Watch BEFORE Friday 5:30am Jobs Report! — Transcript

Full transcript

1. 0:00oh man Apple joins The Fray as well no
2. 0:04more hiring at Apple outside of r d oh
3. 0:07and what are the numbers that we need to
4. 0:09know before tomorrow morning and what is
5. 0:11all the madness going on it's gonna be
6. 0:13what you find out in this video well
7. 0:15just a day after Jerome Powell tells us
8. 0:17that we need to see job openings come
9. 0:20down we have a whole host of new layoffs
10. 0:24and this begs the question is this the
11. 0:27beginning of the end that is the
12. 0:30beginning of the end of the stock market
13. 0:31pain because maybe we'll finally see the
14. 0:33jobs Market Back in Balance or is this
15. 0:36the beginning of the beginning that is
16. 0:38the beginning of the real crash is the
17. 0:41economy just so strong that now the
18. 0:44Atlanta fed GDP tracker is suggesting
19. 0:47GDP has moved up from 2.6 percent to an
20. 0:50annualized rate of 3.6 as of just an
21. 0:53hour ago meaning that the fed's work is
22. 0:56truly just beginning well folks let's
23. 0:59talk because there's a lot going on and
24. 1:02in this video we'll also talk about what
25. 1:05recommendations there might be to help
26. 1:07you get through some of the madness
27. 1:09Amazon has announced pausing hiring of
28. 1:11corporate workers Open Door or slashing
29. 1:1418 percent of its Workforce as its home
30. 1:16flipping business is home faltering Lyft
31. 1:20is laying off 13 of its corporate
32. 1:23Workforce stripe the fintech darling
33. 1:26that almost went public but didn't is
34. 1:29looking to lay off 14 of its Workforce
35. 1:32As It prepares for leaner times keep in
36. 1:34mind all of these announcements just in
37. 1:35the last 24 hours Twitter thanks to Elon
38. 1:38Musk expected to lay off 50 of its
39. 1:41Workforce Goldman Sachs expecting new
40. 1:44layoffs chime a digital Banking Company
41. 1:47expecting a new round of layoffs Galaxy
42. 1:50digital 20 layoffs Intel as and this
43. 1:54one's older the other ones have all been
44. 1:55within the last 24 hours but Intel told
45. 1:57us in their earnings report that they
46. 1:58were planning on saving three billion
47. 2:00dollars potentially cutting as many as
48. 2:0224 000 jobs if you just sort of divide
49. 2:04three billion by what you would expect
50. 2:06wages to be they have 121 000 employees
51. 2:09so this makes sense Seagate digital the
52. 2:12uh hardware company for like storage
53. 2:15drives they're high uh firing 3 000
54. 2:19people upstart is getting rid of 140
55. 2:22hourly employees Airbnb is doing well
56. 2:25but talks about how they have a Navy
57. 2:27SEAL style group of employees and
58. 2:31they're working their employees harder
59. 2:32basically it was what they're saying and
60. 2:35the creator of NBA Top Shot just
61. 2:38announced laying off 22 percent of its
62. 2:41Workforce along Robin Hood also looking
63. 2:43at rapid cost reductions while at the
64. 2:46same time as all these layoffs are
65. 2:48happening you still have employees who
66. 2:50have a hard time making and me ends meet
67. 2:53like employees over at Disney world
68. 2:55supposedly the happiest place on Earth
69. 2:57but unions are fighting to get just 18
70. 3:00bucks an hour or about thirty seven
71. 3:02thousand dollars a year in pay with a
72. 3:04full-time job
73. 3:06all of this happening at the same time
74. 3:09as now we're starting to enter what
75. 3:11could end up being called the season of
76. 3:14discounting Aldi and Walmart are now
77. 3:17announcing Thanksgiving price rewinds so
78. 3:21that way society believes the pricing
79. 3:23they're offering is back to 2019 pricing
80. 3:27yeah apparently inflation has been so
81. 3:30bad that if we just compare to 2019 it
82. 3:34actually sounds like a good deal
83. 3:36we have a jobs report coming out at 5 30
84. 3:39a.m California time tomorrow morning I
85. 3:41expect to be covering that live and we
86. 3:43have break evens finally plummeting
87. 3:45thanks to Jerome Powell's insane
88. 3:48hawkishness last night break evens uh
89. 3:51final well I guess I shouldn't say
90. 3:52plummeting but they're moving back down
91. 3:54in Direction which is good in fact if
92. 3:56you look on screen here you can see
93. 3:58break evens finally ticking down after
94. 4:00yesterday's disaster meeting which is
95. 4:04actually a good sign for inflation
96. 4:07expectations at the market level to be
97. 4:09rotating back down it reiterates the
98. 4:12seriousness of the federal reserve's
99. 4:14work and usually Break Even inflation
100. 4:16rates forecast what inflation is going
101. 4:19to do about three to four months out so
102. 4:22we're at that three to four months out
103. 4:24now where we should be seeing about that
104. 4:27June drop in inflation break evens show
105. 4:30up in the CPI report coming out next
106. 4:31week that would be wonderful and would
107. 4:34be quite bullish for markets but we
108. 4:37don't want to talk hopium we want to
109. 4:39talk reality and the reality is
110. 4:42all of these layoffs are absolutely
111. 4:43wonderful the more of these layoffs we
112. 4:46see the more of these people either go
113. 4:48on unemployment but probably you don't
114. 4:50want to have big gaps in your employment
115. 4:51because if you do get laid off you
116. 4:53should get a job as quickly as possible
117. 4:55not try to Coast on unemployment but get
118. 4:58a job as quickly as possible so that way
119. 4:59when you try to go qualify to buy a home
120. 5:02in one or two years when the housing
121. 5:03market gets to a lower level you don't
122. 5:05have a big gap in your employment so if
123. 5:07you get laid off go get another job and
124. 5:09most people will probably get another
125. 5:11job if we get millions of people who get
126. 5:14laid off but then pick up a new job
127. 5:16thanks to all these job openings we
128. 5:18could finally see the job market come
129. 5:20back to balance but before we get into
130. 5:21the next part I want to thank today's
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168. 6:41are we expecting at 5 5 30 tomorrow and
169. 6:43then what should you do about it well 5
170. 6:4630 tomorrow we're expecting a 195
171. 6:50000 non-farm payroll jobs that estimate
172. 6:52has actually been revised down
173. 6:54unemployment rate to move up one tenth
174. 6:57of a percent to 3.6 averagely average
175. 7:00hourly earnings excuse me point three
176. 7:02percent stable year-over-year inflation
177. 7:04for wages 4.7 percent and we're
178. 7:06expecting labor force participation at
179. 7:08sixty two three if we get any kind of
180. 7:11number basically with the change in
181. 7:13on-farm payrolls above like 225. people
182. 7:17are gonna be nervous now we're hearing
183. 7:18about all these layoffs and
184. 7:20unfortunately this government data is
185. 7:21just so freaking slow it's frustrating
186. 7:23because we know inflation now is
187. 7:27trending down we know jobs are trending
188. 7:30down but
189. 7:31it takes a time for it to show up in the
190. 7:34data I hope we get some glimmer of hope
191. 7:36tomorrow and if we could just get a
192. 7:37bullish number like 80 000 jobs created
193. 7:40and then all of a sudden it's like oh
194. 7:42the economy is softening oh and then the
195. 7:45next three reports be like that oh man
196. 7:46we're going to the Moon
197. 7:48and layoffs help us get to the moon what
198. 7:51are we seeing the fact of the matter is
199. 7:53if right now today you open up a private
200. 7:57browser and you just type in cnbc.com
201. 7:59look at the headlines Amazon pauses
202. 8:03hiring stripe lays off Lyft Cuts 13 of a
203. 8:06Workforce NBA Top Shop maker right like
204. 8:09everything is about Job Cuts today and
205. 8:13it's a good thing this is literally what
206. 8:15you want if you are bullish about the
207. 8:17future of America and it sounds crazy
208. 8:20because it's like how could you say that
209. 8:21in one sentence like oh let's be bullish
210. 8:23on America but let's see people lose
211. 8:24their jobs they just gotta go find
212. 8:25something else that's the way it works
213. 8:28but those job losses are exactly what we
214. 8:31need so we could finally get weaker job
215. 8:33reports and we can finally start seeing
216. 8:36a reduction of the risk that a wage
217. 8:39price spiral forms which ends up meaning
218. 8:41that we have to get Paul volckert where
219. 8:43Jerome Powell raises interest rates not
220. 8:46from four percent to five percent but
221. 8:48from five percent to ten percent that's
222. 8:50when we go into a really depressing
223. 8:52depression so these layoffs are exactly
224. 8:55what we want to see in layoffs usually
225. 8:58lag a recession that is you get layoffs
226. 9:02and the unemployment rate tends to go up
227. 9:04with a lag in a recession these are
228. 9:07probably the lags that Jerome Powell is
229. 9:09expecting to see and this is a good
230. 9:12thing now it's good for markets again
231. 9:14it's bad when people lose their jobs but
232. 9:17my recommendations for everyone whether
233. 9:19you're somebody who might get laid off
234. 9:21or you're somebody who has a stable job
235. 9:24or the following make sure you do
236. 9:27whatever you can to quickly transition
237. 9:29to a place of employment security
238. 9:31because I believe there's a high
239. 9:33likelihood
240. 9:34we could see the unemployment rate rise
241. 9:37to a level where when a lot of people
242. 9:39get laid off and take the job openings
243. 9:41when the next round of layoffs come it's
244. 9:43going to be even harder to get that job
245. 9:44and soon we're going to be moving into a
246. 9:46market where it's harder and harder
247. 9:47harder to actually find a job whereas
248. 9:50right now there are plenty of jobs so
249. 9:52the best thing that could happen to you
250. 9:53is you get laid off now while it's still
251. 9:56easy to find a job but that will flip in
252. 9:59time and when that flips and reports
253. 10:01start realizing that is like the jobs
254. 10:02reports and CPI reports start realizing
255. 10:05oh okay the fed's work has successfully
256. 10:08slowed down the economy now inflation
257. 10:10can move down which tends to be the most
258. 10:13lagged result is inflation going down
259. 10:15then we can go back to being bullish
260. 10:17about markets but as an individual this
261. 10:20is the time to save money to build cash
262. 10:22to stay at a margin to build security
263. 10:24you have to make sure you feel really
264. 10:26comfortable in the job you have right
265. 10:28now because you would rather leave now
266. 10:30than leave when times are really tough
267. 10:32and then it's hard for you to get
268. 10:33another job that would be the worst case
269. 10:35scenario right so you'd rather
270. 10:37transition now or make sure you're
271. 10:39secure at your job now if you want to
272. 10:41make sure you're secure at your job now
273. 10:43ask her a little bit of a pay bump you
274. 10:45know assuming you've been at your job
275. 10:46for a few years right you don't want
276. 10:48your first year to start making demands
277. 10:50or whatever but assuming you've been at
278. 10:51your job for a few years already maybe
279. 10:53now is the time to ask for a little bit
280. 10:54of a bump and usually when you ask for a
281. 10:56little bit of a bump even if you get a
282. 10:58no you'll get some kind of indication on
283. 11:00how much the company values you based on
284. 11:02what they tell you for your expectations
285. 11:05of when you could expect a pay bump
286. 11:07right so you want to see how valued you
287. 11:10are and that can help you determine okay
288. 11:12how safe should I feel here right so
289. 11:13save money check your safety also build
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301. 11:43Corps you name it we talk about
302. 11:44everything it's gonna be really really
303. 11:45incredible comes out later this month
304. 11:47but but really the message I'm sending
305. 11:49to you is not like a sales pitch because
306. 11:50it's not available for sale yet but it's
307. 11:52a message of like Get Ready for doing
308. 11:55those sorts of things in your own life
309. 11:57so staying out of margin but also
310. 11:59building up your security building more
311. 12:01income that side hustle income so that
312. 12:02way you could be prepared pay a little
313. 12:04bit more in taxes now so you could
314. 12:06qualify for more real estate next year
315. 12:08that's what you want to do that should
316. 12:11be your focus
317. 12:12qualifying for Real Estate getting into
318. 12:15real estate and really maximizing your
319. 12:17opportunity to invest not only in
320. 12:19yourself but also during a recession
321. 12:21even if that means taking a slow time
322. 12:23like the holiday season to get some
323. 12:25licenses to increase your actual value
324. 12:27as an individual as a human as an
325. 12:31employee as a as an entrepreneur those
326. 12:33are important things to pay attention to
327. 12:35so me my big summary out of all of this
328. 12:38is all of these layoffs that we're
329. 12:39seeing in my opinion first of all
330. 12:41they're all late these layoffs should
331. 12:43have come like six months ago but that's
332. 12:45okay better late than never I think
333. 12:47though we're going to see more of this
334. 12:49this holiday season might be a little
335. 12:50bit of a disappointer for a lot of these
336. 12:52companies and the fact that we're
337. 12:53starting to see Aldi and Walmart talk
338. 12:54about rollbacks to 2019 prices is
339. 12:57disinflationary and is probably going to
340. 12:59lead to lower revenues which will
341. 13:00probably lead to even more layoffs and
342. 13:02I'll tell you when the layoffs are
343. 13:03probably going to be pretty nasty
344. 13:04probably going to be q1 right after the
345. 13:07busy holiday season for a lot of
346. 13:09retailers and merchandisers where they
347. 13:11get their big sales in and then they cut
348. 13:14big in January yikes red flag for you as
349. 13:18a worker if you're at one of these
350. 13:19companies big green flag if you're
351. 13:21looking to invest in companies that are
352. 13:23refining becoming more efficient and
353. 13:25you're looking for a reason to believe
354. 13:27that the jobs Market will soften such
355. 13:30that the FED can finally take the foot
356. 13:32off the brakes that they've slammed on
357. 13:34so to speak anyway my thoughts on all
358. 13:36this madness thank you so much for
359. 13:37watching check out our sponsor link down
360. 13:39below and we'll see you soon in the next
361. 13:40one thanks good luck bye