Why I Think SPs are a Better Value than Mangas - One Piece TCG — Transcript
Full transcript
- 0:00Hello and welcome to OnePiece of
- 0:02Insight. In today's video, we will be
- 0:04having a conversation that I have been
- 0:05looking forward to for the last four
- 0:07videos, which is now that we've seen all
- 0:09the data on the mangas and the SPs, we
- 0:12can have a structured conversation about
- 0:14whether or not mangas are overrated as a
- 0:16class, SPs are underrated as a class,
- 0:19what does the data tell us about how
- 0:21these cards are valued relative to one
- 0:23another, and what can we learn from that
- 0:25in understanding whether something is
- 0:26undervalued or overvalued. As always,
- 0:29this is intended to be interesting and
- 0:31informative, but not financial advice.
- 0:33So, with that, let's jump right in.
- 0:35Let's start by looking at some of the
- 0:36basics. So, the average manga has a
- 0:38population of 5,600 and a price of
- 0:40$2,900.
- 0:42The average SP has a population of 8,000
- 0:45and a price of $285. So, that means that
- 0:48on average, mangas equal 70% of the
- 0:53population of the SPs, and they are 10
- 0:56times the price of the average SP. But
- 0:59wait, you say, we shouldn't be counting
- 1:01the special mangas. Obviously, the red
- 1:03manga and like the Gold Roger, they're
- 1:05going to massively pull up the value of
- 1:06the manga. Shouldn't you take that into
- 1:07account? You're right, I should take
- 1:09that into account.
- 1:10So, I removed all of those and just
- 1:13looked at the normal mangas to do a
- 1:14comparison. And so now, we have a
- 1:16population of 6,650,
- 1:19which has gone up because we've removed
- 1:21the rarest mangas from the equation, and
- 1:23we have an average price of $1,850.
- 1:26So, this now translates into mangas
- 1:29being a little over 80% of the
- 1:31population of SPs, but being six and a
- 1:34half times the price. So, that's
- 1:35obviously not as bad as 10x, but it is
- 1:37still a lot, and I think it is worth
- 1:40asking the question of whether the
- 1:42mangas,
- 1:43uh, given that their population is not
- 1:45significantly different from the SPs,
- 1:48should command such a premium. So, we're
- 1:50going to talk through some specific
- 1:51examples. And I'll be honest, I'm not
- 1:53going into this conversation with an
- 1:54agenda.
- 1:55I genuinely don't know what the answer
- 1:57is, right? I have my opinion having
- 1:59looked at the data, but like I don't
- 2:01know what the market is going to decide.
- 2:04And so, please hit me up in the comments
- 2:05and tell me what you think. I think this
- 2:07is something that we should all be
- 2:08asking, and I don't think any individual
- 2:10person has the answer, but I did want
- 2:12y'all to be aware of what the
- 2:14information underlying this is, and
- 2:15that's why I wanted to have this
- 2:16conversation. So, let's talk some
- 2:18specifics. So, let's pit the Manga Boa
- 2:22versus the SP Boa. Now, the reason I
- 2:23wanted to talk about this one first is
- 2:26number one, they have the same exact
- 2:28supply. So, it's comparing apples to
- 2:30apples here. Number two, popular
- 2:32character, the Boa Hancock obviously is
- 2:34a very iconic SP. So, while, you know,
- 2:37the average value of SPs may be held
- 2:39down by some of the less desirable ones,
- 2:41like here I think we're really comparing
- 2:43apples to apples. And so, what we see
- 2:45here is that the Manga is 1.8 times as
- 2:49expensive as the Boa SP. Now, if you ask
- 2:53me which I would rather have, I would
- 2:55rather have the Boa Hancock all day long
- 2:56compared to the Manga. I do think that
- 2:59objectively speaking, the Mangas are
- 3:02really cool, like the backgrounds are
- 3:03really cool, but I think if you compare
- 3:05it against like the iconic nature of the
- 3:07art in the SP, for me there's no
- 3:09comparison. I just think that the front
- 3:11art in a lot of these Mangas is just
- 3:13really, really lackluster. So, for me,
- 3:15the fact that the Manga is double the
- 3:17price of the SP
- 3:18is pretty surprising. You know, I had
- 3:20assumed that a lot of the rationale for
- 3:23the Mangas being more expensive is that
- 3:24they have lower population. And in this
- 3:26case, they don't, and yet they're still
- 3:27more expensive. So, let's look at
- 3:29another example.
- 3:31So, let's compare the Manga Luffy from
- 3:33the OP11 to the SP Luffy from PRB02.
- 3:39So, this is an instance where the Manga
- 3:41has a significantly larger population
- 3:43than the SP, right? So, there's about
- 3:461.8 times as many of the Manga Luffy's
- 3:50as there are the SP Luffy's, and yet the
- 3:53Manga is still 2.4 times the price of
- 3:56the SP.
- 3:58This does not make sense to me. I will
- 4:00be honest, like the Boa, I prefer the SP
- 4:02over the Manga. Maybe this is just me,
- 4:04and I'm I'm genuinely curious, right? If
- 4:06you prefer the Mangas over the SP, like
- 4:09if price was no object, tell me which
- 4:11one you would rather have. I think that
- 4:12would be really really interesting to
- 4:13know. But, you know, the fact that this
- 4:15is more than twice as expensive, despite
- 4:18having twice the population of the SP,
- 4:22to me is shocking, and I can't come up
- 4:24with a single justification why this
- 4:26difference exists. So, let's look at
- 4:27another example. So, we have the Manga
- 4:29Nami uh versus the SP Nami from EB03.
- 4:33So, the Manga has a population of 7,400
- 4:36and a price of $2,000. The Nami SP has a
- 4:39population of around 4,000 and a price
- 4:42of $1,300. Now, like this is a wildly
- 4:45popular SP that has been very hyped
- 4:47lately and has gone up a ton and is one
- 4:49of the most expensive SPs out there, and
- 4:51it is still $700 cheaper than the Nami
- 4:55Manga, even though the Nami Manga has
- 4:57almost twice the population of this SP,
- 5:00right? And so, like when I really
- 5:02started to dig into this,
- 5:04like it it wasn't just that the average
- 5:07Manga was more expensive than the
- 5:08average SP, right? It was like you're
- 5:11pitting the best and the rarest SPs
- 5:14against like,
- 5:16you know, medium to high population
- 5:19Mangas that are just like middle of the
- 5:21road desirability, and those are still
- 5:24more expensive.
- 5:26And I just I don't know how to justify
- 5:28it. I'm not saying it can't be
- 5:29justified, but I don't know how to do
- 5:31it. I also wanted to look at the Zoro,
- 5:34right? Cuz I really like this Zoro
- 5:35Manga. I also really like this Zoro SP.
- 5:38Uh you know, again, there's more of the
- 5:41Zoro Mangas than there likely are of the
- 5:44Zoro SP, right? So, you know, not a ton
- 5:47more, but you know, 20% more. And yet
- 5:49the Zoro manga is 3.2 times as expensive
- 5:53as the Zoro SP. Again, I don't know what
- 5:56to make of that. And then finally, I
- 5:57wanted to look at a cheaper comparison,
- 5:59and I wanted to look at something that
- 6:00came from the same set. Right? So, even
- 6:02if I'm off about the print run, the
- 6:04ratio should still be the same.
- 6:07Uh and you know, it's coming from the
- 6:08same set, it's the same character. So, I
- 6:10really think that this is like the
- 6:11ultimate apples-to-apples comparison.
- 6:14And yet, we have the Mihawk manga, which
- 6:17has a population of around 10,000,
- 6:19having, you know, 50% more supply than
- 6:24the Mihawk SP. And yet the Mihawk manga
- 6:27is 4.3 times the price of the Mihawk SP.
- 6:31Now, I will admit, I like the Mihawk
- 6:33manga here better than the SP. I do
- 6:35think aesthetically it's a more pleasing
- 6:37and interesting card. But like, is it
- 6:394.3 times more pleasing? And actually,
- 6:42it should be a lot more than that,
- 6:44right? Because it's a higher population
- 6:45card. Typically, lower population cards
- 6:48have a parabolic relationship with price
- 6:50because the smaller amount of cards
- 6:53are then pushed up because there's more
- 6:55demand fighting over a smaller subset of
- 6:57cards. Okay. So, all of this lends
- 7:00itself to the big question. Is this
- 7:02premium justified?
- 7:04So, I'm going to start by giving it the
- 7:06benefit of the doubt. The first is that
- 7:07like, it could be the result of
- 7:09aesthetic preference, right? It could be
- 7:11the people genuinely prefer the look of
- 7:13the mangas and think that they're just
- 7:16like the coolest things and that the SPs
- 7:19are pretty meh in comparison. And to be
- 7:21honest, this strikes me as plausible.
- 7:24And the reason I say this is for me,
- 7:26there's like a disconnect between like
- 7:27how I think about the mangas in the
- 7:29abstract and how I think about the
- 7:30mangas when I actually look at them,
- 7:32right? Like, if you were pitching a card
- 7:33game to me and you were pitching One
- 7:35Piece, and you were like, "And our
- 7:37ultimate chase cards are going to use
- 7:39the most iconic panels from the manga
- 7:42to make the cards. I'd be like, yeah,
- 7:44that's the sickest thing ever. Of
- 7:46course, those are going to be the best.
- 7:47Of course, those are going to be the
- 7:48most iconic chase cards, right?
- 7:50That super makes sense to me.
- 7:53But then when I look at them, the front
- 7:55art of the cards are just like not that
- 7:57compelling. And I feel like the SPs in a
- 7:59lot of way do a better job of capturing
- 8:01the richness that is the One Piece world
- 8:03and the characters than the mangas
- 8:05actually do.
- 8:07And then so this brings me to my second
- 8:09question and thought, which is that
- 8:10maybe the manga panels just capture the
- 8:13essence of One Piece better, right?
- 8:15Maybe seeing the actual panels
- 8:18brings back the nostalgia of, you know,
- 8:20reading the manga and capturing what
- 8:23it's all about, whereas seeing these SPs
- 8:25is just like, well, anybody could make
- 8:27art, right? Yeah, I mean, they're cool,
- 8:29but like anybody could make that. Like,
- 8:31this is what Oda drew. This is what I
- 8:33read, right? Maybe the mangas do a
- 8:35better job of capturing that and better
- 8:38reflecting like what One Piece really
- 8:40means to people. I super believe that
- 8:42that's possible. Um that as an
- 8:44articulation makes a ton of sense to me.
- 8:47So like, in my opinion, both of these
- 8:49things are plausible. And if either of
- 8:50them are true, if it's either the
- 8:51aesthetics or it's that the manga better
- 8:53captures the spirit of One Piece or some
- 8:55combination of both, like I could see
- 8:57this gap persisting long term. But the
- 8:58reason I wanted to have this
- 9:00conversation is I also think that there
- 9:01are some explanations that could result
- 9:04in the gap narrowing or disappearing
- 9:07over time.
- 9:08And the first is that, you know, mangas
- 9:10could simply have a market advantage in
- 9:12the way that PSA has a market advantage.
- 9:14And what I mean by that is that like the
- 9:16PSA product is not inherently better
- 9:18than any other grading company's
- 9:20product, but because they're the most
- 9:23well-known and because they're the most
- 9:25collected, collectors pay higher premium
- 9:28for them than they do for equivalent
- 9:29products, right? The same thing could be
- 9:32true here of mangas in that the mangas
- 9:35were known to be the chase cards in the
- 9:37very very beginning. That made them
- 9:39iconic. Everybody clung to them as the
- 9:41most expensive cards. And now we just
- 9:43have an expectation that they should be
- 9:46more expensive, even though the
- 9:47underlying data doesn't actually support
- 9:49it, right? And so like markets are
- 9:51ultimately propped up by people's
- 9:53expectations and agreement of what
- 9:54things should cost. And sometimes the
- 9:56momentum of just doing what we've always
- 9:59done can carry a lot. But at the same
- 10:01time, things do happen to break that
- 10:03momentum. And so we have to understand
- 10:06if we are paying a premium that is
- 10:07essentially a current market advantage,
- 10:10because then that's sort of like buying
- 10:11high, right? If that market advantage
- 10:13ever erodes, you're going to see those
- 10:15prices slip. And I think it's important
- 10:16to be aware of that. And I think the
- 10:18possibility, to me is the easiest one to
- 10:20try to root out, is could this be
- 10:22misinformation about rarity? Like most
- 10:25of the people that I talk to that don't
- 10:26spend all this time in the data that I
- 10:28do, think that mangas are the rarest
- 10:29cards. That makes sense. They're sold as
- 10:32the top chase cards. They're the most
- 10:33expensive cards. It would make sense
- 10:35that they're the rarest. But amazingly,
- 10:37a lot of the time, they're not. And so
- 10:39like I'm doing what I can to try to put
- 10:41that information out there to see if
- 10:44this is just an information asymmetry
- 10:46issue, right? I honestly don't know.
- 10:49We'll find out, maybe.
- 10:52So, I think this is another plausible
- 10:54explanation of why these might be
- 10:55overvalued. And if this is the reason,
- 10:58then this is very dangerous for their
- 10:59prices long-term, right? As the
- 11:02information disseminates into the
- 11:04market, you would expect the gap to
- 11:06shrink over time. And the reason I say
- 11:08this is because we have seen this happen
- 11:09before in other card games. So, I'm
- 11:11going to give you two quick examples. Uh
- 11:13the first is the Shinji Kanjira Magikarp
- 11:16from Paldea Evolved. So, when Paldea
- 11:19Evolved came out, the previous sets had
- 11:21had illustration rares, special
- 11:23illustration rares. And the special
- 11:24illustration rares had lower pull rates
- 11:26than the illustration rares.
- 11:28But then this set came out, and the pull
- 11:31rates were such that because there were
- 11:33more illustration rares than special
- 11:35illustration rares, the total population
- 11:38of cards ended up being the same. And so
- 11:41when the set came out, people were like,
- 11:43"Well, this is just an illustration
- 11:44rare. It's pretty common. It shouldn't
- 11:45be worth very much." And so it wasn't a
- 11:47very expensive card. And then when
- 11:49people realized that this actually was
- 11:52just as rare as any other card in the
- 11:53set,
- 11:54then the price jumped, right? Because
- 11:57they understood that even though it
- 11:58wasn't characterized as the super rare
- 12:01card that you should be trying to pull,
- 12:03in reality, it was just as hard to pull
- 12:06as any of those cards. And therefore,
- 12:07the preference for the art ended up
- 12:09carrying the day in a way that it hadn't
- 12:10previously. So, I think that is an
- 12:13example of something that could happen
- 12:14here if it is an information asymmetry
- 12:16issue.
- 12:18>> [snorts]
- 12:18>> And then the last example from Pokémon
- 12:20has to do with the Mega Charizard EXs,
- 12:22right? So, you have two different cards
- 12:25that came out in Phantasmal Flames. You
- 12:27have the Mega Hyper Rare, which has a
- 12:29pull rate of 1 in 1,260
- 12:32packs, and you have the special
- 12:34illustration rare Mega Charizard X
- 12:37that has a pull rate of 1 in 400 packs.
- 12:40So, the gold Mega Charizard X is way,
- 12:44way, way rarer than the special
- 12:46illustration rare, right? Like three
- 12:49times rarer. And yet, if you look at the
- 12:51price, the gold one is $320
- 12:54and the special illustration rare is
- 12:55$825.
- 12:57And so, even though it's rarer and even
- 12:59though Pokémon put it out to be like the
- 13:02most rare chase in the set,
- 13:05people like the art of the special
- 13:07illustration rare better. And so, they
- 13:10prioritize that and they spend more
- 13:12money on that. And so, like to parallel
- 13:15this to the mangas, like
- 13:17I don't know how much people genuinely
- 13:19love the mangas versus they just like
- 13:22think that they're the best chase card.
- 13:24And so, if a lot of their value is
- 13:26people thinking they're the best chase
- 13:27card,
- 13:29then someday the art may carry the day,
- 13:31right? Like when the demand exceeds
- 13:34supply, particularly as the game
- 13:36continues to grow, we could see the
- 13:38better art cards commanding more value
- 13:41because more new people coming in look
- 13:43at them and think, "Yeah, no, that's
- 13:45actually what I want. I don't care about
- 13:46the gold card. I want the one that has
- 13:48the really awesome art of my favorite
- 13:50characters on it, right?" And so, like,
- 13:53especially if the people who are coming
- 13:54into the game aren't as nostalgic for
- 13:58the actual manga uh as the people who
- 14:00started in the game, right? Maybe
- 14:02they're coming in through the anime or
- 14:03the live action. So, they may not care
- 14:04as much about the manga. So, for me, all
- 14:07of these are reasons why I could see the
- 14:09price eroding over time. And so, this is
- 14:11not to hate on mangas. I do think
- 14:13they're cool, but I just wanted to share
- 14:15this information because if you were
- 14:16spending a lot of money to buy a manga,
- 14:18I do think it's important to understand
- 14:20that it's not a given that these are
- 14:22going to remain the most expensive cards
- 14:24uh throughout the history of the game.
- 14:26One other possible explanation here that
- 14:28I really think we have to mention is
- 14:30that SPs could just be underrated. It
- 14:32could be that mangas aren't overrated
- 14:35compared to SPs. It could be that SPs
- 14:37are underrated compared to mangas and
- 14:39compared to other cards.
- 14:40Now, how would we prove this? I'll be
- 14:42honest, I haven't been able to come up
- 14:43with like an ironclad way to show
- 14:45whether SPs are undervalued
- 14:48uh or whether the mangas are overvalued.
- 14:50I do think that if SPs are undervalued,
- 14:52we would expect to see sort of like
- 14:54a relationship where they're being
- 14:56priced lower to other comparable cards
- 14:59based on their population. One of the
- 15:01things that we consistently see is even
- 15:02when mangas have higher populations than
- 15:05SPs, they're more expensive. So, if SPs
- 15:09don't have those relationships to alt
- 15:11arts, that could be an indication that
- 15:13they're undervalued. Or if they're
- 15:15consistently below those prices for alt
- 15:17arts, that could be an indication that
- 15:19they're undervalued. So, there's a lot
- 15:20of different ways that we could look at
- 15:21this, but I did want to compare them
- 15:22against alt arts to test this theory.
- 15:24So, I started by looking at what I
- 15:26thought was like the most
- 15:27apples-to-apples comparison I could find
- 15:29between SPs and alt arts. We have these
- 15:30two event mangas. They look pretty
- 15:33similar. They're both Luffy. The biggest
- 15:35difference here is that the Gum-Gum
- 15:37Giant, coming in PRB-02, for whatever
- 15:39reason, has the same pull rate as an SP,
- 15:41and the Gear 2 has the same pull rate as
- 15:44an alt art. So, what we have here are
- 15:46like wildly different populations.
- 15:48There's approximately, in my estimation,
- 15:50five times as many of the Gear 2s as
- 15:53there are of the Gum-Gum Giants. Uh and
- 15:55yet the Gum-Gum Giant is only about
- 15:57three times as expensive as the alt art.
- 16:00So, that shows that in this case the alt
- 16:02art actually has a more favorable
- 16:04relationship relative to rarity. So,
- 16:06relative to its rarity, the alt art is
- 16:08more expensive than the SP is. That's
- 16:10the type of thing that we would expect
- 16:11to see if SPs are undervalued across the
- 16:15board. And while I was able to find
- 16:18examples where the alt arts,
- 16:19particularly the most expensive alt
- 16:21arts, were more expensive relative to
- 16:23rarity than the SPs, for the most part I
- 16:25didn't find that. So, to give you
- 16:27another example, I took the most
- 16:28expensive Luffy SP, which is the wanted
- 16:31poster from OP-09, and I compared it
- 16:33against the most expensive of the Luffy
- 16:36normal alt arts,
- 16:37uh which is the OP-01 Luffy alt art. The
- 16:40SP here had a population of around 9,500
- 16:43and a price of 625, and then this alt
- 16:46art had a population of around 14,700
- 16:49and a price of 340. There were around
- 16:51two of these Luffy wanted posters for
- 16:53every three of the OP-01 Luffy alt art,
- 16:56and yet the wanted poster uh is about
- 16:591.8 times as expensive as the alt art.
- 17:03So, this actually shows a slightly
- 17:05favorable ratio for the SPs relative to
- 17:07its rarity, but it's pretty balanced.
- 17:09So, again, you know, this is another
- 17:11data point that I think is kind of
- 17:12mixed, but I think you could point to it
- 17:14and argue that maybe SPs are a little
- 17:16bit undervalued because they're being
- 17:18tracked so closely by the alt arts, but
- 17:21there are plenty of examples where the
- 17:22alt arts, you know, particularly when
- 17:24you get out of the top tiers of alt
- 17:26arts, are in like a totally different
- 17:28realm than the SPs in terms of how we
- 17:30price them. So, even going to like the
- 17:32second most expensive of the normal
- 17:33Luffy alt arts, I'm not going to talk
- 17:35about treasure rares here since they're
- 17:36a little bit different, but like if we
- 17:38look at the same Luffy wanted poster and
- 17:40we compare it to the second most
- 17:42expensive Luffy alt art, the OPO2 Luffy,
- 17:46uh again, you know, we have 9,500
- 17:49population for the SP, 14,500 population
- 17:52for the alt art. So, again, there's
- 17:53about two wanted posters for every three
- 17:56of the alt art Luffys, and yet the
- 17:57wanted poster is almost seven times as
- 18:00expensive as the alt art, right? So,
- 18:02that shows a pretty big premium for SPs,
- 18:05and while I wasn't able to do this
- 18:06analysis for lots of different cards, I
- 18:09suspect what we would see is the very
- 18:11most expensive alt arts, the very most
- 18:13expensive leader cards compare somewhat
- 18:16favorably or equally to the SPs, but
- 18:19then when we get into the lower
- 18:21categories like the floor for an SP
- 18:23relative to its rarity is much higher
- 18:25than it is for the alt arts. And so, for
- 18:28me, this data is a little bit mixed in
- 18:31terms of whether SPs are underrated or
- 18:33overrated. So, I guess what I would say
- 18:35is that there were probably some SPs
- 18:36that are underrated, some SPs that are
- 18:38pretty fairly rated, and there may even
- 18:40be a few SPs that are overvalued. You
- 18:42know, I'd make the same argument with
- 18:43the alt arts. But, this is different
- 18:45from what I'm seeing with the mangas,
- 18:47where the mangas, regardless of anything
- 18:49else, regardless of population,
- 18:52regardless of character, seem to have a
- 18:55really, really strong price premium that
- 18:57just isn't sensitive to any other data
- 18:59point, and that makes me concerned. So,
- 19:02whether you think the SPs are underrated
- 19:03or whether you think they're fairly
- 19:04priced, I do think that the data is
- 19:06pointing towards the mangas as a class
- 19:09being overrated relative to the SPs and
- 19:12probably also the leaders in the alt
- 19:14arts. You know, we haven't talked about
- 19:15promo cards at all.
- 19:17Promo cards I think will probably be a
- 19:18mixed bag. Maybe I'll look at that at
- 19:19some point in the future. So, for now,
- 19:21if you're buying these mangas because
- 19:22you absolutely love them and they are
- 19:23the pinnacle of One Piece for you, cool.
- 19:26No worries, right? Buy what you love.
- 19:28But, if you are buying the mangas
- 19:30because someone's telling you that this
- 19:31is the most iconic thing that you have
- 19:32to own, my recommendation is to think
- 19:35twice about it because to me these feel
- 19:38like they're overrated as a class. And
- 19:41if any of those things that we talked
- 19:42about do change in the future, we could
- 19:44see prices fall, and we could see them
- 19:45come more closely in line with the SPs.
- 19:48So, that's all I have for today. I hope
- 19:50you found this interesting. Uh I'm sure
- 19:52many of you disagree with what I have to
- 19:55say. Please hit me up in the comments
- 19:57and tell me why. I am happy to learn why
- 19:59I'm wrong on these subjects, but I
- 20:01thought it was a worthwhile discussion
- 20:02to have. So, you know, if you found the
- 20:04video interesting, please give us a
- 20:05like. If you haven't already, please
- 20:07subscribe. You know, if you're
- 20:08interested in picking up any of these
- 20:09cards, we have our TCGPlayer affiliate
- 20:11link, as well as our eBay storefront. If
- 20:13you do decide to purchase through there,
- 20:14we'll get a small commission, which is
- 20:16really, really helpful. Obviously, no
- 20:18pressure though. Uh and so, with that,
- 20:20as always, I appreciate your time, and I
- 20:22will see you in the next one.
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