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Warum Putin nicht aufhören wird — Transcript

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0:00How much longer can Ukraine hold out? It
0:02is soon to be the fifth winter of their
0:04defensive fight against Russia.
0:06The answer to that question also depends
0:08on how much longer Vladimir Putin can
0:10continue this war.
0:12Or will someone force him to seriously
0:15consider peace now? I spoke about this
0:18with Markus Keupp, a military economist
0:20and lecturer at ETH Zurich.
0:23Mr. Keupp, it is quite staggering how
0:25openly we have seen Donald Trump side
0:27with Russia over the past few weeks.
0:30He is easing existing sanctions against
0:32Moscow. He has decided he wants to
0:34import Russian diesel to the US, and he
0:36is now in very open conflict with
0:38President Zelenskyy’s Ukraine. How
0:41surprising is all of this to you?
0:44>> Not very.
0:45Um, we actually saw this pattern in 2025
0:48, where Trump suddenly makes these, uh,
0:52these U-turns and seemingly teams up
0:54with Putin.
0:56One simply has to understand that
0:58Trump’s personal interests, especially
1:00those regarding his own self-enrichment
1:02, are not necessarily identical to those
1:04of the US.
1:06And that is actually the big problem—
1:08that Trump is acting out of
1:09self-interest and his own delusion and
1:12intellectual ignorance, which plays into
1:14Putin’s hands, but is not in the
1:16slightest in the US's military or
1:18geopolitical interest. So it really is a
1:20person-related problem, and I think that
1:23will be corrected very strongly after
1:25the midterms.
1:26>> Um, Trump actually needs a success in
1:28the midterms.
1:30Some observers think that is why he is
1:32trying this—to see if fuel prices drop
1:34so he can claim a short-term win.
1:36Do you see it that way too?
1:39>> Well, I do think that in his mind,
1:41something like that could work. Um, but
1:43unfortunately, he is showing that he
1:45simply doesn't understand how price
1:47formation in the oil market or the
1:49markets for oil products works. So I
1:51think he just hoped that the sentiment
1:54would shift. Yes, and that the world
1:56would now think, oh, uh, the US is
1:57getting diesel from Russia. Incredible.
1:59Yes, well, the greatest irony of it all
2:01is that the US is actually a diesel
2:03exporter itself. Yes, the last thing the
2:05US needs for its economy is diesel from
2:07Russia. So, these are all just small PR
2:09maneuvers, I think, with which he is
2:11trying, uh, to score a few points
2:13shortly before the midterms.
2:16And Putin, as a shrewd Chekist, uh, can
2:18naturally exploit that very well for his
2:21own agenda, but that won't bring
2:23anything to the USA as a state, um, nor
2:26to Ukraine.
2:27And I just think that with his reckless
2:29nature, um, he will damage himself far
2:31more than he realizes, because the
2:33American people will not forgive you if
2:36you have an affordability crisis and if
2:38you have high inflation, high fuel
2:40prices, and you as president just stand
2:42there and do nothing about it, or even
2:44give the impression that you are
2:46collaborating with the country's enemies
2:48.
2:48>> We will know more on the 4th. November,
2:50when the midterm results slowly come in
2:52. I took another look at this diesel
2:54deal again today.
2:56The price of diesel in the USA has
2:58actually risen slightly since the
2:59announcement that Trump wants to import
3:01from Russia, by about four cents, uh,
3:03per liter.
3:05But there are still critics in Europe
3:06who fear that one consequence of all
3:08this will be that Putin emerges from
3:10this matter economically strengthened,
3:12even if it doesn't have the desired
3:14effect from Trump's perspective in the
3:16USA.
3:16Mm.
3:18>> I don't see it that way, and you can
3:20easily realize that for yourself if you
3:21look at the quantities, and what kind of
3:23peanuts we are actually talking about
3:24here. Yes, so the USA consumes about
3:28600,000 tons of diesel per day. I will
3:31repeat the number again: 600,000 tons.
3:34Putin promised him 300,000 tons in total
3:37, so that's half a day's worth.
3:40And these 300,000 tons are coming on
3:42seven ships that are currently departing
3:44.
3:45They will arrive, uh, on approximately
3:46the 7th. November in the USA. Four of
3:49these ships are sanctioned. That means,
3:52therefore, that American companies or
3:53ports shouldn't actually be accepting
3:55this diesel at all. That's the first
3:57point.
3:58Now there is, for example, Senator
4:00Blumenthal, co-author of the, um, of the
4:02Grain-Blumenthal Act, which wants to
4:04enforce actions against the Russian oil
4:06industry and is currently temporarily
4:08suspended, who says that if this oil
4:10arrives, the Port Authority of New York
4:12should actually seize the ship
4:14immediately for violating sanctions.
4:17Yes, so there we see this pattern that
4:19we have already seen frequently.
4:21In PR, yes, in the, in the press, in the
4:23, in the media impact, it gets overhyped
4:25and it works exactly according to
4:27Russian calculation.
4:29Everyone writes about it, everyone says
4:31: "Oh dear, Ukraine is falling, Russia
4:33is being strengthened."
4:34But the more you look, the more you
4:36examine the facts, the more these small
4:38deals crumble until, in the end, nothing
4:41of them remains. And we've seen this
4:43pattern several times now in '25, even
4:44already this year. Yes, well, a big fuss
4:47is made about it, but in the end,
4:49nothing comes of it. And what about the
4:51negotiations running in parallel to that
4:53?
4:54The US and Moscow are also in contact
4:56regarding the lifting of other sanctions
4:59packages, for example.
5:01Isn't there a risk that a greater effect
5:03might eventually occur?
5:05>> No, I don't see it that way, because
5:07these aren't negotiations, but Russian
5:08influence operations.
5:10It's not about negotiating any kind of
5:12peace deal, or at least not what Russia
5:14understands by peace.
5:16In other words, enforcing the
5:18dismantling of Ukraine or its status as
5:20a satellite state, a Russian satellite
5:22state.
5:23It's about something completely
5:24different. It's also about Trump's
5:25personal enrichment here.
5:28If you look at these two diplomat-actors
5:30, Witkoff and Kushner, who are neither
5:32trained diplomats nor have any knowledge
5:35about Russia or Eastern Europe, they're
5:37simply trying to push through deals,
5:39essentially from private interest to
5:42private interest, right?
5:45So businessman Trump is negotiating with
5:47businessman Putin with the goal that
5:49both enrich themselves.
5:52But this has nothing to do with peace or
5:54a post-war order.
5:56And Putin is doing this very
5:58deliberately because he knows this lever
6:00of self-enrichment is how he can reach
6:02Trump, right?
6:04And that's why it's portrayed that way
6:06by Russian state propaganda—as if these
6:09were peace negotiations—but in principle
6:11, these are two very corrupt businessmen
6:13negotiating opportunities for
6:15self-enrichment.
6:18>> I want to discuss which paths exist for
6:19actual peace negotiations with you, but
6:21a quick question first about the state
6:23of the Russian economy, because it
6:25depends on which expert you talk to.
6:27You arrive at different assessments
6:29there. There are some who say these 21
6:31sanctions packages from the European
6:33Union against Moscow have only had a
6:35limited effect so far. Putin can just
6:38carry on as before.
6:40And then there are others who say it's
6:42starting to get tight, also because
6:43Ukraine is specifically targeting oil
6:45refineries and having success with it.
6:48How is Russia's economy doing?
6:50>> Mhm.
6:51The narrative that the sanctions
6:53allegedly aren't working is something
6:54you hear primarily from the right-wing
6:56populist corner, and above all from
6:58those who have an interest in resuming
6:59business with Russia, those who want the
7:01pre-war status back.
7:02So, the pre-war status is not coming
7:05back.
7:06If you look at how the Russian economy
7:08has changed, um, not just due to the
7:09sanctions but generally because of the
7:11war, we are actually seeing the total
7:13decay of an economy that was at least an
7:15emerging economy and relatively well
7:16integrated into the Western economy in
7:18terms of its foreign trade, turning into
7:20essentially a Chinese satellite.
7:23You can look at whatever you want:
7:25consumer goods, cars, or equipment
7:27investments for industry.
7:29Everything now comes either directly
7:31from China or is imported via China,
7:33thus circumventing the sanctions.
7:36And I always ask, if the sanctions
7:38supposedly don't work, why is Putin
7:40pushing so persistently to have them
7:42lifted?
7:44So why is the lifting of sanctions
7:45always part of the so-called
7:47negotiations if Russia is supposedly
7:49able to just carry on as normal, right?
7:51That would be the first point.
7:52The second is that Russia has, of course
7:54, completely transformed into a war
7:56economy by now.
7:57This means that it is an economy in
7:59which normal economic indicators, such
8:01as GDP or inflation rates, firstly have
8:03no meaning anymore, and secondly, the
8:05data is, of course, either completely
8:07suppressed or at least falsified by the
8:09Russian state. Yes, that is a culture
8:11you already know from the Soviet Union,
8:13which naturally also exists in modern
8:15Russia.
8:16And so one must not make the mistake of
8:19using the published data that Russia
8:23puts out as, um, as real indicators.
8:27What is actually happening in this
8:29economy is that they are increasingly
8:31living off their reserves.
8:34Yes, this means that Russia is basically
8:36depleting the reserves it accumulated in
8:38the past to finance this war economy.
8:40But one must clearly say, it is a
8:42deficit economy. Russia has had a budget
8:45deficit of more than 3%for at least
8:47three years, and the more resources they
8:49pour into the war economy, the larger
8:51this state budget gap naturally becomes
8:53. Yes, and Russia has meanwhile also
8:55switched to monetary state financing.
8:57This means the banks, which are
8:59essentially under the control of the
9:01Kremlin itself or the oligarchs, are now
9:03being forced to buy government bonds,
9:05which allows the state to refinance
9:07itself.
9:08So, one must not make the mistake of
9:10confusing the surface of this economy
9:12with the hollowing out of the economy
9:14that is currently happening.
9:16Yes, for example, the effect that there
9:19has been an explosion of wages in Russia
9:21over the last two years.
9:23Many Western media outlets interpreted
9:25this as Russia booming and supposedly
9:27nothing bad happening to the economy.
9:29But the reason is quite different.
9:31Wages are exploding because there are
9:32too few people left.
9:34Yes, the people have either emigrated,
9:36or over a million of them are no longer
9:38alive because they were killed at the
9:40front.
9:41And you can imagine, if you have jobs to
9:43fill but no people, then wages go up.
9:45Yes, that is also an effect of a war
9:47economy that you simply don't see. And
9:50in that respect, you have to be careful
9:52.
9:53Yes, there is still this mental image of
9:55Russia as some kind of mysterious power
9:58where different laws apply, where the
10:01normal laws of economics or even physics
10:03don't apply, and that is of course
10:06nonsense.
10:08Yes, this is an economy living off its
10:09reserves, and it can do that until those
10:11reserves are completely exhausted, and
10:13then it will simply collapse.
10:14The longer the war lasts, the more we
10:16move into this scenario, both
10:18economically and militarily.
10:19>> I'd like to follow up on that
10:20immediately, because the question is, of
10:22course, when will the point come where
10:24Russia can no longer continue like this
10:25? The European Union's goal was to
10:27ensure with these sanctions that, at
10:29some point, their military capability
10:31would no longer exist simply because the
10:34money is missing.
10:36>> Yes, so militarily, their effectiveness
10:38is declining, and you can see that quite
10:39clearly when you look at the map.
10:42If you simply calculate how much
10:45territory Russia has occupied or been
10:47able to acquire in '24, in '25, and now
10:50in '26, we are currently at the lowest
10:53number of square kilometers ever
10:55measured, and there are now even small
10:58Ukrainian counter-advances.
11:01Yes, so you notice that Russia is no
11:03longer getting through at the front.
11:05That is particularly the case on the
11:08northeastern and central Donbas front,
11:10and the reason for that is simply that
11:13Ukraine has now built up such deep
11:15echelons of defensive positions in the
11:18hinterland—trenches and systems where
11:21drones monitor this no-man's-land and
11:23take them out immediately if they move
11:26into it.
11:28That the Russians can no longer get
11:29through at all. Yes, even though they
11:31now have between 1,000 and 1,500
11:33casualties per day—more than in the
11:35Crimean War—they are not breaking
11:37through anymore.
11:39And that is an interesting effect,
11:41because until now, observers mostly said
11:43that this is a war of attrition that
11:45will work out in Russia's favor.
11:47According to the motto: it might take
11:49longer, but in the end, they will win.
11:51The data and the maps show the exact
11:53opposite, that is, Russia has to
11:56sacrifice more and more resources for
11:58less and less operational gain.
12:01And in military terms, that naturally
12:02includes the war economy.
12:04You might say, sure, the economic
12:06sanctions from the EU aren't supported
12:09by the whole world and can be partially
12:11circumvented, but what Ukraine is doing
12:13is applying "real" sanctions.
12:17Meaning, they are deliberately targeting
12:20and hitting production capacities of the
12:24war economy, specifically the oil and
12:27gas industry, and all industrial sectors
12:31producing war goods, such as missile
12:34factories or facilities handling
12:37dual-use goods.
12:39That is why, for example, they shelled
12:41the oil refineries.
12:43And if you put that all together, they
12:45can really damage this war economy quite
12:47severely. That is, of course, an effect
12:49you don't see immediately, but it is an
12:51effect of continuous erosion.
12:53Yes, meaning this economy will
12:55continuously slow down and become less
12:57and less productive.
12:59>> This doesn't mean there will be some
13:01grand collapse, but there will reach a
13:03point where Russia simply cannot
13:04continue like this.
13:06>> When will that point be reached?
13:07>> Exactly.
13:09I don't think there will be a grand
13:11collapse because that would be quite
13:13atypical for Russian history.
13:16I know some observers expect that,
13:19following the idea that the oligarchs
13:22will eventually turn against Putin and
13:24trigger a big revolution.
13:27I don't believe that.
13:29I think this system will simply erode
13:31slowly until Putin realizes, "Okay, I
13:33just can't get through anymore, no
13:35matter how much I sacrifice."
13:39And then, I think he will be given
13:42signals that his position is starting to
13:46wobble.
13:48And since he is a highly trained power
13:50politician, I don't believe he will be
13:52irrational enough to sacrifice himself
13:54as well.
13:55So, in other words, once he realizes he
13:57cannot get through, he will most likely
13:59seriously consider for the first time
14:01what he is actually doing. I simply
14:03think Putin is not truly informed about
14:06the actual state of the war. That is to
14:08say, the maps he is shown or the reports
14:10from the front are likely embellished
14:12and exaggerated. Because I can't imagine
14:15it any other way, that he is still
14:16spreading his pseudo-historical
14:18narratives, uh, and still believes he
14:20could win the whole thing, uh, when the
14:22, when the entire data basis really
14:24speaks against it.
14:25Yes, and that's what I meant earlier by
14:27, um, what I notice with many
14:29commentators is that they don't argue in
14:31a data-driven way; they don't look at
14:33economic performance or the map, but
14:35rather at their own mental images.
14:37Yes, so they argue, uh, Russia is a
14:38magical empire, it's unusual, and
14:40different laws apply there, and that's
14:42why it has to turn out that way. Yes,
14:44and we should urgently move away from
14:46this emotional way, uh, of arguing.
14:48>> Yes, looking at it from the other side,
14:50one could also say that Ukraine is doing
14:52anything but well.
14:54We recently had this on our broadcast
14:56too, that evacuations are taking place
14:57in eastern towns, like Sloviansk,
14:59Kramatorsk; people have to leave there
15:01because these areas can no longer be
15:02protected.
15:04You see more and more often that Russia
15:06manages to, um, hit targets in Kyiv as
15:08well.
15:09I believe just today there was a report
15:10of a train station with at least 14
15:12deaths at the time we are both speaking
15:14.
15:15Then also the outages of Starlink, uh,
15:17where Ukraine struggled with its air
15:19defense.
15:21So the question of whether Kyiv can even
15:23make it through this fifth winter of the
15:25war is certainly in the room.
15:27Yes.
15:28>> Mhm.
15:29Well, that Ukraine is naturally
15:30suffering heavy damage from the war,
15:32that goes without saying and that
15:33doesn't really need to be discussed.
15:35Parenthesis open, war crimes,
15:37parenthesis close. Yes, so Russia is
15:39deliberately shelling civilians at
15:41civilian train stations, deliberately
15:43shelling civilian cities, and shelling
15:45civilian energy infrastructure. Yes, all
15:47of these are war crimes; they are not
15:50permitted under the Geneva Protocols nor
15:52under the Hague Convention. So, they are
15:54not allowed to deliberately shell the
15:56civilian population or the foundations
15:57of life. Fewer and fewer people are
15:59talking about that, but I mention it
16:01regularly that this is a criminal war,
16:03not just one that violates international
16:05law. Yes.
16:06Um, on the other hand, it must be said
16:08that much of what is regularly dragged
16:10out in the Western press, along the
16:11lines of "Ukraine cannot defend itself
16:13and is on the verge of collapse," simply
16:15does not correspond to the technical and
16:17military facts.
16:19So yes, it is true that Elon Musk messed
16:21around with Starlink for 5 days, but
16:23Starlink is now restored and functions
16:25just like it did before that episode,
16:27also at the old speed.
16:29Yes, Ukraine suffers damage to its
16:31energy infrastructure every war winter
16:33because Russia shells it, but they also
16:35repair it continuously.
16:38Yes, Ukrainian cities are being
16:40constantly shelled, and yes, the
16:41Ukrainian air defense is unable to
16:43engage everything with the same
16:45intensity.
16:47Meaning, um, to hit the Russian aircraft
16:50, um, and the positions from which this
16:52is happening, but that doesn't mean
16:54Ukraine is giving up.
16:57Yes, and one must also see, um, that it
17:00is only so difficult for the Ukrainians
17:02to organize this defense because they
17:05are still being supported quite
17:07hesitantly by the West.
17:10Yes, I mean, if we had a different US
17:12president and different European
17:14politicians, um, we could do much more
17:16if there were an understanding that
17:18Ukraine is actually the forward front
17:20for what we call Europe.
17:22>> I promised you we would talk briefly
17:23about peace negotiations, so perhaps a
17:25word on that.
17:27It has been noticeable in recent weeks
17:29that, um, individual heads of government
17:31in Europe have tried to make contact
17:33with Putin.
17:34There were phone calls from, uh, Finland
17:37, for example, and, um, that did not
17:40exactly meet with approval.
17:42Denmark, for instance, asked why Finland
17:44—and then it was also Norway—why these
17:47two countries should seek direct contact
17:49with Putin and try as individual states
17:51to push for peace efforts.
17:55And in fact, it is the case that even
17:56the Kremlin repeatedly says that Europe
17:59should agree on one negotiator to speak
18:01for the bloc.
18:02But that is precisely where the European
18:04Union has been failing for months. Why?
18:09>> Well, I would say generally, they should
18:11not let their agenda be dictated by the
18:13Kremlin, and certainly not fall for the
18:15motive of so-called peace negotiations.
18:17I think there is a certain residual
18:19naivety among some European politicians
18:22along the lines of, um, but surely Putin
18:24must have a rational interest in ending
18:27this war.
18:28Funnily enough, no, he doesn't have to.
18:30Putin sees this war from a primarily
18:33Soviet perspective, and I don't mean the
18:35party, but rather as a Chekist. Yes,
18:38from the perspective of the Soviet
18:39secret services, and that is primarily
18:41an imperial perspective. For him, no
18:43Ukrainian nation exists, nor does a
18:45Ukrainian people. For him, this is
18:47Novorossiya.
18:49For him, these are territories he once
18:51held and where it is his historical,
18:53world-historical mission to take them
18:55back.
18:57This imperial thinking is completely
18:59incompatible, not only with
19:01international law but also with the
19:02Westphalian principle, that is to say,
19:05the principle that states sovereignly
19:07decide on their foreign policy, their
19:09alliances, and that states simply have a
19:11right to exist.
19:13Yes, meaning that some other state
19:14cannot just come along and conquer them
19:16. That was the order we had established
19:18in the world before the Brilliant Keller
19:19, and you know what kind of world that
19:20was.
19:21With this imperial worldview, no
19:23understanding is possible. And I believe
19:26that is what these politicians fail to
19:27see. They just fall for it and let
19:29themselves be paraded by the Kremlin
19:31with the term "so-called peace
19:32negotiations." But if you consider, what
19:34actually happened in this phone call?
19:36Russia, well, Putin gave them both a
19:38lecture of about 90 minutes on his view
19:40of how the history of the Slavic peoples
19:43should be understood.
19:45Yes, well, it is starting to take on
19:46traits like Adolf Hitler. Yes, that one
19:49holds hours-long monologues late at
19:52night, for months on end, about how he
19:55sees world history. Yes, but that has
19:59very, very little to do with real
20:00geopolitics.
20:02We have seen this since '22; the French
20:04president already traveled to Moscow, as
20:07did the German Chancellor at the time,
20:09and the Austrian one too. Yes, they all
20:11show up at Putin's door like schoolboys
20:13. Yes, and think, "Oh please, please
20:15stop the war." And for me, that is not
20:17so much a sign of Putin's strength. For
20:18me, it is primarily a sign of European
20:20weakness. Yes, and I believe one should
20:23urgently move away from this weakness
20:25and urgently grow a backbone.
20:28>> What chances does diplomacy even have if
20:30one listens to you?
20:32So, is it this idea of a three-way
20:34summit that Donald Trump is now
20:36announcing, whether Putin, Zelenskyy,
20:38and himself, or Putin, Xi Jinping, and
20:41himself?
20:43Yes, I would say that would be the
20:44ultimate caricature of Yalta or Potsdam
20:47.
20:48Yes, behind that lies—there you see
20:50again this Putinist notion that Russia
20:52is virtually a superpower and equal to
20:54the USA.
20:55So, five—what I keep saying—the Soviet
20:58Union was a superpower. Modern Russia is
21:00not. Modern Russia has the gross
21:02domestic product of Italy.
21:04Yes, it has a population of 130 million
21:06if you only count ethnic Russians.
21:09Um, about 145 million if you count all
21:12the others who are not ethnic Russians.
21:15But still, that is a third of the
21:16European population. Yes, Russia doesn't
21:18have nearly the power of innovation,
21:20doesn't have nearly the standard of
21:21living. Um, the only thing they have is
21:23nuclear weapons. Yes, okay. But Pakistan
21:26, India, and probably Israel have those
21:28too.
21:29Um, yes, these are all just mental
21:30images, but they do have an effect on
21:32Trump.
21:34Yes, and um, and then give Putin the
21:36idea that we could, so to speak, um,
21:38hold a, a, a three-way meeting of the
21:40authoritarians, uh.
21:42Yes, and then they say where things are
21:43headed in the world. That is exactly
21:45what I mean by that is the opposing
21:46principle to the Westphalian world. Yes
21:48, in other words, there is then what the
21:50, what the legal scholar, uh, Carl
21:52Schmitt, who was a mastermind of
21:54National Socialism, also already said,
21:56there is then a world of the hegemonic
21:58powers, right?
22:00So every hegemonic power then has its
22:02personal space where it tells its
22:04vassals what to do and, um, others have
22:06to keep out of this space.
22:08So, the world is divided into spheres of
22:10influence. Yes, there are also certain,
22:12uh, people in Europe who call themselves
22:14scientists who are parroting that again
22:16today. There you notice how, right, this
22:19legacy of authoritarian thinking with
22:21links to fascism, um, that is actually
22:24what is behind it.
22:26Yes, and I think, um, one should
22:28urgently, uh, become aware that one
22:30should not simply parrot this in the
22:32media, but that one is, that one is
22:34advocating for an, an authoritarian, uh
22:36, um, person here, yes, and their
22:38projects, instead of decisively taking
22:40defensive measures against it.
22:43I would like to follow up on that again
22:45, because somehow it is something that
22:47many people are simply, where they are
22:48wringing their hands and looking for
22:50such a way to be satisfied.
22:53So, if you say diplomacy is not working
22:55because of the way Putin thinks and
22:57behaves, it is not possible with these
22:58classic means.
23:01>> Will it then be decided on the
23:02battlefield or how does one find an end
23:05to this conflict?
23:07Well, serious negotiations will only
23:09come about when Putin is truly convinced
23:12himself that he is not getting anywhere
23:14.
23:15In other words, that he is not making
23:17military progress and that he is slowly
23:18getting too many problems economically.
23:21So, in other words, very high inflation
23:23, as already exists in Russia now. You
23:25have to look at the explosion of food
23:26prices in Russia again. Butter has
23:28meanwhile become a luxury good, yes, as
23:30expensive as in Switzerland.
23:31Um, if you think about that, we are
23:33still a long way from that. Yes, so as
23:36long as Putin is convinced there, I just
23:38have to sacrifice even more, just throw
23:39more people in, more material, it's
23:41exactly like in Afghanistan, right?
23:43Afghanistan back in the '79 invasion,
23:45people also said, yes, that actually
23:47can't work and they actually have to
23:49stop now. They stayed for a total of 10
23:52years. Yes.
23:53Um, well, in my view, we really need to
23:56move away from these misguided hopes.
24:00Um, I don't believe that negotiations
24:02are a way to end this war, because if
24:04Putin gets away with even a partial
24:06victory, it will embolden his way of
24:08thinking, and his successors 'as well,
24:10by the way.
24:12I just have to keep up the pressure long
24:14enough, and then these decadent Western
24:17politicians and peoples will eventually
24:19cave in.
24:20Yes, and I know that in many European
24:22countries there is this mindset where
24:24people say, oh, can't they just cede a
24:26few territories so we can finally have
24:28peace again?
24:30Yes, that kind of thinking.
24:31And that's when I always ask, would you
24:34allow in your own country what you so
24:36casually demand of Ukraine?
24:40For example, Austria just gives up
24:42Burgenland, or Tyrol, for that matter.
24:46Yes, and then it's quiet again, or
24:48Germany is partially occupied and just
24:50says, well, places like Saxony or
24:52Bavaria, we don't really need those,
24:54let's just give them up.
24:57Or France, for example, during the
24:59Hundred Years' War, could have said, oh
25:01, those English can have Aquitaine, we
25:03don't really need it anyway. Strange,
25:05isn't it? In your own country, there
25:07would be a huge outcry, you'd be
25:08screaming treason, you would never allow
25:10it.
25:11Yes, but um, in Ukraine, people say—
25:14over the heads of the Ukrainian people—
25:17just make peace already. And here, too,
25:20you find this authoritarian mindset. Yes
25:22, it reflects older patterns in European
25:25history.
25:26For instance, the idea that Germany and
25:28Russia, in particular, are the, so to
25:29speak, "ordering powers" on the European
25:31continent.
25:32They sort of settle things between
25:34themselves and carve up Eastern Europe a
25:35bit among themselves. Even today, there
25:38are many, many people in Europe who
25:40parrot this again.
25:42Yes, and this way of thinking is
25:44extremely dangerous because, in my view
25:46, it leads to a chaotic nuclearization
25:48of the world.
25:50If you consider the setting: Ukraine
25:51voluntarily gave up its nuclear weapons
25:53—that is, its Soviet ones—through the
25:55Budapest Memorandum. Russia, however,
25:57kept theirs, and you know that the
25:59nuclear threat is always a constant
26:01companion in Russian propaganda
26:03maneuvers.
26:05If the world sees this and says, "Okay,
26:07in the end they prevail because the
26:09others are too weak and let them get
26:11away with it," then it means the only
26:13real security is having nuclear weapons
26:15, and then every state will arm itself
26:17nuclearly—especially Taiwan, yes,
26:19especially Saudi Arabia, perhaps even
26:21Poland.
26:23And then we will face a chaotic
26:24renuclearization of the world, and that
26:26will not make the world safer, but on
26:27the contrary, more insecure. Yes, and
26:29that is actually the whole
26:30world-historical dimension at stake here
26:33in Ukraine, which many, in their
26:34comfortable affluent pacifism, fail to
26:36see; but they are now being punished for
26:3930 years of world-historical negligence
26:41. Yes, they are sitting there grilling
26:42in their suburban homes, and now they
26:44realize the impacts are getting closer,
26:46the war is getting closer. Yes, their
26:47illusion of peace is being brutally
26:49shattered, but it was just an illusion,
26:51after all. Yes, we should have had a
26:53rethink in Europe at the latest by 2014
26:55, when Crimea was occupied, but we
26:56didn't, and now we are paying the price
26:58for it.
26:59And the last thing one should do now is
27:01to continue on this path of weakness.
27:04Yes, the best thing one can do is simply
27:06to draw the painful lesson from this and
27:08organize the defense. And that defense,
27:09as it happens, is in Ukraine.
27:11Yes, the last thing they need is for
27:13this front to come home to them, because
27:15he naturally will not stop.
27:17Yes, even if he only achieves partial
27:19success in Ukraine, it will continue.
27:21And that would not just be a short-term
27:23pain; they would then have a bleeding
27:25eastern border for decades, where there
27:28is never any peace.
27:29And that is the last thing Europe needs
27:31right now.
27:32>> Mr. Käup, I always ask every guest the
27:34same final question in this format. Um,
27:37you are free to choose how you answer;
27:39perhaps something comes to mind that
27:40fits the topic, but I always ask when
27:42you last changed your mind, on what
27:44subject, and for what reason.
27:46>> Mhm.
27:48I last changed my mind.
27:51In 2023, um, when I said the war is
27:54strategically lost for Russia. And I
27:56have stuck to that opinion, but I
27:58changed something else.
28:01Back then, I actually still thought that
28:04Putin was rational enough, or at least
28:06so well-informed by his generals, that
28:09he would see this coming attrition, this
28:12total decay of Russia, and that he would
28:15realize, um, that Russia was moving
28:17along a path from which there is no
28:20turning back.
28:22That is why I titled my book, in which I
28:24write about all of this, "Spurwechsel"(
28:26Changing Lanes). And this change of
28:28lanes is irreversible.
28:29So, until the summer of '23, I still
28:32thought, okay, he will realize he went
28:35in there, he burned his fingers, and he
28:38will probably then seek a face-saving
28:41exit.
28:43I still thought that in the summer of
28:45'23, but then I changed my mind and
28:47realized he wouldn't stop, he would keep
28:49going, and things would get much worse
28:51before they got better.
28:53>> It would have been nice if changing my
28:55opinion hadn't been necessary in this
28:57case, but that's just how it is. Yes,
28:59>> I want to say thank you for the
29:00conversation and for your time.

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