Why China's population is shrinking — Transcript

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1. 0:01This chart shows China's birth and death rate
2. 0:03over the last 60 years.
3. 0:05For most of it, births are high.
4. 0:07But in 2022, China had more deaths than births
5. 0:11causing its population to decrease
6. 0:13for the first time in 6 decades.
7. 0:15To get why this is such a big deal, consider this:
8. 0:19China is the world's manufacturing superpower
9. 0:21and that's in large part because of its huge population.
10. 0:25Nearly 30% of the country's economic output
11. 0:28comes from manufacturing.
12. 0:29Now, here's China's population over the last 60 years.
13. 0:32Even after losing almost a million people in 2022
14. 0:36its population is still about as big as it's ever been:
15. 0:391.4 billion people.
16. 0:41But that's projected to shrink by nearly half
17. 0:43by the end of the century.
18. 0:45Over the years, China's growth and policies
19. 0:48have contributed to its population decline.
20. 0:50Today, it's looking to reverse course
21. 0:52to keep its population steady.
22. 0:54The problem is it might be too late.
23. 0:59In the 50s, under Mao, China experienced
24. 1:02one of the most gruesome famines on record.
25. 1:0430 million people died.
26. 1:07If we look at that on the birth and death rates chart
27. 1:10you'll see a big spike in deaths.
28. 1:11At the same time, the birth rate dropped
29. 1:14causing the population to shrink.
30. 1:16But, as often happens with wars, famines, and other major crises
31. 1:20immediately after, there was a baby boom.
32. 1:23Combined with global medical advances
33. 1:25that decreased infant mortality rates
34. 1:27China's average family now had 6 children.
35. 1:30The birth rate had skyrocketed
36. 1:32which the government saw as a big problem.
37. 1:34The Chinese leadership realized
38. 1:36the population was growing too fast
39. 1:38and something needs to be done.
40. 1:40The government came out with a policy...
41. 1:43They called it “Later, Longer, Fewer”.
42. 1:45Later marriages, longer birth intervals, and fewer births.
43. 1:50As a result, China's birth rate started trending down...
44. 1:53but it wasn't low enough for China's leaders.
45. 1:55And in 1980, they implemented the extreme one child policy
46. 2:00which limited most families to one child.
47. 2:02That policy was also backed up by very harsh measures.
48. 2:07There were campaigns of sterilization...
49. 2:10IUD insertion and induced abortions.
50. 2:13And while these campaigns began during the Later, Longer, Fewer era
51. 2:16they were at their worst under the one child policy
52. 2:19when China sterilized 20 million men and women
53. 2:22and induced nearly 15 million abortions in a single year.
54. 2:26But China had accomplished its goal.
55. 2:28Population growth was under control.
56. 2:30Except, as China would soon realize
57. 2:33these restrictive policies worked a little too well.
58. 2:38In order for any population
59. 2:40to stay the same size in the long run
60. 2:42each couple needs to have, on average, 2.1 children.
61. 2:46This is called the replacement rate.
62. 2:48The idea is that one child replaces one parent
63. 2:51and that 0.1 makes up for children who die
64. 2:54before they become adults.
65. 2:55But China has had a fertility rate
66. 2:57that's far below 2 for over 3 decades.
67. 3:01To bring that up
68. 3:01in 2016, China finally ended the one child policy.
69. 3:05And after briefly trying out a three child policy,
70. 3:08in 2021 they finally let families have as many children as they'd like.
71. 3:13But it hasn't worked.
72. 3:15One big reason is the unique family structure
73. 3:18produced by the one child policy.
74. 3:19We're looking at what's called a 4-2-1 family structure
75. 3:23with a couple having 4 parents above them and 1 child below.
76. 3:29Most countries have diverse family structures
77. 3:32some with 3 kids, others with none.
78. 3:34But with China's 4-2-1 model
79. 3:36millions of only children are under increasing pressure
80. 3:39to care for their aging parents and elderly grandparents.
81. 3:43And this can make having multiple children even harder...
82. 3:46especially as the cost of living keeps rising.
83. 3:50A recent survey revealed that more than 50% of young people
84. 3:53don't want more than one child
85. 3:55because of financial and work pressures.
86. 3:57We have seen cash subsidies for additional birth
87. 4:01longer maternal leaves...
88. 4:04subsidies for kindergarten
89. 4:07and all sorts of monetary support.
90. 4:10Well, the thing is, almost none of them have worked
91. 4:13because having a child is exceedingly expensive
92. 4:16and it's a lifelong commitment.
93. 4:20And so it's really actually hard...
94. 4:23to put a price on this.
95. 4:24But China's population crisis isn't just about babies.
96. 4:28It's also about the balance between young and old.
97. 4:32If we look at population pyramids that show distribution by age...
98. 4:36we see that countries like Kenya
99. 4:38with rapid population growth look like this:
100. 4:40wide at the bottom
101. 4:42representing a lot of new young people, and narrow at the top.
102. 4:45Countries experiencing slower growth
103. 4:47like the Philippines, are still triangular.
104. 4:49But the difference between top and bottom is less pronounced.
105. 4:52Now take a look at China, and notice the narrow bottom, so, fewer babies.
106. 4:57And the heavy top: a larger number of elderly people.
107. 5:00Which is a happy...
108. 5:02outcome of our improvement
109. 5:05in health and in standard of living
110. 5:07but combined with sustained low fertility...
111. 5:11that just produces sustained population aging.
112. 5:14In 2050, that pyramid is projected to look like this.
113. 5:19And that will further drive down China's population
114. 5:22shrink its labor force and put the whole country
115. 5:25in a uniquely difficult position.
116. 5:30In the 80s, China became a hotspot for foreign investment
117. 5:33cheap manufacturing and exports.
118. 5:36A generation later, it was shooting up the ranks
119. 5:38and becoming one of the world's leading
120. 5:40and fastest growing economies by GDP.
121. 5:43But not only did that economic modernization
122. 5:45drive birthrates down further, it also didn't
123. 5:48translate to an equally strong economy for everyone.
124. 5:51If we look at the GDP per capita
125. 5:53the best indicator we have for standard of living
126. 5:56China is much lower than these high income countries.
127. 6:00China became a major world economy nearly overnight
128. 6:03but it's still a middle income country.
129. 6:06Many, especially in rural areas
130. 6:08haven't benefited much from China's economic boom...
131. 6:11and China has yet to develop the necessary safety nets
132. 6:14to support its aging population.
133. 6:17To build the social infrastructure...
134. 6:20like the social programs in health care and in pensions...
135. 6:26It takes time.
136. 6:27And that's getting...
137. 6:29actually tougher with the economy that's slowing down.
138. 6:32And a slower economy will inevitably redefine
139. 6:35China's role in the world as a manufacturing superpower.
140. 6:39What this means for China, for the world
141. 6:40is that the resource constraints from within...
142. 6:44would also constrain Chinese ambition...
143. 6:48and its global reach.
144. 6:52In some ways, China isn't alone.
145. 6:54A lot of Asian and European countries
146. 6:56are experiencing population declines, too.
147. 6:59What makes China different is how fast this all has happened.
148. 7:03It was only 40 years ago
149. 7:04that China started leveraging its booming population
150. 7:07to become an economic superpower...
151. 7:10all while still trying to stem population growth.
152. 7:13Now that China's population growth is officially over...
153. 7:16China may have to rethink its future
154. 7:18not just as a global superpower
155. 7:19but for its citizens at home too.