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War’s New Epoch Is Here - India Must Leap, Or Lose | Ctrl Alt Defence Ep 55 — Transcript

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0:12Hello and welcome to episode 55 of
0:15Control Alt Defense. Our guest today is
0:19someone we've been looking to bring on
0:21this podcast for a very long time and
0:24finally we've got him. Uh you may have
0:27heard him speak before. You may have
0:30read his words before. Uh I consider him
0:33and we consider him to be one of our
0:35most thoughtful military commentators.
0:38This is a general from the Indian army
0:42who has uh made it a habit of not just
0:46thinking about India's national security
0:48but very provocatively wondering about
0:51what it must become. And he's also made
0:54it a habit to reject
0:57institutional comfort and received
1:00wisdom about national security and given
1:04people a lot to think about. Now you may
1:07sometimes disagree with what he says.
1:10You might find some of the things he
1:12says uncomfortable because of the depth
1:14to which he goes. But there is no
1:17ignoring what left General Raj Shukla
1:20has to say. and it's my privilege to
1:21welcome him onto my podcast today. Uh
1:25thank you very much sir. General Shukla
1:27as most people know uh retired as the
1:30general officer commanding and chief of
1:31the army's training command. Uh he's a
1:34scholar warrior now a person who thinks
1:36very deeply about national security and
1:39believes very strongly in it. He's also
1:41as I understand it a member of the UPSC
1:43which makes me very happy because it
1:45means that our larger uh educational and
1:49administrative uh uh uh you know uh
1:52connective tissue in this country has
1:54someone like a Raj Shuklav at least part
1:56of the system. General Shukla welcome to
1:58control or defense.
1:59>> Thank you Shiff. Thank you for those
2:01kind words. Let me say two things before
2:03we get into the program. One is the
2:06these things that you said by way of
2:08compliments. See where does it come
2:10from? You believe me that I come from a
2:12tradition in the army where we have been
2:15constantly encouraged to think
2:18question and people think that the army
2:21is a you know an organization which is
2:23very regimented. It is not a fact right
2:27from the days I was a captain I've had
2:28people who encouraged me to think speak
2:31of course within certain bounds. So
2:33because you pay me that compliment I
2:35must say it is from the tradition I come
2:37from the Indian army sundur gi
2:39padmanaban such great minds
2:42subramanyam not from the army but I have
2:43seen these people at close quarters so
2:45we really you know owe it to national
2:47security to think honestly about it and
2:49the second point is let me say that I'm
2:51a great admirer of your show and why I
2:54tell you because I think one of the
2:55first shows which has brought depth to
2:57national security and we need many of
2:59these shows because of the times that we
3:01>> I thank you very much general Shukla,
3:03coming from you, I take that as a real
3:04compliment and in return I would say
3:06that my words are not flattery at all.
3:08I've and you know I've always been an
3:10admirer of yours and you've been on my
3:12show before, but
3:14>> I want to get straight to something that
3:17uh you know is uh is something that I
3:20know keeps you up at night
3:22>> and I want to start by asking you about
3:25this epoacle moment that you believe we
3:27are in currently. You believe that what
3:29we are in right now as far as our
3:31national security is concerned
3:33>> is a once in a centuries kind of affair
3:37that you're talking about. Why do you
3:38say that sir?
3:39>> Okay. So I know I was thinking for a
3:42while about this and I I've decided you
3:45know to sound the bugle from your
3:47platform so to speak and what am I
3:49saying? I'm saying you know we've been
3:52talking about drones AI these
3:54incremental technological changes or
3:56modernizational challenges but I think
3:59we are at a national security epoch
4:02globally so it's not mere chintan as
4:05this that man moment and why do I say it
4:09this moment is as significant as the
4:11gunpowder moment where you had heavy
4:14firearms and advanced artillery which
4:16transformed armies and states I think
4:18that was in sometime in the nth century.
4:20Then you had mechanization. I mean I
4:22grew up in that phase. I was
4:23commissioned into a self-propelled
4:25regiment where mechanization
4:28metamorphosed land warfare. We had the
4:30airpower moment which you know brought a
4:33new twist to operational art and then we
4:35had the nuclear age which you know
4:37brought in new metrics of deterrence and
4:39stability. But across 11 centuries four
4:42moments I am tempted to say that this is
4:45the fifth moment and it is huge. So
4:49that's the point and I I I want to make
4:50and it's manifestly visible in Ukraine.
4:53You see Ukraine is not only the largest
4:55I think the longest land war since World
4:57War I. I have been to Poland and to
5:00Europe a few times over the last one
5:02year and I find that it is the defining
5:05military laboratory of the 21st century
5:08in terms of technology, innovation,
5:11concepts, doctrines and and we'll come
5:13to that. It is the Walmart of defense
5:15technologies.
5:15>> Yeah.
5:16>> Epic Fury. I'll give you examples.
5:18Similarly, it it seems to reinforce the
5:20lesson. So, I'm now saying and I've been
5:23saying it before, but the the the this
5:26the central point of my thesis is that
5:28we are seeing such profound changes in
5:30the character of war and the business
5:32delivery. Business delivery means the
5:35mechanism of delivery is no longer
5:37Boeing and Loheed. It is these startups
5:39and I'll give you some examples. Palmaki
5:41is one prominent one. And therefore what
5:44is happening is that military
5:46institutions
5:47and strategic military ecosystems which
5:50were built for one era of warfare are
5:53confronted with another and so they are
5:56struggling to adapt. So it is
5:59principally an adaptation challenge and
6:02when you are at such a critical
6:04crossroad the decisive advantage flows
6:07not only from the sides that first
6:09possesses the new technologies that's
6:11very important and I've been saying it
6:13but
6:14>> the side that is quick to grasp the
6:16stakes the first to rethink the new
6:21concept of war uh the metrics of
6:23deterance and war fighting so as I said
6:25it's not just a modernizational
6:27challenge
6:28But it is we have to first grasp the
6:30moment uh and then rethink doctrines.
6:34I'm saying technology has arrived.
6:36Doctrines have not quite arrived. Not in
6:39the Indian setting at least. Even if you
6:41see in terms of great power transitions,
6:44great powers have declined not because
6:46they lacked courage or resources but
6:49because their institutional ideational
6:51structures that did so well in one era
6:54were unwilling or unable to adapt to
6:57another era and they continued refining
7:00yesterday's concepts which we are doing.
7:03Theaterization is a good example. Even
7:05as their adversaries were agile and
7:08flatfooted enough or fleeto-footed
7:09enough to adapt rapidly for the fight of
7:12the new era. This is it you know and
7:15just one last point that
7:18puts it beautifully.
7:28So the point I'm making it is as
7:30significant as that and you can see it
7:33in Ukraine epic fury you can see it in
7:35the first island chain and therefore
7:38this is the challenge for the Indian
7:40military ecosystem. So it's like a case
7:42Subramanya moment you know Subramanyam's
7:44Cargill review committee which which
7:47gave such pathbreaking recommendations
7:49that we are unable to
7:52uh implement them till today but this is
7:54far larger this whole drone AI bit and
7:57all. So that's the preamble and if you
8:00wish I can resource it with examples or
8:02in response to your question. No, 100%
8:04because I I the obvious follow-up
8:07question to that uh uh general and I
8:10thank you first of all for choosing this
8:12podcast to uh you know to talk about
8:15this
8:15>> let at least the debate start I really
8:17think it's one of those great moments
8:19>> let's start it right now I want to ask
8:21you where where is India in this I'll
8:23come to some of the other ideas from
8:25outside India but where is India in in
8:28this epoch that you're talking about
8:29>> so I don't think India has realized the
8:31the the depth the significance of the
8:34moment and we in bits and starts
8:36everybody says yeah we should get drones
8:38everybody says we need AI but it's just
8:41not about drones AI it's just not about
8:43technology for example our entire
8:45western frontiers we have armored
8:47divisions they were made for another era
8:50we need to rethink that this whole
8:52business of theization is what it is not
8:55about
8:57the character of air power has changed
8:59>> yeah drones missiles are complementing
9:02piloted air power. It's not piloted air
9:05power versus drones missiles. But if you
9:07have don't have drones and missiles to
9:09complement air power, I'm afraid you
9:11will be less than militarily ready. So
9:16it is this whole piece that has to you
9:17know fall in place whether by design or
9:21by default some very good things have
9:22happened. For example, in the last 10
9:24years today we have many startups and
9:25you would know them more than me because
9:27I see them all those guys on your show.
9:28server galaxy and
9:31new space and all that. So we've the
9:34good thing we've done is that we have
9:35created these startups that can build.
9:38We now need to make them scale you know
9:40to the next level. I mean the great
9:42example is Palmer Lakia. This guy till
9:4610 years back was playing with VR
9:48headsets for fun till he develops an
9:50interest in defense. Of course, he gets
9:52money from the CIA and all. And this CIA
9:54rolls out the YX44 Alpha Fury, which is
9:57an autonomous fighter jet by a startup
10:01and
10:03in 568 days. And now just look at the
10:06contrast. You have the HL chairman, I'm
10:09not making a personal point,
10:10institutionally whom you appoint at 58
10:13and he retires at 60. and you're looking
10:15at aviation which is such a you know so
10:18I'm saying this uh transformation at the
10:20rate of tinkering will not do we have to
10:23grasp the moment we have set some very
10:25good taken good steps EDSDMA startups at
10:29defense private sector I mean I think I
10:32saw him on your show AK203 that sharma
10:36now see I personally know SK Sharma he's
10:38a brilliant officer if you move SK
10:41Sharma to Bat Electronics Limited he's
10:43going to transform Bat electronics
10:44limit. He's one of those officers. But
10:46our system isn't quite geared to make
10:48those changes. But with if I give you
10:51examples from Ukraine, now the United
10:54States, the United Kingdom, China,
10:56precisely these things are happening.
10:58>> So that is why I say it's it's it's it's
11:01a huge moment.
11:02>> General, you talked about the example
11:05you took was of the the you know the
11:07mechanized units all across our western
11:10frontage.
11:11Literally all of India's defense
11:13procurement is analogous to that.
11:16Absolutely. You know, conventional power
11:19uh you know airframes, tanks, vehicles,
11:22guns, rifles, things like that. That's
11:25pretty much the currency of how we even
11:27talk about our national security in this
11:30country. And I and I dare say even in
11:32the media, I have to say that. I have to
11:33be honest about that because the media
11:35plays an important role in that
11:36conversation. So you're saying that it's
11:39a it's a complete mindset gap then.
11:42That's what I'm taking from what you're
11:43saying.
11:44>> So I I'm saying that we first need to
11:46get the ideation piece right.
11:48>> What do we need to do if it is such a
11:52moment? We need to ideate through it.
11:54I'll give you two examples. You pick up
11:56the last issue of the foreign affairs.
11:58It's on war. since the world is at war.
12:01But what really drew my attention was
12:04that out of 15 articles, there was just
12:07one article by a general, 14 were by
12:10civilians and they resonate with the
12:12military on squadron company tactics,
12:15deterrence, I mean across the whole uh
12:19gamut. So the point in is that in the
12:22Indian setting where are those civilian
12:24scholars who will question and push the
12:27military and therefore I say we need a
12:28case superman. I was a colonel when he
12:31was the head of the committee. I was
12:32amazed at the depth of his
12:34understanding.
12:35>> You know he was the first gentleman to
12:38propose a chief of defense start before
12:40the military. You know we need that kind
12:43of big thinking. And so the best example
12:46to drive home what I'm saying is
12:48Ukraine. And it's a very simple
12:50interesting story. So in February 2022
12:53when Putin attacks Ukraine, people
12:56forget Ukraine was without an air force
12:58or a navy. It was a weak, desperate
13:01country, not knowing what to do. And you
13:05also recall Zalinski going to Trump and
13:08Trump humiliating him all that. But what
13:11do they do? Since their strong point was
13:14technology, some of the technology geeks
13:16get together and create a system called
13:18delta which is nothing but AI enabled
13:22data analytics. It starts from that. So
13:24you have 10 to 12 data streams. They are
13:27fused into an intelligent stream and
13:31delta is plugged into a very versatile
13:34drone in inventory which has now really
13:36become here even more versatile. So
13:39things like surveillance drones and no
13:41FPV drones and heavy bomber drones. So
13:44they developed that and by fusing the
13:46two they create a digital killing web
13:50>> which means that from detection to kill
13:53the time today is about 10 to 12
13:55minutes. Now see what has happened in
13:57consequence is say I'm a field gunner
14:01field artery shiv is dead. So actually
14:04my whole lifetime is is is of little
14:07consequence today. Uh and there is a
14:10reason because the drones can pick up
14:12anything. Artillery has been pushed back
14:14by about 30 km. Tanks don't move which
14:18means maneuver has been eclipsed.
14:21>> Infantry was getting away for a while.
14:23Today infantrymen are picked up you know
14:25in about four to 5 minutes and brought
14:28down in 15 minutes. So this drone AI
14:32revolution is also lethal. I mean what
14:35it has killed 1.2 million people in the
14:38war. More casualties I think as much as
14:40World War II. 4500,000
14:45have died. 1.2 million is the other
14:47casualties. So this is a very lethal
14:50revolution. And look what it did in
14:52spider web.
14:54It went to a range of about 2,500 km. So
14:59today drones and AI they are not only
15:01close air support they give you a
15:04favorable air situation they give you
15:06strategic air power.
15:08>> Today it has become a strategic tool. I
15:10mean armored divisions were used to
15:12isolate Crimea. Today drones are doing
15:15it. They have hit those wild berry
15:17Amazon warehouses. You know Russia which
15:21was a gas station is queuing up for gas.
15:24So it is tactical operational strategic.
15:28The number of drones that are fired per
15:30day are 10,000. And why 10,000? Because
15:33they were restricted by drone operators.
15:36But today
15:38uh this remote control is giving way to
15:41algorithmic control which means instead
15:43of drone operators you have algorithms.
15:45So by next year the figure will be
15:4820,000. Now just look at dronery. This
15:51year, Ukraine is buying 8 million
15:54drones, more than the artillery they
15:56fired last year because it's more
15:58effective than the artillery. The
16:00Russians have fired about 50 60,000
16:02drones into Ukraine.
16:05>> America, which placed an order of 22,000
16:09odd drones and they've been able to
16:11deliver only 3,000. But now, here is a
16:13mind-boggling figure. You know how many
16:15unarmed drones the Chinese can churn out
16:17in a year? 1 billion. Which means that
16:21on those three aircraft carriers in
16:23Taiwan, you will have a million drones
16:26per aircraft carrier. Wow. Is that
16:28aircraft carrier going to survive?
16:30>> So if this is not the tank moment or the
16:33air power moment, which will it be?
16:36>> Yeah.
16:36>> So I'm you know in in in
16:39just in to conclude this first part. So
16:42today we need to birth a new concept. If
16:45this is how drones, AI, space,
16:47everything is coming together. What is
16:49our strategy on the western front? What
16:51is our strategy on the northern front?
16:53Because a new art and science has been
16:56born called dronery. And this dronery is
16:59effective in company squadron battles in
17:01operational art. It is changing the
17:04character of air power. You have to
17:05admit it. Um and look at the pace of
17:09this. You would have noticed uh Shiv in
17:13Ukraine over the last two months or I
17:15think two months back there was this
17:18dispute which developed between Fedorov
17:20the minister of defense and Syski. Now
17:22what was the basis of this dispute?
17:24Feedov was a technology enthusiast. His
17:27complaint was that Syski was a general
17:29like me as they usually are
17:30conservative. It was a battle between
17:32legacy systems and uh technological
17:36innovation. Zilinski is forced to sack
17:38Feedov.
17:40But the popular um notions in Ukraine
17:44were that they knew Feedov was right
17:47because Feedov was right. There was
17:49popular upsurge and now Suski had to go
17:52and both their replacements one of them
17:54the general is actually the guy who
17:57conceived spider web
17:59>> and the politician is a technology
18:02enthusiast.
18:03Much of the sackings of the 100 generals
18:06in China, much of it is for corruption.
18:08But a lot of it is also over
18:10non-preparedness for Taiwan technology
18:12deployment. These 12 generals who've
18:15gone in US 40 not been put on the
18:17promotion list. There is a huge fight
18:19about the drone initiative so on and so
18:21forth. So since it is a live issue,
18:25there will be institutional resistance.
18:27Yeah. I mean legacy platforms, old
18:29cultures will resist. But the very fact
18:32that there is a CMR churn in these major
18:35theaters at least suggests to me that
18:38this is a real moment. You have to, you
18:41know, to make the change, you have to
18:43overcome the um traditional resistance.
18:48Epic Fury. Just give me 30 more seconds.
18:51Look at this. There is not a military in
18:54the world which can project power two
18:55oceans away like the Americans do. I
18:57mean, absolutely fascinating. But the
19:00mighty US Navy, they've decimated 160
19:04Iranian ships rightfully as Trump
19:05claims. But why has it been so
19:07ineffective in this train because it is
19:09not small enough, agile enough,
19:12autonomous enough? Okay, the shahed has
19:16proven to be as lethal as a tomahawk.
19:20>> I mean, you know, we can give you many
19:22many figures.
19:23>> Now, what the Americans were hiding for
19:24a while now, it's plain that 16 American
19:27bases were annihilated. nuclear 40
19:30aircraft have been destroyed more than
19:33the Americans have lost aircraft since
19:35Vietnam. 25% of their Reaper fleet has
19:38gone and
19:41in trying to intercept these drones
19:43these shahed drones they have suffered
19:45what people say is a generational
19:48attrition of deterance.
19:50>> Those 3,000 odd 600 patriots and th
19:53which they are now to replenish will not
19:55be replenished before 2031.
19:58>> Yeah. Do you see Putin salivating over
20:00Ke because there are no patriots and
20:03similarly will Z sense a moment in
20:05Taiwan. So this is really of you know a
20:09great and one last point you remember uh
20:13Zalinski being humilated as I said by
20:15Trump what happened in epic fury Trump
20:18wanted the marops and the counter drone
20:20system which the great US military which
20:22he claims to have built didn't have and
20:24whom did he request? Zilinski eat humble
20:27pie. So you put all these things
20:30together, you have the mighty US
20:31military. And now what makes my point
20:34just last week there was a report from
20:36the CFR U
20:39which actually says this and there are a
20:41number of Pentagon leaks and I'm quoting
20:44>> that the US military is not militarily
20:47ready for a Taiwan contingency because
20:49it has failed to make the transition to
20:52precise lethal mass. The Americans are
20:55admitting this. So those great platforms
20:58like patriot thought Tomox they are good
21:01they are effective but when it comes up
21:03under these against these platforms
21:06>> like the shahid
21:07>> and one more thing that has you know not
21:09it's it's really not caught people's eye
21:11which I've been saying for a while
21:12>> we are also at a moment where lethality
21:16war-winning lethality is no longer
21:18coming only from hardware and weapon
21:21platforms but from software delta the
21:23Americans replicated Maven without Maven
21:26and Claude, epic fury would not have
21:28happened. Without Maven and Claude,
21:30Beduro would not have been picked.
21:33Swarming is not happening without Latis.
21:35And all these softwares have taken about
21:38a decade to build.
21:39>> Now if India is not building these
21:41softwares, I mean they may have started
21:44but with the same intensity, if you are
21:47not invested into the scales of drones,
21:49the AI and that will not happen unless
21:52we acknowledge that there is a new
21:54moment. Everybody has to, you know,
21:57adjust uh to this fit.
21:59>> General uh you know, you say field
22:01artillery is dead. You say um uh uh you
22:04know, you talked about the you talked
22:05about the tank and maneuver. I'm just
22:07I'm just simplifying because I'm I
22:09because I want to draw out some a little
22:10bit more about uh what I'm saying
22:14all of India's procurement right now
22:18TJ fighters you know there's all this
22:20conversation about the AMA and the Rafal
22:23and uh uh uh you know wherever you look
22:26in terms of procurement uh it's it's not
22:29great news you know we've got too few
22:31submarines we've got too few squadrons
22:33we've got no artillery to speak of for
22:36the last I I don't know how many decades
22:39are you saying that the current
22:42procurement
22:44activity that is on in the country
22:46whether it is aircraft whether it's
22:47helicopters whether it is guns whether
22:49it's tanks whether it's uh uh you know
22:53submarines ships etc there should be a
22:55rethink on those as well
22:57>> abs so
22:58>> and can we rethink those
23:00>> we have no option do we have an option
23:02see if I am right we have
23:03>> cancel some of those you're saying
23:04>> no no I'm saying what so let me just
23:06elaborate on it. Uh do we need the
23:09javelin? Of course we do. I mean long
23:11the LCLAC have served that you need the
23:13you need the javelin. But tomorrow when
23:15the javelin is pitted say with an
23:17adversary like China has has invested
23:19deeply into the drone AI revolution, the
23:22javelin will not be of much use. So the
23:24point really is this. If I am right and
23:28that's the point if I and those who
23:30think then me are right I like me are
23:33right
23:33>> then budget 27 and I'm making this
23:36assertion we are roughly spend two lakh
23:39crores on modernization so one lakh
23:42crores can go to the legacy systems I
23:44mean you cannot rule them out like the
23:45Rafal they are all important but at
23:47least one lakh cr if it is not being
23:50spent on data readiness cloud infra
23:52algorithmic warfare drones counter
23:55drones I I mean LEO skyroot one
23:57satellite we should have 150 shiv or
23:59you're going to get nothing software
24:02development and deployment cyber
24:04robotics then we are preparing for the
24:06last war and not the next and why do I
24:08say it's a moment beyond the military
24:10and the mod because our larger strategic
24:13thinkers in India have to
24:15>> come out and say
24:16>> you talk about this a lot civil military
24:17fusion
24:18>> and so if I am right then you have to
24:20make the swivel if I am wrong or if I'm
24:23not right enough continue the the in the
24:26old fashioned but it is a moment we have
24:28to take a call
24:29>> and if I am right if it is this huge
24:32national security moment and if I see
24:34Raja Mahun says hard power is also
24:36becoming returning as the central
24:38organizing principle about geopolitics
24:40then even 1.98% of your GDP on defense
24:44is inadequate we have to take a call
24:47>> if militaries all over the world are now
24:50spending 5% 6% I mean they're not fools
24:54Trump $1.5 trillion. Now I know we can't
24:57be America in one go but that is why it
25:00is the moment we have to see that do we
25:03need to make these swivels in terms of
25:05investments and all this kind of stuff
25:08also cultural corrections I mean I know
25:10how conservative militaries are and for
25:13good reason. So this these conversations
25:16have to grow. They have to be debated.
25:19But militaries have made transitions in
25:21the past. I have seen those transitions
25:22you know from uh to mechanization
25:26other kinds of technology. But the point
25:28is this is a moment bigger than that. It
25:31is beyond the military. It is strategic
25:33military. We need to see do we need is
25:37this not the time to invest more on
25:38defense. All these issues that I have
25:41spoken of they cannot come from just the
25:43military. You need minds like Seram. I
25:45mean that day I saw media headlines the
25:48Servam CEO saying that give me $10
25:50billion and I'll get to Frontier AI. I
25:52mean why can't we give him $10 trillion?
25:55It just cannot be incremental.
25:58The problem with our budget is that we
26:00look at it from an accountant's lens.
26:02Revenue capital that's not the way to
26:04look at budgets.
26:05>> Modernizing weapons.
26:06>> Yes. In this if it is the moment and
26:09that is why I'm throwing up this issue
26:10for debate. And this issue I'm throwing
26:12up after a great deal of reflection 6 to
26:158 months. So I'm pretty sure that you
26:17know I my convictions are there but of
26:19course they could be wiser minds than
26:20mine. I'll give you one more example to
26:22tell you how this is. July in Ukraine we
26:26had the battle of the Maya corridor. In
26:27fact Samir Jooshi written a lovely piece
26:29on that. See what happened in the Maya
26:31corridor. The Russians said all right so
26:35these Ukrainians are very good with
26:36drones and ubiquitous sensors and all
26:38but see the tank is still glorious. So
26:41for three after three years of
26:43preparation um shv they on the T90s they
26:47created what is called the arena M. It
26:50is a hard kill system with 12 anti-FPV
26:53missiles and with a great radar
26:56>> and they said after 3 years we are ready
26:58and there was a certain objective I
27:01can't pronounce it about 40 km in depth
27:04and with new tactics arena M tanks the
27:07Russians said we'll get to that
27:08objective the distance was 40 km and in
27:12the 3 years the Ukrainians had refined
27:14the drone AI concept so they had
27:16ubiquitous centers which had the ability
27:18to operate in simultaneous depths
27:21>> and they had a battery of drones,
27:24surveillance, FPV, light drones, heavy
27:26bomber drones. Now to cut a long story
27:29short, this offensive of 40 kilometers,
27:34Ukrainians believing in sensors, drones,
27:36what they call uh persistent robotic
27:39overwatch, the whole battlefield being
27:41watched by robots, and the Russians
27:43saying tanks, but with ArenaM anti-FPV
27:46missiles, dispersed tactics and at 6 km
27:51the offensive peters out.
27:53>> Gone. Because and there is a reason
27:56because while each of those arena M
27:59systems was effective the missiles fired
28:02they brought down 12 FPVs but precise
28:05mass there was always a 13th 14th FPV to
28:08take down the tank
28:10>> and at 6 km it takes them down and then
28:14it hunts them to their decimation. So
28:18the end is brutal. So once again,
28:22exquisite platforms, precise mask. I
28:24must also tell you that in Ukraine
28:26today, TRDOK, the US Army Training and
28:29Doctrine Command has fielded two to 300
28:32people
28:33>> who are studying what's happening on a
28:34day-to-day basis. UK,
28:36>> we are not doing it for some diplomatic,
28:39you know, perhaps some point of
28:41signaling to the Russians or
28:42>> Russians. But but but these are the
28:44issues. So I mean on each metric that
28:47you see uh look at robotics I mean if
28:50robotics is the future Kurban peninsula
28:53in Ukraine
28:54>> we are still struggling with
28:56theaterization they had integrated
28:58autonomy
29:00uh maritime mother ship releasing an
29:03underground vehicle which is you know
29:06led by AI to its dispositions that
29:08assaults it with robotics. So you have
29:11now integrated
29:13uh uh autonomy autonomous platforms we
29:17have not been able to integrate uh
29:20across the three services and so if the
29:22robotics are the future look at this
29:262024 I don't have the data for 2025
29:29China turns out 2.35 lakh industrial
29:32robots USA 32,000 Germany 26,000 how
29:37many do we have China this year is
29:40manufure facturing 100 robotic dogs each
29:42with four anti-tank missiles.
29:45>> So the game is just getting faster, more
29:47sophisticated, more complicated and all
29:51of them have premised their doctrines on
29:54the acknowledgement that a new era has
29:56evolved. You know, you study Z, I
29:59haven't seen a politician who's most
30:01more impatient with his military. He
30:03keeps saying technology, robotics, AI.
30:06you know when they created the strategic
30:07support force 8 n years back its
30:10principal job was to infuse AI through
30:12the military I used to wonder why so I
30:16mean there is a lot of churn and to me
30:18on all evidence Ukraine epic fury I've
30:21given you I've told you of the Pentagon
30:23reports China so the global conversation
30:27is about acknowledging this moment
30:29making the transition
30:30>> so I think we do need to attend to this
30:34very carefully you talk a Manhattan
30:36moment, General.
30:37>> You talk about India needing a Manhattan
30:39moment and I love that phrase because it
30:41instantly conveys the urgency of and the
30:44importance of what you're talking about.
30:46>> So, man,
30:47>> about software and AI giving India some
30:50kind of a big military leap because the
30:51house is on fire.
30:52>> Yeah. you know and I
30:54>> so at a month one month one month one
30:55month one month one month one month one
30:55month one month one month one month a
30:56month back I think at one of these uh
30:59events of chakra news I made that point
31:01about the need to launch a technological
31:04trinity AI algorithmic warfare and an
31:07autonomy but that was a technological
31:10argument since then I have kind of
31:12refined my worldview to say that it is
31:16beyond technology I now feel that the
31:19technology has arrived but the doctrines
31:21are lacking rethinking
31:23and these concepts to rethink them you
31:26need some personalities like Sundar G or
31:28Subramanyam who will put them into the
31:30air our strategic military communities
31:33the framework perhaps the prime
31:35minister's office the NSA must take this
31:38have a debate for over four weeks and do
31:41then see that do we need to make a
31:43larger leap and why I called it a
31:45Manhattan moment was that it World War
31:48II um
31:52uh you had these scientists, you had the
31:56military, you had the industry and you
31:58had academia. Scientists of the caliber
32:01of Albert Einstein.
32:02>> Yeah.
32:03>> So the point I'm making is that national
32:05security today also needs a dose of
32:08talent. I'll give you two examples. So
32:10three weeks back the Chinese Singua
32:12University they hired an American Muslim
32:15called Omaragi.
32:16>> Yeah. Omar Yagi Shiv is a Nobel laureate
32:20in chemistry. Nobel laurate. And why do
32:23they pick him up? To head the department
32:27of AI for advanced materials in Singua
32:31University which is deeply integrated
32:33with the PLA. Now this is what people
32:35are doing advanced materials that kind
32:38of stuff.
32:40uh Stanford
32:43you know has these VCs coming in from
32:46the Silicon Valley I believe for
32:48military startups or those with a
32:50military orientation they have created a
32:53pre idea fund what is pre idea fund they
32:56pick up 12 of the brightest students in
32:58Stanford and say Shiv you are a bright
33:01student they will give you $2 billion
33:03and say pre idea
33:06>> before you have an idea $2 billion if
33:08you make a company call us military
33:10company if you don't forget about it
33:12knowing fully well that those 12 minds
33:15are you know of such caliber and such
33:17resolve that 10 of them will churn out
33:19those companies palaki so this is the
33:22Manhattan moment it is grandeear it is
33:25investments it is technology coming
33:27together you know and see there is a
33:30larger strategic design behind all that
33:32we heard of the rare earth's jokes
33:36now three weeks back I read somewhere
33:38that out of the 1,900 American weapon
33:42systems
33:4480,000 components
33:46either their materials or some product
33:49or some actuator comes from BG. Can this
33:52be without design?
33:54>> So last time I believe when Trump
33:57publicly choked over Herrors the private
33:59calls were these from Boeing Loheed and
34:02all this so that our weapons will
34:04collapse. So you see this whole thinking
34:07around science, technology, academia
34:10coming together. So it is a Manhattan
34:13moment in that. So you call it a
34:14Manhattan moment, you call it a tank
34:16moment.
34:17>> But something huge is happening
34:19>> and if from your platform I can even
34:22unleash this conversation that at least
34:24listen to what I'm saying. If something
34:26huge is happening, we need to respond.
34:28It cannot be my phrase is it cannot be
34:30transformation at the rate of tinkering.
34:32>> Yeah. It has to be transformation at the
34:34rate of transformation.
34:35>> So, so I'm going to push you a little
34:37then since since we're most definitely
34:40unleashing a debate through this
34:41podcast, General to ask you uh what
34:45specific
34:47institutional or other changes are
34:49required. We've talked a little bit
34:50about procurement, but I want to leave
34:52that out because that seems to be the
34:54easy bit. I'm talking about, you know,
34:56you talked about she being a very
34:58impatient man with his military. you
35:01know that brings in political leadership
35:04and will uh uh you talked about the
35:07national security conversation. You
35:09talked about the budget. You gave a very
35:11specific example about that. Give me a
35:13give me General Shukla's prescription
35:17ahead of 2030 say of what you say you
35:21think needs to be changed but specifics
35:24specifics of what specific Yeah.
35:26Absolutely good challenging
35:28>> or what this Manhattan moment needs to
35:29be if we are to grasp it.
35:31>> Absolutely. So immediately we have to
35:34have this debate about whether or not it
35:37is a new era in warfare.
35:40Yeah. In India. See I hear these things.
35:43Oh let's not pick American concepts. Let
35:46certainly not. You study the whole world
35:49evolve a uniquely Indian concept.
35:53But you have to acknowledge the changes
35:55that are happening across the globe and
35:56so do this it the studies can be done in
35:59three four weeks nothing longer than
36:01that and I'm not saying that people are
36:03not conscious about I mean say I know
36:04general rajas well he's aware of it
36:06general was aware but to piece this
36:09whole thing together for example if
36:12software innovations are being delivered
36:14in two weeks in the front line at the
36:16front line hardware innovations in four
36:19weeks and this is a fact if you speak to
36:20anybody you while procure Procurement
36:23for legacy platforms will work through
36:24the DPP mode. Procurement for software
36:27cannot happen here. It has to move to
36:30the battlefront. These kind of changes I
36:32mean the defense secretary has to
36:33grapple with this and we need swift and
36:36revolutionary institutional
36:38transformation.
36:40So our track I mean I've been always
36:42arguing that the first joint command
36:44should be our track unless you have
36:45joint and things. So our track should be
36:47told to roll out this. If this is a fact
36:50what are we looking in terms of
36:51strategizing track is the army training
36:53>> army which training and doctrine command
36:55so which does all this so we have to get
36:57into the adaptation challenge you know
37:00that is first and now a whole lot of
37:02things doctrine force design leader
37:05education I mean by the way it's not all
37:07doom I was the USI has a you know annual
37:10essay competition so this time it was an
37:12AI
37:13>> so when those 37 essays were sent to me
37:15to check I thought yeah these guys don't
37:17I was amazed
37:19So there I think this was a younger lot.
37:21So the younger middle lot knows exactly
37:23what's happening. I'm not saying that
37:25the older lot doesn't but perhaps the
37:27older lot has the challenge of putting
37:29into effect. I mean many people would be
37:31wanting to do it but the way these you
37:34know institutions work they have to
37:36adapt to this new thing. So leader
37:38education we have to see what are the
37:41precise operational lessons do we need
37:44to exploit. So I'm saying the LC and the
37:46LAC are ideal country to turn into that
37:50drone AI revolution. This is precisely
37:52what we want and we need but we need to
37:54scale it up. You know talk in terms of
37:56lacks and all. So here I'm saying 35,000
38:00crores give it to the western army
38:01commander or one of the commanders in
38:03the northern front give him two IFAS two
38:05startups which have matured and say by
38:0927
38:11end five lakh drones
38:14another army commander by 27 end meupops
38:18counter drones let me give you one more
38:21thing I'm a gunner so the dali has a
38:23lovely topchi exercise which has been
38:24about fire all these years
38:25>> I've been to one of those So March 27,
38:28why shouldn't we say no more guns? I
38:31want to see drone power. This is how you
38:33set standards and they'll do it. Air
38:36Force does this lovely excise in poker
38:38every year. Next year it should be about
38:40drones missiles. See this drones
38:42missiles is a very serious argument and
38:44I want to make it on your platform. If
38:46you see the way things have evolved over
38:48the last two to three years, to me it
38:50appears that given the current state of
38:54air defense and the character of air
38:56power without stealth platforms,
38:59>> you cannot operate deep in contested
39:02envelopes. So what we saw in Synindur
39:05was standoff targeting which was very
39:07good but standoff. If you notice here
39:09Dan Kaine after 10 days in epic fury he
39:12says we have we are now moving from
39:15standoff to stand in targeting that
39:17means from Tam tomahawks to JD dams but
39:20now they are back to standoff targeting
39:22because the so I'm saying if you cannot
39:25do standin targeting without stealth or
39:27even with stealth with great precaution
39:32the only option is drone missile force
39:34which gives you all those options as I
39:36said from close air support to strategic
39:38air power. So drone missile force to
39:41complement piloted air power. That's the
39:43smart way forward. If it were not, why
39:46have countries all over the world now
39:48invested in drone? Even Pakistanis have
39:50come up with a army rocket force. We are
39:52still hesitant. I'm told the approvals
39:54have come but the pace is not happening.
39:56So it's still a fight. It's still a
39:58fight. Now this is also a time for
40:00statesmanship. You know I'll give you
40:02one great example here. There's I wonder
40:04if you heard of General SK SA. General
40:07Eski Sa when I was a kaman war college
40:10came to speak on HDO this was preced
40:13days CDS has not been appointed and he
40:15was in the gurkas so he was sitting next
40:17to me I was there and somebody asked him
40:20about a CDS you know we should have had
40:22one or not so general sar said of course
40:24we should have had a CDS and I thought
40:26he'll say we should have had a CDS and
40:27the first CDS should have been field mic
40:30show that's the general to my utter
40:32amazement and while I disagree with him
40:35he said yes we should have had a serious
40:37but in my view the first serious should
40:39have been a chief martial law
40:42because he was and he went on to you
40:43know substantive and all that I disagree
40:45with him but the ability of people like
40:49him to rise above tribalism is the is
40:52what we need most now
40:53>> amazing
40:54>> I mean I can be a great artillery man
40:56but I have to realize that I'm
40:57challenged today so it is so this is
41:00what needs to happen you know a
41:02doctrinal debate we need to surge ahead
41:04in the talent race I gave you the
41:06example of Omariagi. I gave you the
41:08example of uh pre idea fund. Haven't
41:12five Indians I think around the same
41:14time they've won the gold medal in the
41:16physics Olympiad. Look at those minds.
41:19Why should DRDO not be allowed to get
41:21them at a salary of 10 lakhs?
41:23>> Yeah. Office of the CDS. I mean this is
41:25how things are going to happen. But our
41:27systems are such
41:34these are the leaps of faith. These kind
41:36of changes that we need which everybody
41:38is making.
41:40Innovation has to be taken to the front
41:42lines and trenches. It cannot keep
41:44happening in Bangalore and one seminar
41:46and so and I and I gave you an example.
41:49What has also happened is that the
41:51industrial base has got integrated with
41:54the battlefield. You see companies in
41:56Ukraine, Alex Karp doing the stuff
41:59there, producing the products there.
42:00Alex Karp is a fascinating story. Alex
42:02Karp, when Ukraine breaks out, I'm told
42:05he walks,
42:07>> drives across Poland to meet Silinski.
42:11And to cut a long story short, Zilinski
42:13doesn't meet him. And finally, when he
42:14meets him, he says, "Mr. President, all
42:17I want from Ukraine is the data, and I
42:20will give you the products free." And
42:22what has he done? He has taken that data
42:24and he's created Palunteer.
42:26>> Yeah.
42:27>> Now those are the kinds of
42:29entrepreneurial moments that you need
42:31even in the Indian context and see if
42:34Ukraine is threatened. I cannot think of
42:36a country which has a grimmer threat
42:38calculus than ours.
42:39>> Yeah.
42:40>> 450 billion is the military differential
42:42with China. Look what's happening on the
42:44eastern horizons with the packed 500
42:46ship navy coming to the IU. So for all
42:49these reasons, if this is not the
42:51moment, which will it be?
42:52>> Yeah. No, so the house is on fire. I
42:54mean that's not not even an
42:56exaggeration. So then I want I I I have
42:58one more question about the
43:00institutional roadblocks that you see
43:02General and then I want to go because
43:04you know you did say uh it's not all
43:06doom. There is good news as well. There
43:08are some things but it can't be
43:09tinkering. It has to move beyond that.
43:11And I and I'm very interested in your
43:13answer to that question. But I still
43:14want to uh ask
43:18why isn't that leap of faith happening?
43:20Uh all of the things you mentioned
43:22what's happening in eastern Ladak is
43:24still you know it's not a shooting
43:26standoff but it's still a standoff even
43:29as we speak. Uh the Indian Ocean you've
43:32got the the the Mecca pact that's
43:34happened now which has its own dynamics.
43:37I mean it's it's complicated but there
43:39are more dynamics there. So I am
43:41wondering why if everything is so
43:45perfect for this leap of faith and it's
43:47imperative right now we don't have a
43:49choice why isn't it happening so let me
43:52give you some example from so when I was
43:54the army commander I made a very strong
43:56argument for our track becoming the lead
43:58in thinking and to me it was entirely
44:00logical unless see national security has
44:03three components ideation action and
44:06narration now action is the centerpiece
44:09there's no doubting
44:10But without ideation, no action is going
44:12to happen. And I was saying I'm an army
44:15commander. I had 35 left and generals
44:17under me. 35 all doing trading. I said
44:21let's delegate training to them and our
44:23track should get refashioned as the army
44:25futures command in the United States
44:28which looks 10 years hence sets the
44:30doctrines and all that. So it was
44:32debated a paper was moved and then for
44:34some reason they said ab I mean that is
44:36the Indian system but so this is why
44:40things don't get everybody seized of it
44:42I mean the CDS I can tell you I was DGPP
44:452 days before this announcement it was
44:48being sabotaged many people said
44:52it happened because of political will so
44:55this piece also is beyond the military
44:57it needs you know a case of why look at
45:00the submanum committee reforms. Why were
45:02those so significant? Firstly, it had
45:03somebody of the stature of silver. Now,
45:05tell me sh who gives you this argument?
45:07Which civilian gives you this idea? Look
45:09at the arguments he gave for theater
45:11commands and DIA. He said, see you guys,
45:14you are stuck along the LCAC. You need
45:17to lift your gaze beyond. How right was
45:19he? Myanmar, Bangladesh, West Asia. I
45:22mean, Iran is closer to India than to
45:24Israel, but we are trained not to do
45:26that. And then he said you need a DIA
45:30who will shape military diplomacy and
45:32intelligence in the region
45:35two. And how does it get linked to
45:38military diplomacy? Because this DIA in
45:41concert with the theater commanders will
45:43take care of stabilities beyond before
45:46they come to your shores. How
45:47farsighted?
45:48>> Amazing.
45:49>> Amazing. And a civilian case. I've heard
45:52this argument from him and then for all
45:54kinds of reasons we said in DIA joina he
45:56will look at int from JNK I mean all
45:58these things happen the theater commands
46:01is just not in our air power argument
46:03it's about military diplomacy and see if
46:05you don't do it somebody else will
46:09I mean suddenly he's become kissing and
46:11we do not even have a three star in
46:13ipecom and in sentcom so India needs to
46:17think big and it is in many areas as you
46:19say uh we are what the fourth largest,
46:22fifth largest economy. There's always
46:24some controversy, but we are there some
46:25s.
46:26>> The Loi Institute says we are number
46:28three in comprehensive national power.
46:31You go to the ASP technology tracker,
46:33China and USA are way ahead but we are
46:35the distant third in many domains. So I
46:38make this case who's above us but China
46:40and uh US. So if I make a larger
46:42argument, what we really need to do is
46:44invest in deterrence and these kind of
46:46measures so that we have a peace
46:48dividend for two decades so that the
46:50country can grow. Our biggest challenge
46:53is to navigate our rise between a
46:56challenged hedgeman and a risen
46:58challenger.
47:00And much of that lies in acknowledging,
47:04realizing and making the most of moments
47:07like these. In fact, I say that if we do
47:10all this, I'm making a case for budgets,
47:12but it's not all about budgets. If we
47:14do, if we had presence in the LEO, if we
47:16had something like Claude,
47:20if the what do militaries do? They
47:22expand political options. So tomorrow,
47:25correct?
47:25>> If we decide to pick up H, which will be
47:28a political decision, we can do it. But
47:30unless you are invested in these
47:32domains, you will not be able to do it.
47:35So that is why it is important. I am
47:36overall making a case for deterance, not
47:38for war fighting. Deterance by doing
47:41these smart things. China is not an
47:43irrational player. If it sees strength
47:45in you, it will not lift a finger. If it
47:48sees weaknesses, it'll be tempted to
47:50move. And China is not tucked away in
47:53Latin America. In fact, all the things
47:55that I said about the drone AI moment so
47:57on and so forth, why China has a lot of
47:59problems, those 100 corrupt generals,
48:01this that if there is one country which
48:03has seized that moment, it is China.
48:04American admission.
48:06>> Look at Z. I'll make this last point to
48:08you. 10 12 years back when I was
48:10commander, high command wing, we did a
48:12study on China. Z used to visit infantry
48:16schools 2 days, artillery schools 3
48:18days. As an army commander, I couldn't
48:20find time to spend 2 days in infantry
48:22school. He was nursing the PLA. And
48:26because he has nursed the PLA with all
48:28these kinds of technology, rocket force,
48:30all those kinds of things, he's so
48:32disappointed in his progeny who are, you
48:35know, either not not up to the task or
48:38are indulging in all kinds of silly
48:40corruptions. So for all these reasons, I
48:42mean they just go to reinforce that
48:43whole point that this is far beyond
48:46military. It is far beyond defense. It
48:48is a it needs a national security
48:51awakening of a kind because
48:54>> you know today we are in the big league.
48:56The consequences of inaction will be
48:58brutal. Tell us the good news uh general
49:01and and I'm not saying any of this is
49:03bad news. It's it's it's it's it's
49:05something that has unleashed the debate
49:06which is very important but but
49:09obviously this is a real real challenge
49:11for India. Uh you know this is not small
49:13and you've called it an epoch right an
49:15epocal moment a Manhattan moment.
49:20What about what you see in the country
49:22right now now gives you hope that we are
49:25capable of making that leap. You've
49:27talked about the startups for a moment.
49:29uh uh uh you know politically speaking
49:32this is a government that has in in some
49:35instances shown political will. The CDS
49:38is one small example of it. Uh uh in in
49:41other cases as well but this is a large
49:43and chaotic country. You know it best.
49:46You've been in uniform for so long.
49:49What gives you hope that this leap is
49:51possible in India?
49:52>> All the hope. In fact she have a strong
49:55hunch that it will happen. And I'll tell
49:57you why for three four reasons. That's
49:58really good to hear
49:59>> and I'm no I'm telling you why and see
50:01let's give people their due where they
50:04deserve it.
50:06>> The CDSDMA was a game changer. I have
50:10seen it being
50:11>> Department of Military Affairs. I'm just
50:13using all the full forms because our
50:15listeners and viewers may not
50:16>> I have seen how this on endeavor was
50:19sabotaged repeatedly.
50:21So it was a great act of political faith
50:24that must be acknowledged. CDSDMA was
50:27more powerful than the American Barry
50:28Goldwater Nicholls
50:31one ata in defense and here I must say
50:34it plainly this is the vision of the
50:36honorable prime minister when he first
50:38said he came to codia and he said key
50:40release the forces of innovation energy
50:43and enterprise from the scourge of
50:46process and procedure namok jal
50:49>> now today after 10 years all these
50:51startups galaxy serv new space punan
50:54third itch
50:56These are huge moments ship when I was
50:58commanding the Baramola division. You
51:00know our men they would rush after te to
51:03pick up that AK-47 because they didn't
51:06want Indian rifle
51:09or in a critical moment. This is how
51:11important these things are. When I was a
51:13co I was commanded in heartley regiment.
51:15I still remember I went fresh on taking
51:18over all the enthusiasm. I went and my
51:21regiment was doing core shooting. So
51:22those 18 guns were deployed and six
51:24seven guys were sitting on the layer
51:26seat and shooting and the rest were
51:27remotely. So I asked my subar major I
51:30said he saidm seriously tell memian
51:39because the men had developed their own
51:42compact with the kind of stuff they were
51:44getting. So I told him drill he said
51:46drill sub layer seat
51:51when I went out of immaturity I went to
51:53my tent and I was having lunch and boom
51:55boom boom you know some people got
51:58injured but the point I'm making is look
52:01how important indigenization is when you
52:03have your own weapon your own ammunition
52:06that belief that trust now these are
52:09real great things you ask these startups
52:11they are very grateful So the edifice
52:15has been laid now to give them orders,
52:18orders and more orders. So as I said to
52:21from bill to scale. So actually my
52:25summary is this that we are at a moment
52:28which is beyond India. It's a national
52:30security epoch.
52:32>> The edifice perhaps has been laid in
52:34some areas. CDSDMA if I may make a
52:37personal observation. Rajasan is a
52:39bright guy. So is Rajiv Gay. I know them
52:41personally. They are the best suited to
52:44make these changes. In any case, can
52:46they escape these changes? We must help
52:48them. Everybody must help them. The
52:50startup ecosystem is brilliantly poised.
52:52The private sector, I mean, I have seen
52:53that Adani manufacturing. I have seen
52:56nothing of this in my career. These are
52:58brilliant steps. You need these kind of
53:00people, national champions and all that.
53:03But we must innovate more, deregulate
53:06more. Uh the current defense secretary,
53:08people speak very well of him.
53:09>> Can he take this innovation challenge
53:11now? take it to the front line. Why
53:13can't we give 35,000 crores to the army
53:15commander? The IFAS system needs to
53:18understand it's not their fault. They
53:19have been brought up on this L1
53:21medicine.
53:22>> National security is H1 today. The smart
53:24way is not to get the cheapest product
53:27at the beginning to get the best product
53:30even if it is expensive. How do you get
53:31cost down by scaling up now? It is that
53:34is why I say it is primarily an
53:36ideational challenge. Lot of good stuff
53:38is happening. I told you about these
53:39guys writing essays. If you see in
53:41Synindur we did wonderfully well.
53:44>> But I am saying can we give our
53:46soldiers, sailors and airmen much more
53:49what they deserve. Of course we are well
53:52poised these new normals in our
53:53strategic outlook. You see a new kind of
53:56aggressiveness. It was not so in the
53:58past. I have heard this phrase from the
54:00honorable home minister. Defense coming
54:03out of the shadows of foreign policy.
54:06Indeed our exports I mean the honorable
54:10Raksham Mantri Mr. Rajnat Singh but it
54:12is such a complicated enterprise as I'm
54:15saying it is a national security epoch
54:18in global terms so it needs everybody to
54:21sit together and I'm sure the I've named
54:23these people two to three months you can
54:26get a doctrine see how you can flesh it
54:28out there will be issues I mean not
54:31everything is not going to be easy there
54:33are a lot of legacy issues I'm certainly
54:36not making a case that disband artillery
54:38disband armor I'm not The fact is that
54:41the armored division has to look
54:42differently because uh the character of
54:45war has changed. Nobody's so as I began
54:47by saying the character of war has
54:49changed. We have to acknowledge it. We
54:51have some of the very fine minds and the
54:53delivery systems have also changed.
54:55Perhaps it will be more of these
54:56startups because they are agile. They
54:58are flatfooted. It is not those PSUs who
55:01were you know very traditional in their
55:02outlook.
55:03>> So I am saying that I am very hopeful.
55:06I'm a huge optimist but I'm stirring
55:10this conversation so that we make the
55:12most of it
55:12>> you know we hear
55:13>> after all sh if we did DPI
55:15>> why can't we do this DPI will equally
55:18big challenge
55:19>> yeah RDRA chri I must mention carnegi
55:22some great work he's doing on AI and so
55:24there are those you know islands of
55:26excellence which are you know working on
55:29these kind of issues yeah we need to put
55:32them together but the real issue is this
55:35if I am right we need to do a lot more
55:37if I'm not we can relax
55:40>> you know while we while we talk about
55:42the
55:43uh
55:45the absence of a k subramanyam perhaps
55:48or a k subramanyam like figure for this
55:51epoccal moment in our national security
55:54globally not just in India uh
55:58the overall sense I get from this
56:00conversation is is is that in India we
56:04tend to be obsessed with the with the
56:07details sometimes and we don't look at
56:10the big picture which is what K
56:12Subramanyam also said in the in the
56:13Cargill review committee. So I want to I
56:16want to ask you about theization for
56:18just a moment.
56:19>> Uh I'll just give you a small example
56:22sir. When I was a young defense
56:24correspondent, I remember uh
56:26interviewing the I think it was the vice
56:28chief of the air staff at that time uh
56:31when he made a stray comment about an
56:34aerospace command. We still don't have
56:36that command but uh it was a
56:39conversation that triggered a lot of
56:41media hoopla at that time because it was
56:44interpreted as uh you know how can the
56:47air force say this? It has to be a you
56:50know it has to be a tricervice thing and
56:51we've seen that kind of
56:54uh uh you know tribalism between the
56:56forces continue even now which I think
56:58underpins some of the conversations that
57:01happen over theatriization though I must
57:02say it's it's much more of a mature
57:04conversation now is theaterization and
57:07the way it's being talked about right
57:08now a waste of time I want to ask it in
57:10that way are we wasting time talking
57:13about theaterization when the real
57:17uh priorities ities are elsewhere.
57:19>> I mean see I have no doubt
57:21theaterization was a concept of the
57:231980s.
57:25>> We have wasted time debating it
57:27endlessly. Uh see what is it? It is
57:30really not theaterization.
57:32It is our ability to
57:36acknowledge and implement follow through
57:39on any reform any reform. So DRDO needs
57:43reform.
57:44If the military cannot do
57:46theaterization, will do we have the
57:48moral right to lecture anybody else on
57:50earth? These are very serious questions.
57:53>> And any case, I mean, while I'm all for
57:56theater, I'll give you a host of reasons
57:57why it should have happened as of
57:58yesterday. Uh if you want to see why
58:02theater should happen, there is a book
58:05called Every Man a Tiger by General
58:07Chuck Honor, an Air Force general who
58:10argued through Barry Goldwater Nicholls
58:12for theaterization to happen because air
58:15power gained more when it was
58:17theaterized than when it was in a
58:19different in a different manner. But in
58:21any case, today it is about integrating
58:23data. It is about data readiness. It is
58:26about digital theaters. the debates have
58:28gone far beyond you know so I am all for
58:33theaterization and theaterization is
58:35okay so let me put it this way where are
58:37we today in jointness the Indian nation
58:41or the Indian military set up the
58:42national defense academy which is which
58:45is years ahead in terms of its you know
58:48joint uh vision when at the first stage
58:52you say we will have a joint academy
58:54when we went to the NDA while we had
58:56different wings everywhere you were
58:58joined. Then what happens? You have a
59:01career where you you know launch people
59:04into the respective services
59:06and it is very late in their careers
59:09when you ask them to become integrated
59:11again.
59:12>> So by that time so much damage is done
59:16that reintegrating becomes a problem.
59:18But see the issues are what
59:20>> let's me give credit to the air force.
59:23The AM Chief Marshall Brown was somebody
59:27who proposed a triervice space command
59:30in 2004 when I was a colonel. The army
59:33sabotaged it shortsighted. We shouldn't
59:36have done it. It was a triervice space
59:38command. So it's not that the air force
59:40alone is guilty of these endeavors. But
59:42I'm saying let bygones be bygones. The
59:44time has come. And the point I was
59:46making, see where is our system today?
59:48CDS
59:50the Americans had a permanent chairman
59:52joint chiefs in 1949.
59:56Then they played on this coordinated
59:57jointness you know and where it first
1:00:00happened that Iran hostage rescue I
1:00:02think 7980 where they rehearsed for 6
1:00:05months in their respective silos and
1:00:07there was a disaster and then they break
1:00:10broke free and they said no this system
1:00:12is broken Barry Goldwater Nicole's
1:00:14happens and they
1:00:17commands Gulf War one you see network
1:00:19centricity by Gulf War 2 in these
1:00:21theatized structures you have Bradley
1:00:23commanders calling for the iron effect
1:00:2516. So it's just not about technology,
1:00:28it's about breaking these silos and air
1:00:31power rises to a new high within the
1:00:33structures. We are today in the 1949
1:00:37moment. Damn it.
1:00:39>> As far as theization is concerned,
1:00:41>> of course, jointness. So are we going to
1:00:43go through the same painful lessons or
1:00:45are we going to learn the lessons of
1:00:46history and take a leap of faith? This
1:00:48is where I say it is you know
1:00:49statesmanship looking ahead and in the
1:00:52larger gamut where do we need to move?
1:00:54We are in a state of coordinated
1:00:56jointness. We need to get to you know
1:01:01integration. We need to get to
1:01:03crosspollination. We need to get to
1:01:05civil military fusion.
1:01:06>> Yeah.
1:01:06>> And it is just not the armed forces. The
1:01:08NCS was founded on the premise that
1:01:11there will be 50% people from the
1:01:13government, 50% non-government. those
1:01:15civilians that I was speaking of the
1:01:17case Subraman of the future you made it
1:01:20a whole government enterprise. So if
1:01:21turf is going to be the defining factor
1:01:24everywhere it is less than wise it it
1:01:27cannot be done. So this whole argument
1:01:30has to change and why you will never get
1:01:32those civilian analysts because in the
1:01:34United States you get them. I mean they
1:01:36are of the quality of uh Anthony Blinken
1:01:39and all these guys Joe Feiner and all
1:01:41because they move in and out of
1:01:43government seamlessly.
1:01:44>> That will only happen when you create
1:01:46vacancies for these people. Today I
1:01:48think the office of the CDS needs to
1:01:49have a technologist. The office of the
1:01:52honorable Raksham Mantri NS certainly
1:01:54you need to have the ultimate argument
1:01:57of civil military fusion is talents and
1:02:00attributes of any kind from anywhere.
1:02:02>> Yeah. Yeah.
1:02:03>> Not army, navy, air force and as we
1:02:06become a big power we have to rise to
1:02:08those things you know. So that's the
1:02:10>> final question then uh uh because you
1:02:13know I I've seen many of these startups
1:02:15and the world that you talk about
1:02:17general uh uh and I know one of the
1:02:20things you like talking about is um you
1:02:22know someone like an Elon Musk and the
1:02:24other names that you mentioned that is
1:02:26>> you know that can be that sort of
1:02:28technological game changer under this
1:02:30civil military fusion dynamic.
1:02:34You think that can happen in India?
1:02:36>> Why not? Why not? So those these five
1:02:39Olympiads winners
1:02:41>> they are the Elon Musk. Alon Mus became
1:02:44Elon Musk because CIA invested in him.
1:02:46The DIA invested in him. Uh we are at
1:02:49that moment. I mean what stops up? What
1:02:51rule stops up tomorrow? Pick up those
1:02:53five. Give one to DRDO. Give one to the
1:02:56office of the CDS. Let two go to the
1:02:58Bangalore ecosystem.
1:02:59>> Okay. So let me make two points and I
1:03:01make serious points not to you know to
1:03:03to scorn anyone. Over a period of time
1:03:07this L1 has become a disease in the
1:03:09government. What means lowest cost don't
1:03:12take decisions postpone them. Why do you
1:03:15need talent in national security to this
1:03:18has to go L1 is this whole mindset and I
1:03:21don't blame the IFAS at all because we
1:03:23have instilled it into them. So L1 has
1:03:26to go. The private sector also has to
1:03:29shape up. I think this government has
1:03:31done a lot for the private sector to
1:03:33encourage them startups.
1:03:34>> Many areas they are. But let me tell you
1:03:36one area they are not. That is R&D.
1:03:40>> One area which needs a lot of R&D is
1:03:42national security constantly. The
1:03:44Americans spend $975 billion on R&D.
1:03:48$700 billion shift comes from the
1:03:50private sector. China is $545 billion.
1:03:54Ours is some $40 billion private sector.
1:03:57next to nothing though I recently read
1:03:58an article where our whole R&D
1:04:00expenditure is growing up
1:04:02>> but it needs to grow significantly more
1:04:04so it needs to move from ROI to R&D
1:04:10ROI ROI is shortsighted it has to be R&D
1:04:14because national security by nature is a
1:04:17long game it is a long game which needs
1:04:20you know long investments
1:04:22>> so if I may sum up for all is things
1:04:27that I have spoken about
1:04:30the the the the broth seems to be
1:04:33cooking
1:04:38but now the food needs to be delivered
1:04:41and we have those pieces. I mean tell me
1:04:43what do we not have? Do we not have
1:04:44talent? Do we not have scale? We have
1:04:47one of the most professional militaries.
1:04:49We have a reasonably mature ecosystem
1:04:52even in the DPSUs and all. So I'm saying
1:04:56let let the best man win if SK Sharma
1:04:58has done well here. Why can't he be
1:05:01moved to one of those PPSUs? And vice
1:05:03versa. There's a civilian get him to the
1:05:05military. So in that kind of sense uh
1:05:09you know when when we have reached such
1:05:11a national security epoch
1:05:13>> I think our system we just need to need
1:05:16to rearrange those pieces. But it's not
1:05:18easy. I am from the system. I know from
1:05:20within what games people play sometimes
1:05:24games and many out of conviction
1:05:25>> there will be sirkis as there will be
1:05:28fedovs
1:05:30>> but those battles have to play out the
1:05:33Americans are facing that battle hexith
1:05:36and you know the driskall the Chinese
1:05:38are facing it so there will be some
1:05:39legitimate fights some illegitimate
1:05:41fights but in the larger national
1:05:43security interest those fights have to
1:05:45play out the sooner the better
1:05:46>> yeah the food must be served uh and the
1:05:49the the the the kind of mindset and
1:05:52policy agility that you prescribed
1:05:55General Shukla is uh is is difficult to
1:05:58conceive. I have to be honest but you're
1:05:59right. I think there is no choice here.
1:06:01We don't have a choice but to uh do this
1:06:04and time is short.
1:06:05>> 12 years. Okay, let me make this
1:06:06>> and it's a moving target.
1:06:07>> Okay sh till I was a colonel
1:06:11if I was seen when a private sector guy
1:06:14it would have been a career ending move.
1:06:17today is in private sector and the so
1:06:20things can happen.
1:06:21>> Yeah. Yeah.
1:06:21>> And that's why I've been optimist.
1:06:23>> Yeah. I'm an optimist too and uh you
1:06:26know even though journalists tend to be
1:06:28uh traditionally cynical, speaking to
1:06:31you gives us an understanding of what
1:06:33the problem is and the fact that we can
1:06:35solve it. So I want to end on that
1:06:37positive note. Uh we certainly have
1:06:39unleashed that debate general Shuklas.
1:06:41So I thank you for your time here on
1:06:42Control All Defense. I'm sure we're
1:06:44going to have many more conversations
1:06:46because this is something that only
1:06:48lights the fire and I can't wait to see
1:06:50the reactions to what you've put out
1:06:52here uh on the podcast. So, I thank you
1:06:54once again for your time and look
1:06:56forward to having you back.
1:06:57>> Great pleasure, Sh. Thank you. If you
1:06:58have been watching or listening, thank
1:07:00you so much and see you next time.

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