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Warum die KI-Blase bald platzt & was du tun solltest — Transcript

by Julian Ivanov | KI-Automatisierung · 4,717 words · 715 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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  1. 0:00For a change, there’s no tutorial on
  2. 0:02the channel today, because we need to
  3. 0:03talk about something currently hanging
  4. 0:05over the entire AI world that many
  5. 0:07people working with AI aren't even
  6. 0:08aware of. If you look at developments
  7. 0:11over the last few months and years,
  8. 0:13more and more people are asking if we
  9. 0:16are actually in a massive AI bubble
  10. 0:18that threatens to burst. The figures
  11. 0:21behind this concern are truly extreme,
  12. 0:24as OpenAI, the company behind GPT, says
  13. 0:27it has committed around 1.4 trillion
  14. 0:29dollars for the next 8 years for
  15. 0:31computing power, data centers, and
  16. 0:34chips. That is more than 30 times what
  17. 0:37the company brings in annually, and
  18. 0:38they are incurring billions in losses
  19. 0:40in the process. Oracle, the corporation
  20. 0:42building the data centers for OpenAI,
  21. 0:44has taken on so much debt that experts
  22. 0:46often doubt whether that money will
  23. 0:48ever be recouped. And almost the entire
  24. 0:51growth of the American economy is
  25. 0:52currently dependent on these AI
  26. 0:54investments. So if that tips over, it
  27. 0:56will hit much more than just a few tech
  28. 0:58stocks, let me tell you. At the same
  29. 1:00time, business is booming like crazy,
  30. 1:02as Anthropic, for example, the company
  31. 1:04behind Claude, has grown from a billion
  32. 1:06to 65 billion dollars in annual revenue
  33. 1:09in less than 2 years, faster than any
  34. 1:11software company before. And naturally,
  35. 1:13you think, okay, how does that even fit
  36. 1:15together? Are we experiencing the next
  37. 1:17dot-com bubble just before it bursts,
  38. 1:18or simply the next expensive build-out
  39. 1:20of a foundational technology, so to
  40. 1:22speak? So I did some serious research.
  41. 1:24I looked at the real numbers, the debts
  42. 1:26, the contracts, and the cash flows
  43. 1:28behind the scenes, and some of it
  44. 1:30really surprised me. I will also
  45. 1:32provide all the sources for this video
  46. 1:34in the video description. And I am now
  47. 1:36going to present everything on this
  48. 1:37topic in this video in a compact way,
  49. 1:39so that by the end you will know
  50. 1:41exactly how to assess the situation and
  51. 1:42what it means for you if you work with
  52. 1:44AI. So let's dive right in. Let's start
  53. 1:46with the scale to understand what kind
  54. 1:48of territory we are dealing with here.
  55. 1:50Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, and
  56. 1:53Oracle alone are spending almost 700
  57. 1:56billion dollars on AI data centers this
  58. 1:58year combined. That is more than the
  59. 2:01entire economic output of Austria, and
  60. 2:03that is being handled by just five
  61. 2:04companies in a single year. You
  62. 2:07naturally ask yourself where this money
  63. 2:09comes from, and until recently, these
  64. 2:10companies paid for their data centers
  65. 2:12almost entirely from their own profits,
  66. 2:14as they earn hundreds of billions every
  67. 2:15year from ads, cloud, and office
  68. 2:17subscriptions without having to borrow
  69. 2:19a single cent. But this year, for the
  70. 2:21first time, that’s no longer possible
  71. 2:23because the expansion now costs more
  72. 2:25than the companies earn in a year. So
  73. 2:27now, all profits are flowing into
  74. 2:29expansion, and the rest is being
  75. 2:30borrowed. Every third dollar for AI
  76. 2:32expansion, or rather for more data
  77. 2:34centers, is now borrowed. Two years ago
  78. 2:36, it wasn't even every tenth dollar. In
  79. 2:38the first five months of this year
  80. 2:40alone, these five companies borrowed
  81. 2:42159 billion dollars, more than in the
  82. 2:45five years prior combined. Even the
  83. 2:47International Monetary Fund, the
  84. 2:49organization that monitors the
  85. 2:51financial system for over 190 countries
  86. 2:53, is now warning us, as the major tech
  87. 2:55giants are starting to take on debt—
  88. 2:57specifically through bonds that last
  89. 2:59longer than the chips themselves. An AI
  90. 3:01chip is technically obsolete in two
  91. 3:03years. However, the debt taken out for
  92. 3:05them runs for 10 years or more. And now
  93. 3:06, a quick estimation question for you.
  94. 3:08What percentage of total American
  95. 3:10economic growth in the first quarter of
  96. 3:13this year do you think was tied to AI
  97. 3:16investments? It’s around 50%, and
  98. 3:18depending on how you calculate it, as
  99. 3:19much as 75%. That means, without the AI
  100. 3:22expansion, the world's largest economy
  101. 3:24would have grown only half as fast.
  102. 3:26This means America itself is now hooked
  103. 3:28on this boom. Do you get that point?
  104. 3:30We’ll come back to that in a moment.
  105. 3:31And it gets really uncomfortable when
  106. 3:33you look at where all this money is
  107. 3:35actually going: surprisingly often,
  108. 3:36it’s just moving in circles. Nvidia,
  109. 3:39the manufacturer of AI chips, invests
  110. 3:41up to 100 billion in OpenAI, while
  111. 3:43OpenAI, in return, promises to buy
  112. 3:46Nvidia chips. Furthermore, OpenAI is
  113. 3:48renting 300 billion in computing power
  114. 3:51from Oracle—the largest contract of
  115. 3:53its kind ever. And for that, Oracle is
  116. 3:56building data centers filled with, you
  117. 3:58guessed it, Nvidia chips. The media
  118. 4:01company Bloomberg traced these circular
  119. 4:03transactions and found over 800 billion
  120. 4:05dollars being shifted around in circles
  121. 4:07. This means that from the outside, it
  122. 4:09looks like gigantic growth. From the
  123. 4:11inside, however, it’s partly the same
  124. 4:13money just spinning around on a
  125. 4:14carousel. And the carousel has a second
  126. 4:17level, because the cloud revenue that
  127. 4:18Microsoft and Google are currently
  128. 4:20boasting about on the stock market
  129. 4:22comes, to a surprising extent, from
  130. 4:23just two customers. The major bank UBS
  131. 4:26calculated that OpenAI and Anthropic
  132. 4:28will account for a good quarter of
  133. 4:29Google’s cloud revenue this year and
  134. 4:32almost half next year. And according to
  135. 4:34analyst Citron, 69%of Microsoft’s
  136. 4:37cloud growth last year came from OpenAI
  137. 4:40alone. Without Anthropic, without
  138. 4:44OpenAI. Well, I have serious questions
  139. 4:46about that. So, in cal 2025, according
  140. 4:49to my own reporting about Open AI
  141. 4:51numbers, 69%of the year over year
  142. 4:53growth of Microsoft's intelligent cloud
  143. 4:55segment was actually from Open AI.
  144. 4:58Without that, it would have only grown
  145. 5:008%year over year, which is just
  146. 5:02inflation. The celebrated AI growth of
  147. 5:10these corporations is, therefore, to a
  148. 5:12large extent, money from two firms that
  149. 5:14pay for their own expansion with
  150. 5:16investor cash, partly provided by these
  151. 5:17same corporations. It’s as if a car
  152. 5:21dealer were to lend you the money for
  153. 5:22his own car, and if your bank hesitates
  154. 5:24with the loan, the dealer even vouches
  155. 5:26for you. On August 17th. Nvidia
  156. 5:28announced via a stock market filing
  157. 5:30that it would stand for up to 105
  158. 5:33billion dollars to ensure a gigantic
  159. 5:35data center can be built in Ohio for
  160. 5:37Open AI. It will be built and operated
  161. 5:40by SB Energy, a Softbank subsidiary in
  162. 5:42which Nvidia is simultaneously
  163. 5:44investing 1.5 billion, and it will be
  164. 5:46stocked exclusively with Nvidia chips.
  165. 5:49Open AI is leasing the entire facility
  166. 5:51for 20 years, and if Open AI cannot pay
  167. 5:53the rent, Nvidia is liable. So, the
  168. 5:55chip seller is vouching for the debts
  169. 5:57of its largest customer so that they
  170. 5:58can continue to buy chips. And to the
  171. 6:01obvious question of whether this isn't
  172. 6:03circular financing, Nvidia CEO Jensen
  173. 6:05Huang responded on X: No, Open AI is
  174. 6:07paying the rent. And that may be true,
  175. 6:09as long as Open AI can actually afford
  176. 6:11to pay that rent. At the same time,
  177. 6:12Open AI is currently preparing one of
  178. 6:14the biggest IPOs of all time. The goal
  179. 6:17is a valuation of one trillion dollars.
  180. 6:20And since July, we also know that Open
  181. 6:22AI has proposed to the US government to
  182. 6:24transfer 5%of the company to them,
  183. 6:26officially as a partnership for America
  184. 6:29as an AI hub. Some say you can also
  185. 6:32view this as: whoever has the state as
  186. 6:34a co-owner will be bailed out in an
  187. 6:36emergency. Because companies whose
  188. 6:39business speaks for itself don't
  189. 6:40actually need guarantees from their own
  190. 6:42suppliers or the state on board. And if
  191. 6:44you now ask yourself how this even
  192. 6:46works, how long this can keep going,
  193. 6:48and where this chain might eventually
  194. 6:50snap, then you naturally look at the
  195. 6:52weakest link. And in this case, there
  196. 6:55are two: namely, Oracle and Open AI.
  197. 6:57Let’s start with Oracle. There are
  198. 6:59rating agencies, like S&P for example,
  199. 7:01that evaluate how securely a company
  200. 7:03can repay its debts. In principle,
  201. 7:05it’s the credit score for
  202. 7:07corporations, and Oracle received a
  203. 7:09rating of BBB-in July. This is the
  204. 7:11lowest grade at which a company is
  205. 7:13still considered a secure debtor. One
  206. 7:16step lower, Oracle would officially be
  207. 7:17a risky borrower, and pension funds and
  208. 7:19insurance companies would no longer be
  209. 7:20allowed to lend Oracle money under
  210. 7:22their own rules. And the reason for
  211. 7:25this is that half of all future Oracle
  212. 7:27orders depend on a single customer,
  213. 7:29namely OpenAI. For this one customer,
  214. 7:32Oracle has increased its debt in one
  215. 7:34year from 85 to around 125 billion
  216. 7:37dollars. On top of that, the contract
  217. 7:39timelines don't match up at all.
  218. 7:41Because Oracle has leased these data
  219. 7:42centers for nearly 20 years. OpenAI, on
  220. 7:45the other hand, has only booked them
  221. 7:46for 5 years. If OpenAI doesn't renew,
  222. 7:49Oracle will be stuck with empty halls
  223. 7:50for 15 years, unless they find someone
  224. 7:52else. Financial market professionals
  225. 7:54have long since been hedging, and
  226. 7:56insurance policies that would pay out
  227. 7:58in the event of an Oracle bankruptcy
  228. 8:00are currently at an all-time high. The
  229. 8:03second weak link is OpenAI itself; in
  230. 8:05June, OpenAI's financial figures were
  231. 8:07released and confirmed by the Financial
  232. 8:10Times. 13 billion dollars in revenue,
  233. 8:1321 billion in operating losses. For
  234. 8:16every dollar OpenAI brings in, the
  235. 8:17company loses a dollar sixty. HSBC bank
  236. 8:21estimates that OpenAI will need to
  237. 8:23raise an additional 200 billion dollars
  238. 8:25externally by 2030 just to fulfill its
  239. 8:27own contracts. generating revenue model
  240. 8:39intelligence And the CFO announced to
  241. 8:51employees in August that OpenAI would
  242. 8:53be on the stock market by 2027. The
  243. 8:57money has to last until then, and in
  244. 8:59March 2027, Softbank—one of OpenAI's
  245. 9:01most important backers—has to repay a
  246. 9:0340 billion dollar loan of its own.
  247. 9:07Which means things are going to get
  248. 9:08pretty uncomfortable for them. OpenAI
  249. 9:11is also under significant pressure
  250. 9:13internally, as within just a few days
  251. 9:15in August, COO Brad Lightcap left after
  252. 9:188 years and sales chief Denise Dresser
  253. 9:21left after less than a year, shortly
  254. 9:23after employees sold a total of 7
  255. 9:25billion dollars 'worth of OpenAI shares
  256. 9:28. CNBC cites industry experts who call
  257. 9:31this a huge warning sign ahead of the
  258. 9:34IPO, because normally no one leaves
  259. 9:36voluntarily right before their own
  260. 9:38shares go public. And raising investor
  261. 9:41capital isn't as easy as it used to be,
  262. 9:43as evidenced by how aggressively OpenAI
  263. 9:45is now courting money and customers.
  264. 9:48For a joint vehicle with private equity
  265. 9:50firms, OpenAI is guaranteeing investors
  266. 9:52a minimum annual return of 17.5%for 5
  267. 9:54years. No one gives those kinds of
  268. 9:57guarantees if investors are lining up
  269. 9:58on their own. This means that as long
  270. 10:01as new money keeps coming in, the party
  271. 10:03continues, but if the cash flow dries
  272. 10:05up, the first domino falls, followed by
  273. 10:06the data centers, and then the cloud
  274. 10:08revenue of the world's largest
  275. 10:10corporations. And of course, one has to
  276. 10:12wonder, if it’s all so shaky, why is
  277. 10:14everyone participating? Nvidia,
  278. 10:16Microsoft, Google—they know the
  279. 10:18numbers much better than we do. Why are
  280. 10:20they still pumping hundreds of billions
  281. 10:22more into this merry-go-round? That is
  282. 10:24because the other side of the equation
  283. 10:26looks just as extreme as the debt side.
  284. 10:29The demand for AI is currently growing
  285. 10:31faster than for any technology before
  286. 10:32it. Just take a look at Anthropic. At
  287. 10:35the end of 2024, they were at one
  288. 10:37billion dollars in annual revenue, 9
  289. 10:40billion by the end of 2025, 47 billion
  290. 10:43in May 2026, and 65 by the end of July.
  291. 10:48No company in software history has ever
  292. 10:50grown as fast as Anthropic, and in the
  293. 10:52second quarter, Anthropic reported that
  294. 10:54for the first time, their operating
  295. 10:56income exceeded their expenditures.
  296. 10:58They still need billions from the
  297. 11:00outside because training the next
  298. 11:02models is so expensive, and they have
  299. 11:04secured 200 billion dollars in
  300. 11:05computing power from Google alone for
  301. 11:07this purpose. The difference from
  302. 11:09OpenAI, however, lies in the ratio,
  303. 11:10because Anthropic promised much less
  304. 11:12and is also generating significantly
  305. 11:13more revenue. And it is precisely this
  306. 11:15ratio that ultimately determines who
  307. 11:17survives a crisis. And this is not an
  308. 11:18isolated case either. On OpenRouter, a
  309. 11:21platform that allows you to use any AI
  310. 11:23model from any provider, usage has
  311. 11:25increased fivefold in 6 months. This
  312. 11:27means more and more people want to use
  313. 11:29AI for their use cases. And by the way,
  314. 11:32you have long been feeling this demand
  315. 11:34yourself, because 32 GB of RAM for your
  316. 11:36PC cost 80 € a year ago, and today
  317. 11:39you are at 400. This is because memory
  318. 11:41manufacturers are now putting almost 70
  319. 11:43%of their production into AI servers.
  320. 11:46Production for 2027 is even already
  321. 11:48sold out, and Samsung itself is warning
  322. 11:50of shortages until at least 2027. If
  323. 11:54you want to buy a PC sometime soon, you
  324. 11:55are indirectly paying for this AI
  325. 11:57expansion as well. That is obviously
  326. 11:59annoying for you, but it is a strong
  327. 12:00signal for our question. Bubbles burst
  328. 12:02when too much supply meets too little
  329. 12:05demand. But right now, it is the other
  330. 12:06way around. Demand is outstripping
  331. 12:09supply. So demand is extremely high,
  332. 12:11and that is the reason why everyone is
  333. 12:13joining in. The crucial question is
  334. 12:15just whether this money will also end
  335. 12:17up with the companies that are
  336. 12:18currently spending the 700 billion and
  337. 12:20promised the 1.4 trillion. And this is
  338. 12:22exactly where China comes into play.
  339. 12:24You could see how nervous the market is
  340. 12:26about this question in January 2025. A
  341. 12:28then-barely-known Chinese lab called
  342. 12:30DeepSeek released a model that could
  343. 12:32keep up with the best American models,
  344. 12:34supposedly at a fraction of the
  345. 12:36training costs. On the next trading day
  346. 12:39, Nvidia lost 17%of its market
  347. 12:40capitalization, meaning nearly 600
  348. 12:42billion dollars in market value in a
  349. 12:44single day. That was the biggest
  350. 12:47single-day stock loss in history at the
  351. 12:49time, and not because of any financial
  352. 12:50problems, but simply because the
  353. 12:52question suddenly arose as to whether
  354. 12:54you really need so many expensive chips
  355. 12:56for top-tier AI and whether you really
  356. 12:58have to rely on these American models.
  357. 13:00And that question has remained ever
  358. 13:01since. The American government tested
  359. 13:04DeepSeek's current model themselves in
  360. 13:06May and concluded that it is about 8
  361. 13:09months behind the US leaders. So, only
  362. 13:118 months. But in return, it is freely
  363. 13:14available. Anyone can download it and
  364. 13:16run it on their own server. You need
  365. 13:18the hardware, of course, but
  366. 13:19nonetheless. And in operation, very
  367. 13:22importantly, it costs 60 to 90%less
  368. 13:23than the models from OpenAI and
  369. 13:25Anthropic, depending on the task. And
  370. 13:28DeepSeek is not alone. Alibaba,
  371. 13:30Moonshot, and Jina AI are releasing
  372. 13:33similar models weekly for the same low
  373. 13:35costs. And that is precisely why the
  374. 13:39demand for Chinese models has grown
  375. 13:40extremely in recent months, because for
  376. 13:42most everyday tasks, a model that is 8
  377. 13:44months behind but costs a fifth is
  378. 13:46simply the better choice. You don't
  379. 13:49always have to take the newest Bugatti
  380. 13:50just to drive somewhere. Many companies
  381. 13:53are therefore already relying on and
  382. 13:55using Chinese AI models. On OpenRouter,
  383. 13:58the share of American models has fallen
  384. 14:00from 70%to 30%within a year. A year and
  385. 14:04a half ago, Chinese models there were
  386. 14:06still at around 1%. And if you look at
  387. 14:09the leaderboard on OpenRouter under the
  388. 14:11most used models, you actually see
  389. 14:12almost nothing but Chinese models now.
  390. 14:15I still see GPT-4o, Claude, and Llama
  391. 14:17here, and Nemotron down there. But
  392. 14:19otherwise, those are all Chinese models
  393. 14:21, and I've also listed a few examples
  394. 14:22of companies that use these Chinese
  395. 14:24models. Coinbase, for example, the
  396. 14:27largest crypto exchange in the US,
  397. 14:29switched its developers to Chinese
  398. 14:31models by default in the summer and
  399. 14:33halved its AI costs. With more usage
  400. 14:36than before. Cursor, one of the world's
  401. 14:39most famous AI programming tools or
  402. 14:41development environments, built its own
  403. 14:43model on a Chinese model, and in March
  404. 14:45of this year, there was a huge scandal
  405. 14:47because they initially hid the fact
  406. 14:49that they were using Kimi 1.5 Pro for
  407. 14:51it, but then someone noticed it, and
  408. 14:53everyone was shocked again that it was
  409. 14:55even possible—that Chinese models are
  410. 14:57so good that Americans are now secretly
  411. 14:59using them in the background. And
  412. 15:03Airbnb, for example, operates its
  413. 15:04customer service with Alibaba Qwen
  414. 15:06because, according to their boss, it is
  415. 15:07good, fast, and cheap. Nonetheless,
  416. 15:10there are of course some security
  417. 15:11concerns, but the models are all
  418. 15:13open-weight. That means you can host
  419. 15:15them yourself, which ensures no data is
  420. 15:16sent to China, and that is exactly what
  421. 15:18many companies are doing now. Chinese
  422. 15:20models have also been hosted in the
  423. 15:22Ollama Cloud for a long time now. And
  424. 15:24here we can see. For example, Qwen 2.5:
  425. 15:25You can use that here now, and the data
  426. 15:27doesn't end up in China. Or DeepSeek V3
  427. 15:29, a very good model, and there will
  428. 15:31also be many data centers in the EU
  429. 15:33that will host these Chinese models.
  430. 15:36And this is the point where the US
  431. 15:38companies' math falls apart, because
  432. 15:39the old tech strategy—conquer the
  433. 15:41market first, then raise prices, and so
  434. 15:43on—no longer works because we have
  435. 15:45cheap alternatives. And you could
  436. 15:47really see that in the pricing of
  437. 15:49American models as soon as a new AI
  438. 15:51model was released by the Chinese.
  439. 15:53OpenAI cut its prices by up to 80%at
  440. 15:56the end of July. Anthropic had
  441. 15:58announced a 50%price increase for
  442. 16:00September and canceled it again in
  443. 16:01August. Even Claude 3.5. For example,
  444. 16:05Anthropic's most powerful model was
  445. 16:07originally supposed to be available
  446. 16:09only via API after one month, meaning
  447. 16:11billing per token. But that was exactly
  448. 16:14when the latest Chinese models, like
  449. 16:16Qwen 2.5, were released, and Anthropic
  450. 16:17thought: "No, we can't do that now." We
  451. 16:19have to keep Claude in the regular
  452. 16:21subscription plans so that people
  453. 16:23continue to use and buy it. This means
  454. 16:25that the prices per request are falling
  455. 16:27instead of rising. And for us as users,
  456. 16:29that is of course good news. But not
  457. 16:31for a company that now has to earn back
  458. 16:331.4 trillion. And China is attacking on
  459. 16:36a second front, namely with AI chips.
  460. 16:38Nvidia once had a 95%market share in
  461. 16:41China. Today it is zero because the US
  462. 16:44banned the export of AI chips to China,
  463. 16:46so China is now building its own chips,
  464. 16:49and Huawei is even doubling production
  465. 16:51this year, with DeepSeek's new model
  466. 16:54already running on Huawei chips. The
  467. 16:57second-largest AI market in the world
  468. 16:59is no longer buying from Nvidia, and so
  469. 17:01Nvidia's growth depends all the more on
  470. 17:03the carousel from before. The four
  471. 17:05largest Chinese tech giants are
  472. 17:07spending a combined 100 billion dollars
  473. 17:09on AI this year. And that is only a
  474. 17:11fraction of what the Americans are
  475. 17:13spending. This means they are paying
  476. 17:15only a fraction of that, yet they are
  477. 17:17only 8 months behind the leaders. And
  478. 17:19that is exactly a huge reason why the
  479. 17:21entire valuation of these companies is
  480. 17:23so shaky. So, let's get back to the
  481. 17:25question of whether or not we are
  482. 17:26currently in an AI bubble. It must be
  483. 17:28said quite clearly: people are using AI
  484. 17:29, they are paying for it, and the
  485. 17:30numbers are growing every month. AI is
  486. 17:32also here to stay. The product itself
  487. 17:35is not a bubble, but what companies
  488. 17:37spend and promise doesn't match their
  489. 17:39revenue. OpenAI has signed for 1.4
  490. 17:42trillion and brings in 40 billion.
  491. 17:45Nvidia is essentially financing its own
  492. 17:47customers. Companies are borrowing one
  493. 17:49in every three dollars, which only
  494. 17:50works if almost nothing goes wrong in
  495. 17:52the next few years. And as we have just
  496. 17:54seen, quite a bit is already going
  497. 17:55wrong. So you could say the bubble is
  498. 17:58in the price, not the product;
  499. 18:00companies are overvalued and
  500. 18:01over-leveraged for what they earn today
  501. 18:04, while Chinese models are driving down
  502. 18:06the prices they hoped to catch up with.
  503. 18:09At some point, it will balance out
  504. 18:11again, either because revenues keep
  505. 18:13growing like with Anthropic, or because
  506. 18:15valuations fall. And this isn't a new
  507. 18:16pattern either. In the year 2000, the
  508. 18:19Nasdaq tech index lost 78%, Amazon
  509. 18:21stock over 90%, yet the internet didn't
  510. 18:24disappear back then, and neither did
  511. 18:26Amazon. Investors may have lost their
  512. 18:29money, but the technology remained, and
  513. 18:31it was the same story 100 years earlier
  514. 18:32with the railroads. Shareholders went
  515. 18:34bust, yet the tracks were still there
  516. 18:36and were used for another century. And
  517. 18:38this isn't just what I think. In July,
  518. 18:41an internal report from the US Treasury
  519. 18:43leaked, written for the Treasury
  520. 18:45Secretary and top financial regulators.
  521. 18:47It states that AI companies are
  522. 18:49currently much more deeply embedded in
  523. 18:51the economy than dot-com firms were
  524. 18:53back then, and that a crash would
  525. 18:55therefore hit stock markets, credit
  526. 18:56markets, and even power utilities. But
  527. 18:59it also says that the big AI firms are
  528. 19:01financially much healthier than the
  529. 19:04dot-com busts of 2000, which could
  530. 19:06cushion a crash. But publicly, the US
  531. 19:09Treasury naturally continues to promote
  532. 19:11the growth story and the big AI boom.
  533. 19:14So, in conclusion, let's look at the
  534. 19:15question of what exactly is going to
  535. 19:16happen now? How can things proceed from
  536. 19:18here? And, of course, no one can answer
  537. 19:20that for you right now. Neither can I,
  538. 19:22but there are basically three ways this
  539. 19:23whole thing can play out. The first way
  540. 19:26is a slow correction, I would say. I
  541. 19:28actually consider that quite likely.
  542. 19:30That means there won't be a big bang,
  543. 19:31there won't be a bubble that suddenly
  544. 19:33bursts, but rather the weakest
  545. 19:34companies and projects will simply fall
  546. 19:36away one by one. This means a portion
  547. 19:38of the planned data centers will simply
  548. 19:40never be built. Of those scheduled by
  549. 19:422027, 16%haven't even started
  550. 19:44construction yet. And a few providers
  551. 19:47that built everything on credit will
  552. 19:49likely go bankrupt, and AI stocks on
  553. 19:51the market will drop by 20 or 30%once
  554. 19:53or twice. Oracle, for example, even
  555. 19:55more so. This trend has already
  556. 19:58partially begun, because the Stargate
  557. 20:00project, which Trump announced in
  558. 20:02January 2025 with $ 500 billion, still
  559. 20:04has no staff today and isn't building
  560. 20:06anything itself. Oracle and OpenAI
  561. 20:09already halted expansion at the
  562. 20:11flagship site in Texas in March, and in
  563. 20:14the first quarter of this year alone,
  564. 20:16public protests in the U.S. blocked or
  565. 20:18delayed $ 130 billion worth of data
  566. 20:20centers. This means that at the end of
  567. 20:23this path, maybe a few big providers
  568. 20:25plus open models from China will remain
  569. 20:27, and the expansion will continue, just
  570. 20:29slower. Let’s move to the second
  571. 20:31possible path, and that is the chain
  572. 20:33reaction. It begins with a single event
  573. 20:35; for instance, if the OpenAI IPO fails
  574. 20:38or if a Chinese lab delivers the next "
  575. 20:40Deepsea" moment right beforehand,
  576. 20:42OpenAI won't get any fresh capital.
  577. 20:45Then OpenAI won't be able to pay its
  578. 20:47contracts. Then Oracle will lose half
  579. 20:49its orders. Then Nvidia will have to
  580. 20:51foot the bill for the rent in Ohio. And
  581. 20:53now the thought from the beginning
  582. 20:54comes back. Three-quarters of U.S.
  583. 20:56growth depends on this expansion; if
  584. 20:58this chain breaks. Then we're not just
  585. 21:00talking about a few tech stocks, but
  586. 21:02perhaps a recession that hits many
  587. 21:04people who might not even use AI or
  588. 21:06haven't written a single AI prompt. And
  589. 21:09that is exactly why I consider this
  590. 21:11path somewhat less likely, because a
  591. 21:13government whose growth depends on this
  592. 21:15expansion won't just stand by and watch
  593. 21:17the chain break, right? So, I believe
  594. 21:19they will definitely take their
  595. 21:20measures. And the fact that OpenAI
  596. 21:22offered the state 5%also fits into this
  597. 21:24picture for me. And the third path is
  598. 21:26what’s called "growing into it." This
  599. 21:28means revenues continue to grow. Demand
  600. 21:30remains extremely strong for American
  601. 21:32AI models, and eventually, these firms
  602. 21:34truly earn as much as they are
  603. 21:36currently valued at. According to
  604. 21:38Anthropic's figures, that is possible.
  605. 21:40But it is the only path where very
  606. 21:42little can go wrong over the next few
  607. 21:43years and everything has to play into
  608. 21:45American hands. So, what does all this
  609. 21:47mean for you concretely, and what do
  610. 21:49you do with it now? A financial
  611. 21:51YouTuber would tell you at this point
  612. 21:52which stocks you should avoid. I’d
  613. 21:54rather tell you what this means for
  614. 21:56your work with AI. Perhaps a small
  615. 21:58sentence on stocks anyway. I’m no
  616. 21:59financial advisor, but if an industry
  617. 22:02needs record-breaking IPOs just to pay
  618. 22:04its bills, the retail investor who gets
  619. 22:07in at the very end is rarely the winner
  620. 22:09. For your work with AI, however, the
  621. 22:11direction remains the same in all three
  622. 22:13scenarios, because models are getting
  623. 22:15better and prices per query are falling
  624. 22:17due to competition from China, open
  625. 22:19source, and more efficient chips. And
  626. 22:21even in the event of a crash, the data
  627. 22:23centers aren't just going to be torn
  628. 22:25down if an investor goes bankrupt. They
  629. 22:28will be sold and keep running, just at
  630. 22:30a lower cost. There are three specific
  631. 22:32things I would advise you to do now.
  632. 22:33First, build your automations so that
  633. 22:36you can swap out the AI model at any
  634. 22:38time. Don't make yourself dependent on
  635. 22:41a single provider. We saw how necessary
  636. 22:43that is back in June, when Claude 3.5
  637. 22:46was supposed to be shut off for
  638. 22:47everyone outside the US per government
  639. 22:50order, and Anthropic just turned it off
  640. 22:52for everyone for two weeks, and nobody
  641. 22:54knew what exactly was going to happen.
  642. 22:57And if your entire workflow relies on
  643. 22:59one single provider, you have the same
  644. 23:00problem as Oracle, just on a smaller
  645. 23:02scale. By the way, if you can swap your
  646. 23:05model, you can also do what many big
  647. 23:07companies are currently doing: offload
  648. 23:09standard tasks to a cheap, open-source
  649. 23:11Chinese model and only use the
  650. 23:13expensive one where it truly makes a
  651. 23:15difference. Second, be careful with
  652. 23:18long, expensive contracts for any AI
  653. 23:20platforms, because as you can see,
  654. 23:22things change daily and prices are
  655. 23:24falling extremely fast. This means a
  656. 23:26three-year contract signed today might
  657. 23:28be completely overpriced in a year. And
  658. 23:30third, and this is the most important
  659. 23:32point, in the end, it doesn't matter
  660. 23:34which model you use or if you are using
  661. 23:36the very best one. What matters is
  662. 23:39whether AI is being used in your
  663. 23:40company in a way that actually saves
  664. 23:42time, cuts costs, or generates revenue.
  665. 23:45This means it must be properly
  666. 23:46implemented within the company, and you
  667. 23:48may even need to completely rethink
  668. 23:50your own processes to do so. And that
  669. 23:52is exactly where many companies are
  670. 23:55currently failing; in a major survey,
  671. 23:57for example, where over 2,500 corporate
  672. 24:00decision-makers were polled, 74%said
  673. 24:02they had to shut down an AI agent after
  674. 24:04launch. And not because the model was
  675. 24:07too poor, but because the rules,
  676. 24:09processes, and oversight were missing.
  677. 24:11What’s scarce isn't the AI, but the
  678. 24:13ability to actually implement it
  679. 24:14correctly within the company. And
  680. 24:16whoever can do that, whoever rethinks
  681. 24:18processes and adapts accordingly, will
  682. 24:19be needed in every scenario, especially
  683. 24:21in a crash scenario, because that is
  684. 24:23exactly when companies watch their
  685. 24:25money. If you would like to learn more
  686. 24:27about this, you are of course welcome
  687. 24:28to drop by my community at any time.
  688. 24:30The link is in the video description.
  689. 24:31Here, we cover exactly how to really
  690. 24:33use AI in a corporate context and not
  691. 24:35just automate processes, but rethink
  692. 24:37them as well. And how can you approach
  693. 24:40all these topics, especially if you are
  694. 24:41not a programmer? We cover all of this
  695. 24:43very intensively here. That means if
  696. 24:44you are interested, you are always more
  697. 24:46than welcome. That is my assessment as
  698. 24:48of today. I hope you were able to take
  699. 24:49something away from this. Now, I would
  700. 24:51be very interested to hear your opinion
  701. 24:53on this and which scenario you think is
  702. 24:55the most likely. Feel free to write it
  703. 24:57in the comments so we can continue the
  704. 24:58discussion there. Otherwise, thank you
  705. 25:00very much for watching. And if you are
  706. 25:02specifically interested in the
  707. 25:03practical side, meaning automations
  708. 25:05that pay off even without
  709. 25:06trillion-dollar valuations, you will
  710. 25:07find plenty of content here on this
  711. 25:09channel. So feel free to take a look,
  712. 25:11and leave a like and a subscription so
  713. 25:12you don't miss any future content. I
  714. 25:14would say we will see each other again
  715. 25:15in the next video.

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