We’ve Seen This Before… Right Before Russia Invaded Ukraine — Transcript

Full transcript

1. 0:01The border regions are getting tense.
2. 0:03As the tensions between NATO  and Russia start to escalate,
3. 0:06with hybrid attacks on the rise and rhetoric  at an explosive high, NATO’s borders with
4. 0:12Russia are becoming potential flashpoints.  Build-ups are happening on both sides.
5. 0:16But Russia has just gone all in,  and it’s making some major moves.
6. 0:21Just what in the hell is Russia doing at the  NATO borders? And if it’s as bad as it looks,
7. 0:26is NATO ready to deal with what may be coming?
8. 0:29These are big questions.
9. 0:30And we’ll start with the first  of them because, as it turns out,
10. 0:33Russia has been doing a lot of worrying  things in several different territories.
11. 0:38October 19 saw the Kyiv Post publish a  report in which it revealed that Russia
12. 0:42has been replenishing its military equipment  at storage locations all across the country.
13. 0:47That alone wouldn’t be especially  newsworthy. Russia has been pulling
14. 0:51equipment out of storage for years, so it’s no  surprise that it is attempting to replenish.
15. 0:56It’s the locations that matter here.
16. 0:59Storage facilities that are less  than 500 kilometers from Estonia
17. 1:02and Latvia are being activated.  So is a location that sits just
18. 1:07185 kilometers away from Russia’s  border with Finland. All of this has
19. 1:10been confirmed by open-source intelligence  organizations, and it tells us one thing.
20. 1:15Russia isn’t just building up its stockpiles.
21. 1:18That build-up is happening right  under NATO’s collective nose.
22. 1:22There’s a lot to cover here, but perhaps the  biggest lowlight of Russia’s build-up is that it
23. 1:26is sending T-90s to the border. That’s according  to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, which reported
24. 1:32on October 16 that Russia’s most modern tanks are  heading to the 22nd Central Tank Reserve Base.
25. 1:40That base is in Bui, in the Kostroma Oblast,  around 500 kilometers from NATO’s borders.
26. 1:46Satellite images show that the base  is now filled with brand-new T-90Ms,
27. 1:51along with BTR-82A armored personnel carriers.
28. 1:55It looks like Russia has been busy  building as many of its tanks as possible.
29. 1:59When Russia invaded Ukraine, it was  producing between 66 and 85 T-90Ms annually,
30. 2:04after sending this modernized version of the  T-90 into serial production shortly before.
31. 2:09However, that alone wouldn’t be enough to  fill the 22nd Central Tank Reserve Base,
32. 2:13especially when some of those  tanks head into Ukraine.
33. 2:16Production must have increased.
34. 2:18Indeed, it did. On July 20, 2025, Military Watch  Magazine reported that Russia had tripled its
35. 2:24production of T-90Ms, reaching a point where  it was building up to 300 per year in 2024.
36. 2:30At the time, we thought this increase in  production was an attempt to make up for
37. 2:34Russia’s massive tank losses  in Ukraine. As of October 20,
38. 2:3812,425 of Russia’s tanks had been  disabled or destroyed inside Ukraine.
39. 2:44But now, we may be seeing the real  reason behind the increase in production.
40. 2:48Russia didn’t only need more T-90s to  send into Ukraine. It also needed new
41. 2:53tanks it could send into storage, just a few  hundred kilometers away from the NATO border.
42. 2:58Before we move on, the word “storage” is key here.
43. 3:01As the Kyiv Post points out, these tanks and  armored vehicles have been sent to storage
44. 3:05facilities. That means they aren’t actively  deployed with any military units. So, for now,
45. 3:10at least, there is no imminent danger of  a tank-based invasion into NATO territory.
46. 3:16But Russia is clearly building up to  something, and none of it is good.
47. 3:19The T-90Ms may grab all of the headlines,
48. 3:22but we’re also seeing tanks and armored  vehicles head to other storage facilities.
49. 3:26At the 349th Central Tank Storage Base,
50. 3:29which is located in Topchikha in the Altai  Krai region, about 78 refurbished T-72B3s,
51. 3:36along with over 100 BMP-2 infantry fighting  vehicles, have arrived since June 2026.
52. 3:42We have seen something similar at Russia’s 6018th  base, where BMP-3s and BMP-4s are being amassed.
53. 3:49And in Karelia, which hosts the base closest  to Finland of all those receiving equipment,
54. 3:54Malva artillery systems and Giatsint-K
55. 3:57self-propelled artillery have been  arriving since sometime in 2025.
56. 4:01There is no mistaking what we’re seeing here.
57. 4:03The question is: how?
58. 4:05Hasn’t Russia all but depleted a huge  amount of its tank, armored vehicle,
59. 4:09and artillery stockpiles  in its war against Ukraine?
60. 4:13It has, and that’s one of the things that  makes this border build-up so interesting.
61. 4:18As United24 Media points out, most of what  we’re seeing head into storage on NATO’s borders
62. 4:23isn’t old equipment that has been withdrawn from  Ukraine or transferred from elsewhere in Russia.
63. 4:29Most of it is either right off the shop  floor or has been recently refurbished.
64. 4:34In other words, a huge chunk of what Russia is  building right now heads into storage rather
65. 4:40than into Ukraine. This may sound crazy at  first. But when you take a closer look at what
66. 4:44has happened during the war in Ukraine,  it starts to make a little more sense.
67. 4:48A moment ago, we told you that Russia  has lost over 12,400 tanks in Ukraine.
68. 4:52That alone is an indicator that  the strategies that Russia likes
69. 4:56to use haven’t worked well in a war where  drones have become the dominant weapon.
70. 5:00Tanks and armored vehicles, though still  in use, are large and slow-moving enough
71. 5:05to be targeted by drones if they get anywhere  near the front lines. Indeed, as RBC-Ukraine
72. 5:10reported back in August, Russia has scaled back  on its armored assaults for just this reason.
73. 5:15The math looks pretty simple here.
74. 5:17Russia is using fewer tanks and armored  vehicles in Ukraine because it’s worried
75. 5:22that it will lose them. So, fewer of these  vehicles get sent into Ukraine, leaving those
76. 5:27rolling off the production lines free to be sent  to storage facilities that are on NATO’s borders.
77. 5:32We don’t know if this means that Russia thinks the
78. 5:35tactics that didn’t work in Ukraine  would work in a fight against NATO.
79. 5:39But what we do see here is the continuation of
80. 5:41a border build-up that has  been happening for a while.
81. 5:44Back in June, news broke that Russia had  been building up or reinvigorating bases
82. 5:48that United24 Media says could combine  to house 115,000 soldiers. And again,
83. 5:54all of these bases are worryingly  close to NATO’s borders.
84. 5:57Several of these bases are within a few  hundred kilometers of the borders that
85. 6:00Russia shares with Finland and Norway.  There are also bases being built up on
86. 6:04the Baltic borders, including several  in the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.
87. 6:08Keep that exclave in mind.
88. 6:10There are other developments there  that we’ll be getting to later.
89. 6:13Perhaps the most worrying thing in all of this is  that Russia’s border build-up isn’t limited to a
90. 6:17single location. We’re seeing storage facilities  being filled and new military infrastructure
91. 6:22cropping up close to the borders of about half  a dozen NATO nations, which suggests one thing:
92. 6:28Russia is preparing a multi-axis approach  to whatever it has planned for NATO.
93. 6:32Let’s come back to the Kostroma base for a moment.
94. 6:35As the Lansing Institute points out, this base  isn’t immediately adjacent to NATO’s border.
95. 6:40It’s about 500 kilometers away, which  could fool some into thinking that it
96. 6:43either wouldn’t be as relevant as  other bases if a war broke out,
97. 6:47or that the material stored there would be  dedicated to a fight in the Baltic region.
98. 6:51Neither is the case.
99. 6:52“Equipment accumulated there could  support strategic reserves that could
100. 6:56be transferred to various directions  if necessary,” the institute declares.
101. 7:01How Russia organizes itself, what its transport  links look like, and where it intends to attack
102. 7:06could all influence how this particular  storage facility is ultimately used. Russia
103. 7:11can keep NATO guessing, somewhat, and that’s  almost as worrying as the build-up itself.
104. 7:15So, we see tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery  heading far too close to the NATO border for
105. 7:21comfort. But there’s a lot more that Russia is  doing near NATO borders that needs attention.
106. 7:26Take what it’s doing in Belarus as an example.
107. 7:29The nation that Putin used to  help stage his initial invasion
108. 7:32of Ukraine has also been doing some very  worrying things, all of which seem to be
109. 7:36in service of a potential Russian  invasion into the NATO territory.
110. 7:41Before we get into that, this is a reminder that
111. 7:42you’re watching The Military Show. We  make videos to show how power moves,
112. 7:47both on the battlefield and, in this case,  in preparation for a battlefield to come.
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115. 7:59In mid-October, an interesting report emerged.
116. 8:0248 pages long and filled with startling  details, the report alleged that not only
117. 8:07is Belarus conducting a build-up of its  own, but that the nation may be ready to
118. 8:11support a Russian military operation against  a NATO country as early as the spring of 2027.
119. 8:18The report says that Belarus is being militarized,
120. 8:20from society up, to get the  population ready for a fight.
121. 8:24Ideological and psychological  preparations are already being made,
122. 8:28and the Belarusian economy is even  being converted into a military economy,
123. 8:32all alongside legal changes that are  linked to a potential upcoming war.
124. 8:37Examples of this militarization have been coming  in thick and fast over the last few months.
125. 8:42Back in May, Belarusian President Alexander  Lukashenko declared that his country was
126. 8:47“preparing for war” as he announced  a new rotational mobilization policy.
127. 8:51Combat readiness inspections were also  announced, which came on the back of the
128. 8:55launch of conscription to compulsory military  service for all men aged between 18 and 27.
129. 9:01Fast-forward to September, and Lukashenko was  saying that it’s time to shake up the whole
130. 9:05Belarusian army “up to mobilization.” And  on October 16, United24 Media reported that
131. 9:11Lukashenko had ordered the creation of people’s  militia units in every Belarusian village council.
132. 9:18As all of this has been happening,  military infrastructure has also
133. 9:20been built up on Belarus’s borders with  the NATO nations of Poland and Lithuania.
134. 9:25Key to this build-up is a military  communications network that is being
135. 9:28created from the Belarusian border with Russia  all the way through its borders with NATO.
136. 9:33It’s clear from this that Belarus is preparing  for some sort of joint operation with Russia.
137. 9:37Matvei Kupreichyk, who is a former senior  lieutenant in the Belarusian police force,
138. 9:42also tells Centrum Europy that Russia is  paying for railway upgrades in Belarus.
139. 9:47“The rails are being replaced with  stronger ones that can handle higher loads,
140. 9:50such as larger numbers of Iskander  missile launchers,” Kupreichyk claims.
141. 9:55All of this is being done for Russia’s  needs, the former police lieutenant claims.
142. 9:59Returning to the 48-page  report we mentioned earlier,
143. 10:02it highlights 120 Belarusian companies  that are either currently producing or
144. 10:06are expected to produce supplies and  equipment for the Russian armed forces.
145. 10:11The factories that are already producing are  expected to hit maximum production capacity
146. 10:16by March 2027, with the rest to follow at  some point during the middle of next year.
147. 10:21Presumably, these are the same 120 companies that
148. 10:24Mezha reported were supporting Russian  military aggression back in February.
149. 10:28We have clear examples of Russian equipment  and infrastructure build-ups near NATO borders,
150. 10:32along with the militarization of a nation that  is well-known to be led by a puppet of Putin.
151. 10:37Lukashenko has once again barked on command,  and that should be very concerning for NATO.
152. 10:43Then there’s Kaliningrad.
153. 10:44We mentioned the bases being built up in  that exclave a few minutes ago. However,
154. 10:48when it comes to Russia’s border activities,
155. 10:50the far more worrying development is the  creation of a powerful radar that Russia
156. 10:54would likely look to use in any conflict that  involves the Baltic or Central European regions.
157. 10:59UA.News reported on this radar on October  19, stating that it is being developed near
158. 11:04the settlement of Gvardeysk and, when completed,  it will have a range of up to 3,000 kilometers.
159. 11:10That range will be vital for Russia, as it will  allow for the detection of aircraft and missiles
160. 11:15up to that distance. If anything is fired  toward Kaliningrad from Europe or the U.S.,
161. 11:19this one radar is going to be  Russia’s early warning system,
162. 11:23allowing for a rapid response in its exclave.
163. 11:26Putin believes that Kaliningrad  needs a radar like this.
164. 11:29After all, he has had to listen to several  NATO figures claim that Kaliningrad would
165. 11:33be the first casualty of a war between  Russia and NATO. The most recent of those
166. 11:38threats came from Latvia’s former  Defense Minister Artis Pabriks.
167. 11:42“If Russia attacks NATO, Kaliningrad will be
168. 11:44wiped out and Suwałki Corridor will  cease to exist,” Pabriks declared.
169. 11:49So, Putin wants to ensure the  exclave is as protected as possible.
170. 11:53This particular radar installation is believed  to be designed to monitor the likes of France,
171. 11:57Germany, and the U.K., UA.News reports.
172. 12:00This over-the-horizon radar is worrying enough,
173. 12:03especially when it comes to NATO plans to attack  Kaliningrad in the event of a war with Russia.
174. 12:08Even more concerning is that the facility  upon which UA.News reports is just one of
175. 12:1320 similar installations in Kaliningrad. Not all  have the same kind of radar, of course. But with
176. 12:18these facilities, Russia has an early warning  system that covers almost all of European NATO.
177. 12:24Russia’s intention is for data from these  radars to be fed to its air defense systems,
178. 12:29such as the S-400s it has  stationed in its exclave.
179. 12:33If all goes according to Putin’s plan,
180. 12:35an initial NATO salvo would be shot out  of the sky, clearing the way for Russia
181. 12:39to unleash a barrage of Iskander missiles  against the nations that border Kaliningrad.
182. 12:44That’s an outcome that retired British Royal Navy  Commodore Steve Jermy says is far from impossible.
183. 12:50He claims that Russia would destroy any  formation of troops sent to attack Kaliningrad,
184. 12:54and it would follow up with Iskander missiles  that could kill tens of thousands of people.
185. 12:58Many in NATO appear to disagree.
186. 13:01But Jermy argues a lack of secrecy  could be NATO’s downfall. And with
187. 13:05dozens of nuclear-capable Iskander  missiles already in Kaliningrad,
188. 13:09Jermy argues the situation would look  grimmer for NATO than many anticipate.
189. 13:14Russia’s Kaliningrad radars also serve to offer
190. 13:16their eyes over the Baltic  states and the Baltic Sea.
191. 13:19And speaking of the Baltic states,
192. 13:21Russia has been doing something inside  their borders, as well as along them.
193. 13:25Back in February, Gwara Media reported  that Russian special services had started
194. 13:30buying real estate in at least 10 European  countries. These Trojan Horse properties all
195. 13:35just happen to be located near military  bases and other strategic locations,
196. 13:40suggesting they will be used  for spying and sabotage.
197. 13:43On October 20, The Telegraph also  reported on these properties,
198. 13:46adding that many are being  bought in the Baltic region.
199. 13:49An entire network has also been created  in Sweden, and it is linked to Tatiana
200. 13:53Sazinova, who is the wife of a Russian  oligarch who has close links to Putin.
201. 13:58Over and over again, we see examples  of Russia gearing up for something big.
202. 14:02Everything is about to change.  But how soon, and is NATO ready?
203. 14:07According to the Lansing Institute,
204. 14:09Russia’s border build-up isn’t indicative  of an immediate threat to NATO’s borders,
205. 14:13at least in terms of a large invasion. Rather,  what we’re seeing is the material foundation of
206. 14:18such an invasion being put into place so it’ll  be ready if and when Putin gives the order.
207. 14:24It will take time for Russia  to be fully ready to invade.
208. 14:27Ukraine has made sure of that, as its destruction  of so many of Russia’s soldiers means that the
209. 14:31Kremlin is dealing with a situation where its  recruitment isn’t meeting Russia’s losses.
210. 14:36In August, The Guardian reported  that Russia is at least 6,000
211. 14:39soldiers short in volunteer recruitment  per month. And in an October 15 report,
212. 14:44United24 Media said that Russia has lost  more than 350,000 soldiers in 2026 alone,
213. 14:50and its monthly losses have  accelerated as the year progressed.
214. 14:54Russia will need to rebuild before it invades.
215. 14:57That means its border build-up is  less about the immediate future,
216. 15:00and more about preparing for the long-term.
217. 15:03Putin and his cronies are operating on the  assumption that Russia will defeat Ukraine.
218. 15:08Assuming that happens, which is an assumption  so massive you could see it from space,
219. 15:12it’s then that we’d see recruitment and  equipment production go into overdrive.
220. 15:16As for whether NATO is ready for what may be  coming, the raw numbers suggest that it is.
221. 15:21In a comparison between NATO and Russia, Statista  points out that NATO, as a collective force,
222. 15:27has close to triple the active military  personnel, about five times more aircraft,
223. 15:31a much larger navy, and over a million  more armored fighting vehicles than Russia.
224. 15:36But those numbers come with caveats.
225. 15:38If Russia attacked a NATO nation,
226. 15:40would the triggering of Article  5 bring that full power to bear?
227. 15:44And what about the U.S.? The Trump administration
228. 15:46seems to be on friendlier terms with  Putin now than it has been for months,
229. 15:49and there are questions about whether the U.S.  would join a fight against Russia in Europe.
230. 15:54Beyond the raw numbers, the head of  United States European Command and
231. 15:57the Supreme Allied Commander Europe, General  Alexus Grynkewich, presented what he claims
232. 16:03is NATO’s “theory of victory” during the  Warsaw Security Forum earlier in October.
233. 16:08We won’t break down the full theory here,
234. 16:10but the gist is that NATO will  first block a Russian advance,
235. 16:13then blunt the strength of the attack, followed  by breaking Russia if it doesn’t back down.
236. 16:18Strong words from one of NATO’s leading figures.
237. 16:22He claims that NATO has learned directly  from the war in Ukraine, and this “theory of
238. 16:26victory” would be enough to stop Russia if Putin  attempts a limited invasion of NATO territory.
239. 16:32However, the scale of Russia’s border  build-up suggests that something
240. 16:35stronger than a limited invasion  may be coming. We have Belarus,
241. 16:39Kaliningrad, and a whole lot of border bases,  all seemingly gearing up for something massive.
242. 16:43To ensure NATO readiness, NATO nations  need to take a huge step up in what NATO’s
243. 16:48Supreme Allied Commander Transformation  Pierre Vandier calls “industrial depth.”
244. 16:53That’s according to an October  19 report by Canada’s CBC,
245. 16:57which says Vandier’s main concern is that  NATO will fall behind Russia in critical
246. 17:01areas like drone development if it doesn’t  start to build its industrial depth right now.
247. 17:06“Being late is really my nightmare,”  Vandier says, before adding,
248. 17:10“When I see people chatting, delaying some  important decisions, not committing the money,
249. 17:14using some … old-fashioned process,  then it keeps me [up] at night.”
250. 17:18This is an important point.
251. 17:20So much of what Russia is doing on NATO’s  borders right now is conventional. Tanks,
252. 17:25armored vehicles, manpower, radars, and missiles  are all things that NATO understands intimately.
253. 17:32But we can’t forget that Russia has  nearly five years of experience with
254. 17:36drones and similar technologies due to  its invasion of Ukraine. Even though
255. 17:40Ukraine is coming out on top in the drone  battle, Russia is still far ahead of NATO,
256. 17:44at least when it comes to the  sheer scale of its drone threat.
257. 17:47What we see happening on NATO’s  borders is worrying enough.
258. 17:50But if these emerging threats are backed  by thousands, if not millions, of drones,
259. 17:55then serious questions have to be  asked about whether NATO is ready.
260. 17:59Maybe it isn’t.
261. 18:00But if that’s the case, you wouldn’t know it based  on Grynkewich’s comments in Warsaw. We touched on
262. 18:06those comments and the “theory of victory”  that the NATO general revealed a moment ago.
263. 18:10There’s a lot more to say about this plan.
264. 18:12And you can find out precisely what block,  blunt, and break mean if you watch our video.
265. 18:17But before you go, this is The Military Show,  and we’re real people producing researched and
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