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Wolfers: Stupid Trade Wars and Gangster Government — Transcript

by To the Contrary With Charlie Sykes · 8,695 words · 1,328 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00I'm Charlie Sykes and this is the To the
0:01Contrary podcast. Look, if you read my
0:03newsletter yesterday, you know that I
0:05think that the Democrats do have a
0:07Hassan problem, but Republicans
0:09have a much much bigger Elon Musk
0:13problem. If Democrats have to answer for
0:16their embrace of a Twitch streamer,
0:20doesn't every Republican in America now
0:22have to answer for their new sugar
0:25daddy, Elon Musk? uh the world's richest
0:28bigot, anti-semite and racist who is
0:31announcing uh that that he is going to
0:33make a major contribution maybe hundreds
0:36of millions of dollars to the Republican
0:38midterm campaign. So uh if you know
0:41Abdul Elsed has to answer questions
0:43every single day about Hassan
0:46shouldn't every single Republican in
0:48every state in every district [snorts]
0:50have to answer questions about Elon
0:53Musk? Just saying. Well, we have a lot
0:55of other things to talk about, including
0:57our uh very strange new endless trade
0:59war with Canada. Uh what's going on with
1:02the Census Bureau? Have we really seized
1:05all of Venezuela's oil? And [music] what
1:08is the new Fed Chair Kevin Wars saying
1:10and what is he not saying? Let's dive
1:12in.
1:15[music]
1:19And joining us to [music] deal with all
1:21of these questions, our good friend, the
1:24people's economist. People's economist.
1:27Isn't that a good title? Justin Wolfers,
1:29uh, who is the host of Platypus
1:31Economics, big YouTube star, man of
1:34many, many, many media. So, Justin,
1:36thank you for coming back on the
1:38podcast.
1:38>> Great pleasure to be here, Charlie. The
1:40fact that you listed so many things
1:42we're going to get through seems to
1:44suggest you forget how much you and I
1:46get sidetracked and gas bag a little.
1:48>> Yeah. Well, I didn't want to get too
1:49sagged, but but I don't think I've
1:51spoken to you since one of the great
1:52moments, one of the great viral moments
1:54in cable TV history when you were on
1:58live on CNN and talking about Fed
2:02economic policy and you swallowed a fly
2:06live on the air. Can you just just for
2:09for our handful of listeners that that
2:11are not aware of this extraordinary
2:14moment when you swallowed a fly and kept
2:18going?
2:19The show must go on, Charlie. So there I
2:22was. I was recording. We're on holiday.
2:23We were near the beach and um I was
2:25talking on CNN and then zoom this thing
2:28goes in my mouth. But it doesn't just go
2:30in my mouth. It goes straight down the
2:31back and the next thing I know I'm
2:33coughing.
2:35But also, I just got asked a question by
2:37the host. So, what are you gonna do? You
2:40gonna turn the camera off? You're gonna
2:42I decided what I'd do is keep talking
2:44because I know no other way. But more to
2:45the point, I made the fly a metaphor for
2:48economic policy.
2:50>> The fly, you see, suddenly made it very
2:52hard for me to speak. And I need to
2:55explain that to the audience while not
2:57going off topic. And all I love is
2:59economics.
3:00And so I noted that uh my current
3:03situation with the fly in my throat
3:04making it difficult to speak meant that
3:06I was more like Kevin Walsh. Kevin Walsh
3:08has decided that he wants to explain
3:10less about monetary policy. He wants to
3:13be known as silent Kevin from now on.
3:16And um so I spent a moment sort of just
3:18play acting silent Kevin.
3:20>> See I I I was really impressed with that
3:22because this of course is the big fear
3:24of ever doing live stuff. You know when
3:26you swallow and you start coughing or
3:28everything what do you do? We just kind
3:29of hope that they turn the camera off of
3:31you. So, but this was the the fact that
3:34you not only kept going with a fly in
3:38your throat, but you actually made a
3:40metaphor to what you were discussing. I
3:42mean,
3:44>> two thumbs up, Justin.
3:45>> The fly actually demanded an appearance
3:48fee later on. Um,
3:50>> look, the poor bugger is dead. I feel
3:52badly for that fly, but
3:54>> I mean, I murdered someone on national
3:56television. I feel bad about it.
3:58>> Well, murdering someone, but it was a
4:00fly. But again, the fly has agency. I
4:02mean, the fly made the the the bad
4:04career move to actually fly into an open
4:06mouth, which never actually works out
4:08well for the fly. However inconvenient
4:09it is for the person who actually
4:11swallows the fly, it's usually does not
4:13work out well for the fly. Just
4:16>> I'm not sure. I mean, that is the most
4:17famous fly in its little fly family.
4:20>> It is. It is. and I urge people to go
4:22see the video because it's real and it's
4:25fabulous. Okay, so where should we start
4:28today? Could could you explain to me
4:31what's going on with Canada and we're
4:33going to get to beef in just a moment.
4:35You know, I this is one where I I
4:37actually did an interview with the CBC
4:39over the weekend and I I just it's so
4:41hard as an American to explain that
4:43nobody in the United States is mad at
4:45Canada. Nobody hates the, you know,
4:46Canadians. Nobody wants a trade war with
4:49Canada. You know, this used to be a meme
4:51on South Park and and yet it's going to
4:54hurt, right? I mean, it's there's going
4:56to be a tremendous political and
4:59financial cost for Canada, but those
5:02guys are standing up to Donald Trump.
5:03So, you're you're first cut on on war
5:07with Canada. I can't believe I'm saying
5:09that.
5:09>> Like, just wow. Wow. That's all you can
5:12say about it. Um, look, the president
5:14remains as ever laser focused on
5:17delivering for everyday Americans.
5:19identifying our enemies and rivals and
5:21making sure that we play a bigger
5:24>> uh role on the world stage. Um, and it's
5:28obvious if you look around the world
5:30right now, our biggest enemy is Canada.
5:33>> Yeah, obviously
5:34>> if you can't see that, you're a fool.
5:37>> And um
5:39I forgot that I was in America. I
5:41probably have to put sarcasm up here so
5:44sarcasm emoji here somewhere.
5:46>> Yeah. Um, look, this is just nuts. So,
5:50actually, let's just go back because
5:51it's not the beginning of it. It the
5:53president to his great credit when he
5:55ran for election in 2024 was honest and
5:58said, "I love tariffs. I'm tariff man.
6:00I'm going to put tariffs on."
6:02>> The most important word he didn't say
6:04was Canada.
6:06He talked a lot about China and other
6:08countries that were ripping us off, but
6:09he never once said anything negative
6:11about Canada or even identified Canada
6:13as a potential target for his tariffs.
6:16The reason I mention that is very soon
6:19after inauguration, one of the very the
6:21very first tariff move he made was very
6:24high tariffs on China, Mexico, and
6:26Canada.
6:27>> Mhm. [cough and clears throat]
6:28>> So this is very early in the
6:30administration, Canada. And this was the
6:32so-called fentinel tariffs, which is
6:33we're going to put tariffs on unless you
6:35behave yourselves and stop fentinel
6:37coming across the border. And the only
6:40problem with this when it comes to
6:41Canada is fentinel doesn't come from
6:43Canada. like you know there's a couple
6:45of hippies who crossed the border you
6:47know with a little bit down you know in
6:49a back pocket maybe but the very first
6:53trade move of the administration was an
6:55attack on Canada under
6:57>> clearly you know what was clearly a
6:59pretext so this has been there from the
7:02very beginning the narrative is actually
7:04kind of interesting which was that was a
7:06very serious set of tariffs and then
7:09Canada promised that they would stop
7:11making the fentinel they already don't
7:13make.
7:14>> Yeah.
7:14>> And then the fentinel tariffs partly got
7:17dropped and eventually they were also
7:18ruled unconstitutional. So they have
7:20also all been
7:23>> Oh, there's the fly all these weeks
7:26later. Just came back.
7:29>> It's a miracle.
7:29>> Just flew away. I love that.
7:31>> Yeah, it's it's a miracle.
7:32>> Um so
7:33>> right here,
7:34>> Canada,
7:35>> bless you.
7:36All of us who bought maple syrup in the
7:38early days. Um we paid more for our
7:40maple syrup and the importer maybe
7:42that's Kroger where you live. Depends
7:44what part of the country. Well, they've
7:45got the money back. Um then we got to
7:49this very interesting stage which is the
7:51president likes to bellow about Canada
7:52for reasons nobody understands. Um and
7:58they came up with an idea which is what
7:59they do is they'd say, "Well, you get to
8:01put a tariff on Canada, but there's an
8:02asterisk next to it." Because I want to
8:04remind everyone, we have a free trade
8:05agreement with Canada. It was called
8:07NAFTA. The president tore that up,
8:09renamed it, renegotiated it, called it
8:11the USMCA
8:13in 2024. Comes to power and says, "Which
8:16idiot signed this agreement?" The first
8:18President Trump if you're interested.
8:20>> Um, he got rid of it. Uh, but so we do,
8:23but he actually hasn't gotten rid of it
8:25at this point. And so he put an asterisk
8:27next to all these tariffs and said, "Oh,
8:29it applies everywhere except for goods
8:30covered under the USMCA." which
8:33basically allowed him to say out loud,
8:34I'm putting huge tariffs on Canada,
8:36while also with the asterisk asterisk
8:39getting rid of tariffs on 90% of
8:41Canadian goods altogether. So, in fact,
8:43Canada went from getting the highest
8:45tariffs to the lowest tariffs.
8:47Actually, Mexico did a little better
8:49there for a while because they were
8:50really good at uh negotiating with the
8:52president. More recently, what happened
8:55was um I think the story is it may not
8:58have fundamentally been about Canada,
9:01which is if you recall, the president
9:02imposed unconstitutional tariffs under
9:05the emergency powers act. Then he put on
9:08a temporary tariff which may yet be
9:09ruled unconstitutional. That temporary
9:11tariff was only allowed to last 6
9:12months. And I remember uh when that was
9:15imposed, that was the first day I met
9:16you in person, Charlie. Mhm.
9:18>> Um and then the 6 months were up and he
9:23just before the 6 months were up he
9:24realized he was about to impose tariffs
9:26on everyone else. And so what he did is
9:28he blew up a whole new set of tariffs on
9:30Canada which I think of as basically
9:31being a brushback pitch which is I'm
9:34about to impose a bunch of new tariffs.
9:36If anyone retaliates I'm coming at you.
9:38Look what I'm about to do to Canada.
9:40That would that's a basic theory of the
9:42case.
9:43>> Um so it wasn't so much about Canada. It
9:44was just whoever was handy. M
9:46>> then the Canadians didn't like being
9:49tariffed. They subsequently retaliated.
9:51The president retaliated to their
9:53retaliation. I think they're about to
9:54retaliate to the retaliation of the
9:55retaliation. This is what a trade war
9:58is.
9:59>> And here we are. What's absolutely
10:01striking about this is if you look at
10:03polls of how do Americans feel about
10:05this? Americans like Canadians.
10:08>> Um Americans have no interest in tariffs
10:10on Canadians. Let me also add Americans
10:12have no economic interest in a tariff on
10:15Canada. Let me give you just a very very
10:18simple analogy. I come from Michigan. Um
10:21that's why Charlie, you're about to say
10:22go blue.
10:24>> No, never going to close. I might go on
10:28strike until you do.
10:30>> Okay, [snorts] fine.
10:31>> All right.
10:32>> I'm in Michigan. We got Oh,
10:36>> all those coastal elites. This is what
10:38it looks like in the Midwest. This is
10:40what countsly rivalry where look how
10:42many
10:43>> you know how often I I get accused of
10:44being a coastal elite and I'm going I
10:46live in Meccan Wisconsin
10:49>> we have to remind people
10:53>> but we're also like Michigan however we
10:55are a border state
10:57>> yes we do border can
11:00>> that's exactly my point which is if you
11:02think that making it harder for goods to
11:04cross the border between Michigan and
11:05Canada is good for Michigan then Why
11:09don't we make it harder for goods to
11:11cross the border between Michigan and
11:12Ohio?
11:15>> Seems like
11:16>> Yeah,
11:18>> I don't think that creating a border
11:20with Ohio is creating tariffs with Ohio
11:24would be a very good idea.
11:26Same logic says creating tariffs
11:29>> across the border with Canada is not a
11:31very good idea. So look, the president's
11:33miles out over his skis. He doesn't have
11:35the American people behind him on this.
11:38But it's actually worse than that.
11:40Thought you'd say that. [laughter]
11:44>> The problem is
11:45>> worse than that.
11:46>> I know.
11:47>> I actually I just want to tell you a
11:48funny story. You said, Charlie, you'd
11:50been on the Canadian Broadcasting CBC
11:53[snorts]
11:54>> recently. I've been spending quite a bit
11:55of time talking to my friends in Canada
11:57and a while ago they were like, "What's
11:58going on?" [gasps]
12:00>> And I did what any good American with no
12:02accent would do. I said, "We love you.
12:05>> I'm sorry."
12:06>> I said, "I'm sorry. Most Americans don't
12:08feel this way." [clears throat]
12:09>> Um, and the Canadian interviewer was so
12:12Canadian. Do you know what he said back?
12:14He said, "I'm sorry you had to
12:15apologize." He apologized.
12:18>> Yeah.
12:18>> But we had to apologize. That's how nice
12:21Canadians are. [sighs and gasps]
12:23Um, okay. [laughter] So, you could
12:25imagine, look, I can't imagine a world
12:28in which tariffs on Canada make sense.
12:31Let's pretend we can go to that world.
12:33All right, just pretend we can go there.
12:35Here's the problem. Your job as a leader
12:39of a company, of a country, of a family,
12:43in your community, is identify what's
12:46good for your community and make it easy
12:49for other people to say yes.
12:52I I I just want to make that really
12:55clear. Your job is to make it easy for
12:58other people to say yes to things that
13:00benefit you.
13:03That's not what happened in Canada. The
13:04president began the term by calling it
13:06the 51st state. Explicitly threatened to
13:09use American economic power to take it
13:11over to be clear without consent. And
13:14it's a very loaded word, but I mean it
13:16to be loaded. He repeatedly calls Prime
13:19Minister Carney Governor Carney. He uh
13:23>> uh he called Canadians nasty, which
13:28>> doesn't suggest he's a very good judge
13:30of character. He called them clowns. He
13:31told them to fall into line. Um and most
13:35recently renamed, I mean, laser focused
13:39on the cost of living and the
13:40affordability crisis. He renamed
13:43Lake Ontario
13:45Lake America. And my partner Betsy
13:48Stevenson, I thought, had a lovely line.
13:50She called that the let them eat lakes
13:52moment. Um, and the American working
13:55middle class really are finding it a
13:56whole lot easier to get by
13:59>> because the name of a lake has changed
14:00on Google Maps if you log in from the US
14:02but not if you log in from the rest of
14:04the world. Oh, okay. Can I just digress
14:06for a moment that
14:08because over the weekend I went on
14:10Google Maps and because I I I saw this
14:13on social media and I thought surely
14:14not. Of course, Google did not cave in.
14:17Google would not rename Lake Ontario as
14:21Lake America. And yes, they did. And you
14:25want to talk about the most craven lick
14:27spittles out there. I mean, it's like I
14:30would have thought by this point that
14:32companies would have figured out that
14:34that that it it doesn't it is not in
14:36their self-interest to be clown
14:39themselves in this particular way.
14:41particularly when you are as big and
14:43powerful as Google and something as
14:46stupid as this and Google what it took
14:48them like five minutes to say yes Mr.
14:51president, we're going to call Lake
14:53Ontario Lake America. I mean, what the
14:56hell? What What is the So, that logic
15:00still exists in American big capitalist
15:03company, you know, companies that we are
15:06going to ignore what the vast majority
15:09of our own customer base is going to
15:10think about this and we're going to
15:12cater to this audience of one. Can you
15:14explain that in economic terms to me,
15:17Justin?
15:19>> Absolutely. And I love this. Let's have
15:20a little sidebar. We're not going to get
15:22through your whole agenda. I think
15:23you're wrong on this issue and I think
15:25you're a very bad conservative. Now, I'm
15:27not a conservative.
15:28>> So,
15:28>> okay.
15:29>> Um, look, here's the thing. Um, the
15:31president didn't just name it, rename it
15:33in a social post,
15:35>> right?
15:36>> He also directed, I think it's called
15:37the US Geological Survey or the US,
15:40>> our official people.
15:42>> Yeah.
15:42>> He directed them to rename it.
15:44>> So, someone's responsible for naming
15:46stuff, right?
15:47>> I'm assuming he did this properly. and
15:49he said to them, "Rename it." [gasps]
15:52Um, should private companies respect the
15:56naming conventions decided by their
15:58democratically elected government?
16:00>> Honestly,
16:01>> no. Not in this case. No. No. Sir,
16:03>> honestly, I think they should.
16:04>> Yeah.
16:05>> The the sin here
16:08maybe is that the American people
16:10elected the wrong person or the person
16:11made a bad choice. But do you really
16:15want private sector corporations, and
16:17I'm asking you this as a conservative,
16:19>> evaluating the wisdom of each and every
16:22decision made by the federal government
16:24and each and every naming and you want
16:26every street name and asking whether I
16:29think that guy was a homophobe, this guy
16:31owns slaves, this is a good guy, that
16:33guy was too tall, this guy was too
16:35short. Do you really want him doing
16:36that?
16:38>> No.
16:38>> You want to give those corporations the
16:40power to decide the names? Would you
16:41rather the US government decide this or
16:43Google?
16:44>> No, I I would rather I would rather the
16:46common sense decides this. And and this
16:48is where as a conservative, I believe
16:51that the private sector does not need to
16:53bend the knee to the political power
16:56each and every time, particularly when
16:58it defies history, tradition, when it is
17:03this absurd, all those other things. No,
17:05I mean if it did get into the point
17:07where everyone individually decided what
17:09they're going to name everything, you
17:10would have complete chaos. However, I
17:13think that there are those moments where
17:16we can as private individuals look at
17:19the emperor and say, "I'm sorry, the
17:21emperor has no clothes. I'm sorry. It's
17:24not Lake America. It's Lake Ontario."
17:27So, this is where I'm not only a
17:30conservative, I am a contrarian and
17:32perhaps maybe a little bit subversive
17:35when it comes to things like this.
17:37>> I I may have failed my first attempt. I
17:39just failed my first attempt at being a
17:41conservative. That was my best attempt
17:43at a conservative
17:44>> shot. Yeah. No. And um [laughter] the
17:46other thing I learned over the weekend,
17:49a little Midwestern aside here up here,
17:52uh you know, kids in high school in
17:53school have to learn the five great
17:55lakes
17:56>> and uh home homes.
18:00>> Exactly. So to explain, I had this
18:02taught to me because remember I didn't
18:03grow up in this country.
18:05>> Yeah.
18:05>> Uh use an acronym. Hiron Ontario M is
18:10>> Michigan.
18:11>> Michigan E is S is superior. That's
18:15right. And now that like Ontario is like
18:20America, we have to remember shame.
18:23>> Shame. Superior. Huron America.
18:26Michigan. Eerie. Yeah.
18:28>> And maybe then you're in favor of this
18:30now, Charlie, that we now have kids in
18:33Michigan who are learning and in the
18:35Midwest learning the names of the lakes
18:38and they learn it using the acronym
18:39shame. Maybe that's actually perfect.
18:43My my guess is that won't actually be
18:44taught, but but it's it's a worthy it is
18:47a worthy analysis and I'm I'm glad to
18:49hear that that school children in what
18:52we now refer to as Eastern Wisconsin are
18:55learning that sort of thing. I'm sorry.
18:57Let's go back to um our our discussion
19:00of can. Okay, so one of the the key
19:02dynamics I want to get your take on.
19:04>> Let me bring everyone back.
19:05>> There was a huge sidebar because Charlie
19:07can't help himself. The question is
19:08what's going on in Canada? The assertion
19:10that I made is a leader's job is to make
19:13it easy for other people to say yes that
19:16helps their community.
19:18>> All [clears throat and snorts] of this
19:18nonsense, the 51st state, the governor,
19:21the nasty, the clowns, the inline, the
19:23lake America, makes it unbelievably
19:26difficult for Mark Carney to say yes to
19:28anything. [clears throat]
19:29>> That's the point, which is when you
19:31talk, as Charlie did this week, to folks
19:33on the other side of the Canadian
19:34border, this is not a trade war. This is
19:36an existential threat. It's a question
19:38of sovereignty. It's a question of
19:39dignity
19:41>> and they [clears throat] will not say
19:42yes to anything this president asked
19:45for. He has done the opposite of
19:46leadership. He has made it harder for
19:49Mark Carney to deliver things that are
19:50useful for the American people. In fact,
19:52even if Mark Carney didn't want to
19:54retaliate, probably Trump has changed
19:58the political calculus so sharply and
20:00you I cannot tell cannot emphasize
20:02enough the anger at the United States
20:04north of the border. It's unbelievable.
20:07He's made it so that that anger almost
20:10forces Mark Carney to retaliate thereby
20:13hurting Americans.
20:16>> Exactly.
20:18>> This is this this is no longer about a
20:19trade where this is about and I I think
20:21I wrote you know it's this it is about
20:23the sovereignty stupid. So Mark Carney
20:25did something that a lot of other
20:27countries and institutions have not
20:28done. He stood up. He defied Donald
20:30Trump uh walked away from the
20:32negotiations.
20:33Are are there you know second secondary
20:38effects of that? Are other countries
20:40including among our allies looking at
20:42this and saying [snorts] okay we tried
20:45appeasement we tried to get along. Is
20:48Canada providing another model of how
20:51they should respond to America? I mean
20:53will this have some sort of effect you
20:56think? I mean, how how do the how does
20:58the rest of the world look at what what
21:00what's going on here, including their
21:02willingness to make deals with a country
21:05that writes them in pencil, apparently,
21:07as Carney said.
21:09>> Yeah. So, um, I can see how folks who
21:13spend a lot of their day railing against
21:15the president, I'm not talking about
21:17anyone on this call, Charlie, might be
21:20kind of happy to see someone sort of,
21:23you know, get after him. It's not
21:27obvious to me this serves the Canadian
21:28people well.
21:30>> Um, and ultimately that's who Mark
21:33Carney should care about. Um there's an
21:36old saying uh attributed sometimes to
21:39William Beverage, sometimes to Joan
21:41Robinson, which is just if other
21:44countries have rocky harbors, does that
21:47mean you should put rocks in your own
21:48harbor? Let me explain.
21:50>> The tariff is like having a rocky
21:52harbor. It makes it harder for goods to
21:53get in and out of the country.
21:56>> Just because someone else has that, do
21:57you think it's better to make it harder
21:59for goods to get in and out of your
22:00country? And I think the answer is quite
22:02obviously no. So that's the logic that
22:04says retaliation
22:06is a bad idea. It actually hurts
22:08Canadians. Let me try and say it another
22:09way. What a tariff, what trade does is
22:12it creates cooperation, say between
22:14Canadians and Americans, thereby making
22:16the folks involved in that trade better
22:18off. The moment you add friction, what
22:21you're doing through tariffs, whether
22:22it's American tariffs or Canadian
22:24tariffs, is you're reducing that
22:26cooperation and both sides lose. In
22:29American political discourse, we spend a
22:30lot of time making the case that
22:32American consumers lose from American
22:34tariffs, and that's true,
22:36>> but so do foreign producers because
22:38they're either cutting their prices,
22:40which they're not doing, or they're not
22:41selling as much stuff to Americans. It
22:43hurts both sides. And so the argu and so
22:48facing Trump off in a retaliation cycle
22:51basically mean Trump if you're thinking
22:54about this as a boxing match can punch
22:55Canada but the only way he can do that
22:57is by also punching Americans in the
22:58guts.
22:59>> Mhm.
23:01>> Carney if he wants to retaliate with
23:03trade can punch Trump but the only way
23:05he can do that is by punching Canadians
23:07in the guts.
23:09Given
23:11the extent to which the president
23:12appears to care about the American
23:13people and comparing that to the extent
23:15to which Mark Carney might care about
23:17the Canadian people, who do you think
23:18has a bigger is more likely to tolerate
23:22punching his own people in the guts?
23:24Trump or Carney?
23:27I think this is just the sort of battle
23:29where Canadians lose on their Canadians
23:31lose because retaliation is
23:32intrinsically unhelpful. And I think
23:35winning the idea of winning the
23:36staredown should only become relevant if
23:39you think you can care less about the
23:41pain you inflict on your own people than
23:42the president cares. And that's a very
23:44big argument.
23:45>> But but you explained though earlier why
23:48this is in a different category because
23:51if this was simply a trade dispute,
23:53economic dispute, right,
23:55>> that argument would would would be
23:57central. But as you pointed out earlier,
24:00it's no longer a trade dispute, economic
24:02dispute. It is about dignity. It is
24:05about, you know, self-determination. It
24:07is about sovereignty. And so, as a
24:09result of that, I do think that that the
24:12Canadians are more supportive of their
24:14prime minister. They they have a a
24:17greater capacity to absorb the hurt. And
24:19you know what what I said on this
24:21interview, and I it's easy for me, you
24:22know, to say this, yeah, this is going
24:24to be very costly. You know, defying
24:26Trump um will, you know, carry a a very
24:29significant cost. But sometimes the
24:32value is more important than the cost.
24:35And sometimes it is worth it to stand up
24:37to a bully or to stand up for those
24:39fundamental principles. So [snorts] one
24:41of the things that he's done is he has
24:44shifted this from this strictly trade
24:48issue to something much larger. Which is
24:50why I I don't think I I I do think that
24:54what Carney is doing is in the interest
24:56of the Canadians very long term. The
24:59short-term pain is going to be
25:00considerable though.
25:02>> Yeah, I think you're absolutely right to
25:04say that because of the way this has
25:05been framed, the Canadians have a great
25:07deal of willingness to put up with pain.
25:09>> Yes.
25:09>> In fact, I've been trying to do some
25:11work on this. I don't quite have numbers
25:13for you yet. I think there's a
25:15reasonable case to be made that more
25:18important than the tariffs that Carney
25:20implies
25:21is Canadians going to the supermarket
25:23and refusing to buy American.
25:24>> Yeah.
25:25>> So, they're actually signing up for this
25:26war. Put me in coach. I want to go.
25:30>> They're not coming here. They're not
25:31coming here as tourists either. They're
25:32not spending money.
25:33>> They're not sending students here
25:34either.
25:35>> Ways. Yeah.
25:36>> Right. Right. Look, let me come back and
25:38answer your question. I'm an economist,
25:40so I'm not going to tell you what's
25:42principled and what your values are.
25:44>> I mean, I'm not against principles. I'm
25:45not against values. I just
25:47>> we'll leave you to articulate yours.
25:48>> You asked, what do we learn from this?
25:50Well, so far, Canada hasn't gained
25:52anything out of this, right? So, it's
25:54not gotten a better deal. the Canadians
25:56might feel a certain dignity, but I
25:58don't think there's a clear lesson to
25:59everyone else. Stand up to the
26:00president, you'll come out on top.
26:02>> Maybe what you learn is stand up to the
26:04president and you'll be okay. Um the
26:08pain won't be too bad.
26:10>> In terms of things that really do move
26:12the economic dial, I think actually
26:15Carney's middle powers speech was far
26:17more important. Um this is Canada versus
26:20the US is one bilateral
26:23>> uh trade flow. The idea of there being
26:27middle powers who can act collectively
26:29in their general best interest. It
26:31hasn't yielded anything yet, but it may
26:34actually cause ultimately a rewiring of
26:36global power, global trade in ways that
26:40bypass the United States. um suggesting
26:43that the president is selling American
26:45exceptionalism
26:47very cheaply.
26:49>> No. And I think you're speaking of the
26:50the speech he gave at Davos and and I I
26:53think I I think we're going to look back
26:54on that maybe even 50 years from now and
26:56see that as a real turning point in uh
26:59the new new order, the post new world
27:01order. Okay. So, speaking about rewiring
27:04international relations, um this is
27:07unclear to me by the way how this is
27:09playing out. Trump is claiming over the
27:11weekend that he is now cutting this deal
27:13essentially to seize Venezuelan oil. We
27:15know we know what the story is. They
27:17they had this lightning raid. They
27:19[clears throat] toppled um you know,
27:21President Maduro left his regime in
27:23power through the Democratic opposition
27:26under the bus and are now saying that
27:30the US government is going to take a
27:33massive ownership in Venezuelan oil,
27:37which I don't know if uh Barack Obama
27:41was doing that. I think we might call
27:42that socialist or communist. But just
27:44give me your sense. So the United
27:45States, its new imperialist power, has
27:48just gobbled up the oil of what [snorts]
27:50used to be an independent country.
27:52What's happening there?
27:54>> Yeah. So this is a story that got layer
27:57lost in sort of many layers of detail
27:59and the newspaper reporting is all so
28:01careful it forgets a basic fact,
28:03>> right?
28:03>> The basic fact is the oil belongs to the
28:07Venezuelan people.
28:10>> We killed their leader, kept in power
28:13leader. He's He's still alive.
28:15>> Oh, yeah. Yeah. We We killed other
28:17people's leaders, but Maduro's in a
28:19prison somewhere. But
28:20>> it's hard to keep track of who's alive
28:21these days.
28:23>> Well, we kill so many people. It is. You
28:25kind of got to sort out the, you know,
28:26sort out the bodies at some point. But
28:28anyway, so we we toppled their leader.
28:30>> Okay. So, we toppled their leader, left
28:33the new bloke.
28:36They haven't had elections. They haven't
28:38moved on to elections. It's a US
28:39installed puppet
28:42>> and that [clears throat] puppet just
28:43signed over
28:47their oil.
28:48>> Billions of dollars from
28:50>> a gun at her head obviously,
28:52>> right? This by any measure is theft.
28:57One of my disappointments watching the
28:59news about this is we've all used words
29:01like imperialism, socialism,
29:03nationalism, all the isms. It's not.
29:04It's stealing. It's their oil. The
29:08Venezuelan people did not consent.
29:10The democratically elected leaders did
29:12not consent because they don't have
29:14democratically elected leaders as I
29:16understand it. And I am not in fact I
29:17know this will surprise you. I'm not in
29:18fact a Venezuelan constitutional
29:20scholar. But I believe that the
29:23constitution actually says the oil
29:25belongs to the people and cannot the oil
29:27rights cannot be given away this way.
29:29Even if it didn't, it doesn't matter.
29:31It's utterly clear
29:34the Venezuelans are sitting on some oil.
29:36We toppled their leader and told the
29:39next leader, "Give us your oil." Now,
29:42that's just not a thing people do. They
29:44don't just walk around say, "Would you
29:46like a few million barrels of oil?" It's
29:48just it doesn't even make any sense.
29:52>> That's gangster economics. It's it is
29:54pure theft. How does they How do we get
29:56away with it? How does Donald Trump get
29:58away with just in broad daylight
30:01just coming in gangster like stealing a
30:05country's natural resources because we
30:08have the biggest military in the world.
30:11>> It's not persuasive.
30:13>> Um, look, let me come back and tell you
30:17why this troubles me. As a kid growing
30:20up, I would watch movies like Rocky 3.
30:22No, it was Rocky 4
30:25where um Sylvester Stallone was fighting
30:28the Russian
30:30uh forget the guy's name. Was Dolph
30:32London, I think.
30:34>> Big tall guy.
30:35>> Mhm.
30:35>> Um
30:37and I was a young Aussie.
30:40>> Mhm.
30:41>> Cheered for Sylvester Stallion's
30:44character because I knew that America
30:46was the good guys.
30:49And even today, I have a tendency to do
30:52that. And no matter what happens on the
30:54world stage, if it's something that
30:55Putin does, I'm like, "Did he just steal
30:57that? That's shitty behavior. That's not
30:59how people act. That's bad. He's the bad
31:02guy."
31:04This is just a we can talk about the
31:07economics all day, but at the end of the
31:09day, nothing's more important than the
31:10moral judgment,
31:12which is is it okay for the military of
31:15the richest country in the world to
31:17issue threats
31:19that lead that rich country to take
31:23millions of barrels of oil from one of
31:24the poorest countries in the world.
31:27So theft,
31:29I was always taught it's not okay. And I
31:31just believe it deeply in my bones. And
31:33if we are engaged in that, then just
31:36think about how this works. Every
31:37country around the world now has to be
31:38scared they're going to get picked off
31:39by this big military power
31:42>> unless they have nuclear weapons,
31:45>> right? Which case, time to start mining
31:48that uranium.
31:50And then the other thing is we're
31:52literally stealing it from the mouths of
31:54the hungry.
31:56You It's immoral beyond theft.
32:02I I I get you might want American gas
32:04prices down, but the way to do it is not
32:06taking the only asset that people in a
32:10deeply destroyed country
32:13have a right to it. Every one of us
32:16should wake up and feel a deep sense of
32:19shame that this is being done without
32:21tax dollars and in our name.
32:25You know, this is a point that Ann
32:27Applebomb has made where um I wish I had
32:30it in front of me where she says, you
32:31know, one of the the the great
32:34casualties of this will be how Americans
32:36think of themselves because we are used
32:39to thinking of ourselves as the good
32:41guys and now we're saying, well, wait,
32:43are we a gangster country? Are we the
32:46baddies? Are we now are we a force for
32:49good in the world? Are we this this
32:53arsenal of democracy or are we this now
32:56vast arsenal of lararseny and this the
33:00there there's going to be an effect
33:02again on how the rest of the world sees
33:05us but also how Americans see ourselves
33:08and I don't know how that plays out but
33:10I think she's right to say that this is
33:12going to be a very this is a very
33:14dramatic challenge to this to the
33:18American idea and identity.
33:20I I agree deeply. Um when you listen to
33:24the rhetoric coming out of the White
33:25House increasingly, you hear this from
33:28uh Steven Miller in particular, from the
33:30president, from JD Vance,
33:32>> it's an argument that might is right.
33:35>> We can, therefore, we should. Literally,
33:38that's what they say. I mean, they say
33:40the iron law of history is that the
33:42strong will impose their will on the
33:45weak. And Steven Miller said that. I
33:47think he said that in the context of
33:48taking over Greenland. I'm sorry. But
33:50yeah, this is something they believe
33:52deeply interacting on.
33:55>> And
33:57it's worth pausing on one of the things
33:58I like about you, Charlie, is your pause
34:00on the point, which is that's an ethical
34:02claim.
34:03>> Mhm.
34:04>> You should sit with it. And if you're
34:06religious, you should sit with it in
34:07church. And if you're not sit with it
34:09with your family, let me give a very
34:12simple
34:13metaphor. I walk past my dog every day.
34:17I don't kick him. I could. He's old,
34:22but it would be wrong.
34:27Might's not right.
34:30Might is a statement about how the world
34:31is. I could do this. What's right is
34:35what you choose to do.
34:37It's the standards you live up to. I'm
34:40not a guy who's ever going to kick a
34:41dog, and I'm not a guy who's going to
34:42steal oil from poor people.
34:44You know, the fact that we even have to
34:46discuss whether or not right and wrong
34:47is relevant any longer is an indication
34:49of how far we've we've come. Because I
34:52will I will tell you that conservatives
34:55used to take it for granted that there
34:57were things that were right and there
34:59were things that were wrong. It was kind
35:01of that fundamental sense. And speaking
35:04of kicking dogs, just so you know, I
35:05have a dog literally underneath.
35:07>> Don't kick him. Make the right choice.
35:10>> Well, well, he's kicking me right now.
35:11just just so you know but but but again
35:14that's a good analogy because we have
35:17the right and the ability to do many
35:19many things and if you become rich and
35:22powerful you have the ability to do more
35:25things. So the question is what is the
35:27limiting factor? It is the law but it
35:31was also some some internalized sense of
35:33right and wrong and you know if we are
35:36in the process of dismantling that we
35:38have lost something really really
35:40fundamental and we've really gone down a
35:41dark thing here but I but I'm glad that
35:43you pointed out that what's happening in
35:45Venezuela it feels like a throwback to
35:48the not even the 20 well the 19th
35:51century of just going in and grabbing
35:54what you can grab and um again the rest
35:58of the world is is watching that. I'm
35:59sure the Chinese are watching that. I'm
36:01sure Vladimir Putin is watching that.
36:03And when America denounces other
36:06countries for engaging in the same
36:08behavior, will we have any standing
36:10whatsoever? Or will we denounce it at
36:13all? At least in the Trump era.
36:16>> Yeah. I I want to give the audience a
36:18little bit of background here because if
36:20you and I had been having this
36:21conversation 20 years ago, um first of
36:24all, your hair wouldn't be so gray. my
36:26temples wouldn't be so bold.
36:29>> Um, but you came from a conservative
36:31tradition and you would have said some
36:32words about right and wrong and I come
36:35from a liberal tradition and I would
36:36have been like could you conservatives
36:38get off my goddamn case
36:44about exceptionalism too. Yeah,
36:46>> I would have I want to give people the
36:49space to
36:51There are many moralities.
36:53>> Mhm.
36:53>> Some people believe that homosexuality
36:55is a sin. Some people do not. Um, and if
36:59you wanted to outlaw it because of your
37:00Bible, I would have said, "It's not a
37:03problem in my Bible. Leave people
37:04alone." And so we would have had
37:06>> this argument.
37:09>> I love that about you. Um,
37:12>> but I wouldn't have been in the public
37:14square wanting to talk about morality. I
37:16was deeply uncomfortable with it.
37:20um things like how do we reconcile
37:22different views from different churches
37:24about the morality of homosexuality?
37:26These are complex. They're personal.
37:27They're hard. Should you kick dogs and
37:31should you steal oil from poor people
37:34and not? And so what you have here,
37:37Charlie, is a recovering conservative
37:38and a recovering liberal
37:41>> who are screaming not what your morality
37:44should be. I think that's the important
37:45thing. Neither is I believe. I hope
37:48we're not telling you what you have to
37:49believe. We're just asking you to have a
37:51think.
37:52>> No, I'm I'm telling you that No, I'm I'm
37:54willing to go a little bit further. I'm
37:56telling you that you should It is wrong
37:57to be kicking the defenseless dog. It is
38:00wrong to steal things from the mouths of
38:02poor people. That is wrong. There are
38:05certain things that, you know, frankly,
38:07whatever you want to do or you can do.
38:09No, I'm I'm sorry. I I have see I don't
38:11I still have that residual I don't have
38:14a problem saying that that there there
38:16is there is good and there is evil. Um
38:19and I think that we're seeing it play it
38:21out. We're also seeing the dangers of
38:22forgetting that there are those
38:24standards because you know basically I
38:26think it was who was it GK Chesterton
38:28who said that when people stop believing
38:29in God the problem is that is not that
38:31they become atheists. It's the problem
38:32is that once you stop believing in God
38:34you start believing in everything else.
38:35You look for other forms of of morality
38:38which are not morality at all. And so
38:41maybe you know Donald but again but
38:43again period where conservatives used to
38:46say the character matters. Do you
38:47remember that? Remember that whole era
38:49character matters and now is in the
38:51Trump era it's like yeah not so much.
38:54>> Now I think character matters.
38:56>> Exactly. Because it does.
38:58>> We're not going to get through all the
38:58economics on this because it's
39:01important. This is a really fruitful
39:02conversation and I love it and I love
39:04you for it. [clears throat]
39:05>> Um I'm not religious.
39:08>> I don't have a god.
39:10I hope you [clears throat] can respect
39:11me anyway. That's part of the reason why
39:13I'm a little bit
39:16I find it harder to get to the morals
39:18party, but I'm a moral person. I if you
39:23and one of the reason you're saying I
39:24need to tell people this evil, don't do
39:26it. And I'm like, I just want them to
39:27think about it. And I'm pretty sure if
39:29they're people of good conscience, and
39:31nearly everyone is, once they have a bit
39:33of a think, yeah, should I steal oil
39:34from poor people in Venezuela?
39:37Probably not.
39:39Um, I don't need a religion to validate
39:43that. I need to have a sit and a think
39:46about what matters and who I want to be
39:47and the role I want to play in the
39:49world.
39:50>> I do. No, I I actually do respect that.
39:52However, I would point out you may not
39:54believe in God, but God believes in you
39:55and I think he's working on you.
39:57>> I think he's working on you. I'm just
39:59I'm just warning you that might get
40:01worse. Okay, we only have a few more
40:02minutes left. Um, and this this feels
40:05like now we we've really gone. This has
40:07been profound. Um, you've written about
40:10what's going on with the Census Bureau.
40:12This has not been on my radar screen,
40:14but I've seen what you have done, and it
40:16is amazing because we see these
40:19institutions under assault. We've seen
40:22the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which I
40:24thought was going to be in shitified,
40:26appears to be holding uh holding firm.
40:29But what happened with the Census
40:31Bureau, and why should we be concerned
40:33about it?
40:34>> Yeah. So this is the biggest story no
40:35one's telling.
40:36>> Yeah.
40:37>> Left to the nerds to talk about it. So
40:39the Census Bureau released a report that
40:42was allegedly a report on the number of
40:44nonitizens who voted in the 2020
40:46election.
40:47>> Um now of course it's illegal for
40:49non-citizens to vote.
40:51>> The report claims to have found 24,000
40:54non-citizens who voted. Now I I just
40:57want to point out a few things. The
40:58Census Bureau has never waited into an
41:00issue like that before.
41:01>> Right? It's not their job,
41:03>> right? This Census Bureau report,
41:06they're all signed by an author. This
41:08one is not. They all come as part of a
41:10publication series like P20-53.
41:13This one is not. They're all reviewed
41:15and the reviewers are named. This one
41:17has no reviewers. The Census Bureau
41:20invites expert statisticians to critique
41:23their work and they're honest about the
41:26shortcomings. No statistic is ever
41:28perfect. It always comes with
41:29uncertainty. And the job of a
41:31statistitian is to be relentlessly
41:32honest about that. That's not true in
41:34this report. In fact, everything in this
41:37report, so I I wrote a long piece for
41:39Platypus Economics, the on our Substack,
41:41and I did a video where I point out that
41:45basically
41:47when you're searching for rare events,
41:49the rare event here would be voter
41:51fraud.
41:53If there's even a tiny amount of
41:54measurement error, those errors can
41:57swamp the tiny amount of the rare thing
41:59you're looking for, leading you to
42:02wrongly believe there's a lot of bad
42:04behavior out there. Okay, that's and I
42:07go into a great deal of detail literally
42:09illustrating how that fully explains the
42:12Census Bureau's estimate. Now,
42:15everything that I've said is completely
42:17obvious to serious statisticians. Yeah,
42:20>> the Census Bureau put this out anyway
42:22and it anyone inside the building
42:24understands the problem. So what's
42:26happened here is the Census Bureau has
42:27literally been co-opted as an arm of
42:30propaganda. It has released for the
42:32first time in its long history,
42:33literally the first time an indefensible
42:37statistical analysis in the furtherance
42:39of
42:41the political interests of the ruling
42:42party.
42:43>> There's a big
42:44>> the way this happened, no one in the
42:45Census Bureau would do this work. the
42:48Census Bureau director who's an acting
42:50director, a political appointee. By the
42:51way, the law says that the Census Bureau
42:53director has to be Senate confirmed, has
42:55to be a serious statistician, and has to
42:57have management experience. Well, the
42:59last one resigned and they haven't
43:01appointed new one. So, they put a new B
43:02in who's acting who's a partisan. In
43:04fact, a partisan hack, someone who
43:06doesn't understand statistics well,
43:08someone with no management experience,
43:10and someone who's a a red hat wearer.
43:13>> Great.
43:14>> And he has brought in analysts. And to
43:17be clear, that's in the biggest scare
43:19quotes you've ever seen
43:21from a partisan hack right-wing advocacy
43:24organization
43:26who walked into the Census Bureau, typed
43:28up this nonsense, and then told the
43:29Census Bureau to stick its logo on the
43:32front and pretend that this is real.
43:35>> So far, I probably sound like an upset
43:37nerd worried about his Census Bureau.
43:39So, let me try to simplify it.
43:42>> Our source of truth is the Census
43:45Bureau.
43:46It has just been for the first time in
43:48its life
43:50put in service of propaganda.
43:54Facts,
43:56truth are no longer its guiding light.
44:01I think most of the work the Census
44:02Bureau does is excellent.
44:05But the Census Bureau director has just
44:07destroyed this
44:09>> a centurylong reputation for truth.
44:13>> You and I already pay for all the work
44:14they're doing. But now instead of using
44:16it, we have to ask ourselves, is it
44:20This is to use a Charlie Sychism and
44:23shitification. But it's worse than that
44:27because this is the stuff of tinpot
44:29dictatorships.
44:30>> Yeah,
44:30>> Stalin rigged the numbers so they said
44:33what he wanted. The Argentinians rigged
44:36the numbers so they can get reelected.
44:38The Greeks rigged the numbers and got a
44:40finan a fiscal crisis out of it.
44:43There is no country
44:46that has ever done this where it's
44:47ended. Well, the list of countries we've
44:51just joined
44:53is a list you don't want to be a part
44:55of.
44:56So,
45:00I am struggling to tell you why I'm so
45:02upset. So, I'm going to answer a 100,000
45:04questions from you, Charlie, but
45:06I think I think you have Yeah, you have
45:09explained and Yeah. Go on.
45:13Yeah. Well, if it's if it's the Census
45:15Bureau, then you think what happens when
45:18they do this with the Bureau of Labor
45:20Statistics, when the Treasury Department
45:22does this, when all of these other
45:24agencies, you know, allow themselves to
45:27be co-opted by propaganda, then then the
45:30credibility of all that information, and
45:32frankly, the credibility of the American
45:34economy is is suddenly in in question
45:37because then no one can rely on any of
45:40this, right? and you've understated the
45:42problem. It's even worse.
45:44>> Okay,
45:45>> the Census Bureau, the census is in the
45:48Constitution.
45:50>> It's how we decide which states get how
45:52many congressional representatives.
45:54If we have a Census Bureau prepared to
45:56lie about whether there was voter fraud
45:59in the 2020 election,
46:02can we believe the next
46:06aortionment of congressional seats?
46:09And if we can't and you live in one of
46:12the areas that is effectively being
46:15disenfranchised by whatever might be the
46:17next set of Census Bureau lies, what's
46:20the response?
46:24We had constitutional conventions and we
46:26had wars
46:28setting up this institutional framework
46:31and it's set up so that we never have to
46:33fight about it again.
46:37At its heart, it requires one person,
46:39the Census Bureau director, to do his
46:42job and tell the truth.
46:48>> I'm cranky. Sorry, mate. I'm going to
46:49have a bit of
46:50>> Well, and and I am now officially
46:52alarmed about this. And by the way, I
46:54will I will post a link to uh to
46:56Justin's piece uh in the in the
46:58newsletter uh tomorrow. So, just, you
47:00know, look look for that. Justin
47:02Wolfers, we have covered an awful lot of
47:04ground, more ground than I think that we
47:06were expecting to cover. And you know, I
47:08didn't swallow a fly, which I think is
47:10is positive. You know, my dog didn't
47:12just disrupt it. So, this I consider
47:14this a a success. Plus, I actually feel
47:17both more alarmed and and smarter. So,
47:19thank you for for all your time today.
47:22>> Will I have good news next time,
47:23Charlie?
47:24>> I hope so. Although, I'm skeptical about
47:27that. When have you had good news? I'm
47:29just When was the last time you actually
47:30had good news? Well, you and I usually
47:32don't talk when there's good news,
47:33right? Usually there's some bad news
47:35which is like, you know,
47:36>> I believe deeply in
47:39either cut this or don't, but I believe
47:41deeply in waking up every day and having
47:43hope and waking up every day and seeing
47:45the beauty around us. And you and I
47:47right now are focused on the mess in
47:49Washington. But but I'll tell you some
47:50other things that happened today. I woke
47:52up and saw the most spectacular sunrise.
47:54I woke up and I saw two of the most
47:56beautiful children in the world. I woke
47:59up and my dear old dog is still alive
48:01and he's about 400 years old. I woke up
48:05and had a fascinating conversation with
48:06a really interesting bloke where we we
48:08went deep. What a beautiful world we
48:11live in. What a beautiful moment. So all
48:14of that beauty is around us and we're
48:16driven by this innate human desire to
48:18make it even better. And that's why we
48:21argue.
48:23>> How's that?
48:23>> And I'm I'm definitely not going to cut
48:25that. Definitely not. Thank you all for
48:28listening to this episode of To the
48:29Contrary podcast. You know why we do
48:31this. You just heard why we do this.
48:33Because we have to have hope and remind
48:36ourselves that we [music] are not the
48:38crazy ones. Thank you.
48:49>> [music]

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