Will the Next 5 years be GREAT for Indian Markets? | Akshat Shrivastava — Transcript

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1. 0:05Hey guys, so all of us are told that if
2. 0:07we invest our money regularly into
3. 0:10high-quality companies, we will always
4. 0:12make money, right? This is a very
5. 0:13common-sensical thing, and we are also
6. 0:15told that okay, if you are using a
7. 0:17company's product, for example, Nestle,
8. 0:20HUL, HDFC Bank, etc. And if you're
9. 0:22buying these type of stocks, you'll
10. 0:23always make money. But has this really
11. 0:25worked out, right? So, let's backtest
12. 0:27it, right? And I'll give you two
13. 0:28choices. Choice number one is that if 5
14. 0:30years ago you go and decide and you had,
15. 0:33let's say, uh 10 lakh rupees. So, you
16. 0:35pick that 10 lakh rupees, you simply
17. 0:37convert it into US dollar, just convert
18. 0:39it, not invest in Google, Meta,
19. 0:41whatever, okay? Just convert that INR
20. 0:43into US dollar and keep it, okay? And
21. 0:45your choice number two was that you go
22. 0:47and buy Nifty 50 companies. Now, which
23. 0:50choice do you think gave you more
24. 0:52returns? The answer is that if you would
25. 0:55have simply converted your INR into US
26. 0:57dollar, you would have made more money.
27. 1:00Now, this is insane. It It If you think
28. 1:02about it,
29. 1:03this will blow your mind because this
30. 1:04violates pretty much every single
31. 1:06principle of investing you might have
32. 1:07learned, okay? Now, question number two
33. 1:10would come that okay, maybe you're just
34. 1:11picking like a one random period, 5
35. 1:13year, okay? So, here is a chart, right?
36. 1:14And this shows the Nifty 50 returns on 1
37. 1:18year, 3 year, 5 year, 10 year basis. Uh
38. 1:21please do not say that show like 30 or
39. 1:2240 year basis, okay? So, if you look at
40. 1:25this chart, again you will start
41. 1:26witnessing that if you convert Nifty 50
42. 1:29returns into US dollars because you
43. 1:31can't compare Nasdaq or S&P 500 returns
44. 1:33in US dollar and keep India returns in
45. 1:35INR. You are comparing two different
46. 1:37timelines altogether. So, either convert
47. 1:39INR into USD or USD into INR. So, if you
48. 1:42make that correction, this is the data
49. 1:45point, right? And what you would notice
50. 1:47is that Nifty 50 has not only
51. 1:49underperformed the American index, it
52. 1:52has performed underperformed gold, it
53. 1:53has underperformed silver, and a bunch
54. 1:56of other asset classes, okay? So, this
55. 1:58is not very healthy, right? And this
56. 1:59will make you a little bit sad key boss,
57. 2:01you know, I've been running like my SIPs
58. 2:03and results are not coming. Uh so, what
59. 2:05is it that I should do? Should I just
60. 2:06give up on the market? The answer is no,
61. 2:08you should not, right? Listen to this
62. 2:09video. On this video, I'll give you like
63. 2:11a structure to think about things,
64. 2:13right? So that you understand the risk,
65. 2:14you understand the rewards. I'll speak
66. 2:17in five or six simple points, and let's
67. 2:19start. And the first natural question
68. 2:20comes here is that, okay, Nifty has had
69. 2:22a really bad cycle. Will it revert?
70. 2:25Right? Now, reversion comes on two
71. 2:27simple topics. Number one is that how
72. 2:30fast the index can possibly grow. And
73. 2:32number two, what is the valuation like?
74. 2:34So, let us first study the valuation.
75. 2:36And for studying the valuation, you can
76. 2:37go on TradingView, right? And here, you
77. 2:40can take a look at this, right? That,
78. 2:42okay, for the last 2 2 and 1/2 years,
79. 2:44if you look at Nifty 50, it has given 0%
80. 2:47returns. You can clearly see this. This
81. 2:48is 2024 mid, okay?
82. 2:51So, 2 and 1/2 years, 0% returns.
83. 2:53But, because we have to convert returns
84. 2:55into US dollar, right? And US dollar is
85. 2:58the benchmark that we are looking at, or
86. 3:00you convert S&P into INR, okay? One and
87. 3:01the same thing. So, then this returns
88. 3:03actually is like minus 20%, okay?
89. 3:05Because in the last 2 and 1/2 3 years,
90. 3:07INR has depreciated by at least , okay?
91. 3:10So, this will Nifty 50 has actually
92. 3:12given minus 15 to minus 20% in the last
93. 3:153 years. This is really bad. This hurts
94. 3:17us. And a natural assumption people make
95. 3:20is that, hey, there will be mean
96. 3:22reversion. Now, what is the meaning of
97. 3:23mean reversion? Mean reversion means,
98. 3:25for example, if you pick this cycle,
99. 3:27okay? 2022 to 2024, again, Nifty gave
100. 3:30like zero returns, and then it gave a
101. 3:32run-up. Here, it has given like zero
102. 3:34returns, so maybe it will give a run-up.
103. 3:35Will it give a run-up? I don't know,
104. 3:37okay? But, what I can explain you are
105. 3:39two central points, right? Number one
106. 3:41point is the valuation, and number two
107. 3:43point is the concept of mean reversion,
108. 3:46okay?
109. 3:47Okay. So, let me teach both these
110. 3:49points. And the first key point is
111. 3:50around valuation. Now, see, valuation
112. 3:52may the thing is that valuation we
113. 3:54typically judge by using PE ratio. Now
114. 3:56right now the PE ratio of Nifty 50 is
115. 3:58somewhere around 19 or 20.
116. 4:01Now compared to its own history, own
117. 4:04history of Nifty 50, this ratio is cheap
118. 4:07and people are therefore saying that
119. 4:09Nifty will revert, okay? And we will
120. 4:10have like we used to have like a PE of
121. 4:1223, 24, but now it is at 20. So
122. 4:15therefore this is good and earnings can
123. 4:17also expand, so this is good news. And
124. 4:19therefore there is a very good
125. 4:21probability that we will go up, right?
126. 4:22So this is scenario one. But this is in
127. 4:25absolute terms, okay? So this is this we
128. 4:27are comparing Nifty to its own historic
129. 4:30PE average. But if you do a relative
130. 4:33comparison of this 20 PE, right? Now
131. 4:35relatively how will we compare it? We'll
132. 4:36go to QQQ, we'll go to other major
133. 4:39indices and check. So for example, if
134. 4:41you look at S&P 500 PE ratio, right? It
135. 4:43is again around 19, 20, okay? So this is
136. 4:45the forward PE of S&P 500. So compared
137. 4:48relative terms, Nifty 50 is not cheap,
138. 4:50okay? So therefore we cannot say that
139. 4:52valuations are deeply discounted, okay?
140. 4:54Uh but yes, good news for investors here
141. 4:57is that see boss, right? A very
142. 4:59important zone has been made. We are
143. 5:01trading towards the low end of this
144. 5:03zone. So long story short, right? The
145. 5:04downside risk on Nifty 50 is fairly low.
146. 5:08Now this is not applicable for mid cap,
147. 5:09small cap. Mid cap and small cap have
148. 5:11very high dilution. Dilution means that
149. 5:14a lot of promoters come and chip go buy
150. 5:15their companies and then they exit. So
151. 5:17that dilution risk is much, much higher
152. 5:19on small and mid caps and that is the
153. 5:21reason why I'm still not betting on mid
154. 5:22caps and small caps. I if I have to pick
155. 5:25something in the Indian market right
156. 5:26now, I would rather stick to Nifty 50,
157. 5:28right? Large cap companies, some high
158. 5:30quality large cap, that's it, okay?
159. 5:32Because the structural risk on the
160. 5:34economy is very high, which I will
161. 5:35explain in a minute, okay? Now okay,
162. 5:38uh now let me quickly explain the
163. 5:39concept number two, which is called as
164. 5:40the concept of mean reversion. Mean
165. 5:42reversion is very simple, okay? So mean
166. 5:43reversion simply means that you You This
167. 5:45is like you know, Nifty went up, down,
168. 5:47up, down, up, down, right? And um
169. 5:50basically, whatever comes up goes down,
170. 5:52and whatever goes down comes up. So,
171. 5:54last 2-3 years have been bad, and let's
172. 5:56say Nifty will typically grow like this.
173. 5:58So, right now we are in this phase,
174. 5:59right? We are somewhere here. So, it
175. 6:00will go up, right? And this is what we
176. 6:02are trying to capture. So, this is the
177. 6:03concept of mean reversion. But again,
178. 6:06you have to look at this in a relative
179. 6:08manner, okay? Now, uh we'll study 2-3
180. 6:11zones, right? So, let's study 2008,
181. 6:13right? Let's study 2020, right? 2020,
182. 6:16all right? And let's study the current
183. 6:18phase, 2024 to 2026, right? Now, see,
184. 6:21what happened in 2008 was that the
185. 6:23American market went down like this,
186. 6:24right? And it went up like this. Indian
187. 6:27market went down like this, went up like
188. 6:28this, right? 2020, again our markets
189. 6:30were at 12,500, they went to 7,500, came
190. 6:33back up. Uh American market, S&P 500,
191. 6:36also exhibited correction, it went up,
192. 6:37okay? 2024, 2020-2026, this phase, what
193. 6:40is happening, okay? This is where
194. 6:42insights come into the picture, okay? Is
195. 6:44that okay? Our market has gone down like
196. 6:46this, okay? American market is still up,
197. 6:48okay? And it has been doing well. That's
198. 6:50the insight, okay? And this is where the
199. 6:51structural risk comes into the equation,
200. 6:54because in P/E, right? Or P/E ratio,
201. 6:56right? This is P/E ratio, earnings are
202. 6:58very important, right? If you look at
203. 7:00the American market, right? Companies
204. 7:02like Nvidia, companies like Broadcom,
205. 7:05companies like Meta, companies like
206. 7:07Google, right? They are all growing, all
207. 7:09growing at least 20% plus in dollar
208. 7:12terms. This is insane. There is not,
209. 7:15maybe like very few companies, like I
210. 7:17mean, I don't think that any company has
211. 7:19consistently grown in India except for
212. 7:21maybe Bajaj Finance, at more than 20%
213. 7:23plus dollar cagr, okay? Some of the
214. 7:26largest companies in India, for example,
215. 7:28this would be something like HDFC Bank,
216. 7:31this would be something like Reliance,
217. 7:32this would be something like TCS, this
218. 7:34would be something like ITC, they are
219. 7:36not growing even at half the rate. And
220. 7:38this is where the problem is, and this
221. 7:39is where the structural risk is. And
222. 7:42this is the second key point that you
223. 7:43should know, that earnings in the Indian
224. 7:45market, the quality of earnings is not
225. 7:48that great, okay? So, this is the second
226. 7:51key point that you should know, and this
227. 7:52is a very, very important point, because
228. 7:54this is what would allow you to make a
229. 7:55decision between diversifying your
230. 7:57wealth between India and the US market,
231. 8:00okay? I would really encourage you to
232. 8:01invest in the US market. Now, some of
233. 8:03you would start, uh, you know, throwing
234. 8:05crap at me that, okay, you know, you
235. 8:07talked about HDFC Bank, and you talk
236. 8:09about like this stock or that stock.
237. 8:10Guys, see, overall portfolio, here is my
238. 8:12portfolio. It has done exceptionally
239. 8:14well. Point two, I was probably the only
240. 8:16analyst in India who gave a call that,
241. 8:19"Hey, I'm bearish India 2024." Okay? I
242. 8:21created a community, right? Our US stock
243. 8:23investing community, global investing
244. 8:25community, where I teach global
245. 8:26investing formally. You can check out
246. 8:28the portfolio performance. I give a lot
247. 8:30of useful macro insight, more
248. 8:32importantly, and the most important
249. 8:34point is my money is also invested with
250. 8:36my community, and it's not as if that
251. 8:38I'm just talking and talking and
252. 8:40talking. I am literally putting where my
253. 8:43conviction is. Long story short, in case
254. 8:46you're a serious investor who want to
255. 8:47diversify your wealth, please join that
256. 8:49community, you'll benefit a lot. So,
257. 8:51again, coming back, right, on point
258. 8:52number two, which I'll conclude is,
259. 8:54let's see, from an earnings point of
260. 8:55view, we cannot say that, "Hey, we are
261. 8:56better than the American market." I
262. 8:58don't think so, okay? Valuation point of
263. 9:00view, maybe, right? We are at net net
264. 9:02same par, okay? Now, a side point here,
265. 9:04or point number three, that you need to
266. 9:06understand is that what is it that stock
267. 9:08investors value, right? Now, stock
268. 9:10investors value growth. This is the most
269. 9:13important fundamental point that a new
270. 9:15investor should understand. Now, what is
271. 9:17the meaning of valuing growth? See, you
272. 9:19need to understand that there are
273. 9:20different types of investments in the
274. 9:22world. For example, there are, for
275. 9:24example, your grandparents, parents
276. 9:25might be FD investors. They don't care,
277. 9:27right? They don't care about growth at
278. 9:29all. They don't They are not interested
279. 9:30in equity. What they need is safety,
280. 9:32right? They'll say that, you know, just
281. 9:34tell me where my money is safe. I just
282. 9:36want my principal back with little bit
283. 9:37of interest. FD is a great product for
284. 9:39them. Okay, they are not even interested
285. 9:41in chasing growth. Okay? Now, to equity
286. 9:43investors, because what are we looking
287. 9:45at here? We are looking at Nifty 50,
288. 9:46QQQ, S&P 500. What type of investments
289. 9:49are these? These are equity investments.
290. 9:51Now, we always keep on wondering that
291. 9:52you know what, okay, why is it that FIIs
292. 9:54are not coming back to the Indian
293. 9:55market? What is wrong in the Indian
294. 9:57market? Our finance minister said in the
295. 9:59parliament, "Hey, we are growing like so
296. 10:00fast. Why is it that investors are not
297. 10:02coming into the Indian market?" I'll
298. 10:04tell you why. Okay? Because equity
299. 10:05investors like growth. And they like the
300. 10:08perception of growth. That's even more
301. 10:10important. For example, right now we
302. 10:11have companies like Nvidia, which are
303. 10:13printing 60% earnings. Okay? Which is
304. 10:16insane. There is no single company in
305. 10:18India which has probably done that,
306. 10:20right? A Nifty 50 company in India which
307. 10:21has done that in the last 10 year ever.
308. 10:23Okay? And Nvidia is printing at that
309. 10:26rate, right? So, investors want to chase
310. 10:28that. That's one. Second, they are
311. 10:30driven by a VC mindset. Okay? Now, what
312. 10:33is a VC mindset? For example, you guys
313. 10:34know, right? That okay, the next layer
314. 10:36of major growth will be space
315. 10:38technology. It would be probably drone
316. 10:41technology. It would probably be data
317. 10:44center optimization. It would probably
318. 10:46be, I don't know, some kind of
319. 10:47variables. These are robotics, right?
320. 10:50So, these are the things that will
321. 10:51excite you, right? Now, which companies
322. 10:53in India are building like robotics at
323. 10:54scale, right? Which you think that you
324. 10:56will end up using at your home in the
325. 10:58next 10 years? But, consider Amazon,
326. 11:00right? Now, Amazon has already trained
327. 11:02Alexa. Many of us might be using Alexa
328. 11:05or whatnot. Now, do you think that using
329. 11:07that data they understand like our house
330. 11:09structure, what we do, what we don't do,
331. 11:11etc. They can program their robots
332. 11:13accordingly in case someday they decide
333. 11:14to launch that and all that, right? So,
334. 11:16yes, investors want to chase this,
335. 11:18right? It's not just about having an AI
336. 11:19company these days like, you know, any
337. 11:21like, you know, we will import some
338. 11:22robot from China, stick like a sticker
339. 11:24on that robot and call it like, you
340. 11:26know, AI company in India. That's not
341. 11:27how it goes. It's not like boat. Okay?
342. 11:29So, like take your apne headphones base
343. 11:30here, whatever crap, but there is no
344. 11:32going on, okay? So, long story short,
345. 11:34investors want to invest where the
346. 11:37prospects of growth are. Unfortunately,
347. 11:39it is not there in India, okay? So, if I
348. 11:41have to combine the first three points,
349. 11:43and the key takeaway that I will give is
350. 11:44that if you are a Nifty investor, for
351. 11:46example, I took a swing trade on Nifty
352. 11:49around like maybe 24,200-ish,
353. 11:51right? So, somewhere around this, I have
354. 11:53taken a trade. Unfortunately, it has not
355. 11:55worked so far. Uh for me, I'm okay,
356. 11:57right? I'm okay holding it. Why? Because
357. 11:58I know that there will be a mean
358. 11:59reversion and I'll get an opportunity to
359. 12:01exit. So, at that point in time, if I
360. 12:03want to invest my money into growth
361. 12:05assets, I will definitely do it, okay?
362. 12:07So, this is point number three that you
363. 12:09need to understand that, "Hey, if you
364. 12:10have invested in Nifty 50, nothing to
365. 12:12worry. If you have invested in large
366. 12:14caps, and you are not over invested in
367. 12:16any stock, there is nothing to worry,
368. 12:18right?"
369. 12:18Uh but yes, if you want to chase growth,
370. 12:21you have to go to a better market.
371. 12:23There's unfortunately no option right
372. 12:25now in India. These are the three
373. 12:27combined points that I will tell you. If
374. 12:28you feel stuck in the Indian market, you
375. 12:30should wait for a rally. There is no
376. 12:31point in exiting, okay?
377. 12:33Now comes couple of structural points
378. 12:35that I will try to explain it in very
379. 12:37sensible way because a natural response
380. 12:39would come that, "Okay, fine, you know,
381. 12:40you have made a play that, 'Okay, fine,
382. 12:42you know, US company is doing good. Uh
383. 12:45innovation happening.' But what if like,
384. 12:48you know, India pulls up its socks and
385. 12:50it does something which is which will
386. 12:52truly be amazing, right? Can India do
387. 12:54something like this?" See, guys, I mean,
388. 12:56um we can I will help you understand the
389. 12:58quality structure in a minute, and this
390. 12:59is a tweet that I did, right? Please
391. 13:01read it with an open mind. You will
392. 13:02understand it more. This is a very
393. 13:04important tweet, right? And it went
394. 13:05viral in a way. And here, uh I'll just
395. 13:08go through it so that I can help you
396. 13:10understand the structure of quality
397. 13:12because many of you start discussing
398. 13:14things like that, "Okay, China is also
399. 13:15there. No, China no comes out of town
400. 13:16there there." Guys, see, I mean, that's
401. 13:18the quality of a quality means politics
402. 13:21of China, okay? So, for example, if we
403. 13:23compare US with China with India, right?
404. 13:26Uh this tweet summarizes things, okay?
405. 13:29And basically US is a capitalist
406. 13:30country. Now, what is the meaning of
407. 13:31capitalism? Well, in capitalism you will
408. 13:34have people like Elon Musk who can
409. 13:35become trillionaires, okay?
410. 13:37Trillionaires, okay?
411. 13:39Uh you have like really really rich guys
412. 13:41in the US. Why? Because the gains of
413. 13:43experiment can be privatized, right?
414. 13:45Now, what is the meaning of gains of
415. 13:47experiment? For example, Elon Musk is
416. 13:48taking massive risk, right? In terms of
417. 13:50doing space launches, whatever, right?
418. 13:52If that technology succeeds, he will be
419. 13:54able to keep most of that gains to
420. 13:56himself, okay? And his uh business
421. 13:58owners, right? So, that is the essence
422. 14:01of capitalism. That capitalism you go
423. 14:02out and take like insane levels of risk,
424. 14:04and if you win, then you can get really
425. 14:07really rich. This is a capitalist
426. 14:09structure in the US. It's protected
427. 14:11legally there, okay? I hope that this is
428. 14:14clear. Now, if you don't believe in this
429. 14:15theory, tell me one trillionaire in
430. 14:17China. Just one, okay? Yeah, none. There
431. 14:20are zero people, right? Which are
432. 14:21trillionaires in China, okay? Now, China
433. 14:24is basically a communist country, right?
434. 14:25This is the nature of their politics.
435. 14:27And they are commu- they are
436. 14:28community-based, okay? They do not like
437. 14:31increasing private wealth. That's not
438. 14:33the central goal, right? For example,
439. 14:35for an American company, if you look at
440. 14:37its charter, increasing shareholder
441. 14:40wealth or maximizing shareholder wealth
442. 14:42is the objective of an American
443. 14:44corporation. But that is not the case of
444. 14:46a Chinese corporation. The government
445. 14:49provides infrastructure support to all
446. 14:51the private players, okay?
447. 14:53And the gains are eventually socialized.
448. 14:55And this is the reason why, for example,
449. 14:57Jack Ma, if he becomes too big, some of
450. 14:59his gains will be taken away, right? And
451. 15:00will be distributed in the society in
452. 15:02one way or the other. Now, then you'll
453. 15:03say that, "Okay, this distribution also
454. 15:05happens in a large Lal Londa Yojana,
455. 15:07whatever it is." No, we have a weird
456. 15:09form of socialism, right? And in India
457. 15:11that is called as curated socialism,
458. 15:13okay? Now, what is curated socialism?
459. 15:15Here we basically privatize the gains
460. 15:17and socialize the losses. I can show you
461. 15:19100 different ways, and even this new
462. 15:21UPI thing which is happening, it's kind
463. 15:23of an attempt to that. A lot of idiots
464. 15:25have been, you know, talking smack that,
465. 15:27you know, what? Okay, there is like, you
466. 15:28know, MasterCard, Visa also. You guys
467. 15:29are paying 2% 3% Why can't you pay this?
468. 15:31Like, you know, like, you know, NPCI,
469. 15:33how was it built? Look at it. Like, did
470. 15:34they invest their own money, right, in
471. 15:36terms of building that social
472. 15:37infrastructure or digital
473. 15:38infrastructure, so on and so forth,
474. 15:40okay? Why did public pay the cost of
475. 15:42demonetization? People paid the cost of
476. 15:44demonetization. When you take away that
477. 15:461,000 rupee note, some money printing,
478. 15:48money that was spent on this, it also
479. 15:51got evaporated, right? So, 100 different
480. 15:52points are there that you destroyed
481. 15:54public wealth, and you're kind of
482. 15:55privatizing the gains. How exactly
483. 15:56privatizing the gains? Maybe different
484. 15:58videos, uh but a lot of times you have
485. 15:59seen it, right? Right from telecom that,
486. 16:01okay, BSNL built that telecom, then some
487. 16:03private companies came, took it over.
488. 16:05Same thing is happening on airports.
489. 16:07Same thing is happening on, you know,
490. 16:09even like our space technology,
491. 16:11whatever, right? So, unfortunately, that
492. 16:12is the case, okay? So, in India, you
493. 16:14have basically a K-shaped curve for
494. 16:16investors, right? That, hey, some
495. 16:18companies will do exceptionally well,
496. 16:20okay, which are politically connected,
497. 16:21but you run massive risk. What's the
498. 16:23risk? That, hey, if if the politics
499. 16:25change, okay, these companies will come
500. 16:27down to dramatically, okay? So, that's
501. 16:29the risk that you're taking on as an
502. 16:30investor. There is no structural
503. 16:31investment that you can run, okay? This
504. 16:33is a problem. And companies that get
505. 16:35downgraded, right? They permanently they
506. 16:37get downgraded, right? And they will
507. 16:39just some scam will blow up, and you're
508. 16:40screwed, okay? So, right from like Vijay
509. 16:42Mallya. Now, Vijay Mallya is saying
510. 16:43that, you know, what? Okay, I repaid all
511. 16:45the loans. Kar lo ab investigate, right?
512. 16:46So, that is there. Subrata Roy Sahara.
513. 16:48All these the guys were really really
514. 16:50big, and then suddenly all came down,
515. 16:52okay? So, this is a structural risk you
516. 16:55take because of the nature of quality in
517. 16:57India. I hope this point is clear. This
518. 16:59is point number four. So, okay, so then
519. 17:00comes point number fifth that, okay, if
520. 17:03the long-term growth is not happening in
521. 17:04India, right? I mean, structurally, we
522. 17:06are designed for this financial
523. 17:07repression, then what is it that we
524. 17:09should do, right? This is the last point
525. 17:11that I will speak about that, okay, if
526. 17:13you feel a little bit stuck in the
527. 17:14Indian market, and you don't see like
528. 17:16for the next 5 10 years that, okay,
529. 17:18things are going to change dramatically.
530. 17:21How is it that you should plan your
531. 17:22investment? And there are four steps
532. 17:24that I would suggest. Okay, number one
533. 17:25is very obvious that you go and invest
534. 17:27internationally. It is critical. There
535. 17:29is nothing that should stop you from
536. 17:32investing internationally. It is a
537. 17:34simple process. People who got started
538. 17:36early on this are already seeing massive
539. 17:38gains. You should participate on this
540. 17:40bandwagon. You don't need to trust me on
541. 17:42this. You do your own independent study.
542. 17:44Start with 20% international, 80% India
543. 17:47if you feel very comfortable with India.
544. 17:50And at least move to a 50/50 structure.
545. 17:52This is common sense. If you don't want
546. 17:54to buy individual stocks, it's okay.
547. 17:55Just buy ETFs. Not an issue, okay?
548. 17:58Number two, if you feel that, okay, I'm
549. 18:00not No, I I can't even do that, right?
550. 18:02Then, okay, at least diversify across
551. 18:04asset classes. For every 100 rupees of
552. 18:06equity you buy, at least buy 20 rupees
553. 18:08of gold, okay? Or 20 units of gold. 20
554. 18:11rupees into the gold index, okay?
555. 18:13Uh if you are a big ticket investor, if
556. 18:15you're sitting on, let's say, 1 crore
557. 18:16plus, start looking at some basic real
558. 18:18estate, right? And real estate will be
559. 18:20real estate and you can you know
560. 18:23uh 100 km away from Bangalore something
561. 18:24like that. So, you're going and buying
562. 18:26like at crazy rates. No, that's not the
563. 18:27point. Buy high-quality real estate.
564. 18:29I've already explained multiple times on
565. 18:31my videos that I personally buy villas.
566. 18:33I buy land, right? So, these type of
567. 18:35things you can definitely do. Number
568. 18:37three, please understand this. If you
569. 18:38say that, okay, fine, I don't want to do
570. 18:40international. I don't want to buy
571. 18:41another asset class. Equity value.
572. 18:43Please, for God's sake, please worry
573. 18:46about valuations, okay? Buy only when
574. 18:49valuations are cheap, okay?
575. 18:51For example, if you bought Nifty
576. 18:52somewhere around 24, 24 and 1/2,
577. 18:55that's fine. That was you were buying at
578. 18:57reasonable valuation which were below
579. 18:58its historic average. It's fine, right?
580. 19:01But if you are dumb, right? You bought
581. 19:03it at 26,000 or whatever.
582. 19:05Uh what what am I supposed to tell you,
583. 19:06right? I mean, that's just dumbness,
584. 19:07okay? You just sideline valuation and
585. 19:09you They always have to do that and all
586. 19:11that stuff. Same crap is happening in
587. 19:13mid cap small caps that you know what
588. 19:15they are fund managers on one side they
589. 19:16will say that in order funds should come
590. 19:19together and we should not buy IPO then
591. 19:20they themselves buy it at the back end.
592. 19:22What a good job right tell me just
593. 19:24please do not
594. 19:26do all this. Please study the valuations
595. 19:28a little bit if nothing else. Number
596. 19:30fourth
597. 19:31buy only when risk is low. Now what is
598. 19:33the meaning of this? This is a very
599. 19:34important point that I also learned
600. 19:36fairly recently. See guys you know right
601. 19:38now if you study the geopolitics. For
602. 19:40example Donald Trump has went out and
603. 19:42said my 200% tariff on India
604. 19:44that's structural risk man. All right
605. 19:46there is a lot of structural risk. Try
606. 19:47to participate only in good times when
607. 19:49you have clarity. Even if you have to
608. 19:50buy a little bit higher it's fine. It's
609. 19:52not end of the world but do not buy an
610. 19:54uncertainty phase for a weaker economy.
611. 19:56Right that's what I would get at. I hope
612. 19:58you are guys are able to understand that
613. 20:00hint because if I speak more than I
614. 20:02become anti-national or whatever right
615. 20:03so I don't want to go there but I hope
616. 20:05that these four points that diversify
617. 20:07internationally, diversify across asset
618. 20:09classes, valuation at least cheap you
619. 20:11can buy you can just check history and
620. 20:12number four buy it in a time when the
621. 20:14risk structure is low. Okay. If you do
622. 20:17these four things then you will have a
623. 20:18good time investing.
624. 20:20My push would be that you do
625. 20:21international that's much better because
626. 20:23it gives you more options. But if you
627. 20:24can't do all that then at least keep
628. 20:26these points in mind. It will make you a
629. 20:28much better investor over time. I hope
630. 20:30that you enjoyed this video. If you did
631. 20:31do press the like button. If you like
632. 20:33more of this macro commentary do give me
633. 20:35some feedback and I'll make some more
634. 20:36such videos. Thank you so much watching
635. 20:37and I'll see you soon.