What the Art Market Can Teach Us about TCGs - One Piece, Pokemon — Transcript
Full transcript
- 0:00Hello and welcome to OnePiece of
- 0:01Insight. In today's video, I'm going to
- 0:03be comparing TCGs to the fine art
- 0:06market, which is the market that I think
- 0:07is most similar to TCGs. We're going to
- 0:10talk about why I think TCGs are similar
- 0:12to fine art, what their markets have in
- 0:14common, what's different, and we're
- 0:15going to talk about what we can learn
- 0:17from the art market to tell us about the
- 0:18future of TCGs. Also, stay tuned to the
- 0:21end of the video. I want to talk about
- 0:22something that's been on my mind a
- 0:23little bit, and that's sort of the state
- 0:25of the market and how hyped it is and
- 0:27how I think we are rising to a level of
- 0:28risk of people getting burned. So, with
- 0:30that, as always, this is intended to be
- 0:32interesting and informative, but not
- 0:34financial advice. Let's jump right in.
- 0:35So, for the last few videos, we've been
- 0:37comparing TCGs as a class to other
- 0:39collectibles and then comparing TCGs
- 0:41against each other. So, I wanted to take
- 0:43a step back and say of all the
- 0:44collectibles that we've looked at, which
- 0:47collectible do I think that TCGs are
- 0:49most like, and what can we learn from
- 0:52the trajectory of that collectible class
- 0:55and how it might apply to TCGs in the
- 0:56future? And so, for me, like, the
- 0:59obvious answer is fine art. I think
- 1:01we've moved in a direction where fine
- 1:03art is now only accessible to like the
- 1:04wealthiest people in the world, and so
- 1:07trading cards have stepped in as like a
- 1:09democratization
- 1:10of art that anybody can enjoy regardless
- 1:13of what their budget is at different
- 1:15levels, right? You know, as I've said
- 1:17before, part of the reason I got into
- 1:18the OnePiece TCG is because to me the
- 1:20quality of the cards were like the
- 1:22evolution of like Japan's extraordinary
- 1:25history of printmaking, right? So, like,
- 1:27you know, the print on the right, like,
- 1:30the Luffy from the first anniversary set
- 1:32is deliberately evocative of that style,
- 1:34right? Which was created in Japan and is
- 1:37extremely authentic and was incredibly
- 1:39like world-leading at its time in their
- 1:40capabilities, right? And they're still
- 1:42doing that, which I think is amazing.
- 1:44Obviously, like, Pokémon has done a ton
- 1:46of promotions with art museums,
- 1:48different artists. And so, like, I think
- 1:50we see this acknowledgement, and I think
- 1:51we also see that commercially speaking,
- 1:53the cards that that referential to other
- 1:56pieces of fine art or other artistic
- 1:58styles tend to do really really well
- 2:00with the population, right? Showing that
- 2:02in some sense it is like a substitute
- 2:04for fine art. So, let's jump into why I
- 2:06think this is.
- 2:07So, here's my thesis. People love to
- 2:09surround themselves with beauty. They
- 2:11love to surround themselves with things
- 2:12that make them feel something and things
- 2:14that say something about who they are.
- 2:17I think fine art used to fill this role
- 2:20uh to a certain extent, right? You know,
- 2:22you walk into somebody's house, you see
- 2:23a beautiful piece of art on the wall,
- 2:26you know, if you know who the artist is,
- 2:27it may say something about their taste
- 2:29and their wealth and all these sorts of
- 2:30things. But, I think it's become
- 2:32inaccessible and I also think it's
- 2:33become devoid of meaning for most
- 2:35people, right? Um there's an amazing
- 2:37documentary on HBO called The Price of
- 2:39Everything. Um the
- 2:42you know, full sentence being
- 2:43essentially that people know the price
- 2:45of everything but the value of nothing.
- 2:47And I think that's worth considering in
- 2:48the context of how it applies to TCGs,
- 2:50right? It's an amazing documentary. If
- 2:51you get a chance, I highly encourage you
- 2:53to check it out.
- 2:54But, like I want to tell you a quick
- 2:55story from my own life of how I learned
- 2:58this lesson. So, before COVID, my wife
- 3:00and I, who are big fans of fine art,
- 3:02obviously you've seen this painting
- 3:03behind me
- 3:04uh in all of my videos, we decided that
- 3:06we wanted to start a business where we
- 3:08found sort of like under-appreciated art
- 3:11that was really really cheap that we
- 3:12could sell to regular people who were
- 3:14priced out of this like really fancy
- 3:16high-end fine art stuff, right? And
- 3:17oftentimes they were like artists who
- 3:20were there at the same time who like
- 3:22helped to create the styles that are
- 3:23famous, but for whatever reason in
- 3:26history, uh you know,
- 3:28did not get the acclaim that the others
- 3:30did, right? And what we found was is
- 3:32that we would like show people this art
- 3:34and they would be like, "Yeah, that's
- 3:35cool."
- 3:37But, like it didn't mean anything to
- 3:38them, right? They we did not get the
- 3:40reaction to the art that people get when
- 3:43they look at like a Gear 5 Luffy manga,
- 3:45right? Where they're like, "Wow, like
- 3:47that blows me away." And it's meaningful
- 3:49to me because Luffy is meaningful to me
- 3:51and the IP is meaningful to me, and the
- 3:53game is meaningful to me, right? You
- 3:55know, what's the difference between like
- 3:57a hand-drawn piece or a hand-painted
- 4:01piece compared to like a manufactured
- 4:02piece? You know, to the average person,
- 4:04if you're just looking at aesthetics,
- 4:06maybe it's nothing, right? So, I think
- 4:07this is both a story about how like fine
- 4:09art is no longer really appreciated by
- 4:11the average person. Like, it's become
- 4:13sort of so a feat that people don't
- 4:15really care about it anymore, but also
- 4:17that like we've found other ways to
- 4:18scratch that itch for fine art, and TCGs
- 4:21are one of them. Now, they're not the
- 4:23only one, right? So, I think part of
- 4:24what we do as humans is that we want our
- 4:26collections to express our taste and our
- 4:28identity, right? That could be with
- 4:30sports teams, that could be with apparel
- 4:31that we wear. Obviously, it could be
- 4:33trading cards, right? You know, it could
- 4:35be with the vehicles that we drive.
- 4:36There's lots of different ways to do
- 4:37this. But, I think that like trading
- 4:39cards and the IP behind trading cards
- 4:41have made this really, really easy for
- 4:44people to express what their tastes are,
- 4:46what their identity is, and
- 4:48automatically belong to a community. And
- 4:49the same way that like if you wear a
- 4:51sports jersey, anybody else who's a fan
- 4:53of that team is going to know that
- 4:55you're part of the club, right? Like,
- 4:57you know, if you have a bag and you have
- 4:59your Pokémon cards showing, anybody
- 5:01who's a fan of Pokémon is going to know
- 5:02that you're part of the club and want to
- 5:04talk to you, right? I think the other
- 5:05thing that's happening here, too, is
- 5:06that like, you know, sure, like most
- 5:08people have heard of like Picasso or Van
- 5:10Gogh or Monet. Like, maybe you have
- 5:12opinions about those, but like do most
- 5:14people have opinions about like artists
- 5:15that were born in like the last 50
- 5:17years? No. Like, in a lot of cases, like
- 5:20our favorite artists now are the people
- 5:22who design the art on the cards, right?
- 5:25Obviously, of course, number one, you
- 5:27know, Oda. Like, you know, people who
- 5:28were drawn to the manga, like we're
- 5:31drawn to his art, not just him as a
- 5:32storyteller, but also him as an artist,
- 5:34right? Of course, this is true for lots
- 5:36of other mangas as well. But, also like
- 5:38these card games have cultivated like
- 5:40some of the best modern artists and
- 5:42pulled them away from whatever else they
- 5:45might have been doing and brought them
- 5:47into these, right? So, you know, uh
- 5:49Agawa and Momoko, right? Are like
- 5:51standout artists in Pokémon and One
- 5:54Piece. You know, Shinji Kanda stands out
- 5:56to me because like Shinji Kanda actually
- 5:58had
- 5:59fine art, but like his dream was to make
- 6:01Pokémon cards, right? And I think we're
- 6:03seeing this like evolution of people who
- 6:05want to make art wanting to be part of
- 6:07this like revolution of like
- 6:10democratizing art away from fine art
- 6:14towards things that like anybody can own
- 6:16that are still beautiful, right? You
- 6:18know, Sunahara, Komiya have distinctive
- 6:20artistic styles that people really love.
- 6:22So, you know,
- 6:23I think there are a lot of people for
- 6:25whom if you ask them what their favorite
- 6:26artist is, they would give you someone
- 6:27who makes a trading card. And I think
- 6:29that really matters. Okay, so what do
- 6:31TCGs bring to the table? I think the
- 6:34TCGs bring quality art. I think they
- 6:36bring exclusivity and accessibility at
- 6:38any price, right? so price
- 6:40differentiation if you've watched
- 6:41previous videos. You know, they bring
- 6:43connection to society and culture. I
- 6:45think this is really, really right. I
- 6:47can go to a different country and I can
- 6:49wear, you know, a One Piece hat or a
- 6:52Pokémon shirt or whatever and I will
- 6:55find camaraderie anywhere in the world
- 6:57and that's such an unbelievable thing.
- 7:00Uh and I think that's part of what
- 7:00appeals to people about this, right?
- 7:03You know,
- 7:04it brings community. Like when we go to
- 7:06play at locals, like that brings
- 7:07community. Like I go to help my friend
- 7:09vend not because I really want to sell
- 7:11anything, but just because it's a great
- 7:13opportunity to meet with people who
- 7:14share my passion, right? Like those are
- 7:16all amazing things that TCGs bring.
- 7:18And then also it says something about
- 7:20you, right? It says what you're
- 7:21interested in, but also like, you know,
- 7:22One Piece is a story about fighting back
- 7:25against oppression and finding freedom.
- 7:26Like I love that about it. To me, that
- 7:29says something about me that I think is
- 7:30important and I know others feel that
- 7:32way as well. Okay, so this is kind of
- 7:33critical. So, let's talk about their
- 7:35markets because their markets actually
- 7:37have a lot in common. So, the first
- 7:39thing is and you know, the reason why
- 7:40the art market became successful was
- 7:43because it became globalized, right? And
- 7:45that's the same thing that we're seeing
- 7:46with trading cards. You know, the big
- 7:48trading card boom, you know, you had
- 7:49Magic starting in the United States, you
- 7:51had Pokémon starting in Japan, you know,
- 7:53it was already inherently global, but I
- 7:54think that it has become even more
- 7:56global over time. It is financialized,
- 7:58right? You know, I'm highlighting the
- 8:00PSA vault here because the existence of
- 8:03the PSA vault is actually like a direct
- 8:05copy of what already exists in the fine
- 8:07art markets. If you buy a piece of fine
- 8:10art at auction, let's say you spend
- 8:11$100,000.
- 8:13Your choice is you can have it delivered
- 8:15to you, but then you have to pay taxes
- 8:17on it. So, they have created essentially
- 8:19these vaults where you can send your art
- 8:21to that isn't technically you taking
- 8:23delivery of it, so you don't have to pay
- 8:24taxes on it, right? And that's exactly
- 8:26what the PSA vault is. And so, when you
- 8:28want to sell your art, you just tell the
- 8:30warehouse that you want it to be sold
- 8:32through this auction house, and you
- 8:34never have to deal with it yourself,
- 8:35right? Like we have in some cases like
- 8:39taking the collecting out of the
- 8:40collectible, right? And just made it a
- 8:42financial instrument. And while that is
- 8:45certainly not for me, like I have to
- 8:47acknowledge that that is the exact same
- 8:49thing that's happening in both markets
- 8:50and there's a clear parallel there.
- 8:52You know, we have critics, right?
- 8:53Obviously, art critics are famous, but
- 8:56also like anybody on YouTube talking
- 8:58about One Piece cards is a One Piece
- 9:00card critic, right?
- 9:02People get on here and say, "Here's my
- 9:04take on OP17." in the same way that
- 9:06somebody would write an article in the
- 9:07past in a newspaper and say, "Here's my
- 9:10take on this artist show." I think that
- 9:12people should have their own taste, but
- 9:14no doubt, you know, Logan Paul's taste
- 9:17in cards or other major influencers
- 9:19taste in cards are going to influence
- 9:21what people think about how desirable a
- 9:23card is. And the same thing is true in
- 9:25the art market. And then finally,
- 9:27there's price as status. Obviously, like
- 9:29the fact that art has become expensive
- 9:31has made art more desirable, right? It's
- 9:33a Veblen good in the same way that
- 9:35trading cards are a Veblen good. You
- 9:37know, by the nature of you having it,
- 9:39like that conveys a certain amount of
- 9:40status. So, how do they differ from fine
- 9:43art? And I think this is really
- 9:44important, too. So, the first is that
- 9:45they're more accessible. Like fine art,
- 9:47it is very hard to find anything fine
- 9:49art related for less than four figures.
- 9:51You can get a beautiful trading card for
- 9:53two bucks, whether it's Pokémon, One
- 9:55Piece, whatever, right? It's more
- 9:57collective. I think people used to think
- 10:00in the art market that it was an
- 10:01advantage that there was only one of a
- 10:03specific painting, that only one person
- 10:05could have it. But then, Jeff Koons, the
- 10:07person who created this balloon dog,
- 10:09realized that like if you made multiple
- 10:12of the same piece that were maybe a
- 10:13little bit different, but came from the
- 10:14same series,
- 10:16then like
- 10:17if your friend got one, well then you
- 10:19would FOMO into thinking that you needed
- 10:21one, too, right? And so, that sort of
- 10:23made the piece more desirable because
- 10:24more people could have it,
- 10:27and therefore it became more iconic,
- 10:29right? You know, if you went to your
- 10:30friend's house and you saw a
- 10:31one-of-a-kind painting, you might be
- 10:32like, "Oh, well that painting's really
- 10:33cool, but they already have it and they
- 10:34don't want to sell it, so like I'll just
- 10:36let it go." But if there's 10 of
- 10:38something, like now you can buy one. And
- 10:40I think trading cards have done this
- 10:41really, really well, right? They've
- 10:43identified things that do have a certain
- 10:45amount of scarcity, but they're not so
- 10:47scarce that we think it's ridiculous to
- 10:49desire them. Like we dream that we're
- 10:52going to get them. We may save money
- 10:53because we know we can go to a card show
- 10:55and find them. Or even worse, you go to
- 10:57a card show and you see that everyone
- 10:59has it and that makes you feel like you
- 11:00should have it because you're the only
- 11:01one who doesn't. And so, it's an
- 11:03interesting way in which a lack of
- 11:05rarity actually makes things more
- 11:06desirable sometimes.
- 11:09Uh you know, they're easier to price.
- 11:10You know, I've said this before, but I
- 11:12think like the big thing that PSA really
- 11:14has brought to the table is that it has
- 11:15commoditized trading cards in a way that
- 11:18no matter where you are in the world,
- 11:20you know, it is an agreed-upon standard
- 11:22and there is an agreed-upon price that
- 11:24is easy to identify,
- 11:26uh and so things are able to move much
- 11:28more quickly and they're much more
- 11:29liquid than art would typically be. Part
- 11:31of the reason, too, is that uh you know,
- 11:33there are a lot more sales, right?
- 11:35They're easier to store, they're easier
- 11:37to transport, so they're much easier to
- 11:38move, which means that they sell more
- 11:40often. There's also a higher population
- 11:42as well, so it's really easy to get a
- 11:43sense of what something's worth, and
- 11:45that makes it stable. That makes it
- 11:46liquid. Uh and then finally, like in
- 11:49general, even the most expensive cards
- 11:51are less expensive than the most
- 11:52expensive pieces of art. Okay, so in
- 11:54order to understand this, I need to give
- 11:55you a quick history of the art market.
- 11:57Now, I know most of you are not here for
- 11:58art history, so I'm going to keep this
- 12:00to like 2 minutes or less. But before
- 12:02the 1960s, art was basically like
- 12:04something that you bought for yourself.
- 12:06Like they painted your family, or maybe
- 12:08you were like a champion of a specific
- 12:09artist to keep it in your house. Like
- 12:11not to say that art didn't have value,
- 12:13but you didn't like buy art because you
- 12:15thought it was going to be expensive for
- 12:16the most part. And then in the 1960s,
- 12:18Andy Warhol figured out how he could
- 12:19like commercialize his fame to sell art
- 12:22in a much more commercial way than had
- 12:24ever been done before, right? And that
- 12:26sort of kicked off the idea of like a
- 12:28commercial primary market for art uh in
- 12:31a way that the world hadn't really seen
- 12:32before. And then in the 1970s, we saw
- 12:34like the foundation of secondary
- 12:36markets, right? So you had art that
- 12:38could now be resold at auction selling
- 12:40for more money than people were buying
- 12:42it for at primary markets. That sent a
- 12:44signal to the art community that, "Hey,
- 12:45this stuff is actually worth more than
- 12:47the artists were charging." Then because
- 12:48of that in the 1980s, we saw a big boom
- 12:51uh particularly in like, you know, North
- 12:53America and Europe over art. And then
- 12:56the hype got so big that eventually it
- 12:58crashed back down, right? So basically,
- 13:01people had only recently realized in the
- 13:02last like 20 years that this stuff could
- 13:04be really expensive, so they were trying
- 13:06to figure out, "Well, how expensive
- 13:07should it be?" And then it got too
- 13:08expensive, so it fell back down. And
- 13:11then in the '90s, we saw like increased
- 13:12globalization of art, right? So it
- 13:14wasn't just the United States and
- 13:15Europe, but you know, you had buyers
- 13:17from Asia who were getting involved in
- 13:19the art market, and that brought new
- 13:20demand, which then pulled the prices
- 13:22back up and brought them above where
- 13:24they had been in the '80s post-crash.
- 13:27Then in the early 2000s, you had the
- 13:28financial crisis of 2008, which caused
- 13:31the art market to crash again. And then
- 13:32you had, you know, the internet, which
- 13:34enabled more sales over the internet and
- 13:36just sort of increased global demands
- 13:38from markets that hadn't really been big
- 13:39buyers before, right? Like China is now
- 13:41a massive player in fine art in a way
- 13:43that they hadn't been previously. So
- 13:44now, you know, the art market is still
- 13:47doing relatively well uh despite having
- 13:49had these crashes in the past. Okay, so
- 13:51now let's talk about TCG. So, you know,
- 13:52from 1930 to 1990, you basically had
- 13:55sports cards. Pre-1990 was sort of like
- 13:57pre-1960 in the art market, right? Like
- 13:59people were making cards. Uh people
- 14:01liked them, they collected them. Some of
- 14:03them were even very expensive, but it
- 14:04wasn't like a thing yet. And then like
- 14:07the boom of the '90s, like the junk wax
- 14:10era, all of that stuff, that like made
- 14:12collecting these things become a real
- 14:14thing in the way that like, you know,
- 14:16Andy Warhol did, right? At the same
- 14:18time, you know, in the '90s and the
- 14:19early 2000s, we had the boom of the
- 14:22TCGs, right? We had Magic first, we had
- 14:24Pokémon, we had other ones like the Star
- 14:26Wars CCG. And we started to see them
- 14:29have some value in their time. This
- 14:31coincided with the rise of like easily
- 14:34accessible secondary market. So like
- 14:35eBay, right? Part of the story of why
- 14:37like Beanie Babies got so expensive is
- 14:39because they were like one of the first
- 14:41products that you could like go online
- 14:43and like look up a value for and then
- 14:45sell on a forum or sell on eBay. You
- 14:47know, going to an art auction house was
- 14:50not an easy thing to do in the 1970s.
- 14:54Just like selling baseball cards in the
- 14:561950s would not have been an easy thing
- 14:57to do, just logistically speaking,
- 14:59right? And so now that it's become so
- 15:01much easier, like the technology enabled
- 15:04the development of the secondary market,
- 15:06which took us to the 2010s, where things
- 15:08were generally a little bit quiet. Uh
- 15:10you know, the people continued to play
- 15:12the games, people continued to collect
- 15:13the cards, but, you know, things had
- 15:15settled down. It wasn't really the peak
- 15:16of sports cards that it was in the '90s
- 15:18and it wasn't really the peak of TCG
- 15:20craze in the late '90s and early 2000s.
- 15:23but we also saw a lot of these IPs
- 15:24really start to boom over that period of
- 15:26time. And then in the 2020s, we saw
- 15:28these cards start to boom as a result of
- 15:30COVID, right? People were sitting at
- 15:31home with nothing to do. They
- 15:32rediscovered their collections. This was
- 15:34something they could do in their house
- 15:35and still enjoy. And so we saw that
- 15:37boom. And then as a result of the boom
- 15:39from COVID, that sent a signal to a lot
- 15:41of companies like, "Hey, maybe we should
- 15:42try to make more TCGs cuz people seem to
- 15:44be into this." And then people came out
- 15:46of COVID and they really wanted to find
- 15:47community. And so games like One Piece,
- 15:50you know, the ability to go meet up with
- 15:51a community that you didn't know was a
- 15:53great way for people to get back out
- 15:55there and do things, right? So I think
- 15:56the condition of COVID really helped to
- 15:59sort of grow the TCG market in the
- 16:012020s. So all that said, what does this
- 16:03mean for the future? Well, so the first
- 16:04thing is, as I said two videos ago, I
- 16:06think TCGs check enough boxes to remain
- 16:08viable long-term, right? They do check
- 16:10some of the boxes of the problematic
- 16:11collectibles, but they also check a lot
- 16:12of the boxes of the successful
- 16:14collectibles. So I do think these are
- 16:16here to stay. Now that said, there will
- 16:19be growing pains, including the
- 16:20possibility of a crash and
- 16:22consolidation, right? Part of the reason
- 16:24I wanted to talk about the art market is
- 16:26because the art market has seen multiple
- 16:29booms, multiple crashes. And even though
- 16:32now it is considered relatively stable
- 16:34asset, that doesn't mean it hasn't been
- 16:36a rocky ride along the way. And right
- 16:39now, as it relates to the art market, I
- 16:41actually think that we are in like the
- 16:431980s. We are, you know, in this period
- 16:46where we have started to see these as an
- 16:48asset class. And as a result, people
- 16:50have been buying them up because they
- 16:52don't want to miss out. But that means
- 16:53that we're all like guessing about what
- 16:55the value is. And inevitably we're going
- 16:57to price them too high because we're
- 16:58going to keep guessing until we price
- 17:00them too high until there's pushback. So
- 17:02there is going to be some type of
- 17:03significant correction. Now is it going
- 17:05to be in a week? Is it going to be in 5
- 17:07years? I don't know the answer to that
- 17:08question. But, you know, if you are in
- 17:11this and you don't think that there is
- 17:13going to be a significant correction of
- 17:15like 50% or more at some point,
- 17:18Like I think you need to be honest with
- 17:19yourself about that because I think that
- 17:21like if we look at history, that is what
- 17:22happens to these collectibles. Even if,
- 17:25and that's my message, even if we think
- 17:27this is going to be a thing long-term
- 17:29and it's going to return to those
- 17:29values, there always going to be
- 17:31downturns, right? You know, we have seen
- 17:33these things caused by either sort of
- 17:36like crazy amounts of hype or
- 17:39macroeconomics. And I think that like
- 17:41the confluence of greed
- 17:43uh and the hype is going to be
- 17:45potentially problematic for us. I think
- 17:46that's going to be what pushes us over
- 17:47the edge unless we have some type of
- 17:49macroeconomic issue before then. Like
- 17:51the intersection of hoarding and
- 17:53overprinting, like there will be so much
- 17:55available supply uh that at a certain
- 17:58point like the amount of demand is just
- 18:00going to be exceeded and that's going to
- 18:01cause prices to fall. That's just my
- 18:03opinion, but I think that's what we've
- 18:04seen in a lot of other things in the
- 18:05past. I do want to say that like after
- 18:08being cleared of excessive hype, we will
- 18:10return to fundamentals and then resume
- 18:12long-term growth, I think, right? As I
- 18:14said, I think this is here to stay
- 18:16because I think that this is, you know,
- 18:18if not a replacement for fine art, I
- 18:20think that this is like a partner for
- 18:23fine art. You know, one of the lessons
- 18:25from the art market is that like the
- 18:27people who thought that this was going
- 18:28to be a big thing, they were right. It
- 18:30just took years for the market to grow
- 18:34to the point of where they thought it
- 18:36already was. And I think that was the
- 18:38big mistake that they made, not that it
- 18:39wasn't ever going to get there, but they
- 18:41just
- 18:42thought that it was going to get there
- 18:43too quickly. And that's what I see
- 18:44happening, too. And so I wanted to
- 18:45include this chart, which is the global
- 18:47art market from 2009 to 2025, to show
- 18:51that post economic collapse in 2008,
- 18:53like the art market did recover. And
- 18:55while it has not been absolutely booming
- 18:58ever since, it has been stable, right?
- 19:00And so I think at a certain point like
- 19:02TCGs will become something that we
- 19:05accept uh as having value, but also
- 19:08there will be a new sexier thing that
- 19:10comes along
- 19:12uh that steals the hype and that's going
- 19:14to be okay. So, I think the most
- 19:16important message to take away here is
- 19:18like we're in an unsustainable period
- 19:20where everything has gone up in price
- 19:22and everything has done really, really
- 19:24well. Like markets cannot exist like
- 19:26that, right? Markets will correct, but
- 19:29it's not just that there's boom and
- 19:31bust, but like if we think this is real,
- 19:33there's also consolidation. There's also
- 19:36like, you know, slow growth. There's
- 19:38also trading sideways. These are all
- 19:41options for what can happen for the
- 19:42markets. Before we close today, I wanted
- 19:44to talk about a recent Straw Hat
- 19:46Speculator video where he talks about
- 19:48his concerns about the amount of hype in
- 19:50the market and people thinking that
- 19:52they're just going to be able to like
- 19:53waltz in and 2x their money overnight or
- 19:5610x their money overnight. You know,
- 19:57he's not the only creator that's talking
- 19:59about this. I've heard about it on the
- 20:00Card Lounge podcast too, but I think
- 20:02this is a really, really important point
- 20:04and I think I would be remiss if I
- 20:05didn't share how much I agree with this.
- 20:07Seeing how much prices have risen and
- 20:09more importantly hearing and comments
- 20:11from people saying that like, you know,
- 20:13I just got into this and I'm going to
- 20:14make five times my money by doing X
- 20:16thing in a month. Like that's just not
- 20:18realistic market behavior, right? And so
- 20:21I think we need to think about like why
- 20:22we're in this and what we hope to get
- 20:24out of it. You know, something that I
- 20:26think Straw Hat Speculator does in the
- 20:28video that's really, really well and I
- 20:30commend him for this is to be upfront
- 20:32that his channel is focused on investing
- 20:35and that the way that you approach
- 20:37investing
- 20:38is one way. My channel is focused on
- 20:40collecting. We have very different
- 20:42approaches in the content that we're
- 20:44trying to deliver and the messages we're
- 20:45trying to deliver, right? But I think
- 20:47sometimes people don't understand the
- 20:49distinction between those two things.
- 20:50They think they can just buy a card that
- 20:53they want and it's like automatically an
- 20:55investment. The content I deliver is
- 20:57tailored around collecting because if I
- 21:00were trying to invest in TCGs, I would
- 21:02engage in totally different behavior,
- 21:03right? So, of course I'm talking about
- 21:05cards I like. I'm talking about cards
- 21:07that I think are undervalued because as
- 21:08a collector, you know, I want to
- 21:10maximize the amount of value that I can
- 21:12get out of spending my money. But that
- 21:14doesn't mean that it's an investment and
- 21:15it doesn't mean that I think of it as an
- 21:16investment. And I think this is an
- 21:18important distinction, right? I hold my
- 21:20cards as a collector and I understand
- 21:22that these cards could go to zero and I
- 21:25have come to terms with that risk,
- 21:26right? All of our collecting or whatever
- 21:29you're doing out there needs to be
- 21:30aligned with whatever your risk
- 21:32tolerance is, right? So, if you are
- 21:34invested in this and you have a lot of
- 21:37money in it and you haven't come to
- 21:38terms with the fact that this is very,
- 21:40very high risk,
- 21:42that might not be the right thing for
- 21:43you. So,
- 21:45there's no right or wrong answer here,
- 21:46but I think the important thing is that
- 21:47we need to be honest with ourselves
- 21:49about what we're trying to accomplish
- 21:50and what our expectations are and make
- 21:52sure that it's aligned with reality,
- 21:54right? Things are not going to go up
- 21:56forever and we need to be honest with
- 21:57ourselves about that. So, that's all I
- 21:58have for today. As always, I hope you
- 22:00found this helpful. You know, I don't
- 22:02want to come across as all doom and
- 22:03gloom. I you know, mean what I say when
- 22:05I think that this is going to be with us
- 22:07for the long term. Um but I also want to
- 22:09be realistic and I care about all of you
- 22:11and I don't want to see any of you be
- 22:13burned. So, again, like as long as
- 22:16you're happy with your choices, like
- 22:17that's all I care about. That's what I'm
- 22:19in this for. I'm in this for the love
- 22:20and you know, I've come to peace with my
- 22:23decisions, whatever may happen and I
- 22:24hope that you do the same. So, with
- 22:26that, as always, you know, if you
- 22:28disagree,
- 22:30uh hit me up in the comments. I'm always
- 22:31happy to chat with y'all and I'll see
- 22:33you in the next one.
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