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What the Art Market Can Teach Us about TCGs - One Piece, Pokemon — Transcript

by One Piece of Insight · 5,044 words · 712 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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  1. 0:00Hello and welcome to OnePiece of
  2. 0:01Insight. In today's video, I'm going to
  3. 0:03be comparing TCGs to the fine art
  4. 0:06market, which is the market that I think
  5. 0:07is most similar to TCGs. We're going to
  6. 0:10talk about why I think TCGs are similar
  7. 0:12to fine art, what their markets have in
  8. 0:14common, what's different, and we're
  9. 0:15going to talk about what we can learn
  10. 0:17from the art market to tell us about the
  11. 0:18future of TCGs. Also, stay tuned to the
  12. 0:21end of the video. I want to talk about
  13. 0:22something that's been on my mind a
  14. 0:23little bit, and that's sort of the state
  15. 0:25of the market and how hyped it is and
  16. 0:27how I think we are rising to a level of
  17. 0:28risk of people getting burned. So, with
  18. 0:30that, as always, this is intended to be
  19. 0:32interesting and informative, but not
  20. 0:34financial advice. Let's jump right in.
  21. 0:35So, for the last few videos, we've been
  22. 0:37comparing TCGs as a class to other
  23. 0:39collectibles and then comparing TCGs
  24. 0:41against each other. So, I wanted to take
  25. 0:43a step back and say of all the
  26. 0:44collectibles that we've looked at, which
  27. 0:47collectible do I think that TCGs are
  28. 0:49most like, and what can we learn from
  29. 0:52the trajectory of that collectible class
  30. 0:55and how it might apply to TCGs in the
  31. 0:56future? And so, for me, like, the
  32. 0:59obvious answer is fine art. I think
  33. 1:01we've moved in a direction where fine
  34. 1:03art is now only accessible to like the
  35. 1:04wealthiest people in the world, and so
  36. 1:07trading cards have stepped in as like a
  37. 1:09democratization
  38. 1:10of art that anybody can enjoy regardless
  39. 1:13of what their budget is at different
  40. 1:15levels, right? You know, as I've said
  41. 1:17before, part of the reason I got into
  42. 1:18the OnePiece TCG is because to me the
  43. 1:20quality of the cards were like the
  44. 1:22evolution of like Japan's extraordinary
  45. 1:25history of printmaking, right? So, like,
  46. 1:27you know, the print on the right, like,
  47. 1:30the Luffy from the first anniversary set
  48. 1:32is deliberately evocative of that style,
  49. 1:34right? Which was created in Japan and is
  50. 1:37extremely authentic and was incredibly
  51. 1:39like world-leading at its time in their
  52. 1:40capabilities, right? And they're still
  53. 1:42doing that, which I think is amazing.
  54. 1:44Obviously, like, Pokémon has done a ton
  55. 1:46of promotions with art museums,
  56. 1:48different artists. And so, like, I think
  57. 1:50we see this acknowledgement, and I think
  58. 1:51we also see that commercially speaking,
  59. 1:53the cards that that referential to other
  60. 1:56pieces of fine art or other artistic
  61. 1:58styles tend to do really really well
  62. 2:00with the population, right? Showing that
  63. 2:02in some sense it is like a substitute
  64. 2:04for fine art. So, let's jump into why I
  65. 2:06think this is.
  66. 2:07So, here's my thesis. People love to
  67. 2:09surround themselves with beauty. They
  68. 2:11love to surround themselves with things
  69. 2:12that make them feel something and things
  70. 2:14that say something about who they are.
  71. 2:17I think fine art used to fill this role
  72. 2:20uh to a certain extent, right? You know,
  73. 2:22you walk into somebody's house, you see
  74. 2:23a beautiful piece of art on the wall,
  75. 2:26you know, if you know who the artist is,
  76. 2:27it may say something about their taste
  77. 2:29and their wealth and all these sorts of
  78. 2:30things. But, I think it's become
  79. 2:32inaccessible and I also think it's
  80. 2:33become devoid of meaning for most
  81. 2:35people, right? Um there's an amazing
  82. 2:37documentary on HBO called The Price of
  83. 2:39Everything. Um the
  84. 2:42you know, full sentence being
  85. 2:43essentially that people know the price
  86. 2:45of everything but the value of nothing.
  87. 2:47And I think that's worth considering in
  88. 2:48the context of how it applies to TCGs,
  89. 2:50right? It's an amazing documentary. If
  90. 2:51you get a chance, I highly encourage you
  91. 2:53to check it out.
  92. 2:54But, like I want to tell you a quick
  93. 2:55story from my own life of how I learned
  94. 2:58this lesson. So, before COVID, my wife
  95. 3:00and I, who are big fans of fine art,
  96. 3:02obviously you've seen this painting
  97. 3:03behind me
  98. 3:04uh in all of my videos, we decided that
  99. 3:06we wanted to start a business where we
  100. 3:08found sort of like under-appreciated art
  101. 3:11that was really really cheap that we
  102. 3:12could sell to regular people who were
  103. 3:14priced out of this like really fancy
  104. 3:16high-end fine art stuff, right? And
  105. 3:17oftentimes they were like artists who
  106. 3:20were there at the same time who like
  107. 3:22helped to create the styles that are
  108. 3:23famous, but for whatever reason in
  109. 3:26history, uh you know,
  110. 3:28did not get the acclaim that the others
  111. 3:30did, right? And what we found was is
  112. 3:32that we would like show people this art
  113. 3:34and they would be like, "Yeah, that's
  114. 3:35cool."
  115. 3:37But, like it didn't mean anything to
  116. 3:38them, right? They we did not get the
  117. 3:40reaction to the art that people get when
  118. 3:43they look at like a Gear 5 Luffy manga,
  119. 3:45right? Where they're like, "Wow, like
  120. 3:47that blows me away." And it's meaningful
  121. 3:49to me because Luffy is meaningful to me
  122. 3:51and the IP is meaningful to me, and the
  123. 3:53game is meaningful to me, right? You
  124. 3:55know, what's the difference between like
  125. 3:57a hand-drawn piece or a hand-painted
  126. 4:01piece compared to like a manufactured
  127. 4:02piece? You know, to the average person,
  128. 4:04if you're just looking at aesthetics,
  129. 4:06maybe it's nothing, right? So, I think
  130. 4:07this is both a story about how like fine
  131. 4:09art is no longer really appreciated by
  132. 4:11the average person. Like, it's become
  133. 4:13sort of so a feat that people don't
  134. 4:15really care about it anymore, but also
  135. 4:17that like we've found other ways to
  136. 4:18scratch that itch for fine art, and TCGs
  137. 4:21are one of them. Now, they're not the
  138. 4:23only one, right? So, I think part of
  139. 4:24what we do as humans is that we want our
  140. 4:26collections to express our taste and our
  141. 4:28identity, right? That could be with
  142. 4:30sports teams, that could be with apparel
  143. 4:31that we wear. Obviously, it could be
  144. 4:33trading cards, right? You know, it could
  145. 4:35be with the vehicles that we drive.
  146. 4:36There's lots of different ways to do
  147. 4:37this. But, I think that like trading
  148. 4:39cards and the IP behind trading cards
  149. 4:41have made this really, really easy for
  150. 4:44people to express what their tastes are,
  151. 4:46what their identity is, and
  152. 4:48automatically belong to a community. And
  153. 4:49the same way that like if you wear a
  154. 4:51sports jersey, anybody else who's a fan
  155. 4:53of that team is going to know that
  156. 4:55you're part of the club, right? Like,
  157. 4:57you know, if you have a bag and you have
  158. 4:59your Pokémon cards showing, anybody
  159. 5:01who's a fan of Pokémon is going to know
  160. 5:02that you're part of the club and want to
  161. 5:04talk to you, right? I think the other
  162. 5:05thing that's happening here, too, is
  163. 5:06that like, you know, sure, like most
  164. 5:08people have heard of like Picasso or Van
  165. 5:10Gogh or Monet. Like, maybe you have
  166. 5:12opinions about those, but like do most
  167. 5:14people have opinions about like artists
  168. 5:15that were born in like the last 50
  169. 5:17years? No. Like, in a lot of cases, like
  170. 5:20our favorite artists now are the people
  171. 5:22who design the art on the cards, right?
  172. 5:25Obviously, of course, number one, you
  173. 5:27know, Oda. Like, you know, people who
  174. 5:28were drawn to the manga, like we're
  175. 5:31drawn to his art, not just him as a
  176. 5:32storyteller, but also him as an artist,
  177. 5:34right? Of course, this is true for lots
  178. 5:36of other mangas as well. But, also like
  179. 5:38these card games have cultivated like
  180. 5:40some of the best modern artists and
  181. 5:42pulled them away from whatever else they
  182. 5:45might have been doing and brought them
  183. 5:47into these, right? So, you know, uh
  184. 5:49Agawa and Momoko, right? Are like
  185. 5:51standout artists in Pokémon and One
  186. 5:54Piece. You know, Shinji Kanda stands out
  187. 5:56to me because like Shinji Kanda actually
  188. 5:58had
  189. 5:59fine art, but like his dream was to make
  190. 6:01Pokémon cards, right? And I think we're
  191. 6:03seeing this like evolution of people who
  192. 6:05want to make art wanting to be part of
  193. 6:07this like revolution of like
  194. 6:10democratizing art away from fine art
  195. 6:14towards things that like anybody can own
  196. 6:16that are still beautiful, right? You
  197. 6:18know, Sunahara, Komiya have distinctive
  198. 6:20artistic styles that people really love.
  199. 6:22So, you know,
  200. 6:23I think there are a lot of people for
  201. 6:25whom if you ask them what their favorite
  202. 6:26artist is, they would give you someone
  203. 6:27who makes a trading card. And I think
  204. 6:29that really matters. Okay, so what do
  205. 6:31TCGs bring to the table? I think the
  206. 6:34TCGs bring quality art. I think they
  207. 6:36bring exclusivity and accessibility at
  208. 6:38any price, right? so price
  209. 6:40differentiation if you've watched
  210. 6:41previous videos. You know, they bring
  211. 6:43connection to society and culture. I
  212. 6:45think this is really, really right. I
  213. 6:47can go to a different country and I can
  214. 6:49wear, you know, a One Piece hat or a
  215. 6:52Pokémon shirt or whatever and I will
  216. 6:55find camaraderie anywhere in the world
  217. 6:57and that's such an unbelievable thing.
  218. 7:00Uh and I think that's part of what
  219. 7:00appeals to people about this, right?
  220. 7:03You know,
  221. 7:04it brings community. Like when we go to
  222. 7:06play at locals, like that brings
  223. 7:07community. Like I go to help my friend
  224. 7:09vend not because I really want to sell
  225. 7:11anything, but just because it's a great
  226. 7:13opportunity to meet with people who
  227. 7:14share my passion, right? Like those are
  228. 7:16all amazing things that TCGs bring.
  229. 7:18And then also it says something about
  230. 7:20you, right? It says what you're
  231. 7:21interested in, but also like, you know,
  232. 7:22One Piece is a story about fighting back
  233. 7:25against oppression and finding freedom.
  234. 7:26Like I love that about it. To me, that
  235. 7:29says something about me that I think is
  236. 7:30important and I know others feel that
  237. 7:32way as well. Okay, so this is kind of
  238. 7:33critical. So, let's talk about their
  239. 7:35markets because their markets actually
  240. 7:37have a lot in common. So, the first
  241. 7:39thing is and you know, the reason why
  242. 7:40the art market became successful was
  243. 7:43because it became globalized, right? And
  244. 7:45that's the same thing that we're seeing
  245. 7:46with trading cards. You know, the big
  246. 7:48trading card boom, you know, you had
  247. 7:49Magic starting in the United States, you
  248. 7:51had Pokémon starting in Japan, you know,
  249. 7:53it was already inherently global, but I
  250. 7:54think that it has become even more
  251. 7:56global over time. It is financialized,
  252. 7:58right? You know, I'm highlighting the
  253. 8:00PSA vault here because the existence of
  254. 8:03the PSA vault is actually like a direct
  255. 8:05copy of what already exists in the fine
  256. 8:07art markets. If you buy a piece of fine
  257. 8:10art at auction, let's say you spend
  258. 8:11$100,000.
  259. 8:13Your choice is you can have it delivered
  260. 8:15to you, but then you have to pay taxes
  261. 8:17on it. So, they have created essentially
  262. 8:19these vaults where you can send your art
  263. 8:21to that isn't technically you taking
  264. 8:23delivery of it, so you don't have to pay
  265. 8:24taxes on it, right? And that's exactly
  266. 8:26what the PSA vault is. And so, when you
  267. 8:28want to sell your art, you just tell the
  268. 8:30warehouse that you want it to be sold
  269. 8:32through this auction house, and you
  270. 8:34never have to deal with it yourself,
  271. 8:35right? Like we have in some cases like
  272. 8:39taking the collecting out of the
  273. 8:40collectible, right? And just made it a
  274. 8:42financial instrument. And while that is
  275. 8:45certainly not for me, like I have to
  276. 8:47acknowledge that that is the exact same
  277. 8:49thing that's happening in both markets
  278. 8:50and there's a clear parallel there.
  279. 8:52You know, we have critics, right?
  280. 8:53Obviously, art critics are famous, but
  281. 8:56also like anybody on YouTube talking
  282. 8:58about One Piece cards is a One Piece
  283. 9:00card critic, right?
  284. 9:02People get on here and say, "Here's my
  285. 9:04take on OP17." in the same way that
  286. 9:06somebody would write an article in the
  287. 9:07past in a newspaper and say, "Here's my
  288. 9:10take on this artist show." I think that
  289. 9:12people should have their own taste, but
  290. 9:14no doubt, you know, Logan Paul's taste
  291. 9:17in cards or other major influencers
  292. 9:19taste in cards are going to influence
  293. 9:21what people think about how desirable a
  294. 9:23card is. And the same thing is true in
  295. 9:25the art market. And then finally,
  296. 9:27there's price as status. Obviously, like
  297. 9:29the fact that art has become expensive
  298. 9:31has made art more desirable, right? It's
  299. 9:33a Veblen good in the same way that
  300. 9:35trading cards are a Veblen good. You
  301. 9:37know, by the nature of you having it,
  302. 9:39like that conveys a certain amount of
  303. 9:40status. So, how do they differ from fine
  304. 9:43art? And I think this is really
  305. 9:44important, too. So, the first is that
  306. 9:45they're more accessible. Like fine art,
  307. 9:47it is very hard to find anything fine
  308. 9:49art related for less than four figures.
  309. 9:51You can get a beautiful trading card for
  310. 9:53two bucks, whether it's Pokémon, One
  311. 9:55Piece, whatever, right? It's more
  312. 9:57collective. I think people used to think
  313. 10:00in the art market that it was an
  314. 10:01advantage that there was only one of a
  315. 10:03specific painting, that only one person
  316. 10:05could have it. But then, Jeff Koons, the
  317. 10:07person who created this balloon dog,
  318. 10:09realized that like if you made multiple
  319. 10:12of the same piece that were maybe a
  320. 10:13little bit different, but came from the
  321. 10:14same series,
  322. 10:16then like
  323. 10:17if your friend got one, well then you
  324. 10:19would FOMO into thinking that you needed
  325. 10:21one, too, right? And so, that sort of
  326. 10:23made the piece more desirable because
  327. 10:24more people could have it,
  328. 10:27and therefore it became more iconic,
  329. 10:29right? You know, if you went to your
  330. 10:30friend's house and you saw a
  331. 10:31one-of-a-kind painting, you might be
  332. 10:32like, "Oh, well that painting's really
  333. 10:33cool, but they already have it and they
  334. 10:34don't want to sell it, so like I'll just
  335. 10:36let it go." But if there's 10 of
  336. 10:38something, like now you can buy one. And
  337. 10:40I think trading cards have done this
  338. 10:41really, really well, right? They've
  339. 10:43identified things that do have a certain
  340. 10:45amount of scarcity, but they're not so
  341. 10:47scarce that we think it's ridiculous to
  342. 10:49desire them. Like we dream that we're
  343. 10:52going to get them. We may save money
  344. 10:53because we know we can go to a card show
  345. 10:55and find them. Or even worse, you go to
  346. 10:57a card show and you see that everyone
  347. 10:59has it and that makes you feel like you
  348. 11:00should have it because you're the only
  349. 11:01one who doesn't. And so, it's an
  350. 11:03interesting way in which a lack of
  351. 11:05rarity actually makes things more
  352. 11:06desirable sometimes.
  353. 11:09Uh you know, they're easier to price.
  354. 11:10You know, I've said this before, but I
  355. 11:12think like the big thing that PSA really
  356. 11:14has brought to the table is that it has
  357. 11:15commoditized trading cards in a way that
  358. 11:18no matter where you are in the world,
  359. 11:20you know, it is an agreed-upon standard
  360. 11:22and there is an agreed-upon price that
  361. 11:24is easy to identify,
  362. 11:26uh and so things are able to move much
  363. 11:28more quickly and they're much more
  364. 11:29liquid than art would typically be. Part
  365. 11:31of the reason, too, is that uh you know,
  366. 11:33there are a lot more sales, right?
  367. 11:35They're easier to store, they're easier
  368. 11:37to transport, so they're much easier to
  369. 11:38move, which means that they sell more
  370. 11:40often. There's also a higher population
  371. 11:42as well, so it's really easy to get a
  372. 11:43sense of what something's worth, and
  373. 11:45that makes it stable. That makes it
  374. 11:46liquid. Uh and then finally, like in
  375. 11:49general, even the most expensive cards
  376. 11:51are less expensive than the most
  377. 11:52expensive pieces of art. Okay, so in
  378. 11:54order to understand this, I need to give
  379. 11:55you a quick history of the art market.
  380. 11:57Now, I know most of you are not here for
  381. 11:58art history, so I'm going to keep this
  382. 12:00to like 2 minutes or less. But before
  383. 12:02the 1960s, art was basically like
  384. 12:04something that you bought for yourself.
  385. 12:06Like they painted your family, or maybe
  386. 12:08you were like a champion of a specific
  387. 12:09artist to keep it in your house. Like
  388. 12:11not to say that art didn't have value,
  389. 12:13but you didn't like buy art because you
  390. 12:15thought it was going to be expensive for
  391. 12:16the most part. And then in the 1960s,
  392. 12:18Andy Warhol figured out how he could
  393. 12:19like commercialize his fame to sell art
  394. 12:22in a much more commercial way than had
  395. 12:24ever been done before, right? And that
  396. 12:26sort of kicked off the idea of like a
  397. 12:28commercial primary market for art uh in
  398. 12:31a way that the world hadn't really seen
  399. 12:32before. And then in the 1970s, we saw
  400. 12:34like the foundation of secondary
  401. 12:36markets, right? So you had art that
  402. 12:38could now be resold at auction selling
  403. 12:40for more money than people were buying
  404. 12:42it for at primary markets. That sent a
  405. 12:44signal to the art community that, "Hey,
  406. 12:45this stuff is actually worth more than
  407. 12:47the artists were charging." Then because
  408. 12:48of that in the 1980s, we saw a big boom
  409. 12:51uh particularly in like, you know, North
  410. 12:53America and Europe over art. And then
  411. 12:56the hype got so big that eventually it
  412. 12:58crashed back down, right? So basically,
  413. 13:01people had only recently realized in the
  414. 13:02last like 20 years that this stuff could
  415. 13:04be really expensive, so they were trying
  416. 13:06to figure out, "Well, how expensive
  417. 13:07should it be?" And then it got too
  418. 13:08expensive, so it fell back down. And
  419. 13:11then in the '90s, we saw like increased
  420. 13:12globalization of art, right? So it
  421. 13:14wasn't just the United States and
  422. 13:15Europe, but you know, you had buyers
  423. 13:17from Asia who were getting involved in
  424. 13:19the art market, and that brought new
  425. 13:20demand, which then pulled the prices
  426. 13:22back up and brought them above where
  427. 13:24they had been in the '80s post-crash.
  428. 13:27Then in the early 2000s, you had the
  429. 13:28financial crisis of 2008, which caused
  430. 13:31the art market to crash again. And then
  431. 13:32you had, you know, the internet, which
  432. 13:34enabled more sales over the internet and
  433. 13:36just sort of increased global demands
  434. 13:38from markets that hadn't really been big
  435. 13:39buyers before, right? Like China is now
  436. 13:41a massive player in fine art in a way
  437. 13:43that they hadn't been previously. So
  438. 13:44now, you know, the art market is still
  439. 13:47doing relatively well uh despite having
  440. 13:49had these crashes in the past. Okay, so
  441. 13:51now let's talk about TCG. So, you know,
  442. 13:52from 1930 to 1990, you basically had
  443. 13:55sports cards. Pre-1990 was sort of like
  444. 13:57pre-1960 in the art market, right? Like
  445. 13:59people were making cards. Uh people
  446. 14:01liked them, they collected them. Some of
  447. 14:03them were even very expensive, but it
  448. 14:04wasn't like a thing yet. And then like
  449. 14:07the boom of the '90s, like the junk wax
  450. 14:10era, all of that stuff, that like made
  451. 14:12collecting these things become a real
  452. 14:14thing in the way that like, you know,
  453. 14:16Andy Warhol did, right? At the same
  454. 14:18time, you know, in the '90s and the
  455. 14:19early 2000s, we had the boom of the
  456. 14:22TCGs, right? We had Magic first, we had
  457. 14:24Pokémon, we had other ones like the Star
  458. 14:26Wars CCG. And we started to see them
  459. 14:29have some value in their time. This
  460. 14:31coincided with the rise of like easily
  461. 14:34accessible secondary market. So like
  462. 14:35eBay, right? Part of the story of why
  463. 14:37like Beanie Babies got so expensive is
  464. 14:39because they were like one of the first
  465. 14:41products that you could like go online
  466. 14:43and like look up a value for and then
  467. 14:45sell on a forum or sell on eBay. You
  468. 14:47know, going to an art auction house was
  469. 14:50not an easy thing to do in the 1970s.
  470. 14:54Just like selling baseball cards in the
  471. 14:561950s would not have been an easy thing
  472. 14:57to do, just logistically speaking,
  473. 14:59right? And so now that it's become so
  474. 15:01much easier, like the technology enabled
  475. 15:04the development of the secondary market,
  476. 15:06which took us to the 2010s, where things
  477. 15:08were generally a little bit quiet. Uh
  478. 15:10you know, the people continued to play
  479. 15:12the games, people continued to collect
  480. 15:13the cards, but, you know, things had
  481. 15:15settled down. It wasn't really the peak
  482. 15:16of sports cards that it was in the '90s
  483. 15:18and it wasn't really the peak of TCG
  484. 15:20craze in the late '90s and early 2000s.
  485. 15:23but we also saw a lot of these IPs
  486. 15:24really start to boom over that period of
  487. 15:26time. And then in the 2020s, we saw
  488. 15:28these cards start to boom as a result of
  489. 15:30COVID, right? People were sitting at
  490. 15:31home with nothing to do. They
  491. 15:32rediscovered their collections. This was
  492. 15:34something they could do in their house
  493. 15:35and still enjoy. And so we saw that
  494. 15:37boom. And then as a result of the boom
  495. 15:39from COVID, that sent a signal to a lot
  496. 15:41of companies like, "Hey, maybe we should
  497. 15:42try to make more TCGs cuz people seem to
  498. 15:44be into this." And then people came out
  499. 15:46of COVID and they really wanted to find
  500. 15:47community. And so games like One Piece,
  501. 15:50you know, the ability to go meet up with
  502. 15:51a community that you didn't know was a
  503. 15:53great way for people to get back out
  504. 15:55there and do things, right? So I think
  505. 15:56the condition of COVID really helped to
  506. 15:59sort of grow the TCG market in the
  507. 16:012020s. So all that said, what does this
  508. 16:03mean for the future? Well, so the first
  509. 16:04thing is, as I said two videos ago, I
  510. 16:06think TCGs check enough boxes to remain
  511. 16:08viable long-term, right? They do check
  512. 16:10some of the boxes of the problematic
  513. 16:11collectibles, but they also check a lot
  514. 16:12of the boxes of the successful
  515. 16:14collectibles. So I do think these are
  516. 16:16here to stay. Now that said, there will
  517. 16:19be growing pains, including the
  518. 16:20possibility of a crash and
  519. 16:22consolidation, right? Part of the reason
  520. 16:24I wanted to talk about the art market is
  521. 16:26because the art market has seen multiple
  522. 16:29booms, multiple crashes. And even though
  523. 16:32now it is considered relatively stable
  524. 16:34asset, that doesn't mean it hasn't been
  525. 16:36a rocky ride along the way. And right
  526. 16:39now, as it relates to the art market, I
  527. 16:41actually think that we are in like the
  528. 16:431980s. We are, you know, in this period
  529. 16:46where we have started to see these as an
  530. 16:48asset class. And as a result, people
  531. 16:50have been buying them up because they
  532. 16:52don't want to miss out. But that means
  533. 16:53that we're all like guessing about what
  534. 16:55the value is. And inevitably we're going
  535. 16:57to price them too high because we're
  536. 16:58going to keep guessing until we price
  537. 17:00them too high until there's pushback. So
  538. 17:02there is going to be some type of
  539. 17:03significant correction. Now is it going
  540. 17:05to be in a week? Is it going to be in 5
  541. 17:07years? I don't know the answer to that
  542. 17:08question. But, you know, if you are in
  543. 17:11this and you don't think that there is
  544. 17:13going to be a significant correction of
  545. 17:15like 50% or more at some point,
  546. 17:18Like I think you need to be honest with
  547. 17:19yourself about that because I think that
  548. 17:21like if we look at history, that is what
  549. 17:22happens to these collectibles. Even if,
  550. 17:25and that's my message, even if we think
  551. 17:27this is going to be a thing long-term
  552. 17:29and it's going to return to those
  553. 17:29values, there always going to be
  554. 17:31downturns, right? You know, we have seen
  555. 17:33these things caused by either sort of
  556. 17:36like crazy amounts of hype or
  557. 17:39macroeconomics. And I think that like
  558. 17:41the confluence of greed
  559. 17:43uh and the hype is going to be
  560. 17:45potentially problematic for us. I think
  561. 17:46that's going to be what pushes us over
  562. 17:47the edge unless we have some type of
  563. 17:49macroeconomic issue before then. Like
  564. 17:51the intersection of hoarding and
  565. 17:53overprinting, like there will be so much
  566. 17:55available supply uh that at a certain
  567. 17:58point like the amount of demand is just
  568. 18:00going to be exceeded and that's going to
  569. 18:01cause prices to fall. That's just my
  570. 18:03opinion, but I think that's what we've
  571. 18:04seen in a lot of other things in the
  572. 18:05past. I do want to say that like after
  573. 18:08being cleared of excessive hype, we will
  574. 18:10return to fundamentals and then resume
  575. 18:12long-term growth, I think, right? As I
  576. 18:14said, I think this is here to stay
  577. 18:16because I think that this is, you know,
  578. 18:18if not a replacement for fine art, I
  579. 18:20think that this is like a partner for
  580. 18:23fine art. You know, one of the lessons
  581. 18:25from the art market is that like the
  582. 18:27people who thought that this was going
  583. 18:28to be a big thing, they were right. It
  584. 18:30just took years for the market to grow
  585. 18:34to the point of where they thought it
  586. 18:36already was. And I think that was the
  587. 18:38big mistake that they made, not that it
  588. 18:39wasn't ever going to get there, but they
  589. 18:41just
  590. 18:42thought that it was going to get there
  591. 18:43too quickly. And that's what I see
  592. 18:44happening, too. And so I wanted to
  593. 18:45include this chart, which is the global
  594. 18:47art market from 2009 to 2025, to show
  595. 18:51that post economic collapse in 2008,
  596. 18:53like the art market did recover. And
  597. 18:55while it has not been absolutely booming
  598. 18:58ever since, it has been stable, right?
  599. 19:00And so I think at a certain point like
  600. 19:02TCGs will become something that we
  601. 19:05accept uh as having value, but also
  602. 19:08there will be a new sexier thing that
  603. 19:10comes along
  604. 19:12uh that steals the hype and that's going
  605. 19:14to be okay. So, I think the most
  606. 19:16important message to take away here is
  607. 19:18like we're in an unsustainable period
  608. 19:20where everything has gone up in price
  609. 19:22and everything has done really, really
  610. 19:24well. Like markets cannot exist like
  611. 19:26that, right? Markets will correct, but
  612. 19:29it's not just that there's boom and
  613. 19:31bust, but like if we think this is real,
  614. 19:33there's also consolidation. There's also
  615. 19:36like, you know, slow growth. There's
  616. 19:38also trading sideways. These are all
  617. 19:41options for what can happen for the
  618. 19:42markets. Before we close today, I wanted
  619. 19:44to talk about a recent Straw Hat
  620. 19:46Speculator video where he talks about
  621. 19:48his concerns about the amount of hype in
  622. 19:50the market and people thinking that
  623. 19:52they're just going to be able to like
  624. 19:53waltz in and 2x their money overnight or
  625. 19:5610x their money overnight. You know,
  626. 19:57he's not the only creator that's talking
  627. 19:59about this. I've heard about it on the
  628. 20:00Card Lounge podcast too, but I think
  629. 20:02this is a really, really important point
  630. 20:04and I think I would be remiss if I
  631. 20:05didn't share how much I agree with this.
  632. 20:07Seeing how much prices have risen and
  633. 20:09more importantly hearing and comments
  634. 20:11from people saying that like, you know,
  635. 20:13I just got into this and I'm going to
  636. 20:14make five times my money by doing X
  637. 20:16thing in a month. Like that's just not
  638. 20:18realistic market behavior, right? And so
  639. 20:21I think we need to think about like why
  640. 20:22we're in this and what we hope to get
  641. 20:24out of it. You know, something that I
  642. 20:26think Straw Hat Speculator does in the
  643. 20:28video that's really, really well and I
  644. 20:30commend him for this is to be upfront
  645. 20:32that his channel is focused on investing
  646. 20:35and that the way that you approach
  647. 20:37investing
  648. 20:38is one way. My channel is focused on
  649. 20:40collecting. We have very different
  650. 20:42approaches in the content that we're
  651. 20:44trying to deliver and the messages we're
  652. 20:45trying to deliver, right? But I think
  653. 20:47sometimes people don't understand the
  654. 20:49distinction between those two things.
  655. 20:50They think they can just buy a card that
  656. 20:53they want and it's like automatically an
  657. 20:55investment. The content I deliver is
  658. 20:57tailored around collecting because if I
  659. 21:00were trying to invest in TCGs, I would
  660. 21:02engage in totally different behavior,
  661. 21:03right? So, of course I'm talking about
  662. 21:05cards I like. I'm talking about cards
  663. 21:07that I think are undervalued because as
  664. 21:08a collector, you know, I want to
  665. 21:10maximize the amount of value that I can
  666. 21:12get out of spending my money. But that
  667. 21:14doesn't mean that it's an investment and
  668. 21:15it doesn't mean that I think of it as an
  669. 21:16investment. And I think this is an
  670. 21:18important distinction, right? I hold my
  671. 21:20cards as a collector and I understand
  672. 21:22that these cards could go to zero and I
  673. 21:25have come to terms with that risk,
  674. 21:26right? All of our collecting or whatever
  675. 21:29you're doing out there needs to be
  676. 21:30aligned with whatever your risk
  677. 21:32tolerance is, right? So, if you are
  678. 21:34invested in this and you have a lot of
  679. 21:37money in it and you haven't come to
  680. 21:38terms with the fact that this is very,
  681. 21:40very high risk,
  682. 21:42that might not be the right thing for
  683. 21:43you. So,
  684. 21:45there's no right or wrong answer here,
  685. 21:46but I think the important thing is that
  686. 21:47we need to be honest with ourselves
  687. 21:49about what we're trying to accomplish
  688. 21:50and what our expectations are and make
  689. 21:52sure that it's aligned with reality,
  690. 21:54right? Things are not going to go up
  691. 21:56forever and we need to be honest with
  692. 21:57ourselves about that. So, that's all I
  693. 21:58have for today. As always, I hope you
  694. 22:00found this helpful. You know, I don't
  695. 22:02want to come across as all doom and
  696. 22:03gloom. I you know, mean what I say when
  697. 22:05I think that this is going to be with us
  698. 22:07for the long term. Um but I also want to
  699. 22:09be realistic and I care about all of you
  700. 22:11and I don't want to see any of you be
  701. 22:13burned. So, again, like as long as
  702. 22:16you're happy with your choices, like
  703. 22:17that's all I care about. That's what I'm
  704. 22:19in this for. I'm in this for the love
  705. 22:20and you know, I've come to peace with my
  706. 22:23decisions, whatever may happen and I
  707. 22:24hope that you do the same. So, with
  708. 22:26that, as always, you know, if you
  709. 22:28disagree,
  710. 22:30uh hit me up in the comments. I'm always
  711. 22:31happy to chat with y'all and I'll see
  712. 22:33you in the next one.

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