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Trading Isn't Hard, Your Exits Are Just Wrong — Transcript

by Waqar Asim · 10,056 words · 1,389 segments · language en · Watch on YouTube

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0:00Once you understand profit taking
0:01systems, trading becomes super simple.
0:03The reason being there is limited ways
0:05to enter in the market. Everybody has a
0:07different strategy. Everybody has
0:08different break even protocols, but the
0:10real thing that matters is how you
0:11manage your profit taking systems.
0:13Shooting for the moon, shooting too far
0:15into the distance can leave you having a
0:17lot of trades that reverse on you. But
0:18cutting your trades too early means you
0:20don't benefit fully from risk to reward
0:22and you don't actually capture the main
0:23portion of the move. Therefore, what I'm
0:25going to show you in this video today is
0:26irrelevant of your strategy, irrelevant
0:28of your entry type or stop loss
0:30placement. I'm going to tell you the
0:31most optimal way to be taking profits in
0:33the market, not based on specific
0:35indicators, not based on any specific
0:37system, rather based on data around
0:39average price movement in certain
0:40specific areas you will be entering. So,
0:42by the end of this video, you can take
0:44the same trades you're already taking
0:45but getting paid more for it because
0:47you're getting more out of the market on
0:48a longer term horizon. Let's get into
0:50it.
0:52So, before we get into the profit taking
0:53systems, I want to understand where are
0:55you likely going to be entering. You're
0:56likely trading a mix of SMC, supply and
0:59demand, market structure, trend
1:00analysis, maybe support and resistance,
1:02trend lines, doji candles. Again, all
1:04very similar things. So, where are you
1:06likely entering in the market? Without
1:08knowing, a lot of these strategies end
1:09up entering in very similar places. So,
1:11usually in a market where you have a
1:13bearish trend, you may be taking the
1:15high to the low and you can say, "Okay,
1:16I have a supply zone at the high." Some
1:18of you may plot out a Fibonacci level
1:20your 61.8, your 70, your 80 fib is
1:23around here. Others of you may be
1:24seeing, "Okay, there is a trend going on
1:26over here." You extrapolate out a trend
1:28line. There's going to be similar places
1:30all of us are going to be entering.
1:31Especially when you come to these areas
1:33and you don't get entry criteria, you
1:34wait. You wait. Maybe there's nothing at
1:36the Fibonacci, you may end up at the
1:37supply zone. And then everybody is going
1:40to be thinking about entering in that
1:42area. Why? Reason being it's a lower
1:44high that made a lower low. All of us
1:46are likely following the trend, that's
1:47the sensible thing to be doing and
1:48you're going to be looking for forms of
1:50rejection. Forms of rejection, again,
1:52they are limited. You can have a double
1:54top that's going to be someone's entry.
1:55Another person may see a head and
1:57shoulder pattern whatever time frame. It
1:58doesn't matter. It's a rejection. Other
2:00people may see trend up, break of
2:02structure, trend down. Waiting for that
2:04BOS, taking the entry based on that
2:06rejection. There's limited ways to be
2:08entering in the market. There's limited
2:09ways to be seeing a rejection. Meaning
2:11to say if we're all entering generally
2:14following the trend. If we're all
2:15entering generally finding a rejection,
2:18whether it's on the 5-minute, whether
2:19it's on the 1-hour, whether it's a doji
2:20candle, whether it's a SMC sweep. It
2:22doesn't matter too much because we're
2:24all looking for sell scenarios from some
2:26trigger in this area. It might be a
2:28little bit above the zone. It might be a
2:29little bit before the zone, but it's
2:31this box and this direction. That tells
2:33me if we're all generally thinking in
2:35similar ways, we're all entering upon
2:37similar criterias. I always love to
2:39think of how many ways are there to
2:40enter the market. And you might start to
2:42map out all types of scenarios. Here's a
2:44few. You might also say indecision
2:45candle. You might have an indicator
2:47rejection, an EMA cross. You may also
2:49just have, like I said, the break of
2:50structure lower. You might have a
2:52two-leg protocol bearish. You might have
2:54a market execution based on an engulfing
2:56candle. There are going to be many ways
2:58to be entering, but maybe you can list
2:59out five, maybe you can list out 10,
3:01maximum 20. So, if you have limited ways
3:03to enter the market, how many ways can
3:04you place a stop loss? Well, you could
3:06do fixed risk reward. I always put a
3:0810-pip stop. I always put a 20-pip stop.
3:10You could also do based on highs. So,
3:12you could say I'm going to cover this
3:13high after my break of structure. You
3:15could say let me cover the second leg on
3:16the two-leg protocol. You might say on
3:18this M5 engulfing, let me cover the
3:20recent high. You might say on the head
3:21and shoulder pattern, I cover the
3:22shoulder or I cover the head. On the
3:24double top, you might just say a little
3:26bit above. There's always going to be
3:27finite ways to enter based on a local
3:29high or a regional high or maybe the POI
3:32itself. So, if there's finite ways to
3:33enter, finite ways to put a stop loss,
3:35and we're all trading in similar ways,
3:37in similar zones, then the only
3:39difference I can think of between a
3:41trader that gets the move right, gets
3:43into the trade, but doesn't get paid
3:44enough, doesn't have a positive equity
3:46curve, it means you're not messing up
3:47your entry. It means you're not messing
3:49up your stop loss. You are messing up
3:50your profit-taking systems. So, instead
3:52of just trying to shoot for the moon and
3:54just say, "I'm going to sell all the way
3:55to a lower low." Or I'm just trying to
3:57catch to the neckline. Whatever
3:59arbitrary level you have, what is that
4:00based on? Is it based on emotion?
4:02Because if you're in a winning period
4:03and you think you're the man and you
4:05think everything's going your way,
4:06you're going to shoot a little bit
4:07further than you normally do, picking
4:08the daily lower low. Or in another
4:10scenario, when you're feeling in a
4:12losing period, a little bit pessimistic,
4:13a little bit down, you just want to grab
4:15whatever the market gives you, you might
4:16just take profits at the first break of
4:18structure in your direction, which is
4:20way too soon. So, what is the optimal
4:21way to be doing things? There's going to
4:23be a few terms I'm going to share with
4:24you. I'm going to explain them later on
4:26on why they are relevant. Number one is
4:27going to be ATR, average true range.
4:30Then I also want to understand
4:31volatility. I also want to understand
4:33what type of rejection I'm entering
4:35upon, because there are going to be
4:36certain areas you enter or certain
4:38scenarios you enter that are going to
4:40have more market impact. So, I'm going
4:41to also put scheme. Scheme is basically
4:43trying to understand what type of market
4:45cycle I'm in. Am I in an expansion? Am I
4:48after a consolidation, after a
4:50distribution or accumulation? Am I
4:51entering a London open where it is
4:53generally more volatile and the scheme
4:55is going to be more expansive? So, when
4:56you consider these things, it helps you
4:58pinpoint where the market is more likely
5:00to go. The reason I'm mentioning all of
5:02this in the first place is because
5:03imagine your equity curve. Now, what is
5:05the goal of our equity curve? Naturally,
5:07this is going to be time or trades. So,
5:10as time goes on and as you place more
5:12trades, one trade, two trades, 10
5:13trades, 100 trades, whatever, as time
5:14goes on, more trades placed, and
5:16obviously your profit. You start off and
5:18you want to make more and more profit as
5:19time goes on. This might be 5% gain.
5:22This might be 50% gain. Our goal is over
5:24time, we want to be slowly trending
5:27towards the top right corner, meaning
5:29over time you are making profits.
5:30Naturally, a trader's journey is not so
5:32simple, because you'll have periods
5:34where you are performing and you might
5:35have a high risk reward play. You might
5:37even beat your edge, and then naturally,
5:39after winning period, comes a losing
5:41period and you might slowly come back to
5:43where your baseline is. This middle line
5:46is known as your expectancy or I like to
5:48call it EV, expected value. The expected
5:51value is the only reality in the market
5:53you can have. If you're a trader and you
5:54have a system, the only place you will
5:56end up after 100 trades is your EV. You
5:59can't be lower, you can't be higher
6:00unless you don't follow the plan or you
6:02go on tilt and now you start to gamble,
6:04now you start to revenge trade, FOMO
6:06trade and now you will go below your
6:07baseline. But if you now follow the plan
6:10once again, it doesn't mean you're going
6:11to end the year terribly. As long as you
6:13follow the plan, your EV you will
6:15whipsaw back to your baseline, which is
6:16your expected value. So you might
6:18underperform, you might overperform, you
6:19might go through a winning period,
6:20losing period, but it's all going to be
6:22temporary because this is your EV. This
6:24is where you always end up. Running
6:25through different Monte Carlo
6:27simulations, you'll actually get
6:28percentiles, which means you'll have a
6:301% tile and you'll have a 99% tile. That
6:33means, let's say my expected value is
6:3550% after 100 trades. That means the 1%
6:39tile as a mix of your win rate, your
6:41risk to reward, your trade frequency,
6:43your risk per trade, there's going to be
6:45slight variance because it might look
6:46something like this. It might look
6:47through a a losing period and then win
6:49back at the end. It might be a winning
6:51period and then flattens out. There's
6:52many ways to go from beginning to end
6:54and this is your Monte Carlo simulation.
6:56There's going to be very serious, you
6:57might be flat and then you might have a
6:58boom at the end. All of these scenarios
7:00are how you can end up at your EV at
7:0250%. How you get there is going to be
7:04different. So this variance is described
7:06by your 99 and 1% tile. The reason this
7:09is important is because it's going to
7:10help you understand the random
7:12distribution of outcomes in the market,
7:15which means if you have a 50% win rate,
7:16wouldn't it be great if your trades came
7:18as win then loss then win then loss then
7:22win then loss then win then loss. 50%
7:25win rate, this is really easy on your
7:26psychology. Why? Because you get a 1:3
7:28risk to reward win, then you take a 1%
7:30loss and then you take another 3% win.
7:32So you're going to be gradually gaining
7:33over time. This is ideal, but then the
7:36reality for most traders is going to be
7:37a mix. You might have a couple of wins,
7:39then you might get a couple of losses
7:40and then you might get another couple of
7:42wins. So, again, your 50% win rate is
7:44the same. You won the same amount as you
7:45lost, maybe another one to match it out.
7:47But, the reality is you went through a
7:48drawdown period. So, here, if you go
7:51through four or five losses in a row,
7:52that's pretty bad for your mindset, and
7:54it's going to encourage you to go on
7:55tilt. Your psychology is going to be
7:56there. Maybe now you're going to reduce
7:58your risk, because if you're doing
7:59percentage risk, if your account is
8:00100k, now it's at 50k, let's say. You're
8:02doing 1% risk per trade, you went from
8:041k risk to 0.5k or $500 risk per trade.
8:08So, you can see how going into drawdown
8:10the random distribution of outcomes get
8:12achieving your 50% EV, depending which
8:15roadmap you took, can be harder because
8:16of your psychology. What I want to tell
8:18you in this video is how you can manage
8:20your profit taking systems to ensure the
8:22outliers are not what you are facing,
8:25but rather the smooth curve in the
8:26middle that is easier on your
8:28psychology, that is a smoother ride
8:30there, and in fact, a lift on your EV.
8:32The reason it's going to be a lift on
8:33your EV is because it's the same system,
8:35same entries, same stop loss placement,
8:37same scenario, same confluences that
8:39arrives you to your EV. It just tells
8:41you how to better capitalize upon it.
8:43Because if you're taking profits too
8:44early or too late, and you don't even
8:46know why, you don't even know that
8:47you're doing it, it might feel good in
8:49the moment you take a trade and hits one
8:50to three. Cool, you banked in 3%, but
8:53then the trade runs a bit more. You say,
8:54"Okay, I took my profit, I got paid for
8:56the day. There's nothing to learn from
8:57here." But, if that happens 100 times,
8:59you're leaving a lot of percentage
9:01between where you took profit and where
9:02you could have taken profit. And then,
9:04if you start to say, "Well, I'm just
9:05going to move it, I'm going to put it at
9:06one to five now." All of a sudden, your
9:08trades may not reach the one to five.
9:10And therefore, you have a lot of trades
9:11that go into profit and end up break
9:12even or loss. So, there is going to be a
9:14sweet spot, and I'm going to tell you
9:15how to find it. So, in just a moment,
9:17I'm going to break down these terms,
9:18ATR, volatility, and the scheme you're
9:20in. But, generally speaking, what kind
9:22of a trader are you? If you're a swing
9:23trader, if you are taking trades and
9:25your scheme or your theme that is
9:27related to geopolitical factors,
9:29macroeconomics, maybe fundamentals, then
9:31you're trading a completely different
9:32scenario to what I'm optimizing for.
9:34Because what I'm optimizing for is
9:35traders that are trading intraday,
9:37intra-session, or scalping.
9:39Specifically, if you are trying to
9:40maximize on prop firms, I definitely
9:42encourage you to do that. Why? Because a
9:43swing trader doesn't have a high trade
9:44frequency. They might have a decent
9:46risk-reward. Swing traders generally
9:48have a 1:5 or 1:3 risk-reward. But
9:51generally, they're taking one to three
9:53trades per month on a good month, and
9:55they are holding these trades for weeks.
9:57And if you're doing, let's say, 1 to 5%
9:59risk per trade, you may even trip into
10:01margin utilization depending on how many
10:03trades you're in. And then, of course,
10:04your win rate for your win rate might be
10:05decent. It might be 50% plus. Maybe
10:07swing traders can even reach 60 to 70%
10:10win rate. But great, what does this
10:11formula lead to? Well, a good
10:13risk-reward, low trade frequency, high
10:16trade duration, win rate very good, and
10:19then risk per trade, okay, acceptable or
10:21maybe even a bit high, but you've got to
10:22because you want to squeeze more out of
10:24it because you're in trades forever. So,
10:25that formula becomes good risk-reward,
10:28bad trade frequency, bad trade duration,
10:31good win rate, and risk per trade, well,
10:33let's just say average. This together
10:35equals your rate of return. How fast you
10:38scale. Because the person with the same
10:39stats, but just taking more trades
10:40instead of taking one to three trades
10:42per month, they take 10 trades per month
10:44or 30 trades per month. Then all of a
10:45sudden, the same equity curve positive
10:47to the right is going to be very similar
10:49in terms of how big each winning trade
10:50is, but the trade frequency will make it
10:51way higher. So, you're likely to achieve
10:53the same rate of return way faster.
10:55Instead of here, you are here. That time
10:57or amount of trades makes a difference,
10:59which is what you're optimizing for.
11:00Because as a prop firm trader, someone
11:01who's likely to scale their account, you
11:03don't want to spend three weeks in a
11:05single trade just to get the phase one.
11:07And then another three weeks just to get
11:08the phase two, and then you finally get
11:10funded, and then eventually get a
11:11payout. By then, a scalper or an
11:13intraday trader, they may be already in
11:15the first week taking enough trades to
11:16get phase one and phase two. And by
11:17second week, they're already getting
11:18payouts. That's why rates of return
11:20matters, which is why prop trading
11:21systems optimize for intraday trading
11:24based on ATR volatility and scheme is
11:26the best way to scale on prop firms. And
11:28obviously, if you want to have a
11:29positive expectancy, then the better
11:31your expectancy is, the easier your life
11:33is going to be with prop firms. That's
11:34why I don't focus on swing trading
11:35specifically for prop firms because it's
11:37just going to take you so much time to
11:39pass trades if your trade frequency is
11:41low. Even if your risk-to-reward and win
11:43rate is good. And again, you might just
11:44say, "Well, a swing trader can get a
11:45better risk-to-reward because they just
11:47hold it with the trend or they hold it
11:48because of the theme." Well, you have
11:49consistency rules. So, if that one
11:51winning trade makes up 70% of your
11:53profit, you won't get the payouts. You
11:54need to have a few of them. So, longer
11:56time to reach the payout cap, and by
11:58then who knows what that prop firm may
12:00do by seeing too much profit in a
12:02buffer. They might even deny the payout.
12:03Therefore, lying low under the radar of
12:05prop firms instead of trying to get 30%
12:08home run payouts, 30K in a payout, which
12:10may get denied, they may take you with
12:12more scrutiny, why not take six times 5K
12:14payouts? This is going to fly under the
12:16radar, low risk of rejection. And again,
12:18you can do this in a faster pace and not
12:20just rely on one big trade. It makes way
12:22more sense because you get funded
12:24faster, you get payouts more
12:25consistently, you're less likely to get
12:27denied, and you don't waste your time. I
12:28like to think of my effort puts in the
12:30markets because the back testing is a
12:31given. The effort is a given. Showing up
12:33every day is a given. But if I adjust my
12:35payout for how much time I put in, the
12:37swing trader is going to get a less per
12:39hour rate because that trade that might
12:41take weeks to play out might end up
12:43break even. So, you spend weeks of time
12:45to not get paid, but in the same time
12:46the scalper, the intraday trader, they
12:48might have already had five wins, five
12:49losses with a positive risk-to-reward.
12:51They've already got paid for that time.
12:52So, pay for your effort, paid for your
12:55time. You also have to consider that so
12:56you are beating at least minimum wage.
12:58So, as I'm walking through the profit
13:00taking system blueprint and explaining
13:01to you the logic and the wisdom behind
13:03why we're doing it and why it's optimal,
13:05if you want my full profit taking
13:06blueprint system as a downloadable
13:08resource, it has a calculator, it has
13:09all of the diagrams and everything you
13:11need. But most importantly, it's doing
13:12it for you. It's helping you out so you
13:14don't have to always do the math based
13:15on your lot size, based on your stop
13:17loss size, based on all these
13:18considerations in the moment of a trade.
13:20You might find it a little bit difficult
13:21to calculate everything. That's why I
13:22created the profit taking system
13:24blueprint. Free to download. I don't
13:26need anything from you. I just need your
13:27email so I can ship it to your inbox and
13:29it's free for you to use for the rest of
13:30your trading career. I'd encourage you
13:32to go grab that and continue on with
13:33this video. Okay, so getting into it,
13:35what is ATR? ATR is defined as average
13:37true range, average trading range, or
13:39simply it states on a specific time
13:41horizon, how much does price on average
13:43move? Now naturally this is going to
13:45have standard deviations. I like to
13:46think of it as a bell curve where you
13:48have a peak and this is a normal
13:49distribution. So let's say I'm trading
13:51Euro USD, very common pair. I know on
13:55the daily time frame the average
13:57movements in a single day, yes some days
13:59are going to be very flat. Maybe some
14:00days there's a doji indecision candle,
14:02but that's an outlier where that day
14:04might move only 10 pips or 5 pips.
14:06You're also going to have other days,
14:07maybe it's a news event, maybe a CPI,
14:09NFP, FOMC, where you're going to have a
14:11lot more volatility, a lot more
14:13movement, but that's not average, that's
14:14not normal, it's not everyday. So unless
14:16you are trading news strategies only for
14:18whatever reason, you're not expecting a
14:20100 pip day. So these are outliers, so I
14:23wouldn't consider the deviations either
14:24side of it. I want on the peak of the
14:26bell curve and optimize for this. Unless
14:29I'm specifically focusing on a strategy
14:31that looks for days with low volatility,
14:33don't know why you would, or you're
14:34trading only news which is risky for
14:36prop firms. A lot of prop firms don't
14:37even allow it, you might get slippage,
14:38you might get it totally wrong. So I
14:40don't I wouldn't encourage outlier
14:41trading anyway. You want to optimize for
14:43what something average moves. So if I
14:44know this is between 40 to 60 pips, peak
14:47is actually around 50 pips. I've tested
14:49this, I've measured it, you can check it
14:50yourself, it's very easy. There's a lot
14:51of tools, there's a lot of indicators or
14:52do it old fashion where you just count
14:54it with a measuring tool. Just look back
14:552 weeks. It's going to take you 5
14:57minutes and just see how big is each
14:58candle wick to wick. How big is each
14:59candle and you'll see you'll have some
15:01days which are 70, some days which are
15:0230, some days which are 20, but when you
15:04add it up for 2-3 weeks or a month, the
15:06more data the better, you'll realize the
15:08peak is around here. Anyway, whatever
15:09asset you trade, find out the peak. It
15:11takes you 5 minutes, you can do it with
15:12AI. Once you have that, does it make
15:14sense to be shooting for 100 pips as
15:16your TP, maybe even TP1? Knowing that a
15:18lot of days you get expansion, maybe you
15:21caught the trade, then you get
15:21consolidation, you maybe even get
15:23reversal, and then new factors can come
15:25in, new liquidity sweeps, new supply
15:27zones. There's a lot of reasons things
15:28can do something different based on the
15:30entry you got in, what may happen days
15:32following may revert. So, I wouldn't
15:34necessarily want to have my initial
15:36target to be something beyond normal
15:38movements. I want to optimize for
15:39something that is normal, that makes
15:41total logical sense. So, what I usually
15:42do is I break down the bell curve with
15:44average true range in mind of what all
15:46of my objectives are going to be. So,
15:48what I've typically done when I'm
15:50trading, let's say in that bearish
15:51scenario, right? You might think, well,
15:52perfect, I have a bearish trend, and I
15:54want to be trading the POIs that are
15:55bearish. Inside of every 4-hour trend,
15:58you will have internal trend of M15.
16:00Your M15 may look something like this.
16:02And then as you start to climb higher,
16:04you have your complex pullback, which is
16:05going to be internal bullish. This makes
16:08a high, could go on to continue the
16:09bearish low, fails to make a lower low,
16:11makes an internal high. You are now in
16:13the complex pullback. Where could that
16:15complex pullback go? Where it could go
16:16to the decisional, or it could go to the
16:18extreme. Just two simple market
16:20structure-based ideas. The extreme is
16:22the origination point of that bearish
16:24move. The decisional is where the break
16:26of structure happened. These sellers
16:27broke structure, therefore this is my
16:29decisional, this is my extreme. When I
16:32have these two areas in mind, what is
16:33the next logical thing to be doing? I
16:35want to be entering in zones where you
16:37expect rejections, where you expect
16:39sellers, and then you see the rejection
16:41at the right time. And then I don't know
16:42if this is going to be a whole trend, or
16:44if this is going to be a small bounce
16:46and continue the zone and then go lower.
16:48This could be a rejection, then go
16:50higher to my extreme, and then go lower.
16:52It could go up to my extreme and smoke
16:54it. It could just directly blow through
16:55the zone. And you start to see all these
16:56scenarios I'm presenting. You could
16:58sweep the decisional and go. You could
16:59sweep the decisional, give a reaction,
17:01then go to the extreme, then go lower.
17:03Notice how there is a variance on
17:04different scenarios. And you start to
17:06see, yes, one of them ended up bearish.
17:08Some of them were totally wrong. There's
17:10a zone in the middle where all road maps
17:13generally cross. These areas I call them
17:15inflection points. I don't want to be
17:17entering inflection points randomly. I
17:19want to be entering inflection point
17:20with confirmation. Makes a lot more
17:22sense because look at this variance. A
17:24few scenarios smoke through or end up
17:26bullish. A few scenarios make the full
17:28trend bearish on the daily time frame
17:30after certain amount of weeks, but most
17:32of them are going to be bouncing around
17:33here. If you're an intraday trader and
17:36you're trading supply zones, you're
17:37trading liquidity, how many shots can
17:38you get at catching these portions?
17:40There's going to be plenty of
17:41opportunities in this window from
17:43premium to high. From that premium to
17:45high, let's say that's a 50 pip zone.
17:47You might get the entry on the
17:48decisional with a rejection. You might
17:49get the sweep of the decisional
17:51rejection. You might get the sweep, you
17:52miss it, you get the smart money trap
17:54and then you take it. You come into the
17:55extreme, you get the rejection, sweep of
17:57the extreme rejection. So, you might get
17:58four or five or six opportunities and
18:00you're still in the pockets of
18:01probability. This is why I talk about
18:03scheme because there's going to be
18:05certain areas in the markets where price
18:06is going to give a lot of volatility, a
18:08lot of rejections. And once price is
18:10already flowing, once it's already on
18:11the way to the target, there's no point
18:13entering here after you've already made
18:14the low because it might revert, it
18:16might continue lower. You don't know.
18:17This is an inflection point without
18:19expectancy because you don't have the
18:21confirmation. So, it makes sense to be
18:22entering in these areas. Now, this is
18:24something you're already doing. So,
18:25you're already trading in the right
18:26areas because you're trading market
18:28impact, you're trading session
18:29reactions. But if that's the way you are
18:30trading sweeps, liquidity, supply and
18:32demand, internal trends, you're in the
18:34right areas, you've got the right
18:35entries probably, you've got the right
18:37stop losses, but what's the point of
18:38shooting for the daily low? What's the
18:40point of shooting for liquidity pool
18:42that maybe down here? What's the point
18:43of shooting for a trend line over here
18:46that might be very far away from this
18:47because you've got to consider what is
18:48my average true range. How much does
18:50price move on average in a London
18:52session? How much does price move on
18:53average in a New York session? How much
18:55does price move on average in the key
18:56time window, the first hour? How much
18:58does price move by the end of the day,
19:00by the end of the week? When you know
19:01these data points, then you're not just
19:03shooting for, "Oh, I'm bearish, I'm
19:04shooting for a lower low." Or I'm
19:05waiting for the M15 trend. What is that
19:07based on? That's based on hope. I'm
19:09predicting, I'm projecting, I'm thinking
19:11price is going to go there, because it
19:12should based on technical analysis. But
19:14again, that's going to be a bell curve.
19:16So let's break that down. So profit
19:17taking systems, as we discussed at the
19:19beginning, this is the best way to lift
19:20your profitability without changing your
19:22strategy, without changing your entry
19:24stop loss placement. This is one of the
19:25systems of many systems we have inside
19:28of our community. Now, let me tell you
19:29very quickly about it before we continue
19:31on. Number one, inside of our community,
19:32we have over 11 million dollars of
19:34tracked earnings. People like Maria
19:36who's made over $65,000 in just the last
19:382 months. People like Brooke who's made
19:40over $20,000. People like Yasin who's
19:42made over $21,000 in his first month
19:45with us. The average stats to get a
19:47second payout in the industry is 0.04%.
19:51In our community, the odds of getting a
19:52second payout is over 40%. And this is
19:55not after 6 years, this is within 6
19:57months from starting to the 6-month
19:59program to get a second payout. In fact,
20:01our average win is less than 100 days.
20:04These stats that we have inside of our
20:05community that are beating the odds in
20:07the industry where we have plenty of
20:08students to reach over a million dollars
20:10in funding like Levi, like Brooke, like
20:12Maria. I could list them on and on. We
20:14hold your hand and walk you through the
20:15entire process, which means you'll have
20:17one-on-one coaching, one-on-one
20:19guidance, daily live streams before
20:20London session, before New York session.
20:22We hop on a live stream and that's going
20:23to be preparing you for the day every
20:25single day. Telling you where the traps
20:27is, where the direction is, what could
20:28the entry be. Live streams, daily
20:30classes with webinars to make sure the
20:32theory is being applied correctly to
20:34day-to-day nuance in the market, weekly
20:36Q&A calls. In fact, 24 hours a day
20:38around the clock, the average reply time
20:40is less than an hour, because we
20:41realized this is what it takes to make
20:43people profitable, not just a
20:45pre-recorded course. It's by application
20:46only, because we can't do one-on-one
20:48calls with thousands of people. So it's
20:50going to be a small intimate environment
20:51for people that are focused. If you're
20:53interested in that, I'd encourage you to
20:54click the link in the description to
20:55apply and hopefully see you on the other
20:57side. Like the bell curve we spoke about
20:59previously, where there's going to be a
21:01distribution of outcome. Some are going
21:02to be very fast, some are going to be
21:03less. When you are thinking about a
21:05position you've got into, you're going
21:06to have a natural bell curve from those
21:08inflection points. Yes, some of them may
21:10complete a daily trend. Yes, a lot of
21:12them may fail. Your job is to cut it
21:14here and cut it here, which means you
21:16don't want to be trying to capture this
21:18piece. Yes, this has a higher risk
21:20reward. You might do a 1% risk per trade
21:22and if you take the full target on the
21:23daily time frame, you might get 30%
21:25gain. You got a 1 to 30 risk reward.
21:28That's crazy. Why wouldn't you take
21:30that? Well, think about it. Let's say
21:31you've taken a trade based on a
21:33rejection over here, you enter perfect,
21:34you're in the trade. Now your stop loss
21:35is there. I know this area over here
21:37from my entry to my stop loss, this is
21:39my risk. I've done 1% risk. Right here
21:41is minus 1R. Right here is obviously my
21:44entry, it's zero. And as you go further
21:46and further, you're getting greater and
21:48greater risk reward. And the logic may
21:50be, well, why not just get the highest
21:51risk reward? At the 1 to 1, 1 to 2, 1 to
21:533, 1 to 4, 1 to 5, 1 to 6, 1 to 7. So
21:56you may think, well, if I have a 1 to 7
21:58risk reward profile, then I only need to
22:00have a little bit of a win rate, 10 20%
22:03win rate and I'm going to make a lot of
22:04money. But if I have a 1 to 1 risk
22:06reward or a negative risk reward, then I
22:08need to have 80 or 90% win rate to
22:10actually make money. So you say, okay,
22:11the risk reward that I can get, the
22:13higher the risk reward I can get
22:14compensates for my win rate. Then you
22:16start juggling things, you say, do I
22:18have a high win rate? Do I have a high
22:19risk reward? But you're not trading what
22:21the market gives. You're not trading
22:22average movements, average volatility.
22:24So now you're saying, I want a 1 to 7
22:27based on what? Is that based on data? Is
22:29that based on what price is likely to
22:30do? Or is that based on what you would
22:31hope to happen? If you're doing this,
22:33you're just hoping for outliers, which
22:35price might not actually do. Maybe you
22:37get lucky those few outliers, remember
22:38the variance, some scenarios do end up
22:40at the final target. A lot of them
22:42don't. Most of them give a short
22:44reaction, that's where the probability
22:46skew is. But most importantly, track the
22:48trade with me. I'm in the trade now,
22:50perfect. So up forget all the scenarios
22:52where I say it could go up, it could go
22:53down, you know, it could go to 1 to 3
22:55and then reverse, it could go to 1 to 4
22:56reverse, it could go shy of 1 to 2 and
22:58then reverse. There's plenty of
22:59scenarios, there's plenty of outcomes.
23:00That's the mess we drew. You could have
23:02one going lower, one straight to stop
23:03loss, one hanging around your entry
23:05pages and going lower, one going all the
23:06way to seven and then There's plenty of
23:08outcome variance. That's not what I'm
23:10focusing on. Think about the risk to
23:11reward. As price goes into your target,
23:14perfect. You got a one to seven. But
23:16think about it, when you are here, when
23:17you're sitting at your one to five risk
23:19reward mark, are you willing or is it
23:21sensible to forego 5% five R of
23:24unrealized profit? You entered here, you
23:26are now floating five R in profit. So,
23:28you got potentially 5% to gain, you
23:31haven't locked it in yet, to try and
23:32achieve 7%. That is a plus 2% for a
23:36potential minus 5% if it goes back to
23:38break even. Is that favorable? Am I
23:40willing to risk 5% to make 2%? No,
23:43that's a negative risk reward. At least
23:45it should be five to five for a one to
23:46one, or five to 10 to make sense. But
23:49then, the more you go in profit in terms
23:51of risk reward, this flips from positive
23:53risk reward to continue the trade, to
23:55neutral risk reward to continue the
23:57trade, and then negative risk reward as
23:59you go further and further. So, if you
24:00are shooting for the one to 30s, does it
24:02make sense that you had a scenario where
24:04it went to one to 20 and then went back
24:06to break even? This is a bigger cost,
24:08plus 20% going back to break even,
24:10that's minus 20% in unrealized profit.
24:13Yes, it's not a loss. Yes, you didn't
24:15lose any of your capital, but you lost
24:17your equity, your floating P&L. This is
24:19not sensible. This is money on the table
24:21and you should not just shoot for this
24:22and then when you get it, you say,
24:23"Perfect, I got it." And all the times
24:25it was break even, you say, "Well, it
24:26doesn't matter because at least I didn't
24:28lose money." Well, what about this
24:29deficit of unrealized profit? This is
24:32something that a profitable trader would
24:34focus on because you could actually be a
24:35profitable trader right now. You're just
24:36taking profit in the wrong place and
24:38you're not taking the delta that you
24:39should be taking because you're shooting
24:41too far or cutting too early and you're
24:43not in the optimal window. So, let's
24:45talk about what the optimal window looks
24:46like for you cuz now we understand why
24:48we need to do it in the first place, why
24:50you even need to take a partial. And
24:51then I'll show you where to take it
24:52because you could just say one to 30
24:54because that's the daily low. I follow
24:55my plan, I follow market structure and
24:57even if it's an outlier in my variance,
24:59I accept it. Sure, you're not optimizing
25:01for your rate of return. Now, those
25:02fewer scenarios where price reaches your
25:04final target, you got a home run. You
25:06got a great trade, but all the time
25:07wasted, think of your opportunity cost.
25:09Think about the times it didn't reach
25:10targets, and now you are wasting time in
25:12the evaluation stage. Your time is
25:14valuable. Don't waste it floating in
25:16trades aimlessly.
25:18So, think about it like this. This is
25:20going to be the last demonstration to
25:21explain to you why it's important to be
25:24taking profit in shorter time horizons.
25:26Let's say price is at 1.00, round
25:28number, whatever, EUR/USD, and we see
25:30price at 1.000.
25:32Where could price go? It could go to
25:341.1. It could go to 0.9. So, there is
25:38outcomes that could happen in price, but
25:39what's the likelihood of price going
25:41there? Again, you could have a few
25:42scenarios that go straight to it, but
25:44most of the time you're going to in the
25:45distribution or the variance, most of
25:47the time the markets are consolidating.
25:50Unless you're in equities, unless you're
25:51in something that has a baked-in
25:52appreciation, currency, a lot of futures
25:54markets, they are baked in
25:56consolidations on a higher time frame.
25:58It's not something like EUR/USD that
25:59fluctuates from zero to a million or
26:00infinity, right? You have a general
26:03range on a daily or 4-hour of
26:04consolidation. So, already we're
26:06thinking, pockets of probability is
26:08around the ordinary variance. So, that's
26:10where I need to be focusing. And then I
26:11bring in the fact that if I'm a scalper
26:13or an intraday trader, I'm not even
26:14focusing on my outliers, let alone the
26:16fact that it's not even worth it in
26:18terms of expectancy, unless you are
26:19trading fundamentals, geopolitics, and
26:21you know, this is going to be more
26:22likely this one scenario than the 100
26:25scenarios around the consolidation. If
26:27you know that, that's your edge. Okay,
26:28then trade that accordingly. But as we
26:29spoke about previously in a bearish
26:31market, you have your supply zone, and
26:33then in that supply zone you're looking
26:34for rejection, perfect. When you've got
26:36into this area, remember, we have plenty
26:38of scenarios. Price can go up, price can
26:40reject and go up, price can come in,
26:41sweep the high, and then go lower, price
26:43can immediately reject the low, price
26:45can give a bounce, sweep that local
26:47high, go lower. There's many ways price
26:49could react. Some of Some of random,
26:50some of them you can't trade, some of
26:52them are going to be part of your plan.
26:53Some of them maybe are not expected, but
26:56generally where is the reaction
26:57probability and generally where does
26:59price go after that reaction? So, this
27:00is where you've got to bring in themes.
27:02Because what I can tell you with just
27:03probability, if the market comes to a
27:05large POI, let's say it's a 50 pip POI.
27:08In a 50 pip POI, the first break of
27:10structure and rejection is unlikely to
27:13be the one that makes the low. It's just
27:14unlikely. You will likely get a
27:16reaction, but unlikely to get the low.
27:18When price comes to the extreme of a
27:20POI, the likely of getting a reaction is
27:22high. The likely of getting the full
27:24move is a little bit higher. So, we've
27:25already improved the odds. The
27:27likelihood of price inducing the zone,
27:29taking liquidity, and then giving a
27:30reaction, very, very, very high. The
27:33whole move, we don't know, but slightly
27:34more positive. The idea of price coming
27:36into a zone, giving a rejection,
27:38inviting in early sellers stop losses in
27:40this area, then sweeping that, but
27:42maintaining the POI. This is an internal
27:45inducement, not a medium, not a major,
27:47an internal inducement. Could be minor,
27:48could be Asia high, could be high
27:50yesterday. But that again has a high
27:52probability of a reaction. Making the
27:53low overall, we don't know. So, we
27:55realize there are pockets where it's
27:57more likely to be entering and more
27:59certain to get a small reaction. That's
28:01what you're focusing on. Because why
28:03would I try and catch the whole move
28:04once when I can get a good risk reward,
28:06a one to three, in probable pockets?
28:08Because you have to realize in a bearish
28:10move from high to low, there's not going
28:12to just be one straight line. It's going
28:14to be ups and downs, retracements and
28:16continuations, consolidations and
28:18sweeps. Price does not move in a
28:19straight line. So, we know in that area,
28:21from price going from supply zone to new
28:23lower low, there's going to be various
28:25scenarios which we've demonstrated and
28:27visualized now together. But we've got
28:28to realize, why would I try and catch
28:30from entry to low, one move, when I can
28:32actually understand that price is going
28:34to do all kinds of things? I might miss
28:35some of them. It might retrace and take
28:37me out, but eventually we end up in the
28:39right area. And my job is to just catch
28:41the pocket. Stop pocket. Catch that
28:43pocket. Maybe catch this pocket. And the
28:45rest I don't need. But if I can catch
28:47the whole move and get a one to five
28:49risk reward, or I catch a 3% one to
28:51three risk reward here, a 3% one to risk
28:53reward over here, a 3% one to three risk
28:55reward over here, I can yield more from
28:58the same trade. I can have precision
29:00because I'm timing the markets. I'm not
29:02focusing on direction, I'm focusing on
29:03timing entry and profit taking system.
29:05And in the same duration, maybe this all
29:07took the same amount of time, I was able
29:09to get a greater rate of return whilst
29:11maintaining a good win rate, whilst
29:13maintaining average risk reward instead
29:14of shooting for the moon. That's why I
29:16prefer doing this type of profit taking
29:18system or this type of strategy for prop
29:19firms because you can get through
29:20accounts faster. You can pass your phase
29:22one faster, get the payout faster. Once
29:24you got a payout, get your second payout
29:25faster. You're not relying on one big
29:27theme, one big play to play out, and
29:29maybe not even capitalizing on a one to
29:3130, let's say. If you're sensible,
29:32you're trimming it along the way. The
29:34one to five, you take something. At the
29:35one to 10, you take something. So by the
29:37time this is sitting at one to 30 risk
29:39reward, maybe you took 50% of volume
29:41over here, 25% of volume, 25% of volume,
29:435% of volume. Maybe by the time you
29:46reach the one to 30, you only had 10% of
29:48your position. So if you risked $1,000,
29:50you didn't make $30,000 because you only
29:52kept 10% of the volume. So that means
29:54you only took $3,000. So what's the
29:56point of trying to capture $3,000
29:59finally if it reaches targets when you
30:01can do 3,000, 3,000, 3,000. That's my
30:03question to you. So the best way, now
30:05we've understood the zones to be
30:06entering, we know the variance of
30:08outcomes, we know the ATR, the
30:10volatility, the pockets of probability.
30:12Once we have all of that baked in, that
30:14should be something you've already done,
30:15by the way. This is pre-work that every
30:16sensible prop firm trader has already
30:18done. And again, that means you can
30:19focus on volatile assets as opposed
30:21trying to trade the whole market, 100
30:23currency pairs. You're trading futures,
30:24you're trading cryptocurrencies to find
30:26these high probability trades, to find
30:28these geopolitical factors with
30:29fundamentals baked in. You're going to
30:30have to be scattered all over the
30:31market, and you could be right today,
30:33Trump could tweet, and you could be
30:35wrong tomorrow. Things can change very
30:37fast in this world, so we don't want to
30:38be just trading long-term horizons.
30:40That's for investing, not for growing
30:41capital fast. The last thing I'll leave
30:43you with is the bell curves related to
30:45ATR. If you are trading high probability
30:48reaction points, supply zones, demand
30:50areas, premiums, discounts, these zones
30:52where price is likely to reject and
30:54reverse, and then you're doing it at a
30:55market open. So, supply zones,
30:57likelihood price is going to reject.
30:59Time. If you're trading a market open, a
31:01London open, you're more likely to
31:02reject and have a move, a volatile move.
31:05If you're trading inducements, you're
31:07likely to have a high volatility
31:09reaction at the time, momentum. Right
31:11zone leads to rejection. If you're
31:13trading confirmations, let's say a M1
31:15break of structure rejection, that means
31:16you are timing it, and the likelihood of
31:18having immediate reaction known as
31:19market impact is very high. You
31:21collaborate these things, this
31:22confluence of events, and all of a
31:24sudden you are likely to have two peaks.
31:26So, my average daily range for EUR/USD,
31:29let's say it's 50 pips. That's how much
31:30it moves on average. Some days it might
31:33move 20, some days it might move 70, but
31:35generally it's going to be a bell curve
31:37like this. Already I want to cut the
31:39tails. So, I want to be focusing where
31:41majority of the movement is going to be.
31:43Now, one thing you could do, which is a
31:45step in the right direction, is say
31:46anything that is a target in terms of
31:48structure, in terms of liquidity, any
31:51price action-based targets that you may
31:52have. Maybe you're entering a sell on a
31:54POI like this, and then before that sell
31:56you have this local level of support,
31:58that liquidity pool. You get into the
31:59trade, you're selling now, and you say,
32:01"I'm going to target this liquidity
32:02pool." Perfect. You can be your trade
32:04range from here to here, that was to
32:06your liquidity pool, and as long as that
32:07lands around 50 pips, okay, makes sense.
32:10If you have a trend line to target, a
32:11liquidity pool, a lower low to target,
32:14so you have a break of structure, as
32:15long as around your 50 pips, that's
32:17sensible because you're matching your
32:19average probability of price movement in
32:21a day with a technical point that price
32:23could come to. Now, we know in this area
32:24price could reject. It's maybe a demand
32:26area. Maybe after taking the liquidity,
32:28you draw in buyers and then reject. You
32:30may There's plenty of scenarios that can
32:32happen, but you're baking that out of it
32:34because you're trading average
32:35probability of price movements in a day.
32:37So, that's one peak of the bell curve
32:38that makes sense to focus on. But again,
32:40if you're trading intraday,
32:41intrasession, if you're mastering the M1
32:43timeframe, likelihood is you're going to
32:45have a five pip stop loss, 10 pip stop
32:48loss. If you're trading more than 15
32:50pips of a stop loss, if you're trading
32:51intraday, you're trading market open,
32:52you're trading inducements, you're
32:53trading rejections, you don't need a 40
32:55pip stop loss, and you don't need to
32:57have the buffer to allow price to
32:58breathe because lower timeframe is
32:59noise. These are all myths. These work
33:01for swing traders cuz you're trading a
33:02theme. You think the geopolitics is
33:04saying price is going to go that way. I
33:05don't know when, I don't know how, but
33:07it should. So, I'm going to just give it
33:08space. Okay, that's a different system.
33:10But if you're trading prop firms and
33:11you're trading rejections like these,
33:13you'll have a three to 15 pip stop loss.
33:15With a three to 15 pip stop loss, that
33:17means with a 50 pip target, that means
33:19on an average day you're going to have a
33:21one to 16 or one to three risk reward
33:23based on your stop loss size. 15 pips or
33:25three pips. Three pip stop loss, one to
33:2616. And if you have 15 pips stop loss,
33:28you're going to get a one to three risk
33:30reward. These are healthy risk reward
33:31profiles. I don't think you should have
33:3215 pip stop loss. I personally do three
33:34to seven. Actually, a lot of the times I
33:36most likely do three to five. My optimal
33:39is four to five. That's usually my sweet
33:41spot majority of my trades. That means
33:42on an average day if I got the direction
33:44right, if I'm trading average movements
33:46of a day, I can get my one to 10 by the
33:48end of the day. But remember that thing
33:49I told you earlier, does it make sense
33:50for me to just hold the trade to one to
33:5210? Because what if it goes to one to
33:54nine? I'm up 9% and then it reverses,
33:56goes to break even. Okay, I didn't lose
33:58money, but I lost a potential gain of
34:009%. This is inefficient. So, then you
34:02need to have a place take a partial. To
34:04take in a partial, you could say, "Well,
34:06an earlier trend line, an earlier
34:07liquidity pool, maybe a five-minute
34:09break of structure." Again, you're
34:10aiming for something, it's in the right
34:12direction, but why not trade it based on
34:14average movements? Some days may be
34:16more, some days may be less. But again,
34:18I don't know what today is going to be.
34:20And if I'm trading time of day, if I'm
34:22trading inducements, I know already I'm
34:23going to have a volatile movement. But
34:25remember, 50 pips is the average
34:26movement from market open to market
34:28close. Let's say from London open to New
34:30York close, the full day. That's hours
34:33and hours and hours. You don't enter on
34:34the market open on the minutes and you
34:36don't close your trade at the end. So,
34:37that 50 pips, you're not catching all of
34:39it even in a good scenario, which means
34:41let's say I've entered a trade based on
34:42this supply zone. That's the reason I
34:44got in. I get into this trade. I take a
34:47initial rejection. I see that liquidity.
34:49I take that rejection and I say perfect,
34:50I'm in this trade. Now, I could say
34:52price is rejected, but I didn't get my
34:53entry, consolidated, and now I've got
34:56this build up and it comes to New York
34:57session. I see the sweep on New York.
34:59It's my New York key time window. I get
35:00the M1 break of structure. Now I'm in.
35:02So, let's say my entry ends up being
35:03here. The move started here for the day.
35:06So, from here to here, from London high
35:08to New York inducement, New York key
35:09time window rejection, price may have
35:11already moved 20 pips. But if the
35:13average movement is 50 pips and I've
35:14already taken 20 pips of movement, that
35:16means the average move from high to the
35:18end of the day being 50 pips. Perfect,
35:20the move of the day is still going to be
35:21average 50 pips. It might be more
35:23because you've taken a inducement. If
35:25you'd have a structural inducement,
35:26maybe even higher. So, bring that into
35:28consideration. But if you know on
35:29average is 50 pips, but I've already
35:31eaten up 20 pips, that means my trade
35:33potential realistically is not going to
35:34be more than 30. Some days might be
35:36more, some days might be less, but the
35:38average, the peak of the bell curve is
35:40going to be around 50 pips for the day,
35:41which means 30 pips are left for you.
35:43So, does it make sense to have a trade
35:45targeting this low at 100 pips? Does it
35:47make sense to have a trade based on
35:48anything else apart from probability of
35:50outcomes? You don't know what's going to
35:51happen. So, what I've decided to do in
35:53my trading system is based on where I've
35:55entered. If I've entered at the top of
35:57the day, at the beginning of the day at
35:59London open, then I know I have more
36:00potential for the day cuz I know price
36:02has basically most of that 50 pips left.
36:04But if I'm entering at London close,
36:06price has already moved 35 pips, then I
36:08only have 15 pips left of juice on
36:10average, and then there's no point me
36:11shooting for 1 to 10 and another 50
36:13pips. It doesn't usually happen. So,
36:15then I consider the second bell curve,
36:17which is going to be how much does price
36:18move on average in a key time window?
36:20The first couple of hours of volatility
36:23around a market open with an inducement.
36:26And I found over testing, it's very easy
36:27to You can do it manually, you can do it
36:29AI, you can build out your own
36:30indicator. I mean, the indicator that I
36:32give away for free in the description,
36:34you'll find it. It does it for you. The
36:35average pip count of average key time
36:37window opens is something like this as
36:38well. The first hour, the first 90
36:41minutes of a key time window, yes, some
36:43of them may only move a couple of pips.
36:44Yes, sometimes you might get a 30-40 pip
36:46move. Generally speaking, the peak of
36:48the bell curve is going to be 15 pips.
36:5015 pips is the average movement for the
36:52first hour after an inducement at the
36:54right time. Yes, you have outliers, but
36:56your job is not to focus on outliers.
36:58You want to focus on the majority of
36:59time. So, therefore, if I realize the
37:01peak for me is between 13, 15, 17 pips,
37:05then I realize most probability of
37:07taking a partial is around here. Now,
37:09let's do the math together. My average
37:10stop loss is going to be 4/5, maybe even
37:13three pips. Three, four, or five pips.
37:15Then, I would think, "Okay, well, the
37:17best place for me to take a partial if I
37:18have a three-pip stop loss is going to
37:20be 15 pips. That's 1:5. That's quite a
37:22high risk-reward for a first partial.
37:23That means sometimes I might be 4% up
37:25and it goes to break even. I don't want
37:27that loss. So, now I think, "Okay,
37:29where's the best place for me to take
37:30profit? If I have a four-pip stop loss
37:31and I'm taking at 15 pips, again, it's
37:33just shy of a 1:4 risk-reward. So, or
37:35just a little bit higher, 1.45 or
37:37something like that. So, again, that's
37:38pretty high. My opportunity cost of
37:40price reversing on me is pretty large.
37:42So, what I realized for me, I can either
37:44have a fixed pip count TP, so I can just
37:46say, "If I've entered from the high of
37:48the day and I still have most of the key
37:50time window left, the volatility of that
37:51key time window, I know on average it
37:53moves 15 pips. I've consumed five pips.
37:55Okay, shoot for another 10." You're
37:56taking the average movement and you take
37:58a partial. And then, whatever you have
37:59left for the average daily movement,
38:00take that as your full TP. You don't
38:02have to hold it overnight, you don't
38:03have to wait for new conditions. You're
38:04banking in good risk-reward based on
38:06average movement because we know
38:07variance has a skew, you're maximizing
38:10it for the peaks. Or you can do it the
38:11risk-reward profile way, which is what I
38:13do, which means I've averaged out
38:15between three, four, and five pips, what
38:16is my average stop loss size? Sometimes
38:18higher, sometimes lower, but what's the
38:20average? And then I've baked it into
38:22what is the average movement from where
38:23I'm trading. Not from high of the day to
38:25end of the day. From usually where my
38:27entry is and how much juice is left by
38:29the end of the key time window, by the
38:31end of the day. Because I'm not often
38:32entering at the top of the day and
38:34trading it to the low. I'm seeing price
38:36reject, I'm getting my confirmations,
38:37and maybe I enter here. Price has
38:39already moved a bit, so I minus that
38:41from my range and I say whatever juice
38:43is left. And then I realize the peak for
38:45me, test it for yourself, but this is
38:47the best way to be taking profits. For
38:48me, it's at around 15 pips of juice left
38:51around 50 pips of juice left. If I'm
38:53entering a little bit late, that juice
38:54squeezes out. So I found based on my
38:56stop loss size, the best risk reward
38:58profile for me is 1:3 risk reward. Take
39:01a partial, 50% volume. So if I'm taking
39:03$1,000 risk and it's a 1:3, I've now got
39:05$3,000. I don't take $3,000, I take
39:08half, 50%. So I lock in 1.5 R, which is
39:121.5 K with 1% risk. And then the
39:14remaining volume, I'll take at the
39:16average daily range, which is around
39:171:10 for me, which means the remaining
39:19volume I lock in, which is going to be
39:21another 5 R, which is going to be with
39:23$1,000 risk, it's going to be $5,000. So
39:26by the end of the day, if I have a trade
39:28that I've timed well, if I trade based
39:30on inducement rejection, and I'm trading
39:32average movement of an average day, a
39:34trade profile for me looks something
39:36like this. Losing trade minus 1%. Break
39:39even day, 0%. Winning day for TP1, 1:3
39:43risk reward. That means 1.5%
39:47assuming 1% risk. Because a 1:3 risk
39:49reward I take 50%. 50% of 3 is 1.5. Does
39:53my 1.5% Sometimes it ends there. The
39:55remaining volume goes to break even.
39:57Maybe goes to 1:5, 1:4, 1:7, and
39:59reverses on me. I have an opportunity
40:01cost there. But I don't want to focus on
40:02the outliers. I'm focusing on the peak,
40:04which is going to be for me at 1:10 risk
40:06reward, which means I lock in the
40:08remaining 50%. Half of 10 is 5, so I
40:10lock in another 5%. A winning day where
40:13I hit TP2, that's going to be 5% plus my
40:15TP1, which I already locked in, which
40:17means a full TP day for me is 6.5%
40:206.5 R 5% from here, 1.5% from here. So,
40:24these are my static outcomes. I either
40:26lose 1%, I either break even, I either
40:28lock in 1.5% or 6.5%. This now becomes
40:32static features in my equity curve, and
40:35now I can see if my trajectory is
40:36following my expectancy or if I'm
40:38deviating away, and that's going to
40:39control what kind of setups I take. But,
40:41the main thing is you're not guessing,
40:43you're not predicting, you're not hoping
40:44for break of structure, you're not
40:45hoping for a daily trend. You are
40:46maximizing for what the market gives
40:48you, most probably, and that's the best
40:50way to be optimizing your profit taking
40:51systems. If you're a scalper, but
40:53remember the key thing is focus on the
40:54strategy, because once you have the
40:56entry and the stop loss, the profit
40:57taking system is very easy. Magic is in
40:59the context, trading at the right time,
41:01trading at the right place, and if you
41:02click tagged video right now, it's going
41:04to take you to one of my full guides
41:06where I'm teaching you my entire
41:07strategy. That's for you to walk away
41:09with. Now, you know the profit taking
41:10system, go learn the entry. But,
41:11remember as always, a restricted trader
41:14is a profitable trader.

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