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UFC 334 Gane vs Hokit | Full Card Betting Breakdown — Transcript

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0:00I'm back in a few favorites this week,
0:01but the underdogs I am picking would
0:03genuinely shock you. The time has come
0:06for the UFC 334 breakdown. And in this
0:09video, I'm going to go through the
0:10entire upcoming UFC 334 card with you,
0:13[music] giving you my betting
0:14breakdowns, predictions, and analysis
0:16for every single fight on the card. This
0:18[music] weekend, we have an absolute
0:19banger of a card, a pay-per-view event,
0:22one of the best cards of the year. If
0:23you're talking [music] about the main
0:25and the co-main, in my opinion, in the
0:26main event, we have Ciryl Gane, the
0:28undisputed, the official, the true UFC
0:31heavyweight champion. Now that Tom
0:34Aspinall vacated his belt back in
0:36September, and Ciryl Gane defends the
0:38title [music] against upcoming
0:40undefeated 10 and 0 prospect Josh
0:43Hauketer, a guy who is making waves not
0:46only inside the octagon, but also
0:48outside of it. In the co-main event of
0:49the evening, we have a fight that has
0:51been in the making for many, many years,
0:53the fight to determine [music] the
0:54greatest women's fighter in MMA history.
0:58Kayla Harrison takes on Amanda Nunes for
1:00the UFC bantamweight championship. But
1:03it does not stop there. Yusup Raisov, a
1:05very interesting up-and-coming [music]
1:07prospect, takes on Kai Bahario, someone
1:10who, in my opinion, will still be
1:12gunning for that middleweight [music]
1:13title. We have the return of Terence
1:15McKinney against absolute veteran of the
1:17sport Jim Miller. Anytime Terence
1:19McKinney fights, I am going to be there
1:21to watch [music] it. The most electric
1:23and must-watch fighter in UFC history.
1:25We also have the man, the myth, [music]
1:27the legend, Chris Duncan, as he returns
1:30to the octagon to take on Drew Dober.
1:32That is a lightweight banger. Boys, I'm
1:35going to speak to you about every single
1:36one of those fights, plus every other
1:38fight on the card, with my ultimate goal
1:40to not only tell you who wins, but to
1:41put some money in your pocket. So
1:43without [music] further ado, run the
1:45damn intro, and you know where to find
1:46me.
1:49[music]
1:54What's going on, boys? Welcome back to
1:55the show, and we got a banger of a show
1:57today. We're going to be speaking about
1:58the UFC
2:00pay-per-view. It feels like we just got
2:01done with the Movsar Evloev, Alexander
2:03Volkanovski, PA Yan, Merab Dvalishvili
2:05pay-per-view, and they've given us
2:07another pay-per-view. And in fact, we
2:09have another banger pay-per-view coming
2:10in December as well, so we're going to
2:12finish the year with a bang. That's
2:13Charles Oliveira, Diego Lopez. I got
2:15some hot takes for that card, so make
2:17sure you hit the subscribe button so you
2:18hear my hot takes for that card. But I
2:20can't wait to get into this show, boys.
2:22Quick thing before we start the show. I
2:24recently hit 30,000 subscribers on
2:26YouTube. In fact, we're we're trending
2:27at 31,000 now. I'm going to see live
2:30with you how far we are away actually.
2:31So we're at 30,776.
2:34So that's 224
2:37subscribers to go to hit 31,000. And
2:39like I said, I want to do something big,
2:41maybe a big giveaway for 30,000
2:43subscribers. I'm going to be announcing
2:45that giveaway, the winners of the
2:46giveaway, how to enter the giveaway,
2:48what I'm going to do for the giveaway,
2:50because I want to do something different
2:51than just giving away money. I've done
2:53that for years. Maybe I still do it as
2:55well, but I want to do something a
2:56little bit cooler. I'll be announcing
2:57all of that in my free Telegram channel.
2:59To join my Telegram, you just go down
3:01below, click the link in my bio, and
3:04it'll direct you to a free Telegram
3:06channel. You just request to join, and
3:07one of the admins will let you in. Like
3:09I said, it's completely free, and I'll
3:11be announcing all the giveaways there.
3:12There's also loads of stuff in there
3:13like free bets and stuff, so it's good
3:15to be in there anyway. So that's really
3:16it, boys. I just wanted to get that out
3:18the way before we start the show. Thanks
3:20again for taking us up to almost 31,000
3:22subscribers now. I'm humbled. I
3:24appreciate it. If you haven't subscribed
3:26yet, go down below and do that. And let
3:28me repay the favor to you by breaking
3:30down this fight card in immense detail.
3:33I've done crazy research for this fight
3:35card, and I think you're going to love
3:37it, boys. So let's get into the main
3:38event of the evening and waste no more
3:39time. We have Cyril Bon Gamin Gane
3:42taking on Josh Vato Hokit, Josh Seth
3:46Hokit, Josh part-time rapper Hokit. You
3:48do what you want with that one, boys.
3:49Cyril Gane comes into this fight with a
3:52immense record, 14 wins, two losses,
3:54fighting the best of the best for the
3:55entirety of his career. He takes on the
3:57undefeated Josh Hokit. No losses yet.
4:00Will that continue or end here? He has a
4:02of 10 wins, no losses. Ciryl Gane comes
4:04into this fight as the minus 235
4:06favorite with the underdog price tag on
4:08Josh Hawke sitting at plus 197. All
4:11right, boys. So where are we going to
4:12start with this one? There's a lot of
4:14ways I can take this breakdown, but just
4:17two days ago a diss track was released.
4:19So I think we should start there. Let's
4:21watch this one together. And I'm not
4:23going to play the whole thing.
4:29But maybe I will cuz
4:32I'm kind of feeling it.
4:36[music]
4:37[laughter]
4:40[singing]
4:43[music]
4:49[music and singing]
4:58All right, all right, all right. We'll
4:59stop there. We'll stop there cuz I could
5:01play that [ __ ] for 3 minutes and vibe
5:03out. But boys, I know a lot of people
5:04hate on Josh Hawke and I know a lot of
5:06people just dislike Josh Hawke. It might
5:08not even be hate, right? It's just
5:09dislike. For me,
5:12he's a bit weird. He's done some very
5:13weird things, some things I don't find
5:15funny at all. But then he's done some
5:16stuff that is kind of funny. I think
5:18this is the best thing he's done so far.
5:20But even if he's funny or not funny or
5:22you dislike or like him, the way I see
5:24the world is that there is a place for
5:26everybody. There's almost no fighters I
5:28dislike. Like you have to be a piece of
5:31[ __ ] for me to dislike you. Even if I
5:33don't find you funny or smart or
5:35anything, there's a place for everyone.
5:37You know, when Colby Covington was doing
5:38his shtick, there's a place for him, you
5:40know? Like am I [ __ ] with it? Do I
5:42love it? But there's a place for him.
5:44There's definitely a place for Josh
5:45Hawke in the UFC. He's bringing hype to
5:48this contest. That [ __ ] did millions of
5:50views collectively over socials. Shout
5:53out to Josh Hawke. He's actually a smart
5:55guy, I think. There is a couple of
5:56interviews out there with him when he's
5:58not in character at all. And the
6:00snippets I saw, he sounded like a bit of
6:02a smart intellectual guy. And it makes
6:04sense because he's probably got way more
6:06money because of all the stuff he's been
6:08doing recently. If he was 10 and 0 and
6:10never spoke up, I'm telling you now,
6:12he's got half the amount of money in his
6:13bank account. And at the end of the day,
6:15that's what takes care of your family.
6:16That's what takes care of yourself. But
6:18make no mistake about it, Josh Hokit is
6:19for real. He's a real fighter, and he
6:22wouldn't be able to do all of this
6:23shtick and these diss tracks if he was
6:25losing fights or scraping by on split
6:27decisions. He just wouldn't be able to
6:28do it. No one would [ __ ] with it. It
6:30wouldn't go viral. Everyone would clown
6:32him in fact. I think this is a fantastic
6:34fight, boys. So the first thing that
6:36stands out to me about this match is
6:37that it's a pure striker versus
6:39grappler. Now, of course, they're
6:40fighting for the belt. Can Ciryl Gane
6:42grapple? Yes, he has submission wins in
6:44the UFC. Can Josh Hokit strike? Yes, he
6:47has KO wins in the UFC, brutal KO wins,
6:51standing knockouts like against Max
6:53Jimenez. Obviously it wasn't a standing
6:54knockout, but what I mean is he hasn't
6:56only got ground and pound knockouts like
6:58against Derrick Lewis. He's got standing
7:00knockouts. This guy can throw hands,
7:02right? But for the most part, Ciryl Gane
7:04come up as a striker, and Josh Hokit has
7:06come up throughout his entire career as
7:08a grappler. A little known fact about
7:10Josh Hokit is that he actually wrestled
7:12Bo Nickal. Yes, the Bo Nickal that's 100
7:14lbs lighter than him. He wrestled him
7:16back in the day. They was in the same
7:18weight class in college. Bo beat him,
7:20but Bo has actually come out and said
7:22that Josh Hokit is one of the only guys
7:24who he fought who genuinely believed he
7:27could beat Bo. Like he felt Josh Hokit's
7:29belief in there. And you can see that in
7:31his fighting style. I mean Josh Hokit's
7:33fighting style is absolutely wild. He
7:35truly believes he's going to run through
7:37every opponent that he faces, and he
7:39shows that with relentless pressure,
7:41crazy pace, good cardio, and unrelenting
7:44game. Josh starts every single fight
7:47very aggressive and basically goes balls
7:50to the wall in round one, which in a
7:52five round fight against an elite
7:54fighter like Ciryl Gane, is it going to
7:56be good or bad? I think most people will
7:58be leaning to the fact that it will be
8:00bad because at the end of the day, if
8:02Josh Hokit comes out there, blows his
8:04wad early, doesn't get the finish, and
8:05it's hard to finish someone like Ciryl
8:07Gane, doesn't get the finish, then is he
8:09going to be able to survive for the next
8:10five rounds? So, I understand that take,
8:13but let me give you a different twist on
8:15it. Let me give you a different take
8:16because at the end of the day, boys, a
8:18lot of times fighting can go both ways.
8:20Something that may look like a negative
8:22can actually turn out to be a positive.
8:24So, I'm just going to give you a little
8:25bit of a different perspective shift on
8:27someone like Josh Hocket going balls to
8:29the wall early. So, the main narrative
8:30will be that's a dumb thing to do. But
8:32how about if Josh Hocket goes balls to
8:34the wall early, takes Ciryl Gane down,
8:36breaks him, and taps him out in round
8:38one like Jon Jones did? Then would it be
8:40dumb? No, it would be smart. However, I
8:42don't think that's likely. I don't think
8:44he's going to run through Ciryl Gane. I
8:46don't think his grappling is up to the
8:47level to run through him in round one
8:49like that. His wrestling is, but I don't
8:51think his jiu-jitsu is. However, he may
8:52not need to. Going balls to the wall
8:55early, full throttle, putting it on
8:57Ciryl Gane may make Ciryl Gane tentative
9:00and nervous. If he does that, he's going
9:01to crack Ciryl with some big shots. I
9:03don't care how good Ciryl is at
9:04defending his head strikes, like he's
9:06going to get cracked with some big shots
9:08if Josh Hocket decides to go 100% from
9:11round one. He will land. It will happen.
9:13How is that going to play into the head
9:15and the game plan of Ciryl Gane? It
9:17might throw him off. He might be damaged
9:19going into round two. He might catch a
9:21big shot. He might break his nose. His
9:22orbital might be busted. You don't know.
9:24He also has the wrestling ability to
9:26take Ciryl Gane down consistently. How
9:28will Ciryl respond to that? You know, if
9:30Ciryl gets in his pace in round one and
9:32Josh Hocket kind of stays on the back
9:34foot and Ciryl's able to get that jab
9:36game going, he might be very comfortable
9:38thinking, you know what, I can win this
9:39fight. Whereas if he gets taken down and
9:40mauled in round one, do we trust Ciryl
9:42to come back? Do we trust Ciryl to, you
9:44know, start round two and feel in his
9:46mind and body, I can beat this guy if
9:49he's just been punched up on the ground?
9:50I'm not 100% sure, guys. So, listen, I'm
9:53not saying it's a guarantee that
9:55Hocket's either going to do that. I
9:56think he will go very strong early. He
9:58does it in all of his fights. I 'm not
10:00saying that's a guarantee to be a
10:01beneficial thing, but I'm also saying
10:03that it definitely could be. And the
10:05mainstream narrative, in my opinion,
10:06just because I know the game quite well,
10:08I think people are going to be like,
10:09yeah, he was going to have a good round
10:10one, but then he's going to fall off a
10:11cliff. How about if that good round one
10:13makes Cyril fall off a cliff? It's just
10:15a perspective shift for you boys. I'll
10:17continue breaking down the fight, and I
10:18think we will go a little bit more in
10:19depth on this one and maybe the co-main
10:21event and then aim to run through the
10:23prelims a lot quicker so because I
10:24really want to dig in to some of the
10:26lesser well-known and lesser spoken
10:28about things in this main and co-main.
10:30Everyone's going to tell you Cyril's the
10:31better striker, Hocky's the better
10:33grappler. We'll get to that, but this
10:35fight has so many layers to it. And I
10:36want to speak about the striking. Of
10:38course, Cyril Gane's a much better
10:39striker. In fact, if this fight is in
10:41round three and round four and let's
10:43just say for argument's sake Hocky
10:45hasn't had that much success with the
10:47grappling, Cyril's cardio is still good,
10:49he hasn't really damaged him, he hasn't
10:51worn out his mind and body, then Cyril
10:52is absolutely going to beat the [ __ ] out
10:55of Josh Hocky this weekend on the feet.
10:56His striking is elite, some of the best
10:58striking we've ever seen at heavyweight.
11:00He could be the best striker in
11:02heavyweight history. He could be. That
11:04is possible. So yes, he will tee off on
11:06Josh Hocky. However, the combination of
11:08Josh Hocky's chaotic fight style, like I
11:11said, and his speed on the feet can
11:13still lend him some success on the feet.
11:15Let's not forget Cyril Gane was knocked
11:18down pretty badly by Tai Tuivasa.
11:21Alexander Volkov was having big success
11:23against Cyril Gane on the feet in the
11:25second fight with his kicks
11:26specifically. Cyril Gane is not immune
11:28to getting hurt on the feet and he's not
11:30immune to getting caught with big shots.
11:31Josh Hocky is one of the fastest guys
11:33that Cyril has ever fought. And not only
11:35is he fast cuz Tom Aspinall is also as
11:37fast as Josh Hocky and a better striker,
11:39right? So you might say, yeah, he fought
11:41someone fast before and he absolutely
11:42sunded him on the feet. It was close to
11:4450/50, by the way. The the memory of
11:46that fight is is kind of insane for most
11:49sports bettors and MMA fans. However,
11:51Josh Hocky is comparable in speed to Tom
11:54Aspinall, but they're not comparable in
11:56fight style. Tom Aspinall is a counter
11:58striker. He's a sharp shooter. He draws
12:01reactions out of you and then he lands
12:03his big shots. Cyril Gane was too smart
12:05for that. They had a pot shot in contest
12:07for seven minutes and then it ended in
12:08an eye poke. You're not going to beat
12:10Cyril Gane at that game. It's basically
12:12impossible. Tom never committed to the
12:13takedowns and he didn't fight
12:15chaotically. Josh Hoke is the opposite.
12:16He's going to walk forward into range,
12:18fight chaotically, shoot takedowns,
12:20threaten takedowns, and just land big
12:22shots, man, throw big shots, put himself
12:24in danger, yes, but it's going to throw
12:26Cyril off in my opinion, at least early.
12:29Yes, if the fight's on the feet for 25
12:30minutes, eventually that won't matter.
12:32Cyril Gane will pick him apart. But in
12:34round one, in round one and a half, can
12:36Hoke have some success on the feet based
12:38on his chaotic style? Yes, in my
12:40opinion, he can. And let's flip back to
12:42some of the outside of the octagon
12:44narrative type stuff. Josh Hoke is the
12:46first fighter in a very long time that
12:48is going to try and play mind games with
12:50Cyril Gane. He's the first fighter in a
12:51long time that is going to try and mess
12:53with his head. The last time that
12:55happened, as far as I can remember, is
12:57with Jon Jones and Ngannou, and he
12:59underperformed in both of those fights,
13:01and he also got exposed on the ground in
13:03both of those fights, which we're going
13:04to touch on in a minute as well. But
13:06after all the drama with the Tom
13:08Aspinall, I poke not being a true
13:10champion, then knocking out Alex
13:12Pereira, and Alex going on many
13:14interviews saying that he cheated and
13:17he's a cheater. Now there's this big
13:19thing in the MMA community. Everyone's
13:21calling Cyril Gane a cheater. With all
13:23of this stuff happening and now facing
13:25Josh Hoke, it will try and mess with his
13:27mind. How is Cyril going to respond to
13:29this mentally? We have to speak about
13:31the mental aspect. Do we know how much
13:33it's going to affect them? No. Is it a
13:35good talking point? Yes. Now like I
13:37said, the wrestling aspect we're going
13:38to touch on it, right? So we spoke about
13:40the striking a little bit. Let's speak
13:41about the wrestling here. Now Cyril Gane
13:43has actually been training in the UAE
13:45for this contest, and he's brought in
13:47some heavy heavy grapplers to help him
13:49training for Josh Hoke. So I have no
13:51doubt he's getting good rounds in. He's
13:53training with Nassourdine Imavov, who's
13:54a heavyweight grappler. He's training
13:56with Puya Rahmani, who is a legitimate
13:59legitimate wrestling grappling fighter,
14:02another MMA heavyweight, and also Ramzi
14:05Yahiara, who's a heavyweight wrestler.
14:07So he's training with loads of
14:08wrestlers. He knows what to expect from
14:10Josh Hoke in this contest. However, if
14:12we look back at Cyril Gane's career,
14:14where has he struggled? It's always been
14:15the wrestling, right? It's never been in
14:17the striking. And this is one of the
14:18first fights in his entire career, when
14:20he faces someone with a wrestling base.
14:22The only other two fights were John
14:23Jones and Sergei Spivak. He beat Sergei
14:26Spivak, but Spivak Spivak is at a
14:28athletic disadvantage. He's just not on
14:29that level, right? Josh Hoke would knock
14:31out Spivak in round one, in my opinion.
14:33Cyril Gane did it in round two. And then
14:34the other fight was John Jones.
14:35Obviously, John Jones is John Jones, so
14:37we don't take too much away from Cyril.
14:39However, he did get insta-tapped in that
14:40fight, which John Jones hasn't really
14:42done that to anybody, you know? Let's be
14:43real. John Jones hasn't done that to
14:45anybody. And not only has John Jones not
14:47done that to anybody, but that was his
14:48debut at heavyweight after years away
14:50from the sport. So yes, we don't take
14:52too much from him, but also I have a
14:54sneaky suspicion that there's a lot more
14:56to it than just, oh, it's John Jones.
14:57His grappling is not up to par. You look
14:59at the Francis and Gane fight many, many
15:01years ago. He got dominated by the
15:02wrestling in for three rounds, right?
15:04Against a pure striker. Very, very bad
15:06look. We look at the Alexander Volkov
15:07fight. He won a split decision there. In
15:09my opinion, he lost that fight. How did
15:10he lose it? Grappling. Who is Volkov? A
15:13pure striker. You got out-grappled by
15:14Volkov, a pure striker, and got a
15:16rubbery split decision win. Deep into
15:18your career, he has many, many holes,
15:20and they're all in the grappling. Josh
15:22Hoke is a legit wrestler. This is bad,
15:24bad news for Cyril Gane in my opinion.
15:25Look, Cyril Gane is is a big favorite in
15:27this contest. He's minus 260 on some
15:30bookies. Is a big favorite, right? I
15:31understand why he's a big favorite. If
15:33Josh Hoke doesn't finish him early, and
15:35actually I don't think he will, then
15:37it's going to turn into a tough contest
15:38for Josh Hoke. Cyril Gane is the much
15:40better striker. He's probably more
15:42conditioned, or at least on parity, but
15:45probably a bit more conditioned. He's
15:46gone the five-round distance before.
15:47Josh Hoke has never done that. He's
15:49fought the way better level of
15:50competition, beat the way better level
15:51of competition. I mean, I understand why
15:53this guy is a big favorite. However, I
15:54think this fight is way closer to a pick
15:56'em that the line suggests. I could be
15:58really, really wrong here, guys, but I
16:00think Josh Hoke is going to cause Cyril
16:02Gane hella problems in this contest. I
16:04kind of see this fight turning into a
16:06dog fight, to be honest. And I trust
16:08Josh Hoke in a dog fight more. If Cyril
16:10Gane has to fight sloppy and in the
16:13clinch and he's getting taken down, he's
16:15defending takedowns, I don't know if I
16:17trust him to fight that type of contest,
16:19man. I trust him to outskill his
16:20opponents, to knock his opponents out,
16:22to be too skillful, big, and athletic
16:24for them. But I think Josh Hokit can
16:26cause him problems. I'm going to pick
16:27Josh Hokit out right here. Now look,
16:29boys, I've been pretty convicted on this
16:32breakdown. I don't want you to get the
16:34wrong idea. I do not want you to max bet
16:36this. This is a plus 200 underdog right
16:39here. Don't go throwing all your
16:40bankroll on it. The reason we make so
16:42much money from betting on MMA is
16:44because we spread our risk out over the
16:46card. I'm going to have loads of bets on
16:47this card. Josh Hokit is likely going to
16:49be one of them. I'm still deciding on
16:51that. Maybe there's a better prop bet
16:53that I want to play. So it's not a
16:54guarantee I'm going to bet on him. I'm
16:56going to look at the prop odds. However,
16:58right now it's likely that I'll make
17:00some play on him, whether that be a
17:02small, medium, large play. I will likely
17:04put some money on him unless I see a
17:05better prop. However, he will not
17:07dictate my night. If Josh Hokit loses, I
17:09may sweep all of my other 10 bets on the
17:12card. So that's a disclaimer for all of
17:13the, you know, beginner gamblers and for
17:15people potentially haven't watched me
17:17before cuz I was convicted in that one.
17:19But I am picking Josh Hokit to win this
17:21fight. I'm picking the plus 200 underdog
17:23to get this one done. And I'm going to
17:25say he gets it done via knockout. Next
17:28up on the card we have Kayla Harrison
17:29taking on Amanda Nunes. Kayla Harrison
17:31coming into this fight, 19 wins, only
17:34one loss. What a stellar record. Amanda
17:36Nunes comes into this fight, 23 wins and
17:39only five losses. Currently they have
17:40Kayla Harrison the minus 170 favorite
17:42with the underdog price tag on Amanda
17:43Nunes sitting at plus 145. Here we have
17:46a fight to decide the women's MMA
17:48greatest of all time. Amanda Nunes, 38
17:51years old, trying to solidify herself as
17:53the best. Kayla Harrison, 36 years old,
17:56trying to solidify herself as the best.
17:58So neither of these girls are spring
18:00chickens. I didn't realize Kayla
18:01Harrison was that old to be honest. I
18:03mean, it makes sense in my head, but I
18:05always fought in this fight as Amanda
18:07Nunes being the older party. She is by
18:09two years. Kind of thought it was like
18:11four or five years or something like
18:12that. But both of these girls have been
18:13doing it for a long time. Obviously
18:14Kayla new to the UFC, so it probably
18:16threw me off on her age a a And I think
18:19cuz Amanda Nunes retired back in 2023,
18:22probably in my mind she was a much older
18:24lady. And that's a that's one of the big
18:26talking points here, right? Amanda Nunes
18:28is coming back from retirement, boys. I
18:30mean, that's a big big X factor. She's
18:31been out of the cage for three years,
18:34but not with an injury. I don't think
18:36she's been training so hard in those
18:37three years. She literally retired from
18:39the sport. What's she been doing during
18:41that time off? However, I will say that
18:43this fight was supposed to take place in
18:45January of this year. It's taking place
18:47in November of this year. That is 10 to
18:4911 months later. And so basically she's
18:52had an extra 10 months to get ready for
18:55Kayla Harrison, which I think is going
18:56to help her. Yes, she's had a little bit
18:58longer out the cage, but she's also had
19:00longer to game plan for Kayla. She's had
19:02longer to get in shape. I do think it
19:04benefits Amanda. Look, there is the
19:06other side to it. Like I said, longer
19:08out the cage and she's getting older,
19:10but so is Kayla. And speaking of Kayla
19:12getting older, one thing that I'm not
19:14100% sure about in my mind on this fight
19:17is how Kayla's body's going to hold up
19:18with that weight cut to 135. You guys
19:20will know that in PFL she was the 145 lb
19:23champion. In fact, I believe she was
19:25even the 155 lb champion. I don't even
19:27think she was 145. Let me check. And
19:30yeah, I'm checking now. She was only the
19:32lightweight champion in PFL. So she's
19:34cut from lightweight to bantamweight.
19:36That's a 20 lb weight difference.
19:38Massive weight difference in the UFC. In
19:39fact, when she was making her debut, I
19:41didn't even think she was going to make
19:42weight. She did make weight. She choked
19:44out Holly Holm in her debut. We bet on
19:46her to finish there. And then in her
19:47last fight she fought Juliana Peña for
19:50the title and she made championship
19:52weight, 135 lbs on the dot. She is
19:54killing herself to make these weight
19:56cuts. I have seen the visuals. It is not
19:58a good look for Kayla Harrison making
20:00135. As she gets older, it's just going
20:02to get harder and harder and harder.
20:04That is a big X factor in this fight,
20:05boys. Is her body going to hold up?
20:07Look, she's already done it three times
20:09in the UFC. Her last fight was over a
20:10year ago. I have to believe that her
20:12body does hold up. But at some point,
20:14I'm telling you now, boys, she's going
20:15to lose a fight at 135 unless she
20:17retires. And I think she honestly will
20:19if she wins this fight or maybe even
20:20loses this fight. But if she carries on
20:22fighting, at some point she's going to
20:23lose, not because of her skills, but
20:25because of the weight cut, because what
20:27the weight cut does to her body. She is
20:29a massive one for a 135 pounder. But if
20:31her body holds up, I believe that that
20:34physicality, that size that she has,
20:36will once again allow her to dominate
20:38her opponent, Amanda Nunes, physically.
20:40I really believe that Amanda Nunes is a
20:43level below in the wrestling, in the
20:45grappling, in the physicality. Kayla
20:46Harrison is a one in a one in a
20:49generation athlete. She's so strong, so
20:52powerful. She's basically unmatched
20:54through probably women's MMA history.
20:56There's never been a girl as strong, as
20:58physical as her, and Amanda Nunes is not
21:00going to be able to deal with that in my
21:01opinion. Amanda, for her entire career,
21:04has struggled in the grappling. Yes, she
21:06shored up those holes. She even became a
21:08good grappler herself, but she's got two
21:10losses in the UFC, and both of those
21:12losses came with the grappling,
21:13especially in that first loss. It was
21:14many, many years ago, I think more than
21:1610 years ago now. It was against Kat
21:18Zingano, but she got completely
21:19dominated in the wrestling, and she got
21:20ground and pound finished there in round
21:22three. When she lost to Juliana Peña,
21:23yes, it was all cardio. She still did
21:25get choked out in that fight. She has
21:27done very well to shore up her holes and
21:29like I said, even become a good grappler
21:30herself, but I don't think she's done it
21:32enough to compete with someone like
21:34Kayla Harrison. And something I noticed
21:36in Amanda Nunes fights, right, is that
21:38she's a very sharp shooter, very heavy
21:40power early. She knocks a lot of girls
21:42out. However, when the going gets tough,
21:44when she gets pressured, she does get
21:46tired. When opponents are standing up to
21:48her strikes, when opponents haven't
21:50fallen within the first two, three
21:51rounds, if they're not just punching
21:53back, she does start to get a little bit
21:54tired with the pace and pressure. And
21:56then what does she do to offset the pace
21:57and pressure? She shoots takedowns. She
21:59did it against Juliana Peña in the
22:01second fight. She got takedowns against
22:02Valentina Shevchenko when the striking
22:04wasn't going her way. She dominated her
22:06last fight with grappling. When the
22:08striking isn't going her way or when she
22:10gets pressured, she starts to get tired
22:12specifically, she shoots takedowns to
22:14offset that pressure. She cannot do that
22:16against Kayla Harrison. She won't be
22:17able to do it. She's not going to take
22:19down Kayla Harrison, and if she does,
22:20she's going to gas herself out, and then
22:22Kayla's going to take her down and maul
22:24her on the ground. Another X factor in
22:26this fight, many X factors in this
22:27fight, boys, right? We've done through
22:29some of the X factors, some of the
22:30stylistics. We'll go back to the X
22:31factor now. Kayla Harrison, and this is
22:33an important one. Kayla Harrison is
22:34coming back off that terrible injury.
22:36Why was the last fight between Amanda
22:38Nunes and Kayla Harrison canceled? Kayla
22:39pulled out. Why did she pull out? A bad,
22:41bad neck injury. Anytime someone has a
22:43neck injury, I get red flags, right?
22:45It's not like a broken knuckle, broken
22:48finger, broken wrist, you know, boxers
22:50fracture. Neck injuries are very, very
22:53dangerous. Kayla has said that she's had
22:55five herniated discs in her neck for
22:58years. She said she couldn't sleep
23:00during this time. She said that she had
23:02lightning bolts going throughout her
23:03body because the hernia and the
23:06herniated discs were pressing on her
23:07nerves. She said she was lethargic in
23:09training. She did not compete well in
23:11sparring. She got beat by fighters that
23:13she shouldn't get beat from. This was a
23:15serious injury, right? It seems like
23:17she's got it fixed now back in January,
23:19but at the end of the day, it's an X
23:20factor. It's a red flag. Also, another X
23:23factor, both of these girls were at ATT.
23:25It seems like Nunes has left ATT, but
23:27these girls were to train with each
23:29other. They know what they're capable
23:30of, and then Nunes is very happy to sign
23:32this fight, coming back from retirement,
23:34potentially diminishing her legacy if
23:36she lose this fight. Of course, she's
23:37going to get paid a big bag, so maybe
23:39she doesn't care about diminishing her
23:41legacy, or maybe she knows something
23:42that we all don't. Maybe she knows she's
23:44going to destroy Kayla Harrison because
23:46of the training room sparring that they
23:47had and just in general being around
23:49her. What one is it? Does she want the
23:50money, or does she think she can beat
23:51her, or is it both? Very interesting
23:53fight. Like I said, boys, I think for
23:55me, it seems clear that Kayla Harrison
23:58is just going to be too strong for
24:00Amanda Nunes on the ground. What is more
24:01interesting is if Amanda Nunes can land
24:04some critical damage early. I think
24:05she'll need to to win the fight. I think
24:07she'll need to break Kayla Harrison's
24:09nose. We saw in Kayla's fight against
24:11Kaitlin Vieira, she got damaged very
24:13badly with an elbow. Something like that
24:15could change the trajectory of the
24:16fight. Kayla could come in, you know,
24:18not in the best shape being 36 years old
24:21at 135 lbs, but I do think Amanda need
24:24to knock her out early or land fight
24:26changing damage early. If she doesn't do
24:28that, I think Kayla is going to rinse
24:29and repeat take her down, maul her on
24:31the ground to a finish. And that will be
24:33my official prediction. I have Kayla
24:35Harrison to win this fight via
24:36submission. I want to shout out the
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26:04Hit the link in the bio. Let's get on to
26:05the next fight. Next up on the card, we
26:07have Kyle Bahiao taking on Yusri
26:09Belgaroui. Very good fight here. Bahiao
26:11coming into this fight 18 and two
26:13stellar record. Yusri Belgaroui has a
26:15record of 11 wins, three losses.
26:17Currently, Kyle Bahiao is the -160
26:19favorite with the underdog price tag on
26:20Yusri Belgaroui sitting at +136. Yeah,
26:23so this is a fantastic fight. I mean,
26:25Yusri Belgaroui, big, big step up in
26:27competition here. I mean, he's going
26:28from fighting Jordan Santos to Kyle
26:30Bahiao, and the only thing those guys
26:32have in common is that they're both from
26:33Brazil. Outside of that, the level
26:35difference is big. So, I don' know if
26:37Yusup Bulguy is ready for the step up in
26:39competition. I kind of would have liked
26:41to see Yusup Bulguy fight someone else,
26:44potentially in the rankings, but maybe
26:46not a top five guy and maybe not a guy
26:48with heavy heavy grappling base. I know
26:51Bahia is strikes a lot in his UFC
26:53fights, but at the end of the day this
26:54guy's got a jiu-jitsu grappling base.
26:56However, the UFC does not f around and
26:59Yusup Bulguy is 34 years old. Talking
27:01about it and thinking about it more out
27:03loud, I can kind of understand why they
27:04did this. He fought as a Matt Bekhov.
27:06This guy is a wrestler and grappler as
27:08well, so he proved himself against
27:09Bekhov. They gave him a layup in Jordan
27:12Santos to get some hype on his name to
27:13get an early knockout and now he's
27:14taking a massive step up in competition
27:16against Bahia. It's a good fight, boys.
27:18I can't ignore the grappling difference
27:20in this fight. You know, if you go back
27:22and watch Yusup Bulguy's fight against
27:23Tulio on Dana White's Contender Series,
27:25it was a good fight. However, he lost it
27:27by being grapple [ __ ] You know, round
27:29three he got completely dominated on the
27:30ground. Now, it's not like Tulio had
27:32much success putting any damage on him.
27:34However, he was very gassed out, Tulio,
27:36and he was still able to get the fight
27:37to the ground and he was still able to
27:39hold him down and Yusup had absolutely
27:41nothing off his back. I think Yusup has
27:43good takedown defense. I think he's
27:44improved since that fight as well, by
27:45the way. I think if they fight now,
27:46Yusup would probably knock him out. I
27:48think his takedown defense has improved
27:50massively. His gap ability has probably
27:52improved a little bit, but in terms of
27:53his raw, pure jiu-jitsu when he's flat
27:56on his back, I don't think it's going to
27:58be that much improved, you know? And I
28:00think if Kai Mahia takes him down, it's
28:02probably the round over. In fact, I
28:04would be kind of surprised if Yusup was
28:06able to get back to his feet if Kyle
28:08gets five to 10 seconds of control. You
28:10know, I always mention this. I've been
28:11mentioning it a few years, but like when
28:12you shoot a takedown, there's about five
28:14second period where the takedown is not
28:17yet secured and your opponent can
28:18scramble out. You know, because
28:20obviously takedown you go from standing
28:22to the ground, right? And it's never a
28:23perfect takedown. Sometimes it is
28:25perfect and you end up in side control
28:26or full mount, but 95% of takedowns it
28:29ends up in a bit of an awkward position
28:30for the first second or two. And in that
28:32first second or two, that is where the
28:34opponent can scramble out. If they don't
28:36do that and the the wrestler or the guy
28:38who shot the takedown gets control, you
28:40know, after the first two, three seconds
28:42and he and he's able to, you know, put
28:44you flat on the mat, put your back flat
28:46on the mat, enabled to control you for
28:48those three, four seconds, then that is
28:49the takedown secured. And from there,
28:51it's very hard to get up. Someone like
28:53Yusup Raisov, if he is flat backed on
28:57the mat, I don't think he's going to be
28:58able to get back up. In fact, I think
28:59Kairat Bakhyt Uulu can maybe, you know,
29:01work for an arm triangle here, maybe
29:03work into to a crucifix position, maybe
29:06bait Yusup, get him to give his back up
29:08and take the back. I think Kairat Bakhyt
29:10Uulu's back takes are very good. They're
29:11actually pretty elite and his ability to
29:13keep his opponent down with the back
29:14takes once he's on the ground is
29:16probably one of the best in the entire
29:17division. Now the issue comes with his
29:19actual wrestling, right? And the reason
29:20I'm speaking so much about the wrestling
29:21is because, boys, Raisov is a much
29:23better striker than Bakhyt Uulu. Bakhyt
29:24Uulu can compete on the feet. He won't
29:25get finished on the feet. He's very
29:27smart fighter on the feet. He's
29:28educated, but he won't win on the feet.
29:30Can he win a couple of moments and land
29:32some big shots? Yes, but overall he will
29:34not win on the feet. So the grappling is
29:36really where it comes down to. And in
29:38the grappling, we've established that
29:39Yusup Jiu-Jitsu level is nowhere near
29:41the level of Kairat Bakhyt Uulu.
29:42However, in my opinion, Kairat does not
29:44have great wrestling. You know, his
29:46wrestling ability is not that good. He
29:48didn't have any success taking on
29:49Nasedkin in Marat off down when Marat
29:51off was, you know, winning on the feet.
29:53He had to take the fight down to win and
29:54he wasn't able to do it. He tried to
29:56take Jared Cannonier down, he couldn't
29:58do it. He tried to take Abus Magomedov
30:00down, he couldn't do it. He has 50%
30:02takedown accuracy throughout his career.
30:04So for every two takedowns, he gets one
30:07of them. And Yusup Bakhyt Uulu has very
30:09good takedown defense. So I'm not
30:10confident Kairat is just going to be
30:12able to dart there and just taking down
30:13every single shot. In fact, I think
30:15Yusup will defend a couple. However,
30:16ultimately, boys, I do have to lean to
30:18the experience and just the overall
30:20grappling advantage that Bakhyt Uulu
30:22has. This is a dangerous, tough matchup
30:24for Bakhyt Uulu to take. I'm kind of
30:26surprised he took it. I think he just
30:27wanted to stay active. During my
30:29research, it seemed like he he tried to
30:31create a fight with Hamzat Chimaev. They
30:33even sent me agreed to it on Twitter, on
30:35X, and it didn't come to fruition for
30:37whatever reason. I think the guy wants
30:39to stay active, so he takes this fight.
30:40But this is kind of like a lose-lose
30:42because he's expected to beat the fight.
30:44He is a favorite. Yusri has some hype,
30:46but only really in the hard course. No
30:48casual knows who Yusri Belgaroui is, so
30:50it's not like he's going to gain any
30:51hype or any monetary value from being
30:54Yusri Belgaroui. He's expected to do it.
30:56Yusri is a pure striker, Bahai is a
30:59grappler. He's expected to take him down
31:01and control him and maybe even submit
31:02him. So it's kind of a lose-lose and not
31:03as match-up as dangerous, man. Like if
31:05he's not coming in here 100% motivated
31:08because it's a it's not a Hamzat Chimaev
31:09match-up, you know, so you're going to
31:11be less motivated for Yusri than you are
31:13against Hamzat Chimaev. I don't care who
31:14you are, it's a fact, right? These
31:16match-ups are dangerous and sometimes
31:17they're banana peels. However, I do kind
31:19of like Bahai quite a bit in this
31:20match-up. I just feel like the skill
31:22difference on the mat and the wrestling
31:23is too much and I also believe it's
31:25maybe too much too soon for Belgaroui. I
31:27understand he's 34, he needs to step up,
31:29but I'm not sure he can compete with a
31:31fighter like Kai Bahai after having only
31:33a couple of UFC fights and just being
31:35very under experienced in inexperienced,
31:38I should say, in MMA and especially in
31:40the grappling. I have Kai Bahai to win
31:42this fight via decision. Next up on the
31:44card we have Uros Medic taking on Kevin
31:45Holland. Uros Medic comes into this
31:47fight 14 wins, three losses. Kevin
31:49Holland has a record of 29 wins and 15
31:52losses. Crazy. The veteran MMA record
31:55days had his fair share of everything in
31:57MMA. Currently they have Uros Medic as
31:58the minus 180 favorite with the underdog
32:00price tag on Kevin Holland sitting at
32:02plus 153. All right, this is a very,
32:03very tricky one for me, boys. Like
32:05there's a lot I want to say about this
32:06one. I'm going to keep it fairly concise
32:08though because I think there's a few
32:09main points. So the first thing that
32:10stands out to me is that I'm worried for
32:12Kevin Holland's chin. Not only in this
32:14fight, definitely in this fight, but
32:15also in his entire career. You know,
32:17Kevin Holland to me seems like he's
32:18getting hurt a lot more than he used to
32:20lately and he's had a lot of wars. He's
32:22took a lot of punishment. He's been
32:24rocked and wobbled a lot of times and
32:26he's never really been knocked out. Yes,
32:27Stephen Thompson TKO'd him, but that was
32:30a stoppage in between rounds after he
32:32was just tired, he was beat up badly.
32:34He's never actually been fully knocked
32:35out, but he's been getting cracked hard
32:38in recent years. Michael Page put
32:40massive, massive damage on him, rocked
32:42him all over the octagon, dropped him in
32:44that fight. His very next fight against
32:46Michael Page drops him within 60 seconds
32:49of the fight, was able to get an armbar
32:50win off the knockdown there. Less than
32:52one year later he fights Daniel
32:53Rodriguez, knocked down, hurt badly in
32:56that fight multiple times, almost
32:58finished. And what is that's all coming
33:00the last two years, you know? That's all
33:01coming the last two years only. We can
33:03go back and talk about the Thompson
33:04knockout and all of that and his other
33:06knockdowns. So I feel like his chin is
33:07getting worse and of course he's getting
33:09older. How can it not get worse? I still
33:11think his chin is elite. I think his
33:12chin ability is probably A tier. I don't
33:14think it's S tier anymore. I think it's
33:16A tier. And so stylistics in this
33:18matchup,
33:19is going to land big early, right? He
33:20does against everyone. It doesn't matter
33:21who he fights. I don't think there's
33:22been a fight where he didn't land big
33:24early. Jaylen Turner kind of ramped for
33:26him, but Jaylen Turner still took a
33:27couple of shots there. Even in his fight
33:28against you know, he landed massive
33:30shots on early. This guy is going to
33:32land big shots. He's also coming in with
33:34so much confidence here. I'd be
33:36surprised if he doesn't make it scary
33:38for early with some big shots. The issue
33:41is this guy is not a free run fire,
33:43right? He's not used to going out of
33:45round one yet. He's done it a couple of
33:46times. He's even won outside of round
33:48one before he got a round three finish,
33:49but he's not used to doing it that much.
33:51I don't think he's very comfortable when
33:52a fighter goes late. He gets way
33:54sloppier when the fight goes late. His
33:56cardio falls off the cliff and he's
33:58going up against a veteran who is more
34:00than ready to go late in fights. One
34:02thing I noticed during my research for
34:04this fight is that Kevin Holland for
34:05some reason has beef with Jacobe Smith.
34:07So we could see that as a a next fight
34:10and that'll be a very interesting fight.
34:12Obviously depending on win or lose or to
34:14be honest, even if he wins or loses this
34:16fight, Jacobe Smith could still be a
34:17good next fight for him. So I'm
34:19interested to see that one if that
34:20happens. He's got to get through Medj
34:22first and to be honest guys, I kind of
34:24lean that he does it. I kind of lean
34:25that he does it. I like to fade the
34:26round one finish guys, you know? Uros
34:28Medj is very dangerous early, but he
34:30ain't too much more outside of that, you
34:33know? That's really all he has. He's a
34:35bit of danger early. By the way, that's
34:36took him in very far in the UFC. He can
34:38knock out many men in that way. However,
34:40Kevin Holland has never been knocked
34:41out. He's never been knocked out. Yes,
34:43he's come close many times, but he's
34:44never been knocked out, man. And I have
34:46to back that in here, especially as the
34:48underdog, especially as the decent
34:50underdog at bigger than plus 150. So I'm
34:51going to back Kevin Holland. I'm going
34:52to say wins this fight via submission.
34:54Something I didn't say about this fight
34:56is the grappling. Kevin Holland is a
34:57much better grappler. Does he use his
34:59wrestling? No. Is he a much better
35:00grappler? Yes. Could he find his way to
35:02the back? Yes. Could there be a scram
35:04when something happened? Yes. Like he is
35:07Travis Lutter BJJ. Let's not get
35:09twisted. That's what this guy came from.
35:10So yeah, I think submission is live
35:11here. I'm going to pick it. I think it's
35:12going to be big odds. And it's won me a
35:14lot of money in the past. So Kevin
35:15Holland via submission is my official
35:17prediction. Next up on the card, we have
35:18Lewis Guruli taking on Belal Hassan.
35:21Guruli coming into his fight, 11 wins,
35:23four losses. Belal Hassan has a record
35:25of 10 wins and no losses. He is an
35:27undefeated fighter. And he's the biggest
35:30favorite on the entire fight card.
35:31Almost minus 1,000 here, almost a four
35:34digit favorite Belal Hassan. He comes in
35:36with the minus 925 price tag with the
35:39underdog odds for Lewis Guruli sitting
35:41at plus 625. Yeah, so I don't think I'm
35:43going to spend too long on this one,
35:44boys. I mean, you got almost a minus
35:461,000 favorite here. Biggest favorite on
35:47the card by a mile. This fight is a
35:49setup fight for Belal Hassan to get a
35:52finish on a big stage. That is all this
35:54is. That's all this is. The UFC know
35:56exactly what they're doing with this
35:58matchmaking. They haven't made this
35:59fight because they think it's going to
36:00be a competitive fight. They haven't
36:02made this fight because they think it's
36:03a good matchup to see where Ivan Fighter
36:05is at. No, they made the fight because
36:07they want Belal Hassan to prove he is
36:09who he is, first of all. But second, get
36:11his feet wet on a massive fight card, a
36:13pay-per-view, likely on the main card.
36:16As I'm recording this video, the prelims
36:17and main card have not been fully
36:19announced. Tapology says this is on a
36:21main card, but I've been in this game
36:22long enough to know that that shifts
36:24very often close to fight week and on
36:26fight week. However, I would not be
36:28surprised to see Belal Hassan
36:29potentially open up the main card. The
36:31UFC are pushing this guy heavy. He's a
36:33very, very good fighter, 10 and 0
36:35undefeated. And something I noticed,
36:37boys, which was quite interesting, is
36:38that the UFC actually did a
36:39collaboration post with Belal Hassan on
36:43Instagram on their Halloween post.
36:45That's not a coincidence. You know,
36:46people might see that and be like, oh,
36:47you know, that's Belal Hassan. But I see
36:49that and go, oh, the UFC are pushing
36:51this guy heavy. They did a Halloween
36:53post and it's with Belal Hassan, a one
36:55and 0 UFC record fighter. He's fought
36:58once in the UFC. He's from Indonesia and
37:00they're posting him up on Halloween on
37:02their official Halloween celebration
37:04post. Do UFC know what they're doing,
37:05boys? Louis Gerodi has some wrestling
37:07here in his back pocket. Maybe he tries
37:09to wrestle Belal Hassan, but Belal
37:11Hassan, in my opinion, good enough
37:12takedown defense, good enough scrambling
37:13ability to stop that. If the fight is on
37:15the feet for any extended period of
37:17time, which Belal Hassan will force,
37:19he's going to crack him, man. He's going
37:20to knock him out. I don't see how Louis
37:22Gerodi can avoid the counters. Maybe he
37:24avoids getting knocked out because it's
37:26flyweight and, you know, maybe he just
37:28gets hurt with some big shots dropped
37:30but doesn't get knocked out. It's
37:31possible. But definitely very confident
37:34in Belal Hassan getting the win here
37:36unless he cannot handle the hype. He's
37:38got half a million followers on on
37:40Instagram and he's at one fight in the
37:41UFC against an unknown guy. It's not
37:43like he stole his hype or anything. It's
37:44not like he's fought Shawn O'Malley in
37:45his first fight and he stole his hype.
37:47The guy's hyped up. Maybe he falters
37:49because he cannot deal with the big
37:51fight week. But outside of that, I think
37:53skill for skill he's yeah, he's he's too
37:55far above Louis Gerodi. Belal Hassan via
37:58knockout is my official prediction. Next
38:00fight on the card is Stephen Thompson
38:01versus Charles Radtke. Stephen Thompson
38:03coming into this fight, 17 wins, nine
38:05losses, one draw. Charles Radtke has a
38:07record of 12 wins and five losses.
38:09Currently now, Stephen Thompson is the
38:10minus 140 favorite with the underdog
38:12price tag on Charles Radtke sitting at
38:14plus 120. This is a pretty unexpected
38:16fight for me. I did not really think
38:18we'd see Charles Radtke versus Stephen
38:19Thompson in 2026. Obviously, Stephen
38:21Thompson 43 now at the end of his
38:24career. I mean, fighting at 43,
38:25especially at the level that he's still
38:27competing at, extremely impressive. So I
38:28just want to give a round of applause
38:30for Stephen Thompson to be able to do
38:32what he has done. He's no longer Wonder
38:33Boy. He's probably not even Wonder Man.
38:35He's Wonder Grandpa. But he's still
38:37kicking ass, man. In his last fight,
38:39very close fight against Gabriel Bonfim.
38:41You're talking about a year ago now, so
38:42he's got, you know, a year older since
38:44then. However, I thought he won that
38:45fight. I thought he won the fight
38:47against Gabriel Bonfim. Maybe I'm biased
38:48to add a +300 or +400. I think it's +300
38:52underdog ticket on him. So maybe I'm
38:53biased. However, I did think he won and
38:56I think the majority of people out there
38:57thought he won. It was a very close
38:58fight. He started to get the better of
39:00him in round two and round three. In
39:01round one, it was a bit of a tough round
39:03for Stephen Thompson. Gabriel Bonfim was
39:05able to take him back, but he did not
39:06submit him, which I think says volumes
39:08because Gabriel Bonfim very dangerous
39:09submission finisher. I rate him as more
39:12dangerous than Charles Oliveira, so that
39:13bodes well for Stephen Thompson coming
39:15into this fight. However, MMA math
39:17doesn't always work, you know? And just
39:18because a better submission grappler
39:20didn't submit you doesn't mean you can't
39:21get submitted. I still rate Charles
39:23Oliveira on the back. I think he's a
39:24good finisher. I did bet on him via
39:25submission two fights ago. He cashed
39:27that and I think he's going to need to
39:28do it again. Not necessarily need to get
39:30the submission, but he's going to need
39:31to get a grappling game done. I don't
39:32think he can win on the feet against
39:34Stephen Thompson outside of landing a
39:35big shot. We did see Buckley land a big
39:37shot a couple of years ago, did knock
39:38Stephen Thompson out at 43 years old. He
39:40could be due for another knockout loss
39:41soon. I'm sure if he keeps on fighting
39:43for another two, three years, he will
39:44get knocked out again. I would also say
39:46that when I was watching tape for the
39:47Gabriel Bonfim fight, Gabriel Bonfim,
39:49Stephen Thompson fight, Bonfim landed a
39:50couple of lead hooks and Charles
39:52Oliveira's best weapon is that hook. So,
39:54you know, he could have some success
39:55with it there. Outside of that, I think
39:56he's going to need to get his wrestling
39:57boots on. I think he's going to need to
39:58throw his single on. I think he's going
40:00to need to grapple the hell out of
40:01Stephen Thompson to win the fight. Can
40:03he do it? It's up in the air for me.
40:04It's a close fight. I have to lean to
40:06Stephen Thompson being able to defend
40:07the takedowns. I think he will be able
40:09to defend them over the course of 15
40:11minutes. The cool thing about Stephen
40:12Thompson's takedown defense is that it
40:14starts in the striking. And what I mean
40:16by that is his range control and his
40:18distance management is so high level
40:20that wrestlers can't even get close
40:22enough to shoot takedowns on him. So his
40:24takedown defense starts with his
40:26striking and his footwork. And I do
40:28think it's going to be tough for Charles
40:29Oliveira to track down Stephen Thompson.
40:31I think he's going to walk forward into
40:32range and he's probably going to get
40:33caught with some big shots. You know,
40:34Stephen Thompson doesn't have the most
40:36power in the world, but he's very slick
40:38and he has damaging strikes, you know,
40:40like pinpoint accurate strikes, even
40:42like his side kicks to the gut. You
40:44don't want to take too many of those.
40:46Once you've took a couple to the ribs
40:47and took a couple one twos of the
40:49fastest striker, you start to slow your
40:51roll a little bit. You start to pressure
40:53a bit less because you don't really, you
40:55know, want to get caught again. Or you
40:57just go balls to the wall and pressure
40:58more and then you got a good chance of
41:00taking him down, but you also get a good
41:02chance of getting caught with a massive
41:03shot. So it's kind of pick your poison
41:05with someone like Stephen Thompson. This
41:06also seems to be Stephen Thompson's
41:08retirement fight. Stephen Thompson had a
41:10big fallout with the UFC back in 2023
41:12when he refused to fight Michelle
41:13Pereira after Pereira missed weight and
41:15after that fight they gave Stephen
41:16Thompson Shavkat Rakhmonov as a thank
41:19you for not taking the Pereira fight.
41:20They then gave him Buckley who was on a
41:22heavy win streak at the time and then
41:23surgeon prospect Gabriel Bonfim who
41:25looks to be fighting for the title. Now
41:27this seems to be his retirement fight
41:29from all I can see. I haven't really
41:30heard too much noise around this one,
41:32but Stephen Thompson is retiring this
41:34weekend. Wonder Boy spoke to my boy
41:36James Lynch on behalf of Home of Fight
41:38and he said that fighting for me now is
41:40just an extracurricular activity. My
41:42life is dedicated to helping the new
41:44generation come up. It's the end of the
41:46Wonder Boy era. So that's why I gave him
41:47a little applause earlier as well. It's
41:49going to be sad to see Wonder Boy gone,
41:51but I want to relay it to the matchup.
41:52Usually retirement fights don't go the
41:54way you want it to go. Now, you know,
41:56last week we had Julian Erosa and his
41:58retirement fight definitely went the way
41:59he wanted it to, but most of the time
42:01they don't end well. But the fact of the
42:03matter is this is the first time that
42:04Stephen Thompson has been a favorite in
42:06an MMA fight in many, many years. So
42:09he's definitely got the skills to win
42:10this one and ultimately I am going to
42:12pick him. I just haven't seen Charles
42:14Radtke compete and win at the level I
42:16would need to to pick him against the
42:18veteran of sport like Stephen Wonder Boy
42:20Thompson. Charles Radtke definitely can
42:23win the fight with his grappling,
42:24wrestling, and jiu-jitsu and he could
42:26even find the finish with a choke.
42:28However, he has not done enough in his
42:30UFC or MMA career and I haven't seen
42:32enough out of him to warrant picking him
42:34to be Stephen Wonder Boy Thompson. So
42:36I'm going to pick Stephen Thompson here.
42:37I think he's going to potentially
42:39outclass Charles Radtke on the feet and
42:41show levels for the last time in his
42:44career. Stephen Thompson via decision is
42:46my official prediction. Next up on the
42:47card we have Drew Dober taking on Chris
42:49Duncan. Drew Dober coming into this
42:50fight 29 wins, 15 losses. Chris Duncan
42:53has a record of 15 wins and three
42:55losses. Currently, they have Chris
42:56Duncan as the minus 165 favorite with
42:58underdog price tag on Drew Dober saying
43:00at plus 140. All right, so this matchup
43:02is absolute fireworks. I think someone's
43:04going down. This is going to be a war,
43:06you know? It's going to be a brawl. I
43:07think both fighters know no other way.
43:09Dober goes in there and tries to go to
43:11war every single fight. I don't think
43:13I'm ever seen a boring Drew Dober fight,
43:15and same thing with Chris Duncan. I
43:16don't think I've ever seen a boring
43:17Chris Duncan fight. Guy's been to
43:19decision just three times over 10 fights
43:21in his UFC career, 70% inside the
43:23distance finish ratio. And one of those
43:26three decisions was literally fight of
43:27the year, one of the best fights I ever
43:29saw, and I saw it live. Boys, you know
43:31who I'm rooting for in here. I have to
43:32say my bias first of all. Chris is a
43:34personal friend of mine. I'm never going
43:36to pick against him. I'm still going to
43:37give my honest raw thoughts about the
43:39matchup. However, I'm not perfect. I
43:41still have biases, and this is one of
43:43them. So I'm just disclaiming it to you
43:44cuz as always, I give you guys as much
43:46information as possible to hopefully
43:48help you profit on MMA, and I do that
43:50every week. And I feel like this is a
43:52piece of the information that you should
43:53know. Look, ultimately, I think Drew
43:55Dober hits very hard, and Chris needs to
43:57minus peas and cues for the first round
43:58or two or three because Drew Dober can
44:00knock you out in round one, two, or
44:02three really. I mean, he doesn't really
44:03tire out. He's got great cardio. He
44:05keeps on pushing, keeps on pressing. I
44:06remember that Jean Silva fight, he just
44:08kept walking him down for the entire
44:09fight, which is kind of crazy because he
44:11was getting beat up bad in that fight.
44:12Yes, Jean Silva moved up in weight
44:13class, but still going up against Jean
44:15Silva at 155, Jean broke both of his
44:17hands apparently in that fight. I don't
44:18know how severe the break was or if
44:20there was fractures or whatnot, but he
44:21broke both of his hands on Drew Dober's
44:23head. Drew Dober has a fire hydrant
44:24head. He's very, very tough to knock
44:26out. Has happened in the past. More
44:28recently, he has been knocked out, but
44:30he's very tough to do that against, and
44:31he's got elite power himself. So Chris
44:33needs to mind himself from the war that
44:36usually gets him. I don't want to see
44:38him get into a war in this fight. Like I
44:39said, he usually does get into a war. I
44:42I don't want to see that. I want to see
44:43more of a Jordan Vušanić performance
44:45where he shoots takedowns here. I think
44:47his wrestling, grappling is extremely
44:49underrated. I think his physicality is
44:52extremely underrated. His balance, his
44:54core strength is extremely underrated
44:56and I think his grappling and his levels
44:57above Drew Dober. I would love to see
44:59Chris Dauk under some of those big
45:00hooks, take Drew Dober down, submit him
45:02on the mat cuz I think he definitely can
45:04do that front choke, something like
45:06that. If the fight stays on the feet,
45:07then it's going to be a swinging contest
45:09and in that type of contest, anybody can
45:11go down because they're just going to be
45:12swinging big shots. It could be like the
45:13Charlie Campbell fight where, you know,
45:15they're just both swinging and maybe
45:16both get hurt cuz they both have big
45:18power. They both could hurt the other
45:19guy. So I'd like to see Chris play it a
45:21little bit smarter in this fight, but at
45:23the end of the day, this guy's a fan
45:24favorite, man. He's going to go out
45:25there and try and put on a war, no
45:26matter who he's fighting. Like when he
45:27fought Mateusz Gamrot, and I was there
45:29live for that, like I said, such a great
45:30fight to watch live, by the way, in the
45:32Apex as well, like it was mad. But in
45:34that fight, he had the fight basically
45:36won, right? But he's got into round
45:37three and he's made a conscious decision
45:40to go out there and put himself in
45:41danger to finish Mateusz Gamrot. He
45:44didn't need to do that. Mateusz was
45:45completely gassed. His face was a
45:47complete mess. He could have went out
45:48there, won the third round like he did
45:50the second and just took home a clean
45:53decision without damaging himself,
45:55getting cuts under both eyes like he
45:56did, but he didn't do that. He made a
45:57conscious decision to say, no, I'm going
46:00to go and finish him and maybe I'll get
46:01finished in the process, but I want to
46:03put on a show for the fans. I want to
46:05get a finish bonus, get a Fight of the
46:07Night bonus, get a Performance bonus for
46:08me and my family and I want to go to war
46:10in this third round when he didn't need
46:12to. So that's the type of mentality he
46:14has. So it kind of lends itself to him
46:16just going in there and having a brawl,
46:17but look, at the end of the day, he's a
46:18good martial artist. He's not just going
46:19to go out there and brawl, but I just I
46:21want to see him go more to the wrestling
46:22and grappling. So yeah, I'm going to
46:23pick Chris Duncan in this fight. I'm
46:25going to pick him. Honestly, it could be
46:26a knockout here cuz Drew Dober's chin,
46:28man, like Chris has heavy, heavy power
46:30in those hands and and Drew Dober's chin
46:32has been looking shaky as of late, but
46:34I'll say submission. I I I'll say that
46:36he implements the game plan that I would
46:37like, which is mixing in the wrestling
46:39and he just runs through Drew Dober on
46:41the mat and shows the level difference
46:43in the grappling and the jiu-jitsu
46:45specifically. So we'll take Chris Duncan
46:46via submission as my official
46:48prediction. Next up on the card, we have
46:49Jim Miller taking on Terence McKinney.
46:51Jim Miller coming into this fight, 39
46:53wins, 19 losses. Terence McKinney, 18
46:56wins and nine
46:58Terence McKinney is the minus 215
46:59favorite in this contest with the under
47:01or price tag on Jim Miller sitting at
47:02plus 180. The return of Terence McKinney
47:05and Jim Miller, I mean these two are
47:06legends. These two are legends in their
47:07own right for different reasons. Jim
47:09Miller, mate, Jim A1 is a legend of the
47:11sport, brother. This guy was like
47:13submitting, knocking people out when I
47:15was in nappies. Y'all [ __ ] call
47:17him diapers, you know?
47:19This guy was doing the damn business
47:20from before most of us were were
47:23walking. And then on the other hand we
47:24got Terence McKinney. Terence McKinney
47:26is a modern day legend. I just went on
47:28his Instagram like in preparation, you
47:29know, for the fight and for the
47:30breakdowns and he's got 200,000
47:33followers on Instagram. Like what is
47:34that? Like my man should have at least a
47:36million followers. This guy is absolute
47:38electric fireworks, a modern day legend
47:40in my opinion. Terence McKinney, he's
47:42going to go out there and he's going to
47:44knock out Jim Miller. I mean no matter
47:45who wins this fight, someone's going to
47:47sleep, someone's getting finished,
47:49whether it's a submission or knockout.
47:50It could be either on either side. Both
47:52of these guys do it all. Obviously if
47:54Terence McKinney doesn't get a finish in
47:56round one, he loses the fight. Can you
47:57believe that this guy has 18 wins and
48:00all 18 of them are via finish and 17,
48:03this is mental, 17 out of the 18
48:06finishes are round one finishes. The
48:08only fight that wasn't a round one
48:09finish was a round three finish that he
48:11got on the regional scene way back in
48:132018. I mean this guy is electric to the
48:15sport of MMA and I kind of feel like he
48:17gets another round one finish here.
48:18McKinney fights are easy to break down.
48:20They're not easy to predict, but they're
48:22easy to break down. And this is the
48:24same. Like I think early Terence
48:25McKinney is going to put some crazy
48:27damage on Jim Miller. And if Jim Miller
48:28survives, he's going to beat and finish
48:30Terence McKinney. And if he doesn't
48:31survive, he's lost via knockout. I mean
48:33it's really as simple as that, boys.
48:35Pick your poison. I'll tell you what I'm
48:36going to do because I'm a sports better,
48:38not an MMA analyst. I'm going to look at
48:40the odds and the odds are telling me
48:42minus 215 for Terence McKinney and I
48:44think that's absolutely insane. Terence
48:45McKinney should win this fight via
48:47knockout in round one. I would line
48:48Terence McKinney a minus 150 favorite in
48:51this contest at maximum, minus 140
48:53maybe. You're telling me that he should
48:54be minus 215? Why? Why should he be
48:57minus 215? Jim Miller hasn't been
48:58knocked out since 2018. Might that
49:00change it? Yes. Am I predicting it to
49:02change it? Yes. Am I going to bet on
49:04Terence McKinney? No. Am I betting on my
49:07prediction? No. Am I betting against my
49:09prediction? Maybe. This is a great place
49:12to say my favorite saying in the world.
49:14Picks slash predictions are not bets. We
49:18bet where there is value. We do
49:20something called plus EV value betting.
49:23Plus EV betting, value betting. Go and
49:25google it. Plus EV
49:28betting. Google that. That is how you
49:31win from betting on sports. That's it.
49:33And when I look at these odds, I can't
49:34agree with them. I don't think Terence
49:36should be a -215. If he wins, he's going
49:39to look -2015
49:41because it's going to be a a knockout in
49:43round one, a brutal knockout and
49:44everyone's going to be like, oh, that
49:45was so easy. It wasn't easy. It just
49:47happened this time. If these guys fight
49:49100 times, Jim Miller breaks him many
49:50times. I'm telling you that now.
49:52Ultimately, my official prediction will
49:54be Terence McKinney knockout round one.
49:55I do think he's going to actually get
49:56it. However, they're giving me plus 180
49:58on Jim Miller. I might have to bet it. I
50:00haven't decided yet. We're over a week
50:01out from the fight by the time I'm
50:03recording this video. I don't know what
50:04I'm going to do in terms of bets. In
50:06terms of predictions, Terence McKinney
50:07via knockout round one is my official
50:09one. Next up on the card we have Dante
50:10Johnson taking on Cesar Almeida. Dante
50:12Johnson coming into this fight 9 and 0
50:14he is an undefeated fighter. Cesar
50:16Almeida comes into this fight seven
50:17wins, three losses. Currently they have
50:19Dante Johnson as the -180 favorite with
50:21the underdog price them on Cesar Almeida
50:23sitting at +153. Yeah, I think this
50:25fight just comes down to whether Dante
50:27Johnson lands the bomb or not because I
50:29personally don't think his wrestling and
50:30grappling is good enough to expose Cesar
50:32Almeida's very very bad wrestling and
50:34grappling game. And the reason I say
50:36that is because when I've seen Dante
50:37Johnson grapple against Cedric Dumars,
50:39against Cody Brundage, to me it didn't
50:41look like he knew what he was doing. To
50:42me it did not look good in those fights
50:44at all in terms of the wrestling and
50:45grappling. So I don't think he'll be
50:48able to grapple Almeida. So it really
50:49comes to a striking fight in my opinion.
50:51Look, can he get a takedown or two? Yes,
50:53but I think for the most part this is a
50:54striking fight. Important to know that
50:56Cesar Almeida comes into this fight on
50:57short notice. It was actually meant to
50:58be Dante Johnson versus Baysangur
51:00Susakayev. Susakayev had to withdraw, so
51:03they've made this match up. It was meant
51:04to be prospect versus prospect to see
51:06who the best prospect is, but now
51:07they're making it prospect versus old,
51:10aging Not really a veteran, cuz he's
51:12only got 10 fights, but an old aging
51:14guy, put it that way. I like Cezar
51:16Almeida. Unfortunately, in his last
51:17fight, he got iced by Damian Pinas.
51:19Pinas is one of the heaviest hitters in
51:21the division, probably hits harder than
51:22Dante Johnson, definitely hits harder
51:24than Dante Johnson. Even though Dante
51:25Johnson hits so hard, Pinas hits even
51:27harder. And Cezar Almeida was looking
51:29very good in that fight until he got
51:30caught with a big shot. Cezar Almeida
51:31seemed to be extremely durable in his
51:33career, but at the end of the day, man,
51:35he got wobbled hard by Razak Al-Hassan,
51:37and now he's been knocked out by Damian
51:38Pinas. It's not going to surprise me if
51:40Dante Johnson goes out there and KOs
51:41him. Let's be real, lads, like it's not
51:43going to surprise me. So it's really
51:44pick your poison in here. It's like, am
51:46I going to pick Dante Johnson via KO?
51:48That's kind of the easy way out. Or am I
51:49going to pick Cezar Almeida? Cuz Cezar
51:50Almeida is still technically the better
51:52striker, right? He's definitely the
51:53better striker. He's got more UFC
51:54experience, higher level experience in
51:56the UFC. He's got better wins. I mean,
51:58his win against Lucas Fernando and Razak
52:00Al-Hassan is better than Dante Johnson's
52:02win against Eric Anders and
52:04Cody Brundage, by far. And I think if
52:06the fight is on the feet for 15 minutes,
52:07I think Cezar Almeida beats him up or
52:09probably knocks him out cuz technically
52:11he is way better. But Cezar probably has
52:13chin issues at this point in his career.
52:14But like, can we guarantee he has chin
52:16issues, boys? Like, man, I I want to
52:18know your opinion here. Like, let me
52:20know because I'll I'll will I'll will
52:22send it on plus 180 Cezar Almeida right
52:25now if you tell me that he doesn't have
52:27chin issues. But it's just hard to know.
52:29Like, can we say he has chin issues cuz
52:30he got knocked out by Damian Pinas, the
52:33Francis Ngannou of the middleweight
52:34division, the heaviest here in MMA
52:36history after Francis Ngannou? I'm ready
52:39to damn near say that now. This guy
52:41looks like he's got insane power. So we
52:44kind of almost have to ignore that. But
52:46then we don't ignore the Razak Al-Hassan
52:48wobble. Now, he won that fight via
52:50knockout, but he got wobbled hard in
52:51that fight. He also got dropped in the
52:53Kopylov fight before that. So like, it's
52:55been going on for a couple of years now
52:57where his chin might not be the best.
52:59And on top of that, guy's 38 years old.
53:01It's not looking good. It's not looking
53:02good. However, I might have to pick
53:04Cezar Almeida at +180 man. It's a tough
53:06one. Like, I just think he's This is dog
53:08or pass on the money line. I don't think
53:09he can bet Donte Johnson, but
53:11ultimately, Donte Johnson via KO just
53:12seems like a little bit too obvious to
53:15me. It seems too obvious. I think I'm
53:17going to pick Caesar Amadeu, but [ __ ] I
53:19don't know. I don't know whether I'll
53:20bet this, boys, because I have a bad
53:22feeling he gets knocked out. But I can't
53:24in good conscience pick a -210 favorite
53:27in this contest like Donte Johnson. I'm
53:28going to say Caesar Amadeu wins this
53:30five-year knockout and gets a massive
53:31underdog win, but this is not a
53:32confident prediction. Yeah, I mean, you
53:35you get my thoughts based on my
53:36prediction. Next fight I'm going to
53:37Melquizael Costa taking on Jared Gordon.
53:39Costa comes into this fight 26 wins,
53:41eight losses. Jared Gordon 21 wins and
53:44nine losses. Currently have Currently
53:45have Melquizael Costa as a massive -360
53:48favorite with underdog price tag of
53:50Jared Gordon sitting at +291. Yes, so
53:52first of all, this fight takes place in
53:53a big cage, which definitely suits
53:56Melquizael Costa more than Jared Gordon.
53:57Jared Gordon a pressure, boxer, brawler
54:00type fighter where he likes to crowd
54:02distance, crowd the space, and fight in
54:04a phone booth almost. Melquizael Costa
54:06completely different. He's staying on
54:07the outside, he's dancing, he's throwing
54:09kicks. So the big cage will suit him. We
54:12also should note that Melquizael Costa
54:14is fighting at 155 here. He said that
54:16he's permanently moved up to 155 cuz the
54:18145 cut were brutal on him. So, you
54:20know, I expect him to have a
54:21reinvigorated performance here. I'm not
54:23sure that affected his fight with
54:24Barnatt at all. He says it did. It
54:26seemed to me he just lost on class
54:28there. You know, Arnold Allen was just a
54:29better striker and better grappler
54:31overall, and Melquizael Costa did not
54:32have the gas to keep up with someone
54:34like Arnold and ultimately just ended up
54:35on bottom in the later rounds to lose
54:37that fight very clearly. Five rounds to
54:39none in my opinion. I got to pick Costa
54:41in this fight. I think the big cage
54:42suits him like I said. I think his
54:43kicking game is going to really trouble
54:45Jared Gordon and Jared Gordon's going to
54:47need to pressure, right, and come into
54:48range. That's when the the flying knees
54:50are there. That's when the big elbows
54:52are there. That's when the trips and
54:53foot sweeps are there, which is actually
54:55a little bit underrated now. So yeah,
54:57I'm siding with Melquizael Costa here. I
54:58also though think the odds are kind of
55:00crazy. I mean, there is a world in which
55:02Jared Gordon makes this fight close and
55:04if he can make it gritty and grimy, I
55:06don't think Costa really would like to
55:08be in that type of fight. You know, he
55:09can compete in that fight, but Jared
55:11Gordon can definitely win that type of
55:13fight. I think back to the Julian Arosa
55:14versus Costa fight. It was a very close
55:16fight over three rounds. Arosa made it
55:17dirty, made it gritty, and so he made
55:19the minutes very, very close. He got hit
55:21with a couple of big shots like head
55:22kicks and stuff, and that kind of, you
55:24know, swung the rounds, but if that same
55:25type of fight happens here, Costa's not
55:27looking minus 400 range, put it that
55:29way. Ultimately, boys, I'll pick
55:31Mackenzie Dern Costa, and I'll pick her
55:32to win a decision. Next up is basically
55:34Chey Son taking on Deanna Bennett. Chey
55:36Son comes into this fight, 10 wins, six
55:38losses. Bennett comes into this fight,
55:39eight wins, no losses. She is an
55:41undefeated fighter. Currently at Bennett
55:43at a minus 210 favorite with the
55:44underdog price to go Mackenzie Chey Son
55:46seeing at plus 177. Yeah, so this is a
55:48weird, strange fight to break down. Like
55:50on the one hand, I feel like Mackenzie
55:52Chey Son has all the skills to be
55:54someone like Deanna Bennett, has all the
55:56experience to be someone like Deanna
55:58Bennett, can probably keep the fight on
56:00the feet with a physicality being quite
56:02high level, a takedown wrestling game
56:05being more polished than Bennett,
56:07and then she's a better striker, you
56:08know, with better durability and heavier
56:10hands. However, on the other hand, she
56:12has very bad fight IQ, Mackenzie Chey
56:14Son. And looking at her last three
56:16fights, the way or her last three
56:17losses, the way she lost them was very
56:19poor in my opinion and raised some
56:21serious questions about her fight IQ.
56:24Basically her decision making, it's
56:25really just a decision making. I can't
56:27say I can't say skill wise she was like
56:29so underskilled or made some she just
56:31nowhere near the level of her opponent
56:33skill wise. She's basically on the same
56:34level as all of those girls really.
56:36Ailin Perez, Yana Santos, Ketlen Vieira,
56:37like it's just similar level, man,
56:39similar level. It's not some crazy
56:40difference, right? It's just the fight
56:41IQ was really bad. She got taken down in
56:43loads of those fights or she ended up on
56:44bottom in loads of those fights, but how
56:46did they come? They come from sacrifice
56:48throws, at least most of them, right? So
56:49she just makes very, very bad decisions
56:51in the octagon. She shoots takedowns on
56:54girls who are stronger than her, who
56:56reverse her. Then once they reverse her,
56:58she still shoots more takedowns on them
57:00and gets reversed again, and then it
57:01ends up on bottom. I mean, the girls
57:03don't even have to take her down. She
57:04tries to take them down and they just
57:05reverse it. And she's been doing this
57:06for years. It's not smart yet, and it's
57:08not worked out for her. I could easily
57:10see her shooting the takedown when she
57:12doesn't need to against Bea Malequieta
57:14and just getting submitted. And that's
57:15kind of what Melissa Mullins did in her
57:17last fight. I mean, Bea Malequieta's
57:18last fight against Melissa Mullins, she
57:20got exposed in that fight, right?
57:21Because before that, she was fighting
57:23very low-level girls. She was running
57:24through them. She looked good. Like, we
57:26didn't know anything about what kink she
57:28has in her armor. We didn't know
57:29anything, right? Melissa Mullins hurt
57:31her badly. Could have finished her,
57:33right? Dropped her hard. So her chin's a
57:35bit [ __ ] I mean, Melissa don't hit that
57:36hard I don't think. Her chin potentially
57:38a bit shaky. Her striking defense is
57:39bad. Her striking offense is pretty bad
57:41as well. So it's a bad look, you know?
57:43She got exposed in that fight. Melissa
57:45Mullins followed her to the ground and
57:46got submitted shortly after. I could
57:47easily see the same thing happening
57:49here. Macy Chaisson hurts her or takes
57:50her down and just gets submitted after.
57:52Macy has the skills to win the fight,
57:54but can I trust her? I don't think I can
57:56trust her. This is actually another
57:57fight where I'm going to pick the
57:59favorite. Maybe I'm just taking an easy
58:01way out. However, I feel like the value
58:03is on Macy Chaisson the underdog. And I
58:05might even bet Chaisson via knockout or
58:08Chaisson inside the distance. I might
58:09actually do that because I mean, Bea got
58:12exposed in her last fight and I don't
58:13think she's champ material. And at some
58:15point, I think she gets finished pretty
58:16badly. And Macy has enough experience to
58:18potentially do it. And she's a finisher
58:20herself to some degree. So it might be
58:22the spot to bet Macy here, but it's a
58:23tough click knowing that her all of her
58:25losses in the recent years have come
58:28from grappling girls who are stronger
58:30than her, who are better at jiu-jitsu
58:32than her, who can stay on top of her.
58:34That's exactly what Bea is. So it's just
58:36a tough click based on that. Maybe she
58:38has a turning point where she learns.
58:40And I think if she does and she finds
58:41the right game plan, she can win this
58:43fight fairly easily. But that's not her
58:45and it's never been her. So we can't
58:46trust that. So it's a tough one for me,
58:47boys. I'll pick Bea Malequieta via
58:49submission, via Macy Chaisson being
58:51dumb, you know, or just getting taken
58:53down. I mean, it's a fight at the end of
58:54the day. If Macy does get taken down,
58:56which can happen, she could get
58:57submitted, right? So I'll pick her based
58:59on just the high-level jiu-jitsu
59:01experience and also Macy Chaisson's poor
59:03fight IQ, but we're going to see the
59:04odds. We're going to see what they give
59:05me for Macy Chaisson inside the
59:07distance. It'll be a massive plus
59:08number, or maybe I just parlay the fight
59:10doesn't go to decision. I don't know. As
59:12you can my mind's in many places.
59:13Official prediction, BM of squiter via
59:15submission. Next up on the card, we have
59:17Samuel Sanchez versus Evan Elder. Evan
59:19Elder coming into this fight, 1 wins, 2
59:20losses. Samuel Sanchez has a record of
59:2211 wins and 1 loss. Currently, they have
59:24this fight line extremely closely. In
59:26fact, the closest line fight in the
59:27entire fight card. Evan Elder is the
59:29slight -120 favorite with the underdog
59:31price tag on Samuel Sanchez seeing that
59:33+103. All right, so first things first
59:35on this one, boys. I have some more
59:37bias, right? Evan is another personal
59:39friend of mine and I'm always going to
59:41pick Evan. I'm always going to root for
59:43him when he fights. So yeah, no surprise
59:45I'm backing Evan in this contest, but
59:46honestly, boys, I think that he's just
59:48too much of a martial artist to lose
59:50this fight. I actually favor him a
59:52decent amount. It just seems too much
59:54for Samuel Sanchez to overcome at this
59:56point in time. Look, Samuel has power,
59:58right? And Evan needs to be cautious of
59:59that power. He has good boxing. He
1:00:01punches in combination, especially when
1:00:03his opponent shells up or backs away,
1:00:05you know, he gets confidence and he he
1:00:06he throws those nice boxing combinations
1:00:08with power. But man, Evan is a serious
1:00:11martial artist. I've got to be there
1:00:12with him right next to him in his
1:00:14training sessions and I rate him highly
1:00:16as a martial artist. He's a very
1:00:17tactical fighter and outside of the
1:00:19octagon, he's a very philosophical guy.
1:00:21Reads a lot, studies a lot, studies the
1:00:24mind. And I think you see that in his
1:00:26fights, man. I mean, every time he goes
1:00:27into the fight, he has high fight IQ,
1:00:29extremely high fight IQ. He knows when
1:00:32to shoot takedowns. He knows when to
1:00:33keep it on the feet. He knows when to
1:00:35kind of stand his ground and brawl. He
1:00:36knows when to pressure. He knows when to
1:00:38back away. His cardio is always heavy,
1:00:40heavy on point. I think he's going to
1:00:41put somewhat of a vet lesson on Samuel
1:00:43Sanchez unless he gets knocked out,
1:00:45unless he gets caught. A worry for Evan
1:00:47is that he's coming back from an injury.
1:00:48So he's been out for over a year now. We
1:00:50were supposed to fight Tom Nolen, which
1:00:51would have been a crazy fight, but he
1:00:53had to pull out of that fight because he
1:00:54tore the ligaments in his ankle. I was
1:00:56actually there live when he had that
1:00:58injury. He was training at the UFC PI
1:01:00with Joe Schilling and Charlie Campbell.
1:01:02I'm sure he doesn't mind me talking
1:01:03about this because Joe Schilling is
1:01:05always in his corner. He know everyone
1:01:07knows him and Charlie Campbell are
1:01:08training partners. They post videos all
1:01:10the time. So they were sparring and he
1:01:12injured his ankle. It kind of just
1:01:14exploded. It was was a injury kind of
1:01:16out of nowhere. At least that's what it
1:01:17seemed to be. And it was a bad injury.
1:01:19He was on crutches for a long time. And
1:01:21overall, Evan Elder's career has kind of
1:01:23been marred by injuries, which is quite
1:01:25annoying cuz, you know, he's 29 years
1:01:27old now. He's in his prime, so he can
1:01:29still go now. So I hope he has a clean
1:01:31run with no injuries. I think this guy
1:01:32could have done some damage in the UFC.
1:01:34He kind of reminds me of the fact you're
1:01:36a wood type fighter in that. It's a
1:01:37little bit underrated, a little bit
1:01:38overlooked, but he beats high level
1:01:40fighters consistently. He's lined an
1:01:43underdog a lot. He wins a lot. Kind of
1:01:45reminds me of that style fighter where
1:01:46he's a little bit underrated, goes a
1:01:47little bit under the radar, but he has
1:01:48high high level skill set. So yeah, I'm
1:01:51I'm picking Evan Elder for the win here.
1:01:53Like I said, he's got to avoid the
1:01:54punches, the the big power of Sam Chavez
1:01:56by side of that. I think he can show his
1:01:58wrestling here, which he doesn't show
1:01:59too often. I think he he can show his
1:02:01footwork here. I'll take Evan Elder for
1:02:02the decision win. And that is it, lads.
1:02:04I am gassed up for this pay-per-view.
1:02:06Hopefully we can continue this
1:02:07generational run that we have been on.
1:02:09Hopefully we can continue to ascend to
1:02:11the heights that we're aiming for for
1:02:122026. I want to close 2026 off with some
1:02:15massive profit, boys. And we are well on
1:02:17our way to being there. So good luck to
1:02:19you and I'll see you in the next video.

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