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Top 10 NFL Player Props Picks for Week 6 | Prop Bets & TD Scorers (2026) — Transcript

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0:00What's up friends and welcome into
0:01Betting Pros. This is the week six
0:03[music] prop show.
0:05I am The Welsh. That is Erickson and we
0:06are back. We are back. Last week
0:08>> [music]
0:08>> you had the wonderful Joe Madden and the
0:11great and powerful Scott Bogman as both
0:13Erickson and I were back.
0:15We are back into our home. This This is
0:19our home base, if you will. And we've
0:21got 10 props that we are going to be
0:23talking to you about for week six. We're
0:26going to be going through our touchdown
0:27calls, everything in between.
0:29Unfortunately, Erickson, your favorite
0:31bet last week was
0:33I don't know, like inspired a little bit
0:36by you being in the same destination
0:38that Christian McCaffrey got married and
0:41you were there for a wedding and the
0:42over in the reception seems like it
0:43should have hit. Even though you weren't
0:44on the show, this is the one you were
0:45giving out on like, you know, the primer
0:47everything like that. Didn't hit, but
0:48we're ready to cash them this week. You
0:50feel You feel the prop gods just didn't
0:53have enough love for, I don't know,
0:55wedding wedding signs? It feels like
0:57that that should have played.
0:58>> Yeah, I know. I was feeling the good
1:00vibes with Christian McCaffrey. Now, I
1:02did go three and two overall with my
1:04props on the official plays that I
1:06played last week on the Betting Pros
1:08primer. However, the last two weeks have
1:11kind of been meh for me in props, three
1:13and two both weeks, but that's because
1:14I've been better at sides and totals,
1:16right? So, that's kind of usually the
1:18case is when one of them is doing well,
1:20the other one does worse and vice versa.
1:22So, looking to get closer to four and
1:24one in the props. Maybe maybe one of us
1:27can get a five and oh perfect week.
1:28>> I I I need to get a four and one. I
1:30don't have a four and one week. I've got
1:31two two and threes and two three and
1:34twos, I believe. Believe two weeks ago
1:36when we were on the show, I went two and
1:38three. I think you went three and two,
1:40if I'm remembering correctly. And I want
1:42to be better and I want us to get one of
1:44those five and ohs. Last week, if we
1:46want to take a look at the updates for
1:48at least Bogman and Joe,
1:50they Bogman was two and three, Joe
1:52Madden three and two. So, very nice.
1:54They put some good plays in there for
1:55you guys. On the year,
1:58uh Erickson is 10 and 5, I am 8 and 7.
2:00We are still over 500 if those numbers
2:03seem to be correct. I feel like maybe I
2:04Did I miss Did I miss a week in there?
2:06Does that sound right?
2:07>> No, that sounds right.
2:08>> 5 10 15 I I feel like I I don't know.
2:10For some reason the math does I feel
2:11like I think I might not have added up.
2:13Now that I'm thinking about it, I think
2:14that would be I would be 10 and 10.
2:16Maybe I didn't add up the week that we
2:18were before and you would be 13 and 7.
2:21Okay, so live update there. You are 13
2:23and 7. I am 10 and 10. Got to keep it
2:26over 500. Uh couple touchdown calls,
2:29you're still positive ROI on your
2:30touchdowns. I am not. We will try to
2:33rectify that this week and we will play
2:35some first touchdowns at the end of the
2:36show. So we got a lot for you as we're
2:38going to be playing touchdowns, first
2:39touchdown. We unfortunately, the last
2:42thing before we get into this,
2:44we can't roll over Jahmyr Gibbs, but
2:46what we can tell you is Jahmyr Gibbs has
2:49hit five straight weeks. Every single
2:53week, as Erickson has been doing and
2:55it's my favorite thing we're doing right
2:56now, is you've been you bet one unit and
2:59then you take the winnings, you bet
3:00another and you've done it for five
3:01straight weeks. He's on a bye. He says
3:03he wants to beat LaDainian Tomlinson's
3:05uh touchdown record going into week
3:07seven. Can you give us an update of what
3:10that's going to look like? What is the
3:12you What units are we Are we like at
3:14four? Are we at four five units that
3:16will be placed next week?
3:18>> I think it's four and a half. It's
3:20either four and a half or five units. I
3:22think is the amount that we're wagering
3:24on Jahmyr Gibbs anytime touchdown. It's
3:26actually really sad that the Lions are
3:27on a bye week because basically that's
3:30been the fuel to my anytime touchdown
3:32success. It's Jahmyr Gibbs scoring
3:33touchdowns and then picking players that
3:35are facing the Lions to score
3:37touchdowns. Like That basically has been
3:39like the entire portfolio of touchdowns
3:42in the prop show through the first five
3:44weeks of the NFL season.
3:46>> LaDainian Tomlinson has scored more ti-
3:48I'm sorry, not LaDainian. That was in my
3:50brain. Jahmyr Gibbs has scored more
3:52touchdowns than we have correctly picked
3:55so far this season. He has scored more
3:58than you and I have had correct picks.
4:00So, I I'm sad because I actually also
4:02get a text. My My We have a lot going on
4:04everything like that. If If there's a
4:06really good better something Ericson
4:07Ericson will text me on Sunday, but I
4:10get a Sunday text as soon as Jahmyr
4:13Gibbs scores a touchdown. That's a
4:14guarantee. So, I'm just You're going to
4:16have to find something else to text me
4:17about. Maybe we'll have like one of our
4:19crazy ones here.
4:20>> But I get a guaranteed Sunday text from
4:22Ericson. Jahmyr Gibbs or LFG or
4:24something along those lines. So,
4:26>> I sent you the one that was I think two
4:28weeks ago I sent you the DJ Khaled
4:30>> Yeah, yeah. Another one. Yeah, exactly.
4:32[laughter] We're having fun We're having
4:33just a lot of fun with it. We can't do
4:34it this week, but at least next week
4:36we'll roll into it. So, we'll remind you
4:37guys what that looks like. So, we got
4:39the Jahmyr Gibbs roll. We got our big
4:42board. Bogman and Joe Madden doing us
4:44right. Let's see what we're going to be
4:45playing for this week. And let's jump
4:47into our props for week six. We got 10
4:50of them. And Ericson, why don't you kick
4:52us off with a quarterback prop? And this
4:54is actually one that I played two weeks
4:56ago and I cashed. I think. At least I
4:58played this player on an under. I think
5:01it might have been completions. You're
5:02going to play pass attempts for who?
5:04>> Yep. For Michael Penix Jr., Falcons
5:07quarterback going to go under 31 and 1/2
5:09pass attempts. So, this is a five-star
5:11bet on the Betting Pros Prop Bet Cheat
5:13Sheet. Five-star NFL props right now are
5:16up over 25 units so far this season. The
5:20Prop Bet Cheat Sheet has been spot-on
5:22over the last several years when it
5:23comes to pass attempts. So, that's
5:24always one of the markets I look like
5:26for when I'm looking for some of these
5:28props for the weekly show. So, with
5:31Penix, I think it's really interesting
5:32case to take the under with him. You
5:35look at the Falcons and how they operate
5:36on offense. They are a run-first
5:38offense. They are 30th in pass rate over
5:41expectation, which means they have the
5:42third highest run rate in those types of
5:45game scripts. So, he's only gone over
5:47this number in one time in his last five
5:50games played. He had 32 attempts last
5:53week in that overtime game against the
5:54Falcons, or excuse me, against the
5:56Ravens. Now, obviously, he didn't play
5:58in the overtime period, but still it was
6:00a back-and-forth type of game. The first
6:02two games of the season that he played
6:03just average 22.5 pass attempts. And the
6:06big thing that kind of makes it a little
6:09bit more of a confident bet here is the
6:11Bears matchup. So, the Bears have faced
6:14the total lowest passing attempts this
6:16season at 26 per game to opposing
6:18defenses. Only one quarterback the Bears
6:20have faced this year has actually
6:22surpassed 31 pass attempts. That was
6:24Bryce Young all the way back in week
6:26one. And then, just kind of like the
6:28overarching point, this guy's dealing
6:29with a rib injury. So, if I'm the
6:32Falcons play caller, does it make a lot
6:33of sense to, okay, let's drop back to
6:35throw with this guy 40 times when we
6:37know we can run all over the Chicago
6:39Bears. I think it's going to be a
6:40run-heavy game script with Bijan. Yes,
6:42he's going to occasionally throw to
6:44Drake London as his first read, but
6:46besides that, I don't really expect,
6:48unless this game is another overtime
6:49type of thriller, that Penix is going to
6:51be able to attempt this many passes. So,
6:53five-star bet on the Prop It Cheat
6:54Sheet, I am definitely tailing it, and I
6:57suggest you do the same.
6:58>> Yeah, I actually was looking at this one
6:59as well. I think I think my bet was like
7:0120.5 completions 2 weeks ago, and I
7:05think that played out well. I'm fully on
7:07board with this one with Michael Penix.
7:10I'm going to be playing an over. This is
7:11my favorite targeted player for the
7:13week. It's the first thing that I put up
7:14on the sheet. Really just trying to find
7:16a decision on what side I wanted to
7:18play. I do lean into my receptions,
7:22but I held myself back a little bit, and
7:25we're going to play the receiving yards
7:26for Jaylen Warren this week. Jaylen
7:28Warren going up against the Bucks. The
7:29Bucks giving up uh over five catches, by
7:32the way, which made me want to play the
7:33receptions. The reception marker is at
7:353.5. Um giving up over 35 yards
7:38receiving to running backs so far this
7:40season. The projection totals on BP,
7:42it's it's slightly over. Um especially
7:45because the the the line flips a little
7:47bit. Like I think there's some spots
7:48it's 27. I've got this locked in at
7:5125.5.
7:52Um so 25.5 hits the marker for at least,
7:55you know, the projection standpoint if
7:57you care about that, but
7:58this is one of my favorite parts about
7:59it. Uh PFF grading
8:02running backs versus the Bucks in RB
8:06coverage.
8:0732
8:09on linebacker coverage. 32 on defensive
8:12back coverage on running backs. And 32
8:15on the D-line. There it is.
8:17Uh it is a bad run for running and for
8:20receiving. It works very, very well. And
8:23that's the receiving grade. It's the
8:24second highest receiving grade according
8:25to PFF for a running back for this week.
8:28Obviously, he chunks it out. He has hit
8:29this four straight weeks, I believe. If
8:31you go over on Betting Pros, you can see
8:33four of the five games this season, he
8:35has hit this marker. And by the way,
8:37he's crushed it. They've all been over
8:3830 yards receiving.
8:41There's no Roman Wilson. There's no
8:42Pittman. Aaron Rodgers dump off. Jaylen
8:45Warren goated. 25.5 receiving yards.
8:48That's my favorite play of the week.
8:49That's my number one over.
8:52And uh
8:53when I got it I had to get that one on
8:54the sheet just thinking you might you
8:56might have snagged that from me. I
8:57didn't know if you were into Jaylen
8:58Warren, but I quickly put that one up on
9:00the sheet. Uh you guys can go and have
9:02some fun and you guys can check out all
9:04of your bets, see how they reference
9:06versus Betting Pros, and you can find
9:08all of the NFL player prop bets with
9:10Betting Pros prop bet cheat sheet.
9:13Quickly compare lines from leading
9:14sports books against our daily NFL
9:16projections, uncover the props offering
9:18the most value, make smarter prop
9:20betting decisions all season long at
9:21bettingpros.com/props.
9:24And as mentioned, you can go in there
9:25and you can start sorting by projected
9:27EV, five-star bets. The five-star bets
9:29and the four-star bets as a simple click
9:31of just sorting you can go through have
9:33been wildly profitable this year. So go
9:36and check all of that out. The prop bet
9:37cheat sheet, it is your number one
9:39friend on Sunday. All right, let's go
9:42into our second props of the week.
9:44Ericsson, hit us with uh your favorite
9:47second prop.
9:48>> Jaylen Coker going over 55.5 receiving
9:51yards. The Panthers are taking on the
9:53Philadelphia Eagles without Jalen Hurts
9:55this week. I know that I mentioned on
9:58the best bet show with Seth that the
10:00Panthers laying 1.5 points was one of my
10:02favorite best bets. Now, obviously, that
10:04was before the Jalen Hurts news broke.
10:06So, just as an announcement, I'm still
10:08laying the points with Carolina
10:09Panthers. If it's 3.5, that's still one
10:11of my best bets. So, continue to bet it
10:13with confidence and fade this Eagles
10:15team into oblivion. That's because they
10:17cannot cover slot receivers. They have
10:19allowed 108 yards per game to slot
10:21targets.
10:23Over his two healthy games this season,
10:24Jaylen Coker has been over 55.5
10:27receiving yards, and he eats out of the
10:29slot. That's where he runs the majority
10:30of his routes. So, second most slot
10:32targets faced to slot receivers is the
10:34Eagles defense. So, I think Jaylen
10:36Coker, again, Grayson Cooks when he is
10:39on the field, and I think that's just
10:39going to continue here against a
10:41overrated Eagles defense. Over 300
10:44passing yards allowed in back-to-back
10:45games. Seventh most passing yards
10:47allowed this season per game. So, give
10:50me the over on Coker.
10:51>> I made a rule
10:53what, like week one? I think maybe it
10:55was week two when they did it again. I
10:56made a rule, if you are going to give me
10:59a half-decent line on 4.5 over
11:02receptions on Parker Washington,
11:05I'm going to take it.
11:06Well, guess what? It's not massively
11:08juiced. It's not 150 or anything like
11:10that. You can get it right around like
11:11120. I think I had like 120. I think
11:13it's floating around. Yeah, I still see
11:15120. So, I'm locked in at 120 over
11:18Parker Washington receptions. You're not
11:20going to get me off of it. BP
11:22projections like this because they've
11:24got him at five receptions. He has hit
11:26this in three of his five. And what used
11:29to be, you know, a match-up that was um
11:32you know, not great specifically because
11:35of Stingley. It was the Stingley effect
11:36here. Stingley has been okay, you know,
11:38he's like rated around 40th among corner
11:40backs so far this year.
11:42Ramsey, when Parker Washington is
11:44playing out of the slot, is like
11:45unranked so far this year. So, this is
11:47actually a positive, a great match-up,
11:50if you will, for Parker Washington. And
11:52he has been the main target. They're
11:54going to continuously slinging him the
11:55ball. He's coming off of a six-catch
11:57outing. You give me 4.5 I'm going to
12:00continue to play it over. I saw somebody
12:01It's on the fantasy side and I
12:03completely agree with this. Someone this
12:04past week, I'm forgetting who it was,
12:06but they had pointed out they just said,
12:08"You probably and your league is
12:10probably still under valuing Parker
12:13Washington." And I think that's still
12:15kind of playing out in the betting
12:17market a bit that I know people looking
12:19for a like a little bit more consistency
12:20when he had that one big dud, but he is
12:22the number one target play here. And I'm
12:25I'm I'm going to play my Parker
12:27Washington 4.5 receptions. So, enough to
12:29be said that is my second prop of of
12:32week six. All right, let's go to your
12:34third prop, Erickson. What do you got?
12:36>> It is spooky season. So, Cam Akers to
12:38boo, over 56.5 rushing yards. So, I
12:43think that the market is sleeping a
12:44little bit here on the Giants running
12:45back. I know he lost a fumble last week,
12:47but John Harbaugh did not punish Najee
12:49Harris a couple weeks ago after he
12:50fumbled. So, I think Akers to boo gets
12:52back to being the main workhorse for the
12:55Giants run game and you can't ask for a
12:57better match-up this week than against
12:59the New Orleans Saints defense that's
13:00allowed a league high 133.4
13:03rushing yards per game to opposing
13:04running backs. No defense has allowed
13:06more yards before contact and after
13:08contact per carry this season. So,
13:11Akers to boo this year has been hit
13:13behind the line of scrimmage on a lot of
13:15his carries. He's been doing a lot of
13:16his damage after contact. So, I think
13:19this is really one of his best match-ups
13:21he's had all season. New Orleans has
13:23allowed seven different running backs to
13:25hit not just double-digit fantasy
13:26points, but to hit at least 54 rushing
13:29yards against them. Again, seven running
13:31backs in five games that the Saints have
13:33allowed to hit 54 rushing yards. Akers
13:35has 56 and a half rushing yards in four
13:37of five games played this season. The
13:39only one where he fell short was that
13:40Rams game when Jackson got Jackson Dart
13:43got hurt in the beginning of the game
13:45and James Winston came off the bench and
13:46was dreadful. Every other healthy game
13:49that Akers has played since week three
13:51of last season, he has hit at least 56
13:54and a half rushing yards. So, I just
13:56think this number is too low. I'm taking
13:57the over.
13:59>> I got another over I'm going to play for
14:00you. This Akers, by the way. I'm going
14:02to play my Ramondre. Remondre, you're my
14:04reminder, really. He's got the the
14:06jersey right back there, people.
14:07>> Ramonster, baby.
14:08>> Ramonster, I was trying to think of
14:10I was trying to think of like if I had
14:12it, I didn't have it, clearly. If I
14:13could have had some type of spooky It's
14:15not even Halloween, but some spooky
14:16thing. Thank you, Ramonster. Dang it.
14:19Misappropriation. Editor, can we cut
14:21this? Boom. Ramonster Stevenson, if I
14:24could have only had that. Ramonster
14:25Stevenson, I love it. Receiving yards
14:28over. Now, the tricky thing that popped
14:31up was everybody thought like guaranteed
14:33Travion Henderson was going to be out.
14:34So much so, we had him knocked out
14:36because they're like, "He's going to
14:37miss multiple weeks." On Fantasy Pros
14:39site.
14:40Well, then all of a sudden, he was like
14:41in a practice. And that that is kind of
14:43changed the scope. I still think no
14:45matter what's going on, this is Ramondre
14:48Stevenson. Stevenson. Steven Sizzin.
14:51It's Ramondre Ramonster Steven Sizzin.
14:54And receiving yards over is my play
14:56against the Jets. He's hit this in two
14:58straight weeks. He's gone over the 20
15:00marker.
15:01The Jets are averaging around 28 yards
15:04given up receiving to running backs, but
15:05what's more important to me on this fact
15:07is they're giving up around six and a
15:09half yards per reception to running
15:11backs. And I think that's going to play
15:12in well.
15:14From a coverage standpoint, the one that
15:15I'm really looking at
15:17the Jets ranking 25th out of 32 a
15:21coverage against running backs. So,
15:24we're going to have that dump off.
15:25Ramondre plays that he's hit that two
15:27straight weeks. I really like this lined
15:28up. 19.5
15:30is the number that we're looking at. So,
15:32over 19.5 receiving yards, it works even
15:35better by the way if you end up getting
15:38um an official Henderson uh out, you're
15:40going to have Ramondre going to be
15:41locked into the total role, but I really
15:43don't even care. Trey Sermon doesn't
15:44really play a big role for this for me
15:46anyways.
15:47I personally think Stevenson is going to
15:49get this on one catch. So, over 19.5
15:51receiving yards, that is number three
15:54for me as we move through our favorite
15:57props of the week. Before we get to
15:58number four and five, I want to tell you
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16:40All right, we've got more props in here.
16:42Uh this is number four for each of us. I
16:45lose all my numerical side of how far we
16:47are cuz we've got 10 total, but four for
16:50you, Mr. Erickson, we have a correlative
16:53parlay both of ours. I love that you did
16:55this. Uh we are playing a correlative
16:57parlay to where yours plays and it works
17:00uh for mine.
17:02>> Well, because I was looking at your prop
17:03as well as one of my potential ones.
17:05But, when I saw your already in the show
17:07sheet, I knew which direction I wanted
17:08to go in. So, we are talking about the
17:11Titans wide receivers here because they
17:13have a juicy match up this week against
17:15Indianapolis Colts, but in a weird
17:17parallel universe, I'm the one that's
17:19actually taking the over here, and
17:21you're the one that's taking the under.
17:22So, I'm going to go over on Wan'Dale
17:24Robinson at 35.5 receiving yards. The
17:27Colts are defense that you attack with
17:30slot receivers. They've allowed the
17:31second most yards to slot targets this
17:34season. If you look at on the prop bet
17:36analyzer for Wan'Dale Robinson and his
17:38receiving yards comparable players, all
17:40green. All overs for every other slot
17:43receiver that has faced the Colts
17:44defense so far this season. Wan'Dale's
17:46already gone over this number in three
17:47of five games this season, and ranks
17:49fifth in the NFL in terms of slot
17:51targets. So, he's going to go over his
17:53receiving yards, which means, Welsh,
17:55>> uh Carnell Tate receptions are going
17:59under. I didn't take the receiving
18:00yards. I did take the receptions. I am
18:02playing the under receptions for Carnell
18:05Tate. That is actually a plus money play
18:08that's floating out there. I'm very into
18:10that. I was so close. I wonder if we can
18:12push this. Actually, now that I'm
18:13looking, it's even pushed to a little
18:15bit under minus money, but if
18:17I wonder if we can get this to a
18:18five-star. It is a three-star bet right
18:20now, which by the way, the three-star
18:21recommended bets on Betting Pros 18.7%
18:24ROI so far this year. Uh they are
18:27supporting, but the projections at four.
18:30Uh he did not hit this obviously last
18:32week. Three of five games this year, he
18:34has not hit this marker. He'd have to
18:35get to five. And I think the main thing,
18:37cuz you and I talked about this in the
18:39rank show, which kind of inspired both
18:41parts of this is that like the slot is
18:44where they're going to end up making any
18:46money. And also, you saw like Tajae
18:47Spears getting, you know, nine uh
18:49targets out of the backfield. I
18:52whether it's us or it's Ward,
18:55like Tate's the one that's going to get
18:56taken out of this game. The advantage is
18:58the players out of the slot, and you
19:00mentioned, that's Wan'Dale Robinson. So,
19:02Wan'Dale on the up, Carnell Tate not
19:05finding five receptions. So, we are
19:06going to play under 4.5 receptions for
19:10the week. This is my favorite one,
19:11because like we're hang we're holding
19:13hands through the beach, you know, it's
19:14footsteps.
19:16Carnell Tate, Aaron Jo- Erickson, Wondo
19:18Robinson, I'm always with you. We're
19:20always with on this bet, so under on
19:22Tate, over on Wondo Robinson. That's
19:24going to take us to our final props. And
19:27guess what?
19:28I'm taking an under. You're taking an
19:30under. And we are underwriting it here,
19:33so get us our final bet and your under
19:36for this one.
19:37>> Talked about it on a lot of different
19:38shows and programs this week about
19:40Jayden Daniels and how I think that his
19:42rushing is going to struggle here in
19:45this match against the 49ers. So, I'm
19:46going to take the under on Jayden
19:48Daniels rushing yards at 38 and a half.
19:51The 49ers defense this season has
19:52allowed the second fewest rushing yards
19:54per game to quarterbacks. And that's
19:55because of linebacker Fred Warner. He
19:58just totally changes that dynamic for
20:00scrambling quarterbacks and mobile
20:01quarterbacks. And they haven't faced the
20:04most mobile of all quarterbacks this
20:06season, but when they have faced guys
20:08that can move, Malik Willis, Bo Nix,
20:10those guys combined for 16 rushing yards
20:13against the 49ers. It was a season low
20:15in rushing yards for Bo Nix. No
20:17quarterback has rushed for more than 10
20:18yards against the 49ers. Four of the
20:20five quarterbacks that they've faced
20:22have gone under their rushing
20:23projection. Willis had six rushing yards
20:26with a 37 and a half rushing yards prop.
20:29So, he dramatically underwhelmed versus
20:31what the market was expecting. Malik
20:32Willis is a quarterback that yeah, we
20:34expect him to run just like we expect
20:36Jayden Daniels to run. I think it's very
20:38curious that the number is almost
20:39identical to what Malik Willis's was
20:42when he was up against the 49ers and he
20:43underwhelmed dramatically. Now, I know
20:46the Prophet Cheet actually likes the
20:47attempts on the under a little bit more,
20:49so that was something that I was also
20:51considering, but it's also because the
20:5449ers defense has just faced five
20:55scrambles this season, tied for fewest
20:57in the NFL. But, Jayden Daniels, I just
21:00look at his game logs and like this
21:02guy's always rushing seven times and
21:04scrambling seven times in every single
21:06game, it seems like. So, I got a little
21:08spooked by that, and then just I'm going
21:10to trust in this defense slowing him
21:11down with a QB spy, because I don't
21:13think they're going to have many
21:14answers. Dude, it was interesting. I
21:16looked at the injury report for the
21:1749ers and Commanders game, and someone
21:19made a comment, "It's not really often
21:21that you see a injury report where
21:22there's more guys injured than the 49ers
21:24team." And that is the current state of
21:26the Washington Commanders with more guys
21:28on their injury report than the San
21:30Francisco 49ers. So,
21:31>> possible, by the way? They have a They
21:33could field the roster of injured
21:35players. How is that possible?
21:37>> The
21:38The Commanders are really banged up,
21:39like across the board on defense, on
21:41offense. Their receivers are both
21:43dealing with hamstring injuries. Troy
21:44Apke and Jeremy Reaves have a groin
21:45injury now. So, I think that James
21:48Daniels is going to try to be Superman,
21:49but I think in this case, well, you got
21:52Bizarro on defense on the other side,
21:54and his name is Fred Warner. So, I'm
21:56taking the under.
21:57>> You need the That was You got the
21:58monster, his kryptonite. Superman's
22:00kryptonite is Fred Warner's. So, you got
22:02the monster, I got the
22:03>> we got to We got to reset that. Yeah.
22:05>> Editors, recut it. Recut it. Do the line
22:06again.
22:08You got to actually do it. You do
22:09>> Oh, I actually have to do it.
22:10>> Uh by the way, um
22:12if you had the over on me uh knocking
22:14and dumping water all over my desk as I
22:16got super hyped up talking about the
22:18last prop, then you cashed. If people
22:19are wondering what I was doing, I just
22:21was like, I'm like, "Blah!" cuz I talk
22:23with my hands, and I just annihilated
22:24water everywhere. So, I was trying to
22:26listen to all of your great takes while
22:27attempting to clean my desk so it didn't
22:29destroy everything. So, uh you guys
22:31cashed that. All right. So, you took a
22:33quarterback rushing under.
22:35You all get a quarterback rushing under,
22:37cuz I am going to be joining you, but
22:38this time I am going to be taking the
22:41under on rushing yards on Deshaun
22:43Watson. Deshaun Watson definitely has
22:45had some of those bigger outputs. He had
22:4740 last week, uh 45 in week three. He is
22:50playing a little bit of week on week
22:52off. Week one, three, and five he's hit
22:55this. Two and four, he hasn't hit this.
22:57Maybe not You don't have to play like
22:58necessary correlations here, but uh BP
23:01projections support this at around 27
23:03rushing yards. This number is sitting at
23:0528.5.
23:07And would you know it, fun fact, uh the
23:09Ravens have not given up 27, more than
23:1327 rushing yards, to any single
23:15quarterback this season. That has not
23:18happened. They're also only giving up
23:19around 4 yards per carry on quarterback.
23:22So, this would have to be something
23:24where the defense has locked down and
23:26Deshaun Watson feels he needs to run.
23:28That's not going to be this matchup with
23:30the Ravens. Uh Casey Conceição,
23:31hopefully out there. Harold Landry gets
23:34back involved in it. This is not
23:36something that the Ravens are going to
23:37allow. Deshaun Watson projections, they
23:40play under this. They have not allowed
23:42it. I like this, so I am going with a
23:43second under here. Deshaun Watson under
23:4628.5
23:48rushing yards. Would you look at that? I
23:50said I wouldn't do two unders again
23:52because I finally lost my first under,
23:54and now I'm going back to two. So, we're
23:56going to have some fun with it, and
23:57we've had Bizarro World and monsters and
23:59cryptids tonight. Let's go to some
24:01touchdowns though. Before we do, we're
24:03going to pick two touchdowns each, and
24:04then our first touchdown, you guys can
24:06go and check out the touchdown score
24:08report. Looking for an edge in touchdown
24:10bets, we got you. Our touchdown score
24:12report compares anytime touchdown stats
24:14to prop bet odds and projections to help
24:17identify the best anytime touchdown
24:19bets. Head to bettingpros.com/touchdown
24:22for the latest touchdown prop analysis
24:24today.
24:25Mr. Andrew Erickson,
24:27holy crap, your two touchdowns. You have
24:31one that's going to be fun, and then
24:34it's going to be really fun here. You
24:36are going to open some eyes. So, please,
24:38my friend,
24:39let us know about your two touchdowns.
24:41And one of these is not your first
24:42touchdown, by the way. I'm just letting
24:44you know, let everyone know right now.
24:45There's an over 10 to one touchdown
24:47call, and that's not a first touchdown
24:49that you're playing. So, hit us with
24:50your touchdown plays.
24:52>> All right, going to go with Luther
24:53Burden at plus 175 for an anytime
24:56touchdown, wide receiver for the Chicago
24:58Bears. Atlanta is allowing nearly two
24:59passing touchdowns per game. They are
25:01one of these defenses that's more of a
25:03pass funnel than run funnel. Burden,
25:06surprisingly, ranks fifth in the NFL
25:08this year in red zone targets. This
25:09season, among all wide receivers, he is
25:11eighth. So, given the fact that Chase
25:13Claypool is coming back, maybe he gets a
25:15little bump. One of these Bears pass
25:17guys is going to find the end zone.
25:18Whether it's Burden, whether it's Adim
25:20Iduh, whether it's Lovett, someone's
25:21going to score. And at least so far this
25:23season, Burden has been the most heavily
25:25involved in the red zone. So, that's the
25:27direction I'm going to go in with him at
25:28175. And then my long shot for an
25:31anytime touchdown is Green Bay Packers
25:34wide receiver. Not Not Christian Watson.
25:37Not Matthew Golden.
25:39>> Wait, can I stop you real quick? Oh,
25:40hold on. Your touchdown call
25:44is
25:45better odds than my first touchdown
25:48call, who is a Green Bay Packer. You
25:50have better touchdown odds on just an
25:52anytime touchdown with this guy. Can you
25:54even pronounce his name?
25:56>> I don't know. It's Jay Michael
25:58Sturdivant, I believe is his name. Green
26:01Bay Packers wide receiver. I think he
26:03played around 13% of the snaps last
26:05week. But, the most important thing, he
26:08caught a 43-yard touchdown pass last
26:11week that was nullified on an offensive
26:13pass interference call.
26:15The coaches talked about this after the
26:17game that This is according to the Coach
26:19Speak Index. Shout out to Greg Brunos.
26:21Excellent job over there. The coaches
26:23said that play he had last week would
26:25have been awesome to get him his first
26:26touchdown. But, I'm sure it'll be coming
26:28pretty soon.
26:30That's all I'm saying. And when you're
26:31facing the Dallas Cowboys defense,
26:33you can pick and choose how you want to
26:35score your touchdowns. So, I think that
26:37the fact that he scored last week and it
26:39got taken off, that the coach can be
26:41like, "You know what?
26:42Let's get him his touchdown." He had a
26:43really nice catch last week, but it
26:44didn't count. Let's get him his score,
26:46especially against the Dallas Cowboys.
26:47So, that's going to be my anytime Jay
26:50Michael Sturdivant at 10 to 1.
26:54>> 10 is a plus 1050. It's incredible. All
26:56right. My two plays, I'm going to go
26:58with incredible plays here, Erickson.
27:00I'm going to go with Isaiah Likely.
27:01Isaiah Likely at almost two to one plus
27:04185.
27:06Saints have given up a few touchdowns in
27:07here. Winston going to be absolutely
27:09slinging the ball.
27:11I I really like the target share that
27:12he's getting right now. And when Winston
27:14is out there, we just know it's going to
27:15be 40 plus pass attempts going up
27:17against the Saints. I think this is a
27:19great play. And then Jaylen Coker, you
27:20mentioned you like Jaylen Coker in this
27:22one.
27:23You know, we were trying to We did this
27:25whole thing on Tailgate about, you know,
27:26the Eagles and blah blah blah. And then
27:27we heard the Jaylen Hurts thing. But if
27:30you just, you know, bring it back to the
27:32Panthers and don't think about the
27:34obvious thing that's going to happen. We
27:35all think the Panthers are going to win
27:36now. So clearly the Eagles will win by
27:3720. Is that like their defense and
27:40regime has not been as good. And when
27:42you look at some of the touchdown plays
27:44as well, the six receiving touchdowns
27:46they've given up, I believe five of
27:47those six have come out of like slot
27:49receivers. So I mean, that is the play
27:51and that is where Jaylen Coker lives.
27:52He's going to get those targets. I know
27:54Terrace Marshall has been the dude,
27:56especially from a red zone perspective.
27:58But he should see coverage. Jaylen
27:59Coker, I think Bryce Young will be
28:00slinging the ball. Jaylen Coker is three
28:03to one. Three times. So I yeah, I I love
28:06the odds on that one. So Jaylen Coker
28:08anytime touchdown, that is going to be
28:10my play. And that takes us finally to
28:12our first touchdowns. We have not hit
28:14one. We all
28:16We I will say we are getting to the
28:17point where we kind of need to hit one
28:19soon. You know, because it's like I
28:21mean, I guess not. Like we could go
28:22probably 10 weeks without it being like
28:24too much of an issue. But like let's try
28:26to hit one here. So there is no 80 to
28:28ones. There's no 50 to ones in here. I'm
28:31going to just tell you right now. I'm
28:32I'm going to get mine out of the way cuz
28:33yours is like a little bit sexier. I
28:35don't shut up about this. But Christian
28:37Watson has scored like three first
28:39anytime touchdowns. Jordan Love loves
28:41him. They love to go to him deep in
28:43games. He continuously gets the first
28:46touchdown. And I think that game is
28:48going to be slinging the crap out of the
28:49ball. And he has a little bit less odds
28:51than your touchdown call. He's 10 to 1.
28:5310 which actually is better than I think
28:54the previous week where he's like 7 and
28:561/2 to 1. I'm going to just roll this
28:58out again and take a shot at a 10 to 1
29:00Christian Watson in a game that I think
29:02is going to be heavily pass influenced
29:04and the ball goes to Christian Watson
29:07early and often. So, 10 to 1 is mine.
29:09You, my friend, you are dancing with the
29:12devil on your play. You're going to
29:14London. And my god, are you really going
29:18to pick the name that I think you're
29:19going to pick?
29:20>> Marvin Harrison Jr.
29:21>> Wow.
29:22>> 22 to 1 to score the first touchdown for
29:24the Houston Texans taking on the
29:26Jacksonville London Jaguars. The last
29:29time [clears throat] we saw Marvin
29:30Harrison Jr. with C.J. Stroud as his
29:32quarterback, he caught 14 touchdowns in
29:352022.
29:37The last game these two guys played
29:38together at the Ohio State University.
29:41Two touchdowns against Georgia in the
29:43college football playoff.
29:45>> I want to hate this so much. I want to
29:47hate this so
29:48much.
29:48>> he's going to have packages that are
29:49going to 100% be in the red zone.
29:51>> I was I was just about to say that. You
29:53know if they're not going to care about
29:55like when they're on the 30 and they're
29:56running their second down package on the
29:58fourth play. No, it's going to just be
30:00like 20 red zone run out you're 100% red
30:04zone about this.
30:04>> they're going to Stroud's going to he's
30:06he's going to run out of the huddle.
30:07He's going to be out wide, solidified,
30:10isolated extra yard.
30:11>> look at Marvin.
30:12>> He's going to be like
30:12>> Okay, he's look at Marvin. It's going to
30:13be Travis Hunter lined up with him
30:15one-on-one and I mean the Texans want to
30:17look smart, right? They want to look
30:19like yeah, we made the smart move and
30:20they want to make the Cardinals look
30:21dumb. So, they're going to be like we're
30:23going to get our guy a touchdown. And
30:24look, Marvin Harrison Jr. the last time
30:25he played the Cardinals, he did catch
30:27touchdown back in week three. So, yeah,
30:30I think that this is what he's actually
30:32done well at the NFL level. Like he
30:33scored eight touchdowns as a rookie.
30:35Like he's commanded a high target share
30:38of end zone targets throughout his NFL
30:39career. This is what he has been good at
30:42and I think that's going to start here
30:44in week one. I think there I think
30:45there's going to be like a precedent to
30:47to like, let's get him a touchdown,
30:49right? Let's get all the good feels out,
30:51the good vibes, Stroud, the Ohio State,
30:53all that good stuff, especially against
30:54the rival like the Jaguars. Like, this
30:55is a must-win game for the Houston
30:57Texans, or else they're going to fall to
31:00one and five, cuz right now they're one
31:02and four. So, they need this win. They
31:04got to upset the Jaguars, and
31:06hey, and M.J., I've seen crazier things.
31:09>> I I love a narrative-based first
31:11touchdown bet. Like, that was my Uche
31:13check one. Like, just give me a
31:15narrative to play around with the logic,
31:17and I'm I'm just I'm a sucker for it.
31:19>> It happened what? With uh
31:21the Juwan Johnson one back in week one.
31:23It was his birthday. So, of course they
31:25were going to get him a touchdown.
31:26>> I don't like any of our narratives have
31:27worked, but like all it needs to work
31:30once for us to not shut the [laughter]
31:31hell up about it, so and and to be up,
31:33so we'll get there. I love it. I love
31:35it. I think yours is way more fun. Mine
31:36is just like he keeps doing it, so
31:38clearly it's going to be Matthew Golden
31:40uh in this one, but like all Watson does
31:42is do it, but yours is just so much more
31:43fun.
31:43>> there's a reason why I didn't put
31:45Steuart Devant as the first touchdown,
31:47because to your point, it's Watson and
31:50Golden. Those guys both rank top five in
31:52end zone targets this year. Cuz when
31:54they get into the red zone area, Jordan
31:56Love is just slinging the ball to all
31:58these guys. So, yeah, I I think that I
32:01mean, nothing would make me happier than
32:02on Sunday Night Football, Christian
32:04Watson scores the first touchdown, next
32:06drive, Steuart Devant, our guy, scores
32:09the next touchdown.
32:10>> I mean, just get
32:12You know what?
32:13That's how I'm going to get my Sunday
32:15text from Ericsson. I'll get my Sunday
32:16text from Ericsson there. I won't get it
32:17from Jahmyr Gibbs, but I'm going to get
32:19it from Steuart Devant or whatever.
32:22>> wonder what I I Any ideas? I don't know
32:24what the J in his name stands for. I It
32:27may just be J. Do you have any guesses
32:29for J. Michael Steuart Devant?
32:30>> Um
32:31>> It could also could just be J.
32:33[clears throat]
32:33>> I feel like James James is like a pretty
32:35good one. I mean, we could look it up
32:36here. is it?
32:36>> I I want I want to see what you might
32:38think.
32:39>> Oh, yeah. You go with James.
32:40>> I'm going to say James. Do you have a
32:42pick?
32:42>> I'll go with uh
32:45Mm, I'll go with Joe.
32:47I'll go with Joe.
32:48>> Let's see. Oh, it's J Yeah, it's J
32:50Michael's Oh, it just went away from it.
32:52I don't know.
32:53>> His name might just be J, too.
32:56>> No, it It was like J Michael Strider.
32:58Let's see if we're going to find it.
32:59Well, now everyone's going to have to
33:01hang out with us. Seriously, Sports
33:02Reference should usually tell us, right?
33:04>> It should.
33:04>> And there's nothing. It just says J.
33:06And there's nothing. It just says J.
33:08What's the J?
33:10Someone tell us the J. Okay, in the
33:12comments below. 35 of you can all say
33:15the same thing or look for the first
33:17person to do it. We need to know what
33:18the J is. That's all we're looking for.
33:21Um but yeah, I'm I'm going to go with
33:22James. What did you I'm sorry, what did
33:23you say?
33:24>> Joe. But I mean, his I mean, his his
33:26name just might His first name might
33:27just be J Michael.
33:29Like
33:30>> It didn't look like it. It was like J.
33:31Like it was an abbreviation. Like
33:33Michael's the middle name, which is
33:34okay. We're going to find out. You know
33:36what? The whole world's going to know
33:37when he scores his touchdown.
33:39>> Michael's my middle name.
33:40>> Is it?
33:40I was going to be named I was told I was
33:42going to be named Michael and I wasn't.
33:43I was named Chris.
33:45And then you guys are done with it. Shut
33:47up. Shut up and
33:48>> You guys are getting to the best. I
33:49thought your name was Welsh.
33:50>> It's the, actually. My legal name is the
33:52and then it's Welsh. [laughter] That's
33:53how it is. All right. You guys can't
33:54complain, by the way, because we gave
33:56you all the stuff. So, you can't be
33:57like, "Hey guys, shut up. Get to the
33:59best." We did it. So, you can go away if
34:00you want. We need to know what J is and
34:03we know learned that Erickson was
34:04Michael. I could have been a Michael.
34:06Are you? I don't know. Get your bets in.
34:09Let us know in the comments. Are you
34:10Michael?
34:12>> [laughter]
34:12>> All right, we we've devolved. Wait, this
34:14is late-night prop betting. This is the
34:15best kind. Hopefully, you guys enjoyed
34:17it. 10 prop bets for anytime touchdowns,
34:20some first touchdowns. We'll see how we
34:22did last week. We'll see if the loopy
34:25betting show ends up being profitable.
34:28Shout out to Joe Madden and Scott Bogman
34:30last week holding it down. Shout out to
34:31you guys that were here for them and
34:33that you are here for us. Hopefully we
34:35are going to cash you guys some big
34:36stuff. Make sure you guys download the
34:37Betting Pros app. That is the way that
34:39you are going to be able to do all of
34:42the great stuff from tracking your bets
34:44better than any other place. You can
34:45check out all the stuff we talked about
34:47from the Prop Bet Cheat Sheet. You can
34:49get some personalized picks based on
34:50your history. You can get in the
34:52five-star. I'm telling you, go and
34:54explore it. Don't even just listen to
34:56me. Go and explore it for yourself.
34:57bettingpros.com/app. Go and download
34:59that today. That is going to do it. We
35:01got to get out of here. Good luck in
35:02week six. Hopefully you guys make some
35:04money and we'll talk to you next week
35:05right here on Betting Pros. That's
35:07Erickson. I'm Welsh. Bye Michael.
35:09Peace out.
35:11>> Who is Jay?
35:14>> Jay Michael.

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