Top 10 NFL Player Props Picks for Week 4 | Prop Bets & TD Scorers (2026) — Transcript
Full transcript
- 0:00What's up friends and welcome into
- 0:01Betting Pros. This is the week four
- 0:03props show. I'm Chris Welsh. I've got
- 0:04Andrew Ericson, the Undertaker. And
- 0:07that's going to mean something in this
- 0:09episode. We are going to be going
- 0:11through our top 10 [music] props for
- 0:13week four. We've got five each. We're
- 0:15going to do some touchdown calls. We've
- 0:17got first touchdowns. And we got a whole
- 0:19bunch of fun to go through. And that
- 0:21fun, Mr. Andrew Ericson actually does
- 0:24start with our big board because last
- 0:26week uh keeping our accountability
- 0:28buddies all happy. We were both three
- 0:30and two. So we had another 500 week. The
- 0:33only week that's I mean you've been 500
- 0:35all three weeks. So shout out to you.
- 0:36Would you like to you have a little
- 0:37speech? Like all three weeks of over
- 0:39500. You're kind of amazing right now.
- 0:41Speech. Speech. Speech. Speech.
- 0:42>> I mean I would have been four and one if
- 0:44Chase Brown hadn't let me down. come a
- 0:47couple yards short of hitting his
- 0:48rushing yards prop, but hey, in the
- 0:51green, giving out good plays. We both
- 0:53hit touchdowns last week, which is a big
- 0:55hit. Two and 0 or I guess two and two
- 0:58because we give two touchdown bets. But
- 0:59the fact that both our tight ends end up
- 1:01scoring, finding the end zone, that was
- 1:03a big W.
- 1:05>> Yeah. So, when we look at the big board
- 1:07for last week, we were both three and
- 1:09two. You said we both hit a touchdown.
- 1:11You had a big positive EV because I
- 1:13believe it was the Ken Sadik. So you
- 1:15were like plus or Eevee um ROI you had
- 1:18like you were like plus three units I
- 1:20guess on that technically I was a little
- 1:22over you know a little over on the
- 1:24positive but either way I got my first
- 1:25touchdown call you got the cut touchdown
- 1:27call both three and two so when we go
- 1:29and take a look at the yearly board you
- 1:31are now 10 and5 very impressive very hot
- 1:35start at least I'm over 500 I am now 8
- 1:38and seven after my poorish week one two
- 1:40straight weeks though of being over 500
- 1:42so you're 10 and five I'm 8 Seven. You
- 1:44have two touchdown calls. Correct. I
- 1:46have one. You've got a positive return
- 1:49uh from a unit perspective on your
- 1:51touchdowns. I am still in the negative.
- 1:53Got to get there. And we have zero first
- 1:56touchdown calls. Correct. But we will
- 1:58boy if we hit ours this week. Just wait
- 2:01to the setup that we're going to give
- 2:02you guys. Uh that's the big setup for
- 2:04the big board. But we have a couple
- 2:06other well we have one other big board
- 2:08or the graphic that we have is the Jir
- 2:11Gibbs rollover touchdown continues three
- 2:15straight weeks Erikson said you can make
- 2:18money off of big juiced up touchdown
- 2:22calls and like in years past that one
- 2:24whatever it was a Christian McCaffrey
- 2:25you know it was like 15 straight weeks
- 2:27you could have you could have been a
- 2:28billionaire if you would have done it
- 2:30that's your game into here so talk to us
- 2:33through I don't really remember where
- 2:34we're Where are we at from a unit
- 2:36perspective going into week four of Jir
- 2:38Gibbs betting?
- 2:40>> Full disclosure, my unit size is not big
- 2:42enough for me to become a billionaire.
- 2:43Whether Jir Gibbs scores touchdowns for
- 2:4630 consecutive weeks, but I think now
- 2:49we're at to a point where it's two and a
- 2:51half units, I believe, now that we're
- 2:53betting on Jir Gibbs to score the
- 2:54anytime touchdown just based on the
- 2:57winnings rolling that over every single
- 2:59week. And again, good matchup this week
- 3:02against the Carolina Panthers. So yeah,
- 3:04another week of Jir Gibbs and hey, if
- 3:07it's doesn't happen in the first half,
- 3:09goes in that Sunday night football game,
- 3:11it'll be a sweaty second half, maybe a
- 3:12late fourth quarter touchdown, but I'm
- 3:14expecting another touchdown performance
- 3:16from Jir Gibbs.
- 3:18>> And I think it's like I think it's like
- 3:20minus 220. So you're probably going to
- 3:23be looking at well, I don't remember
- 3:24what you just said, two and a half
- 3:25units. So you're you'll probably be up
- 3:27like maybe close to four if if this
- 3:30rolls over and we go into week five. But
- 3:31but now we're we're starting to cook a
- 3:33little bit. So the Jir Gibbs roll over
- 3:36continues. It's very exciting. The other
- 3:38one I don't I don't even know if we have
- 3:39a graphic for it cuz we didn't need it.
- 3:41But the Welsh undefeated unders has
- 3:44ended. So now I'm obliged to never bet
- 3:47an under again. I was one and one on my
- 3:48unders. I put two unders on my card. The
- 3:51one blew past it. So I refuse to do an
- 3:54under this week out of solidarity for
- 3:56unders being lame. you are going to do
- 3:59the exact opposite here into the show,
- 4:01but we've got 10 bangers for you.
- 4:03Hopefully, you guys are going to be
- 4:04tracking along with us. Make sure you
- 4:06guys download the betting pros app where
- 4:08you can track all of your bets. You can
- 4:10get all the data. You can see the
- 4:11fivestar bets that we talk about. You
- 4:13can see what betting pros. You can use
- 4:14the analyzer or the cheat sheet to help
- 4:16you out. All the tools that we make as a
- 4:18part of our whole system here, you can
- 4:21do the same. So, download the betting
- 4:22pros app. Let's jump into this now that
- 4:24we got all that stuff out of the way.
- 4:26It's a fresh week. We got to be big and
- 4:28positive. We got touchdown calls first.
- 4:31I'm actually like super excited to do
- 4:32the first touchdown calls, but we also
- 4:34have a few returners to the prop bets
- 4:37here. I'm going to have one. You have
- 4:39got one that actually failed you. And
- 4:41there may be a trend of one person going
- 4:44heavy overs and one person going heavy
- 4:46unders, but uh for you that's not going
- 4:49to change, at least in this first one.
- 4:50So, Erikson, uh this is a squad ride one
- 4:52run. I completely agree with you on this
- 4:54one. Love this play. your first prop for
- 4:56week four. Hit us with it.
- 4:59>> Josh DS over 62 a half receiving yards.
- 5:02We are headed to London because I like
- 5:05starting my Sunday with the big W. So,
- 5:07we're going to get some action in on
- 5:08this Commanders Colts game in the early
- 5:11window. You're going to be up really
- 5:12early to watch Josh Downs dominate this
- 5:14defense. Welsh 6:30 a.m. Eastern time or
- 5:17is it 7:30 Eastern time because of the
- 5:20time zone differences with daylight
- 5:22savings? What time is it actually going
- 5:23to be when the Colts game kicks off in
- 5:26London for you?
- 5:26>> I What? Well, you give me the Eastern
- 5:28time. What is the Easter?
- 5:29>> 9:30 Eastern. It's 9:30 Eastern.
- 5:31>> That will be Wow. Somehow you got all of
- 5:33it wrong. I don't even know how you did
- 5:35that. 6:30. It will be 6:30 my time,
- 5:37Pacific.
- 5:38>> So, yeah.
- 5:39>> So, you'll be up sweating the Josh Downs
- 5:41prop alongside me.
- 5:43>> I won't, but yeah.
- 5:44>> Okay, then you're going to wake up to
- 5:46>> I'm going to wake up to money. That's
- 5:47what I'll do. Wake up. wake up to money
- 5:50to Josh Towns because his Commanders
- 5:52defense is so horrible at covering
- 5:55basically everybody that catches the
- 5:57ball.
- 5:57>> They have allowed a league high 46.7
- 5:59fantasy points per game to receivers.
- 6:01The fourth highest pass rating to
- 6:03quarterbacks targeting the slot so far
- 6:05this season and that's where Josh Down
- 6:07does the majority of his damage. 68% of
- 6:10his routes are run out of the slot. That
- 6:12is the fifth highest mark among
- 6:13qualified wide receivers. So, it's a
- 6:15good matchup when it just comes to him
- 6:17facing up with this commander defense.
- 6:19And his role in the Colts offense has
- 6:20changed. He is no longer just being
- 6:22pigeonholed into, okay, you're only
- 6:24playing in 11 personnel. He is a
- 6:26full-time player in the Colts offense,
- 6:28running the most routes on the team. The
- 6:31last two weeks, he's averaged a team
- 6:33high 2.4 yards per route run on nearly a
- 6:3633% target share. while the team has not
- 6:38had Alec Pierce, who's been out with an
- 6:40injury, 20 targets over the last two
- 6:42weeks, five passes for at least 70 yards
- 6:45in each contest. So, the fact that
- 6:47you're getting this number below 70
- 6:48yards, he's been over this in two
- 6:50straight weeks, and the matchup is oh so
- 6:53juicy. I think Josh Downs is going to
- 6:55have another big statement game here.
- 6:58The fact that he's being used more
- 6:59downfield, Josh DS is usually a player I
- 7:01think in years past, we would have had
- 7:03this conversation, Welsh, about, okay,
- 7:05are we doing the receptions? Are we
- 7:06doing the receiving yards with Josh
- 7:07Towns? And more or less, he's always
- 7:09been a guy that, okay, we want to attack
- 7:11the volume with them because he's using
- 7:12used more underneath. But because his
- 7:14airy yard share is actually now top 12
- 7:16in the NFL, 114 incomplete air yards
- 7:20last year, he's actually seeing more
- 7:21downfield stuff. So, I actually like and
- 7:23feel confident about the yardage,
- 7:25especially with his receiving prop or
- 7:26the receptions prop like we talked about
- 7:28earlier is really juiced towards the
- 7:30over, especially at five and a half. So,
- 7:32I like the yardage here and he's going
- 7:34to go over.
- 7:35you actually make a very compelling case
- 7:37to play the other side of what my prop
- 7:39is going to be and I'll tell you here in
- 7:41a second. But what did I say the first
- 7:42two weeks? If you give me four and a
- 7:44half on Parker Washington, I'm taking
- 7:46the over. Then they did give me four and
- 7:49a half the next week and I was just
- 7:50like, nay sir, because it's too juiced.
- 7:53We are now in a spot where I am going to
- 7:55open up the market to five and a halfs
- 7:57on Parker Washington because we are goat
- 8:00status and this is going to be plus
- 8:02money. So I am jumping in. I'm jumping
- 8:04back. Technically, I'm 2 and 0 on Parker
- 8:06Washington bets. We are going to go for
- 8:08three and0. I'm back on Parker
- 8:09Washington and we are playing it's not
- 8:12the alt. It's not necessarily the
- 8:13outline. It's the 5.5 over and it's plus
- 8:16money and you know a couple different
- 8:17spots there's a little bit over or I've
- 8:19even seen like plus 119 to 120 on Parker
- 8:22Washington. The thing that makes it
- 8:23interesting of what you said, Parker
- 8:25Washington actually is fourth in the NFL
- 8:27in airard share 46%. So that would
- 8:31actually be a play. It's pushed up a
- 8:33little bit around the 70ish marker. So,
- 8:35that actually kind of interests me in
- 8:36the evergoing battle of receptions
- 8:39versus um uh receiving yards, but in
- 8:42this case, like Parker Washington has
- 8:44been the guy. And the now the Bengals
- 8:46secondary has been solid from an overall
- 8:49perspective. But if you look at PFF uh
- 8:51ratings out for this week, number two
- 8:53overall matchup for Parker Washington,
- 8:55graded out obviously because he is so
- 8:57high. But one of the things to focus on,
- 8:59it's not DJ Turner, it's DJ Ivy and Dax
- 9:02Hill, the corners that he might be lined
- 9:05up against, especially specifically when
- 9:07he gets into the slot. Um, DJ Turner
- 9:09will stay on the outsides a bit more. DJ
- 9:12Ivy does not even qualify, is unranked,
- 9:15and you're looking at Daxill, the other
- 9:17corner that's like 90 of 100 overall
- 9:19corners. So, they're going to move. We
- 9:21know that Parker Washington's going to
- 9:22move throughout the offense. They're
- 9:23going to get him on the inside and
- 9:25they're going to slang him the ball. He
- 9:27his target share has been up there. I
- 9:29believe it's closed in on around 39% as
- 9:32I'm looking here. No, 28.4%
- 9:35overall target share for the team with a
- 9:3832 uh 8% first read share. So, we just
- 9:43go through this. He is the guy. He is
- 9:45the top guy. And him playing out of the
- 9:47slot more, I know Jacobe Meyers is going
- 9:49to force into some of that. I think this
- 9:51game is going to be slinging the ball
- 9:53and Parker Washington is getting the
- 9:55targets per game. We're closing in on
- 9:56eight. These are going to be some
- 9:58catchable balls. It's a favorable
- 9:59matchup. Give me 5.5 on the uh
- 10:02receptions over, but I you do have me a
- 10:04little bit interested talking about the
- 10:06airard share and thinking about that.
- 10:07That is maybe a pivot play that you guys
- 10:10could take a look at if you want. And by
- 10:12the way, you can go and play these out
- 10:14with the NFL prop cheat sheet. Find the
- 10:17best NFL player props with betting pros
- 10:19prop bet cheat sheet. Quickly compare
- 10:21lines from leading sports books against
- 10:22our daily NFL projections to uncover the
- 10:25props offering the most value. Make
- 10:27smarter prop betting decisions all
- 10:29season long at bettingpros.com/props.
- 10:31Go and play through. Get your best bets
- 10:34in there and let betting pros help you
- 10:36out. All right, let's go to number two
- 10:38on the props here. Will we start to get
- 10:40the unders, Mr. Undertaker?
- 10:43>> So, I'm actually going to the Bengals
- 10:45Jaguars game. Chase Brown. He failed me
- 10:49last week. So clearly now he's dead to
- 10:51me and I'm only betting his unders.
- 10:53Under 16 and a half rushing attempts for
- 10:55Chase Brown. This number really stood
- 10:58out to me when I was perusing through
- 11:00the betting pros prop bet cheat sheet
- 11:02because this number is ludicrously high
- 11:06for a player like Chase Brown. And I'm
- 11:08one of the biggest Chase Brown fans.
- 11:09We're talking about him as a buy low
- 11:11across the board in Fantasy Pros, but
- 11:13this number is just way too big for him
- 11:16in this particular matchup. The
- 11:17projections have Chase Brown at 14.9
- 11:20carries. He's only going over this
- 11:22number one time in three games played
- 11:24this season, and that was against the
- 11:25Houston Texans. But dating back to last
- 11:28year, he's gone over this number just
- 11:30five times in 20 games played. That is a
- 11:3320% hit rate towards the over, or as I
- 11:36like to look at it, an 80% hit rate
- 11:37towards the under, which is why we're
- 11:39playing this as one of my best bets this
- 11:42week. You look at the running back so
- 11:43far this season that have faced the
- 11:44Jaguars.
- 11:46No running back they have faced has
- 11:48surpassed 12 carries. And a little
- 11:50trivia for you, Welsh, how many times do
- 11:53you think a running back had at least 17
- 11:55carries against the Jacksonville Jaguars
- 11:57in the entire 2025 season? How many
- 12:01running backs? And who do you think they
- 12:03were?
- 12:05>> Well, I mean, how you're setting me up,
- 12:07it's got to be like two. And I don't
- 12:11know.
- 12:12>> You're right. It is two. Two very, very
- 12:15good running backs. Christian McCaffy.
- 12:17>> James Cook won.
- 12:18>> No, James Cook is not either of them. It
- 12:20was Christian McCaffrey. Okay.
- 12:21>> And Jonathan Taylor did it twice against
- 12:23them. But
- 12:25>> those guys are just different offenses.
- 12:2890% snapshare players. As much as I love
- 12:31Chase Brown, he's not in that category.
- 12:34He's not a 90% snap share type of
- 12:37player. He does seed some type of work
- 12:38to Sama Perine at times. So, even last
- 12:43year in this same matchup where to your
- 12:45point about Parker Washington, he did
- 12:47have a monster game last year against
- 12:49the Bengals, even before he had his like
- 12:51full-fledged breakout. Last year against
- 12:53the Jaguars, Chase Brown topped out at
- 12:5616 carries. But the big difference from
- 12:59that game versus this game is Joe Burrow
- 13:01got hurt in that game. They had Jake
- 13:03Browning for the majority of that game,
- 13:04which is why they leaned on Chase Brown
- 13:06so much. So, I think that's kind of
- 13:07playing into why his number here is so
- 13:10high. And the fact that he did do it one
- 13:12time already against the Houston Texans,
- 13:13but that wasn't a game where the Bengals
- 13:15could really play ball control and just
- 13:17try to play defense because the Texans
- 13:18offense could not move the football
- 13:20against their defense. So, I just think
- 13:22that this number is totally wrong for a
- 13:24player like Chase Brown in a game where
- 13:26you could see the Bengals have a
- 13:27negative game script. Like the Jaguars,
- 13:29this is going to be a close game. The
- 13:30spread is really tight. It's a
- 13:32high-scoring affair. And I think that
- 13:33Chase Brown, yeah, he'll see volume and
- 13:34see touches, but I think his total
- 13:36volume will actually be a combination of
- 13:38rushing attempts and targets, receptions
- 13:41out of the backfield versus just
- 13:42straight up carries. So, this one I
- 13:44really like a lot. The prop bed cheat
- 13:46sheet agrees under 16 and a half carries
- 13:47for Chase Brown in week four. [snorts]
- 13:50Okay, I'm down with this one. This one's
- 13:52a slick one. Uh I'm going to play the
- 13:53rushing yards, but we are going to go to
- 13:56the quarterback and we're going to play
- 13:57an over and I'm finally going to dip my
- 14:00toe in the Malik Willis pool. Uh that is
- 14:02somebody that, you know, wanted to try
- 14:04to dive into, wanted to see more rushing
- 14:07yards last week that started to click.
- 14:09He was able to drop 56. Um you know, in
- 14:13a in a spot where he didn't really rush
- 14:15a whole bunch prior to that. uh 49ers it
- 14:18it wasn't a big one but I mean I guess
- 14:20against the Raiders he had also passed
- 14:22this number but what we're looking at is
- 14:23a consensus line of around 28.5
- 14:26projections are kind of all over the
- 14:27board isn't like in love with that one
- 14:30um PFF has Malik Willis is the number
- 14:33one rushing yards quarterback so far for
- 14:36this week and taking a look at the
- 14:39Vikings and what they've done they they
- 14:40have given up this number two of the
- 14:43three outings they have not but one of
- 14:45those was a 5 carry 42 2 uh yard output
- 14:48from Caleb Williams. They're averaging
- 14:51around almost six and a half yards given
- 14:53up per rush to quarterbacks and Malik
- 14:56Willis is projected at at the minimum of
- 14:59six. So I I think the number establishes
- 15:01out well and another thing if you go and
- 15:03look at grades here, the Vikings are a
- 15:05poor passing matchup for Malik Willis.
- 15:09Coverage on the tight ends is one of the
- 15:10better ones. Wide receiver coverage is
- 15:12pretty solid. It's a slightly above
- 15:14average uh I mean defensive line rush
- 15:17there. We know they're going to just
- 15:18blitz the crap out of him. And they're
- 15:21also without Devon Anchan. They're
- 15:22without their number one weapon. I'm not
- 15:23sure that they're going to be
- 15:24comfortable with Jaylen Wright or Ali
- 15:26Gordon being in a spot to take over that
- 15:28massive checkdown receiving spot. So I
- 15:30think this is a situation more where
- 15:32Malik Willis is going to be running and
- 15:34running a lot. I'm not playing rush
- 15:35attempts. I'm playing yards and I think
- 15:37he can bust this one out. over six yards
- 15:39per carry to quarterback so far to uh
- 15:41against the Vikings and Malik Willis
- 15:43going over 50. I think we're going to
- 15:45have another run of this and to be
- 15:46honest with you, I'm not sure we're
- 15:48going to see Malik Willis under 35 yards
- 15:51rushing moving forward. So, I think this
- 15:53is the top dog. This is a low number.
- 15:5528.5 over rushing yards for Malik Willis
- 15:58with this week. That's my number two.
- 16:00And I very, very much like that one. All
- 16:02right, let's go to our third. This is
- 16:04number five overall. We've both uh
- 16:06dropped two. This is going to be our
- 16:07third props for this bad boy. Erikson,
- 16:10why don't you kick us off? You're going
- 16:11to be jumping in. We love our tight
- 16:12ends. We love to bet our tight ends for
- 16:14touchdowns. We try to get them into the
- 16:16props. And you are digging deep, my
- 16:19friend. Talk to us about Doctor Strange.
- 16:22>> Continuing to attack this Bengals
- 16:24Jaguars game. That was my one thing to
- 16:27watch on the tailgate this week because
- 16:30this game is going to be really, really
- 16:31exciting except for Chase Brown and his
- 16:33rushing attempts. Other than that, it's
- 16:35all overs across the board, including
- 16:37Breton Strange, the tight end for the
- 16:39Jacksonville Jaguars. Now, he has been
- 16:41under this number at 33 and a half
- 16:44receiving yards all three games this
- 16:45season. But similar to the bet that we
- 16:47made a couple weeks back on Rashad
- 16:49Baitman, it's just, hey, don't look at
- 16:50the box score. We're going to be
- 16:52forecasting this future matchup for
- 16:54Brettton Strange where better days are
- 16:55ahead for him. And when you look at this
- 16:58Bengals defense, they continuously bleed
- 17:01yardage to tight ends. So far this
- 17:03season, they've allowed nearly a hundred
- 17:05receiving yards per game to tight ends.
- 17:07That's second most in the NFL. Now, a
- 17:09lot of it did come in garbage time
- 17:10against Daltton Schultz back when they
- 17:12played the Houston Texans. But even
- 17:14before that late production for Schultz,
- 17:18they still had given up a decent amount
- 17:20of yardage. And the fact that this
- 17:21number is so low for a player like
- 17:22Brentton Strange, who over the last two
- 17:24weeks has run around on 82% of Trevor
- 17:27Lawrence's dropbacks. He's heavily
- 17:28involved in this offense. He plays
- 17:30almost every single snap offensively.
- 17:33The matchup is there and he's actually
- 17:34coming off his best game of the season
- 17:35where he did have three catches for over
- 17:3730 yards and five targets. So, it's
- 17:39continuing to trend upwards for Brenton
- 17:42Strange and he has been receiving some
- 17:44positive coach speak this week talking
- 17:45about how yeah, we still want to get
- 17:47Brett Strange more involved. Last week,
- 17:49they were talking about Jacobe Myers
- 17:50getting more involved and what happened.
- 17:52Jacobe Myers had his best game of the
- 17:53season. So, I'm expecting that same type
- 17:55of pattern here with Brettton Strange
- 17:57having his best game of the season in a
- 17:59very favorable matchup because that's
- 18:00how you attack this Bengals defense over
- 18:02the middle of the field with guys like
- 18:04Parker Washington and guys like Brett
- 18:06Strange. So, the fact that the Jaguars
- 18:07are going to be pushed for the first
- 18:08time all season this week and it's not
- 18:11going to be a blowout or a game against
- 18:13the Denver Broncos, a tough defense.
- 18:14You're going to see fireworks and Bren
- 18:16Strange is going to get over this really
- 18:18low number.
- 18:19>> Okay, I like it. I am going to be
- 18:20jumping to one of your guys. I think you
- 18:23had made a bet on him last week or maybe
- 18:25the second week. Give me some M.
- 18:28Collins, man. Uh M. Collins, I love what
- 18:31he looks like in this offense right now,
- 18:32especially when they decide to throw him
- 18:34the ball. Not that I like anything about
- 18:36the Patriots offense in general. But I
- 18:39am a psychopath and I'm a sicko and I
- 18:42still disgustingly believe that there's
- 18:44an opportunity for Drake May to bounce
- 18:47back. But I also don't have the coonus
- 18:50to put a bet in on Drake May this week.
- 18:52So I'm finding another direction to kind
- 18:54of uh be invested and that's in M
- 18:57Collins. And you know Matt Collins last
- 18:59week had that big banger. Six catches
- 19:02yards were there. Uh projection so far
- 19:04on BP. They're they're pseudos
- 19:06supportive of where I'm going and that
- 19:08is the receptions. I' I've definitely
- 19:09kind of honed in on the reception market
- 19:11a little bit early on because it's 3.5.
- 19:14It's a low number right now and there is
- 19:17some juice, but you can find this even
- 19:19under minus 120 in some spots and I
- 19:22think that's enough to to jump in in
- 19:25this spot. When looking at the the last
- 19:26previous matchups, they've actually
- 19:28gotten hit um the Bills have on some of
- 19:32these outside receivers, guys that can
- 19:33move around. Nico Collins had I there's
- 19:35been at least a receiver in every single
- 19:37game versus him that has obviously hit
- 19:39over this mark with a couple spots this
- 19:41happening twice, but Nico Collins had
- 19:43seven catches, Amanra, nine. Trey
- 19:45Harris, not Lad McConi was your big
- 19:47receiving marker. And if I do believe
- 19:50they're going to be competitive and
- 19:51Drake May's got a pretty heavy um if
- 19:54we're being honest, a pretty heavy re uh
- 19:56passing total, passing yards total for
- 19:58where he's been at, then I think I want
- 20:00to be invested in M. Collins here who
- 20:03last week had a 33 33% airyard share was
- 20:07running around 65% of routes 11 a dot a
- 20:1029% target share which I love and his
- 20:16where did I just lose it I wanted to
- 20:17give you his first read a 30% first read
- 20:20share so if you're going to be attacking
- 20:23these guys which by the way here are
- 20:24some corner grades Christian Benford 95
- 20:28of 100 D Alfred 96 of 100 and Maxwell
- 20:32Harrison outside the top 50 of a 100red
- 20:35in corners. You're going to be able to
- 20:37pass on them. They're probably playing
- 20:38from behind. Matt Collins has kind of
- 20:41been the number one guy or the
- 20:42possession guy and I only need four
- 20:44receptions on this. I might even play
- 20:46around and put this to five, but that's
- 20:48going to be mine. 3.5 cuz I got a record
- 20:51to uphold here. 3.5 receptions on the
- 20:54over. All right, we've got two more
- 20:56coming up across the board here. So,
- 20:58strap in because you're going to get
- 20:59your unders in. But I want to tell you
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- 21:35That's code FP pod to get $25 free after
- 21:40your deposit of just 10 bucks. All
- 21:43right, props number four. Both of us
- 21:47going to get uh in the mud here a little
- 21:49bit. So get money with get money with us
- 21:51here and not just take a dolphin, which
- 21:55I did earlier. Not just take a low
- 21:58total, but now drop an under on it,
- 22:01Erikson. Do it.
- 22:02>> Yeah, something smells fishy with uh
- 22:04these Dolphins running backs filling in
- 22:06for Devon Aan. So, I'm going to go with
- 22:08Jaylen Wright under 29 and a half
- 22:11rushing yards. And the Dolphins
- 22:14backfield has been a highly discussed
- 22:17debate, I think, this week with the
- 22:19injury to Han fantasy manager trying to
- 22:21figure out, okay, which guy am I going
- 22:22to go to? Who's going to get the volume?
- 22:24And does it even matter because they're
- 22:26facing the Brian Flores Minnesota
- 22:27Vikings defense, right? Does it actually
- 22:29even matter which one of these guys gets
- 22:30the volume? Because Welsh, I looked at
- 22:33the markets today with these two running
- 22:35backs because I was really interested in
- 22:36playing an under on either Olly Gordon
- 22:38or Jaylen Wright. And it was actually
- 22:41kind of surprising to me that Jaylen
- 22:42Wright actually has the higher numbers
- 22:44than Ollie Gordon does in the props.
- 22:46>> Ollie Gordon,
- 22:47>> well, he's first on the depth chart. I
- 22:49think that's why.
- 22:50>> And that's and that's it. the unofficial
- 22:53death chart that the the PR guy puts
- 22:56together, not the head coach. [laughter]
- 22:58Like like that's like that's
- 22:59[clears throat] to me I I think just
- 23:01kind of interesting. So the only reason
- 23:03I'm only playing Jaylen Wright instead
- 23:04of Ollie Gordon is just he has larger
- 23:07numbers whereas all the information
- 23:09that's been told to us is that it's
- 23:10going to be a full-blown committee in
- 23:12some way, shape, or form and everybody's
- 23:14going to have a different role. So
- 23:15that's what Dolphins head coach Jeff
- 23:16Hathley said that very adamant that he
- 23:18was going to use all of his guys to fill
- 23:20the void left by his star running back
- 23:22Devon Achan. Now what does that actually
- 23:24mean and translate to the field like we
- 23:26don't know. So with all this ambiguity
- 23:29I'm just pounding the under for these
- 23:31Dolphins running backs and right has the
- 23:34highest number at 29 and a half. He also
- 23:35has the highest carry total at eight and
- 23:37a half rushing attempts. So I'm not
- 23:39confident that he's necessarily going to
- 23:41see that type of volume because it could
- 23:42be a committee. Ali Gordon showed up
- 23:45last week, played very well and got a
- 23:48ton of work. Jaylen Wright's also coming
- 23:51off an injury, foot, stinger. How
- 23:54effective is he actually going to be and
- 23:55how much volume is he actually going to
- 23:56get? So, I'm kind of fading the
- 23:58confidence that at least the market is
- 24:00showing a little bit in Jaylen Wright by
- 24:02taking his under. And then going back to
- 24:04the matchup, it's absolutely terrifying.
- 24:06Vikings allowing the fourth fewest
- 24:08rushing yards per game this season.
- 24:09They've allowed the lowest EPA per rush
- 24:12this season. Also, Dolphins AllPro
- 24:14center Aaron Brewer popping up the
- 24:16injury report on Thursday with a hand
- 24:17injury. So, if he can't go or he's not
- 24:20100%. There's going to be no push up
- 24:22front for the Miami Dolphins playing on
- 24:23the road in Minnesota against this Brian
- 24:25Flores defense, I'm taking the under. I
- 24:28think this is a good process play and if
- 24:30it beats me, so be it. But one of these
- 24:32Dolphins running backs is going to
- 24:33underwhelm dramatically and just given
- 24:35the fact that the right number is a
- 24:36little bit bigger, that's where I'm
- 24:38going to go. And you know what, it's
- 24:40kind of a correlative play to my Malik
- 24:41Willis over rushing yards as well. That
- 24:43if you wanted to, you know, put some We
- 24:45have the same game, we have the parlay
- 24:46wizard, same game parlay wizard where
- 24:48that would be a correlative play to the
- 24:50over on Malik Willis and the under on
- 24:52Jaylen Wright that you could put
- 24:54together. So I like where you're going.
- 24:56Um I am going to be taking a low number,
- 24:58but I told you I'm off. I'm off of uh
- 25:01unders for this week even because lost
- 25:03one and it broke my heart. Three and
- 25:05one. Um, so we're going overs, but this
- 25:07is a low total for a stinky player so
- 25:11far this year, but this is a get-right
- 25:13spot, and it's Coulson Lovelin. Coulson
- 25:15Lovelin has a very low, rightfully so,
- 25:18receiving yard total of 33.5 this week.
- 25:23Every projection market likes the over.
- 25:25Uh BP likes the over at around 38.
- 25:28Fantasy pros, if you want to look on the
- 25:30fantasy side of the different algorithm,
- 25:31around 41. Um, one of the biggest ones,
- 25:34you know, I obviously I say PFF, I
- 25:36appreciate what they do. Uh, 55 is their
- 25:39marker and, you know, hopefully that is
- 25:42barred out to like where he's been. But
- 25:45one of the things like Lovelin last week
- 25:46doesn't jump out from like a target
- 25:48percent. He was actually only target 11%
- 25:50of the time. First read percentage
- 25:51wasn't up there. I think if Beg's in
- 25:53Beijing's going to help this situation,
- 25:55but here's a marker that helped push me
- 25:57in it. besides every projection like in
- 25:59it, besides BP giving this a positive
- 26:02grade, a positive EV market, projection
- 26:04EV is around uh 9% total on it. But when
- 26:08you go and look at cornerback grades on
- 26:10the wide receivers, because I actually
- 26:11started this off with a Luther Burton,
- 26:13but check these out. You've got three
- 26:17corners
- 26:18graded in the top 35 in the NFL, and
- 26:21you've got one who's a top 10 in Travis
- 26:23Brownley. Thomas and Stevens both inside
- 26:26the top 35. So there's a shutdown on
- 26:28Adun and on Burton and this is a
- 26:31favorable matchup bottom third against
- 26:34tight ends. Uh two of the three games
- 26:37that they've played. Yeah, the Tucker
- 26:39Craft stuff just went out, but against
- 26:40the Lions and the Titans, tight ends
- 26:42have each cotten five passes. Uh they're
- 26:44averaging four catches to tight ends
- 26:46overall and the yardage total is going
- 26:49over this with last week having 51 plus
- 26:52yards to tight ends. So all of that to
- 26:54be said, Beijing a little bit more
- 26:55efficient. They get the ball in the air.
- 26:57They're trying to get Lovelin more
- 26:58involved. Super low total, 33.5. Give me
- 27:02the over on Coulson Lovelin. It's dirty.
- 27:05It's nasty, but we're going to get back
- 27:07there. And we are going to end this bad
- 27:08boy off with some quarterback props.
- 27:10These are our final for the week here.
- 27:12We both got a quarterback that we're
- 27:13going to be playing. So, Erikson, will
- 27:16you go over 50% on unders? You got two
- 27:19overs, two unders. Where are we going?
- 27:23>> We're going back to the unders here. And
- 27:26this one kind of pains me because it
- 27:27involves the Detroit Lions, which I
- 27:29usually never will bet an under. But
- 27:32this game, the Lions and Panthers, is
- 27:34not being played at Fordfield, the
- 27:36chorus field of the NFL. It's being
- 27:37played in Carolina where forecast is
- 27:40actually calling for some potential
- 27:41rain, which I really hope doesn't
- 27:44actually happen because that would just
- 27:46ruin a lot because we know this Lions
- 27:49team just acts totally different. Jared
- 27:51Goff's indoor cat. That being said, I
- 27:53still think even in pristine conditions,
- 27:55there's a chance he goes under this
- 27:57passing attempt number, which is listed
- 27:58at 34 and a half passing attempts.
- 28:00Five-star bet on the prop bet cheat
- 28:02sheet this week. Jared Goff has gone
- 28:04under this number three games as a road
- 28:07favorite. He's been under this number in
- 28:08five of his last 10 road games. Carolina
- 28:11has faced the sixth lowest pass rate
- 28:12this season. To me, this is a matchup
- 28:15where you don't put Jared Goff out there
- 28:17in the elements and you just feed Jamir
- 28:18Gibbs. like that seems like it would be
- 28:20the perfect game plan against this
- 28:21terrible Panthers run defense. That's
- 28:23how teams have attacked Carolina so far
- 28:25this year. Three quarterbacks they have
- 28:27faced, nobody has attempted more than 30
- 28:29pass attempts against them. So, the
- 28:30projection is leaning hard into the
- 28:32under. And if there is a chance where
- 28:34the rain is legit, then there's no way
- 28:37that the Lions are going to feel
- 28:38comfortable dropping back to throw with
- 28:39Jared Goff 34 and a half times because
- 28:41that's just not his strength, especially
- 28:43in outdoor conditions. So, I'm taking
- 28:45the under here and I think this is
- 28:46probably one of my favorite plays as
- 28:48well. I like it. Uh, this one I kind of
- 28:50dove into too. I don't think I've done a
- 28:52passing touchdown marker this week, but
- 28:54uh, or this year so far, but this one I
- 28:56love. And I am going to Jordan. Love the
- 29:00team that has no running game
- 29:01whatsoever. Going up against a
- 29:02Buccaneers team that is messy. It's a
- 29:04messy defense. It's a messy offense with
- 29:06Jaylen Daniels out there. And there's
- 29:09one thing that Jordan Love does this
- 29:10year, or at least the Packers do. Throw
- 29:13touchdowns. He's had two touchdowns in
- 29:15every single game he's played so far
- 29:17this year. And that is the marker. And
- 29:19by the way, I believe, unless I just
- 29:21fooled myself out of it, uh, it's plus
- 29:23money right around even, but I I'm
- 29:25seeing some plus money on 1.5 over on
- 29:28the touchdowns. And that's where I'm
- 29:30going to be rocking Buccaneers. They
- 29:32only have one game where they've given
- 29:33up over two touchdowns, but I think you
- 29:35have an extra messy situation that's
- 29:37going on so far. They don't cover tight
- 29:38ends well. They're not covering running
- 29:40backs well. Wide receivers is a little
- 29:42better play, but there isn't much of a
- 29:43pass rush that's happening whatsoever.
- 29:46So, this team isn't going to run. We
- 29:48just know they're going to pass. Get
- 29:49Tucker Craft involved. I desperately was
- 29:53thinking about doing my Christian Watson
- 29:54first touchdown play. Golden has stepped
- 29:56up. This is just a phenomenal situation
- 29:59and the Buccaneers might be turning the
- 30:00ball over multiple times. This might hit
- 30:02in the first half. 1.5 over touchdowns
- 30:05for Jordan Love. That is my final prop.
- 30:08Those are 10 props that we have locked
- 30:10into, but we ain't done. We are going to
- 30:13get to some touchdowns here. We both hit
- 30:14a touchdown last week. If you guys want
- 30:16to get in on the action, go to
- 30:17bettingpros.com/touchdown.
- 30:20You can touch uh check out the touchdown
- 30:22score report. Looking for an edge in
- 30:24touchdown bets. Our touchdown score
- 30:25report compares anytime touchdown stats
- 30:27to prop bet odds and projections to help
- 30:29identify the best anytime bets? Head to
- 30:31bettingpros.com/touchdown
- 30:34for the latest touchdown prop analysis.
- 30:36Today, Mr. Andrew Ericson, let's talk
- 30:39some touchdowns here. You are in the
- 30:41green. you have hit uh I think two of
- 30:44three weeks at least. You've got a
- 30:45couple touchdown calls here. So, where
- 30:48are you going uh this week?
- 30:50>> Wherever the Lions are going is where
- 30:52I'm going to attack because that has
- 30:54worked for my process. Joan Johnson,
- 30:56week one, who did he play? Detroit Lions
- 30:58scored a touchdown. Week three, Kenyan
- 31:00Sadique scored a touchdown. Who did he
- 31:02play? Welsh. Oh, yeah. The Detroit
- 31:04Lions. So, that's the process, man.
- 31:06That's how you hit on touchdown bets is
- 31:08you pick the players that are facing the
- 31:10Detroit Lions. So I have a twofur here
- 31:13today. I have two Carolina Panthers in
- 31:15my anytime touchdown bet calls. Tetto
- 31:18McMillan is going to score a touchdown
- 31:20this week against the Carolina Panthers
- 31:23or excuse me against the Detroit Lions.
- 31:25He plays for the Carolina Panthers.
- 31:27T-Mac has seen the most red zone targets
- 31:29and endzone targets this season among
- 31:32wide receivers without a touchdown yet.
- 31:34So he got shut down last week against
- 31:36the Cleveland Browns, but that will not
- 31:38be the case, especially with Jaylen
- 31:39Coker banged up. He's going to be the
- 31:41focal point of this passing attack
- 31:42against a really bad line secondary. So
- 31:44I think he finds the end zone or have
- 31:45opportunities to find the end zone. And
- 31:47then the same kind of spiel with Darren
- 31:49Waller, just specifically how bad the
- 31:51lines have been against tight ends.
- 31:52They've allowed six receiving touchdowns
- 31:55to tight ends in three games. Six
- 31:57different tight ends have caught a
- 31:58touchdown against the Detroit Lions and
- 32:01Darren Waller will be the seventh. So,
- 32:02those are my anytime touchdown bets.
- 32:04Attack these Lions.
- 32:06>> I love it. All right. Um, what does five
- 32:09touchdowns do for you? Uh, well, that
- 32:11number is the amount of touchdowns that
- 32:13the Commanders have given up to tight
- 32:15ends this season. Five touchdowns is a
- 32:19ridiculous marker. Two touchdowns
- 32:21against the Eagles to tight ends, two
- 32:23down the Cowboys, and last week um, one.
- 32:26So, obviously that would that would be
- 32:27the math. I was thinking it was AJ
- 32:28Barner, but it was Sherbet. Five
- 32:30touchdowns given up. Every single week
- 32:32there's been a touchdown given up. So,
- 32:35how about Tyler Warren with a plus 160
- 32:38this week for an anytime touchdown.
- 32:39They're not afraid to even use him on a
- 32:40little handoff and short yardage, but uh
- 32:44this is a massive massive advantage.
- 32:46We've also talked about Josh Downs. I
- 32:47mean, I think that's also a play that
- 32:48you can jump into, but tight ends are a
- 32:51huge crutch. Really, anything on the
- 32:53inside, it seems Josh Downs is going to
- 32:54be beneficial, but I think this is going
- 32:56to be a really good spot for Tyler
- 32:57Warren. So, plus 160 is mine. And then
- 33:00I've got the biggest anytime play here.
- 33:02I'm gonna go to our boy Drake May. Told
- 33:04you I think he's going to get right. I
- 33:06guess I did find my way to be invested
- 33:07in him. Uh he actually had two rushing
- 33:10touchdowns last year versus the Bills.
- 33:12Like we've seen this play from Drake May
- 33:15before where he starts to run. He
- 33:16doesn't have a rushing touchdown so far
- 33:17on the season. I do think they can pass
- 33:19some, but when they get into short
- 33:21yardage, they're desperate. He's
- 33:23desperate. He's talking about the
- 33:24shoulder. It's not the shoulder. Well,
- 33:25guess what? Put your shoulder down.
- 33:27Bring it into the end zone. 5 to one
- 33:29plus 500 for Drake May on something that
- 33:32he has done against this Bills team
- 33:34before and I believe this would be the
- 33:36first uh rushing touchdown to buy a
- 33:38quarterback against for the Bills as
- 33:40well. So plus 500 is my play for that.
- 33:42>> I I love that call and this is something
- 33:44that I've kind of been tracking where
- 33:47every week you see guys get touchdowns
- 33:50but then they call back on penalty. So
- 33:52Drake May had a rushing touchdown last
- 33:54week but it got called got back on a
- 33:56penalty. And there have been times this
- 33:58season where guys one week Darren Waller
- 34:01in week two or excuse me in week one had
- 34:03a touchdown was called back on a
- 34:04penalty. What did he do the next week?
- 34:06Scored a touchdown. Cooper Cup in week
- 34:08one against the Patriots had a touchdown
- 34:10was called back. Cooper Cup last week
- 34:12scored a touchdown. Like the coaches
- 34:14remember when these plays work and then
- 34:17they go back to it the following week.
- 34:19So I think that this is a really sharp
- 34:20play especially at five to one. I'm
- 34:22gonna be watching that game very closely
- 34:24and I think uh I think I'm gonna be
- 34:25tailing this one.
- 34:27>> I know. I know you will. Of course you
- 34:28will be. You'll be locked in. All right,
- 34:30our final one. We've been having a ton
- 34:31of fun. Oh, we ain't been cashing it,
- 34:33but there's big there's big odds for a
- 34:35reason here. Uh our first touchdown bets
- 34:38this week. No joke. Not accidental, by
- 34:41the way. We have both gone 65 to1. This
- 34:46this sets you up for the year. I gotta
- 34:48tell you, there were two I was looking
- 34:50at was looking at Christian Watson again
- 34:53because all he does is catch first
- 34:54touchdowns. It's seven and a half to one
- 34:56for him to do that right now though.
- 34:58>> Trey McBride is another one that I
- 35:00thought was really interesting. I almost
- 35:01did anytime touchdown, but I was too
- 35:04tempted as you were. So, we are complete
- 35:06psychopath mode. 65 to1 are both of our
- 35:10first touchdown plays. So, please talk
- 35:13to us about your player and give us the
- 35:15pronunciation.
- 35:17I'm going with Nate Boracher for the
- 35:20Jacksonville Jaguars tight end, rookie
- 35:23tight end at 65 to1 to catch the first
- 35:26touchdown.
- 35:27>> In the past, when I've been able to hit
- 35:29on some of these bigger long shot bets,
- 35:31it's always been I find a game that's
- 35:33high scoring and you pick a random tight
- 35:35end on one of the teams and then you
- 35:37just go
- 35:38>> a guy that has five syllables in the
- 35:40name. Gotcha.
- 35:41>> Preferably, the longer the better is is
- 35:44actually what we're the approach here.
- 35:45So, I will say positive coach beat for
- 35:49Boracher and last week he had one target
- 35:54and it was inside the 10 yard line.
- 35:56[clears throat]
- 35:56>> Oh,
- 35:56>> so okay.
- 35:57>> It was close. He did not catch the ball,
- 36:00but he was out there in goal line
- 36:02opportunities. So, if the Jaguars strike
- 36:04first against Cincinnati Bengals, I
- 36:06assume that they're going to try to come
- 36:07out aggressive because they know the
- 36:09firepower that's on the other side with
- 36:11Joe Burrow and company. I think that if
- 36:13it's not Brettton Strange scoring the
- 36:15first touchdown, it could be Borcer. So
- 36:17at 65 to1 again, Patriots, Bills,
- 36:21Jaguars, Bengals, those are my two games
- 36:24I'm going to be locked and loaded in the
- 36:25one:00 slate. So uh and I know Welsh,
- 36:28you're going back to the 49ers after. I
- 36:29mean, Kyle, the Kyle play should have
- 36:32hit in some way, shape, or I couldn't I
- 36:34couldn't believe it didn't hit, but
- 36:36you're not you're you're not going to be
- 36:37swayed to go away from your N.
- 36:40No, I gota be honest with you, I almost
- 36:41went back to use. This feels like the
- 36:43week they go back to it. I almost did
- 36:45it, but uh I decided to go. I thought
- 36:47this one was nice and dirty and it's
- 36:48great. If Mike Evans plays awesome, is
- 36:52it likely that he doesn't andor is super
- 36:54limited? Yes. There are no live bodies.
- 36:57They were picking up Brandon Cooks and
- 36:58Dante Pettis. But you know who they do
- 37:00like to put out there? They like to put
- 37:01out Jordan Watkins. Jordan Watkins they
- 37:03like to play as a three. And if Evans is
- 37:05out, he can kind of play that role. you
- 37:08astutely talked about on I don't
- 37:10remember if it was tailgate but how we
- 37:13might see Certan start to lock down on
- 37:16the middle for a George KD and they
- 37:18might go play action Christian McCaffrey
- 37:20and bam Mr. I mean, Debo doesn't catch
- 37:23passes. He just gets yards. He doesn't
- 37:24get receptions. Jordan Watkins does. 65
- 37:27to1 Jordan Watkins first touchdown. Lock
- 37:30it up. But, you know, it'll be Kyle use
- 37:32check. Maybe play a little bit on both
- 37:34of those. All right, there you go. Uh,
- 37:35those are our plays, but what are yours?
- 37:37Your favorite props? Drop them below.
- 37:39You got a first touchdown? Oh, baby.
- 37:41Let's see what those look like. Jump in
- 37:43the comments, interact with the show.
- 37:45Hopefully, you guys are enjoying it,
- 37:46having fun, and download the Betting
- 37:47Pros app as well. So, not only can you
- 37:50track all of your bets, track your
- 37:51success throughout, track your favorite
- 37:53markets, betting pros app will also be
- 37:56able to curate ba based on some of your
- 37:58betting tendency tendencies. It's going
- 38:00to throw you out some suggestions, but
- 38:01there's lots of data to research. It is
- 38:03an amazing tool. We got lots of
- 38:05different systems as well, tracking how
- 38:08there's positive ROI. Go and check it
- 38:10out for yourself. Download the betting
- 38:11pros app. That is going to do it for us
- 38:13though for Andrew Ericson. I'm Chris
- 38:15Welsh. Good luck on all your bets for
- 38:17week four. We'll talk to you next time
- 38:19right here on Betting Pros.
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