherwise, you know, if
44:03we don't
44:05see that happen, we put in aggression we
44:07did here and here, well then it's likely
44:10we may just fall back into the range.
44:13These types of days are you got to be
44:14really careful about trying to trade the
44:17breakout of something like this. I mean
44:18you could have tried to do it here. You
44:20would have taken a loss. You could have
44:21tried to do it here or here, taken a
44:23loss. So, this is looking a little bit
44:26better than all the prior ones. So, what
44:28I would like to see right now is for
44:29sellers to start pushing this back. And
44:32I want to see this delta from the
44:33sellers build. They start getting
44:35aggressive trying to get back into this
44:37area that we've been compressing
44:39majority of the AM session. And then as
44:41this candle begins to flip bullish, well
44:44I'm going to be looking to take a long.
44:45I do want it to pull back a little bit
44:47more. This is not
44:49not really what I want to see yet. Now,
44:51in the event that it just runs up
44:53without us, then we have to pass on it.
44:55So, what I want to see right here is I
44:57want to see these sellers get pretty
44:58aggressive. Start pushing lower into the
45:02POC. Trying to get back below it
45:05for the overnight. So, this is kind of
45:07what we're looking at here.
45:09Let me remove the candlesticks so it's a
45:11little bit easier to see.
45:13So, we've been kind of stuck in between
45:14value area low and the POC all morning.
45:18We're watching price currently trying
45:20get back below the POC. If we start
45:22seeing us, you know, fail in terms of
45:25sellers reclaiming this area, I may
45:27start looking for that continuation
45:29long. We do need to be careful though
45:31because we did see this aggression kind
45:33of do the same thing and it kind of
45:35failing. So,
45:36we could be mean reverting it back into
45:38the middle of the compression. So, we
45:40just got to be careful. But, if we start
45:41seeing all of this build up in terms of
45:44negative delta,
45:45you know, some aggression from the
45:46sellers, and then we begin flipping
45:48bullish like this,
45:50then I'm looking to go long. The moment
45:52we get past the POC of the prior candle,
45:54I'll probably look to go long here. I
45:56want to see some more aggression of
45:57sellers.
45:58And I want to see that fail. What would
46:00make this even better is if we see a
46:02large seller stepping in. We see the
46:03bubble pop up
46:05and then it immediately rejects. So,
46:07we're starting to see what we want to
46:08see. We just need to start pushing past
46:09the POC here.
46:11We don't want buyers to get stuck here
46:13and keep falling back.
46:17I'm getting ready to start getting into
46:18a long. All right. So, we're in a long
46:20position now.
46:22We're going to be looking to take it up
46:23towards that
46:25going to front run the 29,990
46:28area. The stop loss is going to go below
46:31the POC.
46:33So, we're going for a little bit more
46:34than a 2R right now.
46:36Actually, almost about a 3R.
46:39We want to see this aggression continue
46:41from the buyers.
46:44Now, in the event that we start actually
46:46getting pretty aggressive here with
46:47buying activity and the next candle
46:49opens up and pulls back, there may be an
46:51opportunity for me to actually add into
46:53this. So, we're risking about $585
46:56to make 1425.
46:59So, we're going for about a 2.5R.
47:02What we need to be careful about is this
47:04is where buyers have been getting
47:05absorbed kind of all session, right? So,
47:08we need to see that aggression actually
47:10result
47:11in some follow-through.
47:13But, as we approach, if we start pushing
47:15this up here and we start approaching up
47:17into value area high of the overnight
47:20session, I will need to move this to
47:22break even. So, we need to start seeing
47:24this get past this area. If you're
47:26wondering what these lines are on the
47:27chart, this is where aggressive buyers
47:29were stepping in and they were in the
47:31wicks of the candles.
47:32So, we're really struggling here to push
47:34past it. Even from, you know, right at
47:37the open to a little bit earlier and
47:39then we're trying to make another
47:40attempt here.
47:42So, we're starting to push up. We're
47:43currently at a 1R right now. As we
47:45approach a little bit closer towards the
47:48value area high, I'm actually getting
47:50ready to move this to break even pretty
47:52quickly here.
47:53We don't want to see this aggression get
47:55put in and have this snap back. So,
47:57I want to give it a little bit of little
47:59bit of room for the moment, but if we
48:02get another drive higher, then I am
48:04going to move this to break even. So,
48:05this is what we don't want to see for
48:08our
48:09long position here.
48:11But, I do want to give it the chance cuz
48:13I there is a potential we're going to do
48:14a grind up being later in the session.
48:17So, I don't want to get stopped out of
48:19the grind up. This is still where this
48:20trade becomes invalidated when we get
48:22back below the overnight POC, back below
48:25where sellers filled initially.
48:29All right, so buyers are getting
48:30aggressive again. We're back in the area
48:32where we initially kind of struggled to
48:34get past. At this point, it's safe to
48:36move my stop to break even because if
48:37this fails again, then likely we may
48:40actually be coming back into the range
48:43here that we created during the AM
48:45session.
48:46So, what I'd like to see at this point
48:48is we are approaching value area high of
48:51the overnight. I need us to get past
48:53this in order for us to, you know,
48:54obviously make our way towards the
48:56current call wall on NQ. So, this is
48:59what's standing in our way right now of
49:01this trade working out.
49:03The value area high of the overnight or
49:05the ETH volume profile. If we do start
49:08getting aggressive when we push into
49:10this, well, I may actually trail my stop
49:12just to capture a one R. We are risking
49:14about 115 ticks,
49:17maybe $580 on the stop loss. If we end
49:20up getting up here,
49:23you know, we'll be floating about an
49:24$800 profit and we'll have enough room
49:27to actually move it to
49:28a one R, trail the stop a little bit, so
49:31that we at least take some profits off
49:33the table if it doesn't want to break
49:35through the value area high.
49:37All right, we're making that drive
49:38higher. I'm dropping the stop for a one
49:40R. We're going to see if it can go for
49:41the full 2.5 R.
49:43It's trailing behind the big trade right
49:45now.
49:46It's a little bit more than a one R.
49:47We'll see if we can actually go and hit
49:49TP. We're currently front running the
49:52call wall that's showing up on to Nuke
49:54right now.
49:55So, the trade's currently floating at a
49:572R.
49:59We're going to see if we can get a
50:00little bit closer.
50:02As we start approaching further to the
50:04upside here, I am going to get ready to
50:06start trailing the stop a little bit
50:07more aggressive. The reason for that is
50:09we are approaching the call wall, so we
50:11may start seeing a little bit of
50:12friction
50:13and having this buying momentum
50:16potentially slow down.
50:21But, due to the nature of the grind up,
50:23we do want to give it a little bit of
50:24room.
50:27So, no matter what, at this point, we
50:29have locked in a 1R.
50:31Currently floating about a 2R right now,
50:32but we're going to see if we can
50:34actually continue or not. If it comes
50:35back and hits us out at 1R, then that's
50:37fine. I don't want to be in this trade
50:38anymore if we can't actually hold above
50:40this, so.
50:43All right. So, we got taken out for a
50:451R, basically.
50:47Uh taken out just about here.
50:51A little bit over a 1R, about a 1.3 or
50:53so. We wanted to see if we can continue.
50:55It still might continue, but at this
50:57point, it is getting later on in the
50:58session.
51:00So, I'm okay with that. We'll move on to
51:01the next day. We're also kind of
51:03approaching the time I typically stop
51:05trading anyways.
51:05>> Chris, I think that there is exceptional
51:09educational value in order flow analysis
51:12in this session and in risk management
51:15and just reading price as it develops
51:18and
51:18>> Yeah, I you know, I wish I could have
51:20taken more setups, but look at what's
51:21going on right now, you know? I mean, we
51:23there's still time, but realistically,
51:25on a normal day, I would look at this
51:26and be like, "Time to go make some
51:28breakfast, right?"
51:29>> Yeah, yeah, yeah.
51:29>> Cuz it's uh we're just snapping back and
51:32forth. You're watching sellers step in,
51:33buyers step in. We're not getting
51:35anywhere. We're we're pinning. Look at
51:36the 1-minute time.
51:37>> action sucks now. It does. Right now.
51:40>> Now it really died down. Like, this was
51:42nice. This is pretty nice. It was a
51:43little bit, even though rotational,
51:45still enough room, still directional.
51:47But, now that we're talking about this,
51:48this is not something you would want to
51:50necessarily fade the edges of.
51:52Maybe if you're on like a very small
51:54time frame it makes sense, but even the
51:551 minute, I mean you have we're
51:56chopping. You have overlapping candles.
51:58It doesn't really make a lot of sense.
52:00>> Yeah, understood. Well, Chris, thank you
52:02so much for coming out to Dubai, man.
52:04>> Yeah.
52:04>> Seriously appreciate it.
52:05>> It's great being here. Thanks for
52:06inviting me.
52:06>> Absolutely.
52:08IQ Capital, you can start your first
52:09challenge for as little as nine bucks.
52:12Terms and conditions apply. Check the
52:14link in the description below for more
52:15details. Built by traders for traders.

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