What is artificial general intelligence? | Ian Bremmer Explains — Transcript

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1. 0:04- If you've been listening to AI experts lately,
2. 0:07one phrase comes up over and over and over.
3. 0:10- AGI, artificial general intelligence.
4. 0:12- AGI.
5. 0:13- AGI, whatever you want to call it.
6. 0:14- Super intelligent and AGI.
7. 0:16- Our goal is to make AGI.
8. 0:18- When AGI arrives, you know, I think it's going to change
9. 0:21pretty much everything about the way we do things.
10. 0:24- AGI, artificial general intelligence,
11. 0:27the technology holy grail,
12. 0:29machines that don't just mimic human thinking
13. 0:32but match and then fast surpass it.
14. 0:34But ask those same experts their thoughts
15. 0:37on the what and when of AGI,
16. 0:39you get a dozen different answers.
17. 0:40Some say it's when a computer
18. 0:42can do any intellectual task a human can.
19. 0:45Others say it's about transfer learning,
20. 0:47applying knowledge to different situations.
21. 0:49Some say it's 10 years away,
22. 0:51others, two.
23. 0:52Today's AI tools can feel very human,
24. 0:55at times brilliant.
25. 0:57But large language models aren't yet intelligent.
26. 1:00They're highly skilled but narrow.
27. 1:03They're good at mimicking and matching patterns,
28. 1:05trained on tasks like writing code,
29. 1:08or generating images and text.
30. 1:10Artificial general intelligence is very different.
31. 1:13These are machines that understand, and learn,
32. 1:15and adapt like or better than humans.
33. 1:18Many LLMs now arguably pass the Turing Test,
34. 1:21so experts have proposed new goalposts
35. 1:24to understand when machines reach human level cognition.
36. 1:28Microsoft AI's Mustafa Suleyman says that AGI
37. 1:31is when you can hand an AI $100,000
38. 1:34and it turns it into a million on its own.
39. 1:37Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak says AGI is when a robot
40. 1:41can make coffee in a stranger's kitchen.
41. 1:44To understand AGI's potential,
42. 1:46imagine you have an apple and you want to make a meal.
43. 1:50Google gives you recipe links.
44. 1:52ChatGPT writes a recipe
45. 1:53in the style of Shakespeare or Taylor Swift.
46. 1:56But AGI knows your taste, orders ingredients,
47. 1:59hires a cook, and has dinner ready for you
48. 2:02when you get home.
49. 2:03Or let's say you ask, how do I turn Uzbekistan
50. 2:07into a top 10 global economy?
51. 2:09AGI laughs a bit
52. 2:11and then reads everything ever written
53. 2:14about economic development.
54. 2:15It builds models, it runs simulations,
55. 2:17it factors in demographics, climate, and politics,
56. 2:20and crafts a strategy,
57. 2:21and starts emailing ministers in Uzbekistan, in Uzbek,
58. 2:26with a reform plan.
59. 2:27That's the difference.
60. 2:28AGI doesn't just tell you the answers,
61. 2:31it figures them out like a human strategist,
62. 2:33but one who never sleeps, never eats,
63. 2:35doesn't waste time scrolling Instagram,
64. 2:37and then gets it done.
65. 2:39What happens next?
66. 2:40Best case scenario, AGI helps us solve climate change,
67. 2:44cure cancer, boost productivity,
68. 2:46and enter a new golden age
69. 2:47where innovation isn't limited by us.
70. 2:50Worst case, AGI decides that human beings
71. 2:53are inefficient, carbon-based error machines
72. 2:55and logically concludes the easiest way to save the planet
73. 2:58is to eliminate us.
74. 3:00We are not yet on the brink of Skynet.
75. 3:04We aren't an algorithm away from "The Terminator."
76. 3:07Computers still struggle
77. 3:08with fundamental human concepts like spatial recognition
78. 3:11and sensory perception.
79. 3:13An AGI is also limited
80. 3:14by the enormous energy needed to power it.
81. 3:17But dismissing AGI as science fiction is a mistake
82. 3:20because virtually every AI expert out there
83. 3:24says that AGI is coming fast.
84. 3:26And society is not ready.
85. 3:28The timeline may be fuzzy,
86. 3:30but what is certain is that AGI is a technology
87. 3:32that will redefine intelligence, the rules of power,
88. 3:35and with it, our understanding of what it means to be human.