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Trump : Quel 1er bilan géopolitique ? — Transcript

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  1. 0:17A geopolitical assessment for Trump?
  2. 0:20With Donald Trump now a year into his second term,
  3. 0:24this inquiry is both unavoidable and essential.
  4. 0:29Why unavoidable?
  5. 0:30Because US initiatives are multiplying in variety and
  6. 0:34complexity, necessitating renewed scrutiny.
  7. 0:36This assessment is vital to distinguish the Trump administration’s
  8. 0:41underlying strategy and structural objectives.
  9. 0:45Ultimately, it enables us to understand the specific geopolitical influences
  10. 0:49this action exerts on the world.
  11. 0:53Fabrice Ravel, hello.
  12. 0:54Hello, Olivier. Hello everyone.
  13. 0:57I misspoke.
  14. 0:58I said ‘this action’, not ‘these actions’; and there have been countless actions
  15. 1:02since the beginning of Trump's mandate.
  16. 1:05That's the least we can say.
  17. 1:07I will take this a step further and outline the primary developments.
  18. 1:13It will become evident that there has been
  19. 1:18a significant flurry of activity from the
  20. 1:21Trump administration between 20 January 2025
  21. 1:27and January 2026, and he has only been in
  22. 1:33office since he was sworn in on 20 January 2025.
  23. 1:36Indeed, I have identified nine key events to report,
  24. 1:41which I will summarise briefly so we can be in a better position
  25. 1:48to respond to the question regarding an initial assessment.
  26. 1:53However, we must first establish a clear record of the specific actions taken.
  27. 1:56To begin with, both chronologically and in terms of
  28. 2:00importance for Trump, we had a re-engagement
  29. 2:04with Vladimir Putin and Russian diplomacy.
  30. 2:08This has become a common thread.
  31. 2:12We could even refine that by describing it as a recurrent theme
  32. 2:15throughout the year—playing out almost like a serialised drama or soap opera—
  33. 2:22marked by a relentless cycle of encounters,
  34. 2:27break-ups or ruptures, and then the inevitable
  35. 2:31comebacks.
  36. 2:34In the wake of those initial overtures, Donald Trump used
  37. 2:39a huge chart in early April 2025 to delineate what he characterised as a landscape
  38. 2:44of global trade imbalances and excessive foreign customs duties foreign
  39. 2:50customs duties that left the USA on the losing side of the global ledger.
  40. 2:55Six days later, Donald Trump granted a 90-day moratorium.
  41. 2:59By August, however, these duties were formally imposed on several countries,
  42. 3:03while the moratorium was extended for others.
  43. 3:05This sequence demonstrates a dynamic, proactive approach that
  44. 3:11necessitates careful interpretation of
  45. 3:13subsequent developments.
  46. 3:15Trump would later use his social media platform
  47. 3:20on 10 May 2025 to claim a pivotal role in brokering a ceasefire
  48. 3:26between India and Pakistan.
  49. 3:27This long-standing bilateral tension was a subject
  50. 3:32we previously examined, specifically regarding whether the crisis
  51. 3:35would escalate into open conflict or subside.
  52. 3:39Subsequently, on the night of 21 June 2025, several Iranian nuclear facilities
  53. 3:45were targeted and bombed by B-2 stealth bombers.
  54. 3:50That was already number four which brings us to
  55. 3:52the fifth major intervention: the facilitated peace process between Rwanda and
  56. 3:57the Democratic Republic of Congo.
  57. 4:00An initial treaty was signed in late June, which was subsequently formalised and
  58. 4:05extended by the Washington Agreements of 5 December, drawn up to seek
  59. 4:09long-term diplomatic continuity.
  60. 4:12In late September 2025, the Gaza Strip Treaty—also known as
  61. 4:17the Trump Plan— was reportedly signed.
  62. 4:22While this highlights a series of apparent peace initiatives,
  63. 4:26it is significant that on 20 December 2025,
  64. 4:29Trump ordered US military strikes on Islamic State bases
  65. 4:34in Syria. This was followed up by the launch
  66. 4:40on Christmas Day (25 December) of twelve Tomahawk missiles
  67. 4:43targeting Islamic State bases in north-western Nigeria.
  68. 4:48Finally, on 3 January 2026, the Venezuelan president was captured.
  69. 4:56Another common thread is Trump’s interest in
  70. 5:01Greenland, evinced through Donald Trump Jr's visit in January 2025 before
  71. 5:08his father’s inauguration.
  72. 5:10We can see a persistent demand, if not direct pressure—the audience may
  73. 5:15choose the term they find most appropriate—
  74. 5:18exerted on both Canada and Greenland.
  75. 5:22We can clearly see a sort of frenzy that requires
  76. 5:24careful interpretation, because we’re looking at multifaceted actions
  77. 5:29involving multiple actors spanning different global regions.
  78. 5:33The scope of these actions encompasses virtually every continent. Moreover,
  79. 5:37a strategic oscillation is evident between diplomatic attempts to
  80. 5:43broker peace and overt military operations seeking
  81. 5:46decisive victory through armed conflict or war.
  82. 5:50This is where I think we would need interpretation to
  83. 5:57accurately evaluate these actions.
  84. 6:00Yes, since the sheer volume and geographical diversity of interventions
  85. 6:04—coupled with their varying modalities—make it difficult
  86. 6:07to discern any coherence.
  87. 6:09To gain clarity, specific analytical criteria should be applied.
  88. 6:13I suggest a first step entailing an examination of the tangible
  89. 6:17results of these American initiatives.
  90. 6:19And then, perhaps, a second step to link these actions to the objectives
  91. 6:24set out by the Trump administration.
  92. 6:26Let’s thus begin with the results.
  93. 6:27We should first seek to objectively assess what the results of
  94. 6:33the actions taken might be.
  95. 6:36From a methodological perspective, we should maintain a rather natural,
  96. 6:40yet essential distinction.
  97. 6:43Yet how can we assess these short- and long-term results?
  98. 6:48As we shall see, diplomatically and militarily,
  99. 6:52our assessment must
  100. 6:55be nuanced according to the timeframe, particularly when examining results from
  101. 7:03a short-term or a long-term perspective.
  102. 7:06Beginning with the short-term results,
  103. 7:10the immediate impression is that —I’ll insist on this—we can
  104. 7:15objectively point to the sentiment of multiple victories on many fronts.
  105. 7:20First, diplomatically; since we can conclude that
  106. 7:24the Trump administration endeavoured to secure, if not
  107. 7:29peace, at least a ceasefire and end to hostilities
  108. 7:33in three pivotal geopolitical theatres, namely the
  109. 7:36India-Pakistan conflict, the dispute
  110. 7:39between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo, and then the
  111. 7:43Middle East, following the implementation of
  112. 7:47a peace plan for the Gaza Strip.
  113. 7:49On the military front, the successes
  114. 7:54were equally substantial.
  115. 7:56These operations can be categorised by their
  116. 8:00increasing operational complexity.
  117. 8:07The missile strikes conducted in Nigeria were undoubtedly effective;
  118. 8:14however, the air campaigns in Syria and
  119. 8:18the sophisticated strikes against Iranian nuclear infrastructure
  120. 8:22represent a higher echelon of coordination.
  121. 8:26The latter, in particular, demonstrated precise coordination between
  122. 8:30bombers and tactical air forces.
  123. 8:32Finally, if one focuses strictly on the operational dimensions of
  124. 8:38the recent intervention in Venezuela, it is clear that
  125. 8:42we are observing a successful joint military engagement.
  126. 8:45This required a seamless integration of aerial strikes,
  127. 8:50the tactical deployment of ground troops—which is,
  128. 8:54after all, a wholly different undertaking—
  129. 8:56and a capacity for the projection and withdrawal of supporting naval forces.
  130. 9:01From that vantage point, it was clearly successful.
  131. 9:04However, if we examine these events from a longer-term perspective,
  132. 9:11we can legitimately question the results that have been achieved.
  133. 9:19I must also point out that shifting from the short term to the long term is,
  134. 9:24ultimately, a shift from the tactical to the strategic dimension.
  135. 9:29This point warrants elaboration, as it necessitates a reassessment
  136. 9:33of the apparent initial impact of
  137. 9:37these actions.
  138. 9:38We will inevitably encounter a pendulum swing, as
  139. 9:44both diplomatic and military consequences require
  140. 9:48a longer horizon to fully appreciate the
  141. 9:53scope of these actions.
  142. 9:55Firstly, from a diplomatic viewpoint,
  143. 9:57it must be observed that while the aforementioned events
  144. 10:02include ceasefires and truces, fundamental geopolitical tensions remain
  145. 10:06unresolved.
  146. 10:07The long-standing rivalry between India and Pakistan
  147. 10:14remains at an impasse.
  148. 10:16We might add that with regard to Rwanda and
  149. 10:21the Democratic Republic of Congo, it took exhaustive American diplomatic
  150. 10:24pressure to get the Washington agreements signed on 5 December, and they faced
  151. 10:31multiple delays because the fighting had not really stopped.
  152. 10:36Moreover, fighting between Rwanda and the DRC
  153. 10:39has not only persisted but has seemingly intensified
  154. 10:42since the signing.
  155. 10:44We may thus get the impression that we’re sadly continuing in the same vein as all the
  156. 10:50regional peace deals that had failed previously.
  157. 10:53As for the situation in the Middle East, while an initial phase was clearly signed
  158. 10:58on 9 October in Egypt between Israel and several Palestinian authorities, we remain
  159. 11:03a long way from a definitive peace. Tensions remain
  160. 11:07critically high.
  161. 11:09Even at this stage, we must be cautious; militarily,
  162. 11:12the current results may represent temporary tactical successes,
  163. 11:15but they have failed to resolve
  164. 11:19the underlying structural issues.
  165. 11:24I haven’t even delved into the sporadic strikes mentioned in Syria or Nigeria.
  166. 11:31However, I would like to emphasise what happened in Iran, since we did record
  167. 11:36a session earlier on Iran addressing whether
  168. 11:40air power would be enough to secure victory.
  169. 11:45If you recall, Olivier, we emphasised that it was not about securing victory, rather
  170. 11:49it concerned the ability to buy time and delay Iran's research into or
  171. 11:57acquisition of nuclear weapons.
  172. 11:59That matter needed to be completely nuanced.
  173. 12:03I think two additional points should also be added.
  174. 12:07Firstly, if we consider all the measures
  175. 12:12taken on customs agreements or customs tariffs,
  176. 12:15it is important to note that the effects of such measures can only be
  177. 12:19assessed over a much longer period of time.
  178. 12:22While we are sure to unpack this further in some future RDVG session,
  179. 12:25it is worth noting a shift in relations
  180. 12:30with China; specifically, since after meeting
  181. 12:33Xi Jinping, Donald Trump has substantially walked back
  182. 12:38the scale of the customs duties
  183. 12:43he had originally proposed.
  184. 12:45This observation carries even more weight when we acknowledge that
  185. 12:48China was the specific target of these measures.
  186. 12:51It is clear, however, that the initial expectations may not
  187. 12:55yield results as substantive as we might have
  188. 13:00first assumed.
  189. 13:01I’ll round off our analysis and return to
  190. 13:06the final item on our initial list by suggesting that
  191. 13:12if there is one area where the situation remains notably static, it’s
  192. 13:17the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia.
  193. 13:20Ultimately, a clear assessment here may be a complex
  194. 13:24challenge. To maintain an objective perspective on these results, we may need to
  195. 13:29look toward different methodological lenses to fully understand
  196. 13:34the current landscape.
  197. 13:35Perhaps, to put these results into proper perspective, we should pivot our analysis
  198. 13:41towards the administration's own stated goals: what was Donald Trump
  199. 13:45seeking to achieve?
  200. 13:47There are three key elements to consider, since the
  201. 13:50outcomes of these policies acquire deeper meaning when viewed through
  202. 13:56the lens of the original goals sought by
  203. 14:00Trump and his administration.
  204. 14:01What are these three elements?
  205. 14:03We can start with JD Vance's speech at the Munich
  206. 14:09Security Conference on 14 February 2025.
  207. 14:14Then there is a particularly important document
  208. 14:16finalised in November 2025 and published on 5 December 2025.
  209. 14:22Which document?
  210. 14:24This document, which outlines Washington’s National Security Strategy, is of
  211. 14:28clear and significant importance. While we will return to
  212. 14:31its specifics later, it is worth noting
  213. 14:33that several pages comprehensively define these goals.
  214. 14:37There is a third element which aligns with this: a development from 8 December 2025.
  215. 14:42It could serve as a live commentary for those who may have overlooked the original
  216. 14:48document: I’m talking about a special session of the Politico programme
  217. 14:53known as "The Conversation”, during which
  218. 14:57a journalist interviewed Donald Trump
  219. 15:02for over forty minutes.
  220. 15:05Of these three elements, the document on strategic analysis is our
  221. 15:09primary interest. We will be placing this text at the forefront of our discussion, since
  222. 15:15it contains a range of aspects that will very quickly
  223. 15:19clarify the broader trajectory.
  224. 15:22So let’s dive right into this document, shall we?
  225. 15:27When examining the regional breakdown, the
  226. 15:30Western Hemisphere emerges as the first major area of concern, as it is
  227. 15:33highlighted over 4 full pages.
  228. 15:35We must consider what the Western Hemisphere actually
  229. 15:40encompasses and implies within these pages.
  230. 15:44As you’ll notice, the Western Hemisphere
  231. 15:47is largely Latin America.
  232. 15:49It is significant to observe that within the periodic
  233. 15:54framework of the US National Security Strategy, this edition marks
  234. 16:00the first time Latin America has been
  235. 16:03accorded such high strategic priority.
  236. 16:05That is something definitely worth highlighting.
  237. 16:08The second region is Asia, but more specifically, Asia-Pacific, which receives
  238. 16:13about four pages of attention.
  239. 16:18Predictably, the document maintains strategic continuity by
  240. 16:23designating China as a systemic competitor; and also outlines
  241. 16:31a roll-back policy that relies heavily on
  242. 16:36integrated alliances such as the Quad and AUKUS.
  243. 16:41We covered these alliances in a previous session of RDVG.
  244. 16:47The third region addressed is Europe, a section
  245. 16:54characterised by a certain strategic ambivalence;
  246. 17:01while Washington affirms the
  247. 17:06region’s importance, it simultaneously insists that
  248. 17:14European partners must assume
  249. 17:21a greater share of the collective defence burden.
  250. 17:25Significantly, Russia is situated within this European context on page 25, framing
  251. 17:31the security imperative for the continent.
  252. 17:35Russia is denied a specific regional status, portrayed instead
  253. 17:39as a weakened actor whose primary role
  254. 17:42in US diplomacy is to catalyse
  255. 17:48a more self-sufficient Europe, capable of dealing
  256. 17:54with Russia, and thus managing its own risks and major dichotomies. This approach
  257. 18:00aims to insulate American assets from continental risks, ensuring that
  258. 18:05focus remains fixed on the systemic rivalry with China.
  259. 18:10I think that's very important.
  260. 18:12We can now clearly how the document’s regional sequencing
  261. 18:15illustrates the strategic shift we are currently examining.
  262. 18:20The Near and Middle East occupy only a marginal fourth-place
  263. 18:25position over two pages, while Africa is only cited in
  264. 18:303 paragraphs on the final page. Crucially, the policy
  265. 18:34regarding Africa has pivoted from development and
  266. 18:39liberal reform to the targeted
  267. 18:43investment in —and I quote—
  268. 18:47“Africa’s tremendous natural resources”.
  269. 18:51We can thus sense a number of major trends
  270. 18:57coming to light, which we may be able to perceive better
  271. 19:03if we try to synthesise them in a global geostrategic framework.
  272. 19:08The logic being applied here is quite clear,
  273. 19:10but can we discern an underlying philosophy behind
  274. 19:14Trump and his administration?
  275. 19:15Certainly. A cohesive philosophy emerges and becomes apparent
  276. 19:21when we consider two specific references
  277. 19:30that are also highlighted in the document mentioned earlier.
  278. 19:35What do these references entail?
  279. 19:37The first is clearly the Monroe Doctrine.
  280. 19:40It is analytically significant to revisit a speech given by the 5th US President, James
  281. 19:45Monroe, on 2 December 1823
  282. 19:49We must exercise caution here, as there is a frequent tendency to caricature it
  283. 19:54or reduce it to isolationism.
  284. 19:56That represents only one facet of the policy.
  285. 20:00From a different perspective, we can see the implementation of the phrase
  286. 20:06America for the Americans. Properly interpreted, it envisions
  287. 20:10the American continent as a whole, with the United States of North America as the only
  288. 20:19power entitled to exercise legitimate and natural hegemony.
  289. 20:26What's more—and this is clearly articulated in the document—
  290. 20:30the United States now denies
  291. 20:32any other power the opportunity to exert influence
  292. 20:37within this hemisphere.
  293. 20:39Should they do so, the US would be compelled to intervene.
  294. 20:42This point bears significant consequences.
  295. 20:44Indeed, the text clarifies that Donald Trump is implementing this doctrine,
  296. 20:50which is termed the Trump corollary to the Monroe Doctrine.
  297. 20:54There is clearly a return to the strategic pursuit
  298. 21:00of a privileged sphere of influence.
  299. 21:03Some geopolitical experts seem to dispute this logic. I would
  300. 21:09invite them to reread the document.
  301. 21:10Again, we should read the documents.
  302. 21:12It is clear that the United States is asserting
  303. 21:14a distinct logic of influence.
  304. 21:17As we conclude our session, we shouldn’t forget to point out
  305. 21:20that this will inevitably have geopolitical consequences,
  306. 21:24more broadly, on the rest of the world.
  307. 21:26That wraps up the first reference,
  308. 21:27which objectively brings us to a second reference: Ronald Reagan.
  309. 21:34Ronald Reagan's approach is defined by the maxim: ‘Peace through
  310. 21:39strength’, a hallmark of Ronald Reagan.
  311. 21:41When we consider his first term (1980–1984) and, subsequently,
  312. 21:46again during his second term (1985–1988), there was a considerable increase
  313. 21:52in the American military budget. He embarked on an arms race with the
  314. 21:57specific intent of significantly slowing down Soviet
  315. 22:01production and compelling them to negotiate, thereby achieving
  316. 22:06peace through strength.
  317. 22:08I think it is essential to remember a third
  318. 22:12US president, who is perhaps less prominently featured in the document.
  319. 22:17He is not necessarily cited as often as
  320. 22:21the first two by Donald Trump himself, and many observers tend to
  321. 22:26forget him. Yet I believe it is essential to recall
  322. 22:29him in the context of our discussion.
  323. 22:31I’m talking about US President Theodore Roosevelt, known for his
  324. 22:35Big Stick theory.
  325. 22:37It is worth remembering that Theodore Roosevelt oversaw
  326. 22:43a pivotal shift from the end of the 19th century into the beginning
  327. 22:48of the 20th. His idea was essentially:
  328. 22:52If I’m looking to achieve an international goal,
  329. 22:56I show up with a big stick.
  330. 22:58This is the famous Big Stick theory, which is applied with even greater emphasis
  331. 23:03when talking with allies.
  332. 23:04I think this is an interesting point to highlight.
  333. 23:09To advance our analysis, I believe we must consider
  334. 23:16three conceptual references, keeping three analyses in mind.
  335. 23:23I believe that they will allow us
  336. 23:27to definitively interpret the US administration's
  337. 23:32current objectives. This will enable a more nuanced appreciation of
  338. 23:35the outcomes.
  339. 23:37Primarily, if we refer to Emmanuel Todd’s After
  340. 23:43the Empire, we can discern
  341. 23:47the logic of the Delian League at play. In After the Empire,
  342. 23:51we see a comparison between Athens and the United States of America.
  343. 23:56We can clearly see a power asserting its supremacy and hegemony first and
  344. 24:03foremost over its allies, where it is the allies who must pay for their security.
  345. 24:10That’s the Delian League.
  346. 24:11Contributions were made to the treasury deposited
  347. 24:14at Delos to build up the Athenian fleet and military power; in return,
  348. 24:20Athens provided security through its fleet and army.
  349. 24:25It is clear that this was Emmanuel Todd’s central thesis,
  350. 24:29evoking a specific image of the world as viewed by Trump
  351. 24:34and NATO officials who argue that European contributions to the collective
  352. 24:40budget—to the NATO budget— are inadequate.
  353. 24:43I think this is the first thing we must bear in mind.
  354. 24:46It leads us directly to Paul Kennedy’s book, The Rise and Fall
  355. 24:51of the Great Powers. His argument seeks to determine whether, timelessly
  356. 24:57and across civilisations, a universal logic governs how
  357. 25:02a state rises to power, reaches its zenith,
  358. 25:07and then falls into decline.
  359. 25:10Why would I bring up his book in this context?
  360. 25:12Because Paul Kennedy emphasises and demonstrates that
  361. 25:18when a power shifts from macroeconomic strength and
  362. 25:25political power to excessive military power, it becomes exhausted.
  363. 25:32Moreover, following on from Paul Kennedy's
  364. 25:35reasoning, I feel there is one point rarely emphasised that
  365. 25:40warrants our attention.
  366. 25:42While most observers focus on the specific percentages
  367. 25:49of customs duties and their impact on the different trade
  368. 25:56relations, the true
  369. 25:58interest lies elsewhere. In this logic of customs duties, we
  370. 26:01can see a tremendous admission.
  371. 26:04Let’s consider it this way: could this need or urgent rush
  372. 26:08to impose customs duties actually reveal
  373. 26:13what may be an impression of perceived difficulty or
  374. 26:19economic weakness?
  375. 26:21If we compare this with American history,
  376. 26:25I think it would that we would easily see
  377. 26:29that the United States of the 1950s or 1960s
  378. 26:35never feared economic competition or felt the need to set up customs barriers
  379. 26:38to protect itself against economic powers that seemed
  380. 26:42to threaten its growth.
  381. 26:44On the contrary, we should remember that after 1945,
  382. 26:49Washington actually encouraged French and British
  383. 26:53decolonisation to open up markets that had been closed by colonial
  384. 26:57tariffs. Back then, the United States was confident in
  385. 27:01its ability to dominate any open market.
  386. 27:04This focus on customs barriers suggests
  387. 27:07something quite interesting.
  388. 27:10In Paul Kennedy's view, this expansive display of
  389. 27:15power functions as a paradox; rather than signalling
  390. 27:20absolute strength, it underscores a profound
  391. 27:23anxiety regarding national decline.
  392. 27:28This distinction is vital for our reflection.
  393. 27:33Finally, as a third element,
  394. 27:36we should note that by doing so,
  395. 27:39the United States adopted a global role it had never held since its
  396. 27:44birth on 4 July 1776.
  397. 27:48In fact, a closer look reveals that the United States
  398. 27:50has always played—or at least asserted—
  399. 27:53a singular role in the international order,
  400. 27:57driven by various, shifting reasons.
  401. 28:00Gérard Chaliand and Arnaud Blin underscore this in
  402. 28:04America is Back: Les Nouveaux Césars du Pentagone (in French).
  403. 28:08I’m thinking of page 99 in particular; the title of chapter four.
  404. 28:13Translated literally, it’s Woodrow Wilson's catechism.
  405. 28:16The term catechism is quite interesting, because we can clearly see that
  406. 28:19there was a claim to have brought a unique message,
  407. 28:24to be a unique player, rightly or wrongly,
  408. 28:27a claim to be the defender of democracy and freedom, and therefore to be
  409. 28:33a very special player in international relations.
  410. 28:35Yet there is nothing of the sort in the document we are discussing.
  411. 28:39It contains no intent to convey a political message.
  412. 28:43We are thus witnessing the banalisation of the United States.
  413. 28:50We’re looking at an actor that suddenly eschews the mantle of classic player in
  414. 28:55international relations, and is now defending its interests and exerting
  415. 29:00influence like the various powers of the past, or indeed,
  416. 29:04its contemporary rivals in this third decade of the 21st century.
  417. 29:08This may not be the least of the paradoxes we could examine,
  418. 29:12but there is another, perhaps more vital and unexpected,
  419. 29:18that warrants our attention.
  420. 29:22You identified another, albeit still unexplained paradox that could
  421. 29:26potentially affect the Trump administration’s record by the second term’s end.
  422. 29:32What exactly is this paradox?
  423. 29:34Donald Trump, through the actions we have examined,
  424. 29:37seems to be perfectly in tune with
  425. 29:42this world of geopolitical power relations.
  426. 29:46But there’s a “but”.
  427. 29:48Upon closer examination, Donald Trump's actions appear to be based
  428. 29:52almost exclusively on a macroeconomic logic.
  429. 29:55We could revisit the events previously mentioned—and particularly his speeches
  430. 30:00and verbal explanations— to find that
  431. 30:04his focus remains nearly entirely confined to
  432. 30:10this specific line of reasoning.
  433. 30:12I will provide a few examples to further
  434. 30:15illustrate this point.
  435. 30:17It was quite striking, in the aftermath of the strike
  436. 30:21on Iran, to hear the U.S. President explain to journalists aboard Air Force One
  437. 30:26that Iran should abandon
  438. 30:30its nuclear ambitions since the country would be
  439. 30:35far better served by focusing on commercial operations.
  440. 30:37Furthermore, the Iranians are remarkable business people with a potential for
  441. 30:41extraordinary development on commercial logic.
  442. 30:43In a similar vein, when the Washington Accords were signed
  443. 30:47on 5 December 2025, it was equally startling to
  444. 30:51observe Donald Trump— offering hearty pats on the back
  445. 30:56to the representatives of Rwanda and the Democratic Republic
  446. 31:01of Congo—declaring:
  447. 31:03You'll see, we're all going to make a lot of money.
  448. 31:06It's true that this is quite out of step with the outlook.
  449. 31:10However, I think another example will take us even further,
  450. 31:14because when, at the end of June, he welcomed NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte
  451. 31:19in his office and discussed relations between Israel and Iran in a rather
  452. 31:24condescending manner on the one hand, but above all in a rather offbeat manner on
  453. 31:29the other, he compared Iran and Israel to schoolchildren fighting in
  454. 31:35playground who need to be separated.
  455. 31:37But what we are saying here is much more important than it might seem.
  456. 31:41This reveals a fundamental misunderstanding of
  457. 31:48geopolitical logic, which is here
  458. 31:51reduced strictly to a macroeconomic dimension and
  459. 31:54the pursuit of profit.
  460. 31:57While the administration may grasp the balance of power,
  461. 32:01it fails to recognise that ideological principles and national interests often transcend
  462. 32:07macroeconomic concerns when dealing with geopolitics.
  463. 32:10This oversight frequently leads Trump and
  464. 32:14his advisors to misjudge the evolution of certain situations.
  465. 32:17I am thinking specifically of the war between Ukraine and Russia—a conflict
  466. 32:22that in the eyes of Vladimir Putin and the Russian leadership, clearly cannot
  467. 32:28be reduced to a simple macroeconomic perspective.
  468. 32:32This distinction is vital; while the Trump administration may appear
  469. 32:40synchronised with the geopolitical reality, it
  470. 32:47lacks the substantive political framework or interpretation mentioned in America is Back:
  471. 32:54Les Nouveaux Césars du Pentagone (The New Caesars of the Pentagon).
  472. 33:00It is entirely possible that the future of the USA will necessitate a reintroduction
  473. 33:04of this political framework.
  474. 33:08There will therefore be a return to a Wilsonian perspective,
  475. 33:13or confirmation of a radically different perspective,
  476. 33:19such as that espoused by Vice-President J D Vance.
  477. 33:23However, there have already been major consequences at
  478. 33:26the global geopolitical level.
  479. 33:28Even before future events unfold, we are witnessing consequences that
  480. 33:32affect the Trump administration, the USA, and its broader sphere of influence,
  481. 33:36reaching across the globe.
  482. 33:38First, yes, and this last word is significant,
  483. 33:43as it emphasises that we’re still in the realm of hypothesis rather than certainty.
  484. 33:48If the West still exists, what does it entail?
  485. 33:53That is a real question.
  486. 33:55Earlier, we examined how geography per se represents
  487. 34:00a significant issue in the mind of the American administration.
  488. 34:05However, we can also see that this question arises even more acutely within the specific
  489. 34:10relationship between the USA and Europe.
  490. 34:13We might further extend this inquiry by asking if the future
  491. 34:16belongs to the American ambition to
  492. 34:22change European policy—aligning it with their own vision of
  493. 34:28what allies should be— or if the Europeans will
  494. 34:31successfully wait for new US elections to restore the previous nature
  495. 34:37of the relationship.
  496. 34:38This dynamic reveals a primary consequence of significant weight.
  497. 34:44Yet there is also a secondary one.
  498. 34:46This is the final nail in the coffin.
  499. 34:50It’s the final nail in the coffin for international law.
  500. 34:53We are now faced with the question of how to leverage law to oppose
  501. 34:58Russia and deny Moscow the possibility of expanding their territory?
  502. 35:04Similarly, we must ask how we can expect to hold China to
  503. 35:08international law regarding its ambitions in Taiwan,
  504. 35:13especially given Washington’s actions over the last twelve months—
  505. 35:17most notably in Venezuela.
  506. 35:20We are clearly in a period of immense upheaval, which many interpret as
  507. 35:28a return to realpolitik.
  508. 35:31I don’t believe it.
  509. 35:33Realpolitik has always been present.
  510. 35:36And so, in fact, it is a wake-up call for Westerners, and particularly
  511. 35:42for Europeans, who have so often clung to this dream of eternal peace,
  512. 35:48not to say perpetual peace. Europeans will
  513. 35:53have to relearn how to live alone. But to
  514. 35:56live alone in geopolitics, they must relearn how to see themselves as a power.
  515. 36:03To be a power or not to be.
  516. 36:07To paraphrase Shakespeare in Scene 1 of Act 3 of Hamlet:
  517. 36:12Prince of Denmark, which turns the matter back to Greenland.
  518. 36:18This is the response Europeans must now formulate.
  519. 36:22But can they manage to ask themselves the question?
  520. 36:26Regardless, Fabrice, thank you for guiding us towards this reflection on the connection
  521. 36:29between solitude and power, which I find particularly fruitful.
  522. 36:33And I hope you all can join us again very soon for another session of
  523. 36:36Rendez-Vous de la Géopolitique. Thanks
  524. 36:38Thank you.
  525. 36:39Thank you all for following this new session of
  526. 36:42Rendez-vous de la Géopolitique. See you soon!

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