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What the Headlines Don't Tell You! | What the 528-Page DRHP Reveals About Jio IPO — Transcript

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0:00Today, it is my proud privilege to
0:02announce that Jio is making all
0:05arrangements to file for its IPO.
0:10>> I'm shifting from Airtel. I don't have
0:12network in my place, so I'm shifting
0:13from Airtel to Jio.
0:16>> Crazy, crazy situation. I can see people
0:18who've been standing in the queue for
0:19close to a couple of hours.
0:20>> [music]
0:23>> Ladies and gentlemen, Reliance Jio is
0:24going IPO and the market is buzzing with
0:27excitement.
0:27>> Jio.
0:28>> Jio.
0:28>> Jio.
0:29>> Jio IPO is literally rewriting the rules
0:31of fund raise.
0:34>> The mother of all IPOs is here.
0:37>> Jio is coming to crush every record in
0:39the book.
0:40>> [music]
0:42>> On paper, Jio looks absolutely flawless.
0:45They make 1.46 lakh crores in revenue,
0:4830,000 crores in profits, and they have
0:50524 million customers. So, they
0:52practically serve 1/3 of the entire
0:55Indian population. Now, we all know the
0:57Jio story. They made mobile data
1:00dramatically more affordable and they
1:01helped us turn India into an
1:03internet-enabled country. And that gave
1:05rise to everything from the creator
1:07economy to the acceleration of the
1:09Digital India revolution. But, whenever
1:11a company becomes this important to the
1:13Indian economy, I think it is worth
1:15understanding how the business really
1:16works. So, I went beyond the headlines
1:19and opened the 528-page draft prospectus
1:22to help you understand the numbers, the
1:24obligations, and the risks behind Jio's
1:26growth. And what I found are three
1:28things that the headlines are not
1:30covering. An outstanding spectrum
1:32obligation of 1.04 lakh crores, 10,182
1:36crores in deferred tax expense, and the
1:38pyramid behind the Jio's ecosystem. So,
1:40from Jio Bharat phones to Jio Saavn to
1:43Jio Fiber, Jio sells a dozen different
1:46things in all kinds of markets.
1:53So, the question is, how does the
1:55business actually make money? What are
1:57the risks in this mighty business of
1:59Jio? Why is this 10,000 crore tax bill
2:02being postponed? And when the tax bill
2:04actually comes knocking, how will this
2:06impact the empire of Jio?
2:08But before we move on, I would like to
2:09quickly thank Odoo for supporting our
2:10content. People, everybody's talking
2:12about AI right now. If you're actually
2:14running a business, you're probably
2:15wondering, how do you actually make use
2:17of it? Imagine AI helping you run your
2:19business, handling tasks, giving
2:21insights, and keeping everything moving
2:23in your existing system. That is exactly
2:25what Odoo's building. Now, AI is fully
2:27integrated across the entire Odoo suite,
2:29designed to make your life easier by
2:31making everything work together. It all
2:33starts with Odoo's AI agents. You can
2:35choose the agent model, define its
2:37response style, and set its core subject
2:39or purpose. Once that is done, your team
2:41can simply open a chat and ask for
2:43everything they need, from information
2:45to actions to insights, and the agents
2:47will get it done. For example, your
2:48sales pipeline becomes clearer with
2:50AI-driven probabilities and insights.
2:52Communication becomes faster with
2:53instant summaries and smart replies.
2:55Even everyday tasks, like note-taking
2:57and document sorting, can happen
2:58automatically. On the customer side, AI
3:01handles queries in real time and
3:03smoothly hands it off to your team when
3:05it's needed. That is what makes it very,
3:07very powerful. So, if you want to
3:08integrate AI into your business and run
3:10your business super efficiently, check
3:12out Odoo from the link in the
3:13description.
3:20Chalo, let's make this super simple.
3:22Jio has everything from recharge to
3:24set-top box to Jio Saavn to even Jio
3:27Phone. But in reality, the Jio business
3:30is defined by one simple equation:
3:32revenue equal to users into average
3:35revenue per user. So, Jio can do only
3:38two things: get more people to pay, or
3:41get the same person to pay more.
3:43To see how it does both, we need to look
3:45at India's internet users as a pyramid.
3:48In this pyramid, level one is the
3:50offline India. They form the bottom of
3:52the pyramid where there are 263.5
3:55million Indians who still use a basic 2G
3:58phone. For them, Jio built Jio Bharat
4:01phone for 799 rupees which works only
4:03with a Jio SIM and doesn't support any
4:06other SIM card. This phone is sold
4:08through Reliance stores and Jio's 6,323
4:11small town Jio points. Jio earns almost
4:14nothing here today, but once these
4:16people are in the ecosystem, they start
4:17paying a recharge of 123 rupees for 20
4:20days for 4G and this directly
4:22contributes to Jio's recharge revenue.
4:25Now, this is a complete blue ocean for
4:27Jio because in this zone of below 1,000
4:29rupees, there is no reputed 4G phone
4:32company at all. And while Jio charges
4:35123 rupees for 20 days, Airtel's
4:37cheapest plan costs 199 rupees for 20
4:40days, which is about 60% more. This is
4:44how Jio gets people into the ecosystem.
4:47Now, if you look at this market, it is
4:48so huge [music] that if all 26 crore of
4:51them pay 123 rupees for recharge, that's
4:543,198 crores every [music] 28 days. This
4:58is the bottom of the pyramid.
5:00Level two are free scrollers. These
5:03people have smartphones,
5:05>> [music]
5:05>> they do watch content, they do scroll,
5:07but they don't pay. So, what does Jio
5:09do? Jio [music] gives them content for
5:11free and sell their attention to brands.
5:14So, they sell ad slots and make money
5:16out of ad revenue. This is where MyJio
5:19has 216 million monthly users and they
5:22also have Jio TV, free version of Jio
5:24Saavn, free Jio AI cloud storage, and
5:27Jio [music] Games. In all these apps,
5:30Jio earns through Jio Ads. For those who
5:32don't know, Jio Ads is an advertising
5:34platform which also sends users to the
5:36rest of Reliance brands. In fact, you
5:38will be shocked to know that MyJio alone
5:41sent about 72 million visits to JioMart
5:44last year.
5:45Then, we have level three. Here's where
5:48we have bundle players.
5:50This is the heart of the Jio business.
5:52These customers pay only for their
5:54mobile recharge and get OTT
5:56subscriptions like Jio Hotstar and
5:58Netflix as free perks.
6:0077% of Jio's revenue comes from these
6:03prepaid recharges. And in total, Jio
6:06holds 49.95% of India's wireless
6:08broadband market. Airtel holds 35.13%
6:12Vodafone Idea holds 12.65% and BSNL has
6:15a meager 2.24% share.
6:18Then, we have level four, where we have
6:20home payers. These households pay for
6:22mobile and home internet, who pay for
6:25Jio Fiber, Jio AirFiber, Jio set-up
6:27[music] box and Jio TV Plus. Here, Jio
6:30Fiber and Jio AirFiber have 27.1 million
6:33homes. Airtel has 14.4 million homes and
6:36BSNL has 4.5 million homes. Then, in
6:39level five, there are super payers.
6:41These customers pay for everything. This
6:43includes everything from premium music
6:46on Jio Saavn Pro, Jio PC to cloud gaming
6:49on Jio Games. Each [music] product forms
6:51a small portion of the business. Level
6:53six is where enterprises are. Here, Jio
6:56generates revenue from banks, airports,
6:58IT firms, factories and India's
7:00>> [music]
7:00>> 79 million small businesses. In fact,
7:03Jio serves over 90% of Indian banks,
7:06over 75% of operational airports and
7:09eight of the top 10 IT companies.
7:12So, if you look at the pyramid, most of
7:14Jio's money sits here on level three,
7:16where there are bundle players. So,
7:18while Jio Bharat is meant to bring
7:19people into the funnel, every other
7:21product exists to push people one step
7:24up. All of this put together, Jio
7:27provides internet access to 524 million
7:29people, which is why Jio calls itself
7:32the gateway to digital India.
7:36>> Jio Platforms Limited pivoted India from
7:38being the 155th nation of broadband
7:41penetration and consumption in the world
7:43to number one in just 10 years.
7:47>> Reliance is never just a company.
7:49Reliance is a promise that every Indian
7:52should have the opportunity to
7:54participate in India's growth.
7:58>> But you see social impact and financial
8:00performance are two different questions.
8:02So the question is what does Jio's
8:04economics look like? Well, on the
8:05surface, just like I told you in the
8:07intro, Jio's FY26 report card is
8:09spotless. Revenue stands at 1.46 lakh
8:12crores, which is up by 14.5% by the way.
8:15Profit stands at about 30,000 crores.
8:17EBITDA margin stands at an extraordinary
8:2051.9%.
8:22But if you look deeper, there are three
8:23important numbers in the document that
8:25will help you understand Jio's financial
8:27position in greater detail. Firstly, you
8:29will see a spectrum payment to be made.
8:32For those who don't know, to run a
8:33mobile network, a company needs airwaves
8:36called spectrum, which it buys from the
8:38government at auctions. Now, the
8:40government doesn't ask for the full
8:41price on day one. It lets operators pay
8:43for it over many years with an interest
8:45of about 7%. Now, Jio says its net debt
8:49is just 0.36 times its EBITDA.
8:52But on top of that, Jio owes the
8:53government 1.04 lakh crores. For this,
8:57Jio will pay
8:59which is roughly 40% of its profits.
9:04>> [music]
9:04>> And after 2038, Jio only has to pay
9:07about 8,000 crores a year until 2042.
9:10So Jio's net debt is just 0.36 times its
9:13EBITDA, but if you add 1.04 lakh crores
9:17it owes for spectrum, the total
9:19obligations come to about 1.7 times the
9:21EBITDA. [music]
9:22This is the first number. The second
9:24number is the deferred tax bill. And if
9:26you look at this page of the DRHP, it
9:28says that even though their tax bill is
9:3010,300 crores, they only paid 118 crores
9:34in taxes. The question is, why is Jio
9:37paying 10,000 crores less in taxes?
9:40Well, there are three ideas that decide
9:42whether Jio's numbers are as good as
9:44they look.
9:45They are depreciation, free cash flow,
9:47and deferred tax. Now, these might sound
9:50like jargons, but they're actually very
9:51simple to understand. So, let's
9:52understand these three terms using a
9:54simple story. Meet Dave's cab company,
9:57Yellow Smart. Dave runs 10 cabs. He
9:59bought them from a dealer for 1 crore
10:01using a loan, and each cab lasts about
10:0310 years. So, in a year, his company
10:05earns 80 lakh rupees in fares. Driver,
10:08fuel, repairs, and permits cost 40 lakh
10:10rupees. He pays the dealer 10 lakh
10:12rupees of his installments every year,
10:14plus 8 lakh rupees of interest. Now, Jio
10:17is the same business, just bigger, a lot
10:20bigger. Instead of cabs, they have 3.6
10:23lakh towers, a million kilometers of
10:25fiber, and its airwaves. Now, let's
10:27quickly understand these terms properly,
10:29and then apply it to Jio's scenario. You
10:30see, Dave's cabs aren't a cost only in
10:32the year he bought them. They are used
10:34for 10 years. So, each year, his
10:36accountant counts only 1/10 of their
10:39price as a cost. So, instead of counting
10:411 crore in year one, and zero for the
10:43next 9 years, he counts 10 lakh rupees a
10:46year for 10 years.
10:48This slice is called depreciation, where
10:50the accountant spreads the cost of an
10:52asset across years that it is used. So,
10:54every year, Dave can claim this as an
10:57expense, and doesn't have to pay tax on
10:59it.
11:00Now, let's look at Dave's statement, and
11:01understand Jio's statement in parallel.
11:03Dave's Yellow Smart makes 80 lakh rupees
11:05in revenue. Running cost is about 40
11:07lakh rupees. Other income is zero. So,
11:10his earnings before interest, tax, and
11:12depreciation is 40 lakh rupees. Then,
11:14depreciation is about 10 lakh rupees,
11:16and interest is 8 lakh rupees a year,
11:19leaving a profit before tax of 22 lakh
11:21rupees. Then, he pays 5.5 lakh rupees in
11:23taxes, and is left with a profit of 16.5
11:27lakh rupees.
11:28Similarly, revenue for Jio is 1.46 lakh
11:31crore rupees. Running cost is 73,504
11:35crore rupees. Other income is 2,874
11:38crores and EBITDA is 76,255
11:41crores. And just like Dev spreads his
11:44investment across 10 years, Jio spreads
11:46his infrastructure investment over the
11:48life of those assets and they deduct
11:5027,249 crores this year. Then it pays
11:548,653 crores in interest leaving a
11:57profit before tax of 40,353
12:00crores. Now on paper, the tax comes to
12:02about 10,300 crores leaving a profit of
12:0630,049 crores. This is where Jio
12:09actually paid only 118 crores in taxes.
12:11So the question is, why is there such a
12:13huge gap between the tax on paper and
12:15the tax actually paid? Now let's
12:17understand the tax part using Dev's
12:19example. You see in a normal case, Dev's
12:21accountant calculates the life of the
12:23car to be 10 years and hence the expense
12:25that can be shown each year is only
12:27about 10 lakh rupees which is spread
12:29across 10 years.
12:29>> [music]
12:30>> So every year depreciation saves him 2.5
12:33lakh rupees in taxes. But imagine this,
12:35the government comes and tells Dev that
12:37Dev, bro your cabs are like super
12:39important for our economy, yeah. So we
12:41will let you assume a depreciation of 25
12:43lakh rupees each year instead of 10
12:45lakhs and you can finish the spread in 4
12:47years instead of 10. So they will
12:49actually show his depreciation to be 25
12:51lakh rupees each year for 4 years and
12:54hence [music] he will save 25% on 25
12:56lakh rupees which is about 6.25 lakh
12:59rupees in taxes instead of 2.5 lakh
13:02rupees which he would have [music]
13:03otherwise saved with 10 lakh rupees in
13:06depreciation.
13:07This gives him 3.75 lakh rupees extra
13:10for 4 years to reinvest in better
13:12infrastructure so that he can grow his
13:14business quickly. Now does it mean Dev
13:17will pay less taxes?
13:18>> [music]
13:18>> No, no, no. In a normal case from year 1
13:21to 4, if this profit is 40 lakh rupees
13:23and 10 lakhs is deducted, then from a
13:26taxable income of 30 lakh rupees from
13:27year 1 to 4, he pays 7.5 lakh rupees.
13:31And then from year 5 to 10, he also pays
13:347.5 lakh rupees. The total is 75 lakh
13:37rupees.
13:38But with the same profit, if his
13:39depreciation is 25%, his taxable [music]
13:42income will be 15 lakh rupees from year
13:441 to year 4. And he will only pay 3.75
13:48lakh rupees in taxes. [music]
13:49But from year 5 to 10, he will pay 10
13:52lakh rupees a year. So the total is the
13:54same, 75 lakh rupees. But because from
13:57year 1 to 4, he pays less tax, he can
14:00use that money to reinvest [music] and
14:02grow his business faster. So let's call
14:04this 1 to 4 year phase as growth phase
14:07and 5 to [music] 10 year phase as post
14:09growth phase.
14:10Just like that, Jio has been in the
14:12growth phase for a decade because it
14:15keeps buying new towers, fiber, and
14:17airwaves.
14:18And each new purchase brings fresh
14:20[music] tax deductions. So its deferred
14:23tax pile keeps on growing.
14:25Now, the postponed tax on [music] its
14:26network now stands at 55,611
14:30crores. And it just added 5,637 crores
14:33in FY26 alone. So the taxes will rise
14:36when Jio enters its post growth phase.
14:40So what Jio did was basically they
14:42carried forwarded the unused deductions,
14:44which is what let it just pay 118 crores
14:47of tax today. So the question is, what
14:49happens next? Because they will finally
14:51have to pay taxes, right? Yes. At FY26
14:54base, the remaining 17,443 crores of tax
14:57savings last for about 4 years. [music]
14:59And as profits grow, Jio uses it faster
15:02and this runway is expected to run out
15:04around FY29. So the conclusion is the
15:06profit of 30,049 crores is real, but it
15:10is not [music] free cash flow. After
15:12paying for new towers, airwaves, EMIs,
15:15rent, and interest, they have a free
15:17cash flow of about 20,300
15:20crores left. Number two, profit will dip
15:22a little from the interest and
15:24depreciation catching up, which will
15:25[music] partly be offset by the debt
15:27that the IPO repays. Number three,
15:30today's 20,300 crores of free cash flow
15:32[music] included near zero tax bill that
15:35ends around FY29. After that, roughly
15:3811,000 crores a year will go to the
15:40government, which is again easy to
15:41handle since they have a free cash flow
15:43of about 20,300 crores.
15:46And lastly, to keep this free cash flow
15:48at the same level of 20,000 crores, Jio
15:51needs about 11,000 to 12,000 crores more
15:54in yearly earnings by then. [music] Now,
15:56if you spread this number across 524
15:58million customers, that's roughly 18
16:00rupees more per user per month.
16:02>> [music]
16:03>> So, in short, this average revenue per
16:05user needs to increase by 18 rupees
16:07assuming the same number of users. Last
16:10year, they increased by 8 rupees. So, if
16:12they can increase it by another 18
16:13rupees, that would be fantastic.
16:15>> [music]
16:16>> So, will the tax change affect the
16:18profits? Not at all, because they've
16:19already accounted for full tax before
16:22stating the profits. But, will it affect
16:23free cash flow? Yes.
16:25So, now the question is, how can Jio
16:27increase this average revenue per user
16:29by 18 rupees?
16:31Well, it's actually pretty simple. Jio
16:32has four engines. Engine number one is
16:35higher recharge prices. Like we saw in
16:36the pyramid, 77% of Jio's revenue comes
16:39from one thing, prepaid recharges. So,
16:42for Jio, recharge prices matter more
16:44than anything else. As of today, if you
16:46look at this chart, in FY26, Jio's
16:49average revenue per user stands at 214
16:51rupees, whereas Airtel stands at 257
16:55rupees. That's 43 rupees more per
16:57customer.
16:59Now, if you think about it, it's
17:00actually a huge number. Because if you
17:02multiply 43 by Jio's 52.4 crore
17:04customers, you will see that it is
17:06around 27,000 crore rupees a year.
17:09That's practically almost all of Jio's
17:12annual profit. So, can Jio get each
17:14customer to pay a little more?
17:15>> [music]
17:15>> Well, that is a billion-dollar question
17:17because the bottom of the pyramid chose
17:20Jio to save that 43 rupees. So, it is
17:22easier to push the middle and the top up
17:25using this pyramid ecosystem and push
17:27the average revenue from 214 rupees per
17:30user to 250 rupees per user.
17:32Now, is it hard? Well, the DRHP says
17:35that an average Indian mobile internet
17:37user is expected to pay 326 rupees a
17:40month by FY31. So, on paper, it only
17:43looks like a matter of time. Engine
17:45number two is internet at home. In fact,
17:48I was actually shocked to know that
17:50today only about 20% of Indian homes
17:52have a fixed broadband connection. That
17:54is because to build infrastructure to
17:56provide fiber cables in every home is
17:58slow and expensive, which is why Jio
18:01came out with AirFiber, using which
18:03instead of a cable, a home gets fast
18:05internet through a wireless signal from
18:07a nearby tower. And Jio already has 77%
18:11of this wireless home broadband market.
18:13Now, the DRHP expects homes with
18:15broadband to more than double from 6.4
18:18crores today to 15 crores by FY31. And
18:22once a home is connected through Jio's
18:24set-up box, the same TV can become a
18:26computer through Jio PC and a gaming
18:28console through Jio Games.
18:30Each [music] of these services are
18:32actually an upsell, which can increase
18:34the average revenue per user.
18:36Engine number [music] three are
18:37businesses.
18:38Now, Jio doesn't just sell to people. It
18:40also sells internet, cloud storage, and
18:43software services to companies. And the
18:45DRHP report expects that these business
18:47markets will grow between 11 to 21% each
18:50year until FY31. And the biggest
18:52opportunity is actually small and medium
18:55businesses. India has 7.9 crore small
18:58and medium businesses.
18:59But you know, it's absolutely shocking
19:01to know that less than [music] 3% of
19:03them use these digital services today.
19:05So, if Jio can sell even a small part of
19:07this to its existing business network,
19:10it becomes a huge source of revenue.
19:12>> [music]
19:12>> The last engine is AI. Jio already
19:14offers Google's paid AI plan and Google
19:17AI Pro is free for 18 months to its
19:19unlimited 5G users. And it plans [music]
19:21to sell AI products to these businesses,
19:23which will be made by a Reliance and
19:25Meta joint venture. So, if you see, Jio
19:28is not just providing a service, it is
19:30also owning the massive distribution of
19:3252.4
19:34crore customers. So, think about it.
19:36When an AI company wants to reach Indian
19:38users at scale, Jio is one of the
19:41easiest distribution channels to do it.
19:43So, again,
19:44>> [music]
19:44>> here they can earn through distribution
19:46commissions. And this brings us to
19:47another important question.
19:49If they have 30,000 crores in profits
19:51and 20,300 crores in free cash flow,
19:55what do they intend to do with the IPO
19:56money? Well, firstly, the IPO money is
19:59being used to repay debt. They have
20:00loans that carry an interest of only
20:021.4% to 5.18% a year, and repaying
20:05[music] 27,500 crores saves roughly 400
20:09to 1,400 crores of interest a year.
20:12Secondly, this IPO isn't really about
20:14needing the money. Jio had 43,200
20:17[music]
20:18crores in cash and investments in March
20:202026, and they generate about 20,300
20:23crores [music] of free cash a year. This
20:25IPO basically gives Jio a stock market
20:27price and a currency for future deals.
20:29Number two, it lets the 2020 investors
20:31like Meta, Google, KKR and others to
20:33eventually sell in a public market. And
20:35lastly, it tidies up the balance sheet,
20:38which the DRHP says will help it raise
20:40further resources in the future.
20:42So, the question is, considering this
20:44dominating position of Jio, will
20:46everything go well with Jio?
20:48Well, as always, out of the many recent
20:50DRHPs, there are three risks that are
20:51worth knowing as an investor and as a
20:53customer. Risk number one is the average
20:56revenue per user. You see, Jio's future
20:58rests on each customer paying more, but
21:00the DRHP itself admits that after the
21:022024 tariff hike, the churn actually
21:04jumped. In fact, Jio only added 6.4
21:08million net customers that year against
21:1142.5 million customers the year before.
21:13Why? Because Indians are price
21:16sensitive. And by the way, the DRHP also
21:18says that even the Telecom Regulatory
21:20Authority of India could introduce
21:21[music] tariff floors, ceilings, or
21:23other pricing interventions. So, the
21:25only challenge for all telecom companies
21:26is can they increase ARPU
21:28>> [music]
21:28>> while investing heavily into
21:29infrastructure and still maintain
21:31profitability? This is the challenge
21:33that was faced by BSNL, [music] Vodafone
21:34Idea, and now with Airtel and Jio. Risk
21:37number two is the capex comeback. You
21:39see, 6G, satellite internet, AI data
21:42centers, home broadband, and
21:43international expansion. Every one of
21:46them require heavy infrastructure
21:48investment that needs serious money.
21:50However, Jio isn't starting from
21:51scratch. In fact, this 20,300 crores
21:53that they've generated, this is after
21:55capex last year. And Akash Ambani says
21:58that 6G will come as a software upgrade
22:01and not as a fresh buildout. Risk number
22:04three is disruption from the sky. Jio
22:06itself calls satellite internet the
22:08potential next disruptor. It has spent
22:11lakhs of crores on towers, fiber, and
22:13spectrum, and a satellite network skips
22:16all of that. Starlink is expected to
22:18cost around 3,000 rupees a month in
22:20India, while JioFiber starts at 399
22:23rupees only.
22:24That gap as of now is too wide to worry
22:27about. These are the most important
22:29takeaways from Jio's DRHP. So, the
22:31question is should you invest in Jio's
22:34IPO or not? Well, as usual, I am not a
22:37SEBI registered financial advisor, and
22:39you should not listen to me. My job is
22:41to help you understand how a
22:43billion-dollar business really works,
22:45and the Jio IPO just gives me an excuse
22:47and the perfect opportunity to give you
22:49a taste of what happens behind these
22:51billion-dollar companies. These are the
22:53most important takeaways from Jio's
22:55DRHP. That's all from my side for today,
22:57guys. If you learned something valuable,
22:59please make Make to hit the like button
23:00to support our work. And for more such
23:02insightful business and political case
23:03studies, please subscribe to our
23:04channel. Thank you so much for watching.
23:06I will see you in the next one. Bye-bye.
23:10>> [music]
23:17[music]

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