Watch BEFORE Tuesday November 1 [Mega Catalysts]. — Transcript

Full transcript

1. 0:00Hey everyone, me Kevin here. We are
2. 0:01going to have a big week of catalysts.
3. 0:03Last week we had a really big week of
4. 0:05catalysts as well, considering the fact
5. 0:07that Amazon reported a consumer slowdown
6. 0:10going into Q4. Google Ads reported a
7. 0:12slowdown for advertising demand. We also
8. 0:15saw Google and its Play Store and Apple
9. 0:18on its services like its App Store
10. 0:20recognize a slowdown with consumers
11. 0:22here. GDP showed that the consumer last
12. 0:26week is still relatively resilient in
13. 0:28the face of higher interest rates, but
14. 0:31that the savings rate that we're seeing
15. 0:33from consumers is now below levels that
16. 0:34we've seen pre-pandemic. And so, we've
17. 0:37got a big week of earnings to give us a
18. 0:39lot of insight into how consumers might
19. 0:43be faring going into Q4. But, we'll also
20. 0:46be getting the Federal Reserve and some
21. 0:47other important data. So, let's break
22. 0:50down the week the way we've got to look
23. 0:52at it. The first thing we look at is
24. 0:54October 31st. And for October 31st, we
25. 0:57actually really only have two important
26. 1:01dates. And that is the expiration for
27. 1:04the courses for a quick Halloween coupon
28. 1:06we've done. This pricing will be better
29. 1:08than Black Friday coupon codes. So, you
30. 1:11know, get in before then. And then, of
31. 1:13course, we have a House Hack deadline
32. 1:16for signing your documents. You can wire
33. 1:19by November 4th. November 4th will be
34. 1:21the wire deadline for House Hack, but
35. 1:23get in by October 31st with your
36. 1:25documents at househackr.com.
37. 1:27Okay, there really aren't any market
38. 1:29catalysts on Monday. So, we'll have a
39. 1:31little bit of a relaxing Monday.
40. 1:33November 1 is where things get
41. 1:34interesting. First, we're going to have
42. 1:36the beginning of the FOMC meeting. Now,
43. 1:39the FOMC meeting, the first thing
44. 1:40they're going to be able to discuss,
45. 1:42it's a Federal Open Market Committee
46. 1:43from the Fed, is going to be the JOLTS
47. 1:45report. Now, the JOLTS report is an
48. 1:47interesting one. It's the Job Opening
49. 1:50and Labor Turnover Survey. And the last
50. 1:54JOLTS report, the last one that we got
51. 1:56came in nicely low at 10, which would be
52. 2:0010 million 25,000.
53. 2:03And we're hoping that this number
54. 2:05actually now comes all the way down to
55. 2:07potentially 9.625
56. 2:10or maybe even misses to the downside.
57. 2:13Now, according to Indeed, job openings
58. 2:15have actually been reflecting to the
59. 2:16upside, but a JOLTS survey right now of
60. 2:209.6 is certainly moving in the right
61. 2:22direction. If we get a number that comes
62. 2:24in lower than this, I would expect
63. 2:26prices in in markets, equities to rally.
64. 2:28And if we get a number that comes in
65. 2:30higher than this and we miss uh to the
66. 2:32upside, I would I would expect some red
67. 2:34in markets. Remember, the reason we want
68. 2:36to see this is because the Federal
69. 2:38Reserve wants to see a one-to-one
70. 2:39balance. So, for example, uh if I if I
71. 2:42say we have 6 million people who are
72. 2:45unemployed, uh but we've got 12 million
73. 2:49job openings, that means we have two job
74. 2:50openings for every unemployed person. We
75. 2:52want to see more like 6 million job
76. 2:54openings for 6 million unemployed folks.
77. 2:57And and that's directly from Jerome
78. 2:59Powell at the Federal Reserve, right?
79. 3:00This is This is pretty obvious and
80. 3:02pretty clear. Then, uh we will be
81. 3:04getting some earnings on Tuesday. So,
82. 3:06we'll get to have some earnings fun
83. 3:08together. So, the first one that we're
84. 3:10going to be getting is AMD. I'll tell
85. 3:12you what I'm looking for at AMD is
86. 3:14really simple. I want to know what's
87. 3:15going to happen with that China revenue.
88. 3:17Uh AMD has about 25% of its revenues
89. 3:20coming from China, and after that Joe
90. 3:22Biden chip ban for uh artificial
91. 3:24intelligence style chips and
92. 3:25supercomputing chips, I I do think we've
93. 3:27got some really big risks and
94. 3:29uncertainties here for AMD. Depending on
95. 3:31what they say, it could be a catalyst
96. 3:32towards the upper downside. For Airbnb,
97. 3:35we have a lot of uh sort of a anecdotal
98. 3:39evidence. Uh Airbnb, there we go. Uh
99. 3:41anecdotal evidence that Airbnbs are
100. 3:44slowing down, that bookings are slowing
101. 3:46down. So, I want to see the bookings
102. 3:48trend here. Uh
103. 3:50the last earnings call from Airbnb
104. 3:53didn't suggest a booking slowdown. If
105. 3:56anything, they suggested strength going
106. 3:58into the third quarter. Let's see if
107. 4:00that strength holds up with that core
108. 4:01consumer going into the fourth quarter.
109. 4:04We do have Caesars Entertainment which
110. 4:06which some are going to be looking at
111. 4:07for travel demand. We have SoFi coming
112. 4:10up.
113. 4:11SoFi, I will say I think this is an
114. 4:13interesting one because SoFi has a lot
115. 4:16of staff. And so I really want to see
116. 4:18what their op ex is looking like.
117. 4:20They've got a lot of financial advisors
118. 4:22on staff. They provide ETFs that have
119. 4:25that are index-based that have no cost.
120. 4:28So they're not receiving any revenue
121. 4:30from this. They've got stocks and crypto
122. 4:32brokering, but again, they're receiving
123. 4:34in my guess nominal revenues from this.
124. 4:37I think it's been very difficult to
125. 4:38attract new customers to these sorts of
126. 4:40services unless you're offering a high
127. 4:41yield on interest. For example, if I say
128. 4:44go to medkevin.com/weebull and get up to
129. 4:4612 free stocks with Weebull, I've
130. 4:47actually seen a lower transition of
131. 4:50users over to Weebull. And for me,
132. 4:52that's just a way of myself being able
133. 4:55to have my finger on the pulse of the
134. 4:56market in terms of how excited are
135. 4:58people to get into new brokerages. So I
136. 5:01wouldn't be surprised to see user
137. 5:02growth. So I'll just put UG here, user
138. 5:05growth to slow down at SoFi just because
139. 5:08in in this sort of market it is slightly
140. 5:10difficult to get people into the
141. 5:13brokerage game and getting signed up for
142. 5:15new accounts. We will be getting Uber,
143. 5:17not the biggest fan of Uber mostly
144. 5:19because you're collecting fees off other
145. 5:21people doing the work, right? You've got
146. 5:23the platform and the drivers are doing
147. 5:24the driving, but they're independent.
148. 5:26You've got a lot of risks related to
149. 5:28independent contractor laws. So I think
150. 5:30you've got a lot of
151. 5:31those IRS risks are going to be a big
152. 5:34overhang for Uber. We'll see what
153. 5:35happens here regarding taxation. You've
154. 5:37got Pfizer coming up. Pfizer obviously,
155. 5:42you know, vaccines mRNA vaccines
156. 5:46are or
157. 5:48something that might become more
158. 5:49profitable for them as government
159. 5:50subsidies go away, especially for those
160. 5:52COVID vaccines. So, we'll see some
161. 5:53comment uh commentary on this. Simon
162. 5:56Property Group, any potential lease
163. 5:58negotiations
164. 5:59for uh
165. 6:01you know, tenants who can no longer
166. 6:03afford to
167. 6:06uh to to pay their rent, as well as
168. 6:08traffic updates. You know, Simon
169. 6:09Property Group owns a lot of pretty
170. 6:12incredible malls throughout the country,
171. 6:13including one of my favorites, which is
172. 6:16the Sawgrass Mills Mall in South
173. 6:17Florida. Uh great area as well, Sunrise,
174. 6:20Florida. BP, expecting just record
175. 6:22profits here, but uh really want to see
176. 6:24their expansion into chargers
177. 6:27uh and EVs. See if they're putting any
178. 6:29more money into this space. You might
179. 6:31think that's ironic, but they've got
180. 6:32half as many chargers as Tesla does,
181. 6:35which is really remarkable that they
182. 6:36even have that many. I think it's like
183. 6:3816,000 charging stations. It's really
184. 6:40really incredible. That's then going to
185. 6:41bring us to November 2nd, which is
186. 6:45Wednesday, November 2nd. We have the
187. 6:49FOMC meeting. Really, what we're looking
188. 6:51for from the Federal Reserve is uh any
189. 6:53kind of hint at a slowdown, right? Uh
190. 6:57now, I really don't think, unless we get
191. 6:59like a really killer jobs report, that
192. 7:01we're going to hear of anything. So, I I
193. 7:03I'm not too optimistic in this idea of a
194. 7:06pivot or pause talk. Uh I think we're
195. 7:10going to be looking for hints of maybe
196. 7:1350 in December, which we might get, but
197. 7:16I also think they're going to keep the
198. 7:1750 in December optionality open, because
199. 7:21most of the data comes after this
200. 7:22meeting. So, I think the Fed has a real
201. 7:24risk of talking the market up in
202. 7:27November on the November 2nd meeting,
203. 7:29which in my opinion means I think we're
204. 7:31going to see a rougher Jerome Powell,
205. 7:33because he needs to keep the market
206. 7:34down. Because if, for example, Treasury
207. 7:36yields fall and the stocks rise, you
208. 7:39actually loosen financial conditions,
209. 7:41which just leads to more spending, and
210. 7:43that's not what the Federal Reserve
211. 7:45wants. They want to keep yields high at
212. 7:47the Treasuries at Treasuries level. They
213. 7:49want to keep mortgage rates high. They
214. 7:51want to keep the stock market down.
215. 7:53That's how they keep financial
216. 7:54conditions tight to get rid of
217. 7:55inflation. I really don't think it would
218. 7:58be wise for them to
219. 8:00really imply pivot or pause. I think
220. 8:03they want to just reiterate data
221. 8:04dependent. We haven't seen it yet, and
222. 8:07we might see some red because of that,
223. 8:09but hopefully that unlocks them to be a
224. 8:11little bit chiller in December. But I I
225. 8:13don't think this is their meeting for
226. 8:15for really giving us any kind of
227. 8:17excitement. I think it would be a
228. 8:18mistake for them to do so.
229. 8:20You're going to see EXP report. This is
230. 8:23the real estate agent company.
231. 8:25Look, I I'm not not at all enthusiastic
232. 8:29about this. I think transaction, we know
233. 8:31transactions are down 30%. They make
234. 8:34money by taking a certain portion of
235. 8:37real estate agents commissions. I think
236. 8:39they're a great company to hang your
237. 8:40license with if you are
238. 8:42a real estate agent who already has
239. 8:44experience. In fact, you can go to
240. 8:45metkevin.com/exp
241. 8:48and sign up for EXP Realty, okay? And
242. 8:52they'll give me a thank you for you
243. 8:53doing that. Lauren has her license hung
244. 8:56with EXP. But let me be clear, if
245. 8:58transactions go down, revenues for EXP,
246. 9:02I think, are going to go down. Now, that
247. 9:04might already be priced in, but we'll
248. 9:06see what happens. We're going to get
249. 9:07Vista Outdoors. How are those bullet
250. 9:10sales basically coming up on an election
251. 9:12going to be doing? Fisker is going to be
252. 9:14reporting.
253. 9:16I'm not sure if that's actually Fisker's
254. 9:17ticker symbol, but whatever. Fisker is
255. 9:19going to be reporting. You've got a
256. 9:21Zillow, the Zillow Group reporting. This
257. 9:24one I really think is going to be sad
258. 9:27because when real estate transactions
259. 9:30are down, real estate agents start
260. 9:32getting nervous, and you might think,
261. 9:34"Oh, they're advertising more to get
262. 9:36more business." But when it becomes hard
263. 9:38to advertise is when the market's hard.
264. 9:40And so you actually tend to advertise
265. 9:41less, even though advertising less
266. 9:44probably means more business for you as
267. 9:45an agent. It's just a time people tend
268. 9:47to like uh hold on to the cash they
269. 9:49have, and that's bad for Zillow's main
270. 9:51source of income, which is not flipping
271. 9:53houses anymore since they killed that
272. 9:54unprofitable business. Anybody could
273. 9:56have told them that was going to be an
274. 9:57unprofitable business. But, from real
275. 9:59estate agents, uh
276. 10:01probably not going to see such great
277. 10:02spending here. So, I'm not optimistic
278. 10:03about that one. Robinhood might actually
279. 10:06surprise decently to the upside with
280. 10:09their 3% uh interest on gold deposits.
281. 10:13In fact, uh well, Robinhood gold
282. 10:15deposits. That's not actual gold
283. 10:17deposits. But, if you go to
284. 10:18metkevin.com/robinhood,
285. 10:20you can sign up and get the 3%
286. 10:23uh on your cash deposits at Robinhood,
287. 10:26which is kind of cool. I mean, on cash,
288. 10:28stuff that you have money readily
289. 10:30available for or liquidity with, I I
290. 10:33think that's actually an incredible
291. 10:34offer. I'm considering putting a bunch
292. 10:35of money over here into Robinhood as
293. 10:37well, so I don't have to deal with
294. 10:38moving treasuries around, and I got a
295. 10:39little bit quicker uh and more flexible
296. 10:41liquidity. It's It's much better than
297. 10:43sitting in a bank over here. We're going
298. 10:45to have Etsy. Etsy, such a great great
299. 10:48company, but I hate to say it. Uh
300. 10:51sellers on here do not have a lot of PP
301. 10:54pricing power. Not seeing a lot of PP by
302. 10:56sellers in Etsy. I don't think that'll
303. 10:58change this in this next earnings
304. 11:00report, but we'll see. Same thing I
305. 11:01would expect to be true over at uh eBay.
306. 11:05And then we'll get Qualcomm. We'll see
307. 11:07how they're doing without uh Apple as as
308. 11:10much of a client. Roku, I think this
309. 11:13one's just set up for a disaster. I'm
310. 11:15not the biggest fan of Roku getting into
311. 11:17the TV business. In other words, we know
312. 11:20that they're software for TV, but
313. 11:22they're actually getting into building
314. 11:23their own TVs. And I think the CapEx
315. 11:25spending on getting into that is going
316. 11:27to be disastrous. Not optimistic here at
317. 11:29all. Uh if I had to pick something I was
318. 11:31most optimistic on, I hate to say it,
319. 11:33but probably Robinhood. Uh, you know,
320. 11:36otherwise I'm just not very, very
321. 11:37optimistic about any of these.
322. 11:39Now, on November 3rd and 4th, I do get
323. 11:41to some things that I think I could be a
324. 11:43little bit more optimistic about. So,
325. 11:45let's go ahead and draw over here.
326. 11:47November 3rd, what do we got for
327. 11:49November 3rd? Well, we've got American
328. 11:51Homes 4 Rent. I'd like to see them
329. 11:53actually uh reduce their purchases
330. 11:56because this is a competitor to House
331. 11:58Hack. We will actually have Carvana
332. 12:01reporting. Uh, Carvana, Shift, the used
333. 12:04car space. Look, we knew for over a year
334. 12:08to get out of these. I've talked about
335. 12:09it in many videos. You don't want to be
336. 12:12in a used car seller when there's a used
337. 12:14car shortage. So, as long as there's
338. 12:15been a used car shortage, I've been not
339. 12:17interested in these stocks because these
340. 12:19stocks make money off of volume. It's
341. 12:21kind of like eXp real estate. Volume
342. 12:23goes down, your fees go down. Volume
343. 12:26going down bad. So, uh you know, now
344. 12:29we're starting to see used car prices
345. 12:30fall and still have shortages. I mean,
346. 12:32it's just a double whammy. Not very
347. 12:34excited here. Cloudflare, though, uh
348. 12:37also known as ticker symbol NET,
349. 12:39optimistic here. I I personally am
350. 12:41excited about this one. This is one that
351. 12:43I would be paying attention to.
352. 12:45Coinbase, no. Uh not very excited here.
353. 12:48Although, there's been some Dogecoin
354. 12:50spiking here lately with Twitter taken
355. 12:52over uh or being taken over by Elon
356. 12:54Musk. Not very excited about how many
357. 12:56transactions we would expect from
358. 12:57Coinbase. It's really going to take a
359. 12:59rally in the crypto market to see people
360. 13:00move back over here. Corsair, uh one of
361. 13:03the problems with Corsair, I don't
362. 13:05remember exactly what their what their
363. 13:06ticker is. CSR, uh something like this.
364. 13:09Corsair, uh peripherals for PCs. Look,
365. 13:12we're down 19% in the PC market. There's
366. 13:14not a lot of reason to be optimistic
367. 13:16here. But, will we see a potential
368. 13:18consumer inflection point and could that
369. 13:20be a lead-in for some of the other PC
370. 13:22manufacturers? Maybe, we'll see.
371. 13:24Dropbox, are they actually going to be
372. 13:26able to increase their share of pie? So,
373. 13:29I want to see how much of
374. 13:32sort of the percent of TAM they've been
375. 13:34able to grow. I haven't been the most
376. 13:36optimistic about this company, but we'll
377. 13:38see. EXP look Sorry, this is not EXP.
378. 13:41This is actually Expedia, I should say.
379. 13:44Expedia, which means actually that is
380. 13:46EXPI. There we go.
381. 13:48Expedia travel, I don't recommend them
382. 13:51for booking, but they kill it with
383. 13:54revenues. A lot of people use them and I
384. 13:57have to say travel has been absolutely
385. 13:59booming. So, I think their historical
386. 14:02returns here or their historical
387. 14:03revenues looking back should be pretty
388. 14:05dang strong, but their forecast is going
389. 14:07to be everything. So, I'm going to write
390. 14:09down forecast on that one. How is that
391. 14:12travel demand holding up? So far, the
392. 14:13airlines are telling us pretty dang
393. 14:15well. GoDaddy is an interesting one just
394. 14:17to watch how entrepreneurs are doing in
395. 14:19terms of starting businesses. We are
396. 14:21going to have Hyatt. Hyatt's an
397. 14:23interesting one on November 3rd because
398. 14:25it tells me a little bit about business
399. 14:27travel or sort of a high-end level of
400. 14:29travel. Is that high-end starting to
401. 14:31slow down? We haven't really seen a
402. 14:33high-end slow down yet. You've got MP
403. 14:36Materials reporting. How are we doing on
404. 14:38those rare earth metals for electric
405. 14:40vehicle motors? Any increase in in in
406. 14:44sort of how many of these were able to
407. 14:46or or how many units of sort of rare
408. 14:48earth materials were able to manufacture
409. 14:50or refine and then how are our
410. 14:52partnership deals going? How about
411. 14:53expansion deals? They're located in
412. 14:55California. I think they're a great
413. 14:56company run by a great CEO.
414. 14:58OpenDoor, honestly,
415. 15:00like if I I'm happy about MP, but
416. 15:02OpenDoor is is just terrible. I think
417. 15:04they deserve to go bankrupt. I am
418. 15:06excited to see those financials because
419. 15:08I want to read the red flags. Peloton is
420. 15:11is having a complete disaster. There's a
421. 15:13reason I sold Peloton at $113 and
422. 15:15advocated for doing so on on YouTube in
423. 15:18live streams and videos and course
424. 15:20member live streams. Everything was
425. 15:22saying this phase is over. And I was
426. 15:24recently reading some consumer spending
427. 15:26reports, and I'll tell you, fitness is
428. 15:28like the lowest right now. It's just not
429. 15:31an exciting space to be in. But you
430. 15:33really got to see how is that new CEO
431. 15:36trying to turn around the reputation for
432. 15:38that company? So I think that's a big
433. 15:39deal. PayPal's been having some recent
434. 15:42drama. They're going to be reporting in
435. 15:43terms of $2,500 fees for potential
436. 15:46misinformation commentary. Woo, I want
437. 15:49to see if they end up getting any kind
438. 15:50of hits to user growth on that front.
439. 15:53Under Armor is a company that generally
440. 15:55has had a lot of pricing power. How is
441. 15:58their PP holding up? Are they having to
442. 16:00go into discounting the way Nike has
443. 16:02been going into discounting? Judging by
444. 16:05services sort of declining, I would
445. 16:07expect that Twilio is probably going to
446. 16:09be a sad face. And I hate to say it, but
447. 16:13investment into home furniture via
448. 16:16companies like Wayfair, probably not
449. 16:19expecting an inflection point here
450. 16:21anytime soon. November 4th, November 4th
451. 16:24is your wire deadline for House Hack.
452. 16:29Not only is it your wire deadline for
453. 16:31House Hack to get your October options,
454. 16:33but it's when we expect the unemployment
455. 16:35rate to come in at 3.6%
456. 16:38average hourly earnings to be up 0.3%.
457. 16:41That would be about also 3.6%
458. 16:44on the year-over-year average hourly
459. 16:45earnings expected be 4.7%
460. 16:48and participation up to 62.4%.
461. 16:53If we have an unemployment rate here
462. 16:56that comes in higher than expected, it
463. 16:58would actually encourage stocks. And we
464. 16:59want this number here, that
465. 17:01month-over-month inflation rate to come
466. 17:02in lower than expected. This is going to
467. 17:04be very, very important. All right,
468. 17:06folks. There you have it. If you found
469. 17:07this video helpful, consider sharing it.
470. 17:09Thank you so much for watching, and
471. 17:10we'll see you in the next one.