What is the future of modern warfare? | BBC News — Transcript

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1. 0:01This is about harnessing cutting-edge
2. 0:03technology on every front.
3. 0:06>> We're not keeping up with our allies.
4. 0:08We're [music] not certainly not keeping
5. 0:09up um with our enemies.
6. 0:12>> Well, if we can't spend all that money
7. 0:14and build ships quickly, then we're
8. 0:15going to lean into uncrewed
9. 0:18capabilities.
10. 0:18>> The conflict in Ukraine completely
11. 0:21upended the way of war.
12. 0:23>> The threat is so severe, [music]
13. 0:25we need to spend much more. The question
14. 0:27is where the money is going to come
15. 0:29from.
16. 0:34>> We're going to focus on what warfare
17. 0:36will look like over the coming decades,
18. 0:38how much it will cost, and which
19. 0:40countries pose and face the greatest
20. 0:42threats. Well, across the world,
21. 0:44countries are announcing plans to
22. 0:46radically overhaul their military
23. 0:48strategies and integrate technologies,
24. 0:50which are changing the face of the
25. 0:52battlefield. Well, among them is the UK.
26. 0:54Here's the Prime Minister Keir Starmer
27. 0:56on harnessing the latest technology.
28. 0:59>> We'll build a new hybrid [music] Royal
29. 1:00Navy, uncrewed ships above and below the
30. 1:04surface, [music] Typhoons flying with
31. 1:06autonomous wingmen,
32. 1:08making them invisible to enemy
33. 1:09detection, a new fleet of surveillance
34. 1:11drones collecting [music] intelligence
35. 1:13and finding targets,
36. 1:15and a surge in low-cost one-way attack
37. 1:17drones.
38. 1:18This is about harnessing cutting-edge
39. 1:20technology on every front.
40. 1:23>> The Security Brief's Mikey Kay is with
41. 1:25us. Mikey, what do you think warfare is
42. 1:27going to look like, say, in 20 years'
43. 1:30time?
44. 1:30>> Well, Matthew, in order to get an idea
45. 1:32of what the future's going to look like,
46. 1:33let's rewind a little bit. Post-World
47. 1:35War II, we saw conventional warfare
48. 1:37basically lasting for around five
49. 1:39decades, and we're talking about
50. 1:40state-on-state actors. We're talking
51. 1:42about tanks, warships, and fighter jets.
52. 1:44And then as we come post-2001,
53. 1:47uh Iraq and Afghanistan, asymmetry
54. 1:49became the buzzword, asymmetric warfare.
55. 1:51So, state actor versus non-state,
56. 1:54non-state using unconventional methods
57. 1:56like improvised explosive devices. And
58. 1:59then, if you just heard the Prime
59. 2:00Minister then talking about that
60. 2:01buzzword hybrid warfare, in 2014 we saw
61. 2:05Putin basically do a land grab on
62. 2:07Crimea. And what hybrid warfare is
63. 2:09basically using existing conventional
64. 2:11military apparatus with non-military
65. 2:15capabilities such as proxies,
66. 2:17disinformation being a huge one,
67. 2:20and also cyber. So, if you look at the
68. 2:22way that drone technology is advancing
69. 2:24in Ukraine at the moment, it's outdated
70. 2:26every 2 weeks. So, you're getting kind
71. 2:27of this hockey stick of evolution of
72. 2:29capability. So, for me, 20 years time
73. 2:32it's going to be autonomous, it's going
74. 2:33to be uncrewed, and I think that will be
75. 2:35dominating military expenditure.
76. 2:37>> So, what are the new bits of military
77. 2:39hardware that have actually caught your
78. 2:42eye?
79. 2:42>> So, I think for me it's the speed of
80. 2:45innovation that's caught my eye. So, I'm
81. 2:46not talking about fifth generation
82. 2:49generation fighters like the F-22. I'm
83. 2:51not talking about aircraft carriers. I'm
84. 2:52not talking about type 45s. What I'm
85. 2:55talking about is the low-cost,
86. 2:57mass-produced,
87. 2:59but state-of-the-art drone systems such
88. 3:01as the Hornet interceptors interceptor
89. 3:03that Ukrainians are using at the moment.
90. 3:05They're about $1,000 per unit. They're
91. 3:08mass-produced. They're incredibly
92. 3:10accurate, incredibly efficient. And the
93. 3:12speed of innovation of that is
94. 3:13phenomenal in terms of addressing the
95. 3:15evolution of threat that's coming from
96. 3:17Russia.
97. 3:18>> And taking a look around the world,
98. 3:20where do you see the greatest threats
99. 3:23coming from?
100. 3:24>> I think
101. 3:25it's got to be the eastern flank of of
102. 3:27Europe at the moment. What we're seeing
103. 3:29with
104. 3:30Putin, he's putting 6,500
105. 3:33one-way attack drones into Europe at the
106. 3:35moment, which is significant. And when
107. 3:37you look at the proximity of Finland,
108. 3:40Sweden, Norway, the Baltic states,
109. 3:43and then combine that with Europe's
110. 3:46current inability to be able to absorb
111. 3:48that 6,500 one-way attack drone threat,
112. 3:51I think that for me is the biggest
113. 3:53threat. And those numbers from Putin in
114. 3:54terms of the 6,500 per month, they're
115. 3:57just going up.
116. 3:58>> Let's just pick up on what Mike has been
117. 4:00saying because European countries are
118. 4:01under intense pressure to spend more on
119. 4:04defense. Several factors are at play.
120. 4:07One is the Russia full-scale invasion of
121. 4:09Ukraine back in 2022. Another is the
122. 4:12dwindling promise of protection from the
123. 4:14United States. So, how does the UK
124. 4:17compare on defense spending? On that
125. 4:19here is Ben Chu from BBC Verify.
126. 4:22>> Here's NATO qualifying defense spending
127. 4:24in a range of different countries as a
128. 4:26share of their overall economies,
129. 4:28showing how it's changed between 2014
130. 4:30and 2024.
131. 4:32As you can see, the UK has been
132. 4:34relatively flat over that time, though
133. 4:36slightly rising from 2.1% of GDP to
134. 4:392.3%. US defense spending actually
135. 4:42declined from 3.7%
136. 4:44to 3.2% while Poland has significantly
137. 4:48increased its spending as a proportion
138. 4:50of GDP since the Russian invasion of
139. 4:53Ukraine in 2022, actually overtaking the
140. 4:56US. There's also been a sharp increase
141. 4:58in German defense spending over that
142. 5:01time relative to the size of its
143. 5:02economy, although they started out
144. 5:04spending much less than the US, the UK,
145. 5:07and France.
146. 5:08>> Well, the UK's spending on defense as a
147. 5:10percentage of GDP is set to rise, but
148. 5:13some analysts think the increase won't
149. 5:15be enough to keep the country safe.
150. 5:17General Sir Richard Barrons is a former
151. 5:19commander of Joint Forces Command. He
152. 5:21thinks the plans need to go further.
153. 5:24>> If you look at most of our European
154. 5:26allies in NATO, [music] they
155. 5:28they they have smelt the fear. They're
156. 5:30spending more money much faster on
157. 5:33revitalizing and beginning to transform
158. 5:35[music]
159. 5:36their armed forces, and they're looking
160. 5:38at the UK who were once an exemplar of a
161. 5:41European nation [music]
162. 5:43in NATO. And and we're now about halfway
163. 5:46down the spending table in NATO. We're
164. 5:49not keeping up with our allies. We're
165. 5:51not certainly not keeping up with our
166. 5:53enemies. And we know that [music] the US
167. 5:54is no longer going to come and save
168. 5:57European security in the face of a
169. 5:59Russian [music] threat.
170. 6:00>> So back to Mikey K. And Mikey, how much
171. 6:02money would be enough to counter those
172. 6:05contemporary threats?
173. 6:07>> Uh Matthew, I don't think it's ever
174. 6:08going to be enough in terms of what the
175. 6:10threat and what the MOD likes. We know
176. 6:12that from the 28 billion funding gap
177. 6:15that was outlined by the MOD when they
178. 6:17were writing the DIP. Now anyone that
179. 6:19has listened to any of the questions
180. 6:22going towards the defense secretary in
181. 6:24the House of Commons today, it's all
182. 6:25about how much, what is the percentage
183. 6:28of GDP. I don't think Matthew you can
184. 6:30have that conversation without
185. 6:32addressing what I'm calling procurement
186. 6:35reform. Procurement has legacy long
187. 6:38timelines. It's supremely expensive. And
188. 6:40as soon as you order a certain
189. 6:42capability, it's really hard to adjust
190. 6:44it and keep up with advanced technology.
191. 6:46So I think for me, you know, as I said
192. 6:49earlier on, Ukraine technology, drone
193. 6:51technology has been outdated every 2
194. 6:53weeks. So the big question apart from
195. 6:55the spending is is that how do you
196. 6:58refine, how do you make a procurement
197. 7:00system more agile and versatile to be
198. 7:02able to deal with that changing threat?
199. 7:04>> Well, let's stay with Ukraine because
200. 7:06the war there has transformed what is
201. 7:07understood about the modern battlefield.
202. 7:10And the conflict has become a real-time
203. 7:12testing ground for new technologies.
204. 7:15Cheap autonomous drone systems are now a
205. 7:17central part of the military toolkit.
206. 7:20Well, despite having limited resources,
207. 7:23Ukraine has been able to destroy
208. 7:25Moscow's Black Sea Fleet, strike deep
209. 7:27into Russian territory, and stall
210. 7:30Russian advances. Here's President
211. 7:32Zelenskyy on the successes that
212. 7:34Ukrainian drones have had in this
213. 7:36conflict.
214. 7:49>> Well, Matthew, let's get more on that
215. 7:51war and how Ukraine has actually changed
216. 7:54what we know about the modern
217. 7:56battlefield.
218. 7:57>> Yeah, you're absolutely spot on,
219. 7:58Matthew. Deep strike is one of the
220. 8:00critical capabilities. Remember, if you
221. 8:02go back to February 2022, Zelenskyy was
222. 8:04engaged in conversations with the then
223. 8:06President Joe Biden on ATACMS and
224. 8:08HIMARS. HIMARS was the launcher, ATACMS
225. 8:10was the missile, but he couldn't
226. 8:12Zelenskyy couldn't get permission to
227. 8:13strike inside Russian territory. And now
228. 8:15you're seeing things like the FP-5
229. 8:17Flamingo that has a range of 3,000 km
230. 8:20that is critical in hitting energy
231. 8:22infrastructure. That's having a massive
232. 8:23effect on Russia's economy. But the
233. 8:26other one, I spoke to a special forces
234. 8:27drone commander a couple of weeks ago.
235. 8:29It's all about mid-strike at the moment,
236. 8:31and it's this ecosystem of drones that
237. 8:32they've got that they are using to
238. 8:34basically fire into about 150 km behind
239. 8:37Russian enemy lines and strangle those
240. 8:39resupplies of Russian infantry operating
241. 8:42in the occupied territories. And they're
242. 8:44doing that with a one-way attack drone
243. 8:46called the Beluga that will take out
244. 8:48armored vehicles supplying the front
245. 8:50line. But they're also using the Hornet,
246. 8:52the Interceptor, to take out one-way
247. 8:53attack drone missiles. And also another
248. 8:55drone called the Demento which is taking
249. 8:57out the plethora of intelligence,
250. 9:00surveillance, and reconnaissance drones
251. 9:02that the Russians are using in order to
252. 9:03get situational awareness. So, it's that
253. 9:05ecosystem of drones, if you like, that
254. 9:07are particularly effective at the moment
255. 9:08inside
256. 9:09in territories of Ukraine.
257. 9:12>> Well, to understand where the future of
258. 9:14warfare is heading, it is important to
259. 9:15look at which countries are making the
260. 9:18biggest investment. First, Russia,
261. 9:20because it's the world's third largest
262. 9:22military spender behind only the US and
263. 9:25China. Last year alone, it's estimated
264. 9:27they spent almost $200 billion
265. 9:30on their military. But 5 years into the
266. 9:32full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it's
267. 9:35estimated that almost 500,000 Russian
268. 9:38soldiers have been killed. Back to
269. 9:40Mikey, and what do we know about the
270. 9:42state then of the Russian military?
271. 9:45>> Oh, well, let let's break it down across
272. 9:47land, sea, and air. Um
273. 9:49the last data point from when we
274. 9:51reported on the security brief was 1.4
275. 9:54million Russian soldiers had either been
276. 9:56killed, uh taken POWs, or injured. 1.4
277. 10:01million, that's phenomenal. And there
278. 10:02are reports suggesting at the moment
279. 10:04that the life expectancy of a Russian
280. 10:07infantry infantryman that is reaching
281. 10:09the front line, the life expectancy is
282. 10:1120 minutes, which is a staggering data
283. 10:14point. That's just the personnel
284. 10:17component. If you then look at the
285. 10:19strategic bomber fleet that Russia had
286. 10:21before the start of the war, over 30% of
287. 10:24that has been attrited or destroyed.
288. 10:26You'll remember Operation Spider's Web
289. 10:29where the Ukrainians launched mass drone
290. 10:31attacks on Russian strategic bombers
291. 10:33over 4,000 km away from um Ukraine
292. 10:37border, uh which had a massive effect.
293. 10:39And that's not just about strategic
294. 10:40bombers, that's strategic bombers that
295. 10:42are involved in Russia's nuclear
296. 10:44deterrent, um which is obviously
297. 10:45critical as well. Then you've got the
298. 10:47Black Sea Fleet, it's been absolutely
299. 10:49decimated um since uh the start of the
300. 10:53war, and that's by uncrewed service
301. 10:55vehicles. So these these water drones,
302. 10:57these navy drones again that the
303. 10:59Ukrainians have been developing. But the
304. 11:01big thing is is what Russia's uh relying
305. 11:03on is
306. 11:045 million drones plus is what they're
307. 11:06producing per year, and that is what is
308. 11:09doing devastating effect to Ukraine at
309. 11:11the moment.
310. 11:11>> Well, let's turn to China now because
311. 11:13China has the second largest military
312. 11:14spend in the world with the budget in
313. 11:172026 of more than 270 billion dollars.
314. 11:20Some analysts think the figure could be
315. 11:22much higher. Over the past few decades,
316. 11:24Beijing has concentrated on modernizing
317. 11:27its armed forces, aiming to become a
318. 11:29military superpower as well as an
319. 11:32economic superpower.
320. 11:34Where has China been investing its
321. 11:36defense spending? Mikey, pick up on that
322. 11:38thought in terms of where they've been
323. 11:39spending.
324. 11:40>> Uh yeah, Matthew. It's rapid naval
325. 11:42expansion is the number one. Putting it
326. 11:45the largest naval
327. 11:48capability in the world. That's over 370
328. 11:50vessels. Then you got to look at the
329. 11:51long-range missiles. I mean, the the way
330. 11:53that they're building long-range
331. 11:55missiles, ballistic missile capability,
332. 11:57is is staggering. And then if you
333. 11:59include in that the ability for
334. 12:00hypersonic missiles, those missiles that
335. 12:02go Mach 5 plus and they're really hard
336. 12:04to intercept, if not impossible at the
337. 12:05moment, although the capability is
338. 12:06catching up with that.
339. 12:08And then if you look at you know sixth
340. 12:10generation fighters, we're starting to
341. 12:12see pictures of those coming online.
342. 12:14You're looking at cyber and space and
343. 12:16then this investment in drone warfare.
344. 12:18But the one thing I would say, Matthew,
345. 12:19is is that there are there are volumes
346. 12:22here. There's a there's a massive
347. 12:24production. I would certainly question
348. 12:26though the tech not the technological
349. 12:28equality of what the West is producing
350. 12:31versus what China is producing. So
351. 12:32volume, yes. Technological advancements,
352. 12:35I don't think they've caught up yet.
353. 12:36>> So that's China in cash terms. The
354. 12:38United States is still by far the
355. 12:39biggest spender on defense. Last year
356. 12:42the US defense budget was almost a
357. 12:44trillion dollars. That's more than the
358. 12:46combined defense spending of the next 10
359. 12:48highest spending countries. So Mikey,
360. 12:51let's return to you for a final thought.
361. 12:52America's got a trillion dollar defense
362. 12:54budget, but does having that large
363. 12:56defense budget necessarily equal
364. 12:59success?
365. 13:00>> Yeah, this is a good question to end on.
366. 13:03One trillion dollars, but it's spent on
367. 13:05high-tech, high-cost,
368. 13:07and high procurement timelines. And I
369. 13:10think one thing I would say is is that
370. 13:11what we've seen certainly over Iraq,
371. 13:14Afghanistan, and currently Iran epic
372. 13:16fury is the reliance on air power. And
373. 13:19it all comes back to what I would term
374. 13:21as the appetite for the electorate to
375. 13:24accept casualties in a war. And I think
376. 13:26it doesn't matter how big the US's
377. 13:29defense budget becomes, and they're
378. 13:30projecting 1.5 trillion in 2027, I think
379. 13:33the critical factor will always be, as I
380. 13:35said, the appetite of the US electorate
381. 13:37to accept major casualties in a war that
382. 13:40not necessarily everyone agrees with.
383. 13:43>> Mikey, thank you for taking us through
384. 13:44all of that, and that is all you need to
385. 13:46know about the future of warfare.