Why the world's superpowers are racing to control the Arctic - BBC World Service — Transcript

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1. 0:03What happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic.
2. 0:09There are things happening in the Arctic now
3. 0:12that would have been unthinkable 20 years ago.
4. 0:17This is the region warming faster than anywhere else on Earth.
5. 0:22And as the climate changes, so does its strategic importance.
6. 0:28We need Greenland for national security and even international security.
7. 0:34Major powers are turning their eyes north.
8. 0:38Looking for resources, new routes through the ice,
9. 0:41and a way to strengthen their position on the global stage.
10. 0:44A lot of countries have come out with Arctic strategies.
11. 0:48It's part of how the international order is being challenged.
12. 0:53Here are five reasons why the Arctic has become one of
13. 0:55the world's most hotly contested regions.
14. 0:59To understand this, we need to look at the world in a different way.
15. 1:04Far from just a frozen ocean,
16. 1:06eight countries have territory in the Arctic Circle.
17. 1:09The United States, Canada, Greenland, which is a semi-autonomous part
18. 1:13of Denmark, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland and Russia.
19. 1:19During the Cold War between the US and Soviet Union,
20. 1:22going over the pole was a potential route for missile strikes.
21. 1:26Both countries expanded their military operations,
22. 1:29with the US establishing a base in the north of Greenland.
23. 1:34But in 1987, with the Cold War coming to an end, Soviet leader Mikhail
24. 1:38Gorbachev proposed the scaling down of military activity in the Arctic.
25. 1:43What Gorbachev was trying to articulate was a vision where
26. 1:47the Arctic parties would focus on areas where they could find common cause.
27. 1:54In the years that followed, the eight Arctic nations formed the Arctic Council
28. 1:59and agreed to work together on research and environmental protection.
29. 2:03Arctic and Non-arctic Arctic states opened research bases
30. 2:07with countries like China, India and South Korea investigating
31. 2:11how the region impacts weather patterns thousands of kilometres away in Asia.
32. 2:16The Arctic has had this reputation of being
33. 2:18sort of an exceptional place of peace and cooperation.
34. 2:22That narrative continued until Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
35. 2:30In 2022, Russia reopened the Cold War's fault lines.
36. 2:36Within months, Finland and Sweden
37. 2:38applied to join NATO, the Western military alliance.
38. 2:41The Arctic map became Russia on one side and NATO members on the other.
39. 2:47The border between Norway, Finland and Russia is effectively
40. 2:52a front line for Russia and NATO.
41. 2:55The Arctic saw direct conflict when a Russian air base in the Arctic Circle
42. 2:59was attacked by Ukrainian drones.
43. 3:02The region is critical to Russia's military.
44. 3:05Most of its nuclear capability is based there.
45. 3:21Russia has reopened dozens of Soviet era bases
46. 3:25and used Arctic waters to test hypersonic cruise missiles.
47. 3:30Russian and American fighter jets have come
48. 3:32into close proximity in the skies near Alaska.
49. 3:37And the West is also expanding its Arctic presence.
50. 3:402024 saw NATO's biggest drills in the region since the Cold War.
51. 3:46The US Army has reactivated a specialised Arctic force in Alaska,
52. 3:50and President Trump has proposed something bolder.
53. 3:57We need Greenland for national security and international security.
54. 4:01So I think we'll go as far as we have to go.
55. 4:04We need Greenland, and the world needs us to have Greenland.
56. 4:09The US still has a military base in Greenland,
57. 4:12and the response to Mr. Trump's suggestion was clear.
58. 4:21Polls suggest most Greenlanders don't want to be part of the US.
59. 4:25The majority want to be independent.
60. 4:29For Donald Trump, a strong presence in the Arctic is key
61. 4:32to countering the partnership between Russia and China,
62. 4:35which the two countries describe as a friendship without limits.
63. 4:40You don't even need binoculars.
64. 4:42You look outside, you have China ships all over the place.
65. 4:46You have Russian ships all over the place.
66. 4:49We're not letting that happen. Russian and Chinese Coast Guard ships
67. 4:53have carried out joint patrols in the Arctic Ocean,
68. 4:56and bombers from both countries have flown together near Alaska.
69. 5:01It's the first time that we've seen these two countries fly together like that.
70. 5:05The worry is that some of those drills, exercises, patrols
71. 5:12might generate a risky escalation, a miscalculation.
72. 5:18China says its actions are about deepening cooperation with Russia
73. 5:22and aren't aimed at third parties.
74. 5:24However, this relationship has tensions of its own.
75. 5:28There's been a danger that Russia's fully aware of is that the more
76. 5:33and more it collaborates with China,
77. 5:36the more it's giving China legitimacy to act as
78. 5:41a very powerful near-Arctic state.
79. 5:46China describes itself as a near-Arctic state,
80. 5:48despite being 1400km from the Arctic Circle.
81. 5:54In 2018, it launched a range of investment projects it called the Polar Silk Road.
82. 5:58But it's hit road blocks in communities wary of being over reliant on China.
83. 6:03They want to be a polar superpower.
84. 6:05We want a relationship to China,
85. 6:07but we do not want to be dependent on China.
86. 6:11There's no question that it was trying to sort of have a significant impact
87. 6:16in the Arctic, but it hasn't come to fruition.
88. 6:19Most of China's economic success in the Arctic has come from partnering
89. 6:22with Russia on projects like this natural gas extraction field.
90. 6:27And shipping this gas has been made easier by
91. 6:30the Arctic Ocean's melting sea ice.
92. 6:32This was how much there was in summer 1979, and this is in 2024.
93. 6:39A reduction of 2.6 million km², which is roughly the size of Argentina.
94. 6:45Many see this as an opportunity to exploit the Arctic for shipping during the summer months.
95. 6:50Of the three potential routes, the only one currently viable is
96. 6:53along Russia's northern coast, known as the Northern Sea Route.
97. 6:57There's been the hope that more and more traffic could bypass the usage
98. 7:04of the Suez Canal and shave thousands of miles off shipping time and distance.
99. 7:1197 cargo voyages were made using the Northern Sea Route in 2024,
100. 7:16mostly exports from Russia to China.
101. 7:19But compared to Suez, with 13000 ships passing through every year,
102. 7:23it's a long way from being a competitive option.
103. 7:27The Arctic Ocean is frozen for most of the year.
104. 7:30Even in summer it's an unpredictable environment.
105. 7:33You're going to have a situation where there are very small windows
106. 7:37of time where there could be the potential to transit,
107. 7:42and that doesn't offer the certainty the shipping industry needs.
108. 7:47While questions remain about shipping,
109. 7:50there's something else the melting ice may reveal.
110. 7:53There's been this narrative of the last frontier of sort of rich access
111. 7:57to resources that haven't been accessible in the past.
112. 8:00It's estimated that 30% of the world's undiscovered gas
113. 8:04and 13% of undiscovered oil is there.
114. 8:07Minerals too, particularly in Greenland.
115. 8:12If the US were to gain access to Greenland's resources,
116. 8:16it could significantly reduce our dependence
117. 8:18on foreign suppliers, particularly China,
118. 8:22which currently operates a virtual monopoly on the rare earth market.
119. 8:27But getting these resources is far from simple.
120. 8:31You're dealing with environments that are remote,
121. 8:34expensive to operate in, lacking infrastructure,
122. 8:38and where there is very little skilled labour close by.
123. 8:44Despite this, global interest in the region,
124. 8:47and what further ice melt might reveal, remains.
125. 8:51And that could introduce further competition
126. 8:53to this already contested region.
127. 8:5615 years ago you would have said the Arctic is a region best characterised by
128. 9:03high north, low tension.
129. 9:05Now we should adapt that slogan to high north, high tension.