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Week 9 Sunday NFL Game Previews (In-Depth Football Statistical Breakdowns) — Transcript

by Max Loeb (Loeb's Leads) · 8,887 words · 1,341 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00Week nine, Sunday NFL breakdowns,
0:01everything you need to know game by game
0:03in 30 minutes. If you've never been here
0:05before, welcome. My name is Max. I make
0:07these for every game on Sunday, as well
0:08as every primetime game to give you a
0:10unique edge looking at run scheme
0:11metrics, coverage data, and overall
0:13schematic trends nobody talks about. If
0:15you're new, hit the subscribe button so
0:16you don't miss any more of this content.
0:17If you enjoy stuff like this, make sure
0:19to leave a like. Really helps me out.
0:21Let's get into this breakdown. Per your
0:22request, the highlights are back. We'll
0:24go through each matchup and talk about
0:25the most important things that are
0:27highlighted, and then we'll pick a
0:28winner in each game. Bengals versus
0:30Falcons overseas in Spain. The most
0:33important things here, when the Falcons
0:34have the ball, they want to run the
0:36ball. Fifth most rush attempts in the
0:37NFL, fourth most rush yards per game.
0:40The Bengals, even though they've been
0:41pretty good overall on the ground in
0:43terms of yards per game allowed, they're
0:45giving up the fourth most yards per
0:47carry. That's nearly 4.84. And if I'm
0:49the Atlanta Falcons, I look at what
0:51Bijan Robinson really has failed to do
0:54these past couple games despite having a
0:55good amount of volume, I'm still leaning
0:57into it. Now, Brian Robinson Jr. might
0:59play this week. That could potentially
1:01help the Falcons run game out a little
1:03bit. You can see some of these games
1:04where they both had double digit
1:05touches. I mean, the production is
1:07through the roof, and I think it helps
1:08Bijan Robinson as well. But even if
1:10Brian Robinson Jr.'s out, I think that
1:12is the key
1:14for this Falcons offense. Now, what's
1:16interesting about the Bengals defense,
1:18they're also really struggling against
1:19tight ends. Second most tight end yards
1:21per game allowed, third most tight end
1:22receptions per game. How much can you
1:24trust Kyle Pitts? I 'm not 100% sure you
1:26can. They're also very good in the red
1:29zone, fourth lowest red zone touchdown
1:30percentage allowed. So if the Falcons
1:32can't get the run game going, I don't
1:34think they're going to have a ton of
1:34success in the red zone. Now, on the
1:36other side, the Bengals are throwing the
1:38ball a lot, and the Falcons are making
1:40teams throw the ball a lot. Here's the
1:42issue, though. When getting AJ Terrell
1:44back, the Falcons have been better in
1:46the secondary and almost conversely have
1:49allowed teams to run the ball on them a
1:51little bit more. Now, the Bengals don't
1:52run the ball a ton, so I'm not really
1:53going to lean into that much, but Joe
1:55Burrow is averaging 300 plus pass yards
1:57per game. This game is really
1:59interesting James Pierce should be back
2:01for Atlanta this week. Like I said, the
2:04secondary they're better, right, with AJ
2:06Terrell. In terms of the pass game, the
2:08Falcons defense, middle field closed,
2:10cover three, they're going to keep
2:11everything in front of you. Fifth most
2:13running back receptions per game allowed
2:15at 5.4. Now,
2:17Chase Brown has been getting the volume.
2:19He's averaging about 18 and 1/2 touches
2:21per game this season, 15, I believe, at
2:24least 15, excuse me, in each game this
2:26year. And the Falcons are allowing the
2:27most fantasy points per game to running
2:29backs in the last three. It hasn't been
2:31anything super crazy in terms of
2:34efficiency, but it does go beyond the
2:37Buccaneers game where each guy had 25
2:38carries, right? You had multiple running
2:40back rushing touchdowns and a receiving
2:42touchdown for Kyle Juszczyk if you want
2:44to count that. But McCaffrey had six for
2:4661 in what was effectively like 30-ish
2:48minutes of football. So they're
2:51allowing running back production these
2:53last couple games and obviously the
2:54Bears scored three touchdowns on the
2:56ground against them. I really think this
2:58Bengals high-powered offense has some
2:59success and Chase Brown benefits. Look,
3:02he had a touchdown got called back that
3:04got called back last week. It was
3:05brutal. I saw it. It it stung, right? I
3:07I am a Chase Brown owner in one of my
3:08leagues as well.
3:09I think this is the week he bounces back
3:11in fantasy. I think the volume will be
3:12there in the pass game, especially in
3:13full PPR, and I do like him. Ultimately,
3:17I think this Bengals offense is a little
3:19too much right now. Even though I do
3:20think Atlanta can have some success on
3:22the ground, I think Cincinnati is going
3:24to win this game overseas. Denver versus
3:26Carolina. This Panthers offense has been
3:29really, really bad in terms of keeping
3:31Bryce Young upright. Second most sacks
3:33allowed per game, the Broncos defense
3:36defense, excuse me, 6th most sacks per
3:38game. That to me is the big edge in this
3:40game. Panthers are going to throw the
3:42ball a ton. They're probably going to
3:44lean into the slot, especially if Pat
3:45Surtain is going to fall to Terron
3:46McMillan. So I do like Jaylen Coker. And
3:49it's also worth noting the Broncos you
3:50know haven't been great holistically,
3:52right? 10th most pass yards per game
3:54allowed, their third most pass attempts
3:56per game face, and then bottom 10 in
3:57rush yards per game allowed and rush
3:59yards per carry. But I do think this
4:00Panthers offensive line is beat up to
4:02the point where
4:03the success on the ground really won't
4:05be there. And Carolina's run offense has
4:07not been great. With that being said, I
4:08do think Chuba Hubbard can have an
4:09impact in the game through the air,
4:11right? Second most running back
4:13receiving yards per game allowed, eighth
4:14most running back receptions per game
4:16allowed. But I really do think the big
4:18edge for that side or that match up,
4:20Panthers offense, Broncos defense is
4:22along the line of scrimmage. And I think
4:23the Broncos take advantage. Now on the
4:25other side, the Broncos run running
4:28running back production, I should say,
4:29it's Jonah Coleman's backfield. If you
4:31guys didn't see my fantasy breakdown,
4:33I'll link it in the description. We
4:34talked about that. I'll pull up the
4:35really quick notes on Jonah Coleman
4:37here.
4:38Uh this is his backfield. It really is.
4:40Where is it? Kansas City here we go. Um
4:4215 touches to J.K. Dobbins seven, seven
4:44red zone touches to Dobbins zero, 17
4:47routes to Dobbins two, 66% snap share to
4:49Dobbins 21. And then his upcoming
4:51schedule is really, really good. So I
4:54really think Jonah Coleman is in for a
4:57big one here, especially when you look
4:58at the Broncos. Extremely high running
5:00back target rate in the past game.
5:02Panthers, third most rush yards per game
5:04allowed, fifth most yards per carry
5:06allowed. The only thing that worries me,
5:08and I'll highlight this in different
5:09colors cuz it's not, you know, the same
5:10thing, the Broncos aren't running the
5:12ball a ton. They're not running the ball
5:13a ton. They are
5:15looking for an identity offensively. And
5:17I think they kind of found it with
5:19Coleman last game. And it wasn't
5:20anything super crazy in terms of overall
5:22production on the ground for Coleman,
5:24but he did have that big chunk play
5:26through the air, which he's absolutely
5:28capable of doing. He still did have 11
5:30carries, a little less than four yards
5:32per carry against one of the best run
5:34defense in the NFL, right? We'll talk
5:35about Kansas City's run defense.
5:38I don't know. I think you look at nine
5:39for 54 the week prior. There's signs of
5:41life. There's encouraging things in this
5:43Broncos offense. And I really do think
5:44Jonah Coleman is the player to watch,
5:47especially because against middle field
5:48closed, he's also the second most
5:50frequently targeted Denver Bronco behind
5:51Jaylen Waddle, oddly enough. It's a
5:53great rush match up for him. I really
5:54like him. In terms of the offensive
5:57production, the Panthers are top five in
5:59outside wide receiver target rate
6:01allowed, you know, which would mean
6:02Courtland Sutton. But I I'm starting to
6:04get more encouraged with Waddle. I think
6:06Waddle is being used all over the field.
6:08He's being used in different ways, and
6:09if Pat Bryan is back for this game, he
6:11will probably take some of the slot
6:12routes and push Waddle outside. As weird
6:14as that sounds, because the the body
6:16types that they have, that's what the
6:18Broncos like to do. So
6:20I don't mind Waddle in this game, right?
6:22I really don't. The only thing is
6:23Broncos really aren't throwing to
6:24receivers, and obviously less than 200
6:26pass yards per game is not ideal. But
6:29the Panthers
6:30haven't been great on the outside
6:32without either of their starting
6:32corners, so I don't mind Waddle in this
6:34game.
6:35But like I said, the big edge here along
6:37the line of scrimmage, even at Carolina,
6:38even with a couple extra days of prep, I
6:40think Denver gets after Bryce Young
6:42enough and they can do enough
6:43offensively, especially on the ground.
6:45Dallas versus Indianapolis. The big
6:47thing here,
6:48this Cowboys pass offense. Now George
6:50Pickens is was, excuse me, when I'm
6:52recording this, limited Thursday with a
6:54hamstring injury. Obviously big injury
6:56updates. I'll keep you posted. If you're
6:57not following on Twitter, there's a link
6:58in the description. That's where a lot
7:00of the big injury updates that relate to
7:02this video, I will let you know, but
7:03I'll do my best to keep a pinned comment
7:04on here as well.
7:06This Colts defense is bad against the
7:09Well, it's just bad overall. It's been
7:10bad overall. Most rush yards per game
7:12allowed, second most yards per carry. So
7:14really bad on the ground. Thing is the
7:15Cowboys don't really run the ball, so
7:17it's not a great match there. But in
7:19terms of the pass game, seventh most
7:21wide receiver yards per game allowed,
7:23top 10 outside wide receiver target rate
7:26allowed. Now obviously the Dallas
7:27Cowboys are throwing the ball a bunch.
7:29Seventh most attempts per game, 10th
7:30most pass yards. They're also top five
7:32in outside wide receiver target rate
7:34target rate as well. Now CD Lamb against
7:37a Colts defense that's pretty man heavy
7:39is usually the guy, but he's in the
7:41slot. What's weird is it was really
7:43heavy slot usage before Sauce Gardner
7:46got injured, and then Sauce Gardner got
7:48injured and
7:50the Titans kind of took advantage in the
7:51second half with Carnell Tate. That 70
7:53yard game he had every single catch,
7:55every yard was in the second half
7:57without Sauce Gardner. So
7:59with Gardner back, I think it's more
8:02Lamb than anything, but it is worth
8:04noting
8:05Ryan Finneoy running
8:08a decent amount of routes from the slot,
8:11but
8:12he is targeted more frequently in
8:13man-to-man than George Pickens is. So
8:16even if Pickens goes, I actually think
8:17Lenoir could be a guy to watch. Now on
8:19the other side, the Colts offense again
8:21has been really bad. They like throwing
8:23to tight ends, but honestly Dallas
8:25hasn't been that bad versus tight ends.
8:27You know, this defense has really
8:28struggled. They've been fine against
8:30tight ends, ninth fewest tight end
8:32receptions per game allowed. Now what's
8:33interesting and what's worth noting is
8:35this Cowboys defense is targeted in the
8:37slot at a top five rate.
8:39Tyler Warren will run a bunch of routes
8:40from the slot. It's kind of like the
8:42Isaiah Likely thing and I'll talk about
8:43him against the Eagles. Like
8:45Likely's a a tight end, but he runs
8:47routes like a slot receiver. Warren is a
8:49little bit of both, but he's going to
8:50run some routes from the slot. So I
8:51don't think this matchup is as bad for
8:54Warren, especially when like you look at
8:55the Cowboys defense, they're
8:57not great overall, but on the ground I
8:59think is the big edge. The question
9:01becomes like what are they going Is
9:03Jonathan How much is Jonathan Taylor
9:04going to play? Like is the trade value a
9:06thing? Obviously, at least at the time
9:07of recording, he's going to start, but
9:10what happens if
9:12you know, this game is getting
9:14out of hand in the third quarter and
9:15we're like, oh, we could trade Jonathan
9:17Taylor. It's going to be the Seth
9:18McGowan show. So
9:20I don't know. I don't I don't believe
9:22in the Colts offense too much. I do
9:24think they can have some success on the
9:25ground against this Cowboys defense and
9:27it would be the most Colts thing ever
9:29right now to go out and win this game
9:30and you know, dominate on the ground,
9:33but
9:34I think Dallas is actually playing
9:36playing better football than we are
9:38giving them credit for overall. I think
9:39defensively they're definitely
9:40struggling, but I got Dallas on the road
9:42against Indy. Jets versus Chiefs, the
9:45Jets are allowing 26 fantasy points per
9:47game to quarterbacks the last three
9:48weeks. Mahomes' pass frequency with Rice
9:51in the lineup is, excuse me, night and
9:52day.
9:53With him, 283 pass yards per game, near
9:5670% completion, two and a half
9:57touchdowns, 0.5 interceptions per game.
9:59Without
10:01220 pass yards per game, 221, 61.3%
10:04completion, 0.67 touchdowns per game,
10:060.67 interceptions per game.
10:08Mahomes' fifth most points per fantasy
10:10points per drop back against man to man,
10:12Jets are top five man to man. This to me
10:14is a big Mahomes week, especially when
10:17you look at this Jets defense like
10:19they are they are not that bad as weird
10:22as it sounds, right? Obviously Chiefs
10:24are
10:25top 10 in pass yards per game, yards per
10:26game, rush yards per game, yards per
10:28game. Uh they don't throw to the outside
10:29much usually between the hashes, but the
10:32Jets seventh fewest pass attempts per
10:33game faced like they're a time of
10:35possession team, sixth fewest pass yards
10:37per game allowed 208.4. I will say I
10:40don't necessarily want to call the bluff
10:41of the New York Jets with David Bailey
10:43coming back defensively as well, but
10:46you do look at some of the quarterbacks
10:47that they've played. Ward, Love has been
10:50good. He had A did not have a great game
10:51here, so I will give them that. Goff had
10:53a pretty solid game. Beathard who again
10:56pretty solid game. Watson
10:57in the rain. Drake May had a really good
10:59game against him and they've been
11:00struggling recently. I don't think the
11:02pass
11:03defense is as good as those numbers
11:05suggest and I don't think they've played
11:07an offense or maybe they played like the
11:08Lions offense that's comparable to
11:09Kansas City and maybe Green Bay, but
11:11that was also a weather game.
11:13Outside of the Lions I don't think
11:14they've played
11:16a dynamic offense like the Kansas City
11:17Chiefs. I guess you could argue maybe
11:18Vegas. They put up 30 points, so
11:21I don't know. I think this Jets defense
11:22is good and I think it's a time of
11:23possession team. Breece Hall is likely
11:25back as well. We'll talk that offense in
11:26a second, but
11:28I don't know. I don't think it's good
11:29enough to consistently stop the Chiefs
11:31to be honest with you. 10th most tight
11:32end yards per game allowed as well.
11:33You'd think this is Travis Kelsey, but
11:35his two best coverage matchups are zone
11:38and middle field close like cover three.
11:40The Jets are man to man and middle field
11:42open, so I don't think this is as good
11:43of a matchup for Kelsey as we think. Now
11:46against man to man, Xavier Worthy is the
11:48most frequently targeted chief. Like you
11:50can look into that if you want. You can
11:52go look at Xavier Worthy's game log with
11:54Rashee Rice in the lineup and you tell
11:56me if you truly believe in that, right?
11:59First couple games this game Rice left,
12:01so he had four for 70 in the game that
12:02Rice left. Has not had more than 25
12:05yards in these. Obviously Rice missed
12:06this Chargers game. Three for 11, three
12:08for 13. I can't lean into Xavier Worthy
12:11that much. I I really can't. I can't
12:12believe it even if it's, you know, a
12:14good man matchup. I can't do it. On the
12:16other side, the Jets offense versus the
12:17Chiefs defense. The Jets offense not
12:20passing a ton right, not protecting Geno
12:23Smith great, but they like throwing to
12:24the tight end spot and the Chiefs are
12:26not great against tight ends. Eight in
12:27those tight end yards per game allowed,
12:29second most tight end receptions per
12:30game allowed, top five in inline tight
12:32end target rate allowed. So
12:34should mean Mason Taylor, right? Should
12:36mean Mason Taylor, but the middle field
12:38open man coverage matchup, that's what
12:40the Chiefs do. That's the Spags defense.
12:42Doesn't really play in his favor. I
12:43would actually be looking at Kenyan
12:45Drake to make an impact in this game. I
12:47know it's been weird and the snap counts
12:49are, you know, the least exciting thing
12:50about this with Kenyan Drake cuz all of
12:53these tight ends are playing and he's
12:54not really producing much, whatever. But
12:57pretty noticeable uptick last week, near
12:5850% of snaps for the first time since
13:00week four again without Mason Taylor.
13:01Mason Taylor's the tight end one, but
13:03Sneed is going to run a good amount of
13:04routes
13:06from the slot and the Chiefs are top
13:07five in slot wide receiver target rate
13:09allowed. I think the dynamic pass
13:10catchers between the hashes can hurt the
13:13Chiefs if there's anything in the pass
13:15game that can. I don't think teams are
13:16going to have a ton of success running
13:17the ball against them. Again, the Jets
13:19three yard four yards three yards in the
13:20cloud does football, whatever. That's
13:21what they do and Breece Hall is back.
13:23They've been pretty good against the
13:24run. Seventh most running back receiving
13:26yards per game allowed, but they've been
13:28overall pretty good against the run.
13:30Really good against wide receivers,
13:31eighth fewest rush yards per game
13:32allowed. Like you can look at all these
13:34numbers. Chiefs defense really good.
13:35It's the dynamic pass catchers between
13:37the hashes that give them fits
13:39if anyone does.
13:4180 Mitchell on the outside is not that
13:43guy for the matchup, right? Garrett
13:45Wilson in concussion protocol, I don't
13:46think he's going to play.
13:48I don't love this matchup for 80
13:49Mitchell that much to be honest with
13:50you. Omar Cooper Jr. going to run more
13:52routes from the slot, but
13:53Kenyan Sneed is the guy to watch in that
13:55game, I think. And I got Kansas City at
13:57home. I'm not picking against them at
13:58Arrowhead.
14:00Detroit versus Miami, Lions offense, big
14:02thing here, 10th most pass attempts per
14:04game, fourth most pass yards per game.
14:06The Dolphins defense time of possession
14:07team and fewest pass attempts per game
14:09faced, which is weird because
14:12you'd think teams would want to throw on
14:13the Dolphins, but they've been good
14:14against receivers. They've been pretty
14:15good, especially on the outside in the
14:17past game, but.
14:20Teams want to run the ball on them.
14:21Teams want to check the ball down. The
14:22Hafley defense is zone heavy, usually
14:24helps tight ends, but
14:25this is
14:27kind of a small sample size with
14:29LaPorta, so I don't want to lean into it
14:30too much. Lions have faced the second
14:32most man to man in the NFL. So they are
14:34giving up the fifth most tight end yards
14:35per game and the fifth most tight end
14:37receptions per game, but.
14:39I.
14:42Caution leaning into the Lions pass game
14:45too much, especially because I think
14:47between the hashes the Dolphins are more
14:48susceptible. That was part of the reason
14:50we were so high on Pop Douglas against
14:51them last week. This is an Amon-Ra St.
14:53Brown game, I think it is. Even though.
14:56You know, they're really good against
14:57receivers, second fewest receiver
14:58receptions, there are fewest wide
14:59receiver yards. That partially I think
15:01is also due to game flow. Now, maybe the
15:03game flow favors the Lions in this one.
15:04I'll spoiler, I do think Detroit wins
15:06this game, but. I think it's worth
15:08noting at least that.
15:10The production against the Dolphins has
15:12been capped a little bit, I think, by
15:14the game flow. Like I think there's
15:15going to be success through the air
15:16against them, in my opinion. Now, on the
15:19other side, actually before I get there,
15:20seventh most running back receiving
15:21yards per game, sixth most running back
15:22receptions per game. It's a Gibbs
15:23receiving game, I think. Um, on the
15:26other side, the Dolphins offense versus
15:27the Lions defense.
15:29I think the Lions are going to tee off,
15:31honestly.
15:32On Malik Willis, they're allowing the
15:33fourth most sacks per game. Lions have
15:35the second most sacks per game
15:36defensively. They're going to tee off.
15:38The only thing I think could play in the
15:40uh
15:40Dolphins favor offensively.
15:43Is the fact the Lions have not been
15:44great in the red zone. 20 of 28 drives
15:46have resulted in a touchdown. Are they
15:48going to get there? I don't know.
15:49They're going to rely on Ali Gordon
15:50pretty heavily. Ninth fewest rush yards
15:52per game allowed at 96.6. Teams want to
15:54throw against the Lions and it's usually
15:56between the hashes, right? You could see
15:57here, bottom 10 or top 10 slot wide
15:59receiver target rate allowed. Dolphins
16:01are throwing there on Malik Willis at a
16:02top 10 rate. That's all Malik
16:03Washington, right? And I think this
16:04could be a game script that really
16:06benefits him, but.
16:09I don't think the Lions or the Dolphins
16:10are going to have a ton of success
16:11against that Lions defense. Like I said,
16:13I have Detroit in this game. I think
16:14they get after Malik Willis. Cleveland
16:16versus New Orleans. This is interesting.
16:19Because it's probably going to be
16:20Shadour Sanders, and the Saints are
16:22getting Kelvin Banks, Jordan Tyson,
16:25sounds like Kamara is going to play.
16:27Like the Saints are getting healthier
16:28and they've had an extra week to
16:29prepare.
16:30Now,
16:31don't want to get too in depth on the
16:33Shadour data, even though I think he's
16:34going to play. It sounds like he's going
16:35to play with Watson and concussion
16:36protocol, but
16:38top five running back target rate and
16:40inline target rate. You got to take it
16:42with a grain of salt. Stefanski's
16:43offense is different than Munkin's
16:44offense. Players were different, at
16:46least the receivers were different.
16:49But I think it's worth noting that
16:50because this Saints defense has been bad
16:52against tight ends. Sixth most tight end
16:53yards per game allowed, sixth most tight
16:55end receptions per game allowed as well.
16:57Here's the issue. Harold Fannin Jr., the
16:59day I'm recording this, popped up on the
17:01injury report with a groin injury that
17:02he dealt with last year as well. So I
17:05don't know if it's the same injury. It
17:06was a groin injury last year.
17:08If he plays, this is a Harold Fannin
17:09game. I think this is a huge Harold
17:10Fannin game. But
17:13I don't know if he's going to play.
17:15And that to me would be the big edge
17:16that the Browns could confidently lean
17:18into. The other thing, the Saints run
17:20defense has been really bad. Fourth most
17:22rush yards per game allowed at 100 39
17:25193 139.4, seventh most yards per carry
17:28at 4.81. Here's the issue. The Browns
17:30have been so bad on the ground. Maybe
17:33Quinn Sean Judkins and Dylan Samson get
17:34it going. It is worth noting, you know,
17:36since the addition of Dylan Samson,
17:38Quinn Sean Judkins has been a little
17:40better overall. It has not been super
17:42noticeable, but you know, you got the
17:43game against Tennessee where he had 17
17:45for 96. That was encouraging, but then
17:47he had like less than 3 yards a carry.
17:49So
17:50maybe Samson's return helps this
17:52offense, especially on the ground.
17:54But I think Harold Fannin will be the
17:56big X factor in the pass game if he were
17:58to play, right? He also sees an increase
18:00in frequency against middle field
18:01closed. Saints run a ton of cover three.
18:03Last year 0.25 targets per out run
18:04against middle field closed overall.
18:07He is the guy in this game if he plays.
18:09That's who I'd be looking at. Now on the
18:10other side, the Saints offense against
18:11the Browns defense,
18:13this is interesting because there's a
18:14lot of unproven stuff here. If Kelvin
18:16Banks is back, that's huge. If Jordan
18:18Tyson's back, all of a sudden that 's a
18:19dynamic pass catcher for Shuck.
18:21Third most pass attempts per game,
18:22they're throwing the ball. Eighth fewest
18:24rush attempts per game, but the Browns
18:26have been really bad on the ground. So,
18:28what the Browns are bad at does not
18:30match up with what the Saints are good
18:32at. That is my worry for looking at this
18:35game from an offensive success
18:37standpoint for the Saints.
18:39Seventh fewest pass yards per game
18:40allowed in Cleveland. They're getting
18:41after the quarterback.
18:43And honestly, the Saints don't test
18:45teams on the outside. Now, maybe that
18:47changes with Jordan Tyson, but I also do
18:49think it's worth noting that the Browns
18:51are allowing top 10 slot target rate,
18:53and that could be an area where Jordan
18:55Tyson takes advantage of. They've been
18:56good against running back receiving,
18:58they've been good against the pass.
19:00Not a ton of tight end production.
19:02Pretty good in the red zone. Like what
19:03something's going to give? Something's
19:05going to give in this game. Now, they've
19:07given up the ninth most tight end yards
19:08per game allowed. That's a lot of slot
19:10production as well. What's weird, and
19:12I've talked about this a couple times
19:14with the Saints when they played more
19:15man-heavy teams,
19:17Fan and Johnson are targeted way more
19:20frequently than most tight ends in
19:22man-to-man. That is not as bad of its
19:24matchup man-to-man for Fan and Johnson
19:26by any means. And I actually think the
19:28Saints have an edge through the air
19:30because of the the
19:34I don't know, the the deep room I I'll
19:36call it a deep room right now of Tyson's
19:37playing
19:39of pass catchers where you don't have to
19:41look Denzel Ward's way. You don't have
19:43to If you feel like Tyson Campbell is
19:45going to outmatch Tyson Ward, you don't
19:46have to look there. You have other guys
19:48you can lean on. And ultimately, I
19:49honestly think that's the difference for
19:51this game. And I honestly, as much as I
19:52don't want to do it, I think New
19:54Orleans, who's getting healthier, wins
19:55this game at home. Now, moving to the
19:57Giants and Eagles.
20:00Giants offense loves to throw to the
20:01slot. Top five slot target rate. Isaiah
20:03Likely, 0.28 targets per out run from
20:05the slot. 80% more than 80% of his
20:07routes from the slot. Second most slot
20:09routes overall at the tight end
20:10position. Guys,
20:12Isaiah Likely's not running routes like
20:14a tight end. He's a receiver. Running
20:15routes like a receiver, I should say.
20:16So, when you see that, the Eagles have
20:18the top five the top five slot slot wide
20:21receiver target rate. It's actually the
20:22highest in the NFL.
20:25It's Isaiah Likely. Like Neighbor is
20:26just getting targeted there more
20:28frequently, but he's running way less
20:30routes from the slot.
20:32This to me is a likely game, even though
20:34the Eagles have the fifth fewest tight
20:36end yards per game allowed and the third
20:37fewest tight end receptions per game
20:38allowed. I want to go look at the game
20:40logs against the Philadelphia Eagles
20:41because I do think
20:43some of those numbers are skewed by
20:46some of the players that they've played,
20:48right? Like there haven't been a ton of
20:50true dynamic pass catchers at the tight
20:52end position against the Eagles. If you
20:54want to say Chigo Conkwo, be my guest.
20:57Dallas, no.
20:59I'm not even going to count Carolina.
21:00Carolina Tommy Trimble had 4 for 46 and
21:02two touchdowns though. Brenton Strange,
21:04that you get into it, 7 for 68. I don't
21:06even think Higbee is
21:085 for 67. That's pretty good. You had
21:10Colson Loveland, but that was also Case
21:11Keenum playing in that game. And then it
21:13was the Titans and the Commanders again.
21:15I don't think they've seen a tight end
21:17of Isaiah Likely's caliber and the
21:19scheme makes me believe the production
21:21will be there. They're also giving up
21:23the fourth most wide receiver yards per
21:24game and the sixth most wide receiver
21:26receptions per game. Malik Neighbors all
21:27day long. On the other side, Joe Milton
21:29is starting. No, before I do,
21:31Cam Akers got a DNP on Thursday, would
21:33likely be Devin Singletary as the lead
21:35back.
21:37Eric Gray number two, at least as it
21:38stands right now, unless there's a
21:39running back trade 72 hours before a
21:41game. I don't think there's going to be.
21:43We'll see though. Maybe I'm wrong. On
21:44the other side, Joe Milton is starting.
21:46Smith, Wicks both did not practice
21:47Thursday. Saquon did in a limited
21:50fashion. If I had to guess, Smith and
21:52Wicks probably not going to play. Saquon
21:53probably will, right?
21:55The Eagles offense not running the ball
21:57a lot, not running the ball effectively.
21:58The Giants have been bad on the ground
22:00though. Makes me believe if Saquon is
22:02back, they lean into him.
22:04If he is healthy. Like when Saquon has
22:06played and granted a lot of these games
22:08were with Jalen Hurts, you got to take
22:09that with a grain of salt. Like the dude
22:10is touching the ball. Like he
22:12week one had 15 carries, next week
22:14against Chicago 15 carries, 13 carries
22:17against Washington, and then he was
22:18going to have a huge game against Dallas
22:19in my my opinion
22:22before he got hurt. So I believe the
22:24Eagles want to run the ball if they can
22:26hand the ball off to Saquon Barkley.
22:29That is where I'm at.
22:31Now, in terms of the target rates
22:33allowed by the New York Giants, it's a
22:35top five wide receiver, top five slot
22:37wide receiver target rate. And you go
22:39look at the games for Mack Hollins. He's
22:41been playing better as of late.
22:42Back-to-back games with six plus
22:44catches, back-to-back games with 50 plus
22:46yards. That to me has to be the number
22:48one for
22:49Philadelphia.
22:51But those were Tanner McKee games. Is
22:52Joe Milton going to have the same trends
22:54as Tanner McKee? We don't know. Like we
22:55really don't know. Joe Milton I believe
22:57has one full start in the NFL. So we
22:59can't confidently lean into that. And
23:01the Giants bottom 10 receiver yards per
23:03game allowed, bottom 10 in tight end
23:04yards per game allowed, bottom 10 in
23:05running back receiving yards per game
23:07allowed. They haven't been great in the
23:08red zone,
23:09but at the same time I think they're
23:11going to control the clock enough to
23:12keep the Eagles out. While Joe Milton
23:14does scare me a little more than a
23:15Tanner McKee does,
23:17I think an extra week of prep, I think
23:18the Giants are
23:20you know outside of the the season
23:21ending injuries as healthy as they can
23:22be right now, I got the Giants on the
23:24road against Philly. I think that's
23:25going to be a fun game to watch. Moving
23:27down to Rams versus Commanders. Really
23:30interesting trends here with the Rams.
23:31So if you've looked at the Commanders'
23:33numbers all year long,
23:36they started really good against running
23:38backs. Leo Chenal, they had their
23:40defensive tackles.
23:42They're all hurt. And recently they have
23:44not been good against running backs. The
23:46last two games, it's been 30.7 fantasy
23:49points per game. The last four or so
23:52yeah last four, a 26.4 fantasy points
23:55per game. That's eighth most in the NFL.
23:58They've been bad. So Kyren Williams I
24:00love this for him. But I also really
24:01like Blake Corum.
24:03out, right?
24:05Like we are positive game script.
24:07Without Devonta Adams, the Rams are
24:08running the ball about 32 times a game
24:10compared to 24 with Adams in the lineup.
24:12Blake Corum is getting more involved.
24:13Last two games, 70 plus yards, 11 plus
24:16touchdowns, touchdown in each of them.
24:1811 sorry 11 plus touches, not 11 plus
24:19touchdowns. 11 plus touches, touchdown
24:22in each of those last two games.
24:24I really do think the Rams have some
24:25success on the ground against this
24:26Commanders' defense. Now, it is worth
24:28noting teams are throwing the ball at a
24:30ridiculous rate on the Commanders, but
24:31Stafford
24:32hasn' been throwing the ball a lot
24:34honestly like hasn't been super
24:36successful as of late and is dealing
24:38with an injury. So he hasn't cracked 200
24:40yd in back-to-back weeks and these are
24:42the Raiders defense has been bad against
24:44the pass. Chargers have been fine.
24:46Raiders defense been bad against the
24:47pass. That I think is partially due to
24:49no Adams, but
24:51they're going to lean into the run game
24:52a little bit more. They have the 10th
24:53most rush yards per game in the NFL.
24:55Like I think this is a run game for the
24:57Rams. Now, when they throw the ball
25:01it's Puka Nacua. Now, Tutu Atwell
25:02Ferguson sounds like it's going to be
25:03back too. I'm fascinated to see what
25:04that does to these trends, especially
25:06because the Commanders are giving up the
25:07third most tight end yards per game,
25:09sixth most tight end receptions per
25:10game. So like yeah, you want to lean
25:12into the Rams tight ends, go ahead.
25:13You're flipping a four-sided coin to
25:15figure out which one is going to do
25:17well. So I don't know. I'm not leaning
25:18too much into that, but the matchup is
25:19there. On the other side, Commanders
25:21offense, 10th fewest rush yards per
25:24game, ninth most or sorry, 10th fewest
25:26pass yards per game, ninth most rush
25:27yards per game. They want to run the
25:28ball. Top five wide receiver rate in the
25:30slot. Rams allowing for a top five slot
25:32receiver rate. Now, I'm fascinated to
25:34see what the Rams do at corner because
25:36they play a good amount of man. They're
25:37going to man up on you and my guess is
25:39Miles Garrett's back, so if he's back,
25:40they're probably just going to say, hey
25:42let's go let's pin our ears back, we can
25:43rush four and do whatever in the back
25:44end. But in the man world
25:47with Jaylen Watson out for the season
25:50I'm fascinated to see how much
25:51McDuffie's on the outside. If McDuffie's
25:53on the outside
25:56Daniel's just throwing to the slot.
25:58He's throwing to the slot. Now, it's
25:59Diggs, but it's also Antonio Williams
26:01who ran a bunch of routes from the
26:03outside, but some from the slot. And as
26:05we outline in the fantasy breakdown
26:07for Antonio Williams the guy was the
26:10number one receiver in Washington. They
26:12threw the ball eight times in the second
26:13half, so that production is capped at
26:14five catches for 54 yd. Highest target
26:17share, most routes run, season high in
26:18snaps.
26:19Antonio Williams to me is the number one
26:21wide out in Washington right now. Now,
26:23the Rams have been really good against
26:24the pass, so I'm not telling you he's
26:25going to have a big game, but in those
26:27man scenarios, if he avoids Trent
26:29McDuffie
26:30that is where I'd be looking. And if
26:31McDuffie's on him, it's going to be
26:33Diggs. It's it's going to be one of
26:34those too. I also don't mind Chigoziem
26:35Conkwo between the hashes, but in this
26:38game, I I'd be shocked if the Rams
26:41let that go, to be honest with you, and
26:44didn't run the ball all game long on
26:46Washington. Even on the road, I got the
26:47Rams against the Commanders. Houston
26:49[snorts] versus Chargers. Texans
26:51offense, 10th most pass attempts per
26:52game. Nothing crazy in this game, but I
26:54I'm going to note a couple things. 10th
26:55most pass attempts per game, seventh
26:57most pass yards per game, fifth fewest
26:58rush attempts per game, fourth fewest
27:00rush yards per game. No David
27:01Montgomery. They're going to want to
27:02pass the ball. Now, Chargers defense,
27:04top five in top 10, excuse me,
27:06in middle field open.
27:08Typically, that's been the Nico Collins
27:09coverage. And
27:12in terms of frequency, he is the it's
27:14his best coverage matchup, but
27:19the distribution of the football after
27:21the Marvin Harrison Jr. addition's been
27:23weird.
27:24Like Collins really hasn't been doing
27:26much. Now, walking into that game
27:27against the Jaguars, I remember we made
27:29the point, we outlined it, CJ Stroud was
27:32averaging like 300 pass yards per game
27:34with Collins in the lineup. And it's not
27:36like Stroud has been bad. Like he had
27:37300 plus against Jacksonville as well,
27:40but 153 against the Giants?
27:43I don't think that happens again. You
27:44look at Nico Collins, he got clamped up
27:46by Deonte Banks in that game. I mean,
27:48the guy had two catches for 6 yd. Don't
27:50think that's going to happen again. So,
27:52to me, this is a Nico Collins bounce
27:54back game. Even though he only had three
27:56catches against Jacksonville, down the
27:57field he still is a threat. Now, on the
27:59other side of the ball,
28:03the I don't know what to do with the
28:04Chargers. Like I don't know what to
28:05believe,
28:07because the Texans have been bad on the
28:09outside. Like you can see
28:11eighth eighth most pass attempts per
28:12game forced, fifth most pass yards per
28:14game allowed, third most wide receiver
28:16yards per game allowed, second most wide
28:18receiver receptions per game allowed,
28:20top 10 outside wide receiver target rate
28:22allowed.
28:23They are so bad on the outside and
28:25through the air, the Chargers are
28:26might be worse offensively there.
28:29So, I can't confidently lean into the
28:31Chargers really anywhere.
28:32Really anywhere. Eighth fewest pass
28:34yards per game.
28:35What can they cook up on an extra week
28:37of prep? Like I I can't I can't
28:39confidently
28:41lean into them. And this Texans defense
28:43is really really good getting after the
28:44quarterback, obviously, but the Chargers
28:46offense has not protected Herbert.
28:48Second most sacks per game allowed in
28:50the Texans defense, three sacks per game
28:51defensively.
28:53They stop the run, they get after the
28:54quarterback. I don't think the Chargers
28:56have much if any success to be honest
28:57with you against the Texans this week.
28:59Texans are also really good against
29:01tight ends. That's the one place Justin
29:02Herbert looks frequently.
29:04To me, this is not a big Chargers
29:05offense game. I can't really lean into
29:07it anywhere, but I do trust Nico Collins
29:08to bounce back. And you know, I I don't
29:10mind CJ Stroud in this game. With
29:11Collins in the lineup, generally
29:12speaking, he's been pretty good. I think
29:14the Texans
29:16beat the Chargers. Moving to Vegas and
29:18San Francisco, this is an interesting
29:19one. The Raiders offense
29:21throwing the ball a bunch, fifth most
29:23pass yards per game, second fewest rush
29:24yards per game. Now,
29:26you would think after last week, it's
29:28Mike Washington Jr.'s backfield. And
29:30yes, maybe that's starting to turn. But
29:32it's worth noting that even with all of
29:34these snap count stats, even with all
29:37these routes, even with, you know,
29:39facing a stacked box,
29:41Jenty had 65 yards receiving. And the
29:43San Francisco 49ers are awful against
29:46running backs in the receiving game,
29:47right? That to me is the most important
29:49part in this. I don't know where it's
29:51going. Most running back receiving yards
29:52per game allowed. There's the stat I'm
29:53looking for. And the most running back
29:54receptions per game allowed.
29:56This is a Jenty receiving game, I think.
29:58I think the 9ers are going to put a lot
30:00of attention on Bowers as they should,
30:01right?
30:03This to me is a game where Kirk Cousins
30:04gets the ball out quick to Ashton Jenty
30:06and sees what he can do. You can go look
30:08at some of these game logs against the
30:0949ers. I mean, the running back
30:11production has been through the roof in
30:14the in the receiving department, I
30:15should say. Like you can go back
30:17uh Bijan Robinson had 60 yards. White
30:20had 30 and a touchdown. Nothing crazy
30:22from Seattle. Harvey had 10 catches for
30:2468 yards. Nine combined catches from the
30:26Arizona Cardinals and a touchdown.
30:28Nothing crazy from Miami. And obviously
30:29that was the game uh believe it was the
30:31game to
30:32H? No, maybe it wasn't. But regardless.
30:34No, it wasn't actually. But still,
30:36nothing crazy for Miami, and then Rams
30:38didn't do much. There's been some pretty
30:39heavy receiving games against
30:42the 49ers defense. And I think it's very
30:44clear to see when, you know, Raheem
30:45Morris plays this middle field closed,
30:47cover three, keeping everything in front
30:48of you,
30:50it, the ball down to Jenty.
30:52the ball down to Jenty. Like that I
30:53think is going to happen as well as some
30:54design screen plays. Now, they are
30:58getting Nick Bosa back, which I think is
30:59a huge lift for this team. I think they
31:02tremendously, tremendously need an extra
31:05defensive piece, but don't forget
31:07DeForest Buckner is also making his
31:10debut making his season debut for the
31:1249ers. He obviously already played it
31:13for the team. So, they're going to stop
31:15up the run, I think, even more. Cousins
31:17is going to have to air the ball out
31:18even more.
31:19Pass volume for Bowers, Jenty should be
31:22there. Should be there. I'd be shocked
31:24if it wasn't. Now, on the other side,
31:269ers throw to the tight end position.
31:27Raiders are bad against tight ends. It's
31:29as simple as that on the in the pass
31:30game, fourth most tight end receptions
31:31per game allowed, top 10 inline tight
31:33end target rate allowed. That's where
31:34Purdy likes to go with the ball as well
31:35as the running back spot. Kittle, that's
31:38the guy.
31:39Now,
31:41Evans,
31:43Deebo doesn't sound like they're going
31:44to be good to go. And we saw the effect
31:47that that could have on an offense, but
31:48McCaffrey, it sounds like Spot at the
31:50early portion of practice on Thursday
31:52should be okay for this game, but even
31:55if he's not, I expect a heavy dose of
31:57Kayvon Black. Do you see the game plan
32:00for that Falcons game? It's like I think
32:03they win that game if McCaffrey doesn't
32:04get hurt. Honestly, I do. I do. Like he
32:07was extremely efficient in the first
32:09half and he was getting a lot of
32:09receiving production. And then
32:12Kayvon Black had 12 for 63. They're
32:14running all over them. And I think the
32:16Raiders run defense is
32:17can't stop them. Second most rush yards
32:19per game allowed, most yards per carry
32:21at 5.11. 5.11 yards per carry, guys.
32:24That's crazy. That's crazy.
32:26I think the 49ers really lean into that
32:28run game, and I think it will be more of
32:29a split, especially with McCaffrey
32:30nursing the injury, but I think that's a
32:32big advantage and I think San Francisco,
32:34especially at home off a bye, I'd be
32:36shocked if they lost two straight. Now,
32:38Green Bay versus New England, game of
32:39the week right now. And again, Sunday
32:40night football, Monday night football
32:41breakdowns, separate videos. Make sure
32:43you subscribe so you don't miss any more
32:44of those.
32:45A.J. Brown,
32:47Tre'Von Henderson no practice Thursday.
32:48I don't think that I'd be shocked they
32:49played at this point, right?
32:52Packers offense throwing the ball a
32:53bunch. Third most pass attempts per
32:54game, 39. Third most pass yards per game
32:56at almost 281. Fewest rush attempts,
32:58fewest rush yards per game. Now, it's
33:00changed a bit with Josh Jacobs, but the
33:02production has not been good. Like I'm
33:04just going to call a spade a spade here.
33:05Production's not been good. 21 carries
33:08for 39 yards against Carolina, who's one
33:09of the worst run defenses in the NFL.
33:12It's not there. Now, he scored twice,
33:13but the production efficiency is not
33:15there. Patriots run defense really good,
33:17six fewest rush yards per game allowed,
33:1910th lowest yards per carry allowed.
33:20They're really good, but they're not
33:21great through the air, right? They're
33:23not great through the air. They get
33:24after the quarterback, but 10th most
33:26wide receiver receptions per game
33:27allowed, 10th most receiver yards per
33:29game allowed. And Jordan Love loves to
33:31no pun intended uh keep the ball on the
33:33outside. Top 10 outside wide receiver
33:34target rate. Obviously, Christian Watson
33:36right now dealing with an injury. I
33:37think he's going to play, but if he
33:38doesn't, Matthew Golden. Even if he
33:39does, Matthew Golden. I think he'll
33:41avoid the Gonzalez shadow as well. So,
33:43those are the two guys to watch. Love is
33:46going to air the ball out on the
33:46outside, and I honestly think he's going
33:47to have success. I really do. Moving to
33:49the Patriots offense, A.J. Brown,
33:51Tre'Von Henderson no practice Thursday,
33:54right? I would be surprised if they
33:55played at this point. Now, Drake May is
33:57playing unbelievable football with
33:58whoever's out there. Mac Collins is
34:00starting to practice up again. Like he
34:01could be like
34:03things are turning in the right
34:05direction for New England, but they're
34:06not passing the ball a lot. Eighth
34:07fewest pass attempts per game, fourth
34:09most rush attempts per game. And I don't
34:10blame them.
34:12Like they don't have their number one,
34:13they don't have their number two. Hunter
34:14Henry's been banged up. The only thing
34:16they've they're throwing outside above
34:18average and the Packers are also bottom
34:20five or top five in outside receiver
34:22target rate allowed.
34:24It's a top 10 running back target rate,
34:25I guess. You know, Jonathan Gannon
34:27defense is going to play a little more
34:28zone, but it's nothing crazy. Like I
34:30think this Packers defense has been
34:31really, really good. And you know, Micah
34:33Parsons with or without him, they've
34:35been very good. Evan Williams has been
34:36very good. And that's been amidst some
34:38injuries. Packers are top 10 in sacks
34:41per game. They're facing the seventh
34:42most pass attempts per game, but
34:44allowing the tenth fewest pass yards per
34:47game. The only schematic thing here is
34:50the zone run game. And the Patriots are
34:52they're going to run a bunch they're
34:54going to run both concepts a bunch.
34:56They're very bad in zone runs, the
34:57Packers. That's really been the bane of
34:59their existence.
35:01Thought uh Carolina was going to have a
35:02ton of success. They had some success,
35:03not a ton. Atlanta said the same thing,
35:05they had a lot of success.
35:07If New England leans into that, I think
35:08they have success. But they've still
35:10been really good overall. Like they're
35:12they're not allowing a ton of receiver
35:13yards production. On the outside, sure,
35:15you have fourth most wide receiver
35:17receptions per game, but at zone,
35:19receptions are going to be up a little
35:20bit. Second fewest tight end yards per
35:21game allowed, second fewest tight end
35:23receptions per game allowed, bottom five
35:24slot target rate allowed where Drake
35:25Maye has increased without AJ Brown and
35:27DeVonta Adams. And that makes sense. If
35:28you don't have your outside receivers,
35:30they're going to keep the ball between
35:30the hashes.
35:31To me,
35:33even in New England, like I think a lot
35:35is going right for Green Bay right now.
35:37I really do think a lot is going right
35:39for Green Bay. And it it pains me to
35:40pick against a team that is figuring it
35:42out offensively like New England is, but
35:45I think Green Bay now has enough
35:47defensively and has some semblance of of
35:49a
35:50player in the run game that can push
35:51them over the top. And finally,
35:52Cardinals versus Seahawks switch insides
35:54on you. The Cardinals offense is going
35:56to throw the ball a ton, but obviously
35:57Gardner Minshew is starting in this
35:59game. That changes some things, right?
36:01When Michael Wilson and Gardner Minshew
36:03connected on five of seven passes last
36:05week, it made you believe maybe this
36:07could be the guy on the outside. As you
36:09can see, it's a bottom five running back
36:11target rate on Arizona's end with the
36:13ninth most running back receptions
36:14allowed on Seattle's end. So something
36:16has to give there. But as I've been
36:18saying before last week's Monday night
36:21game, before the 49ers game, I talked
36:23about it after the Commanders game,
36:26the Seahawks are susceptible to big
36:29plays on the perimeter. We saw it with
36:31Rome Odunze, we saw it with Mike Evans,
36:33we saw it with Terry McLaurin.
36:35Nothing makes me believe Michael Wilson
36:37won't be able to do something similar in
36:39this game. The only thing that I can go
36:41look at, and again, it's Jacoby Brissett
36:43playing quarterback and it's not Gardner
36:45So you can't, you know, make the full
36:46comparison. Is week, that was week two,
36:49where he only had two catches for 18
36:51yards. But the guy had seven targets and
36:52obviously Marvin Harrison Jr. was on the
36:54roster. It's a long-winded way of me
36:56saying I think Gardner Minshew is going
36:57to start to look his way a little bit
36:59more and I think this is a matchup that
37:01is not as bad as it seems. Even though
37:03you look at the Seahawks like fewest
37:04pass yards per game allowed, fewest wide
37:06receiver yards per game. They're so
37:07good, right? The only place they're
37:09generally susceptible is
37:11in the pass game to running backs. And
37:13Tyler Allgeier had a few targets with
37:14Gardner Minshew in at quarterback. But
37:17that to me is the big edge there. And
37:19they're going to be airing the ball out.
37:20Like I don't think they're going to have
37:21a ton of success on the ground.
37:22Obviously Jeremiah Love is on IR.
37:24There's a reason they have the most pass
37:26attempts per game. They're trailing a
37:27good amount of the games, right? That's
37:29what they're going to do. And the
37:29Seahawks middle field open zone look
37:31should help Trey McBride a little bit as
37:33well. Now on the other side, the
37:34Seahawks offense versus the Cardinals
37:36defense, they're throwing to the outside
37:37at a top five rate and not really
37:40throwing between the hashes. Obviously
37:41Drew Lock is starting this game. We have
37:43a smaller sample size with Drew Lock in
37:46at quarterback, right? You obviously had
37:48the majority of week one and then week
37:49two. JSN has had pretty solid games in
37:53both of those. Actually looking at it
37:54now, two of his four highest in terms of
37:57yardage, one of his highest overall.
37:59Actually the highest overall, 955 155
38:02against two the Arizona Cardinals. So
38:04JSN is going to be fine. I'm not worried
38:05about him. I'm not worried about Drew
38:06Lock assuming he plays. He is dealing
38:07with an injury.
38:09But this Cardinals defense that's
38:10extremely zone heavy, I think is also
38:12going to feed into the running back
38:13production. If you didn't watch the
38:15fantasy video, I'll pull up the little
38:16note I had here. Seahawks running backs,
38:19it's
38:20to me a carbon copy, not a carbon copy,
38:22but it's close to a copy of the Walker
38:24Charbonnet split from last year where
38:25Charbonnet is still in the Charbonnet
38:26role, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the one,
38:29I think. And maybe it was because it's
38:31Charbonnet's first game back, maybe
38:33that's why. But
38:35Price out snapped him, out touched him,
38:37ran six more routes, had more first and
38:39second down snaps. Where Charbonnet was
38:41better, overall efficiency, right? More
38:43touches in the red zone and then and
38:44third and fourth down. I think when you
38:46want to get into pass game and what that
38:48could mean, Jevonte Price is the guy to
38:51me. That is a guy in the pass game to
38:52watch. Obviously, both of them could
38:54have an impact, but I would be looking
38:55at that. Now,
38:57they are bottom five in running back
38:58target rate allowed, which is worth
38:59noting. They're not allowing a ton of
39:01overall production to running backs
39:03through the air, but
39:06or sorry, Sam Darnold Drew Lock is going
39:07to have to check the ball down somewhere
39:09even though it's the fewest running back
39:10receptions per game allowed. I don't
39:11think that matchup tells the full story
39:14and I would be looking at the Seahawks
39:15to potentially exploit that because
39:17there really is nowhere else to go in
39:19the pass game right now. They've really
39:20been struggling over the top. It's going
39:22to be the JSN show, but overall, I think
39:25that is what they look at. Now, they're
39:26not facing a ton of pass attempts per
39:28game. I think the Seahawks are probably
39:29going to lean into the ground as well
39:30here at home off a loss. I can't pick
39:33against the Seahawks, though I do think
39:34Gardner Minshew could give them a little
39:36trouble. I'm not picking against Drew
39:37Lock in the Seahawks. If you enjoyed
39:38this breakdown, make sure to leave a
39:40like. We will see you next time. God

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