What is Putin's next move in the Ukraine war? | Global News Podcast — Transcript

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1. 0:00Welcome to the Global News podcast. I'm
2. 0:02Janet Jalil, and today I'm joined by our
3. 0:04diplomatic correspondent James Landale,
4. 0:07who's in Moscow. And NATO leaders are
5. 0:09meeting in Turkey as Russia appears to
6. 0:12be struggling in its war against Ukraine
7. 0:14now in its fifth year. And James, how do
8. 0:17you assess that the war is going for
9. 0:19President Putin?
10. 0:20>> Well, it depends whose perspective you
11. 0:23look at. From the Russian perspective at
12. 0:25the moment, they the authorities here
13. 0:27insist the war is going all right.
14. 0:30Uh Vladimir Putin briefed his commanders
15. 0:33just a few days ago, and both he and
16. 0:36they were talking about the gains that
17. 0:38they claimed they were making on the
18. 0:40front line. They claimed that they had
19. 0:42Russian forces had taken control of a
20. 0:44key city in eastern Ukraine. And at the
21. 0:47same time,
22. 0:48uh the the Russian authorities say that
23. 0:51they're doing pretty well in the air war
24. 0:53as well. Certainly, we know for a fact
25. 0:55that over the last week, uh Russia has
26. 0:58launched three substantial missile and
27. 1:01drone attacks on Ukraine. So, from the
28. 1:04Russian point of view, in terms of the
29. 1:06authorities, they are still insisting
30. 1:08that they are ticking over making
31. 1:09progress.
32. 1:11However, that is not the view of
33. 1:12Ukraine. It is not the view of uh
34. 1:15Ukraine's western allies, who believe
35. 1:17that Ukraine now has actually finally
36. 1:20managed to find a key weakness in the
37. 1:23Russian armory, namely its economy. And
38. 1:26so, in recent days and weeks, Ukraine
39. 1:28has been targeting it almost exclusively
40. 1:31Russian oil refineries,
41. 1:34so that at the moment there is a fuel
42. 1:36crisis in Russia.
43. 1:38Uh and the Ukrainians hope that that
44. 1:40will make a difference in the long run
45. 1:42by bringing the war closer to home for
46. 1:45ordinary Russians.
47. 1:47>> Uh and that is the big question, isn't
48. 1:49it? How will President Putin respond to
49. 1:52the fact that there are now long queues
50. 1:54for fuel, that the
51. 1:56in Moscow and St. Petersburg are seeing
52. 1:58black smoke on the skyline as these oil
53. 2:00refineries are hit. Will he change
54. 2:02course?
55. 2:04>> Well, we certainly know that the Kremlin
56. 2:06is aware of this and has felt that the
57. 2:09situation is serious enough to to
58. 2:10acknowledge it. So, Vladimir Putin has
59. 2:13got, you know, summoned in the cameras
60. 2:14and given an interview to state
61. 2:16television in which he's acknowledged
62. 2:17the fact that there is a problem with
63. 2:19the shortages. But he says that it's not
64. 2:21critical. However, certainly the
65. 2:24government is is making efforts to try
66. 2:26and counter that. They're trying to
67. 2:29increase imports of refined fuel. They
68. 2:32are subsidizing prices. They are
69. 2:34allowing lower grade fuel to be
70. 2:36distributed. But I think acknowledging
71. 2:39that there is a problem is not the same
72. 2:41as acknowledging that they are in any
73. 2:44way going to change their war aims. The
74. 2:46Russians have made it very clear, the
75. 2:48government here, that at the moment they
76. 2:49see no reason to change their war aims,
77. 2:52which are still pretty maximalist. And
78. 2:54Vladimir Putin, whenever he's asked
79. 2:56about it or is saying anything in public
80. 2:58about it, talks about
81. 3:00claiming more territory in eastern
82. 3:02Ukraine,
83. 3:03which he insists is already Russian
84. 3:05territory,
85. 3:06and keeping going on that front. So, at
86. 3:09the moment, there's no sign that the
87. 3:10Russian side is going to shift on this.
88. 3:14>> One big concern for for NATO leaders at
89. 3:16this summit is the warning that
90. 3:18President Putin might be looking at
91. 3:21opening up another front in Europe,
92. 3:23possibly launching some kind of attack
93. 3:26against a NATO ally.
94. 3:28>> Yeah, look, that is the big question
95. 3:29that western analysts and ministers and
96. 3:32diplomats are struggling with at the
97. 3:33moment because
98. 3:35if you accept that the Ukrainian actions
99. 3:38now is putting economic pressure on the
100. 3:41Kremlin that potentially could become
101. 3:43political pressure,
102. 3:45the Ukrainians are hoping that that
103. 3:46persuades Vladimir Putin to come to the
104. 3:48table, to agree, let let's talk, let
105. 3:50let's have some kind of discussion about
106. 3:51a
107. 3:52potential political settlement to this
108. 3:54conflict. However, there is another
109. 3:57bunch of analysts who will tell you that
110. 3:59actually in that circumstance,
111. 4:01uh Mr. Putin will not
112. 4:03move to talks, but instead he will think
113. 4:05of pushing back in some ways. And the
114. 4:08question therefore is, if Mr. Putin were
115. 4:11to escalate, how would he do that? And
116. 4:13at the moment, uh Western analysts are
117. 4:15going through the full gamut of
118. 4:17potential uh possibilities from, you
119. 4:20know, stepping up actions on the front
120. 4:21line in Eastern Ukraine through to some
121. 4:24kind of increased gray war attack on on
122. 4:28the on uh West, or even some kind of
123. 4:31action that actually prods NATO itself
124. 4:34potentially against uh Poland or or
125. 4:38Baltic. All of these things have been
126. 4:39speculated about by the newspapers and
127. 4:43uh analysts. Uh and the question there
128. 4:45is is whenever you talk to those
129. 4:47analysts, very few of them actually
130. 4:49agree where they think the Russian uh
131. 4:53leader may or may not move. Others say
132. 4:56this. They say actually, uh Mr. Putin is
133. 5:00actually quite cautious at times. And
134. 5:03so, it might be some time before we
135. 5:06actually learn what the next move he's
136. 5:08going to make is.
137. 5:10>> And he'll have been encouraged by
138. 5:11President Trump's repeated criticism of
139. 5:14NATO allies at the summit. President
140. 5:17Trump has also been keeping in touch
141. 5:20with President speaking to him before
142. 5:22going to Ankara. And apparently he'll be
143. 5:24speaking to him after he meets Ukrainian
144. 5:26President Vladimir Zelensky. So, this is
145. 5:30something that perhaps the Russian
146. 5:31leader is hoping he can capitalize on.
147. 5:34>> Well, look, both President Zelensky and
148. 5:36President Putin have been in a sort of
149. 5:38um
150. 5:39a game of who can sweet talk Donald
151. 5:40Trump the best ahead of the NATO summit.
152. 5:44Both of them having conversations with
153. 5:45him. Both of them trying to get their
154. 5:48uh their narrative across. At the
155. 5:50moment,
156. 5:52the Americans seem to accept the
157. 5:55Ukrainian narrative that actually, you
158. 5:57know, for the first time in a while,
159. 5:59Ukraine is more on the front foot in
160. 6:01this war than it has been.
161. 6:03But at the same time, Donald Trump
162. 6:05Donald Trump received messages from
163. 6:07Vladimir Putin congratulating him on the
164. 6:10250th Independence Day anniversary
165. 6:14celebrations over the weekend. They had
166. 6:17a telephone call in which
167. 6:19>> [snorts]
168. 6:19>> President Putin again invited Donald
169. 6:22Trump to come to to Russia for a visit.
170. 6:25And essentially but reinforcing the
171. 6:29arguments that, you know, yes, Russia is
172. 6:31in principle ready to accept some kind
173. 6:33of political settlement to this war
174. 6:36as long as it is clearly on Russia's
175. 6:38terms. But until that time happens, it
176. 6:41is going to continue prosecuting
177. 6:43this war on Ukraine.
178. 6:45>> Recent polls in in Russia have indicated
179. 6:49that President Putin's approval ratings
180. 6:51are dipping, that people are very
181. 6:53pessimistic about the economy, more
182. 6:56pessimistic than they've been for
183. 6:57decades.
184. 6:59How secure is President Putin's
185. 7:01position? Is there any internal threat
186. 7:03against him?
187. 7:05>> It is true that his his ratings have
188. 7:08dipped a bit in the opinion polls. I
189. 7:10mean, they're still pretty high compared
190. 7:11to any
191. 7:12to to normal leaders in opinion polls.
192. 7:15But for
193. 7:18Russian leader, they are have dipped a
194. 7:20bit as a result of some people's
195. 7:22concerns about the state of the economy
196. 7:24and the state of the war.
197. 7:25Um
198. 7:26but the question is, does that translate
199. 7:28into real political pressure on the
200. 7:31Kremlin? This is
201. 7:33not a a country where there are many
202. 7:35vehicles for that pressure to be voiced.
203. 7:37There are elections for the Duma later
204. 7:39this year, so that gives at least some
205. 7:42capability for
206. 7:44voters to express some opinions. Uh but
207. 7:47at the moment, uh there's very little
208. 7:50evidence of
209. 7:51any kind of substantial political
210. 7:55opposition
211. 7:56driving uh the Kremlin into a into a
212. 7:59different position on this simply on the
213. 8:01basis of the economic
214. 8:03uh fuel shortage that they're going
215. 8:04through at the moment.
216. 8:06>> And James, it it does seem incredible
217. 8:08how there has been this big turnaround
218. 8:10in the past few months. We were talking
219. 8:13just a few months ago about Ukraine
220. 8:14being on the ropes, but now it seems
221. 8:17that Ukraine has a new-found confidence,
222. 8:19which seems to be largely down to its
223. 8:21advanced drone technology.
224. 8:24>> Well, I think one thing we've seen
225. 8:25during this war is quite a regular
226. 8:27pattern of both sides' fortunes rising
227. 8:31and falling at various stages. And
228. 8:34sometimes that has been as a result of
229. 8:36um uh
230. 8:37the uh outcome of, you know, military
231. 8:40action on the battlefield. Sometimes it
232. 8:41has been a result of um economic uh
233. 8:45rise and fall. Sometimes it has been
234. 8:46because of changes in support from uh
235. 8:50you know, Western allies giving more or
236. 8:52less support to Ukraine. Sometimes, as
237. 8:55you say, it's been a result of
238. 8:56technological advance. But yes, at the
239. 8:58moment, Ukraine believes it has the wind
240. 9:00in its sails in a way that it hasn't for
241. 9:02some time. And it hopes to use this
242. 9:05moment to put more pressure uh on the
243. 9:07Russian uh leadership to uh to change
244. 9:09its position.
245. 9:11But at the same time, uh it's entirely
246. 9:13possible that uh the situation remains
247. 9:16pretty stable over the rest of the
248. 9:17summer. And then come next winter, uh
249. 9:20Ukrainian uh the authorities are really
250. 9:23worried about the state of their energy
251. 9:26capacity during the next winter because
252. 9:28so much of it was destroyed by Russia
253. 9:30during the last winter. And none of this
254. 9:33can be repaired in short order in time
255. 9:35for next winter. So, the Ukrainian
256. 9:37authorities are doing their best to go
257. 9:40go around the world finding as many
258. 9:42generators, portable generators as they
259. 9:44can and bring them into Ukraine. So,
260. 9:46they've got extra charging capability
261. 9:49to try and tide them through next
262. 9:50winter. So, it's entirely possible that
263. 9:52the the tide of this war flows in a
264. 9:54different direction in the future. But
265. 9:56you're you're right to say at the moment
266. 9:58Ukraine believes it's got an edge simply
267. 10:01because it has managed to find what it
268. 10:03believes is an economic vulnerability
269. 10:07in the Russian flank and it's punching
270. 10:09that that bruise relentlessly at the
271. 10:12moment.
272. 10:13>> James, thank you. That was James
273. 10:15Landale, our diplomatic correspondent in
274. 10:18Moscow. And if you'd like to hear more
275. 10:20of the Global News Podcast, please click
276. 10:23on the link below.