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URGENT UPDATE - Iran War Expert: A Mass Casualty Attack Is Coming! | Robert Pape — Transcript

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0:00Iran is stronger today than it was
0:02before the [music] war started. And this
0:04is literally the nightmare scenario that
0:07we've been worrying [music] about. And
0:09the reason you're having me here is
0:10because in the next few months, the
0:12world economic crisis is going to grow.
0:14>> And it does appear that you've been
0:16largely correct about what you said
0:18would happen.
0:18>> It's because I've been modeling the
0:20bombing of Iran for 20 years. And I've
0:22advised [music] every White House from
0:242001 to 2024 on different issues related
0:29to conflict. And right now we're coming
0:32into the stage [music] three prediction.
0:34We're like on the Titanic and we're
0:37about to hit the iceberg. [music] And
0:38when the iceberg hits there's not enough
0:40lifeboats for everybody. So we are
0:43knocking on the door of the world
0:45literally running out of oil. And then
0:47on top of that even we have another set
0:50of [music] problems. For example, Iran
0:52is attacking our base in Jordan and
0:54we're in our ninth day of bombing in a
0:56row. And the scale of eliminating the
0:58drone [music] and missile threat is much
1:00bigger than people realize because they
1:03hide those drones everywhere.
1:05>> So, how real is the risk that US will
1:08[music] do some kind of limited ground
1:09operation boots on the ground in Iran?
1:11>> It's bordering on 70% now, probably
1:14[music] by the end of this week. But I'm
1:16concerned about terrorist attack because
1:18controlling pieces of homeland territory
1:20is the biggest risk factor [music] for
1:22suicide terrorism. So the choice is do
1:24we have a global economic crisis,
1:27[music] possibly a recession, possibly
1:28worse, or do we let Iran control the
1:31straight of hormones?
1:32>> This is not a good place to be. So what
1:33is the most [music] probable next thing
1:36that you think happens?
1:37>> I think that question, Stephen, is the
1:40most [music] important question in the
1:42world. And I think the answer is
1:47This is super interesting to me. My team
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2:36Let's get on with the show. [music]
2:42Robert P, with everything that's going
2:44on with Iran at the moment, the US Iran
2:46war, and everything that I've learned
2:48from you in the two previous
2:49conversations we've had on the D of a
2:50CEO, I'm guessing that you're not really
2:54surprised by what we're seeing now. No,
2:57I'm not. I've been modeling the bombing
2:59of Iran for 20 years. The uh the fact is
3:03the modeling has held up and literally
3:06month by month by month uh when we were
3:09first here the big surprise for most
3:11people was that we bombed the regime in
3:14Iran and it still stood. It survived
3:16even though uh we killed the supreme
3:19leader and something like 137 of their
3:22top leaders. Think about that. So that
3:24would be like if somebody killed our
3:26president, his wife, the first lady,
3:30members of the first family, half of the
3:33cabinet, all of the leaders in the
3:35Pentagon, all of the leaders in the CIA,
3:38and about a third of the Congress.
3:41That is what we did to Iran in those
3:44opening weeks in March. And nonetheless,
3:47that regime survived. And that was
3:50something the modeling showed for that
3:5220 years that was based on uh
3:54substantial um patterns in history uh
3:57where air power alone had never toppled
4:00a regime going all the way back to World
4:02War I. Most people had not really heard
4:05that before. Many people even in the
4:07military did not fully know how much
4:10President Trump went up against the
4:12weight of history. Then we shifted. We
4:15shifted to uh six weeks of a bombing
4:17campaign. And then what did we do? we
4:19shifted over to a two-month blockade.
4:21Well, that was another version of
4:24punishment. So, the US said that they
4:26were going to block the straight of
4:27Hormuse, basically trying to take
4:29control of it themselves and therefore
4:31kind of punishing the rest of the world.
4:33>> U well, they they didn't want to punish
4:35the world. What they were that did
4:37happen, but what they wanted to do was
4:39punish Iran. So, they were trying to
4:43coers Iran to get the government to
4:45surrender control of Hormuz. So keep in
4:49mind what happened is on February 28th
4:52that regime change bombing happened and
4:54it went on for a few days but by March
4:572nd March 3rd Iran controlled Hormuz
5:00literally within a few days the ships
5:02stopped cold and they basically have not
5:05reopened except for teenytiny periods of
5:07time in a small in a modest way and then
5:10you're stuck. How do you get Iran to
5:13give up control of Hormuz or do you let
5:16Iran continue to uh control Hormuz for
5:19as far as the eye can see? That's been
5:22the dilemma we've been in, Stephen,
5:25since really the first week in March.
5:28And now it's become clearer to the world
5:30that has the core dilemma. We're at a
5:33fork in the road. Either we physically
5:35take hormones back all those other
5:38tactou didn't work. didn't get
5:41>> theou
5:42>> uh the memorandum of understanding
5:44>> which was the I sat here with JD Vance
5:45and he told me that they were about to
5:47sign an agreement with Iran to
5:51ultimately end the war and they had that
5:54agreement.
5:55>> Yeah.
5:55>> JD told me that it was about to be
5:57signed. Couple weeks later here we are.
6:00They're back to bombing each other.
6:01>> Yeah. There's really two big issues with
6:04this Stephen with theou
6:06the memorandum of understanding. Um, I
6:09do believe that uh uh Vice President
6:11Vance sincerely thought it was going to
6:14uh had a good chance of ending the war.
6:17Uh, but there's a big problem here,
6:19Stephen, which is when you listen to
6:22Vice President Vance, he approached this
6:24as a business deal. So, he kept talking
6:27about all the benefits that were going
6:29to come to Iran if they performed a fee
6:33for service. We want the straight open
6:35and we're going to offer you money in
6:38different ways if you will open the
6:40straight. Well, this is just a
6:42fundamental misunderstanding of
6:44international politics. This may work
6:46great in real estate. I'm not saying it
6:48doesn't, but in a ma major war like
6:50this, what's at stake is the balance of
6:52power. The balance of power. Now, I want
6:56to explain that before the war, before
6:58the war started, there was a balance of
7:01power where America was ascended. Israel
7:03was the rising power and Iran was
7:05actually the declining power in the
7:07region. What happened almost within
7:10again two weeks of the war starting is
7:13the balance of power was shifting
7:15dramatically when Iran became in control
7:19of form. This represents tremendous
7:22power in the future. that wealth, all of
7:25the potential that uh even though it
7:27hadn't been realized yet, equates to not
7:30just money to put in coffers, but it
7:32equates to military power. It equates to
7:36the ability to influence other states in
7:38the region to build a sphere of
7:40influence. This is power in terms of
7:43major power politics that was shifting
7:45here. And so with theou as uh you look
7:50at theou JD Vance appears we could just
7:52look at it he appears to have thought
7:54this was a business deal. So he appears
7:57to have thought we're going to hold up
7:58the uh promise of say $300 billion it
8:02will eventually fall on you if you will
8:04just to agree to do what we want and
8:08behave. Those aren't the clauses that
8:10matter to Iran. The clauses that
8:12mattered to Iran were the clauses which
8:16directly relate to the balance of power
8:20in solidifying Iran
8:23uh its control of Hormuz and essentially
8:26thisou is fundamentally a road map to
8:30Iran becoming the regional hegeimon.
8:33>> Heggeimon what does that mean?
8:34>> The most dominant state in the Persian
8:37Gulf in the Middle East. Wait, so you're
8:40saying that this agreement would make
8:41them the most dominant state in the
8:42Middle East?
8:42>> Absolutely.
8:43>> So why wouldn't they sign it within a
8:44heartbeat?
8:45>> They did. They did. Iran sign. In fact,
8:48most of these points were exactly the
8:51points that President Trump said he
8:52would never sign in April when Iran
8:55presented the initial 14-point plan in
8:57April. And the key back at war then?
9:00Well, well, let me just explain the key
9:02the key things that happened here is
9:05that number one, notice in article five,
9:08it says that Iran will make the
9:11arrangements uh with Hormuz, that is the
9:14ships with Hormuz and it will not charge
9:17for 60 days. It doesn't say it will
9:19never charge. It says only 60 days. So,
9:23think about that. That this is already
9:25it written into the agreement that
9:27President Trump is signing. And then if
9:30you say, well, what's going to happen
9:31down the road? It's going to be Iran and
9:34Oman who are going to determine the
9:37future fees. There's no mention here of
9:39the United States. There's no clause to
9:41even let the United States wiggle itself
9:43in. This is a perfectly clearly written
9:46clause. And this basically gives Iran
9:50control of the straight of Hormuz and
9:52also of the the the discretion to set
9:55the fees for as far as the I can see
9:57with no constraint whatsoever.
10:00>> How do we know that this is the actual
10:01document?
10:02>> Because both the Iranian government and
10:04the White House put out exactly the same
10:06document word for word um so that we can
10:09actually compare them literally word for
10:12word. So this is exactly the document
10:15that President Trump signed. There's no
10:17question that uh we have like an earlier
10:19draft. Now, there were some earlier
10:21drafts leaked by Bloomberg. That's not
10:23what this is. This is the final one. But
10:26let me go a little bit further here,
10:27Steve. So, here we're talking about the
10:30strategic base of Iran. And keep in
10:32mind, controlling hormuz means
10:34controlling 20% of the world's oil.
10:36That's a fantastic amount of wealth and
10:39strategic power to build on in the
10:41future. No limit says that nothing about
10:44you can't spend it on missiles, anything
10:46else. But up here with Lebanon, the
10:49first article. So here,
10:51>> so when you say article, this document
10:53contains 10, is it 10?
10:55>> 14 different points. And when you say
10:57>> 14 different points and there's three
10:59points that are really the critical
11:01action points that matter here. this
11:04promise of $300 billion dollars down the
11:07road, this is so far, you know, th this
11:10is like holding out um uh funny money to
11:13the Iranians. These are the things that
11:14are actually short-term because this is
11:16happening now.
11:17>> So, point one, you're saying
11:19>> point one I want to come back to,
11:20Stephen, because I want to explain this
11:22is Iran's strategic base.
11:24>> Point number five,
11:25>> point number five. But what happens to
11:27become the dominant power in the region?
11:29You need more than a strategic base. You
11:32want a sphere of influence. You want a
11:34sphere of influence here. And can I just
11:36can we so I'll hold this up here. Is
11:38that
11:39>> Yeah, that's good. That's good. Point
11:40number five is controlling the straight
11:42of Hormuz. But many of uh the different
11:46countries including Saudi Arabia. You
11:48have already started to have pipelines
11:50to bypass the straight of Hormos. There
11:52were plans to do this for years. They
11:54were too expensive. But almost
11:56immediately uh they started to do that.
11:58So the Saudi Saudi Arabia started to put
12:01out four to five million barrels of oil
12:03a day starting in mid-March uh into the
12:07Red Sea on a pipeline that had already
12:09been built and hadn't been used. There's
12:11a a little area here called Fujyra which
12:14is where the UAE had a pipeline that's
12:17almost 2 million barrels a day. So 20
12:19million barrels a day were going through
12:21Hormuz almost immediately 7 million were
12:24being bypassed. Then there's all this
12:26discussion that Iraq might build some
12:29pipelines. There might be other
12:31pipelines here going through Syria. So
12:34what if you're Iran, you now control
12:37this. But notice it's a declining asset
12:40that way. If you only control Hormuz
12:43within 5 years, good chance your power
12:45is going to be whittleled away. What you
12:47want to do is you want a sphere of
12:49influence. So what Iran started to talk
12:52about is their security resistance belt
12:57where they wanted to control and they
13:00said from the Mediterranean
13:02to the Red Sea to the Gulf. This was the
13:05leaders of the Revolutionary Guard. And
13:07why would you do that? Because you want
13:10to prevent all of those bypasses to
13:14Hormuz. And they're already happening.
13:18And where's the key one? You don't you
13:20already have the Houthies down here. You
13:22have Hezbollah here, but you want to
13:25make sure the Houthies are pretty secure
13:27right here. It was
13:28>> So, just again for the people that can't
13:30see.
13:30>> Yeah.
13:31>> So, you're saying the Houthies are
13:32pretty secure where
13:33>> the Houthies are pretty secure down here
13:35in Yemen. They've been fighting uh with
13:37the Saudis for quite some time. They've
13:39held their own. Uh we fought a war with
13:42the the uh the Houthies in May 2025
13:46to try to get them to uh pull back from
13:49a temporary shutdown of the Red Sea. And
13:52we lost essentially. Um so we couldn't
13:55beat them. But the big one that was at
13:57issue was uh Lebanon. And it's and my
14:00point is it's not so much that they love
14:03Hezbollah. They do of course they've had
14:05long time uh decades of relationships
14:07with Hezbollah ideologically. There's
14:09there uh there's good reasons for that.
14:11But there's something else that's a
14:14power reason that's being ignored uh
14:17here, which is you want Hezbollah to
14:19have drones right here in Lebanon. So if
14:23there's a pipeline that comes out here
14:25through Syria, if you've got some other
14:26pipelines that are coming out here,
14:28you've got Hezbollah here that can act
14:31as your Houthies. They can actually
14:33attack the shipping. So now you have a
14:36you're you're Iran. You're a major
14:38power. You're the dominant power in the
14:40region. You don't just control this area
14:42here and the straight of
14:44>> the straight of Formuz and Iran itself.
14:46You have an arc, a security arc here
14:50that in uh is a sphere of influence, but
14:53it's an operational sphere of influence.
14:55This is not just a piece of paper or
14:57something to talk about. This is what's
14:59guaranteeing you. You control all of
15:03that oil whether it the oil from the
15:05Persian Gulf comes out through Hormuz,
15:08whether it comes out through Syria or
15:10whether it comes out through the Red
15:11Sea. And that's what article one is
15:14about. So how come
15:15>> that's what I'm saying is not when I
15:17listen to Vice President Vance, which
15:19I've listened to your interview and
15:21other interviews, a super smart guy.
15:24Okay, this is not a matter of that.
15:26Okay. Uh but he's thinking of it as a
15:28business deal. We want Hormuz open.
15:30what's it going to take to pay? They're
15:32not looking at that. They're looking at
15:33they want to be a regional hedgeimon.
15:36This is their roadmap and that's why
15:38they stuck to those goals. But they
15:41signed this document, but then the war
15:43has kicked off anyway again because what
15:45happened is President Trump signed the
15:48document. He owned the document for it
15:51for a day. He explained that he signed
15:54the document because this was literally
15:56four weeks ago because the world was
15:58going to run out of oil in four weeks
16:00and he wanted to open Hormuse. So,
16:03President Trump saw this as a way to try
16:05to uh open Hormuse. But what happened
16:07immediately after President Trump signed
16:10the document literally starting in the
16:12next 48 hours is uh President Trump
16:15started to and his administration
16:17started to undermine the document
16:20violate the clauses in that document. So
16:24issue number one was Secretary Rubio
16:27establishing a framework accord
16:29agreement in Lebanon which essentially
16:33would lock in Israel's military presence
16:36in Lebanon as far as the eye could see.
16:39Whereas article one in the document says
16:42that uh the United States would
16:43guarantee the territorial integrity of
16:46Lebanon which I'm everybody would
16:50realize would mean Israel is is
16:52violating the territorial integrity of
16:54Lebanon. It's not ensuring it. So that
16:57would mean Israel can't be locked in
16:59there and still be faithful to Article
17:01One. So the framework agreement
17:02immediately violates article one. The
17:05second thing that happened and this
17:06happened shortly after the framework
17:08accord is President Trump started to
17:10encourage uh passage through the
17:13straight of Hormuz uh through the
17:15southern uh there's three routes through
17:17the straight of Hormuz. The central
17:19route which used to be in existence the
17:21main route before the war now that's
17:22where the 80 mines are. So, nobody's
17:24using the Sentra. They're either passing
17:26through the southern avenue, which is
17:28the one close to uh Oman, or they're
17:31passing through the Iranian passage,
17:33which is, of course, near the coast of
17:34Iran. And what President Trump did is he
17:37started to encourage this passageway
17:40ships to um bypass or pass through
17:42Hormuz on the southern passageway, but
17:45with no coordination with Iran, with no
17:48um even u often with their transponders
17:51turned off. In fact, President Trump was
17:52bragging about this as his secret way to
17:55sort of uh bypass Iran's control of the
17:58straight of form. He literally bragged
18:00about this on multiple posts on true
18:02social. Well, that directly uh
18:05contravenes article 5. Um and then the
18:08third thing that happened is if you look
18:10at we haven't looked at article 11 but
18:12if we look at article 11 you would see
18:14that Iran was um uh due to have some of
18:18its frozen asset some of its assets that
18:21were seized by the United States and
18:22have been held for decades unfrozen
18:25and it and there's a specific sentence
18:28which gives Iran the exclusive right to
18:32determine um what's going to happen with
18:34that money and what President Trump said
18:37is they can have their money but only if
18:39they give it to the farmers the US
18:41farmers and buy American grain. That's
18:43the third violation of theou. So what
18:46happened here Stephen is President Trump
18:49owned theou he and was faithful to it uh
18:53for at least a day maybe two and this
18:56represented a strategic defeat for the
18:58United States. And he even explained why
19:00he accepted that strategic defeat very
19:02clearly and forthrightly. I call that
19:05owning the loss. He owned the loss for
19:08about a day or two, but then he tried to
19:11reverse the loss almost immediately,
19:14Stephen. And that's how we're back at
19:16war. Because the big miscalculation that
19:19happened in this period was assuming
19:23that if President Trump didn't restart
19:25the war, the war would be over. The mis
19:28what? Who started the war? Who started
19:31to shoot the ships in the straight of
19:33Formuz? It was the Iranians. Why did
19:37they do that? Because we were violating
19:40theou, bypassing their control of the
19:43straight of Hormuz, and that means
19:46preventing Iran from becoming the
19:49regional power, the rising regional
19:51power, ultimately the regional hegeimon.
19:54So this is why they violated. It wasn't
19:56so much a legal understanding. This is
19:59great power politics. Stephen, Iran
20:02wants to be the dominant state in the
20:06region. The United States does not want
20:09Iran to be the dominant state in the
20:11region. That has what is what this war
20:14has been about since the first week in
20:18March and now it's 5 months later and
20:21we're still at that point.
20:24There should be a button just down below
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20:41Thank you so much. Did Iran charge
20:44people to go through the Straight of
20:45Hormuse before this?
20:46>> No, never did. Did they control the
20:49Straight of Hormuz at all? Well, before
20:51uh the war started, not at all. Before
20:52the before February 28, Iran did not
20:56control the straight of Hormuz. What
20:57Iran did is it moved from survival to
21:01ambition. So Iran saw there was an
21:05opportunity with the bombing uh because
21:07the United States had no mil we didn't
21:10even have our navy here. There was no
21:11means whatsoever uh to sort of offset
21:14this this uh Iran's uh control of the
21:17straight of hormones. Nothing at all.
21:19Iran took this as an opportunity and the
21:22opportunity was to seize power. So is it
21:25fair to hypothesize that actually this
21:30war might have strengthened Iran because
21:34now it has this control over energy on a
21:37global basis that it didn't have before.
21:39>> Without a doubt. Without a doubt,
21:41Stephen. I don't say this with any
21:43happiness. There's really no question at
21:46this point that Iran is stronger today
21:50than it was before the war started on
21:53February 28th. And that's because it
21:56controls uh the Strait of Hormuz,
21:59meaning that it can threaten at will
22:02virtually any ship that goes through the
22:05Straight of Hormuz. It's demonstrated
22:07this over and over and over again. Even
22:09when the ships turn off their
22:11transponders, they are still able to
22:13threaten ships as they go through. And
22:16every time a ship tries to run the
22:18gauntlet, they run into a drone, a mine,
22:21they run into basically Iran's barrier,
22:24and that is Iran's power.
22:26>> There was a a tweet that went viral this
22:28week um about this. I'm going to read
22:31the tweet here. It says, "I'm confused.
22:33The US has the most powerful military on
22:35Earth. We've bombed the hell out of Iran
22:37for 4 months. Trump says their air
22:39force, navy, and nearly all of their
22:42missile capabilities are destroyed. So,
22:44how is Iran still capable of hitting US
22:46bases right now? Because only a small
22:50fraction of its drone arsenal is
22:53necessary uh and missile arsenal in
22:56order to inflict that damage. Iran
22:59entered this war with thousands, we
23:02think tens of thousands of drones,
23:06missile uh ballistic missiles,
23:08anti-shipping missiles, which are lower
23:11sea skimming cruise missiles. Um, and
23:14even though we have destroyed large
23:16fractions of their uh of their missiles,
23:19they have plenty left over to hit these
23:23uh these targets because they're doing
23:25saturation attacks. They're essentially
23:27doing swarms. They're saturating our uh
23:30our defensive capability and the the uh
23:33the drones and missiles to get through
23:36plenty enough to damage it to the point
23:39we can barely use it if if if at all.
23:42>> So is it is it mainly drones that
23:44they're using at the moment to conduct
23:45these attacks on the straight of Himuz
23:47and on US bases? Uh it's been a
23:50combination in the m in in March. It was
23:53mostly intermediate range ballistic
23:55missiles and then drones since about the
23:58middle of March. Um until just quite
24:01recently it's mostly been drones except
24:03for Israel when Israel's been attacked.
24:05It's it's been very heavily with
24:07ballistic missiles. Uh but what you're
24:09seeing now that's just in the last week
24:11is you're starting to see the use of
24:13ballistic missiles. You're seeing the
24:15use of cruise missiles. These are these
24:17sea skimming missiles here and they're
24:20being used in against multiple targets.
24:23So the full arsenal that Iran has the
24:28full range of the arsenal it appears to
24:32be fully there full stocked very well
24:36and they're showing no signs of running
24:38out of ammo. If anybody's running out of
24:41ammo, it might be America running out of
24:43interceptors to shoot things down. Um,
24:46but we don't know that as a fact. And I
24:48think that what you're seeing is Iran
24:50has been highly intelligent intelligent
24:53about how it has deployed its its
24:56missiles. Trump said they have no navy.
24:59It's been knocked out. They have no air
25:01force that's been knocked out. They have
25:02no air detection that's been knocked
25:05out. Their radar has been knocked out.
25:07And just about everything's been knocked
25:09out. Virtually everything they have has
25:11been knocked out. He said that on Truth
25:13Social in May 2026. If everything has
25:17been knocked out,
25:17>> Mhm.
25:18>> then how come there's no safe passage
25:20through the Straight of Hermoose? How
25:21come this weekend we saw more Americans
25:25tragically die um because of Iranian
25:27attacks?
25:28>> Because what they have left we can't
25:30knock out and is plenty to do the
25:32damage. That's the fundamental problem.
25:35We took out the easy stuff to hit. they
25:38didn't need it in order to seize control
25:41of hormones and keep hormones and start
25:44to defend themselves against uh more
25:46aggressive pressure. And the bottom line
25:49is that it's it's very difficult, if not
25:52impossible, to eliminate that
25:55capability. We would do it in a
25:58heartbeat if we could right away.
25:59>> Explain to me in just simple terms why
26:01it's so difficult to remove that
26:02capability. You know, I was looking at
26:04this picture here which shows the size
26:06of a drone relative to another object.
26:11So, I guess there was two questions
26:12which is like where do they hide these
26:15and how easy it is is it to make one of
26:17these drones? So, they hide those drones
26:21Stephen everywhere. Okay.
26:23>> Okay. They can they're in drone caverns.
26:26They're in warehouses.
26:28They're everywhere. They could be. So
26:30that drone, just to kind of give you a
26:32sense here, would easily fit in this
26:34room. But the reason this is so
26:36difficult is notice how small that is
26:39here. That that drone compared to the
26:42scale of where it could be. And this is
26:45what I really want to uh show you
26:47because this is I think the hardest part
26:50to explain to to people as I'm talking
26:53in whatever format I'm talking is it's
26:55the scale of eliminating the drone and
26:59missile threat is much bigger than
27:03people realize because they're hearing
27:04measurements well we've destroyed x% and
27:07y% and that's why you're getting the
27:09question but if you look at this map
27:11this is what they where these drones
27:14these shah Heeds 136 could literally be
27:17anywhere in this radius, 500 mile area.
27:23And notice how huge this area is. This
27:29area, this area like this is bigger than
27:33California. It's one and a half times
27:36the size of California.
27:38>> So I guess it's like trying to find a
27:40truck in California.
27:41>> It's like trying to find a truck in
27:43California. These little things here are
27:46the Shahed drones. Yeah.
27:48>> Okay. And what we're doing in this area,
27:51which is mountainous. So, this is why we
27:54have a a threedimensional, it's not just
27:56a two-dimensional problem. It's a
27:57threedimensional problem.
27:59>> We'll show some of these uh visuals on
28:02screen now just to show what the train
28:03where they're hiding these drones might
28:05be like.
28:05>> They could be anywhere in these
28:07mountains. There's all kinds. And if we
28:09kind of imagine this as a visual. So
28:11this is the general problem here we have
28:15which is just this stuff could be
28:16anywhere. And now these are the drones
28:20and this is the terrain that the drones
28:24are going to hide in. And notice I've
28:26just sprinkled some here. But now I'm
28:28going to cover these up with more
28:31terrain.
28:33And notice you can't see those drones
28:35anymore. And now I'm going to put in
28:37some more drones somewhere else. And now
28:39we're going to put another layer in. And
28:41this is this is again it's the
28:43three-dimensional part of the problem.
28:45Meaning hard to find from the air. Now
28:48if I get my people out and I start going
28:50in now, I could start to dig them out.
28:52But let's just keep doing this for a
28:53while. So now I'm putting in another say
28:5620 drones. And I'm going to cover it yet
29:00again.
29:02And then I'm going to put in uh another
29:05set of drones.
29:07And I'm covering it yet again.
29:09>> I guess you could put all the drones in
29:11there and you you would still be able to
29:12cover them.
29:13>> You would. Yes. But you wouldn't do it
29:14in You would do it in layers. So they're
29:16going to make it so that if you find
29:17one, you're going to have to work really
29:19hard. You have to get them drone by
29:21drone by drone or at least in clusters
29:24of them.
29:24>> I guess also an important point of
29:26context is they're also making new ones
29:28this whole time.
29:30>> Exactly. So our estimates that we have
29:32leaked from the Pentagon are in April.
29:35That's months ago.
29:37these drones, they're they were making u
29:3955,000 a year and giving them to Russia.
29:43So just think about that. That's
29:44thousands every single month. Why
29:47haven't they made uh another 5 or 10,000
29:50drones since April? If you want this to
29:53open, so let me just straight for
29:55>> the straight of form. So now let me just
29:58explain. So this is our problem. If you
30:01want the straight of Formoose to open,
30:03it's not good enough to say, "Oh, look.
30:05I' I've found like dozens or hundreds of
30:08these drones." You've got to persuade
30:11the shipping companies that their ships
30:14are safe.
30:16They don't obey orders from the
30:18Pentagon. You can't order the shippers
30:21to go through
30:22>> because the ships are expensive.
30:23>> The ships are expensive and the crews
30:26don't want to Oh, in the many millions.
30:28millions and millions of dollars. I
30:30don't know the exact amount of these uh
30:32tankers, but each tanker will carry
30:34between 700,000 and over a million
30:36barrels of oil. And so they have quite a
30:39the just and you can do the math right
30:41there to see how much each ship is worth
30:43carrying that much uh uh that much oil.
30:46>> I was looking at the cost here. It says
30:48when you combine a brand new vessel with
30:49a full tank of oil, a sh single tank
30:51crossing the straight of Hermuz is a
30:53floating asset worth 300 million.
30:56>> Oh wow. See, I didn't learn I learned
30:59something from you every time. Um, and
31:01>> that's not even the lives on board,
31:02which again are going to cause an
31:04insurance problem, but also no one wants
31:06to people to die.
31:07>> Well, and they don't want to die. So,
31:08you're going to have mutants. They're
31:10not going to. So, this is why you're
31:11seeing more ships leaving than you're
31:14seeing ships come in. And the ships that
31:16are coming in are very heavily coming to
31:18Iran's ports. That's one of the reasons
31:20President Trump put the blockade back
31:22on. It's because what happened here is
31:25theou this whole idea is not opening up
31:30the straight of hormuz it's not
31:32preventing what's going to come in the
31:35next few weeks maybe month which is the
31:38world economic crisis we are knocking on
31:40the door of what President Trump told us
31:42he was trying to avoid which is the
31:45world literally running out of oil and
31:47just today before we started the
31:51Houthies which big ally of Iran. So just
31:53to come back here and and reshow the
31:55map, uh remember I said that once uh the
32:00straight of Hormuz became shut down,
32:03there was 2 million of barrels coming
32:05out every day through um for the UAE
32:09coming out through Fyra and then four to
32:115 million uh coming out from Saudi
32:14Arabian oil going out to the Red Sea. Uh
32:18and this is the the port there at the
32:20Red Sea. Well, the Houthies have just
32:23shut this down literally today.
32:25>> Oh, really?
32:26>> Literally before we came on. Uh, it
32:28happened about 6 hours ago. This has
32:30been escalating for several weeks.
32:33Iran's been asking for this. This is
32:34part of the general escalation that
32:36we're seeing.
32:37>> Okay. So, we've got the Straight of
32:39Hermoose closed. We've got the Houthies
32:42closing
32:42>> the Red Sea,
32:43>> the Red Sea. So, there's no oil flowing
32:45through there. Yeah.
32:46>> So, are we on the verge of an economic
32:49crisis if things don't change quickly?
32:51>> Yes. Yes. This is a this is literally
32:54the nightmare scenario that we've been
32:57worrying about. And the reason is is
32:59this. Go back and let's let's think
33:02about this from the 20 million barrels
33:04of oil that was going through the
33:05straight of Hormuz. So when Iran gained
33:09control of the straight of Hormuz, what
33:12happened immediately is the uh Saudi
33:15Arabia and the UEE started to bypass
33:18Hormuz with 7 million barrels a day. So
33:21that means only 13 million at issue,
33:23right? That's a little that's helpful.
33:25The next is the strategic petroleum
33:28reserve, the United States. And we
33:30started to release about five or 6
33:35million barrels a week through the
33:37through the strategic oil
33:39>> when uh we started to do this. It's
33:41right around the middle of March. I
33:44can't remember the exact date, but
33:45notice that you put a big dent in that.
33:48And so that's one of the reasons the oil
33:50markets did not go crazy right away.
33:52>> So I've got some data here then. says,
33:54um, President Trump authorized the
33:55emergency release of 172 million barrels
33:59of oil from the strategic reserve
34:01designed to be pumped out over roughly
34:03120 days. This wasn't just a US issue or
34:07the US acting alone. The US draw down
34:09was part of a massive coordinated effort
34:11by 32 member nations of the
34:14International Energy Agency who
34:16collectively agreed to release 400
34:18million barrels from their emergency
34:20stock piles. Because these massive
34:22releases um were done to offset the
34:25Hormuz blockade, the US strategic
34:28reserve has been heavily depleted. And
34:30as of July 2026, the reserve has dropped
34:32down to roughly 300 million barrels,
34:35which marks the lowest level the reserve
34:38has since 1983,
34:40a more than 40year low. They're being
34:44depleted. Once you spend your reserve,
34:45you don't get it refilled. And that's
34:47what I think President Trump was talking
34:49about when he said we're about to run
34:51out of oil in four weeks. That was
34:54exactly the date because we've just run
34:56to the date of uh that that quote. What
34:59you just read is we're coming to about
35:02the 120th day. And so what that means is
35:04all of that cushion that we had in the
35:07system to protect the ga the price of
35:09gas already went up. Now you have even
35:12more risk. And then on top of that,
35:14Stephen, we have another set of problems
35:17besides the oil itself, which is
35:20refining capacity in the world. So we we
35:24don't uh put crude oil in our cars. We
35:27put gasoline in our cars. Diesel as
35:29well. Well, how do you get the gas and
35:31the diesel? You refine the crude. So
35:33that means the refineries need to work.
35:36Well, where are much of the world's
35:38refineries? in the Persian Gulf. Not
35:42just oil comes through the Persian Gulf,
35:44refined product, they're called
35:46distillates, they come through the
35:48Persian Gulf as well. Now, so that means
35:51you've shut down something like uh 25%
35:54or a third of the world's refining
35:56capacity.
35:57Now, let's marry this to what's
35:59happening with Russia and Ukraine's
36:01blasting Russia refineries in Russia. So
36:04what's happening Stephen is you are
36:07getting not just the decline of crude
36:10itself is about to run out but the
36:13refining capacity now has been heavily
36:17uh uh strained and and limited. Uh it
36:20might be down you know 40%. I don't know
36:22the exact number but it's something on
36:24that order. And what you're seeing then
36:26is what I think President Trump was
36:28seeing a month ago, which is he wanted
36:31the straight of form moves to open, but
36:33he also didn't want to own the L. And
36:36what President Trump has decided is
36:39he'd rather take the risk with the
36:41world's economy than own the L, own the
36:43loss,
36:45and maybe he'll change his mind,
36:46>> which means he'd rather take the risk
36:48with the world's economy than just own
36:50the L. So what would owning the L in
36:53this scenario? opponent the L would
36:55allow Iran to follow through with
36:57article 5. So if we go back to article 5
36:59>> to control to control the straight
37:00>> to control the strait on its terms
37:02>> but they that would be set preceded for
37:05all of these straits.
37:07>> Yes.
37:07>> Around the world that
37:08>> that's exactly right and you can't have
37:10that.
37:11>> Well these are the choices we have
37:12Stephen. So, so the choice is do we have
37:15um uh a global economic crisis, possibly
37:20recession, possibly worse, or do we let
37:23Iran control the straight of foremost?
37:24>> This is not a good place to be.
37:26>> Well, that's the fork in the road that I
37:28was telling you was the stage three
37:30dilemma. So, that's exactly where we
37:32were in Mar. So, so Stephen, just to
37:34explain to your audience because they
37:36were trying to figure out how are we
37:38getting here? This is what the 20 years
37:39of modeling was really showing. we would
37:42very quickly get to this fork in the
37:45road. It wouldn't take months and
37:47months. It would happen right away. And
37:50President Trump has been trying to avoid
37:52the escalation trap. This is called an
37:54escalation trap. And he's been trying to
37:56avoid that trap. He tried to avoid it
37:58with bombing for 6 weeks. He tried to
38:00avoid it with the blockade. He tried
38:02signing theou. He let JD Vance offer
38:05money. And that that none of those were
38:07were actually working. And what he where
38:10he is now is still at this fork in the
38:12road. The dilemma of the escalation
38:15trap. Either he owns the loss which it
38:19means everything you just said and
38:21becomes known as the president who
38:23allowed not just the straight of form
38:25moves to be uh be controlled but set a
38:28precedent for other countries and other
38:31non-state actors to control their their
38:33choke points. or we have the um we take
38:38it back physically. Are we going to
38:40physically take it back?
38:41>> So, we'll go through the stages in the
38:43escalation trap at straight away after
38:45this after we move on from this point
38:46around oil because I think some of my
38:48audience might not know that this
38:50escalation trap is historically
38:51predictable and that you've been talking
38:53about this for a long time and it also
38:55allows us to understand exactly what
38:56happens next. Um I was quite shocked
38:58when you just said that Trump said
39:01recently that the US would run out of
39:03oil within 4 weeks. So, I did I just
39:04looked down at some research here and it
39:06says that during a recent press
39:07conference at the G7 summit in June
39:092026, President Trump made a blunt
39:12admission about how dangerously low
39:15global energy oil stock piles have
39:17become due to the ongoing crisis in the
39:19straight of Hammoose. His direct quote
39:21was, "We run out of reserves at about 4
39:25weeks." You know, there are reserves all
39:27over the world and we would run really,
39:30really low. we would run out and
39:32there'll be a time when you wouldn't be
39:34able to get it. It would be bedum.
39:37>> Yes.
39:38>> Why is he saying that? Isn't that
39:40because
39:40>> doesn't that make him look bad?
39:41>> It it makes him he's being I think
39:44forthright in why he signed theou which
39:47is to avoid that bedum the world
39:49economic crisis. However,
39:53the problem for President Trump is in
39:56order to avoid the bedum, he has to let
39:59Iran control the straight of H formuz,
40:02establish that sphere of influence I was
40:04explaining and he almost immediately
40:08after he said that statement within 48
40:11hours undermined thatou that would have
40:14avoided that. Had theou just been uh
40:18implemented as written, we may not be
40:21sitting here today talking about the
40:23impending world crisis. And I believe
40:26one of the reasons we're knocking on the
40:29door of more escalation right now is
40:32because President Trump is desperate to
40:35open the straight of foremost. I think
40:37he's taking low risk uh high risk
40:40military option mil. I think he's
40:42pursuing military options he likely
40:44knows are unlikely to work, but they're
40:47his best chance to open hormuz before
40:50the crisis literally hits.
40:53>> But there's also another before, which
40:54is the midterm elections.
40:56>> Yes. Am I right in thinking that this
40:58midterm election takes place in 3 months
41:00time and if his approval rating is low
41:04at that point because of what's going on
41:07with the war because when Americans go
41:09to the pump to fill up their cars they
41:11notice the prices are way high higher
41:13than usual that means those Americans in
41:16the election in the midterm elections
41:18will vote for the Democrats which means
41:20he will lose the Congress. So he
41:22basically needs to make sure Americans
41:23are happy in three months time. He he
41:25needs to take the best chance he can can
41:28to make that happen. Okay. And I think
41:30that what happened here, Stephen, is he
41:33his quote, you just quoted him, I think
41:35it was June 17th.
41:37>> He's saying that within a month those
41:40reserves are going to run out and we're
41:42heading to that bedum that economic
41:45crisis and that is already happening.
41:49His s four weeks later, we're right on
41:51that trajectory. That trajectory has not
41:54changed. Maybe we've bought an extra
41:56week or two of time because some oil did
41:58get out from the from the Persian Gulf.
42:01Not that much, but enough for a few
42:03weeks here. So maybe it's it's going to
42:06now not fall on August 1st. Maybe it'll
42:08be August say 15th or 17th. But it will
42:11hit. It's And that's what he was. And
42:14now I think he's he sees when it hits
42:18he's going to lose uh there's a good
42:20chance that the Republicans will lose
42:22more seats in the House and in the
42:24Senate. That will make him the lamest of
42:26lame ducks for his last two years. Uh it
42:29may not be that he would be removed from
42:31office. That's probably not going to
42:32happen. But it could be that he will be
42:34impeached again. He will be tied in
42:36knots by the uh by the Democratic
42:38controlled House or Democratic
42:40controlled House and Senate. And um this
42:43is what he's trying to offset. And but
42:45he knows something that most of us I
42:48think um are not really taking seriously
42:51uh which is that the world is like we're
42:54like on the Titanic and we're about to
42:56hit the iceberg. And maybe that iceberg
42:58moved a little bit further away but
43:00we're still right on the trajectory to
43:03hit that iceberg. And it's coming and
43:05when the iceberg hits there's not enough
43:07lifeboats for everybody. And who's going
43:10to be short of lifeboats? The
43:11Republicans. And that's what I think why
43:14I think people made the mistake when
43:16they said, "Well, President Trump
43:18couldn't possibly escalate before the
43:20midterms." Couldn't possibly for weeks,
43:22Stephen. I've been on shows talking
43:24about, you know, why President Trump
43:26will escalate maybe after the midterms,
43:29maybe next year, but he certainly and I
43:30kept trying to explain this is not
43:32that's probably not right. And that's
43:34what you're seeing now. You're seeing
43:36that that President Trump is desperate
43:39to try to open the straight of Formos.
43:42He's he I think is being told probably
43:44directly from his military these options
43:46are very low uh risk. They're very high
43:49risk. They're very unlikely to succeed.
43:52But now that the Titanic is going to hit
43:54the iceberg, his only other choice is to
43:58completely walk back and say, "You're
44:01right, Oron. You control her moves. You
44:04set the fees. You don't have to make any
44:07limits on your nuclear program. You are
44:11the fourth center of world power. And I,
44:15Donald Trump, it happened under my
44:17watch. That's a big L to wear on your
44:21chest, Stephen. And that would be true,
44:23I think, for any president. This is what
44:25Lynden Johnson faced in Vietnam. Uh, we
44:29now have the tapes that Johnson was
44:33making in the White House in
44:35conversations. It wasn't just Nixon
44:37making tapes here. Johnson uh was making
44:41tapes. And we now have tapes of Johnson
44:44as he's making decisions to escalate the
44:47Vietnam War, explaining that he knows
44:52this is very unlikely to end the war.
44:55It's likely to make it worse. And why is
44:58he doing it? He's doing it because he's
45:01trying to uh hold on to his uh Great
45:05Society program just for another four or
45:08five months. And what he's hoping is
45:10that even though the escalation is
45:12likely not to work, there's some tiny
45:15chance it will. And in four or five
45:17months, he'll be able to pull a rabbit
45:19out of the hat. He became uh it failed
45:22domestically. Lyndon Johnson had to uh
45:25pull back from running for reelection
45:27because of the escalations in the
45:29Vietnam War. And President Trump is
45:32running the same risk that even though I
45:34believe that he's doing this because
45:36he's trying to give him him himself and
45:38the Republicans the best chance to win
45:41uh in November, uh it may not work.
45:44That's why I think President Trump
45:46already planted the seed of uh China
45:48meddling in the elections. he's already
45:51started the conversation uh that um uh
45:55that there's another possible stone
45:58election in our future. This time
46:00possibly uh by foreign country, possibly
46:03China.
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48:17That's h een.com/doac.
48:21See you there.
48:23On this point of the escalation trap,
48:27um, it has several stages to it, the
48:28escalation trap, as far as I understand.
48:30>> Uh, yes, I think you have the picture.
48:32Do we have the picture? I have a I have
48:34the escalation ladder.
48:36>> Yeah. Yes. So, I made this I think it
48:38was uh something like March 2nd or March
48:413rd.
48:41>> Okay. So, for people that can't see the
48:43visual, we'll also explain what we're
48:45showing here, but we will put it on the
48:47screen for those that can see.
48:48>> Yeah. So, what I did um is I was um uh
48:52trying to find a way to um graphically
48:55show the escalation trap. And what this
48:58looks like for those who can't see is an
49:00upside down pyramid. So basically it
49:03starts small at the bottom and gets
49:05worse and worse and more and more red
49:06and more and more red as you get through
49:08more and more stages as you go to the
49:11top. In the beginning you start with
49:13limited strike. That's the bombing of
49:15leadership bomb. You kill the leader.
49:17You kill uh you you try to topple the
49:19regime with leadership to uh and that
49:22leads to retaliation. Stage two. Stage
49:25two retaliation is Iran takes hormones
49:29and that then leads to us doing some
49:31retaliation. I would still call it in
49:33stage two by the way. Um that's why I
49:35kind of kept it the same color where
49:37we're doing the uh six weeks bombing.
49:40That's also where the blockade is. And
49:41notice then you get to this red stage
49:44here. Notice it's where economic crisis
49:46is. This is where stage three really
49:49starts. Okay. Now we were able to offset
49:51that economic crisis. So when we talked
49:53in March and April, it wasn't clear,
49:56especially China, they were still
49:57buying. So that economic crisis was a
50:00lot closer in um March and April than it
50:03became after the summit with Shei
50:05because she stopped buying 5 million
50:08barrels of oil a day. I want to
50:11underscore that. And what did she get
50:13for that? Uh President Trump last week
50:16just blamed him for uh meddling in our
50:19election. So I'm not sure she has
50:21thought that was a good deal. But still,
50:22we're at this point now, and this is
50:25where stage three is, or the choice is
50:27if you want to get off of the escalation
50:29trap, you then have to let Iran become
50:33uh the gain power, become the rising
50:36power in the region, the regional
50:37hegeimon, and essentially the fourth
50:39center of world power because once it um
50:42gains power u with Hormuz, has a sphere
50:45of influence, a year or two from now,
50:47Steven, they're very likely to have
50:48nuclear weapons. So this is this this is
50:51what it means to let Iran win. It's not
50:55Iran will win and be nice. Iran is going
50:58to become a very powerful state in the
51:00region. If we go further and this we
51:04actually uh do escalate and with the
51:07other map I'll explain what I think the
51:08real issues are going to be between now
51:10and the midterms.
51:12Then we're going to head into 2027 into
51:16the deep red which is the actual forever
51:18war. So many people this week and next
51:20week they're going to I'm going to be on
51:22a lot of shows Stephen talking about are
51:23we in a forever war? Well, that's
51:25coming. Okay, possibly. But right now,
51:29we're coming into the stage three
51:32question, which is are we going to
51:34physically use force for the first time
51:36for real to seize back control of at
51:40least part of Hormuz and so forth? And
51:43that is the big question because if we
51:46do that and that's why I think the real
51:48issue on the table right now is uh can
51:52the United States physically open hormos
51:56between now and the midterms. I think
51:59that question, Stephen, is the most
52:01important question in the world, for the
52:05world, for the world's economy, for
52:08international terrorism against
52:10Americans, uh, for whether or not we
52:12truly will be in a forever war. This is
52:15going to be decided between now and the
52:17midterms. And the and the and the key
52:20issue is, can we physically open the
52:24straight of form moves between now and
52:26the midterms? And I think sadly the
52:29answer is almost surely not.
52:34>> It's funny because you mentioned LBJ. So
52:37I was looking at some of his quotes
52:38around the time to see how they link
52:40because everybody knows the Vietnam War
52:41as being a war that just lasted forever
52:43and really achieved nothing. I mean
52:45that's generally the consensus that you
52:46read about.
52:48>> And LBJ said at the time, I know we
52:51ought not be there, but I can't get out.
52:54I just can't be the architect of
52:56surrender. And by this, he knew that the
52:58current strategy was a mistake, but he
52:59felt politically paralyzed because
53:01backing down would be like a humiliating
53:04defeat, which again links to Trump's
53:05situation. He also said, "Let's get
53:08somebody that wants to do something
53:09besides drop a bomb, but that can go in
53:12and take in after these damn fellas and
53:16run them back where they belong." And by
53:18that he meant relying entirely on
53:20overwhelming American air power wasn't
53:23actually solving the unconventional
53:24ground level problem which again links
53:26to Trump's situation as you've
53:28described.
53:28>> That's the transition from air power
53:30rolling thunder to the heavier use of
53:34ground forces and both of those of
53:36course ultimately fail.
53:37>> He also said I don't this is again LBJ's
53:40comments as president during the Vietnam
53:41War. I don't think that we can fight
53:43them 10,000 mi away from home and get
53:47anywhere in that area. It's just the
53:50biggest damn mess that I ever saw. By
53:52this, he meant trying to project
53:54military power halfway across the globe
53:56against an enemy fighting in their own
53:57backyard is incredibly difficult and
53:59likely futile, which again links to the
54:01orange situation. And lastly, LBJ said,
54:05"A man can fight if he can see daylight
54:08down the road somewhere, but there ain't
54:10no daylight in Vietnam. There's not a
54:13single bit." And by this he meant that
54:15there was no realistic achievable end
54:16point or path to victory for its
54:19military strategy. And that also links
54:20to how like when political pressures
54:22change and you know Trump's recent
54:24admission at the G7 that the world is
54:26about to run out of um their energy
54:28reserves is a stark realization that the
54:30current strategy is hard. It has a
54:32deadline and there's no clear solution
54:34in sight.
54:35>> Yeah. It's so tragic. It's so tragic
54:37that we're essentially replaying the
54:40Vietnam War. Trump is replaying the
54:43decisions that Lyndon Johnson made and
54:46coming to very similar decisions, which
54:49is he believes as Lynden Johnson did
54:52that even though the military escalation
54:55would be a likely loser on the on the
54:58battlefield, that loss would take months
55:01and months to play out. So there was
55:03some chance he could pull a rabbit out
55:05of a hat. But if he accepted immediate
55:08abrupt defeat, that would totally
55:12undermine and destroy his domestic
55:15political agenda.
55:16>> So, I've got I basically before you
55:18came, I looked at the top 20 questions
55:20that the internet currently wants to
55:22know about the Iran war.
55:22>> Oh, great.
55:23>> And we've knocked off a few of them
55:24already.
55:25>> Okay.
55:25>> We've got a couple of them left.
55:26>> Yeah, I love it. Um, one of them is can
55:28the United States actually force the
55:30straight of Hummus fully open with our
55:32current strategy or does Iran now hold
55:35lasting leverage over this critical
55:37choke point?
55:38>> The answer is um it the United States
55:41cannot do it and this would be an
55:42opportunity. Stephen, could I have that
55:44map back?
55:45>> Let me explain. Yeah, let me let me show
55:47you what I think is really in the offing
55:49here.
55:50>> So, a lot of people are wondering what
55:52are we going to do with 8,000 ground
55:54troops? So, we have somewhere around
55:564,500, 5,000 Marines, somewhere around
55:594,000 or so troops from the 82nd
56:02Airborne. What are these troops actually
56:04going to do? And I think that what
56:07President Trump is doing here, and I
56:09think you can really we can really see
56:11this if I kind of explain this is what
56:14we are doing is we are concentrating our
56:17forces, our naval forces here into the
56:20Gulf of Oman. We are not moving them
56:23through the straight of Formos where con
56:26our carriers are in the Gulf of Oman and
56:29also our marine expeditionary unit is in
56:32the Gulf of Oman. Now previously these
56:35had been further away
56:38the board in the Indian Ocean. We move
56:41them here closer. And this is important
56:44because these guns are are guns that
56:48have range to be able to hit the shore
56:50within about 12 mi. So what are you
56:53doing with these ships? And what are you
56:55doing here is you are building a force
56:59that might be uh able to take a piece of
57:03territory at Charbahar or there's a um
57:08uh right in between Bandraas and
57:10Charbahar there is a little port town
57:13called Jasque and this would be exactly
57:18the kind of armada you would build in
57:21order to take one of those objectives.
57:24of either Charbahar or Jaskque. And the
57:28reason that you would do it politically
57:30for President Trump is because this
57:33could possibly be a symbolic victory.
57:37You could possibly take the territory
57:41and hold it for weeks. Now, why would
57:44you be able to take the territory and
57:46hold it for weeks? It's because this is
57:48Pakistan.
57:50We haven't even shown the rest of Iran
57:52here. uh Tehran is is is over here. So
57:56maybe we want to Yeah, why don't we uh
57:58bring the other map here as well. So
58:01what we have done, Stephen, is we have
58:03concentrated our forces here in the Gulf
58:06of Oman. This is our carriers, our
58:09destroyers, our battleships, and they
58:11can provide some air cover here for
58:13ships that might pass through uh the
58:16southern part here. So they I'm not
58:17saying this is the only possible
58:19mission. Uh, but those Marines and the
58:2282nd Airborne, they're not helping.
58:24They're not really there to help ships
58:27pass through the straight of Hormuz, but
58:30they're here. Okay. At least the Marines
58:32are here.
58:33>> Where?
58:33>> Uh, we don't they're somewhere in the
58:35straight of in the Gulf of Oman. We
58:37don't know exactly where they are. That
58:39would not be good.
58:40>> You're just saying that cuz some people
58:41can't hear.
58:41>> Yeah, that's right. So, they're in the
58:42Gulf of Oman uh here, which is to the
58:45east of Hormuz. The Gulf, the Persian
58:47Gulf is to the west of Hormuz. So Hormuz
58:50is the true choke point between these
58:52two Gulfs and the Gulf of Oman here is
58:55then what's north of it is the
58:58souththeastern coast of Iran which is
59:03the the least populated part of Iran.
59:06Iran's population is mostly up here
59:08around the word Iran.
59:10>> So you're saying that the US might take
59:12a small part of Iran from here?
59:14>> A small part of Iran
59:15>> with ground troops?
59:16>> With ground troops? That's right. and
59:18literally hold it here uh in order to
59:21get a symbolic victory and in order for
59:24Iran to knock us out, they have to
59:28redirect all of their attention to this.
59:32Uh and this would be this is why I don't
59:34think it's going to work because
59:35ultimately they will do this. Uh but in
59:37the short term in a period of say a few
59:40weeks or so, this uh there's a there's a
59:43chance and I say it's a low chance. I'm
59:45not trying to tell you I would advocate
59:46for this. I would not advocate for this.
59:48I'm trying to explain what these troop
59:51these forces are doing here because
59:54otherwise there's no point in having
59:56these forces here.
59:57>> Okay. So, some questions on this then.
59:59If they if the US do I guess invade Iran
1:00:03from
1:00:04>> capture
1:00:06port little one of these port towns
1:00:07>> from the sort of south east here.
1:00:10>> That's right.
1:00:11>> This would mean that Iran have a target
1:00:14to kill American soldiers.
1:00:15>> That's right. And the cost of losing
1:00:17American soldiers, especially back home
1:00:19in America, would be tremendous.
1:00:22>> You're talking about hundreds dead over
1:00:24a period of at least weeks.
1:00:26>> And this would be just terrible
1:00:28politically for boots to be on the
1:00:30ground and be dying in Iran.
1:00:31>> Well, it will be divisive politically.
1:00:34So for people that are opposed to the
1:00:36war, this will make them even more
1:00:38opposed to the war. But for people that
1:00:41are supporting the war, and this is the
1:00:42part of the politics that I study,
1:00:44Stephen, uh it's important to understand
1:00:47that there's a large part of MAGA that
1:00:49is incredibly supportive of this war. In
1:00:51fact, the opinion polls uh uh tend to
1:00:54show that more MAGA supports regime
1:00:57change uh for Iran than oppose it. So,
1:01:00this is not like MAGA has become Tucker
1:01:03Carlson country or something. This is
1:01:05still Trump country uh here and they
1:01:07want Trump to win. Well, what you are
1:01:10seeing here is that if there are if
1:01:13there are troops that are killed, you
1:01:15are likely going to see, and you're
1:01:16seeing this on Fox News this morning
1:01:19after three more died over the weekend,
1:01:22you're seeing a tremendous amount of
1:01:24support for our troops and therefore the
1:01:27war.
1:01:27>> Okay, so I've got some numbers here
1:01:29>> about public support. Based on recent
1:01:31polling from mid 2026, the ongoing
1:01:34military conflict with Iran remains
1:01:36highly unpopular with the general
1:01:38American public, but support is sharply
1:01:40divided along political lines. Overall,
1:01:43roughly 27 to 34% of Americans support
1:01:47the war, while a solid majority of 53 to
1:01:5257% oppose it. But then when you look at
1:01:54MAGA, it says that 77% to 85% of MAGA
1:01:59support the war. There's a MAGA
1:02:01Republicans and only 5% to 14% of MAGA
1:02:06Republicans oppose the war.
1:02:08>> That's right. So what you are seeing is
1:02:11the divisions in our country which have
1:02:14been building for years
1:02:17are still in existence with this war and
1:02:19they're becoming hardened in this war.
1:02:23And if as deaths occur, this is likely
1:02:27to harden the division, not shift, at
1:02:31least not shift much of MAGA to the
1:02:34anti-war position. And the reason is
1:02:37because just as Trump complained when
1:02:40President Biden pulled out from uh
1:02:43Afghanistan
1:02:44there, this is going to be uh not just a
1:02:47loss for Trump if he pulls out. This
1:02:50will be viewed as a as as an insult to
1:02:53the people who died. And so people will
1:02:56say, "So if we leave, did those people
1:02:58die as a mistake? Was it a mistake? Is
1:03:00their death were their deaths
1:03:02worthless?" That's a hard thing. And
1:03:05that's one of the reasons why when
1:03:07troops die in war for months, this can
1:03:11harden support for a war, possibly even
1:03:14grow it. Over time, yes, it tends to
1:03:17whittle down, but in the in the near
1:03:19term, deaths can actually harden support
1:03:22for the war. And that's a thing that
1:03:24most people aren't really fully grasping
1:03:26yet.
1:03:27>> How real is the risk that the US will do
1:03:29some kind of limited ground operation
1:03:31with boots on the ground in Iran?
1:03:33uh well over 50%. I think it's uh
1:03:37bordering on 70% now. Um and the reasons
1:03:41are that uh number one, the economic
1:03:45crisis that President Trump was trying
1:03:47to prevent and therefore the economic
1:03:49costs that will hurt him later is
1:03:51already starting to become baked in.
1:03:53what you're hearing this morning with
1:03:55the Houthis closing the pipeline area
1:03:58around Yanbu, it's called this port city
1:04:00in the Red Sea where the uh 4 to 5
1:04:03million barrels of Saudi oil is coming
1:04:05out. What you're hear what that is going
1:04:07to do is make the economic crisis even
1:04:09more baked in, even more likely unless
1:04:11it's immediately reversed. And even if
1:04:13it was immediately reversed tomorrow,
1:04:15that could be reversed again the next
1:04:17day after that. this is starting to
1:04:18spiral out of control because it's not
1:04:21just up to President Trump now to to put
1:04:23this genie back in the bottle. President
1:04:25Trump can actually still uh can withdraw
1:04:29and uh but right now Iran has to stop
1:04:33the escalation. It has to let the Red
1:04:35Sea oil flow. It has to allow ships to
1:04:39flow from Hormuz. And Iran is not is in
1:04:43a mood for revenge. Iran is there is
1:04:46emotions coursing through Iran, but it's
1:04:49not um causing Iran to uh uh pull back.
1:04:53Uh it's causing Iran to want revenge.
1:04:55And the leader statement, the Supreme
1:04:57Leader statement just of a couple days
1:04:59ago, this was Saturday, uh two uh US
1:05:02soldiers were tragically killed in
1:05:04Jordan. Um he called it uh what the
1:05:07Supreme Leader did was uh used the
1:05:10phrase that he's going to deliver
1:05:12unforgettable lessons to America.
1:05:15Unforgettable lessons is the exact
1:05:18phrase by the Supreme Leader over the
1:05:19weekend. What you are seeing here,
1:05:22Stephen, is as we have essentially as
1:05:26Iran um started to shoot now shoot at
1:05:29ships here to try to reinforce theou,
1:05:33President Trump up the ante. Now we're
1:05:35in our ninth week, ninth day of bombing
1:05:37in a row. Now Iran is upping the Annie.
1:05:40And Iran is upping the Annie in multiple
1:05:42ways. It's attacking our base in Jordan,
1:05:45which it only rarely done since uh since
1:05:48March, actually. It's now with the
1:05:50Houthis closing the Red Sea. And we
1:05:53haven't yet talked about Kuwait. And we
1:05:55should talk about what happened here
1:05:57over the weekend here in Kuwait because
1:05:59this is a harbinger of what's to come
1:06:02because it shows how ferocious the anger
1:06:05is by Iran and how hard it's going to be
1:06:08to stop this spiral of escalation. And
1:06:12that is what is one of the the that's
1:06:15what's going to lead to President Trump
1:06:17thinking long and hard about putting
1:06:20those ground forces in because we're not
1:06:22making an independent decision now.
1:06:24>> So you said there's a 70% chance Yes.
1:06:27>> that troops could be put on the ground
1:06:29in Iran.
1:06:31>> Yes. I think within I think probably uh
1:06:34within the next month, maybe even
1:06:36shorter than that. It could even be by
1:06:38the end of this week.
1:06:40This is something that I've made for
1:06:42you. I've realized that the direio
1:06:44audience are strivals
1:06:48that we want to accomplish. And one of
1:06:49the things I've learned is that when you
1:06:52aim at the big big big goal, it can feel
1:06:54incredibly psychologically uncomfortable
1:06:58because it's kind of like being stood at
1:06:59the foot of Mount Everest and looking
1:07:00upwards. The way to accomplish your
1:07:02goals is by breaking them down into tiny
1:07:05small steps. And we call this in our
1:07:07team the 1%. And actually this
1:07:09philosophy is highly responsible for
1:07:11much of our success here. So what we've
1:07:13done so that you at home can accomplish
1:07:15any big goal that you have is we've made
1:07:18these 1% diaries and we released these
1:07:20last year and they all sold out. So I
1:07:23asked my team over and over again to
1:07:24bring the diaries back but also to
1:07:26introduce some new colors and to make
1:07:27some minor tweaks to the diary. So now
1:07:29we have a better range for you. So, if
1:07:34you have a big goal in mind and you need
1:07:35a framework and a process and some
1:07:37motivation, then I highly recommend you
1:07:40get one of these diaries before they
1:07:42will sell out once again. And you can
1:07:43get yours at the diary.com.
1:07:46And if you want the link, the link is in
1:07:47the description below.
1:07:49You've shown me on the graph that you've
1:07:51just shown the escalation ladder, you
1:07:54can call it, and and where we are now.
1:07:56What is the most probable next thing
1:07:59that you think happens with this war?
1:08:02The biggest thing I'm worried about is a
1:08:05mass casualty attack against American
1:08:08troops or American civilians.
1:08:10>> Wow.
1:08:11>> Against American troops in the Middle
1:08:14East, but I'm specifically worrying
1:08:15about a barrage of ballistic missiles
1:08:18against our uh naval ships in the Gulf
1:08:20of Oman. So the Iran is showing a uh
1:08:25through its the targeting it's that it's
1:08:28already been doing in the last uh week
1:08:30and a half an exquisite ability to
1:08:33precisely target and um we don't know
1:08:37for sure they're able to track the
1:08:38movement of our naval ships in the Gulf
1:08:40of Oman uh or they're getting help with
1:08:43either the ch from the Chinese or the
1:08:45Russians in doing that. But I'm
1:08:47specifically worried that as this
1:08:50escalates, they've just closed the
1:08:51straight. They've just closed the Red
1:08:53Sea. If we keep going forward, and we'll
1:08:56find out if we're going to if Trump will
1:08:58pull back or not, but if we keep going
1:09:00forward, one of the big things I'm
1:09:02concerned about this week, next week,
1:09:04would be an attack on a ship. Uh, and I
1:09:07think it would be a barrage attack. The
1:09:09second thing I'm concerned about is uh
1:09:12because we are now um literally
1:09:15threatening ground occupation. That's
1:09:17the biggest risk factor for suicide
1:09:19terrorism in my 25 years of studying
1:09:21suicide attacks. We haven't talked about
1:09:24that, Stephen. And the reason we haven't
1:09:26talked about it is because we were
1:09:27pretty far away from the big risk factor
1:09:29of how you start a big suicide terrorist
1:09:32campaign. That is now changing. Um I've
1:09:36talked to my substack about this. glad
1:09:38to talk to you about it now. Uh, but I'm
1:09:41concerned about a mass casualty attack
1:09:45against Americans. This could be against
1:09:47an American airliner. It could be
1:09:50against I mean Americans on a a
1:09:52commercial airliner. This could be um
1:09:55against uh uh Americans, say business uh
1:09:58men in uh Aquaba. So you you might know
1:10:01there have been attacks recently in
1:10:03Aquaba, which is this really lovely
1:10:04resort town. I've never been there. And
1:10:07the uh and the fact is um there are
1:10:09business American businessmen um uh
1:10:12moving all around the Middle East now to
1:10:14build these pipelines. And so I can
1:10:16imagine there being terrorist attacks
1:10:18against the uh the hotels that are
1:10:20staying at uh the um German and um
1:10:24British embassies have just ordered
1:10:26their evacuation. America State
1:10:28Department has issued an advisory over
1:10:30the weekend for Americans to start
1:10:32leaving the region. But I'm concerned
1:10:34about terrorist attack because
1:10:36threatening in or actually doing ground
1:10:39control, controlling pieces of homeland
1:10:42territory is the biggest risk factor for
1:10:45suicide terrorism. That's what causes
1:10:47people more than anything else to strap
1:10:49on bombs to kill others while they're
1:10:52killing themselves. So before we explain
1:10:55in detail, so when you say Stephen, what
1:10:57I'm looking for in the next few weeks,
1:10:59>> I'm seeing the spiral of escalation now
1:11:02occurring. It's a two-sided spiral. It's
1:11:05not just President Trump. Iran is uh uh
1:11:08escalating here as much as Trump, if not
1:11:11more. And uh in this spiral of
1:11:14escalation, there could be a mass
1:11:15casualty attack either against our
1:11:17troops or against American civilians.
1:11:20And the American civilian attack could
1:11:21be anywhere in the world. It could be in
1:11:22Indonesia. It could be London. It could
1:11:24be anywhere. And if that mass casualty
1:11:28event happens, I think what you're going
1:11:31to see is that this is likely going to
1:11:34cause that division we just discussed
1:11:36here to in America, support for the war
1:11:39to harden even more. And you're going to
1:11:42get though intense support for
1:11:45continuing the war now to stop uh mass
1:11:49casualty attacks by Iran in the future.
1:11:52So you have spent some of your career
1:11:55studying terrorist attacks
1:11:57>> and I guess suicide terrorist attacks
1:12:00>> specifically. Yes.
1:12:02>> Give me a view into the research the
1:12:05work you've done there. You've written a
1:12:06book on it.
1:12:06>> Two
1:12:07>> two books on it.
1:12:08>> And then ladder me up to how that's
1:12:10relevant to the moment we're in now. So,
1:12:13shortly after 9/11, this was, remember,
1:12:15America was hit with a a terrorist
1:12:17attack here in uh New York, the World
1:12:19Trade Center, the Pentagon. Uh nearly
1:12:223,000 Americans died that day. I wanted
1:12:25to understand why, and I wanted to
1:12:27understand more. The more I studied it,
1:12:29I noticed that 9/11 was a suicide
1:12:32attack. It wasn't just a terrorist
1:12:34attack. So, I started to collect what
1:12:36became the first complete data set of
1:12:38all suicide attacks around the world. Uh
1:12:41I did this uh at the University of
1:12:43Chicago. I did this with a few research
1:12:46assistants, basically work study
1:12:48students. The suicide terrorism, the
1:12:50reason I studied it, Stephen, was
1:12:52because it's the lung cancer of
1:12:54terrorism. Suicide attacks kill more
1:12:57people in the category of terrorism than
1:13:01all the other different kinds of
1:13:02terrorism combined. The suicide attacks
1:13:05are the biggest killer. Uh it's like
1:13:07lung cancer. We have other kinds of
1:13:09cancers, but lung cancer is the biggest
1:13:11killer. And what is the key risk factor
1:13:14for the lung cancer of suicide
1:13:16terrorism? It's military combat presence
1:13:20on territory the terrorist prize.
1:13:23>> So with suicide terrorism, is it hard to
1:13:25stop? Because you know, we can intercept
1:13:28missiles that are coming over pretty
1:13:29well, it seems, but suicide terrorism
1:13:31seems to be a completely different type
1:13:33of challenge. Suicide terrorism is like
1:13:35a precision guided is like turning a
1:13:38person into a precisiong guided weapon
1:13:40because literally
1:13:43nothing can better identify the most
1:13:47vulnerable point in a crowd, the most
1:13:49vulnerable point in a building, the
1:13:52exact split second to set off the the
1:13:54the explosive better than a human.
1:13:57>> And the how does the US, for example,
1:14:00you're saying two things. You're saying
1:14:01that that attack could happen in the
1:14:04United States, but also it doesn't have
1:14:05to. It could happen anywhere in those
1:14:07regions where there's a high density of
1:14:09Americans or Westerners. Theoretically,
1:14:12>> that's right.
1:14:13>> Because, you know, the Americans could
1:14:14say, "Well, we're not going to let in
1:14:15anybody from those regions. We're going
1:14:17to get more diligent with passport
1:14:19checks, whatever."
1:14:20>> That will happen after the fir, God
1:14:22forbid, I hope I'm wrong, Stephen, but
1:14:26if and when that first attack happens,
1:14:28you're going to see all that come out.
1:14:30You're going to see what can come out.
1:14:31>> You're going to see all the idea of what
1:14:32can we do? Can we do passport checks?
1:14:34Can we do X or Y? What this is right
1:14:37after 911, similar thing happened. Let's
1:14:39hope nothing that large would would
1:14:41happen. But let me just further explain
1:14:43that when I when I um compiled that
1:14:46database and it made a specific
1:14:48prediction. It predicted then that if we
1:14:52invaded and occupied Iraq, we would
1:14:54touch off the largest suicide terrorist
1:14:56campaign in modern times.
1:14:59What is it? What is it about okay
1:15:01invading
1:15:03their country in particular versus
1:15:05bombing their country in particular that
1:15:08causes suicide terrorist attacks from
1:15:11your research? Like what is it? Because
1:15:13bombing them from the sky is is killing
1:15:15people that it's not the killing people
1:15:18part of this that matters. It's the
1:15:20political control part that comes with
1:15:22the ground forces. So the reason to use
1:15:26the ground forces is to impose political
1:15:29control.
1:15:30>> So
1:15:31>> that's not just killing people, Stephen.
1:15:33>> So the reason why America put in ground
1:15:35forces
1:15:36>> is to get political control and that
1:15:40political control means the group
1:15:43controlled doesn't control its way of
1:15:46life.
1:15:46>> It's sort of seen as a deeper violation.
1:15:49Is that ultimately what it is? It's a
1:15:51deeper violation that is uh not in
1:15:54control of the local population. So when
1:15:57we put in ground forces in Afghanistan
1:16:00after we topple the Taliban, we topple
1:16:02the Taliban with their power by the way,
1:16:04but we don't get much suicide attacks in
1:16:08Afghanistan till we start pouring in
1:16:10ground forces in Afghanistan. That comes
1:16:13after we topple the Taliban. So we
1:16:15topple the Taliban in fall 2021 and then
1:16:18we get the suicide terrorism starting
1:16:20several years later in Afghanistan. It's
1:16:23because that's when we're putting in the
1:16:25ground forces.
1:16:26>> So Donald Trump has just posted on Truth
1:16:27Social a few hours ago saying every time
1:16:30Iran kills an American soldier, they
1:16:31will pay for that killing many times
1:16:33over. This directive has been passed
1:16:35onto the Secretary of War, Pete Hexath,
1:16:37chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staffs
1:16:39and his other military leader. And
1:16:41obviously this is in response to losing
1:16:43an American life. and he's very actively
1:16:45tweeting as we speak about the war um
1:16:48tweet after tweet after tweet after
1:16:50tweet on true social. It it it begs the
1:16:53I mean I just don't know what is there a
1:16:57end an achievable endgame or off-ramp
1:17:00here that restores the free shipping
1:17:01through the straight of Hermuz but also
1:17:04allows the United States to retract
1:17:06without appearing to have suffered a a
1:17:07strategic defeat.
1:17:09>> No, Stephen, there is not an achievable
1:17:12offramp. um that ship sailed first when
1:17:16um President Trump decided in the first
1:17:19week in March not to declare he could
1:17:22have declared my advice at that point
1:17:24first week in March was to declare
1:17:26victory and walk away to say all you
1:17:28wanted to do was teach Iran a lesson
1:17:30you'd killed the supreme leader a bunch
1:17:32of other leaders now let's go back uh to
1:17:35negotiate uh with um about Iran's
1:17:38nuclear prayer he did not do that when I
1:17:41was with you in April I was giving a
1:17:44different advice. Um that advice then
1:17:46was to militarily contain Israel. That
1:17:49advice was to keep a lid. Israel was
1:17:51moving into Lebanon doing other things.
1:17:53Keep a lid on Israel militarily. Um
1:17:56President Trump has taken these ideas
1:18:00and I'm not saying because I said them,
1:18:01but he's taken those ideas months too
1:18:03late. If you look at what I'm I think
1:18:06President Trump might think he is trying
1:18:08to militarily contain Israel right now
1:18:11uh with theou I do think he tried to
1:18:13declare victory and and and walk out.
1:18:16But the problem here Stephen is that
1:18:19these are now u a day late and a dollar
1:18:22short. They're just not good enough. So
1:18:24if you wanted to get back to the
1:18:26negotiating track, what exactly are you
1:18:29going to uh offer Iran to come back to
1:18:33the table at this point? The sameou say,
1:18:36"Oh, sure. We're going to now just we're
1:18:37going to we're going to honor theou that
1:18:40we already signed and then we violated
1:18:42over and over and over." You're not
1:18:44that's not credible.
1:18:45>> So is this the forever war?
1:18:47>> No, we're not yet in the forever war
1:18:49stage.
1:18:50>> But you said there's no way out.
1:18:52There's the way out would be if the
1:18:55midterms come and the Democrats win
1:18:58either the House or the House and the
1:19:00Senate and they shut down the money for
1:19:03the war.
1:19:04>> Oh,
1:19:05>> that is a way out.
1:19:06>> Oh, they can do that.
1:19:07>> So, this is Yes. That's what happened in
1:19:10Vietnam.
1:19:10>> They they they can shut down the money
1:19:12for the war.
1:19:13>> They can shut down the That's what
1:19:15Congress did. Yes. Congress has the
1:19:17power. It doesn't use it very often. And
1:19:19the last time I did this was in 1974.
1:19:22The reason I, as I showed you on that
1:19:24escalation ladder, I said there is a
1:19:26stage five, a forever war. We're not at
1:19:28a forever war yet. What would be a
1:19:32forever war would be um uh where that
1:19:35will come. And and the reason I'm
1:19:37defining the the escalation period
1:19:40between now and the midterms is the most
1:19:43crucial period right now. This is going
1:19:47to determine everything. And the and
1:19:48what's going to determine the outcome of
1:19:50the next few months is can America open
1:19:53the straight of form physically. What
1:19:55could easily happen between now and the
1:19:57midterms is President Trump tries to
1:20:00open the straight of form moves or he
1:20:02allows Iran by the way to um he pulls
1:20:05back. He could actually pull back.
1:20:07Either way, at this point, Stephen,
1:20:09there's um uh there's a good chance he
1:20:12will uh lose in the midterms, meaning
1:20:14that the Republicans will lose one or
1:20:16both houses in Congress. And if that
1:20:19happens, then uh whoever takes over
1:20:22control will be a Democrat. They'll be
1:20:24hotly um anti-war. And there will be uh
1:20:28great efforts here to shut down the war,
1:20:30meaning shut down the money for the war.
1:20:33So, it's always about the money.
1:20:34>> I need to get an understanding of the
1:20:36role. So this sort of link between the
1:20:38midterms, the money, and then the war.
1:20:40So the midterms are going to change
1:20:42who's in Congress.
1:20:43>> Yes.
1:20:44>> And then the people in
1:20:45>> who controls it.
1:20:46>> And the people in Congress, they decide
1:20:49how much money the military gets.
1:20:51>> They decide whether or not um they can
1:20:54pass laws, and this is what happened in
1:20:561974,
1:20:58uh to prevent money from being spent on
1:21:00the war.
1:21:01>> And Trump can't overdo that. He
1:21:03>> he can try to work around it. Uh there
1:21:05can be then Supreme Court cases and so
1:21:08forth and so on.
1:21:09>> So even if Democrats win the midterms
1:21:11and try to halt the war, Trump could
1:21:13bypass them because he holds massive
1:21:16constitutional advantages as
1:21:18commander-in-chief. He can simply veto
1:21:20any war powers resolution or funding
1:21:22restriction passed by Congress, which
1:21:24would then require an incredibly
1:21:26difficult 2/3 supermajority in both
1:21:29chambers to override. Furthermore,
1:21:31mirroring the arguments of almost every
1:21:33president since Richard Nixon, Trump
1:21:35could evoke his Article 2 constitutional
1:21:37authority, claiming he has the inherent
1:21:39power to defend America's interests and
1:21:41troops without needing legislative
1:21:44approval. Finally, even if Congress
1:21:46refuses to authorize new funding, the
1:21:48president can use emergency transfer
1:21:50authorities and creative accounting to
1:21:52shuffle existing Pentagon budget funds
1:21:55to keep the military operations running
1:21:56in the short term. You've just defined a
1:21:59constitutional crisis. Congress will
1:22:02think it has the power. President Trump
1:22:04will think he has the power. That is
1:22:07what is a constitutional crisis. And
1:22:10that's why these midterms, as my
1:22:14don't mean to to say it quite in this
1:22:16context, but as you know, I have a book
1:22:18coming out, Our own worst enemies, the
1:22:20preface is called uh the most dangerous
1:22:23elections in our lifetimes. That is why
1:22:25this election coming up will be the most
1:22:28dangerous election in our lifetime
1:22:29because the tensions now are growing. On
1:22:32top of all that, they're not calming
1:22:34down those waters. The Iran war is
1:22:37making all these worse. And what you
1:22:39just read is the tension here that is
1:22:42that could well come because the
1:22:45Democrats are not going to want it to
1:22:47there to be a forever war. and they were
1:22:49going to they'll likely fight really
1:22:51hard once uh once they control the um uh
1:22:56once they control one or both houses of
1:22:58Congress. President Trump will want to
1:23:00fight really hard for his legacy and his
1:23:03um uh domestic agenda, including uh
1:23:06deportations, including ICE. So, this
1:23:09will all come together. These will not
1:23:12be compartmentalized separate issues as
1:23:15we get into the midterms. That's why I'm
1:23:18saying that we're coming the midterms.
1:23:21The midterms. The midterms. We're not
1:23:23heading to a future where it's just
1:23:27about what happens to military bases
1:23:29overseas. It's just about what happens
1:23:31to ships overseas, what's happened in
1:23:33Hormuz. These lines, the domestic
1:23:38political violence in the United States,
1:23:40I call this the era of violent populism.
1:23:43and the growing tensions in the country
1:23:46over the Iran war. These two lines, the
1:23:50domestic uh crisis and the international
1:23:53crisis are about to come together. And
1:23:55as I told my research team in the summer
1:23:57of 2024 and talks I gave in Chicago, my
1:24:01nightmare, they asked me what my
1:24:02nightmare scenario was. This was in the
1:24:04fall of 2024. And I said, "My nightmare
1:24:07scenario is we have uh an international
1:24:11crisis at the same time as we have an
1:24:14election in the fall of 2024. We really
1:24:18didn't have that. Now we do." And this
1:24:20is we're heading into the fall of 2026.
1:24:23And this was always my nightmare
1:24:25scenario.
1:24:25>> Why? What does that mean? What are those
1:24:27two things colliding?
1:24:28>> Those two things colliding start to look
1:24:31like the 1960s.
1:24:32>> And what happened in the 1960s? the
1:24:341960s, we had mass uh demonstrations. We
1:24:38had anti-war violence, we had anti-war
1:24:41terrorism with the weather underground,
1:24:44we had multiple assassinations uh that
1:24:47occurred. Martin Luther King, it was uh
1:24:50Bobby Kennedy was assassinated, a
1:24:52convention in Chicago, there was just
1:24:54mass uh demonstration. Mayor Daly in
1:24:56Chicago gave a shoot to kill order. I
1:24:59already mentioned to you the weather
1:25:00underground um uh string of bombs that
1:25:03they set off. So what we faced in the
1:25:051960s was the collision of domestic uh
1:25:09political tension with an unpopular war.
1:25:14That's how you got the chaos of the
1:25:151960s. I have a whole chapter in the
1:25:17book about the 1960s and why it was so
1:25:20particularly intense.
1:25:21>> So do you think that Trump is likely to
1:25:23lose the midterms as things stand? Do
1:25:25you think the Republicans are likely to
1:25:26lose
1:25:27>> here? Here's here's the thing. If um if
1:25:30we have a mass casualty attack, this
1:25:33will increase the odds of Trump uh and
1:25:36the Republicans winning in the midterms.
1:25:39And I think if uh we uh have a world
1:25:43economic crisis without the mass
1:25:44casualty attack, uh then I think it's
1:25:47likely that the Republicans will lose in
1:25:50the midterms.
1:25:51>> Okay. So I think we have the reason I
1:25:53can't give you a clean uh answer to this
1:25:56which I know people want they they would
1:25:58because we have multiple specific issues
1:26:02here that are now as part of the
1:26:05spiraling violence
1:26:06>> and three 3 months isn't awful long.
1:26:09>> It's a long time because that mass
1:26:11casualty attack could happen in in
1:26:13October and it doesn't have to be
1:26:15command directed by Iran. It can be it
1:26:18can occur the mass casualty attack
1:26:21against Americans uh can occur because
1:26:24it's an inspired attack. The Iran the
1:26:27the supreme leader is issuing statements
1:26:30that sound almost like Baghdadi that was
1:26:33the leader of ISIS issuing statements to
1:26:36encourage inspired attacks. That was the
1:26:39suicide uh attacks in Paris in November
1:26:422015 that killed over a hundred people.
1:26:45That was San Bernardino. So we we we saw
1:26:49leaders inspire attacks before and the
1:26:53Supreme Leader statements are just are
1:26:56eerily close to the same words.
1:27:00Is the current US air campaign
1:27:03sustainable? You hinted at this earlier
1:27:05on that actually the US might be running
1:27:07out of some of their their weapons. Um,
1:27:10it's estimated that the daily cost of
1:27:13this this war for America is around $2
1:27:15billion a day and Iran's ability to
1:27:18continue these sort of asymmetric
1:27:20attacks with drones and other things
1:27:22>> doesn't come as at such a high cost and
1:27:24seems from the example you gave with the
1:27:26bowl earlier on to be more sustainable.
1:27:27So, is there actually a risk here that
1:27:29the US will run out of weapons? Um, I
1:27:33think that there's a risk we'll run out
1:27:35of interceptors to shoot down missiles,
1:27:38but even that's pretty low because
1:27:40what's really happening in our arsenal
1:27:43of weapons, Stephen, is we are using a
1:27:47lot of interceptor, especially say
1:27:49Patriot missile interceptors to shoot
1:27:51down incoming ballistic missiles, but
1:27:53we're drawing from stocks um in Asia and
1:27:57in Europe. This is one of the reasons
1:27:59Zalinsky can't get Patriot missiles, uh,
1:28:01at least not very many of them. It's
1:28:03because we're now moving most of the
1:28:05stocks here for the Persian Gulf. So, I
1:28:08think that there's some chance we'll run
1:28:09out of the, uh, those interceptors, but
1:28:11even there, I think it's low. But
1:28:13literally, in terms of the bombs, it's
1:28:16it's an gross exaggeration to expect
1:28:19that uh, we are going to run out of
1:28:22bombs to drop from aircraft. And there's
1:28:25two reasons for that. In order to make a
1:28:28precision bomb, most people don't know
1:28:31what it takes these days. And it's true,
1:28:33we can spend a lot of money making a
1:28:35precision bomb, but we can literally
1:28:36take dumb bombs, 500 lb dumb bombs, and
1:28:40strap a backpack on them that will uh
1:28:43connect with GPS and have little uh
1:28:46cords to the fins of the bombs in order
1:28:49to turn a dumb bomb into a precision
1:28:52bomb. Those fanny packs are about 20,000
1:28:55bucks, maybe 25. So, we can make them
1:28:58much more easily than people think.
1:29:01>> So, what do you think the United
1:29:02States/Trump's
1:29:05objective is at this particular point?
1:29:07Like, what is the goal? The the real
1:29:09goal? Cuz there's lots of press
1:29:10conferences I see where they say it's
1:29:11nuclear weapons, it's this, that, and
1:29:13the other. I
1:29:13>> I think President Trump's goal between
1:29:16now and the midterms is very simple. A
1:29:19symbolic victory.
1:29:20>> And what would that look like? That
1:29:22would look like a victory that would
1:29:24hold for uh a week, maybe two weeks, and
1:29:29that would be uh an opportunity to show
1:29:31that President Trump fought back. I
1:29:34think that's how this would be framed by
1:29:36uh uh President Trump's supporters and
1:29:38those who support the war. And it would
1:29:41be uh I think President Trump would say,
1:29:43"And this shows what we can do if you
1:29:45let us win."
1:29:48I think his words would be a little
1:29:49different.
1:29:50>> Do you think he's stuck? Yes.
1:29:52>> Do you think he knows he's stuck?
1:29:54>> I've never met President Trump. Um, my
1:29:57research here, Stephen, has always
1:30:00looked at the actual words by decision
1:30:03makers. What I can tell you is what his
1:30:05incentives look like. And the incentives
1:30:08that I've laid out have been quite
1:30:10predictive of his behavior.
1:30:11>> Do you want him to call you?
1:30:13>> Yes.
1:30:15>> And if he calls you, what is the advice
1:30:17you would give him on what to do next?
1:30:19Uh what I would do is try to design a
1:30:23several year strategy to build a better
1:30:26balance of power in the region that we
1:30:29could over a period of time uh stabilize
1:30:33the world and stabilize the region. And
1:30:36I think that is the big issue that's
1:30:39being missed right now.
1:30:40>> But if he says, "Listen, Robert, what do
1:30:42I do in the next three months because
1:30:43I've got these midterms coming up?"
1:30:44>> Then the answer is don't call me.
1:30:48I I want to help President Trump, but I
1:30:52want to help America for real. Uh these
1:30:56are not necessarily at odds, but the
1:30:59bottom line here is that um everything I
1:31:03have to say to President Trump about the
1:31:05next 3 months, we've just done on this
1:31:07podcast, Stephen. Um, but I am
1:31:10absolutely delighted to talk about how
1:31:13to actually build a more secure future
1:31:17for America and for the Gulf. And I just
1:31:21don't think that's that's happening. And
1:31:23I don't think the uh the pressure that
1:31:26this must lead to an electoral victory
1:31:28for President Trump is likely to uh uh
1:31:33make the the the true security for
1:31:36America and the Gulf more likely. In
1:31:38fact, it's going to go the other way
1:31:39around. It will encourage the escalation
1:31:41trap. So, that's why I'm I am I'm stuck
1:31:44by my own logic of the escalation trap
1:31:47uh here. It's literally um we we have to
1:31:51move past the idea that uh the only
1:31:56acceptable option is an option that
1:31:59guarantees
1:32:02um political success for an individual
1:32:05even if it means the president of the
1:32:07United States.
1:32:08>> What do you think Russia and China
1:32:12who are often positioned as adversaries
1:32:14of the United States? What do you think
1:32:15they're thinking right now? And what do
1:32:16they what do they want to happen? You
1:32:18know, I guess China's being hurt by the
1:32:19oil situation. Russia's got their own
1:32:21situation going on with the Ukraine.
1:32:23What are they thinking?
1:32:24>> Uh I think China does not want there to
1:32:27be global instability. Uh but at the
1:32:30same time, they don't want this to be uh
1:32:34a situation where Iran comes out
1:32:37smashed. I think that is um uh that's
1:32:41that's simply not in the cart. I also
1:32:44don't think China is going to insert
1:32:46itself in a very forceful way. I think
1:32:50the idea that Iran might come out and
1:32:52militarily support the United States
1:32:54here or militarily support with its own
1:32:56forces Iran is not likely to happen. So
1:32:59I think that what you were
1:33:00>> Why don't they want Iran smashed to
1:33:02China?
1:33:03>> For President Xi um he explained quite a
1:33:07bit of this at the summit. He said to
1:33:08President Trump, "You're a declining
1:33:10power. Are you going to uh fall into
1:33:14what he called the Thusidity trap?
1:33:16Meaning, are you going to launch a
1:33:18preventive war against China in Asia?
1:33:22And that's what President Xi said.
1:33:24>> What about Russia?
1:33:25>> What Russia is seeing is an opportunity
1:33:29to squeeze Europe economically.
1:33:32Uh so I believe that what has been
1:33:36happening in the last few weeks here,
1:33:38the last month is that Ukraine has
1:33:40actually been gaining
1:33:43uh uh not just strength with drones but
1:33:45in a specific area called Crimea in uh
1:33:49which uh Russia took and Putin took in
1:33:522014. There's been a mass exodus out of
1:33:56Crimea in the last weeks.
1:33:59Ukraine is putting more and more
1:34:01pressure on the supply lines coming into
1:34:04Crimea and also coming into Ukraine from
1:34:07Russia. And what Putin, I think, is uh
1:34:11is is uh wants to have happen is that um
1:34:15he will likely escalate more, put more
1:34:20pressure on Europe at exactly the time
1:34:23in the fall when the world economic
1:34:25crisis is growing because of Iran. And
1:34:29that is going to squeeze Europe, make it
1:34:32hard for Europe to fulfill the
1:34:34commitment they just made to uh Zalinsky
1:34:37of 80 billion more dollars. I guess my
1:34:39my last question then before I go to the
1:34:41diary is um if you were to predict how
1:34:45the next couple of months play out, what
1:34:47would your prediction be? And this is a
1:34:49on a on probability 51% probability of
1:34:53outcomes. What happens next? I I think
1:34:56we're going to uh in the next few months
1:35:00cross the threshold with ground
1:35:02operations into either one of the
1:35:05islands or part of the coast of Iran
1:35:08because the world economic crisis is
1:35:11going to grow. The price of gasoline in
1:35:13the United States is likely to grow and
1:35:16President Trump is going to be even more
1:35:18desperate to try to find a way to look
1:35:23make it at least appear as if he has a
1:35:26plan to open hormones. It may not be
1:35:28real. It may only be symbolic. But I
1:35:31think Stephen that the uh where we are
1:35:34heading is um uh the more the crisis the
1:35:40world economic crisis increases and if
1:35:43there's a mass casualty attack the more
1:35:45that crisis increases the more President
1:35:49Trump is under pressure to demonstrate
1:35:52he has a way to open hormuz even if it's
1:35:55far off and he needs a down payment on
1:35:58that. He needs something to show
1:36:01tangibly and I think that's where the
1:36:03pressure will come from for crossing
1:36:04into stage three.
1:36:05>> I think it's worth saying in these
1:36:07conversations as well that there are 90
1:36:09plus million Iranians who currently live
1:36:11in Iran and who are caught in the midst
1:36:14of this craziness and chaos. And
1:36:15sometimes in these conversations we kind
1:36:17of don't really think about the fact
1:36:18that there's a nation that's just bigger
1:36:20than the nation I come from, the United
1:36:21Kingdom, who are right in the heart of
1:36:23this. And so every time Trump says he's
1:36:25bombed more people over the weekends or
1:36:27he's firing bombs, I always think about
1:36:28the the real families that are caught
1:36:30right in in the midst of all of this
1:36:32that didn't choose this war that are
1:36:35living in an environment where bombs are
1:36:36dropping on their heads. And I think for
1:36:37everybody all around the world that
1:36:38listen to this show, whether you're in
1:36:40the UK or the United States or Australia
1:36:42or Canada or wherever you are, South
1:36:44America, Asia, wherever, Africa, it's
1:36:47worth taking a second just to imagine
1:36:48what it would be like to know that the
1:36:51United States are dropping lots of bombs
1:36:54on the nation in which you live and how
1:36:55that would feel psychologically, how
1:36:57that would feel for your children, how
1:36:59that would feel for for you yourself,
1:37:00how that would impact your day-to-day
1:37:02life. And also I guess the uncertainty
1:37:03of not knowing when it's going to end,
1:37:05if it's going to end, and also hearing
1:37:07this term escalation trap and thinking
1:37:09that you know this is actually going to
1:37:10escalate and troops are going to come
1:37:11into my country. And so there's a real
1:37:13human cost to this which sometimes we
1:37:15leave out of these conversations.
1:37:16>> And I have students um uh and at the
1:37:19University of Chicago who um are
1:37:21Iranian, they have families in Iran uh
1:37:25and they ask me questions about this all
1:37:28the time. And sadly, what I have to tell
1:37:30them is that real hope for the Iranian
1:37:34people is 5 or 10 years away. And as
1:37:38this war escalates, it pushes closer to
1:37:4010 than five.
1:37:42We have a closing tradition on this
1:37:44podcast where the last guest leaves a
1:37:45question for the next. The question left
1:37:46for you is if you could go back to a
1:37:49certain time and see something occur or
1:37:52ask someone something you've always
1:37:54wondered about, what slash who would
1:37:58that person slash place be and why?
1:38:03>> I think the key person I would ask would
1:38:07be uh Franklin Delanor Roosevelt. He
1:38:10died before we dropped the atomic bombs.
1:38:14I would want to know from him when he
1:38:18was developing uh and supporting the
1:38:21atomic bombs. Did he imagine the world
1:38:25that would be created by the atomic
1:38:28bombs? Because in my lifetime, war has
1:38:32been a defining feature of my work. Uh
1:38:36but uh the uh the prospects of of
1:38:39nuclear war have always overhung quite a
1:38:43bit of our work. We never want to get to
1:38:45anything like that. But I'd like to know
1:38:48from the person who had the most
1:38:52authority power uh in order to make that
1:38:55future happen who never even saw it,
1:38:59didn't even see it happen, but knew it
1:39:01was coming. I'd like to know from him
1:39:03what did he think was truly going to
1:39:06come because I think that this would be
1:39:10uh uh extremely useful to know whether
1:39:13or not our leaders truly truly how far
1:39:17out they can really see and understand
1:39:20how much their decisions today shape the
1:39:22world for decades to come.
1:39:24>> Robert, thank you. Um we're very excited
1:39:26for your book September 22nd. So, do we
1:39:28have a pre-order link yet? It's just up.
1:39:31Actually, literally, it's just up. So,
1:39:32yes,
1:39:33>> I have to say when we first sat down,
1:39:35you said a bunch of things in terms of
1:39:37what would happen next. And I'm not sure
1:39:38I believed them all
1:39:40>> because I don't know anything about war
1:39:41and they and you never really think
1:39:43about the psychology changes both at
1:39:45home, but also where the bombs are
1:39:47dropping. And it does appear that you've
1:39:50been largely correct about what you what
1:39:52you said would happen. this escalation
1:39:55that happens across all wars that has
1:39:57happened also in Ukraine and Russia at
1:39:59the same time but now we're seeing play
1:40:00out in Iran. So I have to give you your
1:40:02credit because you have been
1:40:04unfortunately you've been right I should
1:40:06say I would agree with the word
1:40:07unfortunately. So, this is uh um part of
1:40:11me would like to be happy about this,
1:40:13but the truth is uh and this is what I
1:40:15just was talking to my 97year-old
1:40:18mother-in-law about is um uh I told her
1:40:21that you had invited me again. She's 97
1:40:24years old, can't even get out of bed,
1:40:25Stephen. And I told her that um it was
1:40:29it was one of the the saddest things I
1:40:31had to agree to. And it's because of
1:40:33what it really means. The reason you're
1:40:36having me here is because things are bad
1:40:38for our country and I want nothing more
1:40:39than for things to be better for our
1:40:41country.
1:40:42>> Well, Robert, thank you so much for
1:40:43coming back and um you know, if we do
1:40:44come back again and convene, I hope next
1:40:47time it's on better times because we're
1:40:48analyzing how it all resulted in peace
1:40:51for everybody, especially the people
1:40:52that are living and around right now.
1:40:53>> Robert, thank you.
1:40:54>> Thank you.
1:40:55>> YouTube have this new crazy algorithm
1:40:57where they know exactly what video you
1:40:59would like to watch next based on AI and
1:41:01all of your viewing behavior. And the
1:41:03algorithm says that this video is the
1:41:06perfect video for you. It's different
1:41:08for everybody looking right now. Check
1:41:10this video out and I bet you you might
1:41:12love it.

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