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What Happens When a Country Stops Telling the Truth About Itself? — Transcript

by Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers · 5,031 words · 746 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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  1. 0:00Megan, you've now officially been
  2. 0:01working in new media too long because
  3. 0:03you said there's a lot of reasons for
  4. 0:05wellfounded doubts. I think you mean
  5. 0:07horseshit, and nonsense.
  6. 0:10>> I'm Megan [music] Connors.
  7. 0:11>> I'm Justin Wolfers. This is the
  8. 0:13professor is in. Think about this as
  9. 0:15office hours. Megan's walked into my
  10. 0:18office with your questions. My turn to
  11. 0:20answer.
  12. 0:23>> [music]
  13. 0:25>> You released a video earlier this week
  14. 0:27about a noncitizen voting report that
  15. 0:31was released by the Census Bureau. This
  16. 0:33report has been denounced by experts as
  17. 0:36being both politically motivated and
  18. 0:39extremely flawed. And you really dug
  19. 0:41into the wonky bit, explaining exactly
  20. 0:45how these numbers are likely explained
  21. 0:47by a combination of people matching
  22. 0:50errors and outdated citizenship records.
  23. 0:54Today, as always, I've got several
  24. 0:56follow-up questions I'd like to ask you.
  25. 0:58The first thing I want to do is talk
  26. 1:01about what might be the elephant in the
  27. 1:03room. And this is something that you
  28. 1:05didn't discuss in the video, but I think
  29. 1:07it's important to address. Even if these
  30. 1:10numbers turned out to be accurate or
  31. 1:12true, and we have a lot of wellfounded
  32. 1:15doubts about that, would they have been
  33. 1:17enough to sway the 2020 election?
  34. 1:22>> Megan, you've now officially been
  35. 1:23working in new media too long because
  36. 1:25you said there's a lot of reasons for
  37. 1:27wellfounded doubts. I think you mean
  38. 1:29horseshit, and nonsense. Also,
  39. 1:32I just want to say to folks, if you'd
  40. 1:34watched that earlier video, I probably
  41. 1:37looked really cranky. And I am. I am
  42. 1:40really cranky. I since I recorded that
  43. 1:42video, I just spent today whale watching
  44. 1:44just to calm down. And the whale has
  45. 1:46made me feel a whole lot better. In that
  46. 1:47video, let me just give folks a little
  47. 1:49bit of background. I think we tried to
  48. 1:51make two important points. one that when
  49. 1:54the Census Bureau, an official
  50. 1:55statistical organization that is meant
  51. 1:58to be independent, meant to have a
  52. 1:59nonpartisan head, that has had a a long
  53. 2:02and illustrious history of telling
  54. 2:05important truths and that has been
  55. 2:07devoted to measuring the truth and
  56. 2:09reporting the truth without fear or
  57. 2:10favor and no partisanship whatsoever.
  58. 2:12When it shifts to releasing propaganda,
  59. 2:16which it just did for the first time in
  60. 2:18its history, that's a moment. That's why
  61. 2:21I was mad. That is really, really
  62. 2:24important for folks at home to
  63. 2:26understand. I have been defending
  64. 2:28official numbers. That job just got a
  65. 2:29lot harder. I can't today say all
  66. 2:32numbers are nonsense. But what I can do
  67. 2:34is say this set was absolute nonsense.
  68. 2:37So that was the first point, which is,
  69. 2:39hey, hold on folks. Our government just
  70. 2:42moved down the same pathway as Greece
  71. 2:44and Argentina and Russia and all the
  72. 2:48tinpot dictatorships that start to have
  73. 2:50their statistical authorities become
  74. 2:52propaganda arms for the government. Hang
  75. 2:55on. Hold on to that. Care about that.
  76. 2:58Pay attention. Second thing we did in
  77. 3:00that video is I said, "Hey, this is not
  78. 3:01a trust me exercise. In fact, I'm an
  79. 3:04economics professor. I love it. It's a
  80. 3:06teaching opportunity. I can show you how
  81. 3:09numbers work so that you can see
  82. 3:12the fraud for yourself. So there's not a
  83. 3:15moment in there in which I say trust me.
  84. 3:17What I didn't do is address the
  85. 3:19politics. Maybe I should have. So great
  86. 3:22question. I'm happy to answer it. First
  87. 3:23of all, where does politics come from in
  88. 3:25this? This is a report written by a
  89. 3:28bunch of partisan hacks were brought
  90. 3:29into the Census Bureau. The Census
  91. 3:31Bureau put its logo on it. This is not a
  92. 3:33report about something apolitical like
  93. 3:37the number of new businesses started in
  94. 3:39Southeast Michigan in the fourth
  95. 3:40quarter. This is a report on the extent
  96. 3:43of voter fraud in the 2020 election. The
  97. 3:46other thing it's not is a forensic
  98. 3:47analysis where you actually find people
  99. 3:50who've done anything. It's a statistical
  100. 3:51exercise and it was published because of
  101. 3:54course the president is obsessed by his
  102. 3:56own lies about the 2020 election. And so
  103. 3:59the commerce secretary who runs the
  104. 4:01Census Bureau and the White House
  105. 4:03trumpeted this report as proof that we
  106. 4:05have widespread fraud in the 2020
  107. 4:08election. Even if it were true, and if
  108. 4:10anyone watches the video, they will
  109. 4:11know. There's no evidence that it is
  110. 4:14true, but even if it were true, this
  111. 4:16report made a claim that there were
  112. 4:1724,000 non-citizens who voted. As we say
  113. 4:20in the video, the reality is probably
  114. 4:22closer to zero, although there may be a
  115. 4:25handful of cases that the courts have
  116. 4:26found. How was that anywhere near enough
  117. 4:28to determine the 2020 election? Biden at
  118. 4:31one level won that election by I think 7
  119. 4:34million votes if you look at the popular
  120. 4:35vote. Uh and so 24,000 going to do some
  121. 4:38math, 24,000 is smaller than 7 million.
  122. 4:42Uh the other way that people count by
  123. 4:44how much you won the election was they
  124. 4:45look at the specific swing states. And
  125. 4:47so the important swing states in 2020
  126. 4:49were Arizona where Biden won by 10,000
  127. 4:53votes. And this report reckons that it
  128. 4:55found,00
  129. 4:57fraudulent votes. Georgia that Biden won
  130. 4:59by 12,000 votes. This report reckons 400
  131. 5:02of them were fraudulent. And Wisconsin
  132. 5:04that Biden won by 21,000 votes. This
  133. 5:06report reckons that 500 of them were
  134. 5:08fraudulent. The point is the claim which
  135. 5:11is audacious and outrageous that 24,000
  136. 5:14people voted who shouldn't is wrong.
  137. 5:16Even if it were true, the president's
  138. 5:18lie that any of this mattered at all in
  139. 5:21the 2020 election is nonsense.
  140. 5:24>> Thank you. I think that context is
  141. 5:25really helpful, particularly for people
  142. 5:26who may have not caught that other
  143. 5:28video. So, next I want to ask you if you
  144. 5:32think that there even is a responsible
  145. 5:36version of this report that could have
  146. 5:40come out, could have existed, and if so,
  147. 5:42what would it look like? So you can
  148. 5:44think about what the report's trying to
  149. 5:46do as actually being a sort of sub field
  150. 5:49of economics that I've been involved in
  151. 5:51that you might call forensic economics
  152. 5:53which is when there's wrongdoing
  153. 5:55sometimes it leaves footprints in the
  154. 5:57data. A very famous form of this is
  155. 5:59Steven Levit of freconomics fame found
  156. 6:01that sumo wrestlers were consistently
  157. 6:04cheating in some of their bouts letting
  158. 6:05their mates win when it mattered more to
  159. 6:07their mate than it does for them. If
  160. 6:08from sports, you might be aware of
  161. 6:10evidence that at the end of the season,
  162. 6:11if your team does badly enough, it gets
  163. 6:13higher draft picks and so basketball
  164. 6:15teams have a tendency to tank. That's
  165. 6:17not in the spirit of the game, but it
  166. 6:19leaves footprints in the data. I wrote a
  167. 6:21paper earlier in my career that showed
  168. 6:22that it looked like college basketball
  169. 6:25players were involved with point
  170. 6:26shaving. They would win the game, but by
  171. 6:28enough that if you bet against them, you
  172. 6:30would lose. So there's actually a
  173. 6:32respectable tradition of um Ray Fistman
  174. 6:35has a paper where he looks at exports to
  175. 6:37and from Hong Kong and if you look in
  176. 6:39one data set there's a lot and if you
  177. 6:41look at another data set there's not
  178. 6:42very much and it looks like tax evasion.
  179. 6:44So it's a very long and respectable
  180. 6:45history of saying when there is
  181. 6:47consistent widespread across the board
  182. 6:49cheating that leaves footprints in the
  183. 6:51data let's go look. So there's a way if
  184. 6:54one thought that there was a real risk
  185. 6:56that there was widespread voter fraud
  186. 6:58that one could go and look. The way one
  187. 7:00would have done that actually would have
  188. 7:02looked a lot like what the Census Bureau
  189. 7:03did, which is you would have found a
  190. 7:05bunch of people who voted and you would
  191. 7:07have tried to figure out how many of
  192. 7:08them show up on the citizenship records
  193. 7:10as being non-citizens. That's what the
  194. 7:12census report did. The problem in the
  195. 7:14census report is a very very well-known
  196. 7:16statistical problem which is when you go
  197. 7:18looking for very very rare events, you
  198. 7:20move from incredibly accurate to staring
  199. 7:22at the subset where the inaccuracy may
  200. 7:25turn out to be really really
  201. 7:26problematic. That's an example of this.
  202. 7:28And so what you would have had to have
  203. 7:29done is not only do this analysis where
  204. 7:31you say this person voted. Let me try to
  205. 7:33figure out whether they're a citizen.
  206. 7:34You would then say the next step which
  207. 7:36is given the possibility of mistakes in
  208. 7:39that linkage
  209. 7:41which would lead me to overstate it. If
  210. 7:44I made a range of statistical
  211. 7:46assumptions about those imperfections
  212. 7:48and how they played out, what would my
  213. 7:49conclusion look like? The Census Bureau
  214. 7:51doesn't give doesn't do that exercise.
  215. 7:53It just says 24,000 non-Americans voted.
  216. 7:56doesn't give enough background to do
  217. 7:58that exercise and they show no sign of
  218. 8:00having done that exercise. I can do that
  219. 8:02sort of roughly in my head for you. This
  220. 8:04is not a statistical estimate. This is
  221. 8:06experience and thinking about all of
  222. 8:08this. I think we learn from this
  223. 8:10analysis that somewhere between minus
  224. 8:15300,000
  225. 8:17and plus 400,000
  226. 8:19nonitizens voted. I think we know it
  227. 8:22couldn't have been a negative number. So
  228. 8:23therefore, we know it's between zero and
  229. 8:25a very large number. But I also want to
  230. 8:27remind you before this exercise, you
  231. 8:29knew it couldn't be lower than zero. And
  232. 8:31you knew you couldn't be certain no one
  233. 8:32was doing it. So when you do that
  234. 8:34exercise,
  235. 8:36honestly, you probably would have
  236. 8:37learned, and I want to be clear, those
  237. 8:39numbers were, you could either call them
  238. 8:41judgment or made up, but you very
  239. 8:44quickly learned that the entire exercise
  240. 8:45is uninformative.
  241. 8:47>> Yeah. There's a tradition that if what
  242. 8:49you do is you figure out something
  243. 8:50didn't happen, it's a it's good practice
  244. 8:52to publish the paper, but if you learn
  245. 8:54that there was no point writing the
  246. 8:56paper because the data is basically
  247. 8:57uninformative,
  248. 8:59you have to lead with that.
  249. 9:01>> Leading census statisticians
  250. 9:05study the data and realize there's no
  251. 9:07way that the available data could answer
  252. 9:09the question the president has. That's
  253. 9:11the responsible headline.
  254. 9:13>> And hopefully it would have at least one
  255. 9:16name on it. It would have an author.
  256. 9:18>> It would have reviewers. And the
  257. 9:20reviewers, if the authors messed up any
  258. 9:22of the things I just said, they would
  259. 9:24have insisted they put that stuff on.
  260. 9:26And those people would have been proud
  261. 9:27to be in the public domain having
  262. 9:29produced a sophisticated statistical
  263. 9:31product that helps the world, helps
  264. 9:33America understand itself a little more.
  265. 9:35So, another really interesting part of
  266. 9:37your video, it kind of comes closer to
  267. 9:39the end, is when you compare what
  268. 9:42happened here with what had happened
  269. 9:45earlier at the Bureau of Labor
  270. 9:47Statistics when they fired the BLS
  271. 9:50director a little over a year ago. And
  272. 9:52you note that the BLS guard rail that
  273. 9:54ultimately held, but this one at the
  274. 9:57census seems to have failed. Do you have
  275. 9:59any theories about what was maybe
  276. 10:02different in this case or what that
  277. 10:05tells us about how to go forward and
  278. 10:08protect other agencies?
  279. 10:10>> Yeah. And actually, it gets to a theme
  280. 10:11that we've talked about a lot at
  281. 10:12Platypus Economics, which is the
  282. 10:14importance of institutions. In order to
  283. 10:16get to that part of the story, I
  284. 10:17probably need to rewind because not
  285. 10:19everyone follows statistical melodramas
  286. 10:21at the level that you and I do, Megan.
  287. 10:23>> No,
  288. 10:24>> I mean a lot do. I know among your
  289. 10:26friends that's all anyone's talking
  290. 10:28about. Megan was a I I met Megan as a
  291. 10:31masters of public policy students. Let
  292. 10:34me explain the previous melodrama so we
  293. 10:36understand that the system did hold. One
  294. 10:38day the employment report comes out.
  295. 10:40Trump literally doesn't like the numbers
  296. 10:43so fires the commissioner in charge of
  297. 10:45the whole process not because the
  298. 10:47numbers were wrong but because he didn't
  299. 10:49like them. Now those numbers had already
  300. 10:51been published. So how should you
  301. 10:52interpret this? They think you
  302. 10:53understand this as a warning to everyone
  303. 10:55across the government that unless you're
  304. 10:57loyal and make sure nothing bad is ever
  305. 11:00published about the president, your
  306. 11:01job's at risk. That made front page news
  307. 11:03everywhere. And actually, I want to
  308. 11:04pause on that because
  309. 11:07the Bureau of Labor Statistics never
  310. 11:09actually was compromised, never produced
  311. 11:11a false number. What happened last week
  312. 11:13that made me so mad and the reason I
  313. 11:15made that video and the reason we're
  314. 11:16back here today is this hasn't been on
  315. 11:18the front page of any newspaper. This is
  316. 11:20actually worse. This is the system
  317. 11:23broke. This is our official statistical
  318. 11:25agency. There's not a hint of
  319. 11:26exaggeration in saying this is now
  320. 11:29producing propaganda for the president.
  321. 11:32There is no simple source of truth
  322. 11:34anymore. That is a profound
  323. 11:38shift in how democracies operate. Okay,
  324. 11:41so that's the first difference.
  325. 11:43Actually, this one happened the Census
  326. 11:44Bureau happened in the shadows,
  327. 11:46>> right?
  328. 11:47>> What happened over in the BLS is hit the
  329. 11:49front page of every paper. Then the
  330. 11:51president doubled down and nominated an
  331. 11:53absolute clown, a partisan hack by the
  332. 11:56name of EJ Anton whose only claim to
  333. 11:58fame is he knows nothing about bureaus
  334. 12:00labor or statistics. So they put him in
  335. 12:02charge of the Bureau of Labor
  336. 12:03Statistics. Well, they tried, but that
  337. 12:06position is a Senate confirmed position.
  338. 12:08Now all the uproar happened and still
  339. 12:10the Trump administration wanted to put a
  340. 12:12partisan hack who literally wouldn't
  341. 12:13have been able to be employed as an
  342. 12:15entry-level person within that
  343. 12:16organization. probably had applied and
  344. 12:18been rejected as a younger fellow. Trump
  345. 12:21persisted. Eventually, Lis, that's a
  346. 12:24Senate confirmed job. Eventually, Lisa
  347. 12:25Macowski, the senator from Alaska, sort
  348. 12:27of said, "Hey, man, this is nonsense.
  349. 12:29I'm not voting in favor of it." And
  350. 12:31Trump quietly withdrew the nomination.
  351. 12:34So, what mattered there is Senate
  352. 12:36confirmation and a less partisan
  353. 12:40senator, Macowski. So not one of the
  354. 12:44foaming at the mouth I will do whatever
  355. 12:46the president says types. She's one of
  356. 12:47the small number who's independently
  357. 12:49minded. That was enough. And
  358. 12:51subsequently and this didn't get
  359. 12:53reported enough though we did some a lot
  360. 12:55on the platypus economics. The
  361. 12:57administration realized the only way
  362. 12:58forward was to appoint someone who's
  363. 13:00serious and they appointed Brett
  364. 13:01Matsumoto who's a career statistician
  365. 13:03and exactly the sort of person who
  366. 13:05should be BLS commissioner and I believe
  367. 13:06he was actually confirmed last week. So
  368. 13:08the system held, but actually it only
  369. 13:11held because one senator was willing to
  370. 13:14stand up and say no. We have other cases
  371. 13:17where the system didn't hold. I might
  372. 13:19argue that appointing an antivaxer head
  373. 13:22of health and human services is at least
  374. 13:25as problematic. And I don't mean that in
  375. 13:27a partisan sense. I mean that in a I'm
  376. 13:30someone who believes in ground truth and
  377. 13:32that bloke doesn't. He likes to do cold
  378. 13:34plunges wearing jeans. So, Macowski made
  379. 13:37a difference. Senate confirmation made a
  380. 13:38difference. What didn't we have here?
  381. 13:40Well, Congress has actually said the
  382. 13:42Bureau of Labor Statistics must be
  383. 13:43headed by a statistical expert who has
  384. 13:46experience running, sorry, the Census
  385. 13:47Bureau must be headed by a statistical
  386. 13:50expert who has expertise and experience
  387. 13:52running large scale organizations. The
  388. 13:53last one resigned and they haven't
  389. 13:56appointed anyone. And if you don't
  390. 13:58appoint anyone, you don't need to go
  391. 13:59through Senate confirmation. So they put
  392. 14:01a partisan hack who is not a statistical
  393. 14:04expert but uh is a political appointee
  394. 14:07in charge of the census bureau. And so
  395. 14:09that's the end run around the Senate
  396. 14:11which is the White House now runs the
  397. 14:14Census Bureau. Now there's another layer
  398. 14:16of protection which is our public
  399. 14:18servants are good and serious people who
  400. 14:21have and particularly our statisticians.
  401. 14:23They're interested in truth rather than
  402. 14:24partisan nonsense. I know many many
  403. 14:26government statisticians. I don't
  404. 14:28actually know how any of them vote.
  405. 14:30might be the same as me, might be
  406. 14:31different, doesn't matter to them. What
  407. 14:33they care about is x-prime x inverse
  408. 14:35xprime y. They are deeply devoted to
  409. 14:39statistical truths. So, none of them
  410. 14:42would work on this report. None of them
  411. 14:44would sign it. But the acting census
  412. 14:47bureau director just brought in outside
  413. 14:48think tank hacks to write this nonsense.
  414. 14:51And my guess is the career staff stayed
  415. 14:54back. I was surprised. So, I didn't
  416. 14:56actually receive any calls from career
  417. 14:57staff, but they left plenty of clues
  418. 15:00that this was not business as usual.
  419. 15:02That's why there was no author, there
  420. 15:04was no reviewer. Normally, when you
  421. 15:06release a report, it's part of a report
  422. 15:08series. It was not one of those blah
  423. 15:10blah blah blah blah blah blah. I think
  424. 15:11what those two stories show you is the
  425. 15:13fragility of our institutions. In some
  426. 15:16sense, we were lucky that Macowski got
  427. 15:18in the way in this time. We were unlucky
  428. 15:20that the previous Census Bureau
  429. 15:21resigned. And Trump appears to have
  430. 15:23figured out or Howard Lutnik appears to
  431. 15:25have figured out he can have them
  432. 15:27manufacture propaganda as long as they
  433. 15:29don't actually put a serious
  434. 15:30statistician up who meets the
  435. 15:32legislative requirement. And again, the
  436. 15:34legislative requirement is independence,
  437. 15:37expertise, experience, none of which
  438. 15:39this blog has.
  439. 15:40>> I wonder if there's anything I don't
  440. 15:41know. I also feel like our news cycle is
  441. 15:45primed to give the BLS a lot of
  442. 15:46attention, right? Maybe it's because of
  443. 15:48just how regularly we get data from
  444. 15:50them, how many different Wall Street but
  445. 15:53other organizations are kind of always
  446. 15:55looking toward that. And I love the
  447. 15:57Census Bureau and I get excited
  448. 16:00[laughter] when the every 10 years the
  449. 16:02Census comes out and the you know the
  450. 16:04ACS, but I do think it's a little bit of
  451. 16:07a like unloved stepchild sometimes. I
  452. 16:10think that's right and it's a really
  453. 16:11important thing which is the
  454. 16:11unemployment numbers and the employment
  455. 16:13numbers come out every month
  456. 16:15>> that puts financial markets around the
  457. 16:16world staring at the Bureau of Labor
  458. 16:17Statistics. It puts the front page of
  459. 16:19New York Times and the Wall Street
  460. 16:20Journal reliably on the bureau. It means
  461. 16:23every financial and economics journalist
  462. 16:24is dealing with the bureau. The Census
  463. 16:26Bureau actually does the phone calls
  464. 16:29that lead to the unemployment rate. The
  465. 16:31bureau BLS pays them to do that. So
  466. 16:34actually a lot of the real work's going
  467. 16:35on at the Census Bureau. I love the fact
  468. 16:38that you love the Census Bureau. Megan,
  469. 16:40do you want to, you know, say a few
  470. 16:42words about your favorite? What is your
  471. 16:44love letter to the Census Bureau?
  472. 16:46>> I when I taught human geography, it is
  473. 16:49like the number one quantitative data
  474. 16:51source for human geographers. It was
  475. 16:54usually like the first week of lessons.
  476. 16:57We learned about what the census was. I
  477. 17:00remember in when I was in grad school
  478. 17:02for teaching, I was sent the American
  479. 17:05Community Survey, which is only sent out
  480. 17:06to like I don't know the percentage, but
  481. 17:08a certain number of people.
  482. 17:10>> Yeah. Okay. And it's the off years of
  483. 17:12the census. And I was
  484. 17:13>> the baby census.
  485. 17:14>> I was so excited. I was had two other
  486. 17:17roommates at the time and I was like
  487. 17:19forced them to do it. I felt so honored.
  488. 17:21But yeah, I just love how like both
  489. 17:23simple it is and how fundamental it is
  490. 17:25to basically every other data and
  491. 17:29statistic that we have to rely on in
  492. 17:31this country and our government and our
  493. 17:33businesses and everyday people um are
  494. 17:36able to look to it and rely on it.
  495. 17:39>> So I think that's right and actually it
  496. 17:40has an important constitutional role
  497. 17:42which is the counts how many people are
  498. 17:44in each state and therefore how many
  499. 17:46congressional representatives are in
  500. 17:47each state. So if it can't be trusted to
  501. 17:50tell the ground truth, our democracy is
  502. 17:52based on falsehoods.
  503. 17:53>> That's why we have defended this
  504. 17:56institution so stoutly for literally a
  505. 17:58couple hundred years. It is the
  506. 18:01foundation of our democracy and that's
  507. 18:04built upon truth and trust. And to see
  508. 18:08it subjugated this way. If they're going
  509. 18:11to lie today about whether citizens
  510. 18:13voted, are they going to lie tomorrow
  511. 18:15about how many congressional
  512. 18:17representatives should come out of
  513. 18:18Texas? And if that's the case, then are
  514. 18:20we back to being in a situation in which
  515. 18:22people in different states have to
  516. 18:24fight, use that word carefully, fight to
  517. 18:27get adequate representation
  518. 18:29in our United States. That's not a joke.
  519. 18:33That's what these wars are often about.
  520. 18:35Who gets what in the new country we
  521. 18:37elect to form together. And if you start
  522. 18:40to subvert some of that, you raise some
  523. 18:42very, very big and very expensive
  524. 18:44issues.
  525. 18:45>> That's basically my last question for
  526. 18:47you, but maybe you want to add something
  527. 18:49else. What is or are the long-term
  528. 18:53consequences you're most concerned about
  529. 18:56when it comes to this sort of
  530. 18:57manipulation and politicization of
  531. 19:00statistical institutions?
  532. 19:02>> So, I just gave one version of the
  533. 19:04story. It's not absurd to believe that
  534. 19:07once you start fiddling with these
  535. 19:08numbers, you start fiddling with
  536. 19:10congressional representation and the
  537. 19:12union itself unravels. That's I'm
  538. 19:16totally serious about it would be a long
  539. 19:18process. It would require immense
  540. 19:20distrust, but it fosters distrust as if
  541. 19:22the stakes didn't feel high enough.
  542. 19:24Secondly, I don't know any way any other
  543. 19:28way to say this, Megan, other than there
  544. 19:31is a truth in the world and I believe in
  545. 19:34it. Maybe one day I'm going to get old
  546. 19:36and adult and I'll start believing all
  547. 19:37sorts of fancible things about the
  548. 19:39world. But I do hope no one lets me run
  549. 19:41the country when I do that. And you know
  550. 19:43whatever world I happen to invent in my
  551. 19:46own head might be quite lovely. But I do
  552. 19:48hope we don't use that to make public
  553. 19:49policy. The point is there's no
  554. 19:51foundation other than truth. You can't
  555. 19:54solve a problem unless you can describe
  556. 19:56it truthfully.
  557. 19:58You can't fix something unless you know
  558. 20:01what a thing is. And our political
  559. 20:03discourse has become unmed from truth.
  560. 20:06And this is yet another symptom of that.
  561. 20:09So all of the good work that people like
  562. 20:11you do, Megan, as a former public policy
  563. 20:13student, as a former teacher, as a
  564. 20:15future policy maker, it only works if
  565. 20:17you start with the truth. Otherwise, all
  566. 20:19you're doing is feeding your own
  567. 20:20imagination and you're not actually
  568. 20:22helping anyone. And I think each of us
  569. 20:23is born in this world with a deep
  570. 20:25obligation to help others around. This
  571. 20:26really makes me mad. I'm now going to
  572. 20:29put the economist hat back on and just
  573. 20:31make the case a different way. We can
  574. 20:33list the club of countries where the
  575. 20:36leader points to the chief statistician
  576. 20:38and says, "Hey, you know what? Could you
  577. 20:40just make up some nonsense for me
  578. 20:42because I want to fool the electorate."
  579. 20:44And this again gets to the point. These
  580. 20:46statistics are fundamentally about
  581. 20:47democratic accountability. If in fact we
  582. 20:50did have high levels of illegal voting,
  583. 20:53we should fire the secretaries of state
  584. 20:55who allowed that. But if we didn't, we
  585. 20:59shouldn't because we want to keep
  586. 21:00highquality elections continuing in our
  587. 21:03future. So the quality of our elections
  588. 21:05is on the line. But let's think about
  589. 21:07the club of countries. So Argentina has
  590. 21:10falsified its inflation statistics for
  591. 21:12years. Who wants to invest money in
  592. 21:14Argentina when you don't know what the
  593. 21:16inflation rate actually is? Who wants to
  594. 21:18buy inflation index bonds from the US
  595. 21:21government, which is an important source
  596. 21:22of funding of our enormous national
  597. 21:24debt? If today they're lying about the
  598. 21:27election, tomorrow they could lie about
  599. 21:28the inflation rate. Greece blew up in
  600. 21:32our memories during the financial
  601. 21:34crisis. It blew up because its budget
  602. 21:36documents were basically being
  603. 21:38falsified. And at some point, everyone
  604. 21:40figured it out and said, "We don't want
  605. 21:41to hold Greek debt anymore." foreign.
  606. 21:43Greece had a wrenchingly painful
  607. 21:47depression. Russia does this. Tinpot
  608. 21:50dictators do it. So at the simplest
  609. 21:52level, just like list the club of
  610. 21:54countries that do this, Russia and
  611. 21:55Argentina and Zimbabwe and Greece and
  612. 21:58ask yourself, do you want to walk down
  613. 21:59that path and discover if we can be the
  614. 22:01only ones who get out of it? Okay. It
  615. 22:04seems pointless and dumb and like this
  616. 22:06is where Oh, you got me ranting now,
  617. 22:08Megan. But I'm going to admit something.
  618. 22:10I've become a small C conservative. I
  619. 22:12mean that I think the foundations of
  620. 22:15American prosperity are in the strength
  621. 22:16of our institutions. And if we were
  622. 22:18doing terribly, that would give us a
  623. 22:20really strong argument for let's rip
  624. 22:21everything apart, let's fire everyone at
  625. 22:23the Census Bureau, let's redraw the
  626. 22:25election districts, blah blah blah. But
  627. 22:27if instead we're the most prosperous
  628. 22:28country in the history of the world,
  629. 22:31then the chances that if we rip
  630. 22:32everything down, we end up better. That
  631. 22:34seems like a really bad bet. Look, I
  632. 22:36apologize to folks at home. I never want
  633. 22:37to rant about politics. I never want to
  634. 22:39tell you what your politics are, but I
  635. 22:41do want you to be aware of the dangers
  636. 22:43that this present moment give us all.
  637. 22:46You got anything to You must have
  638. 22:48thoughts here, mate.
  639. 22:49>> No, I mean, I think you I think you
  640. 22:50captured all of it. I think uh I I I I
  641. 22:54think we don't know, right? I almost
  642. 22:55can't imagine. It's just bad. I know
  643. 22:58it's going to be bad. Um
  644. 23:00>> you just want to wrap the whole thing in
  645. 23:01caution tape and say don't do this.
  646. 23:04>> Yeah. And and again, I mean, I think
  647. 23:05I've said this before, but it's like at
  648. 23:07a time when so many people want to be
  649. 23:10improving things, it feels like we're
  650. 23:11just gonna work have to work so hard to
  651. 23:13get back to where we were. So, so much
  652. 23:16repair. And I agree that this is one of
  653. 23:17the kind of scarier inflection points
  654. 23:21>> in a road full of them.
  655. 23:22>> Well,
  656. 23:22>> Megan, maybe you can tell me something
  657. 23:23really happy just to just to brighten us
  658. 23:26both up. [laughter]
  659. 23:28>> I can I'm going to share some
  660. 23:30statistics. This is from a census. I was
  661. 23:33on my whale watch today and I saw
  662. 23:35between 19 and 20 whales. And if folks
  663. 23:38at home have never been on a whale
  664. 23:40watch, the marvel, the the wonder of
  665. 23:43these amazing creatures, the beauty and
  666. 23:47the sense of our insignificance and the
  667. 23:50beauty of the world around us. Get
  668. 23:52yourself on a whale watch and rediscover
  669. 23:55your sense of wonder.
  670. 23:56>> And if you're at all seasick like me,
  671. 23:59make sure you bring some Dramamine. But
  672. 24:01I agree. I've been well I've been well
  673. 24:04watching. It is It is probably one of
  674. 24:06the most wondrous things you can see and
  675. 24:09do. That's for sure.
  676. 24:11>> And maybe our homework is each of us can
  677. 24:13discover a little bit of wonder in our
  678. 24:16own lives.
  679. 24:17>> You know, you go outside, you see the
  680. 24:18dandelion, and you realize every single
  681. 24:20one of them is a work of art. Now,
  682. 24:21Megan, I think you might have some news
  683. 24:23for us.
  684. 24:24>> I do. So, before we go, I wanted to
  685. 24:27share some news. This is actually my
  686. 24:30final episode of the professor is in. I
  687. 24:33have absolutely loved working with
  688. 24:36Justin helping get Platypus Economics up
  689. 24:39and running. I'm also really excited
  690. 24:42about some of our new team members,
  691. 24:44including one of our wonderful new
  692. 24:46producers, Augusta, who's going to be
  693. 24:47joining Justin with a series starting
  694. 24:50next week. I am going to be returning to
  695. 24:52my roots in education. Speaking of the
  696. 24:56importance of democratic institutions, I
  697. 24:59have long believed that America's public
  698. 25:01schools are one of its backbones of its
  699. 25:05democracy and its prosperity. And I'm
  700. 25:08actually going to be working with local
  701. 25:09public schools in my hometown of
  702. 25:12Jacksonville, Florida.
  703. 25:13>> I was so sad when Megan told me she was
  704. 25:16leaving. She's been part of Platypus. I
  705. 25:18just want to share this with the friends
  706. 25:19at home. Megan began this journey. She
  707. 25:22started working with me when she was a
  708. 25:23master's student and then we we met for
  709. 25:25coffee and we started plotting this
  710. 25:27crazy idea that became platypus
  711. 25:28economics and she's been there every
  712. 25:30step of the way and I did have a little
  713. 25:32cry when she told me she was leaving but
  714. 25:34the thing that made it okay is that
  715. 25:38you're off to make the world a better
  716. 25:39place and do the things you believe in
  717. 25:41and um Megan the hundreds the thousands
  718. 25:44of people the tens of thousands of
  719. 25:45people who've enjoyed having you as a
  720. 25:47part of this I get to channel everything
  721. 25:50they might feel and say just an enormous
  722. 25:53enormous thank you. You're an incredible
  723. 25:56talent. You're going to do amazing
  724. 25:57things for the world and um our
  725. 26:00community just wants to say a big thank
  726. 26:01you.
  727. 26:03>> Thank you. Thank you, Justin. Thank you
  728. 26:06to our audience and letting me join
  729. 26:09along for this. [music] Um I hope that
  730. 26:11you have enjoyed our episodes. I hope
  731. 26:13you have learned something.
  732. 26:16And I would be remiss as a producer if I
  733. 26:19didn't remind you to like and subscribe
  734. 26:22to Justin and Platypus Economics
  735. 26:25everywhere you can find us. We just hit
  736. 26:28100,000 subscribers [music]
  737. 26:29on YouTube. Very exciting there. And a
  738. 26:33thousand subscriber paid subscribers
  739. 26:34[music] on Substack. But if you'd prefer
  740. 26:37an audio only format, you can also find
  741. 26:39us on Apple Podcast, Spotify, wherever
  742. 26:43you listen to podcasts. Big thank you to
  743. 26:46the platter pals at home. [music] Huge
  744. 26:47thank you to you, Megan. And just a
  745. 26:49reminder, folks, stay curious. I'll see
  746. 26:52you next time.

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