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This is the Most Powerful Swing Trading Setup - The Hight Tight Flag — Transcript

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0:00things look good for a lot of leaders
0:02and it's hard to buy and then the next
0:04day boom everything's up and all those
0:06leaders are moving. If the leaders are
0:08setting up in a difficult tape that's
0:09when I typically go in a little harder
0:12than most people. So one of the things I
0:13always say is think beyond the pattern
0:14and really pattern buying alone. I mean
0:16I hate to say it but it's just kind of
0:17like can lead to average performance.
0:19You just buy this pattern or that
0:20pattern and you know it's a tight area
0:22and you're not putting a lot of thought
0:24into it. So when to buy a high tight
0:25flag obviously you want tight action.
0:27average true range. We use that to see
0:29that decline. It's not always the case.
0:31The look is probably most important, but
0:33you know, if you're scanning, you want
0:34to see some kind of tightening. And you
0:36can do that with regular bases, too. You
0:37want to see the average true range
0:38tighten on the right side of every base.
0:40And you want to see that rising RS line
0:41right into the buy point and layer all
0:44these things on. Uh the fun thing we had
0:46a low and this is uh I think it popped a
0:49little bit the next bar here, but just
0:50sold this most of it into strength
0:52there. And the fun thing about this was
0:53we sort of discounted the previous
0:55overhead supply just very deep based
0:57here. But we just looked at this is
0:58everybody that bought at 70 and held
1:00down to 20 they're completely out of the
1:02trade or they're going to hold forever.
1:04So the theme got so hot you know we
1:06found an inside day and just played it.
1:08So in a tough environment you've got a
1:10you know the Middle East conflict and
1:11then we're buying Alo in a high tight
1:13flag and that's really the key skill
1:15that I think everyone needs to identify
1:17is finding the leader is is really the
1:19most important thing. This slide just
1:21shows that I always use a stop. So
1:22anything I say if I'm interested in the
1:24stock and and I bought it and it's down
1:2510%, you could assume I'm already out
1:27for 5% higher. That's I always have a
1:29hard stop as soon as I buy something. Of
1:31course, you can move your stop depending
1:33on your signal. Always work on your
1:34market signal. I just think studying
1:36this bare market sequence is really the
1:38key takeaway. There'll be a bare market
1:39again. I mean, there's there's always
1:41one around the corner. Uh then you got
1:42to be ready to capitalize off that low
1:45and people wait for too much
1:46confirmation.
1:51All right, welcome back everyone for the
1:54next presentation of the Trailine
1:55Conference. It's my honor to introduce
1:57Leif Sera. Uh he is the USMsing champion
2:00of 2019, the founder of champion team
2:02trading and the uh host of the high
2:05tight flag masterass his specialty. And
2:08today he's going to be discussing some
2:10excellent key concepts on thinking
2:12beyond the pattern and presenting some
2:14excellent case studies off the recent
2:16bare market low. Uh, Leif, thanks as
2:18always for being a part of this. Um, I
2:20love learning price and volume action
2:22from you. I think you're you have a
2:23great way of explaining things. So,
2:25looking forward to to diving into today.
2:26Thanks for your time.
2:27>> Yeah, thanks for having me. You know,
2:28I'm I'm more than just a one-trick pony
2:30on the high tight flags, but we prefer
2:32those, right? That's the thing. But
2:34>> this is
2:34>> things that move,
2:36>> right? So, this this kind of has a think
2:39beyond the pattern is is sort of what we
2:41try to do. Uh, you know, pattern buying
2:44alone. Sometimes the patterns want the
2:46ones that work are they they change and
2:48you have to adjust a little bit. Uh I
2:50think the real great thing about this
2:52presentation is we're going to talk
2:54about what was leading off the bare
2:56market lows, what that looked like so
2:58you can spot it next time, right? Next
3:00time there's a bare market and that's
3:02where you can make just, you know, huge
3:03amounts of money getting very loaded off
3:06near the lows. You're not going to
3:07exactly buy the low, of course. Uh but
3:10that's really what I think is key. We're
3:11going to talk about alternative entry
3:13methods. Uh so little little tease of
3:15some high tight flags maybe one just
3:18bought another one today actually. Uh
3:20you know focusing on liquid stocks you
3:22know that's something we've sort of
3:24moved more to that um over the years.
3:27They're not buying the the thing stuff
3:29and small caps aren't haven't been
3:31performing very well anyway. So the more
3:33liquid leaders are more obvious and
3:35that's where the the money likes to run.
3:37We we're going to look at that. We're
3:38talking about the quality of overhead
3:40supply and the hight tight flag.
3:41Something a little update to your master
3:43class there. Uh I think something for
3:45from Olo specifically which I think is
3:47interesting and and basic basic stock
3:50placement techniques and such. So of
3:52course I have to you know a little bit
3:54about me if you don't know who I am. I
3:56won the US investment championship as it
3:57as it came out of um retirement after so
4:01many years in 2019. Uh I won that
4:04contest and I've been training since
4:051996.
4:07I finally maybe 2008 I was trading seven
4:11figure account. We've made many millions
4:13since I'm an entrepreneur MBA in
4:15finance.
4:17Uh this is like a dating profile. It's
4:19my except I've got the kids already. So
4:22sorry everybody.
4:24But my favorite favorite pattern is a
4:26hight tight flag obviously. uh your
4:29trading influences. Obviously, William
4:31O'Neal, it's all sort of based around
4:33that and everybody below there sort of
4:35uh you know puts the fine points on
4:38that. Mike Webster, David Ryan, uh you
4:41watch you can watch them on IBD live a
4:43lot. That's that's a lot of fun. Stan
4:44Weinstein stage analysis and mining is
4:48the early entries uh and VCP, you know,
4:51tightening up patterns uh and such is
4:54and and actually having a service and I
4:56have a service also. So it's kind of
4:58inspiring to see these people actually
5:00kind of showcase it and compete in that
5:02way anyway, which is a lot of fun. So we
5:04do that, too. So
5:06So we want to define our stock universe.
5:09This is something I do very seriously.
5:11We we keep the count. We're going to
5:13show that on a histogram. How many
5:15stocks are in trend? There's a chart on
5:17the left that everybody always has to
5:19trade, right? That everybody can't help
5:21themsel even if it's out of trend. I
5:23don't know if you know what that is,
5:23Richard. I take a
5:25>> Yeah, I do. Yeah. Right. So that's
5:28that's Tesla. Everybody's always
5:29breaking the rules for Tesla, but I'd
5:32rather not break the rules. There there
5:33are there are stocks that were trending
5:35from this bare market low. You see the
5:36S&P 500 above that on the chart. Uh so I
5:39wouldn't trade that. Uh I stick to what
5:42the I stick to my universe and and the
5:45number and the count actually matter.
5:47You know, with the the moving averages
5:49actually over each other, the 50 over
5:50the 150 or starting with the 200 and
5:53then the 150 over the 200, then the 50
5:55over the 150. That sort of sets your
5:57bases correctly, right? So you have to
6:00right sides and develop bases and right
6:02sides it could be tightening up there
6:05without so much overhead supply. That
6:07kind of solves a lot of that problem
6:08like this chart has a lot of heavy
6:10overhead supply. Uh and and Tesla did
6:13sort of bounce from this uh slide here.
6:15This is from the past here, but it kind
6:17of chopped around the 200 while other
6:19stuff performed a lot better. So, um,
6:22and the reason what one thing I say is
6:24never be mad at yourself when you're
6:26trading when you get something wrong.
6:27It's really only when you break your
6:28rules or do something foolish like you
6:31only this time or whatever. I'm just
6:32going I'm just going to trade Tesla
6:33right here. Uh, I mean, I get why people
6:36do it, but I'm just very very specific
6:38about it's got to be in our wheelhouse.
6:39And we do have some different rules for
6:41IPO bases, liquidity requirements, and
6:44such. I try to trade uh 90 90 plus RS
6:48ratings for market surge. That's what I
6:50prefer. So, um, in the count of how many
6:53stocks are entering or leaving our
6:55universe is kind of the key indicator
6:56that we came up with a couple years back
6:58and we sort of plot that on a histogram
7:01against uh, you know, different indices,
7:03especially small caps. Uh, they they
7:05tend to kind of mimic, you know, what
7:08kind of performance you can you can see
7:10uh, trading randomly, right? But, uh,
7:12the more liquid ones have been working
7:14great, even though those were not. So,
7:15this this is Tesla. It's sort of out of
7:17trend for me. Uh just this slide just
7:20shows that I always use a stop. So
7:21anything I say if it's if I'm interested
7:23in the stock and and I bought it and
7:25it's down 10%, you could assume I'm
7:26already out for 5% higher. That's um I
7:30always have a hard stop as soon as I buy
7:31something. And um you know, of course
7:34you can move your stop depending on your
7:37signal. Always work on your market
7:38signal. something like this like as this
7:42round tripped I got out got back in and
7:44then once that breakout candle is there
7:47you know you're adjusting to even just
7:49sort of like I did before for the most
7:50part if you're pressing more risk and
7:52and pushing your luck and sometimes
7:55you'll have a whole sequence where they
7:56just everything just round trips and
7:58that's part of the game. So,
8:01so alternative entries, you want to get
8:04a little bit creative. You want to look
8:05at pullbacks. Um, the earnings pivots is
8:07something we're going to talk about post
8:08earnings pullbacks and something we did
8:11with Rocket Lab recently. I don't have
8:13it on the slide deck, but that's that's
8:14a good one. Um,
8:18got to find what entry works best for
8:19you, obviously, and look at your stats
8:22and and figure out are pullback buys my
8:24thing? Are breakouts at new highs my
8:26thing? Sometimes 52- week high breakouts
8:29are are too obvious. Uh so you want to
8:32put a little bit of uh you want to get
8:34ahead of that because when once you get
8:35the highs you can bounce around your 5%
8:38stop. It could kind of easily lift it
8:40especially in a choppy environment. So
8:42you got to have that situational
8:43awareness. Uh and breakouts are sort of
8:46best when the market is forcing
8:49everything higher. The indices are
8:50really really going there. So, uh, you
8:54know, you want to you want to get maybe
8:55as low as you can pullbacks and cheats
8:58and spin stuff like that. So, cup and
9:00handle. Uh, one of the things I like to
9:02do is sort of fish a low in a handle.
9:03It's just basically a pullback buy once
9:05once you get to the highs of the base.
9:07Uh, imagining this this cup and this one
9:10here, Cory went to about 19 from there,
9:13but we're already even in way earlier.
9:15But, you know, you can fish that spots.
9:17It's just a overall example. And um you
9:20can see how you can imagine this this
9:23cup and then handle and you want to get
9:26some kind of a tight area inside day and
9:29in a turn from there using the daily
9:31highs is what we do. So uh high tight
9:34flag definition. This is in the master
9:36class. I recommend that. It's a pretty
9:39fair price. I don't know what it is.
9:40It's not much but check that out. We did
9:43that. I think we're going to do an hour
9:44richer. We do like six. So um and we
9:46have people that write wrote me and said
9:48I think somebody watched it like 10
9:50times. So it's you know it's kind of
9:51interesting and hey if if that's what it
9:53takes you got to burn it in the brain uh
9:56you know get all the examples. So when
9:57you do see it an environment has to be
9:59right. They're they're just they're not
10:01always flying all over the place but the
10:02number of them matters and uh you like
10:05we're start to see start to see several
10:06of these starting to work whether it's
10:08Ollo or the small nukes or other names.
10:11So um once again it's
10:16they're all in the can it's the cans
10:17slim background is key but for high
10:19tight flags the N and can slim and I
10:21think the N really in growth stocks is
10:23kind of key uh it just in general so
10:26it's like a lot of comments from the
10:28from the master class too where where
10:30it's just it really held my overall
10:31swing trading like if you can if you can
10:33handle a high tight flag you can
10:35probably handle a regular base it's
10:37probably a lot easier actually uh but
10:39your your stats are probably going to
10:41about the same and I think the high
10:42tight flags uh go farther. So, and
10:46that's the class is here. This is just a
10:49screenshot of your website, I guess. So,
10:51that looks uh there's me right there.
10:54So, check that out. Uh high tight flag,
10:58you know, the breakdown. You're looking
10:59for the flag pole. You don't want a lot
11:02of overhead supply in in the flag pole.
11:04You don't want it back to to recent
11:05highs necessarily, but sometimes on
11:08these ones that that are just uh
11:11small small nukes and stuff. They the
11:13power comes and goes, everybody's
11:15eliminated. So, you can kind of discount
11:16some of that overhead supply there. Uh
11:20so, you want to use those tight areas
11:21and handles and you know, this went on
11:23for like a 10 bagger from this original
11:25buy here, but I'm probably getting in
11:26and out as it goes. And sometimes it is
11:29easier just to hold and you had to
11:30decide what type of trader you are
11:32there. So, you want to trade around that
11:34100% rise. So, uh we also have we call
11:37rocket bases, right? So it's did it pull
11:40back more than 25%
11:42uh but less than 50%. So that just might
11:46need more time. So it's just very strong
11:48base from that kind of a rise. There's
11:51something going on there. Just needs a
11:53little more time. So we look for like
11:54six to 10 weeks instead of three to
11:55five. Uh then we have something called
11:57low tight flag for the special
12:00situations that are not quite the high
12:03tight flag but look like it but they're
12:04even tighter. Hopefully like 15% or less
12:07in the flag. Uh,
12:10so sometimes they fail, but they just
12:12they're going to set up later. That's
12:13you want you want to be trading around
12:15these these stocks that show all that
12:16power. And that that's kind of what we
12:18do. And here's a scan. This is from deep
12:20view. And you can use this for
12:22uh stockcharts.com
12:24and get that syntax. And we're going to
12:26get through this because the fun thing
12:27I'm going to do is show a bunch of
12:29trades off the bare low. And I just love
12:31talking over the charts more so than
12:33like presenting, right? So that's we can
12:35talk about that. So, Axon, this is like
12:37from this is from the class actually.
12:39You see, you see see how far these hight
12:40tight flags can go and uh this one was
12:43rare situation a long time ago where
12:45there's three in a row and uh it's
12:48actually a pretty great stock recently
12:50too. Axon taser. So, uh this had the N
12:53factor the new so that's important
12:55there. And uh of course, you know, more
12:57notes for high tight flags. You can
12:59pause this and take a look. uh you know,
13:03textbook setups,
13:05you know, that that's the where you want
13:06to be. You want you want it to look
13:08good. You want inside days and such. You
13:10know, quality. You want to move up the
13:11quality. You want probably want $10
13:13plus. I start at five five and up. But
13:16you want some liquid names. You don't
13:17want uh almost no volume. You get
13:20trapped in a stock and you you might
13:22have some breakout traders trying it and
13:24then everybody just panics out and blows
13:26out. So you want some liquidity there so
13:28you can see if you can get get a look at
13:30it and take a manageable stop if you're
13:33wrong. So uh of course the group is
13:36important sometimes. Uh biotech can you
13:39know they can have news that cause these
13:41things too. So and I've sort of moved
13:43away from biotechs over the years.
13:44There's just too many other there's too
13:46many other stocks that uh aren't going
13:48to give you a heart attack when you're
13:50uh and I never really got blown out in
13:51one but we we came close once or twice.
13:53something something last year was down
13:55like 30% in the pre-market and just
13:56snapped back to even uh just some just
13:58some crazy stuff. So, we sort of moved
14:00on from a lot of those for the most part
14:02unless I've got real earnings and all
14:04that. So,
14:06uh so when to buy a high tight flag
14:08obviously you want tight tight action
14:11average true range we use that to see
14:13that declining. It doesn't always it's
14:14not always the case. Uh the look is
14:16probably most important but you know if
14:18you're scanning you want to see some
14:19kind of tightening and you can do that
14:21with regular basis too. You want to see
14:22the average true range titan on the
14:24right side of every base. Um, and you
14:27want to see that rising RS line right
14:29into the buy point and and layer all
14:31these things on um diagonals. We put
14:34some emphasis on it. If it's at at a
14:36horizontal pivot and these things kind
14:38of u got the confluence of different
14:40indicators that that are going to
14:42improve your odds. Uh that's that's
14:44something to uh uh you know then you
14:48want to target that stock basically,
14:49right? So, hey everyone. Just want to
14:51jump in here real quick and let you know
14:53that this episode is brought to you by
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16:11That's dv.com/mpodcast.
16:13And with that, let's get back to the
16:14interview. Uh the fun thing we had a low
16:16and this is uh I think it popped a
16:19little bit uh the next bar here but
16:22>> uh just sold this most of it into
16:23strength there
16:24>> and the fun thing about this was we sort
16:26of discounted the previous overhead
16:28supply just very deep based here but we
16:31just looked at this is everybody that
16:32bought at 70 and held down to 20 is uh
16:36wasted right they're uh they're
16:38completely out of the trade or they're
16:39going to hold forever so I think that
16:42you know we didn't we tend to look back
16:44a year or two, but this one this special
16:46case where the theme got so hot, you
16:49know, we found an inside day and just
16:50played it. So, uh, in a tough
16:53environment, you've got, you know, the
16:54Middle East conflict and then we're
16:56buying Alo in a high tight flag. So, uh,
16:59there's definitely a lot of power in the
17:01group there. So, we're playing with that
17:03one. And, uh, you know, shakeouts, you
17:05can do a lot of re-entries up to three.
17:08You know, if you don't get it right the
17:10first time or second time, I I tend to
17:12back off. off and this is what I've been
17:13doing with MSTR actually in this the
17:16recent handle
17:17um the recent handle in June just was
17:20not really working out here so we
17:22switched to IBIT and that's just a
17:23little bit better. So uh if it's not
17:25working out for you there's you know you
17:27won't be surprised when it tanks later.
17:29So uh and then you pause these slides
17:31and take a look at you know when to sell
17:34uh you know first targets depending on
17:36the signal. If you're on a great signal
17:38where everything's working for you, you
17:39maybe want to take more than two risk
17:41multiples before you take anything. Um,
17:44if if you're a total chopfest, you're
17:46probably taking something very quickly
17:48like we did with Aqua. We took like a
17:49like a 20% scale and then moved the stop
17:52to even. It never hit it and then we're
17:54we're selling when we get that 30% rip
17:56for the most part and keeping a trailer.
17:58So, uh, like I said, Celsius did about
18:01900% from that that example there. And
18:04um
18:06we're not really looking so much at at
18:07China names anymore, but uh the lower
18:11quality names tend to move in those
18:13interesting environments and they sort
18:14of all around trip. So you you really
18:16need to sell those to the strength and
18:18uh kind of be smart about your risk
18:20management. So all right. So earnings
18:22pivots here. This is something you want
18:23me to go over. It's a really interesting
18:25thing to dis I think we not really
18:28discovered it but it's you get a moment
18:30where you you discover that earnings are
18:33creating the pattern. A lot of the times
18:35it's a drifting into earnings and it's
18:38waiting for that confirmation and then
18:39you get this tight area or pivot that
18:41people tend to try a day or two before
18:44and I I tend not to do that because
18:47you're sort of just gambling. Maybe you
18:48get up 3%. Maybe you just go take a stop
18:51right ahead of it. So I tend to wait for
18:54earnings and then trade it after that.
18:56In fact, I'm in. So this went into
18:59earnings here and and shook down and
19:01then and then went through the buy point
19:03and we're a little more aggressive with
19:04the IPO bases. We have some different
19:06rules for that. So uh that was an ad
19:08point and it's very on theme and you
19:11know this IPO looks like it's a
19:14successful IPO. So you want you want to
19:16try that and we don't chase gaps on
19:18these more than 1 to 2%. Some people do
19:22those earnings gaps. I don't do that
19:23unless it's at the the correct buy
19:25point. So we can get out 1% maybe I'll
19:28try that. So you know especially if it's
19:30a larger base this IPO base is
19:32interesting because it's a little
19:33shorter. Um so great earnings at an
19:36ideal buy point or at a great buy point
19:38is ideal. So um you know standard buy
19:42points are really best when it when the
19:43price drags into that. So that's what
19:46we've been working on there. And another
19:48example here we'll take a look at
19:50carame. We have uh CPNG. This is one
19:52that I took here and just sold that into
19:54strength because this larger base I've
19:56been playing with. I I tried it back in
19:59here and had a I think it was
20:00profitable. I had to get out. Uh got
20:02back in, sold it into strength and and
20:04retry the uh sort of the the high handle
20:06turn there. Uh but you get these larger
20:09bases. You want to get the earnings
20:11pivots on the right side of the base.
20:13And the price, I think, sort of is
20:16waiting for confirmation that you're
20:17getting that beat and raise. That's what
20:19I typically want to hear.
20:20uh a great environment. It's just kind
20:22of more of a binary move. Um you're sort
20:25of right right away if it if it's
20:27pushing through the buy point or not,
20:30right? It's a a lot can happen. It can
20:32fly all over the place, but for the most
20:34part, uh it's sort of binary. It's kind
20:36of one or zero, just straight out or
20:38straight down. So, uh this one was
20:40interesting because it had this bigger
20:41weekly base and you want to see that.
20:44So, I'll try to target those earnings
20:46pivots with a larger basis on the right
20:48side. And that one worked. And here
20:50we're re-entered on this little mini
20:52handle turn there and just kind of
20:54floating around for now. But it's a DR
20:56and Miller name. And we, you know,
20:57online retail is something we're
21:00interested in here. So,
21:01>> and just just to clarify for folks, the
21:02the the buy point for the earnings
21:04pivots is through a recent short-term
21:07resistance level, either through the
21:09prior day high or here in this case,
21:10there's a little range that forms there.
21:12Yeah. Anything you want to add on that?
21:14Yeah.
21:14>> Well, yeah, it's just a a little pivot.
21:16I mean, going back to this, even 20 247,
21:18you draw a line across. So, you know,
21:21it's it's a little bit low in the base
21:23there over the 200s. Maybe not trending,
21:26but uh I think this thing was ready to
21:28to jump out of the base finally. You
21:29know, that's that that's what I was I
21:31was betting on. So, a little different
21:33rules if you find any tight area. Uh
21:36it's definitely over the 200 day moving
21:38average. So some of these moving this
21:39moving average down there was it has to
21:41catch up with it now. But uh so we sold
21:44that and and rebought it as just a
21:46regular swing trade after that. So
21:52all right so one of the things I always
21:54say is think beyond the pattern and
21:55really pattern buying alone I mean I
21:57hate to say it but it's just kind of
21:58like can lead to average performance.
22:00You just buy this pattern or that
22:01pattern. Uh you know it's a tight area
22:04and you're not putting a lot of thought
22:06into it, right? to you really can't kiss
22:08all the babies. I mean, today was a
22:10pretty good day overall and there's
22:13there's too many stocks to trade. So, we
22:15sort of had to focus on what we thought
22:16was uh you know, the best themes and
22:19groups of where the money was going and
22:22uh just random random pattern buying.
22:25Sometimes it can help diversify your
22:27different groups as such, but you sort
22:29of want to be concentrated in the stuff
22:30that's working. You got to know what's
22:32working, bigger liquid leaders, uh, you
22:34know, is growth versus value working.
22:37Um,
22:38you know, sometimes you got to get back
22:40into your leaders. I mean, I've been
22:41doing a lot more of that recently, sort
22:43of selling the strength and adding back,
22:45uh, keeping the same stocks. Uh, and
22:48there's a lot of traders that that I
22:49trade with that are going to be more
22:50long-term, and that's maybe more what
22:53they're looking for. They just want good
22:54entries or something like that, and
22:56they're going to hold for the long term
22:57using, you know, moving averages. uh
23:00we're we're always checking for upgrades
23:02like upgrade at a buy point and it's
23:04something you've been looking at. Uh and
23:07one of the things too is just if you if
23:09if you haven't been looking at this
23:10stock that you're just about to buy and
23:12you just look at it on the day and you
23:14want to buy it. Uh where was it 3 days
23:16ago, right? It's like this is something
23:18you you're not ready. Um you got to be
23:21doing your homework. Lone wolf trades
23:23are kind of lower odds typically. You
23:25got to match it to the group or the
23:27theme. Um typically, right? anything
23:29could happen. You know, that Tesla could
23:31go to the moon like I I showed in the
23:32first the first chart, but I won't be
23:35mad at myself for missing it because I
23:36don't trade that. Uh that's what I was
23:39saying about, you know, don't have a lot
23:41of anger at yourself ever. Always talk
23:43positive about yourself, but stay in
23:44your stay in your lane, do what you do,
23:46and and uh you know, this is not a
23:48casino, right? So, got to run it like a
23:51business.
23:52Uh so this is the fund histogram off to
23:55the bare market lows and we we we track
23:58the IWM
24:00uh pretty close. IWO is IWN plus
24:06IWM is IWO plus IWN is a Nancy. So the
24:10value and the growth component are both
24:12in this. IWM is the more liquid one. So
24:15we're sort of focused on that. And this
24:17had this perfect I wouldn't say perfect
24:19but pretty close to sort of like ABC
24:20move. Uh, and we thought really everyone
24:23was overreacting to the the Trump trade
24:26deals. If you look up what he did last
24:28time is kind of very minimal overall
24:31tariffs and such. Um, versus this time
24:34he put some very big numbers to to it.
24:36You know, 100% tariff on China and then
24:39took it off and we figured he would do
24:41it. So, this didn't have much more legs
24:44to the downside we thought. But you look
24:46down here, there's nothing to trade. So,
24:48you don't have to do anything. That's
24:50there's there's no pressure when the
24:52stocks in trend and it kind of fakes you
24:54out. You sort of take a signal change
24:56and roll back down. So you your signal
24:59can be false too, right? When you start
25:00to get some stuff working and sell out
25:02again and start uh you know you realize
25:05there's nothing to trade and then that
25:06starts picking up and that couch starts
25:08picking up and then you're buying a
25:09leaders as as the signal changes and
25:12getting that right and then going to
25:12green signal as quickly as you can once
25:14you realize that that's the bare market
25:16low and I think the April 7th was. So
25:20>> yeah, and for everybody the the
25:22histogram on the bottom is mapping the
25:24number of stocks that meet your
25:26particular trend filters. So we're we're
25:28seeing basically breath expand and
25:31confirm off the bottom low.
25:33>> Yeah, this is TC2000 with special data
25:36package that uh you have your daily
25:39count of everything that meets, you
25:41know, all the stocks that are in trend
25:43and the liquidity requirements.
25:46uh the $5 plus and all that stuff. You
25:50can you you can change it to match what
25:52what you're looking for. Maybe you want
25:53$10 plus. That's probably where it
25:55should be, but we just we've been
25:57consistent that it's $5 minimum cuz
26:00maybe we'll try a $9 one that sets up
26:02absolutely perfect, right? So, want to
26:04have a little bit wider net, but that's
26:06what happened at the lows. There's
26:08nothing to trade. So, once that starts
26:09building again and and shorts aren't
26:12working. I mean, I'm in here poking at
26:13some shorts. Uh we're we're trying to
26:16get a feel for what's going on and
26:17that's the way I do it. I'm a little
26:19more active. Uh but the sizing when
26:21things aren't working great, you're
26:22you're small. You're on red signal.
26:23There's not going to be a lot of damage.
26:25Okay. You're you're 25% or less invested
26:29uh for the most part or maybe just
26:31catch. I mean, you you realize we're
26:32sort of in a downtrend going into a bear
26:34here. So uh and and there's a lot of
26:37lessons to learn from the recent bear.
26:38see uh the the the chart there what it
26:41looked like kind of undercut all the way
26:42back to to to a year prior there. Uh but
26:45there was several leaders that really
26:47never touched the 200 day moving
26:48average. Uh and so there was really no
26:51need to catch that April 7th low and
26:53just index by. I think we did better
26:55buying the leaders coming out of there.
26:57Uh because leaders are going to lead,
26:59right? They're going to kind of
26:59outperform it. We want that
27:00outperformance.
27:02uh you know one of the things I would do
27:04maybe I have some different rules and
27:05one of them is in com combination with
27:07other things is the VIX hits 80 I I'll
27:09mark it by uh the index basically so but
27:14we didn't get there and there's no need
27:15to do that anyway you you'd probably
27:17rather have the stronger stocks coming
27:19out of it but um you you got this great
27:22undercut and what I think the best way
27:24to do is to to learn how to trade from
27:26this is I'll walk through the trades we
27:29did in order off the lows and it started
27:31with spot Spotify and uh we we were
27:34pretty accurate with what leaders were
27:36we were buying and you'll see the
27:38reasons yourself and understand how we
27:40came about these. It's not like we're
27:42reading uh you know Baronss or watching
27:45CNBC trying to figure out what leaders
27:47are. It's just how they were acting and
27:50you know some of them ended up being
27:51more sluggish than others. And that's
27:52going to be the difference in a contest
27:54winner versus a contest like decent
27:56place or just you know beating the
27:58market. um managing these properly,
28:01you'll probably beat the market, but if
28:04you want to win a contest, you sort of
28:05need to be concentrated in in just a
28:07handful, you know, three to four stocks
28:09or something like that. Uh but but you
28:12know, I I tend to you only have to get
28:13rich once. So, you you know, it's better
28:15for me to spread it out a little bit and
28:17kind of get that same performance off
28:19the lows when you're when you're
28:21getting, you know, three stocks very
28:22quickly that go up 30%.
28:25uh one that maybe you take a stop on,
28:27right? You take your whole account in
28:28that. So, I'm just I'd rather spread out
28:30a little bit myself. Uh obviously not in
28:33the contest and we have a lot of contest
28:35players, you know, on champion team and
28:37uh somebody was up 100% the other month
28:39and uh you know, we had Leo almost had
28:41the the record last year. So, it's fun
28:44to see what they're looking at and and
28:46how far the leaders go and how how how
28:49good they you know are at finding the
28:51leader. So, and that's really the key
28:53skill that I think everyone needs to uh
28:56identify is finding the leader is is
28:58really the most important thing. And
29:00we're going to go over that right here.
29:02We're going to talk about I sort of did
29:04a talk with Arouchia once. It was sort
29:07of came up with it on the fly. It's
29:08called it careful concentration. And it
29:10was like, you know, how do you get 40%
29:13invested very quickly in something,
29:15right, with without just buying one
29:17stock and and putting a 40% size on it?
29:20and you sort of identify a group, maybe
29:22it's semis and they're all looking good,
29:24breaking out one after the other and you
29:26go 10% four times, I got 40%. as you're
29:29moving up stops and taking profits or
29:32something like that. Uh so that's sort
29:35of the way I run the service is sort of
29:37the champion team trading a little more
29:40active but uh very quickly kind of
29:43getting into a few and obviously you got
29:45to do your own trading and the the
29:47contest traders are going to pick what
29:48they think are the leaders and and stick
29:51with those with size. Obviously you got
29:53to use margin if you want real
29:55outperformance. You have to get
29:57comfortable with that. But that's not
29:59for new traders. I'd say give it a
30:01couple years before you start messing
30:03with that. Um, and like I said, I've
30:05been doing it since 96. I was very bad
30:07when I started 1996. I was 16 and uh,
30:10you know, blew out almost uh, within a
30:12few weeks and haven't blown out since.
30:14So, that's good. Uh,
30:17you got to be careful with with contest
30:20trading and margin. But, you know, I we
30:21tend to showcase those ideas. So, um, so
30:25yeah, one stock up 30% or a few up 30,
30:28it's a little bit more riskaverse to go
30:31one after the other, maybe one or two in
30:33a day every, you know, and continuing up
30:35as you can see the market's holding,
30:37too. You don't know the market's really
30:38going to hold either. So, you want that
30:41confirmation as as you're you're adding
30:43your risk and moving up the stop kind of
30:46derisks a lot of it. you know, obviously
30:48pending gap risk, anything can happen,
30:50of course, but uh just some thoughts
30:53there. So, something interesting to
30:55think about for so the technicals really
30:58gave the clues that, you know, which
31:01stocks were leaders off the low. So, if
31:03the bear is quick, you sort of looked to
31:04the same leaders really very little
31:06change, you know, some tariff news, some
31:08inflation, kind of all the same story.
31:11So, whatever stayed in trend, that's
31:14your leader and they're probably going
31:15to snap back. So, uh, we looked at
31:17something like SE. So, I traded that
31:19back in September for pretty good money,
31:22uh, as it as it sort of touched the 200
31:25and tightened up against the higher low
31:27in the market. You see the S&P 500, this
31:29market sur chart behind it. Uh, we're
31:32we're trying to use that as a like a
31:33little cheat there. And the patterns
31:36weren't exactly perfect, but off a bare
31:38market low, I just think that getting
31:40into the leaders is more important than
31:42patterns. So, you want to use the uh
31:44sort of the spirit of a pivot or
31:46something. And I borrow that from Mike
31:47Webster. He always says spirit of
31:49something. And that sort of uh sticks
31:51with me because we're we're we're
31:52getting a horizontal pivot that you know
31:55you're you're coming off a bare market
31:56low. Things are going to be volatile.
31:58So, you're just you're just trying to
31:59get exposure as things are turning up
32:02and the market if that snaps back and it
32:05did as it got that higher low, we're
32:06starting to uh you know hit some of
32:08these stocks. there was a lot of runway
32:11in the market to push these up. Um, so
32:14besides looking at the same leaders, um,
32:16you want to look for sort of like a lot
32:17of double bottom patterns we're going to
32:19show. Uh,
32:21like I said, you're not going to get
32:22perfect pivots necessarily. If you're
32:25waiting for the perfect textbook thing
32:27off the bare low, you're you're going to
32:29be waiting till there's the next bare
32:30market probably. So that's uh not the
32:33way to do it in in my view. If you think
32:35you've identified it and we're testing a
32:37few, we're not going all in. you get one
32:39right, then you try another one and say,
32:41"Okay, is this aggression worth it? Is
32:43it working?" Otherwise, we're we're
32:45dialing it back. So, it's not like we're
32:47we got some crystal ball. It's a call.
32:50We start buying and then we get a
32:51confirmation and that's telling us we're
32:53right. We don't know we're right until
32:55the stocks start going up.
32:58So, that's a little look at SE there.
33:01So, this is at the exact bare market low
33:05of April 7th. all these charts. Uh you
33:08have Spotify in the top right, Netflix,
33:12uh Take Two, and Palanteer. And I
33:13remember reviewing these constantly and
33:15just thinking, I don't think we have too
33:17much more downside. It's just getting
33:18these kind of undercuts on that low day.
33:22And these didn't even touch the 200 day
33:24moving average. So, I wasn't I mean, it
33:26doesn't mean they they was going to
33:27balance them for sure going to go up.
33:28But I'm thinking I don't think we're
33:29going to depression. They didn't whack
33:31these. you you're in your bare market
33:33measurements 20% plus off the highs in
33:35the indices and uh these they really
33:38couldn't take these down. So somebody
33:40was supporting them and was telling me
33:42that the power is probably going to come
33:44back at some point and you want to
33:46target these. So this is just a little
33:48review of that's what it looked like at
33:50the barrel low with these were my key
33:52stocks that I was looking at and I was
33:54also messing with some shorts in there
33:56and I wasn't getting any results like I
33:58said. So it's like we're we're playing
34:00around with a we're testing some long
34:02and short but really the stocks and
34:04trend were disappearing. So the short
34:05side was the only side that really made
34:06sense. You look at Palunteer sort of a
34:08key leader almost looks like a big head
34:10and shoulders but then undercut and then
34:12it tightened up from there. We'll we'll
34:14we'll show the buy we did there later.
34:18All right. So the first buy we did was
34:20was Spotify and I've traded this in the
34:22past. um you know till actually the
34:25start of the year
34:29>> you know we're trying to get this kind
34:30of early entry the spirit of achieve
34:32things coming off the low sold some of
34:34the strength and stopped even so we're
34:36not getting great feedback but then we
34:38see that okay it it it bounced back up
34:40and we we targeted it later. Uh so
34:43making any kind of profit on it was kind
34:45of a clue that okay we're we're able to
34:47you know sort of get some stocks moving
34:48here and uh it's an early clue that okay
34:52we're going to start looking more long.
34:54Uh and you can see the market what it
34:56looked like here. You get this higher
34:57low and then it shook out and we had
35:00MSTR on the left side the double bottom
35:02base right on the 200 day moving
35:04average. So you go into a bare market
35:06and all it could do is tap the 200.
35:08It'll stay in trend and on the entire
35:11chart you you really can't even find a
35:13tight area except where where we bought
35:15it there. Uh, so we're selling some into
35:17strength and getting out there. And I
35:19did try to re-engage it in this handle
35:22uh for an even stop and a 1% stop and
35:24just kind of getting messed up in this
35:26like and switching to IBIT today, which
35:28is uh actually nicely on the on the
35:30moves and uh I I think was trading a
35:33little bit better than MSTR. So,
35:36>> Ebony,
35:37>> uh, so yeah, take two was another double
35:40bottom base where the the the second
35:42bottom sort of undercut the first and
35:44that was right at the bare market low.
35:46It snapped right back. So, we're looking
35:48for some kind of a turn off the 50 and
35:50we got it and started getting up double
35:53digits. Sold a little bit into strike
35:56and we thought we had it. So, things are
35:58looking pretty good, but then they
36:02kind of move the game back. the uh Grand
36:04Theft Auto 6, they delayed that. So, I
36:07caught a bounce off the open and sold
36:09into that. So, didn't make a lot on that
36:12one on on the last sale there, but it's
36:14a sign that things are firming up and
36:16then from here it improved a little bit
36:18more. So, you know, one thing about a
36:21game delay, somebody else has the
36:22opportunity to come in and put out maybe
36:24the the free version without some much
36:26of a story or something and uh kind of
36:28uh compete with you there. So, it kind
36:31of got a little riskier in my view. So,
36:32we just said goodbye to it, but uh you
36:36know, sort of had the the spirit of a
36:37tight area like like I said, like Mike
36:39Webster would say as we sort of
36:40tightening up and very little was tight,
36:43but some stuff started to move. So, we
36:44just going to we're going to test our
36:46luck there basically. So, uh there's
36:49some re-entry opportunities, but we we
36:50got other stocks here. So, Uber once
36:53again, we're just trying to buy this
36:55breaking out here. So, we looked for a a
36:57spot. We sold into strength there. Uh
36:59tried it again and stopped out. So, um,
37:02you know, once again, just a big base
37:04and the whole bare market just kept it
37:07within its base. So, there was something
37:09there that I'm I'm thinking, okay, they
37:11couldn't knock this one out of this base
37:12finally. So, I think it's maybe ready to
37:14go to the next one. Uh, but we, you
37:16know, this one was um is well managed, I
37:19suppose, but maybe a little sluggish,
37:21you know, after the fact. So,
37:24take a look at that. Just sort of buying
37:26that coming out of there. and what the
37:28what the palanteer looked like which is
37:29our our key stock the key market leader
37:32uh you had that double bottom base and
37:34that shake out at the bare market low
37:37and then tightened up and I I tend to
37:39use the the horizontal the spirit of one
37:42right so you have that horizontal pivot
37:44and it kind of broke the 100 level so
37:46we're using this uh buy there and
37:49selling and adding so we're still in
37:50this trade even even adding up here uh
37:52taking some taking it off though on this
37:54this liquidation bar here I think it had
37:57something to do with the Musk feud. So,
37:59couldn't get a real read on that. It's a
38:01little bit of a violation. Uh but, you
38:02know, turning back up, you could could
38:04reattack it. So,
38:07uh the other ones are was Carvana and
38:09Carvana once again, you just draw that
38:10the horizontal pivot had the spirit of
38:12one. Uh it it just barely shook out. It
38:15didn't really live below the 200. That's
38:17that's what I don't like. Uh we're we're
38:19just talking about stocks like NOW and
38:21other ones, you know, the ones that were
38:23below the the 200 day moving average at
38:25the bare market low. I don't think are
38:27the stronger stocks, but of course
38:29anything they can change and they can
38:30they can really rip, but we're trying to
38:32stick with the ones that are in trend,
38:34the trend of the best that are going to
38:35continue to trend. Uh so we're we're
38:38adding we're adding this long here uh
38:42you know, April 23rd. So we're sort of
38:44buying a few on that day as things
38:46really start taking off and just kind of
38:48this Livermore idea where I think it's
38:51in that in his book there. We figured
38:53when it crossed 300 ought ought to keep
38:55going and probably touch 340 in a jiffy.
38:58That that's exactly where we sold out
39:00and then uh I think it got worse from
39:02here and just kind of tanked. So, uh but
39:04once once you do the the reby on the
39:06handle, I'm expecting less on the next
39:08one. So, you're getting maybe 30% from
39:11here to there, a little bit more up
39:12there. So, um it's about 50% gains from
39:16the from the buy point, the original
39:17one. And that's good. And something with
39:20Rocket Lab. I I had Rocket Lab and I you
39:23don't want to let perfect be the enemy
39:24of good. I I was trying to sell Rocket
39:26Lab up 50% and I got like within 3% of
39:29that and then it just uh kind of tanked
39:32like you know 30% back down. So uh that
39:35that was uh you want to be selling it as
39:37strength and choppy environment. So uh
39:40but this this one was acting like a
39:42leader all the way and I I think we were
39:45right to say okay that's going to lead
39:47off the lows. So we picked that one off
39:49too. Um, and these are all in a row on
39:52champion team trading. These are all the
39:53buys here actually. So,
39:56and we did we did hit 340 there and got
39:58out. So, you take a look at that and
40:00very much the spirit of like a high
40:01handle pullback on top of this little
40:03base here and aggressive off the lows
40:05and you know, not a perfect pivot,
40:07right? You'd say that's not a textbook
40:08thing. Same with Crowd Strike. Draw the
40:10line across it. Uh, just we're trying to
40:12grab these leaders. We think this is the
40:14cyber security leader. Uh so we're
40:17adding as we go and uh we're trying to
40:20ride these. This is just just the next
40:21day as stocks are confirming and they're
40:24all breaking out. Uh you know the
40:26leadership I think is more important
40:27than the perfect pivot off the bare low.
40:29But once again we're using the spirit of
40:32a pivot there something that makes sense
40:33that's horizontal. Uh so that's that's
40:36what we're looking at in the uh we we're
40:39sort of using this 400 level break. I
40:40say it's the four liver more. It's the
40:42four $400. Round numbers are key. You
40:46want to see stocks moving through those
40:47round numbers and sometimes they can be
40:49resistance if you're extended into them.
40:51Uh so that's that's something that
40:56I put more emphasis on over the years.
40:57It's this kind of obvious round numbers
40:59and the psychology behind that.
41:03We can see that 400 break up there and
41:05then little mini handle. So there's
41:06almost a shake out in this handle.
41:08That's why we're adding to it. Then
41:09we're adding up here. So we're trying to
41:11keep size and what we what we think is a
41:14cyber security leader and a lot of these
41:16had this kind of earnings amnesia. This
41:17this had earnings that kind of dropped
41:19out but they snapped back. So that's an
41:21interesting thing about the group during
41:22this time P&W
41:26uh FT&T and others uh Cyber CBR they
41:30they kind of sold off on her and just
41:32snapped back because I think in the
41:34future you know they're look the
41:36market's looking forward to that group
41:37as leadership. uh SE we went over this
41:40one before uh as the example where they
41:42looked like this just barely touched the
41:44200. So we had this great run before.
41:46You t I tend to want to go back to
41:47stocks that I've traded well. Right. So
41:49I got SE right uh back in maybe
41:52September. Uh so I think it's a leader.
41:56It's it's it's performed well. It was
41:58trending well. Uh just barely touched
42:00the 200 and tightening up off the bare
42:02market low. So uh
42:05yeah we what did I say here? Adding hold
42:08on a second. But we got to fix this.
42:09Adding back can be wrong. What?
42:17Okay. So, what I'm saying here is adding
42:19back can be wrong when you're you're
42:20adding back at the at the highs here.
42:22And this this broke out and failed, but
42:24this might this will probably still turn
42:25up is my guess and that's what we're
42:27betting on down there. Uh but you know,
42:30sometimes your your adbacks can raise
42:32your cost basis and start messing things
42:33up unless you have sold it and you
42:35rebought almost at the same place. So,
42:38you don't want to mess up your cost
42:39basis too much when you're adding on and
42:41trying to keep size. Um, if you've taken
42:44scales, you know, if you add extended,
42:47you're you're putting yourself in more
42:49difficult position to hold. So, that's
42:52what we're looking at there. That's the
42:53ad spot. Just add
42:55>> Yeah. through that high.
42:56>> Yeah. Through that that little turn and
42:57then it it really didn't hold there. It
42:59kind of just threw back. uh you have the
43:01chance to take it off I suppose but you
43:04know starting down here with size uh
43:06helps the situation and uh it's always
43:09good to sort of you don't really want to
43:10lose your position in a leader it's uh I
43:13think David Ryan says that a lot and
43:16yeah anyway so this the pattern buying
43:19right so it's like eBay I think eBay is
43:21like a pattern buy to me but you know
43:22you got some stuff working lately like
43:24Cisco and eBay and I I don't know that
43:27eBay is the future of of online retail
43:30or thing, but uh it it had this pretty
43:33decent shake out of the 200. Snapped
43:34right back out really tight. So, this is
43:36more of a textbook area, but I mean
43:38right right away it it ded me out. So,
43:40this was this was a quick stop at like
43:42the previous low uh as it as it just
43:44pulled in there and then actually took
43:46off later. So, uh lately anything I
43:50stopped on or took off early just
43:52continues higher. That's real sign of a
43:54good market, right? So, um, you're going
43:57to get that volatility where you're
43:58you're trying to do a a prior low stop.
44:01They tend to fish it when things are a
44:03little bit bumpy, but um, you get this
44:06kind of old tech. I think that's the
44:07pattern buy, but sometimes they're
44:09great, right? So, you're going to get
44:10pattern buy out of that. Uh, and then
44:12that really took off. So, you're going
44:13from, you know, somewhere around uh,
44:16below below 70 and you're up to 80
44:18there. So,
44:20so Mellie is one that I just got back in
44:22actually on this on this turn off the
44:2450. It had a pretty good turn today. It
44:26was like up three% or something. Uh but
44:29it one of the things I I do too is we
44:31look for huge earnings jumps which we
44:33had uh I think in February and the bare
44:36market pulled it back. Uh not anything
44:39else really. I just think okay there's
44:41our news that says they're they're
44:43fumbling their business. They they did
44:45great great earnings reaction and then
44:47just market selling took it back in. Uh
44:50but the next time it it rose back to
44:52that level, we're getting in closing
44:55most of it into earnings here and then
44:57lucky earnings gap getting out on this
44:59drop here.
45:02So that's that's what we're doing now.
45:03We're sizing it back up on the turn. So
45:05it's a lot of adbacks and when you
45:07identify a leader and this sort of pull
45:09back on top of this base, it's the other
45:10thing with the 50 supporting it. And
45:13then you got, you know, ARGT. We're sort
45:16of comparing it to that ETF, which is
45:17this is about 21% I think the top
45:20folding there. Uh so you do want to see
45:24the stocks that had the great earnings
45:25reactions and then revisit those after
45:28the bare market because the bare market
45:30pulls those back in. Uh and recently
45:32there was a selloff over free shipping.
45:34They're offering free shipping to beat
45:37their competition. Sometimes that's a
45:39good thing. Maybe they keep their
45:40competition out for a while and they
45:43bust out and then they're they're back
45:44to charging like Prime or whatever,
45:47right? Like Amazon does get those fees
45:49finally. So, little look at the chart
45:52here. Once again, not the perfect pivot,
45:54but I wouldn't buy this this pattern
45:56right now really. I mean, I I' I'd buy
45:58more textbook stuff uh as we as we
46:01extend, but just racing into the leaders
46:04was is carefully as concentrated as I
46:07could get uh and getting on margin very
46:10quickly.
46:11>> Can you go back to that one just uh the
46:13spot near 2100 is a little bit cleaner
46:16maybe uh through that reversal high.
46:18Yeah, right. Right through that spot.
46:20Yeah.
46:20>> Yeah, I like that spot too. I just was
46:22late so I'm just, you know, looking for
46:23the next spot really. you know, that's a
46:26better spot actually, you know, coming
46:27down there. Uh 2100. Yeah, absolutely.
46:30So, uh but then you realize we're
46:33waiting for that confirmation, right?
46:34So, it's like we're buying other leaders
46:36there, the ones we just mentioned. You
46:39sort of just can't I I really couldn't
46:40bring myself to just keep adding and
46:42adding and adding and adding, but I am,
46:44right? It's just sort of like one one to
46:45three a day and you're doing like 10%
46:48size or something, 10 to 15, and try to
46:51ramp it up. and uh your your recent
46:54gains off the bare market low. This is
46:57something also you got to understand.
46:59Off the bare low, you're you're going to
47:00have made a bunch of mistakes and you
47:02don't have like a bunch of recent gains
47:04to spend. That's a tough thing for
47:06people to trade off the bare market low.
47:08Nobody has the gains basically unless
47:10you're an expert short. And my shorts
47:12actually were weren't getting it done
47:13either. But you sort of have to go very
47:15quickly with very quick risk management
47:17like you saw Spotify that threw back.
47:18I'm out. like I I'm I don't have the
47:21recent gains to spend. Doesn't matter
47:23what I made last year or anything else.
47:26Um you know, you're you're worried about
47:27the what you have what you have to work
47:30with right on the spot, right? That's
47:31that's the key. So, and uh you're taking
47:34this off because it kind of it had that
47:36second close below the 21 EMA and then
47:38kind of confirming down. Uh is that that
47:41was the sell rule for this one? Yeah, we
47:43just moved it up and we didn't like the
47:46the the news driven spike with the on
47:48volume through the 21 EMA. So, we moved
47:50it up to
47:52I don't know exactly where somewhere in
47:53there and then yeah, we're reattacking
47:55it here as it pulls back on top of
47:57support and uh it turned up today. Uh it
48:00was you know I don't know what I don't
48:03know where it turned up too but it was
48:04up three.
48:05>> It's right near the 21 again.
48:07>> Right. Right. Yeah. Oh yeah. And then
48:09popped back up to that. Right. What's
48:10the level? Where's it at now? Uh it's at
48:13uh 2450 right on
48:16>> right. Okay. So we we bought the turn at
48:17like over this prior high there. So for
48:1950 bucks or something was a good start.
48:21Uh and we'll put a stop below that and
48:23the 50 there. So then you get you know
48:27we're pressing and pressing and maybe
48:29put all your money in LTH because it's
48:30got the ants on this on the left side.
48:33Uh you really like this double bottom
48:34base which we did and it's sort of
48:37getting on everybody's radar. I think
48:39it's sort of a
48:41not really an IPO base, but it's it's
48:43kind of a I looked at it as almost a new
48:45thing. I mean, I had even heard about
48:46it. We tried it back in here and and got
48:48stopped out on an earnings drop after
48:50taking off most of it. Uh but now we're
48:53we're on the right side of this and it
48:56just blew out and then it spiked and
48:57rolled. And in hindsight, these ants
49:00during that the ants on the chart is up
49:0220%
49:04and 15 out of 15 days up. Uh there's a
49:07lot of insiders selling there. So no
49:10surprise this sort of rolled down
49:11anyway, but they're not all going to
49:13work. So this one was just a bust, you
49:14know, trying to buy that turn. And this
49:16this base is starting to get better,
49:17right? So it's like now it's starting to
49:19look like uh double bottom base is
49:21tightening up throughout the pattern.
49:23And uh this acted like a leader during
49:26the bare market low. It didn't touch the
49:27200. Now it is for some reason. So I
49:29don't know where it is today, but um
49:31that's that was the case. So this is
49:33what it looked like. Get the ants. When
49:34you see the ants on the chart, I
49:35typically want to consider the right
49:38side of of the of the base, the same
49:40base.
49:42So once again, this KRN was is our
49:45earnings pivot example, but once again,
49:47it's sort of double bottom IPO. So if
49:49you can IPO in a bare market and and
49:51really tighten up on the right side and
49:53act like a normal base, there's uh
49:55something very positive going on there.
49:57And I think this is even up more from
49:59this. So this was one I got real heavy.
50:01Um, and you can you can uh tweet at me
50:04if it if it crashes or something. But,
50:06uh, we're moving up the stop as we go
50:08and we're adding to it. Uh, but you're
50:10one of the things I I've discovered too
50:11that I you negating the the head and
50:14shoulders pattern. You negate that right
50:16shoulder, you kind of tighten up and
50:17break out there. And it didn't go right
50:20away, but the stop held. I think just a
50:22standard 5% stop or so held. Uh, and we
50:25had to give it a little bit of room.
50:26It's volatile off the off the bare
50:29market low. So, we held that in
50:31earnings. Uh, it was a good ad spot. So,
50:33you might want to take some off before
50:34earnings and add it back. And that would
50:36have been uh kind of ideal there. Uh,
50:38cuz you don't really know the options
50:40volatility there. I don't know the
50:41options were really trading much. So,
50:43you just got to assume, you know, 10% or
50:45so. Uh, is what you're going to get
50:47beating beating or the mansion or
50:49trailer, right? So, you see what
50:50happens. Uh, carame you we're adding on
50:54this this high handle as this IPO is
50:56starting to look successful uh getting
50:58out there. So I try to try to instead of
51:01having you know chasing a bunch of cats
51:03around trying to have a fewer positions
51:06and we were having a lot of them but
51:08nothing nothing crazy like a mutual
51:09fund. So trying to stick with the ads on
51:11something like this uh makes sense. And
51:13once again the bottom is the same thing.
51:16The double bottom base and getting the
51:18right shoulder IPO rules we we the time
51:21frames we cut in half generally. So if
51:23you allow 8week base we'll allow four
51:26for IPO base. So, a little more
51:28aggressive with these and you get a
51:30better look there. So, now it's got a 96
51:33RS rating. Um, and it's trading pretty
51:35well. So,
51:38so from from this one, we went to cyber.
51:40So, we this one threw back basically.
51:43So, we entered on May 1st, May 9th. It
51:46was just barely in the money and we
51:47closed it into earnings uh just because
51:50we didn't want to roll the dice and it
51:52really didn't do anything on earnings.
51:54you he could have done this kind of post
51:56earnings pullback buy. So that's part of
51:58the earnings pivot strategy too is kind
52:00of fishing the turn after
52:03earnings because that's meaningful. It
52:05did well it didn't crash. They're
52:07accepting it. Someone's still reading
52:08the the paperwork. They're reading the
52:11conference calls and then if it turns
52:13back up that's your spot and then uh
52:17that's where you you could have re
52:18reattacked it. So we closed it uh a
52:21slight gain right into earnings. just
52:24basically even and then and then turning
52:25it up. So, we're getting a look at a lot
52:27of different ones here. Uh and trying to
52:29go in a group that we thought was going
52:31to lead and that was cyber security and
52:33Schwab. We we bought this one once again
52:35just breaking this range. I think there
52:37was an upgrade. So, you know, at the buy
52:40point, sort of breaking that range
52:42there, double bottom. Uh so, it's just a
52:45little bit of different trading for us
52:46off the lows that the patterns were very
52:49loose, but they're sort of just so much
52:51power. We're we're throwing the the risk
52:53on as they're all coming out there. Uh
52:56using the the spirit of the horizontal
52:58pivot, you know, five four five day
53:00pivot there at highs. Uh trying that
53:02coming out. Um you know, and then this
53:05handle shook out and today it snapped
53:07back. So could probably just reattack
53:09it, but it was just a quick little trade
53:10there. Um it's sort of at this point
53:13it's like one big ball of momentum. So
53:15you want to sort of adjust to a
53:17financial or something, right? You just
53:19don't want to have everything palenteer
53:21or curvana sort of they're all trade the
53:22same hood we have hood we go over that
53:24later about that later uh sort of all
53:27the same stock for the most part uh
53:30you're going to get similar performance
53:31so you want to sort of spread out in
53:32some different groups once those groups
53:34start to make sense uh there's a group
53:37that I'll show that that I tried that I
53:39realized I didn't want any part of and
53:42maybe it's starting to get ready now but
53:43it was was not good recently so
53:47um let's So, this is the day we switched
53:49to green signals. I was heavily invested
53:51or on margin already as we're we're
53:53trying to push these out and getting
53:55pretty decent feedback except for the
53:57one or two um that were that we're
53:59sizing off here. So, BSX, I think this
54:01is like it's a quality stock that we we
54:03traded pretty well before um but we
54:06entered May 1st and closed at May 12th.
54:09So, this one really didn't go anywhere.
54:11Um and we sort of closed it even because
54:14we we didn't like the way the sector was
54:16acting. XBI even though it's kind of
54:19it's just the same sector, not really
54:20the same group or industry group. You
54:22have UNH and VRTX and others. U you know
54:25ISRG sort of after this kind of blew
54:27out. Uh so you sort of want to diversify
54:31into some some other ones. You know, you
54:32you think our leaders got real earnings,
54:35but we started to see that. So that's
54:36where I'm going to say, look, you know,
54:38this is something's wrong with this one,
54:40the whole group, so we're just going to
54:42move on to something else. And it turns
54:44out that was right to just close it even
54:46even though it went up another $5 before
54:48before it dropped. So you take a look at
54:51that. And once again, it just barely,
54:53you know, tickled the 200 and and reset.
54:56And that's what you want to see as a
54:57sign of strength in the bare market.
54:59That's all it can do. That's leadership
55:01qualities there.
55:04All right. So Chewy, this is the other
55:06fun one here. The the pet one. I know
55:09Richard, you have some. You have a pet,
55:10I take it. Yeah. if you want to share.
55:14>> I got we got that pet hiding under
55:16somewhere there. You want to bring them
55:18out?
55:18>> No, she's sleeping in the sun right now.
55:20We've we've got the patio. There's
55:22finally some sun in Seattle, so she's
55:23enjoying it. But yeah, I'm part of the
55:25revenue of uh Chewy. They're they're
55:26they're nice, but um they throw in some
55:30nice toys sometimes, daughters, which is
55:31cool.
55:32>> Nice. So yeah, I mean it looked good. So
55:35this is a nice little base and you know
55:37just kind of pull back and we we try to
55:39get like a early entry on a pullback
55:41sort of inside day pullback in turn and
55:44that helped from the highs and what I've
55:46been saying about these highs is they
55:47throw back right so you're going to you
55:49want a 5% stop at highs everybody there
55:51was eliminated for sure our stop held so
55:54you know we are it was like the low of
55:55the day or something and or right below
55:57it and it didn't even get there and I
56:00wasn't even looking at this and just
56:02snapped right back. Uh, so you know, and
56:05then and then once again, it did get uh
56:0720% out there. I felt dumb closing it
56:09early, but like I said, you have to
56:12start to book some of these, right?
56:14That's the other thing. Um,
56:18I guess we'll look at Rubric there.
56:22You see this? It's just this is the
56:23pattern starting to get better as you
56:25get further away from the low. So, this
56:26is just your mini little pullback and a
56:28little cheat there. Selling it up there.
56:30and then up here you feel dumb and then
56:32earnings dropped out there. So, um it it
56:35was okay to sell there in hindsight.
56:37Whereas I did this with Roblox and then
56:39that went for like another 20%. So,
56:41sometimes it's like a blend of them.
56:44You're you just sort you're never going
56:46to get the exact top. You're never going
56:48to well sometimes you're going to get
56:50picked off with your exact low too on
56:52your stops. It happens a lot, right?
56:54Then just fish your stops and run it up.
56:56Uh you can see uh Chewy there.
56:59There's a nice little run there. So,
57:00that will hold on to that. Uh maybe
57:03that'll reset. We'll take a look. But
57:05Octa, so we're just trying to get back
57:07in. So, Cyber looked okay for a minute,
57:09but I don't think we're going to hold
57:10it. So, we look at Octa, and that group
57:13is strengthening. And we look like this
57:14this base is ready to go off the bare
57:16low. We get this tight area is a little
57:18too aggressive. So, I have a very small
57:20size on something that's, you know, not
57:22really setting up like this. It's not
57:25setting up a very developed pivot. So,
57:26we're just kind of throwing that on.
57:28Um, it did have a bad earnings reaction
57:31and I did have some left. So, uh, not
57:33not that bad of a loss. Just you going
57:35you want to take your first price at the
57:37open on a earnings selloff because that
57:40got that got much worse anyway. Uh, and
57:43everybody asks like, you know, what's
57:44the trick to trying to keep it and all
57:46that, you know, everyone's just trying
57:48to be right, like you're wrong. The
57:49earnings are bad and you're wrong, so
57:52you have to sell, right? I mean, of
57:55course, it could just bounce back, but
57:57the the reaction everybody says this
57:59this one shouldn't have been up there
58:01and now you're wrong. You just have to
58:02take your whip in there and get out. So,
58:05that's what we did there after selling
58:07some in the strength and you get double
58:09digits up in the money and you go into
58:11earnings. It's it is definitely good to
58:13take some off in my view. Make sure you
58:15you get something out of it in case this
58:17happens. And I don't think we got that
58:19bad of a fill either. just not even too
58:21far from our entry, but uh you know they
58:24could have kept that profitable. Uh
58:26hood. So this one was a really great
58:28trade. It's still kind of trending
58:29higher there. I think it's like 77 or
58:31something. Um May 7th, you know, pull
58:35back by post earnings, right? So this is
58:37part of the I'd say this is like the
58:39earnings pivot, but we do like earnings
58:40pullback. So maybe I need some better
58:44names for it or something, but we just
58:45call it earnings pullback or earnings
58:47pivot. Uh so that's what we're looking
58:50at here is it as it pulled back and
58:52turned. We're just loading up there and
58:54really straight in the money. So that
58:56was pretty good and even adding back uh
58:58up there and maybe more ad spots along
59:02the way. But this was a real leader and
59:04you can see that the the top of the
59:05market there right before the bears S&P
59:07500 is on the chart there. Uh and we got
59:10that 50% jump. So we sold some and added
59:13back. But it was leading. I mean this is
59:16this is the the look. I don't have this
59:17one jumping out, I guess. But you you
59:20have this up to, you know, 6 67 at the
59:23at the highs there of the market and
59:25then drop down just to the 200, then
59:27tighten up. Uh, you know, that's this
59:30one looks like a really strong and it
59:32was likely just pulled back by the
59:34market. So, we're looking for some kind
59:36of an entry on the right side of that.
59:38And earnings didn't shoot it up, but it
59:40was tight. Like I said, they maybe they
59:42were reading some of the conference
59:44calls and people started to get behind
59:45it and that turn looked good to me. So
59:48that was one of our better trades
59:50recently and still still holding it. Um
59:52Spotify still holding this one. Uh
59:55really since 200 sub 200 been trading
59:58this one. Some of them are uh you go
1:00:01back look at your markings like what was
1:00:02I doing there? Uh in hindsight some
1:00:05sometimes it's going to look bad but a
1:00:07lot of these really ripped pretty good
1:00:09here. So, this this one's been trending
1:00:11uh really nice. You got the double
1:00:12bottom with the with the the the bare
1:00:15market low there. You know, like I said,
1:00:17you get in step with the leader, you
1:00:18dance till the music stops. So, just
1:00:20keep playing it or hold it, right? I
1:00:22mean, if you want to do it that way,
1:00:23too. Uh so, this is sort of like the
1:00:26handle low fish that we were talking
1:00:27about. So, I looked at this as sort of
1:00:30the handle on the right side. So, we're,
1:00:32you know, kind of dropped in, got an
1:00:34inside day or two and then turned there.
1:00:36So that's where we're checking that and
1:00:38probably little ad spots along the way
1:00:39and this I think this even got a little
1:00:41more today. So uh this this this was a
1:00:45a re-entry like we this was our first
1:00:48and then we got back in then the first
1:00:50one got obviously threw back and we we
1:00:52got out and and and reattacked it. So um
1:00:55just not taking that personally. Stocks
1:00:57can act up right. So uh Roblox did this
1:01:02look like at the bare low. I mean, you
1:01:03just have to train the eye. Obviously,
1:01:05just bang, right on the 200 there. There
1:01:08was buyers there and this has gone to
1:01:10100 now. So, I closed it in the 80s and
1:01:14this is like to what I was saying about
1:01:15Chewy. Um, you know, you get your 20%
1:01:18rips. Some of them are going to tank,
1:01:21some of them are going to continue. Uh,
1:01:23but you sort of want to target where you
1:01:24think you're you're going to be
1:01:25profitable. And like I said, you're
1:01:27holding one big ball of momentum. You
1:01:29got Hood, Carvana, Robux. It's sort of
1:01:32like being Arc Invest or something at
1:01:34one point, right? Except maybe more
1:01:35quality. I think they kind of uh some of
1:01:37the stuff they buy, I don't understand,
1:01:38but and they're living below the moving
1:01:40averages. Uh but, you know, they they
1:01:43have their own style, which is which is
1:01:44cool. So, uh I have my style. It's going
1:01:48to be stocks and uptrends that are high
1:01:50growth, right? If it's it's in a
1:01:52downtrend and it's high growth or or is
1:01:54under the moving averages, I don't even
1:01:56look at it. So, uh but this is very on
1:01:59theme with the video games. We're
1:02:01looking at take two digital
1:02:03subscriptions are seem to be uh popular
1:02:06and tariffs probably unaffected by that.
1:02:09Maybe unaffected by recessions and all
1:02:11that. I mean, maybe you're not going to
1:02:12cancel your Spotify
1:02:15uh or Netflix, right? So, they're not
1:02:17that expensive. Uh
1:02:21so, yeah, this this was like a little
1:02:23bit of a handle low fish there. Once
1:02:24again, a little creative buy as we're
1:02:27coming off the lows. one snapped right
1:02:29to highs and then did this little
1:02:30pullback and tightened up and turn
1:02:32there. So, that's that's where we're
1:02:33looking at that using some daily high in
1:02:35the inside day or two. Uh you're looking
1:02:37for some low volume or shake out. We got
1:02:39a little shake out there and that's sort
1:02:41of it gives you that stop protection in
1:02:44the handle. I look at I look at that as
1:02:47a little bit of if your stop is below
1:02:49that, you're you're probably safer than
1:02:52usual, right? Like the low of the day. I
1:02:55mean, that that's where you're really
1:02:56wrong. now after the the shakeout low.
1:02:58So anyway, that's that's it for now.
1:03:00That's that's what I got for the
1:03:03conference. But you know, thanks thanks
1:03:05for having me and this is uh you can
1:03:07trade with me on Champion Team Trading.
1:03:09This is uh my little ad here if you want
1:03:10to check that out. We love to have
1:03:12everybody that kind understands what I'm
1:03:14doing and it's word of mouth only. So
1:03:17stop by, check it out.
1:03:19>> Perfect. Le uh could you run back to
1:03:21that uh Roblox chart real quick? Uh it's
1:03:24funny. You know, I noticed this. This is
1:03:25one of the names I had in my list as
1:03:27holding the 200 SMA, but I I was just
1:03:29watching other stuff when it when it's
1:03:31set up. But this has been one of like
1:03:32the unsung Nobody's really talking about
1:03:34this on Twitter, but it's been one of
1:03:35the best runners uh and movers.
1:03:38Everybody's watching Hood and Palunteer,
1:03:40but this has really performed well. Um I
1:03:42want to highlight something that you
1:03:44mentioned about, you know, the tight
1:03:46days on low volume. That's really the
1:03:49signature that you're looking for to set
1:03:51up the entry point, right? is that tight
1:03:54range tight days. Yeah. For the
1:03:55pullbacks. Do you want to expand on that
1:03:57a little bit?
1:03:58>> Company's pulling back on low volume. I
1:04:00look at it as okay and maybe there's a
1:04:02little shake out. It's low volume. Uh
1:04:05the sellers just just the final sellers
1:04:07got out. That creates the handle. It's
1:04:09like the the people that are back to
1:04:10even, right? So, say you buy your house
1:04:12at a million, you want to sell it, but
1:04:14it goes to 800. Goes back to a million.
1:04:18Now you're even. That's where you're
1:04:20selling and depressing the price. And
1:04:22then maybe your house is on the way to 2
1:04:24million though, right? But that's the
1:04:25little handle before that. So the
1:04:28sellers are they're praying every night
1:04:30that if only I get back to even, that's
1:04:32where it gets back to the high. Then
1:04:34they they create the handle. And you
1:04:36want to see them not too excited. You
1:04:38want to see low volume puking the stocks
1:04:41out there, making that handle and
1:04:42tightening up. Uh and then you want to
1:04:44see the volume pushing it out, taking
1:04:46out one of those highs there. And I tend
1:04:49to get ahead of the highs even though
1:04:50you probably could have bought this high
1:04:51in hindsight, but I that's not the way I
1:04:54typically do it. You can add to it there
1:04:57too and you can add as you go.
1:04:59>> Uh but this got a little extended for me
1:05:01from the 200. So sort of like from where
1:05:04this 75 was to the 200. I thought this
1:05:08spot was about as far away as that. So I
1:05:12said, well, it it's very similar in
1:05:14distance and it's the risk multiples I'm
1:05:17looking for. Uh let's close it down
1:05:19there and uh maybe let it set up a new
1:05:22base or whatever and then now it's over
1:05:25a hundred. So um I'm never going to get
1:05:27the exact top. I I've done it once or
1:05:29twice actually with within a few
1:05:31pennies, but uh not it's very unusual.
1:05:35Yeah. And then um by the way, it's
1:05:37awesome to see all the case studies
1:05:39because I think people can really study
1:05:40the entry points that you're talking
1:05:42about and encourage them to mark it up
1:05:44on their own charts, take a look at what
1:05:45it looks like and see the commonalities.
1:05:48Um in terms of what you said earlier
1:05:50about, you know, after a correction
1:05:53really just trying to, you know, work
1:05:54your way in in terms of instead of
1:05:56trying to find and wait for a perfect
1:05:58handle to set up. Can you expand on that
1:06:00because I think that's a really
1:06:01important concept. Identifying the names
1:06:03that have the potential and just trying
1:06:05to find a way in versus wait for, you
1:06:08know, the ideal setup that isn't going
1:06:10to come until it's already moved, you
1:06:11know, well off the lows.
1:06:13>> Yeah. I mean, the the leaders the the
1:06:15the way they pulled back, they kind of
1:06:17all gave it away in my view. Some of
1:06:19them, like I said, they're, you know,
1:06:20LTH just blew out or whatever, but for
1:06:22the most part, the other ones held. They
1:06:23they gave you the clues that there was
1:06:25support during the pullback. There was
1:06:27buyers during the pullback. Uh that's
1:06:29why I'm not looking at, you know, I'm
1:06:31thinking of like now NO or something. It
1:06:33was like below the 200. Okay. During the
1:06:36during this pullback, everything I
1:06:38looked at really held quite well with
1:06:39maybe a there was a few maybe Carvana or
1:06:42something a couple days below it. Uh but
1:06:44for the most part, we're we're looking
1:06:45at stocks that maintain the trend. So
1:06:48I'd say I'm also a trend follower as I'm
1:06:51sort of working around that idea that
1:06:53we're we're trying to get something in a
1:06:55trend. And as this is trending, this
1:06:58sets up a base. And there's even a
1:06:59better entry if you want to go
1:07:01aggressive around 60. You get a couple
1:07:03days tight there on the 50. Uh coming
1:07:06off the bare low. I wasn't ready to try
1:07:09this one yet. I was a little unsure
1:07:10about this one. And then you're going
1:07:12into earnings and uh it was the earnings
1:07:14pullback. You know, it kind of shot up
1:07:16on earnings and pulled back once again.
1:07:17So we're we're using all the all these
1:07:20methods. And then, you know, obviously
1:07:22the practice is how you get to see that
1:07:25and get good at it. And I've never seen
1:07:28anybody run through a bare market low
1:07:30with the leaders like this. So, I think
1:07:32this is a good presentation. I'll give
1:07:35myself an A.
1:07:37>> Yeah, there you go. No, I think um this
1:07:40is the way to build the pattern
1:07:41recognition, right? Is to to see how you
1:07:43would do it or somebody else does it.
1:07:45>> The buy the buy points that they're
1:07:47pointing out. Uh, and then with all of
1:07:49these, as you're going through them,
1:07:50what you want to think about is, all
1:07:52right, that's my entry point. Where is
1:07:54the tight and logical spot to manage
1:07:55risk? You know, is it the the low of the
1:07:57range? Is it the low of the day on the
1:07:59when would I move up that stop? That's
1:08:01the type of me mental exercise that can
1:08:03really help you out until you've traded
1:08:05your own way through a few, you know, a
1:08:08few cycles. And even then, it's uh it's
1:08:10great practice. And to build, you know,
1:08:12to build the skills that you need in
1:08:13real time, you have to go back and
1:08:15study, you know, how how you would have
1:08:16done in the past. So, I think this is
1:08:18awesome. Um, in terms of key takeaways
1:08:21that you'd like people to have from, uh,
1:08:23this session today, uh, we've already
1:08:25touched on a few, you know, the the
1:08:27tight tight bias spots. Um, you know,
1:08:29uh, finding the leaders early and
1:08:31building into them. Anything else that
1:08:32you really want people to walk away from
1:08:34today, uh, you know, you know,
1:08:36remembering going into the future
1:08:39this the leaders present themselves at
1:08:41the lows in in this manner for the most
1:08:43part. Okay. and and yeah, is it going to
1:08:46be a perfect pattern coming off of it
1:08:48one of the most volatile, you know,
1:08:50messes at a bare market? No, it's going
1:08:53to be a little bit messy. Is the the
1:08:54spirit of the pattern? Uh the overall
1:08:58the combining all the ideas to say that
1:09:00this is a supported stock. They're going
1:09:03to go back to it when the market joins
1:09:05the party, right? The market runs up and
1:09:07moves everybody back in this stock and
1:09:09they were already buying it when it was
1:09:10was going down. That's the whole point
1:09:12of this presentation really is is is
1:09:14getting a look at the lows. Um, you
1:09:16know, Spotify during a whole bare market
1:09:18didn't do anything. Like you got to go
1:09:20back and look at all these and you know,
1:09:23even Octa didn't touch the moving
1:09:24averages. Uh, what are we looking at
1:09:26here? Chewy just scraped it, you know,
1:09:30trended nicely. So as soon as the market
1:09:32comes back and that the right side of
1:09:34that starts to look okay, these are the
1:09:36ones that the market's going to run up
1:09:38and it's trying to force your way in
1:09:40them makes sense. But then now when it's
1:09:43very clear that the market's uh you know
1:09:45this strong again or sort of rolling out
1:09:47of the bear then you sort of want to go
1:09:49more pattern buying in these leaders
1:09:51right and add on and try to stay with
1:09:53them. Uh you got Roblox just keeps
1:09:56extending. So, um, and really Chewy
1:09:59would have been okay if it wasn't for
1:10:00earnings. Maybe just I tend to, that's
1:10:03why I focus on the earnings pivots,
1:10:05earnings pullbacks because there's a lot
1:10:08of runway once you, you know, you get
1:10:10through earnings and then you can let
1:10:12that trend happen and not say, "Oh, what
1:10:14do I have to do here?" Like my Melly
1:10:16trade, where's this?
1:10:20>> Yeah, it was right there.
1:10:21>> Yeah. So Melly, I mean, it was looking
1:10:23good and then going into earnings, I got
1:10:25to pull it off because I'm only up a
1:10:26little bit on it. I'm not going to just
1:10:27roll the dice on this one. Um, you know,
1:10:31so so we took it down to like a quarter
1:10:32size and you know, just trading a little
1:10:34bit trying to get back in now. Uh, but
1:10:38you know, if if this was post earnings
1:10:40and you got this move, you could keep
1:10:42going. There's just a lot of runway
1:10:44unless there was news. There was some
1:10:45shipping news or something, but you want
1:10:47the runway. Roblox definitely had
1:10:49runway. It was post earnings.
1:10:53Let's take a look at that if we can
1:10:55find Roblox here.
1:11:00Yeah. And as you're doing that, I think
1:11:02another key takeaway that people should
1:11:03have is be thinking about the themes.
1:11:05Again, thinking beyond the pattern,
1:11:07grouping different themes. What is the
1:11:09market rewarding? You tried the biotech
1:11:12names, they didn't quite work. You
1:11:13focused elsewhere on the names that were
1:11:15working. So, I think that's another key
1:11:17takeaway to to to focus on for folks.
1:11:20Yeah. Here's Robux.
1:11:22>> Yeah.
1:11:23>> Yes. You had runway after after
1:11:25earnings,
1:11:25>> right? Right. So, so this went through
1:11:28earnings and just it's got plenty of
1:11:29runway. There's nothing nothing to knock
1:11:30it down. There's no there's no news.
1:11:32There's no nothing. So, the problem with
1:11:34Chewy was it had earnings and that it
1:11:36shot it down. I mean, you you want that
1:11:39runway and that's why I focus on
1:11:41earnings pivots, earnings pullback. So,
1:11:43uh I should have put Rocket Lab on that.
1:11:45Look at the last earnings for Rocket
1:11:47Lab. this little turn. Almost got 50%
1:11:50out of that from there. Same thing. It's
1:11:52a powerful stock. They digest earnings
1:11:55and it turns like this little handle
1:11:57here somewhere. Uh then you've got
1:11:59plenty of runway. You know, they they
1:12:01didn't mess up. They they're digesting
1:12:03the earnings like Hood. Uh we got to
1:12:06take a look at Hood.
1:12:09Hood was a little bit of the same. I
1:12:10don't have the popup here, but you know,
1:12:12you had earnings. It was a day tight and
1:12:14then it turned. That's plenty of runway
1:12:17and it's still going. It's like 77 now
1:12:19or something I think. So that's that's
1:12:21what you want that earnings behind you.
1:12:23At least I do. I just trade better that
1:12:25way. You know, I get get it behind me
1:12:27and then I have a chance for it to trend
1:12:29and the money just, you know,
1:12:30continuously buys it and the sellers are
1:12:33not there as much because they're not
1:12:35nervous about the next earnings. Um
1:12:37they're happy with the the last earnings
1:12:40and you know it's the can slim method.
1:12:43It's the earnings are there. So, and
1:12:45behind you, right, you got to have good
1:12:46earnings. I want to see beat and raise
1:12:48and that's where the the earnings
1:12:50pullbacks the same thing. Sometimes it's
1:12:53just unsure bare market. They're not
1:12:55going to launch it a couple days tight.
1:12:57You could try the turn. If if you think
1:12:58it's a leader, this acted great. Uh it
1:13:01treaded great. I think the market pulled
1:13:04it back. And that's what you want to
1:13:05see. You want to see great earnings like
1:13:07this one here. February earnings shot it
1:13:10out. And what took it down? I think the
1:13:12market, the bare market pulled it back.
1:13:13So once the bear is over, you got to
1:13:15look to reattack this one. There's
1:13:17something going on there just like
1:13:18Melly. And is the entry going to be
1:13:20perfect off the bare market low?
1:13:22Probably not. But as long as the spirit
1:13:24of your entry is there, I think you're
1:13:26all right. Yeah, get GEV was another one
1:13:29that had uh earnings pretty early on on
1:13:32the higher low. Uh I think April 24th
1:13:34that had a nice spot right after
1:13:36earnings were reconfirmed higher through
1:13:37a pivot. And that that's been one of the
1:13:40the energy nuclear theme ones that's
1:13:43been acting really nicely.
1:13:44>> That that was a okay earnings pivot. The
1:13:45problem is I think it opened high and
1:13:47then dropped. So it just yeah it didn't
1:13:48have the technical move that I needed
1:13:51and I just sort of missed that spot. But
1:13:52I've traded that uh in the past pretty
1:13:55well. That's like your blue chip nuclear
1:13:57name which is great. We have from here
1:13:59I'm trading VST nuclear names and you
1:14:02know like I showed Ollo uh we're still
1:14:05hitting that theme and taking scales and
1:14:08trying to stick with some of these
1:14:09leaders as as there's still runway and I
1:14:11think there's still runway in some of
1:14:13these but now they're getting very
1:14:14extended right so you see how far it can
1:14:17go from the 200 that's you know you get
1:14:19up to 80 okay now you're very extended
1:14:21off the 200 again you're up in the nose
1:14:24please probably want to take you down a
1:14:26little bit the you depending on your
1:14:28style. Uh so that's that's what I did
1:14:31with Chewy and I was right after Ernie,
1:14:34right? Because Ernie, we're going to get
1:14:35Ernie again, but not for a while on
1:14:37Hood. So, we'll see.
1:14:40>> Yep. Perfect.
1:14:41>> Uh Lle, this is this has been amazing.
1:14:43Uh any other um key messages that you
1:14:45want to leave everybody with watching
1:14:46today? Uh regarding either trading after
1:14:49market market corrections or um you know
1:14:53uh you know any any general advice with
1:14:55interpreting charts too would be would
1:14:56be awesome.
1:14:58>> Uh general advice I don't know but
1:15:01interpreting charts let me think
1:15:03>> or or just studying case studies like
1:15:05this. What what what should people do to
1:15:06make the most out of
1:15:08>> Okay. From this present from this
1:15:10presentation, I think the best thing to
1:15:12do would be sort of review what the
1:15:14leaders looked like at the lows and
1:15:16that's what I did on the slide. So,
1:15:19you're you're not going to typically be
1:15:20at a depression if you have a lot of
1:15:22your leaders not even touching the 200
1:15:24day moving average. So, you start to get
1:15:26some confidence. Uh but they have to
1:15:28build some kind of a tight area as the
1:15:31you get the higher lows in the market
1:15:34and you're not buying right off the
1:15:35lows. It's really the bare market
1:15:37sequence. So, I just think studying this
1:15:39bare market sequence is really the key
1:15:42takeaway. Uh because there there'll be a
1:15:44bare market again. I mean, there's
1:15:46there's always one around the corner. Uh
1:15:48then you got to be ready to capitalize
1:15:51off that low. And people wait for too
1:15:53much confirmation. This is the thinking
1:15:55beyond the pattern. By the time it's
1:15:56obvious that we're back to highs in the
1:15:58index, yeah, it's easy to shoot it down
1:16:01with some news. They start shooting some
1:16:02missiles at each other. Uh you're you're
1:16:05going to sell off. And now you're you're
1:16:06getting your lowrisk entries, you know,
1:16:08hit because the market did this Vshape.
1:16:11It's almost like a COVID snapback. A
1:16:13very quick, you know, V-shaped snapback.
1:16:16Uh but once you get back to highs,
1:16:19that's where maybe you need the handle,
1:16:21right? So everybody gets back to highs.
1:16:22It I I I swear I'll behave myself. Just
1:16:25let me get back to highs. And people
1:16:27pray for that. And you get you get the
1:16:29handle. Sometimes it's just the news,
1:16:30the excuse to to put that handle in for
1:16:33the digestion. and now you're late. So,
1:16:37the other thing is uh sort of buying
1:16:40when things are the hardest. And I
1:16:41actually tweeted this
1:16:43uh the on the 15th I think of June
1:16:47uh that things look good for a lot of
1:16:49leaders
1:16:51and it's hard to buy. And then the next
1:16:54day, boom, everything's off and all
1:16:56those leaders are moving. But did you
1:16:59see that they were all set up? They're
1:17:00not setting up cuz you're about to blow
1:17:02up, right? If the leaders are setting up
1:17:05in a difficult tape, that's when I
1:17:08typically go in a little harder than
1:17:09most people because you're it's also
1:17:13like a little bit of a game of poker,
1:17:14right? It's like you're sitting there
1:17:16and and most people aren't willing to do
1:17:18this because they're all nervous about
1:17:20the news, but the stocks are telling you
1:17:22it's okay, right? You got everything at
1:17:25a buy point, all the leaders you're
1:17:26looking at. Uh, and then on a day like
1:17:28today, which is not anything on the
1:17:30slides here, uh, everything starts.
1:17:33There's so many setups. I couldn't have
1:17:35bought them all. They all moved too fast
1:17:37off the open. Uh, but I had the ones I
1:17:40wanted. So,
1:17:41>> yep. Buying when it's difficult, when
1:17:44stocks are setting up equals improving
1:17:48your odds. And that's sort of what this
1:17:49presentation shows. Also, it was not
1:17:52easy to buy all these. I think a lot of
1:17:53people thought I was nuts, but it's the
1:17:56confirmation I got as I went, right?
1:17:59It's not some com like I'm on the news
1:18:02and I'm saying I'm bullish, you know,
1:18:03for random reasons. The stocks are
1:18:06proving it and the gains are proving it.
1:18:08One, yeah, one or two mess up and it's
1:18:10always going to be the case. Uh but you
1:18:12know you get 50% or more on hood and
1:18:14these kind of moves here with carvana
1:18:16and stuff that that's where you make
1:18:18some some really good gains and it's not
1:18:21going to be that easy when the market
1:18:22snaps a V to the highs and you maybe you
1:18:25need that shake out where things aren't
1:18:26easy right everyone's got you're waiting
1:18:28for too much confirmation you're waiting
1:18:30for too much perfect pattern we are
1:18:33using the patterns though and uh I
1:18:35definitely respect pattern lying but
1:18:37we're we're using the spirit of one to
1:18:40try to force our way in leaders in this
1:18:42case.
1:18:43>> Yep. Excellent. Well, Leif, thank you
1:18:45again for for your time. You're
1:18:47watching. Hope you're enjoyed. Make sure
1:18:48to leave a like down below if you are
1:18:51and we'll be right back. Take care.

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