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Week 9 | Thursday | Known vs. Knowable: Chris Watts — Transcript

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0:19[music]
0:35[music]
1:12[music]
1:20[music]
1:29[music]
1:34[music]
1:40[music]
1:43>> Nobody there.
1:45I am bereft of feline companionship once
1:48again.
1:49Once again on a Thursday, I'm Morgan
1:52Wright.
1:53This is Crime Reconstructed. Man, we
1:54have got a lot of comments already. So,
1:56thank you guys for hopping in there and
1:58doing comments. Um you guys have seen
2:00that. We were talking about
2:03Yeah, his story changed several times.
2:05Uh Laura Lee got some. I've been through
2:07that hail stuff. Oh, yeah. That is no
2:09fun down there in Oklahoma where the
2:11wind comes sweeping down the plains.
2:14Very great musical. All right. Uh you
2:15say for remember being Houston for
2:17training and they had hailstorms. Yeah.
2:20Goth but I'll tell you what, those uh
2:22dent paintless dent repair people, they
2:24make a killing on storms like this.
2:27Uh all savvy. I think I said it right.
2:30All savvy. We're in Connecticut. I have
2:33an uncle in Mystic.
2:35Uh let me see here. I'm safe for now.
2:36Weather season for hail and tornadoes
2:38the worst in years. Yeah. Um
2:41We've got in-laws. My my in-laws and
2:43oldest boy still live in Southwest
2:45Kansas. So, we've been watching the
2:46storms that go through there.
2:48Hi y'all to Casefile 365. Hey, y'all.
2:52Uh let me see. Hello, the sun is out
2:54finally. All right, Teresa. Yay.
2:56Hallelujah. Hello there.
2:58Good morning all from Gail Holly. Good
3:01morning to you, too.
3:03We're getting so many things. Good
3:04morning, Gail. Welcome. Welcome.
3:05Welcome. Me, too. CST. All right. God,
3:08we got through all of that stuff. So,
3:09what are we going to do today, guys?
3:12Today, we are going to talk
3:15about
3:16uh Thursday. Thursday is known versus
3:18knowable.
3:20And then tonight will be our Thursday
3:21night masterclass.
3:23And then uh Friday, we will do the
3:26synthesis, wrap things up. So,
3:28been an interesting ride. I've been
3:30watching your comments. Uh and just so
3:32that you know, okay and other folks, I
3:33did look into the issue. I did have it
3:35turned on. I just wasn't going back far
3:37enough. The comments in the live stream
3:39turn on, but it takes sometimes 24 hours
3:41to get there. So, I went back and
3:42checked. They're all displaying. So,
3:44when you go back and look, the comments
3:45are in the live stream. Um they are
3:48displaying. So, problem solved. Check.
3:52And then uh couple other things, really
3:53neat things, too.
3:57In my hands, I'm actually submitting a
3:58proposal to the
4:00uh Center for Public Safety and Justice
4:02at the University of Virginia, the
4:04Howard and Carol Safer Foundation. Doing
4:07some really cool stuff. Going to do some
4:10stuff around AI. Um I can't tell you
4:12right now, but it is in the uh proposal.
4:15Um hello from Oregon. Carrie Lynn, who?
4:18Hello there.
4:21Oh, yes. Thank you for the chat replay
4:22investigation.
4:24We're like the FBI. We get our man. So,
4:26some neat stuff there and I did get
4:27reached out to. So, I was in uh North
4:30Carolina what, 3 weeks ago on the
4:32Saturday for the senior leadership
4:33conference. Out of that now, I've been
4:34invited back to come address the counter
4:36drug folks
4:37uh in Greenville. They're doing a
4:39combined South Carolina, North Carolina.
4:41So, I'm going to go address them
4:43sometime in August. This is getting fun.
4:46What's fun about this is I talked to
4:47them about the same stuff I'm talking to
4:48you guys about, just different ways to
4:50look at things, right? So, let's talk
4:51about this. Let's get into the known
4:53versus knowable today.
4:56And they're Oh, wait. Hold on. There we
4:57go. We have a cat sighting. There she
4:59is. She Rosebud just came across. What
5:01she does, she hops up on my desk and if
5:04her heating pad's not turned on, she
5:06hops up on my desk, sits here, waits for
5:07me to finally figure it out. Oh, then I
5:09got to go back turn her little heated
5:11pad on even though it's 64° right now.
5:14Uh her sensitive little paws apparently
5:16require
5:18heat
5:19for her to um do that stuff. Hi,
5:22everyone. Susan Schorba.
5:24576. Thank you. Welcome. Welcome to
5:26everybody. So, hey, before we get
5:28started though, one I do just one quick
5:30thing and you know what's because I'm
5:32about to post the link. So, what are we
5:35what are we talking about?
5:43>> [music]
5:44>> Yes, news to you. Case intake. If you
5:46guys want to supply a case that I look
5:48at and I will be doing somebody's case
5:50for next week. I'm not going to tell you
5:51who it is yet cuz I haven't fully
5:53decided. We still have a couple
5:54stragglers coming in. So, but we'll
5:57definitely take one of those cases and
5:58work on them. And yes, so if you guys
6:00want to do it, I just posted the link.
6:02Oh, I'm sorry, it didn't go through.
6:03Hang on.
6:05Boo ya. There it is. There's the link,
6:07right? So, if you want to do that link,
6:08just go there.
6:09You do the work. I am not going to take
6:11stuff out of chat and do it. Sorry,
6:13folks. Uh just
6:16too much work for me.
6:17So, don't don't take it wrong, but uh if
6:19you can do just a little bit of that, so
6:21it goes right into a form, so I have one
6:22place to go track this stuff down.
6:24My mind's like a bookshelf. It only
6:25holds so many books. You put one on,
6:27another one falls off. All right. So,
6:28and before we get started, let's talk
6:30about why we are doing this today. We're
6:32doing it for these four people. Shannan
6:34Watts and the unborn baby Nico, Bella
6:37Watts age 4, Celeste Watts age 3. That's
6:40why we do this. Today, we honor them
6:43with our analysis.
6:45Okay. So, let's get to talking about
6:47this today. The known versus the
6:48knowable.
6:50And I did all real quickly, too. Uh we
6:52had a couple folks ask they weren't
6:53getting email notifications. I have cut
6:55back because I realized, too, I was
6:57getting tired of seeing all these emails
6:59from other Substacks that I follow. I'm
7:01going, "Man."
7:02So,
7:04uh I cut back on a lot of that stuff and
7:05actually I cut back a lot cuz I'm not
7:07posting the article. I'll post one
7:08article a week, but it'll be I have
7:11written five articles, six articles
7:12actually, Monday through Friday and then
7:14the Thursday masterclass.
7:16But I will post that uh at the end of
7:18the week on Friday at 3:00 p.m. It's
7:20It's already staged. It's ready to go
7:21out, but it'll have uh a summary of each
7:24day.
7:25And then if you want to go deeper on
7:26that, it'll have a link and then you can
7:28go read the article. There. Uh so, I'm
7:30trying not to do it. If you guys still
7:32want me to send out emails or have the
7:34system automatically send out emails to
7:36say, "Hey, I've got this scheduled." or
7:38that it's actually been posted. That's
7:39what it is is when this gets done
7:40recording, I go into Substack and I have
7:43my show notes. So, I put my show notes
7:44in there and then it turns it into not
7:46only recording on that, but turns it
7:48into the podcast. So, I'm trying not to
7:49send out multiple emails, but we'll see
7:52how it goes. Oh, got to get a quick
7:53drink from the tactical water bottle.
8:00See that right? Got the tactical knife
8:02back here.
8:04Camo.
8:06Plate carrier.
8:08Uh all sorts of they call Molly vest. I
8:11can hang all sorts of things
8:13off of that. So,
8:15we have our tactical water bottle
8:16intact. All right, let's get into this.
8:20In the Peterson case, guess what, guys?
8:22Both of them, the known column was
8:23frozen.
8:25I mean,
8:26it was pretty much done. Scott Peterson,
8:27Drew Peterson. Two investigations, two
8:30victims, two different decades and the
8:32same structural failure. The system
8:35could not grow its own record. It was
8:37frozen.
8:39What investigators knew on day one
8:41was roughly what they knew when the
8:43gavel came down
8:45in court, the guilty verdicts. The
8:47knowable, everything that must have
8:48happened, everything the evidence
8:50implied, but couldn't confirm stayed out
8:51of reach. That's the knowable.
8:53Not because investigators were careless,
8:56because the evidence, excuse me, that
8:58existed couldn't be translated into the
9:01evidentiary record the system required.
9:04Because the evidence that existed
9:06couldn't be translated into the
9:07evidentiary record the system required.
9:10Now, guess what? The Watts case inverts
9:13that completely.
9:15Over 6 months, August 2018 to February
9:182019, the known column expanded four
9:22times.
9:23Each expansion came from the same
9:25source.
9:26Christopher Watts himself, the POS who
9:29is better uh
9:31would be better served by being room
9:33temperature.
9:35Over 6 months,
9:37that expanded each time because of Chris
9:39Watts, right? Four confession
9:41iterations.
9:42As you're seeing there in the graphic,
9:43four confessions iterations.
9:46Each one more complete and more damning
9:48than the last. The known kept expanding.
9:51By the end, the known column in this
9:52case is more detailed than almost any
9:55domestic homicide in the public record.
9:57That's in the public record.
9:59And yet there are still a question that
10:01reconstruction cannot answer. That's
10:02what we're here for. What what do we
10:04know? What do we don't know?
10:06Three levels of knowledge. Known knowns.
10:08Second level knowledge is known
10:10unknowns. Third level of knowledge is
10:12unknown unknowns.
10:14You know what you know, you don't you
10:16don't you know what you don't know, and
10:17then you don't know what you don't know.
10:21Famously said by Donald Rumsfeld, the
10:23Secretary of Defense during a conference
10:25one time. But but he was right. I mean,
10:27we are dealing with knowns, unknowns.
10:31We know what we know. We know what we
10:32don't know.
10:34So, there's still a question though that
10:36reconstruction cannot answer. Today we
10:37trace these four iterations. We track
10:39exactly what entered the known column at
10:41each stage. What do we know? What
10:42happened at each stage, right? Cuz the
10:44first stage is the cooperative suspect.
10:47That's the performance. As you saw here,
10:49the chief performance, the cooperative
10:51suspect. Before I walk through the
10:53iterations though, let's establish
10:55something about how the known versus
10:57knowable framework applies differently
10:59here than it has in the other cases
11:00we've talked about.
11:02So, in a normal application of the
11:04framework, the subject of investigation
11:06is separate from the information source.
11:10You have the event which actually
11:11happened.
11:13And then you have the evidence the
11:14investigation produces about that event.
11:18Witnesses, physical evidence,
11:19surveillance, cell records. The known
11:22column grows as the investigation
11:24gathers and verifies.
11:26In the Watts case though,
11:29the primary information source about
11:30what happened is the man who made it
11:32happen.
11:34It's not investigators going to a
11:36warehouse and finding uh
11:38homemade concrete anchors.
11:40It's not uh investigators
11:42uh
11:43um
11:45exhuming the body. No.
11:47This is
11:49everything comes from Chris Watts,
11:50right? He simultaneously is the most
11:53knowledgeable person in the world
11:55about August 13th, 2018, and the person
11:58with the greatest incentive to control
11:59what the known column contains. As long
12:01as he controls what goes in there, he
12:03can control his destiny.
12:05Every account he gives is both a
12:07disclosure and a concealment document.
12:09Remember, that's why when you get into
12:11court, you swear to tell the truth, the
12:12whole truth, and nothing but the truth.
12:17I am late. So sorry. There is a penalty
12:19for that, and your penalty is you have
12:21to take a look at the my cat.
12:24So, here's the picture of Rosebud. All
12:25right, there you go. You have been
12:26penalized. You can bask in her
12:29awesomeness and her cuteness as we go
12:31back into what we're talking about
12:32today. There you go.
12:35Oh.
12:36Veteran 1313, I'm late, too.
12:39Which branch, Veteran 1313? That will
12:42depend upon the punishment you get. I
12:43mean, if it's Marine or Army, you're
12:45going to be doing push-ups. If it's
12:46Navy, I'm going to make you go get me a
12:48cup of coffee. And if it's Air Force,
12:51uh I'm going to make you eat at a uh
12:53two-star restaurant instead of a
12:55three-star. That's what I'm going to do.
12:57The your punishment depends upon your
12:59branch, right?
13:00So.
13:02>> [laughter]
13:03>> So cute. Yes, the cat is so cute. Me?
13:05No, the cat. I think she means you. Yes,
13:07or he means you. Can't tell. Veteran.
13:10Coast Guard. All right, Semper Paratus.
13:12Always prepared.
13:15I got that right, didn't I?
13:17Fact, one of my friends, a lady named
13:19Martha Coit, wrote the book that uh
13:21the Guardian was based on that Kevin
13:23Costner
13:25played a rescue swimmer.
13:27So, da da da da da. Semper Paratus.
13:29Thank you very much.
13:31Uh 14 watching. Maybe give the live a
13:33like to move it along in the algorithm.
13:34Yeah, you know what happens is we have
13:3520 now. Uh and actually I want to
13:38recognize my folks over on Substack.
13:40There's Stacy, Jackson, Richard Marks,
13:42Phil Hannum, and Robert Bartel. So, hey
13:45guys. Welcome to you guys, too. I'm
13:48trying to uh And the other thing, too,
13:50you don't see is that there's views on
13:52there's additional views on Substack.
13:54There's additional views on uh X that
13:57may not be showing up uh here. I think I
13:59I think I get all of them here. But uh
14:01anyway.
14:02You did great movie. I know. Very good.
14:05So, anyway.
14:07Catch me up. Really quick recap. Okay,
14:09well, no, we just we just getting
14:11started about known and versus knowable.
14:13So, in the Peterson case, um the known
14:15column was frozen.
14:17Uh in this case though, everything that
14:20went into the known column kept
14:21expanding because of Chris Watts.
14:23There's your quick catch-up. I hyped his
14:26last video. Thank you so much, hype.
14:28Whoop whoop. I don't know what kind of
14:30music we played. I should have walk-out
14:31music now for my videos, apparently. No,
14:33I'm just I'm a little farm boy from
14:35Kansas. We keep this simple. No fancy
14:37sets. I'll do some stuff with graphics.
14:38But um just just want to keep it just
14:41want to keep it real, people. Keep it
14:43real. All right. So, what happens,
14:45right? Every account he gives is both a
14:48disclosure and a concealment document.
14:50The known column grows not because not
14:53just because the investigators gather
14:54evidence. It grows because the subject
14:57under a sequence of different conditions
14:59and different pressures
15:02decides at each stage what he's willing
15:04to put into the record. First it was on
15:06the grieving husband. Then he comes in,
15:08takes the polygraph. Then he fails the
15:09polygraph. Then it's well, Shannan was
15:12uh was uh smothering my kids.
15:15All right. So, he's already adding to
15:16the known column. He's already changing
15:18it. Only one person knows the real
15:19story. That's him.
15:21Understanding that dynamic changes how
15:23you read, you know, each iteration,
15:24right? So, these aren't just successive
15:26confessions. They're a series of
15:27decisions about how much of the known
15:30column to fill. How much he's making
15:32under conditions that change each time.
15:36Oh, that's why your show's so good.
15:37Well, thank you. Thank you very much.
15:39Thank you. In fact, you know what I will
15:40do? I will thank you very much with
15:41polite golf applause.
15:43>> [cheering and applause]
15:43>> Thank you very much.
15:45Um uh I appreciate that. No, I just I
15:48This is about having fun, guys. But it's
15:50about doing some good work here. All
15:52right. So,
15:53let's talk about that, right? Here's
15:55what goes into the known column after
15:56the first 48 hours. Shannan Watts
15:59arrived home from Phoenix at
16:01approximately 1:48 in the morning
16:04on August 13th.
16:06Documented on a neighbor's doorbell
16:07camera. Her luggage was inside the front
16:10door. Her phone was in the house. She
16:12was 15 weeks pregnant with the couple's
16:14third child.
16:16By 7:37 that morning,
16:195 and 1/2 hours later,
16:21she was gone. So were Bella, age 4, and
16:24Celeste, age 3.
16:28Uh with the knowns Okay, with the knowns
16:30pouring in so quickly, I wonder what was
16:32also going on in the investigative
16:34realm. So, a good question.
16:35Um
16:37Remember we talk about there's also
16:38informational entropy. You move from
16:40order to disorder. You get information
16:42overload. You can't cognitively process
16:44all that stuff. But uh
16:46that's good question though. What's
16:47going on in the investigative realm? I
16:49think what they did is they got off to a
16:51slow start. Why did they get off to a
16:53slow start? Because he's the grieving
16:54husband. He's the cooperative suspect.
16:56He's uh standing in front of the TV
16:58going, "I want my crocodile tears."
17:00Nothing there, right? "I want my kids
17:01back. I want my wife back."
17:03So, that kind of slowed the roll on that
17:05a little bit.
17:08So, but what happened? To your point,
17:09what did he do? He called 911 himself.
17:12He reported his family missing. Oh, my
17:14family's missing even though I killed
17:16them.
17:16Right? He gave investigators a version
17:19of that morning.
17:20He and Shannan had argued about the
17:22marriage. She left with the girls. He
17:24didn't know where they went.
17:26Okay. She left. Didn't take her phone.
17:29Her luggage is still there.
17:32I think the keys were still there, too.
17:34He didn't know where they went.
17:36Well, okay. That's easy to figure out.
17:38The same camera that saw her come home
17:39at 1:48 in the morning should have seen
17:41them leave. The neighbor's camera that
17:42saw his truck backing up at 5:30 in the
17:44morning should have seen them leaving.
17:46These are things These are easy things
17:48to figure out.
17:50Right? What goes on in the What goes
17:52into the known column now? Family
17:53missing. Last documented contact at 1:48
17:56a.m. when she got home. Husband's
17:58account on record. Husband is
18:00cooperative.
18:02What's in the knowable column?
18:04Everything material.
18:06Where they went. What happened between
18:081:48 and 7:37.
18:11Whether the account Watts gave
18:12investigators was true. That's in the
18:14knowable column. We know what's in the
18:16known column. That's in the knowable
18:18column.
18:22Man, it's a beautiful day. I did my
18:24workout this morning. Hit the old
18:25Peloton again.
18:27Uh should be outside. But man, so much
18:29stuff so much stuff to do.
18:31Um
18:32Oh, love the name.
18:34>> [laughter]
18:35>> Thanks.
18:36I think we're having a love fest here.
18:38Folks, we're here to study. Pay
18:39attention, class.
18:41Don't be passing notes in class.
18:43I'll have to have I'll have to have
18:44somebody uh take roll. Oh, and I forgot,
18:47what's the punishment for Coast Guard?
18:48You know what the punishment is for
18:49Coast Guard? You don't have to be last
18:51anymore. Guess who that is? It's Space
18:53Force. Space Force is last now.
18:55Actually, technically in DOD, when they
18:57talk about the order of flags, Army is
18:59always first.
19:01Thank you very much.
19:04Bless you.
19:05Why are you sneezing over there? Just
19:06making sure she's not coughing up along
19:07with all of this uh pollen and stuff
19:09going on. All right. So, the gap
19:12uh the gap between these two columns on
19:14August 13th is the entire investigation
19:16now between what's known,
19:18last sighting,
19:19and what's knowable. Everything else in
19:22between 1:48 and 7:37.
19:25Now, here's something to think about.
19:27As we move through the iterations, the
19:29different versions of this, the known
19:31column on August 13th isn't thin because
19:33investigators failed.
19:36It's thin because on day one of any
19:38missing person case, the known column is
19:40almost always thin.
19:42You're you're trying to collect data.
19:43You you knock on doors. You're starting
19:44to call people. What do you know, right?
19:47Starting to do records checks, database
19:49checks, you know.
19:51Checking to see if other agencies
19:53you know, check hospitals, right? Check
19:55with other agencies, surrounding
19:56agencies. Uh any anybody show up, you
19:58don't know, they haven't identified,
19:59could have got amnesia, don't know.
20:02Huh. Glad I'm not last. I will tell you
20:04I will give props to the Coast Guard.
20:06When you see some of those Coasties out
20:08there hopping off and onto those narco
20:10boats and that dude in the full tactical
20:12gear and he is banging on that thing,
20:14that is some badass stuff, my friend.
20:16That That is like Oh, yeah, America. I
20:19love that stuff.
20:21Uh
20:22my brother-in-law is retired Coast
20:24Guard, Panama City Beach. I'll tell you
20:25what, when you look at some of these
20:26things what they go out and do, the
20:28rescue swimmers, you see what they were
20:29doing through these hurricanes uh and
20:32storms, even President uh Trump
20:34recognized one of the rescue swimmers, I
20:35believe, at the uh White House during a
20:37recent hurricane, right? Recent uh
20:40uh
20:42weather, you know? And it's just I I
20:43tell you what, my hat goes off to all
20:45those people who train.
20:47Back to our regularly scheduled podcast
20:48now, right? So, here's what I want you
20:50to think about. It's thin because that's
20:52where it always is on these missing
20:53person cases. When you When you allow
20:55him to frame it that way, remember he
20:56got away with framing it as a missing
20:58person, he's a cooperative suspect, the
21:00grieving husband, all that good stuff,
21:02right? The evidence gathering takes
21:03time. It does. The interviews take time.
21:06It take you can't just hey, come here,
21:07download from your chip to my chip,
21:09okay, interview's done. No, you have to
21:10ask questions, you have to write things
21:11down. You get an interview, then you do
21:13a follow-up. You go out, oh, I need to
21:15ask come back and ask a couple more
21:16things, right? All of this takes time.
21:19The physical processing takes time. The
21:21gap between known and knowable at the
21:23start of an investigation is normal.
21:25That's the way I
21:26in the investigations I worked, whether
21:28it was something simple as I'd get
21:29called out, drive-by shooting, not that
21:31those are simple, but you go out there,
21:33what do we know? You start to collect
21:35evidence, right? Um
21:36One thing I've always found when you
21:38watch television, you watch these events
21:39unfolding, it was like the recent
21:41attempted assassination at the White
21:43House Correspondents Dinner uh with that
21:46major idiot.
21:48Um
21:49but we If you look at things like that,
21:52all you have to do is look at the and
21:54analyze the initial reporting coming out
21:56versus after it's all settled, what is
21:57the actual reporting? At first it was
21:59the shooter was down, the shooter was
22:01shot, or one person's dead, one person's
22:03in custody, right? You've got all of
22:04these different things. Then what it
22:05boils down to, Secret Service agent took
22:07a round in the chest, Kevlar and a phone
22:10uh stopped the round. Shooter was taken
22:12into custody. Now, eight shots were
22:14fired at him, nobody hit him.
22:17Too bad. Um
22:19Folks, we got to get to the range more
22:21often. Why? Because you got civilians
22:23and citizens around, too. You got to
22:24make sure that your your good with your
22:27your targets. So, anyway, it's thin
22:29because it takes time. Physical
22:30processing takes time. The
22:31investigation, that gap is normal,
22:33right? What isn't normal?
22:35What distinguish now this Watts case
22:37from the Peterson case is that the gap
22:39was closed from the inside.
22:41On August 15th, under examination from a
22:44polygraph
22:45Watts broke when he was shown the
22:47picture.
22:48He broke. I woke up and she was
22:50strangling the kids. Don't you feel
22:52sorry for me? It went from I don't know
22:53what happened to it now. Uh
22:56uh I woke up and she was strangling the
22:58kids.
23:01Gail Holly, Laura A, abs fantastic. They
23:03came to my rescue after Hurricane
23:05Michael, wonderful guys. I'm telling
23:06you.
23:07When you see the weather they go out
23:09into and and and now they're they're
23:11drug interdiction missions and the
23:12things that they're doing uh around the
23:14Gulf of America and places like that,
23:16great stuff. So, all right, veteran
23:181313. There you go, you got all your
23:21props, okay? You Coast Guard people, I
23:23might even elevate you up past the Navy,
23:25uh the Department of the Navy, right?
23:27Because it's the Department of the Navy
23:29who then uh are provide transportation
23:31for the Marines, as my son-in-law, a
23:33Marine formerly on active duty, says.
23:36All right.
23:37Close from the inside. He woke up, uh
23:39she was strangling the kids. Okay, so
23:41let's let's let's understand what's
23:43going on here.
23:44Cuz this account is one of the most
23:45instructive single moments in the entire
23:47case for anyone trying to understand how
23:50subjects manage information under
23:52pressure. Remember
23:54when the hu- when humans are under
23:55pressure, when they're under stress,
23:57your performance does not get better. It
23:59gets worse. That goes back to the
24:00analysis I did on the Nancy Guthrie
24:01case, all the television interviews I
24:03did. I kept saying, tell me
24:05what what circumstances would have to
24:07exist inside the home to where
24:09a burglary that went wrong and the
24:11burglar thought it was less risky to
24:13kidnap somebody than it was to flee?
24:15Because we don't we don't get better
24:17under stress, we get worse under stress.
24:18That's why when you see
24:20Tier One operators, Special Operations
24:22Forces.
24:23Now, you got to be careful, Special
24:25Forces is Green Berets.
24:27Um Green Berets, a lot of them are
24:28Rangers.
24:29Green Berets are Special Forces.
24:31Everybody else what they call SOCOM,
24:32Special Operations Command or Special
24:34Operations Forces, SOF, SOF. So there
24:38you go, there's your uh there's your
24:39learning for today, Special Forces
24:41versus Special Operation Forces.
24:46And I know a few Green Berets and if I
24:48don't get it right, they'll just come
24:49they'll kidnap me and break my neck.
24:52All right, let's see here. Uh
24:54Watts was out of his element, Drew
24:56Peterson was well-versed. Well, of
24:57course Drew Peterson was well-versed, 29
24:59years as a cop. He knew how this was
25:01going to go.
25:02He knew how to manage Stacy.
25:04That's what he was doing.
25:07Did they search the area where the oil
25:09drums were before he basically confessed
25:11during the polygraph or after or both?
25:14Good question, Emily Dill. Welcome to
25:17the show, as they say. Um
25:21I
25:22I don't know I I'd have to go back and
25:23look just for sure to say which one's
25:25contemporaneous, but definitely his
25:26confession led them to where it was, but
25:28I think they were closing in on it, too,
25:29because
25:30um they knew where he worked.
25:33Um and there's also I believe there was
25:35GPS on the truck. So, what but we'll
25:37have to get into that. That's great.
25:39That's That's good question, veteran
25:401313. Thank you.
25:42Thumbs up. All right, uh poor Wolf
25:45Blitzer. He's wondering he didn't have a
25:47heart attack being within several feet
25:48of the shooter.
25:49Um yeah, I mean
25:52normally reporters, the the good ones,
25:54they don't want to be the story, they
25:55don't want to be part of the story, but
25:56sometimes you are, especially that. Now,
25:58the one thing that I thought was really
25:59tacky, and I think it was somebody from
26:01Ukraine
26:02was
26:03swiping all the wine bottles off the
26:05table. Pathetic, people. You're taking
26:08advantage
26:09of a major security incident to become a
26:12thief.
26:15Anyway.
26:17Gail Holly says, I think it was after.
26:22Darn pollen.
26:23Hm.
26:30>> [laughter]
26:32>> Boy, I shouldn't have the windows open,
26:33but man, it it is so nice.
26:37I apologize for that, folks. Apologize
26:39for that.
26:40Lord, I apologize.
26:42Larry the Cable Guy.
26:47Um
26:48not sure, but they were the 20-ft tall
26:50oil drums, yeah.
26:52Doubt they would have looked at them, or
26:53if they did you don't know where the
26:55bodies would have been at that point, so
26:58timing was everything on this, right?
27:00So, let's go back [clears throat] into
27:01this, right? So
27:03Here's what's going on here, right? What
27:05he's trying to do is we want to
27:06understand how subjects manage
27:08information under pressure. Now, he's
27:09not confessing, he's redirecting. He's
27:11not confessing to it, he's trying to
27:13redirect. I didn't do it, but she was
27:15doing it, so the only reason I said that
27:17I didn't she's the mother of my kids and
27:18I didn't want to make her look bad. So,
27:20for 2 days he maintained position of the
27:22cooperative, innocent, grieving husband.
27:26He's given investigators a story in
27:28which he has no involvement
27:30no knowledge, she left, I don't know
27:32what happened, no culpability.
27:34The polygraph has just shown his body is
27:37responding in ways that make that story
27:39impossible to sustain.
27:41When I would do interview and
27:43interrogation, the purpose of the
27:44interview is to collect information so
27:46that I could develop the appropriate
27:47things to go in and do the
27:48interrogation. Interviews is you talk, I
27:51listen. Interrogations is I talk, you
27:53listen. My job and might say, hey, but I
27:55didn't no no no, don't want to hear yet,
27:56don't want to hear yet. During the
27:57investigation, they don't get to talk
28:01cuz every time they get to talk, they
28:03get to relieve stress. My job is to
28:04build up so much stress inside of you,
28:07you have no other way to to deal with
28:09that, that stress manifest so much
28:11inside of you, the only way to deal with
28:12it is to tell the truth. Only when
28:14you're willing to tell the
28:16Let's see here. Let's take a look at
28:17some of these uh comments here. Did he
28:19drop those girls in alive? No, he did.
28:21They were alive uh when they went in the
28:23oil wells. Ella um Marstead.
28:26Yep. Uh it's not that wasn't fake. Uh in
28:29fact, they they uh
28:30the original investigation, as they went
28:32back to, they found out that the girls
28:34were still conscious when he left the
28:35house with them.
28:37Yeah, and the [clears throat] guy that
28:37kept eating his salad while on the
28:39floor. Yeah, that's another one, too.
28:40We're talking about the people swiping
28:42bottles, eating a salad, another guy
28:43just kept eating, too, sat at the table.
28:46Let me see. I was wondering because I
28:47was trying to gauge how much perceived
28:49pressure he felt he had on him to create
28:51internal collapse. Well I think it
28:54once he was in for the polygraph and he
28:56and he even though they do the
28:57pre-interview and they tell you there's
29:00no surprises in a polygraph. There are
29:01no surprise questions in a polygraph.
29:03Having been through them, I can tell you
29:05there are no surprise
29:06even when they do full scope lifestyle
29:08polygraphs, when they do
29:08counterintelligence polygraphs, when
29:10they do polygraphs for positions of
29:12public trust, there are no surprise
29:14questions. What is your name? Is your
29:16name this, right? Or they they're
29:18polygraph questions are yes or no, so
29:20not like on TV.
29:21Okay, just answer the question. No, I
29:23don't know anything about it. Now, you
29:24answer every question yes or no. Is your
29:26name Morgan Wright? Yes. Do you live
29:29here? Yes. Are you this old? Yes.
29:33Then they will have you answer some
29:35questions wrong so that they can measure
29:37they can get a baseline for how you even
29:39even even if you know, you've been told
29:41to lie, even when you lie, there are
29:42physiological changes. So, those are all
29:45things that we can do. Let me see, um
29:48Ella, do we think Nicole will ever be
29:50looked into? I think she was more
29:51involved. Um
29:54And this is the first time I've seen you
29:56on here, so I don't know what you've
29:58heard before. So, a lot of the way crime
29:59reconstructed works is I'm not here to
30:01relitigate the case or reinvestigate. We
30:03take what's in the record and then we
30:05reconstruct it and we look at what are
30:06the teaching points out of this, what
30:08went right, what went wrong, where could
30:09the things have gone better. So, whether
30:11they will go back and look at her or
30:13not, chances are at this stage now,
30:15since we're talking about, you know,
30:172018,
30:18unless unless as in the Drew Peterson
30:21case to where
30:22Stacy Peterson
30:24goes missing, that then triggers the
30:27reopening of the Kathleen Savio case,
30:29unless you have something come up. The
30:31fact that it hasn't been filed um leads
30:34me to believe, based on uh experience,
30:36that no no charges are going to be filed
30:39in that case. So, that's just my two
30:41cents. The detectives handled that whole
30:42time period with him so well. Yeah, I'm
30:44telling you it's like I told you when I
30:45was interviewing that guy one time um
30:48that had uh fondled a 13-year-old
30:5012-year-old actually.
30:52Um you have to make it sound like hey,
30:54you have to be willing to throw up in
30:56your mouth, right? But, they did what
30:58they needed to do to keep him talking.
30:59Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, you're right.
31:01Yeah, huh.
31:02He's got to believe that he's leading
31:03them down the path when and and in
31:05reality they are leading him down the
31:07path.
31:08So, that's the good stuff, right? So,
31:11for 2 days he's maintained his position
31:13of cooperative innocent grieving
31:14husband. He's given investigators a
31:16story in which he has no involvement, no
31:18knowledge, no culpability. The polygraph
31:21has just shown
31:22that's not the case, right? He cannot
31:24maintain that denial that he was
31:25present. Can't do it anymore.
31:28He was present now. Why? Because he said
31:30he woke up and Shannan was smothering
31:32the kids.
31:35Now he's present. Before he wasn't
31:36present.
31:37So, that's a lie. We know that's a lie,
31:39right? So, before he wasn't present, I
31:41woke up, they were gone.
31:437:37, I don't know where they were.
31:45Now he says, "No, I woke up and she was
31:47trying to kill the kids." Well, now he's
31:49present. That changes everything, right?
31:52And so, uh
31:53he cannot maintain like say that denial
31:55that he was present. Now, the instrument
31:57has effectively closed that option. The
31:58polygraph did what it was designed to
32:00do, which was to force an admission
32:02against interest.
32:05So, he does the next best thing.
32:07He acknowledges presence. He
32:09acknowledges, "Yeah, something
32:10happened." And he redirects the action
32:12to someone who can't contradict him.
32:13Why? Cuz Shannan's dead.
32:16She's buried in a shallow grave out by
32:18the Anadarko uh oil fields, those oil
32:21storage drums.
32:24Let me see here, Gail. When I looked at
32:26the interview, it looked like the
32:27interviewer gave him the idea that he
32:28didn't do all the killing, allowing uh
32:30to confess to the murder of Shannan or
32:32Shannan. Yeah, and it's okay. By the
32:35way, Supreme Court has ruled trickery
32:37and chicanery by There's a word for you
32:39guys today, chicanery. Trickery and
32:41chicanery are okay in interviews.
32:45You can trick people. The police can lie
32:47to you. Yes, they can. As long as I
32:50don't coerce you or as long as I don't
32:52give you the information. For example,
32:55"Hey, you broke into the uh blue Pontiac
32:57four-door on Thursday night using a
32:59crowbar, didn't you?" "Oh, yeah, that
33:01was me." No. Did you break into a car?
33:04Yes. When was it? It was on Thursday
33:06night. What kind of car was it? It was a
33:08Pontiac. What color was it?
33:10Well, we got video of you doing it
33:11anyway. You might as well tell us. "I
33:13did. I broke into it. It was a blue
33:14Pontiac four-door. I used a crowbar."
33:18So, okay. You can you can do that.
33:21What you cannot do is
33:23People say, "Well, that's entrapment."
33:25Now, in
33:26entrapment is I have to You've already
33:27committed the crime. We're past
33:29entrapment. Entrapment is is I solicit
33:32you to commit a crime you otherwise
33:34would not have committed. In this event,
33:36he's already committed the crime, right?
33:38So, the polygraph effectively closed
33:40that option. So, he does the next best
33:42thing.
33:42He puts the blame on somebody who can't
33:44contradict him. 15-week pregnant Shannan
33:48strangling two children.
33:49Physically implausible. I didn't say
33:51impossible, I said implausible.
33:54He knows that.
33:55The polygraph examiner knows that.
33:58But, the account does something the
33:59grief performance couldn't do.
34:02You know what? It puts them in the room
34:03as a witness now, rather than a
34:06perpetrator. So, he's not yet the
34:07perpetrator. He goes from I don't know
34:09anything to I was there, but I didn't do
34:11it, she did it, right? So, we're going
34:12through phases now.
34:14So, if investigators accept this
34:16account, the murder of the girls becomes
34:18Shannan's crime and Watts' exposure is
34:20limited to whatever happened with
34:22Shannan.
34:24Which I think you were getting into uh
34:26uh Gail Halley. Um yeah, if if she
34:28killed the kids and he killed Shannan in
34:30response to her killing the kids,
34:32you might call that justifiable
34:33homicide. He was attempting to keep her
34:35from doing that or she fought him.
34:37As implausible, I didn't say impossible,
34:39but as implausible as it seems.
34:43Mhm.
34:44I'm going to have to go do a straight IV
34:45with some of this stuff.
34:47>> [clears throat]
34:48>> Uh just to
34:50w- wet the old whistle as they say here.
34:52So, he's not thinking about the truth
34:54now. You know what he's thinking about?
34:56He's thinking about the least damaging
34:57position he can establish given the
35:00information he can no longer withhold.
35:03He broke. He broke during the polygraph.
35:05He can no longer withhold that, right?
35:06So, what can he do? He redirects. What
35:09goes into the known column after August
35:1015th? Watts was present in the house
35:13when something happened. That is now
35:14known.
35:16Something happened to his daughters that
35:18morning. He has direct knowledge of
35:19where the family is.
35:21He acknowledges the marriage was in
35:23serious trouble. These things now go
35:24into the known column. What has shrunk
35:28is on the knowable column.
35:30We now know the perimeter.
35:32He's inside of it. He's no longer
35:34outside of it. He's inside the
35:35perimeter. The gap between known and
35:37knowable
35:39has narrowed not to zero,
35:41not yet, but to a question of how and in
35:43what sequence. So, it's one of those
35:45things I heard in court one time. Uh
35:47we're not arguing that you're a liar
35:49now, we're just arguing to what degree
35:51you are.
35:52That was an effective line used by a
35:53district attorney county attorney one
35:55time. I thought it was really good,
35:56right?
35:58And so, the question is
36:00uh has narrowed not to zero, but to a
36:01question of how and in what sequence,
36:03not whether he was involved. He's
36:05involved now. Now, the question is to
36:07what degree. This is the moment the
36:09investigation shifts from guess what?
36:11From find the family
36:13to build the case.
36:15Because
36:17um as I said in the Guthrie case, my
36:19analysis of that didn't make me popular
36:21in some circles, but I said it's no
36:22longer a missing person case. We have to
36:24treat this as a no body homicide.
36:27We have to treat it in order to build
36:28the case. The polygraph didn't produce a
36:30confession that could go before a jury.
36:33It produced an admission though that
36:35made the next question unavoidable.
36:38If Shannan didn't kill those children
36:40and she didn't, then who did?
36:43So, the third iteration adds almost
36:45nothing to the known column in terms of
36:47facts.
36:48What it adds though is finality.
36:51So, on November 6th, 2018, Watts entered
36:54a guilty plea.
36:55>> [snorts]
36:57>> Uh he was going to I mean, he could have
36:59wasted the taxpayers' money, gone to
37:01trial. He was going to get convicted. Uh
37:03I mean, he took the deal.
37:05You know, the plea was structured to
37:06minimize the statement of facts
37:07required.
37:09He closed the legal question without
37:10admitting substantially to the
37:12informational record.
37:14He is guilty.
37:15Five consecutive life sentences. There
37:18will be no trial,
37:19no testimony, no cross-examination of
37:22his account.
37:25Let me see, agree. I don't know what you
37:26agree with, but hey, I'm in agreement
37:29with your agreement.
37:31Uh remember, we got about a 30-second
37:32pending. I found out what was causing
37:34the hiccups the other day. I changed my
37:36settings from normal to extremely low
37:38latency,
37:39which then pumps out It requires more
37:41bandwidth and more processing power,
37:43even though I have a brand new iMac
37:45here. Uh but that's what I found out.
37:47So, if you notice lately the last two or
37:48three times, no glitching. So, uh so,
37:51we're about 30 seconds behind, I do
37:53believe. But, I I will attempt to keep
37:56uh 30 seconds behind in my thinking.
38:00What goes into the known column after
38:01November 6th? Mhm. I have a card here
38:03from Homeland Security. Uh the uh
38:06Assistant Secretary uh Office for State
38:08and Local Law Enforcement. Got to follow
38:11up with this guy. We got some good
38:12things going on. What goes into the
38:14known column after November 6th? Full
38:16legal accountability.
38:18No question anymore. He did it.
38:20The system has rendered its verdict.
38:23He pled guilty. He knowingly and
38:24willfully pled guilty.
38:27The case is closed in every sense that
38:28the legal system closes cases. There is
38:30no appeal from this. That was part of
38:32the plea deal. You cannot appeal. You're
38:34pleading guilty.
38:36Which is solace for the family cuz they
38:38don't have to worry about this being
38:39brought back up again.
38:41What's still in the knowable column? The
38:43sequence.
38:44The premeditation.
38:46What is known is where the bodies are,
38:47where they were discovered. What is
38:48knowable is the sequence, the
38:50premeditation, the specific mechanics of
38:53what happened on August 13th. And the
38:55question that the known versus knowable
38:56framework approaches but cannot resolve,
38:59and Emily Deal, I think you were talking
39:00about this, why at the level of actual
39:03psychological motivation any of this
39:05happened. And I think I saw that early
39:08on. And no appeals for his family to
39:10endure. Yes, I saw that early on way up
39:12here at the top. Let me see here.
39:14Um
39:16Oh, I think that No, that was you,
39:17Lorelei. This was in right here. I
39:19watched one interview uh
39:21with the two little girls were alive in
39:22his truck with their dead mother. He
39:24killed them at the worksite. Who can do
39:25that? That's that's the knowable column.
39:28That's the question we still cannot
39:30answer.
39:32What does it take for somebody to do
39:33that?
39:35Just know, I'm sure pretty somewhere in
39:37prison
39:38there is a code of honor in prison among
39:40convicts.
39:42If you're a pedophile, if you're a child
39:43killer, if you're a child rapist,
39:46you have uh
39:48a very rough time in prison. They put
39:50you what they call ad seg,
39:51administrative segregation, ad seg, a d
39:54s e g. They put you in administrative
39:56segregation.
39:58Why? Because if you go out there, you're
40:00going to get killed.
40:02It happens.
40:03Payback is a [ __ ] Karma is a [ __ ]
40:06And uh in this case uh I'm sure that he
40:09is
40:09probably what he's most likely in is a
40:12uh if not solitary confinement, then in
40:15an area with other high-risk
40:16individuals.
40:18Um and they are segregated
40:19administratively from the rest of the uh
40:21general pop, what they call gen pop. Not
40:23Gen Z, gen pop.
40:26There you go. You didn't know there were
40:27all sorts of acronyms involved in this
40:29stuff.
40:30So,
40:32what's still a noble column, like we
40:33said, the sequence. Why would somebody
40:34do this, right? Why at the level of
40:37actual psychological motivation any of
40:39this happened? The plea deal closed the
40:41legal question. Guilt or innocence. He's
40:44guilty. It did not close the record.
40:47And then came February 2019.
40:51Here we go. Laura Leigh, if we
40:52understood what they think or how they
40:53think, we would be like them. That's why
40:55I can't wrap my head around his actions.
40:57You know, funny you should mention that
40:58because uh sometimes you have to think
41:00like the people who are doing this. You
41:01have to um
41:04look at it through their eyes. As I tell
41:05people when I instruct, especially on um
41:09first principles, investigation stuff
41:10like this, what I did for the guard,
41:13I tell them the problem isn't the
41:14problem. The problem isn't even the way
41:16you think about the problem. There is
41:18only one problem that matters.
41:20How does your adversary think about the
41:21problem? How do the Chinese think about
41:23it? How do the Russians think about it?
41:24How do the Iranians think about it? The
41:25North Koreans? That's all that matters.
41:27Doesn't matter how you think about it.
41:29So, to my point, it doesn't matter how
41:30we think about it. We have to look at it
41:32how does he think about it?
41:34So, yeah, you cannot rationalize this.
41:36There's no way to rationalize what he
41:38did from the standpoint and that's the
41:40frame. It's very difficult then for
41:42people to get into that frame, but what
41:43you have to get into is think
41:45>> [snorts]
41:47>> you would go you go, "Well, I wouldn't
41:48do anything like that." That's not the
41:50question. The question is what would
41:51make you do something like that?
41:54In his case, what would make him do
41:55something like that? Girlfriend on the
41:57side, wanted a new life, uh a wife with
42:00a third child coming and two daughters
42:02was an impediment to his future
42:04lifestyle that he had envisioned in his
42:06head.
42:07I mean, I couldn't do something like
42:09that, but in my mind, I look at what
42:12would it take to rationalize it in a
42:14somebody's mind like his in order to
42:16give him the justification to go ahead
42:17and do what he did.
42:20So,
42:20>> [clears throat]
42:21>> that gets us into exactly this, February
42:232019.
42:26Mhm.
42:28And boy, I don't know if you can hear
42:29some of the birds out here, too. I love
42:30the birds. I record them in the morning.
42:32I use little app called uh Merlin, m e r
42:34l i n.
42:36Cornell.
42:37Uh just great app. I can identify I got
42:39like 80 different birds uh things of
42:41life here.
42:42Emily Dill. So, he doesn't experience
42:45emotions like normal people. He didn't
42:46want his wife and kids anymore, but
42:47nobody else can have them, either. So,
42:49they had to go. Yeah, if I can't have
42:51you, nobody else can kind of thing. Or
42:53it's like, "Hey, I don't want to deal
42:54with this. I don't want to deal with
42:55child support. I don't want to deal with
42:57divorce." So, what's the easiest way to
42:58do it? Is to get rid of them.
43:01Also, the potential loss of assets and
43:03money from a divorce. Absolutely.
43:05I don't know if Colorado's a community
43:07property state or no-fault divorce, but
43:09I guarantee you um with two kids and one
43:12on the way, his child support payments
43:14would have been very healthy.
43:17So,
43:18let's talk about February 2019. In the
43:20seventh month after his conviction,
43:23Watts sat down at the Dodge Correctional
43:25Institution in Wisconsin. Wisconsin.
43:29Guess what? He's not doing time. Where
43:31did this happen at?
43:33And where's he doing time at?
43:36Colorado? He's doing time in Wisconsin.
43:39Happens sometimes with high-risk
43:40individuals like this.
43:42He sat down with FBI behavioral
43:44analysts,
43:46which uh I actually have some of their I
43:48have those my training I still have my
43:49training book from that, believe it or
43:51not. He gave them the fullest account of
43:53August 13th that exists anywhere in the
43:55public record.
43:57So,
43:58let's let's talk about who these FBI
44:01behavioral analysts are and what they're
44:02doing in that room because it matters
44:05how you interpret what comes out of that
44:06conversation. So, part of this is what
44:07they call the National Center for the
44:09Analysis of Violent Crime.
44:12FBI's Behavioral Science Unit.
44:14Behavior actually Behavioral Analysis
44:15Unit. Um BAU. Used to be I'm thinking
44:18old school, Behavioral Science Unit, but
44:20it's now called BAU, Behavioral Analysis
44:22Unit. And they have different groups
44:24now, so
44:25BAU 1 2 3 4 and I think 5, five
44:28different ones. Each one focus on
44:29different things. So, BAU 4 um
44:34uh is uh I think with dealing with
44:37adults, but in this case you got
44:38children, so the National Center and the
44:41other folks, they focus on these things.
44:42So, but what do they do, right?
44:44Behavioral analysts, they're not
44:45prosecutors. They're not there to
44:46collect information to litigate you.
44:49They are not building a case.
44:51The legal case has already been built.
44:52It's done. It's over. Watts is never
44:55getting out of prison, regardless of
44:56what he says or does not say in the next
44:583 hours. Will not happen.
45:02You got a better chance of seeing God.
45:03He is not getting out of prison. Not
45:05going to happen. Got a better chance of
45:07winning the lottery, the Powerball, two
45:09weeks in a row.
45:11Not going to happen. He's not getting
45:12out. Only one way he's getting out, upon
45:15death. Horizontal.
45:18The analysts are not there to extract
45:19information that can be used against
45:21him. There's nothing left to prosecute.
45:23Legally, there is nothing more that can
45:24be done to him. They are there to
45:26understand what you guys have been
45:28talking about, Laura Leigh and Okie and
45:30Emily. They are there to understand.
45:33They're there to understand,
45:35to document, to add to the body of
45:38knowledge about how this specific type
45:39of case unfolds.
45:41They're less concerned about Chris
45:43himself and they're more concerned about
45:45what can we learn from Chris and apply
45:47this to other cases to give us
45:49behavioral clues. So, if we run into
45:50another case with the quote cooperative
45:52suspect grieving husband, can we look at
45:54this and identify things quicker,
45:56faster, better to either confirm or
45:58dispel the notion that this is truly a
45:59missing person case or
46:02it's a
46:03homicide, it's a kidnapping.
46:05Real quick,
46:07show you quick kitty picture. There she
46:08is. Rosebud's back. Kind of hard to see
46:10that sunlight comes in like that, but uh
46:12she's curled back up. I opened up the
46:14window.
46:15At the expense of my uh um
46:19um hey, you know, uh
46:23the pollen and everything out there,
46:25allergies. But, [clears throat] anything
46:27for the cat, right? Anything for the
46:28cat.
46:29All right. So, that context, like I
46:31said, changes everything.
46:33Uh
46:35they are not there to to collect
46:38evidence against him for a future trial.
46:40So, what they want is they want
46:42knowledge about this specific kind of
46:44case unfolds so that the next time an
46:46investigator, like I say, faces a
46:47cooperative suspect in a domestic
46:49disappearance, they have a more complete
46:51picture of what they might be looking
46:53for. Where else should we look? What
46:55other questions should we ask early on?
46:58What steps should we take sooner rather
47:00than later?
47:02One of them is the crime scene. I was
47:04just watching on when I do my endurance
47:06rides, um I'll
47:08Peloton has Netflix on there and I'm
47:09rewatching some stuff on 48 Hours.
47:12And this case just happened up in
47:13Montgomery County, Maryland.
47:16But, it all start off by the framing. A
47:18oral surgeon, a doctor of oral surgery
47:21and stuff.
47:22I don't want to get into the whole case,
47:24but he's got a girlfriend half his age,
47:27used to be his patient, then worked for
47:28him and now they're go But, anyway,
47:30she's got all sorts of drugs there,
47:31propofol, ketamine,
47:33all sorts of stuff like that.
47:35>> [clears throat]
47:36>> But, they go there and he frames it as
47:37that it's an overdose. She overdosed
47:39herself. She's been like this for a long
47:41time.
47:43They don't secure the scene like they
47:44should have.
47:45Not knocking Montgomery County, got lots
47:47of friends that work there.
47:48But, this is the one thing that if I
47:50could just beat it through people's
47:51head, it doesn't matter what you say.
47:55I don't care it's like the cold case I
47:57was telling you I was working. The
47:58doctor then framed it as it's a suicide
48:00when it is not a suicide. FBI BAU 4 said
48:03it is a staged crime scene. This is one
48:05of the biggest things I'd love to get
48:06through into not only into dispatch, uh
48:09into the initial radio call that goes
48:10out, but into the initial mindset of the
48:12officers that showed up. It does not
48:14matter what that person tells you.
48:16It doesn't matter what you believe. It
48:18only matters what must be true. That's
48:19why first principles is so powerful when
48:21you apply it this way.
48:23So, it doesn't matter what he told me.
48:25She's missing. Got you. Noted. Data
48:28point. Don't believe I don't It's not a
48:30matter of believing or not believing.
48:31It's a data point. So, she's missing. We
48:35have a crime scene, right? We want to
48:36treat this as a crime scene. You never
48:38get the second You never get a second
48:40chance to go back to a pristine crime
48:41scene, the way it was when you first
48:43showed up. JonBenét Ramsey.
48:45Never going to get that chance. Why? Cuz
48:47we let John Ramsey go throughout the
48:49house. He found her, ripped the duct
48:51tape off, and now he's contaminated the
48:53crime scene. You never get a second
48:55chance to do this. So, if I had my way,
48:57in the academy, everything else, doesn't
48:59does not matter a single thing. Does not
49:02not matter what they say. Doesn't mean
49:03you don't take them seriously. Like, my
49:05child's missing. Great.
49:07Child's missing. Get let's get some
49:08information. Do an Amber Alert. Let's do
49:10whatever we can. But, at the same time,
49:12in my head, I am not closing off
49:15all of the other different possibilities
49:16based on behavior, right? Is the parent
49:19acting like
49:20Chris Watts did?
49:22You know?
49:24Are they the grieving Are they the
49:25cooperative suspect, right?
49:27Well, if you handle it like a crime
49:29scene from the beginning and you collect
49:31everything, and if they don't want to
49:33let you do it, it's very simple. You
49:34say, "Fine. You don't get to go back
49:36into the house. You're coming out here.
49:37We're securing this area. We'll go get a
49:39We'll go get a search warrant.
49:42That's how that gets handled.
49:45Sorry, I went off on a rant there. But
49:47this very important. This is why the FBI
49:49is there. They're there. They're there.
49:51The context changes the conversation in
49:54ways that are specific and documented,
49:56right?
49:57Because what do they want? They want um
50:01They want to document, like I say, to
50:03add to the body of knowledge about how
50:04this specific type of case unfolds so
50:07that the next time an investigator faces
50:09a cooperative suspect in a domestic
50:11disappearance,
50:12they have a more complete picture,
50:13right? The context changes the
50:15conversation in ways that are specific
50:17and documented. Subjects talk
50:19differently to people who are not
50:20prosecuting them. He's got nothing to
50:23lose. In fact, he's got everything by
50:24everything to gain. Maybe he gets a
50:25couple favors. Maybe he gets a extra
50:27meal time, whatever it might be, right?
50:29He gets some favors. So he's got an
50:31incentive now to cooperate. The
50:33adversarial structure of the interview
50:34room and the implicit or explicit
50:36awareness that what you say can be used
50:37against you
50:39changes what people are willing to
50:40disclose. In this case, it's gone.
50:41Nothing he says can be used against him.
50:43He can't do any more time. He's He's
50:46uh sentenced to five consecutive life
50:47sentences. He's not really going to
50:50There's nothing else you can make it six
50:52or seven. Not going to change his
50:53outcome at all. He's still not getting
50:55out of prison, right? So when that
50:57structure is gone, when the subject has
50:59nothing left to protect legally, a
51:01different type of conversation becomes
51:03possible.
51:04Let's see what some of these things are
51:06um
51:08That's where Susan Smith comes in, the
51:09Chris Watts and mother. Susan Smith will
51:11be a case that we do. I actually met the
51:13sheriff one time at an
51:14ICP conference that did that case. They
51:16actually had him on a panel talking
51:18about that. Very interesting. And the
51:20part of that started her downfall
51:22was the use of
51:24past tense versus present tense. I'll
51:26just leave it at that. We'll get into
51:27more of it later.
51:29Seems Chris is unique in that he is
51:31among the 19% of family annihilators who
51:33did not attempt or succeed at suicide.
51:36Um
51:38Yeah, but that's what But that's um
51:40But even when we say, "Look, uh
51:43what are the odds of it?" Well,
51:44apparently in his case, 100% that he was
51:46not part of that 19%, right?
51:48Um
51:49And his He may have thought He may have
51:51had the hubris, the arrogance to think
51:53he was going to get away with it. That's
51:54why he didn't attempt it.
51:56And sometimes some people are so vain,
51:58it's like, "I want to kill myself." They
51:59want the attention, but they never
52:00follow through on it. So, you know, with
52:03this guy, that's part of why the FBI was
52:05there, right? So, um
52:08it doesn't guarantee honesty though,
52:09these types of interviews. I guarantee
52:11you, it doesn't. You could You can talk
52:12to people. I knew a guy that was good
52:14for, let's say, 30 burglaries. He'd only
52:15tell me about 25 of them. Would not give
52:17up the last five, even though it would
52:19not have made a material difference in
52:20anything. They hold on to that kind of
52:22information. That's their safety
52:23blanket, something that still belongs to
52:25them. You'll see this especially in
52:27serial crimes.
52:29The self-serving elements don't
52:30disappear. They just change form. Watts
52:32in February 2019 is constructing a
52:34version of himself as, guess what? An
52:37overwhelmed man who could see there was
52:38no other way. Not as a predator who
52:41planned methodically.
52:43Methodically.
52:45He was texting his girlfriend on the
52:47side, "Hey,
52:50uh she's leaving me. I'm going to be
52:52getting I'm going to be coming a free
52:53man here in a couple days."
52:55before Shannan mysteriously and
52:57coincidentally dies.
53:00That narrative serves his psychological
53:01needs, even if it no longer serves his
53:04legal ones. Doesn't matter anymore.
53:07>> [clears throat]
53:07>> But it creates conditions for the kind
53:08of disclosure that the prior three
53:10iterations couldn't produce because they
53:12were all done under different
53:14conditions, different legal
53:15implications. And what he disclosed in
53:17that room is the most complete account
53:19of August 12th and 13th, 2018 that
53:21exists. Why? Only one person who knows.
53:23Everybody else is dead.
53:25Here's what he put down in the known
53:26column.
53:32Ah, that's getting better.
53:35Uh I've I'm sorry, I missed this one
53:37here. Uh seems Chris Oh, yeah, unique
53:39and then I've studied them a really dark
53:41but fascinating facet of mass murder.
53:44So, there's [clears throat] different
53:44types of murders, folks. Uh there's uh
53:46serial crimes. There's mass killers,
53:49there's spree killers. You know, each
53:50one of those mean different things. So,
53:52that's why words mean things in a legal
53:54context. Mass killers, you do it all at
53:56once. Spree killer, you're doing
53:57killings um
53:59one after the other, let's say. You go
54:01one place, you kill a couple people, you
54:02drive to another place, kill a couple
54:03people. That's spree killings. Mass
54:05killing confined to one location. Serial
54:07crimes, uh definition now is down to two
54:09murders, but uh a murder followed by a
54:12cooling-off period.
54:13You know, then you do a second one. If
54:14you have two or more of those, they call
54:16that now a serial murderer.
54:18Serial killer. But definitions change.
54:21Anyway, but here's what goes into the
54:22known column.
54:23The night before Sh- The night before
54:25Shannan came home from Phoenix, while
54:26she was still in Arizona. Arizona,
54:30kick off your shoes and stay. That was
54:31another famous song. Anyway,
54:33he tried to administer oxycodone
54:36through her food. Oxycodone.
54:39The goal was to harm baby Nico.
54:41The baby survived.
54:45Think about that for a moment.
54:47Because this detail alone dismantles
54:49something that has been in the public
54:50narrative since the case broke.
54:52This is not a crime that happened in a
54:54terrible moment. This is not a man who
54:57snapped when his wife walked in the
54:59door.
55:01The planning horizon
55:03on August 13th doesn't begin at 1:48 in
55:05the morning when Shannan came home.
55:09It begins at least 24 hours earlier in a
55:12deliberate attempt to harm an unborn
55:14child through his food supply, which is
55:17the mother. You Whatever you do to the
55:18mother ends up in the baby.
55:21When Shannan walked through the front
55:22door that night, she walked into
55:24something she was all that was already
55:25running.
55:27His plot. Continuing the account,
55:29Shannan arrived at approximately 1:48.
55:31An argument about the marriage followed.
55:34After Shannan was asleep, Watts
55:36strangled her in their master bedroom.
55:40That is the beginning, right? Now,
55:42he's killed her.
55:43Now, what do I do? Well, then he went to
55:45Bella's room.
55:46Then Celeste's room.
55:48The girls were still alive when he
55:50carried them to his truck.
55:53On the drive to the Anadarko Cervi, c e
55:57r v i, Cervi 319 oil site, Bella asked
56:00him where they were going.
56:03So, I read that FBI transcript.
56:05The question, four words from a
56:074-year-old.
56:09"Where are we going?" is documented.
56:13It entered the known column in February
56:142019. And in all the years I've been
56:17doing this,
56:19few single pieces of evidence stay with
56:22you the way that something like this
56:23does, right? Not because it changes the
56:25legal outcome. He's not getting out.
56:27Because of what it means about those
56:30last hours were like for those children.
56:34The oil tank access opening at the Cervi
56:36319 site
56:38were 8 inches in diameter.
56:48That's 8 inches.
56:50Right there.
56:53That's That's the diameter
56:56of those holes.
56:58He placed his daughters' bodies inside
57:00those tanks.
57:01Shannan was buried nearby at the site.
57:06>> [clears throat]
57:06>> Um let me see.
57:08Uh what? Wait, what? He drugged her that
57:10night? The night before he tried uh It
57:12was the uh oxycodone.
57:15Premeditated. He canceled a work crew
57:16that was to be at the work site.
57:20It's It is so sad. Um yeah, guys, and
57:22this is I say, we don't get into the
57:24salacious details about but these are
57:26details in the record, but they're
57:27they're important when we reconstruct
57:29the case and we look at what's known
57:31versus knowable, right? Cuz that's what
57:32Thursdays are about. So,
57:35he placed his daughters' bodies inside
57:37those tanks, and Sh- Shannan was buried
57:39nearby, right? After the February 2019
57:41interview, the known column in the Watts
57:43case is is among the most complete, you
57:46know, for a case of this type.
57:48That The what is documented. The what?
57:52The sequence is documented. The
57:54premeditation is documented. The
57:56planning horizon is established.
57:59The mechanism of each death is now in
58:01the record. The location and method of
58:03disposal is in the record. And yet,
58:06what question can we not answer?
58:09It is the why. At the level of
58:11psychological truth is still not there.
58:16Sorry, I told my Tarara not to have the
58:18duty between 12:00 and 1:30. Guess what?
58:20She didn't listen. I was walking her and
58:22trying to listen.
58:23>> [laughter]
58:25>> Uh
58:26But with a with a little Chihuahua, it
58:28should have been a small duty. Not a If
58:30it's a big one, you got big problems,
58:32right?
58:33Same size as the well pipe that just the
58:35baby Jessica fell in, yeah. I mean, it's
58:37you You'd be amazed um
58:41what can be done in those small spaces,
58:42right? So,
58:45So, anyway, what it is, it's one of the
58:46most complete on record. And yet, we
58:48still don't know why. Watts said he
58:49wanted to be with Nicole Kessinger.
58:52He says the marriage was over.
58:55He says he felt trapped. He says he
58:57couldn't see another way out. Those
58:59words are in the record. They are not
59:00sufficient, not in any way, shape, or
59:02form. Here's what I mean by the
59:04distinction.
59:06The surface why is present, the affair,
59:09the desire to be free,
59:11the feeling of being trapped.
59:13Those are real.
59:15He experienced them.
59:17They're in the record, but they don't
59:19account for the oxycodone attempt.
59:21They don't close the gap between I want
59:23out of this marriage and I will poison
59:25my unborn son and put my daughters in an
59:27oil tank.
59:28That gap between a recognizable human
59:31motivation and what actually what he
59:33actually did is where explanation runs
59:36out.
59:37People went out of marriages every day.
59:40They don't kill.
59:42Not always, but some do, but no, people
59:44went out of marriages every day. People
59:46feel trapped in relationships and in
59:48lives that aren't working for them
59:50constantly.
59:51The vast majority of them divorce or
59:53leave or have conversations they've been
59:55avoiding.
59:56The explanation for why this specific
59:59man made this specific series of
1:00:01decisions is not in the record.
1:00:04It cannot be put there by any
1:00:05investigative means we know.
1:00:09So, the known versus noble framework is
1:00:11a tool. What's a tool for? It's a tool
1:00:13for establishing
1:00:15facts. It is not And again, that's why I
1:00:17wanted to make a question, I think um
1:00:19one of our new folks here. Uh let me go
1:00:21back up and get the name correctly.
1:00:24Um
1:00:26not that trans, but uh
1:00:29Oh, gosh, darn. I will I'm one of those
1:00:31people once I get the open loop in my
1:00:32head, I have to do it. Let me scroll
1:00:34There it is. Uh Ella
1:00:36uh uh Ella Marstead, right? Um so, um
1:00:40one thing I was trying to tell people is
1:00:42we're not here to go back and I had this
1:00:44discussion with somebody and I stopped
1:00:45it on the Scott Peterson case. He's
1:00:47innocent. He was railroaded. That's not
1:00:49here for that.
1:00:51Not here to relitigate the case. I'm not
1:00:52here to open it. I'm not We have new
1:00:54evidence. Not my problem. That's the
1:00:56court's problem. That's his problem. Not
1:00:57my problem.
1:00:59This is about crime reconstructed. This
1:01:01is about diving in
1:01:03and and and doing doing the intro, doing
1:01:05the assumption audit, doing the system
1:01:07stress test, doing the known versus
1:01:09noble, we do the master class, and then
1:01:11we find finish Friday with the
1:01:12synthesis. That's what we do on these
1:01:13cases. Some of them can be adjudicated.
1:01:15Some of them can still be open, but I'm
1:01:17not here to go search down rabbit holes
1:01:21for somebody's pet theory.
1:01:24So, that's why I
1:01:25sometimes And guys, you know, that when
1:01:27I push back, it's not personal. It's
1:01:29like, "No, if I don't do it, you guys
1:01:30have seen me. We were in Australia
1:01:32looking at koalas." Literally.
1:01:34I showed you some pictures of Australia.
1:01:36Uh good stuff. I think I'm starting to
1:01:38get it. Hey, look, took me a while. Been
1:01:40doing this 40 years. Took me a while to
1:01:41get it.
1:01:43Uh Nicole knew he was married and had no
1:01:44problem with that, right?
1:01:47She didn't see his lies until she found
1:01:49out Shannan was pregnant. From what she
1:01:51said in her PD interview. Similar to
1:01:53Amber Frey.
1:01:55You mean, you were married, Scott? That
1:01:56you weren't a widower? That she was
1:01:58still alive? And she disappeared with
1:02:01your unborn son, Connor?
1:02:03That's why Amber Frey came forward in
1:02:05the Scott Peterson case.
1:02:07All right.
1:02:08The known versus noble is a tool for
1:02:10establishing facts. It's not a tool for
1:02:12establishing psychological truth. Those
1:02:15are different objects and the
1:02:16methodology has to be honest about the
1:02:18difference.
1:02:19Facts can be documented, sourced,
1:02:21corroborated, placed in a known column.
1:02:24Internal motivation, the actual
1:02:26experience of a person who commits this
1:02:28kind of act
1:02:29cannot be reconstructed from the
1:02:31outside, not by investigators,
1:02:33not by behavior analysts,
1:02:35not by the methodology.
1:02:37This is not a failure of the
1:02:38investigation. It's not a failure of the
1:02:41framework.
1:02:43Let's see here.
1:02:45Um
1:02:46Chris said his family would be alive if
1:02:48not for
1:02:49for Yeah, that Nicole's relationship,
1:02:52for what that is worth.
1:02:54He's transferring Guess what? What if if
1:02:56she hadn't been willing to have an
1:02:57affair for me, my family would still be
1:02:59alive. Don't Don't look at my personal
1:03:01responsibility.
1:03:03If it wasn't for her, if it wasn't for
1:03:04everybody else. Well, dude, if it wasn't
1:03:06for you, they'd all be alive.
1:03:09It's not a failure of the framework.
1:03:10It's the honest boundary of what
1:03:12reconstruction can do. The known column
1:03:14has a ceiling.
1:03:15In the Watts case, we found that ceiling
1:03:17by running the record to its completion
1:03:19and asking what it still doesn't answer.
1:03:22The why.
1:03:24Finding the ceiling is the work. It
1:03:25tells you what is available to be known
1:03:28and it tells you where the unknowable
1:03:30begins.
1:03:31That boundary is not a comfortable place
1:03:33to end up. Remember I said sometimes you
1:03:34have to be comfortable with uncertainty
1:03:37when you're doing investigations. This
1:03:38is not a true crime podcast, folks. In
1:03:40other words, we're not just retelling a
1:03:41story and rehashing it and doing murder
1:03:43porn. This is a serious look at how
1:03:47these things work, how investigations
1:03:49work, how we improve on doing these
1:03:51things, and it's giving you an inside
1:03:53insight They They don't give you
1:03:54insight. What they do on all of these
1:03:56shows, and I've watched them, you know,
1:03:58and I know when I'm being fed.
1:04:00It's like I have this discussion with my
1:04:02wife all the time. Well, what do you
1:04:03think about
1:04:05They put on TV what they want you to
1:04:06see, not what the truth is. Remember I
1:04:08did that rant about a month ago, South
1:04:10by Southwest. How do we shape the facts
1:04:12to tell a compelling narrative?
1:04:14Nobody cares about the truth in some of
1:04:16this stuff. They don't. You know why?
1:04:17Cuz if you told the truth, to them it'd
1:04:19be boring.
1:04:20They want to They want to sexy it up.
1:04:22That That's why it's called murder porn.
1:04:24Murder monetizing media. They They
1:04:26profit off the misery of others.
1:04:31So again, that boundary is not a
1:04:32comfortable place to end up. The
1:04:33question that sits on the other side of
1:04:35it,
1:04:37why would any person do this?
1:04:39Which all of you guys have asked. I
1:04:40don't see how anybody could do this. Is
1:04:42the question every person who encounters
1:04:43this case eventually ask. How could he
1:04:46do this? The known column gives you four
1:04:49detailed
1:04:50confession iterations, 2,000 pages of
1:04:54discovery, and the most detailed record
1:04:56The Colorado Bureau of Investigation put
1:04:58out that discovery document, and the
1:05:00most detailed record of a domestic
1:05:01homicide that most people will ever
1:05:03encounter.
1:05:04And it still does not answer that
1:05:06question.
1:05:09Thank you, Emily. If this was true
1:05:10crime, I wouldn't be here. I appreciate
1:05:12you because I'm not into doing true
1:05:14crime.
1:05:15I mean, one of the proposals I have
1:05:16actually before a streaming service
1:05:18right now is about How about we do a
1:05:20true true crime story about the failure
1:05:22of true crime? And here I have five
1:05:24episodes.
1:05:27One of them is the Golden State Killer.
1:05:29You want me to tell you all the ways
1:05:30true crime has failed? You want me to
1:05:32tell you how many times they
1:05:33misidentified the wrong person? They got
1:05:35the wrong information. They put the
1:05:37wrong people in the frame and cost them?
1:05:43I can tell you many true crime podcasts
1:05:45right now
1:05:47that have been sued
1:05:49and are likely to be sued again. Why?
1:05:51Because they play
1:05:53fast and loose with the facts.
1:05:56Whatever serves their purpose to create
1:05:58clickbait to get you on here. I could do
1:05:59a better job of getting people on here
1:06:01by doing clickbait stuff, but look, I'm
1:06:03going to do what I do,
1:06:04and if it grows, it grows, and if it
1:06:06doesn't, it doesn't. Some of you guys
1:06:08are going to start seeing ads. I've
1:06:09gotten to the point now where I can run
1:06:10ads on some of this stuff.
1:06:12We'll see where it goes, but I'm not
1:06:14doing it for the money.
1:06:17Um
1:06:18if I was, it'd be a different format.
1:06:21It'd be all of this hype and everything
1:06:23else. So,
1:06:25uh are all these answers to why enough?
1:06:27I'm a little lost as to what more and uh
1:06:30little lost as to what more is unknown
1:06:33noble.
1:06:34Um
1:06:36Well, I don't know. I I'm not sure I
1:06:37quite get that, but aren't all these
1:06:38answers to why enough? We don't know
1:06:40why.
1:06:41We know his explanation.
1:06:44But, you know, his why isn't the true
1:06:47why.
1:06:48That's what I said. That's the That's
1:06:49the noble part, right? That's why we've
1:06:51had four different four different
1:06:53versions of this.
1:06:55The question that sits on the other side
1:06:56of it, why would any person do this,
1:06:58right? Is the question everybody who
1:07:00ask, you know, who sees this case ask.
1:07:03And it does not answer that specific
1:07:04question, why? We have his answers, but
1:07:07it still not does not answer why, right?
1:07:09Cuz he's got four different
1:07:10explanations.
1:07:12This has to be accepted as the condition
1:07:13of the work, though. To your point, Oki,
1:07:15not fought against. This is a condition
1:07:17of the work because the alternative,
1:07:19pretending the known column contains
1:07:21something it doesn't, constructing a
1:07:23psychological explanation from
1:07:25insufficient evidence,
1:07:27treating the surface why
1:07:29as sufficient because no better answer
1:07:31is available
1:07:33is not honest reconstruction. It's
1:07:35narrative substitution. We're
1:07:36substituting one narrative We're
1:07:38narrative We're We're back to
1:07:40Thinking, comma, Fast and Slow, Daniel
1:07:42Kahneman. System One Thinking, Type One
1:07:44Thinking. We need coherence. Whatever
1:07:45sounds good enough, we'll put it in
1:07:46there. That's narrative substitution.
1:07:49It tells the story that feels complete
1:07:51while burying the fact that the real
1:07:53answer isn't there. Let's see. I don't
1:07:56think Amber Frey was aware of Scott's
1:07:57marriage because must have hearing him
1:07:58lie
1:07:59so much to her on the phone. No, she
1:08:01wasn't aware of that until she was
1:08:02reported missing.
1:08:04I mean, I I firmly believe Amber Frey
1:08:05was not aware of all this stuff. She
1:08:07definitely thought she was dealing with
1:08:08somebody who was available, who was on
1:08:10the market, who didn't have a wife and
1:08:12son on the way.
1:08:14So, the Watts case gives us the fullest
1:08:16known column in this series so far.
1:08:18It gives us the ceiling at its highest,
1:08:21and it still has a permanent unknowable.
1:08:25So, tonight's master class, 7:00 p.m.
1:08:28Eastern Time,
1:08:30addresses that directly. So, Oki, we
1:08:32will get into some of that tonight. I
1:08:33don't want to I don't want to
1:08:35cannibalize
1:08:37future episodes by getting it all of it
1:08:38now, but tonight we're going to talk
1:08:40about the unknowable part of that. We'll
1:08:41talk about some of the why part, right?
1:08:43Cuz the Watts case gives us the fullest
1:08:45known column in this series. Tonight's
1:08:47master class, what do we do? We address
1:08:48that directly. When a subject gives you
1:08:50multiple conflicting accounts of the
1:08:52same events,
1:08:54which ones do you weight?
1:08:57W E I G H T, not W A I T. Which ones do
1:08:59you give weight to? Which ones do you
1:09:02discount?
1:09:03And how do you build a reconstruction
1:09:05that's more accurate than any single
1:09:08version provides?
1:09:09The methodology problem that almost
1:09:11nobody teaches systematically.
1:09:14That's what we are going to do tonight.
1:09:16Tonight. Tonight. Tonight I'll see my
1:09:19love tonight. What musical did that come
1:09:22out of? All right, sheriffs need to
1:09:23provide detectives with what they need
1:09:24to investigate, and detectives need to
1:09:26be retrained and have consistent ongoing
1:09:28training. Couldn't agree more.
1:09:30Uh unfortunately, budgets budget
1:09:32constraints um they all operate under um
1:09:35tightening budgets.
1:09:37Um and so you don't there's
1:09:39state-mandated training that you have to
1:09:41go through. Depends on what state you're
1:09:43in. Sometimes it's 40 hours, sometimes
1:09:44it's 80 hours, but you have to have uh
1:09:46in-service training or have continuous
1:09:48training each year, so many credit
1:09:50hours. Continuing legal education
1:09:52credits, similar, you know, CLEs.
1:09:54So yeah, training is a big part of that.
1:09:56That's why I don't mind going to the
1:09:57National Guard. I do professional
1:09:58speaking. My fees are much higher than
1:10:00what I'm charging these guys. I'm giving
1:10:01them a 75% discount. And still
1:10:04capitalism is good thing, comrade. I
1:10:06still do this for capitalism, but um I
1:10:09want I want to make sure they get
1:10:10trained, right?
1:10:12So um we're exchanging something.
1:10:14They're exchanging money for my time,
1:10:16and for my time, I'm exchanging my my
1:10:18knowledge or my the way I think about
1:10:20stuff with them so that they become more
1:10:22valuable in terms of the work that
1:10:24they're doing.
1:10:25Um got you. Bingo, got you.
1:10:28Let's see Ah, she got it right. Teresa
1:10:30Griffin, West Side Story. Yes, we did
1:10:32that, believe it or not, in high school.
1:10:34I am dating myself. We did some songs
1:10:36from uh uh high school Maria.
1:10:40Maria, I just met a girl named Maria.
1:10:44Great great uh kid named Martin Geisert
1:10:46sang lead on that. I remember it. How do
1:10:48I remember this stuff? It's an
1:10:50affliction. It's a curse. It's a
1:10:51blessing and a curse, right? So guys, so
1:10:53here's what we're going to do.
1:10:55Um uh
1:10:56I won't show you
1:10:58I just want to show this from yesterday.
1:10:59I still had it in there. I forgot to
1:11:00take it out. Remember, we have all of
1:11:01these what if people. What if what if
1:11:02what if, right? Well, remember now, what
1:11:04if worms had machine guns, birds
1:11:05wouldn't screw with them, now would
1:11:07they? Okay.
1:11:09So and I want to remind you of one more
1:11:10thing here, right? What do I want to
1:11:12remind you of? This.
1:11:15>> [music]
1:11:22>> Give me your case, we'll reconstruct it.
1:11:24And if I do, and if you you there's a
1:11:26thing on there that says you want to be
1:11:27uh credited with it or not. If you want
1:11:29to be, I will I will give you full
1:11:31credit. Otherwise, you can remain
1:11:34anonymous. That's anonymous, not
1:11:36anonymous, but anonymous. I say
1:11:38anonymous.
1:11:39Uh because I'm the You don't know,
1:11:41hardly.
1:11:42You're not that old.
1:11:45I don't know anybody's age. There's no
1:11:46age requirement other than this is uh I
1:11:48don't make it with YouTube, it's weird.
1:11:50If you make it for kids or something it
1:11:51So I don't make this for kids. This is
1:11:53made for adults. And I have to go
1:11:55through on the ad stuff and basically
1:11:56check. The only thing I do is is I keep
1:11:58as you notice really keep profanity to a
1:12:01minimum. Former cop, military guy. I
1:12:02mean, I could have unleashed a flurry of
1:12:05uh foul language, but I chose not to cuz
1:12:07this needs to be professional. And you
1:12:09guys are professionals out there. Um but
1:12:11I have to check a place on there that
1:12:12says we talk about sensitive topics, but
1:12:14in a but in a respectful way. We talk
1:12:16about death and tragedy and stuff like
1:12:18that, which makes it ad safe. That the
1:12:20YouTube will allow you to generate and
1:12:22run ads on that. So
1:12:23it's not that I'm interested in playing
1:12:25within their rules and their guidelines,
1:12:26but it is their system, right? But I'm
1:12:28not interested in being controversial
1:12:29and going I know what happened in the I
1:12:32get tired of seeing this crap on the net
1:12:34crap, as they say in Scotland,
1:12:35crappolat. I get tired of seeing this
1:12:37crap of people putting out crap on the
1:12:39Nancy Guthrie case, and they keep
1:12:41bringing up um
1:12:42uh the son-in-law. They keep bringing up
1:12:45the daughter. They keep bringing up all
1:12:46this other stuff that has been just
1:12:49run to ground. It's been dealt with.
1:12:51There's not a there there, and yet they
1:12:52keep regurgitating it. Why? Because they
1:12:55keep getting clicks.
1:12:57It's like you say, why why did you you
1:12:58see what they used to call the Nigerian
1:12:59scam email? Why do they keep sending out
1:13:01these scam emails? Because it works.
1:13:03People still respond to them. So I do
1:13:05not do um
1:13:08Rita Moreno is 94, amazing. Oh, yes. I
1:13:11mean, and that the the Jets and the
1:13:12Sharks, remember the two gangs? They
1:13:14just don't I mean, I I like it's been a
1:13:16long time since I've gone to see a
1:13:17musical. I
1:13:18few times I was up Well, not few times,
1:13:20quite a few times I've been up in New
1:13:21York City. I walked down Broadway. Could
1:13:23have seen some stuff down there, but um
1:13:26just wasn't into it at that time. Um I
1:13:29like I like the movie version of it of
1:13:31West Side Story. So but uh anyway,
1:13:34>> [snorts]
1:13:34>> let us do this tonight. You guys have
1:13:36your marching orders. If you show up at
1:13:387:00 p.m. tonight, we will dig into a
1:13:39lot of this stuff. I want to thank all
1:13:41of you guys for showing up. Uh make sure
1:13:43you like, subscribe, smash that like
1:13:45subscribe button. Um help the algorithm.
1:13:48Get it out there. Share it with friends.
1:13:49Total strangers. Total strangers will
1:13:51simply have to watch to wonder what
1:13:52you're going on and on about. You got to
1:13:54watch Crime Recon- structed on YouTube,
1:13:56Substack. I'm broadcasting to six
1:13:58different um locations right now.
1:14:01So if you can't find me, you're not
1:14:02trying hard enough. But remember, we
1:14:04want to do this right. We want to do
1:14:06this legitimately. And remember, at the
1:14:07end of the day, this is why we do this.
1:14:10Whoops,
1:14:10>> [music]
1:14:11>> wrong one.
1:14:13Sorry, wrong one. This is why we do
1:14:15this. We do this for these four, Shannon
1:14:17and Nicole, I mean Nico, Bella, and
1:14:20Celeste. That's why we do this. So guys,
1:14:22keep that in mind. Let's talk about that
1:14:24tonight at 7:00 p.m.
1:14:28Gregory, hey, my buddy from KHP.
1:14:31Uh [sighs]
1:14:32there it is.
1:14:35State trooper,
1:14:37detective. There's the 50th anniversary
1:14:39right there.
1:14:41There we go, right there.
1:14:43Um all sorts of good stuff there. Take
1:14:45care, y'all. Peace, safe travels. Thank
1:14:47you, guys. 7:00 p.m. tonight, Eastern
1:14:49time. Remember, it does not matter what
1:14:51you believe. All that matters is what
1:14:53must be true.
1:14:557:00 p.m. Eastern time tonight, Susan
1:14:57Shorb. Do you I Do I Of course I know
1:14:59the time tonight. I'm the one who set
1:15:00the time. So now you know the time. 7:00
1:15:03p.m. Eastern, 6:00 Central, 5:00
1:15:06Mountain, 4:00 Pacific.
1:15:08See you tonight.
1:15:23>> [music]

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