Warum die KI-Blase bald platzt & was du tun solltest — Transcript
Full transcript
- 0:00For a change, there’s no tutorial on
- 0:02the channel today, because we need to
- 0:03talk about something currently hanging
- 0:05over the entire AI world that many
- 0:07people working with AI aren't even
- 0:08aware of. If you look at developments
- 0:11over the last few months and years,
- 0:13more and more people are asking if we
- 0:16are actually in a massive AI bubble
- 0:18that threatens to burst. The figures
- 0:21behind this concern are truly extreme,
- 0:24as OpenAI, the company behind GPT, says
- 0:27it has committed around 1.4 trillion
- 0:29dollars for the next 8 years for
- 0:31computing power, data centers, and
- 0:34chips. That is more than 30 times what
- 0:37the company brings in annually, and
- 0:38they are incurring billions in losses
- 0:40in the process. Oracle, the corporation
- 0:42building the data centers for OpenAI,
- 0:44has taken on so much debt that experts
- 0:46often doubt whether that money will
- 0:48ever be recouped. And almost the entire
- 0:51growth of the American economy is
- 0:52currently dependent on these AI
- 0:54investments. So if that tips over, it
- 0:56will hit much more than just a few tech
- 0:58stocks, let me tell you. At the same
- 1:00time, business is booming like crazy,
- 1:02as Anthropic, for example, the company
- 1:04behind Claude, has grown from a billion
- 1:06to 65 billion dollars in annual revenue
- 1:09in less than 2 years, faster than any
- 1:11software company before. And naturally,
- 1:13you think, okay, how does that even fit
- 1:15together? Are we experiencing the next
- 1:17dot-com bubble just before it bursts,
- 1:18or simply the next expensive build-out
- 1:20of a foundational technology, so to
- 1:22speak? So I did some serious research.
- 1:24I looked at the real numbers, the debts
- 1:26, the contracts, and the cash flows
- 1:28behind the scenes, and some of it
- 1:30really surprised me. I will also
- 1:32provide all the sources for this video
- 1:34in the video description. And I am now
- 1:36going to present everything on this
- 1:37topic in this video in a compact way,
- 1:39so that by the end you will know
- 1:41exactly how to assess the situation and
- 1:42what it means for you if you work with
- 1:44AI. So let's dive right in. Let's start
- 1:46with the scale to understand what kind
- 1:48of territory we are dealing with here.
- 1:50Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, and
- 1:53Oracle alone are spending almost 700
- 1:56billion dollars on AI data centers this
- 1:58year combined. That is more than the
- 2:01entire economic output of Austria, and
- 2:03that is being handled by just five
- 2:04companies in a single year. You
- 2:07naturally ask yourself where this money
- 2:09comes from, and until recently, these
- 2:10companies paid for their data centers
- 2:12almost entirely from their own profits,
- 2:14as they earn hundreds of billions every
- 2:15year from ads, cloud, and office
- 2:17subscriptions without having to borrow
- 2:19a single cent. But this year, for the
- 2:21first time, that’s no longer possible
- 2:23because the expansion now costs more
- 2:25than the companies earn in a year. So
- 2:27now, all profits are flowing into
- 2:29expansion, and the rest is being
- 2:30borrowed. Every third dollar for AI
- 2:32expansion, or rather for more data
- 2:34centers, is now borrowed. Two years ago
- 2:36, it wasn't even every tenth dollar. In
- 2:38the first five months of this year
- 2:40alone, these five companies borrowed
- 2:42159 billion dollars, more than in the
- 2:45five years prior combined. Even the
- 2:47International Monetary Fund, the
- 2:49organization that monitors the
- 2:51financial system for over 190 countries
- 2:53, is now warning us, as the major tech
- 2:55giants are starting to take on debt—
- 2:57specifically through bonds that last
- 2:59longer than the chips themselves. An AI
- 3:01chip is technically obsolete in two
- 3:03years. However, the debt taken out for
- 3:05them runs for 10 years or more. And now
- 3:06, a quick estimation question for you.
- 3:08What percentage of total American
- 3:10economic growth in the first quarter of
- 3:13this year do you think was tied to AI
- 3:16investments? It’s around 50%, and
- 3:18depending on how you calculate it, as
- 3:19much as 75%. That means, without the AI
- 3:22expansion, the world's largest economy
- 3:24would have grown only half as fast.
- 3:26This means America itself is now hooked
- 3:28on this boom. Do you get that point?
- 3:30We’ll come back to that in a moment.
- 3:31And it gets really uncomfortable when
- 3:33you look at where all this money is
- 3:35actually going: surprisingly often,
- 3:36it’s just moving in circles. Nvidia,
- 3:39the manufacturer of AI chips, invests
- 3:41up to 100 billion in OpenAI, while
- 3:43OpenAI, in return, promises to buy
- 3:46Nvidia chips. Furthermore, OpenAI is
- 3:48renting 300 billion in computing power
- 3:51from Oracle—the largest contract of
- 3:53its kind ever. And for that, Oracle is
- 3:56building data centers filled with, you
- 3:58guessed it, Nvidia chips. The media
- 4:01company Bloomberg traced these circular
- 4:03transactions and found over 800 billion
- 4:05dollars being shifted around in circles
- 4:07. This means that from the outside, it
- 4:09looks like gigantic growth. From the
- 4:11inside, however, it’s partly the same
- 4:13money just spinning around on a
- 4:14carousel. And the carousel has a second
- 4:17level, because the cloud revenue that
- 4:18Microsoft and Google are currently
- 4:20boasting about on the stock market
- 4:22comes, to a surprising extent, from
- 4:23just two customers. The major bank UBS
- 4:26calculated that OpenAI and Anthropic
- 4:28will account for a good quarter of
- 4:29Google’s cloud revenue this year and
- 4:32almost half next year. And according to
- 4:34analyst Citron, 69%of Microsoft’s
- 4:37cloud growth last year came from OpenAI
- 4:40alone. Without Anthropic, without
- 4:44OpenAI. Well, I have serious questions
- 4:46about that. So, in cal 2025, according
- 4:49to my own reporting about Open AI
- 4:51numbers, 69%of the year over year
- 4:53growth of Microsoft's intelligent cloud
- 4:55segment was actually from Open AI.
- 4:58Without that, it would have only grown
- 5:008%year over year, which is just
- 5:02inflation. The celebrated AI growth of
- 5:10these corporations is, therefore, to a
- 5:12large extent, money from two firms that
- 5:14pay for their own expansion with
- 5:16investor cash, partly provided by these
- 5:17same corporations. It’s as if a car
- 5:21dealer were to lend you the money for
- 5:22his own car, and if your bank hesitates
- 5:24with the loan, the dealer even vouches
- 5:26for you. On August 17th. Nvidia
- 5:28announced via a stock market filing
- 5:30that it would stand for up to 105
- 5:33billion dollars to ensure a gigantic
- 5:35data center can be built in Ohio for
- 5:37Open AI. It will be built and operated
- 5:40by SB Energy, a Softbank subsidiary in
- 5:42which Nvidia is simultaneously
- 5:44investing 1.5 billion, and it will be
- 5:46stocked exclusively with Nvidia chips.
- 5:49Open AI is leasing the entire facility
- 5:51for 20 years, and if Open AI cannot pay
- 5:53the rent, Nvidia is liable. So, the
- 5:55chip seller is vouching for the debts
- 5:57of its largest customer so that they
- 5:58can continue to buy chips. And to the
- 6:01obvious question of whether this isn't
- 6:03circular financing, Nvidia CEO Jensen
- 6:05Huang responded on X: No, Open AI is
- 6:07paying the rent. And that may be true,
- 6:09as long as Open AI can actually afford
- 6:11to pay that rent. At the same time,
- 6:12Open AI is currently preparing one of
- 6:14the biggest IPOs of all time. The goal
- 6:17is a valuation of one trillion dollars.
- 6:20And since July, we also know that Open
- 6:22AI has proposed to the US government to
- 6:24transfer 5%of the company to them,
- 6:26officially as a partnership for America
- 6:29as an AI hub. Some say you can also
- 6:32view this as: whoever has the state as
- 6:34a co-owner will be bailed out in an
- 6:36emergency. Because companies whose
- 6:39business speaks for itself don't
- 6:40actually need guarantees from their own
- 6:42suppliers or the state on board. And if
- 6:44you now ask yourself how this even
- 6:46works, how long this can keep going,
- 6:48and where this chain might eventually
- 6:50snap, then you naturally look at the
- 6:52weakest link. And in this case, there
- 6:55are two: namely, Oracle and Open AI.
- 6:57Let’s start with Oracle. There are
- 6:59rating agencies, like S&P for example,
- 7:01that evaluate how securely a company
- 7:03can repay its debts. In principle,
- 7:05it’s the credit score for
- 7:07corporations, and Oracle received a
- 7:09rating of BBB-in July. This is the
- 7:11lowest grade at which a company is
- 7:13still considered a secure debtor. One
- 7:16step lower, Oracle would officially be
- 7:17a risky borrower, and pension funds and
- 7:19insurance companies would no longer be
- 7:20allowed to lend Oracle money under
- 7:22their own rules. And the reason for
- 7:25this is that half of all future Oracle
- 7:27orders depend on a single customer,
- 7:29namely OpenAI. For this one customer,
- 7:32Oracle has increased its debt in one
- 7:34year from 85 to around 125 billion
- 7:37dollars. On top of that, the contract
- 7:39timelines don't match up at all.
- 7:41Because Oracle has leased these data
- 7:42centers for nearly 20 years. OpenAI, on
- 7:45the other hand, has only booked them
- 7:46for 5 years. If OpenAI doesn't renew,
- 7:49Oracle will be stuck with empty halls
- 7:50for 15 years, unless they find someone
- 7:52else. Financial market professionals
- 7:54have long since been hedging, and
- 7:56insurance policies that would pay out
- 7:58in the event of an Oracle bankruptcy
- 8:00are currently at an all-time high. The
- 8:03second weak link is OpenAI itself; in
- 8:05June, OpenAI's financial figures were
- 8:07released and confirmed by the Financial
- 8:10Times. 13 billion dollars in revenue,
- 8:1321 billion in operating losses. For
- 8:16every dollar OpenAI brings in, the
- 8:17company loses a dollar sixty. HSBC bank
- 8:21estimates that OpenAI will need to
- 8:23raise an additional 200 billion dollars
- 8:25externally by 2030 just to fulfill its
- 8:27own contracts. generating revenue model
- 8:39intelligence And the CFO announced to
- 8:51employees in August that OpenAI would
- 8:53be on the stock market by 2027. The
- 8:57money has to last until then, and in
- 8:59March 2027, Softbank—one of OpenAI's
- 9:01most important backers—has to repay a
- 9:0340 billion dollar loan of its own.
- 9:07Which means things are going to get
- 9:08pretty uncomfortable for them. OpenAI
- 9:11is also under significant pressure
- 9:13internally, as within just a few days
- 9:15in August, COO Brad Lightcap left after
- 9:188 years and sales chief Denise Dresser
- 9:21left after less than a year, shortly
- 9:23after employees sold a total of 7
- 9:25billion dollars 'worth of OpenAI shares
- 9:28. CNBC cites industry experts who call
- 9:31this a huge warning sign ahead of the
- 9:34IPO, because normally no one leaves
- 9:36voluntarily right before their own
- 9:38shares go public. And raising investor
- 9:41capital isn't as easy as it used to be,
- 9:43as evidenced by how aggressively OpenAI
- 9:45is now courting money and customers.
- 9:48For a joint vehicle with private equity
- 9:50firms, OpenAI is guaranteeing investors
- 9:52a minimum annual return of 17.5%for 5
- 9:54years. No one gives those kinds of
- 9:57guarantees if investors are lining up
- 9:58on their own. This means that as long
- 10:01as new money keeps coming in, the party
- 10:03continues, but if the cash flow dries
- 10:05up, the first domino falls, followed by
- 10:06the data centers, and then the cloud
- 10:08revenue of the world's largest
- 10:10corporations. And of course, one has to
- 10:12wonder, if it’s all so shaky, why is
- 10:14everyone participating? Nvidia,
- 10:16Microsoft, Google—they know the
- 10:18numbers much better than we do. Why are
- 10:20they still pumping hundreds of billions
- 10:22more into this merry-go-round? That is
- 10:24because the other side of the equation
- 10:26looks just as extreme as the debt side.
- 10:29The demand for AI is currently growing
- 10:31faster than for any technology before
- 10:32it. Just take a look at Anthropic. At
- 10:35the end of 2024, they were at one
- 10:37billion dollars in annual revenue, 9
- 10:40billion by the end of 2025, 47 billion
- 10:43in May 2026, and 65 by the end of July.
- 10:48No company in software history has ever
- 10:50grown as fast as Anthropic, and in the
- 10:52second quarter, Anthropic reported that
- 10:54for the first time, their operating
- 10:56income exceeded their expenditures.
- 10:58They still need billions from the
- 11:00outside because training the next
- 11:02models is so expensive, and they have
- 11:04secured 200 billion dollars in
- 11:05computing power from Google alone for
- 11:07this purpose. The difference from
- 11:09OpenAI, however, lies in the ratio,
- 11:10because Anthropic promised much less
- 11:12and is also generating significantly
- 11:13more revenue. And it is precisely this
- 11:15ratio that ultimately determines who
- 11:17survives a crisis. And this is not an
- 11:18isolated case either. On OpenRouter, a
- 11:21platform that allows you to use any AI
- 11:23model from any provider, usage has
- 11:25increased fivefold in 6 months. This
- 11:27means more and more people want to use
- 11:29AI for their use cases. And by the way,
- 11:32you have long been feeling this demand
- 11:34yourself, because 32 GB of RAM for your
- 11:36PC cost 80 € a year ago, and today
- 11:39you are at 400. This is because memory
- 11:41manufacturers are now putting almost 70
- 11:43%of their production into AI servers.
- 11:46Production for 2027 is even already
- 11:48sold out, and Samsung itself is warning
- 11:50of shortages until at least 2027. If
- 11:54you want to buy a PC sometime soon, you
- 11:55are indirectly paying for this AI
- 11:57expansion as well. That is obviously
- 11:59annoying for you, but it is a strong
- 12:00signal for our question. Bubbles burst
- 12:02when too much supply meets too little
- 12:05demand. But right now, it is the other
- 12:06way around. Demand is outstripping
- 12:09supply. So demand is extremely high,
- 12:11and that is the reason why everyone is
- 12:13joining in. The crucial question is
- 12:15just whether this money will also end
- 12:17up with the companies that are
- 12:18currently spending the 700 billion and
- 12:20promised the 1.4 trillion. And this is
- 12:22exactly where China comes into play.
- 12:24You could see how nervous the market is
- 12:26about this question in January 2025. A
- 12:28then-barely-known Chinese lab called
- 12:30DeepSeek released a model that could
- 12:32keep up with the best American models,
- 12:34supposedly at a fraction of the
- 12:36training costs. On the next trading day
- 12:39, Nvidia lost 17%of its market
- 12:40capitalization, meaning nearly 600
- 12:42billion dollars in market value in a
- 12:44single day. That was the biggest
- 12:47single-day stock loss in history at the
- 12:49time, and not because of any financial
- 12:50problems, but simply because the
- 12:52question suddenly arose as to whether
- 12:54you really need so many expensive chips
- 12:56for top-tier AI and whether you really
- 12:58have to rely on these American models.
- 13:00And that question has remained ever
- 13:01since. The American government tested
- 13:04DeepSeek's current model themselves in
- 13:06May and concluded that it is about 8
- 13:09months behind the US leaders. So, only
- 13:118 months. But in return, it is freely
- 13:14available. Anyone can download it and
- 13:16run it on their own server. You need
- 13:18the hardware, of course, but
- 13:19nonetheless. And in operation, very
- 13:22importantly, it costs 60 to 90%less
- 13:23than the models from OpenAI and
- 13:25Anthropic, depending on the task. And
- 13:28DeepSeek is not alone. Alibaba,
- 13:30Moonshot, and Jina AI are releasing
- 13:33similar models weekly for the same low
- 13:35costs. And that is precisely why the
- 13:39demand for Chinese models has grown
- 13:40extremely in recent months, because for
- 13:42most everyday tasks, a model that is 8
- 13:44months behind but costs a fifth is
- 13:46simply the better choice. You don't
- 13:49always have to take the newest Bugatti
- 13:50just to drive somewhere. Many companies
- 13:53are therefore already relying on and
- 13:55using Chinese AI models. On OpenRouter,
- 13:58the share of American models has fallen
- 14:00from 70%to 30%within a year. A year and
- 14:04a half ago, Chinese models there were
- 14:06still at around 1%. And if you look at
- 14:09the leaderboard on OpenRouter under the
- 14:11most used models, you actually see
- 14:12almost nothing but Chinese models now.
- 14:15I still see GPT-4o, Claude, and Llama
- 14:17here, and Nemotron down there. But
- 14:19otherwise, those are all Chinese models
- 14:21, and I've also listed a few examples
- 14:22of companies that use these Chinese
- 14:24models. Coinbase, for example, the
- 14:27largest crypto exchange in the US,
- 14:29switched its developers to Chinese
- 14:31models by default in the summer and
- 14:33halved its AI costs. With more usage
- 14:36than before. Cursor, one of the world's
- 14:39most famous AI programming tools or
- 14:41development environments, built its own
- 14:43model on a Chinese model, and in March
- 14:45of this year, there was a huge scandal
- 14:47because they initially hid the fact
- 14:49that they were using Kimi 1.5 Pro for
- 14:51it, but then someone noticed it, and
- 14:53everyone was shocked again that it was
- 14:55even possible—that Chinese models are
- 14:57so good that Americans are now secretly
- 14:59using them in the background. And
- 15:03Airbnb, for example, operates its
- 15:04customer service with Alibaba Qwen
- 15:06because, according to their boss, it is
- 15:07good, fast, and cheap. Nonetheless,
- 15:10there are of course some security
- 15:11concerns, but the models are all
- 15:13open-weight. That means you can host
- 15:15them yourself, which ensures no data is
- 15:16sent to China, and that is exactly what
- 15:18many companies are doing now. Chinese
- 15:20models have also been hosted in the
- 15:22Ollama Cloud for a long time now. And
- 15:24here we can see. For example, Qwen 2.5:
- 15:25You can use that here now, and the data
- 15:27doesn't end up in China. Or DeepSeek V3
- 15:29, a very good model, and there will
- 15:31also be many data centers in the EU
- 15:33that will host these Chinese models.
- 15:36And this is the point where the US
- 15:38companies' math falls apart, because
- 15:39the old tech strategy—conquer the
- 15:41market first, then raise prices, and so
- 15:43on—no longer works because we have
- 15:45cheap alternatives. And you could
- 15:47really see that in the pricing of
- 15:49American models as soon as a new AI
- 15:51model was released by the Chinese.
- 15:53OpenAI cut its prices by up to 80%at
- 15:56the end of July. Anthropic had
- 15:58announced a 50%price increase for
- 16:00September and canceled it again in
- 16:01August. Even Claude 3.5. For example,
- 16:05Anthropic's most powerful model was
- 16:07originally supposed to be available
- 16:09only via API after one month, meaning
- 16:11billing per token. But that was exactly
- 16:14when the latest Chinese models, like
- 16:16Qwen 2.5, were released, and Anthropic
- 16:17thought: "No, we can't do that now." We
- 16:19have to keep Claude in the regular
- 16:21subscription plans so that people
- 16:23continue to use and buy it. This means
- 16:25that the prices per request are falling
- 16:27instead of rising. And for us as users,
- 16:29that is of course good news. But not
- 16:31for a company that now has to earn back
- 16:331.4 trillion. And China is attacking on
- 16:36a second front, namely with AI chips.
- 16:38Nvidia once had a 95%market share in
- 16:41China. Today it is zero because the US
- 16:44banned the export of AI chips to China,
- 16:46so China is now building its own chips,
- 16:49and Huawei is even doubling production
- 16:51this year, with DeepSeek's new model
- 16:54already running on Huawei chips. The
- 16:57second-largest AI market in the world
- 16:59is no longer buying from Nvidia, and so
- 17:01Nvidia's growth depends all the more on
- 17:03the carousel from before. The four
- 17:05largest Chinese tech giants are
- 17:07spending a combined 100 billion dollars
- 17:09on AI this year. And that is only a
- 17:11fraction of what the Americans are
- 17:13spending. This means they are paying
- 17:15only a fraction of that, yet they are
- 17:17only 8 months behind the leaders. And
- 17:19that is exactly a huge reason why the
- 17:21entire valuation of these companies is
- 17:23so shaky. So, let's get back to the
- 17:25question of whether or not we are
- 17:26currently in an AI bubble. It must be
- 17:28said quite clearly: people are using AI
- 17:29, they are paying for it, and the
- 17:30numbers are growing every month. AI is
- 17:32also here to stay. The product itself
- 17:35is not a bubble, but what companies
- 17:37spend and promise doesn't match their
- 17:39revenue. OpenAI has signed for 1.4
- 17:42trillion and brings in 40 billion.
- 17:45Nvidia is essentially financing its own
- 17:47customers. Companies are borrowing one
- 17:49in every three dollars, which only
- 17:50works if almost nothing goes wrong in
- 17:52the next few years. And as we have just
- 17:54seen, quite a bit is already going
- 17:55wrong. So you could say the bubble is
- 17:58in the price, not the product;
- 18:00companies are overvalued and
- 18:01over-leveraged for what they earn today
- 18:04, while Chinese models are driving down
- 18:06the prices they hoped to catch up with.
- 18:09At some point, it will balance out
- 18:11again, either because revenues keep
- 18:13growing like with Anthropic, or because
- 18:15valuations fall. And this isn't a new
- 18:16pattern either. In the year 2000, the
- 18:19Nasdaq tech index lost 78%, Amazon
- 18:21stock over 90%, yet the internet didn't
- 18:24disappear back then, and neither did
- 18:26Amazon. Investors may have lost their
- 18:29money, but the technology remained, and
- 18:31it was the same story 100 years earlier
- 18:32with the railroads. Shareholders went
- 18:34bust, yet the tracks were still there
- 18:36and were used for another century. And
- 18:38this isn't just what I think. In July,
- 18:41an internal report from the US Treasury
- 18:43leaked, written for the Treasury
- 18:45Secretary and top financial regulators.
- 18:47It states that AI companies are
- 18:49currently much more deeply embedded in
- 18:51the economy than dot-com firms were
- 18:53back then, and that a crash would
- 18:55therefore hit stock markets, credit
- 18:56markets, and even power utilities. But
- 18:59it also says that the big AI firms are
- 19:01financially much healthier than the
- 19:04dot-com busts of 2000, which could
- 19:06cushion a crash. But publicly, the US
- 19:09Treasury naturally continues to promote
- 19:11the growth story and the big AI boom.
- 19:14So, in conclusion, let's look at the
- 19:15question of what exactly is going to
- 19:16happen now? How can things proceed from
- 19:18here? And, of course, no one can answer
- 19:20that for you right now. Neither can I,
- 19:22but there are basically three ways this
- 19:23whole thing can play out. The first way
- 19:26is a slow correction, I would say. I
- 19:28actually consider that quite likely.
- 19:30That means there won't be a big bang,
- 19:31there won't be a bubble that suddenly
- 19:33bursts, but rather the weakest
- 19:34companies and projects will simply fall
- 19:36away one by one. This means a portion
- 19:38of the planned data centers will simply
- 19:40never be built. Of those scheduled by
- 19:422027, 16%haven't even started
- 19:44construction yet. And a few providers
- 19:47that built everything on credit will
- 19:49likely go bankrupt, and AI stocks on
- 19:51the market will drop by 20 or 30%once
- 19:53or twice. Oracle, for example, even
- 19:55more so. This trend has already
- 19:58partially begun, because the Stargate
- 20:00project, which Trump announced in
- 20:02January 2025 with $ 500 billion, still
- 20:04has no staff today and isn't building
- 20:06anything itself. Oracle and OpenAI
- 20:09already halted expansion at the
- 20:11flagship site in Texas in March, and in
- 20:14the first quarter of this year alone,
- 20:16public protests in the U.S. blocked or
- 20:18delayed $ 130 billion worth of data
- 20:20centers. This means that at the end of
- 20:23this path, maybe a few big providers
- 20:25plus open models from China will remain
- 20:27, and the expansion will continue, just
- 20:29slower. Let’s move to the second
- 20:31possible path, and that is the chain
- 20:33reaction. It begins with a single event
- 20:35; for instance, if the OpenAI IPO fails
- 20:38or if a Chinese lab delivers the next "
- 20:40Deepsea" moment right beforehand,
- 20:42OpenAI won't get any fresh capital.
- 20:45Then OpenAI won't be able to pay its
- 20:47contracts. Then Oracle will lose half
- 20:49its orders. Then Nvidia will have to
- 20:51foot the bill for the rent in Ohio. And
- 20:53now the thought from the beginning
- 20:54comes back. Three-quarters of U.S.
- 20:56growth depends on this expansion; if
- 20:58this chain breaks. Then we're not just
- 21:00talking about a few tech stocks, but
- 21:02perhaps a recession that hits many
- 21:04people who might not even use AI or
- 21:06haven't written a single AI prompt. And
- 21:09that is exactly why I consider this
- 21:11path somewhat less likely, because a
- 21:13government whose growth depends on this
- 21:15expansion won't just stand by and watch
- 21:17the chain break, right? So, I believe
- 21:19they will definitely take their
- 21:20measures. And the fact that OpenAI
- 21:22offered the state 5%also fits into this
- 21:24picture for me. And the third path is
- 21:26what’s called "growing into it." This
- 21:28means revenues continue to grow. Demand
- 21:30remains extremely strong for American
- 21:32AI models, and eventually, these firms
- 21:34truly earn as much as they are
- 21:36currently valued at. According to
- 21:38Anthropic's figures, that is possible.
- 21:40But it is the only path where very
- 21:42little can go wrong over the next few
- 21:43years and everything has to play into
- 21:45American hands. So, what does all this
- 21:47mean for you concretely, and what do
- 21:49you do with it now? A financial
- 21:51YouTuber would tell you at this point
- 21:52which stocks you should avoid. I’d
- 21:54rather tell you what this means for
- 21:56your work with AI. Perhaps a small
- 21:58sentence on stocks anyway. I’m no
- 21:59financial advisor, but if an industry
- 22:02needs record-breaking IPOs just to pay
- 22:04its bills, the retail investor who gets
- 22:07in at the very end is rarely the winner
- 22:09. For your work with AI, however, the
- 22:11direction remains the same in all three
- 22:13scenarios, because models are getting
- 22:15better and prices per query are falling
- 22:17due to competition from China, open
- 22:19source, and more efficient chips. And
- 22:21even in the event of a crash, the data
- 22:23centers aren't just going to be torn
- 22:25down if an investor goes bankrupt. They
- 22:28will be sold and keep running, just at
- 22:30a lower cost. There are three specific
- 22:32things I would advise you to do now.
- 22:33First, build your automations so that
- 22:36you can swap out the AI model at any
- 22:38time. Don't make yourself dependent on
- 22:41a single provider. We saw how necessary
- 22:43that is back in June, when Claude 3.5
- 22:46was supposed to be shut off for
- 22:47everyone outside the US per government
- 22:50order, and Anthropic just turned it off
- 22:52for everyone for two weeks, and nobody
- 22:54knew what exactly was going to happen.
- 22:57And if your entire workflow relies on
- 22:59one single provider, you have the same
- 23:00problem as Oracle, just on a smaller
- 23:02scale. By the way, if you can swap your
- 23:05model, you can also do what many big
- 23:07companies are currently doing: offload
- 23:09standard tasks to a cheap, open-source
- 23:11Chinese model and only use the
- 23:13expensive one where it truly makes a
- 23:15difference. Second, be careful with
- 23:18long, expensive contracts for any AI
- 23:20platforms, because as you can see,
- 23:22things change daily and prices are
- 23:24falling extremely fast. This means a
- 23:26three-year contract signed today might
- 23:28be completely overpriced in a year. And
- 23:30third, and this is the most important
- 23:32point, in the end, it doesn't matter
- 23:34which model you use or if you are using
- 23:36the very best one. What matters is
- 23:39whether AI is being used in your
- 23:40company in a way that actually saves
- 23:42time, cuts costs, or generates revenue.
- 23:45This means it must be properly
- 23:46implemented within the company, and you
- 23:48may even need to completely rethink
- 23:50your own processes to do so. And that
- 23:52is exactly where many companies are
- 23:55currently failing; in a major survey,
- 23:57for example, where over 2,500 corporate
- 24:00decision-makers were polled, 74%said
- 24:02they had to shut down an AI agent after
- 24:04launch. And not because the model was
- 24:07too poor, but because the rules,
- 24:09processes, and oversight were missing.
- 24:11What’s scarce isn't the AI, but the
- 24:13ability to actually implement it
- 24:14correctly within the company. And
- 24:16whoever can do that, whoever rethinks
- 24:18processes and adapts accordingly, will
- 24:19be needed in every scenario, especially
- 24:21in a crash scenario, because that is
- 24:23exactly when companies watch their
- 24:25money. If you would like to learn more
- 24:27about this, you are of course welcome
- 24:28to drop by my community at any time.
- 24:30The link is in the video description.
- 24:31Here, we cover exactly how to really
- 24:33use AI in a corporate context and not
- 24:35just automate processes, but rethink
- 24:37them as well. And how can you approach
- 24:40all these topics, especially if you are
- 24:41not a programmer? We cover all of this
- 24:43very intensively here. That means if
- 24:44you are interested, you are always more
- 24:46than welcome. That is my assessment as
- 24:48of today. I hope you were able to take
- 24:49something away from this. Now, I would
- 24:51be very interested to hear your opinion
- 24:53on this and which scenario you think is
- 24:55the most likely. Feel free to write it
- 24:57in the comments so we can continue the
- 24:58discussion there. Otherwise, thank you
- 25:00very much for watching. And if you are
- 25:02specifically interested in the
- 25:03practical side, meaning automations
- 25:05that pay off even without
- 25:06trillion-dollar valuations, you will
- 25:07find plenty of content here on this
- 25:09channel. So feel free to take a look,
- 25:11and leave a like and a subscription so
- 25:12you don't miss any future content. I
- 25:14would say we will see each other again
- 25:15in the next video.
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