Trump menace de couper le diesel à l'Europe, juste avant l'hiver — Transcript

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1. 0:00On September 22nd, at the White House,
2. 0:02a reporter asks Donald Trump a question
3. 0:04. Is he prepared to ban American diesel
4. 0:08exports? The answer comes without
5. 0:10hesitation. I've already said it, Trump
6. 0:12replies. We are not sending diesel out;
7. 0:15we produce a lot of it. A few minutes
8. 0:18later, his Treasury Secretary, Scott
9. 0:20Bessent, confirms: "The administration
10. 0:22is seriously considering a total or
11. 0:24partial ban." According to the American
12. 0:28press, a 90-day plan is even on the
13. 0:30table. For Americans, it is a measure
14. 0:32to lower prices at the pump before the
15. 0:35November elections. But for Europe, it
16. 0:37is a direct threat because Europe this
17. 0:39autumn depends on American diesel like
18. 0:41never before, and because at the same
19. 0:43time, it is preparing to enter winter
20. 0:45with the lowest gas reserves in years.
21. 0:48So, is Europe walking straight toward
22. 0:50an energy crisis? And why could its own
23. 0:52American ally deliver the finishing
24. 0:54blow? Let's look at the numbers. Let's
25. 0:57start by understanding why Trump has
26. 0:58reached this point. In the United
27. 1:00States, the price of diesel has just
28. 1:02broken all records. On September 22nd,
29. 1:04the average price exceeded 6 and a half
30. 1:06dollars per gallon, according to the
31. 1:08American Automobile Association. That
32. 1:10is nearly 80%more than a year ago. And
33. 1:13diesel in the United States is no small
34. 1:15detail. It is the fuel for trucks,
35. 1:18tractors, and freight trains. When it
36. 1:20skyrockets, the whole economy pays.
37. 1:23Farmers, carriers, and at the end of
38. 1:25the chain, consumers. With six weeks
39. 1:29until the midterms, it is a political
40. 1:30bombshell for the Republicans. So,
41. 1:33several elected officials are proposing
42. 1:34a seemingly simple solution. An Alaska
43. 1:37senator, Dan Sullivan, is calling for a
44. 1:40temporary pause on exports to, I quote,
45. 1:42"rebuild our reserves before winter and
46. 1:45put American families first." A
47. 1:48Tennessee representative has even
48. 1:50introduced a bill, and the Senate
49. 1:51majority leader supports the idea. The
50. 1:54problem is that the United States is no
51. 1:56ordinary diesel seller. They are the
52. 1:59world's leading exporters. In August,
53. 2:01they exported a record 1.6 million
54. 2:04barrels per day. On the global market,
55. 2:07about one in five barrels of diesel
56. 2:09transported by ship is American. And
57. 2:11who buys this diesel? Brazil, Chile,
58. 2:14Mexico, Peru, Morocco, and especially
59. 2:16two of Washington's allies: France and
60. 2:18the United Kingdom. Because that is the
61. 2:21real issue. In a few months, Europe has
62. 2:23become dependent on American diesel.
63. 2:26According to figures cited by Euronews,
64. 2:28this year, the United States is
65. 2:30supplying 32%of the European Union's
66. 2:33diesel imports. Last year, it was 17%,
67. 2:36nearly twice as much in one year. And
68. 2:38in Northwest Europe, it's even more
69. 2:40striking. Of all the diesel arriving
70. 2:43from outside the region, 57%comes from
71. 2:46the United States. A year earlier, it
72. 2:48was 37%. France is on the front line.
73. 2:51It imports about 63,000 barrels of
74. 2:54American diesel per day. That's 36%of
75. 2:57all its diesel imports. The United
76. 3:00Kingdom, for its part, depends on the
77. 3:02United States for 26%of its imported
78. 3:04diesel. Why such a dependency? Because
79. 3:07Europe has closed its own refineries.
80. 3:09In France, Grandpuits and Donges have
81. 3:12reduced or shut down capacity. In the
82. 3:14United Kingdom, the Grangemouth
83. 3:16refinery has closed. As a result,
84. 3:18Europe no longer produces enough diesel
85. 3:20for itself and must buy it elsewhere.
86. 3:23And elsewhere, precisely, the other
87. 3:24suppliers have collapsed. Russia banned
88. 3:27its own diesel exports after Ukrainian
89. 3:30strikes against its refineries. India,
90. 3:32which was Europe's major backup
91. 3:34supplier, saw its exports to Europe
92. 3:37drop from about 163,000 barrels per day
93. 3:39to 50,000. And the Middle East is at
94. 3:42war. Since the start of the conflict
95. 3:44with Iran, the Strait of Hormuz is
96. 3:46blocked by the Americans on one side
97. 3:48and the Iranians on the other. And on
98. 3:51September 11, Houthi rebels took
99. 3:53control of the islands in the Red Sea.
100. 3:56They now hold the entire Yemeni coast
101. 3:59of the Red Sea and with it the Bab
102. 4:01el-Mandeb Strait, the other major oil
103. 4:03passage to Europe. As a result, Europe
104. 4:05is so short of diesel that it is going
105. 4:07to get it from the other side of the
106. 4:09world. In early September, a tanker
107. 4:12loaded about 90,000 tons of diesel in
108. 4:15South Korea to bring it to Northwest
109. 4:17Europe. A journey of more than 19,000
110. 4:21km. Usually, such a trip makes no
111. 4:24economic sense, but diesel has become
112. 4:25so expensive in Europe that it is
113. 4:27becoming profitable. According to
114. 4:29Euronews, the price of diesel in Europe
115. 4:31has more than doubled since the
116. 4:33beginning of the year. Now, imagine
117. 4:35that in the middle of all this,
118. 4:37Washington turns off the tap. An
119. 4:39analyst from the Capler firm sums up
120. 4:41the situation. For Europe, the
121. 4:43immediate effects are higher prices.
122. 4:46Northwest Europe would have to outbid
123. 4:49to attract replacement cargoes. In
124. 4:51other words, Europe would have to pay
125. 4:53even more for diesel that is becoming
126. 4:55increasingly scarce. Emmanuel Macron
127. 4:58reacted. He warned that such a decision
128. 5:01would drive up prices, while assuring
129. 5:03that France was not directly dependent
130. 5:06because its main suppliers were,
131. 5:08according to him, Nigeria and Saudi
132. 5:10Arabia. Except that the figures cited
133. 5:13above tell a different story. And
134. 5:15diesel is only half the problem,
135. 5:17because Europe is simultaneously facing
136. 5:20a gas crisis. Look at the reserves.
137. 5:22Every year, Europe fills its gas
138. 5:24storage facilities during the summer to
139. 5:26last through the winter. The official
140. 5:29target is 90%capacity. This year,
141. 5:32Brussels even relaxed the rule,
142. 5:34allowing a margin down to 80%. And yet,
143. 5:37even this reduced target seems
144. 5:39difficult to reach. As of September 1st
145. 5:42, European storage was only 65%full.
146. 5:46That is the lowest level for this date
147. 5:48since records began in 2011. On
148. 5:51September 18th, it was at 69%. That is
149. 5:54nearly 19 points below the five-year
150. 5:57average. In Germany, Europe's largest
151. 5:59economy, it is worse. On September 24th
152. 6:02, German reserves were only 57%full.
153. 6:06The lowest September level in at least
154. 6:0915 years. The German gas storage
155. 6:11association warned that if the winter
156. 6:13is colder than previous ones, the
157. 6:15country risks shortages. Why is Europe
158. 6:18failing to fill its reserves? For two
159. 6:20reasons. The first is Russia. Before
160. 6:24the war in Ukraine, it sent about fifty
161. 6:26billion cubic meters of gas per year to
162. 6:28Europe. This gas has almost entirely
163. 6:31disappeared, and since then, Ukraine
164. 6:33has also been striking the Russian gas
165. 6:35industry. On September 9th, Ukrainian
166. 6:38drones traveled over 3,000 km to strike
167. 6:41two major gas plants in Siberia, in the
168. 6:43Yamal region. Ukraine had never struck
169. 6:46that far before. The second reason is
170. 6:48Qatar. To replace Russian gas, Europe
171. 6:51turned to liquefied natural gas,
172. 6:53delivered by ship, mainly from the
173. 6:56United States and also Qatar. But
174. 6:58Qatari gas passes through the Strait of
175. 7:00Hormuz. With the war involving Iran,
176. 7:03these deliveries have stopped. So,
177. 7:05everyone is fighting for the remaining
178. 7:07shipments—Europe, Asia, everyone—
179. 7:10and prices are soaring. In
180. 7:12mid-September, the price of European
181. 7:14gas exceeded € 80 per MWh. That is
182. 7:17more than in January 2023, during the
183. 7:19first winter without Russian gas. At
184. 7:21the end of June, it was still under €
185. 7:2340. More than double in less than 3
186. 7:26months, and notice who provides the
187. 7:28bulk of the liquefied gas still
188. 7:29arriving in Europe. The United States.
189. 7:32For diesel as for gas, Europe has
190. 7:34placed itself back in the hands of
191. 7:36Washington. Exactly what Washington had
192. 7:38been asking of it for years to no
193. 7:40longer depend on Russia. And today, it
194. 7:42is that same Washington that is
195. 7:43threatening to turn off the tap. For
196. 7:45Europeans, the bill is already arriving
197. 7:47. In August, inflation in the eurozone
198. 7:50rose back to 3%, driven by energy.
199. 7:53Energy prices have jumped by 14%in one
200. 7:57year. And on September 10, the European
201. 8:00Central Bank raised interest rates,
202. 8:02making credit more expensive for
203. 8:03households and businesses alike at the
204. 8:05worst possible time. But beware, this
205. 8:08diesel ban would also be a hard blow
206. 8:10for America itself. In the United
207. 8:12States, the oil industry is up in arms.
208. 8:16The US Chamber of Commerce and major
209. 8:17business leaders have written to the
210. 8:19White House to warn them, and even
211. 8:21within the administration, the Energy
212. 8:22Secretary and Interior Secretary are
213. 8:24reportedly opposed to the idea. Why?
214. 8:27Because many American refineries,
215. 8:30especially on the Gulf of Mexico, are
216. 8:32export-oriented. If they can no longer
217. 8:35sell abroad, diesel will pile up in
218. 8:37their storage tanks. According to the
219. 8:39firm Capital Economics, this surplus
220. 8:42could paradoxically force American
221. 8:44refiners to cut production within weeks
222. 8:46. In other words, a ban meant to lower
223. 8:49prices could end up driving them up.
224. 8:52And there is something more serious.
225. 8:54Energy economist Philippe Verleger
226. 8:56warns that the world would no longer
227. 8:58view the United States as a reliable
228. 9:00energy supplier. According to him, a
229. 9:04ban could even cause global diesel
230. 9:06prices to surge by up to 100%. For now,
231. 9:09nothing has been decided. Some analysts
232. 9:11think Trump is testing public opinion
233. 9:13rather than preparing an actual measure
234. 9:15. But the simple fact of considering it
235. 9:17changes things already. Because for
236. 9:20years, Washington has told Europeans:
237. 9:22buy our energy, it's safer than
238. 9:25Russia's. The Europeans did. And at the
239. 9:28first difficult winter, the American
240. 9:29president explains that he prefers to
241. 9:31keep his diesel for himself. So, what
242. 9:33will happen this winter? Everything
243. 9:36will depend on factors that Europe does
244. 9:37not control. First, the weather; a mild
245. 9:39winter and Europe will get through
246. 9:41without too much damage. A cold winter
247. 9:44and gas reserves could run out before
248. 9:46spring. Next, the Middle East; if the
249. 9:49Strait of Hormuz reopens, Qatari gas
250. 9:51will return. And finally, Donald
251. 9:54Trump's decision. One thing is certain:
252. 9:56even in the best-case scenario,
253. 9:58Europe's energy bill will be much
254. 10:00heavier than usual this winter for
255. 10:02households, farmers, transport
256. 10:04operators, and all of European industry
257. 10:06. And you, what do you think? Was
258. 10:08Europe wrong to replace Russian gas
259. 10:10with American energy? Will Trump really
260. 10:13cut off the diesel? Tell me in the
261. 10:15comments. If this video taught you
262. 10:17something, subscribe to Actuo and share
263. 10:20it with others. And to go further, also
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