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When might China take Taiwan?: Zhou Bo and Sreenivasan Jain | A Changing World? — Transcript

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0:00How can China allow a part of China
0:02still being separated from China? So, we
0:05would never tolerate Taiwan's
0:06independence. [music] Taiwan will be
0:08back. The only question is when and how.
0:10It's not a question of if. That I must
0:13say uh sounds like textbook older big
0:17bully behavior of the kind that you've
0:19often criticized the West for. I do want
0:20to understand how [music] would Chinese
0:22leadership differ from the West in
0:24tackling global challenges like Gaza.
0:27China [music] had the chance to take the
0:28moral leadership here. But what has
0:30China done instead? You're also the
0:31world's biggest exporter [music] to
0:33Israel, the third biggest importer of
0:35Israeli goods.
0:36>> I think China's attitude towards
0:38Israel's massive killing is a clearcut.
0:41Nobody would ever doubt about China
0:44China's strong condemnation over what
0:46[music] Israel has done. And in terms of
0:50trading, that should be somewhat
0:52separated from politics. So [music] I
0:54think China is doing the the the right
0:56thing.
1:01>> The international order is breaking down
1:03at a dramatic pace. Russia's invasion of
1:05Ukraine, Israel's genocide of
1:07Palestinians, and the joint USIsrael war
1:10on Iran each has eroded the credibility
1:13of the rules-based order. For decades,
1:15the United States and key allies sat at
1:18the center of this global system built
1:20on Western political, military, and
1:22[music] economic power. Supporters say
1:25it underpinned an era of unprecedented
1:27prosperity [music] and relative
1:29stability. Critics argue that it placed
1:32power above principle. That debate is no
1:35longer academic. In this series, I speak
1:38[music] to world leaders and leading
1:40strategic thinkers about what comes
1:42next, the ideas [music] that could shape
1:44tomorrow's international system. No
1:47country is more [music] central to that
1:49conversation than China. President Xi
1:52Jinping says China rejects hgemony and
1:55offers a more multipolar world built on
1:58sovereignity and non-inference.
2:00But does its conduct match those
2:02principles? Beijing has refused to
2:05condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It
2:07maintains deep commercial ties with
2:09Israel as Gaza lies in ruins [music] and
2:12the West Bank burns. And Taiwan contends
2:16with the permanent threat of military
2:18force. My guest is retired Senior
2:21Colonel Joe Bo. He's one of China's
2:24foremost [music] strategic voices and a
2:26former senior officer in the People's
2:29Liberation Army. I ask him, is China
2:32offering a genuinely different world
2:35order or simply [music] a different
2:37distribution of power?
2:39>> Senior Colonel Jo, thank you very much
2:42indeed for joining us. The international
2:44order is under enormous strain.
2:46President Xi says that China is the
2:48keeper of the international order, that
2:50it upholds the authority of the United
2:52Nations. This sounds great in theory,
2:54but in practice, what has China done
2:57that entitles it to make that claim? Do
2:59you think
3:00>> well people have a lot of
3:01misunderstanding about international
3:03order because most people in the west
3:06would associate it with so-called
3:08liberal international order and never by
3:10that I never believe there is anything
3:12called liberal international order. I
3:13would say the international order is
3:16like what it was since time memorial. So
3:19just to be clear, my my argument is not
3:21that the international order is only the
3:23liberal order, but that there is this
3:24current crisis or churn going on across
3:27the world. And the question was really
3:29on China that when President Xi says
3:31that you are the keeper of the order
3:32that you respect the United Nations
3:34charter,
3:36>> is that just theory or is that in
3:39practice? What has China done? What are
3:40China's actions that that allow it to
3:43make that claim? Well, China likes the
3:45United Nation because anyway, United
3:48Nation is intergovernmental
3:49organization, the largest one.
3:51Therefore, it would have more authority
3:53by supporting the United Nation, which
3:56you can take almost as a kind of
3:58international order. China would say
4:00that it is a guardian of the
4:02international order. That means we're
4:03not a revisionist. We are the guardian
4:06of the existing international order. But
4:08what it is, it is the UN centered
4:11international order. And you believe
4:13that if you look at it particularly the
4:15the turmoil around the world today but
4:17do you see yourself as a force for peace
4:19and for stability compared to let's say
4:23the countries of the west is that how
4:25you position yourself? China uh military
4:28actually has been involved in a lot of
4:30you know military operation around the
4:32world but they are exclusively in
4:35humanitarian area. So uh so be it
4:37peacekeeping, counteraracy or disaster
4:39relief right and that is a unique
4:42Chinese way of making contribution
4:44toward the world without you know
4:46killing anyone.
4:47>> Okay some of your own neighbors might
4:50disagree with the idea of China as a
4:52peacekeeping force as a non-hegemonic
4:54force but I want to come to the
4:55neighborhood later if I can test some of
4:57those contentions you made by looking at
5:00China's position when it comes to the
5:02current global conflicts. China is quite
5:04right to criticize the US western
5:05liberal order as one that starts wars.
5:07China was very critical of the US Israel
5:11invasion in Iran. You said it's a
5:12violation of the international law. But
5:15those aren't the only countries starting
5:16wars. It's also countries outside the
5:19western liberal axis like Russia
5:21unilaterally invades Ukraine denounced
5:25by uh the United Nations. China doesn't
5:28condemn it. What happened to respecting
5:31the UN charter? No, you you you have
5:34misunderstood China because China
5:35actually has criticized Russia but in in
5:38a subtle Chinese way because we
5:40immediately point out that uh
5:43sovereignty should be respected in in so
5:45saying we are actually point out that
5:48this kind of sovereignty of another
5:50country is not respected.
5:51>> But in the UN vote though China
5:53abstained 141 nations all over the world
5:57including countries of the global south
5:58voted to condemn the Russian invasion.
6:01You were very clear about condemning the
6:04invasion of Iran, but in the case of
6:06Russia, you didn't.
6:07>> Well, you see, there are actually a lot
6:09of your resolutions regarding Russia's
6:12invasion of Ukraine. On some, yes, China
6:15China abstained, but on some China
6:17vetoed yes. So, it depends on which kind
6:20of resolution you're referring to. But
6:22given China's good relationship with
6:25Russia, I think this kind of you know
6:27abstaining itself is actually speaks up
6:30for itself.
6:32>> In some ways you're admitting actually
6:33what many critics say that just weeks
6:35before the Russian invasion, President
6:37Xi said that there are no limits to
6:39China's friendship with Russia. So you
6:41are taking positions not based on
6:43principles but on ideology on countries
6:46that are part of your axis. Well, on
6:49this unlimited friendship is very easy
6:51for for me to explain. Actually, in the
6:53same uh agreement between China and
6:56Russia, soon after this word was
6:58mentioned that immediately it was point
7:00out that this relationship is not
7:03directed against any third parties. Why
7:05won't people pay attention to this?
7:07>> But it's not just diplomatic support. By
7:09the way, you've been criticized as you
7:10know for providing military technology
7:12to Russia. China says you only supply
7:14dual use material. The G7 though issued
7:17a statement saying China is a decisive
7:20enabler of Russia's war.
7:22>> What G7 mean is that all these kind of d
7:26use items could actually provide kind of
7:29lifeline to Russia. That is what it
7:30mean. China has been very strict. Yeah.
7:34In not providing any military equipment
7:36or arms to Russia. Because if China has
7:38done that, it won't go uncovered. It
7:40will soon be be be you know discovered
7:43when something is due use in nature.
7:46>> What is the first nature? The first
7:47nature is it is for civilian use because
7:50just like a oil and a gas if you put it
7:52in the tank of a military truck it is
7:54military product but normally nobody
7:56would consider gas and oil kind of a
7:58military product.
8:00>> But uh you know when they say decisive
8:02enabler of Russia's war it seems beyond
8:04just double use. The Ukrainian foreign
8:05intelligence chief by the way was more
8:07specific. He said China supplies
8:08gunpowder and other components
8:10specifically to 20 Russian defense
8:13manufacturing industries that they've
8:15identified.
8:15>> Well, I cannot verify that but even if
8:18it is gunpowder is not arms, right? Or
8:21ammunition, right? So that is there is a
8:24critical difference. First of all, I
8:25really don't know how true that kind of
8:27allegation is. But even that is true.
8:29Still there is a difference. If you look
8:32at the global south countries, very few
8:34country would criticize China as a hypo
8:38hypocritical, right? And in the west,
8:41the the problem is because of of of
8:44their wish that Ukraine can win.
8:46Therefore, they would put pressure on
8:48China. In fact, it is the west that is
8:50widely criticized for it stop standard.
8:52Right? If we just see the war in Ukraine
8:55and war in Gaza, well, this is just like
8:57a black and white kind of hypocrisy. I'm
9:00glad you mentioned Gaza because the Gaza
9:01genocide is clearly a failure of the
9:03Western liberal order. China had the
9:05chance to take the moral leadership
9:07here. But what has China done instead?
9:09You've condemned Israel's actions,
9:10>> but you're also the world's biggest
9:12exporter to Israel, the third biggest
9:14importer of Israeli goods. That doesn't
9:17sound like moral leadership. That sounds
9:18like business as usual.
9:20>> Well, I think you are just mixing
9:22politics with with economy, right? I I
9:25think China's attitude towards Israel's
9:28massive killing is a clear-cut. Yeah.
9:30Nobody would ever doubt about China.
9:32China China's strong condemnation over
9:34what Israel has done. And but China is
9:38different in the Middle East because it
9:40is owning country that actually has
9:42befriends almost everyone. Yeah. Before
9:44this war. So China's position in the
9:47Middle East is considered quite
9:49impartial and neutral. And that actually
9:52raised people's hope as to what China
9:54can actually do to to solve this problem
9:56or even as some people say could fill in
9:59the so-called vacuum. China would not
10:00fill the vacuum. But the fact that
10:03you're trading with a country that's
10:04committing ethnic cleansing, committing
10:07genocide, isn't that a moral failure?
10:09Well, I don't believe any international
10:12would prohibit us from having kind of a
10:14normal trade relationship because this
10:17this kind of a transaction has been done
10:21even before the before the war. Right?
10:23I'm saying this because circumstances
10:25called for different measures
10:27>> and clearly the condemnation China other
10:30countries is not working. It's it's
10:31creating no pressure on Israel. No
10:33>> and hence and hence the possibility of
10:35sanctions very much is on the table. Why
10:39would China not consider sanctions?
10:40>> Well, you see, the sanctions do not
10:42always work. And for this question to be
10:45asked and I believe the right people for
10:48you to ask is United States first. Yeah.
10:51So, because they are the country that
10:53right behind Israel. I always argue yeah
10:56is Israel is America's archic skills.
11:00>> Absolutely. And that's why I said at the
11:01outset this is very much a failure of
11:03that axis. But as I said, this was a
11:05chance for China to take the leadership.
11:07If you take a country like Spain, senior
11:09colonel, they are very much part of the
11:11western liberal axis. They actually
11:13broke from that. They've taken a very
11:15strong stand against Israel. They've
11:16called for economic sanctions. They've
11:18put an arms embargo
11:20>> that in some ways represents the new
11:22world order.
11:23>> Well, you see, sanction for China is not
11:26the whole thing because China has been
11:28sanctioned time again in in the past. So
11:30therefore, we do not really buy by that.
11:34I think China's role in the future is
11:36kind of three role. One is a
11:38facilitator, another is mediator, the
11:40third is security guaranter along with
11:43some other countries. So people have a
11:45high expectation for China and I believe
11:48this is what China's role will be in the
11:50future.
11:50>> So is there any scenario in which
11:52Beijing would use its economic clout to
11:55stop mass atrocities?
11:57>> Well, I don't believe uh you know uh
11:59first of all it has such a strong
12:01association with China. China's attitude
12:03on the Middle East issue is clear-cut,
12:06right? And in terms of trading, that
12:09should be somewhat separated from
12:11politics. So, I think China is doing the
12:14the right thing. And I think the Arab
12:16countries have no doubts about China.
12:18>> And so, perhaps there is some scope
12:20there for China to do more. But let me
12:23switch to the region. Now, President Xi
12:25says that China is opposed to hedgemony
12:27and power politics. You've often said
12:29that the West is the sole sort of space
12:32that fears China. The reality is this.
12:35Under President Xi's watch, China has
12:36turbocharged its military might. All
12:39your neighbors are reporting heightened
12:40Chinese territorial aggression,
12:42hegemonic behavior. This isn't the west.
12:44This is India. These are nations of the
12:46South China Sea.
12:47>> No, not at all. You see, on the China's
12:50land border, we only have territorial
12:51issue with two countries, that is India
12:53and Bhutan, which is very much under
12:55control of India. You see China actually
12:58since 1979 has resolved the border issue
13:00with 12 countries. So you can hardly say
13:03that China is not sincere in resolving
13:05this kind of border issue with with
13:07India is more complicated because even
13:09we cannot agree on the length of the
13:11border. It's such a big issue in the
13:13South China Sea. People yes China does
13:15have a problem with some countries but
13:17people often forget one thing. These
13:19claments also have a you know question
13:21of demarcation among themselves. So it's
13:23not a question of China versus other
13:25claments. is also a issue very much
13:27among these other clements of Southeast
13:29Asian countries.
13:31>> So I'm not saying other parties are
13:32blameless senior colonel but China also
13:35is being their aggressor has been found
13:38to be in the wrong. A tribunal under the
13:39UN law of the sea ruled in 2016 that
13:42China's maritime claims visav the
13:44Philippines violated international law.
13:46Beijing simply rejected the ruling. What
13:48happened to respecting global order?
13:50>> No because the case actually happened in
13:532013, right? And the ruling came in two
13:56200 16 but actually China back in 2006
14:01has made it clear that we would not
14:03accept any ruling on the article 298. So
14:07that means China already said that
14:09without knowing Philippine one day we
14:11just sue China because we believe it's
14:13about the sovereignty and UN convention
14:16lord of sea would not deal any issues
14:18under sovereignty. But again as I said
14:20isn't that cherrypicking which UN
14:22convention because you say that you
14:23respect the UN charter a UN convention
14:25that doesn't suit you you reject it well
14:28>> surely that seems like double standards
14:29no charter UN charter is law itself but
14:31there are many other laws on UN
14:33convention law of the sea is not about
14:35sovereignty and this is clearly written
14:38in the preamble read it
14:40>> okay but on India it's not just a
14:43complex border question in 2020 an
14:46estimated 20 Indian soldiers were killed
14:48in a violent brawl with the Chinese
14:50army. I believe four Chinese troops were
14:52killed as well.
14:53>> Time magazine says the clash was
14:54triggered by China's more aggressive
14:56posture in the region since President Xi
14:58came to power. That doesn't sound like
15:00you've resolved border issues or that
15:02you're a peaceful neighbor.
15:03>> Well, I think it depends on how you look
15:05at this issue. Before that, actually
15:07over four decades, yeah, uh the the
15:10border was by and large peaceful and
15:12even Prime Minister Modi point putting
15:14that out. this actually line of actual
15:17control was never demarcated. So
15:19sometimes you know Chinese troops and
15:21Indian troops would would end up being
15:23in the territory that was considered by
15:25the other side to be their territory and
15:27that was most unfortunate. But look at
15:29the uh the the history since 1979 that
15:34was the only incident that China had
15:36actually from 1979. So nobody would
15:39disagree that China's rise has been most
15:42peaceful compared to any other powers in
15:44the history.
15:45>> Okay. Interesting. Uh some would say
15:47that this almost could have become a
15:48much greater clash. Mercifully it
15:50didn't. But uh let's come to Taiwan
15:53senior colonel and tell me if here
15:55China's actions do not translate into
15:57direct hegemonic behavior. It's a tiny
15:59island of 23 million. The majority of
16:01whom in poll after poll say they do not
16:03want to live under Beijing's rule.
16:05China's response has been to fire
16:07rockets, simulate air and naval strikes,
16:10basically threaten invasion.
16:12>> Well, I think you are just putting you
16:14know Taiwan as an independent country
16:16while more than 180 countries including
16:19India. Yeah. And United States all these
16:21countries consider Taiwan to be part of
16:23China. So we are still having patience.
16:26Yeah. We still look for peaceful
16:29reunification but they have to behave.
16:31Yeah. So uh in certain circumstances
16:34actually three kind of circumstances
16:36according to China's anti-cessession law
16:38we might resort to use of force but I
16:40hope that would be the last resort.
16:43>> But when you say they have to behave do
16:45uh explain to our viewers what that
16:46means if a majority of the population do
16:49not want to be part of China identify as
16:52Taiwanese surely there has to be some
16:54respect for the will of the people.
16:56Well, you know, I I I mean they have to
16:58behave because the ruling parties is is
17:01DPP who actually champion a kind of time
17:04of independence and it's under the
17:07leadership. Yeah, we basically have no
17:10any exchanges across the street. But
17:12this DPP led you know authority by
17:16lender even refused to consider yeah
17:19Taiwan to be part of China. That is a
17:21big problem.
17:22>> Right. You're talking about uh the
17:23current president of Taiwan, Liing T,
17:26but I was asking more about the people
17:27because quite outside of whoever's in
17:29charge, if a growing number of people,
17:31and I'm quoting a Pew poll from 2024
17:34which said 80% of Taiwan's young
17:36consider themselves Taiwanese, not
17:37Chinese, twothirds consider China as a
17:39major threat to their sovereignty.
17:42Again,
17:42>> well,
17:43>> this is this is the public view.
17:44>> No, no, this is
17:45>> surely surely that's something that
17:47China should respect. No, this this is
17:49not the whole of public view because you
17:51will have a different pose. Actually, uh
17:54the latest post shows that actually
17:56young people are really, you know, uh
17:59happy to see what was happening in men
18:01in China and more and more people
18:03actually are coming to work work in
18:06mainland China. So, uh I'd be very
18:08interested to see polls which actually
18:09show a reverse because these polls show
18:11very big numbers. 80% 60% 70% would
18:15prefer to to remain Taiwanese and not
18:18have Chinese control. But again just
18:21coming back to the idea of what that
18:23would mean s because the fear is surely
18:26that if there is going to be greater
18:28Chinese control then you will have
18:30repression you will have the stripping
18:32away of a freer society. They're looking
18:35at what happened in Hong Kong with the
18:37protest and the way that China cracked
18:38down and I'm not sure if they want to go
18:40there. Well, you are just looking at
18:42this issue from the eyes of some
18:44Taiwanese. But as a uh a mainlander, I
18:48can provide another angle. Just think of
18:50this. Yeah. If more than 180 countries
18:54believe Taiwan is part of China, how can
18:56China allow a part of China still being
18:58separated from China? It's just as
19:01simple as that. So, we would never
19:03tolerate Taiwan's independence. Taiwan
19:05will be back. The only question is when
19:07and how. It's not a question of if. that
19:10I must say uh sounds senior colonel like
19:13textbook old order big bully behavior of
19:16the kind that you've often criticized
19:18the west for.
19:19>> No because we are still talking about
19:21peaceful reunification. People always
19:23talk about the stick part. Yeah. Over
19:25our policy but it but people have
19:27forgotten ch mainland China has actually
19:29offered a lot of carrots for example.
19:31Yeah. those childrens from the Taiwanese
19:34families could go to kindergartens and
19:36the card we issue to them is very much
19:39like our own you know ID card and we are
19:41giving them more and more preferential
19:43treatments. It is a Taiwanese authority
19:45who who refuse this kind of offers
19:48because they are afraid that the more
19:51the two sides become integrated the more
19:54Taiwanese people would be you know uh
19:56attracted by the mainland which is the
19:58fact because you know China now is the
20:00center of gravity almost of course this
20:03the Taiwanese people would not be
20:05exception so so there could be a
20:07difference between seeking economic
20:09opportunities here to actually being
20:11governed by China but let me move on
20:14Colonel
20:14China treats non-interference as a
20:16cornerstone of your foreign policy. It's
20:18the holy grail. We won't tell you what
20:20to do. You don't tell us what to do. But
20:22there's another way to read it. Is
20:24non-inference a way of shutting down any
20:26questions on how China treats its own
20:28citizens? They have no voting rights, no
20:30free press, no meaningful right to
20:32descent.
20:33>> Well, non-in interference is part of,
20:37you know, uh Chinese foreign policy.
20:39Yeah. And and this is what you're
20:42talking about is kind of a domestic
20:44situation. Well, I just give you a
20:47quote. According to a poll, okay, you
20:49like poll, right? According to a poll by
20:50Harvard University, 90% of Chinese
20:53people actually are happy with with the
20:56with China's the status quo. Yeah. And
20:59we believe we're much better than the
21:00rest of the world. It's a poll from
21:02Harvard University. Read it.
21:04I'm not disputing that China has made
21:06rapid strides in terms of economic
21:09success. But again, the fact is that
21:11internally there is no way for people to
21:13actually signal whether they're happy or
21:15not because there are no pipelines of
21:16feedback. There's no pipelines of
21:17descent. There's no public opinion
21:19that's allowed.
21:20>> No.
21:20>> Which is which could be critical of the
21:21regime. President Xi is essentially
21:23elected by about 3,000 of his party
21:25colleagues in a country of over 1
21:28billion. A majority of Chinese have no
21:30say in determining who elects them.
21:32Well, you do not understand China's, you
21:34know, elections system because, uh, we
21:37we just have a different election levels
21:40at different constituencies and these
21:42people are represented at each
21:44constituency and those people at high
21:46constituency would to vote for this kind
21:48of, you know, leadership.
21:50>> But it's still a one party system.
21:51There's no alternative.
21:53>> Well, no, you're wrong. In China, it's
21:55not one party. We have many other
21:58parties, but the dominant party is a
22:00Chinese Communist Party. I mean the
22:02other parties are essentially supervised
22:04uh by the the communist uh China party.
22:06But when you talk about people being
22:08happy, senior colonel, are the weaguers
22:10happy? The UN human rights office report
22:12of August 22 says that China's abuses in
22:15the Shing Chang region may constitute
22:17crimes against humanity.
22:18>> No, I don't think so. Uh because if you
22:20look at the world, ethnic problem is
22:23always most difficult to resolve. Yeah.
22:25And if you look at the people in Shing
22:27Jang actually the life is becom is
22:30becoming longer. Yeah. And if
22:32>> not according to the United Nations
22:34>> well the life is certainly much longer
22:36because people's living standard are
22:38much higher. This is this doesn't need
22:39any statistics. This is just a common
22:42sense. Yeah. If you just Google well
22:45easily whether the people in Shing
22:47Jang's life are getting longer the
22:48answer is definitely yes. How can you
22:51just convince me that their life is just
22:54becoming shorter because because of of
22:56you know politics in China? This is
22:58impossible.
22:59>> This is not me saying it. Human Rights
23:01Watch says hundreds and thousands of
23:03weagers remain imprisoned as part of the
23:04government's crimes against humanity in
23:06the region.
23:07>> No, we do not we we do not describe it
23:10as such. We we we had a time when some
23:13of the this people would have to go
23:15through kind of re-educating center
23:17where we actually teach them all all
23:19kinds of techniques. So it's not about
23:21what you have described as a prison. No.
23:24Uh we don't have do not have so many
23:26prisons.
23:27>> Let me ask you in conclusion because
23:29you've been very critical of the western
23:30liberal order but how is the Chinese
23:32model of a state that is repressive
23:34towards its own citizens a better
23:36alternative for the world? If you ask
23:39Chinese people, let's compare, okay,
23:40Chinese people life now and Chinese
23:42people in the past in my age. Yeah, I
23:44have gone through cultural revolution
23:46before 1976
23:48uh you know was really really horrible
23:50and even the Chinese Communist Party has
23:52brought a concluding this havoc to the
23:54whole Chinese nation and today we are
23:56here we're almost neck to neck to the
23:58United States. How can you believe that
24:00the second strongest economy in the
24:02world uh you know is having a miserable
24:04life for all the Chinese people? It's
24:05impossible. Right. The thing is when you
24:07say ask the Chinese people, that's the
24:08whole point. There are no mechanisms to
24:10poll public opinion in this country
24:12because you don't have the democratic
24:14pipelines. You don't have elections, you
24:15don't have a free press, you can't
24:17criticize the government.
24:18>> Well, you see, to understand how people
24:20feel, you don't need such a sophistic
24:30all all these will tell you what how
24:32Chinese people would feel.
24:33>> All right. So you believe that the
24:34Chinese model is working for its people.
24:37Now whether that's something that plays
24:39out on the global stage, we'll have to
24:40wait and see. But senior general, thank
24:42you very much indeed for talking to us
24:44[clears throat] and taking your
24:45questions. Thanks very much.

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