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Weekly Forex Forecast: EURUSD, XAUUSD, DXY, GBPUSD, XAGUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, BITCOIN & More! — Transcript

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0:00Next week is a massive week in foreign
0:02exchange with no less than five interest
0:04rate decisions coming up. And one of
0:05these is the ECB on Thursday. And we go
0:08into this meeting with Euro area growth
0:10slowing down and French bonds continuing
0:12to sell off as the cost to service
0:15French debt continues to spiral. All of
0:17which is going to put pressure on the
0:18ECB to soften their rate hike stance.
0:21And it puts euro shorts as one of the
0:23top themes once again heading into next
0:25week. And as we head into another BOJ
0:26meeting on Friday, where the BOJ are
0:28expected to hold interest rates, one of
0:30the things I'll be looking out for is a
0:32hawkish surprise with Japanese inflation
0:34metrics now back at the BOJ's target
0:36level. And as we head into next week,
0:38crude oil continues to remain strong,
0:39putting Canadian dollar longs and US
0:42dollar longs on my radar next week
0:44alongside Japanese yen longs. So for
0:46those of you new to the video, my name
0:47is John Fortune. I've been trading
0:48markets for over 18 years. And in
0:49today's video, I'm going to share with
0:50you my trading plan for next week,
0:52including the key buying sell zones in a
0:54number of forex pairs. And I'm also
0:55going to show you how I'm going to
0:57navigate multiple interest rate
0:58decisions next week, and why I think the
1:00Japanese yen long theme is the number
1:02one thing to focus on heading into next
1:04week. Okay, so let's have a look at the
1:06DXY coming up next week. We do have FOMC
1:09on Wednesday, and the Federal Reserve
1:10are expected to hold interest rates at
1:124%. Now, what's interesting here is
1:15going into this week, we do have a
1:16massive bull flag setting up. On the
1:18lefth hand side, we've got the daily
1:19time frame and these blue levels are
1:21simply the monthly candles overlaid. And
1:23on the right hand side, the 4hour time
1:24frame and we have the weekly candles
1:26overlaid. So if you look over here, you
1:28can see 1 2 3 4 5 weeks up and then this
1:31pullback into the 200 period moving
1:33average. This is technically speaking a
1:36major bull flag. It's a very very
1:37bullish pattern and the market is
1:39positioned for a major move to the
1:41upside. Now the issue when you go into
1:43an interest rate decision is if the
1:46market is positioning in one direction
1:48and in this case if the Federal Reserve
1:51disappoints
1:53then you can actually see a very very
1:55strong move in the other direction. So
1:56going into next week what I'm going to
1:58show you as I go through the video is
2:00there are a number of markets that I'll
2:01be looking at trading dollar strength
2:04versus these currencies if we get a
2:06bullish outcome. And there are other
2:08markets we can look at which we can
2:09trade dollar weakness against some of
2:12the other currencies like especially the
2:14Japanese yen if we end up with a bearish
2:16outcome from FOMC. So whilst we can have
2:19opinions on the markets and we can kind
2:20of make projections ultimately we want
2:23to be as traders able to take advantage
2:25of the opportunities that are coming
2:28either way and the US dollar going into
2:30next week is fairly neutral and that
2:32does allow us to play FOMC both ways.
2:40Okay, so let's have a look at the
2:41portfolio selection heading into next
2:43week. The Canadian dollar is at the top
2:44of the list because of the rally that
2:46we're seeing in crude oil is supporting
2:47the Canadian dollar through the balance
2:49of payment. So as demand increases for
2:52Brent crude, we are seeing the Canadian
2:54dollar seeing more demand as well. So
2:56the Japanese yen is number two.
2:57Personally speaking, going into next
2:59week, I do actually favor Japanese yen
3:01longs over Canadian dollar longs purely
3:03because the wind of the monetary policy
3:06is in the sales of Japanese yen long
3:08because the BOJ want to see the yen
3:10higher and so do the US monetary
3:11authorities. And alongside those two
3:13currencies, I am also interested in New
3:15Zealand dollar long plays. But these two
3:18are the two that I'm primarily
3:19interested in, especially the yen. And
3:20to the short side, the number one short
3:22heading into next week is the euro. We
3:24also have the dollar as number two to
3:26the short side. But this really is going
3:29to depend on the outcome of FOMC because
3:31as I just showed you, yes, we are
3:33getting a kind of neutral dollar. We're
3:35seeing a correction, but it's a
3:36correction in the context of an overall
3:38bull flag in the weekly time horizon.
3:40So, if we get the right kind of bullish
3:42catalyst, this is going to be a really
3:44good opportunity to actually look for
3:45that big breakout in the dollar. But
3:47that is ultimately almost certainly
3:49going to be decided on the FOMC event
3:51next week. So alongside the euro and the
3:53dollar, we also have the Swiss Frank. We
3:55could also look at the pound because we
3:57have these kind of EU majors pooling at
3:59the bottom here with the euro, the frank
4:01and the pound. But the primary two that
4:03I like are euro to the short side and
4:04the Swiss frank. So as we go through
4:06today's video, I'm going to be looking
4:09at Euro CAD to the downside, also CAD
4:11Frank to the upside. We will also look
4:14at Euro yen to the downside, Frank yen
4:16to the downside. And there will be a
4:18couple of opportunities to short the US
4:21dollar if we get a disappointment on
4:22FOMC and that would of course be versus
4:25the Japanese yen, the Canadian dollar
4:27and then New Zealand dollar. But if we
4:29get a bullish outcome, then I would
4:31prefer to look for long opportunities in
4:32the dollar visav the weaker currencies
4:35like the euro, like the frank and you
4:37know maybe the Aussie and also the
4:39pound. So that's what I see heading into
4:41next week. I do think the two biggest
4:42opportunities are going to be in the yen
4:44pairs and then also in the dollar pairs
4:47post FOMC on Wednesday. And remember
4:49guys, if you enjoy these videos or you
4:50feel you get any value whatsoever out of
4:52them, be sure to like, share, and
4:54especially to subscribe because it
4:55really helps the channel when you do
4:56that. And a big thank you to everybody
4:58who does that on a regular basis, to
5:00everybody who hypes the video on a
5:01regular basis on mobile as well, and of
5:04course everybody who has subscribed to
5:05the channel so far.
5:11Okay, so let's have a look at Euro
5:12dollar and we are in the hedge dash
5:14platform here and we're in the hedge
5:15dash platform to look at the buy and
5:17sell zones for next week. The buy and
5:19sell zones are between these two levels
5:20here. This is the sell zone. This is the
5:22buy zone and these are on a volatility
5:25basis where this asset becomes
5:28overbought or oversold next week. So
5:31it's very very simple. We use these to
5:33sell markets as they turn overbought if
5:36the market is weak or we have a
5:37directional bias to the downside. And if
5:39we have a stronger market, we are
5:41looking to buy dips from the buy zone.
5:43And you can also the market pulls back
5:45like this, especially next week. If you
5:47have an interest rate decision, you get
5:48a breakout. This would become a profit
5:51taking zone down here. So essentially
5:54selling between the range and then
5:56buying it back. So it's a profit taking
5:57zone. So going into next week based on
5:59the portfolio selection Euro dollar is a
6:02short or do nothing for me. I cannot buy
6:04Euro dollar. If we get weakness from
6:06FOMC, I'm still not going to go and buy
6:09the euro because it's also one of the
6:10weaker currencies. Yes, we would see a
6:12bounce and some profit taking probably
6:14coming in from euro shorts, but I would
6:16rather go and short the dollar versus
6:18something like the Japanese yen. So for
6:20me personally going into next week, I'm
6:22going to be looking at for one of two
6:24things. either we get a pull back into
6:25the sell zone and this would have to be
6:27post FOMC on Wednesday assuming the
6:30catalyst was not super super bearish for
6:32the dollar. This would be the area I'd
6:34start to look for shorts. Now when we
6:36jump over to the multi charts we can
6:38look at a specific uh key resistance to
6:42kind of time any shorts from in the sell
6:44zone. But what I would really like next
6:46week for Euro dollar because the euro is
6:49one of the top shorts is if we start to
6:51pull back and we get a bullish outcome
6:55from FOMC for the dollar. This would be
6:57a really good market to look for a
6:59breakout trade in because this is
7:02essentially one big bare flag. So I
7:04really like Euro dollar heading into
7:06next week but I am short or do nothing.
7:08So pull up the multi charts here. You
7:09can see we're just shy of the 200 period
7:11moving average in the weekly and I do
7:14think we are, you know, on balance going
7:15to come and test that and probably even
7:17the 50 period moving average in the
7:18monthly. So, what I would like to see is
7:20I'd like to see this pull back. The sell
7:21zone is at the 1.13041.
7:24We also have a really nice prior swing
7:27low right here at the 1.13244.
7:31So, if we get this kind of A, B, and a
7:33C, then this is where I'd be looking to
7:36time a potential short from for at least
7:38one or two days. That generally speaking
7:40on a short-term basis is the profit
7:42target that I look for. So, it trades
7:44into here. I short it a one or two day
7:45reversal. But again, because of what
7:48we're seeing in the US dollar, so we've
7:50got that big weekly bull flag. If we get
7:52a breakout from this area, this is where
7:54we could actually see a really strong
7:56move to the upside or in this case in
7:58the euro a strong move to the downside
8:00at least to the 1.1030.
8:02But I would say most likely back down to
8:04the bottom of this monthly channel here.
8:07So that's what I see in Euro dollar.
8:08It's a short or do nothing for me next
8:10week. Next is dollar Swiss Frank. Now
8:12again just like the euro I am favoring
8:14short opportunities in the Swiss Frank.
8:16So, US dollar Swiss Frank to the upside
8:19is going to be a go-to currency pair for
8:20me if we get a bullish reaction from the
8:23dollar on FOMC next week. The buy zone
8:26starts at the 0.8169.
8:29So, any pull back into this area post
8:31FOMC, this is where I would begin to
8:34look for a potential reversal to the
8:36upside. And again, this would be on a
8:38kind of non-event. So if they hold
8:41interest rates, they don't say anything
8:43too exciting and we just kind of see US
8:46dollar frank, you know, meander down
8:48over the next day or so, then I would
8:50look for that potential bounce. If we
8:53get something which is very very bearish
8:56for the US dollar and we start see this
8:58just rocketing down like this, instead
9:00of stepping in trying to buy the dip
9:02down here, I would rather go and short
9:04something like yen, which is on the
9:06verge of a really strong selloff. So
9:08there is a tiny bit of nuance here that
9:10you have to take into next week which is
9:11that if it's kind of a neutral outcome
9:13or slightly neutral to bullish you can
9:15still see this kind of sell off and in
9:17that scenario I would look for the one
9:18or two day reversal. So that's what I
9:20see in US dollar Swiss Frank. And if we
9:22jump over to the multi charts you can
9:23see we've got this pull back to the
9:244hour 200 period moving average. It is
9:26the daily 50 period moving average but
9:29just below here we have the buy zone at
9:31the 0.8169.
9:33And look at this prior monthly high.
9:35This is a really nice place if we start
9:38to pull back to look for a one or two
9:40day bounce to the upside at least. But
9:42also if we are going to get that US
9:44dollar breakout higher then this is
9:47something that has plenty of room to the
9:49upside to the 0.84760.
9:51And I do think that this is the kind of
9:54pair you could also trade on a breakout.
9:58So even if it doesn't come down test
9:59this, if it just kind of moves sideways
10:01on FORMC and then you get a bullish
10:04reaction, you can look for that first
10:05pullback and a continuation higher. So
10:08US dollar Swiss Frank alongside Euro
10:10dollar to the downside are my two top
10:13pairs if we get dollar strength from
10:16FOMC next week. Next is Aussie dollar.
10:18Now on balance, I am going to be looking
10:20for Aussie dollar shorts in the event
10:22that we get a bullish outcome from FOMC.
10:25The sell zone starts up at 0.7104,
10:28but I'm probably going to filter any
10:32moves into the sell zone next week. And
10:34if we jump over to the multi charts, you
10:36can see why. Because the issue with
10:37Aussie dollar is if we end up getting a
10:40bearish outcome from FOMC and this does
10:43start to push higher, we are actually
10:45forming quite a strong monthly flag.
10:48Now, this can fail, you know, especially
10:49if it starts to break down below these
10:51lows on a bullish dollar catalyst. it
10:55can fail. But if we don't get that, then
10:58any kind of short up here is sort of
11:02shorting into a monthly kind of penant
11:05or bull flag. So on that basis, the only
11:07trade I would really like to look for
11:09next week is because we've broken down
11:12below the daily 200 period moving
11:13average and we're pulling back to the 4
11:15hours. I would like to trade Aussie
11:18dollar shorts really only on a breakout.
11:21So what that means is if FOMC comes out
11:23and this is doing this and by that time
11:25you know maybe it's holding the 50
11:27period moving average you know a kind of
11:29breakdown like this because between
11:31Monday and Wednesday you're probably
11:33statistically speaking although not
11:34guaranteed going to see the dollar pairs
11:36just chopping around doing nothing and
11:38as it does that it's going to form a bit
11:39of a range and a bit of a base. So, as
11:41we get that FOMC, if it comes out and
11:43it's dollar bullish, then I would
11:45consider looking for a breakout down
11:48below the lows next week of wherever the
11:49kind of weekly range is. So, I do like
11:52Aussie dollar, but I'm not going to
11:54short it from the sell zone. I'm only
11:56going to look on a breakout to the
11:58downside and a push away from the 4hour
12:01200 period moving average. So, that's
12:02what I see in Aussie dollar next week.
12:04It's a short or do nothing for me. Next
12:06is pound dollar. Now, a little bit like
12:08Aussie dollar, I don't think I'm going
12:09to be interested in mean reversion
12:11trading this next week because we do
12:13have FOMC and when you have interest
12:15rate decision weeks or big news events,
12:17very often breakout trades actually tend
12:19to work better and mean reversion trades
12:22are generally better in between those
12:24events and you know most of the time we
12:25don't have major news events. The next
12:27week we've got five major interest rate
12:29decisions. So on balance with pound
12:31dollar I do favor long opportunities. We
12:34have had the pound outperforming
12:36recently. It is relatively fairly strong
12:38and also we did add jobs unexpectedly
12:41last week and we are seeing inflation
12:42going up as well. So I don't really want
12:44to short the pound. It is something I'd
12:46be looking at to the long side versus
12:48the dollar next week if we get a bearish
12:50outcome on FOMC for the US dollar. And
12:52for those of you who watched last week's
12:53video, you'll know I highlighted this
12:55kind of bull flag setting up. We did
12:57have the follow-through leg and now it's
12:59kind of consolidating above the 200
13:01period moving average. So, what I'd be
13:03looking for next week, especially if you
13:05take into account, we had a big
13:06engulfing week right here off of the
13:09bottom of this kind of wedge pattern. If
13:11we get a very bullish outcome for the
13:13dollar next week on FOMC and we start to
13:15break out of that weekly bull flag in
13:17the DXY, then this will be at risk of
13:21actually breaking out of this pattern
13:22because it's right near the low. So on
13:25that basis, again, I probably would want
13:27to avoid the mean reversion trade just
13:29in case all of these longs get
13:30liquidated and you could see a much
13:32stronger sell-off. So going into next
13:34week, I'd prefer to wait for this into
13:36Wednesday. It's most likely going to do
13:38something like this. And then again, if
13:40we get that bearish outcome for the
13:42dollar and that big dollar bull flag
13:44fails, if it fails, we're probably going
13:46to see a pretty strong liquidation down.
13:48And that's where I'd be looking for the
13:50breakout trade in pound dollar. And in
13:52this case, you know, back up to the top
13:54of the what's building an ascending
13:57triangle here because we're getting
13:58higher lows and we've got this kind of
14:00flat top. But again, for those of you
14:02who want a weekly near-term target, that
14:04would be the 1.3494,
14:07which is the profit taking zone next
14:08week for pound dollar. Next is US dollar
14:10CAD. Now, US dollar CAD in terms of
14:12portfolio selection is right up there as
14:14one of the top pairs. However, it could
14:16be a little bit tricky to trade next
14:18week just because if we look at the
14:19economic calendar, we also have an
14:21interest rate decision on Wednesday out
14:23of Canada. They're expected to raise
14:24rates. So, a double interest rate
14:26decision on Wednesday up until
14:28Wednesday. The US dollar CAD pair is
14:30probably going to be quite
14:31unpredictable. So, this is a pair that I
14:34would only look at trading post FOMC
14:37once we've got the second interest rate
14:38decision out of the way on Wednesday. We
14:40jump over to Hedge Dash. You can see
14:41we're also oversold in a rolling daily
14:43basis. This is actually a Monday Tuesday
14:46reversal play. So a Monday Tuesday
14:47reversal play is where a market sells
14:49off say into the sell zone and it
14:51doesn't bounce for one or two days that
14:53week and in fact I think we had two in a
14:55row. Very rarely do you see three. So
14:57most likely we're going to get a Monday
14:58Tuesday reversal bounce in this. That is
15:00a trade in of itself. However, what I'd
15:03really like to see is I'd like to see
15:04this kind of neutralized going into
15:05Wednesday and then the Bank of Canada
15:07come out raise interest rates and it
15:09would have to be kind of a non-event.
15:11you know, it's expected. So maybe
15:13nothing happens. And then if we're in
15:15this area in and around the sell zone or
15:18between where we close the week and the
15:21start of the sell zone, anywhere in this
15:23area, if we're consolidating and we get
15:26a bearish outcome on FOMC, this is
15:28definitely going to be a pair that could
15:30really sell off post FOMC next week
15:33because of what we're seeing in crude
15:35oil. Now again when we look at fruit all
15:37later you have the same issue which is
15:40that there is a risk of some kind of
15:43rhetoric or even some kind of
15:45breakthrough in negotiations either with
15:46Iran or even with Ukraine and Russia and
15:49all of this you know could see a sharp
15:50selloff in crude oil. So you do have
15:52that risk if you are trading long crude
15:54oil or any kind of long crude oil
15:56derivatives but overall I will be
15:58looking for shorts only next week in US
15:59dollar CAD. And if we quickly pull up
16:01the multi charts, any kind of pull back
16:03into the sell zone, you can see we also
16:05trade into the 200 period moving average
16:07in the 4 hours, the 50 period moving
16:08average in the 4 hours, and we also have
16:10a prior stairst step low of this weekly
16:13candle over here. So over 1.494,
16:17we become overbought next week. And the
16:201.41347 41347 is a nice area to start to
16:23look for the turn again in US dollar CAD
16:26rather than jumping in with the mean
16:28reversion trade in a week where we have
16:30so much volatility probably is what's
16:32going to happen. I would rather try and
16:34catch this on the way down on a breakout
16:36post FOMC. So that's what I see in US
16:38dollar CAD. It's a short or will do
16:39nothing for me next week. And finally,
16:40we have US dollar yen before we move on
16:42to Bitcoin and Ethereum. Last but not
16:45least in this case, because US dollar
16:47yen is actually my favorite pair going
16:49into next week, we have started to break
16:51out and in previous videos I did
16:54highlight this rising wedge. We broke
16:56out and then we formed this bare flag
16:59and we started to break down. This is
17:01ended up being a head and shoulders even
17:03on the right shoulder here for this bare
17:06flag. And I am short on the break of
17:08this low down here and also shorted
17:11again last week in real time with
17:12members. and I have a stop loss, a break
17:14even on the second one, a tight one. I'm
17:16hoping this kind of pushes straight
17:17down. If it pulls back, I'll still look
17:19to add another position on any kind of
17:21breakdown next week. So, the reason
17:23we're straight over to the multi charts
17:25is because I have no interest in mean
17:27reversion trades in this next week. The
17:29only thing with US dollar yen is we had
17:31this kind of rising wedge breakdown and
17:34we stalled right here. Now, in previous
17:37sell-offs, we didn't do that. We just
17:39went straight down. It may be because we
17:41have the BOJ and FMC next week and you
17:43know it's in this position where this is
17:45an A B and a C for a bull flag higher.
17:48But if we take out the lows and there's
17:50a very good chance we do that because
17:52this kind of a pattern is a bearish
17:53pattern then usually not only is this a
17:56bearish pattern, this usually precedes
17:58pretty strong liquidations. So a rebreak
18:01of the lows would be where we could see
18:04the next strong move down. And you can
18:05see we've got this nice big weekly
18:07candle over here. we would be coming and
18:09expecting to come down to the prior low
18:11but there's a very good chance in my
18:13opinion we're heading for the weekly 149
18:17let's say 150 level roughly in US dollar
18:19yen so all of this is on the verge of
18:22happening next week and because this
18:24market can move 3% I mean it can move
18:27all the way down to this low before FOMC
18:30because it can do it in a couple of days
18:32so keep an eye out on this because this
18:34could move before FOMC if not look out
18:38for a hawkish surprise on Friday because
18:40we've just seen inflation back to the
18:42BOJ's target and they are expected to
18:44hold interest rates. There is room there
18:46for a potential hawkish surprise. But I
18:49would keep an eye on this from as early
18:50as Monday just because this type of
18:53pattern here, it can actually preede
18:55strong liquidations if we take out this
18:58daily low over here. US dollar yen is
19:00absolutely a short or do nothing for me.
19:02And if anything, I'm really just focused
19:03on where can I add to this position for
19:06a move down to the prior low and to the
19:09150 level in US dollar yen next week.
19:11Okay, so let's have a look at Bitcoin
19:12and Ethereum. Now, in previous videos, I
19:14highlighted the 84,000 level. We tested
19:17this once and twice. And I said to you
19:18guys, unless we trade through this, I'm
19:20not going to be interested in long
19:21positions. And we failed twice. So to
19:24me, now we're losing the 50 period
19:26moving average in the daily, this opens
19:28up the 200 period moving average down
19:30here at 73,000. So, what I would like to
19:32see going into next week, if I zoom in
19:34here, I'd like to see this pulling back
19:36on the 4hour time frame into the moving
19:38averages and if we get a bullish outcome
19:41from FOMC, I would be interested in
19:43looking for kind of bare flag breakdown
19:46in Bitcoin. And I would be targeting
19:48roughly the 73,000. For argument sake,
19:52this is probably the more conservative
19:53target is the prior monthly low down
19:55here. Let's say 75,000. So, for me,
19:58that's what I see. you know, a potential
19:59bare flag into 81,000 and then a
20:02breakdown on a bullish outcome from
20:04FOMC. That to me is the opportunity
20:07heading into next week if we get that
20:09dollar bullish catalyst from FOMC. Next
20:12is Ethereum. Now, Ethereum is almost
20:14Bitcoin from the future because if you
20:16look at this here, this has already lost
20:17the 50 and it's already nearly at the
20:20200 period moving average. So, that's
20:21kind of what I was talking about
20:23happening in Bitcoin, you know, going
20:24into the next couple of weeks. Again,
20:26this is most likely going to respond to
20:28what happens on FOMC. If the dollar
20:29starts to rip higher and we get risk
20:31off, then we're going to see a sell-off.
20:33And if the dollar, for whatever reason,
20:35FORMC ends up being doubbish. And you
20:38would think with what's going on in
20:39crude oil and rates that the Federal
20:40Reserve are going to have to come out
20:42hawkish. But we also know they may be
20:45inclined to try and help the yen higher.
20:47Who knows what's going to happen? But if
20:49they disappoint, then of course, you
20:51know, we could see these ripping higher.
20:52For me personally, you know, this would
20:54have to reclaim the 50 period moving
20:56average for me to get interested to the
20:58upside. So, specifically for next week,
21:00the setup here for me would be a
21:02pullback towards the 200 period moving
21:04average and that bare flag breakdown in
21:08the 4 hours down to roughly the 2,150,
21:11which is the 200 period moving average
21:13in the daily. So, that's what I see in
21:14Ethereum, just like Bitcoin is kind of a
21:17dollar bullish setup for me personally
21:20heading into next week. Okay, so let's
21:22have a look at some of the top non- US
21:24dollar pairs setting up next week nicely
21:25in forex. Euro CAD is a short or do
21:28nothing for me. I cannot buy this market
21:29under any circumstances. This is a
21:32little bit oversold going into next
21:33week. So I wouldn't be surprised to see
21:34that Monday Tuesday reversal. The sell
21:37zone next week is at the 1.5807.
21:40And this is a rip and flip setup that we
21:43cover in the GMT strategy guide which
21:45you can get a copy of in the description
21:47in the pin comment below for free. And
21:49this setup here, this rip and flip,
21:51usually I'd look for a one or two day
21:53reversal. Again, because we're starting
21:55to get some more directional moves, you
21:56could look for more of a swing trade
21:58down to the lows. But either way, it's a
22:00short or do nothing for me next week.
22:01So, if we pull up the multi charts, you
22:03can see the 1.56123.
22:06This is almost certainly where we're
22:07heading down to. So, any pullback in
22:09this area is essentially, in my opinion,
22:12an opportunity to start to look to
22:13position down to the 1.5612.
22:16Now, this is definitely something I
22:19don't want to be looking for any even
22:20short-term long opportunities because if
22:23this continues to liquidate and breaks
22:25the 1.56123,
22:28this is a trend reversal. I mean, we
22:31have this bounce, we have this lower
22:32high, and a rebreak of this low could
22:34see a very strong move. I wouldn't be
22:36surprised to see the 1.5276
22:38taken out on the weekly time frame. So,
22:41going into next week, I probably don't
22:43want to jump in at the lows. It's a
22:44little bit extended, but any bounce in
22:46this pair, whether a mean reversion
22:49short, you know, roughly from the 158576
22:52in the sell zone or a kind of counter
22:54trend bare flag break. Either way, I'm
22:57looking for that move down to the
22:581.56123.
23:00Next is Euro New Zealand. This is a
23:01short or do nothing for me. And the sell
23:04zone starts next week at the 1.9828.
23:07Another rip and flip setup. So this is
23:10where we push into the sell zone as we
23:13are selling off and we push into the 20
23:16period moving average in this case for
23:18that one or two day reversal. But again,
23:20I think there's much more downside in
23:22this pair. And why do I say that? If we
23:23pull up the multi charts here, you can
23:25see we've been inside this kind of
23:26penant pattern. So at the very least, I
23:29would imagine we're coming down to
23:30retest these lows. But if this breaks,
23:33and this is not going to continue like
23:34this forever, if this breaks, then the
23:371.86375 86375 is on the cards here in
23:40Euro New Zealand. We do have an interest
23:42rate decision next Wednesday. So what I
23:44would like to see is I would like to see
23:46this pulling back and then on the New
23:49Zealand interest rate decision you can
23:50look for the breakout that first
23:52pullback and a continuation to the
23:54downside in Europe. It's a short or do
23:56nothing for me. I cannot buy this market
23:58next week. Next is Euro Yen straight
24:00over to the multi charts because again
24:01primarily interested in breakout trading
24:03the M pairs because of their volatility.
24:05But any pullback I mean look at this.
24:07This is just a big bare flag setting up.
24:09We've had this kind of consolidation and
24:11now we've broken out. So any pullback
24:13towards the 20 50 period moving average.
24:15This is where I'd begin to look for the
24:17turn and the breakdown in Euroyen after
24:21a near-term consolidation has plenty of
24:23room down to the 166.182.
24:26So in my opinion, the market is
24:29definitely set for a big move higher in
24:32the Japanese yen. This would be US
24:33dollar yen lower, euroyen lower, all the
24:35yen pairs lower. And because the
24:37opportunity in the yen is substantial,
24:40it does merit more attention in my
24:42opinion over the next couple of weeks.
24:44So the sell zone is at the 177.610.
24:47I don't think we're going to pull all
24:48the way back here because we had this
24:49selloff last week. So primarily looking
24:52for the bare flag into the 50 period
24:54moving average, 20 period moving
24:55average, and the rebreak lower in
24:57Euroyen next week. Next is CADF. This is
25:00a buy or do nothing for me. I cannot
25:01sell this market next week. What I
25:03really like about this is the buy zone
25:05sits right at this ascending channel. So
25:08going into next week, any pull back into
25:10this area is going to be a great
25:12opportunity to start to look for the
25:13turn in CAD Frank. And if we jump over
25:15to the multi charts, you can see there's
25:17a really nice gear of support down here
25:18at the 0.58277.
25:21And at the same time, we would be
25:22pushing into the buy zone at the 0.58420
25:26and into the ascending channel. So I'm
25:29going to be looking for a pullback in
25:31CADF next week. If it pulls all the way
25:33back to here, great. That's where I'd be
25:35looking for a potential buy the dip. If
25:37it just pulls back, you know, halfway,
25:39then this is also a market you can look
25:42for that rebreak and kind of bull flag
25:44setup to the upside. Now, we're taking
25:46back the 20 period moving average in the
25:48monthly. This actually opens up the
25:510.62810.
25:52So, there's quite a number of pairs
25:54here, as you can see, which have plenty
25:57of room to go. And that's because a
25:58number of these have been in corrective
26:01choppy patterns for a significant period
26:03of time. So that's why I see CADF Frank
26:05is a buy or do nothing for me next week.
26:07Next is Frank Yen. So straight over to
26:08the multi charts here because look at
26:10this pattern breaking out here. We've
26:12got an inside week. So contraction of
26:15volatility and it's right on the
26:17ascending trend line. So going into next
26:20week, this is setting up. I mean, look
26:22at this in the weekly time horizon. a
26:24really really nice weekly bare flag with
26:27room all the way down to the 175. So I
26:30really like this chart going into next
26:31week. I do think there is massive
26:34potential here. And what I would like to
26:35see is I'd like to see this kind of
26:37break consolidate and then I'd be
26:40looking for the break lower. So keep
26:43your eye on this heading into next week,
26:45especially if we come and take out last
26:48month's low because that is the base of
26:51this weekly bare flag. And if we take
26:55out last month's low this month, then
26:58this monthly candle is going to flip
27:00from green to red. And this is where you
27:02can see quite a strong liquidation when
27:04these candles flip, these big candles
27:06flip, you know, from one side to the
27:08other. So keep an eye on that. I think
27:10the 175 is easily on the cards in Frank
27:13yen. It's right at top of my list for a
27:14short next week. And last but not least,
27:16we have Aussie yen. Aussie yen pulled
27:18back last week and we got this really
27:21nice selloff down and this is setting up
27:24somewhat of a bare flag. But the major
27:26breakout would be below the 109232.
27:28And you can see there's pretty much
27:30nothing but air down below the prior
27:33high and kind of where we're sitting and
27:35the 104. So I think there's a very good
27:38chance we're pulling back to the monthly
27:4020 period moving average at least and
27:43also you know the 10240 below that
27:46there's a very good chance we go you
27:48know from this resistance down to this
27:50resistance. So the key breakout is below
27:51the 109.232.
27:54This would be something I would be
27:55especially interested on either FOMC or
27:59the BOJ on Friday. You know we may just
28:02kind of move sideways into Friday. So,
28:04keep an eye on the 109232
28:07and ideally what I would like to see is
28:09I'd like to see this breaking below
28:11here, consolidating, and then looking
28:14for that rebre to the downside. So,
28:16that's what I see. Keep Aussie yen on
28:18your radar for next week because if we
28:20start to sell off and especially if we
28:21take out this monthly low here, this is
28:24where we could really start to
28:26accelerate to the downside towards that
28:27monthly 20 period moving average around
28:29the 104, let's say 50 roughly. Okay, so
28:32let's have a look at crude oil before we
28:33wrap up the video with gold and silver.
28:35Crude oil is a buy. We're bouncing off
28:38the daily moving average here and we've
28:39actually set up this kind of penant
28:41pattern and we've broken out of it.
28:43Target is up at the 109.380.
28:45So it's the bottom of the penant, top of
28:47the penant. So any pullback in crude oil
28:50next week is going to be an opportunity
28:52to look for a long into the 10696 which
28:55is the monthly high. That is actually a
28:57massive breakout. I mean, we have this
29:00one, two, three, and then we pull back
29:02and we make this higher low. This is a
29:05massive breakout. If we break through
29:06the 10696, this thing could really take
29:08off. The only thing that you have to
29:10contend with, as I said earlier, is the
29:12fact that monetary authorities do not
29:14want to see this. And there is every
29:16chance, especially as we start to trade
29:18through the 10696, they try and smash it
29:20back down. If they're able to, remains
29:23to be seen. You know, maybe they can
29:25just do it temporarily. Who knows?
29:27Either way, it's a massive bullish setup
29:30against the interests of the monetary
29:32authorities. And so, there is most
29:34likely profit potential here, but you do
29:36have to be nimble and keep an eye out
29:38for any rhetoric or kind of attempts to
29:41push crude oil lower if it starts to
29:43really take off. So, I'd look for a
29:45pullback towards the top of the penant
29:47and I'd be looking for a run up to the
29:49106.960.
29:50The 109.38 is the technical target of
29:53the penant. But above the 106.960, you
29:56know, it's at least worth having some to
29:58trail because this thing could really
30:00rock it once it breaks the 106.96.
30:08Okay, so wrapping up the video with gold
30:10and silver. Starting with gold. Gold is
30:12a short or do nothing for me. We are
30:14starting to see this kind of bare flag
30:16down below the inside month low and
30:19we're breaking out of this kind of wedge
30:22pattern. The technical target is down at
30:243,906
30:26and we also have a prior key of support
30:28down here at 3950. So what I would like
30:31to see is next week a pullback towards
30:34the base or the bottom of this penant
30:36potentially even a retest of the inside
30:39month low. But any pullback into this
30:41area is the opportunity to look for the
30:44next move down into the price support
30:46low at the 3950 area. And the next key
30:50area of support to the downside because
30:52this is really not necessarily a support
30:54because it's a low. Right? If you've got
30:56a market coming down like this, this is
30:58not really support. It's kind of
31:00support, but you wouldn't want to buy
31:01this. This is kind of support because
31:03this was the price which pushed price
31:05higher in the past in an uptrend. So, I
31:08think there's a good chance we're coming
31:09down to 3886.
31:11But just in terms of short term, any
31:14kind of pullback here down to the 3950
31:16is what I'll be looking for next week.
31:18And last but not least, we have silver.
31:19So, in prior videos, I noted this kind
31:21of bare flag. And the move was down to
31:24the prior low over here, which we've now
31:26taken out. But again, this is not a key
31:29support because this is actually a low
31:31in a series of lower lows. So lower lows
31:34are not great support because they are
31:36although technically support they're
31:38support in a downtrend and very often
31:41price breaks through them. So now we've
31:43taken out the prior low. I would be
31:44looking for another pullback simply
31:46another bare flag setup towards the 50
31:48period moving average here in the 4hour
31:51time frame. And the next move down would
31:53be towards the kind of wedge low which
31:56is all the way down at roughly the $50
31:59mark because there isn't really any key
32:01support now below this low until we get
32:03down to 45. So for me, you know, any
32:06kind of pullback in this area, I think
32:08the 50 psychological number is the next
32:10key target to the downside. We could
32:13very well end up going lower in silver.
32:15And when you have a parabolic run, you
32:18can actually get 80% plus breakdowns
32:20from those kind of moves, which would
32:22actually have a target down here at
32:23roughly 35. So, are we going to get
32:26there? It's possible. But, you know, for
32:28the near term, I think the $50 mark is
32:31certainly on the cards, especially if we
32:33get a pullback and we get a bullish
32:35outcome from FOMC. silver shorts would
32:38be a great opportunity in my opinion
32:39because of the space to the downside
32:42without any kind of key support before
32:45we run into the 50 level. So that is it
32:48from me for today guys. As always I hope
32:49you enjoyed today's video and if you did
32:51why not consider joining us in the GMT
32:53trading room each day where I look at
32:55the best markets as well as sharing
32:57real-time setups that I'm personally
32:59looking at trading with members [music]
33:01as part of our GMT training program.
33:03Don't forget you can also get a twoe
33:06free trial to the Cutting Edge Hedge
33:07trading app used in today's video by
33:10heading over to www.hedgdash.com.
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33:15platform is included with every GMT
33:18[music] membership.

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