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What is the future of the car? — Transcript

by Bart's Car Stories · 3,275 words · 504 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00The topic of this video is really pretty
0:02simple. We're looking at the potential
0:04future of the car itself, the market,
0:06the industry, and more generally, the
0:08world of transportation. I think it's
0:11easy to assume that things will
0:12generally stay the way it is, but
0:14history tells us otherwise. From the
0:16reluctant transition from the horse and
0:18carriage to combustion-powered vehicles
0:21to the expansive highway systems of the
0:241950s to potential autonomous vehicle
0:27systems today, what will navigation look
0:29like for my kids and their kids and
0:31their grandkids? Now, I'm going to be
0:33honest with you, making these
0:35story-driven kind of linear narrative
0:38videos is very daunting sometimes. So,
0:41this video is going to be just a bit
0:42different. Instead of laying out my
0:44theory on the most plausible outcome for
0:46cars, I want to look at three of the
0:48most likely scenarios, or at least the
0:50most discussed possibilities, and
0:52explore what it would take for them to
0:54become a reality, and you can draw from
0:56all of this what you will.
1:00>> [music]
1:00>> The first and most likely scenario is
1:03not that cars necessarily die
1:05altogether, but rather just that their
1:06form as we know them shifts. There's no
1:09discussing the immediate future of cars
1:11without taking a look at alternative
1:13power sources, [music]
1:14specifically electric cars, but also
1:16alternative fuels or e-fuels.
1:18Hydrogen-power is probably the most
1:20promising of those alternative fuels,
1:23and for you enthusiasts, it's also the
1:25most exciting. If you wish for the
1:27automobile to stick around in similar
1:29form to what it is today, this is for
1:31you, cuz it goes vroom vroom, guys.
1:36>> [music]
1:39>> E-fuels are interesting not only for
1:41transportation, but also because
1:43hydrogen is like the most abundant
1:46element in the entire universe. On top
1:48of this, cars that make sound and
1:50vibrate and do all the old-school car
1:52stuff, they're fun, okay? They're fun,
1:54and there's nothing wrong with them
1:55being fun. Now, on the electric front,
1:57some experts predict that EVs will
1:59become over half or maybe even 75% of
2:03all new cars produced, maybe even within
2:05the next decade. That is a bit extreme,
2:07but I could see this certainly becoming
2:09a reality within the next 40 years or
2:12so. It's not unreasonable to predict
2:14that EVs will become the norm at some
2:17point in my lifetime. This trend is
2:19evident in most manufacturers slowly
2:21shifting their entire lineups to EVs.
2:24Though, I will say we also do see some
2:26reversals. Uh for example, the F-150
2:28Lightning. You know, the Lightning in
2:30its current fully EV form is going out
2:32of production, and the plan is to shift
2:34to Ford's UEV platform, which is pretty
2:37interesting, but that's another story.
2:39Where EVs shine is in their efficiency,
2:42and also in the simple fact that we
2:43already have much of the infrastructure
2:46for electric-powered cars, namely the
2:49electric grid. Though, at the same time,
2:51widespread fast charging is still in the
2:53process of being built. Also, there just
2:55simply have been massive advancements in
2:58BEV or battery electric vehicles over
3:01the past few decades. A good bet, if
3:03you're one of those people who bets on
3:04stupid things like political races or,
3:07you know, the future of society, EVs EVs
3:10are a good bet. But, a few manufacturers
3:12are choosing to actually invest just as
3:14much or more in hydrogen power. And
3:17there are some reasons to actually
3:18prefer hydrogen over electric beyond it
3:21just going bang pop. Hydrogen power
3:24plants come in different forms. You've
3:26got traditional internal combustion
3:27engines, but you also have turbine and
3:30hydrogen fuel cells. Hydrogen is great
3:32mainly because, as I said, it's so
3:34abundant. Though, it's true that getting
3:36that hydrogen into a sort of available
3:39usable form, that's what's really
3:41difficult. Similar to lithium mining for
3:44EVs, getting that hydrogen is a process
3:47that is still entirely fossil fuel
3:49based. Also, hydrogen systems can be
3:51dangerous, and really the biggest
3:53current hurdle is cost. But some studies
3:56suggest that with ongoing development,
3:58the price to produce hydrogen systems
4:00for cars could drop anywhere between 50
4:02to 85% which would make hydrogen setups
4:06really just as affordable to make as
4:08electric setups. Toyota is one company
4:10that has chosen to focus on hydrogen
4:12power instead of just EVs. One of the
4:15main benefits that they see is rapid
4:17refueling similar to gas-powered cars.
4:20You know, it simply is still just a huge
4:22hurdle that EVs take so long to recharge
4:25even supercharging. And also large
4:28commercial applications could be much
4:30better suited to hydrogen sources.
4:32Batteries have to be so dang large and
4:34heavy. Also on the fun side of things,
4:36Toyota has built some very interesting
4:39hydrogen-powered prototype vehicles.
4:41You've got high-performance motorsport
4:43with the GR H2 racing concept which has
4:45been designed specifically for future Le
4:48Mans hydrogen class competition using a
4:51hybrid liquid hydrogen powertrain. Now,
4:54this thing is really cool. Sadly, all we
4:56know about this is the size of it. We
4:57don't have any performance specs, but I
4:59do look forward to seeing just how fast
5:01this thing is. And I wouldn't care one
5:03bit if it was a little slower than, you
5:05know, a gas-powered supercar. Who cares?
5:07I think taking a step back in
5:09performance wouldn't be bad at all for
5:11the industry. So, if you told me this
5:12thing made like 300 horsepower, great.
5:15And we can figure out how to get to four
5:16and 500 in, you know, 50 years, but
5:19let's let's move back to like two, 300
5:21horsepower sports cars. Then there are
5:22some track-focused prototypes, the GR
5:25Corolla H2, the GR Yaris H2. They've
5:28even expanded into more utilitarian
5:31applications like the Hilux FCEV
5:33prototype just to see if this kind of
5:35thing can work with more heavy-duty
5:37hauling and also off-road range. Then
5:40there's also the AE86 H2 concept. And I
5:43think this is really where enthusiasts
5:44can find hope in keeping fun driving
5:47dynamics available alongside true zero
5:50carbon emission vehicles. With all this
5:52in mind, here is what I would say a
5:55solid prediction. One, traditional
5:57gas-powered combustion engines will
5:59continue to see a decline for
6:01traditional cars and be relegated to
6:04more limited roles for specific
6:06applications. Two, hydrogen systems
6:08replace some of those applications. You
6:11know, hopefully more niche vehicles like
6:12sports cars continue to get investment,
6:15but maybe heavy-duty applications where
6:17fast refueling and weight and range
6:20really matter. And then there's no
6:21avoiding it. Battery-powered and also
6:23hybrid systems are going to take over
6:25the mass-produced car as we know it.
6:27Now, for some of you, that reality in
6:29and of itself is the death of the
6:31automobile. Sorry, but you know,
6:33something like this scenario is the most
6:35likely outcome based on the available
6:37data we have and where the industry is
6:39heading. As much as enthusiasts make a
6:41big deal about how cars are powered,
6:43this question of the future of the
6:45automobile goes way beyond that. We have
6:47to talk about autonomous technology
6:49because there is so much investment in
6:52this area right now. And the future of
6:54this part of mass transportation is
6:56really unknown. Saying cars will mostly
6:59be electric in the coming decades isn't
7:01really controversial. You regular
7:02viewers know from my videos that I'm not
7:05a huge fan of EVs, but even I can't deny
7:07that this is where the industry is
7:09heading. But self-driving cars, I think,
7:11is another story altogether. A few very
7:13interesting articles have been published
7:15in the past year or so specifically
7:17covering this topic, and I think that
7:19they're worth looking at. So, last year
7:21Mark Buchanan argued in his Nature
7:23article that even with recent
7:25advancements in AI technology, this idea
7:27of widespread full self-driving, of that
7:30being available within a decade, is
7:32basically just ridiculous. The idea that
7:35that's coming in the next few years is
7:36completely ridiculous, and most experts
7:39expect this kind of advancement to take
7:41place more like 50-plus years from now.
7:44Also, McKinsey has a recent overview of
7:46this segment of the auto industry that's
7:48really fascinating. Based on their third
7:51bi-annual survey of industry leaders, it
7:53lays out a very different reality than
7:55the one that car manufacturers are
7:57consistently trying to sell us about
7:59autonomous vehicles. First, the timeline
8:01just keeps getting pushed back for
8:03pretty much all forms of autonomous
8:05vehicles from the widespread adoption of
8:07L4 or fully autonomous vehicles like
8:10robo-taxi. Now, it's worth noting L4
8:13versus L5, those are two different
8:15things. So, L5 is is something that
8:18doesn't exist. It's basically science
8:20fiction. You know, it's it's the idea of
8:22a car just being completely autonomous
8:24everywhere. What's funny though, I
8:26think, is that Elon has always kind of
8:28made the public feel like this was not
8:30only possible, but like it's right
8:32around the corner. And of course, we're
8:34absolutely nowhere near having such a
8:36technology. The other important thing
8:38that McKinsey points out for mass market
8:41cars, you know, like the cars you and I
8:43own and drive, the main focus is
8:45actually going to be on L2-plus
8:47self-driving versus even L3. Well, what
8:50does that mean? L2-plus is pretty much
8:52it's just advanced driver assistance.
8:54You know, you're still completely
8:55legally liable for whatever happens with
8:57the car. So, you've got things like
8:59hands-free driving in specific
9:01scenarios. The system can manage speed,
9:03distance, lane centering, automatic lane
9:05changes, but you as the driver have to
9:08keep your eyes on the road. And you
9:09know, this is already pretty widespread.
9:11GM's Super Cruise, Ford's Blue Cruise,
9:13and the now updated name for Tesla,
9:15which is full self-driving supervised.
9:18Can somebody get these class action
9:19lawsuits moving for Tesla for literally
9:22pumping their stock by calling it full
9:24self-driving for the past 10-plus years?
9:26It's level two. It's just level two. Not
9:28something that should at all be
9:29described as full self-driving. I think
9:31the main takeaway from the industry
9:33right now is that full-on science
9:35fiction style fully integrated
9:38self-driving networks where all the cars
9:40are out on the road, all connected and
9:41communicating constantly, and
9:43everything's all mapped out. You can
9:45just jump in your self-driving car in, I
9:47don't know, Decorah, Iowa, and it'll
9:49just do everything for you and keep you
9:51safe. That's not going to happen anytime
9:53soon. And I think this final section
9:55will get at the much more feasible and
9:57reasonable and already proven solution
9:59to the problem, especially that our
10:00country faces in terms of
10:02transportation, because we do face a
10:04transportation crisis in this country.
10:06But rest assured, even with some limited
10:08versions of full self-driving taxis in
10:11certain regions, cars are not going to
10:13be all just driving themselves
10:14everywhere, probably even in my
10:16lifetime. There is actually a third,
10:18more extreme, drastic potential, and
10:21that is doing away with vehicles
10:22altogether. Now, let me just explain why
10:25I don't really think this is going to
10:26happen anytime soon, but how it
10:28certainly could become a reality, at
10:30least for major portions of the world
10:32and for our country, and in some ways
10:34already is. Are you guys familiar with
10:36the philosophy and ideas behind
10:38urbanism? You know, I've always known of
10:40urbanism as just kind of the movement of
10:42people towards cities. Basically, more
10:44concentrated portions of people in
10:47specific places, versus the sprawl of
10:49suburbs and especially ruralism. But
10:51until recently, I hadn't really learned
10:53about urbanism as a way of thinking, as
10:56a kind of philosophy. And there are a
10:57few great urbanist YouTube channels.
11:00City Nerd is one that I've watched quite
11:01a bit. Urbanists are people who value,
11:04well, they value life without a car.
11:06There's more to it than just that, but
11:07that is a huge tenet. They want
11:09seamless, affordable transit. They want
11:12passenger trains and buses. And in many
11:14ways, what they appreciate more than
11:16anything is cities that are walkable and
11:18bikeable. If you want to see a bikeable
11:20city, look no further than Amsterdam.
11:22This is Amsterdam's version of morning
11:25rush hour, which is just a ton of people
11:27biking pretty far to work. There's
11:29actually more bicycles in Amsterdam than
11:32humans. Unlike Amsterdam and many
11:34European cities, American cities are
11:36notoriously unwalkable and unbikeable
11:39and dependent on vehicles. There are
11:41exceptions and it's certainly getting
11:43better for urbanists in certain cities.
11:45You know, New York City is kind of the
11:47gold standard for urbanists in these
11:49terms. It's why people pay ridiculous
11:51amounts to live there without a car. New
11:53York City is incredibly interconnected
11:55and you can get everything you need
11:57without having a car in much of the
11:59city. But there are places like
12:01Charlotte, North Carolina for example,
12:03where the opposite is happening. You
12:04know, the average person living in the
12:06city drives like 36 miles per day. Now,
12:09I could talk at length about urbanism
12:11and the problems with suburbia. Guess
12:13what? I actually have in many of my
12:15videos. In fact, a lot of what I've
12:16talked about urbanists would agree with.
12:18I've talked about the problems with the
12:20way American cities and American
12:21vehicles are formed. I've talked about
12:23pedestrian safety and how it's terrible
12:25in our cities compared to other places.
12:27By the way, pedestrian deaths in the US
12:29they're not going down. They're actually
12:31going up. Between 2013 and 2022,
12:34pedestrian deaths went up 50% in our
12:37country while other countries see
12:39declines. American pedestrian fatalities
12:41are roughly double what most countries
12:43in Europe have. Even just traffic deaths
12:46in general in our country, like take for
12:48example Toronto, which is in Canada if
12:50you didn't know already, 1.5 traffic
12:53deaths per 100,000 people. Then you look
12:55at a city like Miami, 13 traffic deaths
12:58per 100,000 people. Like nine times the
13:01amount. Sentiment towards driving is
13:04changing for younger people in our
13:05country. Gen Z for example isn't that
13:07interested in cars. It's not that
13:09they're anti-car and many of them do
13:11drive, but many of them are urbanists
13:13and are more receptive to walkability
13:15and to transit and micro-mobility and
13:17even shared transportation. And with
13:19skyrocketing gas prices and car-related
13:22costs in general and as many American
13:24cities spend billions racing to make
13:27their cities more appealing by being
13:28more accessible for biking and walking,
13:31it's not a stretch to say that car use
13:33is going to decline over the next few
13:36decades. I mean, it's a huge financial
13:38burden. The average car payment in our
13:39country is $762
13:42for a new car, over 500 even for a used
13:45car, which by the way, the new car
13:46becomes a used car once you drive it off
13:48the lot. I don't know if you guys knew
13:49that. Urbanists pretty much free up a
13:51small mortgage in their finances by just
13:53not owning a car and not having to deal
13:56with a car and insurance and repairs.
13:58Listen, I don't necessarily consider
14:00myself an urbanist, at least not in the
14:02sense that I personally need to move my
14:04family to live in some very densely
14:07populated area with tons and tons of
14:09amenities. I'm also not all that
14:11anti-car, which I don't think all
14:13urbanists are. Though I am anti-traffic,
14:16and I am also against ugly loud highways
14:18going straight through downtowns of
14:20cities or along city waterfronts,
14:22exposing those living in the area to
14:25straight-up disease-causing fumes. But,
14:27I do appreciate urbanist ideals. And
14:29personally, as a small-town kind of guy,
14:31I also want to live somewhere that's
14:33walkable and bikeable and free from the
14:35epidemic of giant SUVs being driven by
14:37single people. I also don't even think
14:39there's anything wrong with specific
14:41parts of cities being car-free. You
14:43know, do you feel like cars should be
14:45allowed at Disneyland? Who cares if a
14:46small portion of a city doesn't allow
14:48cars? It's nice. Urbanism is often
14:50portrayed as anti-car, and maybe some
14:53are. I'm sure some are. I don't really
14:54view it that way. To me, if you love
14:56driving, the current car-dependent
14:58American infrastructure is actually
15:00working against you. If more people
15:03chose to not drive 6,000-lb suburban
15:06commuter pods with driver staring at
15:08their phones, you would actually get to
15:10enjoy the road more. It would be more
15:12fun. Every person riding a commuter
15:14train or light rail to work is one less
15:17distracted driver sitting in a three-row
15:19SUV blocking your line of sight. For
15:22people who view driving as soul-crushing
15:25as this chore, I think there should be
15:27great alternatives. You know, when
15:28transit is good, the only people left
15:30out on the road are those who actually
15:32want to be there. Denser, smart land use
15:34stops the endless suburban sprawl, and
15:37the suburban sprawl is the thing that
15:39turns, you know, nice, available, twisty
15:41back roads into ugly, unusable strip
15:43malls. I don't know, that's how I view
15:45it. I started this video asking what the
15:47future of the automobile looks like, and
15:49I think maybe the wrong question is
15:51whether or not cars are going to
15:53survive, because I don't think cars are
15:55going anywhere. There will probably
15:56still be people in 2050 who absolutely
15:59love cars. There are going to be people
16:01who buy sports cars, people who go on
16:02road trips, people who modify and work
16:05on their cars. There's going to be
16:06classic car fans. There's going to be
16:08drivers who complain about electric
16:09cars, and there's probably going to be
16:10people who insist that their old Gen 7
16:14or whatever Miata is more fun than
16:16anything produced in the previous 20
16:18years. Does that math add up? know if it
16:20does. But, will the automobile be at the
16:22center of transportation the way that it
16:24is now? That's a different question. The
16:26car that we've built over the last 100
16:28years is actually a pretty specific
16:30thing. It's gas-powered, it's operated
16:32by a human, it's privately owned, and
16:34it's designed around the assumption that
16:36everybody needs one to get everywhere,
16:38at least, you know, in our country. And,
16:40you know, at this point, almost
16:41everything that I just said is being
16:43challenged. The engine can now become a
16:45battery or a fuel cell or something else
16:47entirely. The person behind the wheel is
16:50becoming increasingly unnecessary. And
16:52in places where walking and biking and
16:54public transportation actually work, the
16:56idea that every adult needs a two-ton
16:59machine just to participate in everyday
17:01life is silly. But, none of these
17:03changes necessarily mean that cars are
17:05going to disappear, because cars will
17:07still make sense for a large portion of
17:09at least our country, and cars are cool,
17:11so people are going to still love them.
17:13You know, the horse didn't disappear
17:14entirely when the car came along. The
17:17horse, for example, stayed a
17:18recreational thing. Also, it didn't lose
17:20its place as the main form of
17:22transportation just because cars were
17:24faster or more powerful. It's because
17:26the entire system around the horse
17:28disappeared and we built a system around
17:30the car. We built paved roads and gas
17:33stations and suburbs and highways and
17:35parking lots, factories, dealerships,
17:37and entire cities built around the
17:39automobile. And it does seem like
17:41there's a shift away from that, at least
17:43somewhat. We'll see what the future
17:44holds for the automobile. I think even
17:47by the end of my lifetime, things are
17:48going to look quite different, but I
17:50would love to hear from you guys. Let us
17:51know in the comments below what you
17:52think and we'll see in the next one.
17:54Drive safe.

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