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What’s the REAL Reason Zelensky Just Dismissed Ukraine’s Defense Minister? — Transcript

by Paul Warburg · 3,766 words · 567 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00So, we've just received the news that
0:01Ukraine's defense minister, Fedorov, has
0:03been dismissed by President Zelenskyy of
0:05Ukraine. Deeply disappointing a lot of
0:07people, to say the least, myself
0:09included. And it's also caused a lot of
0:11people to be very concerned about the
0:13future of Ukraine, Ukraine's military,
0:16but also Ukraine in general. And
0:18personally speaking, I was really hoping
0:21that this wouldn't happen. Because when
0:23it comes to Fedorov, I really liked the
0:24guy and I really respected him, more
0:27than I respect most people who hold
0:28political offices. Because he actually
0:31did something that was incredibly rare.
0:34He actually got the job done and he got
0:36it done quickly. In fact, even though he
0:38was only in his role for approximately 6
0:40months, he was responsible, for example,
0:43for a lot of the daily update videos
0:45that I get to make on this channel.
0:47Because he innovated so quickly and
0:50caused Ukraine to be able to take
0:52advantage of Russian weaknesses in
0:54innovative ways that frankly the
0:56Russians found surprising. Because this
0:58was a man who didn't think like the
1:00traditional military leadership and
1:02therefore he could do things that
1:03traditional military leadership on the
1:05Russian side simply wasn't expecting.
1:08So, it's certainly a big blow to lose
1:11this man. We still don't know what the
1:12future holds, but even if we get
1:14somebody good in the office, it is sad
1:16to see somebody who's been so good at
1:18their job go by the wayside. With that
1:21being said, I do see though a
1:23conversation going on as this is just
1:24starting. Where a lot of people don't
1:27really know what to make of this. A lot
1:29of people are disappointed. But they
1:31don't really understand why what's
1:33happened has happened. And because of
1:35that, a lot of the gaps in knowledge are
1:38being filled with anger, which may be
1:40justified or it may not be justified.
1:42It's too early to really say. So, what I
1:45wanted to do in this video was, as an
1:47outsider, kind of tell both sides of the
1:49story because right now I actually don't
1:51see that being done. I only see one side
1:53of the story being told. And it doesn't
1:55mean that that side is necessarily
1:57incorrect, but how can you know it's
1:59correct if you haven't even heard the
2:00other side? And I think I'm actually
2:02uniquely equipped to do this as an
2:04outsider who lives in the United States
2:07who doesn't have a stake in the fight of
2:09the internal politics of Ukraine. I'm
2:11not emotionally invested here other than
2:13the fact that I want Ukraine to succeed
2:15and do well. The Ukrainian people will
2:17decide for themselves the best path
2:19forward for them. But as an outsider,
2:23I actually think I can get some more
2:24clarity of thought. And it's not just me
2:26saying that, I have experienced that
2:28with other outsiders speaking into, for
2:30example, the political situation within
2:33my own country. Where within my own
2:35country, the narrative is this or that
2:37when it comes to our presidential
2:38elections, but you just hear some things
2:40from people who aren't directly involved
2:42that are so insightful and help you
2:44realize that things aren't always what
2:47they appear to be on the surface.
2:50So, what I'll do in this video is I will
2:52describe the reasons why people are
2:54concerned about how Federov was released
2:57and why he was released. And why people
2:59in Ukraine in particular are worried
3:01that this could be because of
3:02corruption, and that's deeply
3:04disturbing.
3:05But I'll also describe the other side,
3:07which I personally find more compelling,
3:10though of course either side could be
3:11true. And that's the side that sees this
3:13not as inherently corrupt, but as a
3:16tough leadership decision
3:18that had to be made, at least in the
3:20mind of President Zelenskyy, even if we
3:22disagree with it. So, that he was not
3:24acting in terms of corruption, he was
3:27just making a decision that from his
3:28perspective seemed good, and that a lot
3:30of other people think was a bad
3:33decision. So, let's start this
3:34discussion by talking about why people
3:36are concerned. And indeed, there are
3:38some good data points here that would
3:39seem to support that concern, especially
3:42when viewed on the surface. Really, the
3:44underlying concern here comes from a
3:46long history of Ukrainian corruption.
3:49And people are worried that this is just
3:51another episode in that corruption. And
3:54this is really an unfortunate fact about
3:56Ukraine's history and their present. As
3:58a post-Soviet country, Ukraine's
4:01political systems have been reacting to
4:03that corruption ever since Ukraine's
4:05inception as an independent country. And
4:08Ukraine has even had oligarchs similar
4:10to the Russian oligarchs that they have
4:12been fighting against. Now, to be very
4:14fair, Ukraine has done a much better job
4:16of this than other countries like Russia
4:18or Belarus. But at the same time, that
4:21job is certainly not finished. And it
4:23would be a lie to say that there is zero
4:25corruption in Ukraine, as it would be a
4:27lie to say that there's zero corruption
4:29in probably any government. Because of
4:32Ukraine's history in particular, when it
4:34comes to their politics, whenever people
4:36see an episode that they don't agree
4:38with or that they don't understand,
4:40their first inclination is to view that
4:43as probable corruption. And nobody can
4:46really blame them for it. In fact, maybe
4:48it's the right thing to do country with
4:51a history like theirs. And certainly in
4:53the case of Federov, there are some
4:56reasons to believe that there could have
4:58been corruption involved in this. First
5:00and foremost is just Federov in general,
5:02who is this outsider, this young guy, in
5:05a system where a lot of the key players
5:08actually still date back to Soviet times
5:10and Soviet influences. Federov in
5:14particular has been trying to change
5:16policies when it comes to the military,
5:18and especially when it comes to procure-
5:20-ment that have been seen by a lot of
5:22people as upsetting the power and
5:24especially the profits of Ukraine's
5:26traditional players, giving an incentive
5:29for these players to want Federov to be
5:31removed. And indeed, Federov actually
5:34recently did an audit of the Ukrainian
5:36military, where he found something like
5:38300 billion units of Ukrainian currency
5:42were overspent, equivalent to
5:44approximately 6.6 billion US dollars,
5:49which is a big sum. And when people hear
5:51about military budgets being overspent,
5:53and then they see the guy who discovered
5:55that getting dismissed, they
5:56automatically think corruption.
5:59So, that's the reasons people are
6:00concerned and potentially valid, and
6:02people really should dive deep into this
6:04and look carefully. They don't want to
6:06just sweep it under the rug. On the
6:08other hand, though, that's not the only
6:10way to interpret what happened here,
6:12especially when it comes to this audit.
6:14There's a lot of interesting factors
6:16here that actually seem to point away
6:19from the corruption narrative. First,
6:22there's the audit itself and what it
6:24actually discovered and how it was
6:25actually used. And then there's the
6:27actual set of circumstances that led to
6:30Fedorov's dismissal, which actually
6:32seems to speak away from this idea
6:35that there was some kind of oligarch or
6:37elite power pressuring Zelenskyy to do
6:39this. So, first, let's just look at the
6:42defense audit itself. What that audit
6:44actually found was that budgets were
6:47overspent. It didn't find that funds
6:50were, for example, misappropriated in
6:52these huge sums. It didn't find that the
6:55funds were unaccounted for, which would
6:57be the case in corruption. It found that
6:59the funds were overspent, which speaks
7:02to a problem, but not the same problem
7:04that everybody's worried about.
7:06Basically here, Fedorov found potential
7:09incompetence or a lack of discipline in
7:12military spending. And that is actually
7:15somewhat understandable in an
7:16organization the size of the Ukrainian
7:18military facing the problems the
7:20Ukrainian military is facing. If you are
7:23expanding your military in a bunch of
7:25different directions trying to fight the
7:26Russians all over the place, and nobody
7:28has enough resources, people are going
7:30to overspend, especially when you just
7:32think of the individual dynamic, where
7:34you have to tell your soldiers that you
7:36can't get them the equipment they need
7:37because the budget just isn't there.
7:39There's a big incentive for people who
7:41aren't necessarily corrupt, they're just
7:43looking after their soldiers, to find
7:45ways to get that budget to be overspent
7:47beyond what they're technically allowed
7:49to spend. And this is almost certainly
7:51the vast majority of what Fedorov's
7:54audit actually found. Now, was he going
7:57to introduce discipline to try to fix
7:59that? We don't really know. We haven't
8:00seen the big response to this audit, but
8:03what we didn't see in response to this
8:04audit was Fedorov coming out with a
8:07smoking gun saying, "Look over here at
8:09these corrupt people who are stealing
8:11the government's money." And so, that's
8:13not actually how Fedorov himself used
8:15that audit, and so it would probably be
8:16inappropriate to use the audit that way
8:19to suggest that corruption was the
8:21reason that Fedorov was dismissed. I
8:24think that's a massive point in and of
8:26itself. Most things that appear to be
8:28corruption on the surface, not all, but
8:30most, when understood properly, you
8:32realize there are good explanations for
8:34these things.
8:35So, that's square one. The next thing we
8:37need to look at is the actual
8:38circumstances around Fedorov's
8:40dismissal. And it's important to say
8:42that in a lot of ways, this is just not
8:44unprecedented. Since 2022, Ukraine has
8:47had several defense ministers with short
8:50terms. And in fact, the guy leading up
8:52to Fedorov
8:54was also dismissed after a term of
8:56approximately 6 months. Now, you could
8:59argue that that in and of itself is a
9:00problem, and I might agree with you. I
9:02don't personally agree that it's a good
9:04idea to keep cycling through leadership
9:06every 6 months before you've given
9:08people a chance to succeed as a general
9:11principle. However, that doesn't mean
9:13you could never do that. It doesn't mean
9:16that that's a true fact in every single
9:17circumstance. And it also, even if it is
9:20a problem, and even if the Ukrainian
9:21people are upset about that, and they
9:23actually want to vote out Zelenskyy
9:25because of that, it's still not the same
9:27problem as corruption, which is what is
9:30being claimed by a lot of people, either
9:32explicitly or implicitly. So, it's very,
9:35very important to be precise about that.
9:38And in fact, the actual circumstances
9:40surrounding
9:42Fedorov's dismissal in particular,
9:44it just wouldn't be the circumstances
9:46that in my opinion we would expect if
9:48there was corruption pushing Zelenskyy
9:50to remove this guy. Because Fedorov was
9:53not removed individually. He was removed
9:55as a reshuffling of the entire
9:57government that started with the
9:59dismissal of the Prime Minister of
10:01Ukraine.
10:03And Ukrainian law and their
10:04constitution,
10:06when the Prime Minister is dismissed,
10:08that automatically triggers the
10:10resignations of everybody who was part
10:12of their cabinet. And then you can
10:14choose if you want to keep those people
10:16or if you want to replace them. In this
10:18case, Zelenskyy chose to replace
10:21Fedorov. We'll talk more about why he
10:23might have done that, so you can see
10:24whether or not you agree with that in
10:25just a moment. But the point here is
10:28that it wasn't just Fedorov being
10:29singled out. It was a larger government
10:32reshuffle. And at least what we're being
10:34told, probably impossible for anybody to
10:36confirm 100%, but what we're being told
10:39is the reason this Prime Minister was
10:40dismissed was because they weren't
10:43autonomous enough for Zelenskyy. They
10:45kept going to Zelenskyy for everything
10:48and asking him permission and his
10:50opinion instead of just making
10:51decisions. And Zelenskyy found that to
10:54not be helpful. He needed somebody who
10:56could make their own decisions without
10:58him babysitting them. And in that case,
11:00if indeed true, which seems more likely
11:02than not, this argues against something
11:04that we've also heard, which is that
11:06Zelenskyy is just getting rid of
11:07everybody to replace them with loyalists
11:09who will do what he says. Because he
11:11already had in place a Prime Minister
11:13who was going to do everything he said,
11:15who was paranoid and always asking him
11:16for permission about everything. And in
11:18fact, that's why they got dismissed. So,
11:20the idea that you would get rid of
11:22somebody like that to put in somebody
11:24who's going to be more willing to do
11:25your will and your bidding, like a
11:27dictator, like, you know, Putin in
11:30Russia does, it actually just doesn't
11:33make a lot of sense. So, with all that
11:35in mind, we see that while the dismissal
11:37of Fedorov was deeply disappointing to a
11:39lot of people, including myself, it also
11:42wasn't unprecedented by any means. In
11:45fact, when we compare Fedorov's term,
11:46the day he started and the day he ended
11:48to his predecessor, it's like remarkably
11:51uncanny. These guys almost served the
11:53exact same term, practically to the day.
11:58The reason a lot of people are noticing
11:59this time is because they really liked
12:02Fedorov. He really did a good job, and
12:04so a lot of people really don't want to
12:06see him go. They actually can't
12:08understand why Zelenskyy would have
12:09dismissed him, and that is actually why
12:11we see the corruption narrative
12:13spreading so quickly. People are upset
12:15and they want to know why, and they're
12:17reaching for the narratives that are
12:18being offered to them. And it's not
12:20actually their fault that so many people
12:22are falling into the corruption
12:24narrative, because that is really the
12:26only narrative that's being presented to
12:28them by the news apparatus that they
12:30trust. It's actually the fault of the
12:31media for not telling both sides of the
12:34story. And perhaps if there is
12:36corruption involved here, the corruption
12:38is in the media which wants a certain
12:40outcome, and they are exploiting this
12:42particular crisis to try to drive
12:44towards that particular outcome instead
12:46of being faithful to the story as a
12:48whole. That's part of the reason I
12:49created this video. That does though
12:51still leave an unanswered question. Why
12:54would Zelenskyy replace Fedorov when he
12:57was doing such an excellent job? And it
12:59turns out that there have been some
13:01reasons offered, but they're only being
13:03reported between the lines and they're a
13:04little bit harder to find. But, there
13:06are some stated reasons, and those
13:08stated reasons are coherent.
13:10The main reason that we're seeing here
13:13is that Fedorov had a deep disagreement
13:16with the commander-in-chief of Ukraine's
13:18military, Syrskyi. I don't know
13:20precisely the nature of that
13:22disagreement. There's some that say the
13:24dis- disagreement was about Fedorov
13:26thinking that Ukraine should be more
13:27willing to give up territory, whereas
13:30Syrsky wants soldiers to hold the line
13:32at higher costs. This is not corruption.
13:35This is a difference in leadership
13:37philosophy that can cause some problems
13:40if the disagreement continues to exist.
13:43Now, it could be manageable in and of
13:45itself it might have not been a reason
13:46to dismiss Fedorov, but when his
13:49resignation was already triggered by the
13:51dismissal of the Prime Minister and
13:52moving them into a different position,
13:54it's the right time to make a change if
13:56indeed a change did need to be made.
13:59This we see is President Zelensky making
14:03a presidential decision and that doesn't
14:06mean he got it right. He could have got
14:08it right or he could have got it wrong,
14:09but as the president of his country, I
14:11promise you he is operating on more data
14:14than the average Joe Schmo like me or
14:16you who's looking on. And this is a
14:18legitimately complicated decision that a
14:21lot of people can't appreciate if
14:23they've never actually been a people
14:25manager and they've never had to make a
14:27tough decision where they're trapped in
14:29a dilemma where whatever they do, it's
14:31going to be a bad decision and it's
14:33going to result in consequences that are
14:35undesirable. In this case though, if
14:38Zelensky really felt for whatever reason
14:40he was in a position where he had to
14:42choose between either keeping Fedorov as
14:44the Defense Minister or Syrsky as the
14:46Commander-in-Chief, you can see a lot of
14:48reasons why he would choose to keep
14:50Syrsky. Now, Syrsky has been a kind of a
14:52controversial figure among some of the
14:54Ukrainian military because he's a
14:57hard-charging leader, but at the same
14:59time we hear that about very many
15:01successful military commanders because
15:03unfortunately, it's kind of the nature
15:04of the job. Syrsky though, compared to
15:07Fedorov, he's got a lot more military
15:09experience. He's been around a lot
15:10longer and he is the person that the
15:13Ukrainian military looks to directly for
15:16leadership. So, if you have to choose
15:18between him and Fedorov, Syrsky's
15:20probably the one to keep unless you have
15:22other severe problems with Syrsky. And
15:25even if you don't agree with that
15:26decision and how it landed, you can
15:28still see why it's more complicated than
15:30just Syrsky bad Fedorov good or Fedorov
15:33bad Syrsky good. You get the picture
15:36here.
15:37As far as Fedorov's success on the
15:38battlefield, this is probably also being
15:40factored in.
15:42And it makes the decision legitimately
15:43complicated. But I could see a world
15:46where in Zelenskyy's perspective,
15:47Fedorov has done a lot of incredibly
15:49good things and instituted a lot of
15:51reforms. But that doesn't mean that
15:54going forward, he's the best guy for the
15:56position for the long term. A lot of
15:59times in governments and in companies in
16:00general, what you need is somebody to
16:02come in and make some changes really
16:04quickly. But once they make those
16:06changes quickly, they are not as useful
16:09as they were when they first came into
16:10the position. And that could very well
16:12be the calculus that Zelenskyy's
16:14thinking through. Fedorov made a lot of
16:16good reforms. He's got the military
16:18going on a good path. Maybe that path,
16:21since the military is already going down
16:23that path, would be better trodden
16:25further from here by somebody else who
16:27isn't going to upset the rest of the
16:29system so much. I'm just explaining the
16:32decision logic. I'm not saying you have
16:33to agree with it. But I am explaining
16:36why there is a logic to it that a lot of
16:39people from the outside looking in don't
16:41appreciate. A lot of the critics, again,
16:43they've never had to make a decision
16:45like this where it's a dilemma and it's,
16:47you know, bad result whatever way you
16:50go. It's just maybe a less bad result. A
16:52lot of people have never had to make a
16:53decision about hiring or firing somebody
16:55in the first place. And so you should at
16:57least sit down and consider and think
16:59through these things before being overly
17:01frustrated at Zelenskyy, for example, in
17:04this instance. Could Zelenskyy still be
17:06wrong? Of course.
17:08Could people still arrive
17:10at that conclusion after thinking it
17:11through? Of course. And in fact, if they
17:13do that, then they'll be even more
17:15empowered to be more frustrated with
17:17Zelensky for the right reasons and
17:20they'll know what they're looking for in
17:22their next leader
17:23rather than just reacting to a news
17:26headline for example. So, I hope this
17:28has been helpful. Again, I'm an outsider
17:30looking in. I don't get a vote in what
17:32happens from here in Ukraine. That's up
17:34to the Ukrainian people. So, I hope my
17:36outside perspective has helped you think
17:38through the issue and if you land on a
17:40different side than you did at the
17:41beginning, that's great. If you still
17:43land where you did at the beginning,
17:45that's great, too. I just want to make
17:47sure that the full story is being
17:49covered accurately so that people can
17:51think through all of the information.
17:53The reason I'm so passionate about this
17:55is because I've seen the deadly effects
17:58of how Russia uses situations like this
18:00in my own country. They have used claims
18:03about Ukrainian corruption that have
18:05been sometimes true but most often over
18:07played to influence my country to stop
18:10giving aid to Ukraine and they've been
18:12incredibly effective and it's also
18:14effective in a lot of European
18:16countries, too. And right now we see a
18:18lot of countries making these decisions
18:19about whether or not to support Ukraine.
18:22And so, of course, Russia is going to
18:23jump into this particular narrative and
18:25they're going to try to exaggerate it
18:27all the way to one side and make it look
18:29as bad as possible when genuinely I
18:32think it's a lot more complicated than
18:33that. This is a call as always to do the
18:36hard work of the critical thinking. It's
18:38very rare. Most people don't do that.
18:41But, if you do it, we'll arrive in
18:42better places overall and also as
18:45individuals we can be less frustrated
18:46overall because it's actually a lot more
18:49rare for there to be
18:50a decision that's made out of
18:52incompetence. Rather, it's most often
18:55that there are decisions that are made
18:57because of complicated factors and we
18:59don't always understand all of those
19:01factors. But, it does require some faith
19:04in our leaders while they are our
19:06leaders. And right now, President
19:08Zelenskyy is the leader of Ukraine and I
19:10think the best decision possible for
19:13Ukraine, even if they want to get rid of
19:14him, show him the boot as soon as this
19:16war is over, is to show him as much
19:18support and as much benefit of the doubt
19:20as they can muster until this thing is
19:22over. Because often the benefit of the
19:24doubt actually leads us to a conclusion
19:27that is more precise and more accurate,
19:29even if we still end up not liking the
19:31guy. At least we can be more precise and
19:33more accurate, and we can be responding
19:35to truth rather than exaggerated context
19:39or things that are taken out of context.
19:42That in mind, I hope you enjoyed the
19:43video. This was a little bit of a
19:45special episode in addition to my normal
19:47posting. Thought it was important I
19:49commented on this particular topic. So,
19:52if you watched this far, as always, be
19:54sure to like the video and subscribe to
19:56the channel. And also consider
19:57supporting my work by becoming a YouTube
20:00channel member or a patron. Thank you
20:02guys for all your support. I literally
20:05couldn't do it without you. And I'll see
20:07you on the next one.

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