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WIADOMOŚCI ZE ŚWIATA KRYPTOWALUT 02.11.2026 — Transcript

by Phil Konieczny · 8,457 words · 1,304 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:03Hello everyone, Filonieczny here. In
0:05today's video, we will talk about the
0:07most important events that have taken
0:08place in the cryptocurrency world in the
0:10past few days. But as always, before we
0:12begin, please remember that everything
0:14you hear in this video is strictly my
0:17private opinion and is not investment
0:19advice. A short break. I would like to
0:21remind you of the opportunity to join
0:23the VIP zone, thanks to which you will
0:25stay up to date, receive periodic Q&As,
0:27a newsletter with market events, and be
0:29the first to be informed about the
0:31opportunity to join the mentoring
0:33program. You can find the link in the
0:35description of this video below. So
0:37let's get started. Currently, the Market
0:39Cap is $ 2.7 trillion, and it is
0:42slightly down over the last 24 hours, by
0:45about 0.8%.
0:47At the same time, Bitcoin itself rose by
0:490.2%, so overall you could say it's
0:52standing still. Looking at the chart we
0:54see here in the right corner, it is
0:56clearly visible that Bitcoin, after the
0:58drop that occurred in connection with
1:00the Binance exchange hack, which we will
1:03also talk about today, anchored around
1:05the 77,000
1:07dollar mark per coin.
1:10Looking at our Bitcoin chart, we can see
1:12that after the very large growth we had
1:15from the level of $ 20,000 per coin, for
1:17some time now, more or less since the
1:19end of September, Bitcoin has been
1:21experiencing a correction.
1:26It is interesting that this correction
1:28has currently brought us to the level of
1:30the 50-weekly moving average, which is
1:32the level that determines whether we are
1:34in a bull market or a bear market.
1:39And zooming in on this recent time on
1:41the chart, we can clearly see—let's do
1:43it one more time—we clearly see here
1:46that Bitcoin has reached more or less
1:48the vicinity of the 50-weekly moving
1:50average.
1:52It is at the 76,100 level.
1:55At one point, it was even very close to
1:57that level. We just didn't close the
1:59candle at that level.
2:02But we see that after that surge, after
2:04that breakout of Bitcoin above this
2:06moving average, we had a correction that
2:08brought us right to this level.
2:11And an interesting fact is that usually
2:13when we are coming out of a bear market
2:15period and break through the 50-weekly
2:17moving average, we pull back more or
2:19less to that level.
2:21This is something natural in the case of
2:23Bitcoin, or at least we observed it in
2:25the last two cycles.
2:27And it has happened for the third time
2:29in a row. And we can see, for example,
2:31here that when Bitcoin was coming out of
2:34levels around $ 3,000 per coin, it went
2:36to much higher levels exceeding 10,000.
2:39At one point, as far as I remember, we
2:41even had $ 12,000 on Bitcoin, and from
2:44that level, we pulled back right to the
2:46vicinity of the 50-weekly moving average
2:49. And here, well, we were pulled down by
2:51the most famous disease in the world—an
2:53extraordinary event, the shutdown of the
2:56entire world, global paralysis, and then
2:58we know what happened.
3:00So it was an extraordinary event, let's
3:03say, which, although not really visible
3:05on this chart, dragged us back down to
3:07bottom levels. $ 3,000 per coin. The
3:11chart here marks it at 5,000, but it was
3:13actually 3,000.
3:15Next, we had another bull market.
3:18Our bull market had just begun, we moved
3:20above the 50-week moving average, and we
3:23see that after a long time we returned
3:25to that level, even testing it again
3:28when Bitcoin, after, let's say, briefly
3:30exceeding its ATH, spent a long, long
3:33time correcting. That was precisely the
3:35moment when the retail crowd got spooked
3:37, and for that very reason, we didn't
3:38have an altcoin season. This new, let's
3:41call it, new blood was entering the
3:42cryptocurrency market. You could see it
3:44in the views, in the affiliate links,
3:46and you could even see it in the growth
3:48of altcoins. They actually bought
3:49altcoins, deciding that Bitcoin was too
3:51expensive. Because it used to cost
3:5315,000, and now it costs nearly 70,000.
3:56So let's buy alts instead. And those
3:58people were then met with a seven-month
4:00, you could say, mini-bear market.
4:02Declines that dragged altcoins very,
4:04very low.
4:06And here we have arrived again at that
4:07level which is the indicator of whether
4:09we are in a bull market.
4:14And in this cycle, it happened that we
4:16once again broke through the 50-week
4:18moving average, and this situation—the
4:20event related to the Binance hack of
4:22over 6 billion dollars, the largest hack
4:24in the history of the cryptocurrency
4:27market—pulled us back to this level.
4:31And here we can get into conspiracy
4:33theories. Was this hack meant to make us
4:35pull back to that 50-week moving average
4:37, in line with Bitcoin's previous
4:39behavior? Is this a coincidence? Is it a
4:42coincidence that around the bottom
4:44levels, as a bull market is beginning,
4:46we usually have hacks of some major
4:48exchange? Is it a coincidence that when
4:50we hit bottoms or tops, some interesting
4:53, very impactful events usually happen—
4:55crypto de-legalizations, hacks, exchange
4:58collapses, and so on and so forth. Well
5:00, here we won't find that out for sure.
5:02Some will argue that it's a coincidence
5:04; others will say it was planned. There
5:06are even theories claiming that the
5:08Binance hack was carried out by CZ
5:10himself.
5:12In itself, well, we will most likely
5:14never know the truth.
5:16Nevertheless, Bitcoin has pulled back to
5:19levels that were predicted here by some
5:21soothsayers.
5:25As for the fortune tellers, since I’ve
5:27touched on that topic, you should know
5:29that somewhere on the internet, in its
5:31depths, theories are circulating that we
5:33might even test lower levels for a while
5:35and Bitcoin could pull back to the $
5:3771,000 level per coin.
5:41Somewhere here, analysts are pointing to
5:44levels of 71 to 72,000 per coin.
5:47There are also those who say that we
5:49will only see the real Bitcoin bottom at
5:51the end of this year or early next year
5:53, because we have some very important
5:55events ahead of us.
5:57At the moment I am recording this video
5:59for you, it is November 1st, 9:00 PM.
6:02This video will likely come out very,
6:03very late at night, so you will probably
6:05be watching it on November 2nd, but you
6:07should know that on November 3rd, we
6:09have the midterm elections in the United
6:11States. And as I showed you in one of my
6:13recent videos, in the case of Bitcoin,
6:15we have had declines after the midterm
6:18elections.
6:19Once those declines were at around 50%,
6:21then those declines were around 40%, and
6:24then the third time, the declines took
6:26place, well, during the last midterm
6:28elections, and Bitcoin pulled back by
6:31over a dozen percent then.
6:35And looking at this Bitcoin behavior and
6:38this drop from 86,000 to 77,000, it kind
6:40of fits into these Bitcoin pullbacks
6:42around the midterm elections in the
6:45United States.
6:47However, there are those who claim that
6:49the real declines after the midterm
6:51elections are yet to come.
6:53And if such declines were actually to
6:56happen, then even that correction, let's
6:58say by 10%of Bitcoin from today's levels
7:01, would indeed be that drop to the level
7:03of about 71 to 72,000 dollars per coin.
7:08So if anyone here had a problem with not
7:10being able to buy Bitcoin cheaply enough
7:12, then potentially an opportunity might
7:14still arise for such a person.
7:18The truth is that looking at it from a
7:20percentage standpoint, even buying
7:22Bitcoin at today's level, or even a
7:24higher level of 80,000 dollars per coin
7:26, is exactly the same kind of purchase
7:29as buying Bitcoin for 20,000 in the
7:31previous bull market, when the bottom
7:33was at 15. It is roughly the same
7:35difference. Percentage-wise. So if
7:37someone was averaging during that bull
7:40market and buying Bitcoin for 15, 18, 20
7:43, 22, 25, and got an average of around
7:4520,000, which was a pretty good result,
7:48then buying Bitcoin today or even at a
7:50higher level, around 80,000, is more or
7:53less the same, let's say, percentage
7:55distance from the bottom as in the case
7:58of earlier purchases. Because it is the
8:00same percentage difference between 60
8:03and 80,000 as it is between 15 and 20.
8:06However, the sad truth is that,
8:08undoubtedly, the potential is smaller.
8:11Looking at the fact that Bitcoin grows
8:13less with each bull market, we once saw
8:16growth of 500 times. In that first major
8:18bull run, Bitcoin grew 500-fold. You
8:21could have put 1,000 PLN into Bitcoin
8:23and taken out 500,000 PLN a moment later
8:25, literally a moment later. In the next
8:27bull market, that result was five times
8:29smaller. Bitcoin grew "only," in quotes
8:32, 100-fold. In the following bull market
8:34, it was five times less again; Bitcoin
8:37grew 20-fold.
8:38And so, it would seem that in the next
8:41bull market, if it grows five times less
8:43, the result won't be that impressive.
8:46Bitcoin should only reach 70,000. It
8:48turned out that ETFs entered the scene,
8:51ETFs that bought up a lot of Bitcoin.
8:53And thanks to that, you could say—and it
8:55really was thanks to that—because these
8:57purchases were truly huge, and a lot of
8:59Bitcoins were taken off exchanges, a lot
9:01of Bitcoins were acquired by ETFs and
9:03various types of institutions.
9:05Thanks to that, Bitcoin grew not
9:07fourfold, but eightfold.
9:10So, in that bull market, it undoubtedly
9:12deviated from the norm in our favor. We
9:15could be pleasantly surprised by that
9:17Bitcoin growth. And the question is what
9:19it will look like over the coming years
9:20.
9:21In my opinion, if we continue to see ETF
9:24purchases, if pension funds in the US
9:26also enter, and if the amount of
9:28Bitcoins continues to be drained from
9:30exchanges, it may turn out that the
9:32gains will be very nice indeed.
9:36However, whether it will be 8 times from
9:38today's levels or even from the 60,000
9:40dollar mark.
9:42I am not counting on such levels.
9:44I spoke about this in the last Q&A I
9:46recorded for you.
9:48If you haven't seen it, I encourage you
9:50to watch it. But as I said, if I am
9:52pleasantly surprised, that will be great
9:54.
9:56As a long-term investor, I prefer to
9:58have lower expectations and, at best, be
10:00pleasantly surprised, and at worst, exit
10:03too early but still with a profit,
10:05playing according to my strategy, rather
10:07than having overly high expectations
10:09like many in this market and ending up
10:12losing along the way because I wanted to
10:14use leverage, because Bitcoin's return
10:16wasn't enough for me, or because I chose
10:19some risky altcoins or kept funds on
10:21protocols that turned out to be hacked.
10:25Of course, this is solely my strategy,
10:27this safe play. You can invest your own
10:30funds however you want. To sum up my
10:32rather long discourse, Bitcoin currently
10:35costs 77,000. According to analysts,
10:37there is a chance for 71-72. There is
10:40also confirmation that if it were to
10:42pull back by those 10%after the halving
10:44elections, that is indeed also the 71-72
10:46level.
10:48However, if someone doesn't want to wait
10:50, it seems to me that from the
10:52perspective of time and the potential
10:54Bitcoin has over the coming years,
10:56buying at current levels won't be a bad
10:59move, comparable to buying Bitcoin at
11:0120,000 when the bottom was at 15.
11:05Of course, you can also predict the
11:07worst-case scenario, where we buy
11:09Bitcoin at levels similar to the current
11:11ones.
11:12Maybe a little lower, maybe a little
11:14higher, and then, at the end of the year
11:17or very soon, some crash or crisis hits
11:19the traditional stock market. That
11:21market drops by 20%, Bitcoin loses at
11:24least 50%, and it turns out we bought
11:26Bitcoin at 80,000 and now it costs 40.
11:29That possibility also exists, of course
11:31. I have told you many times before that
11:34it is in our best interest, if this
11:36crisis were to come, that it happens
11:38before we buy Bitcoin, not after.
11:41Nevertheless, I have cash prepared for
11:43such an eventuality, and among other
11:46reasons, that is why I always tell you
11:48to invest 10, 15, or 20%of your funds,
11:50so that if such a situation occurs, you
11:53can add these extra funds and average
11:55out your position without waiting
11:57exceptionally long. However, someone who
12:00decides to invest 100%and even takes out
12:02a loan on top of that might be unhappy
12:04that they bought Bitcoin, only to see it
12:07cost half as much later with no funds
12:09left to buy more. As for how that crisis
12:11will play out, we will obviously see.
12:15But looking at the recent behavior of
12:17the traditional stock market, looking at
12:20the Nasdaq, looking at the fact that
12:22Europe is still above the 100-dollar
12:24level, and looking at Trump threatening
12:26to attack Iran, it all looks quite
12:28interesting.
12:31We also recently learned that many
12:33billionaires are starting to sell their
12:35AI stocks.
12:36Alright, without further ado, let's move
12:39on to world news. Let's see what's going
12:41on in the big wide world. To start with
12:43, the information I already told you
12:45about. On November 3rd, we have the
12:48midterm elections in the United States.
12:50Many signs indicate that Trump will lose
12:52.
12:53And the question now is how the world
12:55will react, and how the stock market
12:57will behave here.
12:59There are people who claim that because
13:01Trump will lose, things might even get
13:03better. We might actually see gains
13:05instead of drops. And these people argue
13:07that it will be better because the stock
13:09market dislikes uncertainty, and Trump
13:11represents that uncertainty. Trump, who
13:13is capable of changing his mind three
13:15times in a single day. Trump, who might
13:18attack various countries or kidnap the
13:20presidents of other nations.
13:24Uh, if Trump has, uh, well, a harder
13:26time governing, if he sometimes has to
13:28ask for approval or if we see opposition
13:31to his decisions, it may turn out that
13:33the United States might get a bit stuck
13:36.
13:37It will be a situation like we have, for
13:40example, in Poland right now, where the
13:42government is on one side and the
13:44president is on the other.
13:46I think that if, for example,
13:48Trzaskowski were president, then
13:50everything would move much faster in the
13:52direction that Tusk wants.
13:55If PiS and Kaczyński were in power again
13:57, then everything could move very
13:59quickly with the current president and
14:01in line with what Kaczyński wants.
14:05But since we are in a situation where we
14:07have, let's say, Tusk in the Sejm and
14:09someone from the PiS side as president,
14:11there is a bit of a war here, some kind
14:14of deadlock, and certain things move
14:16more slowly.
14:17And we could have a similar situation in
14:19the United States, which might actually
14:21bring some calm to the stock market.
14:23Because tariffs could potentially start
14:25to be lifted. There is already talk that
14:27if Trump loses, the United States will
14:29want to start lifting tariffs. Perhaps
14:31the conflict in the Middle East will
14:33even come to an end. That could mean, in
14:35turn, that oil will get cheaper. If oil
14:37gets cheaper, gasoline gets cheaper,
14:39transport costs drop, it might even move
14:41us potentially further away from this
14:43crisis. We will see how it develops
14:45further. Well, there is no great
14:47philosophy in my strategy here.
14:50If I see that Bitcoin has really dropped
14:53very significantly, I will be buying
14:55more of it.
14:56If it goes up, then, of course, I will
14:58be happy about it. You know roughly what
15:01my distribution is in my basket. As for
15:03other assets, I'm not buying gold yet.
15:05You ask me about that. I know it has
15:07fallen, but after such a rally, it is
15:09something completely normal.
15:13However, looking from a historical
15:15perspective, gold likes to fall for a
15:18longer time, so it seems to me that a
15:20certain rapper rapped, uh, what was it,
15:22on the occasion of the most famous
15:24disease in the world, and said: "
15:26Remember, my sweeties, it's worth buying
15:29gold 5 years after a crisis."
15:33So, so, so it seems to me that there is
15:35still time for that. In any case, we
15:37will see how the situation develops.
15:39This week will be really very
15:40interesting. Now I also see a separate
15:42issue for the cryptocurrency market
15:44itself, and I wanted to tell you about
15:46that too. Because there is already talk
15:48—besides the fact that tariffs will be
15:50lifted, besides the fact that perhaps
15:52this conflict in the Middle East will
15:54end or at least begin to subside in some
15:56way—there is talk that we will start
15:58having more and more investigations
16:00regarding the cryptocurrency market.
16:04And it's not because they don't like
16:05cryptocurrencies in the United States,
16:07or because the United States is against
16:09the crypto market, but only because by
16:11attacking the crypto market, they will
16:13be able to hit Trump.
16:17And there is more and more talk about
16:18him having made too much money on
16:20cryptocurrencies, that many decisions he
16:22made were just to make crypto go up or
16:24down, while people around him were
16:26either longing or shorting.
16:29So, this crypto market topic could
16:31become very, very loud, which could
16:34potentially cause a lot of damage.
16:37By the way, as a curious fact, after the
16:39Binance hack, Trump was asked what he
16:41thought about it, and he had the nerve,
16:44the audacity to state that he had always
16:46known that these cryptocurrencies were a
16:48bit risky.
16:51To be precise, he used the word
16:53dangerous, but you really have to have
16:55some nerve after hyping crypto so much,
16:57after creating your own crypto project,
16:59after creating Trump and Melania coins
17:02that are biting the dust.
17:05Saying that these cryptocurrencies are
17:07very dangerous and that he always knew
17:09it, well, is quite an achievement.
17:12The next piece of information is, of
17:14course, the war in Iran, which I told
17:16you about. The USA is preparing for an
17:18escalation, quietly warning its allies,
17:21new findings.
17:22And there is talk that Trump will attack
17:24very quickly right after the midterm
17:26elections.
17:27To me, this is a bit strange, because it
17:29seems to me that it would be in his
17:31interest to attack before those
17:32elections, while he still can. I don't
17:34know exactly how it looks in the United
17:36States. Maybe there is some transition
17:38period where he has already lost, I mean
17:40, has already lost, but can still do
17:42something. Maybe that's the case.
17:44Because there is talk that if he loses,
17:46he won't be able to attack other
17:48countries so eagerly, yet on the other
17:50hand, they say he will attack right
17:52after the elections.
17:54Anyway, somewhere around the Pentagon,
17:56pizza orders are on the rise.
18:01I don't know if you've heard, but
18:02sometimes one can measure whether there
18:05will be an armed conflict by the number
18:07of pizza orders around the Pentagon,
18:08because that's when a lot of people who
18:10can make decisions, military personnel
18:12and strategists, gather there.
18:18They order pizza, and it turned out that
18:20usually when pizza orders around the
18:22Pentagon went up, there were then some
18:24actions around the world, and that's how
18:26a certain pizza index was created, which
18:28shows whether the United States is
18:30trying to attack someone or not.
18:34So, back to the topic, these pizza
18:36orders have increased.
18:39Some countries have been informed that
18:41such an attack might be carried out. And
18:43of course, such an attack could once
18:45again cause oil prices to go up. Right
18:47now, as I mentioned to you, it's 104
18:50dollars.
18:53However, we can clearly see that since
18:56July we have been climbing higher, and
18:58we are not far from the local ATH we had
19:00on a slightly larger scale.
19:05I can't do an "all" here without logging
19:07in. Anyway, at least on a 10-year scale
19:10, we haven't seen oil this expensive in
19:12a long time. This is also some fallout
19:15from, let's say, the most famous illness
19:17in the world. In any case, we are at
19:19these very, very high levels.
19:22There is also a correlation that usually
19:24, when oil rises by 30%from its average
19:27of recent months, crises break out.
19:31So here is another point we can mark
19:33that points to a potential crisis.
19:35Expensive oil, expensive transport,
19:37expensive production, everything is
19:39expensive. By the way, people have less
19:41money in their pockets because they have
19:43to fuel their cars. So on one hand they
19:45have less, and on the other hand,
19:47everything is more expensive.
19:51When they buy less, companies earn less
19:53, and this could be a factor that causes
19:55these crises to erupt.
19:59The chart you see right now shows us oil
20:01prices and diesel prices, because the
20:03price of oil is one thing, and the price
20:06of diesel is another. This also includes
20:08the cost of transport, processing, and
20:10so on and so forth.
20:12So it can, you know,
20:16change, and we might have slightly
20:18cheaper oil but more expensive diesel,
20:20or more expensive oil while diesel is
20:22not that expensive. Anyway, looking at
20:24the recent past, we had an ATH, and
20:27after a slight pullback, we are heading
20:29up again.
20:32Our S&P on a one-week scale is, so far,
20:35mostly in the green, despite a slight
20:38pullback of a few percent.
20:42As for various types of companies, we
20:44see that capital has flowed from the
20:46larger companies to the smaller ones.
20:49But Google itself lost over 12%in just
20:51one week.
20:55On the other hand, more important for
20:57tech companies, which has been pushing
20:59us forward and allowing many to earn, is
21:01the NASDAQ.
21:03In any case, we see here that the NASDAQ
21:05100 is showing more red over the week.
21:08SpaceX, over 8%. Here is a very large
21:11decline that was widely talked about.
21:13Take Intel, for example, which lost over
21:1624%in just one single week.
21:19A quarter of the company evaporated in
21:21just one week.
21:22We are seeing declines of several to
21:24over a dozen percent in just one single
21:27week.
21:28On a one-month scale, it looks like this
21:30. So, well
21:33These declines have actually, actually
21:36begun.
21:38Sometimes people use the argument
21:40against cryptocurrencies that their
21:42prices fluctuate very sharply. But here
21:44, for instance, we can see that a
21:46company like Intel can lose half its
21:48value in a month. Well, this is a much
21:50bigger drop than even the drop in our
21:52Bitcoin, because while it did drop a bit
21:54more in that bear market, it didn't take
21:56it a month, but 8 months.
21:59So, well, the fluctuations are much
22:01smaller in the case of, say,
22:02cryptocurrencies than in the case of
22:05such a traditional stock exchange lately
22:07, which again shows that, well, this is
22:10panic.
22:11It is simply panic.
22:12Moving on, but still staying on the
22:14topic of the United States, we recently
22:17learned that interest in stablecoins is
22:19growing very strongly in the United
22:21States.
22:23And here we can read in the article that
22:25, in total, that interest and volumes
22:27have increased regarding stablecoins
22:29fourfold recently.
22:32Even before we move on to trivia, well,
22:34let's obviously check our ETFs. And here
22:37we can see, among other things, the
22:39culprit behind the recent declines. ETFs
22:42sold a lot of Bitcoin.
22:44Well, it is one of the larger sales in
22:46recent times.
22:49Well, it is larger than the one that
22:51took place, let's say, a few days ago.
22:55And since that time, let's say, there
22:57hasn't been such a sale for many, many
22:59months.
23:01You could say that a similar sale only
23:03happened at the Bitcoin bottom somewhere
23:06around June, so, well, it was definitely
23:08a very large sale.
23:10Some people panicked. Well, obviously we
23:12also had the situation related to
23:14Binance. That could be the reason they
23:16were selling.
23:18Um, well, and we'll see how the ETFs
23:20will behave after the weekend, right?
23:23Because in a moment there might be panic
23:24, because everything, for example, is
23:26falling, right? Or because there are
23:28declines after the mid-term elections.
23:30So, well, here in my opinion it is
23:32important to remember this, let's say,
23:34investment safety protocol.
23:37We don't put everything in at once. We
23:39don't buy.
23:40Even if we are sure that it's the bottom
23:42, or even if we are sure that it's the
23:44top, and that it's the peak or the end
23:46of the bull market.
23:48I am not a fan of playing like that,
23:50let's say, all-in, all-out. Now I'm
23:52buying because it's definitely the
23:54bottom, and now I'm exiting because it's
23:55definitely the top. In reality, we all
23:57know nothing. And at the peak, it might
23:59turn out that it's actually a
24:01super-cycle. At the bottom. It might
24:03turn out that it's not the bottom
24:04because some exchange collapsed or was
24:06hacked and the bottom will be bigger and
24:08then we will regret it.
24:09I believe that such averaging is simply
24:12smart.
24:13It increases the probability of profit,
24:15and in the long run, our portfolio will
24:17simply be grateful to us for that.
24:21As for the sales volume, well, it was
24:23slightly higher than the previous one
24:25from October 22nd, but it was higher.
24:28Here we have 635, and here 643. Alright
24:32, let's move on to some interesting
24:33facts, that is, the most interesting
24:35events and information from the past few
24:37days. And to start, news about another
24:39hack.
24:41As we can read on Decrypt, Polymarket is
24:44also having problems with various types
24:46of hackers.
24:48It seems to me that there will be more
24:49and more of these hacks now.
24:52Uh, the problem, of course, is
24:54developing AI, and the fact that AI is
24:57able to analyze code much better than a
24:59human and is, well, much better able to
25:02find all kinds of bugs, holes in that
25:04code, and thus attack.
25:07You could say that thanks to AI, uh,
25:10various types of hackers, um,
25:14well, even on their own, are able to act
25:16as if they were operating in a huge
25:18group.
25:24They also don't make mistakes because AI
25:26is able to play it much better, and I
25:28could even go in another direction and
25:30state that you don't even slowly need to
25:32be a hacker to hack, because all that
25:34knowledge, well, comes from AI, so even
25:36the hacker's level of expertise can be
25:38lower and lower.
25:45So it's getting easier, faster, and more
25:48precise, and the person hacking
25:50themselves can simply have less
25:51knowledge.
25:56As for Polymarket itself, well, in our
25:58case, there isn't really a problem,
26:00because we Poles in a free country, as
26:02free people, do not have access to
26:04Polymarket, because our rulers and
26:06rulers in other countries tell us what
26:09we can and cannot do.
26:12And it turns out that as free people, we
26:14cannot do this.
26:15We can watch how people, let's say,
26:24place bets, because perhaps through this
26:26we would find out that various types of
26:28political polls are not true or are done
26:30solely to control others and tell them
26:32how they should invest, or tell them–
26:34sorry–how they should vote, or tell them
26:36that it's not worth voting for the party
26:38they would like because it has no chance
26:40anyway, so they choose the next one in
26:42line that is closer to them, which has
26:44better chances, and that's how people
26:46are controlled.
26:53Well, perhaps we would find that out if
26:55such a Polymarket were available in
26:57Poland.
26:58I don't know, that's just my speculation
27:00. In any case, it turns out that thanks
27:03to our rulers, we fortunately don't have
27:05access to it, so fortunately we didn't
27:07lose anything. But for those who lost
27:10money, it turns out—and this is a very
27:12interesting thing—that if they lost up
27:14to 10,000 dollars, they can recover
27:16those funds without any issue, but if
27:18the loss is over 10,000 dollars, they
27:20have to fill out some forms and they
27:22might get the money back, or they might
27:24not.
27:26Then, literally a day later, we found
27:28out about the Trezor hack.
27:31On the kryps.pl website, we can read
27:33that first it was Ledger, now it's
27:35Trezor. Someone was installing implants
27:38in hardware wallets. Basically, in a
27:40nutshell, it's the exact same situation
27:42as with Ledger. Some people here even
27:45tried to accuse me, claiming, "Oh,
27:47you're promoting Ledger."
27:50Even though I don't really promote it,
27:51because I don't even mention it. The
27:53only things there are, if anything, are
27:55links to the actual exchanges I use and
27:58the actual wallets I use, and honestly,
28:00I don't give a damn if you use the same
28:02exchanges or not, or if you use the same
28:05wallets or not. I just show what I use.
28:08If you want to use the same thing, you
28:11can, and if you don't, you don't have to
28:13.
28:13This market is for adults, and it would
28:16be great if adults made their own
28:17decisions and also took responsibility
28:19for the consequences of those decisions
28:21.
28:23Unfortunately, it often happens that
28:25when someone makes money, they are a
28:27super investor, but when they lose, it's
28:29the fault of that evil influencer who
28:31recommended something to you.
28:34And it turns out that I started getting
28:36messages like, "Oh, you're recommending
28:38Ledger.""Look, it got hacked." Literally
28:40a few days later, we found out that
28:42exactly the same thing happened to
28:44Trezor, and I remember how a few months
28:46ago some Ledger data leaked,
28:48specifically Ledger customer data. There
28:50was a similar situation: "Ledger data
28:52leaked, and you're advertising it." A
28:54few weeks passed.
28:56Exactly the same thing happened to
28:58Trezor, and I think there will be more
29:00and more such hacks and data leaks.
29:04If I say I go to a doctor—well, I don't
29:07actually go, but let's assume I do—if
29:10data from various doctors or pharmacies
29:12leaks, is that my fault too, right?
29:16It's the fault of the providers of the
29:18security, let's say, right? But actually
29:20, is it even their fault?
29:23I would argue with that too.
29:26Simply put, the level of hacking has
29:28increased significantly, and I think
29:30there will be more and more such hacks
29:32over the next few or several months.
29:38In the end, it will probably turn out
29:40for the better, because security
29:41measures will be created, and various
29:43types of solutions against these types
29:45of hacks will be implemented.
29:49I think that in the end, everything will
29:51be more secure, but people will likely
29:53still lose money. they will lose money,
29:55they will lose their data, uh,
29:57information, uh, about themselves.
30:01I think that there will be some, some
30:03turmoil here when it comes to
30:04cybersecurity.
30:05And what is my point? My point is that
30:08this is the kind of thing—I wrote about
30:10this on X—which could cause, well,
30:12exactly that, it will scare people away
30:14from the cryptocurrency market. Because
30:16, for example, one protocol will
30:18collapse, then another: someone there
30:20will want to stake—they’ll lose; someone
30:22there will want to trade with leverage—
30:24that particular exchange will get hacked
30:25; someone there will want to play around
30:27with some loans—then another protocol
30:29will collapse. Someone there will freeze
30:31something to get another cryptocurrency
30:33, and unfortunately, they won't recover
30:35their funds. Uh, and these types of
30:38things, these types of reports—hacks of
30:40exchanges, collapses of exchanges, uh,
30:43wallets, uh, cryptocurrency ones—will
30:45appear in traditional media, and this
30:47may cause this bull market to be a very
30:50difficult one, because not only do we
30:52have a crisis around the corner
30:54somewhere (it doesn't have to be
30:56tomorrow, it might be, it might not, but
30:59well, potentially), if we want to invest
31:01in cryptocurrencies, we assume that some
31:04rough cyclicality occurs—maybe not to
31:06the day—but well, somewhere after a year
31:09of declines, years of growth should
31:11follow. Well, also as investors, we
31:13should assume that, well, 3 years of
31:15growth should happen, or at least 2
31:16years, or maybe 4 years, because it will
31:18be longer. But we automatically have to
31:20assume that along the way, throughout
31:22three or four years, there cannot be a
31:24crisis. And now, what is the chance that
31:26for three or four years there will be no
31:28crisis?
31:29When it comes to crises themselves and
31:32the S&P, I prefer to look at the
31:34inflation-adjusted chart for the S&P,
31:36not the one that shows it constantly
31:39rising, because in the long term, of
31:41course, it constantly rises, but I
31:43believe we need to look at the S&P in
31:46the context of purchasing power, that is
31:48, what it can, uh, buy.
31:50For those who might be new to investing
31:52and don't really understand this.
31:55Uh, a simple example.
31:58Bitcoin costs 60,000 dollars per unit.
32:02We have our Bitcoin and this Bitcoin
32:04costs, for example, 60,000 dollars per
32:07unit.
32:07Here is the 60,000 dollars per unit
32:10level in the year 2021.
32:13And it turns out that only after a few
32:16years, let's say, in the year '24, which
32:19is after three years roughly, Bitcoin
32:21costs 60,000 per unit again.
32:24And now the question is, does it cost
32:26the same? Yes, it costs the same, but
32:28can we buy the same amount with that
32:30Bitcoin?
32:32Well, not necessarily, because during
32:34that time between 2021 and 2024 we had
32:37something like inflation—a hidden thief
32:39that deprives us of money, or rather,
32:42the purchasing power of that money. And
32:45it turns out that the same Bitcoin,
32:47which costs the same, can buy less
32:49because there is simply less purchasing
32:51power. We can buy fewer loaves of bread
32:53, we can buy fewer houses, less of
32:55anything else.
32:58For example, today in 2026, Bitcoin
33:01costs 70,000 or 80,000 dollars apiece,
33:04which means it costs more than in 2021.
33:09But does it have more purchasing power?
33:11Well, no, because over those 5 years,
33:14even though it costs more than 60,000—
33:17let’s say 77,000—the purchasing power of
33:20money has fallen so much that the more
33:22expensive Bitcoin can actually buy less
33:25.
33:26And that is exactly what "
33:28inflation-adjusted" means: really
33:30looking at what we can actually buy with
33:32a given asset.
33:34Here is such a chart for the S&P, and it
33:37shows how it looks in real purchasing
33:39power terms, because looking at the
33:41price in dollar terms, it grows much
33:43faster, it grows much stronger. But what
33:45if the dollar is falling? What if prices
33:48in stores are higher, and it turns out
33:50that while the S&P might be more
33:51expensive, we can actually buy less with
33:53it? And that is exactly what the
33:55inflation-adjusted chart shows. So, what
33:57can we see here?
33:59Well, we can see an interesting fact:
34:02after very long and strong growth—here
34:04we have those very long and strong gains
34:07—there were usually periods of long
34:09declines in terms of the S&P's
34:11purchasing power.
34:14And I believe that one should invest
34:16based on this, not on the price in
34:17dollar terms. Now, turning off these
34:20drawings, we can see that somewhere here
34:22the S&P was growing since the 1920s in
34:25terms of purchasing power, right?
34:27Because that is the real gain in
34:28purchasing power, since we can buy more
34:30and more with it.
34:32It grew for 9 years until 1929, and then
34:35when it crashed and fell, it basically
34:37kept falling until about 1949.
34:41Whoever bought the S&P at the peak in
34:441929 had to wait until 1948 for it to
34:46start growing again, and they actually
34:49only reached similar purchasing power in
34:521956.
34:53That is a huge gap. I bought in 1929,
34:56and even though there was more in
34:58dollars in between, it wasn't until 1956
35:01that I had similar purchasing power. I
35:03could buy the same number of loaves of
35:06bread for my S&P as back then.
35:08And just here we can see that the S&P
35:10could have started growing rapidly again
35:13from somewhere around 1949, let's say
35:16roughly until 1968.
35:19And what turned out to be the case? Well
35:21, once again, we had many, many years
35:24from '68 to '82 of a decline in
35:26purchasing power, and it only started to
35:29recover from '82 somewhere here in '91,
35:32so it wasn't a good period for buying in
35:34the 60s for the S&P.
35:36And we had a similar situation. So, what
35:39does this look like to you?
35:43If we have, for example, growth here
35:45followed by a decline, we have growth
35:47followed by a long decline, we have
35:49growth followed by a long decline, well
35:52, it's a primary school problem—after
35:54this growth, what comes next?
35:57Well, you could believe there will be
35:59another 3 years of such growth, right?
36:02However, there is a good chance there
36:04will be a decline here, or a decline
36:06from this level, or from that one.
36:08Or maybe we'll get lucky and it will
36:10only happen from this one.
36:12Yes, but let's say the probability of a
36:15decline is growing with every passing
36:17month and the behavior of the S&P.
36:20Looking at it right now, we are clearly
36:22at the peaks. And now, assuming our
36:24investing approach, this bull market
36:26might be difficult, because what if
36:28there's a 15, 18, or even that critical
36:3020%drop in the S&P; what will Bitcoin do
36:32then? In my opinion, that would be minus
36:3550 on Bitcoin, right? And what will the
36:37alts do then? -99 from current levels,
36:40-99. Hacks along the way. The
36:42development of AI. AI will also continue
36:44to develop over these three years. Yes,
36:46there will be more and more hacks, more
36:48problems, and more protocols will
36:50collapse. And so we will have more and
36:51more information saying that the
36:53cryptocurrency market, pardon my
36:54language, is a piece of, because
36:56another exchange collapsed, another
36:58protocol failed, another project
36:59imploded. Is that encouraging? Along the
37:01way, we could have a Trump loss and the
37:03United States going after Trump
37:05throughout these next years, just as he
37:07would be governing, because he made
37:09money on Melania, because he made money
37:11on Trump, because he made money on his
37:13other projects there, which is also bad
37:15PR for the crypto market. And now the
37:17question is, what is the chance that
37:19altcoins will rise this time in this
37:21bull market, or what is the probability
37:23of making money on these altcoins versus
37:25the probability of losing in this cycle
37:27, since they didn't rise in the last
37:29cycle and the so-called retail investors
37:31were scared then too. And that is
37:33precisely why I tell you to invest 10,
37:3615, at most 20%; I wouldn't put in more
37:39. Of course, this is not financial
37:41advice; I'm just telling you what I
37:43would do.
37:44And there is a certain risk that if
37:46someone doesn't listen and goes all in,
37:48or even borrows money to invest, they
37:50might be in for a very big surprise,
37:53whereas on the other hand, a person who
37:55listens and enters with 10%might
37:57actually be glad to see Bitcoin dip to
37:5940,000, as they can simply buy more with
38:01another 10%. Yes, and you bought Bitcoin
38:04at 80. You bought Bitcoin at 40, so 80 +
38:0740, 120 divided by 2. The average
38:10purchase price comes out to 60,000
38:11dollars, for example. Yes. And now,
38:13looking back, there is a higher
38:15probability of profit and a higher
38:17probability of making money in general.
38:19Moving on, regarding hacks, we have
38:21another cryptocurrency wallet.
38:24This time it's Keystone, which also had
38:26issues with security and safeguards.
38:30Here we can even read that they had to
38:32destroy 18, close to 19,000 of their
38:35wallets.
38:38It's also interesting that Arthur Hayes
38:41, who is usually wrong in his
38:42predictions, recently announced that he
38:45sold some of his cryptocurrencies on
38:47October 24th.
38:49He sold Zama, Pendle, Aero, and so on.
38:52Well, you can see what he sold. He sold
38:55Ether. Uh, here are the amounts. He sold
38:57the most Ether. And it turns out that a
38:59few days later we had the Binance hack
39:01and the price drops, so this time he got
39:03lucky. The question is, did he know, did
39:06he not know, or was he just selling
39:08ahead of the Midterm Elections?
39:10And the fact that they should pull
39:12Bitcoin back to those levels with a
39:14seven at the front.
39:16As for the drops during the Midterm
39:18Elections, I already told you about that
39:20in previous videos. However, here we
39:22have a summary of how Bitcoin behaved.
39:25Look at the drops. A huge drop, a very
39:27large drop, a slightly smaller drop. Yes
39:30, here it was relatively, well, also a
39:32large drop. And the question is, what
39:34will happen now? Yes, looking at it from
39:37the perspective of probability, there
39:39was a drop every single time. Okay, it
39:41was getting smaller and smaller, that's
39:44good.
39:44However, a lot indicates that this drop
39:47should happen.
39:48Now the question is, has it already
39:50happened and is what we are seeing that
39:52very drop, or will we see that drop
39:54later, and maybe a low seven, or perhaps
39:57even a six at the front will appear?
40:01Returning to hacks, we have some
40:03unpleasant information here, because one
40:06of the, let's call them, Bitcoin
40:08proponents, a man who was a huge fan of
40:10Bitcoin, claims that in the end, AI will
40:12cause Bitcoin to be hacked as well.
40:18I hope not. Bitcoin's code has been
40:20checked and verified by many, many, many
40:23people.
40:25There is also always a chance to, let's
40:27say, do a fork, secure the Bitcoin block
40:30and, for instance, secure the Bitcoin
40:32code against this bug and continue from
40:35some block.
40:37There will probably be some people
40:38affected. What do I mean by that? Well,
40:40what I mean is that you can, for example
40:42, roll back Bitcoin to the block before
40:45the hack. And it could be that, let's
40:47assume,
40:50we wanted to buy a car, for example,
40:53someone gave us the car, and we paid for
40:55this car with Bitcoin. And that person
40:57received the Bitcoin, and it may turn
40:59out that the moment they received the
41:01Bitcoin and signed the contract, that is
41:03when Bitcoin gets hacked. And the
41:05developers decide that, in that case, we
41:07freeze Bitcoin, roll back its block to
41:09the moment before the hack, fix the code
41:11, and move on. Now, that is a very
41:14hardcore solution, but it is real. Yes.
41:18And we proceed with the post-hack
41:20Bitcoin, either quantum resistant or
41:22with that bug fixed.
41:25And it might turn out that they roll
41:26back Bitcoin to a point where we have
41:28those Bitcoins back in our wallet, right
41:30? Because there will simply be a block
41:32where we still had those Bitcoins. It
41:33may turn out that we will be in a
41:35situation where we have both the car and
41:37the Bitcoins. And it would depend on our
41:38honesty whether we would resend those
41:40Bitcoins to the person who sold us the
41:42car.
41:43So, there is at least that hardcore
41:45solution here. In the case of Bitcoin,
41:48the fact that it doesn't have a single
41:50CEO or creator is a huge plus.
41:53A big plus, indeed, that there is no
41:55creator aspect who can be found, thrown
41:57in jail, or have their office raided.
42:02But, there is also a certain downside
42:05that there is no single leader who says
42:07we will do something and we will act
42:09against things like quantum computers,
42:11AI, and so on.
42:14So, one of those creators, one of those
42:16people who promoted Bitcoin very
42:18strongly, claims that Bitcoin will be
42:20eventually. hacked.
42:24So that it isn't so sad in today's
42:26episode, I have to tell you that
42:28information recently came out that it
42:30might be possible for us to produce gold
42:32.
42:34Scientists are supposedly already able
42:36to produce gold.
42:38In this case, from mercury.
42:41However, these are some turbo, turbo,
42:43turbo small particles. Until now, they
42:46were there for a moment and disappeared
42:48, but it turns out we might be able to
42:49make ones that stay.
42:52And that again raises a certain question
42:54here: what about gold in the long run?
42:57Uh, of course, a very positive piece of
42:59news for gold fans or for people who
43:01invest in gold, like myself for instance
43:04, is that it is very expensive, very
43:06little of it is produced, and generally
43:08, it's still a song of the future, right
43:11.
43:13Before all of this could even be
43:15implemented, there is likely a chance
43:17that we will be mining gold from various
43:19asteroids using rockets and some form of
43:21space mining sooner than through this
43:23method.
43:26But perhaps AI will also accelerate
43:28technological development, including the
43:30development of solutions such as gold
43:32extraction.
43:34And then it might suddenly turn out that
43:36we will be able to "print" more gold for
43:38ourselves. So, that is also an
43:40interesting tidbit. Moving on, AI is
43:42obviously taking away jobs.
43:46Fewer and fewer people will be able to
43:48work as, well, that kind of office
43:50analyst.
43:51Recently, in a Q&A, I also talked about
43:54drivers.
43:56Autonomous cars are going to be created
43:59, so truck drivers, taxi drivers, Uber
44:01drivers, food delivery workers, and so
44:03on, could be in real trouble.
44:07It is said that within the next four
44:09years, 80%of people working at computers
44:12may no longer have their jobs, so that
44:14is also quite interesting. And now, we
44:17want to invest during this time. And one
44:19can ask a question that I think is valid
44:21. Who is going to buy these
44:22cryptocurrencies if everyone is losing
44:24their jobs and won't have the money to
44:26buy them? So these are the kinds of
44:28questions one can ask oneself. It seems
44:30to me that the next few years could be a
44:32very difficult, bumpy road. In the end,
44:34I believe Bitcoin will be worth a lot.
44:38Those things I talk about, those strong
44:41bullish fundamentals of Bitcoin, are
44:43still in play.
44:45I don't rule that out, but the road
44:46there might be bumpy. The end.
44:48Eventually, I believe it will reach
44:50hundreds of thousands of dollars per
44:52coin, and one, two, or three million in
44:54the end. But what happens along the way
44:56?
44:57Well, I don't know that. You know, it
44:59might turn out that the best solution in
45:01this chaos will simply be to buy Bitcoin
45:03at a reasonably good price. It doesn't
45:05have to be the perfect bottom, it
45:07doesn't have to be some super search for
45:08it.
45:10Just buying the Bitcoin and transferring
45:12it to a secure wallet.
45:14And I'm not saying it even has to be a
45:16hardware wallet.
45:20Uh, perhaps even a wallet where we
45:22create our own private key, and on a
45:24wallet where we haven't shown our public
45:26key to anyone, because it's even said
45:28that AI will be able to deduce a private
45:31key based on a public key.
45:35I don't know if that's possible, but
45:37people are talking about something like
45:38that. So, additional security is, of
45:41course, creating a Bitcoin holding in a
45:43wallet where we haven't made any
45:45transactions at all and no one even
45:47knows about the wallet.
45:48So perhaps it will turn out to be the
45:50best strategy.
45:52Buy and forget for many, many years. If
45:54it turns out it dropped because, for
45:56example, something happened, then buy
45:59more, right?
46:00Prepare money for this, go to work, save
46:03up, build your financial cushion, and
46:05buy more during dips, and just wait out
46:07those AI hacks, maybe wait out quantum
46:10computers, wait out all kinds of crises
46:12, crashes, and so on; or eventually buy
46:15more and, at a later date when the
46:17opportunity arises, realize profits
46:19without playing around with protocols,
46:21altcoins, and various types of leverage
46:24, and especially without keeping them on
46:26an exchange.
46:30I am increasingly wondering if it's not
46:32the best solution to buy, forget, and
46:34see what happens in a few years. However
46:36, we are moving on to the next section,
46:38the section on exchanges, of course. I
46:40already mentioned this to you. Binance
46:42was hacked for over 6 billion dollars.
46:44It is the largest hack in history, five
46:46times bigger than the previous largest
46:48in history.
46:50As of the day I am recording this news
46:52for you, Binance is already able to
46:54return 90%of those funds.
46:58Transactions on Binance are supposed to
47:00start today. Well, it shouldn't affect
47:02you, because once again, the European
47:04Union knows better which exchange we can
47:06use or not. One could laugh that, in
47:08total, the European Union saved us
47:10because we didn't have funds on Binance
47:12and thanks to that, we weren't robbed.
47:14However, Binance claims it will return
47:16those funds. It has already recovered
47:18most, meaning by buying, not from the
47:20hackers, but it bought back, let's say,
47:22the funds
47:24from, let's say, OTC. And now it is
47:27still at the stage of buying up those
47:28protocols that have lower volumes,
47:30because various types of
47:31cryptocurrencies also went missing there
47:33, and it will return them to its clients
47:35. Of course, Binance itself is not the
47:37only exchange that was hacked, because
47:40Bithumb was also hacked.
47:42Here, for example, on Lookonchain, we
47:44can find information that Binance is
47:47buying back those specific
47:48cryptocurrencies and projects via OTC.
47:51And most likely, people will get them
47:53back. In any case, we have hack after
47:55hack, hack after hack here, and I think
47:58there will be many, many more. And
48:00finally, your favorite section, the
48:02soothsayer section, where various types
48:04of analysts predict project valuations.
48:06In today's episode, there are
48:08exceptionally few soothsayers, because I
48:11already told you about those who claim
48:13it will be 40 and those who claim it
48:15will be 71-72.
48:20So, in summary, as a consolation after
48:23this slightly sad episode, I want to
48:25tell you that Tom Lee is not giving up
48:27and claims that next year, next year
48:29Ethereum will cost between 25 and 50
48:32thousand dollars apiece, which means it
48:34would have to grow 10 to 20 times in one
48:36year.
48:42So the guy isn't giving up with his
48:44predictions.
48:45And that's it. That's it. Thank you for
48:47listening. Of course, leave a thumbs up
48:49. If you haven't clicked the bell yet,
48:52click that bell, because YouTube hasn't
48:54been sending out notifications for my
48:56videos lately.
48:57And write a very long, complicated
48:59comment for a better algorithm and
49:01better positioning of this video.
49:04Thanks to this, more people will learn
49:06about this market, maybe more will be
49:08convinced, and perhaps more people will
49:10take an interest in finances in general
49:12and taking care of their wallet.
49:15Thank you again for listening. Until
49:16next time. Best regards. Bye.

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