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We're Not Having Enough Kids - It's A Disaster - Stephen J. Shaw — Transcript

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0:00So I looked up some data and I thought,
0:02"Oh, this is going to be interesting."
0:04What I didn't expect to find was a
0:06pattern across 39 nations that explains
0:10everything. And I mean everything. There
0:13is a singular reason for falling birth
0:15rates.
0:16>> Japan seems to be at kind of the
0:18forefront of this as does South Korea.
0:21On average, every day, two schools close
0:24in Japan and that's been going on for 15
0:26years. stroller sales for pets are now
0:29outstripping strollers for kids. That's
0:32in South Korea and I believe it's true
0:33in Japan, too. There are people out
0:35there trying to block messages and one
0:37of the messages they're trying to block
0:39is educating women about fertility. A
0:42woman turning 28 in the UK has a 50/50%
0:46chance of ever becoming a mother at 28.
0:49There are some people who literally want
0:51humanity to die. This is a civilization
0:54ending. In that case, what do we do?
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1:18this episode. Stephen Shaw, welcome back
1:20to Trigonometry. Great to have you on.
1:22>> Thanks for the invite.
1:23>> Yeah. Well, you you obviously we talked
1:25with you, I think it was last year about
1:27your documentary Birth Gap, talking
1:29about uh the fertility crisis across the
1:31world now, not just the Western world,
1:33but across the Western world, which is
1:34basically the fact we're not having
1:36enough children to replace the
1:38population as we have now. We talked
1:40about many of the challenges that poses.
1:43I think the stat that really um stood
1:47out for a lot of people from that
1:49interview is in Japan where you live,
1:51more adult nappies are sold than baby
1:54nappies. So there's more nappies for
1:56people who are in the final stages of
1:57life than for for babies. Um and this is
2:01a thing that is increasingly being
2:02replicated around the world. And you now
2:04have some new data and you've done a lot
2:06more research into this. So talk about
2:09talk to us about where the world is in
2:11respect to all of that. just remind
2:12people and then what have you discovered
2:14about why it is that way?
2:16>> I'll add just one thing about nappies. I
2:19believe it's not the case for strollers
2:21as well. I think uh stroller sales for
2:23pets are now outstripping strollers for
2:27kids.
2:29That's in South Korea and I believe it's
2:30true in Japan too. So things aren't
2:32getting better anywhere and you're
2:33right. You know what's happening in the
2:35Far East, I'm still based in in Tokyo,
2:37uh is absolutely playing out. So it was
2:39two years ago I was here and at that
2:41time I would say fertility came into the
2:44mainstream press once or twice a year. I
2:47mean it just wasn't a thing. US too. Um
2:50it's now almost daily. So the transition
2:53of awareness is the one big change I
2:56notice. Uh and that's a good thing
2:58because I one of the reasons for making
2:59the documentary was to make people aware
3:02of what's actually happening. But you're
3:04right. Over the past uh two years um I
3:07have been doing more research because I
3:09still wasn't convinced that we really
3:11understand this crisis.
3:13um my first paper
3:16uh now peer-reviewed. I can say that um
3:20I tend to make documentaries first and
3:22then do the peer review after which is
3:24probably the wrong way around to some
3:25people. But I think this is so important
3:27that people need to be aware of certain
3:29things and uh the peer-reviewed research
3:31really shows that mothers in Japan and
3:34the UK are having around the same number
3:37of children as 1970 mothers.
3:40>> Mhm.
3:40>> Let's just park the category of women.
3:42Mhm.
3:42>> Cuz there's no such thing as an average
3:44>> debatable category nowadays.
3:46>> To me, it's like um
3:49>> a Schroinger's cat. People are not going
3:50to like me for this. The idea of a cat
3:52that's half alive and half dead. So,
3:55park that analogy, but the idea of an
3:57average person, mother or father, is
3:59someone with a child and childless at
4:01the same time. We we measure these, you
4:04know, average people.
4:05>> Uh demographers do it. And it's held a
4:08lot of people back, I think, in fully
4:09understanding exactly what's happening.
4:12So, original research separated people
4:15who are having children. We've got so
4:17much data on women. I It's terrible
4:19really. I'm always talking about women
4:20and mothers. And I really want to talk
4:21about men more and I hope to do that
4:23here. But looking at the data for women,
4:26if you become a mother, 1970s Japan,
4:292025 Japan, you're going on to have
4:31around the same number of children. UK
4:33too. In US mothers are actually having
4:35more from 2.4 to 2.6. So this is not to
4:38do about parenthood. This is to do with
4:41the transition into parenthood. But I
4:44felt well from my first research that's
4:47as far as you could go that it was
4:50obvious parenthood was being delayed. So
4:52I had this category delayed parenthood.
4:55People doing other things first and
4:57running out of time.
4:59What I didn't expect to find
5:03uh one layer deeper
5:06was a pattern across 39 nations that
5:09explains everything and I mean
5:11everything. So I'm now on camera on
5:13trigonometry for the first time saying
5:16uh there is a singular reason for
5:19falling birth rates. And uh I'll either
5:23be laughed at for that or people might
5:25look back and think oh that's
5:26interesting. I hope it's the latter. Um,
5:29so if I can take you through for a
5:31moment, last June I was in Kyoto, Japan
5:35and I just finished all the the data
5:38analysis for the first paper.
5:40>> Mhm.
5:41>> Literally just finished it. And I went
5:44out for an evening and a friend that was
5:46due to meet had was double booked for a
5:48birthday party. So I had an evening to
5:49myself and I do what I like to do on
5:51Friday nights. Let's do some more data
5:53analysis.
5:55And I decided to do only one thing which
5:57was okay let's just prep the data for
5:59the next paper which is going to be
6:00about the probability of being a parent
6:03by age that was always in my mind
6:06and I threw this into a visualized
6:10dashboard data tool
6:14and the age of parenthood became a curve
6:16I'll not go into too much now because
6:17you may have more questions first but if
6:19I can just share with you that the
6:21latest research is what I call vitality
6:23and it shows that the age of parenthood
6:27can predict birth rates with very high
6:29accuracy. But it's not your age, it's
6:32everybody else's age.
6:35Well, it's other people are the problem.
6:36You see, it doesn't matter.
6:38>> Oh, that's helpful.
6:40>> It doesn't matter if we decide to have a
6:43child younger in the overall average of
6:46things, someone having a child will
6:49replace someone else not having a child.
6:51All balances out.
6:53What I mean is it's a societal thing.
6:56These curves center around an age where
6:59everybody is tending to have children
7:02and trying to move that forwards or
7:04backwards just because a group of people
7:06decide well we're going to have have
7:07kids earlier. Great if they do for them
7:10but the whole challenge we have now is
7:12to do with the age of becoming a parent
7:13and that's a big problem. Well, so just
7:15for just to understand clearly, what
7:18you're saying is if you look at
7:19societies and you measure the average
7:22age at which people become parents, that
7:25will tell you what the fertility rate of
7:27that society is going to be.
7:28>> You can you can derive it in two or
7:30three rather simple steps.
7:31>> Okay. But um I'm a little bit confused
7:34about you say that why that's a si
7:37singular explanation because um there
7:40will be causes of that average age
7:43increasing over time a number of them I
7:46imagine not just a singular one right uh
7:48so some of them will be economic some
7:50will be cultural social I imagine right
7:53um
7:54>> so I try and think of analogies and some
7:57of them are good and some are not so
7:58let's see
8:00>> imagine you're um a fish, let's say a
8:04salmon in a river, a fast flowing river.
8:07And let's say one day some bears come
8:08along. Not good. So all the fish move
8:12downstream.
8:14They find a new home there.
8:15>> And the fishermen come along and think,
8:17"What's happened to all the fish?"
8:18>> And then they go and they find the fish.
8:20But it's not as nice where they are now.
8:21We want to move back upstream.
8:23>> Oh, we know the problem now was caused
8:25by bears. So let's just get rid of the
8:27bears. That was the trigger. the bears
8:29with the trigger
8:30>> to moving the fish downstream,
8:31>> right?
8:32>> Getting the fish back upstream is a
8:33whole different challenge. So,
8:35>> you're right.
8:37What we see is major social turbulences,
8:44crises, recessions,
8:47uh causing delayed parenthood. If you
8:49have not had your first child,
8:51>> if you've already had your first child,
8:53there's almost no effect. So, it delays
8:55parenthood. So we're now moving kind of
8:57downstream
8:58of when people would have had children
9:00before. So the triggers need to be
9:02separated from, you know, resolving the
9:06triggers now
9:07>> would be like taking the bears away when
9:09they're no longer the problem.
9:10>> Well, that's a very specifically framed
9:12metaphor. Forgive me for interrogating
9:13it as much as I am, but um it implies
9:18that the the way this works is you can't
9:21move back. Some people might say, I'm
9:23just thinking it's through with you
9:24Stephen, not trying to argue with you at
9:26all, that if you remove the conditions
9:30that cause people to delay parenthood.
9:32Well, the reason I'm asking is this, for
9:34example, right, my wife and I had our
9:36first son at 39. I know for a fact we
9:40probably would have had him earlier if
9:42our material conditions had been
9:44different. if we'd bought our flat
9:47earlier, if I was making more money
9:49earlier, if um etc. Do you see what I'm
9:53saying? Right? So, if I go back to that
9:56time when I was 35 and I had the income
9:59that I had now or the physical uh you
10:03know security of owning a property or
10:05whatever it might be, we may well have
10:07had a child earlier. So, if you remove
10:09that economic constraint from Constantin
10:12at age 35, we may well have had kids
10:14then. Do you see what I'm saying?
10:16>> Sure. Um, and to go back to that evening
10:18in Kyoto once I called up this chart, I
10:20was up to 3 in the morning in disbelief
10:24>> for the reason that this curve which
10:26I'll explain um
10:29is symmetrical without bumps. So what I
10:31mean if you look at the age of
10:33parenthood, motherhood and fathers, we
10:35now have some father data.
10:38My full expectation up to that evening
10:41was you'd see a delay in parenthood.
10:43some people having children young of
10:45course and then maybe mid20s you would
10:47kind of have a slope going up and then
10:50maybe around 30 there might be another
10:52uptick and then there'd be another
10:54uptick some yeah it would start to go
10:55down but there'd be another little
10:56uptick mid-30s and then IVF you would
10:59definitely see all the progress in terms
11:01of technologies
11:03and you'd also say well if you go back
11:05to 1970 it would be different but it
11:07would be smoother then because maybe
11:10maybe there was closer to an average
11:11parent back Then most people were
11:13marrying at the same time, having kids
11:15at the same time. So I didn't even doubt
11:18myself that this would be a curve that
11:19starts smooth and shows all this
11:21bumpiness as people through autonomy
11:24decide whether to have a child at 35 or
11:2639.
11:28Um, but what I saw was a smooth curve in
11:321,539 data sets.
11:35Very slight perturbations, very slight
11:37for periods of time. And I stared at
11:40that screen. And I I wrote an email to
11:41myself that night and I don't think I've
11:43ever done that before. I ever will cuz I
11:45wanted to remember the moment. Uh so
11:47this is a symmetrical curve centered
11:49around the age. And today let's say it's
11:51around 30. Starts around 20 goes up
11:53almost perfectly. A perfect bell curve.
11:55What we call the Gaussian curve with a
11:57formula. There's a formula for it. Um
12:01the email to myself said we're all the
12:04same.
12:05And what I meant was it's a toss of a
12:08coin for us all by age. Whether we want
12:11things or whether we have money, the
12:12money you may have had, Constantine,
12:14younger years, you may have spent to,
12:15you know, take a few more vacations or
12:18do other things and then then wait.
12:21Um,
12:23I thought the data was wrong. To me,
12:25this was impossible. I went back to the
12:27source of data, confirmed that it's not
12:29national databases, verified it against
12:31other sources, went to the CDC in the
12:33US. US is interesting. By the way, um
12:36the US, I'll just state now, US is
12:39multiple curves. Asian-Americans perfect
12:41curve.
12:42African-Americans start starting
12:44younger. And if people were to say in
12:47the US, why are so few Asian-Americans
12:50and African-Americans, uh black
12:51Americans, you know, having kids? Well,
12:54you can see in the data, Asian-Americans
12:56are having kids 5 to 10 years later than
13:00than African-Americans. So
13:03um this curve
13:06to try to explain I call it the vitality
13:08curve.
13:10The desire to have children I think is
13:12bumpy.
13:14I think there are people at those ages
13:16when they get through college two years
13:17of career when they get to 30 when they
13:19get to 35 I think there is bumpiness
13:23>> in the desired of kids around certain
13:25ages but there's a greater force that
13:28overrides everything. So to put it in
13:30context
13:33when you model this
13:35again 39 economies
13:38uh have to say economies because it
13:40includes Taiwan just it's it's a wide
13:41diverse set of countries in East Asia,
13:43North America uh almost all of Europe.
13:48When you put all this together into a
13:51database, all of this data, you get the
13:53same smooth curve and you get
13:56predictability that
13:58around 94%
14:00of birth rates are related to that
14:03central age, that fatality curve. Only
14:066% relates to taxes, family policy, the
14:08economy, culture, anything else. There's
14:11some exceptions to 6%. You can tweak it
14:14a little bit up and a little bit down.
14:16But to me, the takeaway for policy
14:17makers is that
14:20if you ignore the average age of
14:22parenthood
14:24and only focus on
14:26helping everybody have children, the
14:29chances of success are small. And I'll
14:32say one more thing, and this is an irony
14:34to me. The more you do to help people
14:38have IVF or delay parenthood in any way,
14:42the lower the curve goes. Overall IVF of
14:45course great for many people of course
14:47but the more you kind of encourage later
14:49parenthood this this curve started like
14:52this
14:53and anchored at a young age because
14:56people are still having kids and
14:58teenagers so it's anchored and as it
15:00stretches you take the life out of a
15:02society. Can I give you an analogy?
15:06Um maybe better than the fish one.
15:09Imagine
15:11times gone by uh maybe my parents
15:14generation where in a town people would
15:17go to a dance hall and that was the only
15:18place
15:20to meet people realistically.
15:22>> Mhm.
15:23>> And the dance halls open from 8 until
15:2511:00 and everyone's there at 8:00
15:27because you don't want to miss out. And
15:28the first hour or so is gossip and who's
15:30brought their cousin from another town
15:32and has there been a breakup and the
15:35conversations start and then by the
15:36middle of the night you know the dance
15:38floor everything's flowing. there's lots
15:39of energy and towards the end people
15:41start drifting home and it's less likely
15:43that any you know new connections will
15:45be made but it's condensed everything's
15:48everyone's on the same page at that same
15:50moment in time so imagine the uh the
15:52dance hall owner thinks well this is
15:54amazing I'm going to extend the hours
15:56I'm going to open at 7:00 I'm going to
15:57stay open till midnight but there's
15:59still only the same number of people to
16:01come
16:02>> there's not an extra body of people
16:03you're pulling in so what happens some
16:05people come at 7:00 but some of them get
16:08bored and go home at 10. Some people
16:09have dinner first and come later.
16:12There's never that one central moment.
16:14You've stretched out the energy and you
16:17don't get that one moment. And I imagine
16:20in that situation, let's say you're
16:21dancing with someone and you um you
16:23think, "Okay, this is interesting." And
16:25then some new people arrive, you know,
16:26at 5 to 10 and your head turns and
16:28thinks, "Wait a minute, there's
16:30something new. I need to consider that."
16:32Which point your partner notices you
16:34looking elsewhere and he or she's gone
16:36somewhere else. When you have a
16:38concentrated time span, when everyone's
16:40on the same page, it is easier in
16:44technical terms, um there's less
16:47entropy, less disorder when people are
16:50pair bonding, matching at a younger age.
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18:08Stephen, you know, when I was watching
18:10the doc and I was reading your data, it
18:12reminded me of a book that I read a few
18:14months ago called Adventures in the
18:15Screenwriting Trade by William Goldman.
18:18And it's about the movie industry. And
18:20he's he wrote Butch Cassidy and the
18:21Sundance Kid. And he said in 1982,
18:27the blockbusters were aimed at 16 to 24
18:31year olds. So all the blockbusters in
18:33the late 70s early 80s were aimed at 16
18:35to 24 year olds because he said at the
18:38age of 24 people were getting married
18:40they were having kids they weren't going
18:43to the cinema. So all of the o those
18:46blockbusters would be aimed squarely at
18:48that target demographic. Now imagine a
18:51blockbuster being released nowadays. It
18:53would have been 16 to 24 year olds. If I
18:56were to sue a movie producer, I'd be
18:57like, well, 16 to 35, maybe 16 to 40.
19:01>> Well, that's why you've got a 60-y old
19:02Tom Cruz and Tom Gun Maverick, right? Or
19:05however old he is. Maybe not 60.
19:06>> Yeah. No, Tom Yeah. Tom Cruz is about
19:0860. Yeah. So, you've got all these
19:10people identifying with with an aged Tom
19:13Cruz. No offense, Tom.
19:15>> And in that analogy, I think what what
19:17happens is you've actually got more
19:19people because there's more people to
19:21watch those movies over a wider age
19:22span. The issue with pair bonding is
19:25there aren't any more aren't any extra
19:27people and we stretched out the hours.
19:29>> So be like stretching the hours of of uh
19:32blockbuster
19:33>> but the same number of people coming in
19:35and not just the energy might be taken
19:37out. I'm sure the analogy fully holds
19:39but you know this is my biggest worry
19:41now. Uh this is what keeps me awake at
19:43night
19:44>> uh including last night. Um,
19:49time moves forwards
19:51just like a river. It's easy to delay
19:54parenthood. You know, we all, okay, not
19:55this year. Yeah, I got next year. That's
19:58fine.
20:00But if we are to go back, if we are if
20:02we are, it kind of means creating this
20:05turbulence where you're trying to you're
20:09almost trying to tell all the over 30
20:10year olds, look, you go and do your own
20:12thing, date with each other, figure it
20:13out. while you're trying to have some
20:16and I I never use the word
20:18encouragement. It's up to people to have
20:19kids if they want them. And I I'll say
20:21it here now. Um no one should force
20:24anyone to even contemplate children. But
20:26there are many young people who do want
20:28family and given the risk of unplanned
20:29childlessness.
20:31um you know but having those two things
20:34at the same time I've seen it done once
20:36in Hungary
20:38in a limited way where you have had
20:41policies that have created this bubble
20:44in 25 year olds and and younger having
20:46children in Hungary and that's probably
20:49the most interesting thing happening in
20:50demography right now that okay there's
20:52an example
20:53>> um Hungary's overall birth rates uh have
20:56gone up and have not settled back down
20:57again but that's not the most important
20:59thing to me it's oh there's a bubble
21:01that could be interesting for the future
21:02of younger people starting a family. And
21:06what you do so beautifully in the
21:08documentary is you explore the the real
21:11impacts of childlessness on countries.
21:15And we'll talk about South America
21:17because with my background I actually
21:18found that quite shocking. We'll talk
21:20about that later on in the interview.
21:22But the Japanese lady who you met and
21:25you took her back to the town that she
21:26grew up in and in the early '7s it had
21:29been this vibrant town where there were
21:32schools and kids playgrounds and then
21:34you went back in I think in 2021 2022
21:39whenever it was. I mean talk about that.
21:41It was horrific.
21:44And it was actually a suburb of Tokyo.
21:46You know it's it's um you know it's 40
21:49minutes on the subway line. Uh, so it's
21:51technically Tokyo City.
21:53>> Mhm.
21:54>> Which people would think is this 30
21:55million, you know, booming place with
21:58too many people. So this is my Japanese
22:01language teacher and she told me for a
22:03long time the suburb where she was
22:05brought up and I knew that she'd left
22:07that suburb when she was 12 years old.
22:10Her family moved elsewhere. So I looked
22:11up some data and I thought, "Oh, this is
22:14going to be interesting. I think this
22:15suburb has completely changed just
22:17looking at the residents ages." So, I
22:19persuaded her. I waited till I had a
22:21film crew in town and persuaded her
22:23kindly, Emmy sensei, to to go with me.
22:26And I kind of knew what she was in for,
22:28but she didn't. So, she walks into this
22:31uh playground.
22:33And she's smiling, you know, there's
22:34there's where I used to play, and I used
22:36to climb here. And she's just filled
22:38with joy. You can see it. And then she
22:41comes to an alleyway that used to be
22:43filled with shops.
22:45And they're all closed. every single one
22:47shuttered and she just says shock
22:51and you just see what's happened here
22:53because you can't see inside apartments
22:57who's there. Old lonely people mostly.
22:59Well, I know it's all lonely people
23:01because the one shop that was open, one
23:02store is a pharmacy
23:05and the pharmacists are like 80 years
23:07old, husband and wife.
23:09And they confirm that everyone, well, as
23:12they put it, everyone's old and it's
23:15mostly
23:17single women living alone because men
23:20die younger.
23:22And the grocery store,
23:26mother and son run it. the mother would
23:28be on the till and she liked doing that
23:31because many of the elderly people who
23:33come by she's the only person they got
23:35to talk to once a week and they delay
23:38and delay paying their bills and chit
23:39chat and chit and then one day they
23:40don't come back the scene you're talking
23:42about Francis um
23:46yeah you know it's it's
23:50it was most chilling moment in the
23:51entire documentary and there were
23:52several but we um we found some locals
23:55outside this pharmacy and they were
23:57talking amongst themselves was my
23:58assistant M. I got to talk to them and
24:01they're saying, "No, no, don't don't say
24:02this. Don't say this. Don't mention.
24:04Don't." But one person
24:06told us that the week before an elderly
24:09woman in her 90s without children had
24:11thrown herself off the roof
24:13from loneliness.
24:16And then we were told that's not
24:17uncommon.
24:19Right. Right there.
24:22[Music]
24:26Did she fall off?
24:28because she was lonely.
24:33>> I don't think we know what loneliness is
24:35like in her younger years.
24:38What is loneliness? Not being connected
24:40with the world. We can't sit there on
24:43that sofa and observe someone sitting
24:45there depressed
24:48day after day after day.
24:52Um, yeah. And you know, I talk a
24:55probably my first time talking about
24:57this scene in in in any detail.
25:01I don't know how we do anything about
25:02that. Um,
25:05unless people start
25:09caring for older people in a way I don't
25:11think we do anymore. And these bills are
25:14being passed around the world world
25:15about assisted suicide. I I think
25:17they're just terrible. I I I I maybe
25:20well intended. Sure, I can empathize
25:22with some unfortunate people um where
25:26that would be a preferred choice.
25:29I remember flying back to Tokyo and
25:32sitting beside two young Japanese
25:34students, girls in their early 20s, and
25:38um if you end up sitting beside me in a
25:40plane, we're going to be talking about
25:40birth rates, you know, that's for sure.
25:43But uh the the young woman sitting
25:44beside me was on her way back home after
25:46studying I think in the UK and explained
25:49she was on her way back to her house
25:51excited to see her parents and I said oh
25:53you know your brother sister. Yeah. And
25:54then she mentioned her grandparents
25:58and she said oh yeah my grandparents
25:59still live with us. Oh that's good
26:00you've got community. And then she kind
26:02of welled up in tears and she said,
26:07"Why are they still here
26:11about their own grand her own
26:12grandparents?"
26:16And
26:19obviously she was doing chores.
26:20Obviously she was studying. Obviously
26:21she was imagining all the things she
26:23would have to do to take care of her
26:24grandparents.
26:26But to verbalize those words
26:30to me in some way was stuck with me.
26:35Those words may not often be spoken, but
26:36they might be thought
26:39or they might even be hinted at to a
26:41point where elderly people in nations
26:44where assisted suicide is possible start
26:46feeling guilty. Oh, I'm, you know, I'm a
26:48burden. Why am I here? I can sense it.
26:52And then communities build in this
26:54expectation. Well, you shouldn't be a
26:56burden. And we all think when we get to
26:58that age that that's the done thing.
27:00Now, what does that do to any
27:01civilization, any society where we, you
27:05know, that that becomes the end. So,
27:08this whole area of
27:12I call these communities and it's not
27:14just Japan. I went to one in Germany as
27:16well that they're everywhere.
27:18>> Um, you don't see them in the center of
27:20the city. You know, you go out of cities
27:23in many countries and you'll find them.
27:24I call them yester lands, like lands
27:27built for yesterday.
27:29And they're too big now. There's too
27:31many vacant houses. Sure, not in the
27:33trendy places. You know, that's where
27:34the house prices go up, but not in the
27:36rural areas or even these suburbs.
27:39>> Yeah, I worry about that a lot. And I
27:42mean, like I said, the dock is brilliant
27:44and incredibly powerful. And that was
27:48one of the moments that really hit home
27:49with me. The other one that hit home
27:52with me particularly was the amount of
27:55schools that were closed.
27:58As somebody who used to teach and you
28:00being surrounded by kids and the energy
28:02that kids bring and the liveless
28:05and just seeing you in a deserted
28:08playground and then you and then you
28:11said that school closed in 2006 and you
28:14showed the photograph of a boy being
28:17taught on it on his own. It m it made me
28:20feel an almost visceral pain.
28:24Yeah. Yeah. Um
28:28so, you know, we talk a lot about Japan.
28:30Um it's the bleeding age, but the rest
28:33of us are not so far behind. Already in
28:35the UK, schools are closing in some
28:36areas. It's becoming more and more on
28:38the radar. But yeah, I mean that one
28:39photo to me, you're right, the the last
28:42student in this elementary school. And
28:45um you know, so Japan something
28:49On average, every day, two schools close
28:53in Japan. And that's been going on for
28:5415 years. There's five six thousand now.
28:57Um, schools aren't just schools. They're
29:00hubs of the community. Like you say, the
29:01the the energy is not just within the
29:03classroom. It's all around the
29:04classroom.
29:06And you take a school away from a
29:08community. And I've seen that happen. So
29:10let's say you have two towns maybe 5 10
29:12miles apart 5 10 km
29:15whatever
29:17and there's only enough children for one
29:19school. So a decision's made
29:21okay we're going to keep this school we
29:24can just bust these kids solution. No
29:27what happens slowly the families start
29:30to buy houses in this town or move
29:33there. Suddenly fewer people want to
29:35live here and you end up with elderly
29:37people left here and maybe a few kids
29:39still getting that school bus.
29:40Meanwhile, this town's still got a bank
29:42and a you know somewhere to repair your
29:44car and buy groceries. This one ends up
29:47with nothing.
29:48>> I went to such a town uh pretty central
29:51Japan last year.
29:54Uh there's one cafe. So one cafe maybe a
29:59town that would have had two 300 people.
30:00Not big but one cafe. The cafe opens
30:03once per month.
30:08They have a day to all go to the cafe.
30:12So these fading societies um you know
30:16it's it's it's it's terrible. And
30:21we talk about fading societies and
30:23obviously Japan because Japan seems to
30:26be at the kind of the forefront of this
30:28as does South Korea. The part of the doc
30:31that I found shocking as someone with a
30:32Latin American background is you were
30:35talking about South America. You were
30:37talking about Brazil. I think what was
30:39this that is it 1.64 replacement in
30:42Brazil. I mean that
30:44>> yeah I I found that mindboggling. This
30:46is a Catholic country where fertility is
30:50celebrated and you know when I I spent a
30:52lot of time and not in Brazil but in
30:54Venezuela it seemed to me that I I was
30:57surrounded by children and you know
31:00young people and it was a vibrant
31:02energetic society. Yeah, I think that
31:04shocks most people. I actually spent
31:06three weeks filming in six countries
31:07just because I had to see it because I
31:09knew people wouldn't believe it. And um
31:14yet if you go back to Italy 40 50 years
31:16ago, it would have been the same. No one
31:17would have believed the Italians would
31:19stop having big families and birth rates
31:21would crash.
31:22>> Now it's happening in Latin America and
31:23it's about to happen. It's already well
31:25underway in India, particularly southern
31:26India. It just takes us time to notice.
31:29You don't really notice that people
31:30aren't having kids. What changes?
31:31Nothing for a tent. A few schools
31:33closed, but not a big deal in the
31:35initial phases. It takes time for us to
31:37notice which is part of the problem. But
31:39yeah, Latin America I Latin America has
31:42a bigger problem than the West. Much
31:45bigger problem because the West and the
31:49Far East
31:51got wealthy before they got old.
31:55>> Japan's got reserves, huge national
31:57debt, but it's got reserves for a while.
32:01And perhaps they can use those reserves
32:02to help re-engineer society. Brazil
32:05doesn't have reserves. You know, still
32:08today in these countries, the pension
32:11systems are geared up for very large
32:14families compared to the number of
32:16retirees and the experts I interviewed
32:18there, including one, you know, well, a
32:21doctor who's now into looking
32:26gerontologies that care of older people.
32:28>> Mhm.
32:30and
32:33the fear in his eyes and voice talking
32:37about the future of elderly people in in
32:40Brazil. You know it's so what's
32:42happening in Latin America is what
32:44happened in Europe in the far east 20
32:46plus years ago just popping up in the
32:48numbers now the real impact will be 20
32:50plus years time and India is on the
32:52exact same path so this being a
32:54worldwide problem let's come back to the
32:57conversation we started with which is u
32:59I I guess implied in what implicit in
33:01what you're saying to some extent is the
33:03idea that the way we got here is not
33:06necessarily the way we'll come out of it
33:08in in the if if we even if we address
33:10some of the reasons that this has
33:12happened that won't take us to where we
33:14want to go.
33:15>> Right.
33:15>> Uh can you talk about why that is first
33:18of all?
33:18>> Yeah. So um we have this central
33:22tendency this fatality curve and it's
33:25there 1539
33:28data sets. So a year in a country put
33:30together massive
33:31>> which shows that as the average age of
33:34parenthood gets older people have fewer
33:37kids. That's basically what it's overall
33:39overall in a very predictable way.
33:40>> Okay.
33:41>> Um, so that's equivalent to tossing a
33:44coin, 1539 times and it coming up heads
33:48every time.
33:48>> Okay.
33:49>> Don't bet on the next one being a tail.
33:51>> Mhm.
33:51>> So you have to assume whatever the
33:53reason for this curve, I've got my
33:55theories. Um, I think it's linked to
33:56pair bonding, you know, matching up, but
33:59um, it's there. Now if you
34:04take let's say average age 30 is common
34:07in many nations right now. South Korea
34:0932 29 30 is common.
34:11>> Mhm.
34:12>> If you were to do things like put more
34:14money in young parents' pockets. If you
34:16do things that open more daycare, baby
34:20bonuses, all sorts of things that people
34:22think of gender, you know, men doing
34:24more at the home, more paternity leave.
34:26Uh let's say we solve all those things.
34:30>> Mhm. We're now living in a perfect
34:32world.
34:34That central age is anchored at that
34:36point. If you're to pull it forward, so
34:38you you're at that peak point now, 30.
34:41We got to move the peak earlier.
34:44But you're already 30. So you need to
34:46create some new bubble. A solution can
34:50only emerge.
34:52If a new bubble emerges that allows the
34:55people older than 30 to continue doing
34:58things as they would have for a time
34:59whilst something new, a new blossom if
35:02you like emerges.
35:04Now I don't know if people actually
35:05really will choose to have children
35:08younger. If they don't, we've got a real
35:10problem. This is a civilization endings,
35:12but it's that curve is so locked in with
35:15no examples of really how to move it
35:18other than hoping for a second bubble at
35:19a younger age.
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37:05Well, this is where sorry if I'm hopping
37:07on about the same thing, but this is
37:08where I come back to the economic
37:10argument because
37:12I I don't know if this is true and
37:14you're right. I think one of the things
37:16I definitely observe is that there are
37:18the average age of people getting
37:20together into a serious committed
37:21relationship seems to be increasing. Um,
37:24and uh, I I have a lot of friends in in
37:27America now who are in their 20s, who
37:29are all married and about to have kids
37:31because that's kind of part of their
37:33world view. But they are kind of the
37:35exception at least globally.
37:38But, you know, in the 70s you still had
37:42to some extent the one earner household
37:45where the man stereotypically speaking
37:47would go out to work. He could feed the
37:49entire family off his income. uh his
37:52wife could afford to be at home with the
37:54kids and now that is just much more
37:57difficult to attain for people. So I I
38:00would say there probably quite a lot of
38:01young people that would be happy to have
38:03kids if if that vision was available to
38:06them which it isn't. So wouldn't solving
38:08that problem, not that I know how to
38:10solve it, but if we solve that, wouldn't
38:12that turn this all around?
38:13>> I'm I'm not saying that these things
38:14aren't important. Um, but I am saying
38:17there's no evidence they'll affect birth
38:20rates.
38:20>> But we've never we've not seen that be
38:23be that economic reality be reversed.
38:25It's only getting worse. It's only
38:26getting harder for people to get on the
38:28housing ladder. It's only getting harder
38:30for people to survive on a one one
38:32income, right?
38:33>> Yes. But if you go back to, you know,
38:3670s, 80s, there was a time when things
38:38were getting better. And you can look at
38:39different recession. Oh, here it's
38:40getting And does it affect birth rates?
38:42No.
38:44um more people weren't having kids in
38:46the Reagan Thatcher boom years.
38:48>> So um Reagan Thatcher boom years. So
38:50we're talking now the 80s I think
38:52really. Um
38:54average family size in the UK was the
38:56same. In America it was 2.4. So it's
38:59actually gone up. Childlessness was
39:02lower in America at that time. Um but
39:04no, this is something really quite
39:06locked in. But if I could I understand I
39:10have this conversation. I think my my
39:12eldest son won't mind mentioning him. He
39:14got married recently
39:16>> and living in central London. He and his
39:18wife focused on careers.
39:21You know that they tell me similarly
39:23that people if they had more money but
39:25what seems to happen
39:28>> is that when people do have that bit
39:29more money they think great let's go
39:32enjoy it for a year or two and let's
39:33have kids later.
39:34>> So and there are many examples
39:37counterpoint. So you'll take uh
39:39somewhere like southeast of the UK where
39:42house prices are going through the roof
39:44right now and that's the problem. Well,
39:47you look at Scotland and Scotland's got
39:49one of the lowest birth rates in the
39:50entire UK.
39:52>> Scotland doesn't have this in the rear.
39:54So there's imbalances in logic. I've got
39:57um we all know um AAM's razor is that
40:00the saying where I think the most simple
40:04um you know re reason is probably the
40:06right one. I've got a maybe something to
40:09to pair with that and subsets here which
40:12is the the common grievance razor you
40:15might call it. M
40:17>> so I go around the world talking about
40:19this, lecturing about this and when I'm
40:22in Japan, people are certain if men did
40:25more in the home, birth rates would go
40:26up.
40:27>> Really? Oh, certain.
40:29>> I I give a talk to a technology
40:31conference there recently and this lady
40:32came up and thanked me and said, but you
40:34really you do know if men did more at
40:36home that would solve the problem here.
40:38And I come to the UK and it's house
40:39pricing and I have different places I
40:41go, they've got local grievances. So if
40:44so the razor really
40:45>> the trend is the same everywhere
40:46>> everywhere but but but that little razor
40:48is is if you're blaming local grievances
40:52>> for things you're unsure of probably not
40:54the right answer.
40:55>> Okay, in that case
40:58what do we do?
41:00>> Right.
41:01>> How do you get in your analogy the fish
41:03back upstream?
41:04>> Yeah, thanks for continuing the analogy.
41:08>> Yeah. Um reinvent things. in fact
41:11reinvent everything. Um,
41:16education. How about taking a year out
41:18of high school and focusing on what's
41:19important? How about taking a year out
41:21of college, focusing what's important?
41:23How about switching to lifelong
41:25learning?
41:26>> So, a 20-year-old can realistically
41:28expect to be graduating first stage of
41:30education and getting out into the
41:32workforce, choosing a career earlier,
41:33and maybe having time to actually
41:35readjust that career based on lifelong
41:36learning, saying that didn't work out.
41:38What about long-term career sbaticals?
41:41What about joining a company
41:44and
41:46becoming an employee but being able to
41:47take a 5, sevenyear sabbatical, but
41:49you're still an employee. You still get
41:51a little bit of a salary. Yeah. So, I'm
41:53simplifying the economics here for sure.
41:55But imagine you still are attached to
41:57that company. Still the business card,
41:59the email address, you go to the
42:00Christmas parties, the
42:02training sessions. You might even do
42:04half a day a week.
42:06The condition would be that after that
42:08sbatical maybe you've had one two three
42:10kids maybe not but you have that
42:11sabbatical condition is you have to come
42:13back for 3 years say just an idea and
42:17then we have some accelerator programs
42:19you know parents particularly mothers I
42:21would say are incredibly efficient good
42:24at timekeeping conflict resolution
42:26organization
42:28>> hire young mothers
42:3027 30 33 that's possible now but it's a
42:34huge vulnerability for any young person
42:36to assume okay I'm going to have the
42:38family first and then I'm going to cross
42:40everything and try and have my career.
42:41So that's what's dis disjointed at the
42:43moment. The idea that we have to
42:46complete our education in effect
42:49training whatever it is
42:51>> start a career but get onto that ladder
42:54at a certain point that the
42:56vulnerability particularly for women of
42:58stepping back is min you know right now
43:01it's not minimized but we need to
43:03minimize that risk. I think blending
43:05everything together is the only
43:06possibility. And the one hope I do see
43:09is um
43:12you know if I can go back briefly to
43:14Hungary. I get asked a lot about
43:15Hungary. I go there a lot. I work with
43:17the former president Katal Novak on a
43:20nonprofit XY worldwide and we're doing
43:22all sorts of advisory work and awareness
43:24programs around the world on this topic.
43:26So policy there is fascinating.
43:29Um
43:31there's so many policies
43:34But the one I think that may have had
43:36the most traction was if you said as a
43:38young person, I want to have a kid. You
43:42would get a mortgage deposit
43:45>> depending on the size of house you
43:46wanted.
43:48Now, why didn't everybody go for big
43:49houses? Well, they, you know, the
43:50overall risk is still higher and you
43:51don't need that space.
43:54But if you end up having those number of
43:55children, two, three, or four, the
43:58deposit's basically canceled. You don't
43:59ever pay that back. And if you don't,
44:01you pay a portion of it. And if you
44:02don't have any kids, well, you have to
44:03pay it back like you would have had done
44:04anyway. I think a lot of young people
44:06thought, "Wow, we can get a house." Now,
44:08does that sound coercive? Oh my gosh,
44:10let's get married and have kids to have
44:11a house. People don't do that. It means
44:14I think we know I mean family policies
44:17have failed so much worldwide generally
44:19that people aren't taking $5,000 and
44:21saying, "Great, let's go and let's go to
44:23the bar tonight and find find someone to
44:24kind of, you know, deposit that check
44:26with 9 months from now." That doesn't
44:28happen. This is too important. So I
44:30think enabling younger people who want
44:32children and become more aware of
44:37unplanned childlessness and this curve.
44:40Now one final thing education itself
44:42people need to be taught. Young people
44:44are taught often what's called
44:45comprehensive sex ed, not just in
44:50developed nations, but you go to parts
44:52of Africa, Southeast Asia, there are
44:55nonprofits there teaching,
44:58but it stops at
45:01how not to get pregnant.
45:03>> That's what it's all it's not
45:04comprehensive. It's that and that alone.
45:06No one's saying, "Oh, by the way, here
45:08are some risks." And if you really do
45:10want four children, the spacing thing
45:12about delaying them 3 four years might
45:14not be for you if you really want those
45:16conversations need to enter into our
45:18education system.
45:19>> Well, you use the term that you use
45:20often, which is unplanned childlessness.
45:23And I think that's really a big portion
45:25of this conversation because I I I think
45:28the overwhelming majority of people, and
45:30I include myself in this, just
45:31fundamentally do not understand
45:33fertility even remotely. So, can you
45:35talk to us a little bit about some of
45:36the the facts and myths about about
45:38that?
45:39>> Yeah. And of course, there's so many
45:41people proposing theories that sperm
45:44counts are falling and that that's a
45:45factor and that women's biology, you
45:47know, isn't quite as uh you know, it
45:50happens younger than people might think.
45:52So, uh and those all may be be true.
45:55What what I'm saying is that
45:59before biology becomes a factor, so
46:01biology is a big big thing.
46:04There's another more important factor
46:05that take it's like a filter if you
46:08like. So you know what I'll try this
46:11one. Why is the water in the river you
46:13know becoming less and less and less and
46:15less? Well it's something upstream's
46:17causing it.
46:18>> So trying to focus on that itself is an
46:21issue. But to to summarize childlessness
46:25we have voluntary childlessness. It's
46:26about 10% of people never have the
46:29desire to have children. and my
46:30experience will have no regrets and
46:32possibly won't understand those who do
46:34have that desire and vice versa. So, and
46:37we need to respect that those people
46:39have big roles to play in society and
46:42are playing big roles and nonprofits I
46:44think are the biggest contingent in some
46:45in some senses. So, that's voluntary.
46:48You then have involuntary childlessness
46:50which is quite tightly defined as either
46:52a medical reason maybe there's an
46:55illness hyctomy something happened to
46:57one of the couple or biological
46:59basically you've tried and tried and
47:01tried an IVF and it hasn't worked there
47:03is no formal category for circumstantial
47:07childlessness
47:09biggest factor not finding a partner
47:11that's not involved in childlessness
47:13other factors socioeconomic concerns so
47:16that's why I coined unplanned
47:17childlessness It's now in my published
47:19paper. So, and it was brought it's now
47:21in an international uh declaration 57
47:24nations in Porto two weeks ago. Uh um
47:27you know I worked with an Austrian MP
47:29Good Gen Cougler who included this term
47:32unplanned childlessness and I was there
47:34in person to see politicians from the
47:36UK, Labor, Liberal Democrat,
47:38Conservative times 57 nations in a
47:40cleaner session of 300 people
47:42unanimously vote to support that
47:45resolution which includes these
47:46definitions. So childlessness is not
47:49about
47:51I think people
47:54someone once said to me so this is not
47:56my analogy so I'm I'm going to get a cop
47:58out of if people don't like this it's
48:00not like buying a pet it's not like okay
48:02now is the time for a child I'm going to
48:04go down to the pet store a lot of things
48:06have to line up at the right time and
48:08finding a partner is the biggest one or
48:11not going through a breakup so many
48:13people break up at the you know dating
48:15for seven years you know sure we're
48:17going to have kids together 32 break up
48:20or something happens. So unplanned
48:21childlessness is the big factor here.
48:23And uh for the UK
48:26I recently updated my analysis a woman
48:29turning 28 in the UK
48:33has a 50/50% chance of ever becoming a
48:36mother at 28. Now most countries are
48:39below 30 but uh and the US is lower than
48:41that but the US again is Asian-Americans
48:43are a little bit different to to other
48:45groups. It's a little bit more
48:46complicated in the US, but I think
48:48simply letting young people know,
48:50sure, get as much education as you can.
48:53Sure, establish yourself on your career
48:54path, but by the way, you better think
48:57about this curve because it's there and
48:58you're, you know, like it or not. You
49:00know, you you you can't cheat the curve.
49:03It's there. And I think, you know, look,
49:05men are ignorant about fertility.
49:08Absolutely. But I also find it shocking
49:11how ignorant women are about their own
49:13fertility. They seem to think that you
49:16can just, you know, it's going to you're
49:18going to be able to have kids in your
49:1938, 39. Now, some people may be able to,
49:22and obviously that's great, and some
49:23people are able to in their early 40s,
49:26but that's really the exception of the
49:28that proves the rule, isn't it? The
49:31amount of information on this um to be
49:34honest with you,
49:36I I I can see it. Um, it's been a
49:39one-way street
49:41controlled
49:43the message, a one-way street controlled
49:44by a groups of antiatalists.
49:47>> Going back to the likes of Paul Erlick
49:48in the 1960s,
49:50the book The Population Bomb, that way
49:53of thinking got into the education
49:54system.
49:56Education materials only talk about
49:58population explosions. Still, you know,
50:01they cut off this year and they point to
50:03the year 1800 and like, "Oh, look at
50:05look at the increase."
50:06They don't then tell you, "Oh, oh yeah,
50:08by the way, it's it's going to flatten
50:10out." And then when I do point out that
50:12we are going to peak total population
50:14that's not far away now. Yeah, but year
50:182100 they will say there's still going
50:20to be around 8 n billion people. Yeah,
50:22but they're all old people needing care.
50:24It's not the same as it is now. So there
50:26are people out there trying to block
50:28messages and one of the messages that
50:30they're trying to block is educating
50:32women about fertility. So they're very
50:35happy to confuse I I've seen it. I I was
50:38invited to um Doha debates two years
50:41ago. It never aired because
50:43unfortunately um that series coincided
50:46with uh October 7th and the tone of it
50:50um the the host was a comedian and once
50:52you get comedians involved in things you
50:54know
50:56it was too serious an event I think and
50:57uh sadly it was pulled but I was
51:00debating against um you know a lady who
51:04runs a population organization for me.
51:06she's a population denier um because she
51:08would not talk about low birth rates
51:10even in her own home country of India.
51:12Um but it seems to be that you know
51:17young people are engaged to this message
51:19particularly young woman who want to
51:20hear yeah you can have a career do it
51:22you're free to whatever there there's no
51:25downside to this don't listen to Steven
51:27who represents the patriarchy you know
51:30so people like me in the past were were
51:32blamed as being you know
51:35anti-environmental now the patriarchy
51:37now the next wave of confusions coming
51:39in I've heard some politicians pick up
51:42on messages which is it's too late
51:44anyway. Let's not even think about what
51:46can we do now. I think that's another
51:47antiatalist message creeping in. So
51:49you're talking about women awareness and
51:51I'm broadening it. There's an anti- um
51:54natalist message driving many things and
51:56I've been you know I've had it in my
51:59face more than once and we're talking
52:01about an antiatalist message. I haven't
52:04seen it so much over here, but you you
52:06I've seen it certainly in the states,
52:08particularly in places like New York
52:10where bringing children into the world
52:13is seen as an act of grotesque
52:16selfishness because number one, the
52:19planet is already dying is their
52:21narrative. And then you're just going to
52:22bring children in. That's going to
52:24accelerate its demise. And also as well,
52:27I hear people going, well, you know, the
52:29world is so terrible. Why would I bring
52:31children into it? that is, you know,
52:33that's awful. They're going to suffer.
52:36>> Yeah. Um, and I I mean I I get that. I
52:40get it in comments. I get it in attacks.
52:42I got it in a classroom, university
52:44classroom in Tokyo, uh, this year doing
52:47a lecture to young Japanese students
52:49when at the end a British lecture came
52:53in and sat at the back and then got up
52:56and started heckling me. Basically
52:58saying the things, why are you here
53:00talking to these young students? Why are
53:02you trying to tell the environment's
53:03burning, the oceans are boiling, people
53:05shouldn't and wouldn't let me speak. Um,
53:09so these voices
53:11are there trying to I think poison young
53:14people's minds.
53:15>> Um, I do think it's it's a poison
53:18because why can we we not at least talk
53:20about this topic? Why can we not debate
53:22this?
53:23>> It's perhaps the most topic I there's a
53:25lot of toxic topics out there, but
53:28usually you can get a decent debate
53:30about most things.
53:32I feel in this space in the same way
53:33when I was canceled at Cambridge and you
53:36know you know there's a fake website
53:37that's been put up trying to discredit
53:39the documentary um with you know the
53:43UNFPA is now basically saying
53:46>> the message I've been sharing is right
53:48the the the report titled in the past
53:52two months was uh the real fertility
53:54crisis about people not having the
53:56children they want to have the world is
53:57shifting so I am hopeful Within a very
54:01few years, all those rogue voices will
54:04die down because they'll just be seen as
54:05the idiots and people want to talk about
54:07this.
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55:34But it to me it's not an anti-child
55:37message. To me, it's an antihuman
55:39message. It's put it's putting forward a
55:42narrative that human beings are evil and
55:45that we are a scourge on the planet.
55:47>> Yeah. So, and where does that come from?
55:50Now, that's quite an extreme viewpoint,
55:51but it's there. Um, I I've interacted
55:54online with some people with this view.
55:56Some people have, you know, made pods
55:59from that community, you know, reviewing
56:01the the documentary. So, I've seen it. I
56:04can listen to it. Now, there are some
56:05people who literally want humanity to
56:08die.
56:10and they're happy to say it.
56:13Most of them don't say it is what I
56:15figured out. Most of them know if they
56:16come out and say I want humanity to die,
56:18a lot of people are going to switch off
56:20to that message. So they find more
56:22subtle ways maybe through you know
56:25writing books called the population
56:26bomb. I I don't know but those voices
56:28but there are people and what's really
56:31interesting if you go back in history
56:33who funded a lot of the nonprofits in
56:36the space like population connection
56:39used to be called zero population growth
56:41going back to polaric in the 60s all
56:43those who's funding them not them
56:45specifically but a lot of money went
56:48into this well you look at the Ford
56:49Foundation
56:51>> um this is on record don't worry you're
56:52not going to get sued I mean it's been
56:54written about a lot the Rockefeller
56:55Foundation Rockefeller Foundation funded
56:59uh a lot of the India India campaigns on
57:02low fertility which directly or
57:04indirectly some say directly led to
57:07forced um sterilizations of something
57:10like 8 million people literally people
57:12taken off trains. Um, so there are
57:15voices out there, some quite wealthy,
57:17who to me, um,
57:23their motives at least have to be
57:25questioned as to whether they really
57:26care about humanity. But definitely some
57:28people don't. And the more I I look into
57:32this, and look, this is going to sound
57:34like a provocative question, and it
57:35really doesn't mean to.
57:38Isn't this just a natural byproduct of
57:41women becoming more educated, having
57:44more rights, having control of their
57:46reproductive rights? That most women, if
57:49we're being honest, and you it showed
57:51yourself in the dock, they don't want
57:53five or six kids. They don't want four
57:55kids. They'll be like, "Two's enough.
57:58Two is just enough. That's what I can
58:01cope with. That's what I'll be happy
58:02with. I also don't just want to be a
58:05homemaker. I also want my own life." And
58:07you're looking at these women, you go, I
58:09mean, fair enough. No. Sure. So
58:14um
58:16I would never want to be associated with
58:19anything that that would take away any
58:21woman's rights. Um in fact, I don't even
58:24want to get involved in conversations
58:26about abortion. As a man, it's like,
58:28okay, that's so delicate.
58:30>> Mhm.
58:31>> And will affect me personally
58:33in a relationship? Yes. But I try to be
58:35agnostic on all of those things. I want
58:37to say that first and then I'll get to
58:40your point about women, but let let's
58:42talk about men for a second. So this
58:44Gaussian curve that's everywhere with
58:47some data for the US for men at a
58:49granular level. It's very hard to find.
58:50And guess what? The same Gaussian curve
58:53is there for men too, just a little bit
58:54later. And as they stretch, it's like
58:57it's like a coordinated stretch.
59:00So men and women are interlin.
59:03So,
59:05it's not just about women focusing on
59:07education and focusing on other things.
59:09Men are too. We're all in this race
59:11together. And what's happened with
59:12double incomes?
59:14Well, property prices in case got double
59:16incomes. So, it's no longer an option or
59:18choice for most for only one of us to
59:21work. So, hence everything's interlin.
59:24So, if we start blaming women or
59:26thinking, well, you know, that's the
59:28solution lies with women. We're going to
59:30miss out again. M
59:31>> uh you can't move one of these curves
59:33without moving the other. So So I I
59:37think I think it's a a dead end going
59:40down. You know what happened in the
59:42past? We can't change it for me. I
59:44wouldn't want to change it. And men and
59:47women are completely linked to each
59:48other.
59:49>> But isn't that forgive me, but that's
59:52kind of where the problem is. Because if
59:54the reality is that as you say the
59:56double incomes have made everything more
59:57expensive, it then makes it very
1:00:00difficult for people to survive on one
1:00:02income and that makes it very difficult
1:00:04for people to have kids in the way that
1:00:06they would want to.
1:00:08>> And unless we address that in some way,
1:00:10we aren't going to really get anywhere.
1:00:12>> Yeah. And I come back to the Hungarian
1:00:13housing scheme again. I think government
1:00:15has to do something at that level
1:00:18>> to I mean if you're thinking of this in
1:00:21terms of pure economics
1:00:23um I I read this morning uh the UK is
1:00:27going to be the fastest growing country
1:00:29population wise in Europe and it's
1:00:31because of immigration of course. Well
1:00:33the issue there is im immigrants get old
1:00:35too. So it means if that's your policy
1:00:38um or non-p policy yeah um you're going
1:00:42to have effectively the same number or
1:00:45an increasing number of older people to
1:00:47take care of forever for as long as you
1:00:49can find immigrants and with birth rates
1:00:51going down in India and soon Africa too
1:00:54that's a risky strategy but not to get
1:00:56onto that too much the the point is here
1:00:58that unless we have new people
1:01:01>> Mhm. coming through a system,
1:01:04we won't be able to support our entire
1:01:06infrastructure for those who do have
1:01:08kids and don't have kids. So yeah, the
1:01:11the how do we get back to that age is is
1:01:16can we I don't know can we put enough
1:01:19incentives
1:01:20to create such a bubble that enough
1:01:22younger people will will have children
1:01:24and maybe even possibly have more
1:01:26children than they would have otherwise
1:01:27to support the entire system. So, it's a
1:01:29conversation we all need to be having.
1:01:31I'm not sitting here saying I've
1:01:33confidently found the solution. I'm not
1:01:35I'm saying
1:01:36>> I think this is our best chance by far.
1:01:38And by the way, it means reinventing
1:01:40just about everything.
1:01:40>> Well, Francis wants to end the education
1:01:42of women. Yeah.
1:01:44>> You know what's controversial about
1:01:46that?
1:01:46>> Why don't we try that? And then if that
1:01:47doesn't work, we'll try No, but but this
1:01:50is kind of the issue really, isn't it?
1:01:52Because uh on the one hand, we all are
1:01:55very happy for women to be educated.
1:01:57speak for yourself.
1:01:59>> And uh I don't think anybody would want
1:02:01to hold anyone back from having a
1:02:04career, male or female, if that's what
1:02:05they'd like to do. I can I can only
1:02:07speak from my experience. I know quite a
1:02:10lot of women uh in who fill different
1:02:13types of templates there. I know women
1:02:15uh who love having a career and and
1:02:18several kids and they manage it great.
1:02:21And I know some people who feel like
1:02:23well actually I had a career and it was
1:02:26on reflection now that I've had kids a
1:02:28bit of a waste of time actually. And and
1:02:31so there's that full spectrum and it
1:02:33comes back to what are the societal
1:02:36expectations? What are the cultural
1:02:37norms? What are you seeing around you?
1:02:40What are you being told by your female
1:02:42friends and relatives etc about uh
1:02:45parenthood about children etc. And I
1:02:47think it's it'd be difficult to deny
1:02:49that we have lived for some time now in
1:02:52in an environment in the west at least I
1:02:54can't speak for other places where uh
1:02:57you know children are kind of seen as a
1:03:00burden uh more than they are seen as a
1:03:02joy and as a thing that you even when we
1:03:05know from survey that surveys actually
1:03:07most women would really like to have
1:03:09kids.
1:03:09>> Yeah. Yeah. Um well certainly it's
1:03:13absolutely true that um you know most
1:03:15women want kids and there's this
1:03:18conundrum and it comes back to
1:03:19vulnerability. Do I do it now or do I
1:03:21wait another year? And a partner may be
1:03:24saying the same thing. There's some
1:03:26incentive to wait a little bit longer.
1:03:30And that's where unplanned childlessness
1:03:31kicks in. It's it's the ones that you're
1:03:33meeting who have had the career and the
1:03:35largest family um took the plunge at
1:03:38some point when someone else may have
1:03:40delayed a little bit and then other
1:03:42things happen in life and you know so
1:03:46for example in the US right now
1:03:49um for every 10 women
1:03:54uh 35 and below
1:03:58one approximately
1:04:00never wants
1:04:01Mhm. Nine do. Of the nine, three will
1:04:05not have kids. Six will based on current
1:04:07fertility patterns. You know, if you
1:04:08look at fertility last year. So for the
1:04:11nine who do, onethird of intending
1:04:14mothers will remain childless.
1:04:16>> And it's lack of awareness or lack of
1:04:18understanding of the complex factors
1:04:21like breakups, like your partner not
1:04:23being this that just creep in and then
1:04:25the moment drifts away. And this timing
1:04:28curve, it's h it put me in a bad mood
1:04:31that day in Kyoto. And I'm still in a
1:04:33bit of a bad mood because I wanted to
1:04:34think that we had more autonomy to
1:04:36choose the timing ourselves.
1:04:38>> But you can see it in the data. This
1:04:39this is to do with synchronization
1:04:42forces that just get harder and harder
1:04:44and harder. Um, you know, if if you
1:04:47imagine today you're an 18, 20-year-old
1:04:50with your first girlfriend, boyfriend,
1:04:52that's getting a little serious. You're
1:04:54probably not thinking this is the woman
1:04:56I'm going to have kids with when I get
1:04:58to 35 because that's too far away.
1:05:00You're just not even thinking that. So,
1:05:02you're thinking about, well, this is
1:05:04fun.
1:05:06And then maybe there's a breakup and
1:05:08then your partner 23, 24, you're still
1:05:11not thinking that way. And I think a lot
1:05:14of people
1:05:17drift through relationships without
1:05:19taking them seriously enough because
1:05:20that might be the best relationship you
1:05:22were ever going to have. Mhm.
1:05:23>> It's just you weren't on the same page
1:05:26as society, which is telling you, wait,
1:05:28wait, wait. And I think this has caused
1:05:30a lot of other issues. You know, the
1:05:31whole issue with young men, sexless
1:05:34young men, and I know they exist. I've
1:05:36certainly met them in Japan. Uh, I think
1:05:39they're just, you know, zoning out and
1:05:41playing, you know, in their mother's
1:05:43basement, you know, playing games
1:05:44because I think we're meant to form
1:05:47relationships sooner and that means
1:05:50something to us biologically and
1:05:52psychologically. And by knowing, well,
1:05:54I've got to wait for 15 years before I
1:05:57even can start to think about
1:05:58parenthood. I I I think it's part of a
1:06:00broader societal issue. And
1:06:04one of the things you explore are these
1:06:06people who want kids and then don't have
1:06:09them. And I've actually met a lady at a
1:06:12party in New York and she represents one
1:06:14of these organizations.
1:06:18I mean it was it was haunting talking to
1:06:21her. There was just a profound sense of
1:06:24sadness there. Profound. And it's again
1:06:28my heart goes out to even listeners of
1:06:30this because it's such a difficult topic
1:06:32and we all might assume that you our
1:06:35aunt or our colleague they must have
1:06:36never wanted kids you know they seem
1:06:38quite happy you know and it's a private
1:06:39thing um you know I I read a poem by one
1:06:44of these people I'll not remember it but
1:06:45it was just heartbreaking about being in
1:06:47the office when a new mother comes in
1:06:49with her baby to show everybody in the
1:06:51office and all the the women flock
1:06:54>> and she's locked trapped in her just
1:06:57frozen,
1:06:58unable to escape because you can't get
1:07:01past just but just wanting to get out of
1:07:04there.
1:07:05um not all feel like that and some
1:07:08people I've I've been told by this
1:07:10community I should say that later in
1:07:12life you know you can find other
1:07:14purposes but for many years decades or
1:07:16maybe forever there's a grief and that's
1:07:18what people in that category call it men
1:07:20and women I've seen men cry as much as
1:07:24women about not having the kids that
1:07:26they intended to h to have and it's just
1:07:28like what happened timing
1:07:30>> and because that's that's the thing that
1:07:32I found surprising Because I always
1:07:35thought, you know, for bloss, you know,
1:07:37well, you can you can you can have kids
1:07:39at any age. You you you like Mick Jagger
1:07:42seems to be popping them out at a rate
1:07:44that is just quite frankly staggering
1:07:46considering he's in his early 80s. But
1:07:48that doesn't that's kind of a of an
1:07:51illusion, isn't it?
1:07:53We're stupid.
1:07:55Wait, we're stupid. I mean, if you think
1:07:58about it, not all I mean, biology is a
1:08:00factor. Sure. So, we got that one in
1:08:03theory.
1:08:04But you got to find a partner and unless
1:08:06you're,
1:08:08you know, super famous, super rich,
1:08:11>> for the listeners, he's pointing us for
1:08:13answers.
1:08:13>> Yeah, exactly. Take take
1:08:17um not uh so
1:08:24it, you know, we forget that we're
1:08:26actually competing against younger
1:08:28versions of ourel.
1:08:31You know, I learned that, you know,
1:08:32divorced at, you know, 42 wasn't exactly
1:08:35planned, but there we are. I thought,
1:08:36well, I might meet someone plenty of
1:08:38time yet. And, you know, you realize,
1:08:41you know, that person over there who's
1:08:43now X years younger than me, X plus 5
1:08:46years younger than me, X plus 10 years,
1:08:48who's able to have a child, that young
1:08:49woman, you know, why would she choose me
1:08:52compared to everyone else? So, biology,
1:08:55it's we've been fooling ourselves. Uh,
1:08:57it's just it it doesn't even come into
1:09:00it. And for that one 80-year-old who has
1:09:03eight kids, you know, all that's
1:09:05happening is the woman he's having kids
1:09:06with, which are probably almost
1:09:08certainly under 40, under 35, they would
1:09:10have been having kids with somebody
1:09:11else. So there aren't more children over
1:09:13overall. So overall thing, it's just
1:09:16really uh Yeah, because and but that ti
1:09:19ties into the fact that and it's
1:09:22actually a lot of what we talk about
1:09:23here at trigonometry, which is we live
1:09:25in a society where we're fundamentally
1:09:28dishonest. not only with our children,
1:09:33not only with our peers, not only when
1:09:35we're at work, but also fundamentally
1:09:37with ourselves. We are in denial of our
1:09:40own biology.
1:09:42>> Uh lying to ourselves or biology
1:09:44generally, trying to believe we're
1:09:46younger than we actually are. And
1:09:47>> all of it, all of it. I I think I think
1:09:50and this is what it comes down to with
1:09:51this conversation is a fundamental lack
1:09:53of honesty. Yeah. And what you know
1:09:55because we think and look maybe push
1:09:57back on this if you think this is untrue
1:09:59but because we think uh being honest and
1:10:02being direct is unpleasant. It's rude
1:10:06and it's can be seen to be cruel. But
1:10:09actually to me the the the crulest thing
1:10:12that you can do is be dishonest
1:10:14particularly with a woman and say look
1:10:17your most fertile years are between X
1:10:20and Y.
1:10:22You know, you can run the you can run
1:10:24the risk if you want and try and have it
1:10:26later, but if this is what you really
1:10:29want, then this is what you need to
1:10:32optimize for and prioritize for. No,
1:10:34you're absolutely right. I mean, we all
1:10:36relish, I think, in the idea of
1:10:37longevity, that 30s, the new 20, that
1:10:4040s, the new 30, but biology hasn't
1:10:44reset itself at all. You know, and
1:10:47again, from this curve, there's no
1:10:49uptick from IVF. all this idea, well,
1:10:51you've got IVF, you've got egg freezing,
1:10:53it doesn't actually look predictively
1:10:55good for likelihood. Okay, some will
1:10:57benefit, but overall it causes more
1:10:59people to delay just because you can do
1:11:00that and many of those fall into
1:11:02unplanned childlessness sort of washes
1:11:04out.
1:11:04>> So, it is a lie. And
1:11:05>> so that promise that you can delay you
1:11:09that promise that you can delay
1:11:10parenthood incentivizes people to
1:11:13attempt it and then many of them are
1:11:14actually then unable to have the
1:11:16children that they wanted to have. Yeah,
1:11:18>> I see. That really is what I think
1:11:21Francis is talking about, which is we're
1:11:23just lying to people. Basically, we're
1:11:24just telling them things are going to be
1:11:26possible, which are for many of them not
1:11:28going to be possible. Um, and if they
1:11:30had known that, they would have made
1:11:31this whole set of different choices
1:11:33quite possibly uh in the run-up to it.
1:11:35Stephen, it's great to have you back on
1:11:36the show. Before we head on over to
1:11:38Substack and ask you questions from our
1:11:40supporters, what's the one thing that
1:11:42we're not talking about that we should
1:11:43be?
1:11:46>> The next humanitarian crisis, which will
1:11:49be aging people in countries like
1:11:52Brazil, but more particularly I'm so
1:11:54worried about old people in India. Um,
1:11:57we haven't got our head around the idea
1:11:59that these are nations that are going to
1:12:01age very rapidly without any support
1:12:03systems. And I just want people to start
1:12:05to think a bit longer term particularly
1:12:07when they criticize countries like India
1:12:09for high birth rates which was a thing
1:12:11of the past that actually the real
1:12:13crisis there is being baked in right now
1:12:16old people.
1:12:18Stephen thanks for coming on. Head on
1:12:19over to Substack where we get to ask him
1:12:21your questions.
1:12:24The usual explanations for the fall of
1:12:26the birth rate in the west involve the
1:12:28economic cost of childbearing. So why is
1:12:30the birth rate falling in Cuba and in
1:12:32North Korea where child birth and child
1:12:34care are free and supported by the
1:12:35Excellent.
1:12:37[Music]
1:12:41[Applause]
1:12:43[Music]

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