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Why Bitcoin Wins No Matter What The Fed Does — Transcript

by Anthony Pompliano · 10,442 words · 1,504 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00I think crypto would go up far faster
0:02than people realize
0:03>> Bitco
0:07that that type of move to me and the
0:08reason I say it with conviction the more
0:12I'm talking to people let's say
0:14traditional finance [music] so related
0:16to the banks cuz remember the banks are
0:17out there telling people they're ready
0:19for this they're going to be involved
0:20you know all this stuff tokenization
0:23pension funds need regulations what's
0:26going on guys today we got a great
0:27conversation with Jordi Visser in this
0:29When we talk about what's going on with
0:31oil, inflation, why the doomers are
0:33wrong, why the stock market's going
0:34higher, why Bitcoin's going higher, why
0:36the AI companies are going higher,
0:37what's going on with Astra, Grockbot,
0:40how Jordy's using these technologies,
0:41and then we even get into what's going
0:43on with Kevin Walsh, Scott Bessant,
0:44President Trump, are you going to bet
0:46against the White House? Should you
0:47think that the market is going higher?
0:49And what does all this mean for your
0:50portfolio? This one is fun. It's
0:52informative, and I promise you're going
0:54to learn something. Here's my latest
0:55conversation with Jordy Visser. All
0:57right, Jordy. I hear a lot of people in
0:59the macro world talking about interest
1:00rates and oil. I know people have been
1:02talking to you about this recently. Uh
1:04when I'm using AI, when I'm thinking
1:06about Bitcoin, and then I hear someone
1:08talking about interest rates and oil, my
1:10brain is telling me, "Oh, yeah, that's
1:12what we're supposed to think about in
1:13the macro world, but my heart's kind of
1:15telling me like, does that stuff really
1:16matter anymore?" What do you think?
1:19Well, it depends what you mean by does
1:20it matter. For me, I love it. Um, in the
1:25video I did this past weekend, I was as
1:27direct as possible.
1:29We're worried
1:31about whether the Fed is going to raise
1:3325 basis points. And I think the curve
1:37says they're going to raise 25, but
1:41maybe there'll be one more, possibly two
1:44more before they come back down.
1:48Why anyone would care about this when
1:51earnings are growing 30 plus%. Is beyond
1:54me. Why anyone would care about this
1:55when, as I showed in the video, there is
1:58no rate sensitivity
2:00to the AI trade. Zero. Like despite what
2:03people want to believe and the bare porn
2:06that goes everywhere with like, oh,
2:07rates are going higher. These guys can't
2:09raise rates. Their CDS is blowing out.
2:11Um,
2:13progress is moving right now at a pace
2:16so fast and is accelerating by the day.
2:18Not by the week anymore, by the day. The
2:20models are getting released. I was
2:21talking about Grockbot the last two
2:23weeks. Today we'll talk about Astra. I
2:26don't I I mean I have Grockbot doing
2:28things for me, but it's not even in
2:30league of anything I can do with Astra
2:32now, which is now combining the agentic
2:34side with the chat, with the work, with
2:36images, with everything else. Um, so
2:39when people talk about rates and yeah, I
2:41I had a bunch of conversations this week
2:43where I'd get a text message from again
2:46people I've known in the business a long
2:48time starting with the market's going to
2:51fall because rates are going higher and
2:52oil is going higher. And I'm like, did
2:55you watch my video? Like year-over-year
2:57oil for the sixth contract
3:01is up 20% from where it was a year ago.
3:04Why do you care about this? Just because
3:07you see a chart that shows it making the
3:09highest price for the December contract
3:11when it's below where it was. Didn't we
3:13just go through this stupidity with
3:16every oil person saying that we'd be I
3:19mean we were supposed to be out of
3:21gasoline in California during July.
3:26So like if some if people are that wrong
3:29and now we're 6 7 months from the
3:32beginning of the war and we've now heard
3:35that they're building pipelines so that
3:38Hormuz is not as important or not
3:41important at all at some point 3 years
3:44from now. Why do you don't think the
3:47market is smart enough to look through
3:48this? But most importantly again I'll
3:50say it. If earnings were only growing 5%
3:54a year and if the economy was sensitive
3:57to interest rates because what was
3:59driving the economy was like what was
4:00driving the economy before the great
4:02financial crisis which was housing rate
4:04sensitive stuff. I I I'd worry but the
4:08economy is now digital. The economy is
4:11not based on what we thought it was with
4:13autos and this. We know that people are
4:15not going out and borrowing money to buy
4:17housing. We know they're not going out
4:19borrowing money to buy cars the way they
4:20did, but the household net worth is
4:23going higher because profit margins are
4:24booming and the stock market's going
4:26higher. So, I just think when I listen
4:28to a are we going to raise 25 or not and
4:31oil's up and 10ear yields are up 35 to
4:3540 basis points since July. I just think
4:39people are they're missing the story for
4:41what's happening and this is a
4:42reflection that people just either don't
4:43believe in AI or they don't use it. I
4:45have a uh a new framework to put people
4:47bucket-wise in. There's static people
4:49and dynamic people. What I mean by that
4:51is usually you think about I want people
4:53who work for me or work with me or I
4:55work for who are dynamic. They're
4:57constantly learning. They're constantly
4:58evolving. They're constantly improving.
5:00Dynamic people is the same thing like a
5:02volatile asset, right? You need
5:04volatility for it to go up. So I think
5:06people who are intelligent and want
5:08returns, they're drawn to dynamic and
5:09volatile. But actually you can put
5:12people in bucket of do they think
5:14statically or dynamically. So for
5:17example uh tariffs are going to lead to
5:20all these crazy prices blah blah
5:21whatever. Static people just looked at
5:23it as the tariff increases that means
5:24that inflation increases. Dynamic people
5:26say well if tariffs increase then does
5:29domestic manufacturing increase does
5:30this happen? Does this have what are the
5:32other tools the government has to blunt
5:33the effects? Oh maybe it's not going to
5:36be as big of a problem. Oil is another
5:38good example right now. If we go into
5:40Iran, then oil will spike. And if oil
5:42spikes, then that means that every
5:44single person's paying $10 at the gas
5:46pump, and you know, we're going to blow
5:48out inflation, etc. Dynamic people
5:50think, well, what if we have our own oil
5:53or Venezuelan oil or maybe we have a
5:55pipeline that we build or maybe the
5:56economy isn't as stuck with the oil
5:58sensitivity that it used to be. And so
6:01when you think about this like static
6:02verse dynamic, I actually think that
6:03almost all of the like you know fear
6:06porn kind of doomsday predicting is
6:08people who are just looking at it from a
6:09in this moment in time X happened so Y
6:12has to happen cuz I've read it in a
6:13textbook but actually the people who are
6:15on the internet they are so used to the
6:18speed of information the dynamic nature
6:19and they've seen this play out enough
6:21times now where almost all of the
6:24doomsday saying is coming from like the
6:26traditional world of people who are just
6:27now like getting on the internet but the
6:29people who have been on the for a long
6:30time and I would put the AI people, the
6:32crypto people, etc. They're actually not
6:34bearish at all. Like they're super
6:35bullish almost to the point where
6:36actually they're getting accused of
6:37being too optimistic, you know, that AGI
6:40is going to like, you know, kill
6:41humanity. Like I mean like crazy crazy
6:43stuff. So I do think in a weird way it
6:46maybe it's me just rationalizing being
6:48terminally online now is such an
6:49advantage because it keeps your brain
6:51from like getting to be hard cement and
6:53looking at the world statically, but
6:54like what you're describing is really
6:55just a dynamic view of how the economy
6:57is playing out.
6:59So yeah, the only thing I would disagree
7:01with what you said at the very end there
7:02is I think being online is super
7:04critical all the time as opposed to be
7:05sitting at a job and maybe looking at a
7:07screen, but you also have to be curious
7:10enough to look at all angles from a
7:11story. If you just get caught watching
7:14Fox News or or MSNBC, you're not really
7:17changing your brain. Um, I think the
7:19point you're making, so let me use an
7:21analogy and just say, um, you know, one
7:24of the great things about being a sports
7:25fan and especially using the Knicks, if
7:27you go back to Jaylen Brunson in college
7:30and you look at him today and you would
7:33have asked
7:35a million people when he came out of
7:37Villanova and was a second round draft
7:38pick, if he would become one of the top
7:4010 players in the world, the answer
7:43would be zero chance. Like, he's not
7:46going to morph into that. And they would
7:48use the traditional things of, well,
7:50he's not athletic enough. He's short.
7:53Like, he's how how is that going to turn
7:55into something? You still have people
7:56that said, you can't win a championship
7:58with your best player being someone like
8:00Jaylen Rose, even when he had evolved
8:02into an all-star.
8:04>> The thing is Jaylen Brunson got better
8:06every single year.
8:08>> Um, that is the whole point of AI right
8:10now. And if you're living on the past
8:14when historically oil's gone higher and
8:17like people will say inflation's high
8:19and I'm like core CPI is 2.4%
8:21year-over-year.
8:23You pick the highest one PCE core
8:26year-over-year which is going to be
8:28revised. It changed and Kevin Worsh has
8:31publicly said he doesn't agree with PCA
8:34cores being he's got a whole group
8:36getting together to figure out what they
8:37should look at. I I just think people in
8:40this dynamic side um and as someone who
8:43grew up this way, I was trained to be a
8:44trader. I sat in front of screens minute
8:46by minute. If people haven't done it, I
8:49mean, you get caught thinking every
8:52single thing that comes out for a second
8:54matters in some big scheme. So, when
8:56people text me now and I don't have that
8:57side, I'm like working on AI and this
8:59happened to me uh when the PPI came out.
9:02People were like, "Oh, stocks care about
9:04this." And I remember saying like, "What
9:06are you are you kidding me? What what do
9:08you mean they care about this?
9:09>> But is that an opportunity? Like is it
9:11is it almost like hey let let the market
9:14react to the old world you know economic
9:17data points etc. And then you could
9:19almost arbitrage and say I have a medium
9:22to long-term view on these and so when
9:24they dislocate based on these short-term
9:26metrics just like have emotional control
9:28and capitalize on it.
9:30>> Yes. So he this gets into the market
9:32structure thing and I believe we've
9:34talked about this before and I think
9:36everyone who works on Wall Street will
9:38laugh at this.
9:40Everyone who works at a hedge fund and
9:43having done it and having people work
9:45for me, they really are measured in many
9:48many ways minuteto minute like they have
9:51a draw down level which means that if
9:53something happens in their portfolio and
9:55it draws down 50 basis points on a day
9:57when they're running a market neutral
9:59portfolio and they they're only allowed
10:01to have a 5% draw down. Well, they've
10:03now lost onetenth of what they can lose.
10:07Will it affect their emotion? Of course.
10:09and they start extrapolating that this
10:11could get worse. What is happening in
10:13the market structures? I think you
10:14should break it into three simple
10:16buckets. One is there's the active
10:18traders that have a a draw down level
10:20where their capital will change and
10:22their kids won't be able to go to
10:24private school anymore. You have AI
10:27agents which don't have any kids and
10:29don't care about anything and their job
10:30is just to make money. They don't have
10:32the emotion that or the the the bars
10:34that that they have fixed rules but they
10:36don't have that stuff. And then you have
10:38retail traders sitting at home or anyone
10:40that has a longer time horizon that
10:42doesn't have to respond to oh the PPI.
10:44And that's to your point. Now that I'm
10:47in that crowd, meaning I'm managing my
10:49own money, I want bad news to happen at
10:52a time when people are panicking,
10:53especially when it comes to crypto where
10:54I think we're at the beginning of a mega
10:56bull market. It helps me to be able to
10:58get entry points into things if these
11:00guys are worried. I think the agents do
11:03respond to what the hedge fund people
11:05are reacting to. Meaning, oh,
11:08historically, if the PBI comes out a
11:09little bit hotter and rates go higher,
11:11then we need to sell stocks. And the
11:13agents go, fine, we're going to sell
11:14stocks, too. We're going to jump in
11:15front of you. But then the next day, the
11:17agents don't care about what happened
11:18the day before. They're looking at
11:19what's going to happen today. What are
11:20the hedge fun guys doing today? Okay,
11:21I'm going to go buy in front of them.
11:22And I think this is becoming a a very
11:24dangerous game because when I talk to
11:27people who are still managing money, the
11:29market, they complain about it. It's not
11:32easy to trade because you're getting
11:33these herkyjerky moves every day and
11:36there's no consistency. And so my belief
11:39is that we are in a speed of a game that
11:42has changed dramatically. And the people
11:43that have the big advantage now are the
11:45people that can look through it and say,
11:46"Well, I know the earnings of the S&P
11:48are going to be up 20% next year." So,
11:50and I know there's not going to be a
11:51recession. I know rates don't matter. I
11:53know oil doesn't matter. So, if these
11:54guys are going to over overreact to this
11:56stuff, well, it gives me a better entry
11:57point. I think that's what's happening
11:58for a lot of different people in the
12:00marketplace.
12:01>> Are the Bitcoin and crypto people better
12:02suited to invest today because they've
12:04been through so much volatility in such
12:06a short period of time?
12:08>> Yeah, it goes further than that. Um,
12:11the question I get asked most by people
12:15getting into crypto now that I've spent
12:17a lot of time there is how do we value
12:18it? And I've started I'm going to write
12:21a paper this week or I already I already
12:23wrote 75% of it. Um I had to do a lot of
12:27research. I had to find a person which I
12:29did and I'm going to show it on the
12:31video this week who went through a
12:32metric and the reason this person was
12:34interesting he he's part of the Ethereum
12:36or was I think he's still part of the
12:38Ethereum foundation. He was also part of
12:40the Salana whatever it was foundation.
12:43Um
12:45the interesting part is he really talks
12:47about
12:49valuing and let's just take Ethereum
12:50because that's where his focus is
12:54as the ecosystem and its most similar
12:57comparison is the internet. And so
12:59regardless I don't like people getting
13:01into philosophical debates. I'm old
13:04enough to remember the way people valued
13:06the internet back in the '9s. And people
13:08have to think about this now. Most
13:10people that we're talking to were not
13:12trading during the '9s. During the '90s
13:15when the internet started and when we
13:16led into the dotcom bubble, the way they
13:18were valuing Amazon was eyeballs. And he
13:22mentions like we didn't have metrics
13:24back then. And he goes through like it
13:27was eyeballs, it was clicks, it was a
13:28bunch of different things, but it didn't
13:30mean anything. Now he was involved with
13:32Napster, so he's an original
13:33peer-to-peer person. That's what makes
13:35his angle so interesting. I also think
13:37he's very academic and boring, which is
13:40why whenever I've asked people in
13:42crypto, they don't either they've never
13:44heard of him or they've never followed
13:46him. I listened to him. I went, "This
13:48guy finally hit on it." Like for crypto
13:50to be valued as something, we don't know
13:52what the metrics are going to be. And
13:54we're starting to see that with Robin
13:56Hood chain. I
13:57>> what's going on there?
13:59>> We're the volumes are picking up.
14:01Everything is starting to go with
14:03tokenization. And again, if I go through
14:05the this year, the importance of the
14:06ecosystem and I think of pers, I think
14:09of prediction markets, I think of all of
14:12the things like SpaceX, what its
14:15valuation was before it went public and
14:17how quickly the market kind of migrated
14:18around to it. This 24/7 active trading
14:21and what Robin Hood chain built on
14:24Ethereum is doing through Arbitum is
14:27literally saying we're at the beginning
14:29of tokenization. Like we're we're
14:31literally at the beginning of it. Now,
14:33we've talked about it a lot and I've
14:34said that the network effects will kick
14:36in if you take what's happening now and
14:39the person's name that I was referencing
14:40and I I I don't know the proper way to
14:43pronounce it, but William Goyabber.
14:45Okay, if you go back, he was on a he did
14:47a TED talk somewhere around 2015.
14:51I asked Chat GPT from the transcript to
14:54go through and say how much of what he
14:56said back then about the blockchain, it
14:57was all on the blockchain is correct.
15:00and it went through and said his vision
15:02of what was happening was about an eight
15:04and a half out of 10. If we drill down
15:06to each separate component, it's about a
15:08five, five out of 10. But 8 and a half
15:11out of 10 for the general thing of the
15:12importance of the blockchain and what
15:14will happen eventually over time. And so
15:16the Robin Hood chain, fast forward 11
15:18years,
15:20that's what's going on right now. like
15:21we're starting to get to the point where
15:23tokenization is happening and even
15:24though it's being driven predominantly
15:26by memecoins at this point in terms of
15:29the volumes that's what should be
15:30happening and I mentioned bucket last
15:32week and I said this is a memecoin but
15:34with other component parts of the
15:36programmable side that people should be
15:38paying attention to because it's a
15:40leadin to what is going to happen more
15:41and more on Robin Hood chain. So for me
15:44in thinking about the crypto side and
15:45what's actually gone on, I again believe
15:48that people that were trained in crypto,
15:51number one, they deal with speed. Number
15:54two, they deal with quote unquote pump
15:56and dump or things that move a certain
15:58way. They get used to the volatility.
16:00They've been bred on it. But the other
16:02thing is how do you value a market, the
16:05S&P 500, in a world that of exponential
16:09as opposed to linear? And that's why
16:11when you go to my website and you go
16:13look, I've got a V for Visser. The left
16:16side of the V is linear. The right side
16:18is a parabola. And the reason it's a
16:20parabola is because when things start
16:22changing quickly, the only people, in my
16:24opinion, that can deal with the
16:26movements are people that have been
16:27trained in trading in chaos. I grew up
16:29in emerging markets. I think crypto is a
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17:29to get started today. Robin Hood chain
17:32is like explain maybe just in a little
17:34bit of detail what exactly is happening
17:36there and uh it seems like they really
17:38have pushed themselves to the frontier
17:40in terms of they now I think make more
17:43revenue off of the prediction markets
17:45than they do off of stocks. They have
17:47really doubled down on agentic trading.
17:50Um I think public many others have done
17:53that as well. Um, but it does feel like
17:56Robin Hood, which started out as like
17:58come buy stocks and don't pay a
18:00commission, was pretty dead square in
18:04the center of like traditional finance.
18:06And the like challenger type attitude
18:09was around fees.
18:10>> Mhm.
18:12they have completely migrated to like
18:13let's be on the frontier of the products
18:15we offer and how people interact and and
18:17has become almost more of a challenger
18:20you know type uh neo bank um or like
18:22fintech than where they started which is
18:25very unique. Usually you start off as
18:26like the most extreme version and then
18:28you become more of like the man, right?
18:30They seem to be going the opposite
18:31direction with at their size and scale
18:34seems, you know, a little bit uh
18:36unexpected.
18:37>> Well, let's go back to the title of my
18:39research. AI crypto macro nexus. So,
18:43what's the macro part of Robin Hood?
18:45Well, it's the original stock trading
18:46side. What's the crypto side? Well, now
18:48we've got Robin Hood chain. What's the
18:50AI side? Well, we have the Agentic
18:52plugin that's going to this. Um, I think
18:55what Vlad has done and he spoke this
18:56week at at a Goldman Sachs conference.
18:59You mentioned some of the numbers. They
19:01are, and I wrote a paper on this for
19:03people who are in the traditional
19:05finance world. Robin Hood is the company
19:06to go look at to figure out what this
19:09means in terms of this merge that's
19:10happening. It's the problem that people
19:12have is how do we value this? Well,
19:14tokenization is something that you and I
19:16have talked about and it is probably the
19:20I'm at Freedom Tech next week. Are you
19:22going to Freedom Tech? Okay. Um, I'm
19:25looking forward to doing my presentation
19:26down there. And the reason is because
19:29when I put the slides together, one of
19:32them is about this bridge being built
19:34right now. And tokenization for me is
19:36the bridge between the two worlds
19:37because Robin Hood has a community of
19:39traders. And I mentioned last week that
19:41when I went to a Robin Hood event last
19:43year to speak on a panel, I was blown
19:47away by the community aspect. Now, this
19:48is after I had been at your event. I'd
19:50been at Raul Powell's event and I saw
19:52this community which was very different
19:54than events I went to on Wall Street.
19:56There's no community. It's literally
19:57like you put a bunch of people to get
19:59together, they want to kill each other.
20:01It's it's a competitive world. While a
20:03community of Robin Hood, of crypto is
20:06very different. And so, I think Robin
20:07Hood merges not just these technologies
20:10together, I think it merges this
20:12community aspect. And it's very easy to
20:14take the community that is trying to
20:16make money as a group trading on stocks.
20:18They don't care whether it's Palunteer.
20:21They don't care whether it's Micron.
20:24They don't care whether it's
20:26Ethereum, whether it's a meme, whether
20:30it's Bucket. It doesn't really matter to
20:31them. They're just trying to make money.
20:33And they're doing it in a way. And Robin
20:35Hood has, yes, they've changed their
20:37business enough that the reason I wrote
20:38a paper on them was they got a couple
20:41upgrades last week. and specifically
20:43Morgan Stanley publicly upgraded the
20:47stock. It was not based on the crypto
20:49revenues though. It was based on other
20:52things and the fact that the company was
20:54becoming a little bit like Apple,
20:56meaning multiple service revenue
20:58streams. And I think that's the thing to
21:00go through when you go back to the
21:01William Goyabber stuff. I believe that
21:05we are leaving a world of revenues and
21:07we are entering a world of two things
21:09that have value. trust and that's where
21:12Ethereum becomes really important. It's
21:14where Bitcoin becomes really important
21:15because I think in a world of AI people
21:17are underestimating the amount of
21:18hackings and the lack of trust that will
21:20be there and the trust that a company
21:22will be here in a decade and we can talk
21:25more about that with some of the things
21:26with Astra. But I think terminal value
21:27is declining. So trust is number one.
21:30The second thing is velocity of of of
21:33it's the flow. It's the volume. It is
21:36just the mass of speed. And AI agents
21:39get a hell of a lot more done than
21:41humans. So, we're leaving a world where
21:42human beings were doing the trading and
21:44doing the consuming and doing
21:46everything. And we're getting to one
21:47where AI agents are doing more and more.
21:49And so, Robin Hood is built for that.
21:51You mentioned the agentic trading side.
21:53I just did a video which is going to go
21:55up on my subscriber wall this week to
21:56teach people how to build and back test
21:59a model using a a a GitHub code that I
22:03put together that they can then pull in,
22:06stick it in their own LLM and then back
22:08test something to create a signal model
22:10and I go through a training episode of
22:13how they can do this and where the edges
22:14are for the humans and where the edges
22:16are for AI so that they and I think
22:18retail traders are very good at this so
22:20I think it's going to work well but then
22:21take that information and plug it into
22:24Robin Hood. And it's not just Robin
22:25Hood. Mumu has this. Interactive Brokers
22:27have this. Like the Agentic side where
22:30you can do it and you can paper trade
22:31it. You don't have to put money in. But
22:33I think it's really important for
22:34parents to have their kids do this
22:35because doing this type of stuff is the
22:38beginning of training your children on
22:40how to be entrepreneurs. And I've talked
22:42about my son on this point. I don't talk
22:44about my daughters as much because
22:45they're in the healthc care field.
22:46They're helping people. My son's going
22:48to be more of an entrepreneur, but he's
22:50using agents daily. And I think for
22:53parents out there and everyone, what
22:54Robin Hood is allowing you to do is
22:56actually become a training ground for
22:58building stuff. So, I think of Robin
22:59Hood definitely in kind of the Apple App
23:01Store place, multiple revenue streams,
23:04and it's expanding not just with
23:05prediction markets, but also with what
23:06they've been doing right now with the
23:07trading side on Robin Hood chain.
23:09>> You mentioned earlier that you think
23:10crypto is on the cusp of a very big bull
23:14market. Is that a in the month of
23:17September type thing? Is that a through
23:19the end of Q4 we should expect this?
23:20What how do you think about timing for
23:22the next great Bitcoin bull market?
23:25>> Well, I and I hate I hate for people to
23:28have to sit there and acknowledge it
23:30this way. So, quarter to date when we
23:33come to sit in here the best performing
23:34asset by far of all the major assets and
23:37I I'll say major assets by anything
23:39that's worth that has a valuation of
23:41let's say more than a hundred billion.
23:43Ethereum is by far the best performing
23:45asset. Like not even close. Uh it's I
23:47think it's almost double Bitcoin quarter
23:49to date. While the S&P 500's around
23:52flat, NASDAQ's around flat. So we've so
23:56far had Bitcoin and crypto outperforming
23:59for a quarter while stocks have done
24:01nothing. Um I think that's good. That's
24:05very good. But the importance of that is
24:07the low correlation. But it also means
24:09the next thrust to me stocks will go up
24:11with crypto with it. So, I do think
24:13we're at the beginning stages of getting
24:16away. I have been very surprised at how
24:21I don't want to say negative, but how
24:26little people want to embrace this. I
24:27don't hear crypto people as like uber
24:29bullish. At least, let's say the regular
24:32people that I talk to on a they're
24:33they're skeptical because
24:35>> the crypto people are skeptical about
24:36Bitcoin and crypto's recent rally.
24:38>> Well, that we're not going to retest the
24:40lows first. Um
24:42>> they're they're worried that we will.
24:43>> Yeah, they're worried that we will. And
24:44I guess that makes sense. That's the way
24:45it should be after a bare market.
24:47>> They got four cycles psychosis, you
24:49know. Yeah. It's like, hey, October's
24:50the bottom. That's what they've that's
24:51what they've been told. They line up
24:53their charts. I get it. I you know, I'm
24:55starting to lean more towards how
24:56important the Clarity Act um situation
25:00is. Not it's not going to stop what's
25:02going on regardless of what happens cuz
25:04they're going to put rules in place. But
25:08if anything positive happens on on
25:10clarity and it's funny you you go into X
25:12you read Brian Armstrong you read you
25:14know um I forget Patrick's name what's
25:17the
25:17>> Patrick Whit I mean they've been very
25:19positive this week that it's going to
25:21surprise the prediction markets which
25:23are below 20% it but I think that's for
25:25this year we if we got anything positive
25:28on clarity
25:30I think crypto would go up far faster
25:32than people realize
25:34>> big 100k if we get clarity Yes, I that
25:37that type of move to me and the reason I
25:39say it with conviction,
25:41the more I'm talking to people, let's
25:44say traditional finance, so related to
25:46the banks, cuz remember the banks are
25:47out there telling people they're ready
25:49for this, they're going to be involved,
25:50you know, all this stuff, tokenization,
25:54pension funds need regulations for this.
25:57And so for the ecosystem as a whole,
25:59which is really the most important thing
26:00to me, um, Bitcoin can keep going higher
26:03and it can
26:06drag a little bit of glass on here.
26:10Um, uh, Bitcoin can rally high.
26:12>> You ever seen someone get wounded on a
26:14podcast? You just did.
26:16>> It's all good. Uh,
26:19um, [clears throat]
26:21if clarity goes through, I think the
26:22ecosystem will be valued higher
26:24immediately because I think this opens
26:26up investment from pension funds, which
26:28are critical to the overall size of the
26:31money coming in. I think they need
26:33regulation. I think they need something
26:35to be able to again they're fiduciary.
26:37They can't just jump into something.
26:39Bitcoin has been around long enough that
26:40they can do that. But I think investing
26:42in the ecosystem, which is what the
26:44entrepreneurs need. I don't think it's a
26:46venture thing. I I think it's a pension
26:48thing. And I I think if clarity goes
26:50through, it's a big deal. It does feel
26:52to me like um clarity can't hurt and not
26:56like by it not being passed it can't
26:57hurt but it would be a a net new buyer
27:00entering the market or at least getting
27:01more excited and kind of sending us
27:03upward. Um on AI there's been a ton of
27:06stuff that's come out. Uh GPT live one I
27:10think it's called like the voice um
27:12Astra got released. Uh we got a whole
27:15debate as to whether OpenAI was
27:16unethically looking at mathematicians uh
27:20potential solutions to these uh century
27:22old problems. Um we have a guy who uh
27:26got a job at Anthropic for 6 weeks,
27:28quit, says it AI is going to kill
27:30everybody, but then somehow he's part of
27:32like the Doomer crowd and they're all
27:33retweeting him and like piling on. Seems
27:35kind of like a scop, but unclear
27:38what the hell is going on in AI.
27:41[laughter]
27:41I mean, there was like a year's worth of
27:43progress in the last seven days.
27:46>> Well, and you not only have that, I
27:47mean, Paul Tudtor Jones wrote an op-ed
27:49in the Wall Street Journal and I think
27:51uh I think Greg Jensen from Bridgewater
27:53also came out um again on the risks with
27:57AI and how um I think the I think
28:00Jensen's thing was it's going to kill
28:02people. Jensen said that.
28:04>> Yeah, I've seen the news today or
28:06something. Um here here's the thing. Um,
28:09I am a person that believes that any
28:12progress in AI from this point, we
28:16should be expecting there to be
28:18problems. I mean, I don't know if you
28:20heard the Boston Scientific News this
28:22week, but they had a hacking and they
28:25basically said they're not going to meet
28:26their earnings numbers for the rest of
28:28this year and they had to take them down
28:30and had an impact on some other stocks
28:31like Striker. Uh, and then there was a
28:34power plant hack in the UK. Uh, and I
28:38think we got some information on Iran's
28:42plans on hacking and everything.
28:44>> This is a crazy story. Yeah. So, first
28:45of all, I'm an investor in a company
28:47called Galvanic. I'm going to give them
28:48a shout out. Uh, somebody who worked uh
28:51at the White House left and his whole
28:53thing was we need to secure the critical
28:57infrastructure in America from cyber
28:58attacks. And when he first started
29:00talking about this a couple years ago,
29:01people are like, "What are you talking
29:02about?" He's like, "Yeah, water
29:02treatment plants, you know, power
29:04plants, whatever."
29:06Josh Steman looks like a genius right
29:08now. [laughter]
29:10Like do not go short Joshua Stein. Uh so
29:13that that's on the power plan stuff.
29:15This Iran story is almost literally you
29:19couldn't put it in a movie. So for those
29:20who don't know, Iran was supposedly
29:23taking their war plans, the Ayatollah's
29:27funeral plans, uh targeting lists of
29:30people, spreadsheets, all this stuff,
29:32and they were feeding it to Claude. Now,
29:35it does make sense like if you want
29:37superhuman intelligence, it's probably
29:38smarter than anyone in Iran cuz it's
29:39smarter than anyone in the United
29:40States. So, like, okay. Um, but then
29:43Claude was like, "Wait a minute. We're
29:45not going to let Iran use our computing
29:47intelligence to
29:50then plan killing people or all this
29:53kind of crazy stuff." So, they had the
29:55plans [laughter] and I'm assuming they
29:58turned it over to the government. Like
30:01>> that's kind of the same thing that
30:02OpenAI is being accused of on the
30:04mathematician problem of like oh that's
30:07uh you guys going to solve that century
30:08old problem. It'd be a shame if we
30:10figured out the exact same way to solve
30:12the problem which I'm not saying that
30:13they did it but if they are training the
30:16model on the questions that are being
30:18asked and then all of a sudden they
30:20solved the problem.
30:22>> It does feel like privacy does feel like
30:24data security does feel like owning your
30:26own intelligence is going to become
30:27pretty important here.
30:29All right. So,
30:31we've we're for anyone who either
30:35doesn't know these stories or doesn't
30:37know the importance of both of them and
30:39especially the the Navier Stokes part.
30:43Um, if you're living in a world talking
30:45about oil and interest rates going
30:47higher, again, I I ju I just want to say
30:49we are so far past everything now. Uh, I
30:52asked Chachi PT what the IQ of Astra is
30:54because I used Astra on um on lab on
30:59Labor Day and I built a model a signal
31:02model [clears throat] and it led me to
31:03doing the video that I mentioned and the
31:05reason was that I was blown away with
31:07the step function change in this. Now I
31:09had talked about Crockbot for two weeks
31:11here. Astra took me to another level. So
31:14these stories that are coming out,
31:16whether it's the doomer story or whether
31:17it's the progress story, uh the reality
31:20is AI is here and it has a huge impact.
31:22When you go through the astride and I
31:24listened to an interview with Greg
31:25Brockman on TBPN,
31:28um where when you listen to it,
31:30basically we've reached the point where
31:32okay, we used to have chat and we had
31:34openclaw. Then we had chat, co-work, and
31:39openclaw.
31:40Well, now we have
31:43co-work and claude code and claude chat.
31:47What Brockman said is basically
31:49everything now is inside
31:53chat GPT.
31:56what happened with what they did and I
31:58think people should spend time on the
32:00Navier Stokes thing from and if you
32:03listen to Moonshots from this week they
32:04go through everything but 100,000 GPUs I
32:09believe that's what that number is now
32:11100,000 GPUs so this was brute force and
32:14this gets back into like anyone who
32:18thinks open source is going to compete
32:19with the brute force to get you know a
32:22century old uh formula
32:26math problem
32:28figured out
32:30leading to physics problems that will be
32:34solved. And when physics problems, if
32:35people really want to spend time on it,
32:37which I did this morning for a while, we
32:38talked about it before we sat down. I
32:41mean, we're talking about terminal value
32:43for the S&P 500 changing for any
32:45physical company, any mining companies,
32:47anything. Now it won't change it for the
32:51earnings for the next 3 years, 4 years,
32:54but 5 years and out, as I keep saying
32:56all the time, I think you have a
32:58question of whether these companies that
33:01are doing old traditional things of
33:02mining are really going to be able to
33:04make money ever again if we've got
33:05solutions that get down to physics and
33:08get into things for the heart and things
33:10for drug discovery and thing everything
33:12that you can imagine. And that's why you
33:14have to spend time not kind of reading
33:16about Navier Stokes but just going to
33:17chat GPT and say what does this mean for
33:19the world and I'll have a slide on that
33:21in there from my own exploration for 30
33:23minutes to learn about it. So AI is
33:26moving so fast and the compounding of
33:28these models is going at a speed which
33:30is unbelievable that when Jensen Yuang
33:32goes on stage and says congratulations
33:35to Open AI on hitting AGI.
33:39Imagine in a week where a Jensen Yuang,
33:43>> godfather of AI,
33:45>> says, "Congratulations for reaching AGI
33:49and the front page of the stock market
33:52has Besset saying, "I am the house on
33:56one side and on the other side you have
33:58everyone panicking over rates and oil."
34:00The week that Jenzen Wong says that in
34:02AGI, everyone's worried about that. And
34:04that is the reason why I just think for
34:06people that are using what's happening
34:08on the news and what's happening in the
34:10market, the S&P 500 is unchanged or at
34:12least as of yesterday, it was unchanged
34:13since like June 2nd.
34:17But we've made all this progress in AI.
34:18We've solved all these things. We've
34:20jumped. The market's completely
34:21mispriced relative to the progress
34:23that's happening. And that means that
34:24it's like keeping a water on or ball
34:27underwater and at some point it explodes
34:29higher. And that's why I said I think
34:30crypto as just a segue into why it'll go
34:33higher. Well, it did really well when
34:36stocks couldn't move and all these panic
34:38fears when what would happen if oil went
34:40down for a week and rates went down for
34:425 days and we got the rate hike and
34:46everyone's like, "Okay, now what?" It's
34:48like the midterms, Jordy. The midterms
34:50are going to kill this and the Dems are
34:51going to win this and data centers are
34:52going to be I'm like, "So, I guess the
34:55day the midterms are over and you turn
34:57around and you've been worried about
34:58this, what are you going to say when the
34:59stock market goes higher?" Like,
35:01sometimes the Trump paid for it. That's
35:03what they're going to say. They're 100%
35:05going to say, "He he said he's going to
35:06give out stimulus 100%."
35:08Sometimes having done this a long time,
35:10the best thing for the market
35:13>> is just getting through the events and
35:14having what was expected at this point.
35:17>> The Dems are expected to win
35:20>> everything regardless of what people
35:21say. At this point, the market expects
35:23the Fed to raise 25.
35:24>> Mhm.
35:25>> Okay. That's what's expected.
35:27>> Do you think it's going to happen? Do I
35:28think they'll raise 25?
35:29>> Yeah.
35:31>> I I don't think it's a 70% chance. And
35:34>> 81% on poly market as of this morning.
35:3625 basis point. take
35:40I so I'm going to I'm going to say I
35:42don't think it's going to happen. I'm
35:44also gonna say I kind of hope it does
35:46happen so we can just get rid of it
35:48because
35:50>> I think the more likely scenario or the
35:52one that's the most bullish for the
35:53market because if he doesn't go it just
35:56leaves up that he could go
35:58forward. Um if he goes and basically
36:03says
36:04okay we I did this because the committee
36:07is split
36:09and because I felt like the arguments
36:11were towards this side as an insurance
36:14and I believe it's better to do 25 now
36:17and get ahead of things if they keep
36:20going to open up the possibility but I
36:23don't think we're going to do any more.
36:24So basically a dovish hike that would
36:27satisfy the Fed credibility. It might
36:30help the long end of the market. It
36:32would give people something. I don't
36:35think it matters. Like I said, I don't
36:36know why 25 basis points up or down
36:38matters to anyone as long as earnings
36:40are growing. And unlike 2022, and every
36:43time I see someone in the market do
36:45this, 2022 was a very unique situation.
36:48We were coming from incredibly low
36:51rates. AI was not a part of the
36:53equation. So we didn't have this massive
36:55capex and earnings boom based on that.
36:59We were coming out of a recession
37:00obviously and we had inflation up at 10%
37:03or nine and change. Now we've got core
37:06inflation at 2.4% in terms of core CPI.
37:09We already have rates at this level and
37:11we were going the debate wasn't 25. It
37:14was do we go 50, do we go 75? And so we
37:18raised rates really quickly in 2022. And
37:21then once we slowed down and basically
37:23came to the end, that's when you wanted
37:24to buy stock. So I just think uh the
37:26best thing for the market would probably
37:28be raising 25 with some kind of dovish
37:31message that this was an insurance
37:33thing. And since inflation is already on
37:36the low side there, but it would not
37:37surprise me if behind the scenes the
37:39pressure from the White House and what
37:41Donald Trump wants. Uh, I think we all
37:43make mistakes when we start fading what
37:46Besson and Trump are going to do to make
37:49sure what they want to have happen
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39:50If they raise rates, I will understand
39:51why. If I'm a betting man, there is a
39:54negative% chance they're cutting or
39:56they're raising rates. And it all falls
39:59down to we are going to learn a lesson
40:01that we have learned in the past, which
40:02is the Fed is not independent.
40:05And the same reason that Jerome Powell
40:08cut rates right before the election is
40:11going to be the same reason why I don't
40:12think Kevin War's going to raise rates
40:14right now. And if you have a job, you
40:18got a boss. And if you got a boss,
40:22you may say you're independent, but you
40:24kind of listen. You may even argue back,
40:27but the message kind of gets through.
40:30And so, let's see, right? But if they
40:32raise rates, I will understand. I I
40:34think that the data is, you know, kind
40:36of iffy and there probably is going to
40:37be some disagreement on and there has
40:39been disagreement at the FOMC, but I do
40:42think that the politics of it all is uh
40:45heavily mispriced or misallocated in
40:48terms of its importance.
40:49>> So, let's go let's go back this way
40:50because I I again, let's say there's
40:53three possibilities. There's the the
40:55Trump pressure one. Doesn't raise.
40:58>> Okay.
40:59>> There's the
41:01Okay, fine. I'm going to raise, but I'm
41:03also going to be dovish.
41:04>> Mhm.
41:04>> And then there's the third one, which is
41:06I'm going to raise and be hawkish. Oh,
41:07>> there's a fourth. What if he cuts?
41:09>> Okay, let's leave that one alone. We'll
41:11put that at zero.
41:12>> Bitcoin to a million.
41:13Um, [laughter]
41:14I I think if I was going to say then if
41:17though if we I think you can take one
41:19and two and and put them together
41:21because I think a hike with a dovish
41:22message is the same as in fact I
41:26actually think it might be better for
41:27the market than not hiking because to
41:31your point I think the Fed credibility
41:33thing will become an issue and the
41:35question is what does that mean? Now, if
41:37the dollar falls off and everyone goes
41:38through this, fine. But if rates shoot
41:40higher because he doesn't cut because he
41:43doesn't raise, I I think that might be a
41:46bigger issue. But let's assume that the
41:47first two are the I mean, I'm guessing
41:50that those are 90% when combined. I
41:53don't think I don't think raising rates
41:57with a hawkish message.
41:58>> Yeah, I don't think that's
41:59>> I I don't think it is either based on
42:01the data that we've had over since the
42:02last meeting.
42:03>> I don't think it is strategic for them.
42:04I don't think the data supports it, nor
42:06do I think that's what they want to
42:07[clears throat] do. Correct. Right. So,
42:08it's like you're kind of three strikes
42:09you're out on that. Um, it's an
42:12interesting way to think about maybe
42:13raising and being dovish is the same as
42:16just leaving. Um, but you may get an
42:17advantage from it. Um,
42:19>> let's see. But, you know, I don't know
42:21if you got the message. Uh, we are the
42:22house now. [laughter]
42:26>> I mean, did you hear his uh his
42:28commentary uh this morning?
42:30>> No.
42:30>> Or maybe it was late last night, but it
42:31was all over uh X today. He went on uh
42:35Steve Bannon's war room of all places
42:38>> and he said, "If the uh Bloomberg
42:40terminal bros are upset with me, then so
42:42be it."
42:43>> And he's just like, "Look, I'm going to
42:44do what I'm going to do. I kind of don't
42:46care." But uh whether it is the uh uh
42:50commentary around the Edmonton
42:52submarines when he was talking about
42:54Canada, the Bloomberg terminal bros, I
42:56mean, this guy is a all-time
42:58communicator. And I think that he's been
42:59uh rubbing shoulders with Trump for a
43:01while now cuz he is definitely finding
43:03his uh you know his voice if you will.
43:05>> I I I mean
43:09I I lived in the world of Wall Street.
43:11I've known Scott Pesson a long time or
43:13at least known of him a long time and I
43:16have had many many people talk to me
43:18about him. The same thing with Kevin
43:19Walsh.
43:20>> Um work with many people who worked for
43:22them, been around them. This is not the
43:25Scott Bessant that
43:27>> he was not an elite talker forever.
43:29[laughter]
43:30>> I mean, I I remember before he got the
43:33before he got the job when we were
43:34talking about if he got the job, a lot
43:37of people were saying I don't know if
43:38he'd be able to handle which Trump's
43:40going to go. I think actually he's
43:42incredible.
43:42>> He's become in many ways. So that's why
43:45I I do agree with you that and it's the
43:48reason why I think when people are
43:49challenging like rates, it's not that
43:52I 10ear rates to me
43:57should be 200 basis points higher. Okay.
44:00Now, that is not what the administration
44:02wants and it's not what the Fed wants
44:05either. And I say that based on well,
44:08what's the the point that we'd actually
44:11be restrictive on the economy? And I
44:13think tenure rates need to be
44:14significantly higher to be restrictive.
44:16In the past,
44:19tenure rates were about 200 basis points
44:21above nominal GDP. Well, nominal GDP is
44:246%. So, theoretically, you should be
44:26eight. Now, that all changed in 1997.
44:28And in 1997, we went below during the
44:32Asian financial crisis, and we never got
44:34back above except for periods of time
44:36when nominal GDP collapsed during
44:38recessions. When nominal GDP was stable,
44:40tenure rates were always below it. The
44:42reason I say it should be above it,
44:44well, we no longer are depend. This
44:46economy is not dependent on autos and
44:48housing. Like I can't say loud enough to
44:49people, this is not an interest rate
44:51sensitive market.
44:52>> If rates at higher level, everyone that
44:54has cash is getting more money in their
44:57bank account. And so we're just at a
45:00point of time where transfer payments
45:02are huge, meaning the government is
45:03handing out money to people that don't
45:05have enough money. And then at the on
45:07the other side, the AI trade has nothing
45:09to do with tenure rates at this point.
45:11And I can't say this loud enough to
45:13everyone who listens to doomers and all
45:15this stuff. Well, they need to go borrow
45:17money.
45:19That's ridiculous. I mean, it really is
45:22ridiculous. I am uh the unofficial
45:24president of uh the Scott Besson fan
45:26club. And um you know, uh Mr. Treasury
45:30Secretary, if you're watching this, uh
45:32talk your I I love it. I I think
45:34it's amazing. I think that uh he does
45:36calm the market compared to, you know,
45:38Trump's kind of erratic uh craziness
45:40sometimes. And uh I actually think that
45:42they are a pretty good duo because it's
45:44kind of like carrot and stick to a
45:46degree. Yep.
45:46>> Although Besson maybe is, you know, he's
45:48developing a stick um in that he is the
45:50house now. Um but if you go and you look
45:54at the other side of this maybe kind of
45:55private sector, you know, um man, they
45:59really need the entrepreneurs and the AI
46:01companies and you know, uh the data
46:03centers, etc. perform and in a very
46:06weird way there's an unofficial public
46:09private partnership that is attacking
46:12the problems of the US economy
46:13>> and the private sector is doing a damn
46:16good job of getting this technology out
46:19creating you know uh jobs and growth and
46:21productivity and revenue and earnings
46:23growth and like all the things that
46:25actually are providing a lot of uh
46:27relief for the Treasury Secretary the
46:29Fed you know they would be in a much
46:31more dire situation if they did not have
46:33the productivity gain and the technology
46:34innovation that's happening. And so I
46:36think that the macro people really focus
46:40on like reading the tea leaves and you
46:42know kind of playing the you know um
46:44astrology for men game of like what are
46:46they going to say? What are they going
46:47to do?
46:48>> Mhm.
46:48>> But damn that private sector is rocking
46:51and when you look at it holistically I
46:54don't know. It's pretty hard to be
46:55bearish.
46:56>> Well here's here's the thing you said
46:58that I think people should um keep in
47:01mind. So, let's just say you've got
47:03Trump and you've got Besson and we're
47:04saying that they're aligned in their
47:07thinking at this point. Okay, great.
47:09Besson also said this week the [snorts]
47:11US cannot lose the AI race to China. So,
47:14when you're betting against AI or you're
47:16saying I think it's a bubble and go and
47:17like okay, you're betting against Besson
47:20and Trump who are literally saying we're
47:24going to win the race with China because
47:25it's too important. At the same time,
47:27every AI person is in direct
47:31conversation with the White House.
47:33>> They have rooms at the White House. They
47:35literally live at the White House.
47:36>> Exactly.
47:37>> These [laughter] dudes are there every
47:38week.
47:38>> Yeah. And and you can call it what do
47:40you want inside? I really don't care.
47:42But why would you bet against this? Like
47:44why would you be fighting against it?
47:45Now, there's one other person that
47:47matters. Kevin Worsh. They not only
47:50chose Kevin Worsh, they in his
47:53testimonies. First of all, he's pro
47:56crypto, pro Bitcoin, he also believes in
48:00what Greenspan did and believes that AI
48:04is a changing technology to where the
48:07Fed has to change.
48:08>> Mhm.
48:09>> So, when you put it all together, the
48:11people who are bearish, number one, they
48:14seem to be betting against AI. And I'm
48:16telling you, they don't use it. If you
48:18want to be bearish because you think
48:19it's going to end the human race, I get
48:20it. Like that is I don't get that. Okay,
48:22but that's fine. If you want to do that,
48:24the reason I say I get it, they're
48:26basing it on the fact that AI is getting
48:28too strong.
48:29>> Mhm.
48:29>> If [clears throat] you want to
48:30>> They're like but they're almost bullish
48:31on AI and they're like they're the most
48:34bullish people.
48:35>> Yeah.
48:35>> It's cuz they're the ones who think that
48:36it's going to be so good that it gets
48:38out of control. If you want to bet
48:40against it because of the arguments of
48:42Michael Bur and Jim Chenos from a year
48:45ago, a year ago, where they said this is
48:50a bubble because they're saying these
48:53chips will have a lifespan of it's not
48:57there's no way. Well, the H100s,
49:00go look at the price that's happened
49:02year-over-year. They're higher than they
49:04were back then. So that is like saying
49:07that people get younger every year
49:09because there's a depreciation on this
49:11stuff. So when Gavin Baker, and I'll be
49:13covering this, like when Gavin Baker
49:15goes in there and says, "Do you realize
49:17that everyone that owns these chips
49:20running
49:22basic a data center, the compute prices
49:26today that they can sell at those things
49:29is higher than they were a year ago. And
49:32these chips are costing more. So if
49:34people want So they basically bought
49:37food a year ago before an inflationary
49:41spike and they're able to market these
49:43at higher prices cuz all the other
49:45restaurants right now are charging
49:46higher. So if people don't understand
49:49what that means and Gavin Baker talked
49:51about it, he [snorts] believes that the
49:53cloud providers, so the guys that are
49:56spending all the money and taking all
49:57the debt out, he said on Patrick Oshan's
50:00podcast a month ago, and that was a
50:02month ago, H100s are higher than even
50:05when they were back then, that you'll be
50:08shocked at how quickly the cloud
50:09providers will start to have profits
50:12coming through, not just from new data
50:13centers coming out, but from the fact
50:16that the compute prices that they can
50:18charge are higher and their costs are
50:20actually lower on the existing stuff
50:22they have. There's so much in this that
50:25again you've got the administration
50:27saying we're not going to let this not
50:29happen. You have Worsh Bessant Trump
50:32aligned on the same thing believing in
50:33AI and believing in crypto and you have
50:36market participants that manage lots of
50:39money all the world's money worried
50:42about things in a linear fashion. The
50:44reason the market isn't higher is
50:46because of the worries people have. No
50:48question about it. And I want to end
50:50with one more thing on this that I I
50:52started talking to people about this
50:53week. The beauty of Bitcoin at this
50:56point is this magical number for me of
50:59$2 trillion.
51:01So Bitcoin's around a $2 trillion asset.
51:04You know what else is around a $2
51:05trillion asset?
51:06>> Your bank account.
51:08>> SpaceX.
51:11Anthropic.
51:12And I think after Astra, I think open
51:15people are probably missing the boat on
51:16OpenAI at this point. Let's assume
51:18they're all worth two trillion. Isn't
51:20that an interesting part of where the
51:22market is? You have [snorts] four
51:24things.
51:26None of them make money. And I throw
51:28Bitcoin into it. Doesn't make money.
51:31These other three, let's assume they're
51:33two trillion. They don't make money at
51:34this point. They're spending the two
51:36companies that have, you know, their ARR
51:38looks great. They're spending a lot more
51:40money than their monthly number. and
51:42SpaceX. It's it's a thing based on time.
51:45That is $8 trillion worth of things that
51:48in my opinion are so important to the
51:51future. And people are still talking
51:53about the level of the Fed funds rate
51:56and oil. You are not adapting to where
51:59the world is today. You are still left
52:01in a world of 20 years ago. I won't even
52:04say 10 because you have to go back
52:06before the iPhone. You have to go back
52:09before the iPhone because all of this
52:11stuff should have been washed from
52:13people. It's the reason why I tell the
52:14story all the time. I went to Silicon
52:16Valley in 2013 to answer the question,
52:19how can Amazon up be up 17,000%
52:24since 1997? Yes, I want to say that to
52:26everyone. The stock at that time when I
52:28went there was up 17,000%.
52:33And it still was really not making
52:35money. Now, it was in 2013, but it
52:38wasn't really in 20 in 2008. And I went
52:40out there cuz I'm like, how can this
52:42thing always make new highs after it
52:44falls down? It's a bubble. It can't
52:47possibly be real on the metrics that I
52:49know. How can this be real? And I went
52:51there and Singularity University changed
52:53my life. And I never thought of the
52:55world that way. You have to go back.
52:57These people are telling you the world
52:58is going to end. That's the reason they
53:00go back to the.com bubble because it's
53:02the only period before technology
53:04actually was working when they can find
53:06a time in history where okay, this is a
53:08bubble. I will hope that those people
53:11have a great day. I hope that they uh
53:13enjoy themselves. I feel bad for their
53:16children's portfolios uh cuz it's
53:18probably not going to work out for them.
53:20Make sure you subscribe to Jord's
53:22YouTube page. Go to Jordiv Visser on
53:24YouTube. And uh if you have not yet
53:26signed up for Sylvia, go to
53:27cfosilia.com. We'd love to have you. You
53:30can uh use the latest greatest AI
53:32technology. It won't kill you. It'll
53:34help your portfolio. Go check it out at
53:35cfosilia.com.

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