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UFC BELGRADE PREDICTIONS | UFC BELGRADE FULL CARD BREAKDOWN — Transcript

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0:00full card breakdown and predictions for
0:01UFC bio. As always, you can call me
0:04Kunith. Let's make some money this week.
0:06At the top of the card, we have Uros
0:07Medic. He's fighting D-Rod Daniel
0:09Rodriguez this week. And the line is a
0:11little bit wide. And I will say this for
0:13most of the card. There's landmines
0:15everywhere. So, you see these big odds
0:17and you're going to start parlaying them
0:18up. But I'm telling you, there are live
0:19dogs on this card that are just going to
0:21bust parlays left and right. A rose med
0:24is not the kind of guy that you look at
0:26at nearly minus 400 and say, "Sure,
0:28that's going to be a parlay piece." You
0:29don't do that, Junior. And I don't say
0:31that because I don't think he's going to
0:32win. I do think Aros Madich should win.
0:35He is faster than D-Rod. He's been more
0:37active. D-Rod's been in prison long time
0:40away. And that's not really conducive to
0:42knowing how to fight in professional MMA
0:44fighters. I don't think there's too many
0:45of them walking around theelves. You
0:47know what I mean? Now, Eros should win,
0:49right? I do expect him to win. I'm going
0:50to pick him to win. I'm going to pick
0:51him to win by knockout. I just worry
0:53that you make him a parlay piece and he
0:55ends up getting dropped at some point.
0:56He gets dropped pretty frequently. He's
0:58not [clears throat] somebody who is
0:59going to be able to walk through the
1:01fire to get you a whole lot of wins. He
1:03either beats you early or you beat him.
1:05And that's kind of the way it goes,
1:06right? Anybody that's getting starched
1:07by Puna Helle Soraniano in under a
1:09minute, there's got to be caution tape
1:11around that button when you try to put
1:12it in your parlays. And tactically,
1:14Daniel Rodriguez has the tools to catch
1:16him. Daniel Rodriguez throws a really
1:18smooth left hand. It's kind of like when
1:19somebody's teaching you how to box,
1:21throw a one, two, and then they hit you
1:23with a left hook to make sure that your
1:25hand is up. D-Rod throws that left hook
1:27constantly. And I could see a situation
1:29where Ro Medich just walks onto
1:31something, gets caught on the chin. This
1:32was a guy who got dropped by Gilbert
1:34Erbina. This guy got dropped by Matt
1:35Semllesburgger. This guy got dropped by
1:37Puna Heliano. So again, I think he's
1:39going to win. But the whole point of
1:41this part of the breakdown is to say
1:42maybe you don't need to go there. And
1:43I'm not really big on betting on the
1:45main event anyway. I did it last week
1:46because Magdank alive inside the
1:48distance was a lock even though he tried
1:51his best not to. But typically I try to
1:53avoid betting on the main event because
1:54it's just I guess negative EV if you
1:57will. But I will take Aros Medic. I'll
1:59take him by knockout. He's not one of
2:00the favorites I think is going to lose,
2:02but proceed with caution. Let's move.
2:04Next, we have the return of Yan Bohovich
2:06at the ripe age of 43. Good for you,
2:08Yan. Fighting Navajo Sterling, who is
2:11taking this fight on, I guess somewhat
2:13of short notice. He's stepping in for
2:14Bdon Gusov, who just fought last week,
2:17if you call that fighting. Another
2:18situation where the line is pretty wide,
2:20and I just don't see how you don't look
2:22at plus 265 on the Yan side and get
2:25there. I don't see how you don't do it.
2:26Doesn't make a whole lot of sense for me
2:28for Navajo Sterling to be this big of a
2:30favorite. Like, yes, he's finally
2:31starting to knock guys out. That was a
2:32big knock on Navajo Sterling earlier in
2:34his UFC career. Personally, it didn't
2:36bother me too much. I knew that because
2:38he was getting in early, the development
2:39was still there. The finishes will come
2:41and then he gets a chinny guy like Bruno
2:43Lopez. He gets Ewan Couta who is
2:45arguably his best win, which is funny
2:47because Iwan Coute Laba and Yan Bohovic
2:49aren't even in the same tier. So, if
2:52Navajo Sterling finds a way to win here,
2:53that's going to be huge. I am on the Yan
2:55Bohovich side though. I just think
2:57Bohovic is going to give him more things
2:58to think about. I think he can get
2:59takedowns here. We've seen this guy
3:01taken down in the past. We saw Ewan Cout
3:03Lava take him down a bunch. Nearly
3:04finish him in that first round. Adulo
3:06Bolado get a couple of takedowns. We saw
3:08Tuco Tokos take this guy down a few
3:10times. I think if Yonhovich wants to, he
3:12can get him to the fence. He could shoot
3:14for that single leg and he can get in
3:15top position. And you look at the guys
3:17that Yonhovich has fought over the last
3:19couple of years. He's fighting
3:20champions. He's fighting Magamed
3:22Ankollay. He is fighting Alex Para,
3:24fighting Carlos Olberg, fighting Bogdan
3:26Gusov, Alexander Rakage, Glover Terara,
3:29Israel Adosana. Like this is one of the
3:31strongest strengths of schedule you'll
3:33find from anybody active on the UFC
3:35roster today. And even before those
3:36fights, Dominic Reyes in his prime, Cory
3:39Anderson, Jacare Ray who made a lot of
3:41noise at 185 for a long time, Luke
3:44Rockold who was a champion at 185,
3:46Thiago Santos who fought for the belt at
3:48205. I think that Navajo Sterling is a
3:50significant step down in competition to
3:52what Jan's been dealing with lately. And
3:54one of the big knocks on Navajo Sterling
3:56that I see fans have online is they call
3:58into question the fight IQ. He doesn't
4:00always make the best decisions. There's
4:02guys that he probably should have
4:03finished that he didn't finish. And then
4:04there's positions that he's in that he
4:06probably shouldn't have been in. You
4:07should finish a guy like Tuco Tokos and
4:08Ivan Urslan. You shouldn't be nearly
4:11losing to a guy like Ewan Couta, but not
4:13if you're going to fight at a
4:14championship level. Now, I'm not saying
4:15that he can't one day. And I'm not
4:17really too concerned about the age gap
4:19here. Like I know he's the much younger
4:20guy. I know Yonhovich probably doesn't
4:22have that many fights left. Yamblhovich
4:24coming off of the knee injury and having
4:25to get surgery. But the surgery went
4:27well. And there have been guys
4:28especially in the heavier weight
4:30divisions like we have here who fight
4:32well later into their career. You see a
4:34guy like Jared Cananeer, a guy like Yan
4:35Blovic, a guy like Glover Tara winning
4:38championships later into his career. A
4:39guy like Daniel Cormier. And a big part
4:41of Jan's game is the low kick. We
4:43haven't really seen Navajo Sterling deal
4:45with great low kickers in the UFC yet.
4:47So when Yan Bohovic starts chipping away
4:49at that lead leg, making him switch
4:51stances, making him move backward, I
4:53think Yan Blhovich has a lot of success.
4:55And historically, Blhovich has a really
4:56good chin. So if Navajo Sterling, the
4:58knock on him is that he hasn't really
5:00been putting people out. Yan Blovich
5:01isn't the kind of guy to get put out. So
5:03I think the better minute winner here is
5:05the guy with richer experience. He's
5:07going to be the one moving forward. He's
5:08going to have the better low kicks. He
5:10can wrestle more effectively. And if he
5:11does land with some power, I could see
5:13Navajo Sterling getting in a little bit
5:14of trouble. So, I think this is a
5:16veteran lesson, a big step up in
5:18competition. I'm taking the underdog.
5:19Give me Yonhovich to get it done on the
5:21scorecards. And real quick, if you
5:22haven't already, like the video,
5:24subscribe to the channel, comment
5:25something for the algorithm. You know
5:27how the algorithm works. Next, we're
5:29looking at a fight between Marin Tyura.
5:31He is fighting Alexander Rakage this
5:32week. This would be a travesty if
5:34Alexander Rakage lost this fight. Just
5:36the skill gap between the two should be
5:38enough. And I know Alexander Rakage
5:40coming off of that bad knockout loss to
5:41Azamont Merzakanov where he got caught
5:43with just it was so such a strange way
5:45for him to enter the pocket. It almost
5:47reminds me of like Beexan and Brad
5:50Katona entering the pocket chin first.
5:52I've never I've never understood that at
5:53all but he did and he ended up getting
5:55caught and he got put out. Now I think
5:57at 205 maybe he was just cutting too
5:59much weight, right? The guy was never a
6:00small light heavyweight. 265 or at least
6:03the heavyweight division is probably a
6:05better home for him. gets to enjoy a
6:07little bit of a speed advantage and even
6:09if he's not so much quicker, he's just
6:11looking at guys that are moving a lot
6:12slower than what he's used to. On top of
6:14that, he always has had a pretty good
6:16chin, but now that he's not cutting the
6:18weight, the chin's going to hold up even
6:19better. And against a guy like Marin
6:20Tyora, who was really just there kind of
6:23falling into like that even blob of a
6:26heavyweight category, I can see Rackets
6:29just kind of styling on him from the
6:31outside. kicks to each level, letting
6:33that jab go, kind of playing with his
6:35range and his distance, and just
6:36outpointing him to a decision win here.
6:38I'd be really surprised if he knocked
6:40Martin Tybora out. I think there are
6:42going to be moments in this fight where
6:43he's going to have to get off the fence
6:45and he's probably going to struggle to
6:47do that because of the bigger, stronger
6:48man in Tybora keeping him there. But
6:50once he does create that space and start
6:52scoring, that's what's going to lead to
6:54him winning rounds and that's what
6:55should lead to him winning the fight.
6:56line is a little bit wide for a guy who
6:58hasn't had that much success in the UFC
7:00octagon lately, but I think the matchup
7:02is fine. Like the speed difference
7:04between the two is going to be evident
7:05very early and he should do enough to
7:07get the win. And Rakage by decision or a
7:09little sneaky one, I'll let you in on
7:11it. Rakage over significant strikes
7:13might end up being on We Want Picks
7:15official bets for the week. We've been
7:16crushing. I think we were profitable for
7:18nine of the last eight events or
7:20something like that.
7:22Just consistently crushing for $10 a
7:25month. absolute best value in the game.
7:26I mean, if you hate money, you hate
7:28money, you don't get it. But if you like
7:29money and you like winning money, then
7:31we want Pix is where you should be. You
7:32can hit this QR code. You can hit the
7:34link in the description or in the pinned
7:35comment if you're interested in getting
7:37the best tools in the game at the lowest
7:39available price. I cannot stress that
7:40enough. Next, we have Dusco Tudorovich.
7:42He's fighting Robert Valentine this
7:44week. I know people are on the
7:45Tudorovich side. When I first saw this
7:47fight announced, I thought Dusco might
7:49have something here. Looked all right
7:51last time out against Jose Medina. Jose
7:53Medina is just kind of there. That's a
7:55fight that you should win. Dusco was a
7:57huge favorite. But when you look at the
7:58betting odds with Dusco over the last
8:00couple of years, when he's the favorite,
8:01he wins. When he's the underdog, he
8:03loses. They figured him out. And by
8:04they, I mean the books about three
8:06fights into his UFC career. After he was
8:08favored to beat Gregory Robocop
8:10Rodriguez, they knew enough is enough.
8:12Now we we got an idea of what we're
8:14dealing with here. And they have been
8:15right every time. He is favored to win,
8:18he wins, and when he's not, he loses. I
8:20know because people are on the Dusco
8:22side that the line is probably going to
8:24get a little bit better by fight time
8:25for Robert Valentine. So, if you want to
8:27wait to pull the trigger, that would
8:29make sense. I'm all over Robert
8:30Valentine this week. Valentine,
8:32Valentine, whatever it is, we're there.
8:34He's probably not the better wrestler
8:36between the two, but he's the better MMA
8:38grappler between the two. I could see
8:40him getting to a position where he can
8:41finish this fight by submission. Dusko's
8:43never been submitted before, but Robert
8:45Valentine can do it. And the guy's just
8:47had really rough matchmaking since
8:48coming into the UFC. He fought Ryan
8:50Loader on the Ultimate Fighter finale.
8:52Should have won the fight. Literally had
8:53a rear naked choke, fully locked in, and
8:55couldn't finish the choke, which I
8:57thought was absurd. He ends up losing
8:58that fight. After that, though, they
9:00give him Torres Finny, a guy who's just
9:01not going to fight you and just try to
9:03take you down over and over and over
9:05again. Torres Finny won that fight with
9:07four significant strikes landed. That
9:08lets you know what was going on that
9:10night. Ate Goautier next. Who's beating
9:12that guy? And when they finally give him
9:14somebody who is just going to go out
9:16there and try to fight him, it was
9:17Julian Leblanc. and he runs through
9:19Julian LeBlanc no problem. He is better
9:21than his record would suggest,
9:23especially his UFC record. While
9:25Tudorovich is chinny, he's dealt with
9:27injury and I think that if he does want
9:29to go the path of wrestling here, he's
9:31probably going to get guillotined or
9:32reversed to get his back taken and get
9:34submitted. But if that's not the case,
9:35he's a chinny mister and I think that
9:37Robert Valentine could probably find
9:38that jaw. Club and sub is definitely on
9:40the table. Give me Valentine to win this
9:42fight. Next, we have Vasto Sepo. He's
9:44fighting Gilbert Erbena this week. I'm
9:46on Sepo, right? And I know the line is a
9:48little bit wide for a guy making his UFC
9:49debut. There's a lot of debuting
9:51fighters this week that are coming in as
9:53pretty big favorites. Last week, all the
9:55debutants won except the one who was
9:56fighting another debuton. So, I'm not
9:58too worried about that. I really just
10:00think that Gilbert orbina kind of
10:01struggles with the physicality of this
10:04level of MMA. We mentioned at the top of
10:06the video about how he dropped Aost
10:08Medic and then Medic gets right back to
10:10his feet and knocks him out with the
10:12first punch he lands. Damn near. Charles
10:13Radkkey put this guy on a t-shirt and
10:15Charles Radkkeyy's got power but just
10:17the response that Gilbert Erbena gives
10:19these guys when they start landing just
10:20does not look good. I think the
10:22physicality is a little bit too much for
10:24him. He's kind of wiry for the division
10:26and sometimes that works. Sometimes
10:28those wiry guys are as game as they
10:29come. But I think that Gilbert or Bbena
10:31once it just is not going his way his
10:33body says no I'm good on this. I'm out
10:34of here. And the guy that he's fighting
10:36can be sloppy, can be wild, can throw
10:39over his feet basically, right? can
10:41swing himself onto the ground. But you
10:43know, some guys swing themselves onto
10:44the ground to become world champions.
10:45But I like Seepo. I think he wins. I
10:47think it's a knockout. I like taking the
10:49under one and a half rounds. It's
10:51probably the best bet here. But give me
10:52Seo to make good on his UFC debut.
10:54Gilbert or Beina just struggles with the
10:56physicality. Next, we have two
10:57debutants. So, there's one that's
10:59guaranteed to win. We have Milos Janich.
11:01He's fighting Noah Gognon. Goon. I don't
11:04know how the French do it. My initial
11:06reaction to this fight was to be on the
11:07Janich side because Gugno is French. But
11:10sometimes these Frenchmen don't look
11:12French at all. Mm- Axel Solo last week
11:15didn't look French at all. Sirill Gan
11:17against Alex Para didn't look French at
11:19all. We picked both of them there. The
11:20French are starting to win me back. And
11:21Gugno is no different. I do a little bit
11:23of research on these guys and I learned
11:25that Janic is not fighting MMA. Nope.
11:27Fighting kickboxing, fighting dirty
11:29boxing, fighting bare knuckle boxing.
11:31And then when he does fight MMA, he
11:32fights cowboy. And not that cowboy, the
11:35other cowboy. Bit of an identity crisis.
11:37Are you an MMA fighter or not? Whereas
11:39Gugno guys fight in MMA, he's grappling
11:42outside of MMA competition. And I think
11:44that's where the difference is going to
11:45be made here is when this fight ends up
11:47hitting the mat. So when that happens, I
11:49expect the Frenchman who was more
11:51comfortable down there, who's been
11:52working on that part of his game, who
11:53has made it a big part of his game to
11:55have more success when the fight's
11:57there. They're both going to be dealing
11:58with some nervous energy. Obviously,
12:00both going to have those debut jitters,
12:01but I think you can calm down a little
12:03bit when you're on the mat in a dominant
12:05position, whereas you could be kind of
12:07stiff and tight and herkyjerky when
12:09you're striking. So, I expect Gugno to
12:11go out there, look for takedowns early,
12:13and just try to implement that part of
12:15his game where he's obviously got the
12:16advantage cuz if he stays on the feet,
12:18he's in trouble. You don't need to do
12:19that much research to find out that
12:21Janich does have bombs, right? He will
12:23throw with everything. He will put you
12:25out if you're not careful. But Gugg know
12:27knows that Gugg knows. So he's going to
12:30take him down. He's going to keep him
12:31there and I expect them to submit him
12:32before the third round. That's a fun one
12:34to bet on. That's one I'm probably going
12:36to be on for the official bets this
12:37week. And I know that again we've been
12:39doing really well with the official
12:40bets. Some of you guys were asking about
12:42like tips, donations, things like that
12:43if you already have a membership and
12:45want to support the channel even more. I
12:46do have a link in the description for
12:48places where you can go and donate to
12:50the channel very very easily. So, if you
12:51want to tip, you want to donate, you
12:52want to get Oscar some Blaze Pizza
12:54because he hasn't had it in 3 months. I
12:57can see most of his ribs. So, it's
12:58normally 3 months when those start
13:00poking out. So, if you want to support
13:01the channel, you can obviously like,
13:03subscribe, comment for the algorithm,
13:05grab yourself a membership, and we want
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13:09able to tip and donate to the channel.
13:11Next, we have a banger of a fight at 155
13:14pounds. Ludic Klein, first fighter ever
13:16broke down on the Kunath MMA channel,
13:18mind you. He's fighting Tufi Musv. Oh,
13:21all my homies hate Figusia because he's
13:23a dirty cheat, right? He cheated against
13:25my boy Agnosio Bahamandez, ends up
13:28winning a round that he got dropped in
13:30because he climbed his way back up to
13:32the fence, then saved himself by holding
13:34on to said fence so he didn't get
13:35suplexed into oblivion. And then when
13:37he's landed some ridiculous ground and
13:39pound, which you got to give him credit
13:40for, the ground and pound against
13:41Ignasio Bahamandez was otherworldly. He
13:44ends up headbutting a poor little
13:45Agnosio down there. So, the guy is just
13:47very dirty. Fights very dirty. And I
13:49know that could be annoying to watch as
13:50fighters, but at the same time, or not
13:52fighters, excuse me, as fans, but at the
13:54same time, if they're never going to
13:56enforce the rules, would you rather bet
13:58on the guy who's cheated before the guy
14:00that doesn't cheat? There are fighters
14:01out there who will do dirty stuff.
14:03Muhammad Naimov will do dirty stuff. You
14:06bet on that guy because he'll do dirty
14:08stuff. Sir Gan will do dirty stuff. You
14:10bet on that guy cuz he'll do it. Jon
14:11Jones will do dirty stuff. You bet on
14:13that guy cuz he'll do it. If defeat
14:14Messiah is not afraid to break the rules
14:16because he knows that nothing's going to
14:17happen, that gives you a little bit of
14:18edge. You should bake in a little bit of
14:20that edge into the price. So that's one
14:23thing he has going for him here. The
14:24other thing he has going for him here is
14:25that Ludovic Klein broke his ankle in
14:27his last fight. Now I'm sure the
14:28recovery is fine. I broke my ankle
14:30before came back better than ever like a
14:32[ __ ] stallion. But it did keep him
14:34out of competition for a while. So while
14:35he's healing up, Musiah is fighting and
14:38he's getting a win over Ignasio
14:39Bahamandez who's really tough. What I
14:41like for Musayv in this fight is that he
14:44does fight really really hard. do go
14:46back and watch the fight against
14:47Bahamandas, but even before that in the
14:49loss against McKT Oral by the numbers
14:52don't jump off the page as far as like
14:54significant strikes landed, but for him
14:55to fight a dominant grappler like that
14:57in his UFC debut up a weight class
14:59nearly was a catch weight of 165 against
15:02a guy who fights at 170 lbs against a
15:05guy who has beaten the person who's at
15:07the top of the headliner of this fight
15:09in Aros. Oro by being a dominant
15:11grappler is putting him in a lot of bad
15:12positions and Tofi Musai who is a
15:15striker primarily is just getting back
15:17up to his feet. He's scrambling well.
15:19He's doing a really good job until he's
15:20not. And that's the relentlessness of
15:22Makttobec Oral by that's just going to
15:24happen. But I like how he just kind of
15:25kept fighting his way into it. Even
15:27against Ignasio Bahamandez, he gets
15:29dropped and immediately is just getting
15:31back up to his feet and he just keeps
15:32fighting. And Ludovic Klein is kind of a
15:35fight manager, right? He's not really
15:37hurting guys a ton. He's not putting
15:39guys out. He's not submitting anybody.
15:40Ludic Klein doesn't even have a recorded
15:42submission attempt in the UFC. So, if he
15:44does get takedowns here, Defi Mousai is
15:46just going to get right back up to his
15:48feet. Where I think Ludovic Klein is a
15:49little bit better is that he just keeps
15:51things tighter. Mousai does tend to be a
15:53little bit wide and winging and when he
15:55wants to strike. He doesn't worry about
15:56what's coming back his way, but he does
15:58have a decent chin. The recoverability
16:00is good. I'm not really too worried
16:01about the age either because he seems
16:03like one of these guys that maybe is
16:05still close to their fighting prime even
16:07at 36. And I think he's just better than
16:09a lot of the guys that Ludovic Klein has
16:11been matched up with. Like there's no
16:12shame in beating guys that you're
16:14matched up with because that's just what
16:15happens. But when you start to go
16:17through the fighters that Ludic Klein's
16:19been in there with, I'm not so high on
16:21many of them. Like Mataus Romeki, we're
16:23going to talk about him. I don't I don't
16:24rate Mataus Reski at all. Matteaus ends
16:27up beating him three rounds to zero just
16:30by taking him down and kind of
16:31outworking him, right? Well, he's going
16:32to do that to a lot of people. I'm not
16:34too worried about it, even though I'm
16:35not all that high on Gameamra myself.
16:37Roosevelt Roberts not UFC caliber.
16:39Thiago Moyes is very hit or miss. I
16:41don't think he's UFC caliber anymore. AJ
16:44Cunningham, come on son. Agnosio
16:46Bahamandez, common opponent. We saw a
16:48lot more damage out of Tfi Mousai than
16:50we saw from Ludovic Klein. Jai Herbert
16:52was putting hands and feet all over
16:54Ludovic Klein and ended up drawing that
16:56fight because of a point deduction
16:58wayward shot. To me, his best win is
16:59Mason Jones back in 2022. But outside of
17:02that, I wrote don't really rate the guys
17:04that he's been competing against. I
17:05think the line is a little bit wide
17:07here. I feel like at that number, that
17:08minus 235, people are going to put that
17:10in their parlays and it might get busted
17:12this week. If Ludovic Klein had a bit
17:14more power in his hands and was landing
17:16that head kick that he was preuf with
17:19more regularity in the UFC and putting
17:21guys out because of it, I'd be on the
17:23Ludovic Klein side, but he's lacking the
17:25submission game. The power really isn't
17:27there. The line is a little wide against
17:29a guy who's willing to do anything in
17:31there. I'm going to take the underdog in
17:32Tafi Mousay. I think he's going to have
17:34bigger moments and steal rounds with
17:36those big moments. And I think if they
17:37do start grappling, he might even be the
17:40better grappler here. So, give me Tiki
17:41Mousai as an underdog. Next, we have
17:43Michael Olivivera fighting Oan Elliott.
17:45I'm sure if you've watched Oban Elliott
17:47fight recently, you've washed your hands
17:49with him. I know that I have. And like I
17:51put on Twitter, one guy here is made of
17:53wood and the other is just a man.
17:54Michael Olivera should be a much bigger
17:56favorite than he is. He's got first
17:58round knockout upside written all over
18:00this fight. huge length advantage, huge
18:03power advantage, just a different kind
18:05of athlete. On one side, you have a guy
18:07who's like born to fight, and on the
18:09other side, you have a guy who was born
18:10and decided to fight. I don't think it's
18:12the end of Oban Elliot in the UFC. I
18:14think Oban will regroup, win some
18:16fights, come back better than ever. But
18:18the matchmaking here, this is, you know,
18:21this is it. Vera is the right side here.
18:23I like Michael Olivera by that first
18:25round knockout. Stupid power. And next
18:26we have the UFC debut of Borislav
18:29Nicolik, a guy who was probably going to
18:31be in the UFC eventually anyway, making
18:33waves over at Brave FC. Fighting Mark
18:35Voligdine, who's just a little bit too
18:37small for my liking. I don't understand
18:39the being 53 and fighting at 135. I
18:42don't get that at all, man. Dude should
18:44absolutely be fighting at 125 lbs.
18:47Doesn't make sense to me to be fighting
18:48these bigger men at bantamweight. He was
18:50supposed to fight Josiah's Musasa, who
18:52ended up pulling out, and that's why
18:53Nicolick is in there. But I was on the
18:55Musasa side as well. I did not like what
18:57we saw out of this guy on Contender
18:59Series. I didn't like what we saw
19:00against John Castanada. He's tough, but
19:03that's really it, right? He's somebody
19:05who's just going to keep fighting you,
19:06keep moving forward, keep coming after
19:08you, but he's not putting a whole lot of
19:09damage on you. Not an elite grappler.
19:11He's just a guy whose best attribute is
19:13his fighting spirit, which can take you
19:15really far. But when you're dealing with
19:16a size disadvantage the way that you are
19:18here, especially with a guy with big
19:20power, a guy who's more experienced than
19:22you, I just don't see a scenario where
19:24Mark Vagdan is able to pull a win out of
19:26this here. So, give me the debutant to
19:28make good on his UFC debut. I'm
19:29expecting a finish before the third
19:31round. Next, we have Bogden Grod
19:33fighting Dennis Bazookia this week. This
19:35is a banger. And I hope MMA fans can
19:37realize like this is what MMA is all
19:39about. It's not about the best fighting
19:41the best. That's not what this is all
19:43about. No, no, no. This is about scrap.
19:45This is about finishes. This is about
19:47two chinny misters who are willing to
19:49put it all on the line and we get to
19:51watch it and it's great and I appreciate
19:52them for it. This isn't a technician
19:54who's going to manage the fight well,
19:56move well, take you down, hold you down,
19:59salt away the rounds and win on the
20:00scorecards every round cuz you didn't
20:02take any damage. That's not what this
20:03is. No, these guys are going to bang.
20:05One of them's going to go down. And the
20:07person who doesn't is going to get a
20:08bonus because whoever's going down is
20:10going to go down in cartoonish fashion.
20:12I guarantee it. Both guys desperately
20:14need a win here coming off of back-to
20:16back losses. Bogden Grod coming off of
20:18that bad knockout loss to Luke Riley and
20:20Dennis Bazooki is coming off a really
20:22bad knockout loss to Mauricio Barbosa.
20:24But the thing about Bogden Grod is that
20:26it's very winging shots. He's wide open.
20:29He's leading with his face and he wants
20:31to get takedowns here. The thing about
20:33Dennis Bazookia, you can see the
20:34knockout loss against Barbosa and you
20:37could almost forgive it because one,
20:39Barbosa might be the heaviest handed guy
20:41at 145 lbs in the world today. But two,
20:45when he did get caught with that hook,
20:46his hand was up. It was just perfectly
20:49placed right in front where the chin
20:51could be caught. But he did have his
20:52hand up. He was being defensively
20:54responsible after throwing the left
20:56hand. So, one guy got caught because he
20:58has bad striking defense. the other got
21:00caught because he was just fighting a
21:01really really big puncher. But I think
21:02as the fight goes on, it favors Dennis
21:05Bazookia. I think he can mix it up a
21:07little bit better than Bogden Grod can.
21:09I know Grod's probably the more willing
21:11wrestler, but I don't know if he's going
21:12to be able to get a whole lot of
21:13takedowns here. And even when he's
21:15gotten takedowns in the UFC, they
21:16haven't really mattered for much. And if
21:18he starts taking down Dennis Bazookia,
21:21maybe take him down, rematch him, take
21:23him down, rematch him, he's going to get
21:24tired. I think if both these guys
21:26sprint, Dennis Bazooki is going to be
21:28the one that can run for longer. And I
21:30think that's how he has to kind of
21:31approach this fight, right? Mind his P's
21:33and Q's early, just kind of touch this
21:35guy at range. He's probably got cleaner
21:36hands, at least a better jab, and just
21:39maybe work that body a little bit
21:40without pulling out the way that he did
21:42against Barbosa, even though the hand
21:44was up. But jab, work the body, defend
21:46takedowns, get back to your feet, and as
21:48the fight goes on, just take over. I
21:50don't trust Bogden Grod as a favorite
21:52against anybody in the UFC. And while
21:54Dennis Bizooki has had a really tough
21:55run, I think he's just in a better
21:57training room overall. So, I'm going to
21:58take the underdog here. I think the
22:00preparation's going to be better because
22:01of the training room. I think the cardio
22:03is better just because of what we've
22:04seen out of Bogden Grod. And if he could
22:06defend takedowns here, there's no reason
22:08why he's not going to eventually find
22:09the chin and ultimately win the fight.
22:11So, at plus money, I love Dennis
22:12Bazookia this week. Listen, listen, man.
22:15Let me tell you, I am not a Mataus
22:17Romeki guy. And the thing is, I pick
22:19against him all the time. And I am right
22:21all the time. If it weren't for that
22:23knockdown in the third round against
22:24Muktek Oral by this guy would be 0 and5
22:27in his last five fights, but he's 1 and4
22:29in his last five fights, which frankly
22:31is not that much better. My problem with
22:32Mataus Rambleski, and you've watched
22:34your channel before, so you probably
22:35know where I'm going with this, but he
22:37wears so much damage so fast. I even
22:40laughed last time I was watching and
22:42then I rewatched it. It made me laugh
22:44again. Fighting Grant Dawson, he gets
22:46head kicked in the first like 20 seconds
22:48of the fight. Immediately cut open.
22:49Immediately. The guy wears a ton of
22:51damage and I just don't like to back the
22:53guy that wears a ton of damage. Now he
22:55comes in at minus 550. No way. No way. I
22:58don't care if he wins. I'm not picking
22:59him. I don't pick Mataus Rambleski. That
23:02number against the guy who wears that
23:03kind of damage is kind of an auto bet.
23:05You just need to take a small shot on it
23:07because why not? But also, as you start
23:08to sink your teeth into this matchup,
23:10the path for Kyle Prepik is there. You
23:13watch him grapple against Benasant Deni
23:15and get out of bad positions, work back
23:17up to his feet. The guy's not a terrible
23:19grappler at all. You see him defend
23:21takedowns against Drew Dober very
23:23easily. And in that fight against Drew
23:25Dober, had they not had the pause in
23:26action because of the low blow, he goes
23:29on to win. He was floating on Drew Dober
23:31before Dober had the pause in action,
23:33was able to get his wind back and then
23:35win the fight. What I really like for
23:37Prepik in this fight though is that he's
23:39not only taller and longer, but he
23:42fights really, really long. He catches
23:44guys right at the end of his punches and
23:46he does a good job of striking while
23:48he's moving backward and laterally. You
23:50saw that against Benoisandi. You saw
23:52that against Drew Dober. He's moving
23:53backward. He's cutting angles and he's
23:55catching them on the way out. And for
23:57Mataus Rambesy, a lot of his game is
23:59just straight line level change
24:02overhand. That's what he likes to do
24:04because he's a shorter, smaller guy.
24:05That's how he has to get in there. But
24:07knees, uppercuts, check hooks, straight
24:10punches down the middle as you're coming
24:11in to kind of intercept you. All of that
24:13is available to Kyle Prepik and Mataus
24:16Rambleski wears a lot of damage because
24:18he doesn't use his hands to defend. He's
24:20more focused on landing his offense than
24:22worrying about the offense coming back
24:24his way. And that's why guys are able to
24:26lump him up, cut him, bruise him
24:28immediately. And if this fight ends up
24:30going the distance, just optics-wise, I
24:32don't think Mataus Rambleski is going to
24:34look all that good by the third round
24:36and probably loses because of that. Now,
24:37what I do like for Ron Bestesky is that
24:39he never stops. The guy is a junkyard
24:40dog. Prepik doesn't do great with
24:43pressure and with pressure with
24:45intention, right? If you are just coming
24:47after him and you're not throwing as
24:48much as you need to, he's going to pick
24:50you apart because the guy is pretty
24:51crafty. But if you're just letting your
24:53hands go and you are getting to that
24:55clinch, you're making it dirty, that's
24:57where you can have success. And that's
24:58where Rombes thrives, right? That's why
25:00he's minus 550. But if he doesn't get
25:02takedowns here, if he doesn't make it a
25:04dirty, grueling, nasty fight, then
25:06Prepik is going to pick him apart from
25:08the outside. And even if they do get
25:10late into the fight, if Prepik's already
25:12kind of sitting on a lead, I don't know
25:14if Mataus Rome is the kind of guy who's
25:16going to come back to beat you. Cuz I've
25:18seen the opposite happen in Romeki
25:20fights. I've seen him start really hot
25:21and then lose. I've seen him drop guys
25:23and then go on to lose the fight. We saw
25:25that against Diego Fahada. He's kicking
25:27Diego FA's ass until he's not and then
25:29Diego FA changes his life. Even last
25:32time out against Grant Dawson, that
25:33first round was all Grant Dawson. Second
25:35round, he drops Grant Dawson and then
25:37ends up getting dominated and submitted
25:39in the third. Matos Rambleski is not the
25:41kind of guy who's going to come back to
25:42win a fight. He's the kind of guy that
25:44can get out and head early and kind of
25:46sit on that lead even against Ludovvic
25:48Klein, right? The prime example of him
25:51not being able to fight back into it.
25:52Down two rounds, goes into the third
25:54round. Ludic Klein breaks his ankle and
25:57Mataus Rambesi doesn't win the fight. He
25:59couldn't beat a guy with one leg which
26:01is just crazy. It's also low fight IQ.
26:03You could have just got up then your
26:06opponent wouldn't be able to get up and
26:07you win the fight. But instead, you sit
26:09there trying to throw ground land ground
26:11and pound and just doesn't work. So, I'm
26:12calling fight IQ. I'm calling damage or
26:15scar tissue into question. I'm calling
26:17length reach. I'm calling striking
26:20defense into question. I'm calling it
26:21all into question at minus 550. Give me
26:23the underdog. Give me Kyle Prepik. I'm
26:26never going the other way. Next, we have
26:27the UFC debut of Nina Malloic. She's
26:29fighting Haley Cowan this week. I don't
26:31think Haley Cowan is long for the UFC.
26:33She looked okay before she didn't
26:36against Alice Pereira, but I think she's
26:38a good athlete, but maybe just not a
26:40great fighter. I don't think that this
26:41is what you need to be doing. Honestly,
26:43I think she's got the grappling
26:44advantage here. I think she's physically
26:45stronger. I think in the clinch, she's
26:47going to enjoy some of her time there,
26:48but when they're out at space, she's
26:50getting lit up. She does not have the
26:51striking to be able to hang with
26:53somebody like Nino is just going to
26:54throw relentlessly with hopes of getting
26:56her out of there. Like she's not showing
26:57up to point fight you. She's showing up
26:59to do damage and put you out. And I
27:01think she could do that this week. I
27:02think Haley Cowan just kind of walks on
27:04to a lot. Doesn't really use her
27:05athleticism in between the grappling
27:08exchanges, right? When she's grappling,
27:10when she has you against the fence, if
27:11she's changing levels, picking you up,
27:13trying to throw you, whatever it is,
27:14looking very athletic, and then outside
27:16of that, looking a bit stiff. So, I
27:18think that in the in between she's going
27:20to get touched up and she's going to
27:21lose the fight because of it. You
27:23probably get a nice number on under two
27:25and a half rounds, but I'm taking Nina
27:26Melisk here to get it done. I think she
27:28wins by knockout. Next, we have Jovon or
27:31Yoan Leica. He's fighting Alexander
27:33Popek. Popc is taking this fight on
27:35short notice. He's making his UFC debut.
27:37This is not who Leica was supposed to
27:38fight. He was supposed to fight the old
27:39Brazilian jiu-jitsu guy. I don't even
27:41remember his name right now. But the
27:42difference here is just physicality.
27:44Like Leica, as you can see, built like a
27:46deep breath. Just a big boy. Just a hos,
27:48right? Neck. No thanks. You can keep it.
27:51I belong to that club as well for what
27:53it's worth. But just too big, I think.
27:55Too big. Chin's too good. And once he
27:57starts getting his position, whether
27:59it's up against the fence or on the mat,
28:01it's a wrap. Alexander Pope is a light
28:04heavyweight who's taking this fight on
28:06short notice, making his UFC debut. It's
28:07not like this is a small heavyweight
28:09that he's competing against. Like, this
28:11is a true heavyweight. He's going to be
28:12dealing with all that size when they get
28:14in there. And I think Lake is going to
28:16look good in his UFC debut. I expect him
28:17to win probably in that second round
28:20after he wears this guy down because
28:22he's coming into this on a full camp. I
28:23expect Lake to finish the fight round
28:26two knockout. And lastly, we have Marina
28:28[ __ ] She's fighting Stephanie
28:30Luciano this week. [ __ ] making her
28:32UFC debut. Stephanie Luciano been doing
28:35a little bit in the promotion. Pretty
28:37big gap here on the mat. On the feet,
28:39it's a little bit closer. Spastic's
28:41going to have some stuff for her, but on
28:43the mat, not particularly close. I think
28:45if the Brazilian gets to her spot once
28:47they're down there, she's going to
28:48submit her pretty easily. But even on
28:49the feet, I I think that Luciano is just
28:52a bit cleaner. And even if she isn't
28:53cleaner, she's just scrappier than
28:55anybody Spastics fought before. You
28:57know, when you're on the regional scene
28:58and you're putting people out, that's
28:59one thing. But when you get to the UFC
29:01and you're fighting somebody who's just
29:03a dog, it changes everything. Like these
29:05strikes that normally would have taken
29:06somebody out, she's eaten them and she's
29:08still coming forward. plays with your
29:10mind a little bit. And I could see her
29:12ending up on the wrong end of some long
29:14Luciano combinations and then probably
29:16either panic shooting or getting taken
29:19down because she's moving backward too
29:21much and the fence surprises her and
29:22then Luciano just changes levels, takes
29:24her down, submits her. I think Luciano
29:26by sub is the best play in this fight at
29:28least, but one of the better plays on
29:30the slate because I think you're getting
29:31good odds there. But that'll do it for
29:33predictions. I was out of town. I had a
29:36family emergency. I had to skip town
29:37immediately. So, I hopped on a plane
29:39like couple hours notice basically and
29:41then I was out for a few days. So, sorry
29:43for the later upload than what we're
29:45used to on the new schedule, but I hope
29:47this helps. I hope you don't get caught
29:49by all the landmines that are going to
29:51be UFC Balograd. Make sure you like,
29:54comment, subscribe, and I wish you the
29:56best of luck. I'll see you later in the
29:57week for DraftKings picks. Let's go.

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