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Watch Me LIVE Backtest My Trading Strategy for 30 Days (Full Process) — Transcript

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0:00I spent the first years of my trading
0:02completely overwhelmed by random
0:03concepts and jumping from different
0:05strategies just hoping that something
0:07would work, but it wasn't until I
0:09developed my system, the same one that
0:11I've been trading for the past 5 years,
0:13that I actually found consistency in my
0:15trading. So, here you'll watch me live
0:16backtest my system. You'll see every
0:19single trade from start to finish, every
0:21decision I make and why I'm making it,
0:23and I'll walk you through the entire
0:25thought process through each step. All
0:26so that you can understand the logic and
0:28apply it for yourself in the same way
0:30that you see me taking these trades
0:32every single week in the live market.
0:34So, we'll just use this to get a random
0:35start date. I'm going to ask it to give
0:38me a random Monday from the beginning of
0:432022 to the end of 2024. That's probably
0:47a good range of time.
0:49All right. So, April 22nd, 2024, that's
0:51going to be our start date for the
0:53backtesting session. Here we have the
0:54session all set up. The account balance,
0:56I kept it at the default of 100,000.
0:59Then with the assets, ES, NQ, and YM,
1:01that's what I'm trading 99% of the time
1:04in the live market, so no reason to move
1:06outside of that. I want to focus on
1:07these pairs here. And then we have our
1:09initial date at 4/22/2024.
1:12And I don't have a specific end date set
1:14because I'm really just going to take
1:15this day by day and trade by trade. I
1:17don't want to sacrifice the quality of
1:19explaining my thought process by trying
1:21to force in a lot of trades in this one
1:23video. I'm just going to take my time
1:25with it, and whatever we end up with at
1:27the end of the time I'm giving for this
1:28video is what we'll have. So, with that,
1:30we can go ahead and create the session.
1:32All right. So, we're all loaded in. The
1:34only thing that I want to point out to
1:35make this easier for you all is that I
1:37have three charts set up here, and I'm
1:38going to switch in between them, but you
1:40can see I have ES on the left, NQ in the
1:43middle, and YM on the right. You'll
1:45notice that I'm mainly focused on ES and
1:47NQ throughout this whole thing. YM
1:49usually stays off to the side. Sometimes
1:52it'll come in for framework using it for
1:54divergences. A lot of the times it'll be
1:56around 9:30 for entries, but majority of
1:59focus is going to remain here and you
2:01guys will be able to follow along with
2:02what I'm explaining. Now, with that out
2:04of the way, we'll just jump right into
2:05this and I'm already immediately seeing
2:06something. It's good that we started on
2:08a Monday and I chose that for a reason
2:09because that's really where I start my
2:11week with a specific process and this is
2:13a good example here where we have a
2:16previous week close in an expansion
2:18rule. If we focus on NQ here, we have
2:21one expansion day, two and three into
2:24the previous week close at the extremes
2:26and then we expect the market to either
2:28reverse, return back into the range, or
2:30consolidate in range. So, Monday here is
2:34something I'd let print either way
2:35because I want that additional context.
2:37So, what does Monday do here and what
2:39does that lead me into assuming that
2:41Tuesday should do? And Tuesday's really
2:43where I'm going to start my trading. I'm
2:44definitely always partial to the
2:45continuation. I'm seeing this framework
2:48on YM, but also ES as well where that
2:50previous Friday had that larger wick off
2:53the low and then we expanded higher away
2:54from it. So, we potentially have a
2:57Monday low, a continuation away, and
3:00Tuesday can just be a continuation of
3:02that move as well. The only opposing
3:04reaction that I'm really seeing is this
3:07previous day high, which is its own
3:08relevant swing. We have that wick here.
3:11So, I'm keeping that as a secondary
3:13thought. That's always possible because
3:15we do have some divergences in the
3:16market as well, but ultimately leaning
3:19towards continuation and I'd want to see
3:20the daily profile development just
3:23alongside this here. I'm also just going
3:24to throw on the invalidation point from
3:26the closing price to the opposing wick
3:29right here. So, if we do end up
3:31developing bullish, I want to see it in
3:33respect to that. Go to the 7-hour and
3:35just allow this to start printing so
3:37that 18 candle, 1:00 candle coming in,
3:40expansion away. So, 18 candle low, not
3:42trading in that 1:00 candle. If we're
3:44bullish, one thing that this does help
3:46with context, which is why development
3:48is so important, is I know we are
3:51starting to invalidate the wick that we
3:54had that opposing concern with. We're
3:56starting to expand through it and
3:57aligning a bullish profile. So,
3:59immediately this is starting to look
4:02good. Let's get even more of a push. And
4:04now we have these failure swings up into
4:07the previous day high. We've invalidated
4:08that wick, especially when you think
4:10about NQ here. If we were bearish, we
4:12would have wanted to see that respected.
4:14We've traded through it. 18 reversal in
4:16the profile. Now, this here is where I
4:18want to see continued development into
4:20New York. I'd set an invalidation point
4:22inside of that London session. If we are
4:24going to get bullish, then we should see
4:26price respect here. Start dropping to my
4:27intermediate time frames. Need that 8:00
4:30candle open right here. And already this
4:33is actually looking very good. I'm going
4:35to slow this down because we already
4:37have a potential entry on this. If we
4:39get a closure on this 30-minute,
4:412-minute, 1-minute. Right here. Okay,
4:43this is going to be an entry because
4:4530-minute, I'm seeing deep run back into
4:49our invalidation point. Divergence off
4:52the lows here. Closure through valid
4:54opposing candles. So, immediately I'm
4:56thinking we've invalidated any concern
4:59for the downside. We've aligned an 18
5:01reversal profile. We're respecting the
5:03invalidation point, but even more so, we
5:05went deep into that session where
5:07there's no reason to return back down
5:09here.
5:1030-minute time frame continuation
5:12signature, very high quality. This is
5:14enough range where I could position into
5:17the open here and put on an initial
5:18entry. And we have this overnight
5:20session already showing it wants to be
5:22directional. So, this here is going to
5:24be my initial entry to get on side here.
5:26And even high potential here to get a
5:29pyramid entry because this is 8:30. We
5:32have 9:30 in another hour, so we can
5:34look for that as well. So, I'm going to
5:36take this on NQ. There's no real
5:37difference in strength or weakness, but
5:39pre-open entries I favor NQ just because
5:42at open, a lot of the times you can see
5:44ES getting caught in between where NQ
5:47and YM make those more directional moves
5:49at the open. So, I'm partial to taking
5:51NQ regardless. We'll go in, place that
5:54order, and we're going to stick with 1%
5:56risk just because that's easy to keep it
5:58consistent throughout this whole thing.
6:00Took off that take profit so we can just
6:02manage it ourselves, and let's just
6:04allow this to start playing out. Really
6:06good push at the open there. So, 9:30,
6:09impulsive move higher. This is where we
6:11could start to think if we've expanded
6:12to the upside, if we start to get new
6:14signatures, we can refine down.
6:16We could find a potential pyramid entry
6:20already on the 5-minute. So, my thought
6:23process here is we have these wicks. I'm
6:25seeing that upper wick, lower wick, and
6:27then we're starting to expand back
6:29higher after 9:30 is supporting this
6:31move to the upside. I'm going to start
6:33refining. Okay, perfect. Look at that
6:354-minute. Compare that five, 4-minute,
6:37giving that opposing candle that we
6:39want. If we get this closure, how much
6:41time's left? Okay, 4-minutes right
6:42there. Closure. This could be your
6:45initial entry, but also I'm going to
6:46take a pyramid entry here, trail my stop
6:49up, and we can add to this position
6:50without increasing risk. This is like
6:52the ideal condition that we want to be
6:54in. So, I'm going to add here, going to
6:57place an order on this. Always market
6:59order, place order. I won't do it as
7:02large. I'll do a 0.7
7:04add, and then I'll remove the take
7:06profit again. I don't know if this is
7:07going to average it out. No, it doesn't
7:09do that. So, in an actual market when
7:11you have this position on, it's going to
7:13bump your average higher so we could
7:15trail to our new invalidation point.
7:18It's the same principle here, but it
7:20doesn't look the same as it really would
7:21in a live market. Nonetheless, here we
7:24would close off risk on our initial
7:26position, and then we could hold our new
7:29invalidation point around here. And now
7:31we just want to see this continuing to
7:33play out. New closure above, again,
7:34that's really good. Okay, here. And once
7:37I see that impulsive move higher, I like
7:39to scale into strength here. So, if I am
7:42already up 2R in that initial position,
7:44then I'm going to want to start scaling
7:47potentially here. Yeah, so we're up 2R,
7:49that's what we like to see. I'm just
7:51keeping that as my reference point. So,
7:54I'm going to close out 50% on this just
7:57to start scaling and securing profits.
7:59And again, I can I can even start
8:01trailing my stops to new invalidation
8:03points here and just allowing this to
8:04keep pushing. Another good push,
8:07unrealized 2,700. This again, I would
8:10take partials and even partial on this
8:13position, but nothing too aggressive
8:15because we still have room on this day.
8:16This is moving really nicely. So, my
8:19next step since I've just secured about
8:21a 2R, because I pyramided, I have a lot
8:24more room to manage. I'm going to look
8:25for a new invalidation point to form. If
8:27I can trail my stop, it should not
8:29return
8:30back around here anyways. Okay, failed
8:32that closure.
8:34Okay, running a short-term low, new
8:35closure above, valid opposing candle.
8:37I'm going to trail my stop up this new
8:39invalidation point to protect risk, but
8:41we're looking for even that one more
8:43additional push and we can start scaling
8:45really aggressively.
8:46So, it looks like it's
8:48it's going to pop higher.
8:50Okay, it took a little bit of time, but
8:52that to me is another good push. So, I'm
8:55going to scale a lot more aggressively
8:58on my initial position, lighter on the
9:00second, and again, trail my stop up to
9:03new areas that price should not return
9:05back to. But, we're scaling out into
9:07strength. I'm not allowing it to trail
9:09deep back on my position. What time is
9:11it? 14:20, so it's coming up to the end
9:14of the day. We're going to end up
9:15closing out regardless.
9:22There's the close of the day. Just based
9:24on time, I'm going to close out that
9:25position fully. That is the absolute
9:27extent, but this is an ideal expansion
9:29day that we can really capture a lot on
9:32with that pyramid entry. All right, so
9:34we got that closed out. That's an
9:36amazing day, honestly. Like this is
9:37exactly what we're looking for inside of
9:39expansion days to take advantage of. So,
9:42let's look at that closure and see what
9:45that means for the following day. So,
9:47great expansion move away from that
9:48Monday low. So, Tuesday continuation.
9:51I'm seeing this as an opposing target,
9:54the closest one. So, I'm expecting this
9:57day to continue. Again, I'm always going
9:59to lead towards that continuation if the
10:01previous day made that move and there's
10:03no reason right now for me to assume
10:05otherwise. I'm going to look for a
10:06continuation up to and through that
10:08high. I'm just keeping this on my chart
10:11just because this is an opposing
10:12relevant high that could create a
10:15reaction and that might even make a
10:17short opportunity. So, I just want to
10:18keep my eye on that. But, again, more of
10:20a secondary thought. We'll set these
10:22invalidation points down and then just
10:23track the daily profile.
10:26Potential 18 candle low.
10:29Okay, it seems like we're potentially
10:31reacting off of that high through the
10:32London session. Okay, back up into the
10:35range and allowing that New York session
10:36to print. So, this here is not a highly
10:38decisive daily profile, especially when
10:40the bias is a little bit concerned of
10:43this high. But, I'm going to focus more
10:44towards NQ because it seems a lot
10:46stronger. Potentially could take out
10:48this London session low and respect it
10:50here. But, I'm going to want to track
10:51this on a lower time frame.
10:55Just going to keep an eye on how 9:30
10:57trades here. There's no 15-minute
10:58closure, so I can't act on this. I'm
11:00just going to want to see pretty quick
11:02expansion higher. See what that closure
11:03looks like. Okay, so here, I'm going to
11:06kind of put ES to the side because NQ
11:08has divergence off that session low.
11:109:30 is breaking higher. So, if we get
11:125-minute signature, I can't enter
11:1415-minute cuz that stop is so wide. But,
11:16if we end up getting a 5-minute, I could
11:17entertain this as a continuation
11:19signature. Okay, yeah, right there,
11:21that's immediately off. Just because if
11:23we get a closure back above, the stop is
11:25way too wide. I would have entertained
11:27it if we had a quick move here. But, now
11:29that that's in the market, I can't
11:31really do anything with the day. Even if
11:32we close back above, failing to do so,
11:35no. So, this day itself, it looks like
11:37we're getting a reaction off of that
11:39relevant high. Sometimes this could
11:41create an opposing opportunity. We have
11:43a divergence off that session high, but
11:45the development is just not really very
11:47clear. As I see, it doesn't end up
11:49breaking down, but I would not find
11:51myself positioning inside of this day.
11:54It's more of an invalidation of the
11:55upside, no entry offered. We just filter
11:57out the day and allow that data print,
12:00and we'll just use that as context for
12:02the following day. So, just considering
12:04this reaction, again, I favor the
12:05continuation. That's your reaction off
12:07the opposing relevant high. It makes
12:09sense. It's not actionable for me inside
12:11of the day itself, but for the following
12:13day, I would be interested in
12:15continuation. Again, posing high,
12:17closing price invalidation point. If we
12:19align a bearish daily profile, I know we
12:21could react off of previous day low, but
12:23a bearish daily profile would be
12:25actionable here to take a sell.
12:30Getting a bit of a reaction on both
12:31sides of the range, so not fully
12:34one-sided at the moment. This is where
12:36I'll start to drop down. So, we're
12:38trying to basically exclude that upside
12:41move that was made off of the 18 candle
12:43low, because it's a bit two-sided here,
12:45but I am seeing, if you go back to the
12:48profile here, 1:00 candle high breaking
12:50away from it in the New York session.
12:52This here could definitely be of
12:53interest, because if we were going to
12:56get bullish from here, trading away from
12:58this low,
12:59this series of down close candles, 30
13:01minutes especially, we would have been
13:03getting this closure back through
13:05immediately. Again, deeper tracings are
13:06not a thing inside of expansion days. If
13:09we're going to make another move lower,
13:11that is invalidating the upside. So,
13:13this new closure below to me is
13:15invalidating that upside, and then I
13:16could look at this as a sell
13:18opportunity. If we get this closure
13:21below, which it looks like we're going
13:22to. Okay, so right here, we do get that
13:25closure, run on a short-term high,
13:27continuation sequence from that London
13:29session, reversal to continuation, and a
13:32nice range on that stop, so enough that
13:35I'd feel comfortable with. I do see we
13:37have some news, GDP. Okay, that that's
13:40has potential for volatility, but not in
13:43the sense that I couldn't take a trade
13:44before it. So, I'm going to look for
13:47this as the continuation. You can see
13:48our setup here, 1:00 candle reversal
13:51invalidating the upside and wanted to
13:52see that 15-minute expand to the
13:54downside. So, we'll put on a short here.
13:56So, we're in here, stop at the opposing
13:58swing. Again, I like NQ pre-market, so
14:01we're just going to allow this to play
14:02through, and overall just kind of
14:04curious where this news goes.
14:09All right. Well, that that's
14:11unfortunate, honestly, because usually
14:14we're going to see that low-impact news
14:15respect these signatures. It's going to
14:17probably fall through on this framework.
14:18Yeah. Yeah, that's honestly that's
14:21slightly unfortunate to get wicked out
14:23like that on the news.
14:24But, this is what we're looking for. I
14:25mean, we have that profile. We're
14:27bearish daily, London reversal, trade
14:29away from that session high. We have our
14:31continuation sequence, so I'm fine with
14:33that entry. That's just not really not
14:36what you'd like to see, but nonetheless,
14:38that's a trade I would definitely take
14:39again. I can't mess with it after it's
14:40expanded like that. I like to be
14:42positioned around that daily open near
14:44more of this higher timeframe structure.
14:46Once we start to break, it's just not
14:48really for me. So, that would have been
14:50a a really nice trade, uh but we're
14:53likely just going to allow this day to
14:54go after that. So, it looks like the
14:56rest of that day ended up expanding
14:57higher into the close. So, we were
14:59looking to capture this move here, which
15:00would have been plenty. This is a bit of
15:02an outlier move into the close of that
15:04day, but that's going to be pretty
15:06helpful for the following day because
15:09again, we have a manipulation of a
15:11relevant low, a divergence off these
15:13relevant lows. So, again, we have a
15:15really aggressive move to the upside.
15:18We're going to favor continuation here
15:20and follow that same process. It's not
15:21really going to change too much here.
15:23We're going to set that in validation
15:24point just as reference, although that's
15:26a pretty deep run because of how large
15:28of a range that is, and we're just going
15:29to start tracking this daily profile. 18
15:32candle holding a low.
15:34London session making an opposing run.
15:36So, we have this opposing run, 18 candle
15:38opposing run, 1:00 candle. We do close
15:41back into the range, but when I look at
15:43this, I don't immediately think London
15:45reversal, especially if we drop down.
15:48This is really consolidated action, so
15:51we're going to want to see a little bit
15:52more here. We haven't even broken away
15:54from the intraday low. So, I'm not going
15:55to confirm that already. Like we drop
15:58right down into it. There's some news
15:59here, low impact, so
16:01that's our first impulsive move higher.
16:03That does run out the previous day high,
16:05which is a relevant swing here. So, I'm
16:07going to have to keep focus on that
16:09because if we get a continuation
16:12sequence off that, right 9:30, pairing
16:14with our next volatility driver. If we
16:15break down immediately, then we could
16:17see valid shorts off that previous day
16:18high. I'm going to drop lower time
16:20frame. For shorts to validate through
16:22the open, we'd basically need an
16:23immediate move lower. Okay, this closure
16:26here. We kind of got a bit extended
16:28there. This here is a valid reversal
16:319:30. Because we zoom back out, we did
16:33end up running out that London session
16:34low, running this out, and now we've
16:36invalidated that bearish idea that could
16:38have been in play following the news.
16:39That closure here is absolutely valid in
16:42respect to the initial reversal, closure
16:44through in the continuation signature. I
16:46shouldn't have moved, I mean even a
16:47minute, it bumped this up. I would want
16:49to be positioned around here, but
16:51nonetheless, I'm just for the sake of
16:52the example, let's take this entry. Stop
16:54would have to go down here, but we'll
16:57adjust accordingly. Live market as these
16:59are printing, we'd be positioned on the
17:01market order very close to the open of
17:03this candle, but let's just see how we
17:05get along here.
17:09We don't really have ideal development
17:10in the overnight session, so I'm going
17:12to judge this more as if I took an entry
17:13around here for what my 2R would look
17:15like, just because I want to keep that
17:17in mind, but we'll do a little bit of
17:18both at the same time.
17:20If we close above, I'm going to trail my
17:21stop. Okay, so right here
17:24I'm going to trail that stop reaching
17:26about 1.5R. No reason to return back
17:28down. Okay, so proper entry, that's
17:31going to be your first scale. So I'm
17:32going to take 50% off here.
17:37Close that out and if we're relative to
17:40our actual position here, risk reward is
17:42definitely smaller, um but we can still
17:44see more room on this day. See how this
17:45plays out. Again, another push. We can
17:47scale out small into strength. Deep run
17:50back. If we get a new closure again, I'm
17:51going to trail my stop just to protect
17:52risk. It's good enough where I'm going
17:54to trail my stop up here. Right now it's
17:5712:00 so there's a little bit of time if
17:59we stay in this trade.
18:01Okay, so for our initial position, this
18:04here is probably good enough.
18:07Realistically again, if we're getting
18:08onside here, stop loss
18:102.5. Very slow chop. So we're getting
18:14into the end of the day here. We're
18:16getting a bit late into the day and
18:17we're chopping around getting into this
18:19high. So I would start scaling even more
18:21just very aggressively here because I
18:24don't have extreme expectation for the
18:26rest of this day.
18:27But again, I'm just going to trail my
18:28stop a little bit higher here on
18:31whatever is left on that position.
18:34Let's close.
18:36Okay. So we just got trailed out there.
18:38That is the end of the trade. That 1
18:40minute that skipped ahead, it pushed our
18:42entry a little bit higher than
18:43realistically what it would have been,
18:44but you have that New York reversal
18:45profile, continuation of the daily, and
18:48just tracking the development here
18:49getting that continuation sequence
18:51trading that for at least 2R up and
18:53through that intraday high. Now that
18:55daily closure is pretty neutral. That's
18:56not a very large expansion like we could
18:59have been expecting following a day like
19:00this. We still got our piece, but going
19:03into a new Monday, neutral previous week
19:05closure
19:06I'm just going to let Monday print and
19:07then we'll go from there. Now with
19:09Monday printed here, that's not really
19:11providing me that much more context. If
19:13you drop down, it [clears throat] looks
19:15even worse on the hourly in complete
19:17honesty. We have these failure swings
19:19off the highs, which is going to be my
19:21main point of reference. I'm going to
19:23keep that noted out, these highs,
19:26because if we just break down, we can't
19:29trade away from that. We could trade up
19:31into them, which is absolutely an
19:33option, but I'm going to need to see
19:35a lot more development into the Asian
19:37London session of this following day.
19:40So, some news there at 8:30. We did end
19:42up just fading away from these failure
19:44swings at the highs too deep back into
19:46this low to trade away from it. So, I am
19:48now just going to have to treat this
19:50like a range because
19:52if we remain internal here, if we trade
19:54higher, I can't trade away from those
19:56lows. If we trade up and don't take this
19:58high, then I can't trade it lower. So,
20:00we're basically going to treat this like
20:01a range and because we're so close to
20:03this low, just really putting attention
20:05here. We're going to likely pair that
20:07with the open, but we're just going to
20:08watch lower time frames because all that
20:10really matters is this external high and
20:12low. Because the mindset here is really
20:14just what is the framework. We're still
20:16on step one, even though I'm lower time
20:18frame here. We haven't even passed step
20:20one of the model, which is engagement of
20:22a relevant swing. Whether that's on a
20:23previous day or intraday basis. So,
20:25there's our first engagement there. Do
20:26we manipulate a breakout? It's it's a
20:29bit late. So, let's see.
20:31Closure here. You technically could sell
20:33this because that is a breakout. We
20:35engaged a relevant low, opposing candle,
20:38failed to manipulate. So, that would be
20:39our signature. I'm not going to take
20:41this trade just because I want to keep a
20:43quality for you guys, but this is
20:46something that could be entertained.
20:47Sorry, closure through.
20:49It might run up.
20:51I don't know. Got saved by that
20:52volatility. So, right there, right?
20:54That's your breakout of that low and
20:56continuation. This is the type of
20:58opposing candles that I look for, but
21:00we're too late into this day. It's an
21:02hour left in the day. So, we would have
21:03liked to see this either paired with the
21:05open or more valid opposing candles to
21:07position with this move, but you can see
21:09the logic of waiting for the external
21:10range breakout signature and
21:13continuation move. Decent one into the
21:15close. All right, so we're going to
21:16allow this to print and we're just going
21:17to watch what that daily candle is for
21:18the following day. Now, I'm just
21:20realizing here we have FOMC press
21:21conference on this following day, so
21:23Wednesday here is where that news event
21:24lands. I do not trade pre-market, nor
21:28does FOMC press conference really ever
21:30provide me a trade opportunity, so this
21:32is probably just going to be another
21:32skip day and just use that development
21:35to help us gauge what we should focus on
21:37after that. All right, so here's that
21:38day here. FOMC press conference in the
21:40PM session. Everything prior to it is
21:42just highly consolidated, so we don't
21:43want to participate in there. And then
21:45the news event gets very volatile and
21:47often times is not coming off of a
21:49framework, so in here I don't want to
21:50have you guys trading this event. It's
21:52not really something I promote people do
21:54anyway, so we're just going to use this
21:55as the framework and if we go back to
21:57the daily, that large wick, or we had a
21:59manipulation, expansion away, and now we
22:02have this large wick that can be acted
22:04as an area to then seek a continuation
22:07from into these lows. So, that's going
22:09to be our initial framework going into
22:10this day and I already know with this
22:12small wick, especially when I saw on
22:14that hourly, we have these failure
22:15swings off the lows. So, if we just
22:16expand higher, that's not a trade. So,
22:18we're definitely looking bearish
22:20initially. So, I'm just going to set
22:21that invalidation point. Got that set on
22:24ES and NQ, so we're just going to watch
22:26this 7-hour development making a run
22:29higher and no reversal inside of 1:00
22:32candle. So, now we're running out that
22:33high in New York. Basically sitting
22:35right at this invalidation point, so we
22:37can't go much further if we're going to
22:38validate this. So, that's not a negative
22:40thing because we basically know if this
22:42is going to occur, we have to demand it
22:44basically happens now. So, let's see if
22:46we get any sequence on the lower time
22:48frames to actually trade this. Focus
22:50here on NQ, potential 8:00 reversal.
22:5315-minute did get its closure here. So,
22:56now I just want to see how we follow up
22:58on that.
22:59Up close candle.
23:01Retest.
23:04Okay, so we do get a continuation
23:06signature here respecting that initial
23:08reversal new closure through and we are
23:11pairing it with 9:30 running out of
23:12short-term high expanding lower. So the
23:14only thing with this trade is we can put
23:17this on. I just need to make sure that
23:18this is going to give us two hour to the
23:20lows because I can imagine that's
23:22basically where it needs to go. Anything
23:23beyond that's not really necessary. So
23:26what we have Okay, 2.5 to the lows
23:28that's enough to put this trade on. So
23:30take a short at this. We have this on
23:329:30 expanded price lower in the
23:34continuation. At the extreme of the
23:36invalidation point. So we have a logical
23:38target in place. So we basically have
23:39everything we need. So we can keep this
23:41pretty simple. That's perfect around the
23:43open. We like to see that move.
23:465 minute nothing yet.
23:48Yeah, that's great. And I'm just going
23:50to note this out because we really just
23:52need to see this. Like this is just keep
23:53it super simple. Invalidation point two
23:56failure swings perfect. So we're going
23:58to close out. Let's Is there anything
24:01beyond this that I can really look for?
24:03These lows here 220 80 or 317. Okay, so
24:07we can I won't take full off here, but
24:09I'm going to make sure I protect this
24:10one because we have logical reason that
24:13we could see these lows. So let me go
24:15back. How much can I take off here? So
24:17generally I would like to do let's do
24:2080% of this position so we can secure
24:23most of it past the two hour and then we
24:24can protect majority here. So we'll
24:27close that out and then we're going to
24:29try to find where we can trail our
24:31The thing with this is we can obviously
24:32protect the position, but there isn't
24:35any opposing candles near the low. There
24:37might be something in here with this
24:38wick. Again, yeah lower time frame. I'm
24:40going to keep it here. That's enough
24:42where it's around our two hour where I'm
24:43still fine if I get trailed out there,
24:45but I want to give it some room. It is
24:46the Okay, now wants to
24:48Yeah, that's a that's a relevant low.
24:50That's why we have to be a little bit
24:51more aggressive on the trade management.
24:52So 80% off trailed out at around that
24:55two hour perfectly fine on that trade.
24:56So we're going to stick with that. I
24:58would not reverse this day just because
25:01this is the type of move I'm looking
25:02for, that opposing run reversal
25:04expansion New York session. So, that's
25:06exactly what we're looking for. We hit
25:07our target. It's reversing there, which
25:09makes sense, but I'm not going to
25:10entertain any move for the rest of this
25:12day. So, we're just going to let this
25:13day close. So, that's our daily closure.
25:15We have the manipulation of the relevant
25:17low divergence with YM over here. So,
25:19this is not a failure swing and again
25:22leaning towards continuation. That's
25:24where I'm going to want to put my focus.
25:25This following day, I have basically
25:27every reason to want to see a move up
25:29into these previous highs. That is a
25:31logical target and the only opposing
25:34thing could be this previous daily high,
25:37but we'll keep an eye on that as we just
25:38track the daily profile development.
25:41Looks like we have Oh, we have NFP on
25:43this day. Is this Friday? Okay, this is
25:45a Friday. Okay, so we have to wait for
25:468:30. There's high impact news here, so
25:49there's no choice but to wait for 8:30
25:51anyways, so let's just let that pass and
25:54then we're going to focus on it from
25:55there. So, there's that reaction at 8:30
25:58and that's a very aggressive move
25:59higher. It is in a framework where we
26:01could have seen a continuation. It's
26:03kind of unfortunate that news prints
26:04like that sometimes just because if we
26:06zoom out to the daily profile, that's a
26:08London reversal that we could definitely
26:10be trading, but we're not trading
26:11through news. It's just not an option in
26:13a real market. So, here my only option
26:16I'm going to again judge is there
26:18anything left on this day? We have a
26:19target still open. ADRs 316. All right,
26:22we we still have room on this day. So, I
26:25would entertain if we can find a new
26:27continuation signature. We still have
26:29the open, so I'm going to watch that if
26:31we stay propped up just for a further
26:33continuation, but it's got to be
26:34slightly reduced expectations. Not
26:37really printing anything on this
26:3815-minute that would give me
26:40perspective. 9:30 is expanding higher,
26:43but we look for the valid posting candle
26:46to kind of work off of. So, it's our
26:47first look. A bit of a deeper one. So,
26:50the thing with this is we're just so
26:51capped in the range for this day. All
26:54right, we just hit the ADR. 315 and and
26:57this limited move is not giving an entry
26:58signature after this deep run. I'm not
27:01going to trade this opposing move back
27:03down. Again, I like that fluid move.
27:04Form the low of day, align the daily
27:06profile expand away. The news is just
27:09capturing the majority of it, so I'm not
27:10going to find myself in anything here.
27:12So, in terms of the buys in the
27:14framework off the daily, I mean that's
27:15perfect. That's exactly what we want to
27:17see. The news just made the majority of
27:19that daily candle. Like there's just
27:20nothing you can do about it. So, today
27:22on this day, I'm just going to look for
27:24another continuation. There's just no
27:26reason to not assume that. We haven't
27:28made an opposing reaction. We can make 3
27:30days of continuation. So, again on this
27:32day, I know it's a Monday, but we're
27:33one-sided bias here. There's nothing
27:36suggesting that we should trade lower.
27:38So, if we get alignment of a bullish
27:40profile, we have a breakout of the
27:41relevant high, manipulation at the lows,
27:43this could be our third day of
27:44continuation. So, that's going to be my
27:46perspective and keep it super
27:48straightforward. So, we see that 18
27:50candle making an opposing run, London
27:52session running out that session low,
27:54starting to trade back to the upside,
27:56which is interesting. Let's look to the
27:59lower time frames here. Oh, hold up.
28:02This actually looks really good.
28:03Already, we're seeing that development
28:05starting to play out off of that 18
28:07candle low, and we're getting that
28:09continuation sequence that I really like
28:10to see in a directional overnight
28:13session. Look how volatile this is.
28:15We're not just consolidating through
28:16time. We're making a low of day, an
28:18impulsive move away, an impulsive move
28:20away. So, we have a initial reversal
28:23here, which is not what I'm entering on,
28:25but this is a very similar type of
28:28framework where we can take a positional
28:29entry right here. Obviously, I would
28:31have wanted to take it here, but just
28:33cuz we're in this example already, let's
28:35take this as our initial position. Stop
28:37loss the opposing swing. And again, this
28:39is what time is it? 5:30. We can look to
28:42see into the deeper part of the New York
28:44session. If we hold this and keep
28:46expanding higher, we can just keep
28:47looking for new entries. That's the
28:48power of the daily candle, where we can
28:50keep stacking up a trade in a condition
28:52like this, if we do end up respecting
28:54this move. So, again, NQ is a lot more
28:57interesting pre-market, just because
28:58we're better chance of getting
29:00follow-through. So, let's put this order
29:01on, 1% risk. All right, and we're in
29:03here. We'll move it to 5-minute, and
29:06just allow this to play through.
29:08And the reason that we're taking this
29:10overnight session entry, we can just
29:12keep assuming it's already been
29:13directional. We should want it keep
29:15seeing that.
29:18I have a nice wide stop, so that e- even
29:21this could be a pyramid entry. Uh I
29:23don't want to do it too early, because
29:25it's not the open yet, but like that
29:26even looks really good.
29:29Okay, here's 9:30. This is where I start
29:30to get interested. So, let's keep an
29:32eye. Look at that divergence here. Lower
29:35lows. I want to refine down.
29:37Higher low, lower low, so divergence.
29:40This is not a great-looking 5-minute, so
29:42I'm going to start refining down. Decent
29:44for Oh, this is perfect. I I keep
29:46skipping too far ahead. Like, look at
29:48how good this looks. 3-minute is that
29:50bulky candle body. We started to retrace
29:52a little bit, so I'm going to start
29:53taking this here. This is going to be my
29:55pyramid entry, where we can now trail
29:57our stop to that new invalidation point.
30:00So, market entry, stop at the opposing
30:02swing, new invalidation, and we're going
30:04to place a slightly smaller-sized entry.
30:08Put that on, and we're going to trail
30:11our previous stop.
30:16Okay, a bit of a deep run, but
30:18Okay, good move back up.
30:20I just want to see that
30:21break higher.
30:27So, I'm in a spot where I'd want to
30:28really trail my stop in this
30:30consolidation. Just kind of let the
30:32market do its thing. If we really break
30:34higher, I'll start to consider trailing,
30:36but we've generally protected risk, so
30:39that really gives us a lot of room to
30:41let this go.
30:44Definitely lagging price action, but it
30:46just got to keep letting it go. Just
30:49waiting if this is going to make that
30:50push.
30:52We're kind of at a point if I go back to
30:54judge my entry, think about where we put
30:56this trade on, got to keep this in
30:58perspective. Initial entry,
31:01stop loss. Right here, we're up 2.5. So,
31:04I got to start scaling my position. This
31:05has been very choppy, but you can see
31:07how taking that pyramid entry and
31:09protecting the trade early gives us so
31:11much room to manage through this right
31:13here. So, I'm going to scale 75% here,
31:16and then I'm going to take 75% on this
31:18as well. And now is at a point where I'd
31:20start to trail my stop more aggressively
31:23because I've started to scale, there's
31:24only so much that can really happen now.
31:28Okay, that's a good break higher. It's
31:29getting late into the day. I'm going to
31:31keep scaling pretty aggressively. I'm
31:32going to close this one out fully and
31:34just deal with the other trade here. And
31:37this is all just extra. Like, I can't
31:40make a mistake here necessarily. If we
31:42get an additional push into the close,
31:44then that's just more that I can take
31:46from it. But, I can't really make a
31:48mistake. Like, this is just giving me
31:50more. Oh god, I should have held more.
31:51Nonetheless, all right, I'm going to
31:52close that trade out. This is what?
31:54Yeah, this is the end of the day. 100%
31:56closed. So, but but you can see what I
31:57mean where I can sustain this because we
32:00took our entry so early and we're
32:01protecting risk early, but also when I
32:03scale into strength, I can trail my stop
32:05up. If it trails me out, fine, but also
32:07I can capture this additional move if
32:09the market wants to make it. That right
32:11there is the type of framework that's
32:13everything I could ever ask for and
32:14more. So, let's just let that day print
32:16and we're going to move on to the next
32:18here. So, another good follow-through
32:20day. We do have technically an expansion
32:22rule, but I do weigh it a lot more heavy
32:25when it's within the same week. We have
32:26that Monday continuation, so that breaks
32:28up the previous week close. So, we could
32:30still see another continuation, and I'm
32:33open to that. I'm just going to watch
32:34this daily profile development pretty
32:36much just based off of previous day high
32:39as a relevant high and then if we do end
32:41up respecting that and printing a
32:42bullish profile, I am open to taking a
32:45long on that, but context over
32:46everything. Like we just need to allow
32:48the data print and we're going to make a
32:50better informed decision from there.
32:53This looks pretty good across the pairs
32:55we have London reversal potential here
32:58on NQ YM 18 reversal showing more
33:01strength. So I'm going to keep an eye on
33:03that, but that's more dependent on the
33:04open. So I'm going to start looking
33:06lower time frame here to see if that
33:09really results into anything through the
33:10open.
33:15I don't like that deep run that it made,
33:16but it's not necessarily invalid yet.
33:20It's going to come right back for that
33:21intraday low. So we're not really seeing
33:23much of a London reversal at the moment.
33:26Closing back up into the range. Just
33:28going to keep tracking this lower time
33:29frame. This is going to be more about
33:30the open reaction 8:30.
33:33If we do break out through that high,
33:35it's almost here. So there's 9:30.
33:37Again, we're going to keep an eye on
33:38that 15 minute just because I don't want
33:40to get too caught up on a day like this.
33:42Let's see if we print a down close
33:44candle.
33:45Okay.
33:46See if we get a close here.
33:47Failed the closure. So
33:50that would have been something to
33:51entertain because if we zoom back out,
33:52we want to stay rooted in this logic.
33:54Potential London reversal here and
33:56continuation of the previous day. I know
33:58we have that expansion rule that that
33:59stays in the back of my mind. Failing
34:01that closure is not a great look, but
34:03see if we get it on the next one. Let's
34:05see. Yeah, once it does this, like this
34:07is not a fast move. I need really high
34:09confirmation in a day like this because
34:11my framework is and the development here
34:13is not high quality. So once we drop
34:15back off, that's not going to be what I
34:17want to see. So this day I can already
34:19say is not going to be
34:20something I want to trade. Not even
34:22close. Back through. You know,
34:25I'm not going to take a huge stop like
34:26that. Like I just can't take that trade.
34:28Yeah.
34:29So this day for me had limited potential
34:33going into it, but watching this
34:34development failing that closure huge
34:36stop. I just can't I can't do anything
34:38with it. So we're just going to skip
34:39this one go on to the next day.
34:43Now that's not a highly interesting
34:44closure, but we do see how we do almost
34:46cap that continuation and do pause
34:49because of that expansion rule which
34:50does make sense here. I'm going to
34:52really only say the potential for this
34:54day is either going to be running out
34:56previous day low as a relevant low or
34:59trading away from this high based on the
35:01development. Not a high context closure,
35:04but again, I'm just going to take in the
35:06context. I'm going to let Asian London
35:07print fully and then we'll see what that
35:09looks like from there because I don't
35:11have to make a decision right now. This
35:12is not my execution window. So just
35:14allow it to go. Okay, that's a decent
35:17reaction here. So this is the open of
35:19that 8:00 candle. We could align bearish
35:21London reversal. If we get a breakout
35:23especially of that previous day low,
35:25let's just look for a new signature. I
35:27mean that could have even been a
35:28breakout, but let's slow this down
35:31quickly. See if we get an up close
35:33candle.
35:36Not a valid up close candle. It's not
35:38what we're looking for.
35:42Assuming that's 9:30 there and it's
35:45expanding higher. So no breakout
35:47signature. I am curious that 5 minute
35:50that's technically your failure to
35:51manipulate that low, but it's right at
35:548:00 a little bit more aggressive, but
35:55you see the logic there. But this day
35:57itself again, I'd rather let it go
36:00because intraday it's not highly
36:01interesting, but if we keep developing
36:03in a way that like look for for tomorrow
36:06especially.
36:07This is a really nice daily framework.
36:09Failure swing highs looking at the lows
36:11manipulating that. This is what does ES
36:13look like? I mean even better on ES
36:15here. Closure back into the range like
36:17this is a daily framework that we can go
36:19into this pretty one sided just wanting
36:21to see a continuation up into the highs.
36:24So our framework would be the
36:25manipulation of that relevant low, which
36:28is just previous day low, set our
36:30invalidation points, and then just watch
36:32this development across the pairs.
36:36Close that validation. Is that reaction
36:39quick? Sometimes we've got to need a
36:40really quick reaction. We're going to
36:42make a large move away. I don't want to
36:44throw away the framework immediately
36:46unless we make another push lower, then
36:47it's over.
36:50Okay, so I like I like to see that.
36:55New closure. Okay. So, go back to the
36:57profile here. It's a really nice London
36:59reversal that development here so far.
37:01Look how much stronger ES is just off
37:03the comparison. So, we did reach into
37:05that area, but look how fast we
37:06reversed. This is something that I don't
37:08want to throw away this daily framework
37:10that looks really good. So, even with YM
37:14in respect to it. So, let me put some
37:16focus here on What time is it? Oh, it's
37:19already past the open. Look at this
37:20right now. If we compare cuz NQ is so
37:23much weaker, higher lows here, running
37:25out of short-term low. So, we have a
37:27high confluence entry paired with the
37:28open, opposing run, closure back
37:30through. We have this divergence, and
37:32we're trading it. We go back to that
37:34London session, we've formed a low of
37:38London here, New York continuation, and
37:41we are framing that based on the open
37:44reaction, divergence, running out of
37:46short-term low, and now we have a
37:48closure through valid opposing candles,
37:50and this is right around that daily open
37:53right here. So, we think about the wick
37:54of that daily candle. We have plenty of
37:56room to capture. So, I'm going to take a
37:58trade on this. This looks good. Stop is
38:00a little wider than I'd like. It
38:02probably doesn't need to be that
38:03extreme.
38:05We'll do it around here, but we'll put
38:07this trade on. We'll adjust depending on
38:09what this looks like, but I'm pretty
38:10comfortable with this. Take that off,
38:12set the position, and simple target's
38:15going to be here, but we need price to
38:16go through that before we even really do
38:18anything with it. Let's just allow this
38:20to start trading. Technically, could
38:24even pyramid that entry, but I'm not
38:25going to trail my stop just because I
38:28don't want to get too aggressive. We
38:29haven't really broken to any risk-reward
38:31threshold. Now, we've started to get
38:33there. If we get another push,
38:36put a long
38:38here.
38:391.4R.
38:41I would be at a point that with 1.4R, I
38:45can close up risk slightly. It should
38:48not retrace that deep, and if it did,
38:50the trade's going to be over. So, I'm
38:52not throwing this one away,
38:54but okay. We really need to make a
38:57bigger push cuz we're not reaching 2R
38:58yet with that stop range. Now, we're
39:00getting to a point that we are
39:02interested in because entry our stop was
39:05here. Now, we're reaching 2R. And
39:07because of the way it got there, this is
39:09not really very aggressive price action.
39:12I'm going to scale a little bit more
39:13aggressively. I'm going to take 80%
39:15here, and then we can now trail stop
39:18because we've secured and and I'll trail
39:21it to these 15-minute down close candle
39:23lows, and just allow this to keep
39:26playing out. Again, with that scaling
39:28into strength, we kind of remove the
39:30risk. I like that push again. I'm going
39:32to trail my stop one more time. I might
39:34even scale out into the strength. This
39:36is very minimal because we took off 80%,
39:38but still worth it for me.
39:40And that's the close of the day, so I'm
39:41just going to close that out because I
39:43would never hold through that close. So,
39:45I mean, great trade here because you
39:46zoom back out, London reversal, trading
39:49that daily framework, and then managing
39:50it to get to 2R and beyond on the
39:53strongest pair here. YM was so strong
39:55here, but it's like, honestly, how are
39:56you going to get on side with this? It
39:58just breaks away immediately. So, that's
39:59why we default back to ES if YM is very
40:02strong, NQ is going to be the weakest,
40:04so we don't want to deal with NQ. ES
40:05provides a framework, so we just focus
40:07there. But, let's go on to this next day
40:09here. This looks like a really good
40:10daily framework that I do want to try to
40:13position with because we have a
40:14manipulation relevant low, expansion,
40:17breakout of the relevant high with a
40:18deep closure through. So, we're all
40:20ready to go for another continuation
40:22here. NQ framework doesn't look as good,
40:24but that doesn't mean that we can't
40:25trade it intraday. It may be the
40:26intraday strongest pair, but mainly this
40:29is going to be the framework that we
40:30track on ES. So, let's just watch this
40:32profile development. 18 candle low
40:35breaking away. Big break away. Okay, so
40:38let's see. All right, so with that
40:40closure with an 18 reversal profile, we
40:42can set that invalidation point in the
40:45London session. Should not make a deep
40:47retracement here if we're going to
40:48continue higher. Bias is absolutely
40:50bullish to the upside, so I'm going to
40:51look for 15 30 minute signatures here
40:54and just keep tracking it into the open
40:56of the New York session.
40:58Down close candle there. Okay, so
41:00already if we close back through this
41:0215/30 minute down close candles, we're
41:05pretty much at the extreme of this
41:06invalidation point. So, if we close back
41:08through, that's going to be my entry.
41:10Slow it down here. Yeah, so I mean 100%.
41:12Look at this right here. Because this is
41:14at that level where it's at the
41:15invalidation of London session, trading
41:17back through in New York, we should be
41:20seeing that the low of session. If we're
41:21going to expand higher, it has no reason
41:23to go back here and we've closed through
41:2515 minute down close candle. So, this is
41:27going to be my entry. Assuming that we
41:29look good on NQ looks good. Just been
41:32lot stronger, better stop range here. YM
41:35doesn't look as good. So, yeah, we're
41:36going to focus here on ES. So, we're
41:38going to take this long market posing
41:41swing, place order, 1% risk, and allow
41:45this to start playing out.
41:48Not a great opposing run. See if we
41:52probably going to get stopped there.
41:53Yeah, there it is.
41:54That's
41:56unfortunate, but I would take that trade
41:58every single time. Like, I love that
42:00trade. So, yeah, unfortunately that it
42:02runs it out, but like this is the point
42:04where it really shouldn't expand back
42:05higher. Open made its attempt to close.
42:08There'd be no reason for this to trade
42:09higher. Invalidation point. Right, yeah,
42:12like we're breaking down. This is the
42:13thing. We take that entry and it's at
42:16the extreme. There's literally no reason
42:18for price to return back here if we're
42:20going to be bullish. So, we give
42:21ourselves the best chance and our stop
42:23loss is the true invalidation here. Like
42:25we're not going to Yeah, we just keep
42:27breaking down lower. I'm not aligning
42:29with this bearish move. Some people may
42:31like to reverse that, but I like that
42:33position. I'd probably just end the day
42:35there and I'd feel honestly really good
42:37about that entry. I'd take that every
42:39single time. So, I think we're running
42:40out of time here, but I want to get you
42:41guys one more trade example. I'm just
42:43going to look for something really
42:44quality top to bottom that we can mess
42:46with so I don't spend too much time on
42:48these days in here. If this day aligns
42:50bearish, that'd be the only thing I
42:52would look for. That's a deep run into
42:54these daily highs, so no internal
42:56framework to short as a continuation, so
42:58not high quality. I'm trying to get one
43:00that's really clear for you guys to end
43:01this off on. So, let's just go off to
43:03the next day. See how this prints here.
43:06Again, daily likely needing to reach for
43:08the external lows as a place to
43:10manipulate. Otherwise, this can create a
43:12range. Okay, so here we have That's big
43:15from a news event. So, we had some PPI.
43:18This is not going to lead to a very high
43:19quality framework intraday. So, again, I
43:22want to get one that's really clear for
43:23you guys. These are things that you can
43:25trade, but this for the next day should
43:27look really good. Like this is the daily
43:29framework that deep closure here running
43:32out relevant lows, closure through
43:34relevant highs, breakout of the range.
43:36Let's look for a continuation on this
43:37day. This looks really good. In here,
43:39set our invalidation points, and then
43:41look for that alignment of the bullish
43:44profile. Looks like we have CPI at 8:30,
43:47so we're going to have to wait for that
43:48either way. So, let's just get through
43:50CPI and see how that prints in relation
43:52to the profile. We'll just focus here on
43:54one at a time. I just hope it doesn't do
43:56anything crazy. All right, so CPI hits
43:59the market. It is in a way that it's
44:02under bullish framework. If we look off
44:04the session lows, we have a divergence
44:08with the 1:00 8:00 candle. ES runs that
44:11out and price expands higher for CPI.
44:13Now, the question here I don't love to
44:16see that, but the question for me is
44:18really can we seek further continuation
44:20on this day? And the first thing that
44:22I'm going to look at is the ADR because
44:24if we already expanded higher, the
44:25framework suggests we should continue.
44:28Previous continuation days have been
44:31around the 300 range. So, we've done so
44:33far 150 points. We do have room. We have
44:35an opposing target here even. So, I feel
44:37good about looking further, but we still
44:39need to really align a signature as we
44:42watch this 15 minute into the open.
44:44Looking for that pause and then valid
44:46opposing candles that could be closed
44:48back through, especially if we pair that
44:50with the open. It's a bit of a deep run.
44:52I don't love I don't love that. Got to
44:53expand right back up. See if we get this
44:55closure. Fell short here. What time is
44:58it? Open is already supporting it. So,
45:00that's your 9:30 open turning back up.
45:02So, that's your 50 minute closure. Now,
45:04again, this is one of these where the
45:06stop range is a little bit wide, but
45:08there is no reason for price to return
45:10back here. We've started the
45:11continuation of this daily candle. We
45:13have support from the open, targets
45:15above on the daily, and room on the ADR.
45:18So, we can assume we're in this
45:20expansion candle in the continuation of
45:22New York. I'm going to put this on just
45:25because I think I can put my stop not as
45:27wide. We'll put on the candle bodies.
45:29Not as standard, but you can understand
45:31the logic of this development of the
45:33daily candle in the profile. That
45:35framework is so good for the
45:36continuation. I'm going to put this on
45:39and then look for generally a 2R, which
45:42for this stop again, 52 point stop, we
45:46need a 100 point target for 2R. That
45:48makes sense with the ADR around 200
45:50points in the daily range, even a little
45:52bit less. ADR sitting around 300, so we
45:55have 100 points of room. This is a
45:57reasonable type of trade to put on here.
45:59So, let's just allow this to start going
46:01through. See if we can respect that
46:02stop, if we have to adjust it at all, we
46:05should see that quick. That's perfect.
46:07I'm going to trail my stop yet.
46:10Let's keep this simple. Perfect. Like
46:12this is perfect. All right, so we're
46:13going to scale 80% here, very
46:16aggressive. That's our 2R. And then for
46:18the rest of this trade, we can trail it
46:20up to relative new invalidation points,
46:235-minute here, and just see if we get
46:25any extra push on this. Anything extra.
46:27This is all again, this is all just
46:28extra. I can just trail my stop deeper
46:30in this, scale out into strength, save.
46:34So, we can just keep that trailed stop
46:37right there. All we need. I mean, that's
46:39a perfect move. You can see we have the
46:41expansion waiting for the high-impact
46:43news, expanding away, aligning the daily
46:45profile with the daily framework,
46:47continuation signature, and continuation
46:50for the rest of that New York session up
46:51into targets to the left, and up into
46:54the ADR for this current day. Here we
46:56can look through the general stats of
46:58the session. We got through about 3
46:59weeks of price action, and ended up with
47:0210 trades in total, eight wins, two full
47:04losses. And we have these stats around
47:06it with a couple of things that I think
47:08are important to key in on. The first is
47:10that average win is around my 2R, but I
47:13have outlier winning trades that I'm
47:15going to get more into as we move on.
47:17And also, the average duration of my
47:20winning trades, 5 hours and 40 minutes.
47:22The average duration of my losses is 23
47:24minutes. But on the other side, these
47:25winning days, when we hold through
47:27expansion daily candles, there's often
47:30more on the table than you probably
47:31assume going into it. So, really go back
47:33and study that dynamic trade management,
47:35and understand how inside of these days
47:38with longer durations of holding time
47:40and a certain type of management on that
47:42trade, we can pull more from the market
47:45than we probably initially expect. And
47:47in the calendar, we get a picture of the
47:48trade frequency that I have, pretty
47:50normal to get two to four trades within
47:52any given week. But we can see these
47:54outlier winning trades alongside full
47:57losses and partial wins. So, for
47:59example, that first trade that we got
48:01offered a pyramid entry and then a
48:03reposition pyramid entry at the open
48:07where there was far more room left on
48:08that daily candle. And when we do that,
48:10we can add to a position without
48:12increasing the baseline risk. And if we
48:14manage that trade properly, we can take
48:16both of those positions fairly deep in
48:18the daily candle and turn into a day
48:20like this where our risk we never lost
48:22control of it. So, when these are
48:24offered every once in a while, we really
48:26need to understand how to capitalize on
48:28them. But alongside that, we're going to
48:30take trades that we view as high
48:31quality, we take full stop outs. Fine.
48:34There's going to be trades that we
48:35manage and it reduces it because we're
48:37not doing fixed R. We scale it to R, but
48:39maybe it trails us out like on a trade
48:41like this here. Generally, we have that
48:43baseline where trades with dynamic
48:45management push us past the 2 R, that's
48:47what we're looking for, beyond 2 R, some
48:49trades slightly below it, again, scaling
48:51out, but it could trail us out before
48:53expanding further. We have full losses
48:55again, but then we have these outlier
48:58days when we can pyramid an entry. You
48:59see two trades, we took an early entry
49:02and then we took a pyramid on top of
49:04that and we get two trades under the
49:06same idea. We're correct on one idea
49:08inside of that day. We're just building
49:10a position and controlling risk,
49:12managing it properly, and we end up with
49:14days like this. Trade management and
49:15execution is probably the biggest piece
49:18because most people can get the bias
49:19right. Most people can get the
49:20confirmation right, but can you manage a
49:22trade to really pull in days like this
49:25and then control the downside as well.
49:27If you found this video valuable and are
49:28looking for more guidance while being
49:30serious about becoming profitable, we
49:32just recently started accepting new
49:34students to our private mentorship where
49:36we work very closely with our traders on
49:38a defined path. If that is something
49:40that sounds of interest to you, check
49:42the first link in the description and
49:44join the waitlist to see if you're a fit
49:45for the program. Otherwise, that is
49:47everything I have for you in this video
49:49and I will see you in the next one.

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