This Japan Crisis is more dangerous than you think! — Transcript

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1. 0:00This is Akihiko Condo. He is a
2. 0:0341-year-old man living in Japan. He made
3. 0:06a quite headlines few years ago when he
4. 0:08seamlessly got married to an anime
5. 0:11hologram character named Miku.
6. 0:26And Ako is not only the one dealing with
7. 0:28this scenario. A data says that a recent
8. 0:31trend in Japan called the ohhi Toris
9. 0:34sama doing things on your own has picked
10. 0:36up pace amongst the younger generations
11. 0:39where single workaholic people tend to
12. 0:41do things solo like solo picnics, solo
13. 0:44karaoke and even solo weddings. Now
14. 0:48people tend to believe that this is a
15. 0:50result of an extreme level of loneliness
16. 0:53due to heavy work culture amongst the
17. 0:55modern generation. But that's not the
18. 0:58truth because a similar kind of trend is
19. 1:01rising in the western countries as well.
20. 1:04So what's the truth? Well, economists
21. 1:07arguably explain that the biggest reason
22. 1:09for this crisis in Japan is because of
23. 1:12the consequences of something called
24. 1:14collective population decline. Japan's
25. 1:17current population sits at around 123
26. 1:20million, but projections show that by
27. 1:22the end of this century, that number
28. 1:24could be cut in half. And the signs are
29. 1:26already visible. Take the small town of
30. 1:29Nanmoku for example. It's just a few
31. 1:31hundred km away from Osaka. Here, nearly
32. 1:3560% of residents are over the age of 65.
33. 1:38The town's mayor, who is 60 himself, is
34. 1:41still considered as one of the youngest
35. 1:43in the community. Not long ago, a couple
36. 1:46living in the town celebrated the birth
37. 1:48of their first baby, which was the first
38. 1:50child born in town in the last 20 years.
39. 1:54And it's not just with Moo. Across all
40. 1:57of rural Japan, entire communities are
41. 2:00vanishing. More than 740 municipalities
42. 2:03are projected to disappear by the end of
43. 2:05the century. At the heart of this crisis
44. 2:08lies Japan's declining birth rate. In
45. 2:112024, the country recorded just 730,000
46. 2:15newborns, the lowest number ever
47. 2:17recorded in the country's history, which
48. 2:19was a 5% drop from the previous year.
49. 2:22And at the same time, the number of
50. 2:23people dying rose to around 1.5 million
51. 2:27people. To put it simply, Japan is
52. 2:29losing twice as many people as it is
53. 2:31gaining every single year. The fertility
54. 2:34rate now stands at 1.2 2 children per
55. 2:36woman, far below the 2.1 needed to
56. 2:39maintain a stable population. So why is
57. 2:42Japan facing the most severe birth
58. 2:44crisis on Earth? The reasons run deep,
59. 2:47shaped by cultural traditions and
60. 2:48economic systems that have failed to
61. 2:50keep pace with modern life. For
62. 2:52centuries, the practice of Omi, a
63. 2:55matchmaking system introduced during the
64. 2:57samurai era, helped families and entire
65. 3:00kingdoms arrange marriages. The system
66. 3:02ensured stability and encouraged mating
67. 3:05at the right time, which meant marriage
68. 3:07and child birth were rarely endowed. But
69. 3:10after the economic bubble burst in the
70. 3:121990s, often referred to as Japan's lost
71. 3:14decades, that system faded away.
72. 3:17Marriage rates declined and so did the
73. 3:20birth rates. Today, Japanese women are
74. 3:22more educated, more financially
75. 3:23independent, and less willing to comply
76. 3:26to traditional roles. Yet the society
77. 3:28still expects them to carry the weight
78. 3:30of child while navigating a punishing
79. 3:33work culture. The result is a
80. 3:36generational clash. A society caught
81. 3:38between modern aspirations and outdated
82. 3:40expectations. And hence many couples
83. 3:43simply choose not to have children at
84. 3:45all. And this trend isn't unique just to
85. 3:47Japan. A 2021 survey found that over 60%
86. 3:52of Gen Z and young millennials in the US
87. 3:54prefer raising plants and pets over
88. 3:56children. On an individual level, it's a
89. 3:59personal choice. But when millions of
90. 4:01people make the same choice, the impact
91. 4:03compounds. This leads to what
92. 4:05demographers call the demographic cliff.
93. 4:08It is a tipping point where births fall
94. 4:10so sharply that entire generations
95. 4:12vanish almost overnight. By 2039, the US
96. 4:15alone is projected to have 15% fewer
97. 4:18high school graduates. And fewer young
98. 4:20people mean fewer future doctors,
99. 4:22engineers, and innovators. And Japan
100. 4:25provides a glimpse of what that future
101. 4:27could look like. In this country, people
102. 4:29are already pushing themselves to the
103. 4:31edge. Overwork is so common that there's
104. 4:34even a word for it, kroshi, meaning
105. 4:36death from overwork. One heartbreaking
106. 4:39case was that of Satoshi Osakia. Fresh
107. 4:42out of college in 2009, he joined a
108. 4:45prestigious manufacturing company.
109. 4:48Within a year, he was dead.
110. 4:50Investigators concluded that extreme
111. 4:52working hours drove him to take his own
112. 4:54life. For him, going home at 9:00 p.m.
113. 4:56was considered early. Most nights, he
114. 4:59stayed until midnight. Satoshi's story
115. 5:02is just one of many. Financial pressures
116. 5:04add another layer to the problem. Young
117. 5:07Japanese workers typically earn between
118. 5:0917,000 and $20,000 a year. Wages have
119. 5:12barely grown in decades, while the cost
120. 5:14of living keeps climbing. By 2021, the
121. 5:17cost of raising two children consume
122. 5:19nearly half of a typical couple's annual
123. 5:21income. For comparison, in the US, child
124. 5:24care eats up around 30% of the income.
125. 5:27With these realities, family life feels
126. 5:29less like a blessing and more like a
127. 5:31burden. And due to this, younger
128. 5:33generations are adapting by redefining
129. 5:35what it means to live well. A cultural
130. 5:38trend called ohi toriis sama, which
131. 5:40means doing things on your own, has
132. 5:43become mainstream. In Japan, more than
133. 5:45onethird of households now consist of a
134. 5:47single person. And due to this change in
135. 5:49lifestyle added with pressurized work
136. 5:52culture and loneliness, people like
137. 5:53Akihiko prefer this life. Some young
138. 5:57adults even hold solo weddings. Brides
139. 5:59go through the full ritual, dress,
140. 6:01ceremony, and photos without a partner.
141. 6:04It's not preparation for marriage. It's
142. 6:06a celebration of independence.
143. 6:08Technology is also filling the gap left
144. 6:11by human relationships. When Elon Musk
145. 6:13launched his AI chatbot, Grock, in
146. 6:15Japan, one of the feature being a
147. 6:17virtual girlfriend instantly went viral.
148. 6:20Users could talk to her, build a
149. 6:22relationship, and even unlock adult
150. 6:24mode. Within days of the launch, the app
151. 6:27skyrocketed to number one in the
152. 6:29Japanese app store with millions of
153. 6:31downloads in just two days. But while
154. 6:34these trends may redefine relationships,
155. 6:36they also accelerate Japan's population
156. 6:38decline. By mid 2024, government data
157. 6:41showed only 350,000 babies were born in
158. 6:44the first half of the year, a new record
159. 6:46low. Meanwhile, people over 65 are
160. 6:49projected to make up 40% of the
161. 6:51population by 2070. This scale of the
162. 6:54shift is best seen in Japan's population
163. 6:56pyramid. In 2020, the structure already
164. 6:59showed a narrow base of young people. By
165. 7:022050, the pyramid is expected to flip
166. 7:04upside down with the elderly vastly
167. 7:07outnumbering the young. The consequences
168. 7:09of this will be drastic. With fewer
169. 7:12children, many schools and child care
170. 7:14centers will shut down. Empty classrooms
171. 7:16will become a haunting symbol of the
172. 7:18future. And it's already happening in
173. 7:21few small towns in Japan where schools
174. 7:23remain completely empty. And believe it
175. 7:26or not, the government knows this. The
176. 7:28Japanese government has tried to
177. 7:30intervene in this process and stop this
178. 7:32crisis from growing. Financial
179. 7:34incentives, tax cuts, and even state
180. 7:37sponsored matchmaking services have been
181. 7:40rolled out to solve this. But yet, the
182. 7:42birth rates continue to fall. And due to
183. 7:45this reluctantly, Japan has recently
184. 7:47also begun to open its doors to
185. 7:49immigration. In 2022, over 144,000
186. 7:53immigrants were admitted, a 150% jump
187. 7:56from the previous year. Many were labor
188. 7:58migrants brought in to fill gaps in
189. 8:00elder care and construction. But still,
190. 8:03immigration alone cannot reverse the
191. 8:05demographic trend. At best, it will slow
192. 8:08the decline, but to stop it, it's just
193. 8:11not enough. Across the developed world,
194. 8:14young adults are delaying or abandoning
195. 8:16the idea of having children. Whether in
196. 8:18Tokyo, Toronto, Seoul, or San Francisco,
197. 8:21the refrain is the same. Children are
198. 8:23too expensive. When millions make that
199. 8:26decision, societies drift toward the
200. 8:28same demographic cliff we discussed few
201. 8:30minutes ago. The economic effects of
202. 8:32such cliffs are already visible. A study
203. 8:35by the Bank of International Settlements
204. 8:37examined 150 years of data across 22
205. 8:41countries and found that aging
206. 8:42populations push inflation higher.
207. 8:45Economists call it a low frequency
208. 8:47inflation. A slow but persistent rise in
209. 8:50prices as older dependent people
210. 8:52outnumber the younger independent
211. 8:54people. There's also the tax burden.
212. 8:56Fewer workers mean fewer taxpayers while
213. 8:59retirees rely more on the government
214. 9:02support. In Japan, the old age
215. 9:04dependency ratio, the number of seniors
216. 9:06per every 100 working age people is
217. 9:08already 54.5.
218. 9:11By 2050, it's projected to soar to over
219. 9:1480. This isn't just Japan's story.
220. 9:17Globally, fertility rates are
221. 9:19collapsing. In the midentth century,
222. 9:20women in OECD countries average 3.3
223. 9:23children. Today, that figure is just
224. 9:261.5. The growth rate of the world's
225. 9:28population has fallen from nearly 2% in
226. 9:32the 1960s to less than 1% today. Within
227. 9:35a few decades, deaths will outnumber
228. 9:38births worldwide. But not everywhere. In
229. 9:42countries like Nigeria, Ethiopia, and
230. 9:44the Philippines, populations are
231. 9:46booming. Nearly half of Nigerians are
232. 9:49under the age of 15. By 2050, Nigeria is
233. 9:52on track to surpass 300 million people.
234. 9:55And when overpopulation strikes, the
235. 9:57obvious answer seems to be immigration.
236. 10:00Moving young workers from high
237. 10:02population countries to the aging
238. 10:04counties. And this could in theory
239. 10:06balance the scales. But in practice,
240. 10:09immigration sparks a lot of political
241. 10:11and cultural tensions. And while it can
242. 10:13ease short-term labor shortages, it
243. 10:16doesn't solve the underlying issue of
244. 10:18falling birth rates. But still, there
245. 10:20are signs of hope. In South Korea, a
246. 10:22country with the world's lowest
247. 10:24fertility rate, the number of births
248. 10:26inched up in 2024, the first increase in
249. 10:29nearly a decade. It's a tiny change, but
250. 10:31perhaps an early sign that policy
251. 10:34measures can work. History also teaches
252. 10:36us humility. In the 1960s, fears of
253. 10:39overpopulation dominated public debate.
254. 10:42Books like The Population Bomb predicted
255. 10:44global famine and collapse. But as we
256. 10:47know, none of it became true. Perhaps
257. 10:49today's dire forecast will also prove to
258. 10:52be exaggerated. For now, Japan remains
259. 10:54the front line of the demographic
260. 10:56crisis. The question is whether the
261. 10:58country can adapt through policy,
262. 11:00cultural change, or immigration, or
263. 11:03whether it will continue to go down its
264. 11:05current path. And beyond Japan, the
265. 11:07bigger question remains. Is this the new
266. 11:09normal for the modern world? Or is
267. 11:11humanity once again about to prove the
268. 11:13experts wrong?
269. 11:15Make sure to let us know your thought in
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