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UFC Predictions Cortes-Acosta vs Walker | Full Card Betting Breakdown — Transcript

by Lucrative James · 15,041 words · 2,062 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00Most people watch MMA for fun, but in
0:02this channel, we watch it to get paid.
0:04This weekend, the UFC is at the Meta
0:06Apex for a banger main event. Shawn
0:09Brady taking on G. Actually, scratch
0:11that, lads. I have some breaking news.
0:13Sha Brady has pulled out of his fight
0:15with Gabriel Bombfi because of a staff
0:17infection in his knee. So, instead, this
0:19weekend, we're getting a short notice
0:21heavyweight banger. Wardo Cortez Costa
0:24is taking on Johnny Walker in [music]
0:26the new main event this weekend. And in
0:28this video, I'm going to go through
0:30every single fight on the upcoming UFC
0:32fight [music] card, giving you my
0:33betting breakdowns, predictions, and
0:35analysis for every single fight on the
0:36card. I love the fact the UFC is back in
0:39the good old meta apex this [music]
0:40weekend because it's a smaller octagon
0:42in the Apex. That means there's more
0:44violence, more potential for finishes,
0:46more exchanges in close range, and
0:49hopefully more chances for us to make
0:51money. [music] This week in the main
0:52event of the evening, we have an
0:53extremely short nose heavyweight banger
0:56as only eight days away from fight
0:58night. [music] Waldo Cortez A Costa and
1:00Johnny Walker agree to face off in the
1:02octagon. We also have in the co-main
1:04event of the evening, we have Vera
1:05Janderroa taking on Tatiana Suarez. Vera
1:09fresh off a title shot loss. She looks
1:11to get back into winning ways against
1:13one of the greatest fighters we've ever
1:15seen in women's MMA that somehow has not
1:17become champion. Tatiana Suarez puts her
1:2012 and1 record [music] on the line. That
1:22is a grappler's delight in the women's
1:24strawweight division. We also have Davy
1:26Grant, the Bishop's Gate Banger, the
1:28banger from Bishop Oakland taking on
1:30Elijah Smith. That is a veteran versus
1:32Prospect matchup if I've ever seen one.
1:34The boy Sukyo, one of my favorite
1:37fighters, is back taking on Wellington
1:39Turman, a guy that has won me a lot of
1:40money in the past. Sukyongo, [music]
1:42will he do it again? Boys, we have all
1:44of those fights, plus a bunch more on
1:46this fight card, and I'm going to go
1:47through them all with you in one moment.
1:50So, without further ado, run [music] the
1:51damn intro, and I'll see you on the
1:53other side.
1:55[music]
2:00What's going on, boys? We're back again.
2:02Like I say every week, the Paramount Era
2:04doesn't sleep. They haven't given me a
2:06break in about 9 months, but it doesn't
2:08matter cuz we've been cashing big, big
2:09bucks. Unfortunately, we took a L on
2:12that UFC 333 card. And as you know, I
2:14pre-record these before the fight card
2:16that was last out. So, I can't tell you
2:19the results for the previous fight card
2:21that just came out today. Depending on
2:23when you're watching it, that was the Mo
2:24Caro versus Tom Nolan fight card.
2:26Hopefully, we won on that fight card. I
2:28thought it was a pretty tough fight card
2:30in general in terms of the betting odds.
2:31It was hard to find value. Hopefully, we
2:33won. Prior to that, we took a L 5 unit L
2:36on UFC 333. And prior to that, we was on
2:40a generational run with a very small
2:42amount of losses and massive amount of
2:44wins almost every week for literally the
2:46previous 6 months. So, I am looking to
2:48finish the year strong. We only have a
2:50couple of months left of the year, boys.
2:522026 has gone super fast. It's been a
2:54roller coaster of a year. It started off
2:56very bad for me in terms of results.
2:58Then it went extremely good, better than
3:00I could ever imagine. So, very happy at
3:02the moment. I'm in a good headsp space
3:04in terms of the betting and I'm looking
3:05to close the year out strong, boys. So
3:08without further ado, let's close the
3:09year out strong. Let's get straight into
3:12the fight card with the main event of
3:13the evening. We have a short notice late
3:15fill-in heavyweight matchup that was
3:17made only 8 days before the actual fight
3:20takes place. So super short notice for
3:22these guys. It is Wardo Cortez Aosta
3:25taking on Johnny Walker. Waldo Cortez
3:27Aosta coming into this fight with a
3:28record of 17 wins, four losses. Johnny
3:30Walker has a record of 23 wins and 10
3:33losses. This fight was made today on the
3:35day of recording. So, currently there
3:37are no odds out for this matchup. All
3:38right, here we go, boys. I already
3:40recorded a full breakdown for Bombi
3:42versus Brady. It was edited. It was
3:45ready to go. And then we get wind of a
3:47late notice switch up. Shawn Brady steps
3:50out because of a staff infection, his
3:51fight is canceled. And now we get this
3:53short notice matchup. And the first
3:54thing I want to say about this matchup
3:55is that since it is so short notice, I'm
3:58pretty sure that's going to affect the
3:59fight in a big way. You know, if it's a
4:01short notice, like three or four weeks,
4:03usually fighters can get their weight
4:04down. and they can, you know, be semi on
4:06point in a month, but 8 days, that's not
4:09a lot of time to prepare for your
4:10opponent. Now, they are at heavyweight,
4:12so they're not going to have to worry
4:13too much about getting in shape or
4:15they're not going to have to worry too
4:16much about cutting weight, but I mean,
4:18most of their prep is going to be just
4:19getting in shape in terms of fitness,
4:21making sure their cardio is on point,
4:24especially as this is a five round
4:25fight. And then they'll be able to spend
4:27a short amount of time on stylistics. I
4:29did a little bit of research, boys, to
4:31see what these guys have been doing
4:33recently leading up to fight time. Since
4:35it's such a short notice matchup, these
4:37guys could be sitting on the sofa eating
4:39donuts for all we know. Unfortunately,
4:41on Waldo Cortez, A Costa's social media
4:43accounts, I can't find much evidence of
4:45him doing anything. His last post was in
4:47September, so we don't really know what
4:49this guy's been up to. I'm sure he's
4:51training, but who the hell knows? On the
4:52Johnny Walker side, it's a little bit
4:54different. He definitely posted a few
4:55training videos in the last week or so.
4:58So, I know he's at least been in the gym
5:00leading up to the fight. How often, I
5:02don't really know, but he has been in
5:03the gym getting training on with guys
5:05like Ronny Marx, Marcelo Nunees, who are
5:08Brazilian grapplers who have competed in
5:09Bellator and PFL. Also, during my
5:11research, I found this banger of a video
5:14and some behindthe-scenes footage inside
5:16Johnny Walker's training camp. Have a
5:18look.
5:20[music]
5:26>> [music]
5:31>> So there it is. Johnny Walker training
5:33hard as you can see. But in all
5:35seriousness, boys, this is a it's an
5:37interesting fight for me. You know,
5:38before I tape studied this fight, and it
5:40is a late notice tape study as the fight
5:43was announced today. But as soon as I
5:44heard the fight announcement, I thought
5:46to myself, all right, it seems like a
5:48pretty easy Waldo Corteza win. after
5:50tape study. I'm leaning that it's not as
5:53easy as I thought it would be. And I'll
5:55explain why. Johnny Walker's up at
5:56heavyweight now, right? So, we need to
5:58talk about that. So, on the one hand,
5:59Johnny Walker may benefit from being up
6:01at heavyweight cuz the guys at
6:03heavyweight are not as fast to be
6:04honest. Nowhere near as fast as the guys
6:06down at light heavyweight. And Johnny
6:08Walker is a pretty fast, dynamic,
6:10athletic guy. So, he's going to be one
6:11of the fastest, most dynamic, most
6:13athletic heavyweights on the roster. So,
6:15that's a good thing. Obviously, the
6:16negative though is that he's fighting
6:18bigger men, right? He's fighting
6:19stronger men. He's fighting more durable
6:21men. And not only that, he's fighting
6:22men who hit harder, right? Which is
6:24really the big issue cuz Johnny Walker's
6:26issue throughout his entire career, even
6:29going back to the regional scene days,
6:30have really been his chin issues, right?
6:32He can get knocked out by fighters who
6:34don't even hit that hard. I honestly
6:36wouldn't call Jamal Hill, Cory Anderson,
6:39and even Magamemed and Klay that heavy
6:42of hitters, but they all completely iced
6:44him. And it's really not only that
6:46because there's many other fights where
6:47he's getting badly badly hurt and yes,
6:49he may not got knocked out. He comes
6:51back to win like the Ryan Span fight,
6:52but he is still getting hurt in these
6:54contests. Coming up against someone like
6:56Waldo Cortez Costa, who again, I don't
6:58think hits that hard, but he surely hits
7:01hard enough to turn the switch off on
7:03Johnny Walker's brain. Now, something
7:04interesting that stood out to me when I
7:06watched tape is that Johnny Walker has
7:07changed his style a lot from back in the
7:10day, right? He's gradually gradually
7:11changed his style. It come many years
7:13ago now. You know, it's not like he
7:14changed his style in the last year or
7:15so. It was honestly like 3, four years
7:17ago where he really started to change
7:19his style. And he started to implement a
7:21lot more footwork into his game. He
7:23started to implement a lot more leg
7:24kicks into his game. He started to
7:26implement a lot more distance strikes
7:28into his game, like long range jabs and
7:30teps. Before that, he was a lot more
7:32wild. You would see a lot more spinning
7:33[ __ ] from Johnny Walker. You would see a
7:35lot more flying knees from Johnny
7:37Walker. And while he still has that in
7:38his back pocket, he doesn't do it
7:40nowhere near as much as he used to. And
7:42I think it has benefited him. It's also
7:44left him in some really boring lowish
7:47volume fights that we tend to forget
7:49like the fight against Thiago Santos or
7:51Dominic Reyes. However, overall, I do
7:54think it's extended his career, stopped
7:56him from being knocked out more and got
7:57him some decent wins like when he was a
7:59big underdog to Mingyang Zang. You know,
8:01his outside leg kicking style really won
8:04him that fight as a plus 300 underdog.
8:06The reason I mention all that is because
8:07I think the way Johnny Walker has
8:09adapted his game could actually serve
8:11him quite well in this fight. Look, he
8:13can still get knocked out, but one of
8:14the biggest issues that we've seen on
8:16the side of Waldo Cortez A Costa is of
8:18course his grappling and that was a
8:19little bit exposed in his last fight as
8:21well against Curtis Blades. But outside
8:23of that, what has it been? It's really
8:24been the leg kicks. He does not deal
8:26that well with leg kicks. We go back to
8:28the Rogerio De Lima fight where he was
8:30leg kicked very badly. Basically lost
8:32him the fight. We go back to a much more
8:34recent fight in Alexander Volkov. Volkov
8:36was beating up that calf as well. And
8:37one thing about Johnny Walker is he has
8:39very very good calf kicks. I dare to say
8:41they're elite calf kicks. In his last
8:43fight with Mick Parkin, he absolutely
8:45butchered the leg of Mick Parkin. In
8:48fact, that basically won him the fight.
8:50Now, obviously, everyone saw the brutal
8:52knee in the clinch, but the reason that
8:53Mick Parkin clinched is because he did
8:55not want to be at range anymore because
8:57his leg was getting absolutely battered.
8:59It was a brutal performance from Johnny
9:01Walker in terms of leg kicking before
9:03the clinch knee. He honestly sunned MC
9:05Parkin. He basically ran through him.
9:06You know, he was outboxing him, out
9:08kicking him, and then out clinching him.
9:10He threw some nice elbows in the clinch
9:12right before the big knee and obviously
9:13rendered him unconscious with the knee.
9:15So, he's always dangerous. Johnny
9:16Walker, he can knock any man out on his
9:18day. I mean, if his knee connects with
9:19your chin, I don't care if you're Wo
9:21Cortez Costa, you're still going to get
9:22knocked out. But I think the biggest
9:24difference in this fight, if I had to
9:25say it honestly, would be the durability
9:27difference. Wardro Cortez Aosta, one of
9:29the most durable men in the sport. Went
9:30to a decision with Alexander Vulkov. He
9:32lost that. Went to a decision with
9:33Rebelis Despain. Despain obviously, you
9:35know, hits hard. I mean, that doesn't
9:36mean much. I shouldn't really mention
9:37that one. Did go to a decision with
9:39Sergey Pavlovich, one of the hardest
9:40hitters in the division. Went to a
9:42decision with De Lima when he only had
9:43one leg. Like, this guy is extremely
9:45durable. And if these guys fight for 15
9:47minutes, the durability advantage has to
9:49show itself at some point in my eyes.
9:51Now, I'm not as confident as I was
9:53pre-tape. I do think Johnny Walker has a
9:55path to victory here with the leg kicks,
9:56staying smart, not getting hurt, but for
9:58the most part, it's just hard for me to
10:00not see Waldo landing at least one
10:02massive shot on his chin. I feel like
10:04Waldo's powers getting a little bit
10:06better or potentially it was underrated
10:07in his first few fights in the UFC. And
10:10it's just hard for me to see a 15-minute
10:11fight without Johnny Walker getting
10:13caught. So, I'm going to have to take
10:14the easy way out with this one and say
10:16that I am predicting Wardo Corteza to
10:18win this fight via knockout. However, I
10:20really want to see the odds. I feel like
10:22they'll make Johnny Walker a decentsized
10:24underdog. I don't think I have the balls
10:26to play it, but maybe I do. I'm gonna
10:29I'm gonna think about it a little bit
10:30more. You know, Mick Parkin landed like
10:32one shot and that one shot kind of
10:33rocked the head of Johnny Orgas. I
10:35really think like it's only a matter of
10:36time before this guy gets iced at
10:38heavyweight. I'm going to say it happens
10:39here. But let me see the odds for this
10:40one. Let me see the under one and a half
10:42odds. Let me see odds in general.
10:44Although if Johnny wins is probably
10:46decision, honestly. But yeah, official
10:47prediction for this one, boys, would be
10:48Wardo Cortez Costa to win this fight via
10:50knockout. Next up on the card, we have
10:52Vera Janderroa taking on Tatiana Suarez.
10:54Vera Jander Robba coming into this fight
10:56with a record of 23 wins, four losses.
10:58Tatiana Suarez, a lot less experience at
11:0112 wins and one loss. Tatiana Suarez is
11:04the minus 180 favorite for this contest
11:06with the underdog price tag on Vera
11:07Jandera sitting at plus 153. Yeah, so
11:10this is a very high level matchup on
11:12women's MMA strawweight division here.
11:14two of the best girls in the entire
11:15planet at their respective weight
11:17classes. Fernander Robot obviously
11:19fought for the title, did lose that
11:20fight against McKenzie Dunn very
11:22recently. Tatiana Suarez never actually
11:24won the title. Kind of strange because
11:26of how good she is, but she did lose her
11:29title challenge as well, which was
11:31against Zenang. It's a shame Tatiana
11:32Suarez never became champion. I honestly
11:34believe before she got injured and she
11:36was out for many, many years, I think
11:38she had the capability to become
11:39champion. I mean, this girl ran through
11:41highlevel girls in a division like Alexa
11:43Graasso, Carla Espaza, two former
11:46champions. She dominated both of those
11:48girls, finished both of them. In the
11:50Alexa Graaso fight, it took her less
11:52than 3 minutes to finish her as well.
11:54So, this girl was absolutely ripping
11:56through the division back in 2018, 2019,
11:59but she did have that long time off. And
12:00since she's come back, I do not think
12:02she has been her best self. I did bet on
12:04her on her return against Montana Dear
12:06Rosa. I did bet on her to finish. She
12:08did do that but in that fight I noticed
12:10some holes and I noticed that in my
12:12opinion she was past her prime. So much
12:14so that when she fought whe Zang I
12:15actually bet on way Zang at a minus 110
12:18pick them line. Obviously why Zang
12:19completely dominated her after round one
12:21in the grappling and the striking. And
12:23then in a subsequent fight against
12:24Amanda Lemos I don't think she looked
12:26very good. She arguably lost that fight.
12:27Amanda Lemos was about plus 400 odds. I
12:30bet on Amanda Lemos there. It was a
12:3150/50 fight. It didn't go our way. It is
12:33what it is. And then when she fought
12:35Lupy, yes, she did win, but the early
12:37going of that fight on rewatch didn't
12:38look amazing. She got tagged up a little
12:41bit when she found herself on top. Yes,
12:43she completely dominated. Lupy is a much
12:45smaller girl, a worse grappler than her.
12:47And we saw the domination from Tatiana
12:49Suarez there, but I really do not think
12:51she is honestly even 70% of what she
12:54once was. She's probably in the 60% to
12:5670%ish range, which is a big drop off,
12:59right? 30 to 40% drop off in your skill
13:02set, your athleticism. And honestly, it
13:04really comes back to the athleticism for
13:06me. I feel like why Zang and Amanda
13:07Lemos out athleted her and that's why
13:10they had massive success in their
13:11fights. And I honestly feel like that
13:13probably wouldn't have happened a few
13:15years ago, you know, or more than a few
13:16years ago. Now you're talking almost 10
13:18years ago when Tatiana was running
13:19through the division in 2018. But back
13:21then, I think she was a much better
13:23athlete than she is now. She seems to
13:24have lost the step athletically, which
13:26makes sense with all of the issues, all
13:28of the medical issues that she has gone
13:30through in her career. This fight is a
13:31very hard one to break down for me
13:33because I kind of feel like this fight
13:35is going to play out in the striking.
13:37That may be a hot take, but when you get
13:39two good wrestlers, grapplers, often
13:41times it does play out in the striking.
13:42Not all the time, but often times it
13:44does. And Tatiana Suarez is the better
13:46wrestler here, but she's not the better
13:47grappler. Vera Janderoba is better at
13:50Brazilian jiu-jitsu in my opinion and
13:52better at MMA jiu-jitsu as well. So, I'm
13:54not sure Tatiana is going to want to
13:56rinse and repeat the takedowns like she
13:58does against almost every opponent
13:59because she's going to be going into the
14:00wheelhouse and the danger zone of Vera
14:03Janderoba. On the contrary, I kind of
14:05feel like Vera Jandero will call on
14:07Tatiana Suarez's takedowns. I think she
14:10won't mind being taken down. I think she
14:12will try to sweep, create some reversals
14:14of her own, and potentially even throw
14:16up submissions from her back or in a
14:18scramble. And I honestly feel like she
14:19could be successful doing that because I
14:21do rate her probably one level above
14:23Tatiana Suarez on the mat in the
14:25jiu-jitsu. Vera Jander Roa is an
14:27extremely high level grappler, one of
14:29the best we've ever seen in women's MMA.
14:31So, I kind of feel like that dynamic is
14:34going to make Tatiana Suarez use her
14:35wrestling on the defense more than the
14:38offense. Now, that should be the game
14:40plan in my opinion. going in. However,
14:43it doesn't mean that that is going to
14:44actually happen in the fight. Right?
14:46Even if Tatiana Suarez game plan is to
14:48keep it on the feet and try to outstrike
14:50Vera Jandera, who knows what's going to
14:52happen in the octagon on fight night.
14:54It's a long 15 minutes in there and
14:56fighters, especially wrestlers always go
14:58back to what they're used to doing. They
15:01always go back to what feels comfortable
15:02for them, which is wrestling. So, if
15:04Tatiana Suarez gets caught by the big
15:06overhander robot, she could easily just
15:08shoot for some takedowns here. Even if
15:10the game plan is to not shoot for some
15:12takedowns, also we have to question the
15:14fight IQ of Tatiana Suarez a little bit.
15:16She has shown lapses in her fight IQ
15:18quite consistently in my opinion since
15:21she has come back from the long layoff
15:23she had. The last point I want to
15:24mention is the potential for Vera
15:26Jandera to wrestle Tatiana Suarez. This
15:30again may be a hot take, but I would not
15:32be surprised to see Vera Janderoba get
15:34at least one takedown in this fight. And
15:36I don't think she's a better wrestler
15:37than Tatiana. I've made that clear.
15:38Tatiana is a much better wrestler.
15:40However, how good is her takedown
15:41defense really? Who has actually gone
15:43out there and tried to wrestle her? Her
15:45takedown defense is listed at a very
15:47poor 57%. She only stops 57% of the
15:50takedowns that are shot on her. Ly Godz
15:53got her down multiple times. Way Zang
15:55not only took her down herself, but
15:57reversed her easily. If Vera gets on
15:59top, if Vera gets on top, I kind of
16:01think that she's going to do more damage
16:04than Tatiana Suarez will do and fish for
16:07more submission attempts than Tatiana
16:08Suarez will be able to do. If the fight
16:10stays on her feet, I kind of lean
16:13Tatiana. I mean, Vera I feel like has
16:15more power and she's a bit more wild,
16:17which that can sometimes help her
16:20because it sometimes makes the fight
16:22move into the grappling and the clinch,
16:24but that's not really going to help her
16:25here. Like I said, she could get a body
16:27lock or two. I do think it's possible
16:28she gets a takedown, but in general, you
16:31probably don't want to be in a clinch
16:32too much with Tatiana. She's she's
16:34stronger. She's just way better in the
16:36wrestling. She's probably going to be
16:37able to defend it, turn you off the
16:38cage, and optics will look good for her.
16:40And then I think Tatiana throws better
16:42straight shots. You know, I I think both
16:44of them are pretty poor on the feet. You
16:45know, they're both wrestlers grapplers,
16:47but I kind of lean Tatiana a little bit
16:49with the straight shots, but to be
16:52honest, it's a close one. It's a close
16:54one on the feet. So, it's a close fight
16:56overall. And this is definitely a fight
16:57where I need to see the odds. I lean
16:58Tatiana slightly. I think she for the
17:01most part will dictate where the fight
17:02takes place, right? So, if she's winning
17:04on the feet, she'll be able to keep it
17:05on the feet for the most part and then
17:07she'll just win. If she's not winning on
17:09the feet, she'll be able to take down
17:10Veraganderoba for sure. And yes, she
17:12might get swept or submitted from
17:13bottom, but she also might just ride out
17:15top position. So, I think because she
17:17has the ability to take the fight where
17:19she wants it and she's probably a
17:21slightly better striker, at least more
17:23technical, but even if even if Vera does
17:25end up being a right striker, the main
17:27crux of the point here is that she
17:29dictates where the fight takes place,
17:31being the better wrestler. So, I'll lean
17:33her way because of that, but this is a
17:35plus money underdog fight. You know, if
17:37Vera's plus 150s, plus 160s, I think
17:40that's a good bet. If Tatiana's plus
17:42120s, plus 110s, potentially that's a
17:44good bet as well. I think I'd probably
17:45need a little bit less odds, a little
17:48bit worse odds to play Tatiana. I might
17:51lead a little bit better to play Vera.
17:52So, I slight lean to Tatiana, but it's a
17:55close fight, boys. Anyway, Tatiana
17:56Suarez via decision will be my official
17:58prediction. And I do like the decision
17:59here. You know, I would say that fight
18:01goes to decision at, you know, minus 300
18:04range or or whatever it will be line.
18:05That probably is a pretty good bet. It
18:08might be worse than that, honestly. But
18:09I definitely don't see this one ending
18:12inside the distance. So it might be a
18:14good parlay piece for you. But yeah,
18:15Tatiana Suarez via decision official
18:17prediction. Next up on a card, we have
18:18Davy Grant taking on Elijah Smith. Davy
18:20Grant coming into this fight with a
18:21record of 16 wins, eight losses. Elijah
18:23Smith has a record of 10 wins with only
18:25one loss. Yeah, what an interesting
18:27fight. We have an ultra veteran at 40
18:30years of age taking on an ultra prospect
18:34at 24 years of age. We have a 16-year
18:37age difference. boys. You rarely get a
18:3916-year age difference in MMA. It almost
18:42never happens in the UFC, especially. I
18:44know some of these regional
18:45organizations get their 50-year-old
18:47grandpas to pump up the prospects, but
18:50in the UFC, you don't see it a lot. You
18:51know, 16 years is massive. And honestly,
18:53a lot of the breakdown will probably
18:56come back to the 16-year age difference.
18:58Stylistically, Davy Grant is in there
19:00with the best of them. Davy Grant can
19:02bang with the best of them, even at 40
19:05years of age. The pressure he puts on on
19:07the feet, the strategy he has behind his
19:11seemingly wild shots coupled with his
19:13durability, fearlessness, cardio, and
19:17volume is just a tough thing to deal
19:18with against anybody. You know,
19:20literally anybody in a division, if
19:22you're fighting Davy Grant, you're
19:23probably going to have some trouble
19:24somewhere. You know, you're going to
19:26come out of the fight with cuts and
19:27bruises. No matter who you are, you
19:29could be almost a champion, okay? when
19:31you get up to the top 10 and 15, yes,
19:33they can probably deal with Davey. But
19:34anyone outside of that, the hundreds of
19:36other people across all of MMA in that
19:39weight class, they're going to struggle
19:40with Davy Grant, man. Even at 40 years
19:42of age, I think Elijah Smith is someone
19:44just watching him optically, visually,
19:47he seems like someone who could
19:48potentially break under Davy Grant's
19:50pressure. He really does. I'm not saying
19:51it's going to happen in this fight, but
19:53if the going gets tough for Elijah
19:54Smith, and if he doesn't get Davey out
19:56of there in the first 7 and 1/2 minutes,
19:58I think the fight gets gritty. I think
19:59the fight gets ugly. I think Davey
20:01starts to have success. I think if it
20:03goes late, it means Davey's still in
20:05there. It means Davey will have success.
20:07You don't take Davy Grant to round three
20:09and and finish the fight, go to decision
20:11with him and Davey doesn't have success.
20:13You need to get him out of there.
20:14Unless, like I said, you're a top 10
20:16type of fighter and maybe dominate him
20:17with wrestling or something like that.
20:18Interesting point on Dave Grant's side.
20:20He actually moved to Vegas full-time
20:22last year. He trains at Syndicate MMA
20:24out there. But maybe more importantly
20:26than that, out in Vegas, he's a
20:28part-time coach. So he is dedicating a
20:30lot of his time to coaching now. He was
20:32involved heavily just last week in the
20:34Cody Steel and Morab coaching. So much
20:37so that he flew all the way to UAE to
20:39corner them. So this guy is not like
20:41100% in on his own career now. Now he's
20:44developing others careers like Cody
20:45Steel, like Morab Dales Villi. So that
20:47can go two ways. You know, I lean to
20:49that being a bit of a negative in terms
20:51of the rest of his career. But being a
20:53coach can help you to some degree as
20:55well. It can show you things that you
20:57may not see if you're the one being
20:59coached. But I think overall, especially
21:01at 40 years of age. You know, Davey's on
21:03the tail end of his career. He's trying
21:05to move more into coaching now than his
21:07own career. Doesn't mean he's not
21:08dangerous. It's just maybe isn't as
21:09dangerous as he was a couple of years
21:11ago. And I think he knows that he needs
21:12to, you know, build another career for
21:14himself outside of the UFC, which he's
21:16doing now in Vegas being a coach. So
21:18Elijah Smith is the complete opposite. I
21:20don't think Elijah Smith is a coach. You
21:21know, this guy is training every day.
21:23He's getting coached. I did notice that
21:25Smith had surgery on his hand in May,
21:28which was one day before his child was
21:30born. So, you know, May is what, five
21:33months ago. Seems like a good enough
21:35time to recover. Although, it seems like
21:37he only got back to training about 13
21:39weeks ago. So, only about 3 months ago.
21:41So, you know, it's a good amount of time
21:43to to train to to have a fight camp, but
21:46it's not it's not anything special. when
21:47if the hand injury was lingering a
21:49couple of weeks after he started
21:51training. You know, you're talking 2
21:52months or he's really been training
21:54training hard. So, I don't take too much
21:56of that into my capping, but it's
21:58something still worth mentioning to you
22:00guys cuz I'm trying to give you as much
22:01information as possible. But
22:02stylistically, it's a hard one to call.
22:04I think Elijah Smith is very explosive
22:06early. I think he's very dangerous
22:07early. I think he could definitely catch
22:09Davy with something hard early. Davy
22:11obviously went to a decision in a bit of
22:12a war in his last fight. However, the
22:14fight before that, he did get smashed by
22:16Charles Jordane. He got basically
22:17knocked out on the feet and then
22:18submitted. So, I do think his durability
22:20is dropping a little bit. Elijah Smith
22:22definitely has it in him to knock him
22:24out here. I think it's going to be a
22:26chaotic fight to be honest. I don't see
22:28this being I mean, you know, it's not
22:30hard thing to predict. All of Davey's
22:31fights are chaotic. I'm going to end up
22:33going with Elijah Smith for this one.
22:35The reason I'm going to go with Elijah
22:36Smith is cuz I think the youth will help
22:38him at 24 years old. Look, it could
22:40hinder him if we get into the second and
22:42third round because Davey's been there,
22:43done that at 40 years old and this is 24
22:45year old young kid. Maybe he won't be
22:47ready for that pressure of Davy Grant.
22:48However, Elijah Smith has proven himself
22:50now. You know, he's gone to decision
22:52multiple times in tough fights. His
22:53fight against Aaron Ta in contender
22:55series, that was a tough fight. His
22:56fight against Vince Morales, another
22:58tough fight. So, he's going to have
22:59learned from those decisions and he'll
23:02probably be able to pace himself better
23:03and potentially last, you know. But, I
23:05do think it'll get sticky if he goes
23:06later rounds. I'm just going to pick
23:07Elijah Smith to crack him early. I'm
23:09going to say that Davey at 40 years old
23:10being a part-time coach now his
23:12durability and he has to start losing
23:14soon. Yeah, he lost against Charad
23:16that's like his only loss in the last
23:18four or five years or something crazy
23:19like that. Maybe not that long but the
23:20last couple of years at least. So this
23:22guy's been on a crazy run at 40 years
23:24old. It cannot keep up. So I'm going to
23:26go with Elijah Smith, the prospect at 24
23:29years old to get a knockout here. Elijah
23:30Smith via KO. We my official prediction,
23:32boys. I want to shout out the sponsor of
23:33the show. The sponsor of the show is me,
23:35Lucrative MMA. Elite Zone sponsors the
23:38show. If you want to join the Elite
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23:44every single week to be profitable
23:46long-term on MMA betting. I have a
23:487-year tracked history, which means you
23:50can literally go and see a verified
23:52independent third-party record of all of
23:55the bets I've placed over seven years.
23:57You can see the ugly periods, the loss
23:59periods, the best periods, the win
24:01periods, and the neutral periods. You
24:03can see everything, boys. The good, the
24:04bad, and the ugly. I am hiding nothing,
24:07which is something that I'm very proud
24:08of in this game of scandicappers where
24:10everyone hides their losses, boys. You
24:12know, I mean, it's just rife throughout
24:14the industry. And even if they show
24:16their losses, they may show their losses
24:17once and you never hear or see them
24:19again. Whereas with my record, you can
24:22literally see seven years worth of
24:24losses and wins whenever you want, not
24:26just when I make one small video about
24:29him and never mention him again. So, if
24:31you look at the record, it's one of the
24:32best records on the planet, one of the
24:34best tracked records that there has ever
24:36been in MMA betting. It may sound
24:37bigheaded when I say that, but there's
24:39no other way to put it. It is that we've
24:41accumulated over a 6,500%
24:44bankroll ROI since I started. Meaning,
24:47if you invested $100,000 in the service
24:49when you first started, now you would
24:51have over 6.6 million. If you invested
24:54$10,000, now you would have over
24:56$650,000.
24:58And if you had started with just a
25:00grand, now you would have over $77,000.
25:03These are all tracked numbers that can
25:05be verified. So, I'm not pulling
25:06anything out my ass, boys. I like to
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25:40see you on the inside. Now, let's get
25:42back to the show. Next up on the card,
25:43we have Sukyong Co taking on Wellington
25:45Turman. Sukyoungo coming into this
25:47fight, 13 wins, three losses. Wellington
25:49Turman has a record of 18 wins and eight
25:51losses. Tukyongo is a massive favorite
25:53minus 575 odds with the under price tag
25:55on Wellington Turman sitting at plus
25:57400. Yeah. So, first thing that comes to
25:59mind for me in this matchup is that we
26:01have Wellington Turman who's been out
26:02for 3 years, you know, literally 3
26:04years. I think it's going to be 2 years
26:05and 11 months by the time he gets in
26:07there this weekend. I don't actually
26:08think he looked that bad in that fight
26:10to be honest. I mean, he looked pretty
26:11good. He was winning it handedly. Then
26:12he got clocked and he does have a pretty
26:14poor chin so that can happen. And then
26:16he dislocated his shoulder, you know, so
26:18he was never going to win that fight
26:19after he got cracked and dislocated his
26:21shoulder. Don't think he looked that bad
26:22in that fight, but three years have
26:24passed now. He's only 30 years old,
26:26which is kind of crazy. I feel like
26:28Wellington Turman has been in the game
26:29for 10 years, so in reality, he should
26:31be 40 years old, but he's only 30 years
26:33old. He could be improving, which just
26:35sounds crazy to me considering how long
26:38I've been watching this guy for, how
26:39long he's been in the game. He should
26:41still be improving at just 30 years old,
26:43especially extremely long layoff. You
26:45know, he would have had time to get
26:46better, both recovery-wise, injury-wise,
26:48and also skill set wise. I do kind of
26:50feel like he's coming up against a bit
26:52of a brick wall here, though. I don't
26:54see too much opportunity for Wellington
26:56to win this fight outside of a knockout.
26:58Wellington can crack. He's not that bad
27:00at exchanging a middle distance. The
27:01only reason that he loses a lot of those
27:03battles is because of his chin. I don't
27:05think his chin is that great. But in
27:06terms of offense, he's actually pretty
27:08good. And Sukyongo, he has been
27:10flatlined on the regional scene. I
27:12wouldn't be surprised if it happens
27:13again at some point in the UFC. But
27:15outside of that, I think Sukyo is just
27:17too skillful for him, man. I think he's
27:18too technical for him. His nickname is
27:20the technical. I think he's probably a
27:21better MMA wrestler. I mean, Wellington
27:24is a decent wrestler, but Sukyo is
27:25probably better. Grappling wise, again,
27:27probably close. Wellington's pretty
27:30slick, but I don't think he's slick
27:31enough to like trouble Sukyongo, to be
27:34honest. And I could see Sukyango staying
27:36and riding out top position because I do
27:38think he's stronger in the grappling.
27:40You know, he's he's very thick. He's
27:42physical in the grappling. Wellington
27:44Turman is the bigger guy here, but I
27:47don't think he's the stronger guy. So,
27:48Sukyo taking him down a couple of times
27:50and, you know, riding out top position
27:52is possible here. I also feel like Sukyo
27:54has probably better gas tank. And the
27:56big thing here is they're both decent
27:59strikers offensively, but I kind of
28:01favor Sukyong co to find a knockout. And
28:04I think that's really what separates
28:06these two guys. Yes, Wellington could
28:08catch him, but I personally think
28:09Wellington has a worse chin than Sukyo.
28:11So slight lean Sukyo as the better
28:13wrestler. Slight lean him as the better
28:15striker. And slight lean him with the
28:17better durability and more power. So
28:19that leads me to pick Sukyo. He's one of
28:21my favorite fighters. Maybe I'm being a
28:23bit biased, but I have Sukyo to win this
28:24fight via knockout. Next up on the card,
28:26we have Billy Elana taking on Lucas
28:28Fernando. Billy come into this fight 10
28:30wins, two losses. Lucas Fernando has a
28:32record of 14 wins and three losses.
28:34Lucas Fernando sees himself as the minus
28:36255 favorite in this contest with the
28:38underdog price tag on Billy Alakana
28:40sitting at plus 212. Yeah, Lucas is a
28:42really good fighter, man. When Lucas
28:43fought on Dana White's contender series,
28:45I said that this guy is UFC ready now
28:48and he will be in the UFC soon. But then
28:50I still bet against him on Dana White's
28:52contender series even when I say that
28:54because I just thought the line was too
28:55wide. And it kind of goes back to what I
28:57say in every single show, boys, which is
28:59predictions are not bets. And it's
29:01perfectly encapsulated there. I
29:03literally watched tape on Lucas Fernando
29:054 years ago for Dana White's Contender
29:07Series. I said that this guy is UFC
29:09ready and I bet against him because
29:12Caesar Almeida was like plus 220 and he
29:15didn't have much experience in MMA, but
29:18he had crazy experience in kickboxing
29:20and Lucas Fernando doesn't really shoot
29:22that many takedowns. I was like, if it's
29:23a striking fight, he's probably going to
29:24win. And Caesar ended up out wrestling
29:26him, which was a terrible look for Lucas
29:28Fernando, to be honest. And after that,
29:29I was like, "Yeah, look, I just won my
29:31bet, but Lucas Fernando didn't look as
29:33good as I thought he would. I thought it
29:34would be a bit more of a war, or maybe
29:35he'll get knocked out or something.
29:36Maybe I had the wrong idea. Maybe Lucas
29:39isn't that good." And then in his
29:40subsequent fight against Azim Boev, he
29:42lost that fight as well. And I started
29:44saying to myself, damn, maybe he was
29:45completely wrong on Lucas Fernando.
29:47After that, the guy strings off four
29:49wins in a row, gets signed to the UFC,
29:51dominates his UFC debut, gets a finish
29:53in round three. So, I actually think I
29:55probably was right four years ago, even
29:56though, you know, about two years after
29:58I started to think I was wrong, but
29:59Lucas Fernando is legit. I think he's
30:01shone up some of those grappling holes
30:03now. I think his takeown defense is a
30:04little bit better. I also think he was
30:05caught off guard by someone like Caesar
30:07Almeida and Asame is a relentless
30:09wrestler at times as well. And Lucas
30:11Fernando is getting older now. He's
30:13filling into his frame and he's actually
30:14moved up to light heavyweight. So, that
30:16may have been a difference. Although, he
30:17did get multiple middleweight wins after
30:19the middleweight losses against Caesar
30:20Almeida and Boev. So, I still think, you
30:22know, he was he could be pretty good at
30:23middleweight, but he's getting bigger
30:24now. He's a big light heavyweight. I
30:26don't really think he could make
30:27middleweight and not struggle and it not
30:29affect his performance. He could still
30:30probably win fights at middleweight, but
30:32that's when you start to see maybe the
30:33cardio and the durability drop off a
30:35little bit. So, I'm happy he's at light
30:36heavyweight. I think this is the weight
30:38class for him. And I'm not going to lie,
30:40I kind of feel like he's going to piece
30:41up Billy Alakana in this fight. Now, I
30:43am a little bit biased to Lucas
30:44Fernando, even though I have bet against
30:46him in the past and won. I just I like
30:48his fight style, you know? I think he's
30:49slick on the feet. He attacks all
30:51levels, body, head, legs. He's got good
30:54cardio, you know, he's not afraid to
30:56swing. Like, this guy's got good power.
30:57He's just he's big, rangy. There's
31:00nothing really to dislike about him. I
31:02will say that Billy Elcon is probably
31:04the better jiu-jitsu guy here and
31:05probably the better wrestler to be
31:07honest. Like Luke F not a good wrestler
31:08really. And if he does get his
31:10takedowns, he could go to work a little
31:12bit. But Fernando's still pretty good on
31:14the ground. I just think he's not good
31:15at wrestling. His jiu-jitsu is actually
31:17not terrible. So yeah, look, Billy has
31:18some path to victory with the grappling
31:20if he hasn't shown up them holes from
31:21Dana White's contender series in the Beo
31:23fight and we haven't really seen him
31:24fight anyone that good since then. So
31:26you know maybe he hasn't shown up the
31:28holes. He did fight Tobias. Tobias not a
31:30very high level guy in my opinion. So we
31:32can't take too much away from that.
31:33However, I do think that he's getting
31:35better improving every fight and I think
31:36he's going to beat Belly Alakana here.
31:38I'd actually pick Lucas Fernando to win
31:39this fight via decision. Next up on the
31:41card we have Andre Petroski taking on
31:43Mantas Condraticious. Petroski coming
31:45into this fight with record of 13 wins,
31:47six losses. Mantas coming into this
31:49fight, nine wins, only one loss. Yeah,
31:51this is a very binary fight, boys. We
31:53have a striker versus grappler here.
31:54Mantes Condraticious is the striker.
31:57Petroski we know is the grappler. I
31:59mean, the first thing that stands out to
32:00me about this fight, honestly, is that
32:02Manz is a big guy. He throws heavy power
32:05and Andre Petroski has dropped the ball
32:06and showed very bad durability in
32:09multiple fights. And getting knocked out
32:10by Cody Brundage is a very bad sign in
32:12my opinion. And I know Cody Brundage can
32:14hit early, but that was an easy fight
32:15for him to some degree. You know, all he
32:17needed to do was not get knocked out in
32:19round one and just weather the storm, if
32:20there even is one, cuz he was in full
32:22control of that round before he got
32:24knocked out. Sorry, I mean full control
32:26of the previous round before he got
32:28knocked out. All he needed to do was
32:29just do the same thing again and he
32:31couldn't do it. He got touched once and
32:32he basically got knocked out. He's also
32:33shown bad durability to the body before.
32:36I kind of feel Mantas is going to kill
32:37him, man. I think Mantas is going to
32:39knock him out, you know. I also feel
32:41like we cannot say the level that Mantas
32:45is at. I don't want to say he could be a
32:47fraud, but he could be a fraud. I don't
32:49like using that word fraud, but what I
32:51mean by that is like I mean this guy's
32:52like minus Let's actually have a look.
32:54His odds against Trulli were big, man.
32:56Minus a,000 against Tracoli. Took him to
32:58a decision. Not the best look of all
33:00time. Got a very quick win on the
33:02Contender Series and his overall level
33:04of competition has not been good enough
33:06to show us how good he actually is. And
33:08honestly, we haven't seen that much of
33:10his wrestling defense and takedown
33:11defense in jiu-jitsu. In fact, the one
33:13time we see it a lot, he got submitted.
33:15His only loss, you know, he got rear
33:16naked choked. Now, he defended against
33:18that guy early was a French dude, Organ,
33:20he defended against him early pretty
33:22well, but as soon as he got taken down,
33:24he had nothing and he got submitted
33:26shortly after, you know. So, if Andre
33:27Petroki is able to take him down, he may
33:29not have shored up those jiu-jitsu holes
33:31and Petroski is good at jiu-jitsu. I
33:33think Petroski has a clear path to
33:34victory here with the takedowns and
33:35grappling. Ultimately, every fight
33:37starts on the feet. Mantas is going to
33:39go at him like a madman. He lands big
33:41shots early on no matter who he fights.
33:43Petroski cannot take his shots in my
33:45opinion. So, I'm going to go maybe with
33:47the easy way out with Mantas Condrat
33:50Vicious as my official prediction.
33:51However, I'm going to look at the odds
33:53here. If they are well into the favor of
33:55Mantas, which according to his last
33:57fight at minus 1,000 and Petroski
33:59getting knocked out by Cody Brundage, we
34:01could see Mantas as a big fa big
34:02favorite. It's not going to be like
34:04-400s because it just won't, right? But
34:07maybe we get like a minus 200 on him.
34:09It's possible. At plus 180, Andre
34:11Petroski has to be the side. I'm going
34:13to think about this one in depth before
34:14I make a play. But my prediction, which
34:17is different from my bets or can be
34:20different. Often times it's the same. A
34:21lot of times it's different. A lot of
34:22times I don't even bet on a winner. I
34:24bet on a prop bet, right? So it's
34:25completely different the bets and and
34:26the picks. But yeah, ultimately right
34:28now, boys, Mantas Condrat Deicious via
34:30knockout will be my official prediction.
34:32But I do like the fight doesn't go to
34:33decision depending on what odds we get
34:34there. I like even maybe the under one
34:36and a half rounds. So I feel like
34:38violence is the way to go in this fight
34:39and I'll pick to win. Next up on the
34:41card we have Karina Silva taking on
34:43Gabriella Fernandez. Some Brazilian on
34:45Brazilian violence. Karina Silva coming
34:47into this fight 19 wins, seven losses.
34:49Gabriella Fernandez has a record of 11
34:51wins and four losses. Karina Silva the
34:54slight moderate favorite minus 160 odds
34:56for her with the under price tag on
34:58Gabriella Fernandez sitting at plus 136.
35:00some Brazilian on Brazilian action. I
35:03kind of feel like in this one, lads,
35:07that Gabriella Fernandez looks scarier
35:10than what she can actually do to Karina
35:12Silva. Let me explain what I mean.
35:13Gabriella Fernandez is a big flyweight.
35:15She's a strong girl. She has power in
35:17her hands. She has physical grappling,
35:20but I think Karina Silva beats her on a
35:22technical level almost everywhere. I
35:24think she's more durable, first of all.
35:26I mean, especially after seeing that
35:27Casey O'Neal knockout, that was kind of
35:29wild to watch, to be honest. Casey
35:31O'Neal not really known for having that
35:32much power on the feet. She's more of a
35:34cardio queen. I was going to say cardio
35:36king. She's more of a cardio queen and
35:37she doesn't have that much power on the
35:38feet. So, for her to just run through
35:40Gab Fernandez, I think we got to be
35:42like, "All right, all right, just pump
35:43the brakes. There may be some chin
35:44issues there." Look, maybe she got
35:45caught with a perfect shot in women's
35:47MMA at flyaway against the non-puncher.
35:49I think we have to lean to the chin
35:51issue side rather than Casey O'Neal
35:52turned into Mike Tyson. And then with
35:54the wrestling, I think Karina Silva is a
35:56better wrestler. I don't think she's an
35:57elite wrestler. I think she's better
35:58technically for sure. She makes better
35:59movement. She makes the right decisions.
36:01I think Karina Silva is levels above on
36:03the mat jiu-jitsu wise. It's not close
36:05in my opinion. Like it's not close. Like
36:07Karina Silva could teach Gabriella
36:08Fernandez. You know, she probably will
36:09teach her this weekend. She take her to
36:11school in my opinion. Like she is a
36:12coach and Gabriella Fernandez is the
36:14student to be honest. And then even in
36:16the striking, I might have to say Karia
36:18Silva is a better boxer. I think she's a
36:19better boxer. Obviously, the striking is
36:21where it becomes a lot closer than
36:23everything else I've mentioned, but I
36:24still feel like Karine has some
36:26advantages on the feet, not only in
36:28maybe the technical boxing, but guess
36:29what? Like I mentioned, the durability.
36:31Karina Silva is durable as she took some
36:34big shots in that Macy Barber fight and
36:36she kept coming. So, while and I might
36:38be wrong here because obviously I'm
36:39making this video way early. I haven't
36:41spoke to anyone about this card. No
36:43one's taping this card. Everyone's
36:44taping this weekend's card. No one's
36:45focused on this. So, I haven't really
36:46spoke to anyone about this or watched
36:48any content about this fight. I kind of
36:51think though that people may be saying
36:53Gabriela Fernandez is a live dog here. I
36:55guess cuz she got knocked out against
36:57Casey O'Neal in her last fight, recency
36:59bias will probably stop that to be
37:00honest cuz most people in MMA betting
37:02are recent. They have heavy recency
37:04bias. So, maybe they won't. But, I still
37:06feel like that's possible. You know,
37:07people saying she's a live dog here. I
37:08don't see her as a live underdog because
37:10I just think at some point the fight's
37:12going to be taken to the ground and I
37:13think Karina Silva is going to school
37:15her on the ground. Look, if she doesn't
37:17get a takedown, then all I'm saying is
37:19not really going to look that smart to
37:21be honest because yes, she could crack
37:23her on the feet, but if it's a striking
37:25fight like Gabrielle Fern could even win
37:27and it's definitely going to be close
37:28regardless, right? It kind of reminds me
37:30of the Ernesa Carakart versus Melissa
37:32Gateau fight not too long ago. So, I
37:34predicted Gateau to win. I predicted
37:36Gate to win via submission, but she
37:38couldn't get a takedown for the first
37:39two rounds or she got a takedown in
37:41round one, I think it was. No, I think
37:43she was throwing subs from her back.
37:44That was a that was a proper weird
37:46fight. But basically, for the majority
37:48of that fight, she couldn't get
37:49takedowns. But I predicted her to win
37:50and dominate on the ground, but she
37:52didn't get a takedown. So, I looked kind
37:54of stupid throughout the fight, right?
37:56Throughout the course of that fight, I
37:57looked like kind of [ __ ] Like, it
37:59was kind of like a [ __ ] prediction
38:00because Anesta was kind of winning on
38:01the feet. Way better cardio. Melissa
38:04couldn't take her down. It was like
38:05Melissa can't win the fight. However,
38:07when Melissa took it down in round
38:08three, it was a complete and utter
38:10domination, right? It was a brutality on
38:13the ground in terms of Anesta had
38:15absolutely nothing. Even though Gateau
38:17was completely gassed and Gateau 10
38:18seconds left, she would have subbed her.
38:20I'm making this whole spiel to say that
38:22fights cannot be judged on one iteration
38:25of them. Right? So, someone could have a
38:27prediction about a fight, right? For
38:28example, someone could predict Morab to
38:30beat Yan in the first fight and everyone
38:31thinks, "Oh, that was a genius
38:33prediction." But then he lost the next
38:34two fights. So, it wasn't actually that
38:35genius at all. Now, at plus 400, maybe
38:37it was genius cuz it's a close fight
38:38regardless, right? But you get what I'm
38:40trying to say. I think Karina Silva can
38:42look minus 500 here. I also think she
38:44can look minus 110 if she doesn't get a
38:45takedown. Ultimately, I'm predicting her
38:47to get a takedown. Boys, the reason I'm
38:49kind of giving that spill and that
38:51breakdown is not cuz I'm not confident
38:53Karine wins or I'm trying to give myself
38:54an out or something if she doesn't win
38:56because I'm not trying to do that. I
38:58think she's going to win. I'm standing
38:59on my prediction. I'm confident in it.
39:00Whatever. Right? The reason I'm saying
39:02that is to drop a jewel about MMA
39:04betting and to teach you MMA betting
39:06because that's what my entire goal is
39:08here on this channel. I've become like a
39:10predictor, right? An MMA predictor. I
39:12get judged off my picks, right? But at
39:14the end of the day, boys, I'm a
39:15professional sports better before I was
39:17a content creator. I was making hundreds
39:19of thousands of dollars betting on MMA.
39:20Way before I had more than 500 views,
39:23a,000 views. I was getting 500 views on
39:25an episode. No one was really watching
39:26and I was making hundreds of thousands
39:28of dollars. So, I come into this YouTube
39:30online game as someone who already made
39:32a lot of money from MMA betting. So, I
39:34don't see myself as like a predictor,
39:35right? I see myself as someone who made
39:37money and so I can teach people to make
39:39money. I know some people don't like it,
39:41but then I know a lot of people
39:43absolutely love it. So, I'm going to
39:44continue to do it where I give you
39:45jewels about MMA better and I'm telling
39:47you now, boys, two jewels I dropped in
39:49this breakdown. Recency bias is massive.
39:51So, because Gabriella Fernandez got
39:52knocked out by Casey O'Neil in her last
39:53fight, a lot of people are going to call
39:55her a bum. I kind of forgot that she got
39:56knocked out in our last fight. What when
39:58I was saying that everyone's going to
39:59call her a live dog. So, you need to
40:01capitalize on recency bias. You're going
40:02to make a lot of money doing that. It's
40:04something that will never be patched. It
40:06will literally never be patched by the
40:07sports books. I won't go into why. I've
40:09actually made a video on it in the past,
40:10but it will never be patched. And then
40:11the second jewel is that you cannot
40:12judge a fight on one iteration of the
40:14fight. Right? So, you can make a
40:16prediction and it could go completely
40:17the opposite way. It doesn't even mean
40:19your prediction was bad. I know that
40:21sounds crazy to the majority, but that's
40:23why the majority lose money and the
40:25minority win money. If your prediction
40:28goes the opposite way, it does not mean
40:30the prediction was bad. It can mean it
40:32was bad. It may have been a terrible
40:34prediction, but it's very hard to know
40:36if it was terrible based on one fight
40:39because every fight is different. Karina
40:40Silva could go out this weekend and take
40:42her down in round one and submit her
40:44like that and I look like an absolute
40:46genius. She may go out there, not be
40:48able to take her down for whatever
40:50reason. And maybe she gets a takedown,
40:51but it's 10 seconds left and she gets
40:53pieced up on the feet and it's 50/50
40:55fight or she gets hurt in round one or
40:57her nose breaks in round one, so she
40:58doesn't have the cardio cuz she's not
40:59breathing correctly and she doesn't
41:01perform to the best of her ability or
41:03she's sick like Vulcanowski was going
41:05into the over fight. It didn't affect
41:06him, but what if it did and then he
41:08looks bad? You get what I'm trying to
41:10say? Like there's so many aspects that
41:12go into a fight. We can't judge it off
41:14one fight. I'm only saying that not
41:16necessarily in relation to this fight,
41:17but just to give you a better
41:18understanding about MMA betting and
41:20hopefully you can earn more money
41:22because of it. Rant over. You need at
41:24least one rant from me per show, boys.
41:27Come on. At least one rant. But yeah,
41:29man, be careful with recency bias and
41:31judging one singular fight. I have
41:33Karina Silva to win this fight and I'm
41:35going to take her to win the fight via
41:36submission. I think that she gets her
41:38game going in round two. I kind of feel
41:41like Gabriella Fernandez might have
41:43better cardio, but I don't know how her
41:45cardio is going to hold up if they're
41:46grappling a lot. So, I think Silva at
41:48some point catches her or if not just
41:50dominates her from top position and wins
41:51the fight via decision. But my official
41:53prediction is Karina Silva via
41:55submission. And I think that prop bet
41:56will be pretty big odds and maybe we all
41:58cash together on that one. Next on the
41:59card, we have Jose Souza taking on
42:01Johnny Parsons. Jose Souza aka Jose
42:04Enrique. Jose Souza coming into this
42:05fight with a record of nine wins, one
42:07loss. Johnny Parsons coming into this
42:08fight with record of nine wins and three
42:10losses. Same number of wins, almost same
42:12number of losses. Joseé Enrique Souza
42:14minus 180 favorite here. Johnny Parsons
42:17comes back as the plus 153 underdog.
42:19Yeah. So, we have to pump the brakes a
42:21little bit on Jose Enrique. Jose Souza
42:23obviously lost on the Dana White
42:24Contender Series [clears throat] many
42:25years ago. He was very young though. The
42:27UFC brought him back. They just straight
42:29up signed him, which was very
42:30interesting to me. I mean, he lost on
42:31Dana White's Contender Series
42:33convincingly. I mean, it was a good
42:34fight, but he lost via knockout. And
42:36then they bring him back into the UFC,
42:38straight into the UFC without making him
42:40go through Dana White's Contender Series
42:42again. They obviously wanted him for
42:43whatever reason, I don't know. Tried to
42:45match him up in the UFC multiple times.
42:47All of the fights got cancelled and then
42:48eventually he did fight against Mang
42:50Ding. And in that fight, he looked so
42:51different than his Dana White's
42:52Contender Series days. So, he was 20
42:54years old in Dana White's Contender
42:56Series. He was 24 years old when he
42:58actually made the UFC and fought Mang
43:00Ding recently. And you could see, I
43:01guess I'll call it improvements, but you
43:03could see a massive difference in his
43:04game. He was way more hesitant in the
43:06Mang Bing fight. Maybe it was UFC
43:08jitters. Maybe he's just changed his
43:10style, but you could tell he was on the
43:11back foot. He had long stretches of
43:13inactivity, which he didn't really have
43:15prior to that on the regional scene or
43:17in the Dana Wax Contender Series bout
43:19that he had. And he just seemed a bit
43:21nervous, but also more technical. He was
43:23smarter. He wasn't taking as many shots,
43:25but also we could see some nervousness
43:27in there as well. So yeah, he's an
43:29interesting prospect for me cuz he's 24.
43:31He's absolutely massive. He seems to be
43:33improving. I'm going to give him a pass
43:35for the fight he had. He did win via
43:37split decision, but it was a very close
43:38fight. I'm going to give him a pass
43:39because it was his UFC debut after
43:41getting knocked out in Contender Series.
43:42Maybe had some jitters there. I'm
43:44assuming he did at 24 years old. I'm
43:47sure he did. But he does have a decently
43:49bright future just with his athletic
43:50tools in my opinion. Good cardio from
43:52what I see. He has decent power.
43:54Durability is not the best. been knocked
43:56out, been rocked a lot. But if that
43:58honestly I feel like comes down to being
43:59very hitable if he's shoring up those
44:01gaps, which looks like he is, he could
44:03be a decent prospect. 6'3 at
44:05welterweight, long reach, long leg
44:07reach, long arm reach. He's, you know,
44:09got a good build for the welterweight
44:11division. Johnny Parsons
44:13doesn't really. I mean, he's 5'9, right?
44:16He's listed at 5'9. And I mean, we know
44:17the UFC tapology, these places get the
44:20the fighters heights wrong all the time,
44:22but he's listed at 5'9 against someone
44:25who is 6'3. And the main thing that we
44:27need to speak about on the side of
44:29Johnny Parsons is that this guy has had
44:313 and 1/2 years away from the sport.
44:34Massive time away from the sport. So the
44:37reason for his injury, according to
44:38Parson himself, he said that he had just
44:40had too many bad training habits for
44:42years and years and they resulted in
44:44backto backto back injuries for him. He
44:47says he's now focusing on strength and
44:49conditioning heavily cuz it prevents you
44:50from getting injured as long as you do
44:52it right. And Johnny Parsons is uh 35
44:55years old, you know, so once you you
44:56know, once you get into the 30s, you
44:59start getting a lot more injuries. So
45:00he's obviously learned the hard way like
45:02a lot of us have to deal with. I can
45:04relate to that as well. But he's a very
45:05fun fighter. So, I hope that his
45:07injuries are past him because he likes
45:08to throw down, man. Johnny Parson's got
45:10a great Muay Thai style. He's very
45:12exciting to watch. You know, I kind of
45:13forgot about him in my psyche because
45:15he's been off for three years. But going
45:16back and taping for this fight, he's got
45:19a very fun style. I kind of feel like
45:21the fun style might put him into a bit
45:22of danger here. I think, you know,
45:24having that Muay Thai style, give one,
45:26take one, that walk forward pressure
45:27style against someone who's 6'3, who's
45:30been fighting, who's 24 years old, he
45:32has that 11-year age advantage or
45:34disadvantage, whatever you want to call
45:35it. That's a that's sometimes sometimes
45:37it advantages for the older guy who's a
45:39bit more of a veteran. But we say 11year
45:41age advantage when it comes to the
45:43physicality, right, and the injuries and
45:45just being in there. Also, he's been
45:47fighting. He hasn't been off for 3 and
45:491/2 years. coming up to four years.
45:52Maybe not coming up to four years, but
45:53you know, in six in 5 months it'll be
45:55four years or something or 6 months or
45:56something like that. So, three and a
45:57half years. I'm trying to exaggerate it.
45:59It's not coming up to four. It's three
46:01and a half years he's been off, but it's
46:02a long ass time, man. And Joseé Enrique
46:04has not been away for that long. I think
46:06he's going to be able to land the jab on
46:07this Muay Thai style. I think he's going
46:09to be able to land the leg kicks at
46:10times. I think he should be able to run
46:12numbers. You know, Muay Thai fighters a
46:14lot of the time they're kind of low
46:15volume, right? Because they give one to
46:17take one. They're very technical. They
46:19don't rush things. And it's not really a
46:21style where you pump out loads of
46:23volume. Like boxing, for example, some
46:25boxing fighters, you know, the volume is
46:26insane. Muay Thai, it's more of like,
46:28I'll kick you in the leg now, you can
46:29kick me, then I'll land a great combo,
46:31you know, body, head, and then I'll
46:33chill for a bit, and then you kick me,
46:35you know, and in the first round of Muay
46:36Thai, they don't do anything a lot of
46:38the time, you know, they build up in the
46:39second and third and fourth round. So, I
46:41think that Jose Enrique could exploit
46:43that with his volume, but it's it should
46:45be a competitive striking fight, you
46:47know, competitive striking fight. No one
46:49has like massive advantages really. Like
46:52I can't look at this fight and be like
46:53this guy is way better at this, you
46:55know? I can't say that. I can't say that
46:57at all, boys. So, when you can't say
46:58that, it's hard to be super confident.
47:00I'm going to take the youthful guy on
47:02youth, on the fact that he's closer to
47:03his prime than Johnny, on the fact that
47:05he hasn't been away for three and a half
47:07years. I got Jose Enrique to win this
47:08fight. I'll say he wins it via decision
47:10cuz Parsons is tough. By the end of the
47:11day, three and a half years away,
47:13injuries, I would not be surprised at a
47:15finish. Joseé Enrique via decision will
47:17be my official prediction for now. Next
47:18up on the card, we have Jose Dano taking
47:20on Mazali Magamemedov. What an excellent
47:24fight. Delano comes into this fight with
47:25a record of 17 wins, three losses.
47:27Magamemedov comes into this fight with a
47:29record of 11 wins and no losses. Jose
47:32Delano a very slight favorite at minus
47:34113 odds with a price tag on Mural.
47:37Meamemedov at minus 103. So first thing
47:39that comes to my mind in this fight is
47:40it's an absolute banger, right? Second
47:43thing that comes to my mind in this
47:44fight is that I haven't done enough tape
47:45study for this fight. And sometimes I'm
47:48probably a bit too honest, but I want to
47:50give you as much information to go by as
47:52possible. And I'm going to probably do
47:53more tape study for this one. I'm going
47:55to look at this fight a little bit more
47:56in depth. I still think I can give you a
47:58solid breakdown, but I will say stay
48:00tuned to my Telegram channel as I
48:02usually do. And once I tape study this
48:04fight even more, I'll put out like maybe
48:05an updated breakdown. But I can give you
48:07a good breakdown for now, boys. So the
48:09third thing that comes to my mind in
48:10this fight is what I found out about
48:11José Dano during my research for this
48:14fight, right? And what I found out is
48:15that in his last fight against Ruchala
48:17where me and the elite zone cashed on
48:19him there, he actually come out and said
48:21after the fight that the reason he
48:23wasn't able to get his game going faster
48:25was because he kept slipping on the
48:26canvas and it reallyed him up mentally.
48:28Now if you watch that fight, you will
48:29see he did keep slipping on the canvas
48:31and he lost his footing at times. So I
48:33kind of believe him, you know, that it
48:34took a while to get his game going, but
48:36he is also that type of fighter, man.
48:37and he's a builder into a fight. He
48:39comes through in the later rounds. You
48:41saw in his Dana White Contender Series
48:43fight and his only other UFC fight, you
48:45know, he's a builder. He starts putting
48:47the pressure on in round two and round
48:48three. Very good cardio, veteran. Been
48:50to decision a lot of times, been to
48:52round three a lot of times. Only loss
48:53was in round three against Gabriel
48:55Santos in an absolute banger of a fight.
48:57Gabriel Santos, very high level UFC
48:59fighter. So, I really rate Jos Delano.
49:01Bet on him twice now. Both UFC banner
49:04fights. I think he's a very, very solid
49:06prospect. Magamemedov, very good fighter
49:08as well. I bet on him to not only beat
49:10Bagdasarian in his last fight, but to
49:12finish him. And I'm pretty sure I bet on
49:14him via submission. And he got a
49:15submission within 1 minute, right? 1
49:16minute 17 seconds. He got a modified
49:18twister. This guy is legit. Now,
49:20something that stands out to me about
49:21this one, like one of the first things
49:22that I think of is that Magamed has
49:24never been to decision. And Joseano,
49:26like I just said, has been to a decision
49:27multiple times very recently as well.
49:29And he is no stranger to a decision, to
49:31long fights, to back and forth fights. I
49:33feel like Magamed is a winner, right? He
49:35knows how to get his hand raised. He's
49:37been through some tough situations and
49:39comes back and finishes the fight.
49:41However, going up against someone like
49:43Jose Dano who is used to back and forth
49:46wars where he goes to decision, he goes
49:49late in fights in round three multiple
49:51times, decision multiple times. I feel
49:53like if Magamemedov doesn't get him out
49:55of there, he's going to start to gas
49:57out. I genuinely believe that. Now, is
49:59there a world in Magamemedov can win his
50:01first decision? Of course, he can. And
50:03how can he win that? Well, it's via the
50:04grappling. It's via the wrestling. I
50:06think Magamedov has a very good top
50:07game, very good jiu-jitsu as well. I
50:10don't really see him finishing Delano. I
50:12mean, it can happen, but I think
50:13Delano's got good enough takedown
50:15defense, good enough cardio. Cardio is a
50:17big one to not get finished, by the way.
50:19And probably good enough grappling to
50:20not get finished cuz I All right, so put
50:22it this way. I don't think Magomedov is
50:24going to have massive success in the
50:26grappling early. Look, could he like
50:28explode into a takedown and do something
50:30early? Yes. But I I just feel like to
50:32finish Jose Dano on the ground, you need
50:34to have a perfect setup, right? So like
50:36you just catch him in a rear naked choke
50:38and he just he can't get out of it. Or
50:40he probably needs to be a bit tired. He
50:41probably needs to be a bit cut open. You
50:43probably need to wear him down. And I
50:44don't think Magamemed has the gas to
50:46wear José Dano down cuz I don't think
50:48Joseo could be worn down in round one. I
50:51think it has to be round two and round
50:52three after maybe being dominated on the
50:53mat. I don't think Magamed has the gas
50:55to do that to him for three rounds
50:57before finishing. So, I personally don't
50:59think he's going to finish Delano. So,
51:01then if I don't think he's going to
51:02finish Delano, how does he win the
51:03fight? Cuz he's only ever won via inside
51:05the distance. He's only ever won. He's
51:06never won a decision, right? So, if I
51:08don't think he will win inside the
51:10distance, his only path to victory for
51:12me is a decision. And when I say only
51:13path, boys, of course, he can win inside
51:16the distance. I'm just predicting him
51:18not to. Right? So, in my mind, he has to
51:21win via decision. Not has to, but you
51:23get what I'm trying to say, right? Most
51:24likely he has to. So to win via decision
51:27though, I don't think he's going to do
51:28it on the feet. José Delano is a better
51:30striker than him. Yes, he's explosive
51:31early. Yes, he can land big shots early.
51:34I think Delano is one level above him on
51:35the feet. I truly do. And so then the
51:37path to victory is to win via grappling
51:41over three rounds. Can he do it? Yes.
51:43Does he have the gas to do it? I'm not
51:45confident. Has he got finishes in round
51:47three? Yes. Has he looked tired in
51:49fights? Yes. Is he a fast star? I'm
51:52going to stop now, but yes. So, I just
51:54think Delano more of a veteran, better
51:56cardio, probably good enough takedown
51:58defense to stop the takedowns, at least
52:00as we go into round two and round three,
52:02and a better striker and more
52:03experience, much more experience. So,
52:05I'm leaning Jose Dano in this fantastic
52:08fight. What do I want to tape study more
52:10then? I want to tape study Joseé
52:11Delano's takedown defense specifically.
52:13I want to go back to the regional scene.
52:14I've seen the Richala fight. You know,
52:16we bet on him in that fight as well. His
52:18takedown defense looked good. However, I
52:20want to go back and dig deep into his
52:21takedown defense. How good is it? I want
52:23to dig deep into his submission defense
52:25because I really think Magamemedov's
52:26path to victory here is the takedowns,
52:28is the submissions, is the wrestling.
52:30But how likely is he to actually pull
52:32that off against Delano? Right now, I
52:33feel like he will get some takedown and
52:35he will get some top time. I don't think
52:37it's going to be enough to win the
52:38fight, though. But my deep dive on Joseé
52:40Delano's wrestling and grappling defense
52:42may change my opinion on that. Right
52:44now, got Joseo to win the fight. I'll
52:46say he wins it via decision. I'll say
52:48for the first time in his career,
52:49Maggamemedov makes it to a decision. And
52:51I'll say he loses that decision. I'll
52:53say that the veteran savvy and the
52:55striking and the cardio of Delana
52:57winning him the fight. However, this is
52:58a fantastic fight. Of course, it can go
53:00either way. I'm very interested to see
53:02the odds. Give me a big plus money on
53:04any fighter and I'm taking it. I'm going
53:06against my Delano pick. I'm betting
53:08Magamemedov if they give me plus 180s or
53:10something, which they won't do. This
53:12shit's going to be minus 110. I think
53:14I'm pretty confident it's going to be
53:16around - 110. Maybe even Magamemedov has
53:18the OV tax and maybe easy even a minus
53:20125 or something. But yeah, it's going
53:22to be a closely line fight. Probably
53:24I'll just watch the fight take place,
53:26but kind of want to fade the 11 and0
53:28Magameov. But like I'm like I said, I'm
53:30going to do a bit more tape study. Hit
53:31the free Telegram in my bio and I'll
53:33probably do a little updated breakdown
53:35of this. Also, give me a comment. Let
53:37let me know on YouTube to give me an to
53:39give you an updated breakdown if you
53:41want to see that. Cuz honestly, boys,
53:42sometimes I forget. I think one time I
53:44said I was going to do that in a
53:44telegram and I literally just forgot,
53:46you know, cuz I just say it as I'm
53:47recording and then I tape study a week
53:49later literally cuz the fights ain't out
53:50for another 13 days. I tape study 7 days
53:52later. I forget that I meant to do a
53:53breakdown in Telegram. I did that one
53:55time. So mate, feel free to leave me a
53:57comment, DM or or something. Just spam
53:59me. I'm sure I'll see it if you continue
54:01to spam me. Hopefully I will. And then
54:03I'll give the breakdown on my Telegram.
54:04You can join the Telegram for free down
54:06below. Ultimately, right now I got Jose
54:08Dano via decision as my official
54:10prediction. Next up on the card, we have
54:11Ollie Schmidt taking on Kicho Nakamura.
54:13Next up on the card, we have Ollie
54:14Schmidt taking on Kicho Nakamura. Ollie
54:16Schmidt comes into this fight with a
54:18record of four wins, three losses. Kicho
54:20Nakamura has a record of eight wins with
54:22only one loss. Kicho Nakamura, big
54:24favorite here. Minus 350 odds for him
54:26with the under price tag on Ollie
54:27Schmidt sitting at plus 284. All right,
54:29boys. This is a tough fight to break
54:31down. So Olly Schmid and me have the
54:34same barber. Yeah, like I'm going to be
54:36rooting for Ollie Schmid when I go and
54:38get my haircut in the barber shop.
54:39Obviously my barber knows I bet on MMA,
54:41you know, and he tells me about all the
54:43customers. He's like, "Oh, this guy's in
54:44the UFC. His name's Ollie Schmid." I cut
54:46his hair. I'm like, "All right." So,
54:48obviously I'm rooting for Ollie Schmid
54:49in this fight. I think it's a tough
54:50fight for him to be honest, man. Kicho
54:52Nakamura is a pretty good strike. He's
54:53very dangerous as well. He was getting
54:55pieced up in his last fight, but man, he
54:57found the knockout and it was a brutal
54:59knockout as well. I feel like Ollie made
55:00it to the UFC a little bit prematurely.
55:02He made it to the UFC with a record of
55:044-2. Now it's 4 and three. You don't
55:06usually see those records in the UFC. I
55:08would have liked him to have more fights
55:09and more experience before getting into
55:11the UFC. The step up in competition that
55:13he was having from the regional scene to
55:15Marwan Rahiki is one of the biggest step
55:16ups you'll ever see. Marwan's a legit
55:18fighter. A lot of the regional scene
55:20fighters he was fighting are nowhere
55:21near that level. It's a hard step up to
55:23make on your UFC debut. I feel like he
55:26should have a better showing here. Just
55:28like the last fight, I need to tape
55:29study this one a little bit more. I'm
55:30going to go with Nakamura for the win.
55:32It's very hard to pick against him being
55:34that Ollie is so unproven. I'm hoping
55:36that he goes out there and proves it.
55:38I'm rooting for him to win, but as
55:40always, I give you my honest thoughts on
55:42who I think will win, not who I'm
55:43rooting for to win. So, I'll say Kich
55:46Nakamura wins this fight via knockout.
55:48However, it is War Olly Schmidt and I am
55:50rooting for the guy to win. Hopefully,
55:51he does. Next up, we have Priscilla
55:52Catuera, Zombie Girl, taking on Nina
55:54Milisovich. Priscilla Catoera has a
55:56record of Catoera's record 13 wins, nine
55:59losses. Milisovich has a record of nine
56:01wins with only one loss. Nina Milisovic
56:03massive favorite against Zombie Girl
56:05minus 445 odds with the underdog price
56:08tag on Priscilla Catoera sitting at plus
56:10350. Yeah, I think Catoera's days in the
56:13UFC are are numbered or done however you
56:16want to look. Well, they're obviously
56:17not done cuz she's fighting next week,
56:19but I think they're numbered, man. 13
56:21and N record. We love Zombie Girl over
56:23here, you know, like she has provided
56:25some brutal knockouts. She's provided
56:27some brutal knockouts on both sides.
56:29She's been knocked out brutally. She's
56:30knocked out girls brutally. She's always
56:33game. She walks forward. She will cheat
56:35to get out of submission attempts. She's
56:37I like the zombie girl. I just feel like
56:38she's in over a head here. I mean, I
56:40think she's washed to be honest. She's
56:4138 years old now. Look, if she keeps the
56:43fight on the feet, there's a potential
56:45that she can land big shots on Nina and
56:47she land big shots on anyone and knock
56:49them out. However, I think Nenah is
56:50going to take her down and submit her.
56:52She's always struggled with the
56:53grappling and Nina does like to go to
56:55the grappling. I don't think Nenah is as
56:56good as her. Maybe her record shows or
56:58her last fight. She was a massive
57:00favorite against Haley Cowan and like
57:01she got a body shot, but Cowan's not
57:03really a fighter. She, you know, quits
57:05and gets knocked out all the time. I
57:06don't think Nenah's the best girl, but I
57:09think she's better than Zombie Girl. So,
57:10I got Nina Milisovich to win this fight
57:12via submission. Next up on the card, we
57:14have Mitch Raposo taking on Marcus
57:16Degley. Mitch Raposo coming into this
57:17fight 11 wins, three losses. Marcus
57:19Degley has a record of 15 wins and three
57:22losses. Marcus Degley is the minus 245
57:24favorite in this contest with the under
57:26price tag on Mitch Raposo sitting at
57:28plus 205. This is actually a very good
57:29fight. Mitch Raposo, I'm not going to
57:31say he was clowned, but I kind of feel
57:33like he wasn't really rated or respected
57:35too much. He had a couple of split
57:36decision wins where he clearly lost.
57:38Sorry, not split decision win. He had
57:39split decision losses, but he clearly
57:41lost those. They shouldn't have been
57:42split decisions. And I think because of
57:44that, people are kind of underestimating
57:45him a little bit. I bet him against Alan
57:47Asamento in the first fight. Obviously,
57:49that was canceled. The odds changed
57:50quite dramatically in the second fight.
57:52So I passed on that fight. He did win
57:53that fight. I guess right now I want to
57:55also take the time to say rest in peace
57:57to Alan Nasamea. We have said that
57:59before. Obviously the guy is an absolute
58:00legend of MMA. I did do a semi- big
58:02segment about it when it first happened.
58:04But you know always mentioning his name
58:06reminds me and it should remind you how
58:08short life is. It's October 29th when
58:11I'm recording this. And yesterday was
58:13the 4year anniversary of one of my
58:15friends dying. The day before that was
58:17the one-year anniversary of my nan
58:19passing away. And the day before that
58:22was the 4-year anniversary of one of my
58:25good family friends dying. Someone that
58:27I called my uncle my entire life. So
58:29life is extremely short. You know, I
58:32don't speak too much about real life on
58:34the internet. I usually just go straight
58:35for MMA betting. But tell your family
58:37you love them. You know, spend more time
58:39with them. Tell your loved ones you love
58:42them. Tell your friends you love them.
58:44Spend more time with people that you
58:46love. And also go for your dreams. You
58:48only live once, man. And you just don't
58:50want regrets when you die. I mean, we're
58:51all going to have some regrets. You
58:53know, a lot of people say they don't
58:55have regrets because it put them in a
58:56position where they are. And I
58:58understand that mindset and I kind of
58:59adopt that mindset as well. But at the
59:01same time, you do make mistakes in life.
59:03And some things you probably do wish you
59:05could change. Whether that's spending
59:06more time with people that may not be
59:08here anymore or certain way you spoke to
59:10someone. But I think the goal of life is
59:13I guess to have as little regrets as
59:15possible. And oftentimes people don't
59:17regret what they do, but they regret
59:19what they don't do. You know, I hear
59:20that quite often from people on their
59:22deathbed when they interview people with
59:24terminal illnesses and stuff, most of
59:25the regrets that those people say are
59:27things that they didn't do rather than
59:29things that they did. So, if there's
59:31stuff that you haven't done that you
59:32want to do, like chasing your dreams or
59:35whatever it may be, go ahead and do
59:36that. We'll get back to the fights. Now,
59:38I didn't necessarily mean for it to go
59:40there, but at the end of the day, you
59:41know, these are just fights. This is
59:42MMA. there's things that are a lot more
59:44important than them. But getting back to
59:46the fight boys, I I think that
59:48Mitroposa, like I was saying, was
59:50probably a little bit underrated. I
59:51think he's probably not underrated
59:53anymore after a very good win over a
59:55very good fighter in Alan Nasento. And I
59:57think he will probably frustrate his
1:00:00opponent deadly early here with the
1:00:01footwork cuz he's got very good
1:00:02footwork, very good in-n-out movement.
1:00:04He's hard to get a read on. He's hard to
1:00:06get a beat on. However, in rounds two
1:00:08and round three, you do see certain
1:00:09opponents, Sumu Daraji, Andre Lemur,
1:00:12kind of get a read on him and start to
1:00:14piece him up a little bit, which is kind
1:00:16of how I see this fight going. I think
1:00:17Mitch will start out well early, but I
1:00:20do favor Degley. I mean, Deli's got a
1:00:21lot more power than him. I'm not going
1:00:22to say he's more durable cuz Mitch is
1:00:24actually quite durable, but Degley is in
1:00:26my opinion more power. And it was quite
1:00:28impressive what he did on Dana White's
1:00:30Contender Series where he took his
1:00:31opponent down repeatedly and got the
1:00:33submission, you know, because he's more
1:00:34of a striker. So, it showed me that he
1:00:35had that in his back pocket, which is
1:00:36good to see. Obviously, Mitchoso does
1:00:38like to shoot in a lot. So, could we see
1:00:40a reversal here? Could we see a
1:00:42guillotine attempt here? Could we see
1:00:43Marcus Degley reversing some of the
1:00:45wrestling positions and showing his
1:00:47better jiu-jitsu? Mitch is the better
1:00:48wrestler in my opinion. Degree the
1:00:49better jiu-jitsu fighter probably. And
1:00:51that's what you would expect from a
1:00:52American versus a Brazilian. Ultimately,
1:00:54I think it's a close fight though. I'm
1:00:55going to go with Marcus Degley to win
1:00:56the fight. I think he's a little bit
1:00:57better. I think he's a bit more
1:00:58athletic. I think he hits a bit harder.
1:01:00I think he's probably got better better
1:01:02jiu-jitsu. I think he's a slightly
1:01:03better striker. Overall, I'm going to
1:01:04pick Marcus Dley to win the fight. I'll
1:01:05say he wins the fight via decision
1:01:07because of how tough mitches, but I will
1:01:09pick him to win. Next up on the card, we
1:01:10have Thomas Peterson taking on Gabriel
1:01:12Loreno. Thomas Peterson coming into this
1:01:13fight, 11 wins, five losses. Gabriel
1:01:15Loreno coming into this fight, eight
1:01:17wins, one loss. Thomas Peterson finds
1:01:19himself as the minus 167 favorite here.
1:01:21The price tag on Gabriel Loreno comes
1:01:23back at plus 142. Boys, hold my hands
1:01:26up. I have not taped Gabriel Loreno yet.
1:01:29Not even one fight. I'm sorry. I was
1:01:31quite rushed this week doing a lot of
1:01:32stuff. It is the only fight I haven't
1:01:34taped at all. And so I promise to give
1:01:37you a written or a voice breakdown in my
1:01:40Telegram channel later on in the week
1:01:42when I actually do the tape study for
1:01:43this, which won't be too long. In the
1:01:45next couple of days, I'll do the tape
1:01:46study. Maybe by the time you join my
1:01:48Telegram channel, I'll even have the
1:01:49breakdown in there. But if not, it will
1:01:51come and I'll give you a little updated
1:01:52breakdown on Joseé Delano's grappling
1:01:54and stuff like that. As we mentioned
1:01:55earlier, one thing I will say is that
1:01:56it's extremely weird the way this fight
1:01:58got put together. So, the original fight
1:02:00was meant to be Loreno versus Hines, but
1:02:03then Hines has pulled out and he made
1:02:05the announcement that his training
1:02:07partner is filling in, which is Thomas
1:02:09Peterson. They did a joint post just 6
1:02:11days ago saying that Thomas is looking
1:02:14really good. Hines said Thomas is
1:02:15looking good. He's putting the finishing
1:02:16touches on his training camp, but I
1:02:18don't know how much training camp he
1:02:19could have had because Hines was meant
1:02:20to fight him. How can Thomas have any
1:02:22training camp when Hines was the one who
1:02:24was having the training camp and just
1:02:26recently pulled out? Thomas has filled
1:02:28in when? two weeks ago. How can you put
1:02:30finishing touches on a training camp
1:02:31when you fought two weeks ago? I guess
1:02:33he's just speaking in general. Like if
1:02:35the training camp's one week or 10
1:02:37weeks, they can still call it a training
1:02:38camp, but I don't think it was much of a
1:02:40camp, but obviously he was training with
1:02:41Hines. But yeah, that's all I really
1:02:43have on the fight, boys. Just the weird
1:02:44way it got announced and the fact that
1:02:46it is a short notice fight for both
1:02:47fighters, but specifically for Thomas
1:02:49Peterson stepping in for his training
1:02:51partner, Alvin Hines. For the sake of
1:02:53the show, I will give a prediction. I'm
1:02:54obviously going to go with the UFC
1:02:56veteran who's fought way higher level of
1:02:58competition. This is complete wiki
1:03:00capping, but you know, for the sake of
1:03:02the show, I'll give a prediction. Thomas
1:03:04Peterson via submission is my official
1:03:06prediction. So, that culminates the end
1:03:08of the show, boys. Thank you very much
1:03:10for being here. Hit the free Telegram
1:03:12link in the bio if you want to get more
1:03:15free bets and my breakdowns, which I'll
1:03:17send later. And obviously, if you want
1:03:19to join the Elite Zone, my private
1:03:20betting community, and actually cash
1:03:22along with me each fight night, you can
1:03:24also do that via the link in the bio as
1:03:27well or in the pinned comment. Outside
1:03:29of that, peace and love, boys. Good luck
1:03:31to you this weekend and I'll see you in
1:03:32the next

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