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Tom Lee: "The Crypto Bull Market Just Started”, How ETH Hits $50,000 — Transcript

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0:00But on the crypto, yeah, I mean, crypto
0:02bull market just started.
0:03>> Today, I sit down with 30-year market
0:05veteran Tom Lee.
0:07>> I've been a research analyst for the
0:09last 30 years. I'm the founder of uh one
0:12of the largest independent research
0:14firms called Fundstrap and I'm also the
0:17chairman of Bitmine Immersion
0:18Technology, which is the largest holder
0:21of Ethereum in the world. as he shares
0:22his outlook for crypto in 2027 and
0:25beyond.
0:26>> I think this is going to be potentially
0:27one of the biggest ever crypto bull
0:29cycles that we've seen.
0:31>> The looming stock market AI bubble.
0:33>> People who call things a bubble early
0:36are not actually smart. They're the ones
0:39who've actually missed out on on the
0:41rally. And the one thing that could
0:43absolutely kill this upcoming crypto
0:45bull market,
0:46>> the single entity that has killed every
0:48bull market um is
0:50>> watch today's entire conversation.
0:52>> The best practical financial advice that
0:54I've heard and I'm going to share this
0:56with everyone
0:57>> so you understand everything. Do you
0:59think Ethereum will always stay number
1:01two to Bitcoin or is the addressable
1:03market bigger? Including the single
1:05greatest trade in markets that most
1:08don't see yet. The easiest trade like
1:11I'd say like quote alpha or it'll be a
1:14high sharp ratio to me is
1:16>> click subscribe so you never miss
1:17conversations like this and let's start.
1:20And you started your career at JP Morgan
1:22from I believe 1999 to 2014. You saw
1:26multiple bubbles pop. Um could you just
1:30go over some of your biggest wins that
1:32you had that nobody saw at the time?
1:35>> Glad to. uh and foremost actually I
1:38started in the early 90s at Kitter
1:39Peabody
1:41um and then Solomon Brothers and then JP
1:45Morgan before starting Funstrap. Uh I
1:48grew up as a technology analyst in the
1:50early 90s. Um self the cell phone
1:54industry and internet grew up
1:56concurrently
1:58uh and they were both scurve industries.
2:00When I started there were only 56
2:02million cell phones in the world. Today
2:03there's roughly 9 billion and that
2:06growth that S-curve growth took 30
2:08years. Um, but a couple of things that I
2:12think are really my big takeaways over
2:14my career is number one, when I look
2:17back at the internet and mobile boom,
2:21even though that was a 30-year boom, the
2:25stocks associated with internet and
2:28mobile all peaked at the same time and
2:30roughly 10 years into the cycle. So, if
2:33you're thinking about how AI plays out,
2:35it's going to be very similar in my
2:37opinion that you're going to see AI
2:38stocks peak really 10 years into this
2:41cycle, which would be if Chat GBT was
2:442023, 2033.
2:48Um, but I I'd say my takeaway really
2:51looking at a lot of these big huge boom
2:54and bust cycles because there was the
2:55internet boom and bust and then that was
2:58followed by a housing boom and bust and
3:01then there was a biotech boom and bust
3:04and then a crypto boom and bust.
3:06Multiples of those and of course we had
3:08the COVID boom and bust. And uh you know
3:12my takeaways are number one,
3:16people who call things a bubble early
3:19are not actually smart. They're the ones
3:22who've actually missed out on on the
3:24rally. You know, I think a bubble is
3:26really historically correctly defined as
3:29when someone else is making money, you
3:32consider it a bubble, you know. Um and
3:36uh second, when the bubble is bursting,
3:40the opposite's true. People have
3:41unrelenting optimism about the continued
3:45uh and staunch support of that in the
3:47face of terrible price action. Um now,
3:52in the in the middle of all that,
3:54there's always going to be a lot of
3:55corrections. Um, I mean that's what
3:58we've been telling our clients at
3:59Funstread about which is between 1993
4:03and 1999 or 2000 which was the peak of
4:06the internet boom
4:09Cisco which is like the Nvidia of today
4:13four years into actually three years
4:16into that first cycle. So 9 uh4 to 97
4:21which really aligns with chat GBT 2023
4:24to now had a 50% decline and it was
4:28because the Fed chair at the time said
4:30there was irrational exuberance and he
4:32actually then later followed it up by
4:34threatening to hike to slow the economy
4:36and then Cisco missed numbers and the
4:38stock fell by roughly half but a year
4:41later Cisco tripled off the bottom
4:43actually almost quadrupled.
4:45So, uh, I think that's where we are
4:47today. Um, and I guess the other insight
4:51I'd point out is people never really get
4:53bottoms right, cuz at the bottom people
4:54always turn negative. And I think that's
4:56really evident with crypto and AI today
4:58that I think bottoms aren't when people
5:01flip positive. It's just people are
5:04unrelentingly bearish and price action
5:06is better. So, in those early years,
5:09even before you found crypto, those were
5:11some of the big wins. What were some of
5:13like what was a mistake you made that
5:15you learned from early on in your
5:16career?
5:19Uh well, let me highlight I think common
5:22mistakes other people have made because
5:24I think that this might really speak to
5:28like so I think the audience tends to be
5:31very reliant on like quote experts, you
5:33know, or like what is their own common
5:36sense
5:38and maybe even like the expert on
5:41they're listening to aligns with their
5:43own thinking. Therefore, they think
5:45that's what happens. The problem with
5:47that is that's what's called consensus.
5:49Like that's what everyone thinks. And if
5:52everyone thinks the same way, there's no
5:54opportunity to make money. You know, you
5:56have to essentially be contrarian.
5:59And I think the things that people make
6:01mistakes on and we see the common
6:04pitfalls today is that
6:07the best in my like in the internet
6:10period
6:12the best times to be buying the stocks.
6:15Okay. The first best time, the number
6:18one best time is when everybody is
6:21negative,
6:23but the fundamentals diverge positively.
6:27Okay? And that's 100% like a win rate
6:31because if the trajectory is positive,
6:35but the stocks are selling off for other
6:37reasons or people think it's expensive,
6:39um, you're going to make money. The
6:41second best way to make money is of
6:43course when the cycle is so strong and
6:46people aren't bullish enough. Um
6:49but uh the worst time to make money is
6:52when everyone's bullish
6:54and you can't really think of another
6:56reason to be more bullish. Okay? And
6:59that happened late in the cycle. And
7:03think of it this way. late in the cycle
7:05for internet there were all these
7:07companies going public but they were all
7:09pitching the same story
7:11and none of them were actually changing
7:13your life you know so I think that if
7:16you're thinking about AI and crypto if
7:18there's a point we're reaching where
7:21there is isn't really any reason that
7:23our lives would get better from having
7:25uh this technology in our lives then I
7:27think you've reached the peak um but I
7:30don't think that's the case you know one
7:32in AI for instance there's still massive
7:35massive discoveries taking place
7:38um and companies are seeing huge payoffs
7:41from all this. So there's room for a lot
7:43of spending and displacement and in
7:46crypto it's just the earliest days of
7:48tokenization and transformation of the
7:50financial system. I mean at the end of
7:52the day the banking system really wants
7:54to redo their settlement rails and it
7:58looks like it's going to be on crypto.
7:59So we're just at the front end of that
8:02move. So, let's uh I would want to hear
8:05your outlook on crypto specifically into
8:072027, but just for the audience at home,
8:09we're recording this the day of
8:11midterms, so we don't really know the US
8:13midterms where Congress went. Um, what
8:16is your outlook for crypto specifically,
8:18if that even is affected by midterms in
8:20Q4?
8:22Um yeah, we again if your audience isn't
8:26in the US, you know, we have midterm
8:29elections today in the US and it just
8:34roughly one-third of the Senate and the
8:36entire House of Representatives
8:38has to be up for election
8:42and the prediction markets and polling
8:45are expecting Republicans to lose
8:49the Senate. Currently, it's controlled
8:51by Republicans and then they're
8:53expecting the Democrats to take the
8:55House. That's both what the prediction
8:57markets and the polls are saying. So, I
8:59might say, you know, it's probably safe.
9:02Let's just say that that's a good base
9:04case. And then a surprise, of course,
9:05would be if Republicans keep the Senate.
9:07But that, let's just say for now, that's
9:09not the base case. Uh, I the reason
9:13stocks and crypto have been selling off
9:15into a midterm election day is because
9:19if Democrats take control of Congress,
9:23well, they've been very vocal that
9:24they're anti-AI and they voted down the
9:27Clarity Act. So, they basically appear
9:30to be both anti-AII and anti-crypto
9:34and therefore,
9:35you know, stocks are have been under
9:37pressure into this election day. It's a
9:40pretty unusual pattern because
9:41historically stocks trade well into mid
9:43midterm elections. And um but the reason
9:47I think that this is not actually
9:49bearish for tech and AI and it's not
9:52bearish for crypto is the following.
9:55First,
9:56um, even if the Democrats take the
9:59Senate and the House,
10:02it doesn't mean they can actually pass
10:04anti-crypto and anti-AI legislation
10:06because the president has veto power. So
10:10unless the Senate gets six 2/3
10:14of them of the House and two/3s of the
10:17Senate to vote in favor of the vetoed
10:20bill, they can't overturn a presidential
10:23veto.
10:25Okay. Now, the second reason, so
10:29basically, there isn't going to be any
10:30chance to get legislation done. If
10:33anything,
10:36you know, Congress's focus is going to
10:38just be trying to impeach President
10:40Trump.
10:41Now, the second thing to keep in mind is
10:43that if the Democrats take the House
10:47and let's say if they even take the
10:48Senate, they're very likely to flip pro-
10:51data center and pro- crypto because now
10:56that they control Congress,
10:58the money that these data centers bring
11:01into the community and the the lobbying
11:03money that the crypto money would be
11:05spending would just go to the Democrats.
11:08So they're very likely to support
11:10legislation because one it brings jobs
11:12and money and plus they're getting
11:14political support. So uh there isn't
11:17really political spending associated
11:19with anti-data center. Um there's a lot
11:23more pro data center money because it's
11:24basically like the entire technology
11:26industry.
11:28And um the third reason that I think
11:31tech and AI and crypto trade well after
11:35uh midterms is it's just seasonal. You
11:38know, these stocks have priced in a lot
11:40of bad news and historically markets
11:41really rally after midterm elections.
11:44And then fourth and finally,
11:47there's an outside chance the Senate
11:49keeps stays Republican. And if it does,
11:52I I actually think that would be the
11:53biggest rally. I don't I'm not expecting
11:55it. I'm not, you know, I don't have any
11:56insider knowledge or inside insights,
11:58but if somehow the Republicans keep the
12:00Senate, that would be very, very
12:02positive.
12:05>> And either way, you know, this is just a
12:08sort of noise for into 2027, the
12:10adoption cycle of tech, AI, crypto is
12:12getting bigger. Um, what is uh what is
12:16your investor's thesis going into 2027
12:19and beyond? I know specifically for ETH
12:21and how that fits into crypto adoption.
12:24>> Yeah. Uh well, I'm going to say for 2027
12:27equities, you know, we don't we're not
12:29talking about that until after I publish
12:30my own book, uh which is in early
12:33December. But on the crypto, yeah, I
12:36mean, crypto bull market just started.
12:38Um you know, and you know, I not I think
12:43we're seeing this on ample display, but
12:45you know, because crypto winter
12:47basically ended, which was about a year,
12:50and now we're in a new bull cycle. I
12:53think crypto is going to still rise in
12:57the face of bad news and you know to me
13:01the cycle you know we always have to
13:03think about what's going to drive the
13:04cycle well the last two cycles one of
13:06the cycles was about NFTTS and the NFT
13:09boom and last year it was about stable
13:11coins I think that this cycle is going
13:14to be very much about Wall Street
13:16adoption which is tokenizing not just
13:19dollars which are stable coins but
13:21tokenizing all assets assets and then
13:23building a lot of settlement rails on
13:26crypto. So, I think this is going to be
13:28potentially one of the biggest ever
13:29crypto bull cycles that we've seen.
13:33>> And Ethereum's uh uh position in that I
13:36know they're the biggest for stable
13:37coins. They're the biggest for RWAs. You
13:39expect that to continue?
13:42Yeah, I think um you know what so what
13:45will characterize the cycle is the
13:48financial system essentially embracing
13:51blockchain
13:53as a way to protect themselves from AI.
13:56you know, AI is getting very good at
13:58exploiting
14:00uh structural vulnerabilities, you know,
14:02and that means that they can break into
14:06corporate databases and and cyber, you
14:09know, the cyber defenses of traditional
14:12companies and blockchain will provide a
14:16a chain of custody and record and smart
14:20contracts that actually protect the
14:22financial system. I I think that that's
14:23gaining increasing appeal and public
14:27blockchains actually, you know, tend are
14:29going to be the most censorship
14:30resistance. So to me, uh I think this is
14:34going to be a lot about Ethereum and so
14:36people, you know, Bitcoin is still going
14:37to be important, but I think this this
14:39cycle is going to be very much about
14:41smart contracts and tokenization and the
14:43biggest platform out there is Ethereum.
14:46>> Um when other blockchains mention faster
14:49and cheaper, like does that concern you
14:51at all?
14:53Uh well, historically, faster and
14:55cheaper of course had tradeoffs
14:58um and and and those trade-offs were
15:00trade-offs with security, but uh as you
15:04as many of the audience knows, you know,
15:05Ethereum already is in the process of
15:07implementing its own upgrades. So, as a
15:09layer 1, Ethereum uh is never is not
15:13going to have slow speed really be an
15:17issue anymore. And on top of that, of
15:19course, many L2s or blockchains are
15:24running on Ethereum, settling on
15:26Ethereum, so using the Ethereum security
15:28model, but could offer ultra ultra high
15:31fast um and you know, network and
15:34transaction speeds.
15:37>> What inning do you think we're in for
15:39Ethereum adoption?
15:41>> Oh, we're in the earliest days. uh
15:45we're in the earliest days because every
15:48since 2009
15:50which is the Bitcoin inception so 15
15:53years sorry 17 years later
15:57that entire 17-ear period has been about
16:00individual adoption and self-
16:03sovereignty
16:04um and essentially providing banking
16:07services to the unbanked um so crypto I
16:11think really flourished outside of
16:13developed countries. Um, and then of
16:15course in the US a lot of technology
16:18early tech adopters used Bitcoin and
16:20crypto.
16:22But this cycle I think is going to bring
16:23in a new wave of corporations and banks
16:27really using blockchain
16:29uh because of tokenized assets and we're
16:32already seeing it you know companies
16:33like Robin Hood you know these sort of
16:35leading edge financial services
16:37companies and generationally
16:39significant. you know, Robin Hood is
16:42is the millennial's
16:44main financial provider. Uh are already
16:48making a big push into crypto.
16:51>> Do you think I mean this term gets
16:53thrown around so much? I I don't know
16:55what to think. Do you think we're in a
16:57super cycle for crypto?
17:00>> Uh yeah, I mean super cycle is a good
17:02word. I mean, I think for everyone it
17:05just it really means it's a long bull
17:07market and you know, past bull markets
17:10have had massive moves. I mean, Ethereum
17:13in past moves gained
17:1715 to 51 times its starting price.
17:22So, if we're at 25 2300 currently for
17:27Ethereum, you know, this this would be
17:30moves towards 50,000 for ETH. Uh, do I
17:34think that this cycle can play out in
17:35that manner? Yeah, I I I don't see why I
17:38wouldn't.
17:40>> It seems like
17:42Tom, I agree with you. It seems so
17:44obvious once you like do the research
17:45and do the homework about crypto and
17:47Bitcoin and ETH specifically to me
17:49seemed poised for institutional
17:51adoption.
17:52What do you think? Do you think Ethereum
17:55will always stay number two to Bitcoin
17:56or is the addressable market bigger?
18:00Uh well, one, you know, Bitcoin
18:04today is the store value story. Uh and
18:07Ethereum was really uh basically like,
18:10you know, the financialization um of
18:13Wall Street.
18:15But I I think increasingly in my
18:17conversations with both
18:20uh traditional asset managers but also
18:22uh you know crypto people is that I I
18:26think things like Ethereum
18:28because they're essentially working
18:30capital you know it's proof of stake but
18:32people are going to hold Ethereum uh
18:35because it's
18:37you know it is the it is essentially the
18:39collateral layer for a lot of
18:40transactions means that ETH itself self.
18:45Uh they call it a Lindy effect, but I
18:48think ETH is going to become a store of
18:50value. I think people are going to view
18:52ETH as money. Uh because it is the pair
18:56that's going to be the most widely used
18:58for tokenization. So I I think as part
19:00of that narrative flip, ETH is money.
19:04ETH is held. You know, ETH is basically
19:07a store of value. I I think it could
19:08become more valuable or it should become
19:10more valuable than Bitcoin.
19:13And when you say when you talk about the
19:14long-term price thesis um up to $50,000
19:18the bullcase it's like what the
19:21catalysts that drive that the most it is
19:23tokenization and stable coins
19:27it's it's a lot of things um you know
19:30there's a lot of folks that have
19:31long-term targets of Ethereum around
19:33250,000 you know one of them is Joe
19:35Luben uh from consensus and MetaMask um
19:40but there's others and Their rationale
19:44is that as ETH becomes store value, it
19:47starts to reflect the underlying
19:52the it becomes the base layer of
19:54whatever pledge collateral it holds. And
19:56I think that actually makes a lot of
19:57sense. I mean, for instance, the value
20:00of the dollar collectively is equal to
20:03the GDP that it's storing, right? I
20:05mean, so in other words, like the dollar
20:07isn't we don't say the dollar is worth 1
20:11one millionth of the the assets it's
20:13actually storing the value for. It's
20:15equal to the value of everything it's
20:17storing value for. And I think that
20:19that's going to be true of Ethereum. And
20:22uh historically, it's been tracking
20:24anyways. You know, if you look at the
20:25amount of assets on an RWA and tokenized
20:28basis, it's always been a multiple of
20:31the actual network value of Ethereum.
20:34So, I'm I'm talking, you know, years in
20:37the future, but just as an as a retail
20:40participant, what signals should I be
20:42looking for to tell me the trend is
20:45going to change into into a bubble
20:47popping or a recession? I'm not talking
20:49about the 30% down trends or the 50. I'm
20:52talking about like the big one. What do
20:55I look for?
20:57Well, uh, I mean, first of all, I think
20:59it's very early because I don't think
21:00we're anywhere near a top for crypto.
21:02And maybe just the best example of that
21:04is
21:07last week the largest ever exploit of a
21:11crypto company was disclosed. You know,
21:13$6.3 billion of a hack of a crypto
21:16exchange. 6.3 billion.
21:20And Ethereum prices are basically flat.
21:23It was at 2330 before this was disclosed
21:26and Ethereum's at 20
21:30currently at 2288. I mean it's basically
21:33the same level
21:36when
21:38in 2025 the buy bit hack was announced
21:40and again it was a nation state actor
21:42that exploited a crypto exchange and
21:44there was $1.5 billion drained. Ethereum
21:47fell 20% within five days and you know
21:51it's been more than five days since the
21:53exploit. So to me I think it's more
21:56indicative of where we are in the cycle
21:58that we're in the midst of a pretty
22:00early bull cycle that crypto doesn't
22:02even go down in pretty bad news.
22:06Tom Altcoin Daily speaks to millions of
22:09subscribers around the world and they
22:11want to know about Bitine. you guys are
22:13very close to accumulating 5% of the
22:16Ethereum supply as was the goal. What
22:19happens next?
22:21>> Um yeah, and just to give people uh some
22:24perspective, uh we want to be, you know,
22:28we're a Ethereum treasury company.
22:32Uh we do have some moonshots as well,
22:34but we're our primary focus is having
22:37the maximum
22:38and positive greater than one exposure
22:41to Ethereum. And that's been the case
22:43that you know and when Ethereum rises we
22:45outperform Ethereum
22:47and uh we currently own 6.06
22:52million Ethereum
22:54ETH tokens. 5% of the supply currently
22:57would be 6.1 million ETH. So we're about
23:0040,000
23:02ETH away from owning um 5% of the
23:05network.
23:07Now once we get to 5%
23:10we're not in a rush to do anything and I
23:12think for now that we are going to not
23:15acquire more than 5% of Ethereum. Uh
23:19partly that was a request from the
23:21Ethereum founders Justin Drake and
23:23Vitalik both at this time don't want to
23:27have excess concentration of ETH held by
23:29a single entity but we're in a good
23:31position anyways because you know we're
23:33generating almost 3%
23:36return on our ETH that is staked. That's
23:41more than $400 million a year in
23:44profits.
23:46uh which means we're in a very good
23:47position
23:49uh to to create a lot of shareholder
23:52value with that. I think the biggest
23:54priority for instance will be we would
23:57consider stock buybacks because every
23:59time we buy back stock we're increasing
24:01the amount of Ethereum. See we'll hold
24:03the same amount of Ethereum but if we're
24:05buying back stock then the amount of
24:08Ethereum held per share is going to keep
24:11growing.
24:12Um, we also have some moonshots, you
24:15know, where we have a lot of confidence
24:16that we're going to make money owning
24:18these. You know, we're the largest
24:20corporate investor in Beast Industries,
24:23which is Mr. Beast, for instance. And,
24:25you know, he is the world's biggest
24:26content creator. We have an investment
24:29in Sam Olman's um project called
24:33Worldcoin through 8CO. We're the largest
24:36shareholder of
24:39um and that's publicly traded as Orbs.
24:41And we have uh other moonshot
24:44investments which I'm not sure we've
24:45disclosed um specifically, but we have
24:48several others as well.
24:50>> Do you think you'll hit 5% this year in
24:522026?
24:54>> I mean, it's very likely. Uh we'll
24:57probably, you know, we'll it's early
24:59November. We'll likely hit hit it before
25:01the end of the year. Yes.
25:03>> Tom, in our final few minutes, I have
25:05some speed round questions. Um just, you
25:07know, a sentence or two or a word on
25:09each. Um, but question number one, what
25:12is the best financial advice you ever
25:14heard?
25:17>> The best the best practical financial
25:20advice that I've heard and I'm going to
25:22share this with everyone and this is for
25:24their own personal lives. Do not borrow
25:28too much money for your investing. Which
25:31means do not use too much leverage.
25:33Okay? And I witnessed this when I was a
25:36young analyst at Solomon Brothers and
25:38there were those two huge corrections.
25:41One in 1997, you know, the market fell
25:4420% and Cisco fell 50% twice. It
25:47happened 1997 and then it happened in
25:491998.
25:51I know people that literally lost all
25:53their money.
25:55And yet remember Cisco went from $9 to
25:58five, then to 18, then to $9, and then
26:02to 80. So if someone didn't have to sell
26:04it a single time,
26:07they went from 80 cents to $80. They
26:09made 100x on basically the biggest
26:11company in America.
26:13But a lot of people got stopped out
26:15because they use leverage. So I I would
26:17strongly urge people that
26:21only properly applied leverage, but if
26:23it's going to force you to get sold and
26:26sell positions that you need to hold,
26:28then you've got too much money borrowed.
26:32What are the what risks are you watching
26:34in the markets now? The biggest risks?
26:37>> Well, uh the single entity that has
26:40killed every bull market um is the Fed.
26:42So, um basically if the Fed decides that
26:46we need uh
26:50a recession, the stock market's going to
26:52be in trouble. Good news is the Fed is
26:54not that hawkish. Number two, uh, is if
26:58we have a war that gets really bad. I
27:01mean, oil at $90 or 100, 120, it's,
27:04believe it or not, it's actually good
27:06for the American economy. That's why GDP
27:09is booming because America is a net
27:10exporter of energy and we energy
27:12companies are making a lot of money. But
27:16$200 oil, it's going to kill the global
27:18economy. I'd say those are the two
27:20biggest risks.
27:21>> Final question. What do you think is the
27:24greatest trade right now that most don't
27:26see yet?
27:28>> Uh, I mean the easiest trade like I'd
27:31say like quote alpha or it'll be a high
27:34sharp ratio to me is being long
27:36Ethereum. Um, because it is the singular
27:40trade that benefits from both AI, it's a
27:43downstream AI story. uh it, you know,
27:46with programmability really preventing a
27:48lot of exploits, but it's also the
27:50biggest story uh of Wall Street
27:53tokenizing on the blockchain.
27:55>> Tom Lee, thank you so much for joining
27:57me. Links for all your stuff down below.
27:58Final thoughts for the global altcoin
28:00daily community.
28:02>> Uh, you know, I know it feels like rocky
28:05out there, especially if you own AI
28:06stocks, but we're at the bottom.

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