Understanding Causal Reasoning — Transcript

Full transcript

1. 0:00causal reasoning is a way we can
2. 0:02evaluate several possible explanations
3. 0:03to determine which explanation best
4. 0:06accounts for the outcome often people
5. 0:09want to make an argument about why
6. 0:10something has happened or whether
7. 0:12something is likely to happen in order
8. 0:15to make that kind of an argument it is
9. 0:17necessary to say something about what
10. 0:19has caused or is likely to cause a given
11. 0:22event or outcome being able to establish
12. 0:25what caused what allows people to make
13. 0:28many different types of arguments first
14. 0:31by using causal connections we can offer
15. 0:33explanations of events or outcomes that
16. 0:35have occurred that is we can answer the
17. 0:38question why did X happen second causal
18. 0:43connections can help us make predictions
19. 0:45if we've determined that at least
20. 0:48generally X causes Y that is when X is
21. 0:51in place Y is likely to happen then we
22. 0:54can predict future instances of Y
23. 0:57finally establishing causal connections
24. 1:00allows us to determine who or what is
25. 1:03responsible for a particular event or
26. 1:05outcome assigning responsibility is
27. 1:08important for many reasons one reason is
28. 1:11that if we identify something as a
29. 1:13problem that we'd like to address
30. 1:14knowing who or what caused the problem
31. 1:17is necessary for dealing with it if you
32. 1:20decide that you want to make sure B
33. 1:22never happens again it's essential to
34. 1:24figure out what caused beat to happen in
35. 1:26the first place
36. 1:27there are some key things to keep in
37. 1:29mind as you engage in causal reasoning
38. 1:31or evaluating the reasoning of others
39. 1:34first you should be aware of a crucial
40. 1:37distinction between correlation and
41. 1:40causation put simply correlation occurs
42. 1:45when two things tend to happen together
43. 1:47it refers to an association or
44. 1:50relationship between the two things when
45. 1:53someone says that a and B are correlated
46. 1:56that means there's some kind of
47. 1:58connection between a and B perhaps a
48. 2:01person who conducted data analysis found
49. 2:03that when a was high B was also high or
50. 2:07that when a decreased B also decreased
51. 2:10but note that establishing correlations
52. 2:14does not say anything about causation
53. 2:18causation refers to a specific kind of
54. 2:21relationship in which one thing is the
55. 2:24reason another thing happened causation
56. 2:28goes beyond simply saying that a and B
57. 2:30are related or correlated it's much more
58. 2:33important to critical thinking to claim
59. 2:35causality such as a causes B for example
60. 2:40consider two aspects of a class that can
61. 2:42be measured grades and attendance a
62. 2:45professor might keep track of the
63. 2:48tenants throughout the semester along
64. 2:50with of course tracking the students
65. 2:51grades at the end of the semester he
66. 2:54looks at a spreadsheet and notices that
67. 2:56students who have high attendance scores
68. 2:58also have high grades
69. 3:00whereas students who have attended class
70. 3:02infrequently have low grades he might
71. 3:06conclude that attendance and grades are
72. 3:08correlated that is there's a
73. 3:11relationship between attendance and
74. 3:13grades however based solely on the
75. 3:16single premise when attendance is high
76. 3:19grades are high and vice-versa he cannot
77. 3:22make the argument that regular
78. 3:24attendance causes higher grades the fact
79. 3:28that these two factors vary together
80. 3:30when one is high the others high when
81. 3:32one's low the others low is not enough
82. 3:35to establish a causal relationship
83. 3:37between them one causes the other the
84. 3:41professor would need additional evidence
85. 3:43to justify a causal claim about the
86. 3:45relationship between attendance and
87. 3:47grades in addition to recognizing the
88. 3:49difference between correlation there's
89. 3:52an association and causation the
90. 3:55association is such that a causes B you
91. 3:59should also recognize that causal
92. 4:01relationships involve time and location
93. 4:06generally causality involves events that
94. 4:09are close in time and location but
95. 4:12that's not always the case one of the
96. 4:14reasons why engaging in causal reasoning
97. 4:16in order to make an argument about
98. 4:18causation is so difficult is that causes
99. 4:21can occur long before and or far away
100. 4:24from their effects
101. 4:26another con
102. 4:27locating factor is that many events and
103. 4:29outcomes can have both direct and
104. 4:32indirect causes a causes B which causes
105. 4:36C and so on a direct cause is the event
106. 4:41closest in time and or space to the
107. 4:44outcome you're trying to explain
108. 4:46indirect causes are those things that
109. 4:49preceded the direct cause and in some
110. 4:52way contribute to the chain of events
111. 4:54leading to the final outcome you're
112. 4:55concerned with take for example a large
113. 4:59forest fire the direct cause might have
114. 5:02been a lightning strike that hit one
115. 5:04tree causing it to catch on fire but
116. 5:06there may be indirect causes that made
117. 5:09that area of forest more susceptible for
118. 5:11fire such that a single tree catching on
119. 5:14fire resulted in a very widespread
120. 5:16forest fire maybe the area had been
121. 5:19experiencing a drought so the trees and
122. 5:20undergrowth are really dry another
123. 5:24important distinction is between
124. 5:25necessary causes and sufficient causes
125. 5:28you've already learned about the
126. 5:30difference between necessary and
127. 5:32sufficient premises the same distinction
128. 5:34applies to causes a necessary cause is a
129. 5:38condition that must exist in order for a
130. 5:42certain effect to occur if a doesn't
131. 5:44happen then B can't happen a sufficient
132. 5:48cause is one that is enough for the
133. 5:50effect to occur a alone is required in
134. 5:53order for B to happen for most complex
135. 5:56problems it's unlikely that any one
136. 5:59cause will be sufficient there are two
137. 6:02main ways that causal arguments are used
138. 6:05first they are put forth in order to
139. 6:07explain a specific event outcome or
140. 6:10phenomenon the 2008 economic crisis is
141. 6:13just one example of the broad range of
142. 6:16social economic political and cultural
143. 6:18events that people seek explanations for
144. 6:21causal reasoning can help us wrestle
145. 6:24with different possible explanations to
146. 6:26figure out which one seems to best
147. 6:27account for the outcome causal
148. 6:31relationships can help us explain how
149. 6:33events are related but we also want to
150. 6:35be able to make predictions and plan for
151. 6:37the future understanding why the 2008
152. 6:40crisis occurred
153. 6:41is useful but it's especially useful if
154. 6:44we can take that explanation and use it
155. 6:46to try to prevent such a crisis from
156. 6:48occurring again causal arguments allow
157. 6:51us to understand the relationship
158. 6:52between various factors and use that
159. 6:55understanding to develop plans and
160. 6:56policies to either cause a specific
161. 6:59outcome or prevent an outcome if we can
162. 7:02make predictions based on our knowledge
163. 7:04of what has happened in the past and why
164. 7:06then we can predict when it'll happen
165. 7:08again
166. 7:09or change our behavior so that it
167. 7:11doesn't happen again
168. 7:12these plans and predictions are only as
169. 7:15strong as the causal explanations on
170. 7:17which they're based causal reasoning is
171. 7:20an effective tool for critical thinking
172. 7:22not only can we say that two events
173. 7:24occurred together we can explain why