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Trading Weltmeister vs Trading Coaches (es eskaliert) — Transcript

by Tom Vorwald · 7,158 words · 1,170 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00My name is Tom Vorwald. I am a two-time
0:02world trading champion with Trade to
0:04Traders and today I have ten guests,
0:06traders and trading gurus visiting me
0:08and I will be discussing with them.
0:10They all claim to have a working
0:12strategy. I will take them all apart
0:15today. My time is intended for those
0:18coaches who are unable to prove that
0:20the system that they are using actually
0:21works. If you are a trading coach, why
0:23do you not simply invest the time into
0:24trading yourself and continue to make
0:25more and more for your own account? So
0:27I trade with indicators.
0:29That is the best there is.
0:32Nothing worked with them. If people
0:34choose to trade using such strategies
0:35now, they are destined to fail; they
0:36might as well play the lottery or go
0:38straight to the casino instead. Money
0:39makes the world go round. Trade won,
0:40trade won. Trade lost, trade lost.
0:45Trading success does not depend on the
0:48strategy, but on the right mindset.
0:52Hello. Nice to meet you. Tom. Hi, I'm
0:55Colin, I'm 21 years old, and have been
0:57trading for 3 years. I am utilizing a
0:59complete trading system centered on a
1:00simple open range breakout strategy,
1:02and my goal for today is to pit myself,
1:03as a relatively young guy, against a
1:05very long-standing expert in the field
1:07to see what the final outcome of this
1:08particular challenge will be.
1:09Before we get started, what exactly
1:11does the term mindset mean to you? At
1:13the end of the day, I believe mindset
1:15is having control over our own mind and
1:17knowing exactly how we should be
1:18dealing with our various thoughts and
1:20our emotions.
1:21Okay, that's an interesting theory, but
1:23it's good that we're not talking about
1:25apples and oranges, let's get started.
1:27Please explain to me why this theory is
1:30wrong. To address this point right away
1:33: I agree with a small portion, but for
1:36the most part, I am of the opinion that
1:38the way it is presented on social media
1:40and other platforms, suggesting that
1:42trading is 80%psychology, is something
1:44that is definitely not true for the
1:46majority of people. Because in my view,
1:49the mindset problem that most people
1:50experience and the psychology problem
1:52are simply symptoms, but they are not
1:53the actual underlying cause of the
1:55issue itself. I have statistics
1:57covering 2,000 individuals, and for
2:01over 80 percent of them, these
2:02subconscious blocks are the primary
2:04obstacles preventing them from
2:06achieving any kind of success. How do
2:08you refute that?
2:08I would suggest that we simply take a
2:10look at the problems that most people
2:11have, provided that we do not start
2:12from a small percentage of the
2:13population, but rather focus on the
2:14absolute majority of all people.
2:16Pro%is not a small percentage,
2:17okay? Of most people, let's say, who
2:18are just starting out. Ultimately,
2:20let's compare it like this. It's like
2:21going to the doctor, and in my opinion,
2:23that's what most people need.
2:25So, wait a minute, you have a strategy
2:26that functions exceptionally well, and
2:28you are of the opinion that if one
2:29possesses the right mindset, then
2:31everything is easy, correct?
2:32I think that if you implement the
2:34system, you don't need anything at all
2:35and follow it strictly, just like you
2:37brush your teeth in the morning, then
2:39you don't need anything at all.
2:41How do you want to create this inner
2:42neutrality in dealing with money?
2:44I find this to be quite exciting,
2:46because at the very moment you press
2:47that button, the energy of the money is
2:48active within the market.
2:49Absolutely. Absolutely. And you switch
2:51that off completely.
2:53I'm not saying that. Of course,
2:54emotions are always there. We are human
2:56beings, that will never go away. But it
2:58depends on the extent to which I allow
3:00them to run wild, how I consistently
3:01stick to them, and whether I simply
3:03proceed with it or decide not to follow
3:05the strategy at all. But let me just
3:07quickly explain myself.
3:09Let me give you an example. For most
3:10people, it is just like going to the
3:12doctor to get a prescription; they
3:13sleep only three hours every day, but
3:15ultimately, they are the ones who are
3:17actually creating the very cause of the
3:18problem. They go to the doctor and want
3:20to get pills prescribed because they
3:21are thinking, okay, I am tired every
3:22single day, and I really do not know
3:23what the problem is. The fact that
3:25you're tired is the symptom. The
3:26problem with emotions is exactly the
3:28same. However, the root cause is that
3:29you do not have a fixed system in place
3:30, nor do you have a fixed strategy or
3:32any fixed set of rules to follow.
3:33Okay. Also, if you have a fixed
3:35strategy,
3:35mhm. When you have very clear sequences
3:37, mindset and everything of that nature
3:39is completely absent. You don't need
3:40them.
3:41That's why I said at the beginning that
3:42it's a small part of it.
3:43How much percent? I'd
3:45say 5%. I'd
3:46say 80%.
3:47Okay, because in the end, I can tell
3:49you that my emotions do not play a role
3:50anymore, because I place my trade, I
3:52know quite clearly that even the
3:54smallest detail is predefined, I
3:55execute it, I let it run, and that is
3:57all there is to it for me personally.
3:59What statistical indicators have you
4:01collected that give you this confidence
4:02, that you no longer have any stress at
4:04all? I mean, ultimately I see it with
4:06people who are likely still at the very
4:08beginning, yet it still works for them,
4:10even without
4:11any indicator that you possess a
4:12reproducible track record you could
4:13refer to, demonstrating that the entire
4:15approach is actually functioning in a
4:16sustainable manner over the long term.
4:18I think if you simply take the last few
4:20years and see from that, okay, how I
4:21applied this and how it works for
4:23participants,
4:23if you had been on the capital markets
4:26in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010,
4:29you would have come across completely
4:31different laws than the ones that have
4:32been present since then. Absolutely,
4:34the world does not adapt, which is
4:35completely normal, but that is
4:36precisely why we are the ones who have
4:37to adapt. That's
4:38half right, but unfortunately it's
4:40mostly an assumption that is wrong.
4:42So, I am going with what is working
4:43right now; even though it is clear that
4:45things were different ten years ago, I
4:46am going to focus entirely on what is
4:47working for us at this current moment.
4:49The biggest problem that people have is
4:50simply those who are always complaining
4:51that they are experiencing various
4:52difficulties with their emotions. They
4:54first have to exaggerate the cause of
4:55the problem, and that's the biggest
4:57problem. But the root cause is
4:59ultimately a matter that lies deep
5:01within you.
5:02No, the actual cause is that you lack a
5:03strategy and a fixed system where
5:05everything is clearly defined.
5:06Statistically speaking, if I provide
5:07100 traders with a strategy that
5:08functions exceptionally well, they
5:09still face the same underlying issue
5:10because they simply do not follow the
5:11established process. 80%of them do not
5:12manage to earn any money with that at
5:14all. Why is that? The problem is just
5:18that I think this is not a
5:19mindset-related issue, rather it is a
5:20matter of the general mindset when you
5:22look at it in the end. But that does
5:24not have to do with trading. The only
5:25thing that you truly have to learn, and
5:27that is my firm opinion, the only thing
5:29you have to learn is to generally get
5:31yourself as a human being under control
5:32. This also transfers to trading. But
5:35it is not exactly as portrayed on
5:36social media, where it is presented as
5:37if it were the single biggest problem.
5:39The only thing that you really have to
5:40get under control is your gear, and of
5:42course, your own personal fear. But
5:44that is a topic of general concern for
5:45us as human beings. But that is a small
5:47issue,
5:47yet that is precisely the very issue
5:48that I am currently refuting here.
5:49And the thing is, I can largely
5:52eliminate this emotion through my
5:55strategy. If everything is already
5:56predefined and I do not provide my
5:57emotions any space, then my emotions
5:59are unable to occupy any space at all
6:00for me.
6:00How do you manage to isolate yourself
6:02so that there is no space for emotions,
6:03while
6:03everything is predefined and I am
6:04simply following these clear steps?
6:06Just like
6:07trust, you base the entirety of it on
6:08the premise that it is impossible for
6:09things to develop otherwise. At what
6:10number of children do you become
6:12restless? By knowing what I have tested
6:14over the past years, that it truly
6:15works, and that I can simply follow the
6:17pattern again each and every new day.
6:19Unfortunately, it didn't convince me at
6:21all, but thanks for your time.
6:23Okay, thanks, Tum.
6:24The rules of the game. Once a thesis
6:26has been presented, the participants
6:28are free to decide whether they wish to
6:30face Tom and openly express their
6:31personal opinion regarding the stated
6:33thesis. But each person only has 5
6:36minutes per thesis. After 15 minutes, a
6:40new thesis is presented. Should the
6:43other participants, however, decide
6:44that they would like to switch people,
6:46they are permitted to raise their flag
6:47to indicate this. If they have five
6:50flags, the person is out. Let the show
6:53begin. Yes, a quick comment on that, as
6:56you have just seen again here quite
6:59clearly: mindset is something entirely
7:01different from a clear strategic
7:03approach that allows one to move into
7:05implementation with inner neutrality
7:07and without any stress or pressure. And
7:09I can say that this confusion takes
7:11place among 99%of all people whenever
7:13they are dealing with their own money.
7:15There is one exception, psychopaths.
7:21My name is Mark Gründer. I head the
7:23Finance Division at the Gründer Family
7:25Office. I have been trading on the
7:26financial markets for 18 years now, and
7:28I am here today in order to engage with
7:30Tom and to critically examine all of
7:32his theses. I'll
7:33give you a few more seconds. The
7:34previous speaker stumbled over his
7:36words quite a bit and I think I'm
7:37really curious to hear what you have to
7:39say now.
7:39Yes, I think it has nothing to do with
7:42mindset. 0%, absolutely zero. Let me
7:45give you an example, if you take the
7:47example of me, I mainly trade arbitrage
7:48.
7:48Mhm.
7:49If a stock is priced lower on one
7:50exchange than it is on the other one,
7:52mhm.
7:52then that has nothing to do with my
7:53thinking.
7:54Mhm. It's a
7:55mathematical fact.
7:56That means when I enter the trade, it
7:57doesn't mean...Are
7:58you doing this fully automated or
8:00manually?
8:00You can do both. It depends on what
8:02kind of arbitrage.
8:02Fully automated or manually?
8:04Manually, because I'm not doing price
8:05arbitrage right now. Those days are
8:07kind of over.
8:08But the moment you enter something
8:09manually, you immediately have an
8:11emotion in it.
8:120.0
8:13you 0.0. Let me give you an example.
8:15For example, let's say you want to
8:17arbitrage swap rate interest, which is
8:19to say refinancing rates; in that case,
8:21the refinancing rate is, when it comes
8:23down to it, ultimately a value.
8:24Hmm.
8:25For example, with Broker 1, the shop
8:27position costs you $ per lot, for
8:29example. On the other hand, you earn
8:311.50.
8:31Hmm.
8:32What do you need a mindset for? Mindset
8:34is something meant for those coaches
8:35who are unable to prove that their
8:37specific system actually works in
8:38practice. They simply can't. And in
8:40order to somehow introduce a variable
8:41into their system, I would like to ask
8:43you to give
8:43me the definition of mindset.
8:46Yes, mindset is ultimately the way in
8:48which you behave and that which
8:50influences your own personal
8:52decision-making process, is that
8:54okay?
8:54Personally for you. And when it comes
8:57to the right trading strategy, mindset
8:59has absolutely no place in the equation
9:01. And many people simply use it as a
9:03scapegoat at the end of the day, just
9:04to say, yes, that is my strategy, but
9:06your mindset did not function or you
9:08were not good enough, yet fear, fear,
9:10and gear are things you completely
9:12nullify in your entire process, simply
9:14because there is no risk involved at
9:16all in what you are doing. Don't I
9:17understand that?
9:18No, there is risk. So, you can get a
9:21lot of slippage. But that has nothing
9:24to do with emotion. Then it's like the
9:26trade is lost. Emotion, when you win,
9:28win, trade, lose, trade.
9:30That may not be the case. Maybe you can
9:32function like a robot. I can tell you,
9:34I've been trading on the stock exchange
9:36for over 20 years and after certain
9:38losses, for example, I focus on money.
9:40That just happens. Why? I grew up
9:42hearing the specific phrases and words
9:44that money rules the whole world.
9:46Without money, you are nothing, and the
9:48corresponding mindset that I have
9:50established from that, and the focus on
9:52the future, how I want to see myself–
9:55because that's where mindset comes in
9:57–always has a nuance in trading. And
9:59as soon as risk is involved, there are
10:01direct references to those subconscious
10:03patterns that you have established over
10:05the course of the past. That has
10:07nothing to do with coaching chatter,
10:08but that is a completely normal part of
10:10you when your fear carrier is triggered
10:12and that has to do with your frontal
10:14lobe. But at the end of the day, the
10:16strategy would function in such a way
10:17that it can be proven exactly how it is
10:19supposed to be working. You talk a lot
10:21about statistics as an example
10:22and statistics are exactly my thing at
10:24the end of the story. Um, because
10:27either the SW rates are different from
10:28each other or they are simply not
10:29different.
10:30100%
10:30corporate action charges between the
10:32brokers, either they are even or they
10:33are not even in relation to each other.
10:35There is no room for definition. Mhm.
10:36B not that you win.
10:38Mhm.
10:38Because of course you can place a trade
10:39, you were too slow on the other side,
10:41there was a delay or whatever,
10:43but at the end of the day it's rigid
10:45and in a proper trading strategy for
10:48asset management, it either works or it
10:51doesn't. There's nothing in between.
10:54A trading strategy can function well,
10:56function quite well, or it can be
10:58half-bad or very poor, of course;
11:00but at the end of the day, if I proceed
11:01by focusing only on mindset, I might as
11:03well tell the people that they could
11:04instead play the lottery, or that they
11:05could simply go to the casino.
11:07Decisions in the casino are highly
11:08emotional, but the training process
11:09should not resemble a casino in any way
11:10. If I understand you correctly, you're
11:12saying that 100%with the right strategy
11:14is mindset zero.
11:15I view zero quite differently, because
11:18as soon as you are dealing with money
11:21in any way, then
11:22losses, but also potential profits,
11:24might actually be able to be predicted.
11:26Do you have emotional entanglements
11:27with your subconscious patterns that
11:29have been building up throughout your
11:30life when it comes to dealing with
11:31money? And mindset is the path, how do
11:33I polarize myself into the future, who
11:35do I want to become? How do I shape
11:36myself?
11:37Then you become emotional. A person
11:38always becomes emotional whenever they
11:39find themselves in a situation that
11:41they are unable to properly assess.
11:42That means, I am currently doing
11:43something. That is a presupposition.
11:45That is a presupposition. This means at
11:47the end of the day, a human being will
11:49always become emotional or rather
11:51jittery whenever they are placed into a
11:53situation with
11:54which they are not entirely familiar.
11:56But in such a situation, no, no, wait,
11:58I am just about to get to my point now.
12:00And at the
12:01end of the day, they do that because
12:02they are now in a situation that they
12:04are not familiar with. That means they
12:05are outside of what they are doing and
12:07that is simply a mistake.
12:08How can you verify in advance what the
12:09exact size of your slippage is, once
12:11the situation suddenly starts to become
12:13quite strange?
12:13It is quite simple. You know what Top
12:16of the Book
12:17100%or relatively simple?
12:19100%,
12:20100%, I am with you, you can also read
12:23everything via Fix. You know in advance
12:26what will happen before you make the TR
12:27, which happens. Sure, it is possible
12:29for things to happen,
12:30but you are contradicting yourself now,
12:31because you told me earlier that it is
12:32also possible for a slippage to occur,
12:34which you are not able to justify in
12:35this particular situation. You see the
12:37volume at the top of the book. You can
12:39evaluate how likely slippage is.
12:42Of course, something could happen from
12:43Trump at that very second.
12:44Exactly. But that
12:45is extremely unlikely, and
12:46realistically you will be totally
12:47relaxed when you actually get hit right
12:49in the middle of the face. It doesn't
12:50matter at all, because in arbitrage you
12:52always have an H position. I enjoyed
12:53your discussion, but it did not
12:55convince me one hundred percent that
12:57mindset is zero.
12:59Thank you very much.
13:01And I also believe that even though I
13:02do not agree with Tom regarding the
13:03content of the discussion I recently
13:05had with him, he is doing his job quite
13:06well and represents many of the points
13:08of view that I also share and support
13:09from my own personal perspective. In my
13:11view, it is never feasible or possible
13:14to completely ignore mindset or
13:16emotional states once there is any
13:18chance that risks could be involved or
13:20come into play at any given moment. And
13:23there is no strategy on the capital
13:25markets that is 100%safe, and therefore
13:27you will always be faced with having to
13:29deal with emotional conflicts in some
13:31way or another. That is my position and
13:34I found this discussion particularly
13:36interesting, as my partner is a very
13:38mathematical and extremely statistical
13:41person. I am aware that emotions play a
13:42very subordinate role in his approach,
13:44but the idea that it is 100 percent
13:45zero, that is something I simply cannot
13:47believe. Greetings.
13:49Yes, hello.
13:49Hi.
13:51My name is Viktor. I used to work in
13:53institutional banking for many years
13:55and have been an independent trader and
13:57money manager for over 20 years now.
14:00Success in trading is not determined by
14:02having the right strategy, but rather
14:04by possessing the right mindset.
14:06So when considering this, my main
14:08concern is that the viewer can take
14:10something away with them,
14:12yes, even learn something.
14:14It is, of course, a common platitude
14:16that nonetheless contains a great deal
14:18of truth.
14:19Hmm.
14:20But in the end, you are going about the
14:23whole thing the wrong way around. Okay,
14:26the first thing that's absolutely
14:30essential is that a strategy exists,
14:33100%.
14:34And there are other things that come
14:36before that, but first of all, you need
14:38a strategy with a positive expected
14:39value. Unfortunately, brokers are
14:41currently being heavily promoted on the
14:43internet, which
14:44encourages a high level of trading
14:46activity, yet in the final analysis,
14:48there is no real expected value, or
14:49rather, no expected value that actually
14:52exceeds the costs incurred. What does
14:54that have to do with our question?
14:55Yes, if people are trading with
14:57strategies like these, they can have
14:59the most incredible mindset imaginable.
15:01They will fail,
15:02100%. That's a given
15:03from the outset.
15:06Hmm. That is
15:07why a proper mindset is very important,
15:09but without a functioning strategy in
15:12place, nothing will work at all.
15:15Can I take a quick
15:16look? I have a strategy which possesses
15:18a positive expected value, and it is
15:19running wonderfully for other people as
15:21well. Hmm. I'm starting to
15:22implement this strategy, but it doesn't
15:24work at all for me.
15:25Hmm. What's
15:25the issue behind it?
15:28That is, of course, the point now,
15:29assuming that you already have a
15:30strategy in place which actually works.
15:32Hmm.
15:32So first of all, the strategy has to be
15:34there,
15:35otherwise it wouldn't have worked in
15:36the near future.
15:38Therefore, the strategy must be in
15:40place first, and then it is a matter of
15:42executing it, and only after that does
15:44the mindset come into play, not before.
15:47There's something else, namely that
15:49there are very different personality
15:51types. Yes, Brian Mix personality e.g.
15:55Traderna.
15:57Ah yes, okay. I am not that familiar
16:00with the subject at the moment, but
16:01that is a perfect personality model.
16:03Yes. If someone has an unfavorable
16:06character, so to speak, they are going
16:08to find things much more
16:10difficult for themselves. Yes. And I
16:12think this character comes before the
16:14mindset. They can then attempt to
16:16optimize their mindset, but if that
16:17contradicts their character, or if
16:19someone is severely
16:21hysterical—you agree with the
16:23statement that I made, right?
16:26Yes, but wanting to work on your
16:27mindset is ultimately the very last
16:28thing you should do. First, you have to
16:30determine if this is the right path or
16:32if you are dealing with a gambling
16:33problem. Anyone who tends toward
16:36gambling addiction, or who should never
16:38be trading in the first place, can
16:41try to adjust their mindset as much as
16:42they want, but it will not make a
16:43difference. A strong mindset is
16:45extremely important for those
16:47individuals who already possess the
16:49necessary prerequisites and a good
16:51strategy, as they must also work on
16:53their mindset.
16:54Why?
16:55Yes, because they can naturally
16:57optimize things, for example by
16:58sticking to their strategy, so that
16:59they truly get the maximum out of
17:01themselves. Of course, mindset is a
17:03very important factor, but to begin
17:05with, who am I really? Is this
17:07something for me? Do I have a sensible
17:09trading strategy? And then, of course,
17:11one must continue to work on that very
17:12trading strategy. Many people who have
17:14the wrong personality structure, for
17:16example, who are playful, just want to
17:18press the button, they want to...I'd
17:20like to quickly mention something
17:21that's really interesting, what you
17:23just said, that you have my idea of
17:25what I do. Yes, the first thing I do is
17:27provide people with the opportunity, by
17:29means of a potential analysis rather
17:30than a personality development
17:32assessment, to see what kind of
17:33potential they truly possess, but above
17:35all, to identify which specific
17:37unconscious blockages they are carrying
17:39with them.
17:40Then I go ahead and say that, given
17:41these specific skills, this strategy
17:43will be effective and purposeful for
17:44you. We have a matrix consisting of
17:46different models, specifically Breakout
17:48Trader, Countertrader, Swinger, and
17:50Skyper, just to
17:51frame it properly for you. And only
17:53then do I provide that person with a
17:54reproducible strategy featuring a
17:56positive expected value and explain
17:57that it aligns with their personality;
17:59subsequently, I examine their
18:00subconscious behavioral patterns, and
18:02that is when we can begin to work on
18:03both their mindset and their structure.
18:05That is also, that is also very good,
18:06and I can give it my absolute
18:08recommendation. That is indeed the
18:09right approach; therefore, a
18:10personality analysis should definitely
18:12be the very first thing we do here.
18:14Exactly. Um, however, if we now go into
18:16our thesis, something is of course
18:18being sold here again, as if you could
18:20leave that out and just have to work on
18:23your mindset. And I don't see that. So.
18:26Am I 100%with you?
18:27Then we don't understand each other.
18:27That's what it's all about for
18:28me 100%.
18:29First comes the foundation, then
18:31follows the strategy, and lastly you
18:33can address your mindset, but that
18:34mindset will be of no use if the
18:36foundation has not been established
18:38first. I view this in a somewhat more
18:40nuanced way, because if you are someone
18:42who looks very positively to the future
18:44and engages with tools that may not be
18:46particularly profitable, you will
18:47possess the ability to construct
18:49something from them, provided you have
18:51a certain residual intelligence; and
18:52most people who bring the necessary
18:54skills to even want to concern
18:56themselves with their own development
18:57actually possess that level of
18:59intelligence.
19:00Yes, absolutely. The important thing is
19:02that you possess a strategy, because if
19:04you happen to have no strategy, then
19:06everything that you do is bound to be a
19:07mistake. I'm
19:08100%with you. Thank you very much. That
19:12was fun.
19:12Thank you very much. 100%my world. I am
19:15also of the firm opinion that, without
19:17employing a strategy with a positive
19:18expected value, you will never be able
19:20to earn any money on the capital
19:22markets. But without clearing out your
19:25subconscious blocks, you will never be
19:27able to successfully implement a
19:29positive strategy for yourself, because
19:31you will always let yourself be
19:33controlled unconsciously and thus do
19:35things that do not lead to the goal
19:37that you are somehow imagining in your
19:39current mindset. That's why this was a
19:41really cool discussion. It is not
19:43possible to trade profitably with just
19:45one hour of your time per day. Hello.
19:54Hi.
19:56Hi, I'm Walz. I've been trading for 6
19:59years. By now, I have managed to build
20:01a community of over 500 people across
20:02two different languages. Today I'm
20:04going to show Tom what I'm capable of.
20:07Hi, I'm interrupting for a moment. It
20:08will continue in a moment. I hope you
20:10enjoy this video. If you would like me
20:13to enter the ring against a certain
20:14group of people to debate with other
20:16traders, then please feel free to write
20:17to us in the comments section to let us
20:19know who exactly you would like me to
20:21debate against in that setting. I'll
20:22then read through everything in peace.
20:25And if you are interested in learning
20:27how to trade from actual world
20:28champions, just click on the first link
20:30in the video description and prepare to
20:32be surprised. Enjoy the video.
20:35I don't agree. I'm curious. Tell me how
20:37you do that.
20:38Yes, it depends on what kind of
20:40strategy you have.
20:41If you have a strategy with a rule
20:43before the fourth one, you do
20:45not always have to look all the way to
20:47the final depth every single time;
20:48instead, you can see very quickly
20:49whether a setup emerges or whether it
20:51presents a genuine opportunity or not.
20:53That means you sit in front of your
20:55computer for an hour every day and wait
20:57for a setup that I am required to sign
20:58off on within that exact same one-hour
21:00window.
21:01No, less.
21:02Less.
21:02Well,
21:03I maintain a watchlist that consists of
21:05about 30 currency pairs.
21:06Mhm.
21:06I can look through them all.
21:08When do you do that? Within that hour
21:10or before? Usually once in the morning,
21:12once in the evening.
21:13That is already two additional periods
21:15of time that you are using up and
21:17consuming in order to fill that single
21:18hour of trading. That doesn't make it
21:20to one hour anymore.
21:21Well, that would be a maximum of 10
21:23minutes per evening and per morning.
21:25But we are no longer at one hour of
21:27trading per day, which is all I need in
21:28order to be able to trade in a
21:29profitable manner.
21:30Why not? Block less than one
21:32question for you. How do you do that
21:34specifically with an hour? Hmm.
21:36Well, I take a look at the specific
21:37currency pairs that I choose to trade.
21:39Dementsprechend weiß ich, wie sie,
21:41sagen wir es mal so, insgesamt aussehen
21:43. I check through every single
21:45timeframe from top to bottom
21:46within 10 minutes, and they
21:48are usually consisting of
21:4935 wiringars in total.
21:50Yes, during the first attempt, let us
21:51say,
21:52you must invest more time if you are
21:53starting from scratch, but I have been
21:54in the game for quite some time now,
21:55let us say five years, and accordingly,
21:57I know every single one by heart; so
21:58when you ask me, hey, where is today's
21:59outcut located, I know the answer
22:00immediately. I say, "At the very top."
22:02The thing only goes up. Unfortunately,
22:04there are no corrections, I can't do
22:05anything.
22:05Hmm.
22:06Accordingly, I already know the few by
22:07heart. I don't need to invest that much
22:09time.
22:09Hmm.
22:10And because of that, I can also manage
22:12to spend an entire hour trading while
22:14doing it.
22:14So, you are in a position to predefine
22:1635 currency pairs primarily within your
22:18own head, simply because you know all
22:20of those pairs so very well indeed. And
22:22what do you do then? Well, I have my
22:24training strategy, and during my day I
22:25take a look at it; a training strategy
22:27must be designed in such a way that you
22:29say: "Hey, when this happens, then this
22:30condition must be fulfilled, and only
22:32then do you have an action," which
22:34means that you then have a trade.
22:35What trading strategy is the basis for
22:37all of this, that you can actually
22:38achieve this within an hour?
22:40Hmm. I work with Fibonacci and
22:42Fibonacci extensions.
22:44Hmm. Fibonacci extensions and Fibonacci
22:47retracements are based on price data
22:49from the past, are they
22:51not? And from that you have built a
22:52strategy that is reproducible. How many
22:54years have you been using this system?
22:56For 5 years.
22:57For 5 years. If you had employed such a
22:59strategy back in the Leemen Brothers
23:01era, it is highly questionable whether
23:02it would have worked out for you in the
23:04end. Do you do a reversal or do you do
23:06a breakout and follow the trend?
23:08Exactly. Uh, I think corrections will
23:09prevail.
23:10Hmm. Okay. Now imagine the following.
23:12In a market phase such as the one I am
23:13speaking of, which occurred quite often
23:15in currencies many years ago and which
23:16will also return in the future, these
23:18specific strategies will no longer be
23:19able to function as they did before.
23:21What risk management is at stake in the
23:23whole thing?
23:24Yes, that's not entirely correct. At
23:26the end of the day, you're not just
23:27trading one currency bar, but the
23:29entire broad mass. Accordingly, you
23:31will certainly have one or the other
23:32currency bar where you are going to
23:34find that you actually have a valid
23:35setup. Fibonacci retracements represent
23:37a static vehicle that utilizes
23:38mathematical probabilities, which are
23:40specifically designed and calibrated
23:42based on prices from the past. Now
23:43imagine the following. The ATR, which
23:45is the extension or range, suddenly
23:47expands many times over, and you are no
23:49longer able to use the past 5 years as
23:50a reliable point of reference for your
23:52analysis. How do you deal with that?
23:54At the end of the day, I also work with
23:56price action, which doesn't just mean
23:57Fibonacci. Accordingly, the market
23:59gives the other picture at the end of
24:01the day, right? So there is underpriced
24:03price action and from that I am able to
24:04see, okay, is there a setup present for
24:05me to trade or is there not? You
24:07perform all of this within one single
24:09hour; with 35 different currency pairs,
24:11you are able to localize everything,
24:13draw the corresponding Fibonacci
24:14retracements, and utilize the price
24:16action to check if you have an entry
24:18setup if necessary—and all of that
24:20can be accomplished in the span of just
24:22one hour. I really question that. Well,
24:24with a trained eye it is possible,
24:25right? Okay, if someone wanted to learn
24:28this, how reproducible would you
24:30consider this particular vehicle to be?
24:32That
24:32is a very good question, because it is
24:34very reproducible.
24:36I have a community that spans different
24:37languages, different countries, and
24:39different cultures, and they all work
24:40together using the exact same system.
24:42Okay. And how profitable are people
24:44with it?
24:45It always varies, right? When it comes
24:47to daily trading, it is not only about
24:49what you can actually do on the chart,
24:51but it is 100%about the emotions
24:52involved,
24:53and not everyone is actually cut out to
24:54be a trader. We know that, at the end
24:56of the day, the vast majority of
24:57traders fail; indeed, most retail
24:58traders ultimately fail. There are
24:59people who, for example, I hate the
25:01word but mindset is not enough, who
25:03want to get rich quickly, drive a
25:04Lamborghini tomorrow, but are simply
25:06not willing to invest the years and
25:08time that it actually takes.
25:09Hmm. Okay. And so you are operating
25:12under the assumption that if someone
25:14wishes to learn this, they are capable
25:16of reproducibly designing this very
25:17path within an hour, given an hour of
25:19time invested each day, all pre-planned
25:21for period X. Is that
25:22correct?
25:23Okay. I highly doubt that, because I am
25:25familiar with Bryce Action and I also
25:27know for a fact that Fibonacci
25:28retracements only function effectively
25:30when markets are currently within their
25:32more stable phases. As soon as the
25:34markets are changed significantly by
25:36volatility, those concepts, in fact,
25:37stop functioning as they should. Why?
25:40Because they only make reference to
25:41past prices, and past prices are always
25:43a reflection of that which occurred
25:45during the time in the past. But if you
25:47have to look into the future and if you
25:49have to select for yourself, what might
25:51happen? Do you need more information?
25:53How do you deal with that? Well, I
25:55actually work with these. Oops, we're
26:00done then.
26:02Thank you very much. Okay, two more
26:04people are interested in taking a
26:05closer look with us to see whether it
26:07is actually feasible and possible to
26:08generate sustainable profits while
26:10trading within the span of one hour.
26:12How long do you have experience? You
26:14have
26:157 years?
26:17I want to talk to you.
26:21Hello first.
26:23Hi, hello, Tom. Hello, my name is Andre
26:25Witzel from trading.de. I have been
26:28trading privately for over 10 years and
26:30I use a day trading strategy with the
26:32trend. With just
26:33one hour of your time, profitable
26:35trading is possible for you. I am very
26:37curious to hear what you have to tell
26:38me.
26:39Yes, that is definitely possible, even
26:42with date trading.
26:43Okay.
26:44My strategy is based on the fact that I
26:46only trade one market a day. It is the
26:49S&P 500 and the whole thing is also on
26:51a one-minute chart.
26:52Okay.
26:53So very briefly. About the frame. Do
26:54you exclusively rely on chart patterns
26:56within the one-minute chart, or do you
26:57utilize additional tools as well?
26:59I wouldn't call it a chart pattern, but
27:02I do a very uniform analysis and trade
27:04with the trend.
27:05Explain that briefly and concisely.
27:07First, I look at whether the market is
27:09moving in a certain direction. For a
27:11certain period, I observe: "Hey, the
27:12market has perhaps been moving in one
27:14direction for two hours, so naturally,
27:15I want to trade in that same direction
27:17as well." That constitutes my initial
27:18analysis. At that point, I zoom out
27:19quite a significant distance to see the
27:20big picture. When do
27:20you start trading in the S&P 500? I
27:22start at 3:45 p.m. The first few
27:25minutes are too volatile, usually
27:27with the analysis or with the trading?
27:29The analysis can take place 5 minutes
27:31beforehand. I need everything to have
27:33taken place, it's premarket. That means
27:35there's no cash session yet. That means
27:37you have absolutely no verifiable,
27:39significant orders from any of the big
27:40players that you would be able to refer
27:42to in this specific context. And
27:44I don't have any, I'm not interested in
27:45them. These large numbers do not
27:47interest me. Instead, I first observe
27:48whether the market is moving in a
27:50certain direction, then I can formulate
27:51a trading idea and perhaps decide to
27:53trade in that direction, which is to
27:54say, I trade right along with the
27:55established trend. Then I look and
27:57think, could it be that the market is
27:58actually heading towards a specific
28:00target? Because it's important to
28:01define the target. My strategy
28:03incorporates
28:04a high and a low point, or
28:04alternatively, a sideways consolidation
28:05phase. I exit there, from the
28:07pre-session, specifically from the
28:09previous
28:10session, where I can identify a high or
28:12a low, or even a sideways phase.
28:14Exactly, I exit at that point, and then
28:16I attempt to achieve a high CRV by
28:18utilizing my trade entry and holding
28:19the position all the way through to the
28:22final target. So, for example, you
28:25enter the market at 15:53 to reach a
28:27predefined target, which you derived
28:29from the pressure, for instance, and
28:31that represents your specific path. My
28:33position on this is very simple. I see
28:35zero liquidity there. I don't know
28:37whether my targets are defined based on
28:38the global players, whether there was
28:40really a strong capital flow or not.
28:42That's really exciting for me to see,
28:43because then I know whether it will go
28:44through or not. Are these things that
28:46you choose to ignore, or are the
28:47technical levels the only factors that
28:48are currently of importance to you?
28:50Only the technical levels are crucial,
28:51because I don't care about these big
28:53players. It is impossible for me to
28:54know whether a big player is currently
28:56entering or exiting a position based
28:57solely on the volume. And I really
28:59focus on the highs and lows, because
29:00that's where you can see sustainably,
29:02when it breaks through highs and lows,
29:03that there is always a pullback. For
29:05example, it comes back and that's when
29:07I exit. So I make use of the highs and
29:09the lows as exit liquidity, for example
29:11.
29:12You do not have a fixed exit; instead,
29:13you simply wait for the reaction that
29:14is going to take place over there. No,
29:16the fixed exit is that I have my
29:18technical profit at the high and low,
29:20or within the sideways phase, once I
29:21see the market slowing down as a
29:23sideways phase begins to take hold.
29:25Exactly.
29:26Where is your stop loss? Regarding
29:27my stop loss, I have certain signals
29:29that I am receiving. These are small
29:31pullbacks within the trend,
29:32and I enter once this pullback has
29:34occurred with the stop loss adjusted to
29:36the pullback, while keeping my stop
29:38loss set at a very, very tight level.
29:40Okay, that implies that you have a high
29:42risk-reward ratio, and what would you
29:44say are your average risk-reward ratios
29:46when you look at the whole picture from
29:47that perspective?
29:48I always aim for a two f, but I also
29:51trade a Z and sometimes it even runs to
29:53a Z se.
29:54Might I ask what kind of hit rate you
29:55are achieving when you are using this
29:56model for yourself?
29:57In the range of 30%. Exactly. Or even
30:01less.
30:01Okay, very good. I really like what you
30:03just said. Ask yourself the following
30:05question. Wouldn't it be super useful
30:07for you to see whether there really is
30:09liquidity right now so that you don't
30:10invest in the market when the moment
30:12comes to use a setup? Wouldn't that
30:14help you incredibly? And wouldn't it
30:16also help you enormously if you could
30:18justify predefined targets in such a
30:20way that you know whether it will stop
30:22there or whether it will go through?
30:25You can use that as additional
30:26confirmation. I've tried it all myself.
30:29I threw it out because it is just
30:30another additional chart window, which
30:31causes far too much confusion for the
30:33users. I focus exclusively on the
30:35direct movement, and it is highly
30:36likely that liquidity will be present
30:39at the high and the low, or perhaps
30:41volume; however, that
30:42is an assumption which I absolutely
30:43cannot approve of, because the fact is
30:45that liquidity is sometimes present at
30:46those points, and at other times it is
30:48simply not there at all. It also
30:49depends on the context; do I have a
30:51trend phase that is stable, or do I
30:52have a balancing phase in which a short
30:54, temporary trend begins to develop?
30:55Completely different concepts.
30:57Liquidity can, depending on the
30:58circumstances, simply be provided by an
31:00algorithm, or it can be removed again
31:01through means like spoofing or various
31:03other techniques. Layering. These are
31:05quite wild assumptions regarding
31:07practices that have actually become
31:08forbidden on the capital markets in the
31:10meantime.
31:11Yes, but when you look at the order
31:12book, it becomes clear that we must
31:13also take the order book itself into
31:14consideration.
31:15No, I won't take that. I used it two
31:16years ago and I also traded with it
31:18back then.
31:18Okay. And that wasn't very successful.
31:21No, that is far too much information
31:22for me, and also too much for most
31:24people who simply want to do this
31:25part-time. In my experience, managing
31:27five charts is just too difficult;
31:28however, it is definitely possible to
31:30trade profitably if you dedicate at
31:31least one hour of time to it.
31:32Okay. And finally, may I ask what kind
31:35of performance figures you are
31:36achieving with your specific style of
31:37trading; could you perhaps share those
31:39with me?
31:39I earn on average a five-figure amount
31:41every month with my day trading
31:42activities. Yes.
31:43And how much do you lose when things go
31:44badly? Um, then I have a fixed risk
31:47limit. Yes, it's around $ 500 per day
31:50at most. So, when things go really
31:52badly, we're down about $ 3,000 on
31:54average.
31:55But you will face losing streaks of
31:56over 20 trades if you assume a hit rate
31:58of 30 percent; in mathematical terms,
32:00the actual probability is even higher
32:01than that.
32:02Okay. I have not yet experienced a
32:04sequence of 20 losses in a row like
32:06that before. But if the mathematical
32:08key figures indicate this quite clearly
32:10, then it is more than likely that what
32:11I have here is actually the better
32:12option.
32:13Okay, that means that the entire model
32:15is not statistically 100%accurate.
32:16No, but it works.
32:18Okay, thank you very much.
32:20My conclusion. None of the competitors
32:24were able to credibly demonstrate to me
32:26that it is actually feasible and
32:27possible to earn money sustainably as a
32:29trader with only one hour of predefined
32:32time. That is my conclusion. Anyone who
32:34chooses to trade based on seasonality
32:36is simply letting the past make a
32:38complete fool out of them. When will we
32:40buy next?
32:41In October.
32:42Regardless of where the price stands,
32:44this remains a total scam machine
32:45operated by Pro Trading Accounts. Now
32:47explain to me what the scam is about.
32:49To me, slanted lines are something for
32:51weirdos. Did you learn this knowledge
32:54yourself or did you have someone teach
32:56you this?
32:57Yes, I had someone teach me. At a
32:59really
32:59high price.
33:01What can I say about that? It just
33:03doesn't work.

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